Podcasts about autonomous research

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Charlene Chu to the show. Charlene is the China and India macrofinancial senior analyst at the independent global research firm Autonomous Research. Dubbed the "rock star" of Chinese debt analysis, she joins the podcast to talk all about China and India's current economic happenings.  Charlene kicks off the show by explaining her macroeconomic background and experience studying China's economy. She discusses whether China is still worth investing in, which specific area of the Chinese market looks most promising, and what's going on right now in China's property sector. Charlene also goes in depth on President Donald Trump's tariffs that will impact China and what the administration is potentially hoping to gain in negotiations. (1:41) Next, Charlene explores India's weaknesses versus China in becoming a global manufacturing hub – this includes its bureaucracy, onerous labor laws, and lack of infrastructure. She says that India is currently where China was in the 1990s, and the country will require much more development and investment to catch up. Charlene then talks about the good and bad economic effects of China's communist government, China's looming debt crisis, and how the average Chinese consumer differs from an American one. (19:57) Finally, Charlene examines China's demographics and explains why she believes the country's population will fall 60% to 70% by the year 2100. However, despite birth rates dropping, AI and technology may be able to make up for the declining number of humans in manufacturing roles and fill those gaps for several decades. And Charlene closes the conversation by urging U.S. investors not to worry too much about the Trump tariffs just yet, as there may be a method to the madness. (41:55)

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Charlene Chu to the show. Charlene is the China and India macrofinancial senior analyst at the independent global research firm Autonomous Research. Dubbed the "rock star" of Chinese debt analysis, she joins the podcast to talk all about China and India's current economic happenings.  Charlene kicks off the show by explaining her macroeconomic background and experience studying China's economy. She discusses whether China is still worth investing in, which specific area of the Chinese market looks most promising, and what's going on right now in China's property sector. Charlene also goes in depth on President Donald Trump's tariffs that will impact China and what the administration is potentially hoping to gain in negotiations. (1:41) Next, Charlene explores India's weaknesses versus China in becoming a global manufacturing hub – this includes its bureaucracy, onerous labor laws, and lack of infrastructure. She says that India is currently where China was in the 1990s, and the country will require much more development and investment to catch up. Charlene then talks about the good and bad economic effects of China's communist government, China's looming debt crisis, and how the average Chinese consumer differs from an American one. (19:57) Finally, Charlene examines China's demographics and explains why she believes the country's population will fall 60% to 70% by the year 2100. However, despite birth rates dropping, AI and technology may be able to make up for the declining number of humans in manufacturing roles and fill those gaps for several decades. And Charlene closes the conversation by urging U.S. investors not to worry too much about the Trump tariffs just yet, as there may be a method to the madness. (41:55)

The Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) recently released the open-source ARES_OS, a key software component of their Autonomous Research System. ARES_OS allows relatively simple robots to perform experiments, and develop new experiments based on the results. The AFRL's Benji Maruyama talks with IEEE Spectrum associate editor Dina Genkina about how he hopes the system becomes not just an invaluable helper for grad students, but opens up research to many more people outside traditional labs and enables progress in tackling hard problems like climate change. 

In the final episode of season two of the Recession-Proof podcast, Alex and Kimia discuss the most impactful insights from previous episodes with Sam Mallikarjunan of OneScreen.ai, Geoffrey Woo of Anti Fund Investment Fund, Dan Chen of Deltec, Anup Singh of Illumio, Keith Masuda of Modern Treasury, Liz Christo of Stage 2 Capital, Kelly Battles of DataStax, and Ken Suchoski of Autonomous Research.Each of them share advice on how to overcome the challenges of the current state of the market, prioritize investments, and grow your business through the end of 2022 and the start of 2023.Here are a few highlights, check out the full episode for the rest… Why Sam Mallikarjunan, Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer of OneScreen.ai emphasizes the importance of connecting the finance and marketing functions“I will say there is an adversarial relationship between finance and basically every other part of the company. But to treat the finance team and the finance leadership as if it's an adversarial relationship or to not actually proactively reach out to them, to me, that therefore has always been like, you're yelling at the person who's sitting in the top of the ship's sails being like, Hey, there's an iceberg up ahead, or, Hey, there's land over there that's just like filled with random gold. Why are we ignoring it? And we're not creating clear lines of communication in alignment with a partner whose objectives are fundamentally aligned with our own.”Geoffrey Woo, Co-founder and Partner of Anti Fund Investment Fund explains why attention is more valuable than capital“We all have 24 hours in a day times 8 billion people. That is the max limit of attention that exists in this world. You can print money, do weird financial engineering with money, but literally, the max attention cap of humanity is some 8 billion times 24 hours a day. Anything that can wield attention, I think, is going to be increasingly powerful over time.”How Kelly Battles, a Board Member and Audit Committee Chair for DataStax, Arista Networks, and Genesys thinks you can become a more well-rounded finance professional by…“Get on a board if you can, even as a full-time executive, because it makes you a better executive. When you're a full-time exec, especially in an intense startup or private company scaling company, you can get tunnel vision. And I think having another company and seeing from a bird's eye view what they're going through gives you perspective, context, and learnings, and you start building your pattern recognition.”Learn more about our season two guests: Sam Mallikarjunan on LinkedIn Geoffrey Woo on LinkedIn Dan Chen on LinkedIn Anup Singh on LinkedIn Keith Masuda on LinkedIn Liz Christo on LinkedIn Kelly Battles on LinkedIn Ken Suchoski on LinkedIn Check out the full transcript here.For more episodes from Recession-Proof, check us out on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and our RSS or your favorite podcast player. Instructions on how to follow, rate, and review Recession-Proof are here.

Ken Suchoski joins Alex Song on Recession-Proof this week to discuss the impact of inflation, which types of businesses will thrive in this environment and what your management team should be doing now.Ken is the Equity Research Analyst at Autonomous Research, where he collaborates with companies like Visa, Mastercard, PayPal, Global Payments, Bill.com, FleetCor, WEX, nCino, and Western Union. Before Autonomous Research, Ken served as a Research Analyst for First Eagle Investments and Janney Montgomery Scott.Ken and Alex discuss: The role of an equity research analyst Short-term and long-term macro trends What makes an effective management team Which businesses are better positioned to survive and thrive in an inflationary environment Key takeaways Regarding the macro environment, it's essential to separate what we're seeing in terms of current indicators versus what we might see in the future. In the near term, there are excess savings, wage growth remains robust, debt servicing for consumers remains in check, and credit volume growth continues to outpace debit volume growth. Overall, we are experiencing normalization of the shifts we saw during COVID-19. On the other hand, banks disagree over their economic outlooks, investors are concerned about the so-called “white-collar recession”, and that we may see a macro slow down over the long term. “In this time of uncertainty, businesses need to put more of their spending under scrutiny. If you're facing inflationary pressures and your costs are going up, you need to be able to manage that.” Overall, inflation is bad for every company in the long run. But in the near term, it might bring benefits and opportunities for specific industries and businesses. For example, if you're in the business of processing payments, inflation might help you because just the ticket sizes get larger. These companies usually generate revenue as a percentage of the transaction value. So as the average transaction size increases due to inflation, if you're charging two percent per transaction, your revenues will increase as that transaction size increases. As a rule, companies with greater pricing power are better positioned to survive and thrive in an inflationary environment.“Our view on inflation is that it's not good for any business. But payment companies are generally better positioned to face inflationary periods, at least when compared to companies that are outside of the financial services sector.” When looking at a business from the investor's perspective, you want a management team that will do the right thing in allocating the generated cash flow to high-return projects or maybe acquisitions if that makes sense. You also want a management team that you can trust and that foster an attractive culture. Regarding what a management team should be doing right now: cash preservation and expense management.“So you have a business that is producing cash flow. The management team is responsible for being stewards of allocating that cash flow and the earnings that the business generates.” Learn more about Ken:Ken on LinkedIn Episode resources: Ramp's 2022 Q2 Benchmarks Spending Report The Outsiders by William Thorndike Check out the full transcript here.For more episodes from Recession-Proof, check us out on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and our RSS or your favorite podcast player.Instructions on how to follow, rate, and review Recession-Proof are here.

Dr. Alexis Lewis of the National Science Foundation, Dr. Benji Maruyama of the Air Force Research Laboratory, and Dr. Eric Stach of the University of Pennsylvania join the podcast to discuss autonomous research and how open-source software can enable scientists to expedite research.

Crypto for Dummies! We are taking a very deep dive into the world of technology this week as we discuss NFTs, virtual currencies, #DeFi and loads of other exciting features of 'crypto life' with Lex Sokolin, the Head Economist at ConsenSys, the biggest blockchain company in the world. Your head will be spinning after this episode. We surely learned a lot and hope you will as well.  Guest Introduction:  For this episode of The TeachPitch Podcast we are going to take you to an almost alternate universe. No - we are not going to space travel like we did a few episodes ago when talking to a Space Lawyer - but we are going to travel deep, deep into our laptops, computers and smartphones. The world ‘blockchain' has become a bit of a buzzword. When I hear it, I associate it with a new type of online safety and this mystic word  ‘decentralised' that everyone keeps bringing up. When other people hear it they might think crypto currency, bitcoin. Every day you hear about new initiatives where blockchain has become part of the mix. But was it really?  With us today is Lex Sokolin who is the Head Economist of Consensys - the biggest blockchain in the world. Lex' company uses Ethereum a system based on blockchain to build new enterprise infrastructure solutions for companies all over the world. And Ethereum is also tied to a currency that is growing up very quickly into the crypto world. Something that I suspect Lex knows a lot about.  At Consensys Lex is working on the next generation of financial services. He earned a JD and an MBA from Columbia University and a B.A. in Economics and Law from Amherst College.   Previously, Lex was the Global Director of Fintech Strategy at Autonomous Research, COO at AdvisorEngine and CEO of NestEgg Wealth, Lex also held roles in investment management and banking at Barclays, Lehman Brothers and Deutsche Bank. Lex is a contributor of thought leadership to the Wall Street Journal, the Economist, Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, American Banker, ThinkAdvisor, and Investment News.  You can find out more about ConsenSys here: https://consensys.net

On today’s episode, Ryan Zauk sits down with Lex Sokolin, CMO, Chief Economist, and Global Fintech Co-Head at ConsenSys, the world’s leading Ethereum software company. Lex also runs the Fintech Blueprint, an amazing fintech subscription newsletter. Before ConsenSys, Lex worked in strategy at Lehman Brothers before getting a JD MBA from Columbia. At Columbia he founded NestEgg, a private label robo, later selling it to AdvisorEngine, then worked in research at Autonomous Research. Lex is a fintech and technology futurist in every sense of the word, always writing at the intersection of finance, tech, law, philosophy, economics, and sociology. We are a huge fan of his work here at Wharton Fintech! Fintech Blueprint: https://lex.substack.com/ In today’s episode, Ryan & Lex discuss: - The deep meanings behind his career decision making, breaking from gold-star chasing to startups and now frontier technology - How Duchamp's "Fountain" can help people understand NFTs - How a conversation with a Deloitte exec turned him into a budding futurist - What ConsenSys is and how it works with the crypto ecosystem - His predictions for Defi and the road to mass adoption - His boredom with fintech super apps, robo advisors, and neobanks - Why Google Pay is going to kill many fintechs For more Fintech insights, follow us below: Medium: medium.com/wharton-fintech WFT Twitter: twitter.com/whartonfintech Ryan's Twitter: twitter.com/RyanZauk LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/wharton-fintech-club/

Find the podcast TOX News on most platforms but shouts out to Anchor (the best podcast platform) Twitter: @TOXNpod Youtube: TOX News Twitch: toxstreaming Check out my writings at: poordomrebellion.net

Lex Sokolin iLex Sokolin is a futurist and an entrepreneur focused on the next generation of financial services. He is the global fintech co-head at ConsenSys, a blockchain technology company building the infrastructure, applications, and practices that enable a decentralized world. Lex focuses on emerging digital assets, public and private enterprise blockchain solutions, and decentralized autonomous organizations. Previously, Lex was the global director of fintech strategy at Autonomous Research (acquired by AllianceBernstein), an equity research firm serving institutional investors, where he covered artificial intelligence, blockchain, neobanks, digital lenders, roboadvisors, payments, insurtech, and mixed reality. Before Autonomous, Lex was COO at AdvisorEngine, a digital wealth management technology platform, and CEO of NestEgg Wealth, a roboadvisor that partnered with financial advisors. Prior to NestEgg, Lex held roles in investment management and banking at Barclays, Lehman Brothers and Deutsche Bank. Lex is a contributor of thought leadership to The Wall Street Journal, The Economist, Bloomberg, the Financial Times, Reuters, American Banker, ThinkAdvisor, and InvestmentNews, among others. He is a regular speaker at industry conferences such as Money2020, LendIt, Schwab Impact, In|Vest, T3 Enterprise Edition, and Consensus. He earned a JD/MBA from Columbia University and a BA in economics and law from Amherst College.   “The good news is that I didn’t have any money, or whatever money I did have I put into some discounted Lehman stock thinking these guys knew what they’re talking about. And if there’s so much confidence, and they have such fancy suits, and they get paid so much, this thing’s got to … go up. And of course ... it didn’t go up, not at all, not in any way whatsoever, it just went down.” Lex Sokolin, on his time at Lehman Brothers in 2007     Support our sponsor   Today’s episode is sponsored by the Women Building Wealth membership group, the complete proven step-by-step course to guide women from novice to competent investor. To learn more, visit: WomenBuildingWealth.net.     Worst investment ever Fresh graduate joins Lehman Brothers analyst program The year was 2006. Lex had just graduated from his undergraduate degree in economics. It was still cool to work in finance. He joined the Lehman Brothers’ analyst program alongside 40-50 people when the brand was very strong. His intake were young kids out of school, and associates. They were starting at the investment management division. One of the orientation activities was a stock-picking contest in which new staff had three months to generate the highest returns in a no-risk setting. Wins stock-picking contest just as big banks start to fail He won, which did amazing and damaging things for his ego. He was on top of the world as he had bested Stanford and Harvard people, and was on the road to success. It was now 2007. Bear Stearns appeared to be failing and collapsed shortly afterward. Rumors were circulating that the big banks had a lot of bad debt on their balance sheets and that they couldn’t meet their obligations. A liquidity crisis was looming and Lehman was in the crosshairs. Staff 401K packages are matched in Lehman stock At the time, Lex was in this investment management business and the Lehman price was around US$120 per share. Then it started to fall. It halved its value to 60. Then it plunged to 20 and Lex remembers that day. There was a strong corporate culture at Lehman Brothers. The corporate color was green so people would say everybody leaves green because everyone’s on the same team. So managing directors got paid in Lehman stock as a percentage of their accomplishments. Analysts such as Lex were matched in their 401K plans in stock. If you saved $10,000 you would get $10,000 in Lehman stock and nothing else. Also, staff could buy more stock at a 20% discount. Gordon-Gekko type invokes team spirit, tells staff to invest in Lehman stock So Lehman stock was $20, and it had been falling for months. Lex watched as the New York branch manager, an 80s throwback with Gordon Gekko suspenders and haircut, was saying that the stock price was ridiculous and that it had never been so cheap, so he was directing staff to buy more Lehman stock. Mr. Greed is Good was among people managing $80 billion in that business and another $200 billion in an adjacent business. Lex was 22 so seeing such experienced people made him think it was a good idea. The good news was that he didn’t have much money, because the stock never recovered and due to politics and personal animosity, and the devious dealings of Goldman Sachs, the whole company was the only one not saved by the bailout or takeover deals. Lehmans went to zero. Lehmans alone was left out in the cold Merrill Lynch also collapsed, but it was taken over by the Bank of America. So it didn’t go to zero. Bear Stearns had collapsed earlier but it was bought by JP Morgan. Lehman was the example for the whole world of learning how to be punished, and seeing the destruction of wrong balance sheet construction. Lehman was not a worse business than Merrill, it was a better business than Merrill, and it was not a worse business than Bear Stearns. What however happened was that when it was time to talk about a bailout, all the people in the room, from the treasury secretary to all the other banks, every single person had been a Goldman Sachs (GS) employee. 401K matching also went to zero also So Lex’s retirement package also matched Lehman’s and went to zero. So as a young analyst who was really good at virtual stock games none of the outcome was part of his decision process and was not something he knew. So understanding that this was not an exception, that the world is defined by these edge cases, that the whole thing is just these edge cases, was an extremely valuable takeaway. While he lost everything he had at the time, in the long horizon, “things turned out quite all right”.   “I was a super interesting moment, I am so incredibly grateful for having that early in my career, you know, two years into my career, because I saw everything from the behavioural biases that people have about the places where they work, the problems of over indexing and to one particular security, and then more than anything, you know, like idiosyncratic risk that you really can’t predict.” Lex Sokolin     Some lessons Overconcentration in any position exposes you to great idiosyncratic risk This is the kind of risk that you cannot create a model for, nor can you have any good sense for it, because it is unknowable. Diversification in portfolio construction is the answer Build a portfolio without overexposing yourself to any particular holding – diversify. If you’re doing a barbell strategy, make sure the other side of the barbell is really conservative, so if you one of your positions fails, it doesn’t harm your portfolio in a big way. People are not reliable sources of information Most of the time the information you’re receiving from other people is based on emotion. They might dress it up in technical language, but it’s not useful information. It’s just how they feel.   “So understanding that this (Lehman’s collapse) was not an exception, that the world is defined by these edge cases, that the whole thing is just these edge cases … was a majorly valuable takeaway.” Lex Sokolin     Andrew’s takeaways Benefits of diversification Risk disappears or reduces very quickly, in the beginning as you start to blend stocks together. “Diversification is the seat belt and blending in some sort of other instruments, such as bonds for example, is the airbag.” Common mistakes Collated from the My Worst Investment Ever series, the six main categories of mistakes made by interviewees, starting from the most common, are: Failed to do their own research Failed to properly assess and manage risk Were driven by emotion or flawed thinking Misplaced trust Failed to monitor their investment Invested in a start-up company Misplaced trust Particularly for young people, you see senior financial experts managing billions of dollars, and you think: “This guy’s got to know.” Andrew always says, everyone’s ultimately making it up, this man or that woman just has a lot more experience making it up than others, and maybe has some great experience in risk management or another area. It’s hard to rely on humans to give you great information It’s also hard to rely on machines, or charts or data, to give you correct information     Actionable advice Figure out what know that you know and what you know that you don’t know Everything flows from that: the selection of your investment philosophy, the selection of your risk tolerance and your ability to put money to work. Figure out your goals for the financial planning you’re doing. Ask yourself the following: Why are you investing? What are you trying to get out of it? How are you going to behave when different scenarios play out in your investment’s performance? What kind of investor are you? Do you need help? Do you want to delegate that to somebody who will make you feel more secure and give you a smarter overlay? Or do you want to do it yourself?     No. 1 goal for next the 12 months Lex at ConsenSys, one of the largest blockchain technology companies in the world, is focused on the tokenization of securities and the “connective tissue” between the traditional financial world and the world of digital assets, crypto assets, and how the two connect through platforms and software. So he’s trying to build some cool tools for people to get access to financial instruments that historically they either didn’t have enough money to do or was just too difficult to get involved with. It’s a very interesting opportunity because there has been a lot of pushback recently against cryptocurrencies at every level.     Parting words If listeners would like to keep up with some fintech news and developments, Lex invites you to check out his Twitter or follow him on LinkedIn for his newsletter.     You can also check out Andrew’s books   How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market   My Worst Investment Ever   9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid Them   Transform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 Points  Connect with Lex Sokolin LinkedIn Twitter Website Email Connect with Andrew Stotz Astotz.com LinkedIn Facebook Instagram Twitter YouTube My Worst Investment Ever Podcast Further reading mentioned Harry Markowitz (1971) Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments   s a futurist and an entrepreneur focused on the next generation of financial services. He is the global fintech co-head at ConsenSys, a blockchain technology company building the infrastructure, applications, and practices that enable a decentralized world. Lex focuses on emerging digital assets, public and private enterprise blockchain solutions, and decentralized autonomous organizations. Previously, Lex was the global director of fintech strategy at Autonomous Research (acquired by AllianceBernstein), an equity research firm serving institutional investors, where he covered artificial intelligence, blockchain, neobanks, digital lenders, roboadvisors, payments, insurtech, and mixed reality. Before Autonomous, Lex was COO at AdvisorEngine, a digital wealth management technology platform, and CEO of NestEgg Wealth, a roboadvisor that partnered with financial advisors. Prior to NestEgg, Lex held roles in investment management and banking at Barclays, Lehman Brothers and Deutsche Bank. Lex is a contributor of thought leadership to The Wall Street Journal, The Economist, Bloomberg, the Financial Times, Reuters, American Banker, ThinkAdvisor, and InvestmentNews, among others. He is a regular speaker at industry conferences such as Money2020, LendIt, Schwab Impact, In|Vest, T3 Enterprise Edition, and Consensus. He earned a JD/MBA from Columbia University and a BA in economics and law from Amherst College.   “The good news is that I didn’t have any money, or whatever money I did have I put into some discounted Lehman stock thinking these guys knew what they’re talking about. And if there’s so much confidence, and they have such fancy suits, and they get paid so much, this thing’s got to … go up. And of course ... it didn’t go up, not at all, not in any way whatsoever, it just went down.” Lex Sokolin, on his time at Lehman Brothers in 2007     Support our sponsor   Today’s episode is sponsored by the Women Building Wealth membership group, the complete proven step-by-step course to guide women from novice to competent investor. To learn more, visit: WomenBuildingWealth.net.     Worst investment ever Fresh graduate joins Lehman Brothers analyst program The year was 2006. Lex had just graduated from his undergraduate degree in economics. It was still cool to work in finance. He joined the Lehman Brothers’ analyst program alongside 40-50 people when the brand was very strong. His intake were young kids out of school, and associates. They were starting at the investment management division. One of the orientation activities was a stock-picking contest in which new staff had three months to generate the highest returns in a no-risk setting. Wins stock-picking contest just as big banks start to fail He won, which did amazing and damaging things for his ego. He was on top of the world as he had bested Stanford and Harvard people, and was on the road to success. It was now 2007. Bear Stearns appeared to be failing and collapsed shortly afterward. Rumors were circulating that the big banks had a lot of bad debt on their balance sheets and that they couldn’t meet their obligations. A liquidity crisis was looming and Lehman was in the crosshairs. Staff 401K packages are matched in Lehman stock At the time, Lex was in this investment management business and the Lehman price was around US$120 per share. Then it started to fall. It halved its value to 60. Then it plunged to 20 and Lex remembers that day. There was a strong corporate culture at Lehman Brothers. The corporate color was green so people would say everybody leaves green because everyone’s on the same team. So managing directors got paid in Lehman stock as a percentage of their accomplishments. Analysts such as Lex were matched in their 401K plans in stock. If you saved $10,000 you would get $10,000 in Lehman stock and nothing else. Also, staff could buy more stock at a 20% discount. Gordon-Gekko type invokes team spirit, tells staff to invest in Lehman stock So Lehman stock was $20, and it had been falling for months. Lex watched as the New York branch manager, an 80s throwback with Gordon Gekko suspenders and haircut, was saying that the stock price was ridiculous and that it had never been so cheap, so he was directing staff to buy more Lehman stock. Mr. Greed is Good was among people managing $80 billion in that business and another $200 billion in an adjacent business. Lex was 22 so seeing such experienced people made him think it was a good idea. The good news was that he didn’t have much money, because the stock never recovered and due to politics and personal animosity, and the devious dealings of Goldman Sachs, the whole company was the only one not saved by the bailout or takeover deals. Lehmans went to zero. Lehmans alone was left out in the cold Merrill Lynch also collapsed, but it was taken over by the Bank of America. So it didn’t go to zero. Bear Stearns had collapsed earlier but it was bought by JP Morgan. Lehman was the example for the whole world of learning how to be punished, and seeing the destruction of wrong balance sheet construction. Lehman was not a worse business than Merrill, it was a better business than Merrill, and it was not a worse business than Bear Stearns. What however happened was that when it was time to talk about a bailout, all the people in the room, from the treasury secretary to all the other banks, every single person had been a Goldman Sachs (GS) employee. 401K matching also went to zero also So Lex’s retirement package also matched Lehman’s and went to zero. So as a young analyst who was really good at virtual stock games none of the outcome was part of his decision process and was not something he knew. So understanding that this was not an exception, that the world is defined by these edge cases, that the whole thing is just these edge cases, was an extremely valuable takeaway. While he lost everything he had at the time, in the long horizon, “things turned out quite all right”.   “I was a super interesting moment, I am so incredibly grateful for having that early in my career, you know, two years into my career, because I saw everything from the behavioural biases that people have about the places where they work, the problems of over indexing and to one particular security, and then more than anything, you know, like idiosyncratic risk that you really can’t predict.” Lex Sokolin     Some lessons Overconcentration in any position exposes you to great idiosyncratic risk This is the kind of risk that you cannot create a model for, nor can you have any good sense for it, because it is unknowable. Diversification in portfolio construction is the answer Build a portfolio without overexposing yourself to any particular holding – diversify. If you’re doing a barbell strategy, make sure the other side of the barbell is really conservative, so if you one of your positions fails, it doesn’t harm your portfolio in a big way. People are not reliable sources of information Most of the time the information you’re receiving from other people is based on emotion. They might dress it up in technical language, but it’s not useful information. It’s just how they feel.   “So understanding that this (Lehman’s collapse) was not an exception, that the world is defined by these edge cases, that the whole thing is just these edge cases … was a majorly valuable takeaway.” Lex Sokolin     Andrew’s takeaways Benefits of diversification Risk disappears or reduces very quickly, in the beginning as you start to blend stocks together. “Diversification is the seat belt and blending in some sort of other instruments, such as bonds for example, is the airbag.” Common mistakes Collated from the My Worst Investment Ever series, the six main categories of mistakes made by interviewees, starting from the most common, are: Failed to do their own research Failed to properly assess and manage risk Were driven by emotion or flawed thinking Misplaced trust Failed to monitor their investment Invested in a start-up company Misplaced trust Particularly for young people, you see senior financial experts managing billions of dollars, and you think: “This guy’s got to know.” Andrew always says, everyone’s ultimately making it up, this man or that woman just has a lot more experience making it up than others, and maybe has some great experience in risk management or another area. It’s hard to rely on humans to give you great information It’s also hard to rely on machines, or charts or data, to give you correct information     Actionable advice Figure out what know that you know and what you know that you don’t know Everything flows from that: the selection of your investment philosophy, the selection of your risk tolerance and your ability to put money to work. Figure out your goals for the financial planning you’re doing. Ask yourself the following: Why are you investing? What are you trying to get out of it? How are you going to behave when different scenarios play out in your investment’s performance? What kind of investor are you? Do you need help? Do you want to delegate that to somebody who will make you feel more secure and give you a smarter overlay? Or do you want to do it yourself?     No. 1 goal for next the 12 months Lex at ConsenSys, one of the largest blockchain technology companies in the world, is focused on the tokenization of securities and the “connective tissue” between the traditional financial world and the world of digital assets, crypto assets, and how the two connect through platforms and software. So he’s trying to build some cool tools for people to get access to financial instruments that historically they either didn’t have enough money to do or was just too difficult to get involved with. It’s a very interesting opportunity because there has been a lot of pushback recently against cryptocurrencies at every level.     Parting words If listeners would like to keep up with some fintech news and developments, Lex invites you to check out his Twitter or follow him on LinkedIn for his newsletter.     You can also check out Andrew’s books   How to Start Building Your Wealth Investing in the Stock Market   My Worst Investment Ever   9 Valuation Mistakes and How to Avoid Them   Transform Your Business with Dr. Deming’s 14 Points  Connect with Lex Sokolin LinkedIn Twitter Website Email Connect with Andrew Stotz Astotz.com LinkedIn Facebook Instagram Twitter YouTube My Worst Investment Ever Podcast Further reading mentioned Harry Markowitz (1971) Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments    

In this next episode of our series Rethinking Asia, we pick up where we left off last episode looking at the role of debt in China’s economy. We spoke with Charlene Chu, a senior partner for China macro-financial research at Autonomous Research, an independent research firm. Well known for her analysis of China’s shadow banking industry, Charlene previously was a senior director covering Chinese financial institutions at Fitch Ratings. Charlene gave her assessment of the recent rise in Chinese debt and why she thinks a painless deleveraging is unlikely. While China has implemented some reforms in recent years, it has mostly avoided deleveraging. Previously, China relied on a high deposit base to support credit expansion, but new credit consistently outstrips deposit growth making the levels of credit growth unsustainable. Some of Charlene’s main takeaways include:  China’s debt-to-GDP has increased by nearly 150 percentage points since the Global Financial Crisis, accompanied by a $30 trillion increase in the banking sector. While other countries have experienced large increases in debt-to-GDP before, the size and scale of China’s economy makes the growth alarming. The vast majority of China’s debt is in the corporate and property sectors. China has also experienced a run up in consumer debt over the last few years, but, currently there is no concern in households’ ability to service the debt. One of the most troubling aspects of China’s debt problem is the surge in the more opaque and less regulated shadow banking sector. However, the merging of two regulatory bodies should reduce some of the regulatory arbitrage that has allowed off balance sheet lending to grow. While a financial crisis is not preordained, Charlene dismissed the prospects of a “beautiful deleveraging.” Any attempts to deal with China’s debt burden will require hard decisions, including shuttering less productive companies by forcing them to realize losses, reining in shadow banking, capping credit growth, adjusting lending rates to account for risk, and accepting lower levels of GDP growth. The views expressed are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or of the Federal Reserve System.

Lex Sokolin is a futurist and entrepreneur focused on the next generation of financial services. He directs Fintech Strategy at Autonomous Research, a leading research firm for the financial sector, helping clients understand and leverage innovation.   Prior to joining Autonomous Research, Lex founded and ran NestEgg Wealth, a roboadvisor that pioneered online wealth management and was acquired by AdvisorEngine, a digital wealth management platform backed by WisdomTree.   Lex is a contributor of thought leadership to the WSJ, CNBC, Reuters, Investopedia, American Banker, ThinkAdvisor, and Investment News, among others.   As always, connect with us on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn or on our website at bankingthefuture.com.   If you like today's show, please subscribe on iTunes, or your podcast platform of choice, and leave us a review.   Thank you very much for joining us today, please welcome Lex Sokolin.

Which slices of the financial stack will new technologies irreversibly transform, and which will be the enablers – artificial intelligence, NLP, virtual assistants or blockchain – most significant in this transformation? On that topic Lex Sokolin, Partner at Autonomous Research, a leading research firm for the financial sector, joins Seedcamp partner Carlos Espinal. Lex is a futurist and entrepreneur focused on the next generation of financial services. He was founder and CEO of NestEgg Wealth, a roboadvisor acquired by AdvisorEngine. Prior to NestEgg, Lex held a variety of roles in investment management and banking at Barclays, Lehman Brothers and Deutsche Bank. Alluding to his own entrepreneurial experience, Lex suggests 'most people who build fintech companies think they're going to get the attention economy but instead what they get is a financial services business'. He explains that unless start-ups have the ability to chase customer acquisition with millions of dollars, the smart bet historically has been to sell directly to banks. Most consumer facing roboadvisors and fintech companies today, he says, are just ‘a new distribution mechanism, a new UI, sitting on top of existing wealth management solutions'. But, he argues, AI’s most visible effect will occur at this layer, through voice or chatbot enabled interaction with financial services. Lex also addresses the recent proliferation of Initial Coin Offerings, a financing mechanism for cryptocurrencies and decentralised applications. 'The things that are built [in the crypto economy] look wildly different and look like they really can't be replicated on the traditional stack, on an 80s core processing system’, he says. It’s a world, he argues, that closely resembles science fiction, promising the ‘full collapse of all asset classes into software' and autonomous machines transacting with each other entirely through digital assets and tokens. Show notes: Carlos Medium: sdca.mp/2entVR3 Seedcamp: www.seedcamp.com Autonomous NEXT: https://next.autonomous.com Related bio links: Carlos: linkedin.com/in/carloseduardoespinal / twitter.com/cee Lex: linkedin.com/in/alexeysokolin / twitter.com/lexsokolin

Panelists include: Robert Cortright, DriveWealth; James Waldinger, Artivest; Javier Benson, Realty Shares; Bo Brustkern, NSR Invest; Rashmi Singh, Ernst & Young; Moderator: Lex Sokolin, Autonomous Research. Panel explores what makes a next generation investment product, getting perspectives from a wide variety of firms who provide products and services; panelists talk about where we are at when it comes to the asset class and the opportunities that still lie ahead; Artivest shares that they are focused on the delivery mechanism as opposed to changing the ways they structure securities; RealtyShares’ Javier Benson noted that the underlying asset being real estate is the same but they’ve been able to make slight modifications to the structure, bringing tech and product together; others share the tech, automation and workflows they use in their business today.

Is it a Chain that Rules or a Chain-Chain-Chain of Fools?  We speak of Blockchain.  In Episode 95, Lex Sokolin, Global Director of Fintech Strategy for Autonomous Research, and Chris Cahill of Financial Poise Radio discuss what blockchain is, what problems it may address (re settlement of transactions, smart contracts, and even land records reform) and the threat to it of hackery.   You can learn more about Alexey Sokolin and Vanare here. Or you can find them here: Twitter: @LexSokolin & @vanareplatform LinkedIn Facebook     About Alexey Sokolin   leading research firm for the financial sector.  His mission is to help the industry serve clients better by understanding innovations like wearable technology, machine learning, bitcoin, ethereum and the blockchain, and crowd-sourced asset management. Lex has been referred to by WealthManagement.com as the "financial futurist", and was selected for the InvestmentNews  "40 under 40" and ThinkAdvisor's "IA25" lists of influencers in the investent industry.   Previously, Lex was the Chief Operating Officer of digital wealth management platform Vanare, and CEO and Founder of pioneering roboadvisor NestEgg Wealth (acquired by Vanare). Additionally, Lex was an investment banker at Deutsche Bank, and a member of the strategy team at Barclays Wealth (formerly Lehman Brothers Investment Management). He is active in the early-stage community, and advises startups on growth and market strategy.   Lex received a B.A. in Economics and Law from Amherst College, an M.B.A from Columbia Business School and a J.D. from Columbia Law School, where he was a Harlan Fiske Stone Scholar. He also holds a Certificate in International Relations from the Five College Consortium, and a Certificate in Digital Production and New Media Studies from Middlebury College.

I'm joined this week by Lex Sokolin. He's a self-described futurist and entrepreneur focused on the next generation of financial services. He currently directs Fintech Strategy at Autonomous Research, a research firm for the financial sector. Previously, he led product design and corporate development as COO at Vanare, a wealth management platform built on roboadvisor DNA. He was founder and CEO of NestEgg, a roboadvisor that pioneered online wealth management in partnership with financial advisors, We talk about the changes happening in the financial services space and the types of opportunities for incumbent and upstart financial firms willing to do the hard work. Lex's entrepreneurial story takes us through his four wave framework for the evolution of roboadvisors. Pay attention to what he says about the next stage for the industry and what it says about the ETF industry, as well.