Podcasts about International Crisis Group

Shownotes The nature of peace talks and conflict resolution has radically changed. Historically, most wars end with political settlements, usually the result of formal negotiations. The prototypical modern peace talks were hosted a major or mid-size power that wasn't a party to the conflict, negotiated by professional diplomats and technical experts, and implemented with some international oversight by the United Nations or a group of governments. Recent wars have departed from this script. Negotiations these days occur in all manner of venues. There are secret or semisecret talks by unofficial emissaries, sometimes known as “track two diplomacy.” There are official talks managed by tiny powers like Qatar and Oman, all the way to powerful but new players in the peacemaking space, like China. And official superpower diplomacy in the current era looks nothing like the old: today, the US president's personal lawyer and son in law, with no staff, try to negotiate peace agreements and simultaneously private deals for the Trump Organization. Michael Wahid Hanna has followed many of the peace talks, successful and failed, of recent decades. On this episode of Order from Ashes, he takes stock of how the peace negotiations have changed, and whether we should downgrade our expectations for what diplomacy can  Participants Michael Wahid Hanna is US program director at International Crisis Group. Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International.  Date: Thursday, June 4, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 115

El ultraderechista Abelardo de la Espriella, ganador de la primera vuelta, parte como favorito para vencer al izquierdista Iván Cepeda en el balotaje, según una encuesta de Atlas Intel, la primera tras los comicios: 50.3% contra 42.6% para Cepeda. Además, Trump ofreció su respaldo a De la Espriella, un pronunciamiento que analizamos con Juan Carlos Arenas, profesor del Instituto de Estudios Políticos, y Elizabeth Dickinson, del International Crisis Group. Trump ofreció este martes su apoyo al candidato ultraderechista Abelardo de la Espriella, quien disputará la presidencia de Colombia en la segunda vuelta electoral el 21 de junio, frente al izquierdista Iván Cepeda. El candidato presidencial de la izquierda en Colombia, Iván Cepeda, denunció este miércoles un intento "injerencista" para la segunda vuelta.  Juan Carlos Arenas, profesor del Instituto de Estudios Políticos de la Universidad de Antioquia, también estima efectivamente que esto "es una injerencia indebida en procesos internos en Colombia bajo los estándares de cualquier medición de política internacional". Para este politólogo en Medellín, ese pronunciamiento es "inadecuado", pero parece no sorprenderlo porque, según él, "corresponde con lo que ya se ha venido haciendo en relación con otros actores importantes de la política de Estados Unidos, como María Elvira Salazar [congresista republicana por Florida], el propio Marco Rubio [secretario de Estado de Estados Unidos] y otros líderes políticos de la derecha estadounidense, así como otros líderes de derecha en América Latina, como el presidente Noboa de Ecuador. Se hace público lo que ya se sabía, es decir, un alineamiento de fuerzas políticas de la derecha que, en general, también están muy alineadas con cierta erosión de los derechos y de las garantías democráticas en el subcontinente", subraya. El futuro de las relaciones Colombia - EE.UU.  Al dar su apoyo a Abelardo de la Espriella, Trump mencionó que los resultados de esta elección son muy importantes para el futuro de Colombia y su relación con Estados Unidos. Elizabeth Dickinson, del International Crisis Group, explica por qué el respaldo de Trump puede resonar en el electorado de derecha. "Estados Unidos es, de lejos, la alianza económica más importante para Colombia. Es en ese país a donde van la mayor parte de sus exportaciones internacionales. También hay una inversión estadounidense en Colombia que es muy significativa. Existe una diáspora en Estados Unidos y muchas conexiones, mucho intercambio cultural y, obviamente, la alianza en temas de seguridad, sobre todo en la política contra las drogas, es muy importante para ambos países. Tener la capacidad de compartir, por ejemplo, datos de inteligencia, armar operaciones con información entre ambos, contar con capacidades para realizarlas, el apoyo financiero y también material. Por esta razón, yo sí creo que la importancia de manejar la relación con Estados Unidos tiene un peso con los votantes colombianos, y eso es algo que hay que tener en cuenta", concluye.

Ali Vaez on the fraught negotiations between Washington and Tehran. In late February, the United States and Israel launched a war on Iran—a war that killed the country's supreme leader, closed the Strait of Hormuz, pushed the global economy to the brink, and brought the Middle East closer to all-out conflagration than at any point in a generation. Now, amid a ceasefire that has held without ever being formalized, a draft framework for a comprehensive agreement between Washington and Tehran is reportedly taking shape. The deal that emerges—if it emerges at all—will make clear limits of sanctions pressure, the price of war, and whether transformative diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran is even possible.Ali Vaez is Senior Adviser to the President and Project Director for Iran at the International Crisis Group. He is one of the foremost experts on the Iran nuclear file, having spent the better part of fifteen years in direct contact with Western, regional, and Iranian officials, and among a long list of other achievements he is a co-author of the excellent book How Sanctions Work: Iran and the Impact of Economic Warfare.The Sanctions Age is hosted by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj and Josefine Petrick.To receive an email when new episodes are released, access episode transcripts, and read the hosts reflections on each episode, sign-up for the The Sanctions Age newsletter on Substack: https://www.thesanctionsage.com/

The U.S. Constitution gives Congress the power to declare war. Congress hasn't formally done so since 1942. Brian Finucane, a former State Department lawyer and current senior adviser at the International Crisis Group, joins Matt to make sense of how that happened — and what it means now that the United States is at war with Iran. Brian has spent years arguing, across administrations of both parties, that executive branch war-making has drifted dangerously far from its constitutional moorings. Operation Epic Fury, he contends, is the most consequential test of that argument yet.Subscribe and share to stay ahead in the world of intelligence, global issues, and current affairs.Follow Brian on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/bcfinucane.bsky.socialConnect with Brian on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brian-finucane-15a5652bPlease share this episode using these linksAudio: https://pod.fo/e/41d13cYouTube: https://youtu.be/TUYI1DqO-CAFurther reading"What the Iran War Reveals About the War Powers Resolution and How Congress Can Act" by Tess Bridgeman & Brian Finucane | Just Security: https://www.justsecurity.org/137977/iran-hostilities-war-powers-restart-clock/"On the State Department Memorandum 'Operation Epic Fury and International Law'" by Brian Finucane | Just Security: https://www.justsecurity.org/137097/state-department-epic-fury-international-law/"An Unserious Justification for an Unnecessary War: Assessing the U.S. 'Article 51' Letter to U.N. on Iran War" by Brian Finucane | Just Security: https://www.justsecurity.org/134290/us-article-51-letter-united-nations/"Senate Votes to Take Up Measure to Force Trump to End Iran War" by Megan Mineiro | The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/19/us/politics/senate-iran-war-authorization.html"Bending the Guardrails: U.S. War Powers after 7 October" by Brian Finucane | International Crisis Group: https://www.crisisgroup.org/rpt/united-states/009-bending-guardrails-us-war-powers-after-7-octoberSupport Secrets and SpiesBecome a “Friend of the Podcast” on Patreon for £3/$4: https://www.patreon.com/SecretsAndSpiesBuy merchandise from our shop: https://www.redbubble.com/shop/ap/60934996Buy us a coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/secretsandspiesSubscribe to our YouTube page: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCDVB23lrHr3KFeXq4VU36dgFor more information about the podcast, check out our website: https://secretsandspiespodcast.comConnect with us on social media Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/secretsandspies.bsky.socialInstagram: https://instagram.com/secretsandspiesFacebook: https://facebook.com/secretsandspiesSpoutible: https://spoutible.com/SecretsAndSpiesFollow Chris and Matt on Bluesky:https://bsky.app/profile/chriscarrfilm.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/mattfulton.netSecrets and Spies is produced by Films & Podcasts LTD: https://filmsandpodcasts.co.uk/Music by Andrew R. BirdUSAF photo by Staff Sgt. Sandra Welch#IranWar #USWarPowers #NationalSecurity Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th, 2022. And despite President Donald Trump's promise to end the conflict on his first day back in office, the two countries are still at war. So far, over 300,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war, compared to roughly 150,000 Ukrainian soldiers. The fighting is brutal, and it seems to keep… going. So how can both sides end this conflict – and what will the U.S. do to help (or hurt) the peace process? To find out, we spoke with Lucian Kim. He's a senior Ukraine analyst for the International Crisis Group. When we spoke, he had just returned from an 11-day trip to Ukraine.And in headlines, Trump holds off on striking Iran, a data analytics firm unveils just how much several Polymarket accounts have made betting almost exclusively on U.S. military operations, and Trump's approval rating continues to dip.Show Notes: Check out Lucian's book – https://tinyurl.com/ytkkh6d3 Call Congress – 202-224-3121 Subscribe to the What A Day Newsletter – https://tinyurl.com/y4y2e9jy What A Day – YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@whatadaypodcast Follow us on Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/crookedmedia/ For a transcript of this episode, please visit crooked.com/whataday

This week on Sinica, I chat with Ali Wyne, Senior Research and Advocacy Adviser for U.S.-China at the International Crisis Group, just hours after President Trump's plane left Chinese airspace at the end of a three-day state visit to Beijing. We dig into the new framework Xi Jinping put on the table — what Beijing is calling 中美建设性战略稳定关系, a "constructive China-U.S. relationship of strategic stability" — and ask whether it's a genuine doctrine of mutual restraint or a rhetorical tripwire that future American moves can be characterized as having violated. Ali and I work through Foreign Minister Wang Yi's morning-after media briefing, including his striking claim that the U.S. side now "does not accept" Taiwan independence — a notable shift from the standard American formulation. We talk about what Trump actually said on Taiwan in his Air Force One press gaggle, the gap between Trump's account of Xi's private remarks on Iran and what Beijing is willing to say publicly, and whether AI can serve as a durable basis for cooperation coming out of the summit. We also turn to the American domestic side: the bind Democrats find themselves in trying to critique Trump's China engagement without out-hawking him, the generational data showing a striking gap in American attitudes toward China that transcends partisan division, and the question of when that shift in mass opinion actually starts to bite on policy.Full podcast page with timestamps and links forthcoming! Just wanted to get this out quickly.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Turkey's role in Somalia is under growing scrutiny, with the East African country embroiled in controversy over elections and Israel stepping up efforts to challenge Turkey in the region. Over the last two years Turkey has ramped up its economic and military presence in Somalia, building on decades of development. The East African country is home to Turkey's largest overseas military base and this year it bolstered its military presence, deploying F16 fighter jets and tanks. Turkey is also constructing a space port for its rapidly advancing missile programme, and the two countries have signed agreements to exploit potentially vast energy reserves. But the deepening partnership is proving increasingly controversial, says Omar Mahmood of the International Crisis Group. While five or 10 years ago there would have been "quite high praise" for Turkey's role, that's changed over the last two years. "Some of these [Turkish] contracts and projects have tipped into [a much] greater scale and that has raised questions" he noted. Turkey boosts Mali defence ties after separatist and jihadist attacks Election dispute A looming constitutional crisis is adding to the scrutiny of Turkey's role in Somalia. The Somali government is insisting it has one year left of its electoral mandate, while the opposition claims elections should be held in May. "The core issue is that the political elite are infighting about the system,” explains Mahmood. “So anytime that happens, those who are against the government wind up complaining and then also looking at who is supporting the Somali government." Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's authorisation of $30 million in cash aid to the Somali government, which coincided with an April visit to Istanbul by his Somali counterpart, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, drew criticism from both the Somali and Turkish opposition. Famine looms in Somalia amid drought, dwindling aid and Middle East war “Turkey providing cash aid to the Somali government sparked the debate,” said African studies professor Elem Eyrice Tepeciklioglu, of the Social Sciences University of Ankara. “It seems some people think Turkey supports the ruling government, and provides support to the ruling government because they benefit from the relationship.” Ankara has strongly refuted accusations of interference in Somali politics. However, it could be paying the price for being too focused on Mogadishu in the past, given the diverse nature of Somalia's regions. “Turkey has started to learn from its mistakes,” said Tepeciklioglu. “They have started to increase their involvement with different states, with different regions, and have started to increase their engagement with local people as well.” Rivalry in the region Turkey is also facing a growing challenge in the region from Israel, which in April appointed an ambassador to Somaliland – becoming the first country to recognise the breakaway republic, which seceded from Somalia in 1991. “It's been useful probably for [Israel] to assert themselves against Turkey in an area where Turkey has firmly planted its flag,” said Norman Ricklefs of geopolitical consultancy, the NAMEA Group. Israeli-Turkish relations remain strained over Ankara's support of Hamas and Israel's war against Gaza and Lebanon. The Israeli government has indicated it is considering a military presence in Somaliland, to counter the threat posed by the Houthis in Yemen.  “I don't think we're at that stage yet,” said Ricklefs. "But any Israeli military presence in Somaliland is going to raise angst amongst the neighbours – Somalia, Egypt, Turkey and potentially Saudi Arabia. Obviously, it's going to be destabilising.” The risky calculations behind Israel's recognition of Somaliland The Horn of Africa could be a potential new flashpoint if Israel deploys military assets in Somaliland, agrees international relations professor Serhat Guvenc of Istanbul's Kadir Has University. "The potential for conflict between Israel and Turkey is really high, because they're pursuing diametrically opposed objectives. If relations further deteriorate, then we may see tensions running high between the two countries because they would be in almost physical contact. Their military assets may run the risk of having dangerous encounters with each other." Israeli-Turkish rivalry in the region threatens to exacerbate existing tensions in an already volatile area. For Turkey, which has invested more than €1 billion in development in Somalia over the past decade, and is also eyeing major financial returns from its energy exploration in Somalian waters, the stakes are high.

Donald Trump is in Beijing. As if tensions between the US and China haven't already been rising for years, this visit comes during Trump's war in Iran, rising oil prices, and a serious democratic crisis in America. Does Trump even have a strategy here? What role will the war in Iran play? Ali Wyne of the International Crisis Group joins David Rothkopf and Rosa Brooks to discuss the US-China summit and what we can (or cannot) expect from our president. Looking for More from the DSR Network? Click Here: https://linktr.ee/deepstateradio Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Donald Trump is in Beijing. As if tensions between the US and China haven't already been rising for years, this visit comes during Trump's war in Iran, rising oil prices, and a serious democratic crisis in America. Does Trump even have a strategy here? What role will the war in Iran play? Ali Wyne of the International Crisis Group joins David Rothkopf and Rosa Brooks to discuss the US-China summit and what we can (or cannot) expect from our president. Looking for More from the DSR Network? Click Here: https://linktr.ee/deepstateradio Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

La Amazonía está siendo saqueada. La selva tropical más grande del mundo se enfrenta ahora a un nuevo depredador: el crimen organizado. El aumento del consumo de cocaína y la creciente demanda de oro y otros minerales han convertido a la región en un campo de batalla entre poderosos grupos criminales de Brasil, Colombia y Ecuador. Así lo denuncia un informe del International Crisis Group. Lo aborda este reportaje de Francisco Carrión.Escuchar audio

En Chile casi una de cada cinco personas no puede pagar una alimentación sana y más de 500.000 sufren hambre severa. Y todo, cuando millones de kilos de comida se desperdician anualmente. En este contexto, hemos querido conocer la labor que realiza Red de Alimentos, el banco de alimentos de Chile, que lleva15 años rescatando y distribuyendo productos esenciales entre la población. Charlamos con Alicia Hidalgo, gerente general de Red de Alimentos. También hablamos del expresidente boliviano Evo Morales, declarado en rebeldía por no acudir ante la justicia; de la visita de alto nivel de Daniel Noboa a Washington; y de las multitudinarias protestas en Venezuela o Argentina. Además, ponemos el foco en el crimen organizado que se extiende por la Amazonía con la ayuda de Bram Ebus, investigador del International Crisis Group en un reportaje que firma Francisco Carrión.Escuchar audio

C'est le titre d'un long article de Jeune Afrique qui revient heure par heure, ville par ville, sur les attaques qui ont ensanglanté le pays samedi dernier. « Du nord au centre du Mali, au moins six des plus importantes villes du pays, dont la capitale, Bamako, se réveillent ce samedi 25 avril aux prises avec une offensive massive et coordonnée d'une ampleur inédite depuis le début du conflit, en 2012. Partout, relate le site panafricain, des milliers d'hommes en armes déferlent dans les rues, prenant pour cible les symboles du pouvoir et de l'armée : casernes, commissariats, gouvernorats, aéroports… Les combats se livrent en pleine rue, parfois à l'arme lourde et au mortier. » Kati: au cœur du pouvoir Et les djihadistes du JNIM et les rebelles du FLA, dans une alliance inédite, osent même frapper au cœur du pouvoir militaire, dans Kati, la ville garnison à la lisière de Bamako. « Aux premières lueurs du jour, poursuit Jeune Afrique, un homme au volant d'un véhicule kamikaze bourré d'explosifs fonce sur la résidence du ministre de la Défense, Sadio Camara, et enclenche sa charge. Le souffle est si puissant que tout le bâtiment s'effondre, emportant une mosquée attenante et près d'une trentaine d'autres maisons. Le ministre, sa deuxième femme, l'un de ses enfants, son neveu, ainsi que les gardes présents, sont tués. » Les combats feront rage à Kati toute la journée. « C'est dans ce contexte particulièrement instable que Modibo Koné – patron de la Sécurité d'État, les services de renseignement – aurait été blessé », relate encore Jeune Afrique. Et « l'inquiétude ne cesse de grandir au sein de l'armée. Si le décès du général Camara est confirmé, la situation n'en reste pas moins confuse. La même interrogation concerne Assimi Goïta, dont le domicile se trouve à quelques centaines de mètres de celui de Sadio Camara ». Quid d'Assimi Goïta ? En effet, « incertitude sur le sort d'Assimi Goïta », titre Afrik.com. « Depuis le déclenchement des attaques, aucune apparition publique ni communication officielle du chef de la junte n'a été enregistrée. Selon des sources sécuritaires, il aurait été exfiltré vers un site sécurisé, probablement un camp des forces spéciales à proximité de la capitale. Est-il toujours en vie ? » Hier, c'est le premier ministre, le Général Abdoulaye Maïga, qui s'est exprimé. « Il a expliqué, rapporte Sahel Tribune à Bamako, que les assaillants avaient pour objectif de semer la peur et le doute, de briser la cohésion nationale et d'affaiblir la détermination collective. Selon lui, “ces objectifs ont échoué“, car la population n'a pas eu peur, la cohésion nationale s'est renforcée et la détermination est plus grande que jamais. »   Pour sa part, l'AES, l'Alliance des États du Sahel, qui regroupe le Mali, le Burkina Faso et le Niger, a dénoncé hier un « complot monstrueux soutenu par des ennemis de la lutte de libération du Sahel. » Le communiqué, publié notamment par le site Maliweb, affirme que « le dessein macabre de ces bourreaux de la paix a été mis en échec grâce à une riposte professionnelle, courageuse et déterminée par les forces armées maliennes ». « Affligeante faillite » Ledjely, à Conakry, s'inscrit en faux : « Les autorités maliennes doivent accepter de voir la réalité en face, s'exclame le site guinéen. Car, au regard de leur affligeante faillite incarnée par la tragédie que le pays a vécu samedi, elles doivent nous épargner les excuses et boucs émissaires habituels. A minima, elles doivent juste admettre leur échec. (…) Un échec qui ne résulte pas nécessairement d'une supériorité militaire de l'ennemi, relève encore Ledjely. Mais qui est aussi et surtout celui de la méthode et de l'approche de la junte malienne. Une junte qui travaille davantage à la confiscation du pouvoir qu'à l'authentique lutte contre l'insécurité. » Vers une guerre civile ? Enfin que peut-il se passer maintenant au Mali ? Pour Michaël Ayari, analyste pour International Crisis Group, interrogé par Le Point Afrique, on pourrait assister à « une progression graduelle de l'emprise djihadiste, à la multiplication d'alliances locales opportunistes et à une tendance des acteurs extérieurs à privilégier des réponses militaires. Cette dynamique pourrait en outre aggraver les fractures communautaires et conduire à une véritable guerre civile ».  De plus, poursuit Michaël Ayari, « le principal risque est la régionalisation du conflit malien. Le Mali partage de longues frontières avec l'Algérie et la Mauritanie ; toute dégradation dans le Nord peut provoquer des déplacements de populations, des incidents transfrontaliers, des frappes mal contrôlées ou des tensions militaires directes ». 

Greg Brady spoke to Michael Kovrig, former Canadian diplomat and a senior advisor at the International Crisis Group about ‘China is not a solution' to Canada's problems with the U.S. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Joe Cirincione, sitting in for Bill, interviews Middle East Expert Rob Malley. Rob served as a senior Middle East official under Presidents Clinton, Obama and Biden. Under Obama, he was one of the top negotiators on the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal. Under Biden, he served as the special envoy for Iran. He is now a lecturer at Yale University, the former president of the International Crisis Group, and the co-author with Hussein Agha of a new book, Tomorrow Is Yesterday: Life, Death, and the Pursuit of Peace in Israel/Palestine. They talk about the current U.S.-Israel war with Iran, arguing that while U.S. and Israeli military power is overwhelming, political objectives are unclear and Iran retains asymmetric capabilities, including disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Malley says Trump's public claims about Iranian concessions and battlefield success are unreliable and may fuel escalation, while reporting suggests Iran still has significant missile and small-boat capacity. He contends the war is unlawful, unnecessary, and economically disruptive, and that promised goals—destroying Iran's nuclear program, missiles, drones, or achieving regime change—have not been met and would not justify the war even if they had. Malley traces how Trump was encouraged by Netanyahu and others, but ultimately owns the decision, and argues diplomacy like the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) was the only approach that contained Iran's nuclear program. They discuss shifting Democratic opposition toward calling the war illegal, and Malley briefly connects these themes to his book Tomorrow Is Yesterday: Life, Death, and the Pursuit of Peace in Israel/Palestine. on Israel-Palestine and U.S. misunderstandings of what motivates other peoples. In Israel, Palestine and now Iran. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

On this week's episode, Israel Policy Forum Policy Advisor and Tel Aviv-based journalist Neri Zilber hosts Naysan Rafati, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group. They discuss the latest in the fragile ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran, what a deal could actually look like, what happens if negotiations collapse and fighting resumes, which side may benefit more from not concluding a deal, the role of the Strait of Hormuz, the current political and economic state of the Islamic Republic, and more. Support the showFollow us on Instagram, Twitter/X, and Bluesky, and subscribe to our email list here.

08:00 — Dean Baker is Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research. 33:00 — Heiko Wimmen is Project Director for the Iraq/Syria/Lebanon project at the International Crisis Group. 45:00 — Scout helped organize the April 2024 Google sit-in protest, as a member of No Tech for Aparthied and is now co-hosting Techlash — a nine-hour livestream and fundraiser on Saturday, April 18th spotlighting Big Tech's complicity in ICE surveillance, genocide, and oligarchy, while raising funds for the 50 Google workers fired for demanding accountability. The post Housing, Inflation and Jobs in the US War Economy; Plus, Lebanon and Israel Ceasefire Talks; And, “Fired 50” Google Employees Organizing Against War in Gaza Plan “Techlash” appeared first on KPFA.

Shownotes American policy has not kept up with the punishing realities unleashed by the war President Donald Trump started with Iran.  Iran and the United States announced a truce, even as they're still fighting to control shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – and more tellingly, Israel accelerated its attacks on Lebanon the day after the truce supposedly took effect. A similar disconnect is at play in the negotiations between two powers with opaque decision-making processes and an apparent high tolerance for ambiguity and instability. Associated Press correspondent Kareem Chehayeb joins Order from Ashes from Lebanon, with a bracing report on the staggering harm to Lebanese society. In the second segment of the podcast, Michael Wahid Hanna from Crisis Group takes stock of the tremendous costs to the world and to the US of Trump's unjustified war of choice, and what we've learned about how the US government is making decisions. Participants Kareem Chehayeb is a correspondent with the Associated Press in Lebanon. Michael Wahid Hanna is the U.S. program director at International Crisis Group. Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International.  Date: Tuesday, April 14, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 108

Venezuela está bajo tutela de Estados Unidos, pero el chavismo sigue presente y activo. Este viernes fue la juramentación de un fiscal general abiertamente afín al chavismo, y en la misma jornada fue aprobada una ley minera que abre el sector a capitales privados, un giro contrario al chavismo. Cuando se cumplen este lunes 100 días de la captura de Nicolás Maduro, hablamos de la situación en el país con Renata Segura, responsable de América Latina en el International Crisis Group. RFI: ¿Cómo describir el régimen que encabeza hoy la presidenta Delcy Rodríguez? Renata Segura: Los escenarios peores hacia futuro han sido evitados, pero lo que no hemos visto todavía es una materialización de los beneficios de la intervención para los venezolanos. Uno de los grandes riesgos que había era que se intentara hacer un cambio de régimen total por vía de la fuerza y que eso generara mucha violencia, incluso una guerra civil en Venezuela. Porque no hubo un cambio de régimen, digamos, ese riesgo se perdió. Y sí hemos visto de alguna manera una especie de apertura para la sociedad civil y para la oposición en Venezuela. Yo creo que no podemos decir que ha habido un cambio significativo. No creo que estamos viendo una transición hacia la democracia, pero creo que lo que muchos venezolanos están sintiendo es algo de optimismo sobre la posibilidad de que eso se dé. RFI: ¿Tienen algo que ver en este optimismo las liberaciones de presos políticos? Si bien permanecen en las cárceles venezolanas unos 500, casi 650 han sido liberados. Renata Segura: Sin duda alguna, la liberación de los presos políticos y el cierre de ciertas prisiones donde tradicionalmente había habido muchas torturas y violaciones de derechos humanos, como el Helicoide, es quizás, digamos, la muestra más importante de cambio en términos de represión, y no quiero quitarle para nada la importancia a eso. Lo que no ha cambiado, sin embargo, es el sistema represivo en sí mismo: sigue activo, digamos. No están reprimiendo a la gente de la manera como la estábamos viendo antes, pero sigue allí y pudiera activarse si fuera necesario. Entonces, en ese sentido, podemos ver algo positivo en que hay una modificación, digamos, de la posición política del gobierno, pero institucionalmente existe el régimen todavía de represión y podría usarse, si lo deseara el Gobierno.

Venezuela está bajo tutela de Estados Unidos, pero el chavismo sigue presente y activo. Este viernes fue la juramentación de un fiscal general abiertamente afín al chavismo, y en la misma jornada fue aprobada una ley minera que abre el sector a capitales privados, un giro contrario al chavismo. Cuando se cumplen este lunes 100 días de la captura de Nicolás Maduro, hablamos de la situación en el país con Renata Segura, responsable de América Latina en el International Crisis Group. RFI: ¿Cómo describir el régimen que encabeza hoy la presidenta Delcy Rodríguez? Renata Segura: Los escenarios peores hacia futuro han sido evitados, pero lo que no hemos visto todavía es una materialización de los beneficios de la intervención para los venezolanos. Uno de los grandes riesgos que había era que se intentara hacer un cambio de régimen total por vía de la fuerza y que eso generara mucha violencia, incluso una guerra civil en Venezuela. Porque no hubo un cambio de régimen, digamos, ese riesgo se perdió. Y sí hemos visto de alguna manera una especie de apertura para la sociedad civil y para la oposición en Venezuela. Yo creo que no podemos decir que ha habido un cambio significativo. No creo que estamos viendo una transición hacia la democracia, pero creo que lo que muchos venezolanos están sintiendo es algo de optimismo sobre la posibilidad de que eso se dé. RFI: ¿Tienen algo que ver en este optimismo las liberaciones de presos políticos? Si bien permanecen en las cárceles venezolanas unos 500, casi 650 han sido liberados. Renata Segura: Sin duda alguna, la liberación de los presos políticos y el cierre de ciertas prisiones donde tradicionalmente había habido muchas torturas y violaciones de derechos humanos, como el Helicoide, es quizás, digamos, la muestra más importante de cambio en términos de represión, y no quiero quitarle para nada la importancia a eso. Lo que no ha cambiado, sin embargo, es el sistema represivo en sí mismo: sigue activo, digamos. No están reprimiendo a la gente de la manera como la estábamos viendo antes, pero sigue allí y pudiera activarse si fuera necesario. Entonces, en ese sentido, podemos ver algo positivo en que hay una modificación, digamos, de la posición política del gobierno, pero institucionalmente existe el régimen todavía de represión y podría usarse, si lo deseara el Gobierno.

This episode with David Mora examines the evolving landscape of organised crime in Mexico, moving beyond narratives focused solely on drug trafficking to explore the broader systems of control, violence, and economic extraction that underpin cartel activity. We discuss how criminal groups have diversified across sectors, why strategies targeting cartel leaders have often led to fragmentation rather than stability, and how territorial control enables expansion into activities such as extortion and migrant smuggling.David Mora is the Mexico Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group, where he researches organised crime, violence, corruption, and conflict dynamics. His work combines fieldwork, investigative reporting, and policy analysis to understand how criminal groups operate across different regions of Mexico. He has reported for Vice News, NBC News, ProPublica, and The Atlantic, covering issues including cartel dynamics, migration, and governance.The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you're a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter.The International Risk Podcast is sponsored by Conducttr, a realistic crisis exercise platform. Conducttr offers crisis exercising software for corporates, consultants, humanitarian, and defence & security clients. Visit Conducttr to learn more.Dominic Bowen is the host of The International Risk Podcast and Europe's leading expert on international risk and crisis management. As Head of Strategic Advisory and Partner at one of Europe's leading risk management consulting firms, Dominic advises CEOs, boards, and senior executives across the continent on how to prepare for uncertainty and act with intent. He has spent decades working in war zones, advising multinational companies, and supporting Europe's business leaders. Dominic is the go-to business advisor for leaders navigating risk, crisis, and strategy; trusted for his clarity, calmness under pressure, and ability to turn volatility into competitive advantage. Dominic equips today's business leaders with the insight and confidence to lead through disruption and deliver sustained strategic advantage.Subscribe for all our updates!Tell us what you liked!

Today on the show, the war with Iran shows no signs of slowing. President Trump took to Truth Social to threaten Iran into opening the Strait of Hormuz. This came after the successful conclusion of a high-stakes mission to rescue a stranded airman from an F-15 jet Iran shot down Friday. Fareed speaks with Richard Haass, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, and Zanny Minton Beddoes, editor-in-chief of The Economist, about the recent developments and where the war might go from here. Then, many of the Iranian regime's top leaders have been killed since the start of the war. Fareed is joined by the International Crisis Group's Ali Vaez to discuss what Iran's current leaders might be thinking, and if they are more likely than before to pursue a nuclear bomb. Finally, in the minds of many, the Islamic Revolution of 1979 dominates Iranian history. But the British-Iranian historian Ali Ansari tells Fareed that you must look further back to truly understand one of the world's oldest civilizations. GUESTS: Zanny Minton-Beddoes (@zannymb), Richard Haass (@RichardHaass), Ali Vaez (@AliVaez), Ali Ansari (@aa51_ansari) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Episode #513: Georgi Engelbrecht of the International Crisis Group links two stories that matter for Myanmar: the Mindanao peace process and Russia's ties to authoritarian partners in Southeast Asia.He begins in the Philippines with what he calls the conflict's “master cleavage” — Muslim communities inside a state seeking self-determination against what they see as colonial intrusion. That grievance was reinforced by migration, exclusion, and underdevelopment until it hardened into decades of separatist war. But the macro narrative never explained everything. Alongside it ran “horizontal violence”: clan feuds, communal disputes, and local power struggles that don't disappear just because a deal is signed.For Engelbrecht, the 2012 and 2014 agreements with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front were a turning point, not an ending. The MILF largely abandoned fighting, the Bangsamoro autonomy project became real, and governing structures took shape after the autonomous region was established in 2019. Yet the region remains “in flux,” with delays, elite rivalries, contested legitimacy, and violence that has shifted rather than vanished.From Mindanao he pivots to Myanmar and what major powers mean by “stability.” Russia's push into Asia, he argues, accelerated with its rupture from the West, as Moscow sought partners and arenas beyond Western leverage. In Myanmar, that lens favors the junta: Russia tends to read rebellion as instability and the central state as the default counterweight. With pipelines for hardware, parts, training, and contact, “Myanmar, because of Russia's help, is not that isolated anymore,” and perceptions of durability become a force multiplier.His wager is blunt: “Russia is banking on victory of the regime.” China, by contrast, cannot afford distance and hedges across actors because Myanmar's disorder sits on its border. As Engelbrecht puts it, “Chechnya [for Russia] is probably what Myanmar is for China.” For Moscow, this becomes part of a broader pattern—how Russia shows it can keep partners standing, stay relevant beyond Western systems, and act as a patron for regimes the West is trying to isolate. For Myanmar, that means the relationship isn't a blueprint for victory—but it can function as scaffolding: not determining the war's shape, but bracing the regime's ability to persist.

What happens if we're underestimating the speed and scale of climate risk? This week on Cleaning Up, Bryony Worthington sits down with Ricken Patel, Principal at Climate Hub & Founder of activist network Avaaz, to explore how to build successful climate movements, and the case for research into geoengineering. Ricken argues that companies have been accidentally geoengineering since the turn of the Industrial Revolution, as a byproduct of their pollution, and says ‘it's crazy' that research into deliberate forms of geoengineering isn't being allowed. Ricken has a long history as a campaigner and activist working in the climate and democracy spaces. He founded Avaaz, an online activism platform, and led successful campaigns around the Paris Agreement and beyond.  He was voted "Ultimate Gamechanger in Politics" by the Huffington Post, listed among the world's top 100 thinkers by Foreign Policy, and named a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum. Patel studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at Oxford, graduating first in his class, and holds a Master's from Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. He went on to live and work on conflict resolution and civilian protection in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Sudan, and Afghanistan for organizations including the International Crisis Group. Together, Bryony and Ricken dive into: Why climate risks may be far greater than current models suggest The cooling effects we're losing as we clamp down on pollution The  case for researching geoengineering How democracy, truth, and climate are deeply intertwined And how to build a successful movement around climate change. Leadership Circle: Cleaning Up is proud to be supported by its Leadership Circle. The members are Actis, Alcazar Energy, Arup, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, Cygnum Capital, Davidson Kempner, Ecopragma Capital, EDP, Eurelectric, the Gilardini Foundation, KKR, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, National Grid, Octopus Energy, Quadrature Climate Foundation, Schneider Electric, SDCL and Wärtsilä. For more information about the Leadership Circle, visit cleaningup.live Links and more: Ricken's website: https://www.rickenpatel.net/ The Climate Hub: https://www.cc-hub.org The State of the Climate 2026 | Ep242: Zeke Hausfather: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzySrSD8vz8 Parasol Lost: https://actuaries.org.uk/news-and-media-releases/news-articles/2026/jan/14-jan-26-parasol-lost-recovery-plan-needed/

As the U.S.-Israel war against Iran enters a second month of conflict, how is Tehran's surviving leadership thinking about an endgame? And how will the conflict reshape geopolitics in the region? Ali Vaez has extensive contacts with Iranian lawmakers and sits down with Ravi Agrawal to discuss the regime's options. Vaez is a project director at the International Crisis Group. Plus, Ravi's Read on how the White House seems to be winning the battle but losing the war.  Ravi Agrawal: Trump Is Losing the War in Iran Robert A. Pape and Ali Vaez: The Iran War Has Escaped Its Authors Zakiyeh Yazdanshenas: What Iran Wants From the War Thomas Juneau: Get Ready for a Weaker but Nastier Iran Menahem Merhavy: Iran's Civilizational Rhetoric Is Hollow Arash Reisinezhad: Iran's Biggest Wartime Advantage is Geography Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Amjad Iraqi, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group and Al-Shabaka policy member, joins our latest episode to explore the regional chaos that the US-Israeli war against Iran has created and the Israeli strategy behind it.

David Wood, Senior Lebanon Analyst at the International Crisis Group

Host Piya Chattopadhyay speaks with political strategists Jordan Leichnitz and Zain Velji, along with pollster James Valcke, about what the federal NDP needs to do to rebound as the party picks a new leaderThe Washington Post data reporter Jeremy Merrill and linguist Naomi Baron explore how artificial intelligence is creeping into our written worldThe Economist's Middle East correspondent Gregg Carlstrom and the International Crisis Group's Ali Vaez unpack the latest news and state of negotiations in the United States and Israel-Iran warMichelle Carr from the University of Montreal's Dream Engineering Lab shares developments in dream and nightmare science and tips on how we can influence our sleeping mind

Cuba is facing one of its most severe humanitarian crises in decades.For years, Cuba relied heavily on oil from Venezuela. Those supplies have largely stopped, contributing to widespread fuel shortages. Electricity blackouts have become increasingly common, disrupting daily life across the country.The United States has blocked fuel shipments to Cuba as part of wider pressure linked to its economic and political policies. Meanwhile, the Cuban government has warned it will resist any external interference in its domestic affairs.With economic strain growing and living conditions worsening, this week on The Inquiry, we're asking: ‘Is the revolution in Cuba over?'ContributorsLillian Guerra, professor of Cuban and Caribbean history at the University of Florida, USRicardo Torres, research fellow at American University, USChristopher Sabatini, senior research fellow for Latin America at Chatham House, UKRenata Segura, programme director for Latin America and the Caribbean at the International Crisis Group, USThe Inquiry gets beyond the headlines to explore the trends, forces and ideas shaping the world, for more episodes, just search 'The Inquiry' wherever you get your BBC Podcasts.Presenter: Tanya Beckett Producer: Matt Toulson Researcher: Evie Yabsley Editor: Tom Bigwood

Cuba is facing one of its most severe humanitarian crises in decades.For years, Cuba relied heavily on oil from Venezuela. Those supplies have largely stopped, contributing to widespread fuel shortages. Electricity blackouts have become increasingly common, disrupting daily life across the country.The United States has blocked fuel shipments to Cuba as part of wider pressure linked to its economic and political policies. Meanwhile, the Cuban government has warned it will resist any external interference in its domestic affairs.With economic strain growing and living conditions worsening, this week on The Inquiry, we're asking: ‘Is the revolution in Cuba over?'Contributors: Lillian Guerra, professor of Cuban and Caribbean history at the University of Florida, US Ricardo Torres, research fellow at American University, US Christopher Sabatini, senior research fellow for Latin America at Chatham House, UK Renata Segura, programme director for Latin America and the Caribbean at the International Crisis Group, USPresenter: Tanya Beckett Producer: Matt Toulson Researcher: Evie Yabsley Editor: Tom Bigwood Technical Producer: Cameron Ward Production Management: Phoebe Lomas and Liam Morrey(Photo: Havana, the capital of Cuba, during a blackout in March 2026. Credit: Yamil Lage/Getty Images)

As the U.S.-Israel war in Iran intensifies, it's hard to imagine Iran was once an important U.S. ally. In this special episode, we lay out key inflection points in the history of US-Iranian relations and how they continue to shape the ongoing conflict today. Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, joins The Excerpt to share his insights and analysis.Let us know what you think of this episode by sending an email to podcasts@usatoday.com. Episode transcript available here. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Arab and Islamic states are calling on Iran to cease attacks, while affirming their right to defend themselves under international law. This comes as the war in the Middle East becomes a war on energy, precipitated by Israel's attack on Iran's South Pars gas field on Wednesday, which is a crucial supply for the country. Oman's Foreign Minister, who brokered the recent nuclear talks, called this an "unlawful war" and the Trump administration's "greatest miscalculation," while US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says they're "on plan." Chuck Hagel was a Republican senator who served as US Defense Secretary under President Obama, and is also a decorated army veteran who fought in the Vietnam War. He joins the show from Washington.   Also on today's show: Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director, International Crisis Group; Sam Adler-Bell, Contributor, New York Magazine     Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

durée : 00:57:40 - Cultures Monde - par : Julie Gacon, Mélanie Chalandon - Si depuis son arrivée au pouvoir en 2019, Kaïs Saïed adopte un discours de rupture vis-à-vis de ses partenaires occidentaux et tente de diversifier ses alliances, la marge de manœuvre diplomatique de la Tunisie reste contrainte par des facteurs structurels internes et par sa dépendance à l'Algérie. - réalisation : Vivian Lecuivre - invités : Michaël Béchir Ayari Analyste Principal Tunisie et Algérie pour le International Crisis Group.; Thierry Brésillon Collaborateur au Monde diplomatique et correspondant en Tunisie entre 2011 et 2023; Omar Brouksy Professeur de science politique et journaliste indépendant au Maroc

The Trump administration miscalculated how Iran would respond to this war. And the United States, Iran and Israel were brought to the brink of war in the first place because of a whole series of misjudgments and miscalculations going back decades. Ali Vaez is the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group. He was involved in the negotiations that led to the 2015 nuclear deal, and is in fact himself a nuclear scientist. He's also an author of “How Sanctions Work: Iran and the Impact of Economic Warfare.” In this conversation, Vaez explains how over 47 years the United States, Israel and Iran came to one another as threats, and why so many efforts to thaw relations failed. It's the briefing on Iran that Trump should have received before he decided to go to war. Mentioned: How Sanctions Work by Narges Bajoghli, Vali Nasr, Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, and Ali Vaez Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Book Recommendations: Persians by Lloyd Llewellyn-Jones The Mantle of the Prophet by Roy P. Mottahedeh Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com. You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast, and you can find Ezra on Twitter @ezraklein. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs. This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Jack McCordick. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris with Kate Sinclair. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld, with additional mixing by Isaac Jones and Aman Sahota. Our executive producer is Claire Gordon. The show's production team also includes Marie Cascione, Annie Galvin, Rollin Hu, Kristin Lin, Emma Kehlbeck, Marina King and Jan Kobal. Original music by Aman Sahota and Pat McCusker. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The director of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. You can also subscribe via your favorite podcast app here https://www.nytimes.com/activate-access/audio?source=podcatcher. For more podcasts and narrated articles, download The New York Times app at nytimes.com/app. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

U.S. intelligence reports this week show that, despite U.S and Israeli strikes, very little has changed about the Iranian regime's grip since the start of the war.The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or the IRGC for short, along with interim leaders that stepped in after Supreme leader Ali Khamenei's death, still retain control of the country.The IRGC has been described as a parallel state, and the most powerful institution in Iran outside of the Supreme Leader's office. They have broad control over Iran's industry and major sectors of the country's economy, and have been designated a terror group by Canada and the U.S.Ali Vaez is the International Crisis Group's Iran Project Director. He joins us to discuss the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – an organization that has a central place in Iran's public, private and political life, and a key role in the escalating war in the Middle East.For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

Johnatan Reiss, freelance reporter and researcher for The New York Times's Jerusalem Bureau based in Tel Aviv & David Wood, Senior Lebanon Analyst with the International Crisis Group have the latest from the Lebanon.

On February 28, the United States and Israel launched military, cyber, and intelligence operations against Iran. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed and strikes were conducted on a broad array of targets, including other senior Iranian leadership compounds, IRGC bases, and missile launchers and production facilities. In response, Iran launched hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles against U.S. bases, Israel and countries in the Gulf, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar.  With no signs of the conflict winding down and unclear goals and timelines from leadership in Washington, where is this war headed? Was there ever a serious prospect for negotiations between the United States and Iran? What is the likely impact of the death of Ayatollah Khamenei on succession and the stability of the regime? Is meaningful and lasting regime change or transformation possible?  Join Aaron David Miller as engages with the Brooking Institution's Suzanne Maloney, International Crisis Group's Ali Vaez, and Yale University's Rob Malley on these and other Iran-related issues, on the next Carnegie Connects.

On this episode of The LatinNews Podcast, we dive into the complex landscape of Venezuela's political and economic situation following the recent changes in leadership. With insights from Phil Gunson, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group based in Caracas, we explore what's happening on the ground, the implications of U.S. involvement, and the challenges ahead for the Venezuelan people.Phil Gunson provides a unique perspective on the atmosphere in Caracas after the leadership change. While many celebrate Maduro's departure, the existing power structures remain largely intact, leading to a cautious optimism among the populace. The release of political prisoners and reforms in the oil industry are significant steps, but the question remains: can these changes lead to a genuine political transition? Follow LatinNews for analysis on economic, political, and security developments in Latin America & the Caribbean. Twitter: @latinnewslondon LinkedIn: Latin American Newsletters Facebook: @latinnews1967 For more insightful, expert-led analysis on Latin America's political and economic landscape, read our reports for free with a 14-day trial. Get full access to our entire portfolio.

In the wake of the US's assassination of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, many are asking – will Iran actually see regime change, as President Donald Trump has called for? What would that take? And is the real goal to engineer a civil war inside of Iran and leave it as a failed state? In this 'Mehdi Unfiltered' interview, Mehdi gets straight down to the facts with one of the top Iranian-affairs experts, Ali Vaez – who serves as the International Crisis Group's Iran Project Director. Vaez breaks down how the country's leadership is handling this crisis and why he worries the US and Israel's war on Iran may bring the country to state collapse.   SUBSCRIBE TO ZETEO TO SUPPORT INDEPENDENT AND UNFILTERED JOURNALISM: https://zeteo.com/subscribe   WATCH 'MEHDI UNFILTERED' ON SUBSTACK: https://zeteo.com/s/mehdi-unfiltered   FIND ZETEO: Twitter: https://twitter.com/zeteo_news Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/zeteonews TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@zeteonews   FIND MEHDI: Substack: https://substack.com/@mehdirhasan Twitter: https://twitter.com/@mehdirhasan Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/@mehdirhasan TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@mehdirhasan   To advertise on the show, contact sales@advertisecast.com or visit https://advertising.libsyn.com/Zeteo  

Shownotes In his historically long State of the Union speech, President Donald J. Trump spent just three minutes talking about Iran, saying he would never let Iran develop a nuclear weapon but preferred diplomacy to war. Meanwhile in the Middle East, Iran and the United States are negotiating, but are also both preparing for war. On this episode of the Order from Ashes podcast, Naysan Rafati grounds the conversation in the realities on the ground, including Iran's incentives and capabilities, and the substantial dangers of escalation. Participants Naysan Rafati is Iran Senior Analyst at International Crisis Group. Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International.  Date: Friday, February 27, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 103

On the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, The Naked Pravda speaks with journalist and author Lucian Kim to ask the questions that still don't have settled answers: Was this war the product of one man's radicalization, or something deeper — an imperial culture that generates aggression with or without orders from the top? Why didn't Putin march on Kyiv in 2014, when Ukraine had no army and most of its citizens didn't yet see Russia as an enemy? And is Putin really the inscrutable black box that analysts make him out to be, or has he been telling us exactly what he intends for decades? Lucian Kim has been covering Russia since Putin's first term in office — more than two decades of on-the-ground reporting, including time in the Kremlin press pool and as NPR's Moscow-based correspondent. He is now a senior Ukraine analyst at the International Crisis Group. His book, Putin's Revenge: Why Russia Invaded Ukraine, published by Columbia University Press, is now available in paperback. Use the promo code CUP20 at checkout for a 20-percent discount. Timestamps for this episode: (02:25) How do you write about Putin's psychology when his inner world is a black box?(09:02) Has Putin's COVID isolation hardened him permanently?(09:48) Why didn't Putin order a full-scale invasion in 2014, when Ukraine was defenseless?(14:24) In an “adhocracy” of freelancers, who bears responsibility for Russian aggression?(18:11) Did Putin kidnap ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych or rescue him?(23:00) Why frame the conflict as a generational clash over Soviet memory?(29:30) Is there still reason for hope in Russia's younger generation?Как поддержать нашу редакцию — даже если вы в России и вам очень страшно

Mass violence broke out on Sunday in Mexico after a military raid killed the most wanted, and feared, cartel boss in the country — a man known as El Mencho.We take a closer look at the aftermath of the operation and ask some questions: who was this kingpin, what is the powerful criminal organization he presided over, and what could happen in his absence?With us today is David Mora in Guadalajara. He's the senior Mexico analyst at International Crisis Group.For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts

On February 3, the United States deployed a warship and Coast Guard vessels off the coast of Haiti, near Port-au-Prince. The move came amid political wrangling within Haiti's Transitional Presidential Council, as some members sought to block Washington's preferred candidate from becoming the next prime minister. This deployment comes amid a deepening political, security, and humanitarian crisis in Haiti that stretches back to the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. In the wake of that killing, armed criminal gangs—once largely confined to a handful of neighborhoods in Port-au-Prince—began seizing territory. Today, a gang alliance controls most of Port-au-Prince and some surrounding areas. Meanwhile, a new UN-backed multinational security force of roughly 5,500 troops is expected to deploy in the coming weeks to help the Haitian National Police confront these gangs. My guest today is Diego Da Rin, Haiti analyst at the International Crisis Group. We begin by unpacking what this American show of force is meant to accomplish, then turn to the interlocking political, security, and humanitarian crises facing Haiti—and whether the UN-backed force can make a meaningful difference. https://www.globaldispatches.org/40PercentOff

Tommy and Ben break down the expanding web of corruption around President Trump — from a bombshell report revealing the UAE royal family's stake in the Trump family crypto venture, to the global fallout from the release of the Epstein Files. They also dig into Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's role in “investigating” insane foreign election conspiracies, a mysterious, top-secret whistleblower complaint that Gabbard has kept from Congress, the impact of brutal winter conditions on the war in Ukraine, Egypt's role in Sudan's civil war, why Americans should care about a separatist movement in Alberta, Canada, and the last place you'd ever expect to find a World War I artillery shell. Then, Ben speaks with Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group about what's unfolding in Iran after the regime's brutal crackdown. Preorder Ben's book All We Say: The Battle for American Identity: A History in 15 Speeches and subscribe to his Substack here.

For the past year and a half, South Sudan has been on the brink of a new civil war. A 2018 peace deal that ended the last civil war has been faltering, while the war across the border in Sudan has threatened to spill south. According to my interview guest, Daniel Akech of the International Crisis Group, the tipping point has been breached. We are now in the early stages of a new civil war in South Sudan—one that may prove even more destructive than the 2013–2018 conflict, which left an estimated 400,000 people dead. There are a number of reasons for this—not least the civil war in Sudan, which has decimated oil revenues that long underpinned South Sudan's political economy. And, as in the first civil war, ethnic tensions are being deliberately stoked, raising the prospect of mass atrocities. We kick off by discussing recent events on the ground in South Sudan, including an offensive by opposition forces sparked by the arrest and prosecution of Riek Machar, a former vice president who led one side of the previous civil war. We then explore the potential trajectory of this conflict, how it is intimately tied to the war in Sudan, and the role of key regional actors. South Sudan is a new country, having gained independence from Sudan in 2011—but just two years later, civil war erupted, killing hundreds of thousands, displacing millions, and destroying infrastructure across the country. This new outbreak of violence may lead to something just as bad— or worse — but has received little attention in the Western press.

After days of urging the people of Iran to continue to protest, President Trump suddenly appeared to back down last night — noting to reporters that Iranian sources told him that the killing of protesters was over and planned executions will not go ahead. But even as the crackdown on protesters has proven deadly, with thousands reported killed, some are still staunch defenders of the regime. Christiane speaks to one of those voices — Mohammad Marandi is a Professor at the University of Tehran and joins the show from Tehran, Iran.  Also on today's show: Nazenin Ansari, Journalist /Managing Editor of Kayhan London; Phil Gunson, Andes Project Senior Analyst, International Crisis Group; NYT columnist and author Andrew Ross Sorkin    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent shot and killed Renee Good in Minneapolis last week, there's widespread outrage over the use of force by federal immigration officers across the country. That includes chokeholds, even though that tactic was banned in most cases after the 2020 murder of George Floyd. ProPublica's Nicole Foy tells us more. Then, Phil Gunson, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, gives an update from Caracas on the recent capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

You saw it. We all saw it. We all saw what happened in Minneapolis when an ICE agent shot and killed Renee Good for the crime of being in her car. This week on Amicus, Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Joseph Stern attempt to digest this week's horrific events and wonder if there is even a possibility of justice. Dahlia recommends “They Didn't Even Need A Deepfake” by Slate's Molly Olmstead.Later in the show, Mark speaks with Brian Finucane, a senior advisor to the International Crisis Group. He spent a decade in the U.S. State Department's Office of the Legal Adviser. Brian and Mark discuss the lawlessness of Trump's foreign policy (cough cough, Venezuela), and how the administration's approach embraces some of the worst aspects of tough-guy masculinity.Want more Amicus? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes with exclusive legal analysis. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Amicus show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/amicusplus to get access wherever you listen. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

You saw it. We all saw it. We all saw what happened in Minneapolis when an ICE agent shot and killed Renee Good for the crime of being in her car. This week on Amicus, Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Joseph Stern attempt to digest this week's horrific events and wonder if there is even a possibility of justice. Dahlia recommends “They Didn't Even Need A Deepfake” by Slate's Molly Olmstead.Later in the show, Mark speaks with Brian Finucane, a senior advisor to the International Crisis Group. He spent a decade in the U.S. State Department's Office of the Legal Adviser. Brian and Mark discuss the lawlessness of Trump's foreign policy (cough cough, Venezuela), and how the administration's approach embraces some of the worst aspects of tough-guy masculinity.Want more Amicus? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes with exclusive legal analysis. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Amicus show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/amicusplus to get access wherever you listen. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

You saw it. We all saw it. We all saw what happened in Minneapolis when an ICE agent shot and killed Renee Good for the crime of being in her car. This week on Amicus, Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Joseph Stern attempt to digest this week's horrific events and wonder if there is even a possibility of justice. Dahlia recommends “They Didn't Even Need A Deepfake” by Slate's Molly Olmstead.Later in the show, Mark speaks with Brian Finucane, a senior advisor to the International Crisis Group. He spent a decade in the U.S. State Department's Office of the Legal Adviser. Brian and Mark discuss the lawlessness of Trump's foreign policy (cough cough, Venezuela), and how the administration's approach embraces some of the worst aspects of tough-guy masculinity.Want more Amicus? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes with exclusive legal analysis. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Amicus show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/amicusplus to get access wherever you listen. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It was just a few days ago that, after months of saber-rattling by the Trump administration, U.S. forces raided Venezuela and captured its leader, Nicolás Maduro. Already, Trump has suggested that the United States could “run” the country and has demanded a huge stake in Venezuela's vast oil resources. Maduro, meanwhile, sits in a New York jail, awaiting his next court date in March. But much remains unclear—about what happens in Venezuela with Maduro gone but his regime largely still in place; how his ouster affects the wider region; and what's next as the Trump administration flexes its muscles in Latin America. In this special two-part episode, Dan Kurtz-Phelan spoke on the morning of Wednesday, January 7, with two experts on Venezuela seeking to make sense of the situation. First, Phil Gunson, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group who is based in Caracas, explores the dynamics within Venezuela and the prospects for the country's new president, Delcy Rodríguez. Then, Juan S. Gonzalez, a longtime U.S. policymaker, including a recent stretch overseeing Latin America on the National Security Council, charts the history and near future of U.S. policy on Venezuela. Both make clear how difficult and dangerous the path ahead will be, for Venezuela and for the United States. You can find sources, transcripts, and more episodes of The Foreign Affairs Interview at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/foreign-affairs-interview.