Andrew Parasiliti, president of the award-winning news site Al-Monitor, interviews newsmakers each week from the US and Middle East about the latest news and trends in the region, with additional commentary from Al-Monitor’s ‘on-the-ground’ correspondents. Andrew has been writing about, and traveling in, the Middle East for over three decades, meeting and interviewing the region’s top political and civil society leaders. Since obtaining his PH.D from Johns Hopkins University, he has held appointments at Harvard University, the RAND Corporation, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and as foreign policy adviser to US Senator Chuck Hagel. Andrew writes Al-Monitor’s must read Takeaway and Week in Review columns, and is an adjunct political scientist at RAND and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Makram Rabah, an assistant professor at the American University in Beirut, says that Syria's interim president lacks the power to control his own army and that Washington needs to engage with Syria's new government to help defuse sectarian violence and for peace to prevail in the war-ravaged country.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Starvation, disease, mutilation and death have become the norm for children in Gaza, says Arwa Damon, founder of the INARA charity. She warns that aid workers, journalists and medics are also being targeted, making it nearly impossible to deliver relief to children trapped in a cycle of despair.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Since last week, Turkey has been rocked by mass protests over the jailing of Istanbul's opposition mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, on thinly-evidence corruption and terrorism charges. These protests are widely seen as the most significant challenge to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan since he came to power 22 years ago. Turkey experts Gonul Tol and Lisel Hintz weigh the risks and opportunities for the country's beleaguered democracy.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Russia is seeking to keep its naval bases in Syria, viewing them as a vital strategic asset. Syria's interim president, a hard nosed pragmatist, will likely strike working relations with the Kremlin while trying to defuse tensions with Israel and win over the United States, says the International Crisis Group's Jerome Drevon, who has met Sharaa numerous times.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
The wave of sectarian violence that gripped Syria last week has marred the image of the country's new Islamist president, Ahmad al-Sharaa.Could the government have done more to prevent it? French academic Fabrice Balanche says it absolutely could have.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Israel's expansionist policy in Syria's Golan Heights and its support for the Druze and Kurdish minorities are justified by Israeli officials on the grounds that they are protecting natural allies and countering Turkish influence. Yet Syria expert Joshua Landis says Israel's actions are having the opposite effect, making Syria's new Islamist leaders more dependent on Turkey for their protection.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Private military contractors are changing the nature of warfare as national governments outsource fighting to mercenaries, especially in the Middle East and Africa. None has elicited as much interest as Russia's Wagner Group and its founder Yevgheny Prighozin with others following in his footsteps, as author John Lechner explains.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Since April last year, the government of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been in talks with imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan. The goal is to get his organization to end its 40 year-long armed campaign against the Turkish state. But one of Turkey's demands, that Ocalan's concessions extend to northeast Syria where a PKK-linked group has been in control since 2012, is unrealistic, says Kurdish Peace Institute director Giran Ozcan.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
The surprise fall of Iran's close regional ally Bashar al-Assad has dealt a huge blow to Tehran's so called axis of resistance running through Iraq onto Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran's loss is Turkey's gain and Tehran is increasingly worried about rising Turkish influence, says Hamidreza Azizi.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Iran is badly weakened by Israel's pummeling of its Shiite allies in the Levant. Yet, unlike during Trump's first presidential term, Gulf powerhouse Saudi Arabia has been mending relations with the Islamic Republic. Vali Nasr, a leading expert on Iran, says there is room for cautious optimism for nuclear talks to resume.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Nikolaos van Dam, the Netherland's former Syria envoy and an acclaimed Arabist who has authored several books on the country, says Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria's new ruler and the leader of the al-Qaeda offshoot Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, ought to be supported by Western governments.The ambassador notes that the risk of renewed conflict remains high in Syria and that Sharaa must be taken at his word when he says he plans to establish inclusive, democratic rule in the country, because there is no alternative.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Turkey expert Gallia Lindenstrauss, who is a senior fellow at Israel's National Institute of Security Studies, says Israel is concerned about Turkey's expanding influence in Syria with the rise to power of the Al-Qaeda offshoot Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.With thousands of Turkish troops deployed in Syria, Lindenstrauss says an accidental confrontation with Israeli forces there could trigger a broader conflagration amid worsening ties between the former allies.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Cengiz Candar is a lawmaker for the pro-Kurdish DEM party in Turkey who has spent long years in the Middle East. Candar outlines how Israel has hugely benefited from the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, while Turkey — another big winner — is seeking to thwart Kurdish aspirations.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
French academic Fabrice Balanche, who has written extensively on Syria and just returned from a ten-day -long trip there, believes Turkey is paying a high stakes poker game in Syria through its backing of a Salafist group that has made stunning advances against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Jim Jeffrey, the director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center and former Syria Envoy under the first Trump administration, says in his new term Trump could pull US forces out of Syria.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Human Rights Watch's Turkey director, Emma Sinclair Webb, analyzes new legislation targeting journalists and civil society and the ouster of Kurdish mayors. The new wave of repression is being greeted with silence by Turkey's western allies.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
The government of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is holding exploratory talks with Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party or PKK, to end the 40-year-old Kurdish conflict. Turkey has made clear its expectation that the PKK lay down its arms and end the conflict. What would it take for the PKK to comply? Giran Ozcan, executive director of the Kurdish Peace Institute in Washington, believes Turkey needs to grant its estimated 16 million Kurds basic rights such as being able to teach and learn their long banned mother tongue if the effort is to succeed.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Fethullah Gulen, the Sunni Muslim Cleric who was accused of engineering the failed coup to overthrow Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has died in self imposed exile in the United States. Once feted as a moderate who steered generations of young Muslims away from radicalism, Gulen did untold harm to Turkey's fragile democracy, says Turkish analyst Selim Koru.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
The risk of a region-wide war is growing as Israel carries out ground and air operations against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and beyond. Hezbollah and Iran have been irreversibly weakened in this latest cycle of violence, argues scholar Lina Khatib of Chatham House. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Jim Muir, one of the most seasoned Western journalists in the Middle East, has been covering the Arab-Israeli conflict for almost 50 years. Muir tells Al-Monitor that the latest round of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah is unlike any other in the past, with unforeseeable consequences for both sides, as well for Lebanon and Iran.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
On Sept. 9, Cyrus and the United States inked a defense cooperation agreement, sparking angry reactions from Turkey. The agreement was signed as Turkey's relations with Washington remain essentially on the rocks. Turkey charges that the United States is using Cyprus to ship weapons to Israel, an accusation that Cyprus denies. However, what goes on at two sovereign British bases on the island remains unknown to the public.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Few know the true story behind Syria's support for Kurdish militants fighting Turkey. Turkish academic Behlul Ozkan explains how and why Turkey's pro-military rulers backed an Islamist uprising in the early 1980s against the regime of Hafez al-Assad, leading Damascus to open its doors to the PKK.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
While little is known about Vice President Kamala Harris' views on the Middle East and on the world in general, there is far more information available about the approach of her top foreign policy adviser, Phil Gordon, who will likely land a prime position in a future Harris administration if she wins in November. Omer Taspinar, a professor of national security studies at the National War College, has worked with Gordon, co-authoring a book on Turkey with him. He shares his insights on the likely shape of Middle East policy should Harris be elected in November.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Russia's national security chief, Sergei Shoigu, traveled to Tehran this week where he met with Iran's new president, Masoud Pezeskhian. Coming on the heels of the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil, Shoigu's visit prompted a flurry of speculation about the Kremlin's intentions. Iran has vowed revenge for the attack which it has blamed on Israel. Hanna Notte, head of the Eurasia program at the James Martin Center for Nuclear Non Proliferation Studies, unpacks the stakes. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Hamidreza Azizi is a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. He tells Al-Monitor that Iran's proxies in Yemen, Iraq and Syria will likely carry out a coordinated campaign to avenge Haniyeh's death and that the chances of a ceasefire in Gaza have been dealt a crippling blow. The risk of a full-blown regional conflict is rising.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Ezgi Basaran is a Turkish journalist turned academic who has written a new book examining the outsize influence of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party over Tunisia's Islamist Ennahda party and Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood party. While both have suffered huge setbacks, Basaran argues they will re-emerge and that the pursuit of power will trump ideology.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
The election victory of heart surgeon Masoud Pezeshkian has aroused hopes and doubts in Iran and beyond. He is a Reformist who says he will be more lenient towards women and will seek to reduce tensions with the West. Yet, his record is spotty. While defying hawkish clerics on some critical occasions, he has stood up for them on others. As with all else in Iran, deciphering the real Pezeshkian is no easy task, says Iranian academic Arash Azizi. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Washington is piling pressure on Azerbaijan to sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan that would allow Turkey to normalize its relations with Armenia. But Azerbaijan is resisting calls to finalize a draft peace agreement and wants further concessions from Armenia. Benjamin Poghosyan, a senior research fellow at the ARPI think tank in Yerevan, explains why.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Iran is due to hold presidential elections on June 28 that were precipitated by the death in May in a helicopter crash of former President Ebrahim Raisi. Although real power is held by the country's supreme leader, presidents can make a difference in the daily lives of Iranians and even in foreign policy should the supreme leader agree. The candidacy of a Western-friendly heart surgeon with popular appeal is giving hope that positive changes might be in store.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
As the Gaza conflict enters its eighth month, Iran stands out as the one country that has succeeded in projecting further as a result. Israel is more vulnerable than it's ever been and the United States must engage more smartly in the Middle East to protect its interests, argues Steven Cook, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of “The End of Ambition: America's Past, Present, and Future in the Middle East.”See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
The Kurdish-led administration in northeast Syria is planning to hold landmark local elections in the majority Kurdish and Arab areas under its control. Syrian-Kurdish leader Saleh Muslim says "radical democracy" will be in play as people elect their leaders at every level of local governance, with a man and a woman selected for each post.Turkey has threatened to prevent the elections on the grounds they pose a threat to its national security. The Biden administration has advised against the polls, saying the conditions for conducting them are not ripe.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Kristin Diwan, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, unpacks Kuwait's dramatic turn last week when the country's ruling Emir suspended the parliament and parts of the constitution.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Greek academic Ioannis Grigoriadis believes that no major breakthroughs should be expected during Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis' visit. Keeping the channels of communication open and building on the positive agenda promoted by both sides is, however, crucial to averting conflict, notably over Cyprus.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Former Turkish Prime Minister and leader of the pro-Islamic Future Party Ahmet Davutoglu met with Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Khaled Meshal this week and shared their conditions for peace with Al-Monitor. Davutoglu sharply criticized the governments of Turkey and Arab states, saying they had done close to nothing for Gaza.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Emma Tsurkov insists that the best way to get Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to make good on his pledges to secure her sister's freedom is for the United States to wield the threat of military sanctions.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Iran's weekend attack on Israel in response to an Israeli attack on its diplomatic mission in Syria has put an already explosive region on edge. Israel has vowed to retaliate and Iran says should it do so its own response will be massive. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Following The secular opposition's historic win in the March 31 elections, many say that Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu is now confirmed as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's chief rival in the next elections that are due to be held in four years. However, the reality is far more complex. Much will hinge on whether Erdogan succeeds in dividing the opposition yet again. Moreover commentator Kadri Gursel notes that unless the current one man presidential system is diluted, whoever takes charge is likely to become an autocrat. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
This month marks the 13th anniversary of the start of the Syrian conflict. French academic Fabrice Balanche says that across the Middle East the West is steadily losing ground to Russia, China and Iran as a result of its failed policy in Syria. The Kurds are among the biggest losers, he adds.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Turkey's opposition is in disarray since its humiliating defeat in last year's presidential and parliamentary elections. However, the opposition has what some say is a final chance to challenge his power in local elections that will be held on March 31. Turkey analyst Selim Koru says with the opposition now bloc fractured, Istanbul's secular mayor Ekrem Imamoglu will face an uphill battle to defeat Erdogan again.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
There has been an alarming spike in anti-Semitic attacks in the UK since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing nearly 1,200 Israeli citizens. Hate crimes monitor Dave Rich and historian Andrew Apostolou unpack the dynamics. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
As the conflict in Gaza rages on, Palestinian children are dying by the thousands while many others are horribly injured. Hospitals are under unremittingly attacked by Israel forces and doctors struggle to treat the wounded.Seema Jilani, a rare American doctor to make it into the Gaza Strip, has been telling the world about what she has seen and is facing a backlash for doing so.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Turkey blocked Sweden's NATO membership for nine months saying Stockholm needed to curb anti-Turkish groups it classifies as terrorists. Those demands were widely dismissed as a foil for Ankara's real aim, to get the United States Congress to authorize the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey. Yet, some of Turkey's concerns were legitimate, says Sweden's Former Foreign Minister Ann Linde.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
The Islamic State carried out an attack against a Roman Catholic Church in Istanbul on Jan. 28, killing one person. In its statement claiming responsibility for the attack the group referred to Turkey as "Wilayat al Turkiya" — or its "Turkish province" — sending a chilling message that it views the country among its prime targets. Any further such attacks would deal a big blow to Turkey's multi-billion dollar tourism industry in the midst of economic turbulence.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
The deaths of three US servicemen Sunday in an attack by an Iran-backed Shiite militia at a base wedged between Syria and Jordan has raised the specter of a direct confrontation between the United States and Iran like never before. But are things as black and white as they seem? Does Iran have full control over the Shiite militias that are part of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces created to fight the Islamic State? A US withdrawal from Iraq and Syria would help resuscitate the Islamic State which recently killed hundreds of civilians inside Iran. What is the end game? See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Syrians for Truth and Justice and the European Center for Constitutional and Human Rights have filed a complaint with German federal prosecutors against Turkish-backed Sunni factions they accuse of war crimes against Kurds in Afrin.These include ethnic cleansing, rape and looting. German prosecutors have convicted individuals accused of torturing fellow Syrians on behalf of the Assad regime. They hope similar judgements can be handed down to the Turkish-backed militias, some of which are already under sanctions for war crimes by the United States.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Tensions between the United States and Iran-backed Houthi rebels continue to escalate in the Red Sea, disrupting maritime traffic in a key shipping lane. A barrage of US airstrikes against the Houthis shows little signs of slowing them down. The Shiite rebels insist they won't stop targeting merchant ships and US naval vessels unless Israel ends its war against Palestinians in Gaza. Kuwaiti academic Bader Al-Saif tell Al-Monitor they should be taken at their word. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
The assassination of Hamas' number two man in Beirut on Tuesday has deepened concerns that the conflict in Gaza will engulf neighboring Lebanon.However, Esther Solomon, the editor-in-chief of Haaretz English, dismisses the idea that Israel wants to provoke a war with Iran that would drag in the United States.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has openly sided with Hamas in its ongoing conflict with Israel in Gaza, making him a hero on the Arab street. However, his vocal support for the group that is designated as terrorists by the United States will likely further strain relations between Ankara and Washington. It will also make it harder for Turkey to normalize relations with Israel in the future, according to Alan Makovsky, a leading analyst of Turkish affairs in Washington.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
As Israel's war to unseat Hamas in the Gaza Strip grinds into its second month, the former top US military commander in the Middle East, Gen. Joseph Votel (ret.), says the hardest fighting is yet to come. While the IDF appears to be implementing some of Washington's advice by allowing for the flow of humanitarian aid and civilian evacuation corridors, there remains real risk that Iran-backed militias throughout the region may escalate reckless attacks that could draw the United States into another war. Ultimately, there must be a postwar political solution for Gaza and a re-calibration of US military presence in the Middle East to deter Iran, Votel argues.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Iran is doing its best to avoid getting dragged into the conflict in Gaza. Its strategy of deterrence through its proxies appears to have backfired and the United States is more present than ever in the region, says Iran analyst Hamidreza Azizi.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
In another special edition of the podcast, we have the audio from the fourth edition of our live Q&A webinar series on the Israel-Hamas war, where Al-Monitor's Columnist Ali Hashem, Senior News Editor Joyce Karam, and Palestine Columnist Daoud Kuttab discussed the conflict's latest developments, including Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah's big speech and calls by US President Joe Biden for a humanitarian pause in the fighting, as well as answered guest questions.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
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