Podcasts about equity research analyst

This Week in Intelligent Investing

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 15, 2024 9:36

Typically Malaysian Budgets are full of goodies of the construction sector with a list of infrastructure projects. Will Budget 2025 be a repeat of this and which contractors stand to benefit? Adam Mohamed Rahim, Equity Research Analyst, RHB Research tells us.Image Credit: Shutterstock.com

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Daniel Prather Unveils His Favorite Bargains in the UK Stock Market

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 7, 2024 75:39

In this episode, co-hosts Elliot Turner and John Mihaljevic welcome special guest Daniel Prather, Director of Research at Crossroads Capital, to discuss investment opportunities in the UK stock market. Daniel shares the investment theses behind three of his favorite ideas. For additional insights, visit https://www.crossroadscap.io/insights Enjoy the conversation! The primary purpose of this podcast is to educate and inform. The views, information, or opinions expressed by hosts or guests are their own. Neither this show, nor any of its content should be construed as investment advice or as a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security. Security specific information shared on this podcast should not be relied upon as a basis for your own investment decisions -- be sure to do your own research. The podcast hosts and participants may have a position in the securities mentioned, personally, through sub accounts and/or through separate funds and may change their holdings at any time. About the Guest: Daniel Prather, CFA serves as Director of Research at Crossroads Capital. Prior to joining Crossroads, Daniel was a Senior Analyst at Brasada Capital Management, where he was a Top 5 Finalist at the Sohn Conference's Idea Contest in 2021 and a Value Investors Club Idea Contest Winner. He also regularly presents at MOI Global's Wide Moat Investing Conference. Earlier in his career, Daniel was an M&A and Strategy Associate for an offshore drilling company, responsible for deal execution on over $10 billion in M&A transactions, and a publishing Equity Research Analyst at a start-up research firm covering the E&P sector. Daniel earned a Bachelor of Science in Aerospace Engineering from The University of Kansas, where he won an international award for jet engine design, and a Master of Science in Finance from Washington University in St. Louis. Daniel is also a CFA charterholder and an Eagle Scout, and is a co-author on a geological research paper published by the Society of Sedimentary Geology. About the Co-Hosts: Elliot Turner is a co-founder and Managing Partner, CIO at RGA Investment Advisors, LLC. RGA Investment Advisors runs a long-term, low turnover, growth at a reasonable price investment strategy seeking out global opportunities. Elliot focuses on discovering and analyzing long-term, high quality investment opportunities and strategic portfolio management. Prior to joining RGA, Elliot managed portfolios at at AustinWeston Asset Management LLC, Chimera Securities and T3 Capital. Elliot holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation as well as a Juris Doctor from Brooklyn Law School.. He also holds a Bachelor of Arts degree from Emory University where he double majored in Political Science and Philosophy. John Mihaljevic leads MOI Global and serves as managing editor of The Manual of Ideas. He managed a private partnership, Mihaljevic Partners LP, from 2005-2016. John is a winner of the Value Investors Club's prize for best investment idea. He is a trained capital allocator, having studied under Yale University Chief Investment Officer David Swensen and served as Research Assistant to Nobel Laureate James Tobin. John holds a BA in Economics, summa cum laude, from Yale and is a CFA charterholder.

Will Glove Stocks Still Feel The Love?

chinese malaysia stocks glove big four feel the love image credit equity research analyst

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 30, 2024 8:59

Malaysia's Big Four glove stocks surged as much as 30% in a single trading day on September 17th, after the US announced increased tariffs on Chinese gloves. Oong Chun Sung, Equity Research Analyst at RHB Research shares his insights into the long-term prospects of this sector and the headwinds to look out for.Image Credit: shutterstock.com

Federated Hermes' Blueprint for Biodiversity Investing and Quantifying Positive Impact Outcomes | Ingrid Kukuljan, Head of Impact & Sustainable Investing

SRI360 | Socially Responsible Investing, ESG, Impact Investing, Sustainable Investing

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 9, 2024 68:45

Biodiversity is essential for the survival of humankind, yet we threaten it every day as a society. But what's most concerning is how it's vastly overlooked by companies in the investment space, not realizing how their future returns depend on having healthy ecosystems. To help shift this narrative is my guest Ingrid Kukuljan, Head of Impact and Sustainable Investing at Federated Hermes. Ingrid's journey begins in Croatia, where her childhood experiences with nature laid the foundation for her future career. She started as an equity research analyst at Lazard, where she quickly made her mark and earned a spot in Citywire's first-ever global compilation of the 1,000 top fund managers in the world.With a career trajectory that spans several significant roles, she's now at Federated Hermes, a multi-strategy US/UK-based asset manager with $770 billion in AUM and $1.8 trillion under stewardship advisory.There, Ingrid is responsible for developing and leading their impact and sustainable investing franchise, overseeing products, strategies, and thought leadership primarily within the public markets.She explains how Federated Hermes integrates impact across all investment portfolios using proprietary data tools, ensuring sustainability is embedded in every aspect of their operations across multiple asset classes. We also talk about their biodiversity champions, transition investments, their proprietary data tools, stewardship and engagement work, and their Biodiversity Equity Fund.Join this conversation to learn about how Federated Hermes is leading the charge in biodiversity investing and beyond. —Show notes.—About the SRI 360° Podcast: The SRI 360° Podcast is focused exclusively on sustainable & responsible investing. In each episode, I interview a world-class investor and cover everything from their early personal journeys to insights into how they developed and executed their investment strategies and what challenges they face today. Each episode is a chance to go way below the surface with these impressive people and gain additional insights and useful lessons from professional investors.—Connect with SRI360°: Sign up for the free weekly email update.Visit the SRI360° PODCAST.Visit the SRI360° WEBSITE.Follow SRI360° on X.Follow SRI360° on FACEBOOK.—Key TakeawaysIntroducing Ingrid Kukuljan and her early connection to nature (00:00)Ingrid's start at Lazard & other career moves (11:28)Ingrid delivers an overview on Federated Hermes (17:36)The theory of change at Federated Hermes & investing on the secondary market (26:33)Ingrid's take on integrating sustainability and impact in investment analysis (30:04)Investment process, KPIs, and generating impact across various asset classes (36:23)A peek into Federated Hermes' proprietary data tools (47:12)The role of stewardship for achieved targeted outcomes & divestment (52:40)The Biodiversity Equity Fund at Federated Hermes & biodiversity credits (58:00)Rapid fire questions (01:03:59)—Additional ResourcesLearn more about Federated Hermes.Connect on LinkedIn or X. Connect with Ingrid on LinkedIn.

Data Centres, A Game Changer For Malaysian Contractors

Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 13, 2024 10:14

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has revealed that Malaysia has approved approximately RM115 billion worth of investments in data centres and cloud services. This is part of the country's push to be a sustainable Artificial Intelligence Data Centre destination in South East Asia. We speak to Adam Mohamed Rahim, Equity Research Analyst, RHB Research for which contractors will stand to benefit from this trend.Image Credit: freepik.com

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Decarbonizing Real Estate

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 30, 2024 9:47

Our analysts survey the hurdles, opportunities and investment trends in energy renovation.Please note that Laurel Durkay is not a member of Morgan Stanley's Research department. Unless otherwise indicated, her views are her own and may differ from the views of the Morgan Stanley Research department and from the views of others within Morgan Stanley. We make no claim that Ms Durkay's representations are accurate or complete.----- Transcript -----Cedar Ekblom: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Cedar Ekblom, Equity Research Analyst, covering the European building and construction sector for Morgan Stanley Research.Laurel Durkay: And I'm Laurel Durkay, head of the Global Listed Real Assets Team within Morgan Stanley Investment Management.Cedar Ekblom: And on this special episode of Thoughts on the Market, we'll discuss the opportunities, risks, and latest investment trends when it comes to decarbonizing buildings.It's Tuesday, April 30th, at 2pm in London.Laurel Durkay: And 9am in New York.Cedar Ekblom: So, let's take a step back. Picture the gleaming towers of New York, London, or Hong Kong. Now think about these buildings breathing out carbon dioxide. The built environment is responsible for about a third of all global energy consumption and CO2 emissions. And so, if we want to get to Net Zero by 2050, which means emitting as much CO2 into the atmosphere as we take out of it, decarbonizing the building stock is essential.We've been doing a lot of work in Europe from the research side to try and understand how the investment trends are linked to this topic. But Laurel, I wanted to have you on the podcast because I wanted to understand how you're coming at it from the other side as a real estate investor and portfolio manager.Laurel Durkay: Yeah, Cedar, so I've seen some of your notes and I actually wasn't too surprised by your conclusion that energy renovation is seeing rising investment momentum in Europe. And this is despite the high upfront costs which are driven by government regulation, build cost inflation and higher interest rates.Cedar Ekblom: Yeah, we decided to do this work because we've had a lot of incoming from investors around what's happening from an investment perspective because we have seen a few government policy sidesteps or backtracks in the last 12 to 18 months around this topic. And so, we did some proprietary survey work in the residential, non-residential and providers of capital space. And we had some really interesting outcomes.I think the most interesting was that despite the fact that government subsidies have been dialed back a little bit, and the cost of investment has gone up because of inflation, actually private investment is really robust. And I think it's because there is a clear economic incentive that both homeowners and non-residential building owners are actually talking to.I mean, the first one is that homeowners are telling us that they see a 12 per cent increase in their home equity value if they green that property. And when we look at the non-residential space, what we're seeing is that renovation budgets are up 4 per cent year over year, even in a backdrop of higher interest rates.We see a huge runway of investment to come through on this topic. It is multi-decade. It's not going to happen overnight.You're talking about 2.8 trillion euros of investment by 2030 on our estimates, and that number extending to potentially 5 trillion euros by 2050. And that's just in Europe.Laurel Durkay: So the scope and need for investment really is huge. What do you think are the hurdles to delivering this opportunity?Cedar Ekblom: It's such an interesting question. I mean, there are so many. It's a little bit daunting at points when you think about it, but we're looking at really complicated projects. We're looking at skills bottlenecks. We're looking at upfront costs being really high. We're also looking at energy policy, not necessarily being aligned in every region in Europe.So yes, it's going to cost you a lot, but basically the respondents to the surveys tend to suggest that the benefits are actually starting to outweigh those potential costs.So, Laurel, I think that there's been some really interesting overlaps between what you and I cover, but from different angles. Let me pivot to you. How do you think about sustainability when it comes to real estate investment in your seat?Laurel Durkay: Yeah, bottom line is that understanding and incorporating sustainability and real estate investing really is very important; and we need to be aware not only of the physical risks, but also those transition risks associated with buildings. Taking a step back, what I'm observing is that real estate is seeing the sustainability focus really play out from three different constituents, and that's from investors, from regulators, and from tenants.So, from that investor perspective, we're seeing increasing demand for sustainable linked financing investing. Think green bonds. In some cases, you're actually seeing more favorable spreads for green financing versus traditional -- and ultimately that means better cash flows for companies.We also have that coming from the government. What we see is a continued evolution on regulations, and there have been several real estate specific laws being adopted across the states.All of these have the objective of providing greater transparency on carbon emissions with the ultimate goal of reducing such emissions. Now lastly, for tenants, we're seeing increasing demand for sustainable and best in class buildings.There's actually a growing body of evidence that shows sustainability is impacting leasing decisions and resulting in rent premiumsCedar Ekblom: So, how do we think about integrating ESG into your investment process?Laurel Durkay: So, there's a number of different metrics that we're looking at. We've run a proprietary analysis really trying to identify the most financially material factors. And we've ultimately concluded that the most important factors to be looking at are the absolute level of emissions and then the progress towards reducing those emissions -- water and waste usage, green certified buildings -- among a number of other factors.Ultimately, what we need to do is put together a framework that helps us assess the expenditures in order to really adhere to the regulatory requirements that I was just describing and ultimately allow the buildings to enjoy operational cost savings from implementing sustainability measures.This is really about future proofing buildings and enhancing value.Cedar Ekblom: So, it sounds like really a topic around trying to understand where they may or may not be stranded assets. We've spoken a lot about this topic in Europe, but maybe you could talk a little bit about what's happening from a sort of policy backdrop in the US.Laurel Durkay: Yeah, so government really is driving a lot of this change, both at a federal and at a state level. So, from a federal perspective, it really is more of a carrot as opposed to a stick with regard to implementation and adoption, really rewarding those who embrace sustainability. Now, interestingly, from a state perspective, it's a bit more of a stick than a carrot.Buildings not in compliance will be subject to fines and penalties. It's actually estimated that those penalties could be upwards of 1 billion annually by 2030. I should also mention that the SEC is getting really involved with the adoption of new climate related disclosure requirements.Now this isn't real estate specific, but it is impactful, nonetheless. New requirements mandate companies to disclose material Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions.Right now, less than 30 per cent of US companies even attempt to disclose Scope 3, and that's even less for real estate. Now Cedar, these scope three emissions are really where our worlds intersect most given the built environment.So, for a typical property owner, Scope 1 emissions represent about 25 per cent. Scope 2 is about 55 per cent of their missions. And then the remainder is going to be this Scope 3. But if you look at a developer and an owner, that's where you see Scope 3 emissions range between 80 to 95 per cent of their total emissions.Cedar Ekblom: So, if we look towards the future, what are you hearing from clients and colleagues about where sustainability investment trends go from here?Laurel Durkay: I think the trends have to be towards reducing these Scope 3 emissions, or maybe I just I hope that's where the trend is. You really need for building developers and owners to focus on development processes, building products and materials, and you need to see innovation within that space.Now, how about from your side, Cedar? What are you hearing from various companies you cover about the trends they foresee?Cedar Ekblom: The building materials and products businesses are really bullish on the long-term investment horizon on this topic. And we can see that in some of the data in Europe. The new build environment is under a lot of pressure. Higher interest rates have impacted affordability, and we have some activity in new build down 20 to 30 per cent.And yet when you look at the renovation and the refurbishment sector, we actually have a much more resilient backdrop.So look, our companies are really bullish on this. We ultimately see this manifesting in a higher multiple for businesses linked to this theme over the medium term. In all honesty, we're really just at the beginning of this theme. We think there's a lot of runway of investment still to come and we're keeping an eye on it.So, with that, Laurel, I'd like to say, thanks for taking the time to talk.Laurel Durkay: It was great speaking with you, Cedar.Cedar Ekblom: And as a reminder to our listeners, if you've enjoyed thoughts on the market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen to the podcast. It helps more people to find the show.

Talking About the Future with Cathie Wood (Ep. 79)

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 3, 2024 49:16

In a world where technology rapidly reshapes the landscape of industries, disruptive innovation stands at the forefront of this transformation. It challenges the status quo, propels economies forward, and redefines what is possible. As we dive into the minds of those who navigate these territories, we gain invaluable insights into the future of finance, investment, and the global economy.In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Cathie Wood, CEO and CIO of Ark Invest, to explore the intricacies of disruptive innovation, the significance of technical analysis in investment strategies, and the potential underestimation of GDP growth due to technological advancements. Cathie Wood shares her bullish perspective on Bitcoin and emphasizes the importance of female leadership and coding in the future of finance.Cathie discusses: Her motivation for starting ARK Invest and the unique approach of the firmThe significance of Tesla in the context of artificial intelligence and its competitive advantagesHer perspective on GDP growth expectations and historical technology wavesHer view on Bitcoin as a monetary revolutionThe possibility of introducing more ETFsHer insights on the future of codingHer advice for young women in finance, focusing on knowledge, performance measurement, and staying focused on long-term goalsThe rapid growth and future valuation of disruptive innovation in equity marketsAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Cathie Wood: LinkedIn: Cathie WoodX: Cathie WoodWebsite: ARK InvestConnect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu VargheseAbout Our Guest:Cathie Wood registered ARK Investment Management LLC (“ARK”) as an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in January 2014. With over 40 years of experience identifying and investing in innovation, Cathie founded ARK to focus solely on disruptive innovation while adding new dimensions to research. Through an open approach that cuts across sectors, market capitalizations, and geographies, Cathie believes that ARK can identify large-scale investment opportunities in the public markets resulting from technological innovations centered around DNA sequencing, robotics, artificial intelligence, energy storage, and blockchain technology. As Chief Investment Officer (“CIO”) and Portfolio Manager, Cathie led the development of ARK's philosophy and investment approach and has ultimate responsibility for investment decisions.Prior to ARK, Cathie spent twelve years at AllianceBernstein as CIO of Global Thematic Strategies where she managed over $5 billion. Cathie joined Alliance Capital from Tupelo Capital Management, a hedge fund she co-founded, which in 2000, managed approximately $800 million in global thematic strategies. Prior to her tenure at Tupelo Capital, she worked for 18 years with Jennison Associates LLC as Chief Economist, Equity Research Analyst, Portfolio Manager and Director.

Exploring Canada's tech landscape – Evan Zehnal and Vishal Chopra

FidelityConnects

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 13, 2024 31:00

Today on the program, we welcome Evan Zehnal, Equity Research Analyst and Vishal Chopra, Equity Research Associate. They discuss the impact of macroeconomic factors on the tech sector, and highlight the challenges and opportunities amid economic uncertainties. Vishal covers Canadian technology and healthcare sectors, including software, hardware, pharmaceuticals, and med-tech companies. Evan focuses on innovative technologies within US software, cybersecurity, and internet sectors. They deep dive into AI and its impact on the tech sector, employment, and remote work. Evan discusses how AI enhances software development processes and user interactions through natural language processing including coding, iteration, testing, and user interface design. They touch on the challenges in chip supply and tech spending adding that global chip supply constraints affect capital spending, but anticipation of increased investment arises as supply challenges ease – this is driven by AI demand and private firms innovating with AI. Recorded on February 16, 2024 At Fidelity, our mission is to build a better future for Canadian investors and help them stay ahead. We offer investors and institutions a range of innovative and trusted investment portfolios to help them reach their financial and life goals. Fidelity mutual funds and ETFs are available by working with a financial advisor or through an online brokerage account. Visit fidelity.ca/howtobuy for more information. For the third year in a row, FidelityConnects by Fidelity Investments Canada was ranked the #1 podcast by Canadian financial advisors in the 2023 Environics' Advisor Digital Experience Study.

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Semis in Focus, Private Aviation Business Flying High

Bloomberg Businessweek

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 6, 2024 14:07 Transcription Available

Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. John Vinh, Equity Research Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets, shares his thoughts on the semiconductor space from the firm's Emerging Technology Summit. Andrew Collins, President & CEO of Sentient Jet, discusses growth for the on-demand market as well as sustainability efforts for the private aviation company.Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Paul Brennan. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Apple's iPhone Woes in China Deepen With a 24% Sales Plunge

Bloomberg Businessweek

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 5, 2024 33:13 Transcription Available

Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Technology Analyst Anurag Rana discusses Apple's iPhone sales in China falling by a surprising 24% over the first six weeks of this year, according to independent research that may stoke fears about worsening demand for the marquee but aging device. John Worth, EVP of Research and Investor Outreach at Nareit, talks about the impact of interest rates on the commercial real estate market. John Vinh, Equity Research Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets, shares his thoughts on the semiconductor space. Bloomberg News Global Economy Reporter Enda Curran provides the details of his Businessweek story Immigration Rage Drowns Out US Labor Market's Need for Workers. And we Drive to the Close with Nancy Prial, Co-CEO and Senior Portfolio Manager at Essex Investment Management. Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Paul Brennan. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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ASEAN E-commerce Hitting Maturity Levels

BFM :: Morning Brief

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 22, 2024 10:13

Even with its relaunch last December through a collaboration with Tokopedia, TikTok Shop remains under regulatory scrutiny in Indonesia. The platform's allowance of direct transactions on social media continues to breach local regulations. Nathan Naidu, Equity Research Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence shares his insights into the implications of this regulatory scrutiny and potential measures to mitigate its impact on their business.Image credit: Shutterstock.com

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Sarawak: Economic Opportunities Abound

BFM :: Morning Brief

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 21, 2024 11:06

We delve into how far Sarawak has come and the economic potential that lies ahead with Adam Mohamed Rahim, Equity Research Analyst, RHB Research as the Land of the Hornbills aims to achieve a GDP of 282 billion ringgit by 2030, double of the value achieved in 2023.Image credit: Shutterstock.com

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Bloomberg Surveillance: A 'Golden Buying Opportunity'

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 3, 2024 36:44 Transcription Available

Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management Chief Economist, says the Fed's easing of financial conditions could pose risks to the US economy. Cameron Dawson, NewEdge Wealth Chief Investment Officer, suggests that a potential repricing of rates would be a pain trade. Dan Ives, Wedbush Sr. Equity Research Analyst, says Apple's growth potential makes the stock a 'golden buying opportunity.' Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Large Cap Bank Analyst, advises incorporating bank stocks into investor portfolios and believes we'll see further consolidation in the industry. Norman Roule, Center for Strategic & International Studies Senior Adviser, discusses the latest in the Middle East after a senior Hamas official was killed in Beirut. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Right now, our conversation of the day. Synthesizing all this together. Torson Stock is chief economist at Apollo Global Management. Torson I'm going to pull in here a whole bunch of threads. The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index is showing massive accommodation, and yet I look at the old liboard, the news, Sofa, sofr and I'm seeing huge restriction within the short term paper market tensions on Wall Street and the ill liquidity on Wall Street. How urgent is it for the FED to make some direction on a March cut or dare I even say a January first cut? Well, it has a number of different dimensions. First, there is a dimension on the real economy. It's clear that the FED pivot has eased financial conditions dramatically, and this begins to run the risk that we might see a repeat of what happened at the citycon Valley Bank. Remember Chris Waller just said a few weeks ago the easing of financial conditions in Q two that boost the GDP growth to five percent in Q three. Could we see the same now where the easing of financial conditions after the fat pivot might actually be boosting the housing market, the label market, services inflation, goods inflation. We are not out of the woods when it comes to battling inflation. So on the real economy, absolutely, the easing of financial conditions is very supportive. There are some issues when it comes to the plumbing when the tightness as you're highlighting in very short term markets, and the FED for sure has to play this difficult talk of wall between do we want to ease financial condition on the rial side or how much can we ease financial conditions in the very front end of the curve. But this is the challenge for the FED. At the moment that you're highlighting, Torsten, you didn't listen. They didn't respond to the idea of financial conditions. They didn't seem to think it mattered at all at the last press conference. Why should it matter now? I mean we're going to actually hear them come back and say, actually, just kidding about that financial conditions question. Well, they were debating in October and September, well maybe financial conditions have done a lot of the work for us, and now they're saying, well, maybe financial conditions it doesn't really matter because it can fluctuate so much. So I still think that it's a little bit inconsistent what they're saying when that data dependency, it only talks about the real data, whereas the financial conditions impulse. If you take the easy and financial conditions that we've had since the fit pivot and stuff it into furpose the fed's model of the US economy, you will get a boom of up to one and a half percent growth over the next slevel quarters in GDP. It's going to be very supportive as a tailwind to the economic outlook. Although we did have Ganadi on earlier of TD securities, and he said even with this idea that inflation could remain stickier, that we could get this ongoing growth, the FED could still cut rates and still be restrictive. Given the positive real rate. Do you ascribe to that kind of thing or do you think that just means many fewer rate cuts going forward for the Fed. I think that's absolutely right that we have. Of course, for the better part of the last year, we have talked about higher for longer. Now the conversation is more restrictive for longer, because they can still be restrictive if inflation is coming down, because real interest rates is what matters. So if real interest rates are still positive as inflation comes down, the fact and according you also gradually begin to lower rates. But note also that if you look at the outlook for sofa futures, as also Tom was mentioning, you still have that the bottom will still be around three and a half four percent. So one very important conclusion for as an allocation is that we are not going back to zero. We have still higher for longer, in the sense that the level of interest rates, the level of the free rate on page one in your finance textbook, will be significantly higher for the next several years than where it was from the period from twosand and eight to twenty twenty two. Let's try and get to the half of what we're discussing. Care the interest rates sensitivity of the US economy exactly. And now what we've seen over the last two years is rates go up aggressively and not slow down the economy. And what you're suggesting is that as rates start to come in and financial conditions ease, that the economy picks up again. Can you help explain that to people why higher rates haven't slowed the economy down but easy find financial conditions will boost it. Ye. But what's very important in that debate, and that's also taking place on Twitter and X of course here at the moment, is that my lift very critically sophisticate. Important to remember that that is significantly a function of whether you talk about the interest rate sensitive components of GDP or the non interest rate sensitive components of GDP. If you split GDP into the cyclical components and the non signal components, the main component that is sensitive to interest rates is housing. And housing did respond dramatically to higher rates. So this whole idea that the economy didn't respond to higher rates, that's just completely wrong. Of course, the economy responded to rates. It was the interest rate sensitive parts that responded to rates going up. Housing started slowing down. But the non interest rate sensitive components, in this case travel, restaurants, hotels. After COVID had such a long tailwind that that more than dominate the slow down in the housing market. So splitting that debate away from the academic textbook, which we all love, is so important because it becomes so critical to think about did the parts of the economy that are sensitive to interest rates did they actually respond? And absolutely, in particular housing Kapix also of COMMERCIALI state things that are sensus of two interest rates they did absolutely respond to when interest rates window. This is a fantastic explanation. So let's build on it. Let's project this out. What are the forecasts now for you for GDP in the next couple of quarters. We heard from the likes of Max Kanner of HSBC who said, the biggest risk right now is that we have to reprice rates again higher because exactly of what you're talking about, what are you looking for in the data? Well, if I type ECFCG on my Bloomberg screen, I will see that over the next six months we are very close to zero, zero point four and zero point five on GDP for Q one and Q two. So the consensus answer to your question is GP growth is continuously slowing as a result of the fat's campaign of hiking rates. The new risk that has emerged is that because of the fit pivot, that means that the interest rates sensitive components that we're dragging down GDP for the better part of last year, they might now begin to rebound. Housing most importantly, case SHILLA is now up five percent. Case SHILLA is a very important leading indicator for the OEI, meaning the shelter components of the CPI, and shelter makes up forty percent of the index, So that means that if something that makes up forty percent of the index is about to rebound, we could come back to that discussion about maybe the rates markets we'll have to reprise to higher for long gun and more restrictive for longer. I just looked at the two year inflation adjusted yield. I haven't looked at it since time began Nixon was president, and I can use the word never over twenty years, the integran, or the duration of a high two year real rate, we've never seen. We had a spike in eight with a great financial crisis, but these sustained high two year real yields are absolutely unprecedented for global Wall Street. How unstable are we right now? I would say, at least from a fet perspective. If you just take the economic textbook out and think about what matters, it is absolutely as you're highlighting real rates, So real rates being at these levels would tell you that we're still in very restrictive territory. So the challenge here for the FIT is that they still want to have the soft landing, and we all want to have the soft landing. That will be the best outcome, of course, from so many dimensions. But what is beginning to matter is that they have now sucked so much liquidity out. We've gotten to a point where we are beginning to see some strains in the plumbing that you're highlighting. And that's why real rates it has a very significant different impact on the long end and what it means for the real economy relative to what high real rates means for the front end and what it means for financial markets as host. And this has been an absolute Cameron Dawson joins US now chief investment Officer at New Edge Wealth Camic and morning and happy New year, Good morning, Happy nowear are you sitting on the fence because I'm written this first line in your work. It says we could have a scenario where both bulls and hairs are right this year, which one is it? Well, I think that we have to be nimble because I believe that there is going to be a scenario where you could very easily see people get drawn even further into this market. We think positioning is overweight, but not quite as is extreme as it was in times like twenty twenty one or twenty eighteen. So you could see some pain get pulled in. But the other reality is that you could see a rationalization of the fact that sentiment is very extended and that valuations are extended. So it's how you react to market rallies or market corrections, I think is how you will win. In twenty twenty four we mentioned that HSBC. So let's talk about the work coming from Max Kentna this morning. Here's this line, biggest risk another repricing and rights. Do you agree with that one hundred percent? That's the pain trade. The pain trade is that everybody thinks that inflation is fully vanquished and then gets surprised if things like oil prices move higher. Wages end up being stickier than expected rates move higher, and then all of those stocks that rerated in the last two months up thirty forty percent because now they're not worried about their balance sheets anymore. Balance sheet risk becomes an issue again, and you get a reversion of a lot of the names that were lower quality that happened to lead at the end of last year. The modeled out earnings are nine percent ten percent. Dare I say double digit eleven percent earnings growth for this year? Is that in the price now or is that going to develop out in the first half of next year. It is in the price now, and I think that we always have to think about the path of twenty four will be pricing in what actually happens in twenty twenty five. So if a recession looks more likely in twenty twenty five, that's when you'll start to see those earning estements get cut into the out years. The thing that's the biggest challenge for us for earning estments in twenty four is the expectation that top line growth will re accelerate in a year where nominal growth because of inflation is expected to decelerate. Can you see that happen at the same time where we get less inflation, less pricing power, and yet we get a big acceleration in top So away for the romance of Apple and Microsoft. If you look at Staples and discretionary and all, you've got to model out there, what you go back from a six percent wonderment of growth back to four percent revenue growth? Yeah, very likely. And there are idiots and pockets where you're going to see improvement. You know, healthcare had its earnings down almost twenty percent last year, that will flip positive this year just because of easy comps. So that's where we're trying to look outside of just the macro drivers, Staples being a great example of one that can't get away from this inflationary dynamic, and look instead to the more idiotsyncratic opportunities our banks to douse syncratic opportunities. And I ask with JP Morgan at new record high, Yeah, I mean you've seen such a huge rerating. Of course, there's pockets of banks where there is still inexpensive areas. You know, banks do have the tailwind of a less inverted curve, hopefully a reopening of capital markets. But then we have to consider things like BTFP, does it get re extended Basil three in game, all of these things that could be big drivers of bank earnings or at least appetite for bank risk as we go through twenty twenty four. It sounds like you're not buying the rotation story. I am buying the rotation story. Yeah. I think that we have to have an open mind that even great companies with great balance sheets, with monopolies could still underperform simply because positioning is so crowded and because valuations are so elevated. That's the smartest insight I've heard in the last forty eight hours. Are we going to have rotation or not? That's a really, really undersaid cool question. I think that that was really some of the anks behind the sell off that we've seen that was living, that was really led by big tech. We were talking about this yesterday with Apple, and I guess that you know, how much does that have legs versus what we saw last year, which was a headfake and everyone came in saying, all right, this is the year to sell tech, and by the end of the year of them was saying in Nvidia Magnificent seven, it's going to change the world. Kumba Yah it's going to save the United States, I mean, et cetera, et cetera. And what a different setup because at the very end of twenty twenty two you had record outflows from tech ETFs. You look at the course of twenty twenty three, you had forty billion dollars of inflows into technology compared to twenty billion dollars of outflows out of things like energy and financials and healthcare. So really this could just be about positioning and pain trades and the fact that you already re rated tech because now it's already just one turn away from its twenty twenty one peak valuation, so you're hitting a ceiling. Let's put a couple of stories together. You said, maybe the biggest paying trait the risk here is high, right, so reprice give rights again at Lisa brought up banks. How woud the banks respond to that given what we saw last year? Yeah, I mean it would raise balance sheet risk again. It probably puts into sharp focus again issues with commercial real estate because we've all kind of breathed this collective sigh of relief that higher for longer is dead if it's not dead, and the path of the cost of capital instead of the last forty years of being down is actually marching slightly higher and in a choppy path. Could mean that we have to reprice some of the risk in some of these balance sheets. Is it just JP Morgan then everyone else? When we talk about the banks, is that what we're talking about? JP Morgan then everybody else? We actually just are looking very deeply at some of the regional banks. Some of the regional banks are underpriced. We think if we look at the balance sheets, they're not as extended as or as issued as some parts of regional banks that some don't have as much commercial real estate exposure, have great presence in their local areas, so they're trading at very discounted valuations. If we're going down in value, that's one of the areas we're actually looking. Yeah, it's somebody at you know, the last five six, seven days at JP Morgan's capturing one out of five profit dollars in American banking. If that isn't the third or fourth or fifth national bank of the United States, I don't know what is. There is nothing else. It's JP Morgan versus everyone else. That's been a story the last year. I'll refer to our guests done this. But yeah, I mean they're capturing some twenty percent of profits according to the source. I'm sorry you don't have a source in front of me to side. I think it's it's the it's the Bramow newsletter. You know that newsletters. It's a muster r. It's a muster reader. Camic. Thank you got to leave this. It's going to catch up. It's going to say a happy new Year, Cameron Dawson, the new h wel let's get right to it. This is so important right now. Dan Ives joins us. He is a bull on any number of technology companies. We wait for him to come out on controlled data here and with a birecommendation at some point. That's a little bit of history there. Dan Ives with webbush Dan, what's a channel check? What exactly is a channel check? I just I just don't see it. Yeah, and look for us in terms of our easier supply gene checks, really trying to focus on what demand looks like in terms of the suppliers for iPhones. There have been no cuts from an iPhone perspective as of data, and I think that's that's bullets and ultimately that shows demand through howadays season has actually been on part, actually better than expected. And to me, that's what I focus on rather than the haters continue, Okay, but data tell Okay, you've been gracious about this, and they've been gracious about your twenty twenty three ganormous success. But when you do a channel check, are you counting iPhones? Are you over in China guessing the manufacturing line? Are you in the store on Madison Avenue looking at how many people from Lisa's family are buy an Apple loot? What's a channel check? Yeah? All above time. I mean, we feel we're in Apple stores around the country, around the world. We're also talking to suppliers basically trying to triangulate to what we think units is going to look like for the quarter and for the year. And that's how we've done it from the beginning, I mean, over the last decades so. And it's one of you're always gonna have different opinions. You just talk about the Barclays downgrade. We continue to stick with our checks. That that has navigated us, you know, a lot more right than wrong. I think when you look at I from fifty, it's easy to take shots, you know, relative to maybe some of the fears out there, especially fire and a crowd theater first day at the trading you know a year I it's a groundhog day. You know, we saw it last year as well. It's underestimated. Two hundred and fifty million. Is the install based upgrade cycle that's due in that window has an upgrade in four years, Dan, let's get into it. You mentioned Barkleys, Tom mentioned it too. I mentioned this, so let's get to that line. The continued period of weak results coupled with multiple expansion not sustainable in that it is a statement of fact, and then there's an opinion of the end. The statement of fact is iPhone cuts. They haven't been great for the last twelve months. That's the fact. Yet it's been coupled with multiple expansion, also a fact. The opinion piece is they're saying it's not sustainable. Are you suggesting that it is? Yeah, So what I'm suggesting is that the next three to four quarters you're going to have iPhone growth. You have growth coming out in China despite the fears and abs are the bare noise, and I think the most important thing is services, and I think services is going to be teenager type of growth. That's key to the multiples Manson story. And then we go into later this year, there's gonna be more monization from an AI as we talked about. That's gonna be the next layer. I think it all results and this is gonna be viewed as more of a golden buying opportunity rather than the start to hit the elevator exit. How much Dan, is your bullish call predicated on this idea of rate cuts, the idea of rates coming down as much as people think, yeah, look, that's probably five ten percent from multiple perspective. I mean, as we saw twenty two to the disaster twenty three in terms of now popcorn movement, in terms of FED gonna cut in twenty four. Look, it speaks to our overall bull tech thesis, right that the soft landing Killsberry do a boys soft landing. You're starting to see now more and more focus on tech. I do think now. You know, as Pharaoh's talked about multiple expansion twenty three, I think the numbers show it in twenty four. That's the difference. Twenty four is where the numbers come through, and tech twenty three was more than multiple expansion. Well, you mentioned China and how China demand is going to pick back up, But I wonder if it's going to be for iPhones. And I know we've been talking about this for a long time, but yesterday this caught my attention. The Chinese automaker BYD surpassed Tesla in terms of deliveries for the first time. You're seeing that really start to be a main theme. People said that that was never going to happen. People say that it's never going to happen, that Chinese consumers are going to throw out their iPhones. What makes you so confident that we're not going to see the same thing happen in the iPhone cycle that we're seeing right now in the electric vehicle one? Yeah, great question. And look, when you focus on Tesla, I mean that's essentially two horse race between TESTSA and BID. Tests actually beat numbers and China was strong for them. But I think it does speak to look domestically BID they're beast. I mean, they've done a phenomenal job, but Tessa is always going to be aware there in China. When you look at what's happening within the China market from an idphone perspective, it speaks to just a massive and all bays that they built in China. You have one hundred million iPhones in China right now, window of an upgrade opportunity, and the irony is despite geopolitical the last eighteen months, Apples gained three inch books of market share because the average high end, as in middle income Chinese consumer, they want an iPhone despite government basically trying to push WAWE. And I'm so pleased to Lisa brought up the EV comparison because I think that industry right now has the potential to be the industry story of twenty twenty four and beyond byd beyond Tesla. How much of a reality check are we getting for the industry for the likes of GM and Ford, I think a big reality shacka. That's why you've seen Farley. I think Mary they pull back, you know, in terms of a bit from the EV strategy in Detroit. And the problem here is do consumers want EV or they just want to tessel And I think that that's really the issue that's really starting to play out. And at this point, Tesla's doubling down on evs, but no doubt there's been I think much more moderate demand that we're seeing across the board, and you know, I think as that puts out, you're going to see others peel back while others go more aggressively, like the likes of the Tesla. I wonder what you think the endgame actually is. If you speak to the leadership at GM of thought, they've been generous with that time we've had this conversation with them. They talk about a change in execution, maybe not a change in strategy. Would you expect to see a change in strategy this year and what would that look like? I think slight changing strategy where maybe they pull back on some of their long term numbers in terms of EV when they expect to go fully EV you know, as a two thousand and thirty four thirty five. Look, the UAW also put their back against the wall. It's a different cost structure and they're trying right now to it's a tight balancing act that they're trying to get to in Detroit. And I think also it's tough going up against the likes of Tesla and some of these other evs. That's been a big part of the problem that they're focused on, especially now with the UAW. Increase in the cost structure, well said Dan. Going to hear from your happy new year, Sir Dan is Wetbush. Jere Cassidy, Large Camp Bank analyst that RBC Capital markets rights in this. After a tumultuous twenty twenty three, we believe the banks are our positioned for investors to warn outsize returns in twenty twenty four and investors should overweight the sector in their portfolios. Jer Cassidy, I'm pleased to say join us. Now let's go straight to it. Number one question. This is a question for me, and I know it's a question for Lisa. Is this off the back of high yields or lower yields? I would say John that we're expecting that the yields gravitate lower, especially at the front end of the curve when you take a look at what the Fed has done. If we truly are at the terminal rate for FED funds in the past four tightening cycles when they started to cut rates, it's always been a catalyst for bank stocks. And think what we're expecting as the market is that at some point in twenty four the Fed could cut your term interest rates. Is this for bank stops or is this for JP Morgan at least a very good question, because JP Morgan has been the risk off trade and it's been spectacular, as you guys mentioned, record highs. And so if we're going into a risk on environment, which I believe we are, if the FED is finished tightening, then actually JP Morgan is probably going to be a source of funds for many investors. It is a stock that is owned everywhere. It's been a great stock, but risk on may be the better way to go with a Bank America or City Group or others like that a source of funds. I love that it's a euphemism for it gets sold, so that you could raise money to buy something you think is going to return more the fact that you think it's going to be Bank of America. Do you also lean into the Mic Mayo idea that City Group and its whole revamp with some of its streamlining, hutting units, massive job cuts is going to be the real winner over time is going to be certainly an opportunity to be a winner. They've still got a lot of heavy lifting. Jane Frasier's leading the charge here, of course, and I think it's a very big, complicated job. It's turning around the notion liner. There's early progress, a lot of heavy lifting, as I said to do. But if she can succeed in the management, succeed this stock is definitely undervalued and it has great upside, but it's been a value trapped for many years, so we'll have to wait and see. Jarred I went to a seminar once at a firm long ago called Tucker, Anthony and Rlday, and I was lectured that banks are supposed to return nominal GDP plus a little bit. I'm going to center tendency. Is that make an eight, nine, ten percent once in your lifetime? JP Morgan has turned that upside down. You didn't see this coming. You're the expert, nor did anybody else. The returns of ten years, of twenty years or fifteen percent or so. Their thirty year return is solid double digit return. What did Harrison? What did Diamond get right? Tom? It's really Jamie Diamond. I think you could get give Harrison credit, I guess for merging with Bank one when Jamie Diamond was their CEO. And of course Diamond has taken over since then, and it's been his steadfast focus on delivering for shareholders, both through expansion and growth, but at the same time controlling expenses. They also have done a very good job in diversifying their revenue. Their consumer banking business, similar to Bank America, is very very profitable. On top of that, they've got a very strong capital markets business. The bear Stearns acquisition, which was very difficult in early years because of the reputational problems that came along with it, has worked out extremely well for them. So I would say the diversity of revenue, Tom and the focus on leading or delivering for shareholders. But back to Andrew Jackson, who you covered, you know years ago, Girardi, I mean, are they the fifth bank of the Uni United States? Over the holidays, somebody said one out of five profit dollars comes to JP Morgan. They're building their palace on fifth on Park Avenue right now. I mean to the Butch Cassidy idea, who are these guys? Are they the Bank of the United States. I don't think they're the Bank of the United States. But they have done a great job in delivering for their shareholders and for their employees and their communities as well. It's been a big growth engine for the company. This economy, the global economy as well. And again it's this leadership that they have under Diamond and his executive management team. And Tom, you know, many of his senior folks have left JP Morgan and are now CEOs of other banks, like Charlie Sharp at Wells Fargo, and so he's got a very deep bench and they execute. And that's the key. Tom. You know, banking is a commodity business. As you well know, it's all about execution. And JP Morgan is that you executed extremely well. What is the business model though, that you want to execute as a big US bank? Chard And this, I think is one of the key questions that we had during last year when the rise of private capital, private equity, private debt really was challenging the capital markets activity of certain big financial institutions. Can the JP Morgans, the Bank of Americas, the city groups get into the private debt world that in some ways has been stealing their lunch? I think it Ken, Lisa, And when you think about it, and you're right, the private equity private debt area is certainly growing much faster than the banks. But believe it or not, the shadow banking industry has been taking the bank's market share for forty years you go back to the early eighties and you look at the market share that the banks had of lending into the United States, it was well over forty percent. The private or shadow banking market was in the low twenties. Today it's completely flip flopped. The bank's market share now is in the low twenties and the shadow banking is in the fifty over fifty percent. So the banks have done it through consolidation. You know, when Tom and I were young, we had over eighteen thousand banks in the United States in the early nineteen eighties. Today there's forty six hundred. JP Morgan has been a big beneficiary of that, and they've been able to create those efficiencies. So yes, they can compete. They will compete, and I don't think that the banks are going to be put out of business, but certainly they don't have the market share that they used to have. But we have to remember too, the economy has grown dramatically in forty years, and they have the smallest slice of the pie, but they're more profitable than ever, not just JP Morgan, but other banks as well. What about the smaller banks, Given the fact that you're talking about a bigger slice of just overall activity. You haven't seen that so much in the smaller banks, and with rates forbading high, you're going to have real commercial real estate pressures as well. It's interesting, it depends on you know how small the bank is and who owns it. I've always maintained this banking system we have in the United States is obviously very polarized. You got the very small banks at one end and the very large banks at the other end. And if it's a non if it's if the owners of the smaller banks, private banks, or mutual savings banks or another group of banks, if their owners are comfortable with earning returns on equities of four or five percent, and they're not going to sell the bank as long as they have FDIC insurance, they're going to remain in business indefinitely. On the other end, if you do have a bank with thirty billion in assets and it's not earning up to what its shareholders want it's to earn, then they're going to have to consolidation. Consolidation is going to continue. We're in a pause right now, but the long term trend has been consolidation in the industry will continue to consolidate in the future and argue, Jared, let's finish on Washington if we can. I was speaking to your colleague Amy with Silverman just yesterday and were reflected on a line that came from Lori Cavasina, who I think described presidential politics in the election on the horizon like staring at the sun. I just wonder if that's what it's like for you. Have you given any thought to changes in leadership in Washington and what might mean for the companies to fall under your cover? John, It's a good question because it's going to be the topic du jour this year, of course, with the election coming. And what we can say is that under the current administration there's been more regulation of banks, particularly with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. We don't know who's going to be running, you know, just yet in November, but if Trump is the candidate for the other party, the Republican Party, and if he was to win, his administration had less regulation for banks. So if that administration was to come back, you would have to expect they would change the heads of different regulatory agencies in twenty twenty five, and it probably would be less regulation for the banks as we move forward, you know, Johnny. I think Bloomberg Radio is missing it today because we're seeing the fireplace with your dacity here on Bloomberg Television talks about inflation South Paris, Maine. Three hundred and twenty five dollars per cord of red oak that's delivered to Shake Cassidy and he's he's popping like eight night cords of winter. He used a thing about that. I mean, it's adding up. It's expensive. But don't you love the smell. The smell's great. The damn dog is over by the fireplace. The smell you know, this dog's called Elizabeth. We won't call Aaron. We want to thank you, Joe Capital of Marcus, Thank you, sir. Let's get to it, and we do it with an authority that we have had through Auto Tournament of the Eastern Mediterranean. Norman rule joins us now senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the courses work for the nation in intelligence. Norman. When I say Lebanon, for all of us of a certain persuasion, we are completely formed by something frankly is stunning forty years ago, which is the Beirut Barracks bombing. When we lost marines at accountable iwo Jima level. Where are we now with Lebanon, with Hesbela, Do we have a relationship? Was it forever fractured forty years ago? That's an excellent point, and I regret I remember that incident well and lost friends. The event of forty years ago actually had a different message for the world. The US pulled out of Lebanon at that time, and Osama bin Laden later stated that watching the withdrawal of the United States from Lebanon was one of the motivators for him to undertake his operations because he realized the West could be pushed back out of the region. Are we being pushed back now? I mean within the multiple fronts at Lisa Abramowitz's outlined this morning Gods of the West Bank and again up to the border with Lebanon as the West is America being pushed out now? No, we have a very different profile, and indeed, diplomacy is likely going to increase in intensity and come out weeks because we need to come up with a way to move. Lebanese has belowed north of the Israeli border so that Israeli citizens can return to their homes. The thousands tens of thousand of Israeli citizens to open their businesses, go to school, and also so that tens of thousands of Lebanese can return south to that border which has become such a flashpoint in recent weeks. Yeah, hundreds of thousands of people have been misplaced or displaced as a result of some of the fighting on both sides. But Norman and I'm curious whether this is an escalation the fact that Israel did attack according to Hamas, but also with a wink, wink, nod nod from Israeli officials to kill this is Mamas executive. Well, to be clear, Israel has stated from the beginning of the October seventh massacred that it would eradicate the Hamas leadership responsible for that action, and therefore this is no surprise. I think what you have to look at is this drone attack, which Israel has not admitted but is understood to have undertaken, took place in an incredibly secure, prey conscious neighborhood, and it demonstrates an exquisite and dynamic intelligence capacity. So as Hesbula thinks about it's connor its response to this, it's got to think about what is known around us and what can we get away with and what will happen to the people who might be involved in that attack against Israel. Do you have any sense, Norman, of what the conversations are like with Hamas, with Hesbelah, with the Iranian leadership, given the fact that a lot of people think that they're taking some cues from Iran, that there has been funding from Iran, that you have the Iranian warship going to the Red Sea, and the huthis also Iranian fact making noise and trying to interrupt Western shipping lines. Iran It's proxies have no strategic drivers to involve themselves more fully in this conflict. It would impact multiple strategic equities for a game that is uncertain that they have multiple incentives to continue and perhaps raise the intensity of attacks against Israel to show that they have skin in the resistance game. I should also note that today, the January third, is the fourth anniversary of the killing of Cossum Solomoni, and that's a day when one would expect Iranian proxies to attack US or Israeli versus just for that symbolic anniversary. Exactly where I wanted to go normally let's talk about it, the assassination of the major General. It's easy to forget that it ever happened because several weeks later, many weeks later, we were all drowning in a global pandemic. What has happened since then with the relationship between the United States and Iran, between two different white Houses, very little. The indirect engagement that took place did produce the possibility of some sort of engagement, a hostage released by the Iranians in exchange for the release of personnel. But Iran's regional activities did not change, and I don't think the White House expected them to change. More So, Iran's nuclear program has continue to expand. And here's the important point. Iran is now producing enriched uranium at level that no state that is not pursued a nuclear weapon has ever produced. It has no civilian use for the nature of its current enrichment. So you have to ask yourself the question, has the West de facto recognized the Iranian military nuclear program? The White House would say no. The facts do raise the question. Norman a tough way to Segui here, but I'm going to do it as one final question. Taiwan continues to come up within our first of the year conversations. Do we have good intelligence on mainland China? The United States intelligence program against China, has stated by Central Intelligence Agency had Bill Burns, is robust and works significantly. I won't comment on those operations to the extent that I know of them, but I will say that this remains such a priority that it's an all source intelligence programs at all imagery and a variety of different aspects. We're going to have a good understanding of some of China's activities that will provide the warning policy maker's need for the update. You're insights so valuable, Norman Roll there for the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Thank you, sir. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is BloombergSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Bloomberg Surveillance: Telsey Recaps Holiday Shopping

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Play Episode Listen Later Dec 26, 2023 40:50 Transcription Available

Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO, recaps a busy holiday shopping season and says there's been a moderation in consumer spending across all income levels. Dan Ives, Wedbush Sr. Equity Research Analyst, predicts Apple will hit a whopping $4 trillion market capitalization next year. Matt Miskin, John Hancock Investment Management Co-Chief Investment Strategist, predicts the Fed will have less influence over markets in 2024. Tom Tzitzouris, Strategas Head of Fixed Income Research, says rate cuts are easier to justify for central banks outside the US than for the Fed. Norman Roule, Center for Strategic & International Studies Senior Adviser, overviews escalating tensions in the Middle East as the Israel-Hamas war threatens to spill over. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Surveillance: End of the Everything Rally?

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 20, 2023 36:40 Transcription Available

Michael Hirson, 22V Research Head of China Research, discusses a new NBC News report that claims Xi Jinping warned President Biden that Beijing intends to reunify Taiwan. Frances Donald, Manulife Investment Management Global Chief Economist & Strategist, says we've already entered a global easing cycle. Jim Caron, CIO, Portfolio Solutions Group, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, advises a balanced portfolio approach going into what he expects to be a 'very rocky year'. Dan Ives, Wedbush Sr. Equity Research Analyst, says Apple margins will continue to expand despite pressure from EU regulators. Aaron David Miller, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Senior Fellow, says 'huge' problems lie ahead for the US in addressing the Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping vessels.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Hoping For A Stretch In Demand For The Glove Sector

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Play Episode Listen Later Dec 12, 2023 8:06

Rubber glove maker stocks performed very well during the pandemic. This was largely fuelled by global shortages and strong demand from both institutional investors as well as retailers. Now, production has rationalised and demand has fallen leaving the major players standing with lots of cash reserves. Oong Chun Sung, Equity Research Analyst, RHB Research shares with us on what lies ahead for one of Malaysia's leading export sectors.Image credit: Shutterstock.com

Positive 2024 Outlook For Malaysian Banks

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Play Episode Listen Later Dec 8, 2023 10:15

With the conclusion of third quarter results, we take stock of how the bank players have performed. Samuel Woo, Equity Research Analyst, MIDF shares with us how loan growth has been so far and what we can expect on dividend yields moving forward.Image credit: Shutterstock.com

Online Shopping In Southeast Asia Heats Up

BFM :: Morning Brief

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 6, 2023 10:48

ByteDance's TikTok has reportedly agreed to invest in a unit of Indonesia's GoTo group to restart its ecommerce business while the soon-to-be-listed Shein and PDD's Temu have been taking advantage of consumers' love of a bargain. Nathan Naidu, Equity Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence talks about this battle for Southeast Asian consumers' eyeballs and wallets.Image credit: Shutterstock.com

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Bloomberg Surveillance: Tesla's 'Historic' Cybertruck

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Play Episode Listen Later Dec 1, 2023 41:21 Transcription Available

Liz Young, SoFi Head of Investment Strategy, says the correlation between stocks and bonds could remain positive going forward. Lauren Goodwin, New York Life Investments Economist & Director of Portfolio Strategy, predicts the story around technology in 2024 will expand into the digital infrastructure. Nadia Martin Wiggen, Svelland Capital Director, says she doesn't see a long-term negative price path for oil. Antonio Neri, Hewlett Packard Enterprise President & CEO, discusses the company's expanded partnership with Nvidia into the generative AI space. Dan Ives, Wedbush Sr. Equity Research Analyst, breaks down the "historic" launch of the Tesla Cybertruck.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

REPLAY Cathie Wood of ARK: Going Back to the Future with AI

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 9, 2023 42:11

Cathie Wood is CEO of ARK Investment Management LLC (“ARK”). Prior to ARK, Cathie spent twelve years at AllianceBernstein as Chief Investment Officer of Global Thematic Strategies where she managed $5 billion. Cathie joined Alliance Capital from Tupelo Capital Management, a hedge fund she co-founded which, in 2000, where she managed $800 million in global thematic strategies. Prior to her tenure at Tupelo Capital, she worked for 18 years with Jennison Associates as Chief Economist, Equity Research Analyst, Portfolio Manager and Director. She started her career in Los Angeles, California at The Capital Group as an Assistant Economist. This was our second podcast recording together but the first for the Fiftyfaces Podcast. We started by tracing Cathie's upbringing and the fusion of innovation, entrepreneurship and travel that led to a peripatetic youth, including a spell in Ireland. We hear what drove her interest in finance and investing, and how she started her career. Our conversation moves then to the founding of ARK, and the almost spiritual reckoning that led to Cathie's decision to strike out on her own. We hear about her commitment to transparency and openness when it comes to research, and to the overarching importance of making their research open source. The team at ARK believes that this makes their process more robust, more resilient and adaptive, and they give the example of the evolution of their "autonomous cars" segment to embrace all of AI and how they have cross-checked some of their assumptions around growth in other sectors. Given how topical the subject is, we dive into a discussion about AI and its likely impact on the investment management industry. Cathie's thesis is an optimistic one, that should get the industry back to its original, forward-looking focus on themes and creativity. Finally we speak about pushback, criticism and debate that ARK and its theses have occasionally attracted. Series 5 of 2023 is kindly sponsored by With Intelligence, which has the mission of connecting investors and managers to the right people and data to raise and allocate assets effectively The music in this podcast series - provided by Julia Kwamya - is available on her album on Spotify: Feel Good about Feeling Bad https://open.spotify.com/album/7lTQWSHeaVo3xHuF9q8ilv?si=uvGJZX7FQ9-2wX-0e951ZA&nd=1

ceo director california ai los angeles ireland series wood back to the future ark going back chief economists chief investment officer portfolio managers capital group alliancebernstein equity research analyst jennison associates

REPLAY: Episode 213 Cathie Wood of ARK: Going Back to the Future with AI

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 8, 2023 42:10

Cathie Wood is CEO of ARK Investment Management LLC (“ARK”). Prior to ARK, Cathie spent twelve years at AllianceBernstein as Chief Investment Officer of Global Thematic Strategies where she managed $5 billion. Cathie joined Alliance Capital from Tupelo Capital Management, a hedge fund she co-founded which, in 2000, where she managed $800 million in global thematic strategies. Prior to her tenure at Tupelo Capital, she worked for 18 years with Jennison Associates as Chief Economist, Equity Research Analyst, Portfolio Manager and Director. She started her career in Los Angeles, California at The Capital Group as an Assistant Economist. This was our second podcast recording together but the first for the Fiftyfaces Podcast. We started by tracing Cathie's upbringing and the fusion of innovation, entrepreneurship and travel that led to a peripatetic youth, including a spell in Ireland. We hear what drove her interest in finance and investing, and how she started her career. Our conversation moves then to the founding of ARK, and the almost spiritual reckoning that led to Cathie's decision to strike out on her own. We hear about her commitment to transparency and openness when it comes to research, and to the overarching importance of making their research open source. The team at ARK believes that this makes their process more robust, more resilient and adaptive, and they give the example of the evolution of their "autonomous cars" segment to embrace all of AI and how they have cross-checked some of their assumptions around growth in other sectors. Given how topical the subject is, we dive into a discussion about AI and its likely impact on the investment management industry. Cathie's thesis is an optimistic one, that should get the industry back to its original, forward-looking focus on themes and creativity. Finally we speak about pushback, criticism and debate that ARK and its theses have occasionally attracted. Series 5 of 2023 is kindly sponsored by With Intelligence, which has the mission of connecting investors and managers to the right people and data to raise and allocate assets effectively The music in this podcast series - provided by Julia Kwamya - is available on her album on Spotify: Feel Good about Feeling Bad https://open.spotify.com/album/7lTQWSHeaVo3xHuF9q8ilv?si=uvGJZX7FQ9-2wX-0e951ZA&nd=1 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

ceo director california ai los angeles ireland series wood back to the future ark going back chief economists chief investment officer portfolio managers capital group alliancebernstein equity research analyst jennison associates

Surveillance: Pricing In Recession Fears with Peter Tchir

Yet Another Value Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 8, 2023 31:03 Transcription Available

Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, points to potential issues in the global supply chain amid ongoing geopolitical conflicts. Libby Cantrill, PIMCO Managing Director of Public Policy, says the margin of error for House Republicans to avoid a government shutdown has narrowed. Dan Ives, Wedbush Sr. Equity Research Analyst, predicts that Apple could look to buy ESPN. Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler Senior Research Analyst, says the commercial real estate market is in the midst of a rare phenomenon.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance Full Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Our guest of the Morning to synthesize all this with our question. Peter Cheers joins us. Now ahead of macro strategy at Academy Securities, you look for price up, yield down. What will that do to the equity market. I think for now it's going to be good. I think we see four thirty on tens before before we see four to seventy five. I think the pain trade is actually to lower yields. A lot of people who are bullished at five kind of got short again. I think that works until we get down about four thirty five. Equities rally on the back of that. Then we realize we're getting here because things like oil copper receding because the economy is actually slowing fast so I think at that point that's when the recession fear start getting priced back into stock. Taking Academy Securities three year view, you've got that slowing global demand. Nick bennenbrook On from Wells Fargo stunning with a two point four percent global GDP call. Can you own equities out with a three year vision? I think you could if you had a three year vision. I think right now it's more like a two to three week vision. Everything's so volatile. We don't know where this economy is turning. We don't know what's going on there. And one thing that's starting to scare me is we're having a lot of discussions about the Middle East. We're starting to hear a little bit more concerns about supply chains. I don't think it's an issue today, but if as this drags on, if there's any degree of escalation, supply chains become an issue again. So I think that will be a big drag on the economy. The Middle East crude last month is just unreal. To see a move of almost eleven percent lower on WTI, even with the heightened tension in the Middle least, A lot of people appointing to maybe demand starting to crack in a certain places around the world, Europe one, maybe even the United States gone into next year. What's your view on that. Yeah, I think the last time I was here, I said buying oil was not going to be a good hedge for escalation there because oil had been under so much pressure before, and I think that's what we're seeing again. There's just that lack of demand and the Saudis definitely have the ability to turn on the tap if they want. We're clearly trying to figure out how to work with Venezuela, and so far it looks like Aram's going to continue to pump oil despite the sanctions, despite the height intensions there. So there's not much in favor of oil right now, and I think that's a very crowded long position, so I could see that breaking lower coming into next year. You mentioned a two to three week view. I'm with you. You You know what's about to happen. Then in the next two to three weeks, we're going to get a load of people publishing their outlooks for twenty twenty four. Can you help us understand how you get any visibility whatsoever into next year? What's the strategic view going into you know, I think there's still some big themes. I think AI, how people are using AI, the efficiency that that could cause for companies. I think that's going to be a big theme still. So you can look over that. Where are we going to be on the defense spending? Where are we going to be in terms of geopolitical spending. I think the reshoring is still real. I think a reasonably healthy economy with their decent jobs is still the overriding thing. So I think markets are a little bit more volatile, volatile right now than the underlying economy is. So if you put this together to what you said earlier, that you see benchmark ten year yields getting down to four point three five percent before going back up to four point seventy five percent, or just basically they're heading lower. Does that mean that we're going to have slower growth but still the soft landing and that it basically people are going to get a little concerned about stocks, but that it sets up a rally. And I'm just trying to understand. No, I think a very convoluted range of thoughts. So I think as we move towards four thirty five, you get this, Oh, this is all good for stocks, and then as you start moving below four forty, I think people realize, oh man, we're getting there. Because things are not in the economy. The job market has changed, you know, white collar workers aren't doing as well as they were. You're seeing, i think, some potential for spending. You're seeing little cracks in the housing prices. So I think, all of a sudden, by year end, we're going to be back on a hard landing discussion and it'll be the boy who Cried Wolf, but we'll all be back talking about no more soft landing. We've overdone it. So you think that at that point, treasures will continue to be Haven's once again, even though arguably one of the biggest drivers of the yield move has been Washington, d C. And it doesn't look like that's changing. That's not changing. But again that's a three five ten year sort of pain. It's you know, we get ahead of ourselves. And I do think the one problem we all have is the bond market's so big. You talk about these numbers, two hundred and fifty billion, and it's huge, but it's you know, a fraction of twenty five trillions. So I think the ability to digest this you see corporate bonds come out twenty two billion yesterday, I believe it was you know, there's no problem digesting this, so I think the market's pretty healthy. I think people see yields as attractive. You're going to see people continue to add to that, so I think that's fine. It's going to be the risk side of things that gets people a little bit more spooked. Tell me about the November real yield shift we've seen. We've seen the ten year real yield migrate two point five zero percent to two point one nine percent. That makes things easier for everybody, right, it does. But I think the nominal yields still play a big role. They're still relatively high, and we had that move from you know, three seventy five to five, so we haven't clawed a lot of that back. I think there's this long you know, invariable lag time is really long. This time people did such a good job locking in yields. It's only now that you're hearing more and more people have to roll over their debt. Right if you issue to your debt back in the hey day, Now it's rolling over. Three year debt's not quite rolling over. So I think we're just starting to see that slow down impact. And I think one point John brings up, we've got what we've been calling this faux liquidity, this fake liquidity. It feels like the markets are super liquid at any given price point, but the ability to gap high or low is there. So I think we got pushed to five percent by people getting stopped out, pushing on yields. We're now got back to four fifty in a heartbeat because people are getting stopped out. So that's what we're trying to I think manage is like, what's the real noise versus the signal? You mentioned the Great Financinc. The Great Financinc. Of the pandemic, the huge wealth transfer we had from Treasury to the consumer. Consumer balance sheets were stronger. Everyone under the Sunny wonder House remortgage termed out that debt low rates. Corporate America did the same thing. One place didn't Treasury standrug Amit has been very critical of leadership a Treasury over the last i don't know, five years through that low interest rate period not termin out the debt. What are your thoughts on that? What do you think about that conversation? Yeah, I think they should have done what corporations did. I'm always a big believer, right, you know, borrolong it blocks in, you reduce volatility. And we're having a lot of conversation with clients. Probably a little bit hypothetical at this point, but maybe people are supposed to be under weight treasuries and T bills and way overweight whether it's commercial paper or corporations. That right, if you take a step back and talk about this as being governance, right, the US governance is offer right now in terms of our spending, in terms of we talk about not paying our bills. Right, you look at the large corporation's world. They have good corporate governance, they have global plans. They never once would ever even think about saying, oh, we're not going to pay our debt on time because we don't feel like it. So I think you're supposed to be starting to push really heavily to overweight high quality corporates, maybe in commercial paper, maybe some abs, and move really underweight T bills. So do you foresee a time when Apple can borrow at a lower rate than the US government? You know that ability to break the sovereign ceiling rarely happens, even in emerging markets. I don't think it happens here, but I do think you can see really tight spread compression, especially at the front end of the corporate bond curve. So I like that as a trade. Do you think we get convergence spread compression on governance issues alone? I think that will play a part of it. Yeah. I think the top quality companies have a ton of cash. The liquidity in the bond markets not what it once was, So whatever you have to pay up their own tea bills, maybe you don't. And I think this government issue is going to become a real thought again. If you think about it, why would you lend to someone who talks about not paying your debt because for a long time they've had the privilege of acting recklessly correct talked about this so many times there's been no consequence for it. Why is this time different. I think something we talked about before snapped in the market, and all of a sudden people are really questioning this whole you know, correlation or coalescence of events that have been on the back of everyone's mind. I don't think it cracks this time, certainly, but I think it starts setting us in stage again. I always go back to the Great Financial Crisis. It started breaking in two thousand and six, got fixed, broken in in two thousand and seven, got fixed, broken in in two thousand and seven, got fixed. So I feel now we've started this unwined and unless DC gets its act together, this is going to be Every time it rears its head, it'll get uglier. But it's not this year's story anymore. Pet love it always thoughtful Pitcher. There of academic securities. Lebby Cantrell joints Now managing director had a public policy a pinkel. You're the only one I can do this with. Can you take the election results and you can fold them into a government shutdown which happens in about three cups of coffee? Can you make that exercise happen? Yeah? Well, good morning, and thank you for not asking me a question about orgo. I did I take organic chemistry at school, so thanks thanks for testing me on that. Yeah, so I do think that the read through actually from last night, Tom So thanks thanks for a layup. Here is actually Democrats won a special election in Rhode Island. This was a is a blue race, a blue seat, this is a house seat. That means that they have two hundred and thirteen seats in the House. Republicans, however, only have two hundred and twenty one. They have a special election in Utah in a few weeks. The reason why this actually means this is important from a government shutdown perspective is that means practically that Republicans now can only lose three seats excuse me, three votes in order to pass a funding bill that they need a pass to avoid a shutdown by next Friday. So it just means that the margin of error is much more narrow for Republicans. Speaker Johnson was already needing to thread a needle, if you will, and that a needle point has just gotten even more narrow from the result from last night and threading the needle. What will moderate Republicans do? I don't have it in front of me, but I'm going to suggest on Long Island east of New York City, the Republicans had a good night. What are the moderate I guess the former president would say, Republicans in name only. How do they adapt an adjust off the selection? Yeah, I think that what we learned last night is that the abortion rights still very much resonate. That was obviously a takeaway from the twenty two, twenty twenty two midterms, where abortion really emboldened turnout. It shows last night that this really is very much an issue, especially when it is on the ballot. Now, I think for twenty twenty four, many of these folks, particularly in those districts Tom that you mentioned, where there are you know, Republicans who are defending Biden districts. The Democrats will make this an issue. You're going to hear a lot about abortion rights over the next year because of the results of last night, just sort of underscoring that this clearly is a resident voting issue for voters. So in terms of the government shutdown, what does that make those moderate Republicans do They are voting in lockstep here. They really are trying to give Speaker Johnson, you know, the benefit of the doubt. I think that will continue. I think the big question for markets is, though, is that enough can they actually avoid a shutdown If they pass a partisan bill, Tom, we will see a shutdown next Friday. So again kind of an open question of how this all resolves. But as of now, it looks like they are voting in a partisan way, which means that shutdown risk is you know, I think is increased over the last week or so. Do markets care though, I mean, as a shutdown basically, okay, they're going to do it for twenty four hours for effect and then we'll move on. Yeah, least, I think that's that's that's that's the real the real issue. If it is a temporary shutdown, no, this will just be more DC noise. If it's a longer, more prolonged shutdown, it does become I mean, the economic impacts of you know, lots of federal workers being furloughed not actually collecting a paycheck could matter. And also, you know, the data matters, right. If we don't get data from the Department of Labor, for instance, that makes the Fed's job, you know, a little bit a little bit harder. And we can also see, you know that this term premium that you all been talking about, we could see you know, some of the yields back up again as well on account of this. So I think you're right. If it's a short term shutdown, no, the markets probably don't care. If it's longer term, however, you know, it may it may weigh on you know. Again, I just sort of the confidence around sort of the political apparatus in Washington, d C. Just shifting from last night's elections to what we're expecting next year, a presidential election. How much of a certainty do you think that it is that we're going to President Biden versus former President Trump. How much will tonight's debate really color that discussion about potential other running candidates for the Republican Party in particular. Yeah, so, I think what we've been messaging to client Lisa is with high conviction President Biden will be the nominee for the Democratic Party. This idea that he is going to drop out, that Governor Newsom, for instance, may jump into the race, it just is not It's just not realistic at this point. Nor is there any indication from the Biden camp that he has any interest in dropping out or any intention of dropping out. So he will be the Democratic nominee again, you know, excluding or assuming there's no sort of exident health issue or what have you. On the Republican side, I President Trump obviously has an incredibly formidable lead in the polls, but this is actually a really important point. He his campaign is much more organized, i think by his own emission, than it was in twenty sixteen, and they have been systematic changing the delegate rules in the states in terms of how the state primaries allocate delegates to his benefit. So not only does he have this formidable lead in the polls, but he's also sort of changed the kind of the machinations behind the scenes in terms of how these delegates are allocated, and of course getting the nominations just a delegate game, So the fact that he's been changing these rules is to his benefit as well. So, I mean a lot would have to happen, I think tonight and over the next two months. Now. I think what we can show from even last night that voting behavior is the most important thing to look at and polls are not always right, and so particularly in Iowa and New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Those are the four the first contests, Lisa, and how we're guiding our clients is if Trump wins all of those, then he very likely is going to be the nominee. However, if there's somebody can test one of those that it could be easily become a two person race. But again sort of remains to be seen. In terms of tonight, it's really a race for number two DeSantis between and Haley. Yeah, I think we will see it be pretty pretty nasty and pretty ugly tonight. I'm looking forward to that debt a little bit. Nice Levie, thank you going to catch out you're one of the best. You're going to catch with a pimcot the vix at fourteen point eighty four. That is a Dana Ives market you, Senior Equity Research Channal web Bush. You refuses to talk to us when Apple learnings come out. We only get them to pick up the debris and we can tell for those of you on radio, you can understand these long Lily Pulitzer as well. This morning. Great, Look, Dan, I want to talk about your two forty call on Apple. You're not lonely. There's a few other people out there with dana Ives optimism on Apple. When I saw those margins and a company managing for profit not revenue growth, can you raise your two forty estimate? Yeah? Look, I think this is just the beginning of the next fees of the Apple store. You look at margins that are historical. You look what's happening on services now mid teen growth, and I despite the haters continuing to hate, is growing even when you take out currency and you it's even growing more asps the China iPhone demise story is a fictional Netflix story, and in my opinion, this is just the start of what I ultimately view is at three and a half to four trillion dollar market. So slow day, we got to make some news here. Can you pop from two forty up to two fifty this morning for us? Look, I believe that I believe are the best case or the bowld case is probably closer to to seventy five as this all plays out, because also now you don't have AI in those numbers. This is just the get out the popcorn moment for when Apple ultimately I believe, over the next year, introduces the AI app Store, and that's just going to be you know, ultimately from a services perspective, that could be an incremental five to ten fifteen millions. You made a couple of statements, so let's stroke down on them. We can do that. Your friends, you talked about growth at the iPhone. What growth are you talking about? So if you unit growth, units are growing into the December quarter, you also if you take out currency, which is a headwind, you have basically mid single digit growth. You've been talking about a massive boom of people upgrading. I guess my questions you dan to be polite about it. Have you been right for the wrong reasons on the stock to acknowledge that? I would say that ultimately, if you look at this, what I've used a mini supercycle that's playing out. The ASP stories played out, and I think our biggest call has been China. Despite many yelling fire in a crowd theater, the China growth is actually increasing, not decreasing. But they had a down quarter right in China. Well, if you look at China, Meanli in China was actually a record for the September quarter. When you look at the overall, you know, as Keen talks about the initial reaction after sure iPads, max that and three dollars get your cup of coffee, I'm focused on iPhones where units were up in China. Well, I'm struggling with that. And you'll appreciate this. If you came on today and say margins it better they are. I'm with you, Okay, Margins are great service revenues where the growth is that deserves a high multiple. I understand that maybe you can make the case for why the stock is high this year based on those things. When you say things like iPhone supercycles, when we've had no growth for four quarters in the company, that's where I struggle. Can you have the understanding this? So it's dissect that first. When you're thinking about the card five six hundred BIPs f X headwinds, that is actually underlying growth that you're seeing an iPhone units. Just to steady state it. I also believe our whole view of the iPhone cycle is really going to be over the next three, four or five quarters. That's where you're going to have these upgrades that actually come through. I'm not saying that you don't have some maybe share minor share of Watses on the sort of mid tier, but in terms of high end as a utility, this essentially is going to be a mid to high single digit growth on iPhone, and when you start to run that through, that could be an incremental one two three dollars earnings As you look out next two three years. There's a lot of growth already baked into valuation, and a big piece of valuation is where the buyers are going to come from. And you've been traveling around the world trying to hold everyone's hand and convince them that there is still value in big tech. How much do the losses of other areas of the tech like sphere and I'm thinking of Masioshi's Sun and the more than eleven billion dollars loss on we work. How much does that play into a little ambivalence about buying the story right now. Look, I think you're definitely having winners and losers in terms of this just broader economy, and I think in terms of the Magnificent seven. In terms of big tech, I think the strong gets stronger. But he said, to my point, you know, being an easier for a few weeks, and in Europe, you know, it's very easy to sit there here in New York on your tenth floor spreadsheet being negative on Apple. What I see out in the world is a much different environment in terms of the growth that happening. And I believe tech to your point, you're going to see the strong continuing to dominate. And I think in terms of AI, we are just in the early stages of monetization. I think that's a big thing in this tech ball market. Microsoft saw it in terms of AI, you're starting now see monization data dog that's a Hall of Fame quarter in terms of what we saw there, pallenteer the messy of AI, and I believe ultimately right now the AI gold rush is actually starting. That sounds lovely on that side. On the side of how much we're paying for price monetization and monetization of AI, am looking at Apple plus in sort of the amount that though that's increased, are we going to be paying six hundred dollars a month to Apple for all of our various services? Look, I think over in there, But to your point, I think over the next year or two, I think the average Apple user is going to start to definitely increase what they're paying Apple on the services because ultimately, as it goes out, the A I technology that's gonna be in fitness health in the app store, that's just going to give them just another added growth to the monization of Coupertino. And I think part of why the stocks reacted, you know, despite you know many I think being very negative initially, as it's come through, you know, to Pharaoh's point, iPhone, you're now starting to see grow services mid teen growth margins. This is just another you know, flex and muscles moment. And I think that's on a sum of the parts, how this is a stock that Ultimate is gonna be a four trillion dollar markup by twenty twenty five. Just picking up on penalty the messy of Ai. Why why are they the messy of Ais? Because I believe they are the pures play AI name in the market period. And and look, Palenteer is one where you know, many have been negative on that story for a number of different reasons. But I think what you're seeing now happen is that they've actually parlayd enterprise success and you're seeing the use cases explode. I believe Palteerman twenty five is are a base case, but that is the golden child of AIS. I'm gonna make some news any day now. Do I see another massive, mega billion dollar Apple debt offering. Look, I think that's something that you know clearly, you know could be on the table. I think the bigger thing for Apple is I think they're finally going to look at M and A, and we've talked about I think we got to extend the in They're gonna buy Disney by by the week. I believe ESPN is the asset that Ultimate by Okay, you but for that, I think thirty five to forty billion in terms of what bates transaction, but it could not beats three and a half billion. But also it goes back to the MLS deal that was I think where the light bulb went off in terms of live streaming sports. I think ESPN is a unique ass And look right now, you look at the top of this mound, it's Nodella, it's cook, you know, it's You're really starting to see ultimately more of an opportunity where they could go on the offensive ratherland defense. Okay, it's good to see you. Thank you, buddy Dennice of web Bush. It's joining us to talk about just how bad of a time this is for this to hit. Alexander Goldfarb, Senior Research and Analystic Piper Sandler. I want to start there, Alexander. There've been talks discussions around the number of leases that we work is going to abandon. Is the pressure on commercial real estate office space in particular in New York is it overstated right now or understated? Well, good morning Lisa and Tom, and thank you for having me on you know here at Piper Sandler. When we look at what is going on in office, it's it's eerily similar to what happened with malls. You know, over the past decade. If you recall, everyone pre pandemic thought every single mall going to close because everyone was going to shop online, and in fact what happened is the dominant malls like the Roosevelt Fields or Houston Gallerias continue to excel and lesser malls fall away. The same thing is with office. So if you look at we Work, which we don't cover we Work, but if you look at some of the fallout out in San Francisco, they rejected a bunch of leases. They did not reject one lease from Boston properties. When you look in San Francisco, when you look in New York, you know, companies like s Green Bornado have zero exposure now to WE Work because they exited those we Work leases over the past number of years, and even Boston properties only as one percent. So when you look at the fallout that's going to happen, and you look at the major reats and especially the ones that we cover here at Piper Sandler, the impact is negligible. And what's really interesting is when you look at office, especially here in New York, it's gravitating around Grand Central, and actually you're seeing rents increase on Park Avenue. So just like MAUL, the dominant office will survive the lesser the generic office. That's where the trouble is. So are you saying right now that the prices have baked in a lot of that trouble or that people just haven't been discerning enough to understand the winners versus the losers. Absolutely. If you speak to the brokerage community like Newmark, they are starting, They and Cushman and the other brokerage companies are starting to discern the difference between top tier versus generic, Class A, class B, etc. So when you look at what tenants want today, tenants want, you know, great space with a lot of amenities, convenient, convenient for commuters, and they want a landlord who has the capital wherewithal to invest in the properties. And let's face it, the brokers want to get paid a commission and you're seeing that fallout. It's no different than we've seen in retail. So again I use the mall example, Simon Property Group, you know with their billion dollars a year from task, so tenants know that they can be there the same as happening in reats with companies like sl Green. That's right where I wanted to go, Alexander, you are reading my mind. What is David Simon going to do with this folks? Simon Property Group Indianapolis three thousand employees. What is the guy from Indiana University can do? He's seen this before we come down. But my history is fresh money always comes in. When does the fresh money click in? If transaction to transaction, I'm down forty percent. Well, you are speaking David's mind. He loves cash flow. So since IPO, the company's paid out thirty nine billion in dividends, and the reason they've done that is by investing shrewdly. So when you look right now, he's very focused on investing in his malls. So apart from the Tallman acquisition, which was structured before the pandemic, he hasn't bought anything on the outside. His focus has been investing in the malls like out in Northgate and Sea out Of where they're converting it into a hockey arena, or Houston Gallera where they're adding office and apartments, etc. So that's where he's focused. But let's face it, given the challenges away from Simon. He can pick and choose. But if you look, he's making a ton of money out of his portfolio, which people forget is actually small. It's only one hundred and twenty malls and only two hundred or so domestic properties in total. So he's a large company but with a small powerhouse portfolio, right, Ben Alison, I got to make some headlines here. We're in the business and news, Alexander. There's blood on the streets. We see it in New York, and I get it. New York's its own little weird place, but there's all across the nation real estate blood on the streets. Are you saying your world of reats back to when you were at Lehman, your world of reads? Is it now a screaming by because of all the agony Lisa was just framing, So it's not a screaming buy in the sense that interest rates are high. Right, we have a tenure that was approaching five percent and it's now backed off a little. But certainly the financing market, which as you guys have reported, is basically shut down, right, CNBS market is tough. You walk into a bank and try to get a construction loan, they'll call the cops on you. They're like, we don't do that right now. Right, So lending is very tough. The transaction market is almost on ice because of the widespread what's interesting people missing? Tom, You're like my first boss at Liam and David Shulman. You've been around a number of decades. Real estate right now is benefiting from a phenomena that it has not had in a long long time, which is low supply because nothing new is getting built, and low vacancy. That combination is really powerful. And you started the show by saying, how is the credit going to get worked out? Again? As you as we've spoken before, back in the GFC, everyone was panicked about the CNBS. No one can tell you where the benchmark GG ten? What happened to that famous twenty two thousand and seven feel right, stuff gets worked out, Obviously there will be pain, there will be blood, for sure. But if you look at real estate's biggest benefit right now, it's that lack of supply and low vocacy. That's a huge positive that is underappreciated by the market. Just about thirty seconds. What happens if there's for selling, akin to re work, so we work is a tenant, so you don't really have force selling from that. But to be clear, banks where everyone's focused on, they're not in the business a running real estate, right. So as long as it's a good asset with a good sponsor, they're going to work out some deal. Because, as the old adage goes, a rolling loan collects no loss. That said, there's clearly going to be assets that will go back to the lenders. And those are the assets where the economics don't exist. That's the stuff to worry about. But the big properties like the three ninety nine Parks, the one Vanderbilts, those big centers or are going to be fine. And again, when you look at where the value in real estate is, it's a crewing at the top. But you're right there will be blood, and the blood it's going to be generic assets. Alexander Brilliant, Alexander Goldfire years of work at Piper Sandler now on real estate investment trust. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app. Tune in and the Bloomberg Business App. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keane, and this is BloombergSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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B. Riley's Dan Day describes Supply Side Platform (SSP), CTV + Magnite $MGNI thesis

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 27, 2023 71:31

Dan Day, CFA, Equity Research Analyst at B. Riley Securities, joins the podcast today to discuss the digital advertising business, SSPs and his thesis on Magnite, Inc. (NASDAQ: MGNI), the world's largest independent sell-side advertising company (according the company's website). To get in touch with Dan Day, you can reach him via email here: dday@brileyfin.com Chapters: [0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense [1:35] What is Magnite, Inc. (NASDAQ: MGNI) and why is it interesting to Dan [8:57] Take rate on SSP's (effectively the bear case on SSPs) [14:53] Adtech trends since early 2021 [19:11] Brand integrity - how much is that important amongst SSPs [20:25] $MGNI valuation upside [23:55] Programmatic recession vs. the stocks were overvalued in 2021 [25:48] CTV - what it means and how it works; why its important to $MGNI [29:24] Who is $MGNI working with on CTV / competitive landscape [32:55] $MGNI bear case on programmatic advertising - why don't publishers build out SSPs themselves? How are publishers thinking about building vs. buying SSPs? [44:25] Anything missed on the Bull or Bear case for $MGNI / stock compensation [50:07] Google antitrust case - what is the bull case for $MGNI [59:24] Odds that Google loses this trial and/or splits out SSP [1:03:58] One thing that market generalists miss regarding $MGNI [1:08:26] Channel checks on media industry Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you. But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/

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Career Insight: Equity Research Analyst explained

Market Maker

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 8, 2023 29:24

In the spirit of application season and making sure you apply to the right role for you, our latest podcast episode is a deep dive into the role of an equity research analyst.Where does Equity Research sit in an Investment Bank? How is the division structured in terms of teams/focus?What are the main tasks of an Equity Research Analyst?What are the key skills necessary to have success in this role?To help answer these questions, I'm joined by our very own Silvia Magni, a former equity research analyst at a tier 1 US investment bank.Free daily newsletter https://bit.ly/3Oeu4WkFree Finance Accelerator simulation https://bit.ly/3GoyV5rConnect with Anthony https://www.linkedin.com/in/anthonycheung10/Connect with Silvia https://shorturl.at/kIKW5 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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Revisiting ”MicroCaps” White Paper, International MicroCaps and Industrials/Tech/Consumer Sector Takes with Donald Porter, Portfolio Manager

Planet MicroCap Podcast | MicroCap Investing Strategies

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 5, 2023 36:41

My guest on the show today is Donald Porter, Portfolio Manager and most recently an Equity Research Analyst at Wellington Management. I am extremely grateful that I've had the opportunity to host this podcast for the last 8 years - I say this because, this sounds crazy to say, I last hosted Donald on the show in July 2016, when he was at DGHM to discuss his first white paper "MicroCaps Value Uncovered." We were reconnected by Doug Porter from Acuitas Investments (no relation by the way - thank you Doug), and it just so happens that Donald had updated his white paper on why MicroCap stocks still present a compelling investment opportunity in 2023. We chat about the current MicroCap environment, international MicroCaps, his quick takes on various sectors and more! Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by AlphaSense, an expert interview transcript library that integrates AI-generated call summaries and NLP search technology so their clients can quickly pinpoint the most critical insights. Start your FREE trial on their website: https://streamrg.co/PMC Planet MicroCap Podcast is on YouTube! All archived episodes and each new episode will be posted on the SNN Network YouTube channel. I've provided the link in the description if you'd like to subscribe. You'll also get the chance to watch all our Video Interviews with management teams, educational panels from the conference, as well as expert commentary from some familiar guests on the podcast. Subscribe here: http://bit.ly/1Q5Yfym Click here to rate and review the Planet MicroCap Podcast The Planet MicroCap Podcast is brought to you by SNN Incorporated, The Official MicroCap News Source, and the Planet MicroCap Review Magazine, the leading magazine in the MicroCap market. You can Follow the Planet MicroCap Podcast on Twitter @BobbyKKraft

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Episode 137: Is this the start of a full-throttle banking crisis?

The InvestmentNews Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 17, 2023 29:45

Episode Notes Bruce and Jeff are joined by Alexander Yokum, equity research analyst at CFRA, who provides context on what Silicon Valley Bank's problems mean for the immediate future of banking. He also talks about how First Republic, considered one of the least risky banks, got caught up in this, and whether or not we should be concerned for the banking industry as a whole. Guest Bio: Alexander Yokum is an Equity Research Analyst at CFRA. Alexander is primarily responsible for covering regional banks and diversified banks, including companies such as U.S. Bancorp, PNC, Truist and the largest six banks in Canada. Alexander also follows consumer finance names such as American Express and Capital One. Finally, he follows financial exchanges and data, which include names such as S&P Global, Moody's, CME and Nasdaq. Before joining CFRA in 2021, Alexander spent four years with IHS Markit. In that role, he advised CFOs and investor relations teams on strategic investor initiatives such as shareholder identification, conference and non-deal roadshow targeting, and activist defense. Alexander is a CFA charter holder and obtained his bachelor's degree in Business Administration from North Carolina State University, with a concentration in Finance, an honors in Data Analytics, and a minor in Statistics. He graduated summa cum laude. As one of the industry's largest and most experienced asset managers, we offer a focused lineup of competitively priced ETFs, mutual funds and separately managed account strategies designed to serve the central needs of most investors. By operating our business through clients' eyes, and putting them at the center of our decisions, we aim to deliver exceptional experiences to investors and the financial professionals who serve them.

Episode 213: Cathie Wood of ARK: Going to Back to the Future with AI

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 3, 2023 42:11

Cathie Wood is CEO of ARK Investment Management LLC (“ARK”). Prior to ARK, Cathie spent twelve years at AllianceBernstein as Chief Investment Officer of Global Thematic Strategies where she managed $5 billion. Cathie joined Alliance Capital from Tupelo Capital Management, a hedge fund she co-founded which, in 2000, where she managed $800 million in global thematic strategies. Prior to her tenure at Tupelo Capital, she worked for 18 years with Jennison Associates as Chief Economist, Equity Research Analyst, Portfolio Manager and Director. She started her career in Los Angeles, California at The Capital Group as an Assistant Economist. This was our second podcast recording together but the first for the Fiftyfaces Podcast. We started by tracing Cathie's upbringing and the fusion of innovation, entrepreneurship and travel that led to a peripatetic youth, including a spell in Ireland. We hear what drove her interest in finance and investing, and how she started her career. Our conversation moves then to the founding of ARK, and the almost spiritual reckoning that led to Cathie's decision to strike out on her own. We hear about her commitment to transparency and openness when it comes to research, and to the overarching importance of making their research open source. The team at ARK believes that this makes their process more robust, more resilient and adaptive, and they give the example of the evolution of their "autonomous cars" segment to embrace all of AI and how they have cross-checked some of their assumptions around growth in other sectors. Given how topical the subject is, we dive into a discussion about AI and its likely impact on the investment management industry. Cathie's thesis is an optimistic one, that should get the industry back to its original, forward-looking focus on themes and creativity. Finally we speak about pushback, criticism and debate that ARK and its theses have occasionally attracted. This podcast will be part of Series 5 of the 2023 Fiftyfaces Podcast which is kindly sponsored by With Intelligence, which has the mission of connecting investors and managers to the right people and data to raise and allocate assets effectively The music in this podcast series - provided by Julia Kwamya - is available on her album on Spotify: Feel Good about Feeling Bad https://open.spotify.com/album/7lTQWSHeaVo3xHuF9q8ilv?si=uvGJZX7FQ9-2wX-0e951ZA&nd=1

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Episode 213: Cathie Wood of ARK: Going to Back to the Future with AI

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 3, 2023 42:10

Cathie Wood is CEO of ARK Investment Management LLC (“ARK”). Prior to ARK, Cathie spent twelve years at AllianceBernstein as Chief Investment Officer of Global Thematic Strategies where she managed $5 billion. Cathie joined Alliance Capital from Tupelo Capital Management, a hedge fund she co-founded which, in 2000, where she managed $800 million in global thematic strategies. Prior to her tenure at Tupelo Capital, she worked for 18 years with Jennison Associates as Chief Economist, Equity Research Analyst, Portfolio Manager and Director. She started her career in Los Angeles, California at The Capital Group as an Assistant Economist. This was our second podcast recording together but the first for the Fiftyfaces Podcast. We started by tracing Cathie's upbringing and the fusion of innovation, entrepreneurship and travel that led to a peripatetic youth, including a spell in Ireland. We hear what drove her interest in finance and investing, and how she started her career. Our conversation moves then to the founding of ARK, and the almost spiritual reckoning that led to Cathie's decision to strike out on her own. We hear about her commitment to transparency and openness when it comes to research, and to the overarching importance of making their research open source. The team at ARK believes that this makes their process more robust, more resilient and adaptive, and they give the example of the evolution of their "autonomous cars" segment to embrace all of AI and how they have cross-checked some of their assumptions around growth in other sectors. Given how topical the subject is, we dive into a discussion about AI and its likely impact on the investment management industry. Cathie's thesis is an optimistic one, that should get the industry back to its original, forward-looking focus on themes and creativity. Finally we speak about pushback, criticism and debate that ARK and its theses have occasionally attracted. This podcast will be part of Series 5 of the 2023 Fiftyfaces Podcast which is kindly sponsored by With Intelligence, which has the mission of connecting investors and managers to the right people and data to raise and allocate assets effectively Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Surveillance: Bank Capital with PIMCO CEO

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Play Episode Listen Later Jun 6, 2023 36:49 Transcription Available

Emmanuel Roman, PIMCO CEO, says banks are going to be tight for capital. Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Chief Equity, Derivatives & Quant Strategist, says we're in a momentum market, raising his S&P target to 4,450. Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley Chief Cross Asset Strategist, says we haven't seen the full effect of rates. Dan Ives, Wedbush Sr. Equity Research Analyst, discusses Apple announcing its Vision Pro headset.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Minerals: The foundation of the energy transition

Lasting Values

Play Episode Listen Later May 31, 2023 24:32

As the world presses ahead with its net zero targets, there will be a huge increase in demand for green technologies. But the construction of these technologies requires the mining of significantly more minerals than we are mining today. Do we have enough critical minerals for the clean energy transition and how can they be mined in a sustainable way? Guests: Prof. Dr. Stephan Pfister, Institute of Environmental Engineering (https://ifu.ethz.ch/), Dr. Laura Sonter, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland (https://sees.uq.edu.au/), Dirk Hoozemans, Portfolio Manager at Credit Suisse, Jens Zimmermann, Equity Research Analyst at Credit Suisse Host: James Gifford, Head of Sustainable & Impact Advisory at Credit Suisse. Read more: Nature Communications: Renewable energy production will exacerbate mining threats to biodiversity https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17928-5, International Energy Agency: The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions

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Debt Ceiling, Retail, Noom, and Netflix (Podcast)

Play Episode Listen Later May 24, 2023 54:33

Audrey Childe-Freeman, Chief G10 FX Strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to discuss the FX and dollar implications of a debt ceiling default, and also discusses her note on the strength of the Swiss Franc. Duane Wright, Senior Government Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, also discusses the debt ceiling. Diana Rosero-Pena, Equity Research Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, and Brendan Case, Bloomberg News retail reporter, join to discuss the slew of recent retail news and Petco earnings today. Linda Anegawa, Chief of Medicine at Noom, joins the program to discuss the company's new health developments. Sam Fazeli, Senior Pharma Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins the discussion to offer some questions and analysis. Morgan Paxhia, co-founder of Poseidon Investment Management, joins the program in studio to talk about investing and the cannabis market. Geetha Ranganathan, Analyst of US Media with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins the program to discuss Netflix password sharing and outlook for the company's financials. Cam Harvey, Finance Professor at Duke University at co-author of DeFi & the Future of Finance,” joins the show to discuss the yield curve and the outlook for a hard landing and a recession. Hosted by Kriti Gupta and Simone Foxman.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Credit Crunch, M&A Deals, and Turkey's Election (Podcast)

Play Episode Listen Later May 15, 2023 62:40

Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence, and Amelia Pollard, reporter with Bloomberg News, discuss the effects of the credit crunch in the US and Europe. Nick Stadtmiller, Head of Product for Medley Global Advisors, joins the program to discuss emerging markets and how it's currently and will be impacted by the election in Turkey. Jen Rie, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Litigation Analyst, joins to discuss the Microsoft-Activision deal getting EU approval. Talon Custer, Equity Research Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to discuss the Oneok deal. Jacob Lorinc, North American Mining reporter with Bloomberg News, joins to discuss the Newmont deal. John Authers, columnist with Bloomberg Opinion, joins the program to discuss his column “Dollar's Bounce May Slam Into Debt Ceiling.” Jennifer Lee, Managing Director and Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets, joins us from Washington for the latest on central bank activity across the globe and outlook for a hard landing in the US. Jan Szilagyi, CEO and founder of Toggle AI, joins to discuss artificial intelligence and how the tech can be utilized. Hosted by Kriti Gupta, Sonali Basak, and Jennifer Ryan.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Activision CEO, First Republic, Earnings, and Stock Picks

Cash Flow Connections - Real Estate Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 27, 2023 52:02

Herman Chan, Senior Analyst; US Regional Banks & Fintech, joins to talk First Republic and outlook for regionals. Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Rates Analyst, also joins to discuss GDP. Mara Goldstein, Equity Analyst at Mizuho, joins to discuss Merck earnings. George Bory, chief investment strategist, fixed income with AllSpring Global Investments, joins the program to discuss fixed income investments in 2023 and what the bond market is telling us about a potential recession in 2023. Bloomberg Technology host Ed Ludlow interviews Activision CEO Bobby Kotick. Chris Ciolino, Equity Research Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to break down Caterpillar earnings. Bloomberg Opinion columnist Brooke Sutherland joins as well, in-studio, to discuss her recent columns and the overall state of the industrial sector. Brian Smoluch, Portfolio Manager at Hood River Capital, joins to discuss markets and gives his stock picks. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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E624 - TT - Macro Outlook and Current Trends in Net Lease Investing

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 4, 2023 33:14

In this Topical Tuesday's episode, I spoke with Harsh Hemnani who is an Equity Research Analyst at Green Street covering net lease properties. Be sure to tune in if you're interested in learning about: The most exciting new trends that are currently seen in the net lease investment space Strategic changes that net lease REITs are employing at the moment How private market investors can study REITs to get a leg up on their competition How cap rates differ across net lease properties based on property type and location How net lease properties are expected to perform in the future, based on different potential economic outcomes To your success, Tyler Lyons Resources mentioned in the episode: 1. Harsh Hemnani Website Interested in investing in ATMs? Check out our webinar. Please note that investing in private placement securities entails a high degree of risk, including illiquidity of the investment and loss of principal. Please refer to the subscription agreement for a discussion of risk factors. Tired of scrambling for capital? Check out our new FREE webinar - How to Ensure You Never Scramble for Capital Again (The 3 Capital-Raising Secrets). Click Here to register. CFC Podcast Facebook Group

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Banks, Supply Chain, Real Estate, and Pets

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Play Episode Listen Later Mar 27, 2023 57:05

Alison Williams, Senior Global Banks and Asset Managers Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to discuss the latest wall street and banking news. Lisa Knee, Real Estate lead at EisnerAmper, discusses the latest on real estate and mortgages amid banking and financial concerns. Diana Rosero-Pena, Equity Research Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, and Ann-Hunter van Kirk, Senior Equity Research Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, discuss their recent research on the $500 billion dollar pet economy. RJ Gallo, Senior Portfolio Manager with Federated Hermes, joins to discuss the bond market and what it tells us about a potential recession in 2023. Katerina Simonetti, Senior VP at Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management, joins the program to discuss sectors she likes and her outlook for the markets and inflation. Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of LA, joins the program to discuss the latest on the supply chain and shipping business. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Next Generation: China takes the driver's seat in the EV race

Beyond Markets

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 24, 2023 9:35

In China, one out of every four cars sold last year was electric. Globally, Chinese electric vehicle (EV) sales represented around 2/3 of total EV sales. What has sparked the phenomenal growth of EV sales in China? Which aspects of EVs make consumers prefer them over traditional vehicles? What are the latest developments in this space? Find out in this episode with Tom Chen, Head Investment Advisor Singapore, and Louis Lee, Equity Research Analyst at Julius Baer.

Banking on the Banks

Market Wrap with Moe - Business Financial Analysis on Investing, Stocks, Bonds, Personal Finance and Retirement Planning

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 22, 2023 44:29

With Alexander Yokum, Equity Research Analyst at CFRA Research

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The Investor's Guide to China: Tech Hardware and the ‘Chip War' (#20)

Fidelity Answers: The Investment Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 22, 2023 34:09

Chip shortages at the start of the Covid pandemic threw semiconductors into the limelight. More recently, chips have been the focus of trade tensions between China and the US. Now, as China reopens and supply chains adjust, how will the ‘Chip War' affect the future of the global tech hardware industry, and ultimately the prices of thousands of types of consumer goods? In this episode, Catherine Yeung, Investment Director, and Marty Dropkin, Head of Equities, Asia Pacific, are joined by Terence Tsai, Analyst and Portfolio Manager, and Tina Tian, Portfolio Manager, as they discuss China's evolving role in the global tech hardware supply chain, the effects of the ‘Chip War' with US, and what it all means for the economy and investors. With additional contributions from Miya Huang, Innovation Intelligence Lead in Dalian; Zaf Tiu, Research Associate in Singapore; Chandrasekhar Sridhar, Analyst & NDA in Mumbai; Vivian Pai, Fund Manager, Taipei; Jonathan Tseng, Equity Research Analyst, London; and Vivian Wang, Investment Analyst in Hong Kong. Read more at fidelityinternational.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Is this the start of a full-throttle banking crisis?

The InvestmentNews Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 20, 2023 29:45

Bruce and Jeff are joined by Alexander Yokum, equity research analyst at CFRA, who provides context on what Silicon Valley Bank's problems mean for the immediate future of banking. He also talks about how First Republic, considered one of the least risky banks, got caught up in this, and whether or not we should be concerned for the banking industry as a whole. Guest Bio:Alexander Yokum is an Equity Research Analyst at CFRA. Alexander is primarily responsible for covering regional banks and diversified banks, including companies such as U.S. Bancorp, PNC, Truist and the largest six banks in Canada. Alexander also follows consumer finance names such as American Express and Capital One. Finally, he follows financial exchanges and data, which include names such as S&P Global, Moody's, CME and Nasdaq.Before joining CFRA in 2021, Alexander spent four years with IHS Markit. In that role, he advised CFOs and investor relations teams on strategic investor initiatives such as shareholder identification, conference and non-deal roadshow targeting, and activist defense.Alexander is a CFA charter holder and obtained his bachelor's degree in Business Administration from North Carolina State University, with a concentration in Finance, an honors in Data Analytics, and a minor in Statistics. He graduated summa cum laude.

Tesla, Markets, Bitcoin, and Deere (Podcast)

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 17, 2023 44:23

Kevin Tynan, Senior Autos Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins the program to discuss recent Tesla news and AutoNation earnings. Omar Aguilar, CEO and CIO at Schwab Asset Management, joins the program to discuss sectors he likes and outlook for markets and the economy. Daragh Murphy, founder and CEO at IMPRINT, joins the program to discuss his company, Fintech, and outlook. Bloomberg cross asset reporter Katie Greifeld and Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Macro Strategist Mike McGlone give the latest on crypto regulation, Bitcoin moves, and the outlook for crypto regulation. Chris Ciolino, Equity Research Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins the program to discuss Deere earnings and outlook for industrials. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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17. Wedbush Equity Research Analyst - Seth Basham

Mike It Up

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 25, 2023 46:38

Seth Basham is in as good a position as anyone to see where the mattress industry is headed. As an equity research analyst for WedBush Securities, Basham covers all of the pure-play public mattress companies — like TSI, Sleep Number, and Purple — in addition to a number of other companies in big-ticket retail categories with similar industry dynamics. In this episode (recorded 12/16/22), Jeff and Mike get his thoughts on the state of the industry, the competitive landscape, pandemic hangover, tactics that are winning (and losing) in the marketplace, the outlook for 2023, the future of Mattress Firm, and more. Subscribe to "Mike It Up" here on YouTube and through your preferred podcast platform so you don't miss an episode: * SUBSCRIBE on Apple Podcasts HERE: http://bit.ly/mikeitup-apple * SUBSCRIBE on Spotify HERE: http://bitly.com/mikeitup-spotify * SUBSCRIBE on Google Podcasts HERE: http://bit.ly/mikeitup-google Follow GoodBed on LinkedIn for more discussion of "Mike It Up" content, or to leave questions or suggestions for future episodes, by going HERE: https://www.linkedin.com/company/goodbed Follow Mike on Twitter here: https://www.twitter.com/mdmagnuson And be sure to check out more episodes of Mike It Up on FAM.news, where you can also find more great content from the mattress industry: https://bit.ly/mike-it-up About the "Mike It Up" Podcast: Hosted by GoodBed.com's Mike Magnuson and Jeff Cassidy, "Mike It Up" delves into the most strategic issues facing mattress companies today, revealing actionable insights that can help retailers and manufacturers grow and protect their businesses. A key focus area is the rapidly changing consumer journey, leveraging both soft and hard data derived from GoodBed's unique vantage point sitting at the intersection of consumers, retailers, and manufacturers for the past 12+ years. More details here: http://www.mikeitup.com About GoodBed.com: GoodBed is an independent information resource that is trusted by millions of consumers to help them find and buy the right mattress. GoodBed provides shoppers with expert editorial coverage based on the mattress industry's most comprehensive product testing framework, powerful search tools like the GoodBed Quiz, and access to more than half a million unbiased consumer reviews. For retailers and manufacturers, GoodBed offers cost-effective opportunities to attract new customers and to enhance the online reputation of their products and stores by leveraging GoodBed's industry-leading independent review platform. More details here: https://www.goodbed.com

analysts purple fam basham mattress firm tsi sleep number wedbush securities wedbush equity research analyst apple podcasts here jeff cassidy

Credit Suisse, Crypto, Markets, and Deere (Podcast)

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 23, 2022 40:35

Alison Williams, Senior Global Banks and Asset Managers analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins the show to discuss the latest on Credit Suisse. Vince Cignarella, Global Macro Strategist with Bloomberg News, joins the show for his weekly hit to discuss the stock market and various economic data due out today ahead of the holiday. Katie Greifeld, cross asset reporter with Bloomberg News, joins the show to discuss the latest on FTX and crypto. Matt Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at Van Eck Associates, joins us in studio to discuss market conditions, outlook for the economy, and some of his latest research. Chris Ciolino, Equity Research Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins the show to breakdown Deere earnings. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

head crypto markets ftx credit suisse matt miller bloomberg news deere asset managers bloomberg intelligence equity research analyst alison williams paul sweeney katie greifeld

Credit Suisse, Markets, and Industrials (Podcast)