GeoPod: The Geopolitics Podcast by Tenjin Consulting

This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander and Georgina Downer chat about Georgina's new job as Executive Director of the Robert Menzies Institute.    The Hartlepool by-election in the UK was a disaster for British Labour. What is the future of the Labour Party (and Australian Labor Party, for that matter)? It's been a tough time for opposition parties of any colour, but there are significant challenges for parties of the centre-left who are increasingly seeing their working class base move further and further away from them.    Labour also did badly in the Scottish Parliament election. Scotland is no longer a Labour-stronghold. Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon did well and will push for another independence referendum. Will she finally get the answer she's looking for this time? We're not so sure.   Finally, Australia's relations with China continue on a downward trajectory. China has now suspended an economic dialogue with Australia in retaliation for Australia cancelling a Belt and Road MOU that the state of Victoria had struck with the PRC some years ago. And if you thought things couldn't get any worse, think again. Australia is now reviewing a 99 year lease struck between Chinese-owned Landbridge Group and the Northern Territory for the Port of Darwin. Tit for tat diplomacy a-go-go here.

This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander and Georgina Downer talk to former Australian Ambassador to China Geoff Raby about his new book, China's Grand Strategy and Australia's Future in the New Global Order.    Geoff sees China as a constrained superpower, primarily concerned about its territorial sovereignty and the survival of the Communist Party. These two things are mutually reinforcing and any threats to either China's sovereignty or the CCP will be seen off at the expense of all other interests. This means that China's "grand strategy" comes from its perceived position of weakness, not strength.    Geoff is keen to point out the historical context of China's contemporary strategic posture. Understanding, for example, its determination to conclude its civil war gives the context for its blunt force trauma approach to Hong Kong.    Unlike many China watchers, Geoff doesn't think China will exercise a military option when it comes to reclaiming Taiwan or to becoming a regional hegemon. Rather, the big challenge on the immediate horizon for China is domestic. While Xi Jinping has made himself President for life, there are some in the senior leadership of the CCP who do not want China to take the retrograde step of returning to a one man dictatorship. This means the next 18 months will be fraught as the CCP determines whether Xi continues to be General Secretary.   China's soft power, according to Geoff, is a lost cause as long as it is driven by the CCP. This is despite China spending billions on public diplomacy and outreach such as the Confucius Institutes and CGTV.    On wolf warrior diplomacy, Geoff thinks this is a case of Chinese diplomats overcompensating for what they think the leadership wants. In China, you are rarely thanked for getting something right, but if you fail you will face dire consequences. Wolf warriors reflect this thinking.   On Australia's approach to China, Geoff thinks Australian position is too influenced by the security services. Australia should hedge and engage. But when it comes to pushing back against China, Australia would be better served working in concert with other likemindeds, such as the D10 pushed by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. 

This week on GeoPod Tenjin Consulting's Alexander and Georgina Downer discuss US-China relations under the Biden Administration and the fallout of the Alaska meeting.    We unpack the history and geopolitics of the Suez Canal, including the commissioning of Verdi's opera, Aida.   We mourn the crumbling of democracy in Myanmar and the dearth of diplomatic options for Australia and others to deal with the humanitarian crisis.   Finally, Alexander responds to former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's reinterpretation of the life, death and rebirth of the Quad. 

This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander and Georgina Downer discuss the Quad or Quadrilateral Strategic Dialogue of Australia, India, Japan and the United States.    The Quad leaders - Prime Ministers Scott Morrison, Narendra Modi and Yoshihide Suga and President Joe Biden - met for the first time on 12 March. This meeting is the single biggest foreign policy step that the US Administration has taken since it was inaugurated in January this year. And it's quite clear the meeting happened in response to China's aggressive and destabilising behavior over the last year.   But where did the Quad come from? It's an idea that has been brewing for years, and its precursor is the Trilateral Strategic Dialogue of Australia, Japan and the United States for which Alexander Downer claims paternity.    Australia has a good record when it comes to developing regional architecture - Bob Hawke and the Koreans successfully proposed APEC in the 1980s, and the Howard Government made sure Australia was an inaugural member of the East Asia Summit. The Rudd Government's Asia Pacific Community fell flat, however.   So back to the Quad. The initiative rose and then fell in 2009 as Australia and India got cold feet in the face of Chinese criticism that it was an anti-China grouping.    But now it seems, the Quad's time has come. The Quad leaders issued a Joint Statement which you can read here. The big takeout was the Quad Vaccine Partnership which will deliver Covid-19 vaccines to Southeast Asia and the Pacific as a counter to Beijing's vaccine diplomacy. The leaders also agreed to establish a Climate Working Group, and a Critical and Emerging Technologies Working Group to deal with supply chain issues.    The fact that this meeting happened is significant enough, but watch this space for the momentum it will create and the coordinated actions of the members and other likemindeds over coming months and years to counter China's rise and aggression. 

This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander and Georgina Downer talk to former Australian Prime Minister the Hon John Howard AC. John Howard is Australia's second longest serving Prime Minister. Last week marked 25 years since the election of the Howard Government on 2 March 1996. The Howard Government oversaw significant changes in Australia - from responsible fiscal management, the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax, the move to a more modern workplace relations system, and the negotiation of a National Firearms Agreement in response to the Port Arthur massacre.   On foreign policy and defence, the Howard Government managed a strong US alliance which met the challenges following September 11 and the Bali bombings, while Australia's defence and security personnel brought peace and independence to East Timor and delivered greater stability within our region.   In this episode of GeoPod, we talk to Mr Howard about his observations of the type of people who choose a career in politics - a career he still feels is a noble profession. Labor has less MPs coming from the shop floor of trade unions, while the Liberal Party has more staffers. This isn't always a bad thing, but a mixture is important.     We also talk to Mr Howard about his views on the media and its influence on government, the impact of social media (sadly, he's not on Twitter!) and cancel culture on society.   Finally, we discuss Mr Howard's views on the new Biden Administration and the Australian Government's handling of its bilateral relationship with China. 

This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander and Georgina Downer talk to Bridi Rice, the Director of Policy and Advocacy at the Australian Council for International Development, about the geopolitics of international development.    Australia is a generous donor country. In the 2020-21 budget, Australia committed $4 billion to overseas development assistance. This funding was particularly focused on the Pacific and Southeast Asia, reflecting Australia's geography and areas of strategic interest. Another $408 million was earmarked for the Covid-19 response to help Pacific nations, Timor Leste and Southeast Asian nations vaccinate their populations and rebuild their economics.   Aid is an essential tool of statecraft for donor countries like Australia. Aid contributes to the soft power of the donor country but it also delivers economic, human and political development, as well as resilience to internal and external shocks.   The geopolitics of aid has never been more important for Australia. We have witnessed "chequebook diplomacy" in the Pacific where China and Taiwan trade aid for recognition. But Australia is not an innocent bystander when it comes to chequebook diplomacy. One only needs to look at the increase in Australian aid delivered to Latin America, the Caribbean and Africa during the period Australia was campaigning to secure a seat on the United Nations Security Council to understand this.   We ask Bridi to reflect on the 2014 merger of the former Australian aid agency, AusAid, with the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, and Australian attitudes to aid spending. Australian Government spending on aid has fallen to just 0.22% of Gross National Income at the same time as defence and intelligence budgets have increased. This has seen a securitisation of our international engagement at a time when international relations are more and more contested. Public sentiment is still in favour of aid and even more so now that the globe is dealing with the fallout of Covid-19.

This week on GeoPod Tenjin Consulting's Alexander and Georgina Downer discuss the recent military coup in Myanmar with Professor Nicholas Farrelly. Nich is currently the Head of Social Sciences at the University of Tasmania and is one of Australia's leading experts on Myanmar.  The military coup in Myanmar is a setback on the road to democracy for Myanmar. The country's de facto leader and national hero Aung San Suu Kyi has been arrested by the military, along with her cabinet and party members and advisors.  But how did we get here? The military claimed last November's elections at which Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy party won in a landslide were fraudulent. There is no evidence of fraud but the hope is that the military will hold fresh elections within the next year to reestablish democracy once more in this country.  The challenge for the military will be to counter the popularity of Aung San Suu Kyi, who is seen by many as a the mother of the nation. Her record as a leading democracy campaigner saw her awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991, although her defence of the Burmese military's genocidal campaign against the minority Rohingya people shocked the international community. She is an incredibly complicated international figure.  How Western governments, ASEAN, and the international community handle the Myanmar issue will be key. It will also be an early test for the Biden Administration of its diplomatic skills. Alienating and sanctioning the Tatmadaw (Myanmar's military) comes with the risk of China's influence rising, although historical enmities mean that Burmese are naturally suspicious of China's intentions. ASEAN's role will be significant in shaping the military's pathway out of this crisis. You can also read Alexander's view on Myanmar in his latest column for the Australian Financial Review.

This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander and Georgina Downer talk to the Centre for Independent Studies' Executive Director Tom Switzer about US politics and China. Tom has been an observer of US politics and foreign policy for some 30 years so he knows his stuff.  We discuss Tom's views on the new Biden Administration's  foreign policy team (pretty good) and the challenge for the US in overcoming many great obstacles: the Covid-19 pandemic which has killed 450,000 Americans, an economic crisis unparalleled since the Great Depression, racial and cultural tensions, and extreme political polarisation. Tom isn't optimistic that Biden can unite America, but Biden will be a lot more predictable than Trump. And that, in Tom's opinion, is a very good thing. Are we experiencing the end of Pax Americana? Tom thinks its now on the "ash heap of history". China is exerting more and more influence in the Indo-Pacific region and many countries are skeptical that the US has what it takes to resume its global leadership position.  China's President Xi Jinping gave an extraordinary speech at the virtual Davos summit in late January, calling for an open world economy where "differences" should be overcome "through dialogue".  Australian exporters of coal, barley, wine, beef, wood and lobsters can only wonder why this approach doesn't seem to apply to them. On Trump's legacy, Tom observes that conservative leaders across the western world (Trump, Boris Johnson in the UK and Scott Morrison in Australia) have uniquely tapped into working class values, while shirking their usual economic conservative responsibilities. Trump's problem was that he never gave up his role as a political disruptor, and the Republicans, as a result, became a party of protest, not suited to government. Look out for another outsider to take over from Trump. 

This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander and Georgina Downer talk to Executive Director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute Peter Jennings PSM about Australian strategic policy, China and what to expect from the new Biden Administration.  Peter is one of Australia's most influential voices when it comes to national and international security policy. He has served as a Deputy Secretary for Strategy in the Australian Defence Department and as Chief of Staff to the Minister for Defence in the 1990s.  It is clear that Australia is dealing with a much more complex strategic environment than ever before. A rising and assertive China coupled with a more introverted United States means Australia's strategic decisions are much harder.  According to Peter, the new Biden administration will be a welcome change from the previous four years. President Biden will seek and take advice from a group of smart and experienced foreign and defence policy professionals, who all served in the Obama Adminstrations. But the concern is the Biden team may not be as creative as they need to be to meet the demands of this new strategic situation and fall back into old habits and ideas. It will also take time for the US to convince the region that it is once again capable of real leadership. Australia will need to do what it can to shape American thinking about how it engages with its allies. It is incumbent on the Australian bureaucracy to furnish the Government with ideas about how to approach the US, but unfortunately there is so far not much new policy thinking. The 70th anniversary of ANZUS presents a unique opportunity to recast and rejuvenate the Alliance. So we need new thinking, fast.  Xi Jinping's China is much more confident in its capacity to seek strategic advantage and has over the past decade operated effectively in an opportunistic way. Its successes in the South China Sea and convincing some in the developing world that its model of authoritarian government is preferable to a liberal democratic one has given rise to overconfidence. This overconfidence may lead to extra risk taking (eg, on Taiwan) and the continuation of wolf warrior diplomacy which plays well to a domestic audience.  While the Australian Government's approach to China has largely been correct when its made the hard decisions on 5G, foreign influence laws, foreign donations to political parties, and FIRB requirements, these decisions have come only after it had tried every other stupid approach first. What the Government must do, however, is bring the Australian public into its confidence on China, and clearly explain the strategic fundamentals behind these tough decisions.   The Australian Government's decision to procure the shortfin barracuda submarines has been fraught with controversy. It was a mistake for the Government to pitch this decision as industry policy designed to boost the South Australian economy rather than as one of strategic benefit to the defence of the nation. Regardless, the Australian Government has no option but to make the current submarine plan work because to do anything else will add years and years to the project. 

This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander and Georgina Downer discuss the decision by Australia's Treasurer Josh Frydenberg to reject the sale of South African construction firm Probuild to Chinese investors. Is this "justified discrimination" as the US Studies Centre's John Lee argues? Or is China right that the Australian Government is "weaponising" national security to block Chinese investment into Australia? Regardless of who is right or wrong, it is becoming more and more difficult for Chinese investors in Australia to get a positive response from Australia's Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB).  US President-elect Joe Biden's new Asia Tsar (aka Indo-Pacific Coordinator of the National Security Council) Kurt Campbell is a welcome appointment to the Biden Administration. He is well-known to Australia, is a fan of the Alliance, and wants to see balance in the region. China has called Campbell "Dr Containment" but he is no fan of a containment strategy against China. Before his post was announced he argued for an Indo-Pacific of balance and twenty-first century openness, not hegemony and nineteenth-century spheres of influence. Let's hope he's up to the task of delivering it. After the attacks on the US Capitol and US President Donald Trump's role in inciting the violence, the Democrats in the US House used their numbers to impeach Trump. Things will now move to the Senate where a two thirds' majority is needed to convict Trump and prevent him from running for President again. Is this petty politics? What does this mean for Biden's pitch to be a healer of the nation, and building bridges with the more than 70 million Americans who voted for Trump? Might a conviction make a martyr out of Trump, and condemn the US to more years of political division. Let's hope partisanship can take a back seat in the US Capitol. Unlikely as that may seem. In an effort to shore up relations in Southeast Asia prior to Biden's inauguration, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Myanmar, Indonesia, Brunei and the Philippines. The visit was seen as an effort to boost China's soft power through vaccine diplomacy. Indonesia's President Joko Widodo was the first recipient in his country of China's Sinovac Covid-19 vaccine which was caught on live TV.   But it is Israel who is leading the global vaccination race. So far the tiny country of 9 million people has vaccinated 25% of its population, with ambition to finish the job by March. Israel is keen to show the world the way out of Covid-19 through this vaccination drive. Let's hope it works. 

In this second season of GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander and Georgina Downer discuss the crazy world of US politics and its impact on US soft power.  US President Donald Trump's behaviour since the Presidential election on 4 November 2020 has been abysmal. Behaving like a spoilt child, he cruelled the Republican Party's chances of holding the two Senate seats in Georgia, thereby denying the Republicans control of the Senate. His incitement to violence of his supporters to prevent the US Congress certifying the electoral college nomination of Joe Biden as the next US President was the final nail in the coffin for this historically controversial US President. But will US soft power throughout the world suffer a fatal blow? Arguably, the US has weathered worse or similar bouts of behaviour and still is the country with the most significant amount of soft power. And this is likely to continue irrespective of Trump and his legacy.  For China, 2020 was an annus horribilis: its Covid-19 response saw China's soft power plunge dramatically. But things could have been so very different if China had used Covid-19 as an opportunity to take up the mantle of global leader in this health emergency. Small trends are emerging that China is recalibrating its approach but we need to see much more to call it a change in strategy.  The only certainty for 2021 is that this will be a year of uncertainty. But Covid-19 vaccines will be rolled out and help deal with the global pandemic, albeit slower and less dramatically than we would all like.  Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel will step down this year after 16 years in office. Perhaps her Health Minister will take over but if so he will have big big shoes to fill.  Scotland will hold legislative elections which are likely to put First Minister Nicola Sturgeon in an even stronger position but it's unlikely UK PM Boris Johnson will allow her a second independence referendum for Scotland. She might find another way though through the courts. Iran will hold presidential elections but the US will likely not renegotiate the deal with Iran that Trump tore up four years ago. This will be a tough decision for the incoming Biden Administration. And China. China might recalibrate and tone down its wolf warrior diplomats. If not, 2021 will be another rocky ride for the world.

This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer talk to Grain Growers Chair Brett Hosking about the Australia-China barley dispute.  While the story of 2020 will undoubtedly be the the Covid-19 pandemic, for Australia it's also a story of the deteriorating relationship with China and its economic fallout. China has targeted a range of imports from Australia in retaliation for the Australian Government's decisions relating to foreign interference, Huawei, an independent inquiry into Covid-19, the US alliance, statements on Hong Kong, the South China Sea and human rights to name but a few. Australian exporters of beef, wine, lobster, sugar, timber, copper, coal, and barley have born the brunt of the biggest geopolitical story of our generation. The rise of an increasingly assertive Xi Jinping-led China. China is trying to make Australia the salutary tale for other countries who may seek to challenge China's interests.  For barley, the story begins in 2018 when China launched an investigation into allegations that Australia was dumping barley into the Chinese market and that Australia farmers were being subsidised in violation of WTO rules. China then placed a 80.5 per cent tariff on Australian barley, effectively blocking $500 million per annum in barley exports. This decision took place at the same time as Australia decided to ban Huawei from supplying equipment to Australia's 5G network. On 16 December 2020, Australia's Trade Minister Simon Birmingham announced Australia would take action in the World Trade Organization (WTO) over China's imposition of anti-dumping and countervailing duties on barley. The WTO process is not quick. There is no doubt that this dispute will take several years to settle. In the meantime, barley growers will need to find other markets or plant different crops or both. But, the future is still bright. As Brett says, the dispute with China is nothing compared to dealing with a crippling drought. Australian grain growers are used to working in the world's toughest conditions. When one market closes, others will open. And maybe, just maybe, the China market will open back up sooner rather than later.  Finally, Merry Christmas from the team at Tenjin Consulting!

With negotiations between the UK and the EU for a trade agreement in the final (yes really final this time) stages, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer look back at the history of the EU and Britain's entry to and now exit from it.  In the aftermath of WWII, Britain was victorious with its centuries old institutions still intact. The situation for continental Europe couldn't have been more different. All countries bar Sweden had to rewrite their constitutions and rebuild their systems of governance. This context provided the inspiration to create a United States of Europe. The aspiration was to prevent future wars through European economic integration. Frenchmen Jean Monnet and Robert Schuman (a former French Prime Minister and Christian Democrat) developed the Schuman Plan out of which came the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC). Their view was that giving control over coal and steel production in Europe to a ‘common High Authority’ would prevent any one European power from developing armaments and the Continent descending once again into war. In 1951, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy and Luxembourg signed the Treaty of Paris which established the ECSC, the precursor to the Common Market. However, Britain’s Labour Prime Minister, Clement Attlee, firmly declined to join stating that ‘we should not commit ourselves irrevocably to Europe, either in the political or in the economic sphere’. The break up of British Empire and the decline of UK manufacturing of 1950s heralded a lengthy period of economic suffering for the UK. Looking over to a much more prosperous Europe, in 1961 UK Prime Minister Harold McMillan made a request for the UK to join the EEC. He was rebuffed. French President General De Gaulle led the charge against Britain's EEC membership reasoning:England in effect is insular, she is maritime, she is linked through her interactions, her markets and her supply lines to the most diverse and often the most distant countries; she pursues essentially industrial and commercial activities, and only slight agricultural ones. She has, in all her doings, very marked and very original habits and traditions. In short, the nature, structure and economic context of [Britain] differ profoundly from those of the other States of the Continent. By 1971, the UK was still in the economic doldrums. France and Germany had overtaken the UK economy, and the UK's per capita GDP was half that of its EEC counterparts. As then-Prime Minister Ted Heath put it in 1971, ‘For 25 years we’ve been looking for something to get us going again. Now here it is.’ It was the promise of economic prosperity – not political union – that formed the basis of Heath’s sell to Britons to join Europe. And so, with a change in French President to the more UK-friendly Georges Pompidou, in 1973 Heath led Britain into the EEC.  Joining EEC was the death knell for the UK’s cheap tariff free imports from the Commonwealth, including Australia. The UK-Australia Trade Agreement was cancelled in 1973 and Australia’s exports of beef, sheep meat and dairy particularly suffered. Australian exporters had to look to new markets such as the United States and Asia as the EEC closed the way to British consumers. Britain’s Commonwealth ties were truly frayed. Over the years, the EU morphed into a supranational government, a federation of EU members states, each giving up more and more of their sovereignty to EU officials. 2009 marked a resurgence of Eurosceptism in UK with the twin crises of immigration and the Eurozone hitting the bloc. By 2013, UK Prime Minister David Cameron pledged to renegotiate the UK's relationship with the EU and hold referendum to settle question of membership once and for all as he identified that Britons ‘feel that the EU is heading in a direction that they never signed up to”. The result on the 23 June 2016 was clear: the UK would leave the EU. The UK did this on 1 January 2020, with a 1 year transition period during which it has been negotiating a trade deal with the EU. While it looks like both sides will negotiate the trade deal until 30 December, the issues that remain (power over fishing waters and the setting of domestic standards) cut to the very core of the UK's sovereignty and the two sides remain far apart. No deal Brexit is still very much a possibility. 

This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer tells Georgina Downer how he is coping with two weeks in hotel quarantine. The answer: not well! On to Brexit, where the UK and EU are in the final (yes really final this time) stages of negotiating a trade agreement. Alexander expects a deal, but Boris Johnson is still leaving the prospect of "no deal" on the table. We will know in a matter of days...surely? While we may have reached the end of the beginning of the covid-19 pandemic with approvals coming thick and fast for vaccines, arguably the even bigger challenge will be distributing the vaccines around the world. Some of the vaccines will require transportation at extremely low temperatures, making distribution to lower income countries nigh on impossible. The other issue remains the take up of vaccines. Which vaccine will you trust, if you trust any? The Russian Sputnik V, China's Sinovac? Transparency, robustness of regulatory regimes and the approvals process will be playing on people's minds. Without a vaccine there is no end in sight to the pandemic, but making people take it may be just as hard as getting it to them. Finally, Australia's China woes continue. Allies are rallying around Australia but some are benefitting from the trade tensions, including Canada and the US which compete with Australia for the Chinese export dollar. Do values trump dollars? A strong and coordinated response to China's aggressive behaviour will rely on liberal democracies prioritising free societies and a rules based order over a strong economic balance sheet. Something to watch, especially the response from the incoming-Biden Administration.

This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer speak to former Australian Ambassador to Japan Bruce Miller AO about Japan and Asia.  The legacy of recently retired Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is significant. Abe delivered Japan eight years of much needed political stability, drove a substantial economic reform agenda, and reinterpreted the Constitution to put Japan on a more normal defence footing. But he will be remembered most for the role he played on the international stage, positioning Japan as an activist middle power. Without Japan's leadership, for example, it is likely the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership and the Regional and Comprehensive Economic Partnership would have been dead on arrival.  In response to a more assertive China, under Abe Japan navigated this historically tricky relationship adeptly without making any concessions.  There are clearly lessons here for Australia given the bilateral tensions with China. No doubt this was discussed at the recent meeting between Australia's Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the new Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga in Tokyo in November.  Australia and Japan's relationship has deepened considerably over the last two decades. A series of defence agreements means that the two countries are now as close to an alliance as one can be, without actually being in one (ie, there are no mutual security assurances between the two).  Japan usually prefers a Republican Administration in the White House given they tend to prioritise alliances over other relationships. But in this case, it is likely the Japanese Government will welcome the stability the incoming-Biden Administration is likely to deliver in US foreign policy.  Now, someone else has got their hands on Twitter diplomacy, and they aren't in the White House!

This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer discuss President-elect Joe Biden's picks for his foreign and security policy team. Biden has gone for long-term trusted advisors, most of whom occupied similar roles during the Obama Administration of which Biden was part. Tony Blinken as Secretary of State and Jake Sullivan as National Security Advisor will be safe and centrist pairs of hands, but query their focus on Asia and how effective their China strategy will be.   This week, CEO of the Cognocenti Group Alan Dupont wrote an important piece on the future of Taiwan and the possibility it might become a trigger for a hot war between the US and China (and of course the US' allies, including Australia). This would put Australia in an incredibly difficult situation: having to choose between supporting an ally or staying out of a fight to avoid severing ties with an important economic partner. Short of Taiwan declaring itself a sovereign state, we don't expect China to launch an attack soon, but it is a clear aspiration of Xi Jinping to incorporate Taiwan into Greater China so clear thinking about the consequences for Australia and others is essential.  This week China launched its first lunar mission to collect some rock samples from the moon. Space has always been a theatre for the chest thumping of great powers, and US-China rivalry is now extending to infinity and beyond. With the growing reliance on satellites for communications and navigation, as well as espionage and military activities, what goes on in space matters, a lot. Currently the US and China don't cooperate in space. Could this be an area for future cooperation and to soothe tensions?  In the midst of a year of doom and gloom and covid-19, it is refreshing to get some good news about the effectiveness of the Pfizer, Moderna and Astra-Zeneca vaccines. Does this mean the end of covid-19 is in sight? Or will people shun the vaccines over health concerns? Getting people vaccinated is only partly a logistical challenge. The politics of vaccines will be tough. Finally, China's Embassy in Australia released a "14 things I hate about you" list to the Australian media and it made for some stunning reading - banning Huawei, calling for an independent investigation into the origins of covid-19, introducing foreign interference legislation, and criticising China's approach to Hong Kong, Xinjian and Taiwan, and outspoken Aussie MPs were there, to name but a few. But, within a week the Chinese Government was praising Prime Minister Scott Morrison's speech to UK think thank Policy Exchange in which he himself praised China for its unprecedent efforts to bring millions of people out of poverty. Does this mean a thawing in relations is afoot? Time heals all wounds, usually.

This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander and Georgina Downer do a deep dive into trade with Dr Pru Gordon, Executive Director of the Australian Centre for International Trade and Investment. Pru has worked on trade policy for over 25 years, both in and out of government. So who better to discuss the recent signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement with that Pru? On paper, RCEP is an exciting development for trade liberalisation when good news has been hard to come by in recent years. It's a 15 member deal (all ASEAN countries plus Australia, New Zealand, China, Japan and Korea), covering 30% of global GDP and 30% of the world's people. No US or India, though. For Australia, the commercial outcomes of RCEP are limited. Services trade with ASEAN countries will improve, but beyond that the benefits are minimal. It's disappointing to see the low level of ambition in this agreement, compared to the CPTPP which was inked two years prior. The geopolitics of RCEP are arguably more interesting than the trade outcomes. The lack of a US presence in this deal and the US withdrawal from the TPP mean the US role as the global standard setter of rules and driver of free trade is diminishing. The US is actively ceding space to others to set the agenda when it comes to trade, meaning the US role in the Indo-Pacific becomes skewed towards security. Former US President Barack Obama’s warning back in 2015 about the strategic importance of the TPP (“If we don’t write the rules, China will") seems prophetic. It's unlikely that the US will join the CPTPP under a Biden Administration. The domestic politics are tough after Trump spent the last 5 years trashing the case for global trade agreements. Perhaps a re-branding will help, but either way, these days there is more space for China, Japan, ASEAN and others to set a more Asia-centric agenda with the US out of the picture. 

This week on GeoPod, Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer take a deep dive into Brexit, lockdowns and US politics with former Member of the European Parliament, Dan Hannan. Dan is the intellectual godfather of the Brexit campaign, successfully putting himself out of a job after 21 years arguing for the UK's withdrawal from the EU.  For Dan, Donald's Trump failed re-election bid did not come as a surprise. But Trump's influence on the Republican Party and conservatism more generally leaves a tricky legacy. Rational economics has been dumped in favour of populist economics, and the US no longer champions the trade liberalisation agenda.  The economic consequences of Covid-19 - high debt and deficits and bigger government - will be hard to shake off long after the health impacts have gone. The Johnson-led UK Government needs a pathway out of bigger government and to tackle the unaccountable and ungovernable QANGOs if it wants to succeed.  On Brexit, the EU is being predictably vindictive in the last stages of the negotiations for a trade agreement with the UK. It all rests with fisheries, with French President Emmanuel Macron ready to walk away from the talks for political but not economic expediency. Dan's hunch is that a deal will be done. But it's not easy. At least the UK has the prospect of trade agreements with Australia and the 11-member Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership to look forward to! This podcast is brought you by Tenjin Consulting, and Australian geopolitical and strategic advisory firm.

This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer discuss the implications of second wave lockdowns in the UK and Europe. These economies will take a hammering and become seriously diminished. 3 November is D-Day for US politics. Alexander has endorsed Trump but thinks he'll lose, while Georgina sees a narrow path to victory for Trump through the Sun Belt states and Pennsylvania. Still, predictions are a mugs game especially if 2016 was anything to go by. Terror has once again visited France, with two Islamist terror attacks in the last month. French President Emmanuel Macron's response to the attacks was to diagnose Islam as a religion in crisis. This brought the ire of former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammed, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Pakistan's President Imran Kahn. France hosts the largest Muslim population in Europe and these ethnic and religious tensions will continue to grow in the lead up to the 2022 French presidential election where far-right leader Marine Le Pen will once again run. Australia's policy on China has hardened over the last few years, with the influence of Australia's security and intelligence services taking the lead over Foreign Affairs types in Canberra. China's reaction to Australia's hawkishness has been tough and Australia is now grappling with the economic consequences of standing its ground when it comes to political and commercial interference by China.   At the Fifth Plenum of the Communist Party of China we got a glimpse into China's priorities for the next five years. Expect more focus on technological self-reliance and innovation and prioritising domestic consumption over an export-led economy while China navigates an uncertain strategic landscape and changing regional power balances. 

This week on GeoPod Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer discuss US President Donald J Trump's foreign policy legacy.  On the Middle East, Trump has arguably made the biggest contribution since Bill Clinton and the Oslo Accords. Defeating ISIS, pulling out of the Iran agreement, and brokering agreements between Israel and three Arab nations has resulted in a paradigm shift in the Middle East. Will this mean peace at last? On trade and multilateralism, Trump's legacy is mixed. Pulling the US out of the Trans Pacific Partnership agreement was a setback for trade liberalisation, and the trade war with China has not delivered the promised benefits for US manufacturers. Withdrawing the US from the Paris Climate Change Agreement and stopping funding for the World Health Organisation, while playing well for domestic politics, wont serve US interests well into the future. Ceding ground in multilateral organisations just leaves more room for revisionist powers like China to build their influence and craft these institutions in an image more to their liking.  We discuss this year's biggest political news story - the US presidential election. While Trump is making a comeback, polls still put Biden clearly ahead. But the pundits are much more cautious this time given the surprise result in 2016.  On 8 November, another country goes to the polls. Myanmar will hold its third election since its transition to democracy. Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy looks set to win once again despite her rocky legacy on democracy and human rights. Ethnic tensions and the continued influence of the military still haunt Myanmar's politics and society, though. The UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons will finally come into force after Honduras ratified it. While the treaty makes the development, testing, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons illegal for those countries that have signed it, all nuclear weapons states, NATO countries and countries that benefit from the US' nuclear umbrella have not. It's hard to uninvent something and realism means nuclear weapons aren't going away any time soon. Finally, things between China and Taiwan are hotting up, and not just between their boxing diplomats in Fiji. Expect the next US president, whether it's Trump or Biden, to be dealing with this burning issue during his term. China's President Xi Jinping is determined to return Taiwan to China and the Taiwanese aren't having a bar of this, especially considering the treatment of Hong Kong. Things will start to get rather nasty over the next few years.

This week on GeoPod Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer do a Deep Dive into Indonesia with the International Republican Institute's Resident Program Director, Parker Novak. Join us to discover more about the world's third largest democracy, its economy, foreign relations and response to Covid-19. IRI is an international democracy-development organisation with offices in 40 countries, including Indonesia.

This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer talk New Zealand politics. With Jacinda Ardern commanding a significant lead in the polls, it looks certain that NZ Labour will win at this Saturday's 17 October poll. It looks like New Zealanders will reward Ardern a second term (possibly in coalition with the Greens) for her efforts in guiding New Zealand relatively unscathed through the Covid-19 pandemic and her empathetic leadership in the aftermath of the Christchurch massacre. New Zealand's economy, like the rest of the world's, is heading for a deep recession. With New Zealand's borders locked down, Ardern will need to navigate a Covid-normal path with the prospect of no vaccine in sight for the foreseeable future. Tough times ahead. The Brexit talks conclude this week, with the European Council meeting on Thursday 15 October. Talks over fishing continue to flounder, with both sides putting up red herrings.... and on the puns go. Boris Johnson is still up for a No-Deal Brexit, but chances are a deal will be done to give French fishermen and women some of the British catch. Meanwhile Australia and the UK concluded their first round of talks (albeit virtually) for a Free Trade Agreement. The prospects are good for a high quality agreement: expect outcomes of agricultural goods, food and drink, technology, telecommunications, and financial services. Now, Australia just needs to reopen its borders... Rumour has it that Chinese steel mills have banned imports of Australian coal. It's a bit of an own goal if true given that around 40% of total coal imports to China are from Australia, but could reflect a further decline in the bilateral relationship. It begs the question: how low can we go? Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg made some major announcements on supply chain resilience and sovereign manufacturing capability in last week's Federal Budget. A$1.3 billion will go towards a “Modern Manufacturing Strategy” designed to assist Australian manufacturers in six priority areas. Another A$107.2 million in funding will go to the Supply Chain Resilience Initiative designed to address key supply chain concerns highlighted by COVID-19 in areas like health and medical products, food and food services, and chemical and plastics. Picking winners is so much fun! Finally, vaccine geopolitics continues apace. China has now joined the WHO's COVAX initiative to distribute the Covid-19 vaccine throughout the world (if we ever get one), leaving the United States the only country not to participate. 10 vaccines are undergoing final stage III trials. The US will stick with its "Operation Warp Speed" plan to approve a US vaccine in November and produce 700 million doses by April 2021. It's a geopolitical race to the finish line with the winner securing early herd immunity, an open economy and society, plus huge soft power benefits to boot. It's Buzz Aldrin and Neil Armstrong all over again!

This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer talks to Georgina Downer about his recent trip to Gibraltar, a British overseas territory at the tip of Spain. Fish and chips at the tip of the Iberian Peninsula, monkeys, e-gaming and car insurance, make this strategically important territory a fascinating place to visit.  Boris Johnson continues to battle it out with EU President Ursula von der Leyen to finalise the Brexit deal, but the talks on fisheries continue to flounder...  The virtual Conservative Party Conference turned out to be a bit of a damp squib, but the Tory leader's speech proved he still has his mojo, despite concerns Covid might have robbed him of his trademark ebullience. On 4 October New Caledonians voted against independence from France in the second of three referenda on the issue. While the status quo prevails for now, what happens over the next few years in this nickel-rich French overseas territory will have great significance for geopolitics. Watch this space.  The October surprise in the US Presidential election campaign delivered in spades. Donald Trump was diagnosed with Covid-19 but, while he has thankfully mostly recovered from the deadly virus, his polls haven't fared as well. US politics is viciously partisan. We expect a Biden win on 3 November but, if the result is close, expect a bumpy transition period between the two Administrations.  The Quadrilateral Strategic Dialogue aka the Quad is the minilateral du jour. Comprised of Australia, India, Japan and the US, the four foreign ministers met in Tokyo on 6 October to discuss, you guessed it, China. The Quad didn't issue a joint statement but each minister made clear their commitment to cooperation in these difficult times. China's Global Times was less than amused.  Finally, Australia's Treasurer Josh Frydenberg delivered a whopping spending bill in the delayed budget on 6 October. While Australia is up for $1 trillion in government debt by 2024, it is in a better economic position than almost anywhere else in the world. Lucky interest rates are low... for now. 

This week Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer discuss the trading of insults that was the Trump-Biden debate. Not sure who won but the moderator Chris Wallace came a clear third. We talk Covid-lockdowns in the UK and vaccine geopolitics. Will Alexander get the Russian vaccine Sputnik V on Amazon? We discuss the United Nations and the future of multilateralism - in sum: it's depressing. We talk Malaysian politics. Will Anwar Ibrahim finally get a shot at leading his country? We analyse the EU's response to developments in Belarus, including how Cyprus is single-handedly stymying the EU's attempts to place sanctions on Belarus' dictator Alexander Lukashenko. And a final treat. Georgina reviews The Comey Rule, featuring a certain Aussie diplomat caught up in the US Deep State.

This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer talk to the Hudson Institute's Dr John Lee about China.  John is one of Australia's foremost experts on the Chinese political economy and strategic and economic affairs of the Indo-Pacific. In this Deep Dive into China, we discuss with John China’s diplomatic strategy and its evolution from "hide your strength, bide your time" to emphasising China’s strengths and concealing its weaknesses. We also discuss Australia’s approach to China, while John explains the reasons behind its evolution since 2015: a response to China’s overt meddling in Australia. We explore with John how Australia can deal with China’s economic and political sanctions to find a new normal in the relationship which is at the very least, stable and manageable for both sides. John gives us his take on the different approaches of the Obama and Trump Administrations when it comes to China and how the Trump Administration, which is more tolerant of risk and disruption, has given Australia more options. We discuss the impact of Australia’s call earlier this year for an independent inquiry into origins of Covid-19 and the backlash from China. We analyse the impact of Covid-19 on China's soft power, particularly in its handling of the pandemic vis a vis Western liberal democracies.  Finally, we discuss what a Biden Administration will be like on China. John argues that while the rhetoric might be different, the US' actions are likely to be largely the same. It you'd like to learn more about Tenjin Consulting, you can find us at https://tenjinconsulting.com.au/

This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer discuss the Afghan peace talks in Doha between the Afghan Government and the Taliban. If successful, these peace negotiations could bring an end to the near two-decade-old conflict in Afghanistan. Questions remain how the two sides can resolve their very divergent visions for Afghanistan though. We discuss the much-overlooked Trump foreign policy successes, particularly in the Middle East and Israel. The recent agreements struck by Israel with the UAE and Bahrain are changing the geopolitics of the Middle East forever. The UK and the EU are in the final stages of their negotiations for a post-Brexit relationship but both sides are engaging in brinkmanship. We discuss the prospects for a deal and the potential for the UK Government to break international law in order to keep the United Kingdom "united".  Covid-19 presents serious challenges for Australia's federal system. We discuss the divergence between the state and federal governments' responses to the pandemic and the growing economic crisis that awaits. Finally, China-Australia relations are going from bad to worse. With the departure of two Australian journalists from China last week, it's hard to see how relations can improve under a Xi Jinping leadership in China. The EU-China virtual summit will be held on 14 September. Watch out for China's reaction to the EU's expected criticism of the situation in Hong Kong, human rights issues and 5G concerns.  GeoPod is a weekly geopolitics podcast hosted by Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer. To find out more about Tenjin Consulting please visit our website https://tenjinconsulting.com.au/

This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer talk about the UK Government's decision to appoint former Australian PM Tony Abbott to the UK Board of Trade and what this means for the UK's post-Brexit trade agenda. We discuss the growing prospects of a no-deal Brexit, with negotiations on state aid and fishing rights at a stalemate and the time remaining to secure a deal fast running out. We ask whether the US presidential debates starting on the 29th September will give Donald Trump the boost he needs to secure his re-election on November 3? We analyse the impact of the recent visits by China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Chinese Communist Party Politburo Member Yang Jiechi to Europe and question whether this was a  charm offensive gone wrong? Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga looks all but certain to become the next Prime Minister of Japan so we discuss what a Suga prime ministership will mean for Australia and the region. Finally, it's only September but 2020 has proved to be Iran's annus horribilus. We talk about what's happened and what this all means for next year's presidential election. If you want to read more about Tenjin Consulting please go to our website: https://tenjinconsulting.com.au/ We would love to hear your feedback on GeoPod. Please email us at info@tenjinconsulting.com.au and let us know your thoughts.

This week on GeoPod Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer talk about, you guessed it, the US presidential election, including the Republican National Convention and the impact of he Black Lives Matter protests on the race.We discuss the resignation of Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his substantial legacy after 8 years in office, particularly in free trade, and who are his likely successors. (10:45)We turn to the United Kingdom and its trade agenda, including the appointment of former Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott to the UK Board of Trade and what this might mean for the FTA negotiations with Australia, and look at how the Brexit negotiations are going, particularly the stumbling blocks over State Aid and fisheries. (26:05)We analyse the meaning and implications of the National Press Club speech by China's Deputy Ambassador to Australia and the likely impact of legislation enabling the Federal Government to override agreements with foreign governments entered into by the States and universities (think: Victoria's MOU with China on the Belt and Road initiative). (39:03)Finally, we look at the rolling protests in Belarus and what Russia might do next to bring calm to its neighbour and friend. (50:11)

This week on GeoPod Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer discuss the impact of Joe Biden's nomination speech on his hopes to win the US Presidential election, the trouble brewing in Belarus and Russia's likely reaction (or possibly not). We also talk about the legacy of Prime Minister Abe of Japan and his likely successors as his departure looms next year. We discuss the tortured US-China tech divorce including the global ramifications of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's Clean Network initiative, and the lessons from Hong Kong for Taiwan.

This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer discuss the latest in the US Presidential election race, including Biden's pick for his running mate Kamala Harris. We discuss the historic UAE-Israel deal and what it means for peace and stability in the Middle East, and Russia's "Sputnik V" moment in the Covid19 vaccine race. We analyse the troubled peace talks in Afghanistan and the consequences of bringing the Taliban back into the tent, and discuss the latest in China's crack downs in Hong Kong, including the arrest of pro-democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai.

This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Georgina Downer is joined by the Director of the Australia India Institute Tanya Spisbah for a special deep dive into India. From the Australia-India relationship and the Morrison-Modi bromance, to "the Quad" and what this means for Indo-Pacific region, there is lots of unpack when it comes to this emerging global power. We also discuss India's flagging interest in the trade liberalisation agenda, the bubbling unrest across the Hindu-Muslim divide and what this means for national cohesion, India's relations with China and its own TikTok ban, and how India is coping with Covid-19.  

This week on GeoPod Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer discuss the ticking time bomb that is China-US relations and the US ban on Chinese video-sharing app Tik Tok. We also discuss Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison's speech to the Aspen Security Forum and his developing world view, how the US Presidential election is unfolding, and the political games being played in Malaysia.

This week Tenjin Consulting's Alexander Downer and Georgina Downer discuss the recent AUSMIN meeting in Washington DC where Australia's Foreign and Defence Ministers met their US counterparts to discuss, you guessed it, China. We also talk about the latest in the US Presidential election campaigning, how Brexit is going and what this means for the regional trade agenda, and finally Russia's anti-satellite missile test and the future of war.

Welcome to GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Weekly Geopolitics Podcast. We bring you the latest in geopolitics from two of Australia's leading experts, former Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and former diplomat and Asia expert Georgina Downer. Be it the fallout from the US-China relationship to the UK's Brexit journey into the world, we take out the noise from global events and distill the issues that matter for you.  Check us out at www.tenjinconsulting.com.au And if you like GeoPod, please subscribe and share with your friends and colleagues.