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In celebration of Juneteenth, Pulitzer Prize–winning historian David Levering Lewis, author of the definitive two-volume biography of W.E.B. Du Bois, explores Du Bois' life, legacy, and enduring impact on American history, while also discussing his own new memoir, The Stained Glass Window. Jeffrey Rosen, president and CEO of the National Constitution Center, moderates. Resources David Levering Lewis, The Stained Glass Window: A Family History as the American Story, 1790–1958, (2025) David Levering Lewis, W.E.B. Du Bois: A Biography 1868–1963, (2009) American Historical Association, “W.E.B. Du Bois (1868–1963): Historian, Sociologist, Editor, Activist,” Perspectives on History, (2023) W.E.B. Du Bois, The Talented Tenth, (1903) W.E.B. Du Bois, The Souls of Black Folk: Centennial Edition, (2003) W.E.B. Du Bois, Black Reconstruction in America: An Essay Toward a History of the Part Which Black Folk Played in the Attempt to Reconstruct Democracy in America, 1860–1880, (2014) W.E.B. Du Bois and Guy B. Johnson, Encyclopedia of the Negro: Preparatory Volume with Reference Lists and Reports, (1940) David Levering Lewis, W.E.B. Du Bois: The Fight for Equality and the American Century, 1919–1963, Read by Courtney B. Vance, (2001) Stay Connected and Learn More Questions or comments about the show? Email us at podcast@constitutioncenter.org Continue the conversation by following us on social media @ConstitutionCtr. Sign up to receive Constitution Weekly, our email roundup of constitutional news and debate. Follow, rate, and review wherever you listen. Join us for an upcoming live program or watch recordings on YouTube. Support our important work. Donate
SSJ start off the 3rd Hour talking to Matt Besler and Nate Bukaty LIVE in studio. The guys talk about an upcoming charity event that benefits The Battle Within. (https://www.thebattlewithin.org/) Then Steven is joined by Johnathan Thomas who is the CEO of American Century Investments. Johnathan talks to SSJ about the American Century celebrity golf tournament happening in Lake Tahoe July 9th - July 13th.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Send us a textIn this brief episode we talk about the new series that will begin on June 11, 2025. Plus we also talk about the future of this broadcast. This look back at Bob Dole will also mark the end of our look at the Greatest Generation of Americans that overcame a depression, fought World War 2 , and came home to build the American Century while winning the Cold War. Bob Dole's story is their final story on the national political stage. After Bob Dole walks away in 1996, this generation will begin their gradual fading away and into history. We are honored to tell this story about this man who was a true American Hero in every sense of the word. We are not sure where this podcast will be going from here. So, while we lay out the plan for the next 3 seasons of our show, we are also listening for any ideas about the future or whether we are at the end of our run. We look forward to hearing from you as this story unfolds. Thank you for tuning in, this is a joy to be telling these stories.Randal WallaceHost of "The Randal Wallace Presents" Podcast, formerly known as Bridging the Political Gap Questions or comments at , Randalrgw1@aol.com , https://twitter.com/randal_wallace , and http://www.randalwallace.com/Please Leave us a review at wherever you get your podcastsThanks for listening!!
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit andrewsullivan.substack.comRobert is a journalist and historian. He served as president and editor-in-chief of Congressional Quarterly, the editor of The National Interest, and the editor of The American Conservative, and he covered Washington as a reporter for the WSJ for more than a decade. He has written many history books, including the one we're discussing this week: President McKinley: Architect of the American Century. It's a lively read, a fascinating glimpse of fin-de-siècle American politics, and of a GOP firmer on tariffs — but a hell of a lot more virtuous than it is under Trump today.For two clips of our convo — on McKinley's heroism during the Civil War, and the reasons he differs so much from Trump — head to our YouTube page.Other topics: Robert's journalist dad and his conservative influence; his own career as a journo; McKinley's roots in Ohio; his abolitionist parents; his mentor Rutherford B Hayes; his time in Congress; the economic depression of the 1890s; the debate over the gold standard; McKinley's “front-porch strategy” besting the great populist orator William Jennings Bryan; his underrated presidency; his modesty and “commanding quiet”; his incremental pragmatism — in the spirit of Oakeshott's “trimmer”; ushering in American empire; the Spanish-American War; the sinking of the Maine; taking over the Philippines; annexing Hawaii; leaving Cuba to the Cubans; the Panama Canal; McKinley's strong support of tariffs; his later pivot towards reciprocity in trade; his lackluster record on race relations; his assassination by an anarchist; Teddy taking over; his bombast contrasting with his predecessor; trust-busting; McKinley's remarkable marriage; his wife's epilepsy; HW Bush; and if a McKinley type of conservative could succeed in today's GOP.Browse the Dishcast archive for an episode you might enjoy (the first 102 are free in their entirety — subscribe to get everything else). Coming up: Chris Matthews — who just revived “Hardball” on Substack, Tara Zahra on the revolt against globalization after WWI, Walter Isaacson on Ben Franklin, Arthur C. Brooks on the science of happiness, Paul Elie on crypto-religion in ‘80s pop culture, and Johann Hari coming back to turn the tables and interview me for the pod. Please send any guest recs, dissents, and other comments to dish@andrewsullivan.com.
Rural America is Trump country. Last November Trump carried 93 percent of rural counties.. How can Democrats change that? Anthony Flaccavento and Erica Etelson, co-founders of the Rural Urban Bridge Initiative, have a strategy to accomplish that. Also: 20 minutes without Trump: We know a lot about the bad things J. Edgar Hoover did, but it turns out there's a lot we didn't know. In this episode from the archives, Historian Beverly Gage will explain. Her award-winning book is “G-Man: J. Edgar Hoover & the Making of the American Century.” (originally aired in December, 2022)Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
Rural America is Trump country. Last November Trump carried 93 percent of rural counties.. How can Democrats change that? Anthony Flaccavento and Erica Etelson, co-founders of the Rural Urban Bridge Initiative, have a strategy to accomplish that. Also: 20 minutes without Trump: We know a lot about the bad things J. Edgar Hoover did, but it turns out there's a lot we didn't know. In this episode from the archives, Historian Beverly Gage will explain. Her award-winning book is “G-Man: J. Edgar Hoover & the Making of the American Century.” (originally aired in December, 2022)Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
Book review: A Pulitzer winner by Yale Professor Beverly Gage. G-Man: J. Edgar Hoover and the Making of the American Century by Beverly Gage is a monumental biography. It is a revelatory portrait of a colossus who for decades influenced government, policing, race, ideology, politics, federal power and much more.⇨ YOU WILL LEARN: * What this Viking publication is all about* Highlights from the war on Communists and gangsters* Valuable tips for creating your own memoir or biography* How life stories can change history!⇨ FULL ARTICLEClick to read: https://foreveryoungautobiographies.com/g-man/ ⇨ VIDEO PODCASTClick to watch: https://youtu.be/XI08rOyRQNg ⇨ FREE GIFTStructure Success video training: Four steps to plan a life-story outline. FREE training, click to sign up: https://wp.me/P8NwjM-3o⇨ YOUR SAYDo you have a book review recommendation? Leave me a comment below or here https://www.foreveryoungautobiographies.com/contact/⇨ RELATED LINKSBest life stories of 2024: Settle in with an award-winning bookhttps://foreveryoungautobiographies.com/best-life-stories-of-2024/ Best life stories of 2023: Award-winning books to read over the holidays https://www.foreveryoungautobiographies.com/best-life-stories-of-2023/ Book review: A British Book Awards winner and bestseller by Katherine Rundell https://foreveryoungautobiographies.com/super-infinite/ How to make a timeline: What is a timeline + timeline example (plus free printable!)https://www.foreveryoungautobiographies.com/how-to-make-a-timeline/ Writing characters: If you've already tried creating characters, don't read this. It'll break your hearthttps://www.foreveryoungautobiographies.com/writing-characters/ Editing: Don't try self editing before reading this!https://www.foreveryoungautobiographies.com/editing-autobiographies/ ♡ Thanks for listening! Please subscribe if you are new and share or review the show if you found it helpful!Happy writing!⇨ ABOUT MEG'day! I'm Nicola, the founder of Forever Young Autobiographies. I've been a daily print journalist for decades and know how to create life stories! Now I help others do the same to share with family and friends so that unique memories live on.⇨ WEBSITEhttps://www.foreveryoungautobiographies.com⇨ YOUTUBEhttps://www.youtube.com/c/ForeverYoungAutobiographies⇨ FACEBOOKhttps://www.facebook.com/foreveryoungautobiographies⇨ INSTAGRAMhttps://www.instagram.com/foreveryoungautobiographies/
Send us a textOn June 11, 2025, our podcast will embark on the final story in the original thesis we intended to tell when we started this podcast nearly five years ago. On June 11, 1996, exactly 29 years ago, we saw Bob Dole resign his Senate seat, giving one of the most important speeches we ever heard, to pursue full time his bid for the White House. He would be the last of "The Greatest Generation" to do so. In 1992, in the midst of a recession, the Republican Party would be swept out of power losing not only the White House, but the House and Senate as well. On the Federal level of Government, one man stood alone, as the leader of his party. That man was also the last of the World War 2 generation to be left on the national stage. He was Senate Minority leader Robert J. Dole of Kansas. Over the next three seasons we will tell his story and the story of the rise of the modern Republican Party. It will be the final story of National leadership for the generation of people who built the American Century. For all the attention a new generation of Republican leaders would garner, it was in fact, Bob Dole, so often in the shadow of the giants of his age, from Nixon to Reagan to Bush, and who would largely be forgotten in the coming era of Gingrich , Clinton, the second Bush, McCain, and now Donald Trump, who actually led the Republican Party out of the political wilderness and back to power in both houses of Congress, and he was able to do it even as his own efforts to win the Presidency fell short. It was a remarkable final chapter for this greatest of generations and the opening chapter in the career of our host Randal Wallace. This series will be that story too, a story straight from the heart of our host over these next three seasons. As he was an eyewitness, to the last campaign of the very man who would become that last living symbol of the bygone era led by the Greatest Generation. Join us for : Season 15 - Bob Dole 1993 - 1995 The Last Man StandingSeason 16 - Bob Dole The Life that Brought Him There &- The 1995 Resurrection of Bill Clinton Season 17 - Bob Dole 1996 The Campaign of a Lifetime. Questions or comments at , Randalrgw1@aol.com , https://twitter.com/randal_wallace , and http://www.randalwallace.com/Please Leave us a review at wherever you get your podcastsThanks for listening!!
Send us a textIn this final episode of our 14th Season, we watch one era begin and another end. We will tune into the beginning of the Inaugural Ceremony, hearing the great Senator Wendell Ford greet the crowd and introduce the players, which will include, the Reverend Billy Graham who will give the invocation. Then we will listen in as Governor William Jefferson Clinton of Arkansas, the first Baby Boomer President, takes the oath of office and assumes the title 42nd President of the United States. Then we will hear him deliver his Inaugural Address before we fade out and over to the final ceremonies of the tenure of the now former President George H. W. Bush. We will follow him out to the West side of the Capitol as he is escorted by President and Mrs. Clinton out to the Helicopter which will fly him out to Andrews Air Force Base. We will hear some final assessments from ABC News reporter Britt Hume, followed by ABC News Anchormen Peter Jennings and David Brinkley, some final thoughts from our host Randal Wallace, and then the brief departure events at Andrews Air Force Base as President Bush and Mrs. Bush fly off for Houston , Texas and their long retirement. Then we will hear some final thoughts from the President himself as we say farewell to him and his generation of Americans at the end of the era. An era that built the American Century and created the enormously powerful and prosperous country we live in today. But what we didn't know then, that we do know now, is that the Greatest Generation would have one more story to tell, and that will be the subject of our next three season series. Questions or comments at , Randalrgw1@aol.com , https://twitter.com/randal_wallace , and http://www.randalwallace.com/Please Leave us a review at wherever you get your podcastsThanks for listening!!
Scholars have long challenged the common assumption of midwestern isolationism. In Global Heartland, historian Peter Simons reorients the way we look at the critical period in US history from the 1930s through 1950s, showing how farmers across the Midwest understood their work as contributing to an era of international upheaval, geographical reimagination, and global ecological thinking. Here, Simons is joined in conversation with Michael Lansing about the rural heartland, US foreign policy, and the changing and multidisciplinary ways that scholars approach history.Peter Simons is a historian in upstate New York and author of Global Heartland: Cultivating the American Century on the Midwestern Farm.Michael Lansing is a professor of history at Augsburg University and author of Insurgent Democracy: The Nonpartisan League in North American Politics. EPISODE REFERENCES:Arthur Vandenberg: The Man in the Middle of the American Century / Hendrik MeijerThe Heartland: An American History / Kristin HogansonGrasslands Grown: Creating Place on the US Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies / Molly P. RozumBack East: How Westerners Invented a Region / Flannery BurkeSupermarket USA: Food and Power in the Cold War Farms Race / Shane HamiltonNuclear Country: The Origins of the Rural New Right / Catherine McNicol StockLester E. Helland Papers, Wisconsin Veterans Museum, MadisonPraise for the book:“From Lend-Lease to Food for Peace, Global Heartland reveals how rural Midwesterners came to see their farms as being at the heart of the world.”—Kristin Hoganson“This rich and revealing book transforms the way we think about the rural heartland.”—Michael LansingGlobal Heartland: Cultivating the American Century on the Midwestern Farm by Peter Simons is available from University of Minnesota Press.
A personal and cultural exploration of the struggles between art and business at the heart of modern Hollywood, through the eyes of the talent that shaped it Matthew Specktor grew up in the film industry: the son of legendary CAA superagent Fred Specktor, his childhood was one where Beau Bridges came over for dinner, Martin Sheen's daughter was his close friend, and Marlon Brando left long messages on the family answering machine. He would eventually spend time working in Hollywood himself, first as a reluctant studio executive and later as a screenwriter. Now, with The Golden Hour, Specktor blends memoir, cultural criticism, and narrative history to tell the story of the modern motion picture industry-illuminating the conflict between art and business that has played out over the last seventy-five years in Hollywood. Braiding his own story with that of his father, mother (a talented screenwriter whose career was cut short), and figures ranging from Jack Nicholson to CAA's Michael Ovitz, Specktor reveals how Hollywood became a laboratory for the eternal struggle between art, labor, and capital. Beginning with the rise of Music Corporation of America in the 1950s, The Golden Hour lays out a series of clashes between fathers and sons, talent agents and studio heads, artists, activists, unions, and corporations. With vivid prose and immersive scenes, Specktor shows how Hollywood grew from the epicenter of American cultural life to a full-fledged multinational concern-and what this shift has meant for the nation's place in the world. At once a book about the movie business and an intimate family drama, The Golden Hour is a sweeping portrait of the American Century. Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/arroe-collins-like-it-s-live--4113802/support.
Naysayers and fake news spreaders abound in this final hour as even the former treasury secretary takes lisping swings at Trump's tariff plans. The President's top economic advisors celebrate the success America is already seeing, shortly before Nvidia makes a half-trillion dollar announcement that vaporizes the left's lies. Karmelo Anthony gets house arrest after killing another teen by stabbing him in the heart. Make it make sense.
For our sixth episode of "History and our Current World," Jeremi Suri joins Kelly to discuss how policymakers can effectively use historical analogies without falling into the trap of oversimplification. They discuss how examining multiple historical cases rather than relying on a single analogy like Munich or Vietnam can result in better policy outcomes. Jeremi holds the Mack Brown Distinguished Chair for Leadership in Global Affairs at The University of Texas at Austin, and is a Professor in UT Austin's Department of History and the LBJ School of Public Affairs. He is the author and editor of eleven books on contemporary politics and foreign policy, most recently Civil War By Other Means: America's Long and Unfinished Fight for Democracy. His other books include The Impossible Presidency: The Rise and Fall of America's Highest Office; Henry Kissinger and the American Century; Liberty's Surest Guardian: American Nation-Building from the Founders to Obama; and The Power of the Past: History and Statecraft, edited with Hal Brands. Link to Civil War By Other Means: https://www.amazon.com/Civil-War-Other-Means-Unfinished/dp/1541758544 The opinions expressed in this conversation are strictly those of the participants and do not represent the views of Georgetown University or any government entity. Produced by Theo Malhotra and Freddie Mallinson. Recorded on April 7, 2025. Diplomatic Immunity, a podcast from the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy at Georgetown University, brings you frank and candid conversations with experts on the issues facing diplomats and national security decision-makers around the world. Funding support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. For more, visit our website, and follow us on Linkedin, Twitter @GUDiplomacy, and Instagram @isd.georgetown
Joseph S. Nye Jr. is a Harvard University Distinguished Service Professor, Emeritus, and former Dean of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. He has served as assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, as chairman of the National Intelligence Council, and as deputy undersecretary of state for security assistance, science and technology. In a recent survey of international relations scholars, he was ranked as the most influential scholar on American foreign policy, and in 2011, Foreign Policy named him one of the top 100 Global Thinkers. His most recent book, published in 2024, is “A Life in the American Century.” His other books include “The Power to Lead,” “The Future of Power,” “Presidential Leadership and the Creation of the American Era,” and "Is the American Century Over?” He is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the British Academy, and the American Academy of Diplomacy. He received his bachelor's degree summa cum laude from Princeton University, won a Rhodes Scholarship to Oxford University, and earned a PhD in political science from Harvard. Ralph Ranalli of the HKS Office of Communications and Public Affairs is the host, producer, and editor of HKS PolicyCast. A former journalist, public television producer, and entrepreneur, he holds an BA in political science from UCLA and a master's in journalism from Columbia University.Scheduling and logistical support for PolicyCast is provided by Lilian Wainaina. Design and graphics support is provided by Laura King. Web design and social media promotion support is provided by Catherine Santrock and Natalie Montaner. Editorial support is provided by Nora Delaney and Robert O'Neill.
Liberals won't like it, but according to the Seattle based historian and podcaster Daniel Bessner, Trump's wannabe imperial presidency is a “natural outgrowth” of the centralized power of the FDR presidency. In a provocative Jacobin piece, Bessner contends that executive power has been expanding since FDR, with the U.S. President increasingly becoming an "elected monarch." The leftist Bessner criticizes American liberals for both obsessing over the fictional specter of fascism and for failing to address the economic inequality that enabled the rise of Trump. And he expresses pessimism about meaningful reform, arguing that 21st century capitalism has become too entrenched for significant changes without some dramatic external shock. 5 Takeaways from the Bessner Interview* Trump's presidency represents a continuation of American traditions rather than fascism, with his immigration policies echoing historical patterns like the Palmer Raids and McCarthyism.* The significant shift under Trump is his aggressive tariff policy against China, which represents a departure from decades of neoliberal economic approaches.* Presidential power has been expanding dramatically since FDR (who issued over 3,700 executive orders), creating what Bessner calls an "elected monarch" with increasingly unchecked authority.* The failure of liberal leadership, particularly Obama's inadequate response to the 2008 financial crisis and insufficient economic redistribution, created the conditions for Trump's rise.* Bessner expresses deep pessimism about the possibility of meaningful reform, suggesting that capitalism has become too entrenched globally for significant democratic changes without some external shock like climate disaster or war.Daniel Bessner is an historian and journalist. He is currently the Anne H.H. and Kenneth B. Pyle Associate Professor in American Foreign Policy in the Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies at the University of Washington. He previously held the Joff Hanauer Honors Professorship in Western Civilization and is also a Non-Resident Fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, an Associate of the Alameda Institute, and a Contributing Editor at Jacobin. In 2019-2020, he served as a foreign policy advisor to Bernie Sanders' presidential campaign; in 2024, for unclear reasons, the Russian government sanctioned him. Daniel is an intellectual historian, and his work has focused on three areas of inquiry: the history and contemporary practice of U.S. foreign relations; the history and theory of liberalism; and, most recently, the history and practice of the entertainment industry. He is the author of Democracy in Exile: Hans Speier and the Rise of the Defense Intellectual (Cornell, 2018), which you may order here. He is also the co-editor, with Nicolas Guilhot, of The Decisionist Imagination: Sovereignty, Social Science, and Democracy in the Twentieth Century (Berghahn, 2019), which you may order here; and the co-editor, with Michael Brenes, of Rethinking U.S. World Power: Domestic Histories of U.S. Foreign Relations (Palgrave, 2024), which you may order here. In addition to his scholarship, he has published pieces in The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Guardian, The New Republic, The Nation, n+1, and other venues. In July 2022, he published a cover story in Harper's Magazine titled “Empire Burlesque: What Comes After the American Century?”; in May 2024, he published a cover story, also in Harper's, titled “The Life and Death of Hollywood: Film and Television Writers Face an Existential Threat,” which was also republished as the cover of the Italian magazine Internazionale.Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting the daily KEEN ON show, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy interview series. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children.Keen On America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe
Unlocked Patreon episode. Support Ordinary Unhappiness on Patreon to get access to all the exclusive episodes. patreon.com/OrdinaryUnhappinessIn a perfect pairing with our ongoing series on Lacan, we come in from the cold and go underground by watching Theodore Flicker's neglected classic, “The President's Analyst” (1967). James Coburn stars as a psychoanalyst drafted to serve as the president's shrink, and who swiftly goes from starstruck to depleted to a fugitive on the run. This satiric romp hit a nerve with the FBI, was censored in post-production, and quickly disappeared from theaters. A loving sendup of psychoanalysis, an acid-addled dramatization of Cold War anxieties, and just a gonzo all-around-good time, the film gives us plenty to talk about, from the paranoic structure of knowledge to the Big Other of surveillance to unorthodox cures for “hostility” to J. Edgar Hoover's secret flirtations with self-analysis and more. Beverly Gage's biography of J. Edgar Hoover is G-MAN: J. Edgar Hoover and the Making of the American Century. You can listen to Barry McGuire's “Inner-Manipulations” (featured in the film) here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WU7F_u9L5X8Have you noticed that Freud is back? Got questions about psychoanalysis? Or maybe you've traversed the fantasy and lived to tell the tale? Leave us a voicemail! (646) 450-0847 A podcast about psychoanalysis, politics, pop culture, and the ways we suffer now. New episodes on Saturdays. Follow us on social media: Linktree: https://linktr.ee/OrdinaryUnhappiness Twitter: @UnhappinessPod Instagram: @OrdinaryUnhappiness Patreon: patreon.com/OrdinaryUnhappiness Theme song: Formal Chicken - Gnossienne No. 1 https://open.spotify.com/album/2MIIYnbyLqriV3vrpUTxxO Provided by Fruits Music
J. Edgar Hoover is one of the most polarizing figures in U.S. history. And the seeds he planted as the decades long founding director of the FBI continue to shape much of today's conservative political landscape. Kash Patel, who now leads the FBI, has openly vowed to find ways to punish Trump's political enemies. While that's appalling, it's not the first time an FBI director has used abused institutional power. There's a lot of historical precedent that we can compare and contrast with the current moment. Beverly Gage is a historian at Yale University and the Pulitzer Prize-winning author of “G-Man: J. Edgar Hoover and the Making of the American Century.” She joins WITHpod to discuss Hoover's influence, the politicization of the FBI, the abuse of its power, the FBI in Trump 2.0 and more.
The biggest counterfactual that hangs on the assassination of JFK is this: Would JFK have launched a ground war in the jungles of Vietnam? Don Wildman and his guest Fredrik Logevall explore what might have happened if JFK didn't die.Fredrik Logevall is a Pulitzer Prize winning historian at Harvard who is working on a definitive three-part biography of JFK. The first volume is out now, JFK: Coming of Age in the American Century, 1917-1956.Produced by Freddy Chick. Edited by Aidan Lonergan. Senior Producer was Charlotte Long.Sign up to History Hit for hundreds of hours of original documentaries, with a new release every week and ad-free podcasts. Sign up at https://www.historyhit.com/subscribe. You can take part in our listener survey here.All music from Epidemic Sounds.American History Hit is a History Hit podcast.
American history, Clay Risen reminds us, has an uncanny knack of repeating itself. In Red Scare, his important new book about blacklists, McCarthyism and the making of modern America, Risen suggests that Trump and MAGA have happened before. First as the tragedy of Joe McCarthy then as farcical Donald Trump? Or might today's latest chapter in the paranoid style of American history actually be its most consequential and thus tragic?Here are the 5 KEEN ON AMERICA takeaways in this conversation with Risen:* Historical Parallels to Today: Risen suggests that there are striking parallels between the McCarthy era and current American politics under Trump, with similar tactics being used to target perceived enemies and "others" within society. The infrastructure created during previous periods of paranoia (like the FBI and certain immigration laws) is being repurposed in the present day.* Bipartisan Nature of the Red Scare: While often associated with Republicans, the Red Scare had bipartisan elements. Risen explains that Democrats like Harry Truman implemented loyalty programs, and figures like JFK positioned themselves carefully regarding anti-communist sentiment. This challenges the notion that such movements are solely partisan.* Targeting Vulnerable Groups: Both historically and today, political movements often target the most vulnerable groups first. During the Red Scare, Risen explains that was suspected communists and homosexuals; today, transgender people face similar targeting as political pawns and scapegoats.* Impact Beyond the Obviously Political: Risen reminds us that the Red Scare affected ordinary Americans across many sectors - teachers, Hollywood professionals, government workers - whose lives were ruined based on rumors, associations, or past affiliations. This led to widespread conformity as people self-censored to avoid scrutiny.* The Role of Institutions as Backstops: Risen is cautiously optimistic about how America's current paranoid periods might end. He suggests that the judicial system (particularly the Supreme Court) represents the most effective backstop against MAGA excesses, much as the Warren Court eventually helped end McCarthy-era abuses of civil liberties.Clay Risen, a reporter and editor at The New York Times, is the author of Red Scare: Blacklists, McCarthyism, and the Making of Modern America. His other recent books include The Impossible Collection of Whiskey (October, 2020) and Single Malt: A Guide to the Whiskies of Scotland (October, 2018). He is also the author of the spirits bestseller American Whiskey, Bourbon & Rye: A Guide to the Nation's Favorite Spirit, now in its sixth printing with more than 100,000 copies sold. It is widely considered the bible on American whiskey and placed Risen among the leading authorities on the history, business, and diversity of U.S. spirits. Risen has served as a judge on multiple spirit award committees, including the prestigious Ultimate Spirits Challenge. In addition to Red Scare, Risen is the author of The Crowded Hour: Teddy Roosevelt, the Rough Riders and the Dawn of the American Century, a New York Times Notable Book of 2019 and a finalist for the Gilder-Lehrman Prize in Military History; A Nation on Fire: America in the Wake of the King Assassination; and The Bill of the Century: The Epic Battle for the Civil Rights Act. A graduate of the Georgetown School of Foreign Service and the University of Chicago, Risen grew up in Nashville, Tennessee, and now lives in Brooklyn, New York, with his wife and two children. Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting the daily KEEN ON show, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy interview series. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children.Keen On America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe
VettaFi's Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the American Century US Quality Value ETF (VALQ) on this week's “ETF of the Week” podcast with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.”
Visit us at Network2020.org.The Trump administration's recent foreign policy decisions—including the pause on foreign aid, the closure of USAID, and an assertive approach to negotiations—have raised questions about the trajectory of U.S. soft power. In a world where power is increasingly diffuse and economic and political relationships are fuzzy, what will be the role of soft power in shaping international norms and achieving diplomatic goals? The cyclical nature of soft power, particularly in contrast to China's expanding global footprint, underscores the need to contextualize these shifts within broader geopolitical trends.Join us for a discussion with Professor Joseph Nye, University Distinguished Service Professor, Emeritus and former Dean of the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, and former Chair of the National Intelligence Council. His latest book A Life in the American Century traces the rise and transformation of U.S. power while contemplating the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. A leading thinker on soft power, Professor Nye will put Washington's recent actions into context, highlighting how they have influenced America's global standing. As countries navigate evolving trade dynamics and strategic realignments, this conversation will explore whether U.S. soft power can adapt to an increasingly competitive international landscape.Music by Sergii Pavkin from Pixabay.
President Donald Trump has found inspiration for tariffs and more in the 25th President of the United States: William McKinley. This hour, we look at the life and legacy of McKinley, and why Trump is drawn to him. Plus, we'll learn about the Gilded Age and its parallels to today. GUESTS: Kevin Kern: Associate Professor of History at The University of Akron. He is co-author of Ohio: A History of the Buckeye State Beverly Gage: Professor of 20th-century U.S. history at Yale University. Her newest book, G-Man: J. Edgar Hoover and the Making of the American Century, received the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Biography. Joan Antonson: Executive Director of the Alaska Historical Society Support the show: http://www.wnpr.org/donateSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Welcome back to Manufacturing an American Century! Today, I had the pleasure of talking with Laura Teicher, the president and executive director of FORGE, a nonprofit that's laser-focused on helping hard tech entrepreneurs turn their prototypes into real-world solutions. FORGE is filling a crucial gap in the manufacturing ecosystem, making sure that companies working on physical products—whether it's next-gen solar panels or AI-driven industrial systems—get the connections and support they need to scale and succeed.Laura walked us through FORGE's unique approach, which isn't your typical incubator or accelerator. Instead, FORGE acts as a matchmaker between innovators and the manufacturers who can help bring their ideas to life. And they do it all with a deep commitment to local manufacturing, helping strengthen regional economies while reducing global supply chain risks and emissions. We also got into Laura's personal passion for climate-focused innovation and sustainable economic development, which drives her work at FORGE. She sees firsthand how manufacturing and hard tech solutions can tackle some of the world's biggest challenges, from climate change to supply chain resilience. If you're an entrepreneur, a manufacturer, or someone looking to help build America's hard tech future, FORGE is a resource you need to know about. That's it for today's episode—keep innovating, keep making, and let's manufacture a stronger future together!AMCC's podcast is made possible in part by the expertise of Mike McAllen, founder of Podcasting4Associations. Are you part of an association also looking to produce a podcast? Let us get you in touch with Mike.Thank you to the Economic Development Administration for their partnership in producing this podcast. This podcast was prepared in part using Federal funds under award 3070145 from the Economic Development Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Economic Development Administration or the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Pres. Trump admires Pres. Polk and Pres. McKinley - two presidents who expanded America's territories in an age when territorial expansion was a measure of national success. In this interview, my guest compares Pres. Trump with Pres. Polk and Pres. McKinley. He also explains Manifest Destiny, and indulges my questions about what I term 'America's Manifest Destiny 2.0'. Mr. Merry also talks about America's Men of Destiny. So I ask him this: Is Pres. Trump a Man of Destiny?
Since Kash Patel was announced as the director for the FBI, pundits have warned of a return to the era of J. Edgar Hoover, who ran the bureau for 48 years. But according to Beverly Gage, the author of G-Man: J. Edgar Hoover and the Making of the American Century, under Patel, the FBI could be politicized in ways that even its notorious first director would have rejected. This week, Micah and Beverly discuss how Hoover established a playbook for weaponizing the FBI, and how Patel might go even further. On the Media is supported by listeners like you. Support OTM by donating today (https://pledge.wnyc.org/support/otm). Follow our show on Instagram, Twitter and Facebook @onthemedia, and share your thoughts with us by emailing onthemedia@wnyc.org.
Hey everyone, Matt Bogoshian here! On this episode of Manufacturing an American Century, I sit down with Mark Hedstrom, CEO of the Skilled Careers Coalition, to discuss the big-picture challenge of getting more young people into skilled careers. We dig into why these careers—especially in manufacturing—are essential for America's future and why we need to shake the outdated stigma around them.Mark shares how his background in philanthropy and collective impact work is helping to bring together education, industry, and entertainment to reach more students and parents. We also get into how storytelling (and yes, even TikTok) plays a massive role in getting young people to see skilled careers as a smart and fulfilling option.And for those working in workforce development, Mark lays out some ideas on how we can better connect regional best practices and scale them up nationwide. Plus, we talk about the power of partnerships—like how Warner Bros. Discovery is using entertainment to spotlight these career paths. Give it a listen, and let's talk about how we can go further, faster in solving this workforce challenge together!AMCC's podcast is made possible in part by the expertise of Mike McAllen, founder of Podcasting4Associations. Are you part of an association also looking to produce a podcast? Let us get you in touch with Mike.Thank you to the Economic Development Administration for their partnership in producing this podcast. This podcast was prepared in part using Federal funds under award 3070145 from the Economic Development Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Economic Development Administration or the U.S. Department of Commerce.Links to Learn More:The SkillsUSA National Conference is happening this June—if you're in workforce development, you don't want to miss it!Students: March 1 is the deadline to register if you want to compete at the SkillsUSA national competition.Find Mark on LinkedIn.Learn more about Skilled Careers CoalitionFollow AMCC on Linkedin.Find Matt on Linkedin.Visit our website.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
What can we learn from President William McKinley's leadership, and how does his legacy compare to the modern political landscape? In this fascinating conversation, historian and journalist Robert W. Merry joins ISI to discuss his latest book, President McKinley: Architect of the American Century.McKinley, often overshadowed by his more flamboyant successors, was a transformational figure who reshaped America's global role and set the stage for the 20th century. Merry breaks down McKinley's underrated statesmanship, his approach to economic and foreign policy, and his impact on American conservatism.The discussion takes an intriguing turn as McKinley's leadership is compared to Donald Trump—examining their similarities in political realignment, media battles, and their roles as champions of the "forgotten American."
How did we get here, with Trump returning to the White House? Harold Meyerson of The American Prospect comments on the 93 million people who could have voted – but didn't –and on Trump's Day One executive orders.Also: Now that Trump is preparing to round up and deport undocumented residents, we want to thank them for everything they've done to make America good. Gustavo Arellano will explain – he's a columnist for the LA Times whose father came to the US in the 1960s in the trunk of a Chevy.Plus: Twenty Minutes without Trump. Today: J. Edgar Hoover: We know a lot about the bad things he did, but it turns out there's a lot we didn't know. Historian Beverly Gage will explain. Her award-winning book is “G-Man: J. Edgar Hoover & the Making of the American Century.” (originally broadcast in December, 2022.)
Witness to Yesterday (The Champlain Society Podcast on Canadian History)
In this podcast episode, Simon Nantais talks to Asa McKercher and Michael D. Stevenson about their co-edited book North of America: Canadians and the American Century, 1945-60, which will be published by UBC Press in October 2023. North of America: Canadians and the American Century, 1945-60, is an edited volume that looks at postwar Canada and Canadian-American relations of the 1940s and 1950s. From constitutional reform to transit policy, from national security to the arrival of television, Canadians were ever mindful of the American experience. The volume explores the opinions and perceptions of a broad range of Canadians – from consumers to diplomats, jazz musicians to urban planners, and a diverse cross-section in between. Asa McKercher and Michael D. Stevenson discuss the topics covered in the volume such as international relations in a nuclear armed early Cold War era, domestic politics, and national identity. Asa McKercher is an assistant professor of history at the Royal Military College of Canada. His publications include Canada and the World Since 1867 and Canada and Camelot: Canadian-American Relations in the Kennedy Era. Michael D. Stevenson is a professor of history at Lakehead University. He is the author of Canada's Greatest Wartime Muddle: National Selective Service and the Mobilization of Human Resources in Canada during World War II and editor of the 1957–58 volumes of Documents on Canadian External Relations. Image Credit: Office National du Film du Canada / Bibliothèque et Archives Canada If you like our work, please consider supporting it: https://bit.ly/support_WTY. Your support contributes to the Champlain Society's mission of opening new windows to directly explore and experience Canada's past.
Nvidia shares are back on the run as the stock looks to close about $150 a share for the first time since November. Kristina Partsinevelos tells us what's at stake when CEO Jensen Huang speaks tonight. Plus, our all-star panel of Trivariate's Adam Parker, NewEdge's Cameron Dawson and American Century's Mike Rode debate where stocks could be headed this year. Former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan tells us what he thinks is most important to the market right now. And, PIMCO's Erin Browne breaks down her playbook for 2025.
This time around, Langdon and Eden dive into the question of geo-political narratives and the stories we tell ourselves, specifically about the "American Century" and it's dubious decline. Then, they dive deep into Oh God, the Sun Goes, the debut novel by David Connor. State of mind, Pynchon-esque misconnections, hazy realities, and the power of the desert, combine into a flawed but highly moving book! Music played: Caelestra - Lightbringer https://caelestra.bandcamp.com/track/lightbringer The Great Old Ones - Me, the Dreamer https://thegreatoldonessom.bandcamp.com/track/me-the-dreamer
In this episode, author and former lawyer John Oller joins Cole Smead to discuss his book, “White Shoe: How a New Breed of Wall Street Lawyers Changed Big Business and the American Century.” Oller explores the evolution of elite law firms in America and their influence on business and politics, delving into key historical figures, pivotal legal cases, and the rise of the modern corporate lawyer.
In this episode of Cosmic Top Secret, host Michael John Williams is joined by Ben Steele, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of The World That Wasn't: Henry Wallace and the Fate of the American Century. Together, they dive deep into the fascinating yet polarizing life of Henry Wallace, former U.S. Vice President under FDR, and his role in shaping (and almost reshaping) mid-20th-century American and Soviet foreign policy.Music is considered “royalty-free” and discovered on Story Blocks.Technical Podcast Support by Jon Keur at Wayfare Recording Co.
Trade globalization has created immense prosperity for the U.S. and the global economy. It's literally lifted millions of people out of poverty over the past several decades. The Chinese economy, in particular, has transformed dramatically as a result of its trade with the U.S. Other of our trading partners have benefitted as well. As our partners have accumulated U.S. currency, they've invested this money into U.S. bonds, which has helped us subsidize our budget deficit and national debt. The decisions we make concerning tariffs over the next couple years may have dramatic impacts on our domestic economy. Richard Duncan, author of “The Money Revolution, How to Finance the next American Century,” has a prescription for future growth and prosperity that entails investing in industries and technologies that will cement U.S. geopolitical preeminence. Richard is also the publisher of Macro Watch, a video-newsletter that analyzes the forces driving the economy and the financial markets in the 21st Century.
After the election, there was a hurricane of postmortems attempting to explain why Kamala Harris lost to Donald Trump. Eschewing small-bore analysis, historian Daniel Bessner posted on X, "I feel like people are missing the fundamental lesson of the election: it is not the Democratic Party that is in crisis; liberalism itself is in crisis." Liberalism—the dominant political philosophy of the American Century—appears to be a spent force amid a wave of illiberal populism and anti-establishment politics. In this episode, Bessner, who co-hosts American Prestige podcast, delves into the origins of liberalism's rise and apparent decline in this post-post-Cold War period. Further reading: Empire Burlesque: What Comes After the American Century? by Daniel Bessner (Harper's)
If the 20th century was the American Century then, for Kishore Mahbubani, the controversial Singaporean writer and diplomat, the 21st century is the Asian Century. In his new memoir, Living the Asian Century, Mahbubani - Singapore's longtime permanent representative at the United Nations - offers what he calls an “undiplomatic memoir” of Singapore's rise from an impoverished outlay of the British empire into the world's wealthiest country. It's quite a story and Mahbubani tells it in his own bluntly undiplomatic way. Kishore Mahbubani is a Distinguished Fellow at the Asia Research Institute (ARI), National University of Singapore (NUS). Mr Mahbubani has been privileged to enjoy two distinct careers, in diplomacy (1971 to 2004) and in academia (2004 to 2019). He is a prolific writer who has spoken in many corners of the world. In diplomacy, he was with the Singapore Foreign Service for 33 years (1971 to 2004). He had postings in Cambodia, Malaysia, Washington DC and New York, where he twice was Singapore's Ambassador to the UN and served as President of the UN Security Council in January 2001 and May 2002. He was Permanent Secretary at the Foreign Ministry from 1993 to 1998. As a result of his excellent performance in his diplomatic career, he was conferred the Public Administration Medal (Gold) by the Singapore Government in 1998. Mr Mahbubani joined academia in 2004, when he was appointed the Founding Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKY School), NUS. He was Dean from 2004 to 2017, and a Professor in the Practice of Public Policy from 2006 to 2019. In April 2019, he was elected as an honorary international member to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, which has honoured distinguished thinkers, including several of America's founding fathers, since 1780. Mr Mahbubani was awarded the President's Scholarship in 1967. He graduated with a First Class Honours degree in Philosophy from the University of Singapore in 1971. From Dalhousie University, Canada, he received a Master's degree in Philosophy in 1976 and an honorary doctorate in 1995. He spent a year as a fellow at the Center for International Affairs at Harvard University from 1991 to 1992. He has achieved several “firsts” in his two careers. He was the Founding Dean of the LKY School, the founding Director of the Civil Service College, the first Singapore Ambassador to serve on the UN Security Council, the first Singaporean to publish articles in globally renowned journals and newspapers like Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the New York Times and the Financial Times and co-authored articles with distinguished global thought leaders like Kofi Annan, Klaus Schwab and Larry Summers. Mr Mahbubani has never shied away from taking on new challenges. He is also a prolific author, having published nine books: Can Asians Think?; Beyond the Age of Innocence; The New Asian Hemisphere; The Great Convergence; Can Singapore Survive?; The ASEAN Miracle (co-authored with Jeffery Sng); Has the West Lost It?; Has China Won?; and The Asian 21st Century, an open access book which has received over 3 million downloads. His memoir, Living the Asian Century, will be released in August 2024. Mr Mahbubani has received significant international recognition for his many accomplishments. The Foreign Policy Association Medal was awarded to him in New York in June 2004 with the following opening words in the citation: “A gifted diplomat, a student of history and philosophy, a provocative writer and an intuitive thinker”. He was listed as one of the top 100 public intellectuals in the world by Foreign Policy and Prospect magazines in September 2005, and included in the March 2009 Financial Times list of Top 50 individuals who would shape the debate on the future of capitalism. He was selected as one of Foreign Policy's Top Global Thinkers in 2010 and 2011. In 2011, he was described as “the muse of the Asian century”. He was selected by Prospect magazine as one of the top 50 world thinkers for 2014.Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting KEEN ON, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy show. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children.Keen On is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe
Member of Veterans For Peace, John Wilborn, discusses the book "On Shedding an Obsolete Past: Bidding Farewell to the American Century" (by Andrew J. Bacevich, November 2022), in the context of the state of the country and the political parties after the 2024 elections. VFP Radio Hour is a monthly one-hour program hosted by veteran members of Veterans For Peace Chapter 168, Louisville. We present a variety of programs based on issues of war, peace, social justice and veteran issues. Airs on Forward Radio WFMP-LP Louisville 1065.fm and https://forwardradio.org.
In this episode of Manufacturing an American Century, I sit down with Jonathan Gruber, MIT economist, and co-author of Jumpstarting America. Jonathan and I talk about the shifting landscape of government-funded science and the challenges of reigniting regional economic growth through strategic investments.We discuss how the U.S. government's role in funding research has fundamentally changed since the 1960s, why it matters for economic growth, and how tech hubs around the country can be the key to revitalizing local economies. Jonathan explains how the clustering of talent in a few superstar cities has held back broader prosperity—and outlines a bold vision for a future where regional investments drive national innovation.We also explore the need for a long-term portfolio approach to science funding, rather than short-term thinking, and what structures are necessary to make this ambitious vision a reality. Tune in to hear why this matters now more than ever, especially as we look towards building a more inclusive, sustainable, and resilient economy.AMCC's podcast is made possible in part by the expertise of Mike McAllen, founder of Podcasting4Associations. Are you part of an association also looking to produce a podcast? Let us get you in touch with Mike.Thank you to the Economic Development Administration for their partnership in producing this podcast. This podcast was prepared in part using Federal funds under award 3070145 from the Economic Development Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Economic Development Administration or the U.S. Department of Commerce.Participants:Dr. Jonathan Gruber, Ford Professor of Economics and the Chairman of the Economics Department, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMatt Bogoshian: Executive Director, American Manufacturing Communities Collaborative and host of the podcast. Key Ideas:Government Science Investment Decline: Since the 1960s, U.S. government investment in science has significantly declined, dropping from 2% of GDP to around 0.5% today. This reduction has had a major impact on the nation's capacity for innovation and growth.Public Investment Drives Private Investment: Contrary to popular belief, public investment in science can stimulate private investment, not crowd it out. Jonathan highlights the importance of government leadership in creating environments where private innovation can flourish.Long-Term Structures for Sustainable Growth: Building sustainable economic growth requires long-term structures and patience. Jonathan emphasizes that developing new tech hubs is a decades-long process that demands persistent support and investment.Links to Learn More:Find out more about Dr. Jonathan Gruber.Find his book, co-authored by Simon Johnson, titled Jump-Starting America: How Breakthrough Science Can Revive Economic Growth and the American Dream.Follow AMCC on Linkedin.Find Matt on Linkedin.Visit our website.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
It would still prove to be the American Century, but now it was overshadowed by the threat of the atom's power. Air raid shelters were built in public buildings. Families dug and poured concrete in their backyards to construct personal bomb shelters. Food was stocked, with water, batteries, Bibles, bunk beds and lawn chairs. The US government produced films on how to survive an atomic war, and what our duties as citizens were in that event. Don't believe me? Find the documentary The Atomic Café and decide what the government and military were trying to sell us. I was one of the millions of kids who learned to survive (perhaps?) an atomic blast by ducking and covering under my desk at school. At least survive the initial blast. The radiation was a different story. It was all responsible for an underlying uneasiness at all times, a subtle terror. This coupled perfectly with the feelings of unseen threat and malaise that film noir captured. The style or genre was at the end of its first and classic cycle in the US by the mid 50s and the height of anti-Communist and atomic fear. But it had a final entry that pulled it all together with a director and cast that was little equaled, then or now --- Robert Aldrich's 1955 Kiss Me Deadly, a classic film noir and fundamental influence on the French New Wave and auteurs such as Godard and Truffaut, as well as extending into the modern era, as we shall see next month. Distributed by United Artists, it had a winding path to excellence, but it's now widely acknowledged as a mainstay of noir, stuffed with talent.Website and blog: www.thosewonderfulpeople.comIG: @thosewonderfulpeopleTwitter: @FilmsInTheDark
Keith discusses the current state of the US economy, noting that while it is considered strong by conventional measures, there are four major threats on the horizon that the country is not doing enough to address. He's joined by our guest, macroeconomic expert, Richard Duncan to discuss these topics. Richard proposes a solution that could strengthen the US's competitive position against China. Shifting from Capitalism to Creditism. Also, hear about the risks facing the real estate and stock markets in the near-term, such as the historically high wealth-to-income ratio and the ongoing quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve. Learn more about Richard's work through his video newsletter, Macro Watch. Use discount code GRE for 50% off at: RichardDuncanEconomics.com Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/527 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript: Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai Keith Weinhold 0:01 Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, per conventional measures, today's us. Economy is strong, but there are four vicious threats on the horizon, and we're not doing enough about them. Our macroeconomist guests will discuss that with us today. How alarming is it, and what's the solution to our crises, this week on get rich education, Speaker 1 0:27 since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com Corey Coates 1:12 You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education. Keith Weinhold 1:28 Welcome to GRE from Fort Wayne, Indiana to Fort Lee New Jersey and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are back inside get rich education. We've been here for you, every single week since 2014 coming off of an election last week, this spurs more macroeconomic thought, monetary and fiscal policy, and more than that. And you know, one thing that I'm always looking for are signs of inflation versus deflation, because we live in a long term inflationary world. Well, you wouldn't keep a million bucks under a mattress because it would only be worth 300k in a few decades. But in deflation, you would flip your strategy and actually be a saver. You might keep millions out of the mattress, because deflation would actually increase the purchasing power of every single one of your dollars. Now, I've got a pretty unpopular take for you here at some point, probably now you've got to give the Fed credit for a soft landing. And what does a soft landing mean? Exactly. It means bringing down inflation without putting the economy into a recession. Well, inflation is down to about 2% now, unemployment is still low, near 4% and GDP growth for last quarter came in at 2.8% okay, yes, I sure understand that those benefits are distributed unevenly, but at this point, how much more of a soft landing Do you really want? And by the way, this sure doesn't mean that I love the Federal Reserve. I mean, they get no credit from me for not jumping on inflation sooner, when it peaked two and a half years ago, or even before that point, well, those high consumer prices as a result of that are still with us, and that's a problem, and they got that part wrong. We're about to talk with our global macroeconomic expert, really. He is one of the foremost authorities in the entire world today. We're going to talk about four major catastrophes the US economic future faces. One of those four is our ballooning national debt and deficit. And to review that for you, first, the debt is our overall accumulation of debt over the years now at 36 trillion. And when it comes to these awful, dreadful debt and deficit issues, I will ask our guests the question, when is it game over? Where is that tipping point? What would need to happen and the deficit? Okay, that refers to the annual shortfall, the annual thing, that shortfall that our bloated government keeps coming up with at the end of every year, all right, so therefore revenue minus spending equals deficit. Another way to say that is income minus expenses equals a deficit when the expenses are greater than the income. Well, that figure is near $2 trillion we're spending 2 trillion more than we raise in revenue each year. And here's an example. I'll use real world numbers rounded off to the nearest trillion. So if the government's annual revenue is only 5 trillion and you have to subtract out spending, which is 7 trillion, that could. Gives us an annual deficit of 2 trillion, pretty simple stuff, and that more or less gets added onto our overall debt of 36 trillion. Another major problem is this growing competition from China. Yes, I know that people like to discuss their demographic problems, but still, their population is more than four times the US population, and you learn about what other advantages they have over us and what we direly need to do to catch up. In our guests opinion, these issues incur some rather detailed explanations. So I'm really going to let our guest expert takeover for a while today, this weekend, I will be in San Antonio, Texas. San Antonio is an uptrending real estate market because they are really a beneficiary in distribution with their proximity to Mexico in the near shoring movement that's taking place. And then I will be in Austin, Texas, for a few days, Austin is one of the few major US metros that have seen rents substantially decline recently. I'll bring you next week's show from Austin, where I might talk more about that. Then, from the 20th to the 24th of this month, I'll be in New Orleans at the famed New Orleans investment conference, where they're pulling out all the stops at the 50th anniversary of the event, and that is the longest running investment event in America and perhaps the world. I hope to meet some of you there in New Orleans, just like I do each time I'm at the event. Let's talk about the bigger picture economy that your real estate and investments float within next. This week's guest is the author of four books analyzing the crises that brought the global economy to the brink of collapse in recent decades. One of the books forecast the 2008 global financial crisis with great accuracy. We're going to discuss future crises here today, before we're done, he has worked as an equities and Investment Analyst, and then he went on to hold some rather esteemed roles at the World Bank in DC and as a consultant to the IMF in Asia. He joins us from Thailand today. He now publishes a video newsletter called macro watch, and long time listeners know that today's guest was also this show's very first guest that was back on GRE podcast episode seven, only 10 years ago now, in November 2014, and he's really become quite the friend of the show, and we've looked out for each other ever since. It's terrific to have back global macro economist Richard Duncan Richard Duncan 7:46 Keith, hey, thank you for having me back. It's great to speak with you again. Keith Weinhold 7:50 Oh, it's so good to have you here an entire decade of our lives. And as times change, economies are surely dynamic, and you're so good at spotlighting crises and explaining them in a way to people that they can understand. So Richard, why don't you talk to us now about risks facing the nation? Yes, I'm talking about the United States. Richard Duncan 8:15 A lot of podcasts focus on all the problems the United States is facing, and it is certainly true that the United States is facing very serious risk. So I'd like to start off this conversation telling you what I think the greatest risk facing our country are. There are four main things I'd like to hit on. The first is something you mentioned to me before in our exchange of emails, is that the US government does have a very high level of government debt relative to GDP, and the budget deficits are large. So that's problem number one. Problem number two, in my opinion, looking at this from where I live in Asia, is that the United States is at risk of being conquered by China in the not too distant future. Risk Number Two. Risk Number three, we have very serious domestic political divisions within the United States. Risk Number four is that our post capitalist economic system, which I call creditism, must have credit growth to survive. If credit contracts, then our economy will spiral into a Great Depression that will be probably worse than the one of the 1930s so those are the big four problems that we have, and it doesn't do anyone any good just to talk about our country's problems if you don't offer a solution to them. So in my opinion, all of these problems can be overcome by accelerating economic growth in the United States, while all of these problems would be made very much worse by anything that causes us economic growth to slow down. The way to make the US economy grow much faster is to have the US Government finance a very, very large investment in the industries and technologies of the future over the next 10 years, starting immediately. The alternative austerity would cause the economy to spiral down into deflation. We'd like your listeners to think of austerity when they hear the word austerity. I'd like them to think of the word death. It's austerity is equal to death. Yeah, the US doesn't have to be a declining power. The first American Century doesn't have to be the last. It can be the first of many. The solution for driving the US economy to grow much more rapidly and solving all four of the problems that I mentioned above is a US sovereign wealth fund. Thank heavens. Both parties now support the establishment of a US sovereign wealth fund. On September 5, former President Trump came out in support of establishing a US sovereign wealth fund, and on the following day, the Biden administration said, then working on this for months and had a plan that they were developing. So this is fantastic news for the United States. It offers great hope for solving all of our greatest problems. And I'd like to spend, you know, a few minutes explaining to your listeners what a US sovereign wealth fund is, yes, urgently necessary, and why both parties have now come to understand why this is important to establish. Keith Weinhold 11:27 Yeah, please tell us why you think the US sovereign wealth fund is so urgently needed, and what it is because for even longer than the 10 years since you were first here, for about 15 years now, you have championed and promoted this US sovereign wealth fund. You discussed it on CNBC Squawk Box and all over the place. Last year, you presented about it in a speech in DC to 15 members of the House, Ways and Means Committee. So tell us about the US sovereign wealth fund and why you think it's urgently needed. Richard Duncan 11:56 Let's begin with, what is a sovereign wealth fund? Well, effectively, a sovereign wealth fund is where a country invest in individual companies or even in startups. There are sovereign wealth funds all around the world. Norway has the largest, Singapore has two very effective ones called gdic and Temasek, which had been enormously profitable and successful, and it made the people in Singapore much richer. So a sovereign wealth fund in the United States would be an investment bond financed by the United States government with the US. This investment fund would take stakes in existing companies and also in startup companies, hopefully on a very large scale. Now, some people have asked, Why is this framework necessary? Why do we need a sovereign wealth fund to do that when the government is already making investments in the military, for instance, and funding some R and D research? Well, the difference between what the government is doing now and a sovereign wealth fund is with a sovereign wealth fund, the government would actually keep equity stakes in these companies that they invest in, meaning that when these companies they invest in become enormously profitable, the profits would be owned by every American. The Americans would have the equity stakes in all of the investments that this sovereign wealth fund makes. And it would be a situation where the government provides the financing, but the private sector manages the companies. The government just finances these companies in new industries and new technologies, and the government has the ability to invest on a very much larger scale than the private sector does. For example, The United States has a lot of great companies in the private sector that have accomplished really, truly great things in recent years and long past as well. But these private sector companies cannot invest on the same scale that the Chinese government can. The Chinese government is investing on a much larger scale than any of the American companies could ever dream to invest on. And that's explains why China is overtaking us now technologically, and if they continue to invest at a rapid rate that they're doing currently, then before long, there are going to be far ahead of us technologically and therefore economically, and more worryingly, militarily, the US government has the ability to invest truly on a multi trillion dollar scale over the next decade in new industries and technologies, things like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, nanotech, biotech, genetic engineering and developing energy sources like fusion, and it has the ability to do this on such a large scale that it would be certain to succeed. And once these companies start creating cancer vaccines or fusion, for instance, they would be enormously profitable, and they could be listed on. NASDAQ at multi trillion dollar valuations, and the American public would own equity stakes in these companies, and would then would directly reap the rewards of these profits that these companies would generate. That is what a sovereign wealth fund is, why it's desperately needed, is, well, first of all, we should do it, because we can easily afford to do it. And the results, the breakthroughs, the technological breakthroughs and medical miracles that these sorts of companies would produce, would we really have the shot of curing all the diseases and radically extending life expectancy, developing sources of limitless energy that would bring down the cost of energy radically. Just across the board, it would induce a technological revolution that would turbo charge us economic growth, create UNDRIP wealth, and at the same time, shore up US national security in the face of this growing threat from China. So for all of those reasons, it is urgently necessary. In my opinion. Keith Weinhold 16:04 both Norway and Singapore have had similar models to this. US sovereign wealth fund, and we certainly think of those two nations as prosperous places, tell me more about why it's a success so the government finances it does that incentivize companies to therefore take more risk? Richard Duncan 16:25 It allows them to invest more. It allows them to invest on a much larger scale than that. Could if they have to rely on their own funding sources. Rather than investing millions of dollars, they could invest billions of dollars or 10s of billions of dollars. For instance, at the moment, the National Cancer Institute in the United States, this annual budget is $6 billion a year. $6 billion a year is not curing cancer. If we look back a few years ago, the Fed was creating $120 billion a month through quantitative easing per month. So with just 5% of one month of QE, you could double the National Cancer Institute's budget. Now that's not what this sovereign wealth fund would do. That just illustrates the scale. How much greater the scale would be that the government could invest on relative to what is currently being invested at the moment by the government and by the private sector combined. Keith Weinhold 17:28 Do any critics ever ask about Wait? Is this too much government intervention into the free market? Is this a move away from capitalism? What do you say to those sort of critics? Richard Duncan 17:38 I say to them that capitalism died in World War One. It certainly didn't survive the 20th century. Now the government. In the 19th century, we had capitalism. The government had very little involvement in the economy then and gold was money. But now gold is no longer money. The Fed creates some money. Government spending is something like nearly $7 trillion out of a GDP. That is around just not quite $30 trillion yet. So the government has been directing the economy going back at least since World War Two. This hasn't been capitalism for a very long time. Under capitalism, the private sector made investments, and some businessmen would make profits from their investments, and they would save that profit as capital and reinvest that capital. That's how capitalism grew. That's why they called it capitalism. It was based on capital accumulation and investment. But that's not how our economic system has worked for decades. Our system now is not driven by investment and saving by the private sector. It's driven by credit creation and consumption and more credit creation and more consumption and our economies has now been transformed from capitalism. It has evolved into creditism, with the government playing the directing role. So total credit in the United States, just last quarter blew through $100 trillion for the first time. By what I mean by total credit is the same thing as total debt. Total credit is equal to total debt. So this is all the debt of all sectors of the economy, the government sector, the household sector, the corporate sector, the financial sector, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac all the sectors of the economy, it just went through $100 trillion and Breda ism has created very rapid growth, especially all around the world, not only in the United States, because it has allowed the US economy to grow so rapidly and to import so much from other countries that this is why The Asian miracle occurred. I've lived through the Asian miracle because the US has been running massively large trade deficits since the early 1980s and all these countries in Asia have been running massively large trade surpluses, and all this spending that the Americans have been doing has been fueled by this rapidly. Radically expansion of credit. Total credit first went through $1 trillion in 1964 now it's $100,000,000,000,000. 60 years later. Now our system is not capitalism. The government is very involved. Anytime there's any problem with the economy, the government steps in. In 2008 the government prevented a new Great Depression when the private sector the households defaulted on their debts and caused all the banks to fail, and Freddie Mac did fail and had to be taken over by the government. So at that time, we narrowly avoided a Great Depression, because the government increased its budget deficits by more than a trillion dollars a year for four years in a row, and the Fed expanded. The Fed created three and a half trillion dollars between the end of 2007 and 2014, expanding its balance sheet by about five times. So that's not capitalism. We don't have capitalism. So people who are worried about us abandoning capitalism. They're behind the times that happened a long time ago. That shouldn't be a concern. They should be aware now that we are competing against players who don't play by the capitalist rules of little government intervention in the markets we're now competing against China, and China is one giant sovereign wealth fund intent on dominating the world by investing very aggressively in new industries and technologies. In the year 2000 the United States invested, I think, 10 times as much in research and development as China did. But now China is actually investing more in research and development and the US is and that explains why China is ahead in so many areas of technology. They had 5g years before we did. They are the leaders in electric vehicles and batteries. We have to put up 100% tariffs to keep out electric vehicles from China because they're so much better than our electric vehicles. They dominate solar panels. And are worse, they have hypersonic missiles and we don't, and I'm sure they have other military advantages that we don't, because they invest much more aggressively in new industries and technologies than our government does. And if we don't rectify this quickly, then we are soon going to be overtaken by China militarily, and our national security is at risk, much more than most Americans understand. But this realization has slowly grown on policymakers in Washington, and now both parties are worried about this, and this is why we have this growing fear of China, and why we have proposals to limit technology transfers to China, and this is why we've done things like the chips and science act, where the government has agreed to finance a $280 billion investment in new industries and technologies a couple of years ago, with 50 billion of that going into setting up manufacturing facilities within the in the US to create semiconductors, rather than relying solely on Taiwan to obtain all of our semiconductors, because China could take Taiwan at any moment, and then then he would end up with all the semiconductor chips that go into powering artificial intelligence. And whoever develops Artificial General Intelligence first is going to rule the world, and therefore it had better be the United States rather than China, because we don't want to live in a world dominated by China, believe me. Keith Weinhold 23:26 Well, a lot of macro voices agree with you. About two months ago, we had the president of the Mises Institute here, and the way he characterized things are in the United States. 100 years ago, we had islands of socialism in a sea of capitalism, and today we merely have islands of capitalism in a sea of socialism. Do you see the US sovereign wealth fund being able to solve all four of the United States big problems that you outlined, debt and deficit conquering by China, political division and creditism. Can it solve all four of those? Richard Duncan 24:04 Yes, it can. So as you know, Keith, a couple of years ago, I published my fourth book. It was called the money revolution. Yeah? How to find the book? Sure, yeah. How to finance the next American century. It was a subtitle. Now I argue that it would be very easy for the US to invest on a multi trillion dollar scale, new industries and new technologies over the next decade, and if we do that through a sovereign wealth fund, then would generate so much growth and be so profitable that instead of causing the government debt to increase, it would actually make the economy so much larger and generate so many more tax revenues, and the government would make so many profits from these companies that it has equity stakes in that it would reduce the government debt in absolute terms, and radically reduce the government debt relative to GDP, which would grow far faster than it has been growing in recent decades. This problem, number one, solved the high level of government debt. A high level of debt to GDP just make the GDP grow a lot faster, and the ratio of debt to GDP will go down. Problem number two is the US is at risk of being conquered by China. We can out invest China. We can invest more than China can afford to invest. We still have the best universities and the best entrepreneurs and scientists. So if we invest on a large enough scale, we will win, and China will not conquer us. Third, if the economy is growing at 7% a year instead of 1% a year, that is going to alleviate a lot of the domestic tensions that exist currently, much of the reason there's the origins of this domestic political divide that we're now suffering from in the US is because such a large part of the population has been left behind when all the factories moved overseas, countries like China and Vietnam, we de industrialized, and the people who Used to have good factory jobs, good, unionized, high paying factory jobs. All those people were left out in the cold, and they're not happy about it. And so if our economy were growing much more rapidly, these people would have much better jobs and much higher salaries, and they would be much happier than they are at the moment. And the final one was our post capitalist system of creditism requires credit growth to survive. So if the government is financing these investments on a multi trillion dollar scale, it's going to make credit expand, and that's going to keep the economy expanding. So yes, it would solve all four of those problems. Keith Weinhold 26:35 One of those four problems is the debt and the deficit. I want to dive into that more with Richard as it becomes more and more problematic in the United States, and just how far we can kick this can down the road. You're listening to get rich education. We're talking with macro economist Richard Duncan. More, we come back. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold. Oh, geez. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. So your bank is getting rich off of you. 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They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridgelendinggroup.com that's Ridgelendinggroup.com Jim Rickards 28:40 this is Author Jim Rickards. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream. Keith Weinhold 28:55 Welcome back to get rich education. We are going big this week, talking about the global economy, although mostly centered on the United States, with macroeconomist Richard Duncan. You can learn more about him at RichardDuncaneconomics.com and Richard I want to talk about the debt in the deficit. The debt is the United States overall debt as it accumulates year after year, and the deficit is just the annual thing, and it's so interesting and concerning. When I look at this, when you look at the line items in the United States government's annual spending, we now see that interest payments are taking the second largest chunk, only to Social Security. Social Security's number one interest is the second biggest expense, even more than defense spending and on Medicare. So I just wonder, as I see the interest payments going up and up and up and projected to be our greatest expense every year. You know, one thing I think about Richard is when our interest payments alone exceed our. Revenue somewhere down the road, is that when it's game over, or is that when we're on the way to game over? So can you talk to us about really, where the concern crops up with the deficit, like I talked about, and with the debt that's now at about $36 trillion Richard Duncan 30:17 deficit and debt is a real problem. It was the first problem that I mentioned when we kicked off the conversation. There are two components of that. One is the fact that government debt has been increasing very rapidly. At the end of 2007 total government debt was around $9 trillion by 2014 it had doubled to $18 trillion because the government had to respond to the collapse of the private sector in 2008 and prevent us from having a great depression at that time, and then after 2014 it has doubled again, from 18 trillion to $36 trillion now, much of that was due to the need for the government to keep us from having another Great Depression during COVID When government stimulus amounted to about $5 trillion and the Fed created a similar amount over just a two year period. So now we have a much higher level of government debt. But the second component of that is that interest rates are very much higher than they used to be. The federal funds rate went up from 0% a few years back to a high of five and a quarter, actually a range between five and a quarter and five and a half. And recently, the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points. But you can still say it is 4.9% let's call it 4.9% so interest rates are far higher than they used to be, but they don't have to remain high. The reason interest rates went up is because the Fed increased the federal funds rate. And the reason the Fed increased the federal funds rate is because we had high rates of inflation. Inflation peaked at 9% or so in 2022 but most recently, the CPI has come back down to 2.4% and the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, that PCE Price Index, has come down to 2.2% and that means that the federal funds rate, which is 4.9% is more than twice as high as the inflation rate is. That shows us that we have very tight monetary policy, and the Fed should be able to reduce interest rates very rapidly going forward. They've told us in their dot plot projections that they expect that interest rates will end this year the federal funds rate at 4.4% and then in next year, at 3.4% and 2026 at 2.9% so that reduction in interest rates will bring down the cost of the total interest expense that you mentioned as being so high currently, the risk, however, is that we get a rebound in inflation. We're inflation to surge again, then interest rates won't come down. In fact, they could go higher. So all of my career, more or less, has been spent in Asia. And the main theme that is run through the global economy, the development of the global economy over the last three and a half decades has been globalization, globalization in the form of us running very large trade deficits with other countries. Literally, the US current account deficit since the early 1980s has been $15 trillion meaning countries with the trade surpluses have had a $15 trillion trade surplus, and that's why they've all been transformed economically as a result of their trade surplus with the US, but what the US got out of this was the ability to buy things made with very low cost labor, and that was extremely disinflationary, that drove down the inflation rate in the US, and that allowed interest rates in the US to come down to very low levels that we've seen during most of this century, Up until the time COVID started. The real danger is now, if we do impose very high trade tariffs on China and our other trading partners, then that will cause a very serious spike in inflation. And it won't just be one off, because, of course, when the tariffs are put in place, that will immediately cause everything to be that much more expensive. The US companies importing goods from abroad would have to pay that tariff, then those US companies would pass those higher expenses on to the consumers, so we'd get an immediate spike in inflation. But that would also mean that the companies abroad it wouldn't be so profitable for them to have their manufacturing facilities abroad, they would try to bring those back home. And given that the unemployment rate in the US is so low already, only 4.1% there's not enough labor to allow these manufacturing facilities to come back to the US and start producing goods in the US. So that would cause an upward spiral. In wages and the wage push inflation spiral of the type that we had in the late 1960s and early 1970s so that is a In other words, tariffs would put an end to globalization, and that would cause a such a severe spike in inflation and interest rates, it would essentially be the death nail for creditism, which requires credit growth to survive. The end of globalization would mean this end of this 30 year global economic boom that the world has enjoyed, and therefore it is a very severe threat, and it would push up the interest expense of the US government, which you let off with, instead of lower interest rates, bringing down the interest expense the government has to pay every year, we would have instead higher interest rates, which would make the amount that the government has to pay on its interest even higher than it is at the moment, and make the budget deficit even larger than it is at the moment, and Make the government debt grow even faster than it's growing at the moment. So let's hope that doesn't happen. Instead, the better approach is to invest, to have the government finance large scale investments in new industries and technologies make the economy grow much more rapidly and we can grow our way out of this debt problem that we're currently in, Keith Weinhold 36:21 yes more inflation, whether that comes from higher tarrifs or any other sources, will lead to higher interest rates to counteract that higher inflation, which will Yes, pump up the deficit in the debt that much more. And you know, one thing that I like about Richard is, you know, a lot of people complain about things, or say, what are we going to do? Or Things look bad, and Richard is saying some of that, but he offers a way forward with the US sovereign wealth fund, like he talked about before, investing our way out of it. So Richard, if we don't invest in this debt and deficit situation gets worse. It could be a hard question to answer, but I'd like your best guess at how far can we kick the can down the road? When is it game over? How big do our interest payments on the debt and deficit have to get? Richard Duncan 37:10 the game is never over. No matter how bad things become, humanity will survive and carry on. So even in the Great Depression, people made it through, even through World War Two that resulted, largely as a result of the Great Depression. A lot of people died. 60 million people died, but the game didn't end. So regardless of how bad the economic system system were to become, humanity will survive and there will be a solution. Now, a lot of people put forward that, the idea that they point out that we have this high level of government debt, and their solution is to reduce government spending. The government spends something like $6.8 trillion last year. That was the amount the government spent. The budget deficit last year was 1.8 trillion so in order to eliminate the budget deficit, the government would have to spend $1.8 trillion less. In other words, it would have to cut its spending by 27% but the government cut its spending by 27% they're going to happen. The economy would immediately spiral into a depression. So even that reduction in spending wouldn't balance the budget, because the government revenues would collapse, and they would have even fewer tax revenues, so the deficit would still be there, the economy would collapse, and the unemployment rate would be 20 plus percent, and would just fall further behind China and be at greater risk from a national security perspective, and much more miserable As a society overall. That's why it's always say people should consider think of the words austerity and death at the same time, because austerity would bring about the collapse of our economic system and the Great Depression unless your civilization would survive it. trying to answer your question more directly, how high could this go? Well, governments don't default on their debt when push comes to shove. If the government's having a hard time paying interest on its debt, the Fed will just print more money. And in a case where between 2008 and 2014 when the Fed created three and a half trillion dollars, they printed a lot of money at that short space of time, and they got away with it without having high rates of inflation. The highest rate of inflation we had during that period was 3.8% in 2011 and by the early months of 2015 we had deflation again for a few months. Prices actually fell negative CPI for a few months in 2015 so if we have a global economy, as we do at the moment, full of we have nearly 8 billion people, I would guess 2 billion of them at least live on less than $5 a day. So the US could get away with having a lot of paper money printing without having higher, very high rates of inflation and the government could finance itself that way for quite a long time. Of course, if we have a closed domestic economy brought about by extremely high tariff barriers, then we would end up with hyperinflation in the United States. But even with hyperinflation, it would be very painful for people who have all their cash in the bank or under their mattress, but people with assets, those asset prices would appreciate more or less in line with the inflation, and it would erode the government debt relative to the size of the economy, because the GDP would grow in nominal terms very rapidly because of the hyperinflation, and the debt, which is not inflation adjusted, would be evaporated away by the inflation. Keith Weinhold 40:43 right? that's why here at GRE we are all invested and aimed toward prudent use of leverage with assets like real estate and we sure have been the beneficiaries of that wave of inflation that followed COVID there. Richard, well, we're talking about the debt and the deficit somewhat, which, interestingly, has actually doubled since the first time you were here on the show. When you were here, 10 years ago, it was at 18 trillion, and today it's at 36 trillion. We talked about, how far can you kick the can down the road back then? Well, here we are, 10 years later, and it's doubled. Talk to us. You know, you talked previously about the greatest risk to the United States economy. Tell us now, as we are investors here on this show, about the greatest risk to the real estate and stock market, I would just say within the next year. What are some of those risks to those particular markets? Richard Duncan 41:38 We've already discussed the main risk that high tariffs would potentially cause a new spike of inflation and force the Fed to hike interest rates rather than cutting interest rates. But there are some other risk as well. One is the fact that we already have a very high level of wealth relative to income. Let me back up a second. You were talking about debt doubling since we first spoke 10 years ago. Here's another statistic for you. Just in the last four and a half years, the total wealth of the Americans, all of their assets minus all of their liabilities. In other words, household sector net worth. Since the end of 2019 it has increased by $47 trillion in four and a half years. That's about a 40% increase. Now, $47 trillion is enough to pay off the entire US government tip, which we've been worrying about with $11 trillion left over. So not everything is as bleak as it sounds on the surface. We've had a huge explosion of wealth in the last four and a half years that's been driven by property and also by stocks. The problem now is, is that the level of income the asset prices, are very inflated relative to their historic norms. And one of the ratios that I always keep an eye on is called the wealth to income ratio. It takes the household sector net worth. In other words, the wealth that we were just discussing, which, by the way, is now $164 trillion of wealth owned by the Americans. The wealth divided by income, disposable personal income, this wealth to income ratio is now an extraordinarily high level. The ratio is 785% whereas the average of that ratio going back to 1950 has been 550% the previous two peaks were in the year 2000 when it hit 620 during the NASDAQ bubble, and then that bubble popped, and the stock market crashed, and we had a recession, and it went back to 550 and then it surged to a new peak of 680 during the property bubble. And then that bubble popped, and we almost went into a depression, and that a lot of wealth was destroyed. We had a severe recession. The government had to bail us out from and that ratio went back to 550 again. Now it is just off the charts relative to its previous peaks, because people 680 now it's 785 so people used to suggest that higher asset prices were justified because interest rates were near 0% but even after the Fed hiked interest rates from near 0% to about 5% The asset prices have stayed inflated. That does suggest that asset prices are very inflated and therefore very vulnerable to any sort of shock that could occur, whether geopolitical or economic or domestic political problems. So that's a concern. Another concern is quantitative tightening is still occurring. Quantitative tightening is the opposite of quantitative easing. When, with quantitative easing, the Fed creates money and pumps it into the financial markets, and that tends to make asset prices go up, and it also tends to make interest rates on government debt stay low, because if it pushes up bond prices, it pushes down. Bond yields. Well, now the opposite is occurring. Over the last two years, the Fed has destroyed roughly $2 trillion it created $5 trillion from the end of 2019 till about 2022 during the COVID pandemic, and the policy response to that, the Fed created $5 trillion but now it's destroyed 2 trillion of that five that it created, and is still destroying dollars at the rate of about $60 billion a month, or $700 billion a year. And as it does, as it destroys dollars, it takes dollars out of the financial system, which all other things being the same, tends to make financial conditions tighter, putting upward pressure on bond yields and downward pressure on asset prices. So as this continues, this is a concern, because reduce the liquidity in the system by another $700 billion if it continues for another year, having said that there is still an enormous amount of excess liquidity in the system as a result of all of the money that the Fed has created, going back to 2008 I estimate that the excess liquidity is somewhere around three and a half trillion dollars. If you look at bank reserves and the reverse repos at the Fed is about three and a half trillion dollars of excess liquidity, and the Fed actually has to pay interest to the banks on their bank reserves to hold interest rates up. That's how the Fed controls the federal funds rate now. It pays the banks roughly right now, 4.8% interest on all of the banks bank reserves, and so the banks will not lend money to anyone at less than 4.8% interest, because the Fed will pay them 4.8% interest. Why would they lend to anyone else for less if it suddenly stopped paying interest on these bank reserves, these banks would look around and where would they invest their three and a half trillion dollars in? No one's going to pay them 4.8% or even 3.8% or 2.8% interest rates would plunge because of all the excess liquidity that exists. So this excess liquidity has been a thing that's been driving the economy since COVID started, and it's why we've managed to avoid recession, which everyone is expected to arrive any moment now for the last two and a half years. So there are concerns, but there are also, as always, other reasons for optimism. Keith Weinhold 47:24 Well, that wealth to income ratio that Richard talked about, that's a calculation that you yourself can do. One's net worth is almost eight times their income now, which is at a historic high, which is one concerning point that Richard brought up. Well, Richard, I want you to tell us about your terrific video newsletter, macro watch unless you have any other last thoughts first. Richard Duncan 47:51 well, just one last word on the US sovereign wealth fund. Thank you very much for giving me a chance to discuss that and to explain why both Democrats and Republicans are now in favor of establishing a US sovereign wealth fund, one of the few issues that has bipartisan support. And this must come as a surprise to many of your listeners and most Americans, in fact, why have both parties agreed on really setting up a US sovereign wealth fund? So I'm glad I've had a chance to explain it and why it's so urgently necessary. I'd just like to emphasize the extraordinary benefits that this delivers to the American people, both individually and at a national level, individually, in terms of medical breakthroughs and better health and much more rapid economic growth for the economy, so much more wealth and much more national security as well. So I hope the Americans will get on board with this idea and give it their full support, because it's exactly what our country needs to solve all the four issues, the major issues that I laid out at the beginning of this conversation. But with that said, if your listeners would like to learn more about my work, Macrowatch. Microwatch is a video newsletter. Every couple of weeks, I upload a new video discussing something important happening in the global economy and how that's likely to affect the stock market, property, currencies and commodities. They can find macro watch on my website, which is RichardDuncanEconomics.com that's RichardDuncanEconomics.com Macro Watch has been going on now for 11 years, they'll find more than 100 hours of videos in the microwatch archives. They can begin watching immediately, and they'll receive a new video every couple of weeks. And I'd like to offer your listeners a subscription discount. If they go to Richard Duncan economics.com and hit the subscribe button, they'll be prompted to put in a discount coupon code, if they put it in G, R, E, they can subscribe to macro watch at a 50% discount. That's great. That's GRE so I hope they'll check that out, and at the very least, they can sign up there for my free blog and follow my work that way. Keith Weinhold 49:56 And I have benefited from consuming macro watch content myself over the years, allowing me to sort of stretch my thought process and go macro, which we don't always do as real estate investors. Oh, Richard, it's been valuable as always, and you really offered a solution, a way forward here, something that's really refreshing. It's been great as always, having you back on the show. Richard Duncan 50:18 Yeah. Thank you very much. I look forward to the next time Keith Weinhold 50:21 me too. when it comes to the term capitalism, if that's truly a system that we're no longer in, you know, it seems to get replaced with the word meritocracy, and that is a word that I like, meritocracy, where producers get rewards for being productive, but even that is under attack, and the government just always seems to be stepping in with a safety net. Seemingly everywhere you look, it won't let banks fail. We saw them jump in early last year with Silicon Valley Bank and other bank failures, the government won't let homeowners fail either. I mean, you don't have to think back very far with mortgage loan forbearance in the COVID era, on issues of the debt and deficit. Even Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself has called it unsustainable. That's the word that he used. Like Richard said today, we won't default. We'll just print more. So when it comes to the inflation versus deflation tug of war, the future keeps looking inflationary, but at what rate of inflation? That's what I don't know, and no one really knows. If you like Richard Duncan's content, and you sort of wished he and I's conversation would go on. Well, he is a regular guest here, so I expect him back. But if you're telling yourself, I want more of his content and I want to make it visual at the same time to help really bring this to life, well, visit RichardDuncanEconomics.com hit the subscribe button and get 50% off. That's five zero, 50% off with the discount code. GRE. Happy Veterans Day. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream. Speaker 2 52:17 Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice, please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively you Keith Weinhold 52:46 The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com
The national debt has climbed to nearly $35 Trillion dollars. Many economists believe this will produce unavoidable inflation and increased interest rates. As of this year, however, U.S inflation has been largely tamed and come back down to historical norms. This has largely been the result of global supply chains opening back up, and the overall impacts of globalization. Richard Duncan, author of “The Money Revolution, How to Finance the next American Century,” has a prescription for future growth and prosperity that entails investing in industries and technologies of the future that will cement U.S. geopolitical preeminence. Richard is also the publisher of Macro Watch, a video-newsletter that analyzes the forces driving the economy and the financial markets in the 21st Century.
In this episode of Manufacturing an American Century, I sit down with Josh Cramer. At the time of our recording, Josh was serving as the Director of Education and Workforce Development at America Makes and has now gone on to another important position, now the Associate Vice President - Workforce Development at BlueForge Alliance. In the pod, we talk about the intersection of technology and workforce development in manufacturing. Josh and his team are tackling a big challenge—getting small-to-mid sized manufacturers (SMMs) to adopt technologies like 3D printing, which can transform not only products but entire manufacturing processes, businesses and communities. And we're not just talking about technical training here; America Makes knows that workforce development includes educating both students and incumbent workers, showing people how they can apply new tech in practical ways that deliver value and make products that solve problems.A big theme today of our discussion is the “national strategy with a local impact” model that America Makes follows. Josh explains how real change is happening at the regional level and why initiatives must respect and adapt to local needs. He also shares how 3D printing and additive manufacturing bring incredible entrepreneurial opportunities—not only for big businesses but for everyone, like the “Tech Moms” program that helps mothers in Utah return to the workforce with new skills.If you're curious about what it takes to drive national manufacturing growth at a local level, or how additive technology is making big waves in traditional industries, this episode is packed with insights you won't want to miss. Thanks again Josh!AMCC's podcast is made possible in part by the expertise of Mike McAllen, founder of Podcasting4Associations. Are you part of an association also looking to produce a podcast? Let us get you in touch with Mike.Thank you to the Economic Development Administration for their partnership in producing this podcast. This podcast was prepared in part using Federal funds under award 3070145 from the Economic Development Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Economic Development Administration or the U.S. Department of Commerce.Participants:Josh Cramer, Fmr. Director of Education and Workforce Development at America Makes, now Associate Vice President - Workforce Development at BlueForge AllianceMatt Bogoshian: Executive Director, American Manufacturing Communities Collaborative and host of the podcast.
When will all the craziness be over? It's the question that seems to be on every American's mind, and one that many have asked both Russell Moore and George Packer, author and staff writer at The Atlantic. Moore and Packer discuss the exhaustion and rage that have become common in our politics. They discuss partisanship, profitability, and pessimism. They talk about the historical events that have led to our current realities, the effects of secularization on culture, and what it might take for Packer to believe there is a God—and why Packer still, despite all of the chaos, can't forgo his hope for humanity. Resources mentioned in this episode or recommended by the guest include: George Packer "What Will Become of American Civilization? Conspiracism and Hyper-Partisanship in the Nation's Fastest-Growing City” by George Packer at The Atlantic The Unwinding: An Inner History of the New America by George Packer The Assassins' Gate: America in Iraq by George Packer Blood of the Liberals by George Packer Facing Unpleasant Facts: Narrative Essays by George Orwell, compiled and with an introduction by George Packer Our Man: Richard Holbrooke and the End of the American Century by George Packer David French Mere Christianity by C. S. Lewis The Anxious Generation: How the Great Rewiring of Childhood Is Causing an Epidemic of Mental Illness by Jonathan Haidt Montaigne's Tower Click here for a trial subscription at Christianity Today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
When Donald Trump praises foreign dictators—from Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un to Viktor Orban and Vladimir Putin—the typical reaction is shock and dismay. But in fact, Beverly Gage points out in a recent essay in Foreign Affairs, such admiration is not uncommon in American politics. And Trump's embrace of overseas autocrats is just one of the unsettling features of American civic life today that has a more prominent place in U.S. history than most observers would like to think. Gage, a historian at Yale, has written extensively about contemporary U.S. politics, ideology, and social movements, and is the author of G-Man: J. Edgar Hoover and the Making of the American Century. She spoke with Foreign Affairs senior editor Kanishk Tharoor on October 17 about the historical parallels that help us understand today's fraught politics—as well as what set this moment apart. You can find transcripts and more episodes of The Foreign Affairs Interview at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/foreign-affairs-interview.
Capital Area Planning's Malcolm Ethridge, American Century's Mike Rode and Obermeyer Wood's Ali Flynn Phillips tell us where they think the rally is headed. Plus, top wealth advisor Richard Saperstein reveals his year-end playbook. And, Phil Lebeau explains what's behind the drop in Boeing's stock today.
American global leadership is due in great part to its innovators — visionaries who drive society beyond the preconceived limits. Historically, government-led initiatives like the Manhattan Project or the Apollo Project pushed boundaries. Today, too often, government lags behind technologically.Today on Faster, Please! — The Podcast, I talk with Katherine Boyle about American Dynamism, the spirit of pro-progress innovation, and how a new generation of Silicon Valley startups is spurring government to break out of its old habits.Boyle is a general partner at VC giant Andreessen Horowitz, having previously been a partner at General Catalyst and a general assignment reporter at The Washington Post. She primarily invests in national security, aerospace and defense, and public safety companies, among others.In This Episode* American Dynamism (1:25)* From software to the physical world (7:23)* Government collaboration: challenges & opportunities (11:29)* Playing the long-game in Washington (21:16)* Building the American Dream (24:35)Below is a lightly edited transcript of our conversationAmerican Dynamism (1:25)Let's just start with a little bit of definition about American Dynamism. Broadly, what challenges or problems is this effort directed toward?It's a bit of a long story as to what American Dynamism is, how it arrived to be a category of innovation, but the short definition is American Dynamism is built for companies that support the national interest. So a very broad category of companies, everything from aerospace, defense, national security, companies that sell directly to the US government and to our allies, but also things like housing, education, transportation, infrastructure, things that are built in the physical world where Washington or states usually like to regulate those things.So one of the things that we saw in our own portfolio is that there are a lot of companies that we used to be classifying as “enterprise” or “consumer,” and really what they were were government companies because they had to interface with a regulator much earlier in their trajectory, or they saw government as a potential buyer of the product. So in cases of things like aerospace and defense, those are very obvious government buyers, but things like public safety, where we have companies like Flock Safety, for example, that started out selling to homeowners associations thinking they were a consumer company, but ultimately got extraordinary pull from local governments and from public safety officials because of how good the technology was. So the companies, in some ways, they were these N-of-One companies, really solving really important civic problems, but over time it became very clear that this was a growing category of technology.But the broader underlying thesis, I'd say, of where the movement came from, and when we really started seeing this as an area where founders, in particular, were excited to build, I think it did come out of “It's Time to Build,” my partner Mark Andreessen's canonical post where he basically said during Covid that we have to be able to build things in the physical world. And there was sort of this realization that technology has solved many, many problems in the digital realm that I think, in some ways, the last 15 years of the Silicon Valley technology story has really been about changes in consumer technology or changes in the workplace, but now we're finally seeing the need for changes in government and civic goods, and there's just an extraordinary amount of momentum from young founders who really want to build for their country, build for the needs of the citizenry.Does it change what you do, or maybe the kinds of expertise that are needed, to think about these things as a category, rather than different companies scattered in these other kinds of categories. Thinking of them as like, “Oh, there's some sort of commonality,” how is that helpful for you?The thing that's interesting is that there's sort of a “yes” and “no” part to that question. The yes is that the founders are coming from different places. So the companies that have led to this sort of, I would say, extraordinary wealth of engineering talent where people are not afraid to tackle these problems, there's a handful of the companies that have scaled: it's companies like SpaceX, companies like Palantir, where, 20 years ago, they were banging their heads against the wall trying to figure out, “How do we sell to government?” In many cases, they had to sue the government in order to be able to sell and compete against the larger incumbents that have been around for, in many cases, 50, 70 years. But now you have these talented engineers who've sort of seen those playbooks, both in terms of, they understand what good engineering looks like, they understand the pace of innovation, how quickly you have to bring new products to market, and they also understand that you have to be in touch with your customer, constantly iterating.And so you now have companies that have scaled in these categories where there is this nice thing that happens in Silicon Valley, and I always say it's a mark of a really successful company when three, four, five years into the journey, you start seeing the early people at that company say, “Well, I want to solve this problem,” or “I want to go be a founder, myself,” and they start building more companies. So I think that, in some ways, the natural order of how Silicon Valley progresses, in terms of, do you need to have different expertise, or are there different talent pools? Yes, they're coming from different companies, but it's the same story of Silicon Valley Dynamism, which is, someone comes in, I always joke, they go to the University of Elon Musk and they learn how to manufacture, and then they say, “Well, actually, I don't want to just work on rockets anymore, I'd like to work on nuclear.” And so then you have companies like Radiant Nuclear that have spun out of SpaceX several years ago that are building in a totally different category for the built world, but have that sort of manufacturing expertise, that engineering expertise, and also know what it's like to work in a highly regulated environment.Does it require a different expertise, then, to advise these companies because of that government interface?I think in some ways it does, yes, the types of people who are investing in this category, maybe there's a number of investors where they got their start at Palantir, for example, or they understand the early journey of SpaceX. But at the same time, the thing that I think has been most surprising to us is just how quickly this movement caught on among the broader Silicon Valley ecosystem. And I think that's a very good thing, because, at its core, these are software companies in many cases. Yes, they're building hardware, but software is the lever that's allowing these companies to scale. So you are seeing the traditional venture capital firms that used to say, “Oh, I would never touch anything that is operating in the physical world,” or the meme you had five years ago, which is, “You'll never be able to sell anything to the US government, I'm not wasting my money there.” You've seen a complete 180 in the Silicon Valley ecosystem in terms of venture firms where they're now willing to take bets on these types of companies.And you're also seeing, there's a number of founders where their first company, for example, might've done very well, and it might've just been pure software, or in a consumer enterprise, sort of a more classical Silicon Valley domain, and now you're seeing those founders say, “Actually, I want to build for the civic need. I want to build for the national interests. These are issues I care about.” And so you're seeing those founders actually decide to build in the category and team up with founders who maybe have a little bit more experience in government, or maybe have a little more experience in terms of how they're building in the physical world.From software to the physical world (7:23)That period you referred to, which seems like a lot of what Silicon Valley was doing with the first 15 years or so of this century: they're doing internet, social media, very consumer-facing. How valuable was that period? Because that is a period that, here in Washington, is much criticized as trivial, “Why wasn't Silicon Valley solving these huge problems like we did in the '60s?” Again, there were some critics who just looked at it as a waste of brainpower. To what extent is that a fair criticism, and do you think, is that unfair? That stuff was valuable, people valued the kinds of products that were producedYou would actually be better able to speak to this than me, but I'll say, the graph or the chart that's going viral today, as we speak, is the comparison of 2009 US GDP versus Eurozone GDP, which were roughly equal in 2009, coming right off the Great Recession, to today, which I actually think it was tweeted something like, I think it's. . . the US is 77 percent greater in terms of GDP than the Eurozone countries, which means that, for some reason, the Silicon Valley ecosystem — and it is largely attributed to Silicon Valley. When I first wrote the thesis on American Dynamism, I looked actually at 1996, because it was 25 years when I published it, but 1996, if you looked at the top US companies by market cap, all six of them were outside of technology as an ecosystem. They were energy companies, I would say almost archaic industries that had grown over a long period of time, but if you look at those six companies today, they are all tech companies. And so something has happened in the 21st century. You could say the new American Century is actually built off the back of software. It's built off of these large tech companies that were built in California, in many cases. And so the 15-year period that you're talking about, which is this sort of, it was a zero-interest-rate environment, cost of capital was very low, there was a lot of experimentation going on, it was, in many ways, the canonical example of American Dynamism broadly, that you had risk capital going after many new ideas in many different areas, but they were particularly really focused on the areas that government was not interested in regulating.And that's always been the theme of innovation in Silicon Valley is, “Let's go where they're not necessarily paying attention.” Maybe you had some one-offs in terms of, you'll always have to meet with your regulator at some point—in the case of Uber or Airbnb—but these companies were really born of the needs that founders understood. They were built off the back of a platform shift in terms of, 2007, 2008, the iPhone becomes the thing that everyone wants to build on, it becomes the mobile era. And so you really did have this focus of software, and enterprise software, and consumer, and companies were able to grow to extraordinary heights. And if you just look at what it has done for US GDP in comparison to even something like Europe, it is really extraordinary. So that is a story that I think we should be celebrating and telling.But what has happened, I think, since Covid is this new shift, which is, we've explored many of the digital frontiers that we can. And of course there's always a new digital frontier. Every time we think it's over, we get hit with a new one — in the case of AI. But the thing that I think has really changed is that entrepreneurs now are not afraid of the physical world, and they are realizing — and I hate to use the word “inevitable,” but in some ways this is an inevitability — that you are going to have to interface with government at a certain point if you are going to build in the physical world. And there are so many opportunities, there are so many different places where founders can build, that that really did take on new meeting post- this slew of black swan events, in the case of Covid, and then of course Russia invaded Ukraine, where I think it did wake up a lot of founders who said, “I want to work on these really hard problems.” And thankfully we have companies that have scaled during that time, that have trained these manufacturing capabilities, they've trained engineers how to do these things. So it is our view that that 15-year period was extraordinary for software, but the next 10 years are going to be extraordinary for these American Dynamism companies, as well.Government collaboration: challenges & opportunities (11:29)When you talk about interfacing with government, what popped into my head was a bit of video of a congressional hearing, and they were trying to decide, do we want to bring the private sector and SpaceX into the space program, and so not just have it be a government effort by NASA? And I just remember these senators just lambasting the idea. And I think they might've brought in some astronauts, too. And if I was interested in interfacing with government and I had seen that video, I'm like, “Boy, oh boy, I hope the attitude of government has changed since then, because it seems like that's a wall.” What is the attitude on the other side? You said the attitude of the entrepreneurs has changed, of funders, but what about on the other side? What is the openness to the kinds of solutions that your companies are presenting?I think it's changed because it has to, and I always point to the late former Secretary of Defense Ash Carter, who in 2015 started DIUx [Defense Innovation Unit Experimental] as an innovation unit for the DoD [Department of Defense], recognizing that there's a talent problem that US government has had; and it didn't start in the last 10 years. When I was exploring this talent problem, I actually realized that there had been a commission on the lack of talent going into the bureaucracy at the federal level.In the 1990s, Paul Volcker actually chaired the commission, it was called a “Quiet Crisis.” Basically that young people today, unlike in the '50s and the '60s where government was seen as this extraordinary job that you could have or that you could go into one of these companies and work in a company for 30 years and then draw a pension, that young people today want to go work in the private sector, and the growth and dynamism of the private sector has actually been an issue for government, and that is not a new issue. It was explored in the late '80s, early '90s, and it has gotten precipitously worse because of tech. I would say that the technological innovation risk capital going to Silicon Valley and saying, “We're going to fund young people as they come out of college because they understand this new type of engineering.” You're seeing some of the best and brightest young people decide not to go to traditional companies, which has been a huge issue for the prime contractors that supply 40 percent of the government programs for the DoD, but what has happened is you're seeing this extraordinary engineering talent go to startups. And so I think what even — this is 10 years ago now — DIU saw, if all of our best and brightest software talent is avoiding government, or much of it is avoiding government, they're avoiding traditional companies that we work with, we have to meet them where they are.And so the DoD I actually think was the first government organization to really recognize this crisis and to decide, we're going to need to have new interfaces. Now, whether that means new procurement, that's always going to be a debate, and that's a Washington issue that I think we've been fighting for several years now in order to change how these companies are able to work with the DoD on these big programs, but I think even just recognizing that this was an issue 10 years ago was a huge step for government.And over time now, we've seen a handful of what we would call “defense 1.0” companies, in terms of startups, many of them kind of built off the back of a company like SpaceX, now realizing that you can build for USG [US Government], you can build hardware-software hybrid that you can then sell into production contracts, and it's companies like Anduril that were started in 2017 when people said, “This is impossible to do. You're never going to be able to sell to USG,” and this year was chosen for a massive program, the CCA [Collaborative Combat Aircraft] program with the Air Force, over many prime contractors.And so I think that is the story now that Silicon Valley has seen, and I always joke that, particularly investors and founders, they really only need to see a handful of winners to know that something is a category, and so you're going to see more and more of these companies being founded, scaling, and I think that circuitous cycle and that virtuous cycle actually leads more to the DoD saying, “Okay, this is a real ecosystem now.” It's not as risky to take a chance on a startup, which is what government is always worried about, if we take a chance on anything innovative, are we going to look foolish? And so I think, in some ways, you are seeing the government respond to what's happened in the private sector, but this is not something that's a year old, two years old, or three years old, this is something that's been talked about for almost 10 years now, and of course SpaceX now is an over-20-year-old company.Is this still primarily a Defense Department-focused effort? Are there other areas of government who are looking at what's happening with DoD and they're drawing lessons? How diverse of an effort has this become?We see this across every sector that government cares about. So it's not just defense, it's aerospace, it's energy, it's logistics, it's transportation. We always joke, if there is a department in Washington that exists to regulate a sector, that is American Dynamism, and you are seeing innovation in those sectors. But it's happening at different rates. I'd say the DoD is one of the largest spenders. The largest private US company right now is SpaceX, so there's success in those categories, so you're seeing a lot of interest in it now, but then there's companies in public safety. That's an area where I think there's just been an extraordinary explosion of innovation in the last few years, largely driven by the fact that there is a labor crisis happening in public safety across America, but it is a different sale, it's not selling to federal government, selling to state and local.One of our companies, Flock Safety, which I mentioned at the beginning of our chat, they now are involved in solving 10 percent of vehicular crimes in America.What do they do?So, it's a great story about a company that was founded in Atlanta in 2017, and they built a very small modular license plate reader that only tracks cars, not people, and started building for homeowners associations with the recognition that most crimes in America are committed with a car, and so if you can put these in areas of high traffic, areas to augment the work of law enforcement, crime will go down. And they started selling to homeowners associations and immediately got pull around Atlanta and suburban Atlanta from police chiefs who said, “I need 10 of these in areas where we don't have enough people who can look at different areas.”So now this company is operating across America, they're in all 50 states, and what's extraordinary about what they've been able to do as a technology company, just putting up cameras in different sectors and following cars, is one of the hardest problems for law enforcement is when a car that has committed at theft or — one of the most extraordinary stories they've told us recently was there was a young girl kidnapped, a young child kidnapped in Atlanta, and the car went into a different county. And so when that happens, for law enforcement it's often one of the most difficult things, if a car goes into a different county, to do data sharing across these places. But if you have a network of cameras that can track the car, you find that kidnapped child, or you find that stolen vehicle much, much faster. In many ways, catching the cars at the moment where they've moved from county to county has actually solved one of the bigger data issues that law enforcement has.What's interesting about this example — and it provides a nice lead-in to my next question — is, in that situation, the solution wasn't to help the various databases communicate better, it was a completely different sort of solution. So, are what these companies doing — it seems like what they're not doing is taking existing operations and improving efficiency, but providing a new way to approach the problem that they're trying to tackle.Yes. And what's incredible about that story is it was not started as a company that was supposed to support law enforcement. It was started for homeowners associations, it was a consumerization of a civic problem. And I think that's what's really interesting is, one of the biggest issues, and this is why I think you're now seeing really interesting technology companies enter government at all levels is, you have a population that has grown up with consumer technology now. So as the boomers retire, the boomers remember what it was like to be in government, or to be in office places without Zoom, without the consumer internet, and without the things that make life much easier and tangible, as those people retire, you have young people demanding, “We have to use better technology.”And so the solutions are not, “Okay, let's iterate on the existing systems that we've used for the last 10 or 20 years,” it's, “Why can't my experience when I walk into my job in government feel exactly the same way that it does when I walk into my home and I experience the consumerization of everything around me?”So I think that is part of it, that you have this millennial generation that's now coming into leadership. In many cases, you have people who don't necessarily remember the world before the internet or didn't have formative experiences in the workplace or in government before the internet. And that is shaping and reshaping all of how government functions, and likely will for the next 20 years. The thing that, especially when we talk about the Department of Defense and the warfighter, the thing that has always been tragic is that you have more technology in your phone than you do when you go onto the battlefield. And so I think there's this understanding that young people are demanding to have the same level of technology and the same ease-of-use in all aspects of governance, in all aspects of civic goods.Playing the long-game in Washington (21:16)You seem like a very upbeat, positive person. My experience as people from Silicon Valley — or now, in your case, from Miami, a new startup hotbed — they come through Washington, they bring that optimism with them, then after a few days of dealing with people on Capitol Hill, the optimism is drained out of them, they go back shells of their former selves, because if you've dealt with a lot of people on Capitol Hill and staffers, what they're really good at saying is, “That will never pass . . . that will take 20 years . . . three of my predecessors worked on it, it didn't work . . .” How have you been able to maintain a fairly upbeat attitude, given that this is the world that your companies have to deal with?I agree with you that one of the biggest problems that we see, and which we joke about, is that the only reason why people in Silicon Valley 10 years ago were going to Washington was to apologize for the things that they did. They would get hauled in front of Congress, say they're sorry, and so I think what we've seen in these sectors, in particular, is it's a specific type of founder and person who knows that this is very mission-driven. They are called to build these companies. They care about these companies. They're passionate about the national interest. And so they know they have to go to Washington repeatedly, and I think some of the mistakes that, say, founders who had no exposure to Washington, or have no exposure to regulated industries, when they would go to Washington, they'd say, okay, maybe I go once a year, shake some hands, it's kind of fun, and then I go back and I build, and they would be surprised when they got nowhere. And of course, I think that the most sophisticated companies recognize that they have to learn to play the game that Washington cares about. And there is a totally different culture in Washington, there's a totally different set of incentives. I say it's really the difference between, Silicon Valley is a positive-sum culture: Everyone helps everyone, knowing that the pie can always get bigger, and you always want a piece of that bigger pie as it's growing, and so the more things that you're doing, the better. It's why we have this beautiful angel investing network. It's why we have all of these things that make no sense to people in Washington where it's elections, where 10,000 votes in a state could decide the election, and it's a zero-sum game, and that is what decides who is in office and who is in think tanks. And so it's a very different way of thinking about things.The thing that I think has changed the most about Silicon Valley is recognizing, we might not be good at zero-sum games and zero-sum thinking, but that is the people that we are interfacing with, and we need to understand their incentive systems when they decide to make a purchasing decision, when they decide whether they're going to vote on a bill in a certain way, when they think about, what do their constituents care about back home in a place that has nothing to do with Silicon Valley or California. So I think that level of empathy for what Washington does, which is very different than what Silicon Valley does, is important.Is it hard to stay optimistic? There are times where you're banging your head against the wall, we're on very short time horizons, Washington can go in perpetuity doing what it does without necessarily seeing much change. But having those points of connection, and constantly having the conversation, and recognizing that it is a long game and not a short game, I think has been very beneficial, and now there are success stories: Palantir, Anduril, Shield AI, these companies that have been around for 10 years now, that have really shown that it is possible to do good work and to support the needs of the DoD, and to speak the language of the DoD, as well, I think has really led to this next generation of founders understanding what they need to do to be successful as well.Building the American Dream (24:35)What kind of world are you trying to create? I'm sure it's intellectually challenging, I'm sure it's well-paying, but, fundamentally, why are you doing this? And I would think it's to create some world that is better than the one we're currently living. What is the world you're trying to create?I think there is a recognition post-Covid, in particular, for a lot of young people, a lot of engineers, that things were broken, things are broken in this country. The physical world has not kept up with the digital world, and there's been extraordinary changes, technology is moving as fast as it possibly can, and a lot of the things that people care the most about have been left out of that story: Education, which is something we haven't necessarily talked about yet, but education needs to be completely transformed in an era where technology is at our fingertips and where people who are good at learning learn faster than they ever possibly could, and people who are not good at learning don't, and so you have a disparity between those people.But there's an extraordinary amount of change that has happened in the last 25 years where the things that American citizens care most about have not changed in the way that they need to keep up with, again, the changes in the consumer internet and what we've seen in the enterprise.And so the story of, how do we make America strong? How do we continue to be the most dynamic country in the world? How do we make sure that all American citizens and the things they care about most in terms of the American Dream are part of that story? I think that is something that the founders who work in American Dynamism care deeply about. They recognize, and I always point this out, but there are so many founders now who are working at companies like Anduril, like Saronic, where they don't necessarily even remember September 11th — they weren't old enough — but they care deeply about the idea that America needs to be a strong country, and that we need to have a mode of deterrence, and we need to have a strong national defense that keeps America the most dynamic country so that people can build inside of it. The same thing with recognizing that there needs to be changes in housing, needs to be changes in education, these are things that were part of the American Dream when our parents were growing up and feel a little bit distant for a lot of other young people growing up today. So I think there is a recognition that technology has to be a part of those big sectors in order to support the American Dream that many of us grew up with and that many of us aspire to.Faster, Please! is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit fasterplease.substack.com/subscribe
What are the best strategies for your portfolio right now? NewEdge's Cameron Dawson, Invesco's Kristina Hooper and American Century's Mike Rode reveal their playbooks. Plus, several reports surfacing today about Apple's big AI push. We break down all the headlines and get instant analysis from an analyst. And, we tell you what's at stake when retailers Lululemon and Ulta report in Overtime.
How can America beat China in the race for the twenty-first century? Today's guest Dmitri Alperovitch answers that question in his new book, World on the Brink. They then move on to the election, discussing its impact on US-China relations and why Xi Jinping could make his decision on Taiwan sooner than we think… Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Today on the Social-Engineer Podcast: The Security Awareness Series, Chris is joined by Kimberly Sims. Kimberly is the Deputy CISO, Director of Cyber Operations and Cloud Security for American Century Investments. Kimberly has over 17 years' experience in the Financial Services sector. Prior to joining American Century, Kimberly ran the Information Security Program for the second-largest capital market's desk in the world, responsible for securing systems that process a trillion-dollar debt portfolio. Kimberly is an advisory member, and IT lead for the Charter for Veterans, a non-profit organization assisting recovering combat wounded veterans. She is an advocate for mentorship and coaching across the security industry and participates in several industry groups. [Aug 19, 2024] 00:00 - Intro 00:22 - Intro Links: - Social-Engineer.com - http://www.social-engineer.com/ - Managed Voice Phishing - https://www.social-engineer.com/services/vishing-service/ - Managed Email Phishing - https://www.social-engineer.com/services/se-phishing-service/ - Adversarial Simulations - https://www.social-engineer.com/services/social-engineering-penetration-test/ - Social-Engineer channel on SLACK - https://social-engineering-hq.slack.com/ssb - CLUTCH - http://www.pro-rock.com/ - innocentlivesfoundation.org - http://www.innocentlivesfoundation.org/ 03:01 - Kimberly Sims Intro 03:49 - Inspired by a Book 05:32 - Making a Giant Leap! 06:59 - Biggest Mistakes 09:14 - Lessons Learned 11:07 - Security Ambassador 13:23 - Overcoming the Fear 15:20 - Executive Order 17:06 - People, Process, Technology 18:38 - Back to Basics 20:11 - Resiliency Programs 23:14 - The Take Home 24:47 - Jump In! 25:46 - Book Recommendations - Blink - Malcolm Gladwell - Pitch Perfect - Bill McGowan - Permission to Screw Up - Kristen Hadeed 27:49 - Mentors 29:12 - Find Kimberly Sims online - LinkedIn: in/kimberly-sims-733510/ 29:26 - Wrap Up & Outro - www.social-engineer.com - www.innocentlivesfoundation.org
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