Podcasts about Fitch Ratings

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Best podcasts about Fitch Ratings

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Latest podcast episodes about Fitch Ratings

Credibly Challenged
Credibly Challenged Podcast - Interview with Megan Neuburger, Head of US Corporate Ratings at Fitch

Credibly Challenged

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 13, 2025 29:04


Matt Bisanz interviews Megan Neuburger, the head of US corporate ratings at Fitch Ratings. They discuss how an analyst develops corporate credit ratings and the many elements of that process that banks should understand.

Bitesize Business Breakfast Podcast
Is a Real Estate Correction Coming?

Bitesize Business Breakfast Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 11, 2025 33:19


11 Jun 2025. A new report from Fitch Ratings says a potential correction in the UAE real estate market - but does that match what we’re seeing on the ground? We speak to the man behind the report. Plus, Deyaar unveils plans for a new ultra-tall tower in Downtown Dubai. And Arada is launching Akala, the world’s first precision wellness destination - we hear from COO Amit Arora.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Noticentro
México se perfila a una recesión económica en 2025: Fitch Ratings

Noticentro

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 11, 2025 1:39


México espera respuesta de EU sobre aranceles a metales  No te pierdas la Caminata Botánica por el Volcán Tetlalmanche Corte argentina confirma sentencia contra la expresidenta Cristina Fernández

Hírstart Robot Podcast
Pride-megnyitó: "Amikor a kormány a Pride-ot támadja, a magyarok történelmét köpi szembe"

Hírstart Robot Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 7, 2025 3:49


Pride-megnyitó: "Amikor a kormány a Pride-ot támadja, a magyarok történelmét köpi szembe" Flörtbe fulladt az Ingatlanvadászok: Bogira ráhajtott az egyik vevő Azonnal reagált a Nemzetgazdasági Minisztérium a Fitch Ratings hitelminősítő ítéletére Női győzelem született Monacóban az Év Üzletembere döntőjében, ő most a világ legmeghatározóbb vállalkozója Minijuhok segítenek a levendulakert művelésében Befagytak az árak a kutakon, de mikor lesz olcsóbb a tankolás? Marco Rossi a vereség után: Nem igazán látok más problémát azon kívül, hogy nem tudunk gólt lőni Nem lesz meg Djokovics 25. GS-győzelme, de így is álomdöntő jön a Garroson Még tud hova fokozódni a hőség A további adásainkat keresd a podcast.hirstart.hu oldalunkon.

Hírstart Robot Podcast - Friss hírek
Pride-megnyitó: "Amikor a kormány a Pride-ot támadja, a magyarok történelmét köpi szembe"

Hírstart Robot Podcast - Friss hírek

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 7, 2025 3:49


Pride-megnyitó: "Amikor a kormány a Pride-ot támadja, a magyarok történelmét köpi szembe" Flörtbe fulladt az Ingatlanvadászok: Bogira ráhajtott az egyik vevő Azonnal reagált a Nemzetgazdasági Minisztérium a Fitch Ratings hitelminősítő ítéletére Női győzelem született Monacóban az Év Üzletembere döntőjében, ő most a világ legmeghatározóbb vállalkozója Minijuhok segítenek a levendulakert művelésében Befagytak az árak a kutakon, de mikor lesz olcsóbb a tankolás? Marco Rossi a vereség után: Nem igazán látok más problémát azon kívül, hogy nem tudunk gólt lőni Nem lesz meg Djokovics 25. GS-győzelme, de így is álomdöntő jön a Garroson Még tud hova fokozódni a hőség A további adásainkat keresd a podcast.hirstart.hu oldalunkon.

MOCTICAST

⬇️⬇️⬇️En este episodio de Las Claves de la Mañana abordamos la entrada en vigor de la veda electoral para las elecciones extraordinarias del Poder Judicial de la Federación y su impacto en la ciudadanía. Conversamos con Noemí Luna Ayala, vicecoordinadora del PAN en la Cámara de Diputados, quien reitera la falta de legitimidad del proceso y denuncia irregularidades. Además, analizamos la postura de Rubén Moreira, coordinador del PRI, quien anunció su abstención como manifestación política ante la reforma judicial impulsada por Morena.En materia empresarial, revisamos el diálogo reanudado entre la CNTE y el Gobierno federal para atender el paro magisterial, así como las críticas a la reforma de telecomunicaciones que enfrenta el Congreso. Fitch Ratings prevé estabilidad en el sector telecomunicaciones, impulsada por mayor demanda y expansión de servicios digitales.En temas económicos, destacamos que la tasa de desempleo se mantiene en 2.5% en el primer trimestre de 2025, mientras que Banxico advierte que un posible impuesto podría afectar las remesas. Además, reportamos que el INE enfrentó 820 amparos en el actual proceso electoral, subrayando los retos para proteger la autonomía del instituto.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ya puedes encontrar aquí el link a todas mis redes sociales.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Wintrust Business Lunch
Wintrust Business Minute: Financial outlook for Chicago is now negative, per Fitch Ratings

Wintrust Business Lunch

Play Episode Listen Later May 28, 2025


Steve Grzanich has the business news of the day with the Wintrust Business Minute. The financial outlook for the City of Chicago has been changed to negative by Fitch Ratings. In its revision, Fitch says there’s been a lack of meaningful progress in closing a nearly $1 billion structural budget gap. The agency has suggested […]

Production Value Matters: The Business Event Podcast
Not All Leads Are Equal: The KPI You're Missing with Francois Fournier from DTN

Production Value Matters: The Business Event Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 27, 2025 31:15


What if your best event ROI isn't in the lead list, but in a breakfast conversation?Event leaders today face an overwhelming challenge: prove event value, defend the budget, and deliver real business impact, all while expectations rise and resources shrink. If you're still measuring success by foot traffic or lead scans, this episode will change the way you think.In this episode of Production Value Matters, host Matthew Byrne chats with Francois Fournier, Head of Global Events at DTN, about how to move beyond vanity metrics and truly prove event ROI. With 20+ years in the industry and a portfolio of 75+ trade shows annually, Francois breaks down how DTN uses payback ratios, qualified business conversations, and strategic data collection to tie event spend directly to business outcomes. Whether you're producing incentives or pushing pipeline, this is an ROI masterclass every event pro needs to hear.In this episode, you'll learn:Why Qualified Business Conversations beat lead count every timeHow to use a 10:1 Payback Ratio to prove event valueA practical way to visualize event performance using the BCG MatrixHow to evaluate incentive programs through cultural metrics like retention and referralsWhat goes into a post-event report that your CFO will actually readHow to turn your team into a strategic resource, not just logistics supportFrancois Fournier is the Head of Global Events at DTN, a data and technology company supporting industries like energy, agriculture, and weather. With over 20 years of experience in corporate B2B events across financial services, SaaS, and technology, Francois has led global event strategies for major organizations including Fitch Ratings and Assurant. He is a Certified Exhibit Manager (CEM) and Certified Trade Show Marketer (CTSM) at the Gold level, and is known for building measurement-driven programs that drive awareness, convert demand, and prove business value on a global scale.If you enjoyed this episode, make sure to subscribe, rate, and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.Connect with Francois Fournier on LinkedInConnect with Matthew Byrne on LinkedInFor additional resources for #eventprofs visit www.productionvaluematters.comFor additional resources for #eventprofs visit www.productionvaluematters.comCheck out our 3 most downloaded episodes:Measuring Value in Your Events: Insights from Jodi CollenEducating Clients and Managing Expectations in Event Production with Fransiska WeckesserThe Intersection of Event Planning and Psychology with Victoria Matey Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Fixed Interests
Listen and Subscribe to Fitch Ratings Fixed Interests Podcast

Fixed Interests

Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2025 1:01


From global macroeconomic trends to sovereign credit developments to regulatory and political changes, Fitch's Fixed Interests podcast delivers the analyst insights and updates you need to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving market. Available wherever you get your podcasts.

Business Now with Ross Greenwood
Business Now | 12 May

Business Now with Ross Greenwood

Play Episode Listen Later May 12, 2025 21:38 Transcription Available


Independent Economist Warren Hogan previews a big week of macro data ahead of the RBA's meeting, Fitch Ratings says Labor's win strengthens its case for reform. Plus, as Woolworths announces big discounts, we reveal who'll pay for them.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Optimal Finance Daily
3137: Preferred vs Common Stocks: How Do They Differ by Amy Blacklock and Vicki Cook with Women Who Money

Optimal Finance Daily

Play Episode Listen Later May 10, 2025 13:59


Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3137: Amy Blacklock and Vicki Cook explain the key differences between common and preferred stocks, offering clarity on how each type fits distinct investment goals. While common stocks offer growth and voting rights, preferred stocks provide consistent income and greater claim to assets, making it crucial to align your choice with your financial strategy. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://womenwhomoney.com/preferred-vs-common-stock/ Quotes to ponder: "A share of common stock represents one share of ownership in the underlying corporation." "The dividend yield can be calculated by simply dividing the dollar value of the dividend by the current stock price, times 100 for the percentage." "Preferred stockholders get preference over common stock shareholders during distribution of profits or corporate liquidation of funds." Episode references: Standard & Poor's: https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/ Moody's: https://www.moodys.com/ Fitch Ratings: https://www.fitchratings.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Optimal Finance Daily - ARCHIVE 1 - Episodes 1-300 ONLY
3137: Preferred vs Common Stocks: How Do They Differ by Amy Blacklock and Vicki Cook with Women Who Money

Optimal Finance Daily - ARCHIVE 1 - Episodes 1-300 ONLY

Play Episode Listen Later May 10, 2025 13:59


Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3137: Amy Blacklock and Vicki Cook explain the key differences between common and preferred stocks, offering clarity on how each type fits distinct investment goals. While common stocks offer growth and voting rights, preferred stocks provide consistent income and greater claim to assets, making it crucial to align your choice with your financial strategy. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://womenwhomoney.com/preferred-vs-common-stock/ Quotes to ponder: "A share of common stock represents one share of ownership in the underlying corporation." "The dividend yield can be calculated by simply dividing the dollar value of the dividend by the current stock price, times 100 for the percentage." "Preferred stockholders get preference over common stock shareholders during distribution of profits or corporate liquidation of funds." Episode references: Standard & Poor's: https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/ Moody's: https://www.moodys.com/ Fitch Ratings: https://www.fitchratings.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Optimal Finance Daily - ARCHIVE 2 - Episodes 301-600 ONLY
3137: Preferred vs Common Stocks: How Do They Differ by Amy Blacklock and Vicki Cook with Women Who Money

Optimal Finance Daily - ARCHIVE 2 - Episodes 301-600 ONLY

Play Episode Listen Later May 10, 2025 13:59


Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3137: Amy Blacklock and Vicki Cook explain the key differences between common and preferred stocks, offering clarity on how each type fits distinct investment goals. While common stocks offer growth and voting rights, preferred stocks provide consistent income and greater claim to assets, making it crucial to align your choice with your financial strategy. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://womenwhomoney.com/preferred-vs-common-stock/ Quotes to ponder: "A share of common stock represents one share of ownership in the underlying corporation." "The dividend yield can be calculated by simply dividing the dollar value of the dividend by the current stock price, times 100 for the percentage." "Preferred stockholders get preference over common stock shareholders during distribution of profits or corporate liquidation of funds." Episode references: Standard & Poor's: https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/ Moody's: https://www.moodys.com/ Fitch Ratings: https://www.fitchratings.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

China Perspectives
Managing Risks from LGFVs and Local Government Debt Outlook

China Perspectives

Play Episode Listen Later May 8, 2025 12:05


Harry Hu, Senior Director at Fitch Ratings, discusses China's recent efforts to manage LGFV risks, including LGFV reclassification and debt substitution plans, along with local government debt trends.(00:00) - Introduction (01:30) - LGFV Debt Control Measures (03:07) - LGFV Reclassification (04:59) - LGFV Debt Substitution Plan (06:55) - Outlook for Special Purpose Bonds (09:34) - Local Government Interest Burdens (11:14) - Conclusion

Economía Pesada
Grave, pero estable la economía mexicana

Economía Pesada

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 21, 2025 17:44


México tuvo esta semana la oportunidad de que la calificadora Fitch Ratings le pusiera a su economía una perspectiva de "estable", pese a los riesgos fiscales asociados con bajos niveles de ingresos y los apoyos de Pemex.Sin embargo, la calificadora destaca que el peligro al que se enfrenta el país tiene que ver con el bajo crecimiento económico, la debilidad en la gobernanza, los retos fiscales y la deuda petrolera mexicana.Visita la sección de Finanzas de El Sol de México para estar al día del contexto económico. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

MOCTICAST

⬇️⬇️⬇️El INE concluyó la impresión de boletas para las elecciones del 1 de junio, aunque enfrenta retrasos en materiales logísticos clave como urnas y mamparas. El TEPJF avaló la candidatura de Job Daniel Wong, vinculado a La Luz del Mundo. Fitch Ratings mantuvo la calificación crediticia de México en “BBB-” con perspectiva estable, aunque advierte menor crecimiento y presiones por Pemex. Además, Tomás Yarrington fue vinculado a proceso por delitos federales, se canceló la audiencia de Rafael Caro Quintero en EE.UU., y Chiapas reanudó exportaciones de café. También presentamos una conversación con Anabel Caraveo sobre la 18ª Carrera Nacional por la Salud. Escucha el análisis político, económico y social en Las Claves de la Mañana.Palabras clave SEO: elecciones 2025 México, boletas INE, calificación Fitch México, TEPJF La Luz del Mundo, proceso Tomás Yarrington, audiencia Caro Quintero, exportaciones café Chiapas, análisis político México⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ya puedes encontrar aquí el link a todas mis redes sociales.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Compound Insights
Federico Barriga-Salazar: Where are EU Sovereign Budgets Headed if They Raise Their Defense Spending?

Compound Insights

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 14, 2025 18:31


Cut through the hype on the topic with Federico Barriga-Salazar of Fitch Ratings

Al Ahly Pharos
Pre-Trading Thoughts

Al Ahly Pharos

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 13, 2025 3:35


Monthly urban headline CPI inflation recorded 1.6% in March 2025 compared to 1.4% in February. On an annual basis, urban inflation recorded 13.6% compared to 12.8% in February. Egypt's Fuel Automatic Pricing Committee raised on Friday prices of gasoline and diesel by EGP2, but kept diesel fuel supplied to electricity, food industries, and vehicle gas unchanged.Fitch Ratings affirmed Egypt's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B' with a Stable Outlook. S&P Global Ratings revised Egypt's outlook to stable from positive and maintained its B-/B rating for Egypt's long- and short-term local and foreign currency debt. The MPC is scheduled to meet on Thursday to decide on interest rates. We believe the current scene might induce the CBE to act conservatively with a moderate easing, given the uncertainties sweeping global markets triggered by Trump's trade war in addition to persistent geopolitical risks. Despite the pick-up in inflation reading for March and given the decline in core inflation rate, and also taking into account the current uncertainties, we still believe the CBE has the room to ease by up to 200 bps in its upcoming meeting on 17 April 2025.The Madbouly government has plans to set up two integrated textile industrial zones in Minya and Fayoum at a total cost of EGP27 billion.Private companies accounted for 72% of Egypt's wheat imports in 1Q25, while the government secured the remaining 28%. Total interbank market transactions surpassed the USD3.5 billion mark last week, a significant jump from the USD750 million-1.2 billion the market usually sees changing hands each week. Egyptian National Railways signed three contracts worth over USD235 million with US-based Progress Rail to upgrade and maintain parts of the country's locomotive fleet. Some 100 Saudi investors and members of the Saudi-Egyptian Business Council led by the Federation of Saudi Chambers landed in Cairo yesterday to kick off a visit aimed at deepening investment ties between the Kingdom and Egypt.Egypt is set to officially join the EU's research and innovation funding program Horizon Europe in November. The British Ambassador to Egypt said that his country is currently studying a trade agreement with Egypt aimed at reducing customs duties on some products imported by Cairo from Britain, in exchange for the export of Egyptian agricultural crops such as grapes and strawberries to the United Kingdom.Italian company Eni has begun negotiations with global entities, led by Baker Hughes, to implement a plan to drill two new wells in the Zohr field in the Mediterranean Sea, with estimated investments ranging between USD300 million and USD400 million.Data from the CBE revealed that the Ministry of Finance sold on Thursday approximately EGP116.5 billion in six-month and one-year T-bills, surpassing the targeted EGP75 billion in liquidity. The European Union has reduced the initial anti-dumping duty applied to hot-rolled flat steel products from Egypt to 12.8% from the 15.6% it proposed late last month.DOMT's general assembly approved cash dividends distribution of EGP0.85/share for FY24, implying payout ratio of 47.9% and dividend yield of 3.6%. Dividends will be distributed in May 2025.

Mercado Abierto
Análisis de la sesión en el mercado de deuda

Mercado Abierto

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 4, 2025 5:48


Hacemos balance de la semana en el mercado de Renta Fija pasando por Fitch Ratings y la reacción de China a los aranceles de Trump. Con Ramón Zárate, socio-director de Zarate EAF.

Mercado Abierto
Análisis de la sesión en el mercado de deuda

Mercado Abierto

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 4, 2025 5:48


Hacemos balance de la semana en el mercado de Renta Fija pasando por Fitch Ratings y la reacción de China a los aranceles de Trump. Con Ramón Zárate, socio-director de Zarate EAF.

MONEY FM 89.3 - Prime Time with Howie Lim, Bernard Lim & Finance Presenter JP Ong
Wealth Tracker: If the trade war drags on, which APAC markets stand to suffer more?

MONEY FM 89.3 - Prime Time with Howie Lim, Bernard Lim & Finance Presenter JP Ong

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 4, 2025 11:20


The new US administration has started a global trade war that will reduce US and world growth, push up US inflation and delay Federal Reserve rate cuts. That’s according to Fitch Ratings. But what does this mean for the APAC region and their economy? Which APAC markets stand to suffer more, if the trade war drags on? On Wealth Tracker, Hongbin Jeong speaks to Alex Muscatelli, Director in the Economics Team at Fitch Ratings, to find out more. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China Perspectives
Impact of US tariffs on China's commodity sectors

China Perspectives

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 3, 2025 13:08


Laura Zhai, Senior Director at Fitch Ratings, discusses the impact of US tariff hikes on China's commodity sectors.(00:00) - Introduction (00:41) - Impact on aluminum and copper (04:43) - Impact on steel (07:33) - Impact on chemicals (10:28) - China's energy import cost

Web3 with Sam Kamani
238: The AI-Agent Economy: Matt Wright from Gaia on Open-Source Intelligence

Web3 with Sam Kamani

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 25, 2025 37:11


In this episode, recorded live from New York during the Digital Asset Summit, Sam sits down with Matt Wright — founder of Gaia and partner at EVM Capital.Matt has been building at the frontier of developer ecosystems, decentralized tech, and now AI agents. He walks us through his journey from organizing global hackathons to JP Morgan and ConsenSys, and finally to Gaia — a decentralized inference network for AI agents.We discuss how AI agents are about to become the dominant users of the internet, why the current stack is overly reliant on centralized providers like OpenAI, and how Gaia empowers developers to run their own sovereign LLMs with zero data leakage. Matt also breaks down Gaia's unique domain system, monetizing knowledge bases, and how Web3 primitives (like tokens, wallets, and identity) make agent coordination actually work.If you're curious about the intersection of AI and blockchain, and what the future of work might look like in an agent-native world, this is an episode you don't want to miss.Key Timestamps[00:00:00] Introduction: Sam introduces the episode, live from New York at the Digital Asset Summit, featuring Matt Wright from Gaia. [00:01:00] Matt's Background: From AngelHack to JP Morgan to ConsenSys, Matt shares how his journey led to building Gaia. [00:02:00] Developer Culture: Matt contrasts how developers in Asia and the West ship products—and how Gaia merges both. [00:05:00] Enter Gaia: The idea behind Gaia, born at the intersection of decentralized AI and blockchain. [00:08:00] AI Agents: Why the future of apps is agentic, and what most people don't yet understand about AI agents[00:11:00] Gaia Nodes: How Gaia enables anyone to own, host, and serve AI models without relying on centralized APIs. [00:14:00] Enterprise Data: Why 80% of the world's useful data lives off-chain—and how Gaia helps unlock it. [00:17:00] Current Use Cases: Matt shares examples from DeFi, Fitch Ratings, and other niche knowledge bases powered by Gaia. [00:20:00] Monetizing Knowledge: Gaia's domain system and how developers can turn knowledge into APIs for agents to query. [00:22:00] Challenges with Agents: The three major problems—hallucination, agentic complexity, and trust—and how Web3 solves them. [00:25:00] Web3 + AI Synergy: Why reputation, wallets, and governance unlock a new kind of agent-native internet.[00:28:00] Future of Agents: Speculating on where agent economies are heading—citizenship, sovereignty, and governance. [00:31:00] Day 1 of the AI Internet: Why agents will dominate the internet before they ever walk like humans. [00:34:00] Gaia's Ask: Gaia is live and open-source. Matt shares how developers can deploy nodes, build on top, and collaborate. [00:36:00] Wrap-Up: Sam closes the conversation and shares where listeners can connect and get involved with Gaia.Connecthttps://www.gaianet.ai/https://x.com/Gaianet_AIhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/matthewdavidwright/https://x.com/mateo_venturesDisclaimerNothing mentioned in this podcast is investment advice and please do your own research. Finally, it would mean a lot if you can leave a review of this podcast on Apple Podcasts or Spotify and share this podcast with a friend.Be a guest on the podcast or contact us - https://www.web3pod.xyz/

NewsWare‘s Trade Talk
NewsWare's Trade Talk: Wednesday, March 19

NewsWare‘s Trade Talk

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 19, 2025 20:23


S&P Futures are trending higher this morning as the market prepares for this afternoon announcement on monetary policy from the Fed. No changes in rates or Dot Plot expectations are likely. President Trump's pending tariff action remains a key pending factor for the economy which Fed Chairman Powell will likely avoid commenting on during his press conference. President Trump is scheduled to meet with top U.S. oil executives today to discuss boosting domestic energy production. ADSK is higher as Starboard Value is expected to launch a proxy fight. Fitch Ratings lowered its outlook on global growth & raised its inflation expectations for the U.S. SIG is higher after its earnings release this morning. After the bell today, FIVE will report and tomorrow morning ACN, DRI, FDS & JBL are scheduled to report.

Noticentro
Fitch Ratings recorta al 0% el crecimiento económico de México en 2025 

Noticentro

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 18, 2025 1:33


Economía se puede desacelerar con los aranceles de EU: Marcelo Ebrard Ya han sido instaladas 245 casillas especiales para la elección del 1 de junio EU sanciona a líder de una red mexicana de tráfico de personas 

IMPACTO ECONÓMICO
Evaluación de la Ejecución Presupuestaria al Cierre de Febrero 2025

IMPACTO ECONÓMICO

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 14, 2025 60:21


La emisión incluyó un análisis exhaustivo de las opiniones de Fitch Ratings sobre el riesgo fiscal en la programación presupuestaria de 2025. Además, abordamos en detalle la ejecución presupuestaria durante los dos primeros meses del año, con énfasis en el cumplimiento de los pagos de Colombia al sistema financiero internacional.

America's Truckin' Network
America's Truckin' Network -- 3-13-25

America's Truckin' Network

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 13, 2025 43:46 Transcription Available


The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the February Consumer Price Index, Kevin has the details, digs into the data and offers his insights. Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin offers his opinion on what is happening in the stock market and the economy's direction. Fitch Ratings reports on the percentage of late car payments, Kevin puts this into perspective. Oil reacts to tighter-than-expected oil and fuel inventories, a weaker U.S. dollar, cooling inflation, tariff uncertainty, and OPEC, which sticks to global oil demand forecasters.

700 WLW On-Demand
America's Truckin' Network -- 3-13-25

700 WLW On-Demand

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 13, 2025 46:51


The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the February Consumer Price Index, Kevin has the details, digs into the data and offers his insights. Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin offers his opinion on what is happening in the stock market and the economy's direction. Fitch Ratings reports on the percentage of late car payments, Kevin puts this into perspective. Oil reacts to tighter-than-expected oil and fuel inventories, a weaker U.S. dollar, cooling inflation, tariff uncertainty, and OPEC, which sticks to global oil demand forecasters.

Marketplace All-in-One
More Americans are falling behind on car loans

Marketplace All-in-One

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 7, 2025 9:15


This week, Fitch Ratings found that 6.5% of subprime borrowers were at least two months late on their car payments. That's the highest level since the agency began collecting this data in 1994. Other data finds that auto loan delinquency rates increased in 2024 across all income levels. What’s behind all this? Plus, tariffs already being felt across the economy. And later, a vintage race car mechanic reflects on the sights, sounds and feelings of racing.

Marketplace Morning Report
More Americans are falling behind on car loans

Marketplace Morning Report

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 7, 2025 9:15


This week, Fitch Ratings found that 6.5% of subprime borrowers were at least two months late on their car payments. That's the highest level since the agency began collecting this data in 1994. Other data finds that auto loan delinquency rates increased in 2024 across all income levels. What’s behind all this? Plus, tariffs already being felt across the economy. And later, a vintage race car mechanic reflects on the sights, sounds and feelings of racing.

Aujourd'hui l'économie
L'Europe se réarme, le secteur de la défense se frotte les mains

Aujourd'hui l'économie

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 5, 2025 3:03


L'Union européenne veut se réarmer face au désengagement américain dans le dossier ukrainien. Ce grand projet présenté par la Commission doit mobiliser près de 800 milliards d'euros pour la défense du continent. Une annonce qui fait les affaires du secteur. Décryptage.  La tendance est claire et nette. Depuis le début de l'année, le cours boursier des industriels militaires européens ne cesse d'augmenter. Rheinmetall, le géant allemand de la défense, a vu ses actions bondir de plus de 52%. Dynamique également à la hausse pour l'Italien Leonardo : +38%, ou encore le Français Thales à hauteur de 35%. Voilà pour ne citer qu'eux. Et si les investisseurs ont autant confiance dans ces entreprises, c'est parce qu'elles devraient, selon toute vraisemblance, crouler sous les commandes dans les prochains mois. La Commission européenne entend mobiliser 800 milliards d'euros pour sa défense dont 150 immédiatement sous forme de prêt commun. Sont concernés la défense anti-aérienne, les missiles, les systèmes anti-drones ou encore l'artillerie. Des secteurs auxquels on pense évidemment quand on parle défense militaire, mais il y a aussi tout un tas d'entreprises auxquelles on ne pense pas qui sont essentielles à la fabrication de tels engins. Difficile de ne pas évoquer les sous-traitants, comme ceux qui fabriquent tout simplement des écrous, des boulons ou des composants électroniques. À lire aussiEmmanuel Macron tente de vendre la dissuasion nucléaire aux EuropéensFaire tourner l'industrie européenne Si on prend du recul, on peut sans honte se dire que cette initiative peut relancer l'industrie européenne. Car on l'a souvent démontré, elle est en difficulté. Pourtant, difficile d'être si catégorique. C'est vrai que l'activité du secteur européen est dopée par la hausse des dépenses militaires qui a suivi l'invasion de l'Ukraine par la Russie. Cela devrait d'ailleurs l'être encore plus dans les prochains mois, c'est d'ailleurs ce que précise un rapport publié par le cabinet McKinsey. Mais il faut tout de même préciser que les clients de ces grands industriels, ceux qui vendent des avions, des missiles, des systèmes perfectionnés, ce sont les États. Et que les contrats signés sont des contrats de long terme de plusieurs milliards d'euros. Donc sur cet aspect, c'est de bon augure pour l'industrie militaire européenne.À lire aussiAllemagne: Friedrich Merz veut débloquer des investissements sans précédent pour renforcer son armée Équilibre à trouver Le problème, c'est qu'il va falloir trouver de l'argent. Parce qu'à budget égal, si les dépenses de défense augmentent, il va bien falloir trouver de l'argent ailleurs pour équilibrer les comptes. C'est le principe des vases communicants. L'agence de notation Fitch Ratings met d'ailleurs en garde ce phénomène, car cela va augmenter la dette des pays membres de l'UE. Or, certains comme la France sont déjà concernés par un niveau d'endettement pointé du doigt par la Commission européenne. Autre option que l'exécutif européen compte privilégier : assouplir les règles budgétaires des 27 européens pour permettre des dépenses de défense plus importantes sans toucher aux autres dépenses. Concrètement, la Commission pourrait accepter un déficit plus important. L'Europe semble ainsi changer de doctrine. Il faut à présent que les 27 parlent d'une seule et même voix pour avancer sur ce chemin voulu par Bruxelles ! À lire aussiGrand invité international: Général Christophe Gomart: «J'appelle au réveil de la défense européenne»

Special Briefing
Special Briefing: The New Administration's First Month

Special Briefing

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 28, 2025 54:20


The first Special Briefing of 2025 offers a deep dive into the new President's first month and the implications of new policies. Featured speakers include former US Representative Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-GA); Jeffrey Holland, Vice President, Research, Peter G. Peterson Foundation; Eric Kim, Senior Director, U.S. Public Finance at Fitch Ratings; Vikram Rai, Fixed Income Strategist, Head of Municipal Markets Strategy at Wells Fargo; Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist at Apollo; and Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody's Economics. Notable Quotes: “The implications from a macro perspective could become very, very important for interest rates, especially, of course, if the layoffs begin to show up in the form of a high unemployment rate.” - Torsten Slok. “State and local governments really need to take this moment to do an assessment of how the federal government, federal spending and federal tax policy, even the economic impacts, will affect their budget." - Carolyn Bourdeaux. “So why does that matter? Well, high and rising debts crowd out savings and investment, which could lower future output and income relative to what would otherwise occur." - Jeffrey Holland “Midwestern state economies could be particularly vulnerable to the imposition of blanket tariffs on imports from [Canada, Mexico, and China], and natural resource-rich states could face the most direct consequences from retaliatory tariffs by those nations. North Dakota, Louisiana, and Texas are the states with the most in exports to Canada, Mexico, and China as a percentage of their state GDP.” - Eric Kim “State and local governments realize that they have to rely on their own sources to meet their projects and financing needs." - Vikram Rai “The risks are decidedly to higher interest rates. The biggest risk is that we see a major sell-off in the bond market. The bond market feels incredibly fragile.” - Mark Zandi Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig
Kopi Time E148 - Private Credit with Fitch's Meghan Neenan

Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 26, 2025 33:58 Transcription Available


We dive into the rapidly growing world of private credit. Meghan Neenan, managing director and the North America head of Non-Bank Financial Institutions at FitchRatings, walks us through the sector’s genesis, scale, depth, structure, participants, transparency of reporting, and regulatory dimension. What are the vulnerabilities around the economic cycle? Are there financial stability risks? What are the newest trends, from the spread of retail offerings to blended structures? Is this an inflection moment for private credit, as it jumps toward ubiquity? Meghan is clearly constructive.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Corporate Treasury 101
Inside the World of Credit Ratings with Alex Griffiths from Fitch Ratings

Corporate Treasury 101

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 26, 2025 75:33


In this episode of Corporate Treasury 101, we explore credit ratings and their impact on corporate finance with Alex Griffiths from Fitch Ratings. He explains how treasurers can manage credit risk, navigate inflation, and improve their company's rating. We also discuss the growing role of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) factors in financial decision-making. Alex Griffiths is a seasoned financial expert leading corporate ratings at Fitch Ratings, one of the top three credit rating agencies globally. With deep experience in credit risk assessment, he provides insights into how companies are rated, the role of corporate treasury in securing a strong credit rating, and how ESG considerations are reshaping financial markets.What You'll Learn in This EpisodeHow credit ratings are determined and why they matter for companies and investorsThe role of corporate treasury in managing and improving credit ratingsHow interest rates and inflation impact corporate credit riskThe challenges of integrating ESG factors into credit ratingsHow companies can proactively manage their credit standing in a volatile marketEpisode Breakdown with Timestamps[00:00:00] Introduction[00:02:49] What is a Credit Rating?[00:06:24] Why Credit Rating Matters for Companies[00:11:03] How Fitch Assigns Credit Ratings[00:26:47] The Role of Corporate Treasury in Credit Ratings[00:41:22] ESG & Credit Ratings[01:03:02] The Impact of Interest Rates & Inflation on Credit Ratings[01:11:15] The Impact of Recent Bank Failures on Credit Markets[01:14:37] Final Thoughts & Where to Learn MoreFollow Alex Griffiths on Socials: Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alex-griffiths-5b79ab8/ Website: https://www.fitchratings.com/ Follow Corporate Treasury 101:Website: https://corporate-treasury-101.com/ LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/company/86645197/admin/dashboard/ Follow Hussam & Guillaume:Hussam on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/hussam-ali-6bb69186/ Guillaume on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/guillaume-jouvencel/ Gha Marketing Website: https://ghapodcast.com/ #Treasury #Finance #CreditRatings #RiskManagement #ESG #FinancialMarkets #FitchRatings #CorporateFinance #Inflation #InterestRates----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Get $100 off any AFP product, including their CTP Exam Prep Platform, using our discount code! Find this and More on our partner's pagehttps://www.corporate-treasury-101.com/partners-page

WALL STREET COLADA
Impacto de los Aranceles de Trump, Bitcoin en Caída y Crisis en la Industria Automotriz

WALL STREET COLADA

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 3, 2025 4:03


En este episodio, analizamos las noticias clave que están sacudiendo los mercados y sectores estratégicos: Mercados en rojo por nuevos aranceles: Trump impone aranceles del 25% a importaciones de Canadá y México, y del 10% a productos chinos, desatando temores de una guerra comercial. Revisamos el impacto en el $SPX, Nasdaq y Dow, así como las represalias anunciadas por Canadá y México. Bitcoin y criptos en caída: El $BTC-USD toca los $95K antes de retroceder un 4%, arrastrando consigo acciones como $MSTR, $COIN y $RIOT. Examinamos cómo la aversión al riesgo por la política comercial de EE.UU. está golpeando el sector. Derrumbe en automotrices: Empresas como $TM, $HMC, $F y $GM sufren caídas tras los aranceles de EE.UU. sobre vehículos fabricados en Canadá y México. Analizamos cómo esta decisión podría alterar la industria y generar represalias de otros países. DeepSeek bajo presión global: Taiwán prohíbe el uso del modelo R1 en agencias gubernamentales por preocupaciones de seguridad y censura, sumándose a Italia, Francia y Corea del Sur. Fitch Ratings advierte sobre una posible burbuja en la inversión en IA. Acompáñanos para entender cómo estos eventos están transformando el panorama económico, tecnológico y comercial. ¡Un episodio cargado de análisis estratégico!

Get Rich Education
536: Why the Housing Crisis is Pushing Homelessness to Catastrophic Heights

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 13, 2025 39:55


Discover the latest global real estate trends and untapped investment opportunities. Keith uncovers high-yield new build rental properties that can deliver impressive returns, even in today's challenging market. Don't miss your chance to build lasting wealth through strategic real estate investing. Tune in now to get the insider insights you need to get ahead. The podcast dives into dramatic global real estate trends, with home prices skyrocketing over 10% in countries like Colombia and the Netherlands. It also examines the alarming rise in U.S. homelessness, driven by factors like housing shortages and inflation. To counter these challenges, the show spotlights compelling new-build rental properties that could offer attractive returns for passive investors. GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/536 Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:02   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we look at global home price change, the asset class rundown, then the homelessness crisis is mega bad. It just reached new, unprecedented levels, and real estate and inflation has a lot to do with the homelessness surge today on get rich education.   Speaker 1  0:28   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show. Guess who? Top Selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:13   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:29   Welcome to GRE from Kent Washington to Tashkent, Uzbekistan and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education. One reason for a not just national, but global, rise in real estate prices is that you can't fake it. Real property is not a derivative, yeah, you can't fake it. So this really emphasizes the word real in real estate. It's not a crypto within infinite supply. It's not an NFT. You can't fake construction. You can't fake real materials put into property, from concrete to kitchen cabinets. So in the year recently ended, as we catch up to global home prices and select nations, per Fitch Ratings. Let's do that because it was not just a US centric thing. In the Netherlands, the home price change last year was 13% you had that much appreciation in the Netherlands. Colombia, 10% Mexico up 9.3% Brazil had 8% home price appreciation. Australia, 5.2% Australia has just seen year over year home price appreciation for such a long time. The UK had 5% appreciation. Spain, 5% as well. The USA, 4% just like I predicted at the end of 2023 for 2024 It did indeed come in at 4% Canada also had exactly 4% home price appreciation last year, just like the USA did. Denmark 3% Italy and Japan each at two and a half percent. Germany home prices were up just one and a half percent. And France had home prices that fell 3% China had home prices that fell 7.8% that supply versus demand thing in China, where they massively overbuilt, that's why home prices are down there. And as I unveil the depths of the USS homelessness crisis later here on the show, you will see that, yeah, those appreciated real estate prices, like I just mentioned, they have a lot to do with it. Now you might think of the youngest generation, the generation after Gen Z, as generation alpha, and that is true. However, they are no longer the youngest generation, because the babies born on New Year's Day of this year not only got to be featured in feel good local news stories. You know what? They are, also the first members of generation, beta, yeah, which will include children born from 2025 through 2039 so that is the future and the future demographic that's going to demand housing. But first of all, let's look at a year that was yes for years here on the show, we have our asset class rundown shortly after most quarters end, and certainly after a year ends. And today is no different, and this is because at times you've got to compare real estate with the other investment options that are out there. We now have music to play for our asset class rundown feature each time for today and. Future shows. And I know the GRE sound engineer has got to like this. He's also a DJ dropit, Vedrand. Here is GRE 's asset class rundown for the 12 months of last year, residential real estate values were up 4% per the NARS. Single Family existing home price, like I said earlier, single family rents up about 2% per core logic, apartment rents pretty flat, down six tenths of 1% for the year per apartment list, office buildings were down in value 9% the 30 year fixed rate mortgage. It started last year at 6.6% everyone, I mean, everyone, thought that they would go lower, but nope, they ended at 6.9% a little higher. That's per Freddie Mac survey. The s5&p 100 index was up over 23% topping out at 6100 last year. That is the first time the s&p has been up 20% plus in back to back years since 1998 and the s&p is meant to represent 500 companies, but it has become so concentrated due to the rise of the Magnificent Seven stocks that its effective diversification is less than 60 stocks. Morgan Stanley just announced that they expect the SP500, 100 returns to be flat for the next decade due to lofty valuations. Do you know that since 2000 gold has outperformed the s&p last year, gold shot up from about $2,000 peaked near $2,800 and then ended up about 30% for last year, the yield on the 10 year T note was up 63 basis points last year, basically rising from four up to 4.6% by year end. What that means is that that signals higher inflation expectations. Bitcoin up an astounding 111% to end last year around 95k and it topped out at an all time high of 108k oil up just 2% to 72 bucks and a wild card for you. Through October, Bible sales were up 22% compared to the same period versus the previous year. That is GRE 's asset class rundown. It was.    This is get rich education. Let's drop back and do some learning before I update you on housing and the homelessness crisis. Now, a lot of Americans don't really know history that well, and not very many have a good financial education either. But you know, it is quite possible that even the next person you spot in a Trader Joe's aisle has heard of Adam Smith in his landmark 1776 book The Wealth of Nations. Did you know that Adam Smith is the one credited with actually inventing the very concept of supply and demand? Yeah, Adam Smith, a Scotsman is credited with that. He is known as the father of modern economics. You might have already known that. Well, of course, supply versus demand seems to be a more relevant concept than usual. Here with the housing shortage crisis, Adam Smith, he proposed the idea of what he called an invisible hand, that is the tendency of free markets to regulate themselves using competition, supply and demand and self interest, a Darwinian sort of struggle. Really, did you know that he also created the concept of gross domestic product? Yeah, prior to Adam Smith's work, most people considered a nation's wealth based on the amount of gold and silver reserves that they had stored. But Adam Smith said no, it's more about productivity quantified in this GDP in a lot of his work. It also discusses the evolution of human society from a hunter stage with no property rights and no fixed residences, to nomadic agriculture with shifting residences. And then the next stage after that is a feudal society, where laws and property rights are established to protect privileged classes. And finally, that modern society is characterized by laissez faire or free markets, so a good chunk of Adam Smith's work revolved around real estate. Now, the history of economics like that is a phrase that sounds boring. Maybe it is to some people, but as an investor, the least that you should know about Adam Smith's landmark book The Wealth of Nations from the year 1776 is that to review, he invented the supply demand concept. He created the GDP concept, and he championed free markets. That's something you're going to appreciate knowing in your investor life. And also supply demand, as I discussed that in the homelessness problem shortly.    we are a real estate show, and, you know, I just don't hear other real estate shows talk about, well, the unfortunate, I guess, absence of real estate in an increasing number of people's lives now, even if you have a home, learn about how homelessness is gonna make your life worse, too. In fact, it already has. I'm not sure if you've noticed, I will get into that as well. First listen to these two spots, freedom, family investments for an eight to 10% return on your liquid capital and Ridge lending group, they specialize in income property loans. They can really help you, and I would know, because I use them both my self. I'm Keith Weinhold. This is get rich education. Here you go.   Oh, geez, the national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings, so your bank is getting rich off of you. You've got to earn way more, or else you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to a 10% return and compounds year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And you know how I'd know, because I'm an investor in this myself earn 10% like me and GRE listeners are. Text family to66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866    Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage, you can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com   Ken McElroy  12:41   this is Rich Dad advisor, Ken McElroy. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  12:57   Welcome back. You're listening to get rich education Episode 536, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, it is bad. America just hit a record high homelessness number, and it is up double digits, over 18% in just one year. It is even worse when we look at family homelessness and the rise in that and gosh, get this unaccompanied youth homeless, meaning like a 15 year old kid homeless and drifting by themselves. And this is all in the most powerful nation in the world. And even if you have a home. Homelessness is gonna make your life worse, too. We'll also look at how Trump wants to address this. It is major. And finally, are there any solutions to the homelessness crisis in America today? Well, there are now over 771,000 homeless in America, that's up from 653k just last year. And yes, the homeless can be hard to count, but as long as the methodology stays the same, I mean, there you go with the 18% increase. And here's the thing from all the years, from 2007 to 2023, all 16 of those years, we only saw a total increase of 19% during that entire span, and now 18% in just one year this latest year. I mean, talk about exponential and accelerating homelessness growth. And before I tell you about why this is happening, let's get a better idea of the gravity of this sad situation here, and this is all from HUD's newly released annual homelessness assessment report to Congress among subgroups families with children saw the biggest increase as. At 39% year over year. You think that's sad, but consider how sad this is. Unaccompanied homeless children, they're up 10% in just a year, and that was only up 3.4% all of the previous 16 years combined. Veterans are the only group to see a decrease, and the number of homeless people over 65 so we're talking seniors here that is expected to almost triple by 2030 that is just five years away, and it is just widespread too. I mean, nearly no US geography is immune from this spike in homelessness, from Florida to Maine to California to Alaska. Now, even if you have a home, the shoes of that are pretty good, if you're listening to me, you know, why does this even make your life worse? Well, of course, first of all, homelessness can make your city blighted. But beyond that, just think about how many ways it's just changing your week in and week out routine. I mean, have you noticed, like, just take, for example, when you or I walk into some grocery stores anymore. I mean, I notice how different things are than they were just say, five years ago. I mean, you've got to notice some of these things now, more often than there was just a few years ago, there's an armed guard when you walk into a store near the entrance. Well, someone is paying for that security, whether it's the store passing the price along to you, or whether it's a government or municipality paying that, well, that's where your tax money goes. And what about when you're shopping the aisles of a supermarket, or, say, CVS? Well, now even kind of moderately priced items like bottles of moisturizer, they are under lock and key behind a Plexiglas case. That's inconvenient while you're shopping if you need to use the bathroom, oh, now you need to go get a key or learn the door code to access the bathrooms. That's inconvenient when you're done and as you walk out of the store now, they are more likely to have an attendant that checks your receipts on the way out, and this is just one example at the supermarket. I mean, so many of your patterns are changing due to poor people getting poorer, and the homelessness crisis, if you're in a rural area, it probably affects you less. But just take a look around and notice the change. We're not talking about the change from your parents era, but just in your own life over the past, say, three to five years, homelessness is not good for an area's crime rate either. I mean, it is not good to have desperate people, hungry people, these people have nothing to lose if you're homeless and you commit a crime and go to jail. Hey, that might be an upgrade for some people now you've got a warm, clean place to stay in jail. So now that you and I understand more about why this even affects you and I let's talk about why is homelessness growing at this alarming rate, well, higher prices for real estate, which really accelerated in 2021 and they are not going to relent. As I've said elsewhere, home prices are not going to go down in a meaningful way anytime soon as just three weeks ago. Here on our forecast episode, I forecast another 5% of national home price appreciation this year. And it's not just higher prices, it's higher rents. Rents really started taking off in 2021 as well. Well. Higher rents, that means more evictions, and an eviction is the start of homelessness for a lot of people. And a third reason for this surge in homelessness is just that overall lack of housing. I have covered that extensively elsewhere. Yes, the housing supply crisis, and as I'm known for saying, the housing crash already occurred. Did you miss it? It was a supply crash that occurred about five years ago, and a lot of agencies think we're under supplied by 3.7 million housing units. Now, when you look at the new HUD supplied map of homelessness by state, you can very much see that it is about housing, because those regions with the highest home prices generally have the most homelessness. We're talking about the Northeast, the West Coast and Hawaii. And the fourth reason for the homelessness surge is that, of course, inflation started accelerating about four years ago, and people just cannot make ends meet anymore. CPI inflation peaked at 9.1% back. In June of 2022 and year over year, prices are still going up 3% today. Prices are not going down. They're just rising at a slower rate. And of course, inflation hurts the poor and actually helps the wealthy, exacerbating the inequality Canyon the wealthy have assets. Those assets float up in value with inflation and the prices at the grocery store are just a tiny part of a wealthy person spending. But the poor don't own assets that float up with the inflation and higher grocery prices and things like electric bills, well, they comprise a big part of a poor person's income. And fifthly, the massive arrival of immigrants pushed up homeless numbers these past, oh, three or so years. And it remains to be seen how many of those people really get deported. And you know, a sixth reason for homelessness. It's not something new, it's what I'll call all of these background reasons that have been there for decades and are not going away, like how a medical emergency can even drain a middle class person's savings and things like ongoing substance abuse. I mean, drug users often cannot stay employed. So there you have it. What was that? Six big reasons that I've identified for surging homelessness now let's see what Donald Trump has to say and understand that, due to last June Supreme Court decision, Trump now has got more power to clear out encampments and make life for the homeless more difficult, opening the door now to be criminally charged for trespassing and illegal camping. I mean, you really don't want to be homeless today as part of what Trump calls his agenda 47 his plan to tackle homelessness. Here is his preamble.    Donald Trump  21:57   Our once great cities have become unlivable, unsanitary nightmares surrendered to the homeless, the drug addicted and the violent and dangerously deranged. We're making many suffer for the whims of a deeply unwell few, and they are unwell. Indeed, the homeless have no right to turn every park and sidewalk into a place for them to squat and do drugs. Americans should not have to step over piles of needles and waste as they walk down a street in a beautiful city, or at least once beautiful city, because they've changed so much over the last 10 years.    Keith Weinhold  22:40   So that's the problem. Here's the solution. I'll boil down the meat of the Trump agenda, 47 homeless statement to just the most salient 40 seconds for you here. Just listen to this, and as you listen in closely, note that this is not a housing first plan for the homeless. Instead, it's treatment first.   Donald Trump  23:03   Under my strategy, working with states, we will ban urban camping wherever possible. Violators of these bans will be arrested, but they will be given the option to accept treatment and services if they're willing to be rehabilitated. Many of them don't want that, but we'll give them the option. We will then open up large parcels of inexpensive land, bring in doctors, psychiatrists, social workers and drug rehab specialists, and create tent cities where the homeless can be relocated and their problems identified. But we'll open up our cities again, make them livable and make them beautiful.   Keith Weinhold  23:43   Okay, it's not housing first, because, see, he wants to ban urban camping, something that parallels the Supreme Court decision. What this is not is that it is not giving the homeless hotels in the city, like some cities have recently done, converting their hotels into homeless shelters. Instead, this is designating large parcels of cheap land for tent cities, but outside the urban core, like in a big grassy lot, and then bringing in social workers and rehab specialists for them, and that way, his solution is that this city is free of homeless people, and really that is the crux of Trump's plan. But what are some other solutions here? And these are now my insights, not Trump's, that is, build more housing. That's really simple. I mean, this will naturally slow down, accelerating home prices and spiking rents, and we've got to relax regulation and zoning. We had a zoning expert, Nolan gray on the show here last year. Some scholars believe that we should just eliminate zoning in America completely. And one. One way to relax regulation is to Gosh, revisit some of these over the top safety concerns. I mean, look, it increases the cost of the most basic entry level housing when every home needs to have all these thick, fire rated doors and smoke detectors all over the place, and carbon monoxide detectors everywhere, and GFCI electrical outlets all over the place. I mean, hey, it sounds kind of funny to say out loud, but all this stuff contributes to making affordable housing impossible. And another solution is that you've got to kill nimbyism in a lot of cases, yes, that not in my backyard. Ism, you know, a person can act like they're all pro development, and like they're all free market, and they want to have their home built just how they want it, where they want it, but you know what, as soon as their home was built, they don't want others moving near them, yeah, somehow the free market's not so great anymore, okay? And they sure don't want apartment buildings nearby. Well, that is what we need, allowing taller structures to be built. That is called up zoning. It doesn't have to be a gigantic apartment building either. We need more, mmm, properties, multi families, missing middle. That means building more two, three and four unit structures in single family neighborhoods, duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes, because a lot of those can be built so that they look like single family homes. But yet it's something affordable and it helps with density. Another solution to deal with homelessness is to, of course, bring down inflation. The government needs to stop printing, say, $1 trillion to pay for a program, whether that's sending aid to foreign nations or whatever that program is. When more dollars are created like that, it debases the currency everyone else is holding on to, including your dollars, and it makes everyone from landlords to grocers have to raise their prices. And you know, here's the funny thing in the last election for president that we had last year, well, that administration got voted out of office, and many say that the number one reason was due to high inflation, but yet, look at what they voted for with the incoming administration. Everyone expects higher inflation. So there's a real paradox there.    On our YouTube channel, you can watch videos of me going out outdoors and interviewing the homeless. In fact, I'm surprised at how many homeless let me into their tents, and they wanted to show me their makeshift shelters and tell me about their life. I mean, that's kind of the good news. They were open. They were friendly people. I think they really wanted that to get exposed, because they were hoping that people would see that to come do something for them. I think that's why they've been so open with me. So that was good on the flip side, oh gosh. One thing that they have in common is that they all seemingly want to blame somebody else for the condition that they're in other than themselves, like the government or including telling me that landlords are greedy. But it really is fascinating to see from our get rich education YouTube channel, which is different content from this show. Just search the word homeless there on the get rich education YouTube channel and you can see it.    Hey, I want to ask you something. What is your on ramp to real estate investing? Like, how did you approach it? Or how did you get into it? I mean, mine was as a disgruntled employee. That's it. I didn't come from a complimentary professional place. I mean, that's how I became an investor, and there was nothing wrong with my job position. Specifically, I worked with good people and everything. In fact, I had an easy and safe job, and it paid a little bit well. But, you know, safe is not the place to be. Safety is the opposite of freedom. As an employee, you know, I could see that 401 K type plans. They were designed so that you don't get income from them until you're old. It's a salary reduction plan all those working years as well. Well, no wonder that your employer encourages participation in them. That way they're going to keep you working as an employee until retirement, because that's when they're designed to generate income. But see my point here, really is that I did not have a complimentary skill set to real estate investing, and if you do, it can be to your advantage. So you know what I mean. Let's take a couple of friends of. The show here, Robert Helms, host of the terrific real estate guys radio show. He came from a real estate agent family. His dad was an agent. Well, that can help you find deals. How about Ken McElroy, another frequent guest on the show here, very successful real estate investor. Well, he was a property manager before he became a real estate investor, totally complementary skill set. And by the way, two months ago in New Orleans, I was invited to participate in a collective inner circle mastermind group session that Robert and Ken help run. That was cool, but getting back to complementary skill sets, Michael Becker, a former guest here on the show, he was a lender, so he got to see the paperwork of all these successful investors. So he became one himself. I mean, as a lender, you keep seeing savvy investors leverage themselves with debt and then do cash out refinances, a tax free windfall event, all while they keep the asset too well. He wanted to get in on some of that. And I also know real estate investors that started out as handymen, okay, a hands on trade that can totally help when you're starting out as a real estate investor. So do you have a complimentary skill set that can help make you a successful real estate investor. If you don't, then don't despair, because you know what? I don't have one myself. I was just a former employee that wanted something else. I don't have a complimentary skill set to real estate investing. No transferable professional skill. Instead of that, I just became a reader, but not a massive reader. Of course, I was a learner before I was a teacher. I enjoyed learning this stuff, and I also got a good grasp on the numbers and how that works. But importantly, my advantage was I take action, I just keep adding property to my portfolio. You just got to keep doing that, regardless of what's happening in the larger economy or what prices are or what interest rates are.    And as you know, last week, I discussed the advantages of owning and building with brand new build rental property today, and you know, new build and these build to rent properties, those are things that that really wasn't even available when I started out investing. Well, it wasn't. I mean, with new build, oh, your maintenance repair costs are going to be low. You tend to attract a high quality tenant that also tends to stay for a while. Insurance costs tend to be lower on new build. And there's a bigger advantage than all of that in the market cycle right now that I'll get into shortly. Well, historically, the long run average. Do you have any idea what proportion of homes for sale are new build homes? Any guess, like, what share of those homes are new? It's only about one in eight. Yeah, the Census Bureau and the NAR tell us that it's 13% historically. Okay, well, what do you think it is today? Well, today, that number is up. Existing homeowners, they're not selling those homes aren't getting on the market as often due to the lock in effect, and we have to add supply. So in order to do that, we are building more new there's just no other way to bring it to market. Well, today, the proportion of new build homes for sale among all homes for sale is fully double that, at 26% although we're still undersupplied of homes in the US by about 30% you know there are pockets where they've overbuilt with new builds, including in Florida and Texas. So the time could really be right to expand your income property portfolio in one of those places, because builders that we work with at GRE marketplace are really willing to give you a deal now you've got them right where you want them if you're looking for a deal. How does a four and three quarter percent interest rate sound? Yes. Rates on non owner occupied property are about eight right now. They're about seven on owner occupied property, but we've got builders willing to buy your rate down to 4.75% and they're also offering one year of free property management and three months of rent guarantee protection in case your property is not occupied right away. The first one is a brand new build duplex in Inverness, Florida, two beds, two baths, each side, price of 420k projected rent from both sides at $2,830 and the size is 2100 square feet. I mean the. That sounds like it could make your cash flow thin, until you consider that 4.75% fixed mortgage rate the property tax is about one and a half percent and insurance get this projected at just $1,155 a year for an entire new build duplex, and now you might ask, what could the rate of return be on this Florida duplex new build? Well, I projected 5% appreciation for this year. New builds tend to appreciate better than existing property, but let's just use 5% if you have a 25% down payment, that's four to one leverage. So you've got a 20% return on your money. And let's just keep it conservative. When we look at monthly cash flow, that results in a 5% cash on cash return. Add that to your 20% leverage appreciation, you're up to a 25% ROI already. Add in the fact that your tenant is paying down your principal for you by $405 every month. That's 4860 annually, divided by your 105k down payment. That means you've got another four and a half percent return here. Let's just call it four. You're up to a 29% total ROI we haven't even added in yet, your tax depreciation benefit, and now you're up to a return in the mid 30s. Finally, your inflation profiting benefit on your fixed amortizing debt, and you are well into the 40s for a percent return on an annual basis. And of course, most of these are only projections. It could disappoint you at 30 or less, still a nice return, or it could over perform at 50% or more. I mean, this right here is how wealth is built. I mean, this is how you do something that disrupts your entire family tree that was the new build duplex. Then I'll share one other one with you. Here from GRE marketplace. Is a single family rental. This one is in Locust Grove, Georgia. Gosh, it looks really good in the photo here with a two car garage and some brick facing, its price is 339k rent is 2350 The size is 2164 square feet, so only a little bigger than the duplex here in this new build, Georgia, single family rental, four beds, two baths, beautiful looking new construction on the inside, open floor plan, stainless steel appliances, I can't tell whether the floor is LVP or wood laminate, but it's got a flooring type that's resilient, that tenants like, and your rate of return is going to be similar to the duplex ROI that I laid out, though probably not quite as high as the duplex. I mean, with these interest rate buy downs, these could very well be the property types where, in just five years time, maybe even as little as two or three years time after owning them, you look back and you consider how opportunistic you work in this part of the market cycle where there are now more new builds that you can choose from, and a builder was willing To make you a deal to keep their product moving, because they build a little too much in some pockets of Florida, for example. So yes, these and more like them are available, and there are more in Florida, Georgia, Alabama and a number of other states. And you know, something I don't think I shared with you earlier, it's convenient. You can get a spot with one of our GRE investment coaches right on their calendars, you can look at their calendar and pick a date and time that's convenient for you. For a free coaching session, they will learn about you. They'll let you know where the real deals are, if they're right for you at all, all you've got to do is visit GRE marketplace.com, and click on the free investment coaching area. There you are with some real opportunities and an actionable resource. Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 2  39:17   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice, please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively you   Keith Weinhold  39:45   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get rich, education.com    

Notícia no Seu Tempo
Dino susta pagamento e aciona a PF para investigar emendas

Notícia no Seu Tempo

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 24, 2024 9:33


No podcast ‘Notícia No Seu Tempo’, confira em áudio as principais notícias da edição impressa do jornal ‘O Estado de S.Paulo’ desta terça-feira (24/12/2024): O repasse federal de R$ 4,2 bilhões em emendas parlamentares de comissão foi suspenso por determinação do ministro Flávio Dino, do STF. Segundo Dino, houve “apadrinhamento” dessas emendas por líderes partidários, o que impede a identificação dos autores dos pedidos de recursos. O ministro determinou ainda que a Polícia Federal investigue a “captura” das emendas de comissão. O sistema de apadrinhamento contraria decisões anteriores do STF, que condicionaram a destinação das emendas a requisitos de transparência e rastreabilidade. Ao acionar a PF, Dino citou a Operação Overclean, que mira suspeita de desvio de emendas em vários Estados. Na opinião do ministro, o sistema de indicações “apadrinhadas” permite a “perpetuação da ocultação” dos parlamentares que solicitaram os repasses. O presidente da Câmara, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), disse que não iria comentar. E mais: Metrópole: Após queda de ponte, governo federal anuncia verbas e obras para 2025 Economia: Alta do dólar e do juro ameaça negócios no Brasil, alerta Fitch Ratings Política: CNJ afasta juiz de MS suspeito de comprar fazenda de R$ 30 milhões com propina Internacional: Biden converte em perpétua 37 das 40 penas de morte federais nos EUA Esportes: Santos surpreende e contrata o treinador Pedro CaixinhaSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

GREY Journal Daily News Podcast
Could this merger change the landscape of the automotive industry forever

GREY Journal Daily News Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 23, 2024 3:11


Honda and Nissan announced plans to merge, creating the world's third-largest automaker by sales. The merger aims to unify operations under a joint holding company, with Honda initially leading management. The goal is to finalize the agreement by June 2024 and list the company on the Tokyo Stock Exchange by August 2026. No financial details were disclosed, but the merger could result in a combined market value exceeding $50 billion. Foxconn showed interest in acquiring shares from Nissan's alliance partner Renault, but Nissan denied any negotiations. Toyota remains the leading Japanese automaker with approximately 11.5 million vehicle sales in 2023, while the combined output of Honda, Nissan, and Mitsubishi would total around 8 million. Recent financial struggles for Nissan included a reduction of 9,000 jobs and a $61 million net quarterly loss. Fitch Ratings downgraded Nissan's credit outlook due to declining profitability, while Nissan's shares rose by 1.6% and Honda's by 3.8% following the merger announcement.Learn more on this news visit us at: https://greyjournal.net/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

China Perspectives
China's Solar PV Manufacturing Industry

China Perspectives

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 5, 2024 18:42


Jing Yang, Director of Fitch Ratings, discusses key credit trends of China's solar PV manufacturing industry.  (00:00) - Introduction (00:46) - Current state of the industry and reason for oversupply (04:37) - Stage of market re-balancing (08:00) - Effectiveness of government response (13:02) - Impact of Trump 2.0 tariff hikes

Illinois In Focus - Powered by TheCenterSquare.com
Illinois in Focus Daily | November 25th, 2024 - Fitch Pegs Illinois' Unfunded Pension Liability Second Worst in Nation

Illinois In Focus - Powered by TheCenterSquare.com

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 25, 2024 38:09


Greg Bishop reviews some of a recent report from Fitch Ratings about states' pension liabilities compared to personal income and Illinois has the second worst. He gets reaction from state Rep. Blaine Wilhour and state Sen. Robert Martwick.Support this podcast: https://secure.anedot.com/franklin-news-foundation/ce052532-b1e4-41c4-945c-d7ce2f52c38a?source_code=xxxxxx

Noticentro
Alerta amarilla por bajas temperaturas en la CDMX

Noticentro

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 22, 2024 1:41


Sheinbaum se reúne con Shelly Shetty, directora de Fitch Ratings 75% de los sitios web comparte datos personales con tercerosLas jirafas están por entrar en la lista de especies en peligro de extinciónMás información en nuestro podcast 

Special Briefing
Special Briefing: America's Growth Regions

Special Briefing

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 1, 2024 51:02


The US economy's extraordinary recovery since the darkest days of the COVID-19 pandemic has continued into the fall of 2025, with inflation retreating and the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates to keep jobs and investment humming along. Our expert panel discusses where the economy is growing fastest—and less fast—and what this means for state and local budgets and finances. Our panel of experts includes Rochester (Minnesota) Mayor Kim Norton, Georgia State Economist Robert Buschman, Fitch Ratings head of US State ratings Eric Kim, and PIMCO Senior Vice President Tom Schuette. Notable Quotes: “We were very pleased that money came directly to the cities and local jurisdictions, so we didn't have to go through a lot of time to get it through the state. It was very beneficial to get that money into our communities quickly, starting with ARPA and then the CARES Act funds.” - Mayor Kim Norton “Since the last quarter before the pandemic, Q4 2019, Georgia real GDP growth has run 2.4% per year, on average, slightly better than the 2.3% average for the nation. And though we had our own soft landing in the first half of 2023, we're up 3.5% since then, compared to 3% for the nation. Job growth has also outpaced the nation for most of the expansion.” - Bob Buschman “Growth coming out of the pandemic has been very robust nationally, so strong in fact that it beats expectations month after month, quarter after quarter, year after year. I think most economists were anticipating a recession for about two years before finally giving up and accepting that the economic growth was simply going to continue, even with the Federal Reserve ratcheting up interest rates above 5%.” - Eric Kim “I think in 20-plus years doing this at a rating agency and also on the buy side, I would argue that I've never seen the public sector so well-prepared for any turbulence or volatility on the revenue or expenditure side as they are right now.” - Tom Schuette Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

BFM :: Morning Brief
High Public Debt, A Global Problem

BFM :: Morning Brief

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 24, 2024 10:23


The International Monetary Fund or IMF and the World Bank will start their annual meetings today in Washington which are overshadowed by a report that warns that public debt will rise above USD100 trillion. Brian Coulton, Fitch Ratings' Chief Economist tells us why we should be concerned about this and the consequences of ignoring it.Image Credit: shutterstock.com

El Economista Podcasts
El Senado aprobó la reforma Judicial ¿corre riesgo la calificación del soberano?

El Economista Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 12, 2024 7:51


Las agencias calificadoras (Standard and Poor´s, Moody´s y Fitch Ratings son las principales) se encargan de revisar la solidez económica de sus clientes, cuando se trata de empresas, pero cuando se trata de gobiernos se consideran aspectos como la seguridad para realizar inversiones, y, precisamente, la certeza jurídica y el Estado de Derecho son fundamentales para decidir traer sus capitales a México, aquí le contamos cómo están viendo a México en este momento.

SD Bullion
FITCH reported this week that the 2024 US DEFICIT is currently at 8.1% OF GDP

SD Bullion

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 3, 2024 10:56


Fitch Ratings has expressed concern about the United States' burgeoning deficit, which is currently at 8.1% of GDP. This alarming figure is a sign of the country's financial instability and raises questions about its long-term economic health. The deficit is likely to put pressure on the US dollar and could lead to higher interest rates, making it more expensive for businesses and consumers to borrow money.

Broojula
22 Agosto, 2024 - AMLO y los empresarios

Broojula

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 22, 2024 24:58


Morgan Stanley, Fitch Ratings, Citibanamex y Bank of America, son algunas de las instituciones financieras que han reaccionado a la reforma judicial que el Gobierno federal impulsa. Claudia Sheinbaum y el presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador insisten en que con la reforma, las inversiones estarán más seguras; además de que tanto el Poder Judicial como el Estado de Derecho se fortalecerán. Jorge Suárez-Vélez, economista, nos habla al respecto. En otros temas: Claudia Sheinbaum anunció a más de sus futuros colaboradores: Citlalli Hernández, Tatiana Clouthier y hasta Martí Batres, ya tienen un lugar en el Gabinete ampliado / Luego de una pasarela de tres días de los principales líderes del partido, Kamala Harris cerrará esta noche la Convención Nacional Demócrata.

Good Morning Africa
De-risking, Financial Inclusion, and Legal Insights with Haider Dingomar.

Good Morning Africa

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 13, 2024 10:25


The Core Report
#363 Markets Fall On Weak Signals

The Core Report

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 13, 2024 22:12


On Episode 363 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Manish Gupta, senior director and deputy chief ratings officer at CRISIL Ratings.SHOW NOTES(00:00) The Take: Borrowing to Invest(05:09) Markets fall on weak signals(07:32) Red Sea crisis leads to 64% jump in global cargo ships fuelling in India.(10:07) Fitch Ratings says lower attrition, slow wage growth is helping Indian IT companies maintain profitability(11:57) Thermal power production has fallen for the first time in India.Register for The Core Meet Up!!Listeners! We await your feedback....For sponsorships and brand studio engagements, contact shiva@thecore.inFor more of our coverage check out thecore.inJoin and Interact anonymously on our whatsapp channelSubscribe to our NewsletterFollow us on:Twitter | Instagram | Facebook | Linkedin | Youtube

Wicked Pissah Podcast
#212 - Bonds vs. Bond Funds- Vanguard with Ted Dinucci

Wicked Pissah Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 6, 2024 33:59


Vanguard Hosts Brad Wright and Chris Boyd are joined by Ted Dinucci, an investment strategist with Vanguard's Investment Advisory Research Center, the team tasked with creating thought leadership for their intermediary advisory partners across a range of investment, wealth management, and financial planning topics. They discuss: -Individual bonds vs bond funds - How to utilize each for income during retirement -Which is better during a falling interest rate environment Learn more at: https://advisors.vanguard.com/advisors-home Join Vanguard at the following New England locations: -Vanguard RIA Social:  Envio on the Rooftop – Portsmouth, NH:  Wed Aug 21 st   4:30pm –7:30pm   PLEASE RSVP -Vanguard RIA Social:  Granary Tavern – Boston (Financial), MA:  Thurs Aug 22 nd 4:30pm-7:30pm   PLEASE RSVP -Vanguard RIA Meet & Connect Luncheon – Riverbend (Marriott) Newton, MA:  Thurs Aug 22 nd  12pm-2pm PLEASE RSVP - Vanguard Symposium - Marriott Long Wharf – Boston, MA:  Thurs, Oct 24 th  9:30am–3pm:   RESERVE A SPOT NOW and you'll receive an email invite. Additional details to follow. Or at the FPA-NE NexGen event: - FPA NE NexGen Presents Build Your Client Service Team (formally Cross Industry Networking): Lily's Boston (Financial) Thus, Aug 8 th  5pm – 7pm - one of FPA's most popular events of the season! https://lp.constantcontactpages.com/ev/reg/t3jvpz5 [lp.constantcontactpages.com]   Investment Advisory Research Center OCTOBER 2022 Individual bonds versus bond funds: Our thoughts on the advisory practice and client outcomes Key takeaways • Forecasting markets accurately is difficult. A much more reliable prediction to make: What questions clients will ask during periods of rising interest rates. Inevitably, rising rates environments prompt a flood of inquiries about whether advisors and their clients are better off purchasing individual bonds or pooled products, such as mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These questions stem directly from the “principal at maturity” myth, which argues that bond funds will sell bonds at a loss when rates rise, while portfolios of individual bonds can be held to maturity and avoid losses. • Ultimately, bond funds operate the same way as portfolios of individual bonds when cash flows are being reinvested. However, the former generally offer greater return opportunities, lower transaction costs, and higher liquidity—as well as time savings for your practice—than comparable portfolios of individual bonds. Thus, advisors pursuing portfolios of individual bonds should expect to pay greater direct and indirect costs for maintaining complete control of client bond portfolios. The price tag for this control is higher for buyers of municipal and corporate bonds than for buyers of U.S. Treasuries. • Given the higher risks and costs associated with portfolios of individual bonds, and the time they take to manage, most advisors are better served by low-cost mutual funds and ETFs. Particularly in the case of municipal and corporate bonds, it is likely that only clients with enough resources to build a portfolio of comparable scale to a mutual fund (or ETF) can afford to pay the costs for these control advantages. • Consider this report as a resource to inform your client discussions—either for proactive conversations about fixed income portfolio decisions, or to satisfy questions and concerns clients bring to you. For clients who may be partial to holding individual bonds for emotional reasons, the following analysis provides you with empirical data points that could guide them to a more beneficial approach. We also believe the strategies outlined herein can ultimately empower you with more time for higher-value activities, such as deepening client relationships. Authors: Ted Dinucci, CFA | Chris Tidmore, CFA, CPA | Chris Pettit, CFA Acknowledgments: The authors extend our thanks to Elizabeth Muirhead, CFA, and Edward Saracino for their contributions to this report, and to Donald G. Bennyhoff, CFA, and Scott J. Donaldson, CFA, for their prior research, which greatly informed this paper. 2 Introduction The market and economic backdrop today appear highly uncertain, with the highest inflation in 40 years, a series of large rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, and Russia's war in Ukraine, to name a few factors. Understandably, the confluence of these events has led to significant market volatility. It's also led some investors to question the merits of pooled bond vehicles and to ask whether they may be better served by directly owning a portfolio of individual bonds. In some cases, there can be benefits to owning individual bonds, for instance, a nominal immunization strategy where the goal is matching portfolio cash flows to liabilities. However, for the vast majority of advisors and the investors they serve, the likely appeal of individual bonds is largely based on the principal at maturity myth, and embracing it is likely to diminish returns, diversification, and return on your time. This paper offers our perspective on the primary advantages bond funds have over portfolios of individual bonds in the three key regards of returns, diversification, and return on your time (in exchange for less control over individual securities).1 More important, for the vast majority, accessing fixed income via low- cost active or passive funds is likely to provide better outcomes than the direct ownership of individual bonds—even with the hurdle of ongoing management fees. However, we'll first address the flaws in the principal at maturity myth, since this misconception is what generates so much interest in the topic. FIGURE 1. Benefits of choosing either a bond fund or individual bond BOND FUNDS INDIVIDUAL BONDS INCREASED CONTROL ✓ INCREASED DIVERSIFICATION ✓ INCREASED RETURN OPPORTUNITIES ✓ LOWER TRANSACTION COSTS ✓ 1 Vanguard 2017. 3 FIGURE 1. Benefits of choosing either a bond fund or individual bond BOND FUNDS INDIVIDUAL BONDS INCREASED CONTROL ✓ INCREASED DIVERSIFICATION ✓ INCREASED RETURN OPPORTUNITIES ✓ LOWER TRANSACTION COSTS ✓ The principal at maturity myth Holding an individual bond to maturity offers little to no financial benefit to you or your clients versus a pooled product when cash flows are reinvested, as often occurs in laddered individual bond strategies.2 Both portfolios operate in a similar way, but the laddered portfolio is likely to incur greater trading costs and have less diversification. The way that advisors account for laddered bonds in their client statements—by not marking the bonds to their current value, in order to avoid recognizing a paper loss—helps to reinforce the behavioral bias and may mitigate business risk for the advisor. Ultimately, bond prices are inversely related to changes in interest rates: When interest rates rise, the bond's price falls, and vice versa. This is because a bond's coupon payments are typically fixed at issuance, leaving price as the only variable that can be adjusted to make the bond's yield competitive with that of newly issued bonds of similar risk and maturity. This is illustrated in Figure 2. If 10-year bonds are currently yielding 4%, the price of a 2% coupon bond—to be competitive—must decline to a level that results in a 4% yield-to-maturity. In this example, that price is 83.65% of the face value (or $836.50 per $1,000 face value). The 2% bond would provide the same return as the 4% coupon bond trading at par, but some of the return would come from the bond's appreciation from $836.50 to its $1,000 value at maturity, as opposed to the coupon payments. This price adjustment punctures the common myth that holding an individual bond to maturity will provide a financial benefit to your clients. Absent transaction costs, when interest rates change, prices adjust so that total returns will be equal from that point forward, regardless of whether the bond is held to maturity or sold at the prevailing market price with the proceeds reinvested. FIGURE 2. How bond prices adjust to keep yields-to-maturity the same A comparison of hypothetical bonds with 10 years to maturity Coupon (annual interest payment) 6% 4% 2% Market price as a percentage of face value 116.35% 100% 83.65% Yield to maturity 4% 4% 4% Source: Vanguard. This hypothetical illustration does not represent any particular investment and the rate is not guaranteed. FIGURE 3. Total returns closely match starting yields, regardless of whether prices are above (or below) par 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Forward annualized return versus starting yield Starting yield Forward annualized return when starting price is above par Forward annualized return when starting price is below par Figure 3 demonstrates this point by comparing the forward annualized return for the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, adjusted for duration, with its starting yield. Here, it is readily apparent that future returns closely track starting yields. Moreover, the narrative doesn't change whether the index is trading above or below par. Therefore, when evaluating bonds with the same characteristics but with different coupon payments, it is always best to compare their yields to maturity.3 Notes: Returns represent the annualized return on the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index using monthly data for the period that aligns with the index's starting modified adjusted duration, rounded to the nearest month. For instance, if on December 31, 2005, the duration on the index was 5 years, the forward annualized return would be from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Yields represent the index's yield to worst (YTW) at the start of each calculation period. YTW is a measure for the lowest possible yield that may be earned on a bond absent the issuer defaulting. The last observation in the figure is September 30, 2015, because after that date the index's starting duration is longer than the time series. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. The performance of an index is not an exact representation of any particular investment, as you cannot invest directly in an index. Sources: Vanguard analysis of Bloomberg data, as of March 2022. 2 Laddering refers to building a portfolio of bonds with a range of maturities. 3 Yield-to-maturity is the percentage rate of return on a bond, assuming that the bond is held to maturity. For bonds that may be called prior to their stated maturity, yield-to-worst is a preferable measure, as it accounts for the bond's call feature and represents the lowest possible yield that may be earned assuming no default. 4 As mentioned, this principal at maturity myth typically surfaces only when interest rates rise or are expected to rise. If rising rates mean there is a financial benefit to holding bonds to maturity, then falling rates should mean there is a benefit to selling them and reinvesting the proceeds in new bonds. Thus, an active trading strategy would be preferred over a simple buy-and-hold, laddered bond portfolio to take advantage of the market inefficiency. Ironically, this environment has been the norm for the past 20-plus years, yet the trading concept has not been endorsed by the investment community. One doesn't hear that when interest rates are falling, an open-end mutual fund or ETF with no set maturity date is the preferred structure. Thus, the appeal of holding a bond to maturity is likely emotional, as by not selling a bond at a discount to par, your clients are able to avoid the mental roadblock of “recognizing” a loss. Rather than let this behavioral bias win, advisors can seize this as an opportunity to flex their coaching muscles and leverage the trust they've built with clients to help produce better outcomes. Consider this analogy: Just because you chose not to sell your house when prices dipped does not mean it's worth more than the home of your neighbors, who did sell. The same logic applies to fixed income—whether the bonds are held individually, in a bond fund, or in a separately managed account (SMA).4 Diversification can mean higher returns for similar levels of risk In fixed income investing, diversification among issuers, credit qualities, and term structures is a primary consideration for municipal and corporate bonds. For laddered bond portfolios, issuance calendars do not offer consistent access to all types of bonds. On the contrary, with bond funds, greater diversification is possible because of the larger pool of investable assets and the continuous investment in new offerings. This, coupled with the professional staff needed to conduct risk, trade, and credit analysis allows funds to seek return opportunities farther out on the credit quality spectrum than is possible for an advisor. In the case of the latter, their clients may be seriously affected if even one issuer in their (much smaller) portfolio encounters problems. In the case of corporate bonds (and munis), the dynamic nature of credit risk makes it essential to diversify issuer- specific risk. The price volatility that results from a change in an issuer's credit rating is typically asymmetrical: When a credit downgrade occurs, a bond usually will drop much further in price than it would rise on news of an upgrade. This means that for holders of individual corporate bonds, the penalty for choosing a bond that is downgraded is usually greater than the reward for choosing one that gets upgraded. Professional fund managers who are fully focused on credit analysis may be better suited to spot these trends sooner and avoid the negative effects of downgrades and defaults. FIGURE 4. Incremental pickups in yields available relative to AA rated corporates Average option-adjusted spread Average cumulative defaults 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% AA rated Broad investment-grade Credit quality 0.98% 0.55% As a result, many individual bond portfolios exhibit a higher-quality bias relative to bond funds because of the inability to fully benefit from diversification. As shown in Figure 4, higher return opportunities, in terms of incremental yield, are available beyond AA rated corporates to compensate for the low, but always possible, risk of default—even when staying within the corporate investment-grade universe. A more diversified approach that spans the spectrum of investment-grade corporates can translate into a meaningful increase in yield without sacrificing the primary role of high-quality fixed income in a portfolio—acting as a ballast to risk assets. It should be noted that diversification of credit quality can also be achieved through passive exposure. Notes: Average option-adjusted spreads (OAS) cover the period of January 1997 to April 2022. AA rated as represented by ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread; and broad investment-grade as represented by ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread. OAS is a measure of the difference in yield of a bond and the comparable risk-free rate, adjusted to account for any embedded option. Analysis begins with AA rated corporates, as there are only two AAA rated corporate issuers. Average cumulative defaults are calculated by FitchRatings and represent the 10-year average cumulative defaults for the period of January 1990 to December 2021. Default rates are calculated on an issuer or security basis as opposed to dollar amounts. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FitchRatings, and Vanguard analysis, as of April 2022. 4 Separately managed accounts are investment portfolios that are directly owned by an investor and managed by a professional investment firm. 5 FIGURE 5. Growth of hypothetical $1 million initial investment from January 1997 Ending wealth in (million USD) $3.2 $3.3 $3.4 $3.5 $3.6 $3.7 $3.8 $3.9 $4.0 AA corporates Broad I-G corporates $4.1 $4.2 Ending wealth with AA corporates Excess wealth with lower quality Figure 5 translates the lost return opportunities in Figure 3 into actual excess wealth created by expanding the investment opportunity set beyond AA rated bonds.5 For a long-term investor, being broadly invested in investment-grade corporates would have produced an additional $400,000 of nominal wealth, given a hypothetical, initial $1 million investment in 1997, relative to the same investment in AA rated corporates. Moreover, through broad diversification, as an advisor, you would be able to increase your client's long-term expected returns for their fixed income holdings, while significantly reducing single-issuer risk and still maintain high overall credit quality. Notes: Figure assumes a hypothetical initial $1 million investment on January 1, 1997, and held until April 30, 2022. AA corporates as represented by ICE BofA 5–10 Year AA US Corporate Index; and broad I-G corporates as represented by ICE BofA 5–10 Year US Corporate Index. Sources: Vanguard analysis of Morningstar data, as of April 2022. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. The performance of an index is not an exact representation of any particular investment, as you cannot invest directly in an index. Transaction costs are real, but often go overlooked All bond portfolios incur costs. Though the management cost component often receives the lion's share of attention because it is readily apparent and known in advance, it also represents only one part of the equation. Less scrutinized, but similarly detrimental to long-term financial outcomes are transaction costs (e.g., bid-ask spreads). Ultimately, bid-ask spreads tend to vary by trade size and bond sector, and the size of the spread is typically larger for small transactions. Bond mutual funds and ETFs buy and sell large quantities of bonds, and these large transactions can command higher prices for sales and lower prices for buys. So long as the size of the spreads paid or received are inversely related to purchase lot size, bond funds have a transaction cost advantage over individual bond portfolios. The benefits of scale are most significant in the municipal bond market, but still relevant and tell a similar story to that of corporates. Figure 6 illustrates this point. It shows that in the municipal bond market, the spread for a retail trade (less than $100,000 per bond) on average has been consistently higher than that for an institutional trade. Specifically, between January 2019 and April 2021 the effective spread for transactions with a par value between $25,001 and $100,000 averaged 56.4 basis points (bps), while transactions with a par value of over $1 million averaged 20.2 bps. This differential translates to lower total return for clients who are not able to transact at scale.6 Additionally, large firms, such as Vanguard, are able to get the broadest access to bonds in the primary market, so it's not only about the size of the trade and lower costs, but also what bonds one gets to purchase. This is especially important as there tends to be a drop-off in liquidity as time passes from issuance. FIGURE 6. Spreads are significantly wider for retail trades relative to institutional trades (bps) $10,000 or less $10,001- $25,000 $25,001- $100,000 $100,001- $1 million $1 million+ 20.2 56.4 35.5 63.6 81.9 In the end, higher spreads translate into lower returns. Whether creating a taxable or tax-exempt bond portfolio for a client, the basic decision comes down to this: Does the fund expense ratio detract less from the portfolio's total return than (1) the return surrendered by a higher credit-quality bias, if one exists, (2) the default risk, if there is no quality bias, or (3) the additional transaction costs? It would be rare for the fund expense ratio (particularly in the case of a lower-cost bond fund) to be larger than the other costs. Notes: The above figure shows the average effective spread for municipal bond transactions of various sizes from January 2019 to April 2021. Effective spread is a measure of customer transaction costs and is computed daily for each bond as the difference between the volume-weighted average dealer-to-customer buy and sell price, and is then averaged across bonds using equal weighting. Sources: MSRB data and Vanguard analysis. 5 Though an advised client's fixed income portfolio is unlikely to be comprised of only intermediate-term (5- to 10-year maturity) U.S. corporate bonds. 6 As a simple example, if constructing an initial bond portfolio with an average duration of five years and transaction costs of 50 bps, it would translate to 10 bps per year. 6 Control of the portfolio One, or perhaps the only, advantage of self-directed individual bond portfolios and, to some extent, SMAs over pooled vehicles is the owner's ability to influence portfolio decisions. The motivation for maintaining control generally falls into three camps: strict portfolio guidelines that place firm restrictions on portfolio characteristics, such as credit-quality (e.g., all-AA portfolio) or limits on derivatives usage; matching portfolio cash-flows with specific liabilities (e.g., cash-flow matching); and tax concerns. Given the inflexibility of the first, and presumably, high-level of certainty of the second, we'll focus on the potential tax considerations, as certain common beliefs may be overstated and therefore warrant a discussion. Regarding taxes: Because clients directly own the bonds in an SMA or a laddered bond portfolio, as their advisor you can use any net losses from individual bond positions for tax purposes to partially offset your client's earned income or to offset realized capital gain liabilities from other investments. A mutual fund or ETF, on the other hand, cannot pass through realized losses to its shareholders. Instead, the fund uses realized losses against realized gains, and carries forward any excess losses to be used against future gains. Although this may defer the pass-through of losses, it provides long-term tax efficiency to the pooled structure. In addition, as the advisor, you have a further option: You can sell your clients' fund shares to realize a loss where applicable. Regarding individual bond portfolios or SMAs, another factor to consider is that to take advantage of losses in these accounts, you will incur transaction costs for your clients on both the sale of the current bond and the purchase of the new bond. Though all the above applies to both taxable and tax- exempt bonds, in terms of the latter, there is often the additional consideration of alternative minimum taxes (AMT). With an individual bond portfolio or SMA, the portfolio can be tailored to bonds that are exempt from AMT or specific to issues from your client's home state. While this is true, it is important to acknowledge that there are currently a number of state-specific vehicles available for your clients—particularly in states with high tax rates. Also, though it's sometimes forgotten, the key point that advisors should be concerned with is seeking to maximize client after-tax returns, rather than with minimizing taxes. Bonds issued outside a client's home state and bonds subject to AMT often carry higher yields to maturity. As a result, your clients may well get higher after- tax returns from a portfolio including such bonds. In addition, clients gain from increased diversification—an important benefit. With the preceding considerations in mind, it may be impractical to transition clients from their existing SMA solutions or portfolios of individual bonds into a primarily fund-aligned strategy. For advisors that already utilize an SMA or construct their own bond sleeves, a bond fund can serve as a strong complement—by providing some additional liquidity to the portfolio and a solution for reinvesting periodic cash flows from their individual bond holdings (or SMAs) to reduce potential cash drag. Conclusion For the reasons described in this paper, the vast majority of advisors who invest for their clients are best served through low-cost bond funds. Only those advised clients with the resources to achieve scale comparable to that of a mutual fund should consider putting certain control features ahead of the benefits that a pooled investment vehicle offers. Funds generally provide better diversification, greater return opportunities, lower transaction costs, and higher liquidity for your clients. For advisors, the time savings from outsourcing the day-to-day portfolio management can be reinvested in higher returning opportunities, such as deepening client relationships and growing your practice. Although bonds that are held directly can provide certain advantages over bond mutual funds—primarily related to control over security-specific decisions—such control comes at a cost. To construct an individual bond portfolio, an advisor must assign a very high value to the control benefits to justify the higher costs and additional risks involved. 6 7 References Bennyhoff, Donald, Scott Donaldson, Jamese Dunlap, and Daren Roberts, 2017. A topic of current interest: Bonds or bond funds? Valley Forge, Pa.: The Vanguard Group. Bennyhoff, Donald G., 2009. Municipal bond funds and individual bonds. Valley Forge, Pa.: The Vanguard Group. Donaldson, Scott J., 2009. Taxable bond investing: bond funds or individual bonds? Valley Forge, Pa.: The Vanguard Group. Li, David, Charlotte L. Needham, and Jake Han, 2022. 2021 Transition and Default Studies. FitchRatings. Wu, Simon Z., and Nicholas J. Ostroy, 2021. Transaction Costs During the COVID-19 Crisis: A Comparison between Municipal Securities and Corporate Bond Markets. Washington, D.C., Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board. Connect with Vanguard® advisors.vanguard.com • 800-997-2798 All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. Be aware that fluctuations in the financial markets and other factors may cause declines in the value of your account. There is no guarantee that any particular asset allocation or mix of funds will meet your investment objectives or provide you with a given level of income. Bond funds are subject to the risk that an issuer will fail to make payments on time and that bond prices will decline because of rising interest rates or negative perceptions of an issuer's ability to make payments. Investments in bonds are subject to interest rate, credit, and inflation risk. Although the income from municipal bonds held by a fund is exempt from federal tax, you may owe taxes on any capital gains realized through the fund's trading or through your own redemption of shares. For some investors, a portion of the fund's income may be subject to state and local taxes, as well as to the federal Alternative Minimum Tax. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are registered trademarks owned by CFA Institute. We recommend that you consult a tax or financial advisor about your individual situation. Vanguard is investor-owned, meaning the fund shareholders own the funds, which in turn own Vanguard. © 2022 The Vanguard Group, Inc. All rights reserved. U.S. Patent No. 6,879,964. FAIBVBF 112022

Marketplace
Higher ed got its credit report card, and it’s not straight A’s

Marketplace

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 7, 2023 27:28


Fitch Ratings issued a warning this week that U.S. colleges and universities are likely to encounter economic headwinds — bond investors beware. Declining enrollment, higher wages for faculty and staff and 2008 recession-era debt are all at play. In this episode, why some colleges may be affected more than others. Plus, artificial intelligence is already behind the scenes in Hollywood, rent-free housing comes with a cost and an electronic music store bides its time.