Podcasts about inverted yield curve

Abe Ashton explains the Inverted Yield Curve and what it means regarding your retirement future. As the founder of Ashton and Associates, Abe Ashton has more than 20 years of financial planning experience helping thousands of families in Utah, Nevada, and across the country retire with confidence. Abe’s mission is to provide client-focused education and solutions to seniors and retirees, that help them achieve the retirement they’ve worked so hard for. To get more information on Ashton & Associates, or to schedule a consultation call, 435-688-9500 or visit AshtonWealth.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rah Shah and Rick Borek explain the Inverted Yield curve and whether we should worried or not about what it indicates. For more information or to schedule a consultation with SC Wealth Advisors visit: scwealthadvisors.com Raj Shah and Rick Borek focus on wealth management, retirement planning, personal finance, taxes, estate planning and so much more. Combined, Raj and Rick have over 55 years of financial planning experience and are eager to help you retire in the most efficient manner. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today in Econ 101, we’re talking yield curve. In a typical economy, the longer a bond’s duration, the more interest it yields. The inverse — shorter duration, higher yields — usually means a recession is coming. We’ve been seeing an inverted yield curve in the U.S. financial system for nearly two years. So, where’s the recession? Also in this episode: Credit card delinquencies hit a 12-year high and we visit U.S. troops preparing for climate change.

Today in Econ 101, we’re talking yield curve. In a typical economy, the longer a bond’s duration, the more interest it yields. The inverse — shorter duration, higher yields — usually means a recession is coming. We’ve been seeing an inverted yield curve in the U.S. financial system for nearly two years. So, where’s the recession? Also in this episode: Credit card delinquencies hit a 12-year high and we visit U.S. troops preparing for climate change.

Historically, every time the yield curve inverts, a recession follows, but don't fret just yet, this could be correlation, not causation. Recession tends to follow when the yield curve reverts back to normal after inversion, rather than during the inversion itself. The Federal Reserve's themselves and their actions have impacted the yield curve over the year and shifts in banking behavior can slow the economy. Changes in economic conditions and market behaviors suggest a potential recession is forthcoming, but don't panic yet, you can't predict the market. Today we discuss...  The inverted yield curve occurs when short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, which is generally considered abnormal. The Fed's recent rate hikes caused the short end of the yield curve to increase sharply, resulting in an inversion. Banks are less likely to lend during periods of an inverted yield curve because lending at a lower rate than they borrow leads to losses. Changes in how money is created may alter the predictive power of the yield curve inversion as a recession indicator. Household allocation to stocks has recently hit an all-time high, indicating extreme market complacency. Fixed income, traditionally seen as a conservative investment, became the worst-performing asset class in 2022 due to interest rate volatility. Many investors may be unaware of their true risk tolerance, having not experienced significant capital loss since the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Risk in investing includes not just losing money but also the loss of time, as shown by the S&P 500's negative performance from 2000 to 2013. Confidence in the American Dream has significantly eroded since 2012, with fewer people believing hard work will lead to success. Credit card defaults are reaching record highs, surpassing previous peaks seen during the dot-com bubble and the financial crisis. U.S. government spending is projected to increase significantly, with 87% allocated to interest expenses, Social Security, and healthcare. Food prices have reached new highs, contributing to financial stress for consumers. The cost of U.S. federal debt interest has skyrocketed, reaching $1.1 trillion annually, or $3 billion per day. There is concern that the Federal Reserve is not truly independent, with its actions influenced by government, banks, and other powerful entities. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/inverted-yield-curve-641  Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

In his 1986 PhD thesis, Campbell Harvey identified the predictive power of the inverted yield curve through four business cycles. With curve inversion correctly foretelling three more recessions since then, investors this cycle have been anticipating an impending downturn ever since the yield curve inverted nearly two years ago. In this episode, we talk with Dr. Campbell Harvey, Professor of Finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University, about the theoretical foundation connecting the inverted yield curve and recessions, whether this cycle could be different, and what it implies for Fed policy.

Join us as we explore the current real estate market, hiring strategies, and economic forecasts! In this episode, we'll cover the Culture Index workshop and how matching personality traits to job roles can increase hiring success from 25% up to 90%. We'll also discuss challenges of a major real estate sponsor, and the impact of foreclosures on the market. Tune in to understand how the inverted yield curve signals economic changes and influences borrowing strategies!Learn more about Lone Star Capital at www.lscre.com To apply to attend LSC Summit 2024: www.lscsummit.comGet a FREE copy of the Passive Investor Guide:https://www.lscre.com/content/passive-investor-guide Subscribe to our newsletter and receive our FREE underwriting model package:https://www.lscre.com/resource/underwriting-modelFollow Rob Beardsley:https://www.linkedin.com/in/rob-beardsley/https://www.facebook.com/RobBeardsleyLSC/Read Rob's articles:https://www.lscre.com/blog 

The conversation covers the topic of the inverted yield curve and its implications for short-term savers and retirement planning. It also discusses the significance of treasuries, sector rotation, and the impact of Warren Buffett's investment strategies. The conversation provides insights into alternative investment vehicles and the importance of portfolio analysis for retirement planning.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An inverted yield curve may make shorter-term bonds more attractive than longer-term bonds. • Learn more at thriventfunds.com • Follow us on LinkedIn • Share feedback and questions with us at podcast@thriventfunds.com • Thrivent Distributors, LLC is a member of FINRA and a subsidiary of Thrivent, the marketing name for Thrivent Financial for Lutherans.

Professor Campbell Harvey, professor of finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University and the inventor of the most famous recession indicator — the inverted yield curve — joins The Julia La Roche Show for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy, the Federal Reserve, and the yield curve.  In this episode, Professor Harvey highlights how the Federal Reserve made things worse in 2023 with its unnecessary rate hikes. According to Professor Harvey, we're fortunate if the economy delivers slow growth this year in spite of the Fed's damaging actions. He argues that the Fed will need to undo the damage they did with immediate rate cuts no smaller than 50 basis points at the next meeting.  Elsewhere, Professor Harvey shares the origin story of the inverted yield curve indicator and it's 8 for 8 track record in predicting economic recessions. Now that we're in the 9th inversion, he shares that it's way too early to call if we're in a false signal. He also makes a case that the inverted yield curve is causing slower economic growth, and that's not necessarily a bad thing because you avoid a deep recession.  Links:  DeFI and the Future of Finance: https://www.amazon.com/DeFi-Future-Finance-Campbell-Harvey/dp/1119836018 https://www.fuqua.duke.edu/faculty/campbell-harvey https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/ https://twitter.com/camharvey 0:00 Intro  1:00 Big picture macro view  1:30 Understanding the current state of the economy and the role of the consumer 5:20 Fed needs to  5:55 The story has to do with the consumer 8:30 Federal Reserve undoing the damage 10:00 Inflation, the false narrative, and policy errors 18:00 Fed rate cuts need to happen immediately  21:27 What would Professor Harvey do differently at the Fed?  23:30 Inverted yield curve indicator origin story 30:00 Difference between long-term rate and short-term rate is highly predictive of economic growth  36:40 8 out of 8 without a false signal  39:00 If Fed undoes the damage it created, there's a good shot of a soft landing 39:30 What do folks get wrong when it comes to the inverted yield curve?  45:00 The inverted yield curve is causing slower economic growth  47:00 Understanding how the inverted yield curve works  49:30 What keeps Professor Harvey up at night? 

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG,. __ So many market participants now regard an inverted yield curve as a harbinger of a recession, due to the indicator's perfect track record of preceding an economic slowdown. Today, Jack interviews the founder of this economic indicator, Campbell R. Harvey. Harvey shares how he discovered this signal in the bond market in the 1980s, and how it has an 8 out 8 track record in preceding recessions (with zero false signal). An inverted yield curve is when short-term interest rates exceed long-term interest rates. Harvey's specific signal on which he wrote his dissertation in 1986 (his thesis advisor was Eugene Fama, Nobel Prize-winning economist) was the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 3-month Treasury yield. It is this indicator which has an 8/8 perfect track record, not the 2s10s (10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year Treasury yield), which as Harvey notes gave a false signal in 1998. Harvey argues that since his 10-year / 3-month signal inverted in the fall of 2022, the first and second quarter of 2024 is when a potential economic slowdown would occur (the average lag between the inversion of the 10-year / 3-month spread is 12 months, but the longest lag is 22 months). However, Harvey notes that there are several positive forces supporting the U.S. economy, such as fiscal stimulus and a strong labor market, as seen by job vacancies in excess of unemployment. While Harvey hopes that these forces can induce a “soft landing,” it is his base case that the 10-year / 3-month inversion will go 9 for 9 in forecasting an economic slowdown. Harvey is Professor of Finance at Duke University's Fuqua School of Business, Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Director of Research and Partner at Research Affiliates, and author of the book “DeFi and the Future of Finance.” Filmed on January 16, 2024. __ Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Visit VanEck.com or call 800-826-2333 to carefully read a prospectus before investing. The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) is distributed by VanEck Securities Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of VanEck Associates Corporation __ Follow Cam Harvey on Twitter https://twitter.com/camharvey?lang=en Cam Harvey on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/camharvey/ Cam Harvey's website https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/ Cam Harvey's Original 1986 Dissertation on Inverted Yield Curve: https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/Research/Thesis/Thesis.pdf Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks' Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (12:07) Early 2023 Harvey Raised Possibility That "This Might Be A False Signal" (18:39) VanEck Ad (19:18) Inverted Curves Go From Predicting Recessions To... Causing Them? (21:04) The Theoretical Support For Why Inverted Yield Curves Precede Recessions (25:18) The Impact Of Expectations of Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy On The Yield Curve (30:52) Factors That Support A Soft Landing: Tight Labor Market and Strong Housing Market (36:44) What About The Chance That There Was Already A Recession In 2022? (42:41) Worries About The Banking System And "A Future Credit Squeeze" (46:05) Fed Should Cut Rates Right Now, Since Shelter Inflation Data Is Extremely Lagging (55:04) Closing Thoughts On Yield Curve __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice.

A bit of a format flip on this episode as Sam and Derek tag team an interview with Jared Dillian, author of the new book No Worries: How to Live a Stress-Free Financial Life. Jared has had quite an interesting background from working at Lehman Brothers during their 2008 collapse to building a successful financial newsletter and podcast. The first half of the episode digs into Jared's thought on the current state of the economny, the effect of an inverted yield curve and his thoughts on the FIRE movement. We then jump into the principles discussed in the book for the second half of the episode. About Jared Dillian: Jared Dillian is the editor of The Daily Dirtnap, a daily market newsletter for investment professionals, continuously published since 2008. He graduated from the United States Coast Guard Academy in 1996 with a B.S. in Mathematics and Computer Science, from the University of San Francisco in 2001 with a Masters in Business Administration, concentration in Finance, and from the Savannah College of Art and Design in 2023 with a Masters in Fine Arts in Writing. Jared worked for a small floor market maker on the Pacific Options Exchange from 1999-2000, and was a trader for Lehman Brothers from 2001 to 2008, specializing in index arbitrage and ETF trading. He is also the author of STREET FREAK: Money And Madness At Lehman Brothers, which was named Businessweek's #1 general business book of 2011, and the novel ALL THE EVIL OF THIS WORLD, published in 2016, THOSE BASTARDS: 69 Essays on Life, Creativity, and Meaning, published in 2023, and NO WORRIES: How To Live a Stress Free Financial Life, to be published in 2024. Additionally, Jared is an adjunct professor in the business program at Coastal Carolina University. Jared is also an investment strategist at Mauldin Economics, and previously contributed to Bloomberg Opinion, Forbes and TheStreet.com. His media appearances include MSNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg TV, BNN, The New York Times, LA Times, Business Insider, Marketwatch, Yahoo! Finance, and dozens of local and syndicated radio programs. He is also the host of The Jared Dillian Show, a nationally syndicated radio show on personal finance. In his spare time, Jared is a progressive house DJ and speaks frequently on mental health issues at financial institutions. Discussed:  Order Jared's New Book No Worries @DailyDirtNap on X/Twitter @JaredDillianMoney on Instagram ILAB 149: Bill Perkins on How To Die with Zero Where we are: Johnny FD – Chiang Mai, Thailand / IG @johnnyfdj Sam Marks - South Carolina, US / IG @sammarks12 Derek – Los Angeles / IG @DerekRadio Sponsor: ILAB PatreonJoin the Invest Like a Boss Patreon now and get tons of bonus content, including additional episodes, full quarterly updates including account screenshots and more for as low as $5/month at Patreon.com/InvestLikeaBoss Time Stamp: 00:30 - Interview with Jared Dillian Begins 05:16 - What's An Inverted Yield Curve? 14:50 - Jared's Thoughts on the FIRE Movement 17:42 - Key Points of the Book 34:34 - Sam & Derek Wrap Up & Recap If you enjoyed this episode, do us a favor and share it! If you haven't already, please take a minute to leave us a 5-star review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Copyright 2024. All rights reserved. Read our disclaimer here.

On a recent installment of the Pynx debate series, Bob had a friendly debate with Dean Baker on a soft or hard landing in 2024. In this episode of the Human Action Podcast, Bob comments on the key disputes, underlying the differences between the Austrian and Keynesian frameworks. Bob's Debate with Dean Baker: Mises.org/HAP427a Bob's Paper on the Inverted Yield Curve: Mises.org/HAP427b Bob's Mises University Talk on Government Debt: Mises.org/HAP427c   Join Tom DiLorenzo, Joe Salerno, and Patrick Newman in Tampa on February 17: Mises.org/Tampa2024Use code "Action24" for 15% off admission. Human Action Podcast listeners can get a free copy of Murray Rothbard's Anatomy of the State: Mises.org/HAPodFree]]>

For over two decades, MCT has been a leading source of innovation for the mortgage secondary market.  Melding deep subject matter expertise with a passion for emerging technologies and clients, MCT is the de facto leader in innovative mortgage capital markets technology.  MCT's technology and know-how continues to revolutionize how mortgage assets are priced, locked, protected, valued, and exchanged – offering clients the tools to thrive under any market condition. Learn more at mct-trading.com

In this episode, we are joined by Steven Townsend, CFA, and Sarah Harp, CFA, from our Capital Markets team about the November Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, While the meeting did not deliver any big surprises, the US treasury curve has delivered some rare movements. Listen as Steven and Sarah explain shape shifting of curves and what that means going into 2024.

Questions on Protecting Your Wealth with Gold & Silver? Schedule a Strategy Call Here ➡️ https://calendly.com/itmtrading/podcast  or Call 866-349-3310

With Mortgage Rates Moving Higher, And With No End In Sight, What Is A Homebuyer Supposed To Do?We posed this question to Ralph DiBugnara, a Senior VP and Retail Division Leader with Cardinal Financial (https://www.cardinalfinancial.com/loan-originator/ralph-dibugnara/). In addition to that role, Ralph is the Founder of Home Qualified, a digital real estate resource for buyers, sellers, and real estate agents.Ralph is a mortgage banker with an eye on the millennial demographic, and a reputation as a media liaison who is redefining the role of the banker in today's buyer-centric real estate market.One key point that Ralph mentioned during our discussion is that's very important for homebuyers, shellshocked by the quick and severe upward move in mortgage rates, to remember the old adage that you Marry The House, and Date The Rate! Simply, this phrase means that mortgage rates are fluid and will go down at some point in the future when a homeowner can refinance. The house of your dreams, however, may only come along once in a lifetime.We touched on many other topics during this episode, including tools and strategies for current owners, residential builders, and prospective buyers.If you would like to reach Ralph...Call him here: 201.500.9612Email him here: ralph.dibugnara@cardinalfinancial.com________________________________________________Please subscribe to Do You Ever Wonder using the two links below, and don't be shy about sharing the links with your friends.Subscribe to Do You Ever Wonder on YouTube here:  https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzmL4Yaump_9Q7tMSChDoUQSubscribe on your favorite streaming platform here: https://areyouwondering.buzzsprout.com/shareBe Our Guest! Are you interested in appearing as a guest on the Do You Ever Wonder podcast? Let Mike Haltman know at mhaltman@hallmarkabstractllc.com.The Do You Ever Wonder podcast is brought to you by New York title insurance provider Hallmark Abstract Service, and hosted by its CEO Mike Haltman._______________________________________________Hallmark Abstract Service...You Buy Real Estate, We Protect It!Questions about the podcast, NY title insurance, or the RE transaction process? Let Hallmark Abstract Service know at (646) 741-6101 or at info@hallmarkabstractllc.com.

Historically, an inverted yield curve has often preceded economic recessions, and many investment professionals view the current inversion as a troubling sign for what may lie ahead for the US economy.  However, the 10-year US Treasury yield has been lower than the 2-year US Treasury yield for over a year, and a recession has (apparently) not yet begun.  In this episode of the ROI podcast, Ryan and Bill Housey discuss:Is the inverted US Treasury yield curve a broken signal today or is a recession still coming?Are investors too optimistic about “soft landing” (or “no landing”) scenarios for the US economy?What's lies ahead for Fed policy?How should investment professionals think about risk and positioning fixed income portfolios for what lies ahead?Reach us at https://www.ftportfolios.com/Connect with us on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/first-trust/Follow us on 'X' @ftportfolios

In this episode of the Retirement Lifestyle Show, Roshan Loungani and Adrian Nicholson tackle the 2023 recession debate. They look at arguments against and for a recession as well as what the job numbers, manufacturing, and credit can tell us about a possible rich-cession. [00:00] Introduction [01:15] Are We in a Recession Yet? [03:09] What is an Inverted Yield Curve [06:28] Rolling Recession Explained [10:20] Sending and Credit Card Debt [12:04] Arguments Against a Recession [15:16] Talk of a Mild/No Recession at All [17:00] How Labor Typically Responds to Recessions  [19:53] Rich-cession: A New Kind of Recession  [22:19] Arguments for an Upcoming Recession [25:14] The Leading Economic Index [28:31] How Recessions Impact Long-Term Investors [32:05] Parting Thoughts  Roshan can be reached at roshan.loungani@aretewealth.com or at 202-536-4468.  Erik can be reached at erik.olson@aretewealth.com or 815-940-4652. Adrian can be reached at adrian.nicholson@aretewealth.com or at 703-915-8905. Follow Us At: Website: https://retirementlifestyleshow.com/ https://www.retirewithroshan.com https://youtu.be/hKVzI87v0tA https://twitter.com/RoshanLoungani https://www.linkedin.com/in/roshanloungani/ https://www.facebook.com/retirewithroshan/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/financialerik/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/adrian-nicholson-74b82b13b/ #retirementlifestylepodcast #fire #podcast #FI #Retire #retirewithroshan #retirement #investing All opinions expressed by podcast hosts and guests are solely their own. While based on information they believe is reliable, neither Arete Wealth nor its affiliates warrant its completeness or accuracy, nor do their opinions reflect the opinion of Arete Wealth. This podcast is for general informational purposes only and should not be regarded as specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Before making any decisions, consult a professional.

In this week's episode, Mark looks back at the history of the Inverted Yield Curve. While many observers have now dismissed the significance of the yield curve inversion in 2022—and no recession, yet—Mark shows that the history of the IYC may back a completely opposite interpretation. Be sure to follow Minor Issues at Mises.org/MinorIssues.

Henssler Money Talks – July 1, 2023Season 37, Episode 26This week on “Money Talks,” Chief Investment Officer Troy Harmon, CFA, CVA, is joined by Managing Associate D.J. Barker, CWS®, and Associate Peter Lynch to discuss consumer confidence, the final reading of first-quarter GDP, and interest rates. D.J. and Peter discuss Medicare coverage for a stay-at-home spouse who may not have enough work credits to qualify for premium-free Medicare Part A. The financial experts finish the show answering listener's questions on insurance reviews and IRA contributions for servicemembers. Timestamps and Chapters00:00 Market Roundup: Covering June 26 – June 30, 202324:41 Case Study: Medicare for a Stay-at-Home Spouse34:54 Q&A Time: Insurance Reviews and IRA Contributions for Servicemembers Follow Henssler:  Facebook: http://bit.ly/HensslerFacebook  Twitter: http://bit.ly/HensslerTwitter  LinkedIn: http://bit.ly/HensslerLinkedIn  Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hensslerfinancial/YouTube: http://bit.ly/HensslerYouTube   “Money Talks” is brought to you by Henssler Financial. Sign up for the Money Talks Newsletter: https://www.henssler.com/newsletters/  

George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments, says that investors should lean into the currently inverted yield curve and buy bonds for f longer maturities so that they can lock down. High current interest rates before the Federal Reserve decides to cut rates. Bory also notes that he expects the federal government to avoid a true default but explains that a downgrade from ratings agencies won't be the big deal most authorities expect. Plus Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi turns to a small-cap co weed-call fund for his ‘ETFof the Week,'  and Raymond Bridges, portfolio manager of the recently opened Bridges Capital Tactical ETF talks stylized stock investing in the Market Call

Henssler Money Talks – May 13, 2023Season 37, Episode 19This week on “Money Talks,” Chief Investment Officer Troy Harmon, CFA, CVA, is joined by Senior Associate Michael Griffin, CFP®, and Associate Peter Lynch to discuss the April Employment Situation, the Consumer and Producer Price indices, and interest rates. Michael and Peter discuss an investor who wants to direct her significant inheritance to charity by creating a lasting legacy. The experts finish the show by answering a listener's question on whether investors should be concerned about the debt ceiling.Timestamps and Chapters00:00 Market Roundup: Covering May 8 – May 12, 202322:27 Case Study: Turning a Windfall into a Charitable Legacy32:36 Q&A Time: Should we be concerned about the debt ceiling? Follow Henssler:  Facebook: http://bit.ly/HensslerFacebook  Twitter: http://bit.ly/HensslerTwitter  LinkedIn: http://bit.ly/HensslerLinkedIn  Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hensslerfinancial/YouTube: http://bit.ly/HensslerYouTube   “Money Talks” is brought to you by Henssler Financial. Sign up for the Money Talks Newsletter: https://www.henssler.com/newsletters/ 

Dr. Paul Cwik joins Bob to discuss the inverted yield curve's "signal" of an impending recession. Dr. Cwik's dissertation on inverted yield curves and economic downturns: Mises.org/HAP395a Bob on the link between inverted yield curves and recessions: Mises.org/HAP395b Bob's Understanding Money Mechanics: Mises.org/Mechanics

Dr. Paul Cwik joins Bob to discuss the inverted yield curve's "signal" of an impending recession. Dr. Cwik's dissertation on inverted yield curves and economic downturns: Mises.org/HAP395a Bob on the link between inverted yield curves and recessions: Mises.org/HAP395b Bob's Understanding Money Mechanics: Mises.org/Mechanics

Dr. Paul Cwik joins Bob to discuss the inverted yield curve's "signal" of an impending recession. Dr. Cwik's dissertation on inverted yield curves and economic downturns: Mises.org/HAP395a Bob on the link between inverted yield curves and recessions: Mises.org/HAP395b Bob's Understanding Money Mechanics: Mises.org/Mechanics

Dr. Paul Cwik joins Bob to discuss the inverted yield curve's "signal" of an impending recession. Dr. Cwik's dissertation on inverted yield curves and economic downturns: Mises.org/HAP395a Bob on the link between inverted yield curves and recessions: Mises.org/HAP395b Bob's Understanding Money Mechanics: Mises.org/Mechanics

Dr. Paul Cwik joins Bob to discuss the inverted yield curve's "signal" of an impending recession. Dr. Cwik's dissertation on inverted yield curves and economic downturns: Mises.org/HAP395a Bob on the link between inverted yield curves and recessions: Mises.org/HAP395b Bob's Understanding Money Mechanics: Mises.org/Mechanics]]>

SBTV spoke with Charles Nenner, Founder of the Charles Nenner Research Center, about the inverted yield curve's track record at predicting a recession and why Charles Nenner's cycle research indicates a coming recession this year.

Today's podcast is brought to you by SimpleNexus, an nCino company and award-winning developer of mobile-first technology for the modern mortgage lender.Nexus Closing's full menu of closing options -- including traditional, hybrid, and full eClosings -- supports your preferred workflow with single sign-on convenience that makes it possible to close on a home from anywhere.To learn more about Nexus Closing, visit simplenexus.com.

A new study of US banks by DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, identified some ten percent as "challenged" among the selected group of banks, each with assets of over $10 billion. "The rapid shift from a recessionary environment to one heavily influenced by inflation has created serious challenges for many banks, " according to BOVE. "Banks are attempting to adjust to these changes but, in some cases, structural issues at some of these institutitons inhibit their ability to do so." The CONVERSATION also takes another look at the events that triggered the collapse of Silicon Valley and two other banks. BOVE lashes out at bank managers for the latest crisis from their "greed to maximise profits" to their risk management. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, points the blame in part at the Dodd-Frank Act enacted after the global financial crisis to (ironically) curb risk. "These are tense times in the financial markets," BOVE says. Elsewhere, the CONVERSATION looks at the latest dip in the US unemployment rate. While this decline is clearly a positive, a gathering storm may finally be imminent. VAN ALSTYNE says the inverted yield curve is signalling a recession of dramatic scale which could impact Fed decision making. Still, there is some good news in the US manufacturing sector, with signs of green shoots. Joining the CONVERSATION is our host, JOHN AIDAN BYRNE. Questions & Comments: Podcast@OdeonCap.com

There is one indicator that has predicted every recession since 1969, and that indicator is flashing red right now. It's the yield curve. But Mr. Yield Curve himself, Campbell Harvey, explains why this time he thinks his prediction could be wrong. For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.

In this episode Scott Becker discusses the inverted yield curve and what it means.

In this episode Scott Becker discusses the inverted yield curve and what it means.

Join Chris Kaminski & Hao Dang as they discuss the Fed's recent rate hike of 0.25%, a new term for all of us "Disinflation," how the M2 money supply is shrinking (and what that means), and how inverted yield curves lead to recessions, right?To learn more about us or stay in the loop, visit www.consiliowealth.comwww.consiliowealth.com/disclosures Submit a question at team@consiliowealth.com 

The President has had his challenges--but, according to Trish Regan, the worst of it hasn't hit us. An inverted yield curve is signaling major challenges ahead. In today's show, Trish walks us through the economic disaster that looms in 2023.  Today's links and sponsors: https://TrishIntel.com https://LegacyPMInvestments.com (call 1-866-589-0560) https://AMAC.UC/Regan https://RuffGreens.com  Support the show: https://trishregan.store/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode Scott discusses the inverted yield curve and what it means.

Photo: No known restrictions on publication. @Batchelorshow #LondonCalling:  The inverted yield curve predicts. @JosephSternberg @WSJOpinion https://www.wsj.com/articles/yield-curve-inversion-reaches-new-extremes-11669687278

Why is everyone talking about the inverted yield curve, and what does it mean? In this episode we take a deep dive into how bonds work and why their prices signal future recessions. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For this week's episode, I am happy to share Avison Young's 3rd Quarter 2022 State of the Market for New York City. Even if you invest outside this market, I know you will get value out of this episode. We discuss the decline in sales volume and values (with a few exceptions). There has been a shift in institutional demand to residential over office. I will cover what would be needed to convert office to residential which could be a big answer to this challenge.  That being said, we will also look at data that shows that the return to office has not been uniform across various cities. There are huge variations based on submarket, industry, and tenancy. Brent Glodowski, who heads our retail sales group, will then discuss the opportunities that exist in this segment of the market.  He will cover how rising interest rates have pushed cap rates up and why 1031 buyers are the best in the market today. Then Scott Singer, our Co-Lead of Tri-State Debt & Equity Finance, will talk about the debt markets and what to look out for the future. He will answer the question of if you should refinance now. He will also compare this cycles to the past to see if we can glean any wisdom. Finally, he will speak about how the Inverted Yield Curve could actually be a surprising opportunity for borrowers To follow along with the discussion please use this link: https://acrobat.adobe.com/link/review?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:290402e6-1837-321f-a816-469c057d815a

The current yield on a one-year U.S.Treasury bond is 4%. But the yield on a ten-year Treasury bond is only…3.5%.  Why is this? What does it mean for retirement savers? And how should investors respond? That's what I'm tackling today on the show! *** ✏️  Grab the Episode Show Notes

We discuss Boris Johnson, vaccines, the Border, and more Our Guests Are: Steve Cortes, Christine Anderson, Ben Harnwell, Michael Yon, Russ Vought Stay ahead of the censors - Join us warroom.org/join Aired On: 7/06/2022 Watch:On the Web: http://www.warroom.orgOn Gettr: @WarRoomOn Podcast: http://warroom.ctcin.bioOn TV: PlutoTV Channel 240, Dish Channel 219, Roku, Apple TV, FireTV or on https://AmericasVoice.news. #news #politics #realnews

We discuss the fed, Europe, EPA, SCOTUS, and more. Our Guests Are: Ben Harnwell, Peter Navarro, Michael Yon, Jim Marchant, Mike Davis Stay ahead of the censors - Join us warroom.org/join Aired On: 7/05/2022 Watch: On the Web: http://www.warroom.org On Gettr: @WarRoom On Podcast: http://warroom.ctcin.bio On TV: PlutoTV Channel 240, Dish Channel 219, Roku, Apple TV, FireTV or on https://AmericasVoice.news. #news #politics #realnews

We discuss the fed, Europe, EPA, SCOTUS, and more.  Our Guests Are: Ben Harnwell, Peter Navarro, Michael Yon, Jim Marchant, Mike Davis Stay ahead of the censors - Join us warroom.org/join Aired On: 7/05/2022 Watch: On the Web: http://www.warroom.org On Gettr: @WarRoom On Podcast: http://warroom.ctcin.bio On TV: PlutoTV Channel 240, Dish Channel 219, Roku, Apple TV, FireTV or on https://AmericasVoice.news. #news #politics #realnews 

We discuss the fed, Europe, EPA, SCOTUS, and more.  Our Guests Are: Ben Harnwell, Peter Navarro, Michael Yon, Jim Marchant, Mike Davis Stay ahead of the censors - Join us warroom.org/join Aired On: 7/05/2022 Watch: On the Web: http://www.warroom.org On Gettr: @WarRoom On Podcast: http://warroom.ctcin.bio On TV: PlutoTV Channel 240, Dish Channel 219, Roku, Apple TV, FireTV or on https://AmericasVoice.news. #news #politics #realnews 

In today's episode, I break down Bitcoin On-Chain Analytics. I'm usually joined by WiIl Clemente on Saturdays to discuss his research through articulating his weekly newsletter. Unfortunately, Will was unable to join us this week. Instead, I go through the Blockware Newsletter to help you understand how Bitcoin compared to other assets, how Luna is Bitcoin's current whale in the market, and how Bitcoin's price relates to the recent Inverted Yield Curve. To see the video with the corresponding charts that I reference throughout the interview, go to the Anthony Pompliano YouTube Channel ======================= Today's episode is brought to you by Coinbase Wallet, your key to the world of crypto. Crypto wasn't made to just buy, sell, and hodl. With Coinbase Wallet, you can do so much more: Collect more NFTs, earn more with DeFi, and trade more than 4,000 tokens. Whether you're looking to play, stake, spend, or just explore a trending new protocol — Coinbase Wallet is your key to more. Long-time HODLers already know that wallets are a must-have if you want complete control of your crypto. That's why Coinbase Wallet makes self-custody simple, while providing the safety and security of the most trusted name in crypto. Visit http://coinbase.com/wallet to learn more. ======================= If you're a regular listener of the podcast, I would bet that two things are true: First: You're passionate about Web3 and protecting your personal data And two: that you're a human.   If I'm right, then congratulations! You're entitled to all the benefits of the decentralized web. But there's a catch: As Web3-enabled tech — like NFTs, smart contracts, and DAOs — drive more elements of our “real world” lives online, proving that you're a person – without surrendering personal data – becomes exponentially more valuable. And exponentially more difficult.   This is why Unstoppable Domains launched Humanity Check.    Humanity Check proves that you're, well, you – without revealing personal data. No matter where you go on the web, you'll have total control over which apps you want to share data with…and which ones you don't.   Prefer to be completely clouded in mystique? No worries - Humanity Check is 100% opt in. If you want to feel alive, or at least prove you are, head to http://UnstoppableDomains.com and get your NFT domain with Humanity Check. ======================= Cryptocurrencies offer boundless potential, but how will you protect your crypto? Arculus is the next generation crypto cold storage wallet that combines the world's strongest security protocols on the Arculus Key Card with an easy-to-use Arculus Wallet App. With over 20 years of experience developing leading-edge secure payment technologies, CompoSecure created Arculus to give you the power to protect your financial future. You can buy, store, swap, send and receive your crypto with a simple tap of your Arculus Key Card to your mobile device. Your private keys are encrypted on the Arculus Key Card and they never leave it. Stay safe from hackers with no cords; no charging; no Bluetooth. The only person accessing your crypto... is you. Buy Arculus on Amazon today at https://amazon.com/arculus =======================

0:00 Sacks' DC trip and foreign policy speaking gig 5:50 Yield curve inversion, breaking down the current state of the markets, understanding the labor market through birth rate and immigration 26:16 How the US can fix its current economic issues, reframing high-skilled immigration 48:54 SEC's new proposed rules around SPACs and climate disclosures for public companies: how will both markets be impacted? 1:10:29 Meta used a GOP firm to run a smear campaign against TikTok in the US: dirty, necessary, or both? 1:19:03 Food shortage update 1:24:33 Sacks and Jason reflect on Biden's inflammatory comments on Putin Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525 https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/part-us-yield-curve-just-inverted-does-that-mean-recession-is-coming-2022-03-28 https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/dont-fear-the-yield-curve-reprise-20220325.htm https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/restoration-hardware-stock-price-ceo-warns-big-short-economy-inflation-2022-3 https://www.google.com/finance/quote/PATH:NYSE https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/03/american-population-growth-rate-slow/629392 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/31/2-year-treasury-yield-tops-10-year-rate-a-yield-curve-inversion-that-could-signal-a-recession.html https://www.wsj.com/articles/joe-bidens-big-new-wealth-tax-white-house-budget-fy-2023-11648504962 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-28/manchin-pans-biden-s-proposed-tax-on-unrealized-gains-of-wealthy https://theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/democrats-go-directly-to-the-center https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-29/spacs-face-fresh-sec-legal-threat-for-overly-bullish-forecasts https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-05-27/spacs-can-take-away-the-insiders-advantage-in-ipos-and-markets https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-22/the-sec-will-regulate-climate https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/30/sec-targets-spacs-with-new-rules-about-forecasts-mergers.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/30/facebook-tiktok-targeted-victory/ https://www.agweek.com/news/ukraine-ag-production-could-drop-80-fertilizer-prices-to-cut-food-supply-long-term-uk-expert-says https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2022/03/wheat-in-2023.html https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2021/09/information-on-2021-cash-rents-with-implications-for-2022.html https://www.agweek.com/news/usda-nass-to-livestream-prospective-planting-report https://www.npr.org/2022/03/28/1089300515/biden-putin-remarks-regime-change https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-s-approval-ratings-soar-amid-russia-s-war-in-ukraine/ar-AAVI29R

We discuss breaking news with the economy, the border, and more. Our guests are: Ben Harnwell, Steve Cortes, Mike Davis, Ben Bergquam, Auden Cabello Stay ahead of the censors - Join us warroom.org/join Aired On: 3/28/2022 Watch: On the Web: http://www.warroom.org On Podcast: http://warroom.ctcin.bio On TV: PlutoTV Channel 240, Dish Channel 219, Roku, Apple TV, FireTV or on https://AmericasVoice.news. #news #politics #realnews 

We discuss breaking news with the economy, the border, and more. Our guests are: Ben Harnwell, Steve Cortes, Mike Davis, Ben Bergquam, Auden Cabello Stay ahead of the censors - Join us warroom.org/join Aired On: 3/28/2022 Watch: On the Web: http://www.warroom.org On Podcast: http://warroom.ctcin.bio On TV: PlutoTV Channel 240, Dish Channel 219, Roku, Apple TV, FireTV or on https://AmericasVoice.news. #news #politics #realnews