ReConsider

There's something really interesting happening in Ukraine. The few and far between Russian victories seem to be making them weaker. Yes, you read that right. Russian victories are draining the life out of their soldiers, making it harder to win the battles that come next. On the other hand, Ukrainian victories have been swift, dramatic, and devastating - with each win seemingly making them stronger.The big question is, why is it that Ukrainians gain momentum with every win, but Russia can't seem to build on their victories? Well, it all comes down to asymmetric momentum. And there are 6 major reasons for this. Tune in to hear what these 6 reasons are and how the recent Ukrainian victories mark a critical juncture that will determine the course of the war.Topics Covered Include:00:00 Introduction02:40 What is asymmetric momentum?04:49 Ukrain's positional warfare06:55 Understanding Ukraine's offensive and defensive strategies08:16 Russia's unintelligent retreat10:37 How Russian political interests are affecting their progress14:54 The poor discipline and lack of drive in Russian forces16:42 Is the Russian army competent enough to win this war?18:00 How Russia's desire for a quick war is slowing their progress20:40 Ukrainian motivation and their willingness to die for the right reasons24:58 The impatient side of Russians uncovered28:30 Many Russian conscripts will die due to lack of training and morale29:36 The psychology behind Putin's destructive Soviet-style leadership32:04 Ukraine is playing the patient game34:07 Summary35:36 Parting thoughts Ukrainian victories on the ground have been swift, dramatic, and devastating. And each win seems to make them stronger.Russian victories (back when they happened), seemed to be slow and grinding, and wear the Rusisans down, making them weaker.Why is it that Russians lose momentum with each victory, but Ukrainians gain it? Why such asymmetric momentum?I see 6 (or 7, depending) major reasons:1. Russian Politics (“quick war”): impatience -> meat grinder, not admitting defeat, vs Ukraine's patience2. Russian Politics (show territorial progress): territory vs. Ukraine's “defeat the enemy” -> meat grinder3. Russian Politics (don't let Ukraine show territorial progress): no retreat allowed -> break and rout4. Morale, espirit de corps, discipline, "why are we here" vs fighting for home and life -> Ukrainians will die for the right reasons, Russians are drunk, will break and refuse to fight5. Russian atrocities: hardens Ukrainian morale and turns them into 24/7 machines of war who get smarter and become veterans6. Soviet vs. NATO style: NATO style allows for initiative and invests in training; Soviet style mass forces of limited training and centralized command means they are very predictable7. Putin: total centralized control by someone who has clearly lost touch with realityLinks and Resources:Reconsidermedia.comReconsider Media on Twitter - https://twitter.com/reconsidermediaReconsider Media on Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/ReConsiderMedia/Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mitchell Orenstein is a professor of Central and East European Politics in the Slavic department at the University of Pennsylvania and an associate of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian studies at Harvard. His research focuses on the political economy and international affairs of Central and Eastern Europe.This episode is the latest installment to the four-part series on Reconsidering Russia, where we try to dig into Russia's historical and geopolitical context to help you better understand some of their moves today and what's going on in their country today.Tune in to hear Eric, Xander, and Professor Orenstein dive deep into Russia's real objective in Ukraine, Eastern Vs. Western-leaning periods of Russian leadership, why Russia really needs to diversify its economy, and so much more.00:00 Introduction01:35 Why Geopolitics is not about reforms or democracy03:49 What does Russia really want?05:49 Understanding Russia's national interests and foreign policy preferences12:59 Eastern Vs. Western-leaning periods of Russian leadership16:33 Comparing Russian perceptions to the American interpretation20:10 What does the 'Near Abroad' mean?20:54 The democratization of Russia's 'Near Abroad'24:12 Consequences of the collapse of the Soviet Union28:10 The strategic and fundamental importance of Ukraine32:14 Russian interests in Finland34:57 The Nature of Germany's relationship with Russia39:01 Caucasus as a region of strategic importance to Russia44:15 Chinese and Russian interests in South-East Asia47:15 China-Russia relations: Eternal rivals or emerging alliance 50:41 Russia's views on China's growth in power and influence 52:38 Russia-Japan dispute over Kuril Islands 54:50 Thoughts on Russia's domestic politics and foreign policy58:35 Why Russia really needs to diversify its economy01:01:58 What to expect from Russia in the next 5 to 10 years01:05:18 Russia - a gas station with nuclear weapons01:08:03 Parting thoughts Links and Resources:Reconsidermedia.comMitchel's website - https://www.mitchellorenstein.com/Mitchel's profile on the Foreign Affairs Magazine - https://www.foreignaffairs.com/authors/mitchell-orensteinReconsider Media on Twitter - https://twitter.com/reconsidermediaReconsider Media on Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/ReConsiderMedia/Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Time in Kyiv: 9am, Tues, Sep 13th.Kharkiv Oblast is free.Zelenksy announced about 6 weeks ago that a major counter-offensive in the South would take place. After a month of attacking bridges, rail depots, ammunition depots, C&C, bases, etc etc etc, the offensive started in earnest. 2 weeks in, they haven't gotten a ton of territory back.But, as all of us paying attention know, the Southern offensive may have been the greatest diversion in warfare since WWII itself. Over the last week, Ukraine launched the most dazzling counter-blitzkrieg I can think of. We're going to go over all of that in its glorious detail here. There's so, so, so much we don't know. Lots of opsec, lots intentionally hidden from the public. What I can say with certainty is there will be many a movie made about this in Hollywood -- this is one of the great moments in military and geopolitical history, period. It is very, very likely the tide of the war has turned, and for good. David is now on top of Goliath, pummeling him.Please excuse the sound. I wasn't planning to record while on break here but I just couldn't help it. I don't have my mic!Connect with Mark Russian History on Facebook Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mark Schauss is the host of Russian Rulers History and Battle Ground History. Known for being heavily well-versed with the history of Russia, Mark Schauss joins us in today's episode to talk about the Russian history in its most authentic form. Mark shares everything from Russia's first invasion to how all these historic events reflect on how Russia moves socio-politically in today's world. Join the ReConsider PatreonTopics Covered What made mark start his podcast and how it's currently going. The history of the first invasion and the second invasion of Russia. The geography of Russia and why it's easy to invade Russia but why it's difficult to stay. How Russia was able to balance European powers and how they were able to to set up alliances to protect their borders. Mark shares all about the Napolean and Crimean war.The casualties of the Russian Civil War. The transition period between 1917 to the World War 2. How Russia came back from the 2nd World War as a superpower country. Connect with Mark Russian History on Facebook Resources Mentioned Russian Rulers PodcastRussian Rulers HistorySupport this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. Our GDPR privacy policy was updated on August 8, 2022. Visit acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hot UpdatesSeverodonetsk fell slowly as expected, but then Lysychansk fell quickly because Russian troops surrounded it, and Ukrainian troops had to retreat rather than be destroyed. It's possible the Ukrainians were out-gamed by Russian mid-level commanders.So far, Russians have not been able to break out of Donetsk city -- that part of the original Feb 24 defense line is holdingRussia appears to have deployed nearly 100% of its conventional combat capabilities to Ukraine, and is still getting clobbered.https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/25/ukraine-russia-balance-of-forces/ Russia is trying to recruit “volunteer” regiments to deploy in Ukraine to relieve Russian troops -- they will be low quality, and so their use would be to hang tight in certain areas and try to pin down Ukrainian units. Not useless, but not super useful.Once again we have returned to slow movement along the front lines now that Severodonetsk and Lysychansk fell. Ukrainians fell back to the 2nd of 3 highly defensible urban areas in Donetsk oblast, with Siversk and Bakhmut the big towns there. Bakhmut is under a lot of pressure; Russians are trying to surround it, but so far to no avail.Russians attempting to attack directly on those two towns, but also continuing to try the end-around from Izium toward Sloviansk to try to create a pocket that can be cut off. So far it's really not working. It looks like Russia might be deprioritizing that angle as of July 31.WHAT IS HIMARS? WHY DOES IT MATTER?Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. Our GDPR privacy policy was updated on August 8, 2022. Visit acast.com/privacy for more information.

Lots of ways we can split this. Much has been discussed about decoupling of wages from productivity. Also note we are absolutely not going to get into 2022. But it's clear the price increases since the pandemic (due to supply shortages, super aggressive monetary policy, gasoline ,and other drivers of inflation) are really eating into real wages.See the full show notes at ReconsiderMedia.comJoin the ReConsider PatreonSupport this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

OR, a tale of ups and downsLots of things seem to be getting worse, at least if you read the internet everThis is not an episode to say, “nothing is getting worse,” but that what you hear about is probably not very correlated with what's going on.I'm leaving abortion out of this because honestly I can't even deal with this shit right now. Major problem with talking about trends: how long are we talking here? A lot of stuff goes up and down. If you just look at this year and extrapolate, then the stock market trends down, which it obviously doesn't. So we'll do our best, I'm focusing on the current adult generation (Millennials/GenX), but keep all that in mind.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

UpdatesSituation in SeverodonetskHUGE numbers of troops from both sidesArtillery war“Road of life” from Bakhmut to Severodonetsk has 1km clearance from Popansa salient and has been a huge fight -- if it goes down, UKR at risk of losing >10k troops in that pocketAmmo situationUkraine out of Soviet ammo; now fully on NATO100% dependent on Western shipments Would have literally run out of ammo without that support -- possible insight into why Russia thought it could win DonbassUKR National Guard troops who are basically there to eat shells and prevent a breakout are losing moraleRussia has blown up the bridge between Severdonetsk and Lysychansk -- this is a major problem for the troops in Severodonetsk, but they could in theory make a river crossing“US General says Elon Musk's Starlink has totally destroyed Russia's information campaign” UKR seriously needs more heavy guns -- especially artillery. Losing 100-200 troops/day (to death; likely 500/day to wounds), mostly to artilleryOVERALL:Game's far from over, as it turns out. Ukraine could totally win, Russia could totally win.My past assessments didn't take ammo into account. Turns out the Russians just have a ton of old ammo they're willing to use indiscriminately. Ukrainians are low on it.Ukraine has the will and skill and people to win if it's supplied.The crazy situation and bold strategy in East DonbassZelensky correctly called that Russia was so obsessed with getting a symbolic victory in completing the “liberation” of the Luhansk oblast, that it would pour everything into urban warfare to pull it off. Putin has his own obsessions, but also has to demonstrate progress on the current stated aims of the war -- liberation of those two provinces. So they're throwing everything they can at Severodonetsk.Russia is not good at urban warfare. Most assaults, everywhere, are getting repelled (and when that happens, it means Russia lost a lot of troops, stuff). BUT -- and big BUT here -- Ukraine is out of Soviet ammo. Which means a whole shitload of their artillery just went silent. Fully dependent on NATO sending even more, which seems to be a slow thing. And would love to have heavy armor, but NATO is against it. Ukraine has to do an artillery duel with a massive (at least 10:1) disadvantage, trying to use superior intelligence and western radar to precision-target Russian artillery and take it out, bit by bit. Long work, lots of ammo. Need more ammo. Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

First, war update:Mariupol fell after 2.5 months of truly insane holding out. Gosh dang. 1900 surrendered and there is a POW complication that I”m not going to get intoUkraine has mostly booted Russia out of Kharkiv, though there is still some fighting and the Russians have not given it up entirely the way they did Kyiv/Sumy/etc, so there's no obvious way to free up those troops for UkraineRussians trying really hard to cross the Siversky Donets river by pontoon, in order to encircle Ukraine's core defense force in the Donbass (largely around a city called Severodonetsk and one called Lysychansk). It seems at least twice the Ukrainians knocked out entire BTGs trying to make that crossing, which is incredible.https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1528116469619367940Apparently Russia is generally short of pontoon type equipment…but Russia has a breakout of sorts, actually right in the northern part of the original Donbass battle lines, through a town called Popansa. TONS of troops moving through thereIt's both a breakout……and a salient, which means significant risk for them. Somewhat exposed.Ukrainians are pretty good at mobile defenseJust not at all clear if they are running in open space (and just taking time to stage properly) or if they are running against really significant resistance at this pointThe original breakthrough at Izium seems to have stalled entirelyRussian troops also massed on the western side of the Siversky Donets (the northern part) to prevent the Ukrainian counter-attack there from threatening the supply lines and etc to Izium -- if that happened it'd be a total disaster(Ukrainians had temporarily broken across the river but had to withdraw)Russian tactics seem to be: just unload with artillery for days and days, then attempt an assaultUsually failBut rinse, lather, repeat, and you get some breakthroughsRussians seem to be planning to do this in the south, north of KhersonRussia may be running out of dronesWill hurt reconDomestic manufacturing capacity limited so they can't build ‘emThings are moving SLOW, and will continue to do so IF the Popansa breakthrough is containedOK so how does this end?Well here's where Russia blew it big time.The Ukrainians believe they can win.Russians could have had a settlement where they get Donbass and likely even Crimea as concessions. Now the Ukrainians believe they can win, and want to win.Ukrainians are also just full of morale, manpower, and money.-Zelenskyy says 700k soldiers now fighting for Ukraine -- 3x those of Russia. Can definitely win a war of attrition-Ukraine just got $40B promised from the US, and the G7 promised another $38BRussia on the other hand is having trouble manufacturing new weapons, and is losing tons of money from sanctions and withdrawals -- 45% of its GDP was made up from sales and operations from the companies that left Russia (which doesn't, I think, mean a 45% GDP contraction, but it means a lot). So there's just an economic slowdown generally, and a lack of ability to manufacture advanced weapons.Russia depends more and more on tube artillery, so it's just blasting the Donbass to hell.And for Russia?See the full notes at ReconsiderMedia.comSupport this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

What happens when you start really believing your own bullshit?What happens when you've created a yes-man bubble where everyone only tells you what you want to hear?First a war update:Russia's focus on the east and Donbass, which started a month ago, has made a bit of progress in a few places, but is now pretty stalledThey do seem to be regrouping from Mariupol, but they've also been going into a meat-grinderUkraine has made marginal advances towards Kherson and away from KharkivSOMEHOW, Mariupol's troops still stand in the Azovstal steel plant despite months of constant bombings and stormings -- there's really nothing like it in modern military history (Alamo has absolutely nothing on it, not even a tiny bit close)It REALLY seems like the vast majority of Russian attempts to advance are getting repelled, and that is going to grind them down and make them combat-ineffective…and now Ukraine is getting tons of heavy weapons:TanksBig, advanced howitzersRadar systems to aim at Russian artilleryRocket artilleryDronesThis is going to help them dislodge low-morale Russian troops and drive offensivesVisit ReConsiderMedia.comSupport this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

The Russians are hoping to encircle Ukraine's defensive lines in the Donbass. If they do, they might be able to declare victory. The Ukrainians are racing east, not only to defend their territory, but might just also be able to counter-attack.Let's break it down.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

So much has changed over the past month -- Ukraine is on the offensive. Kyiv is safe. The war moves east. Air superiority actually matters more than ever.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

On this episode, Erik interviews Lindsay Graham of American History Tellers and History Daily. They talk about the similarities and differences between today's political and economic climate and that of the Civil War and the Gilded Age.Support ReConsider on PatreonSupport this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

The war should have been short and decisive. And as it drags out, Russia looks ever-more inept. What's wrong with its military? What's wrong with its chain of command? Will its economy collapse? Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

While this war is far from over... well, it's far from over! And nobody expected that. In this episode we talk about why Ukraine is winning, what it could mean for Russia and the world if they do win, and how warfare is changing as we watch it unfold.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Erik explains why Russia is invading Ukraine, what their war aims are, what the West is doing, how geopolitics plays into all of this, and a little bit of what might happen next. Get a little sanity of clarity amidst the livestream chaos.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

"Another cause which kept the plebeians in as state of poverty was the unjust distribution of the public land (ager publicus) which had been acquired in war..."William C. Morey, Outline of Roman HistoryThe Optimates:Represented the Elites in the run-up to, and the middle of, the Roman Civil WarsBelieve the mob wasn't really fit to rule, wanted to rule for themAlso represented special interests who benefited personally from a lot of laws that led to unsustainable economic conditions -- such as the (not) Lex Agraria(Lex Agraria: redistribution due to the landlessness of soldiers during the Punic Wars)Who are the Optimates Today?We might think they're just the rich, or megacorporations (or sometimes, lobbyists). Those are certainly Optimates, but we forget that those with Special Interests are everywhere.See the full show notes at ReConsider MediaSupport the show by becoming a PatronSupport this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Antiwork had a really bad daySource Article“Laziness is a virtue in this society” - r/antiwork moderatorhttps://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20220126-the-rise-of-the-anti-work-movement“Supporters of the anti-work movement believe people should self-organise and labour only as much as needed, rather than working longer hours to create excess capital or goods.”USA is a tough crowd for this kind of pitch. See: bad branding.What does Antiwork stand for?Many people tried to give Erik the answer… and many were different-Worker's rights / labor unions-Economic inequality-Surplus Value-Same standard of living for fewer hours-4-day week-Abolishing capitalism-etcAntiwork freaks outhttps://www.reddit.com/r/antiwork/comments/se7b86/how_do_you_fuck_up_this_bad/https://www.reddit.com/r/antiwork/comments/se59eu/can_be_overworked_to_exhaustion_if_you_sleep_on/ https://www.reddit.com/r/antiwork/comments/se4gfp/based_af/ https://www.reddit.com/r/antiwork/comments/se418m/i_didnt_think_this_sub_was_literally_antiwork/ https://www.reddit.com/r/antiwork/comments/se4nf9/mods_are_trash/ https://www.reddit.com/r/antiwork/comments/se5cit/im_glad_the_21_year_old_mod_has_the_funds_to_be/ https://www.reddit.com/r/antiwork/comments/se3v15/does_anyone_think_we_would_better_off_with_a/ An interesting conversation with my friend AustinYou have to stand for something if you want a movement… not just againstSee: Civil RightsSee: Gay MarriageSee: Women's SuffrageOther problems:Tea party rise-and-fallOccupy Wall StreetBLMThis applies to our Revolutions episode, too -- being against something is only a short-term uniter.Join the ReConsider PatreonSupport this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Help Keep ReConsider Independent by joining our PatreonSupport this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Today we talk about something I've reconsidered lately: AntiworkLeave Erik a Tip to Support the ShowJoin the ReConsider PatreonErik's initial take-labor organization and rights are a great thing-Not putting up with crappy work conditions, and forcing companies to compete, is a great thing (and this is my opinion as an employer)-saying “I want stuff - someone has to make it- and I don't want to work in exchange” seems crazy-”Ending work,” part of the motto, is very explicitly about not working, even though antiworkers will sometimes say they're not actually about that. At the very least it's terrible marketing.What do they say the're about?"A lot of people mistake antiwork for being lazy, and like nothing has to ever get done," one moderator of the subreddit, who goes by u/rockcellist, told Business Insider. "But the truth of the matter about antiwork — and everything surrounding it — is that obviously things have to get done, but the current structure in which things get done and the way that capital flows as they get done is unfair and should be nonexistent." Many posts are about pushing back against, or at least calling out, what seem like unfair or ridiculous practices by companies/management…..but others get really weird. #3 post all time is a disgruntled employee, telling one side of the job, who went and deleted thousands of hours of work they did (they happened to still have access).Erik sees…Again among some stuff about labor organization, work standards, sharing some amazingly awful stuff that employers and managers have done, sharing pay rates, tips to negotiate, other stuff that actually seems pretty good:The sense that money isn't earned - it's just this ritual/token task you have to do to be allowed to live/surviveThe sense that suckering a company to get paid to do nothing is good40 hours is way too much workSo this doesn't fit with my own model or experience or biases.Read the full show notes at ReConsiderMedia.comGet the show notes emailed to you when you subscribe to our newsletter.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Two kinds of revolutions:Throwing off an external oppressorOften violent, sometimes notForcing regime change in your own country through extra-political or violent meansLargely violentLargely nonviolentThe outcomes tend to be very different.(Focusing on outcomes where they win -- turns out most revolutions fail militarily)Those throwing off an outsider tend to work out pretty well!US revolutionSpanish-American independenceHaitian slave revolt (note unlike many slave revolts, the Haitians were the natives)Indian revolution (mostly)Greek & Balkan revolutions, generally the revolutions of Nationalism of the 19th centuryGenerally the anticolonial revolutionsThose forcing internal change through violence tend to lead to brutal dictatorshipsRussian revolutionFrench revolutionChinese revolutionEnglish revolutionCuban revolutionIranian revolutionRoman Republic revolutions / civil warsGENERALLY:-Kicking people out works out pretty well-Civil wars don't: they lead to dictatorshipsOK why?-Kicking people out: you use tribalism to your advantageYour people are united against an outsiderOnce it's over, the outsiders can generally leave-Regime change: tribalism works against youYour people are divided because you're using violence to create winners and losersOnce it's over, the defeated folks stick around (see: the Iraq war and the Baath party)But there's a second bit: When you have an internal revolution, you're using violence not just against the current system, but at the very idea of legitimacy of any given system. You set a precedent: if I don't like it, I can use violence to change it.Any regime, or system of government, relies on legitimacy. Building that legitimacy is hard. Lots of people study this. It usually relies on traditions, taught and shared belief systems, propaganda, and enough of a track record that people feel they have some means of getting their needs met through the system some reasonable amount of the time.So you end up reverting to using raw power, secret police, fear, etc. You don't have unity or legitimacy so you can only resort to violence.When that doesn't work, you end up losing the revolution and either the old regime comes back pretty quickly (English revolution) or you have ongoing violent anarchy where everyone is getting beheaded, including the children of the revolution, until a strongman comes in and restores order and people are generally OK with this (French, Roman Republic revolutions)See: Machiavelli's PrinceWe must be wary in our own democracies of escalating rhetoric and actions that chip away at the legitimacy of the liberal system. Liberal systems are designed to solve problems through a process: when you eschew that process to get what you need, you erode that legitimacy and bring about its downfall, and what's going to come next will be ugly.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Become a Patreon and Support ReConsider!This is probably going to get me a lot of flak but I realized that I'd be shying away from a commitment to challenge how we think about stuff if I didn't talk about this out of fear.Disclaimer:I actually have a very underdeveloped political position on transgenderism and generally just stay out of it, the way I do about abortiton (but for different reasons--with abortion I am just morally conflicted), and I tend to default to, “you do you” and thus away from restrictions on what people can do with their genderI have a number of delightful friends who are trans and my emotional position is that I feel very supportive and loving of them and their transition seems to “make sense” to my gut in some deep way that being transracial doesn't really seem to make quite so much sense… but I couldn't explain to a martian why I think this.The way we argue about trans stuff is totally unproductive and drives me battyConfession: I cannot for the life of me understand why being transgender is totally a real thing that is 100% cool and being transracial or transethnic is totally not a real thing and is 0% cool. I have honestly put years of thought into this and talked with a ton of people about it (both people who feel like they have a good answer to the difference and those that don't) and I have gotten NOWHERE.But I want to do better than just throwing up my hands, I want to provide my own framework of thought here.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Thank you thank you for patrons! With some new marketing spending we are a little behind on monthly expenses so I am going to try to crank out another episode… and also hope we can get a few more folks to pitch in.I think a lot of the societal breakdown we are seeing is a matter of human psychology -- designed for pre-historical humans by evolution -- running up against technology that it can't handle and goes kindof crazy trying to confront.-This is probably why social media is so harmful for teenagers -- social dynamics on steroids that you can't ever really win-Also talked about this a lot with bubbling behavior and learning things from people who look like me rather than people who seem smart-I think one form - social shaming - is leading to an unintended acceleration of radicalization -second date update-"nice guy" problem - creeper, followed home-whole studio trying to tell him he was wrong and is being horrible -he grows more hostile and calls the women all sorts of terrible names-i talk with my lady and we realize this guy is going to get worse / go down a bad rabbit hole -why can't he learn? Why does he think he is the hero and all these other people are all out to get him?-social pressure failed and he is gonna go full mysoginy / incel and might hurt people -realized this is happening a lot. Mostly left to right: trying to shame people for all sorts of stuff such as not wearing masks to not getting on board with the current progressive social agenda item -using social shaming to enforce behavior works... Conditionally -- and we misuse it -running the gauntlet-medieval Europe punishment for adultery -about a group with norms enforcing them -very ape like behavior-chimp banana pyramid hose example-evolutionary - a survival mechanism -pre industrial revolution this was all you needed - works very well when stuck with your group-pre internet this worked pretty well (more mobility)-post internet you can just move and choose a new group -i think this is how / why people go down weird rabbit holes and join groups that believe in conspiracy or get racist or join na online woke mob -they get shamed for having and voicing thoughts that the group disapproves of: this is an instinctual strategy-in the past they would conform or be an outcast-now they just move to where they are accepted-humana crave acceptance so they will find a group where they are reinforced and stay there -this reinforcing means a mega bubble and lack of outside conversation or any real discussion -fracturing occurs: rather than regression to the mean you have people accelerate toward disparate groups with mutually incompatible realities -we know the rest -in conclusion our ape behavior to use social shame to reinforce norms is backfiring-no idea what the alternative is: write in, especially if you studied a lot of psychology Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

In the 1930s, Fascism was surprisingly popular in the US. Then a World War made the word anathema, but wanting a strongman to make everything better for us is getting more popular. Believe in our liberal institutions is in decline. Are we getting more tolerant of totalitarianism?Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Social market dynamics are driving the ever-greater fracturing of public discourse. Can it be pulled back together? In this episode Erik finishes his series with the MIT Enterprise Forum on media technology and political polarization.Check out the show notes for the original slide deck at http://www.reconsidermedia.comSupport this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

In this episode, Erik expands substantially on work from Wedged, talking about how media technology, now and in the past, contributes to (or doesn't contribute to) political polarization.Check out the show notes at http://www.reconsidermedia.com for the slide deck! Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

In the words of the legendary Terry Pratchett, in the Discworld novel The Truth:“A lie can get halfway around the world before the truth has had a chance to get its boots on.”Or from one of my favorite bands, The Protomen in their song, “The Hounds”:“When I say he was a monsterWhen I set fire to his nameIt does not matter where you hear it fromWhether truth or lies, it gets said all the sameBecome a ReConsider Patron…Whatever's on the table plays!”Volume biasI've been on a kick recently about a propensity for us to misunderstand or misrepresent people who aren't in our tribe. And how BS gets amplified.In “How to casually radicalize a citizen,” we talked about how people with less-than-awesome intent can easily (and do) create a stream of the worst of the opposition. You can see this and then get a bit radicalized yourself, as we see.But this is happening passively, too. I call it VOLUME BIAS.Shout-out to...Bob NelsonClint LohseElianTheWitchDXXXVIIISUMMARY:-More partisan positions tend to be simpler-Simpler is easier to digest, shorter to say than more nuanced positions-Easier to repeat, too-You'll hear them more often-They naturally get more opportunities to make their massage heardHow I think volume bias works among regular people:More partisan people are both more certain and more passionate about their certainty, because less partisan people are more prone to have nuance and remaining questionsSo partisan people can…State a clearer positionState a shorter positionSay it with deep conviction that less partisan ones can'tMore partisan folks are more likely to attack others, as well, meaning the less partisan folks often get intimidated out of the conversation, tooLess partisan folks are indeed having conversations, but quiet ones - in the kitchen. I'm one of the folks they confess to, all over the political spectrum. They feel they've lost touch with their own party (or vice versa)This becomes a self-reinforcing cycleHow volume bias seems to work in the media and electionsNuance is harder to understand than the more loud/short/simple positionsAnd so, the nuanced stuff will literally be forgotten, it won't catch our attention nearly as muchWe're largely consuming media differently -- getting more individual bits about more things going on in the world, but with less time and focus for each individual thingSo even where the news / politicians are playing more nuanced stuff, you just don't hear it nearly as well, don't digest and retain it nearly as well…...especially if you are not consuming long-form articlesThe resultThere is a bias in what we're exposed to - higher volume stuff is shared moreThere is a bias in what we digest and remember - it's like we have a high-pass filter for anything that's not loud/simple enoughSo we only really get very loud versions of what our team believes and what the other team believes…...these loud versions are the most partisan, certain, and simpleThrough highly repeated exposure we start to lose our own ability to remember that there can be nuance in our own team's positions, much less the other team'sExamples:The vaccine itself - how it works, why it's safeTrump's great at it: “I'm gonna build a big, beautiful wall” “I'll end the ISIS war in 100 days”The fact that both of these were ridiculous took more time to explain, so it was harder to convince people“The election was stolen”INITIATIVEIs huge.Generally accusations and affirmative positions, once stated, if they are attractive, require far, far more energy to refute than they were to spread in the first place. Volume Bias Likely Helped Trump Get ElectedTrump predicted news ratings would take a hit when he was no longer presidentHe was rightThe guy was very loud, and people listened whether they loved or hated him(The fact that news ratings dropped without him is a key case study - it's our own reading/listening behaviors that drive the volume bias)Trump not only got a lot of free airtime…...but the typical “sparring debate” cable news shows had a democrat and a pro-Trump republican because having agreement is not loudu and therefore BORINGHow was this prevented in the past? Are we doomed?Demagogues did pop up! And, lo and behold, they had very simple messages that could be repeated easily. Greece and Rome, 20th century Europe, etc, all come to mind. There is always space in a fairly free society for Charlatans.HOWEVER, the big thing in parts of the past was clearinghouse that had the technological and economic power to constrain what got volume, and the incentives to do so.And generally I think there is a trend of technology between fracturing and consolidation of power over messaging volume. We are in an incredibly fractured state now. I gave a few talks at MIT's Enterprise Forum about just this, and in making this episode I just now decided to go get those onto the podcast for y'all, so stay tunedSupport this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

What are you willing to forgive in the heroes of your story? Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Agenda:Weren't nukes good for global stability? The idea of Mutually Assured DestructionGame Theory and the First Strike problem of most nuclear weaponsThe Dr. Strangelove scenarioWere there close calls? Yes, here are all of themAlso, the broken arrow problemCan you actually get rid of nukes? Probably not…....but can you get rid of the first strike problem? Probably!The magic of stealth boomer submarinesFmr. SecDef William J Perry's modest proposalHow would you get this done? Who do you lobby?https://www.wjperryproject.org/ Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

I finally managed to get a bunch of patrons to send me questions. Many who are eligible have still sent none, so I'm going to be doing another soon!Some GREAT questions came in this time! Enjoy! Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Do you ever feel like your political opposition is talking right past you? As if you are having two entirely different conversations?You might be working with COMPETING FRAMES. Come learn how those work - and how to win. Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

How does the United States escape spiraling political polarization? Waiting for a hero may not work. The cause of polarization is structural; the solution must be, too. Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

In an age of sensationalism and hyperbole for political points, words like 'insurrection' and 'coup' might make us numb. but let's dig deeper. Was the Jan 6th Capitol Riot an "Insurrection?"(Note: this episode long delayed due to potential threats to the hosts' welfare, but we're finally releasing it!) Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

If Trump had just decided to stay in power (and managed it), if Democracy had failed, might you have stormed the capitol? What does belief drives us to do? Do we, too, operate on false premises? Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

If I could convince you to spend two hours per day on certain Subreddits or other internet forums, I could probably make you a radical of any stripe I want. Knowing how this process works is the only way to avoid it. Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

BTC is over $60k!? GME hit $300!? Inverted Yield Curve!? What the heck is going on? Dr. Jake Meyer returns to help us try to make... _any_ sense of this. Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Weird people are moving to my neighborhood, rent is going up, and I'm not happy about it! Am I protesting gentrification, or immigration? Am I upset about both, or only one? And why? Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Yes, I'll be speaking again, and yes, again, it will be awesome.Get your tickets with the discount code "reconsider" for all-day awesomeness, straight to your living room.https://www.intelligentspeechconference.com/product/intelligent-speech-spring-2021/ Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

It's happened before, and under similar stresses: American parties have shattered into splinter groups, and the ensuing land grab has led to deep realignments, and even the end of American parties. What causes these realignments, and could they happen today? Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Long before the capitol riots, a few good people began working on a documentary about the best Americans working to bridge our yawning divide. They created a movie: The Reunited States.Erik asks them hard questions--not about the movie, but about America. Can we walk backwards... or somehow go forward? Three amazing Americans who have spent the last few years devoting themselves to bridging the divide answer Erik's tough questions about what next comes for a bruised and battered nation. Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Richard Hanania returns to speculate with Erik about how Congress, Silicon Valley, the Republican Party, and the nation as a whole will change after the Capitol Riots. Will our DNA change in the same way that it changed after 9/11?As usual, prepare for Erik and Richard to disagree fiercely :) Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Historian Mike Duncan makes a compelling case that a breakdown of the political rules of the game--mos maiorum--drove the downfall of the Roman Republic. How much is America's breakdown of political norms and cohesion like that of the Roman Republic? How do we avoid our own Civil Wars and Rubicon? Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

This Christmas is like no other. Millions of Americans traveled and unsafely visited family during Thanksgiving, leading to countless super spreader events that are killing thousands, needlessly, right now. Tomorrow, Christmas, is a critical day, and we all have an important ethical decision to make. Stay home, save other people's lives, and try to encourage as many others to do the same in whatever language they're familiar with. Acting in a way that conforms with our own moral principles will be ensure that we do not take actions that will haunt us for the rest of our lives. Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

If 2020 has demonstrated anything, it is that geopolitical services are no longer a luxury. Like legal or accounting services, geopolitical services are crucial for businesses with global exposure in the unstable years ahead. You wouldn’t do your own accounting...why would you do your political risk?Perch Perspectives was built to serve clients with international exposure, whether agribusiness, energy, financial, technology, or supply chain. Perch's mission is simple: give clients the geopolitical perspective they need to understand their operating environments and the power to influence their global business. Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

There is an astounding amount of BS surrounding COVID-19. In part because of that, we have nearly 300k Americans dead, and more to come. In this episode, Xander and Erik arm you with what you need to convince anti-maskers to get with the program. Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

OK so Biden won, taking back PA, WI, MI, and flipping AZ blue for the first time since 1996 and GA blue for the first time since 1992. So this is a slightly different map than we’ve seen in a long time. FL and OH used to be THE states (remember 2000 and 2004?), and they both went solidly red this year and it just didn’t matter at all. In the 2000’s and 2010’s we also talked about CO, NM, and VA being at least in play, and those days are over. US voting patterns are changing and we’re going to talk a bit about why. There were some big surprises, and we're going to talk about them! Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Azerbaijan and Armenia are at war, over a strip of land with fewer than 150,000 people in it. This seems like the tiniest of conflicts... but it has real risk of erupting into a massive regional conflict. When does spilled blood get worked out, and when does it spiral out of control? We discuss this key question using history and geopolitics through the lens of this conflict in the Caucuses. Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

You just heard Roifield and Erik talk about the 2020 election, which will change US history forever. You might not know that in addition to MidAtlantic, Roifield hosts 10 American Presidents, an audio documentary on leaders who changed the country and the world. This quick trailer introduces Roifield's series on Ronald Reagan, as the 40th anniversary of his election approaches. Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

The American political bubbles are now made of steel; we share fake news that reinforces our beliefs, and reject realities that don't conform with them. Is there any hope? We dive into the history of media technology for a glimmer of hope. Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

We talk about the President’s suggestions that he might not respect the outcome of the election, and his team’s efforts to prepare some states to award him delegates, even if he loses the state... and how that could play out.We’ll discuss what the endgame could look like between Nov 3 and January, and try not to speculate too much on what the outcome is likely to be. Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

What happens after Trump (almost certainly) loses the election? How does the US begin to heal its divides? How do the Republicans bounce back from a (likely) thrashing?Roifield Brown, host of the MidAtlantic podcast, joins Erik to talk about changes in American attitudes and demographics, as well as the ongoing challenges the US will face as confidence in our democratic institutions sits at a historic low. Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/reconsiderpodcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.