Municipality of Switzerland in Valais
Colin Powell, the first black secretary of state, top military officer, and national security adviser, died at the age of 84 from COVID-19. While fully vaccinated, Powell's immune system was weakened by treatment for multiple myeloma. All three companies with FDA-authorized COVID shots now employ former FDA commissioners. Is this a conflict of interest or simply companies hiring people with appropriate expertise? Massachusetts is reporting that 45% of its COVID-19 deaths in the last week were fully vaccinated individuals. On the bright side, Dr. Anthony Fauci says fully vaccinated Americans can enjoy the holidays with their families, so at least our government overlords will maybe give us back the freedoms they never had the right to take. We're joined in-studio by Drew Hernandez, political commentator for Real America's Voice, and Noel Kachaturian, a journalist at Project Veritas. Drew Hernandez: YouTube @Drew Hernandez Political Commentator, @Real America's Voice News Instagram @drewhernandezlive Noel Kachaturian: Journalist @Project Veritas Instagram @noelkachaturian Note: The content of this video does not provide medical advice. Please seek the advice of local health officials for any COVID vaccine questions & concerns. Subscribe to You Are Here YouTube: https://bit.ly/2XNLhQw Watch MORE You Are Here on BlazeTV: https://bit.ly/38WB2vw Check out Elijah Schaffer's YouTube channel: https://bit.ly/3C0yWH8 Check out Sydney Watson's YouTube channel: https://bit.ly/2YIedK5 Follow Sydney Watson on Twitter: https://twitter.com/SydneyLWatson Follow Elijah Schaffer on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ElijahSchaffer Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
On this episode of the NTEB Prophecy News Podcast, we are 'following the science' and the actual science shows us a starkly different picture from what the New World Order has been spoon-feeding us on the subject of the efficacy of the mRNA COVID vaccine, side effects and adverse reactions. For many months now, they have tried to keep hidden the truth about COVID death rates, telling us that vaccines will keep us safe, but nothing of the kind is the actual truth. In dystopian Australia, they are now telling their fully vaccinated citizens to 'go out and catch COVID' to boost their immune systems...what tha???? Join us today on the Prophecy News Podcast where the Truth will always make you free. Breaking news this morning in Washington as it's revealed that Colin Powell, the first Black US secretary of state, has died this morning from complications of COVID-19. Colin Powell was fully vaccinated with the vaccine that the New World Order vaccine police promise us will keep us safe. But it's not just Colin Powell, in fact, the wheels are coming off of the whole vaccine bus as as 'the science' is now exposing the whole, sorry mess. "And ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free." John 8:32 (KJB) https://www.nowtheendbegins.com/nteb-prophecy-news-podcast-fully-vaccinated-colin-powell-dies-from-covid-19/
I'd been talking to someone recently about defining your ideal client or audience so you know who you are speaking to on your platforms - and I'd never really done that - mostly because I wanted to talk to everyone. I wanted everyone to feel as if I was speaking to them - I used to resist the idea of niches and ideal clients. However, lately I realized that actually, that intimacy we create when we do this, allows for a deeper experience for the audience. This was my personal realization when I finally went to define this. Maybe this will inspire you as well, and I am curious if anyone else has had this journey with their business and defining their ideal client and who they want to speak to. I Am offering Quantum Recalibration sessions and Intuitive Life Path readings and rune/oracle guidance on my website below, as well as opening one space for 1-on-1 deep dive for a soul who is ready to step FULLY into wayshowership. This is a unique opportunity, I am only opening one space, for a 3 or 6 month container and will be sharing some deep activations, healing, and transformation for this person to uplevel their life and step into their power, fully. If this calls to your heart, you can send me a DM or apply via my website below! Connect with me on Instagram Connect with me on Facebook Check out my OFFERINGS :) PS: If you are interested in joining our amazing container for Spiritual Business Alchemy to launch your business into the next level of abundant flow and aligned, heart-centered creation - you can find out more HERE!
Hello everyone and welcome to the WDW Mainstreet podcast. Pull up your stool with John and Doug as they discuss all of the latest news from around Walt Disney World and their little worlds! First things first Doug has to cry a little about his Eagles losing to John's Bucs and how the refs love Tom Brady! EPCOT'S Candlelight Processional returns and the guys are very happy it's returning but not happy about the food package pricing. Fully vaccinated UK, UE Citizens can now again vacation in Walt Disney World. Old Key West and Saratoga Springs Lobbies have been refinished, new kitchen for holidays around the world plus so much more. Grab yourself a cold one, sit back, relax and enjoy the show!
Some useful timestamps:[Links not showing? Please visit: https://getlpodcast.com]00:00 - Intro - Welcome to Episode 76!02:30 - Fully Vaccinated05:00 - Zoomer Humour07:00 - Coffee-ing into Oblivion08:00 - Question of the week!28:00 - Far Cry 6 is great!29:30 - Coffee WILL survive climate change34:40 - Coffee is an aphrodisiac & prevents E36:35 - Sex Coffee (Recipe included)42:30 - Vampires & Religious Perversion56:00 - Outro - Thanks for listening!If you enjoyed, please give us a good rating.
Halida Hatic is long-term student of the Enneagram, a tool for personal self-understanding and transformation. She serves as the Community Weaver for the nonprofit Enneagram Prison Project, with a mission to help free people on both sides of the bars from prisons of own making. In this episode, Halida reflects on the Enneagram as a key for personal, social, and environmental healing. Halida's October 23, 2021 Enneagram workshop (in-person and online): https://www.earthandspiritcenter.org/class/introduction-to-the-enneagram/ Enneagram Prison Project: https://enneagramprisonproject.org/ Learn more about the Enneagram: https://www.enneagraminstitute.com/ Earth & Spirit Center homepage: www.earthandspiritcenter.org
LinkedIn lead generation can be a powerful tool to do more deals, expand your network, and grow your business. Hear insights about: How Scott got started in LinkedIn lead generation after learning to “lean into the uncomfortable” and after a dramatic financial setback Why “trading time for dollars” doesn't create freedom, and how Scott's career path led to mastering LinkedIn lead generation What aspects of LinkedIn's audience makes it more attractive to real estate professionals than Facebook or Instagram Why LinkedIn is an ideal platform for creating real relationships with right-fit clients who know, like and trust you in an organic way Scott defines the “four layers of LinkedIn” starting with your profile, and he shares the elements that create a great, attention-catching profile Why the free version of LinkedIn offers all the tools you need to stand out and generate new leads Why you should only accept connection requests from people who fall into one of two buckets: ideal clients and “power-partners” Why the word “support” is a power word that can open new doors, and how to create messages to others that can help you build bonds Why creating value-added content is crucial, and why committing to a content posting schedule is vital LinkedIn Lead Generation One of the challenges real estate agents face is in generating leads, and there are lots of channels available for marketing your business. Many real estate professionals use social media tools like Instagram or Facebook, but you shouldn't overlook LinkedIn either. LinkedIn lead generation can be a powerful resource for growing your network and your business. The key is to use it correctly! My guest for this week's episode of the Pursuing Freedom podcast is my friend Scott Aaron, an internationally acclaimed and award-winning network marketer, business coach, author and speaker who has mastered the art of using LinkedIn as a powerful marketing tool for professionals of all kinds. In our conversation, Scott shares how LinkedIn's audience demographics and built-in networking resources can be put to work by real estate agents to grow their reach, find more right-fit clients, and create content that inspires trust and builds a powerful reputation. LinkedIn Lead Generation Strategies Scott's secret to creating powerful LinkedIn lead generation is found in his “four layers” approach. These are four key steps you can follow to significantly up your LinkedIn game. Scott describes it like a wedding cake with four tiers. The bottom tier, the base, is your profile itself. Your profile's elements should be working together to clearly define what you do. Your profile picture should be a professional headshot, and your headline should NOT be a “power statement” but instead should be filled with searchable terms that sum up what you do and who you are. Your “About Me” section should be written in the first person and should conclude with a clearly defined call to action. All the following sections such as your education, volunteer experience and licenses and certifications should be filled in as well. The second layer of your LinkedIn cake is how you build your network. Scott says that you shouldn't accept every connection request you get but should instead only connect with others if they fall into one of two categories: they should either match your ideal client avatar, or they should be what Scott calls “power partners”, people who operate in the same spaces you do that can make introductions and facilitate connections. Anyone who isn't an ideal client or a power partner shouldn't become part of your network. The third layer is your messaging. How you reach out to others has a dramatic impact on how their opinion of you forms. Your messaging should follow Scott's three-step “magic formula:” Connection request – a personalized, relaxed, conversational introduction Lower the drawbridge – find and clearly state the common points you share with the person you're messaging, and specifically use the word “support” in this section Call to action – a closing statement that clearly defines what you would like the recipient to do next to further the building of the relationship The final layer of Scott's LinkedIn lead generation strategy is your content creation. The content you share on LinkedIn should add value to the people you share it with. It should be focused on what Scott calls the PSP, the “passenger-side perspective.” In other words, your content should be tailored around your audience and their needs and expectations. If you would like to see what a great LinkedIn profile looks like in action, check out Scott's profile at www.linkedin.com/in/scottaaroncoach/. On his website, Scott also offers a free LinkedIn profile optimizer that can help you identify and correct issues with your profile. You can find that at www.ScottAaron.net, where you can also connect with Scott and learn more about how he helps clients master LinkedIn lead generation. And as always, check out www.pursuingfreedom.com for other great podcast episodes and interviews with industry professionals! About Scott Aaron: Internationally acclaimed and award-winning network marketer, business coach, author and speaker, Scott Aaron is the go-to specialist when it comes to converting traffic, establishing connections, creating residual income using LinkedIn®, and building personal brands. Starting his own network marketing business just 4 years ago, Scott saw the massive opportunities that the internet had to offer. Fully immersing himself in learning LinkedIn and social media strategies, Scott quickly gained traction as a leader in generating big results for other network marketers, online business owners and internet marketers, while generating a multiple six-figure business himself. Scott is passionate about helping fellow network marketers achieve success while building their own network organically and without complicated and costly marketing tactics. His program has helped thousands of network marketers, entrepreneurs and individuals experience explosive growth following his program LinkedIn Accelerator. People-focused and results-driven, Scott's strategic approach to teaching others how to create wealth online and organic traffic is the game changer when it comes to competing in a saturated digital world. How to Connect With Scott Aaron: Website: www.scottaaron.net Youtube: www.youtube.com/channel/UCgOLbrbV5Kzye_ed9wYoTjg Email: firstname.lastname@example.org LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/scottaaroncoach/ Instagram: www.instagram.com/scottaaronlinkedin/ Facebook: www.facebook.com/scott.aaron.33 Twitter: @thescottaaron Additional Resources: Set for Success Planner Time Tracker 5-Step Guide to More Referrals
Pursuing your calling is an amazing journey but it isn't always easy. Along the way, God has to refine you as you become the person He needs you to be to do the things He wants you to do. In the online space, you hear a lot to “Only do what makes you happy” or “You don't have to put up with stress” but God does things a little differently. In today's episode, we're going to talk about why discomfort is actually really important in accomplishing what God has in store for you (and no, it's not a “harder is holier” message). You will have joy and peace beyond all understanding, but it doesn't mean there won't be things that are hard. It might be scary to do what God is asking you to do. Each step brings up all sorts of uncomfortable emotions. In that moment, you have a decision to pivot or meet that discomfort head-on. If we let the emotions lead us and always choose the comfortable, then we'll never come out on the other side changed and better for it (See James 1:2-4) When there's discomfort, this often represents an underlying lie that we are believing. The discomfort can show itself as anger, frustration, worry, etc. But really, if you look deeper, you might find that worry is there because you aren't truly trusting in God to provide, protect and lead you. When you face the discomfort and go deeper, you can see what God is wanting to uncover in you so He can help you see it in a new light by applying His word and His truth to it so you can be free from its grip on you. This is how you get a breakthrough. This is when God shows you the thing that's been holding you back and now you're able to move forward empowered with the Truth instead of operating in a lie. And now you're able to move forward in your calling. This is a key part of your journey with God as you step into your calling. I hope this encourages you this week. If you're looking wanting extra support in this area, book a free breakthrough session with me. No obligation to purchase any additional coaching. These free calls are really there to provide you support with one area so you can have a breakthrough and keep pursuing the calling God has given you. Go to www.mamawithacalling.com/coaching to book that. Want more support as you're transitioning to a life of pursuing what God is calling you to? I've got you covered! >Want community? Join me in the Mama With A Calling Facebook group and other like-minded faith-fueled women all pursuing their calling of having purposeful and profitable online businesses. >Want more how-tos and info? Check out the articles on my site www.mamawithacalling.com >Wanting someone to help you see your next step clearly in the midst of the noise? Grab a clarity coaching session with me (www.mamawithacalling.com/clarity). Not sure if coaching is right for you? Sign up for a free mini session and see if we're a good fit (www.mamawithacalling.com/coaching). I'd love to connect with you on Instagram! Send me a DM and say hi @mamawithacalling
Welcome to Mind Your Own Business, the podcast that helps photographers improve their business and their lives! Today we chat with Arizona-based portrait and commercial photographer Allison Tyler Jones. Get ready to be inspired! We discuss: How Allison got her start as a photographer What she did during the pandemic and survived The importance of developing your brand as a photographer Allison's program "The rework" , and how it's helping portrait photographers uniquely brand and confidently price their best work Why Allison's business focuses on being full service The importance of being uniquely YOU in your photography business Advice for photographers just starting out You can find Allison at: Atjphoto.com Atjphoto.com/photographers You can be the next guest on our podcast Do you have an idea for a topic or want to hear from your favorite photographer or influencer in our industry? Send an email to email@example.com or firstname.lastname@example.org, with the subject line MIND YOUR OWN BUSINESS IDEA. Then write a brief description of your topic or idea. If you are recommending someone, please include their name, contact information and state if you would like to be a guest host. Thanks for listening! Don't forget to share this episode with your friends. You can also listen on iTunes; we'd love it if you could post a review!
Radio Sweden brings you a round-up of the main news in Sweden on October 14th 2021. You can hear more reports on our homepage www.radiosweden.se, or in our app Sveriges Radio Play. Presenter: Frank Radosevich Producer: Kris Boswell
This is Coronavirus 411, the latest COVID-19 info and new hotspots for October 14th, 2021. After a 19-month freeze, the United States will open its land borders with Canada and Mexico to non-essential travel. Fully vaccinated foreign nationals can enter the U.S. for whatever reason starting early November. Travelers will be asked about their vaccination status as part of the standard Customs and Border Protection admissions process, and no testing will be required to enter by land or sea. Despite full steam ahead by the U.S. administration and other countries, the Director General of the World Health Organization called booster shots while initial inoculations lag in some countries is "immoral, unfair, and unjust.” He went on to say, "To start boosters is really the worst we can do as a global community." A federal judge ruled the state of New York can't impose a vaccine mandate on healthcare workers and not allow their employers to consider religious exemption requests. The judge said the vaccination requirement conflicted with the workers' federally protected right to seek religious accommodations from their employers. The Governor vowed to fight the decision. At least 24 states have imposed vaccine requirements on workers, usually in healthcare. Boeing told employees they have to be vaccinated and if they don't, they might get fired. Deadline is December 8 and the company said compliance is a condition of employment. This affects about 125,000 U.S.-based employees. The International Association of Machinists union said it's their responsibility to defend and advocate for members, but the fact is the membership is polarized on the issue. So can you get a booster from a different vaccine than your original doses? A new NIH study found yes, it's safe and effective. However, Moderna and Pfizer were found to spark a stronger immune system response than Johnson & Johnson. The study found those that got J&J got stronger antibody levels after getting a Moderna or Pfizer booster, compared to another J&J shot. In the United States cases were down 21%, deaths are down 4%, and hospitalizations are down 20% over 14 days. The 7-day average of new cases has been trending down since September 13. There are 9,695,293 active cases in the United States. With not all states reporting daily numbers, the five states with the greatest increase in hospitalizations per capita: Michigan 23%, Minnesota 18%. North Dakota and Pennsylvania 12%. And Montana 10%. The top 10 counties with the highest number of recent cases per capita according to The New York Times: Karnes, TX. Bethel Census Area, AK. Lewis, KY. Stark, ND. Kenai Peninsula Borough, AK. Knox, IN. Goshen, WY. Rio Grande, CO. Clay, TX. And Nome Census Area, AK. There have been at least 717,812 deaths in the U.S. recorded as Covid-related. The top 3 vaccinating states by percentage of population that's been fully vaccinated: Vermont at 70.3%, Connecticut at 69.6%, and Rhode Island at 69.4%. The bottom 3 vaccinating states are West Virginia still unchanged at 40.7%, Idaho at 42.5%, and Wyoming at 42.6%. The percentage of the U.S. that's been fully vaccinated is 56.5%. The five countries with biggest 24-hour increases in the number of fully vaccinated people: Taiwan up 5%. And South Korea, New Zealand, Australia, and Oceana 2%. Globally, cases were down 13% and deaths were down 14% over 14 days, with the 7-day average trending down since August 26. There are 17,774,995 active cases around the world. The five countries with the most new cases: The United States 84,154. The U.K. 38,076. Turkey 33,860. Russia 28,190. And Romania 16,743. There have been at least 4,870,663 deaths reported as Covid-related worldwide. For the latest... See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
Kraken takes loss in inaugural game but remains focused on the big picture - AUDIO? // Loudoun County Schools Tried To Conceal Sexual Assault Against Daughter In Bathroom, Father Says - AUDIO // LCPS issues response to newly-surfaced sexual assault allegations // Deputies: 15-year-old teen charged in sexual battery case of high school student in Loudoun county // US to reopen land borders in November for fully vaccinated - AUDIO // 18 percent of migrant families leaving Border Patrol custody tested positive for Covid, document says // Middle-Class Migrants Fly to Mexico and Then Cross U.S. Border Illegally // LETTERS See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
What's Goin Dine?! This week Dizzle and Money B are joined by guests MJ and Ari C to start the bracket for Way Back When's Male Dime pieces. Listen in to hear them weigh in on their picks and hear who else besides R. Kelly loved to give Golden Showers!!!! WBW News - 8:26 The Fix (Male Dimes) - 27:15 This is our Golden Era!
Sign up for the newsletter Over the last few weeks I've been intrigued with the firms who have chosen to bite the bullet and ditch their office. What are their philosophies about getting colleagues together in person? How do they think about recruiting? What software tools do they use? What made them make the leap?First up I talked to Camilla Boyer who plays a leading role at making the culture at events platform Hopin. Andrew McNeile is the Chief Customer Officer for Thinscale - a company that supplies secure remote working software for outsourcing firms. One of their customers has 375,000 user on their remote work systems. Then I chatted to Lewis Clark at Qatalog he is responsible for storytelling at Qatalog who are remote first (but he spends one day a week in the office).Then I realised all of these firms were in some way invested in the shift to remote working so I talked to a real person - Lisa Freshwater has been helping Blood Cancer UK ditch their office for good. Finally I chatted to Dan Sodergren whose company YourFLOCK is fully remote. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
In this episode, join Paul Mort and Ishaya Monk, Arjuna Ishaya. The Ishayas are an ancient - non religious - spiritual order of monks devoted to experiencing higher states of consciousness or "Christ consciousness" Here's what we covered; How to live life to the FULL through being present, What life is like as a devoted Ishaya MONK, Using meditation as a tool for clarity and focus, How to find peace through acceptance of reality And much more... For show notes, updates and free stuff.. don't forget to subscribe to the podcast AND head on over to http://paulmort.uk
JWB Co-Founder, Gregg Cohen will reveal his JWB turnkey property of the week, take questions from the audience, and share insights into the Jacksonville real estate market.This week's featured property...- Is fully renovated- will generate positive monthly cash flow- will be able to close much quicker than brand new construction (roughly 2 months or less)Be the first to know which property Gregg recommends each week as we reveal it live on the show. This is your chance to pick the brain of an investor with 15 years of experience, that oversees $450M worth of assets, and genuinely wants to help you out.
Episode 63: How Shining Your Light Can Influence Others In A Positive Way Show Description: Everyone influences another because of your relationship with them. So, are you leading by setting an excellent example for others to follow? Top Takeaways: [2:44] Why You Are Influencing Others[4:33] Be A Force For Good[6:11] Characteristics Of A Positive Influencer[8:02] Ways To Authentically Shine Your Inner Light[11:38] Being An All-Around Leader In The Work Place[16:12] Moving Forward Positively Influencing Others Episode Links: Ø https://terrikozlowski.mastermind.com/masterminds/25609Ø Nurturing friends Ø Being yourself Ø Actively listening Ø Accept your strengths and weaknessesØ Aware like you areØ Boost in self-confidence Ø Encourage one another Ø Fully present Ø Intentional in your words Ø Authentically connect with people Ø Resiliency Ø Growth-minded people Ø Passion for learning Ø Consciously listen Ø Your tribe Ø Open your eyes to the possibilities Ø Help their supervisorØ Emerging as a natural leader Ø Principles of leading down Ø Respect and value each team member as individuals Ø Through empathy Ø Effective communicator Ø www.TerriKozlowski.com Ø Raven Transcending Fear Support the show (https://paypal.me/TerriKozlowski)
Today's S.O.L. STORY is inspired by this time of year when people are reflecting on where they've come from, and where they're going. Perhaps they're not happy with where they are. Is this you? START WITH ONE. No matter what you desire in your life, you cannot get to where you desire to go without taking one step. You cannot build what you desire to build without taking one step. What do you do when you feel like you have to start picking up the pieces and putting them back together again? This is your time to decide what you're going to build, and which pieces you're going to use. You have to start with ONE piece. O.N.E. (You know how much I love a great acronym.) O: Own it. Take responsibility. It's your ability to respond. If you don't own it, you won't be able to do something with it. Instead you'll get caught in blame, shame, guilt, and judgement. You'll waste a lot of time, and keep yourself from starting. Own the opportunities. See where the doors are open. Recognize it. N: Now. Look at where you are exactly in this moment that you are. Right here, and now. If you want to get somewhere, you have to start NOW, HERE, or you'll get NOWHERE. Start where you are. Or you won't start. Next. What now. Then what next? Take that next step. E: Engage. Fully engage. Get down on your knee, and ask yourself to commit to YOU. Commit to yourself. Commit to the plan. Commit to your now…your next, your opportunity and fully OWNING IT. When you own it, you have to work with. You have a place to stand. You have a place to live while you're loving your life and your life's work well. I know, this may seem like it sounds way too simple. The most profound things in life are the simplest. The last thing you need is a complicated plan. Keep It Simple S.O.L. Sister. K.I.S.S. yourself today. One moment. One minute. One plan. One sip at a time. One day at a time. Please grab your S.O.L. D.A.T.E. JOURNAL (Daily Action To Engage yourself.) TODAY'S SACRED S.O.L. STEP: What would you like to start today? Own where you are. Where are you? Own it. Write down any, and all opportunities, that you see in front of you right now. Start with one. Look at your now. Write about it. Look at your next. What next? Write about it. Write yourself an official ENGAGEMENT. Ask yourself to fully commit to you, your life, and your life's work well. To starting. To finishing. Thank you for being here, and allowing me to Sip On Life with you. If you've been feeling like you're stuck, overwhelmed, or perhaps you still feel like you're drowning in your life, please don't hesitate to reach out. YOU ARE NOT ALONE... Request a FREE copy of my best-selling book, Date Yourself Well — The Best-Selling 12 Engagements Of Becoming The Great Lover Of Your Life (all you'll pay for is shipping.) www.dateyourselfwell.com If you've received value from the podcast, please let me know. I'd LOVE to hear from you — please email me at: email@example.com AND PLEASE TELL YOUR BESTIES AND INVITE THEM TO SIP ON LIFE WITH US. FOLLOW ME ON INSTAGRAM @doctorshannon! See you there... And learn about an incredible opportunity for a select sacred group of 25 women who are ready and willing to RISE UP AND BE THE WOMAN. If you've been feeling like you're stuck, overwhelmed, or perhaps you still feel like you're drowning, please don't hesitate to reach out. I'd be more than happy to schedule a Discovery Call with you to see if Healing Life Coaching is a good fit for you. Email me at firstname.lastname@example.org Come over to the WOMEN SIPPING ON LIFE S.O.L. MOVEMENT Closed FB Group and Join the MOVEMENT: https://www.facebook.com/groups/WSOLMovement/ By the way, if you haven't already listened/downloaded my new song (EPISODE 291), you can also listen to it here: letsnottalkaboutex.com, and cast your vote for your favorite version. Visit WomenSippingOnLife.com for more free resources, including my CHECKLIST FOR CHANGE, Engagement Checklist + Evaluation Rating, Six Sacred S.O.L. DATE Secrets…and a FREE copy of my best-selling book, Date Yourself Well. You can also check out my Dr. Shannon Facebook Page for more daily S.O.L. TRAINING. I look forward to seeing you again tomorrow. Please invite your best girlfriends to come and join our S.O.L. PARTY. xo Dr. Shannon. Inspiring minds that want to grow and hearts that want to know, so you can love you, your life, and your life's work well. ONE SIP AT A TIME. A special thanks to the following souls for helping me launch our WOMEN SIPPING ON LIFE podcast… Intro/Outro done by UNI V. SOL Outro music by Jay Man: Mind Over Matter (www.ourmusicbox.com) Podcast cover design and web site done by: Pablo Aguilar (www.webdesigncreator.com) Podcast cover photo by Kate Montague of KM Captured (www.kmcaptured.com)
Today's episode honestly might be my favorite one I've ever recorded…there is an immense amount of New Earth codes for freedom embedded in this that will be interpreted beyond the mind. We are stepping into and creating a world this planet has not yet seen - this includes TRUSTING the unseen - invisible realm. Realizing that there is so much happening beyond what we can see, hear, and feel. This episode is more of a deep light-encoded transmission to house new leadership codes in your light body for the new leaders to activate their missions, roles, and wayshower abilities. FEEL into this, beyond words. There is ALOT here. Open and receive. You will feel it as knowing, because what I am sharing, you already have within. I am simply reminding you. You are here for a reason. Trust. Lean in. Believe what you're feeling. I am so curious how you feel after listening to this and what transpires in your personal reality as an echo to receiving this. It is a powerful episode – I hope it resonates in your heart the way it did in mine as I brought this through. So much is available to our planet right now – and we have incredible opportunities before us that are our choice to step into - in every given moment. I plan on continuing to bring forward the codes of this New Earth grid for those of you who are resonating with the WayShower path at this time. It is time we step up – and IN – to our roles, missions, fully embodied power and speak and live in integrity with our truth. The time is NOW. Please send me a message on Instagram, or leave a review if this resonated with you and let me know how your unique journey is going! I am so curious to hear from all of you – remember, this is a co-creative space, and I really would love to hear how these topics are landing and what you would like to hear more of! I love you, thank you for being here – it really means so much to me! I Am offering Quantum Recalibration sessions and Intuitive Life Path readings and rune/oracle guidance on my website below, as well as opening one space for 1-on-1 deep dive for a soul who is ready to step FULLY into wayshowership. This is a unique opportunity, I am only opening one space, for a 3 or 6 month container and will be sharing some deep activations, healing, and transformation for this person to uplevel their life and step into their power, fully. If this calls to your heart, you can send me a DM or apply via my website below! Connect with me on Instagram Connect with me on Facebook Check out my OFFERINGS :) PS: If you are interested in joining our amazing container for Spiritual Business Alchemy to launch your business into the next level of abundant flow and aligned, heart-centered creation - you can find out more HERE!
On this week's episode we dive into the “how” of travel content creation with remote working coach Ali Pruitt. After feeling dissatisfied with the way life was back in her home town, she began making changes in her life which led her to becoming a digital nomad. After working remotely for a few years, she went full time as a productivity and work-life balance coach after the pandemic hit. During our conversation, she talks about her travel experiences and what ultimately drove her to join the travel lifestyle. She also shares some incredible tips for increasing your productivity and decreasing your burnout while trying to juggle travel, life, and work. She shares her RECAP method and how she uses that to stay on top of her busy life. If you want to learn more about the RECAP method, you can watch her Masterclass here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjwNDfU7tPQ. You can also follow her on social media, connect with her on LinkedIn, or visit her online to learn more: fullyremotewithali.com. To purchase a nextstand of your own like the one Ali mentions during the podcast, you can buy one here: https://nexstand.eu/?ref=3457016 Ali will also be leading a webinar on the 3rd day of an upcoming Digital Nomad Week December 6-8. You can purchase tickets here: https://hopin.com/events/digital-nomad-week?ref=26c253d22327 To get daily updates about this podcast, join the conversation on Facebook and Instagram. We'd love for you to rate this show and leave a comment on Apple Podcasts letting us know what you thought of this episode. Your feedback is always valued! --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/travelworthliving/support
Today’s audio recap focuses on our October 9 note, Nothing is Resolved or Fully PricedHere is the link to the Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC YouTube channel, today’s video will be posted Monday following the release of this podcast.To read the note referenced in our weekly podcast, get our subscriber flash updates, chart books, and direct access to the director of research please become a paid subscriber. If you are an institutional client, you can also onboard us to your research platform for institutional quality service. You can also contact me about my advisory role with Macro Risk Advisors if you pay for research with trading commissions. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email email@example.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month or $999/year. If you are already a subscriber, thank you.For additional information see Ironsides Macro/aboutBarry C. 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Sydney has been celebrating what's been dubbed Freedom Day - but only for those fully vaccinated. After more than 100 days in lockdown, it's a relief for many - and a shot in the arm for a suffering economy. RNZ WorldWatch's Max Towle filed this report.
The city state of Singapore is now opening itself up again to the outside world with fully vaccinated citizens now able to travel to many countries and many big public events are back on the social calendar. University of Auckland professor of epidemiology Rod Jackson has been following the Singaporean story closely. He spoke to Kim Hill.
In this episode, Host Chae Cole encourages listeners that they are fully capable of achieving whatever it is that God has placed inside of them. Whether it be the business, the career, the gift, or the talent, you have the ability to make it happen through God. It is important that we understand how are limiting beliefs can affect our ability to achieve our goals. Listen to this episode to be inspired to go out and do whatever it is that God has called you to because you are fully capable! Scripture: Romans 8:37 NKJV - Yet in all these things we are more than conquerors through Him who loved us. Host: Chae Cole Intro/Closing Beat: Maurice Meyers IG: @mrdiggs23 Instagram: @Coletherapy Website: https://www.coletherapy.com Email: email@example.com --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app
Oh boy, this one gets a tad messy. I think it will take more than a hose to clean this one off… Listen in to another scandalous episode of Welcome to St. Paxton. Want to peek behind the curtain? Check us out on Twitch where we record every Sunday. Click here to jump to our …
"A federal judge late Wednesday temporarily blocked enforcement of a Texas law that bans most abortions, delivering an early victory to the Biden administration in its legal challenge to the law. In a 113-page order, U.S. District Judge Robert Pitman of Austin said the law is an "offensive deprivation of such an important right" and said state actors, including judges and court clerks, can no longer enforce its provisions. "A person's right under the Constitution to choose to obtain an abortion prior to fetal viability is well established," Pitman wrote. "Fully aware that depriving its citizens of this right by direct state action would be flagrantly unconstitutional, (Texas) contrived an unprecedented and transparent statutory scheme to do just that." One hour after his ruling was released, the state notified Pitman that it planned to file an appeal with the U.S. 5th Circuit Court of Appeals. The case could eventually make its way to the U.S. Supreme Court, which previously declined to intervene and stop the law from going into effect on Sept. 1. State officials including Gov. Greg Abbott and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton did not immediately react to the ruling." "The law prohibits most abortions after six weeks of pregnancy and allows any private individual to sue abortion providers or those who aid and abet procedures that violate the law. Successful litigants can collect $10,000. Pitman said "people seeking abortions face irreparable harm when they are unable to access abortions" and that temporarily blocking Texas' law from going into effect would allow abortions to proceed "at least for some subset of affected individuals." --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/antonio-myers4/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/antonio-myers4/support
Michelle Freed is a graduate of the Alternative Practitioner Academy and received certification from the National Guild of Hypnotism. She completed the beginning, intermediate, and advanced training programs through the International School of Clairvoyance, where she learned to integrate her intuitive gifts with her hypnosis skills.Michelle is a talented remote viewer and remote viewing instructor. Fully-certified in all forms of Controlled Remote Viewing, She completed the beginning through advanced training programs through Right Hemisphere, Intuitive Specialists, APP, and received additional training from Joe McMoneagle.Michelle is a member of IRVA (International Remote Viewing Association) and along with her co-researcher received the Warcollier Prize in 2017. She has research related to Remote Viewing and Parapsychology Published with The Journal of Psychical Research, The Parapsychology Association, and Eight Martinis Magazine. Michelle works on special remote viewing projects with IONS (Institute of Noetic Sciences).Michelle is in the Documentary Third Eye Spies and appears on an episode of Ancient Aliens.Michelle is the former producer for Art Bell, and currently co-owner of the new Midnight.fm Network and producer for the Midnight Society Radio Show with Tim Weisberg.https://www.butterflyeffectcenter.com/Today, Michelle joins Conflict Radio to discuss Remote Viewing, Hypnosis, Missing People - Have They All been taken by UFOs - & what it was like to Produce for Art Bell, The long time Host and creator of Coast To Coast AMJoin this channel to get access to perks:https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCHzWqM_Xm-EgRfwt2cbBAHQ/joinConflict Radio - Discord Linkhttps://discord.com/invite/MykTtkvDRMConflict Radio - Episode 135 Remote Viewing, Missing People & Art Bell with Michelle Freedhttps://conflictradio.net/
Jeff and Phil welcome Naomi Gleit, VP of Product at Facebook, who wrote a personal essay about her multiracial identity. She talks about growing up ethnically ambiguous, finding her voice on issues of identity and race, and embracing the notion that she is neither half Asian nor half Jewish, but fully both.
ResourcesJoin Dr. Steve in Jacksonville, FL, with Donald Trump Jr on Oct. 8-9!!! This is going to be our biggest event EVER!!! So make sure to click on the link RIGHT NOW: https://conferences.turleytalks.com/aftRead the blog post here: CULTURE SHIFT! The American Right has fully embraced Nationalism!Get Your Brand-New PATRIOT T-Shirts and Merch Here: https://store.turleytalks.com/Become a Turley Talks Insiders Club Member and get the first 7 days FREE!!: https://insidersclub.turleytalks.com/welcomeFight Back Against Big Tech Censorship! Sign-up here to discover Dr. Steve's different social media options …. but without the censorship! https://www.turleytalks.com/en/alternative-media.com Thank you for taking the time to listen to this episode. If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe and/or leave a review.Do you want to be a part of the podcast and be our sponsor? Click here to partner with us and defy liberal culture!If you would like to get lots of articles on conservative trends make sure to sign-up for the 'New Conservative Age Rising' Email Alerts.
Jeff Ward's experience, insight, and unique perspective on football is always in demand. The audience starves for his fearless, agenda-free, and irreverent take on the teams and storylines that matter most. Now, fans can get a steady diet of his football knowledge with regular segments titled “Six Minutes of Football." Follow The Jeff Ward Show on social media: Twitter Instagram Facebook Jeff Ward is a highly decorated former NCAA football player with extensive ties to the University of Texas. He's been nominated as an Outstanding Young Texas Ex, and while a student at The University of Texas, he was a four-year Letterman in football, a football team captain, a member of the Athletics Director's Academic Honor Roll, a three-time all-conference football player, and a two-time All-American football player. He's among the top five all-time leading scorers at The University of Texas, and he's the NCAA record holder for game-winning field goals. He was selected in the 1988 NFL Draft to play football professionally. The podcast market is oversaturated with NCAA and NFL football content but with Jeff, you get the educated perspective of someone who's lived it. Jeff has been appearing on both national news and local (Texas-based) news platforms to discuss sports, politics and economics for over 20 years. Jeff's time at The University of Texas provided him with knowledge of worldwide economics, marketing strategies and the economics of sports, particularly with NCAA Football. With the NCAA always finding itself involved in hot-button issues, Jeff Ward explains what's going on behind the scenes. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In this episode you'll hear from Michelle Wlazlo, executive vice president and chief merchandising officer for JCPenney, as she discusses their Thereabouts brand, a new inclusive line of kids apparel that celebrates the diversity of shapes, sizes, styles, and abilities. You'll also hear about the efforts that JCPenney has made to create clothing that is adaptive and inclusive for adults as well as children.
Happy Birthday to my little sister! news@CrossPolitic.com Join our Business network: www.FLFnetwork.com/business Join our club. Memorandum: Enforcing reproductive responsibility among men https://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/legis/csm/showmemopublic.cfm?chamber=h&spick=20210&cosponid=36286&mobile_choice=suppress To: All House members Subject: Enforcing reproductive responsibility among men “For far too long, the public debate around abortion, contraception and related reproductive matters has thrust government into the center of restrictions on the bodily autonomy of women and girls. Rarely is there a meaningful dialogue around public policy focusing on the personal responsibility of cisgender men in this sphere. The rights of cisgender men have always been paramount in our society with little focus on their responsibility as inseminators to change their behaviors for the good of their partners, families, and society at large. As we head toward climax on this heated discourse around this delicate matter, we should come together to address it with surgical precision. We must also commit to mending the social fabric being sliced up by bitter acrimony. In order to improve public health outcomes and release sweet justice into our households and bedrooms, we must wrap our love of individual liberty in the moral imperative of greater personal responsibility and acknowledge men's essential role in procreation. Therefore, I will be introducing legislation that will require all inseminators to undergo vasectomies within 6 weeks from having their third child or 40th birthday, whichever comes first. Further, this legislation will allow Pennsylvanians to take civil action for unwanted pregnancies against inseminators who wrongfully conceive a child with them. This legislation will also empower Pennsylvanians to enforce this new law by offering a $10,000 reward for reporting to the proper authorities those scofflaws who have not complied with this statute within the allotted timeframe. As long as state legislatures continue to restrict the reproductive rights of cis women, trans men and non-binary people, there should be laws that address the responsibility of men who impregnate them. Thus, my bill will also codify “wrongful conception” to include when a person has demonstrated negligence toward preventing conception during intercourse. What's good for the goose is good for the gander! In the spirit of this popular axiom, I encourage my colleagues to take a gander at this forthcoming bill that seeks to end this egregiously gendered double standard for the benefit of all individuals, our families and our great commonwealth.” Texas Supreme Court Denies Planned Parenthood Challenge to Heartbeat Law https://www.texastribune.org/2021/10/04/texas-supreme-court-abortion-lawsuit/ “The Texas Supreme Court denied a request Monday from Planned Parenthood to resume its lawsuit, filed in a state district court, that challenges the state's near-total abortion ban. Planned Parenthood asked the all-Republican court last week to overturn the Texas Multidistrict Litigation Panel's decision to indefinitely pause its suit alongside 13 other lawsuits filed in Travis County district court. The panel of five judges stopped the cases from continuing at the request of Texas Right to Life, a prominent anti-abortion organization that helped draft Texas' abortion restrictions. “The Texas Supreme Court's decision to allow the stay to remain in effect is extremely disappointing and will likely deprive Planned Parenthood of its day in court, once again,” Helene Krasnoff, Planned Parenthood's vice president for public policy litigation and law, said in a statement. Elizabeth Myers, a Dallas-based attorney who represents plaintiffs for the other 13 lawsuits blocked, said Monday's ruling was disappointing, but she called the stay a temporary setback. “We'll present our arguments and the defendants will ultimately have to attempt to defend SB8 on the merits,” Myers said. “That is something the defendants are obviously scared and unwilling to do, so it's not surprising that they continue to try to delay it. At some point, their delay tactics will no longer work and our clients look forward to that day.” These lawsuits are not the only legal challenges to the state's abortion law, commonly known as Senate Bill 8. Abortion providers, doctors, women's rights groups and even the U.S. government are battling to overturn the law in federal courts. A federal appeals court is set to hold a hearing in December in one lawsuit aimed at overturning the restrictions. A federal judge is also expected to issue an order soon on whether to temporarily block enforcement of Texas' abortion law as part of a U.S. Justice Department lawsuit filed after the Biden administration vowed to challenge the statute. Also on Monday, the Biden administration reversed a 2018 decision by former President Donald Trump that disallows family planning clinics from receiving federal funding if they provide abortion referrals. Texas' near-total abortion ban has been in effect for more than a month, even as abortion providers, doctors, women's rights groups and the U.S. government have sought to block its enforcement. The statute bars abortions after approximately six weeks of pregnancy, before many know they're pregnant. Meanwhile, most abortions in the state — experts estimate more than 85% — have ceased, and some abortion clinics have stopped offering the procedure altogether.” Facebook Whistleblower wants more government regulation over Facebook: Facebook data scientist and now whistleblower, which she apparently leans far left, Frances Haugen told Congress on Wednesday that she thinks the government can fix Facebook. Roll clip: https://www.facebook.com/newsmax/videos/389524386113734 Government took action (public health): 4:15-5:20 Appreciate the government: 8:20 Now according to the AP: https://apnews.com/article/facebook-frances-haugen-congress-testimony-af86188337d25b179153b973754b71a4?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP&utm_campaign=SocialFlow “Democrats and Republicans on the committee said Tuesday's hearing showed the need for new regulations that would change how Facebook targets users and amplifies content. Such efforts have long failed in Washington, but several senators said Haugen's testimony might be the catalyst for change. “Our differences are very minor, or they seem very minor in the face of the revelations that we've now seen, so I'm hoping we can move forward,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., the panel's chairman. Still, Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota acknowledged that Facebook and other tech companies wield a lot of power in the nation's capital, power that has blocked reforms in the past. “There are lobbyists around every single corner of this building that have been hired by the tech industry,” Klobuchar said. “Facebook and the other tech companies are throwing a bunch of money around this town and people are listening to them.”” See how much Covid-19 relief money health care providers in your state got “Congress set up a massive, $178 billion fund in 2020 meant to help mitigate the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on health care providers, known as the Provider Relief Fund. The Trump and Biden administrations haven't always been reliable about sending out the money — or sending it on time. But STAT's new analysis of a Health and Human Services database of the money reveals where it's flowing and who has received the most so far. By far, the largest payments were made to the nation's biggest hospital systems. Fully five of the top 10 recipients of cash were New York City-area hospitals or health systems; together, they received some $3.1 billion. The New York and Presbyterian Hospital (usually styled “NewYork-Presbyterian”) alone brought in $631 million, topped only by the $1.2 billion that went to the New York City Health and Hospitals Corporation, a group that operates New York City's sprawling system of public hospitals and clinics.” My hospital, in little old Moscow Idaho, has received just north of $5M of COVID relief. How is it possible that in the middle of a pandemic, where our country is flush with health insurance, government backed (socialistic healthcare) programs, why do our hospitals need more government money? With new clients flooding our hospitals, wouldn't our hospitals have more money? Closing This is Gabriel Rench with Crosspolitic News. Support Rowdy Christian media by joining our club at fightlaughfeast.com, downloading our App, and head to our annual Fight Laugh Feast Conference next fall. With your partnership, together we will fight outdated and compromised media, engage news and politics with the gospel, and replace lies and darkness with truth and light. Go to fightlaughfeast.com to take all these actions. Have a great day. Lord bless
EP277- Holiday 2021 Preview Holiday 2021 will be one of the most uncertain holiday events in modern retail history. Major disruptions to the supply chain, the last mille, and to consumer behavior as a result of covid, will make this year extremely hard to predict and manage for brands and retailers. Will shipageddon 2.0 play out again this year? Will the supply chain become the supply pain? With Amazon and Target starting holiday deals early in October, and consumer still looking for scarce inventory late into January or even February, Holiday 2021 is likely to be 5 months long. In this episode we break down all the potential issues, and make some prediction about how it might all play out. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Episode 277 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Sunday October 3rd, 2021. Transcript Jason: [0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 277 being recorded on Sunday October third 2021 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo. Scot: [0:40] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason and Scot show listeners, Jason this is a really good time for listeners to pause because we're going to do a deep dive here so that means it can be a little bit of a longer episode. And leave us that five-star review this episode is going to be so good you can go ahead and pre leave us the five star review so we'll wait for second for you to come back. All right thanks for doing that that really helps us out as we get the word out about the show, Jason last year at and I went back and had a one of our many interns look at this and it was exactly this time last year I think was actually October 2nd recording this in October 3rd so it's a pretty darn close. We coined and we were doing our annual holiday preview and we both coined and predicted ship again and that is where we saw pretty early on I think before a lot of the rest of the folks in the industry that there was going to be both a surge in digital adoption due to covid plus the normal holiday increase from e-commerce and that that was going to more than absorb all of the available last-mile demand and that's the why we coined ship again and it happened and it was bad but we all survived and made it through and hopefully the folks listening to this show got in front of that both on their business and personal side. [1:58] Well this year we want to use this episode and do a deep dive into what that's going to look like this year and it's a more complex situation last year was pretty easy to lie to read those tea leaves because you know we were already pretty close to capacity before covid and it was kind of pretty easy prediction to say that we're going to far exceed the ability to deliver the packages. This year we have a lot to unpack for you spoiler alert it's going to be worse than last year much worse because not only is it that last little piece of the whole digital retail chain of events The Last Mile that's going to be a problem but it's all the other pieces leading into it that are going to be a problem something we call the supply chain but this year we are going to call it the supply pain so we're going to peel the onion on this and first we're going to look at the economic setup heading into holiday 21 then we're going to look at the global state of supply chain then we're going to look at some of the holiday trims that are kind of factors we think that are going to tie into this last some of the pontificate errs are out with their forecasts and we're going to go through those and kind of see what we think about those. Jason want it could suck kick it off with the economic setup coming into holiday 21. Jason: [3:15] Yeah awesome Scott so first of all let me start by saying on the macroeconomic picture most of the professional analysts that look at this. Are pretty uniform in feeling like the consumer is generally in a good place that the economy is in a pretty good place and they are all very bullish on the consumers ability to spend this holiday. And I say that because my own personal feeling is that there's a little more uncertainty cooked in there there certainly are some encouraging favorable things. And there's a few worrisome things and I think. What's going to become the theme for all of these sections we talked about today is there's a significant amount of uncertainty there's a lot of things that could swing either way and have a dramatic impact on holiday so. It is what it is but. Sort of giving you how I look at the macroeconomic situation the first thing we'll talk about is inflation and there's a bunch of ways to look at inflation but a simple one is there's this thing called the Consumer Price Index which kind of. Factors in how much of each good consumers purchase and how much prices are raising for that, and the the CPI is it about 5.25% right now so that's pretty significant we more expensive Goods that consumers are having to pay. And ordinarily that inflation can be problematic for the economy a couple of things to know though. [4:43] If you kind of look at the shape of that CPI it actually is going down a little bit from a peak in July and so possible we've seen the. Peak of inflation and it's starting to come back down. Inflation is a mixed bag for retailers and holiday because they get more money for everything they sell they tend to sell less stuff but make more on each in certain circumstances it can be more profitable. Um but you know the goods are costing more we've got this 5.25 percent inflation. We also though have a pretty significant increase in wages so people are getting paid more for their work, particularly low-income people, are getting paid more for work retailers and warehouses and all kinds of companies are having to raise their wages to compete for the for this labor force that's been hard to find right now and so, wages are going up and in general the analysts would call those two things Awash that that consumers. Are getting bigger paychecks and they're having to spend more on their necessities and that at the moment that's about Break Even so two interesting things to know. [5:52] A kind of predictor of future spending is this this huge survey that University of Michigan does every month the consumer confidence index. And when when we were kind of in the peak of recovery from the first wave of covid-19, that index was a leading indicator that said consumers were starting to feel good about the economy and it hit like it's this index it over a hundred today it's sitting at 71, which is the lowest point since January of 2019 it's not, like a historic low or anything like that that you know you go like oh it's way below normal, but it does appear that consumers are in general feeling less good about the economy than they were, um you know just a month or two ago now there's a bunch of political news out right now and there was fear of government shutdown that we've already averted and those kinds of things have a big impact on the consumer index oh. [6:49] Um I that consumer index doesn't have a perfect correlation with spending so I don't spend too much time thinking about it but just to know, that's a number that had been favorable and is kind of shrinking down. A big one we talk about is unemployment because people don't have jobs it's hard for them to spend on Goods obviously at the beginning of the pandemic we had a huge spike in unemployment, unemployment is actually pretty good right now we're at five point two percent. The kind of pre-pandemic average was about four so we're not all the way back to pre-pandemic average but that pre-pandemic. [7:22] Point was a historic low so historically 5.2 percent is pretty decent for unemployment. Um so like most most analysts would say that's a favorable indicator the two things to know there is, that's based on the people that are seeking jobs and not getting it there actually is a ton of people that kind of took themselves out of the workforce we. Fully understand where all those people went but a big chunk of those people were second incomes for household so like a lot of women. That like maybe don't have as good a help childcare as they had before or more school challenges or things and so they haven't gone back to the workforce and many of them are seeking work so they don't show up in the unemployment number so. Just be aware like household incomes are somewhat stressed because of that factor and then as we've talked about before on this show like as of July. People that make over $60,000 a year the unemployment is actually ten percent better than it was before the pandemic so they're doing great. And the low-income people that are making less than $30,000 a year their unemployment is still 21 percent lower than it was. The beginning of the pandemic so so a little bit of a bifurcated recovery on the jobs thing. [8:38] One of the reasons that we historically have that we had high unemployment was because there's all these rich benefits this enhanced unemployment benefits that people got that all expired last week. So if people were staying at home because they could make more and unemployment that that justification probably ended. The bad news is that ended in 26 States over two months ago and in general the data shows that people did not rush back to work when it ended. So there's not necessarily a reason to think a ton more people are going to rush back to work now that that it's ended everywhere but we'll have to see. Um the other macroeconomic things all these natural disasters are negative to the economy so you know when hurricane Ida takes a hundred billion dollars out of the economy that's a bummer. Um [9:25] Another hugely favorable one in the one that most of us are hanging our hats on that are looking for a good holiday is the savings rate and this is the most unprecedented recession of all times. Unemployment you know went way up at the peak of the pandemic but so did savings which has never happened before, and part of that was because we had all this stimulus money we were pouring into the economy but the savings rate normally hovers around 8% it shot up to 32 percent during the peak of the pandemic, it's way off of that Peak it's a nine point six which is still a little higher than it was before the pandemic and that. All that extra money that a lot of household socked away because they got the stimulus and they spent less during the the peak of the pandemic. [10:18] Arguably puts consumers in a good place to spend for this holiday the counter-argument would be all that stimulus. Is mostly over there still are you know very lumpy employment situation and a lot of that savings has dwindled, um so we'll see how it goes, um but then the last fact I'm going to throw up before I go at Scott get a word in edgewise is that the stock market has done phenomenally right and, we're way up from the pre-pandemic level and so the investor class and people that have you know as a meaningful portion of their wealth. Tied to the market. Did terrific right and so if there is economic uncertainty and instability in this economy it's bifurcated and it's the lower-income people that like do not have equity in the stock market. Um there were her but roll all that up and the the professional analysts feel like. Macroeconomic situation all to all in is pretty good and of course when rich people do well that help certain sectors of the economy quite a bit right and at the moment luxury and jewelry are doing phenomenally well for example so. That's kind of my snapshot of the macroeconomy Scott anything you'd violently disagree with or anything you pay particular attention to. Scot: [11:45] I think I think that's right I think you know there's a lot of folks that feel the inflation the CPI isn't the right inflation number it's kind of this old metric. This basket of goods and doesn't capture a lot of things you know there's, I follow a lot of the crypto people and, so there's been a huge wealth creation through crypto and that whole world which is kind of interesting and then you know there's there's a feeling that the FED has pumped so much cash into the system that is just sloshing around and kind of crazy ways which is why you saw that savings rate kind of go up as high as it did and you know they're they're talk track goes that that's why we're not seeing as much employment where folks have taken so those free free dollars and and you know. Done something with it so that they don't need a job now or they're going to be less likely to enter the workforce but I think at all. Yeah I would say I agree with the analysts on that it's going to be a pretty good holiday. [12:51] But I think the problem we'll get into that as I just don't think there's going to be a thing to buy so I don't not sure if it matters. Jason: [12:56] So step one American families probably have some money to spend okay so now as we've already alluded to the next challenges what is the supply chain look like and what could they spend it on and Scott what's your kind of read there. Scot: [13:13] Yes Supply chains from those things we always talk about but then you know in in your mind you have this kind of linkage these things linked together I remember as a kid when you would cut out the little construction paper strips and make the little chain to go around. The holiday tree there II reminds me of that and we kind of vaguely talk about it as this big, big thing and we want to really unpack it on this episode so as a summary you know there's when you make a product let's say it's one time in a million familiar with right now is a vehicle that which is one of the more complex products or even a. You're relatively simple product like an electronic toy or an apparel item or almost anything it's going to have first of all it. It's going to have component parts right so there's going to be some form of pieces that go into that I kind of mentally think of them as the Lego blocks that make up that item so if it's a cool trendy trench coat there's going to be obviously fabric buttons may be a variety of fabrics and things like that so there's generally it's hard to make any product without there being at least 10 inputs and then many times, thousands if not tens or hundreds of thousands as you get into like iPhones and vehicles and stuff like that. [14:33] So that's important to remember is each one of those component parts has a supply chain right and you can't make a widget until its component pieces are all there so what happens is we're seeing this really interesting and it's hard to know the root cause or theirs some of the economic stuff you talked about is part of it we're we're just having labor shortages that cause things but then you know we'll talk about some of this there's we import a lot of our goods from China and they're having all kinds of issues of their own there's covid related things non-covered related things but generally let's think about the supply chain and kind of the broad sense of you have typically the bulk of goods are made offshore some of them are are made on Shore but let's kind of assume in this example A lot of these products are coming from offshore or at least income the many of the components maybe there's some assembly in the US but at least the the components for a any widget are made offshore so that's number one so that has to be made in a factory somewhere and then shipped here so there's the port of origin so it leaves a port in a foreign land and then needs to come on its way to the United States for a consumer to buy it. That Journey can go a variety of different ways will to it can go by boat or air, the standard way that products are moved is through containers so you by everyone seemed these containers there's all these cool. [15:57] We just opened up here a restaurant container Village kind of a thing so you have those containers their specialized boats that carry these and and or you can put them on airplanes. So then they get on a boat let's say the bulk of products do go by boat there is some by are then they have to go over the sea and then they get to a destination port so there's you know there's two ports involved with every product that comes across in a container then it has to be unloaded from that boat you've probably seen these giant cranes somewhere. [16:29] Fun Star Wars fact those are the that's where George Lucas got the idea for at-ats he saw some of the cranes and one of the ports on the west coast and thought of what if you had a giant walking robots that look like that so those have to be unloaded and then typically you're going to put them on either so then when they get to the United States in one of the ports they're going to be offloaded onto either a truck and then part of the truck that's really critical in this is called a chassis so if you've ever seen you've probably driven by a million of these container trucks but if you take the container off that's the chassis part as you've got the front part of the truck, then you've got the chassis which holds the container and then the container sits squarely on there it's pretty clever if you think about how it's all been designed or that same container can be put over on rail so there are specialized railroad cars for carrying containers and then and then the product goes on its way then it makes it to a warehouse and then it goes to from that fulfillment center it gets distributed many times do a couple maybe from a big kind of inbound fulfillment center to some regionals to some locals and maybe even one step closer to kind of hyper local and then it gets into the last mile delivery part of the world so it gets onto the virtual shelves and then is sold and goes into that last month so [17:52] There's there's a lot that has to happen right in there and we're going to go through some of the things that are not working right now and you know like any any chain any. There's at least common denominator problem so all that can work great and if you don't have Last Mile Vehicles then you've got a problem or, the factories aren't making things fast enough then the whole chain is compressed and you've got this other set of problems and you know where we are now is almost every single part of that chain I just walked through is is kind of you know sport or in a bad situation right now and we'll take you through some examples. Jason let's start with factories what's going on there. Jason: [18:34] Yeah well a couple challenges with factories so obviously the we have the most factories in China and the good news with China is. Covid is mostly under control they definitely have had a. A spike from from Delta they almost had had down a zero before Delta. [18:55] Because of their their concerns about the the virus they have China has what's called the zero covid policy and what that means is. If they have a single case of covid they will they will shut down an entire business or. Even a sector of business so while there's not huge outbreaks of covid and factories right now. There have been a bunch of examples where only a few cases of covid showed up and that caused a factory to be closed for two weeks so there there have been some disruptions with the Chinese factories. But the bigger problem has been that it, from before and in the very beginning of covid a lot of manufacturing got Diversified and moved out of China right and so the second biggest manufacturer of apparel behind China right now is Vietnam. Vietnam has had a lot of trouble with Delta and about a third of the factories in Vietnam are shut down right now so a lot of the factories that make goods are not making as many Goods either because. [19:56] They don't have very good access to vaccines and they're having covid problems or they have really rigid government policies like China. And then forecasting a future problem that's a huge Debbie Downer, is China is actually experiencing a real energy crisis right now and China always has to kind of, ration electricity and they give quotas at the beginning of every year to these factories and factories often have to shut down because they exceed their quotas. Well this year like they have less. [20:31] Energy capacity in China for a variety of reasons in the cost of coal has gone way up. Um there's there's fixed pricing for for energy in China and said the producers can't charge you more even though the cold cost more and so they have less incentive to make it which means there's less energy and so there's a lot of fear that there's going to be a ton more slowdowns of Chinese factories because of this looming energy crisis so all of those things. Our kind of conspiring to make like the amount of product available from the factories like. Significantly inconsistent and hard to. Scot: [21:12] And then say the call thing and because I have read a couple articles on this and I haven't under Center so they're in an attempt to be green they've lowered the price of coal so cold manufacturers have stopped making goals that. Jason: [21:26] So I think that's what the the green thing has a significant impact here but the the communist country they set the the. It's a. [21:37] The energy industry is a tightly regulated industry and so the prices are fixed so that so the government decides the beginning of the year what the price of electricity is going to be. [21:47] So then these factories are only allowed to charge that price or plus or minus 10% of that price, and coal is four hundred percent more expensive so a lot of factories don't want a lot of power plants don't want to make energy electricity from coal right now because they can't do it profitably, they don't have permission from the government to charge for hundred percent for their electricity but they're having to pay 400 percent for their coal so. There is less production because of that it is also absolutely true that China has some, zero emissions by wants a 2060 things and they have concrete milestones in place every year and so even before cover that constrain how much electricity they were going to be able to make this year with current production means. And it meant that factories had a quota, um and and often that means Factories do periodically shut down when they use up their quota factories are rushing to get more efficient so they're all its, it's like everything it creates all these Downstream effects whatever equipment you use to make your stuff there's probably a more energy efficient version of that equipment that you now want to buy. But it's hard to get your hands on so all the factories are competing for the more energy-efficient versions of all this this materials, but the it's likely that more factories are going to be shut down for longer this year than ever before because of energy shortages. Scot: [23:14] And I saw an interesting graphic I forget I think is there Bloomberg or Wall Street Journal where the government then said well if you're going to shut down energy they created these zones and they put like a lot of that Apple manufacturing plants in The Greener zones that we get more power but then they neglected a lot of the input parts so. But the factories that can make the iPhone 13 or operating but they're sitting there idle because the the red zones that aren't getting a lot of power or only able to run like half a shift are. Jason: [23:44] Per your point like even if the Lego factories allowed to make Lego castles if they're not allowed to make red blocks. It's tough to make a lot of weight so castles so that that is yeah. It's a mess and then to give you an idea how cute it is normally they only shut down the the industrial areas there's so much constrained energy now that they're starting to shut down residential areas so people are. Are like having their power in their residences turned off as well. Scot: [24:14] Interesting and then I've been tracking ports here in the US very closely but what are you seeing at ports of origin in other countries. Jason: [24:24] Well this is one we're very publicly this zero covid policy that China has instituted has come into play. So that that all the biggest ports in the world are in China the third largest port in the world is divided into four terminals one of the four terminals was just shut down for two weeks because of a single. Positive test of covid and so that again to the extent that the factories are making stuff and they need to load up all those containers, um if they have to stop loading for 2 weeks that that creates a real lumpiness in the in the supply chain and that is a particularly hard thing to predict right like if you're just saying like oh man of. Factory you know has a bunch of sick workers it's going to shut down you can kind of watch that and see it coming but what you can't see coming is, you know a very small number of cases having a very material impact on the supply chain like these these ports that are shutting down and so the. The those impacts are sort of outsized on the supply chain at the moment. Scot: [25:34] Yeah and then so so now we've got our products you know, if they can make it through this Gauntlet that we've already laid out they're going to get on a boat and they are going to go get packed into a container and there's a fun if you're a business you're trying to get as much of this product into a container as possible because it's pretty much all you can eat once you once you buy a container there's fractional containers whatnot and because of there's a shortage in containers and then the cost to send these containers has gone way up so right now as we record this the cost there's actually an index you can look at this so if you were will put a link to show notes but if you Google Freight Fredo's fre IG HT o s index there's an index that tracks this and we have hit a record of 20500 86 average dollars to send a container and that's twice what it was in July of this year and that was twice of what it was in January so we effectively you know in July it was about ten thousand dollars and in January as about five thousand dollars now another interesting Factor here is depending on how many units you put in a container you divide that that unit cost right so if you're putting I'll keep the math easy a thousand units in one of these containers which would be something relatively big you're going to you know you just added effectively another. Yeah. [26:57] Let's see I should have smelled your $15 to the product just in kind of Landing cost with this with this increase so whatever your cost is on a per unit it's gone up effectively 4X since January so that's a factor to consider. [27:15] And what I'm what I'm hearing from people on the ground is you'll go bid and you kind of get get in front of this number right now so you're actually out there bidding today 30,000 to get a container and then you think you'll have one and then they'll say oh you know we need to re-evaluate that because they can the shipping company I'm talking to is now saying is 33,000 so there's this like running auction to get. Space on these boats that are coming over because of some of the rest of the supply chain that will talk about so. [27:46] So how about are so that's that's what it looks like by boat what are you seeing on the air side. Jason: [27:51] Yeah and obviously the most cost-effective way to get all this stuff here is via boat so you'd prefer to do that but when the boats aren't available or if you you need stuff considerably faster like a, in Good Times it takes about about 40 days to move a container from China to the west coast of the US so. Some Goods do come via air and little known fact 50% of Air Freight that comes into the u.s. comes on the bottom of, passenger airplanes right so it's not it's not FedEx and UPS planes flying from China to the US cargo planes it's, it's the bottom of these passenger planes and guess what is not happening right now is. International so there's just way less flights and said there's way less capacity for this Air Freight and so both, because there's more demand for Air Freight because of all the problems with the ocean Freight and because there's less Supply that the air option has you know been dramatically diminished from where it would normally be. Scot: [28:56] Yep so then so then you decide okay well I've got to put on a boat you do that you wait your 40 days and then what you find out is your delayed for a very long time because the heart problem is the u.s. ports are all pretty much maxed out so we've kind of done this very big under-investing in our ports so one of our our biggest one is in Los Angeles at Long Beach and then we have Savannah New York New Jersey and then there's a lot of secondary and tertiary ports but those are the big ones and there's another index that Bloomberg, puts out which is effectively the number of boats that are anchored offshore and you know what you want to you never want to Anchor these things because effectively they're just sitting there all that product just sitting there you know. Doing nothing waiting and the reason the reason why they're sitting there is the ports are they can't unload the products fast enough. [29:55] There's a million reasons why we'll talk about that in a second but this just actually ticked up over there's over 40 boats, and this is interesting I've read a data point this has 74 Los Angeles and 40 I think there's 40 anchored in 30 actively kind of being done there's these Maps if you look at my Twitter feed I just tweeted one to just show you know the port and the congestion there's just all these boats just sitting there waiting to come on shore I have a friend that lives in LA and they can just as they drive around they can just see the boats out there just fact it's very unusual time frame. Jason: [30:30] One of the supply chain guys I work with suggested that we should start a new company Uber barge where we deliver like In and Out Burgers to all these boats that are stuck offshore. Scot: [30:39] Someone someone tried to actually get a helicopter to go out one to get their container often. You can't do that because if you've ever seen these things are stacked like 50 deeper someone is crazy you can't just say I really need that one right there so this this index just ticked over 70 for the first time ever since has been created which is just just crazy. [31:00] And so why is it taking so long to offload the boats well we have under invested in these things and then we have this discontinued problem with the supply chain. Number one there's not enough people to I think it's longshoreman there's a lot of these Union type jobs that you hear about that do this so there's a longshoreman or the ones that offload products for a long time due to covid they were only running like half the number of shifts that used to so they have actually spun that up, they're running more shifts but now there's a shortage of chassis and then because of that. [31:37] You know if you don't have chassis you can still off load the boat but now you have to put it into kind of medium term or short term storage and then all that is full so there's not enough chassis there's not enough truck drivers if there is chassis and then if there's not chassis all the storage is full and then, the one when a product comes off the boat at the Port it can either go by truck or rail the whole rail system is all jammed up as well the this is interesting I read this one article that. Near you in the Joliet train yard which is one of the biggest ones in middle of the country they're so jammed up they have over 8,000 containers stacked there waiting for more training capacity and then some some days the trains are backed up for 25 miles waiting as they're loading these containers on there to try to do this, normal turnaround for a chassis to go at a port to deliver something to where it's going and come back is three and a half days due to all these various shortages that is extended out to 17 days so that's pretty crazy. A big factor in this port jam up is also the shortage of drivers and I call them CDL Drivers which is a commercial driver's license. [32:49] To drive one of these 18-wheelers that's going to carry a container you have to have a you know a certification for a certain type of vehicle there's It's relatively, no time-consuming to go get the certification and the number of drivers that have this is actually decreasing over time as they age out and enough people are coming into the profession so I read one article and this was by one of the one of the professional groups of CDL drivers that there's about 240,000 shortfall of CDL Drivers compared, kind of where the demand is there's about you call it to and 50,000 fewer drivers than they need so we're seeing you know I think I can remember was you or someone but Amazon and Walmart are ineffectively gunfighter these people where they're charged their they're paying crazy signing bonuses and hourly rates and salaries for any kind of truck drivers and so because they're the biggest. Employers of these things they tend to have the better economics and its really starving out other parts of the market as they absorb all the available CDL drivers. Jason: [33:57] Yeah that Walmart's paying a hundred and for a new driver $160,000 a year and eight thousand dollar signing bonus. Scot: [34:04] Yeah yes it's not uncommon uncommon thing to see out there it's pretty crazy, so that's what's going on at the ports it is a hot mess on this side as well so even if you are fortunate enough to get your product here to the US then you know you're looking at probably an extra 40 days I think is kind of you know what everyone's saying right now and that's average it can take a lot longer the LA Port is so jammed up that people are are they're rerouting you know rerouting boats across the sand getting them to other other ports but there are no like there's one in Georgia and it's the Savannah one and it's getting backed up I just saw they authorized building this this kind of effectively opening up a big giant parking area to put containers and that's going to give them some more storage capacity but you know where if you add up those, here we are you know in October and you start adding these things together the the holidays pretty much baked at this point right there's you maybe have 15 to 20 days of window here for stuff you already ordered. 80 days ago to kind of get here but none of this stuff is going to get fixed fast that's going to be part of the problem. Jason: [35:17] Yeah yeah if you follow the earning calls like Nike for example like dramatically lowered their guidance and they said Hey look it's it's cost four times as much to get a container of shoes here and the container takes twice as long to get here, and so we're just not going to have the supply to hit our original guidance and and Nikes better this than a lot of other people so it's a. [35:41] Pretty prominent problem and then there's all these secondary impacts right so you mentioned the math of the container right like you'd like to fill up that 40-foot container with Goods if your goods only take up 90%. Ordinarily you'd put someone else's Goods in the last 10% to try to make it more. Cost effective and efficient and share those costs but when the unloading is so gummed up what you don't want to do is have a secondary process where that container comes off the boat has to get re packed your stuff goes One Way their stuff goes another way, so people are actually shipping containers less full than they normally would which is entirely counterintuitive for what you would expect. The boats are all slowing down because they can use less gas to come here and 80 days then to come here in 40 days because there's no place to unload them. Um and the the supply chain guys I'm like we've been helping a lot of retailers hire truckers lately and they kind of summarize it real simply like the average commercial truck driver was 55 years old with multiple comorbidities a bunch of them. Retired and all the trucking schools that can teach people to get these licenses shut down for covid so there were no new licenses being issued for like. [36:54] Year and so there's just this this huge acute problem. And then you know without those truck drivers with the train problems and Barge problems of your on the Mississippi there's just like no place to move all those goods. You mentioned people are moving the boats from from some ports to secondary ports. That helps somewhat but the biggest cargo ships can't even fit in these ports right so I Long Beach the one of the most advanced Sports we have certainly the most advanced on the West Coast, um [37:27] Can't take the two biggest class of ships it can only take the third biggest class of ships and then as soon as you divert that ship to Portland instead of Long Beach. The the that class of ships won't won't fit there and so like there's there's a limited option to just move the stuff around so we're just we're gummed up like never before and most scary of all Gap and their earnings call kind of said like Hey we're loading our guidance and we're going to very lumpy inventory and we don't see any alleviation of these inventory challenges until at least 2020 3. Scot: [38:06] Yeah in the Auto World we're having a huge problem here where there's a chip shortage and then. [38:14] Another problem is you spend down these factories they don't just get spun back up because all the component parts are you know they stop ordering them and then those factories and everything so so even as chips are starting to come in a lot of vehicles can't be made because there's some other component that now is stuck in one of these containers that that were talking about I read this other interesting article where Coca-Cola has several of their bottling facilities that are down waiting on replacement parts so they went and basically least 20 or 40 bulk ships they didn't even worry about getting containers and they just jumped onto those ships the pieces they need to make their factories work and and are bring him over in this kind of crazy never done before way for a big company. Jason: [38:58] Yeah and I guess that that's one last point on this supply chain thing. It definitely is favoring the biggest players in every industry right so if you're the you know the biggest receivers of goods in the US. You're still being impacted by all of this but you're first in line for what capacity does exist and you you mentioned the games that the Brokers are playing with the price of containers that's going to happen a lot more to the independent shipper than it is the you know number one or number two shipper for that port and so. Well this this is a pain for every retailer in America it's going to be less painful to Walmart and Amazon then it's going to be to the, the medium-sized specialty retailer for. [39:49] And I was just going to point out I think you saw this as well as got but like Salesforce kind of put together a holiday forecast and they looked at all these supply chain problems and they're estimating, that this is going to add about 233 billion dollars in extra supply chain cost to holiday sales for the US so that's. Going to come like straight out of margins basically or or drive more inflation. Scot: [40:13] Yeah that's for the products to get here there's this another side of that equation where which is the opportunity cost right because you know. There's not gonna be a lot of exciting merchandise on the Shelf so we're what's opportunity cost of that we'll have to kind of. We'll get to that I guess we talked about forecast so what what holiday behaviors are feeding into this. Jason: [40:34] Yeah so tricky this one is there wild swings both ways right so you think if you remember at the beginning of covid there. Fundamental changes that happen people spend a lot less on travel they spend a lot less on restaurants they spend a lot more on their homes and they spent a lot more grocery stores right and so then as, people got more comfortable as people start getting vaccinated as infection rates are going down we started seeing all those things swing back right and you started seeing, a lot more bookings that are being be you saw a lot more Airline reservations you saw a lot more traffic coming to stores and you certainly saw a lot more people going back to restaurants. Then Delta hit. And we saw a dip again and people started returning to the the the kind of earlier covid behaviors not as dramatically as the first wave. [41:25] You kind of had a second wave and so predicting which of those, behaviors are going to be at the at the peak for holiday is really hard right now so retailers are looking at consumer sentiment and Doug mcmillon in his investor call he's like hey. Our consumer has told a strongly they want to have a normal holiday that they want to sit down with their family and have a meal, they want to travel they want to do the normal things and there's a strong desire and that if it is remotely safe they will do it and Doug's I kind of under his breath comment was. [42:05] Even if it's not safe they're probably going to do it right so, his viewing is there's there's so much fatigue in all of these like covid change behaviors that were going to see a significant return, you know closer to pre covid behaviors but you know we are we are seeing some signs go the other way, in the u.s. store traffic never fully recovered we are still down about ten percent versus pretty covid levels in China store traffic totally recovered and then Delta hit and store traffic drop back down, 30% below pre-pandemic levels and so since China has historically been about 4 months ahead of us. That that would predict that we're going to see another drop in. Um store traffic which again doesn't mean people won't spend it means they're going to buy more online instead of in store and that exacerbates all of The Last Mile problems that we talked about last year and we're going to talk about it. [43:09] Again this year so it's really risky to predict. What's going to happen with the coded behaviors people were starting to buy a lot of clothes again after having not buying clothes in here and now the closed sales are slowing down and then we talked about. Apparel is one of the categories most impacted by all these supply chain issues so there just may not be close to buy and so really hard to predict that stuff. Um but what I can tell you is retailers now have a couple of reasons to desperately get you to shop earlier right one reason is they're not going to have very much stuff and they don't want to be the Grinch that caused you to miss Christmas so they desperately want you to come in early, and give yourself the best chance to get the stuff you want so, the every retailer is more loudly than ever before trying to incentivise and entice customers to shop early. [44:03] Also if this ends up being another digital Christmas where people shop a lot more online than they do in stores, we have a huge problem with the last mile we don't have enough capacity in FedEx ups and u.s. post office to deliver twice as many packages over holiday, and so we need to spread that those those orders out over more days and so for all of those reasons we're seeing retailers start their sales earlier than ever so. To kind of paint you a promotional picture Amazon Prime day normally is in summer it historically celebrated Amazon's birthday which is in July. So then the pandemic kids they can't have a July sale so they have an October sale and it went really well. So this year they went back to Summer but they went to earlier summer they had the sale in June and a lot of us think they did it earlier in June for one of two reasons either they hate their own C fo and wanted him to have to talk. On earnings calls about the sale being in a different quarter every year for the last three years or. They were having a sale earlier to make room for a second big sale they intend to have this year during holiday to kind of repeat the success of. [45:11] Of holiday Prime Day last year and we haven't seen any all the announcements yet but Amazon has already announced a 30 day. Beauty and personal care sale starting in October of this year Target match that and said hey we're going to start our deal days in October, and we're price-matching for the whole holiday so if if you don't believe us and you think we're just making a joke about these early sales and you think there's going to be better sales waiter know if you buy it early will guarantee you, that will match any lower prices that you see anywhere for the rest of holiday so targets leaning heavily into that. And we think most retailers are going to launch their sales. Earlier than ever before to try to pull in these these early Shoppers because of all the supply chain and inflation issues. The sales aren't going to be as good as they usually are like that what used to be 40 percent off is going to be 25% off but what deals they do have are going to be earlier in the year to try to drive those, those sales earlier. [46:21] And people aren't going to get everything they want they're going to be limited inventory and so what's going to happen people are going to get more gift cards people are going to celebrate the holiday later and we're going to sell more stuff in January January is always a good holiday month anyway but January is going to be disproportionately large this year because of the lumpy supply chain think so, if you think of holiday as generally like being a strong peak in October between that that the kind of turkey five, this holiday more than ever before that spending starting in October and is going to last all the way through January. Scot: [46:58] And then as we get to the last mile we're definitely have another ship again so we've got we haven't increased our capacity hardly any because you can't really buy Vans and the everyone's renting Vans and there's just this fixed number of biliary vehicles and if we're going to have this Less store traffic even more e-commerce than last year even if you throw you know maybe. [47:23] Low middle digit low single digits on there like five or 7% or something well we effectively had 98, we can only deliver like 97% of the packages last year so it's going to make it a now will only be a little deliver maybe 90% of the packages so it's going to be really tough delivery, set up coming into the holiday. Jason: [47:46] I think the like some data points I saw the that are alarming like so number one. All the Fulfillment centers have an average turnover rate of like four hundred percent a year right so they're having a hard time hiring people and keeping people. FedEx in their earnings call said that like we just can't staff some of our distribution hubs so we're having to reroute packages in a less efficient manner, because for example we only have sixty percent of our labor force in our Portland Hub right so ordinarily they would try to, be at a hundred and twenty percent of their labor in these hubs for holiday with all this seasonal labor and this year. [48:24] They can't even fulfill all the permanent jobs they have so there's not going to be a seasonal Flex. For the main carriers you know the Retailer's do a lot of seasonal hiring for stores but they're prioritizing the seasonal hiring for their fulfillment centers over the stores because they're so. Worried about enough labor to fulfill all these packages and then you know when when FedEx and UPS have less capacity. What do they do they smartly charge more for it so we've seen gas surcharges we've seen holiday surcharges and and they're now announcing their rate hikes for January and FedEx announced the largest rate hike they've had in the last ten years so on average, it's almost six percent as 5.9 percent rate hike it varies wildly depending on the class of service so some kinds of shippers are going to get hit much harder. Um and just like last year all of the the big shippers have a quota and they're not going to be allowed to ship more more packages. The maybe one silver lining in this is that. Because readers are likely to be more successful in spreading the demand out this year than last year that's going to help a little bit and. [49:37] As a as challenges everyone's going to be with the capacity last year there were political challenges that that particularly got the US Post Office sideways which is a big part of this whole chain. And they don't anticipate that that will be as bad this year and so there is absolutely going to be ship again in 2.0 this year with the, the The Last Mile but the most of the analysts I'm talking to are saying the first mile is going to be so disrupted this year that the last mile is going to seem. Less severe in comparison whereas last year the the holiday challenges were all about the last mile. Scot: [50:16] Yeah and you know the double-edged sword of there not being enough product is maybe there just won't be enough product and it won't you should be getting but if whatever there is is going to get jammed up I think. Jason: [50:29] Yeah so that's a great transition to so like that's a lot of Doom and Gloom what's going to happen for Holiday should we all be shorting the retail stocks like what's. What's going to happen. And spoiler alert I don't know well we'll talk a little bit about our educated guesses but maybe before we do we can walk through some of the the forecast from the the brave souls that have been willing to share their holiday forecast. Scot: [50:56] Yeah the one the one I saw was from Salesforce and they, they say that e-commerce is going to be up 7% versus kind of that huge surge last year which was like you know fifty percent so they're coming in kind of with a moderate 7% growth which which is done yeah I think that would be the probably the slowest e-commerce growth since 2008-2009 yeah. Jason: [51:24] 2008. Scot: [51:26] Yeah that's that's the one I was tracking and you know when I read through the bullet points it made sense they're definitely putting a pretty wet blanket on things due to the this kind of quote-unquote Supply pain. Jason: [51:38] Yeah and it is tricky so they were the only one I've seen that's done an e-commerce forecast right and I would say that's the most uncertain because. Of we just don't know whether people are going to go back to stores or whether they're going to be worried about health and ordering online when they start having constrained. Um supplies is that gonna. Push them to online more because they can hunt more places or is that going to entice them to go to the store because they can use their eyes to see the inventory for themselves like there's, there's a lot of variability in that e-commerce number but I would remind people even as low as 7 percent sounds its. 7% on top of the huge bases from last year right so it's it's that's not a decline in e-commerce by any means that's a slowing of the increase just as a reminder for. People. But then I did see several like of the other the kind of traditional Consultants put together an overall holiday forecast right so beIN predicted that they were going to they thought holiday was going to be up seven percent from last year. [52:45] Deloitte said that they thought holiday was going to be up between seven and nine percent from last year. And MasterCard said they think holidays going to be up 7.4 percent from last year so. To put all three of those numbers in context those are all huge numbers. Um last year was the best holiday year in 10 years and sales were up 10% but the average is about 6% so saying we're going to grow if. You know these three things kind of all averaged out to about seven percent growth if we're here we go. If all holiday store an e-commerce gross 7% on top of the ten percent from last year, that's a phenomenal holiday and so that says, that these guys are pretty confident that the consumer is going to spend even if they can't find exactly what they want right that the supply chain is going to be painful but that the all the macroeconomic stuff we talked about at the beginning is going to win out and consumers are going to spend a lot of money this holiday I. [53:49] I want to believe this I'm going to be pleasantly surprised if it plays out like that right and my um, the the one caveat I'll say is that us retail is incredibly Diversified right and so for every category that's going to get shellacked by the supply chain or by changes in covid behaviors. Some other category is going to benefit right and so. It is true that the holiday could absolutely hit these numbers like I'll remind people that cars are 25 percent of retail sales gas is another huge chunk of retail sales. Some of these forecasts have those things in some don't some of these forecasts are for November and December some are for November December and January like everybody has a different definition of retail and a different definition of holiday so, you can't really apples-to-apples any of these but I pulled all the US Department of Commerce data and again last year November through January 10 percent growth, average of the last ten 10 years is about 6% growth so 7% growth is a. A terrific number and. I don't know I could see it happening if it happens it's going to be because there was a we had the most Monster January ever because I just don't think there's going to be enough Goods on the Shelf in November and December to do. Scot: [55:17] Yeah I'll take a so I think the winners are going to be the companies that have the most power and smartest supply chain operators so I think Walmart and Amazon. Maybe Target I don't know them as well do they have a you think they feel like they have a pretty dialed in. Jason: [55:33] They Walmart and Target both in their earnings said like look our inventory isn't going to be isn't where we want it it's not going to be where we want it but we we in general are feeling good and neither one lowered its guidance for holiday in their last earnings call so they both felt that they were going to weather the storm but you know below that you go look at like a Bed Bath and Beyond and they're like look there's no way we can hit our numbers with the supply we're gonna get. Scot: [56:00] Will they miss this quarter and if you miss this quarter you're just going to get worse the next quarter Seth. Jason: [56:04] Exactly exactly. Scot: [56:06] It's a poop storm now and it's gonna be a bloodbath and in 90 days yes I think I think if I kind of do the calculus on that I think those three guys win I think everyone else is net negative and. You know I don't think those three are big enough let's say they represent Amazon's kind of half of e-commerce only think about e-commerce the rest of retail is. That's your bailiwick yeah Amazon's half, yeah I could see it being flat to down five percent because. Amazon Walmart and Target doing decent isn't it be enough for to make up for the whole that it's created there so yeah so that's kind of, where I see it it's going to be the big get bigger and stronger and because they you know they have Prime, they have more technologies that this has been on their radar longer they have more containers they have more trucks they have more dollars to spend on solving these problems they're going to be the winners so that's going to be you know it is going to be I think a bad year for the small medium sized business the incumbent brands that are just getting their legs under them and you know having to kind of have a Miss effectively miss a holiday because you couldn't get a bunch of product it's going to be be a rough rough year for everybody. Jason: [57:25] Yeah no I in a way it's going to be the exact opposite of last year when covid first hit nobody obviously had Advance warning or was prepared for this and so a secondary impact was a bunch of eCommerce sites that didn't traditionally get a lot of consumer visits, got a lot of Trials because Amazon constrained FBA in Amazon head supply chain problems right and so suddenly you were looking to get your instant pot from Bed Bath & Beyond suddenly a bunch of people are looking to see what eBay had, that hasn't shopped eBay in five or ten years right so a lot of those kind of second-tier eCommerce sites got extra visits as people were. Trying new address the supply chain shortages this year I think we're going to have exactly the opposite there's going to be a ton of supply chain shortages there's going to be a lot of, news stories every day about supply chain shortages and the big players with the best infrastructure in the most advanced supply chain planning, like the Amazons and Walmarts of the world and and targets, are going to be the winners and it's going to be a lot harder for those specialty retailers and Regional retailers to compete unfortunately. Scot: [58:41] Yeah I think that that is the setup and we will continue so that hopefully that gives everyone an idea of the big talk in the industry and you were just at an industry event is this what everyone was talking about Jason. Jason: [58:55] Yeah yeah slightly less than I would have expected I mean it was a huge topic everyone understands the supply chain thing. I do think it was the first conversation a lot of you know customer experience folks and people that you know we're kind of had their head down in their own in their own Silo you know we're suddenly getting their eyes open to the fact that like. Yeah your customer experience is going to stink at there's no products on the. Scot: [59:20] Mix the CX person's job a lot easier they just you know just take the holiday off. Jason: [59:26] Yeah and so you know it is interesting though again like. [59:31] You know we may we may hit the top line numbers and it may be from a lot less items that sold more expensively. The you know category there's going to be winning and losing categories by far and again because of the consumer health and the supply chain issues, the supply chain for diamonds is looking a lot better than the supply chain for Budget shoes and so you know you just may see what jury where you know you say you sell a few things for a while, do better you know where there's extra scarcity then you know some of these low-margin high-volume consumer goods and so I think. [1:00:08] My key takeaways for everyone is it's going to be a very lumpy like the averages will be interesting we should all follow them but but every. Um retailer and every category is going to experience a very different holiday and there just is more uncertainty than there has been in the last 30 years of retail so like for anyone, to definitively say this is how it is going to play out I think is super risky because there's so many things that could go either way at this point, will consumers you know by another toy when they can't get their first choice will consumers go to a restaurant you know or not will consumers take a vacation or not. You know all of these these will they pay 5% more for something or not like there's just so much uncertainty that you know this is going to be. Holiday that really rewards people that do good scenario planning and are prepared for any eventuality. Scot: [1:01:06] Absolutely and we will keep you posted here on the Jason Scott show but hopefully this gives everyone kind of a framework to work within and we'll be updating various components of the supply pain as we get closer to Holiday. Jason: [1:01:22] And until next week happy commercing!