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Shownotes In his historically long State of the Union speech, President Donald J. Trump spent just three minutes talking about Iran, saying he would never let Iran develop a nuclear weapon but preferred diplomacy to war. Meanwhile in the Middle East, Iran and the United States are negotiating, but are also both preparing for war. On this episode of the Order from Ashes podcast, Naysan Rafati grounds the conversation in the realities on the ground, including Iran's incentives and capabilities, and the substantial dangers of escalation. Participants Naysan Rafati is Iran Senior Analyst at International Crisis Group. Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International. Date: Friday, February 27, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 103
Massive violence erupted in Mexico on Sunday following a military operation that killed the country's most wanted and feared cartel leader, known as El Mencho. Who was this notorious kingpin? What criminal empire did he control? And what might unfold now that he's gone? David Kirton is joined by David Mora, Senior Mexico analyst at International Crisis Group.
On the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, The Naked Pravda speaks with journalist and author Lucian Kim to ask the questions that still don't have settled answers: Was this war the product of one man's radicalization, or something deeper — an imperial culture that generates aggression with or without orders from the top? Why didn't Putin march on Kyiv in 2014, when Ukraine had no army and most of its citizens didn't yet see Russia as an enemy? And is Putin really the inscrutable black box that analysts make him out to be, or has he been telling us exactly what he intends for decades? Lucian Kim has been covering Russia since Putin's first term in office — more than two decades of on-the-ground reporting, including time in the Kremlin press pool and as NPR's Moscow-based correspondent. He is now a senior Ukraine analyst at the International Crisis Group. His book, Putin's Revenge: Why Russia Invaded Ukraine, published by Columbia University Press, is now available in paperback. Use the promo code CUP20 at checkout for a 20-percent discount. Timestamps for this episode: (02:25) How do you write about Putin's psychology when his inner world is a black box?(09:02) Has Putin's COVID isolation hardened him permanently?(09:48) Why didn't Putin order a full-scale invasion in 2014, when Ukraine was defenseless?(14:24) In an “adhocracy” of freelancers, who bears responsibility for Russian aggression?(18:11) Did Putin kidnap ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych or rescue him?(23:00) Why frame the conflict as a generational clash over Soviet memory?(29:30) Is there still reason for hope in Russia's younger generation?Как поддержать нашу редакцию — даже если вы в России и вам очень страшно
Mass violence broke out on Sunday in Mexico after a military raid killed the most wanted, and feared, cartel boss in the country — a man known as El Mencho.We take a closer look at the aftermath of the operation and ask some questions: who was this kingpin, what is the powerful criminal organization he presided over, and what could happen in his absence?With us today is David Mora in Guadalajara. He's the senior Mexico analyst at International Crisis Group.For transcripts of Front Burner, please visit: https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/transcripts
On February 3, the United States deployed a warship and Coast Guard vessels off the coast of Haiti, near Port-au-Prince. The move came amid political wrangling within Haiti's Transitional Presidential Council, as some members sought to block Washington's preferred candidate from becoming the next prime minister. This deployment comes amid a deepening political, security, and humanitarian crisis in Haiti that stretches back to the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. In the wake of that killing, armed criminal gangs—once largely confined to a handful of neighborhoods in Port-au-Prince—began seizing territory. Today, a gang alliance controls most of Port-au-Prince and some surrounding areas. Meanwhile, a new UN-backed multinational security force of roughly 5,500 troops is expected to deploy in the coming weeks to help the Haitian National Police confront these gangs. My guest today is Diego Da Rin, Haiti analyst at the International Crisis Group. We begin by unpacking what this American show of force is meant to accomplish, then turn to the interlocking political, security, and humanitarian crises facing Haiti—and whether the UN-backed force can make a meaningful difference. https://www.globaldispatches.org/40PercentOff
Aujourd'hui, vendredi 13 février à Addis-Abeba, à la veille du sommet des chefs d'État et de gouvernement de l'Union africaine, se tient un sommet Italie-Afrique. C'est le deuxième sommet de ce genre, mais c'est la première fois qu'il se tient sur le continent. Il y a deux ans, le gouvernement de Giorgia Meloni, présentait « Le plan Mattei pour l'Afrique », un programme de coopération et de développement de 5,5 milliards d'euros jusqu'en 2027. La présidente du Conseil italien fait le déplacement à Addis-Abeba et sera même l'invitée d'honneur du sommet de l'UA ce week-end. Quelles sont les ambitions de Giorgia Meloni en Afrique ? Notre grand invité Afrique est Riccardo Fabiani, directeur Afrique du Nord pour International Crisis Group. Il répond à Sidy Yansané. À lire aussiLe plan Mattei, nouvelle politique africaine de l'Italie, commence à prendre forme
Tommy and Ben break down the expanding web of corruption around President Trump — from a bombshell report revealing the UAE royal family's stake in the Trump family crypto venture, to the global fallout from the release of the Epstein Files. They also dig into Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's role in “investigating” insane foreign election conspiracies, a mysterious, top-secret whistleblower complaint that Gabbard has kept from Congress, the impact of brutal winter conditions on the war in Ukraine, Egypt's role in Sudan's civil war, why Americans should care about a separatist movement in Alberta, Canada, and the last place you'd ever expect to find a World War I artillery shell. Then, Ben speaks with Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group about what's unfolding in Iran after the regime's brutal crackdown. Preorder Ben's book All We Say: The Battle for American Identity: A History in 15 Speeches and subscribe to his Substack here.
Send us a textOn Inside Geneva this week, we take an in-depth look at US President Donald Trump's new ‘Board of Peace'. Experts on conflict resolution are sceptical.“The US circulated an invitation to about 60 countries to join a new board of peace that would not just focus on Gaza but would instead be a global conflict prevention organisation, complete with a pre-baked charter that looks a bit like President Trump took the protocols for a golf club in New Jersey,” says Richard Gowan from the International Crisis Group.Still, the new board could be a challenge to the United Nations (UN).“I don't really think this is a credible international institution that will have the capacities of the UN, but I do think that it is a very worrying signal for the UN,” Gowan says.We also hear about a new report on growing disrespect for international law.“People only have to look around at the conflicts that they're seeing today, and the extent of devastation both of civilian life and of civilian property, to know that we are in very bleak times. Disregard of international law is not new. What I think is new is the extent to which it's being flouted,” says Stuart Casey-Maslen from the Geneva Academy of International Humanitarian Law.Are governments swapping international obligations for short-term political gain?“We look at what's happened in Gaza. We see the destruction of hospitals in Sudan. We see that people do this and are not held to account. We have institutions, we have the International Criminal Court, but even there, there's an attempt to undermine it. It becomes a political decision rather than simply a legal one: respect for the law,” says Casey-Maslen.Join host Imogen Foulkes on Inside Geneva to listen to the full episode.Get in touch! Email us at insidegeneva@swissinfo.ch Twitter: @ImogenFoulkes and @swissinfo_en Thank you for listening! If you like what we do, please leave a review or subscribe to our newsletter. For more stories on the international Geneva please visit www.swissinfo.ch/Host: Imogen FoulkesProduction assitant: Claire-Marie GermainDistribution: Sara PasinoMarketing: Xin Zhang
For the past year and a half, South Sudan has been on the brink of a new civil war. A 2018 peace deal that ended the last civil war has been faltering, while the war across the border in Sudan has threatened to spill south. According to my interview guest, Daniel Akech of the International Crisis Group, the tipping point has been breached. We are now in the early stages of a new civil war in South Sudan—one that may prove even more destructive than the 2013–2018 conflict, which left an estimated 400,000 people dead. There are a number of reasons for this—not least the civil war in Sudan, which has decimated oil revenues that long underpinned South Sudan's political economy. And, as in the first civil war, ethnic tensions are being deliberately stoked, raising the prospect of mass atrocities. We kick off by discussing recent events on the ground in South Sudan, including an offensive by opposition forces sparked by the arrest and prosecution of Riek Machar, a former vice president who led one side of the previous civil war. We then explore the potential trajectory of this conflict, how it is intimately tied to the war in Sudan, and the role of key regional actors. South Sudan is a new country, having gained independence from Sudan in 2011—but just two years later, civil war erupted, killing hundreds of thousands, displacing millions, and destroying infrastructure across the country. This new outbreak of violence may lead to something just as bad— or worse — but has received little attention in the Western press.
Shownotes President Donald Trump's invasion of Venezuela is just the latest American war initiated with no Congressional authorization. According to the Constitution, only Congress can decide to go to war. In practice, however, since 9/11 presidents have enjoyed complete freedom to go to war, or even wage secret and undeclared wars, without authorization from Congress, and with no accountability or oversight. On this episode of Order from Ashes, legal expert Brian Finucane explains how Congress could reassert its Constitutional power to decide when America goes to war. Finucane charts America's descent into a norm of illegality in international conflict, how much that abuse of power has cost Americans at home, and how to restore Constitutional checks and balances. Participants Brian Finucane is a senior adviser at International Crisis Group. He previously worked for a decade in the Office of the Legal Adviser at the U.S. Department of State. Thanassis Cambanis is director of Century International. Related reading * Brian Finucane, “Dissecting the Trump Administration's Effort to Circumvent the War Powers Resolution for Boat Strikes,” Just Security * Brian Finucane, “America Unbound in the Caribbean,” Foreign Affairs * Report, “Bending the Guardrails: U.S. War Powers after 7 October,” International Crisis Group Date: Monday, February 2, 2026 Episode: Order from Ashes 100
El 20 de enero del 2024, el mundo contenía el aliento mientras Donald Trump regresaba al despacho oval de la Casa Blanca con todo y sus dichos y amenazas. En México, Trump ha establecido buena parte de la agenda para la presidenta Claudia Sheinbaum, quien desde las mañaneras insiste en una relación de iguales y en la defensa de la soberanía del país, mientras en las llamadas de 15 minutos con la Casa Blanca se negocia el futuro de la seguridad y funcionarios mexicanos viven unos días en Washington y otros días en México, trabajando por la viabilidad del T-MEC que encarará su revisión crítica este julio. En este episodio, Mariel Ibarra, editora de política de Expansión platica con Renata Segura, Directora para América Latina y el Caribe en el International Crisis Group y Rodrigo Aguilar, Internacionalista, sobre las implicaciones que esto tiene para México y como llegamos a las negociaciones del tratado comercial. Las opiniones de este podcast son responsabilidad de quien las emite. Lo contenido en este podcast es emitido por su autora en su carácter exclusivo cómo profesionista independiente y no refleja las opiniones, políticas o posiciones de otros cargos que desempeña. Leemos sus comentarios en @ExpansionMx
Is 2026 the year of global conflict escalation? In this in-depth conversation, Richard Atwood, Executive VP of International Crisis Group and host of Hold Your Fire! podcast, discusses the top 10 conflicts to watch in 2026 and how Trump's foreign policy is reshaping global order. Richard Atwood, one of the world's leading conflict analysis and prevention experts, draws on 20+ years of field research across 50+ war zones (Ukraine, Gaza, Venezuela, Syria) to explain: • Venezuela: a dramatic US raid, but no clear ‘day after' • Latin America: pressure politics over intervention wars • Greenland: how seriously should Europe take Trump? • Europe & NATO: defence burden-shifting and US unpredictability • Ukraine: diplomacy stalled, deterrence doing the heavy lifting • China-Taiwan: mixed signals, high stakes • Iran: regime under pressure, options narrowing • Israel-Palestine: ceasefire without resolution, West Bank escalation • Syria: Assad gone, opportunity or new instability? • Gulf politics: Saudi-UAE tensions beneath the surface • Sudan-Yemen: neglected wars reshaping the region Advising UN, EU, US State Dept and cited by world leaders, Atwood delivers unfiltered analysis on rules-based order collapse, Trump 2.0 impact, and which wars pose the greatest global threat. For geopolitics analysts, policymakers, and anyone tracking 2026 flashpoints, this is essential predictive intel. If you value independent analysis like this, please like , comment, share, and subscribe to The Voices of War for long-form interviews with top geopolitics experts. Resources & Links
I'm just back from another stimulating Digital Life Design (DLD) conference in Munich where all the talk was about the growing technological and political gap with the United States and China. From Machiavelli and Hobbes to Napoleon and Bismarck, Europe invented the modern concept of state power. But decades of outsourcing security to NATO and the US have left the continent dangerously rusty both in the language and execution of power. According to Marta Mucznik, a senior analyst at the Brussels-based left-leaning International Crisis Group, "projecting power is the language of today's world." And unless European politicians relearn it, Mucznik warns, that growing gap between Europe and the bipolar reality of a US-China centric world will only continue to dramatically widen.Keen On America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe
Donald Trump's foreign policy has been described as the ‘Donroe doctrine' – but it's a stretch to say it's that cohesive. To discuss how damaging he is to the world right now, as he puts American security and everyone else's at risk, Nikki and Jarv are joined by Brian Finucane, senior adviser at International Crisis Group and editor at Just Security. Back us on Patreon – we need your help to keep going. Get ad free episodes, extra bits and merch: https://www.patreon.com/c/americanfriction We're now on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@AmericanFrictionPod Follow us on social media: BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/americanfric.bsky.social Instagram TikTok Written and presented by Chris Jones and Jacob Jarvis. Video and audio editor: Chris Jones. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. Managing Editor: Jacob Jarvis Executive producer: Martin Bojtos. Artwork by James Parrett. Music: Orange Factory Music. AMERICAN FRICTION is a Podmasters Production. www.podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
After days of urging the people of Iran to continue to protest, President Trump suddenly appeared to back down last night — noting to reporters that Iranian sources told him that the killing of protesters was over and planned executions will not go ahead. But even as the crackdown on protesters has proven deadly, with thousands reported killed, some are still staunch defenders of the regime. Christiane speaks to one of those voices — Mohammad Marandi is a Professor at the University of Tehran and joins the show from Tehran, Iran. Also on today's show: Nazenin Ansari, Journalist /Managing Editor of Kayhan London; Phil Gunson, Andes Project Senior Analyst, International Crisis Group; NYT columnist and author Andrew Ross Sorkin Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Greg Brady spoke to Michael Kovrig, former Canadian diplomat and a senior advisor at the International Crisis Group about China-Canada Relations: High Tariffs and Low Trust. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
After an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent shot and killed Renee Good in Minneapolis last week, there's widespread outrage over the use of force by federal immigration officers across the country. That includes chokeholds, even though that tactic was banned in most cases after the 2020 murder of George Floyd. ProPublica's Nicole Foy tells us more. Then, Phil Gunson, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, gives an update from Caracas on the recent capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
You saw it. We all saw it. We all saw what happened in Minneapolis when an ICE agent shot and killed Renee Good for the crime of being in her car. This week on Amicus, Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Joseph Stern attempt to digest this week's horrific events and wonder if there is even a possibility of justice. Dahlia recommends “They Didn't Even Need A Deepfake” by Slate's Molly Olmstead.Later in the show, Mark speaks with Brian Finucane, a senior advisor to the International Crisis Group. He spent a decade in the U.S. State Department's Office of the Legal Adviser. Brian and Mark discuss the lawlessness of Trump's foreign policy (cough cough, Venezuela), and how the administration's approach embraces some of the worst aspects of tough-guy masculinity.Want more Amicus? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes with exclusive legal analysis. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Amicus show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/amicusplus to get access wherever you listen. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
You saw it. We all saw it. We all saw what happened in Minneapolis when an ICE agent shot and killed Renee Good for the crime of being in her car. This week on Amicus, Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Joseph Stern attempt to digest this week's horrific events and wonder if there is even a possibility of justice. Dahlia recommends “They Didn't Even Need A Deepfake” by Slate's Molly Olmstead.Later in the show, Mark speaks with Brian Finucane, a senior advisor to the International Crisis Group. He spent a decade in the U.S. State Department's Office of the Legal Adviser. Brian and Mark discuss the lawlessness of Trump's foreign policy (cough cough, Venezuela), and how the administration's approach embraces some of the worst aspects of tough-guy masculinity.Want more Amicus? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes with exclusive legal analysis. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Amicus show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/amicusplus to get access wherever you listen. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
You saw it. We all saw it. We all saw what happened in Minneapolis when an ICE agent shot and killed Renee Good for the crime of being in her car. This week on Amicus, Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Joseph Stern attempt to digest this week's horrific events and wonder if there is even a possibility of justice. Dahlia recommends “They Didn't Even Need A Deepfake” by Slate's Molly Olmstead.Later in the show, Mark speaks with Brian Finucane, a senior advisor to the International Crisis Group. He spent a decade in the U.S. State Department's Office of the Legal Adviser. Brian and Mark discuss the lawlessness of Trump's foreign policy (cough cough, Venezuela), and how the administration's approach embraces some of the worst aspects of tough-guy masculinity.Want more Amicus? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes with exclusive legal analysis. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Amicus show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/amicusplus to get access wherever you listen. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
It was just a few days ago that, after months of saber-rattling by the Trump administration, U.S. forces raided Venezuela and captured its leader, Nicolás Maduro. Already, Trump has suggested that the United States could “run” the country and has demanded a huge stake in Venezuela's vast oil resources. Maduro, meanwhile, sits in a New York jail, awaiting his next court date in March. But much remains unclear—about what happens in Venezuela with Maduro gone but his regime largely still in place; how his ouster affects the wider region; and what's next as the Trump administration flexes its muscles in Latin America. In this special two-part episode, Dan Kurtz-Phelan spoke on the morning of Wednesday, January 7, with two experts on Venezuela seeking to make sense of the situation. First, Phil Gunson, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group who is based in Caracas, explores the dynamics within Venezuela and the prospects for the country's new president, Delcy Rodríguez. Then, Juan S. Gonzalez, a longtime U.S. policymaker, including a recent stretch overseeing Latin America on the National Security Council, charts the history and near future of U.S. policy on Venezuela. Both make clear how difficult and dangerous the path ahead will be, for Venezuela and for the United States. You can find sources, transcripts, and more episodes of The Foreign Affairs Interview at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/foreign-affairs-interview.
The decision by the U.S. President Donald Trump administration to seize Venezuelan President Nicholás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, to stand trial in the United States reflects the administration's willingness to undertake a muscular intervention in the Western Hemisphere. Delcy Rodríguez, who served as Maduro's vice president since 2018, has taken over as the interim president and seems to be on an uncertain path forward working with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. However, Trump's statement that the United States plans to “run” Venezuela until a permanent, stable transition can be realized raises more questions than it answers, in Venezuela and about U.S. foreign policy at large. What precisely are the Trump administration's objectives in Venezuela? Was this a law enforcement operation or a serious effort to create a new political reality in Venezuela? Who are the key Venezuelan players the United States needs to engage and what is the role of the Venezuelan military? And what are the administration's intentions toward the Venezuelan oil industry and the role of American companies? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages the International Crisis Group's Phil Gunson, the Baker Institute's Francisco Monaldi, and Johns Hopkins SAIS's Cindy Arnson on these and other issues, on the next Carnegie Connects.
La captura de Nicolás Maduro y de su esposa Cilia Flores por fuerzas estadounidenses el pasado sábado ha abierto grandes preguntas sobre las consecuencias para el país, para América y para el mundo. En este episodio, Mariel Ibarra, editora de política de Expansión platica con César Batiz, periodista de investigación venezolano. Director y fundador de "El Pitazo" y Renata Segura, Directora para América Latina y el Caribe en el International Crisis Group, sobre lo que sigue para Venezuela, la situación de la población y el papel de la oposición. Las opiniones de este podcast son responsabilidad de quien las emite. Lo contenido en este podcast es emitido por su autora en su carácter exclusivo cómo profesionista independiente y no refleja las opiniones, políticas o posiciones de otros cargos que desempeña. Leemos sus comentarios en @ExpansionMx
On our first show back after the holidays, Brian Finucane, a senior advisor at the International Crisis Group, explains the legal ramifications of invading Venezuela and kidnapping its leader for “law enforcement.” We'll break down the Supreme Court's ruling eviscerating Trump's effort to conscript National Guard troops to terrorize cities. And for subscribers, Justin Baldoni will once again teach us (how not to) CivPro.Links:Trump v. Illinois [Supreme Court]https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25a443_new_b07d.pdfBrian Finucane, Presidential War Powers, the Take Care Clause, and Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, Cornell Law Review (2020)https://live-cornell-law-review.pantheonsite.io/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Finucane-final.pdf1989 OLC Memorandumhttps://www.justice.gov/olc/opinion/authority-federal-bureau-investigation-override-international-law-extraterritorial-lawUS v. Commonwealth of Virginia [In-state tuition for immigrant children]https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/72085714/united-states-v-commonwealth-of-virginia/JGG v. Trumphttps://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69741724/jgg-v-trump/?order_by=descLively v. Baldonihttps://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69741724/jgg-v-trump/?order_by=descShow Links:https://www.lawandchaospod.com/BlueSky: @LawAndChaosPodThreads: @LawAndChaosPodTwitter: @LawAndChaosPodSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
On this week's episode, Israel Policy Forum Policy Advisor and Tel Aviv-based journalist Neri Zilber hosts Naysan Rafati, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group. They discuss the ongoing protests across Iran against the regime, the strategic indecision by the Islamic Republic especially since last year's 12-day war with Israel, the prospects for miscalculation between Tehran and Jerusalem, President Trump's threats to 'come to the rescue' of the Iranian people, how the events in Venezuela impact Iran's thinking, and more. Support the showFollow us on Instagram, Twitter/X, and Bluesky, and subscribe to our email list here.
After a months-long pressure campaign, the U.S. military stormed into Caracas this weekend, capturing Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. We look at what this means for the future of Venezuela—with Phil Gunson, a senior analyst for the Andes region of the International Crisis Group and Luis Duno-Gottberg, a Venezuelan scholar, and the Lee Hage Jamail Professor of Latin American Studies at Rice University.
In a stunning U.S. military operation carried out in the early hours of Saturday, January 3rd, American forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. As of Saturday afternoon Eastern Time, the two were en route to New York, where they are expected to face criminal charges tied to a U.S. indictment issued roughly five years ago. The operation follows months of escalating confrontation between Washington and Caracas. The Trump administration had already carried out military strikes on vessels accused of drug smuggling and seized oil tankers off Venezuela's coast. Hours after Maduro's capture, President Trump declared that the United States would now "run Venezuela," offering few details—but repeatedly emphasizing that the U.S. would soon control the country's vast oil reserves. To help us understand what just happened and what may come next, I'm joined from Bogotá, Colombia by Elizabeth Dickinson, deputy director for Latin America at the International Crisis Group. We discuss what is known so far about the operation, the risks facing Venezuela in the days ahead, and why this moment bears uncomfortable similarities to the U.S. overthrow of Saddam Hussein and the occupation of Iraq more than two decades ago. Support Global Dispatches with your paid subscription! https://www.globaldispatches.org/
US special forces capture Venezuela's president Nicolas Maduro - in a daring attack that's taken the country and the world by surprise. He'd denied accusations by president Donald Trump of heading a narcotics cartel. So, what are the implications of Washington's actions? In this episode: Phil Gunson - senior analyst for the Andes Project at the International Crisis Group. Richard Weitz - a U.S. security analyst and Senior Fellow at the NATO Defense College. Temir Porras - former Foreign Policy Advisor to President Hugo Chavez and the former Chief of Staff for President Nicolas Maduro. Host: James Bays Connect with us: @AJEPodcasts on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook
China has been holding military drills around Taiwan simulating the seizure of the island's key areas. Beijing described its actions as a warning against “Taiwan Independence, separatist forces and external interference”. We were joined for a discussion by William Tang, Senior North East Asia Analyst for the International Crisis Group think tank.
This week, instead of zooming in on a single conflict, the GZERO World Podcast looks back on 2025 and takes stock of a world increasingly defined by conflict. Ian Bremmer sits down with CNN Chief International Correspondent Clarissa Ward and Comfort Ero, President and CEO of the International Crisis Group to look at some of the biggest crises of 2025–-both the headline making wars and the ones the world overlooked.Gaza and Ukraine captured the world's attention this year. But at the same time, around 60 other armed conflicts and struggles have been raging around the world. It's the most active period of conflict since the end of World War II. Some are decades-long battles, like Myanmar's devastating civil war. Others are more recent, like the surge of terrorist insurgent groups in Africa's Sahel. But each is a symptom of a broader global order breaking down—driven by weakening institutions, regional rivalries, climate shocks, and failing states. Bremmer sits down first with Clarissa Ward, to discuss her reporting from war zones around the world and then with Comfort Ero, for a global perspective on the conditions that have created so much strife.Host: Ian BremmerGuests: Clarissa Ward, Comfort Ero Subscribe to the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
This week, instead of zooming in on a single conflict, the GZERO World Podcast looks back on 2025 and takes stock of a world increasingly defined by conflict. Ian Bremmer sits down with CNN Chief International Correspondent Clarissa Ward and Comfort Ero, President and CEO of the International Crisis Group to look at some of the biggest crises of 2025–-both the headline making wars and the ones the world overlooked.Gaza and Ukraine captured the world's attention this year. But at the same time, around 60 other armed conflicts and struggles have been raging around the world. It's the most active period of conflict since the end of World War II. Some are decades-long battles, like Myanmar's devastating civil war. Others are more recent, like the surge of terrorist insurgent groups in Africa's Sahel. But each is a symptom of a broader global order breaking down—driven by weakening institutions, regional rivalries, climate shocks, and failing states. Bremmer sits down first with Clarissa Ward, to discuss her reporting from war zones around the world and then with Comfort Ero, for a global perspective on the conditions that have created so much strife.Host: Ian BremmerGuests: Clarissa Ward, Comfort Ero Subscribe to the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
La presión de Washington sobre Caracas continúa intensificándose, pese a los llamados a la mediación de México y Brasil. El reciente bloqueo de buques petroleros que salen o se dirigen a Venezuela eleva la tensión en la región y reabre el debate sobre los verdaderos objetivos de la estrategia estadounidense. Mientras la Casa Blanca insiste en la lucha contra el narcotráfico, varios analistas señalan posibles intereses energéticos detrás de esta escalada. Trump no descarta una guerra entre Estados Unidos y Venezuela. Para llevar a cabo ataques en ese país, en todo caso, el mandatario no se siente obligado a informar al Congreso. La cuestión del petróleo Desde hace un poco más de una semana, además, Estados Unidos aplica un bloqueo total contra “petroleros sancionados” que vayan rumbo a Venezuela o que provengan de ese país. En Caracas, mientras tanto, Maduro se pregunta cuáles son los otros intereses que tiene Washington con estas operaciones, fuera de derrocarlo. Para el International Crisis Group, el argumento energético toma cada vez una mayor relevancia: “El tema del petróleo es un tema que ha estado vigente desde hace mucho tiempo, en el que Trump en un momento dado tuvo una política un poco más pragmática, tratando de renovar algunas de las licencias. Por eso Chevron está todavía sacando petróleo de Venezuela”, explica a RFI Renata Segura, directora en Nueva York del programa para América Latina y el Caribe de ese grupo de reflexión. “Pero estas últimas declaraciones del presidente Trump indican que hay quizás un interés más grande de entrar y recuperar control de la industria petrolera en Venezuela. Yo creo que hay una confluencia entre la remoción de Maduro del poder y la cuestión del petróleo. Entonces sí, estamos muy preocupados sobre la posibilidad de que haya una intervención mayor en las semanas que vienen”, alerta la analista. “Al presidente Trump le gustan las acciones espectaculares” La otra pregunta es si habrá o no intervención militar de Estados Unidos en Venezuela y qué modalidad tomaría. Según Renata Segura, “las posibilidades de que bombardeen algo son bastante altas. Para Estados Unidos, sería difícil retirarse sin tener como una especie de éxito de algún tipo. Realmente empoderaría a Maduro, que podría salir a decir: ‘El imperio vino a atacarme, lo enfrentamos y ganamos'. Yo no creo que Estados Unidos esté dispuesto a darle, digamos, ese triunfo político a Maduro”. “Entonces, yo creo que la posibilidad de que bombardeen algo en Venezuela, sea alguna infraestructura involucrada en la producción de drogas o más un ataque a las Fuerzas Militares, no es menor. La verdad es que al presidente Trump le gustan las acciones que son como espectaculares y yo creo que la posibilidad de que bombardeen algo en Venezuela en las próximas semanas es bastante alta”, concluye la experta.
La presión de Washington sobre Caracas continúa intensificándose, pese a los llamados a la mediación de México y Brasil. El reciente bloqueo de buques petroleros que salen o se dirigen a Venezuela eleva la tensión en la región y reabre el debate sobre los verdaderos objetivos de la estrategia estadounidense. Mientras la Casa Blanca insiste en la lucha contra el narcotráfico, varios analistas señalan posibles intereses energéticos detrás de esta escalada. Trump no descarta una guerra entre Estados Unidos y Venezuela. Para llevar a cabo ataques en ese país, en todo caso, el mandatario no se siente obligado a informar al Congreso. La cuestión del petróleo Desde hace un poco más de una semana, además, Estados Unidos aplica un bloqueo total contra “petroleros sancionados” que vayan rumbo a Venezuela o que provengan de ese país. En Caracas, mientras tanto, Maduro se pregunta cuáles son los otros intereses que tiene Washington con estas operaciones, fuera de derrocarlo. Para el International Crisis Group, el argumento energético toma cada vez una mayor relevancia: “El tema del petróleo es un tema que ha estado vigente desde hace mucho tiempo, en el que Trump en un momento dado tuvo una política un poco más pragmática, tratando de renovar algunas de las licencias. Por eso Chevron está todavía sacando petróleo de Venezuela”, explica a RFI Renata Segura, directora en Nueva York del programa para América Latina y el Caribe de ese grupo de reflexión. “Pero estas últimas declaraciones del presidente Trump indican que hay quizás un interés más grande de entrar y recuperar control de la industria petrolera en Venezuela. Yo creo que hay una confluencia entre la remoción de Maduro del poder y la cuestión del petróleo. Entonces sí, estamos muy preocupados sobre la posibilidad de que haya una intervención mayor en las semanas que vienen”, alerta la analista. “Al presidente Trump le gustan las acciones espectaculares” La otra pregunta es si habrá o no intervención militar de Estados Unidos en Venezuela y qué modalidad tomaría. Según Renata Segura, “las posibilidades de que bombardeen algo son bastante altas. Para Estados Unidos, sería difícil retirarse sin tener como una especie de éxito de algún tipo. Realmente empoderaría a Maduro, que podría salir a decir: ‘El imperio vino a atacarme, lo enfrentamos y ganamos'. Yo no creo que Estados Unidos esté dispuesto a darle, digamos, ese triunfo político a Maduro”. “Entonces, yo creo que la posibilidad de que bombardeen algo en Venezuela, sea alguna infraestructura involucrada en la producción de drogas o más un ataque a las Fuerzas Militares, no es menor. La verdad es que al presidente Trump le gustan las acciones que son como espectaculares y yo creo que la posibilidad de que bombardeen algo en Venezuela en las próximas semanas es bastante alta”, concluye la experta.
Two months have passed since a ceasefire was announced in Gaza, but the second phase of US President Donald Trump's 20-point plan has yet to materialise. The uncertainty has left Gazans anxious that the ceasefire could collapse – as the last truce did in March. The initial part of the agreement included the exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian detainees and a stop to the fighting. Now these terms have mostly been met, Israel, Hamas and the mediators cannot seem to agree on how to tackle the next steps. Phase two is supposed to focus on a peacekeeping force and a governing committee, as well as reconstruction in the enclave. But so far there has been much disagreement over which countries will take part in the force and what their mandate will be. Meanwhile, an impasse remains over Israel's withdrawal from Gaza and the disarmament of Hamas. In this episode of Beyond the Headlines, host Nada AlTaher looks at the obstacles that must be overcome to reach the second stage of the ceasefire and what it would take to move the process forward. She speaks to Max Rodenbeck, Israel-Palestine director at International Crisis Group, and to The National's UK bureau chief Damien McElroy.
Robert Malley, a former US negotiator and president and CEO of the International Crisis Group, and currently Senior Fellow and Lecturer at Yale University's Jackson School for Global Affairs, discusses his book (co-authored with Hussein Agha) Tomorrow is Yesterday: Life, Death and the Pursuit of Peace in Israel/Palestine. The episode is sponsored by the Sady and Ludwig Kahn Chair in Jewish History at UCLA and co-hosted by Prof David N. Myers.
Deadly boat strikes, U.S. warships in the Caribbean, and now President Donald Trump is threatening to stop Venezuelan narco-traffickers on land. As the pressure to oust President Nicolas Maduro mounts, we speak with Phil Gunson, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group, in Caracas about the possible outcome of a forced regime change and what Venezuelans want.
Gunnar Gíslason, lögmaður á fertugsaldri, segir fjarstæðukennt að hafa setið í gæsluvarðhaldi og einangrun í nærri þrjár vikur vegna grunsemda lögreglunnar á Norðurlandi eystra um að tengjast skipulagðri brotastarfsemi. Hann hafnar því alfarið að tengjast slíkri glæpastarfsemi og ætlar ekki að láta framgöngu lögreglunnar gagnvart sér, yfir sig ganga átölulaust. Samgönguáætlun er fjármögnuð svo langt sem fjármálaáætlun ríkisstjórnarinnar nær, eða út árið 2030. Allt sem gert verður á fyrsta tímabili hennar er því fjármagnað, ólíkt því sem verið hefur þegar framkvæmdir hafa verið háðar fjárlögum frá ári til árs. Innviðafélag í eigu ríkisins verður lykilþáttur í gerðstórra samgöngumannvirkja. Sýrlendingar fögnuðu margir í dag að ár væri liðið síðan ógnarstjórn Assads lauk. En þrátt fyrir hátíðarbrag á götum Sýrlands er mörgu ósvarað um framtíð landsins. Nanar Hawach, greinandi hjá hugveitunni International Crisis Group, segir viðsnúninginn undraverðan undir stjórn núverandi leiðtoga Sýrlands, Ahmad al-Sharaa.
This week on One Decision, hosts Christina Ruffini and Sir Richard Dearlove, former head of Britain's MI6, are joined by Venezuela expert Phil Gunson, Senior Analyst for the International Crisis Group. In this conversation, the hosts discuss the new pressure campaign the Trump administration has placed on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his regime, including the recent air strikes on drug boats off the Venezuelan coast. Gunson, who lives in Caracas, Venezuela, explains how Cuban intelligence continues to help Maduro maintain control over Venezuela and its military, why the military sees no benefit in turning against Maduro, and how gold mining and evading sanctions keep the regime financially afloat. The conversation explores why Maduro's dictatorship continues to endure, the divided Venezuelan opposition, and the risks of the next dangerous power struggle if Maduro falls. Gunson also shares vivid insights into daily life in Caracas, from blackouts to food shortages, and shares his thoughts on what it would take for Venezuela to move toward democracy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Se cumplen 30 años desde que Alija Izetbegović, Franjo Tuđman y Slobodan Milošević, representantes de las tres comunidades étnicas constituyentes de Bosnia y Herzegovina, firmaron los conocidos Acuerdos de Dayton que pusieron fin al conflicto en este país. “Es muy difícil decir cuáles son los alcances de Dayton. Incluso hoy, 30 años después, su mayor logro se considera el haber detenido la guerra y haber establecido la paz. Pero con pleno derecho podemos hacernos la pregunta: ¿qué tipo de paz es esa? ¿Es una paz sostenible, si incluso 30 años después seguimos viviendo bajo tensión constante, bajo una amenaza permanente?”, estima Tanja Topic, periodista y analista política bosnia. Dayton logró imponer el alto el fuego tras más de tres años de guerra, y garantizó el retorno de refugiados y la protección de derechos humanos. Además, obligó a las partes a cooperar con el Tribunal Penal Internacional para la ex Yugoslavia. Sin embargo, también dejó al país dividido en dos entidades: la Federación Bosnia y Herzegovina –de mayoría bosniaca y croata– y la República Sprska –de mayoría serbia–, y el distrito autónomo de Brčko. Presidencia tripartita y divisón étnica Creó un sistema regido por una presidencia tripartita, y un Estado condenado a la presencia permanente de las fuerzas internacionales y supervisado por la figura del Alto Representante quien tiene amplios poderes para intervenir en la política del país, lo que limita la autonomía de Bosnia. “El acuerdo de paz de Dayton debía haber sido superado; es decir, pudo ser útil en el año 95, e incluso algunos años después, pero es completamente absurdo que hoy, debido a mi nombre y apellido, no pueda sentirme cómodo en alguna parte del país porque allí otro pueblo es dominante y porque alguna otra política nacionalista me discrimina basándose en mi nombre y apellido. Y eso lo permitió Dayton”, explica por su parte Jasmin Medic, investigador en el Instituto de Historia de la Universidad de Sarajevo. Hoy las carencias de Dayton están claras: una rigidez institucional que impide reformas, una división étnica que perpetúa tensiones y un carácter discriminatorio con las comunidades no constituyentes conocidas como “Las Otras”. Porque como denuncian organizaciones como Human Rights Watch e International Crisis Group, el modelo de Dayton, lejos de ser la solución, se ha convertido en el principal obstáculo para el futuro político, social y económico de Bosnia.
In the aftermath of World War Two, the charter that founded the United Nations was signed, with the aim of preventing a third global conflict. The UN Security Council, one of six organs of the UN, has the primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security. It's made up of 15 member countries, there are 10 rotating non-permanent members who are elected for two-year terms by members of the UN General Assembly, the body that represents all UN members. And there are five permanent members – the US, the UK, France, China and Russia; it's these five that have veto power. Now 80 years on, there are growing calls for the council to reflect the world of today, not only in its representation, but in the way it functions. Criticisms of this international body include abuse of the veto power, lack of permanent representation for countries which have seen more than their fair share of conflict and an inability to reach common consensus, including on how to reform the organisation from within. So, on The Inquiry this week we're asking, ‘Is the UN Security Council still relevant?'Contributors: Devika Hovell, Prof International Law, London School of Economics, UK Richard Gowan, Director, UN and Multilateral Diplomacy, International Crisis Group, New York, USA Dr Samir Puri, Director, Global Governance and Security Centre, Chatham House, London, UK Mona Ali Khalil, former Senior Legal Officer, UN Office of the Legal Counsel, Co-Editor and Co-Author, ‘Empowering the UN Security Council: Reforms to Address Modern Threats', Vienna, Austria. Presenter: Charmaine Cozier Producer: Jill Collins Researcher: Maeve Schaffer Technical Producer: Craig Boardman Editor: Tom Bigwood (Photo: United Nations Security Council meeting. Credit: Reuters/BBC Images)
The Caribbean is heating up and Trump's fingerprints are all over it. U.S. warships, stealth fighters, elite troops… and whispers of regime change. Is Donald Trump about to launch a full-scale invasion of Venezuela? Behind the “war on drugs” rhetoric, Washington has been quietly building up military power near Maduro's shores, reopening bases and even authorising covert CIA operations. Venezuela's leader says America is trying to overthrow him. Trump insists it's about stopping criminals and cartels. So who's telling the truth? And how close are we to another Cold War-style showdown in America's backyard? Senior Adviser at International Crisis Group, Brian Finucane, joins us to expose what's really happening on the edge of the Caribbean.► Sign up to our most popular newsletter, From the Editor. Look forward to receiving free-thinking comment and the day's biggest stories, every morning. telegraph.co.uk/fromtheeditorCredit: AFP/Federico Parrahttps://linktr.ee/BattleLinesContact us with feedback or ideas:battlelines@telegraph.co.uk @venetiarainey@RolandOliphant Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
President Trump continues to threaten Venezuela, sending B-52 bombers to its coast, deploying more warships to the Caribbean sea and surging troops in the region. As the administration continues to bomb boats it says are carrying drugs, a group of independent UN experts now calls them "extrajudicial executions." Colombia's president says it's "murder." Trump is retaliating by ending aid to the country and Bogota has recalled its Ambassador to the US in response. For more on this, we welcome Christopher Sabatini from Chatham House and Ivan Briscoe from the International Crisis Group. Also on today's show: Elliot Williams, former Deputy Assistant Attorney General For Legislative Affairs, DOJ; Sam Kass, former Senior Nutrition Policy Adviser to President Obama Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Rhetoric and actions from the Trump administration suggest that the United States is seeking to forcibly oust Nicolás Maduro from power in Venezuela Is the U.S. really going to attempt regime change in Venezuela, and what would that even look like? Joining me from Caracas is Phil Gunson, Senior Analyst for the Andes Region at the International Crisis Group. We kick off discussing the mood in Caracas right now amid this increasingly threatening American posture before having a longer conversation about whether the U.S. is indeed seeking regime change, what that might entail, and the profound risks of American intervention in Venezuela.
Israel and Hamas have agreed to a plan to end fighting in Gaza, just over two years after the Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7th, 2023 and Israel's subsequent bombardment and invasion of Gaza. As we wait to see what happens next, we're revisiting our episodes looking at the history of major players on both sides of the conflict. Last week, we looked at the history of Hamas; if you missed that, go back and check it out. This week, we're bringing you the story of the rise of right wing politics in Israel and President Benjamin Netanyahu's political career. This episode first ran in 2024.Guests: Amjad Iraqi, senior analyst for Israel/Palestine at the International Crisis Group and former senior editor at +972 Magazine. Natasha Roth-Rowland, historian and director of research and analysis at Diaspora Alliance, an international organization that combats antisemitism. Sara Yael Hirschhorn, historian,visiting professor at the University of Haifa and fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute.To access bonus episodes and listen to Throughline sponsor-free, subscribe to Throughline+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/throughline.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
Over the last two weeks, the United States has at least twice bombed boats in the Caribbean that the White House claims were smuggling drugs to the United States, killing an unknown number of people on board. This is extraordinary. Under normal circumstances, the United States Navy or Coast Guard would interdict alleged drug smugglers and turn them over to law enforcement for prosecution. But the Trump administration is apparently unleashing the full weight of the U.S. military against people it deems to be smuggling drugs. What's more concerning, according to legal experts across the spectrum, is that these targeted killings do not seem to be operating under any apparent legal framework. The administration is using the language of the War on Terror to justify these killings, but there has been no authorization for the use of military force against drug smugglers. Nor has the administration put forward a legal rationale for these strikes. And all this comes amidst an unprecedented American naval buildup in the Caribbean — a show of force against the regime of Nicolás Maduro. “It's truly extraordinary for the U.S. government to be conducting premeditated killing of individuals merely for suspected drug smuggling,” says my interview guest Brian Finucane, senior advisor at the International Crisis Group. We begin by discussing what is known about these two strikes, before turning to a longer conversation about the implications of using the language and tools of counterterrorism to kill alleged drug smugglers absent any clear legal constraint. https://www.globaldispatches.org/40percentoff
Richard Gowan, International Crisis Group's director of UN and Multilateral Diplomacy, shares what to expect at the UN General Assembly, including what President Trump may say in his Tuesday address, the war in Gaza and other crises and the role of the United Nations globally.
On today's episode, Richard Gowan, Director of UN and Multilateral Diplomacy at the International Crisis Group, shares insights on what to expect at the UN General Assembly, including President Trump's Tuesday address, the war in Gaza and the role of the United Nations worldwide.
From September 12, 2024: Without new congressional authorization for its post-Oct. 7 operations in the Middle East, the Biden administration has sought to legally justify its military activities in the region based on the president's constitutional authority and the application of existing statutory authorities to operations against new adversaries. These executive branch arguments are the outgrowth of similar arguments presidential administrations have made over the last few decades, largely related to the requirements in the War Powers Resolution. The International Crisis Group recently analyzed these arguments and related issues in a new report, “Bending the Guardrails: U.S. War Powers after 7 October.” Tyler McBrien and Matt Gluck of Lawfare spoke with Brian Finucane, a senior adviser for the U.S. Program at the International Crisis Group and an author of the report, and Matthew Waxman, a professor at Columbia Law School, about the Crisis Group's report. They discussed the history relevant to the current war powers moment, how the Biden administration has continued to justify its operations without new legislative authority, and the possibility of war powers legal reform moving forward.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
The Trump administration's recent lethal strikes on purported drug boats in Venezuela drew widespread condemnation from experts in international law. Brian Finucane, senior adviser at the International Crisis Group and a non-resident senior fellow at Reiss Center on Law and Security at NYU Law, talks about the strikes and breaks down their legality, plus discusses the implications of that analysis.
Tommy & Ben dig into the FBI's raid on John Bolton and how Pete Hegseth's firing of the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency fits into Trump's ongoing ideological purges of the US intelligence community. They discuss Israel's criminal “double tap” strike on Gaza's Nasser Hospital, The Free Press's sanctimonious reaction to criticism of their reporting about starvation in Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu's constant moving of the goalposts on a ceasefire deal, why Trump's meeting South Korean president Lee Jae Myung was humiliating for America, Trump's lies and delusions about being a peacemaker, the latest on Iran negotiations, why Australia expelled Iranian diplomats, and Putin's answer to Eurovision. Then, Tommy speaks with Franklin Nossiter, Sahel Analyst at the International Crisis Group, about the complex dynamics in a region where military juntas, jihadists, and foreign powers are all jostling for influence.For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here. For a transcript of this episode, please email transcripts@crooked.com and include the name of the podcast. Get tickets to CROOKED CON November 6-7 in Washington, D.C at http://crookedcon.com
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