Podcasts about apec

Alpha Warrior and Josh Reid catch their breath after one of the wildest weeks in years. Iran's civilian government just ended the war, the Strait of Hormuz reopened, sanctions are coming off, and Trump's approval rating in Israel went from positive twenty three to negative twenty three in seven days. Save Israel for last is happening in real time. Mark Levin is having a public meltdown, the APEC lobby is in panic mode, and the MOU to Israel was never released. The bombshell of the episode comes when the guys catch what Trump quietly admitted at the G7. He installed Jolani in Syria with Erdogan before he was even back in office. That confirms the takedown of Assad and the dismantling of the Iran to Hezbollah land bridge were Trump's moves, not Bibi's, and it completely shreds the controlled by Israel narrative. From there they unpack the Jay Clayton ODNI nomination and his SDNY history with Maduro, the Cartel de los Soles generals, Epstein, the Weiner laptop, and the Clinton Foundation. Plus the Tulsi report driving a national emergency on election integrity, the Hochul Medicaid fraud indictment, Newsom's California DOJ investigating his own wife, and the eight man B-52 crash at Edwards that has the Mossad telegram channels celebrating.

Tencent said on Wednesday that United States users of PayPal will be able to pay at tens of millions of Weixin Pay merchants across China by scanning QR codes, marking one of the most extensive integrations yet between China's mobile payment ecosystem and foreign digital wallets.腾讯周三发布消息称，美国贝宝用户可通过扫码，在国内数千万家微信支付合作商户完成付款。这也是中国移动支付生态与境外数字钱包迄今规模最大的一次对接合作。The integration between Tencent's cross-border platform TenPay and US fintech firm PayPal marks one of the first large-scale international applications of China's unified cross-border QR code gateway system.腾讯旗下跨境支付平台财付通与美国金融科技企业贝宝完成对接，这也是我国统一跨境二维码网关系统首批大规模落地的国际应用场景之一。Under the partnership, US PayPal users visiting China will be able to pay directly at Weixin Pay merchants nationwide using familiar PayPal wallet accounts, without opening Chinese bank accounts. The service will initially launch for US PayPal users before expanding to other markets in phases, Tencent said.腾讯表示，来华的美国贝宝用户可直接使用原有账户，在全国微信支付商户消费付款，无需开立中国境内银行账户。该服务率先面向美国用户上线，后续将逐步拓展至其他地区。The partnership will run through China's unified cross-border QR code gateway — a payment infrastructure system designed to standardize links between domestic and overseas wallets.本次合作依托我国统一跨境二维码网关开展。该基础设施旨在统一境内外电子钱包的对接标准。Otto Williams, senior vice-president of PayPal and regional head for PayPal World's Middle East and Africa, said: "China is home to one of the world's most sophisticated digital payment ecosystems, and for international travelers, the ability to pay seamlessly is integral to the experience of being here. Through PayPal World's partnership with TenPay Global, we are committed to ensuring international visitors can enjoy seamless payments using a wallet they already know and trust."贝宝高级副总裁、贝宝环球中东及非洲区域负责人Otto Williams表示：“中国拥有全球成熟度领先的数字支付生态。对入境游客而言，顺畅支付是出行体验的重要一环。借助贝宝环球与财付通国际版的合作，我们将全力保障境外游客使用常用且信赖的钱包，实现便捷支付。”Tencent said the launch is part of a broader inbound payment service enhancement initiative built around product upgrades, overseas wallet integration and multilingual services ahead of the upcoming APEC.腾讯表示，此次服务上线，是亚太经合组织会议召开前夕，入境支付服务升级工作的重要一环。相关升级涵盖产品优化、境外钱包对接、多语种服务等多个方面。Daniel Hong, vice-president of Tencent's fintech group, announced a series of measures including a 90-day waiver of the 3 percent international card transaction fee for first-time users linking overseas bank cards, covering daily spending of up to 1,000 yuan ($139).腾讯金融科技事业部副总裁洪丹毅宣布多项便民举措。首次绑定境外银行卡的用户，90天内可免收3%的国际卡交易手续费，单日减免额度上限为1000元人民币，折合139美元。Tencent also said Weixin Pay's in-app payment guidance has been expanded into 16 languages including English, Korean, Thai, Russian, Spanish and Arabic, while multilingual offline service desks have been established at Shenzhen, Guangdong province, airports, border checkpoints, hotels and major commercial districts.腾讯介绍，微信支付端内支付指引现已支持英语、韩语、泰语、俄语、西班牙语、阿拉伯语等16种语言。广东深圳的机场、口岸、酒店及核心商圈，也已设置多语种线下服务窗口。Tencent said overseas transactions through Weixin Pay rose nearly 80 percent year-on-year between January and April.数据显示，今年1至4月，微信支付境外交易规模同比增长近八成。Dong Ximiao, chief economist at Merchants Union Consumer Finance and deputy director of the Shanghai Institution for Finance and Development, described the coordination of the two major payment platforms' services as a landmark moment for China's cross-border payments infrastructure.招联首席经济学家、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼表示，两大支付平台实现业务互通，是我国跨境支付基础设施建设的标志性事件。"The launch of Weixin Pay support for PayPal users in China, beginning with US users, is a symbolic event in the interconnection of China's cross-border payment systems," Dong said.董希淼称，微信支付率先向美国贝宝用户开放服务，是我国跨境支付体系互联互通进程中的标志性进展。He said the unified cross-border QR code gateway, which launched trial operations in July 2025 under guidance from China's central bank and other authorities, solved a longstanding fragmentation problem in China's digital payments sector.他表示，在央行等部门指导下，统一跨境二维码网关于2025年7月启动试运行，有效解决了国内数字支付行业长期存在的体系割裂问题。Previously, overseas wallets and Chinese payment systems had to negotiate and connect individually, resulting in high technical costs and inconsistent standards, Dong said.董希淼介绍，以往境外钱包与国内支付系统需逐一洽谈对接，不仅技术成本高昂，对接标准也难以统一。"The PayPal integration marks a substantive shift from simple interconnection toward actual interoperability in China's cross-border payment infrastructure," he added.他补充道，本次与贝宝完成对接，意味着我国跨境支付基础设施，从基础联通迈入了深度互操作的全新阶段。

Dom and Charles are joined by the genuinely talented artist, Jennifer Forward-Hayter, who has done something truly incredible. Dear listener, if you've ever asked the question, "What if the Chaser's APEC stunt happened at Buckingham Palace?", then this episode has all the answers you need.---Listen AD FREE: https://thechaserreport.supercast.com/ Follow us on Instagram: @chaserwarSpam Dom's socials: @dom_knightSend Charles voicemails: @charlesfirthEmail us: podcast@chaser.com.auChaser CEO's Super-yacht upgrade Fund: https://chaser.com.au/support/ Send complaints to: mediawatch@abc.net.au Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

2026年5月25日（月）ニュース ▼高市総理と植田日銀総裁が意見交換 ▼トランプ大統領 イランとの交渉「ほぼ終了」 ▼政府 補正予算総額3兆円で調整 ▼AI「ミュトス」のアクセス権 政府･金融⑦機関に付与すると表明 ▼APEC貿易相会合 赤沢大臣が中国閣僚と接触 ▼食品の消費税減税「1%かゼロか」　6月にも判断へ コメンテーター 片岡剛士 @kataokagoushi　 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

#高雄 正義站&黃線捷運計劃，平面車位3房全新完工 實品屋預約鑑賞中。 正義站通勤南科，未來捷運串連衛武營、Lalaport。 正義公園，風景入門廳。 陽明國中自由學區07-7801988 洽澄清路227號 https://sofm.pse.is/95e55a －－－－以上為 SoundOn 動態廣告－－－－ 川習會後，白宮聲明隻字未提台灣，但川普返美後透露和習近平「整晚都在討論台灣」。這種官方留白、私下施壓，是否顯示「中國是中國，台灣是台灣」仍是美方底牌，只是作為施壓中國在其他議題上讓步的籌碼？中國向川普挑動「台獨」焦慮，川普稱不樂見台灣「Go Independent」，這是否說明，他真正反對的是單方面在法理上的台獨，現行中華民國台灣地位正是美方捍衛的現狀？他又說，若台灣獨立、中國激烈反應，美國必強烈回應，這句話能打破台灣內部的疑川、疑美論嗎？白宮確認美中將建立「建設性戰略穩定關係」，這是否回到拜登的競合模式，還是重回小布希時代的「交往」？川普言明，暫緩140億美元對台軍售是要作為對中談判的籌碼，這個籌碼如何發揮同時施壓中國與台灣的作用？川普希望更多台灣晶片廠搬到美國，這是否意味台灣安全與半導體綁定？若川普真與賴清德通話，賴清德應如何表達台灣立場？軍武、能源、半導體，統統都妥協，以證明台灣對美有價值？藍綠長期在抗中保台議題上爭鬥，民調顯示中間選民對此已厭煩，是否反而給中共趁虛而入的機會？精彩訪談內容，請鎖定@華視三國演議！ 本集來賓：#陶儀芬 #矢板明夫 主持人：#汪浩 以上言論不代表本台立場 #川習會 #疑美論 #晶片 #抗中保台 電視播出時間

- Hà Nội đẩy nhanh tiến độ các tuyến giao thông chiến lược phía Tây, mở rộng không gian đô thị và tăng cường kết nối vùng.- Nắng nóng gay gắt bao trùm khu vực Bắc Bộ và Trung Bộ. Tại Thủ đô Hà Nội, nhiệt độ ngoài trời nhiều nơi chiều qua đã vượt ngưỡng 40 độ C. Ngành điện chủ động các giải pháp bảo đảm cung ứng điện an toàn, ổn định trước áp lực nhu cầu tăng cao.- Mỹ và Iran tiến gần tới thỏa thuận nhằm chấm dứt cuộc xung đột kéo dài gần 3 tháng qua, đồng thời thiết lập khuôn khổ cho các cuộc đàm phán về chương trình hạt nhân của Iran. - Trong bối cảnh căng thẳng Trung Đông tiếp tục tác động đến thương mại toàn cầu, các nền kinh tế APEC khẳng định quyết tâm bảo vệ chuỗi cung ứng năng lượng bền vững. 

- Tiết kiệm điện và sử dụng Điện mặt trời mái nhà - giải pháp quan trọng góp phần bảo đảm vận hành an toàn hệ thống điện trong bối cảnh nắng nóng gay gắt hiện nay- Cảnh báo bẫy “việc nhẹ lương cao” gia tăng dịp nghỉ hè.- Tổng thống Donald Trump cho biết, thỏa thuận chấm dứt xung đột giữa Mỹ và Iran về cơ bản đã hoàn tất.- Hội nghị Bộ trưởng Thương mại APEC ra Tuyên bố Tô Châu, thúc đẩy liên kết kinh tế khu vực châu Á - Thái Bình Dương.

VOV1 - Hội nghị Bộ trưởng thương mại Diễn đàn Hợp tác Kinh tế châu Á - Thái Bình Dương (APEC) lần thứ 32 vừa kết thúc ngày 23/5 tại thành phố Tô Châu, tỉnh Giang Tô, Trung Quốc. Đoàn Việt Nam đã nêu 4 khuyến nghị tại hội nghị. Hội nghị Bộ trưởng Thương mại APEC lần thứ 32 tổ chức từ ngày 22-23/5 dưới sự chủ trì của ông Vương Văn Đào, Bộ trưởng Thương mại Trung Quốc.Phát biểu tại cuộc họp báo sau hội nghị, ông cho biết, hội nghị lần này đã đạt được kết quả và đồng thuận trên 5 phương diện. Theo đó, hội nghị tái khẳng định sự ủng hộ mạnh mẽ đối với tầm nhìn dài hạn về Khu vực Thương mại Tự do châu Á - Thái Bình Dương (FTAAP); đưa ra tiếng nói chung trong việc thúc đẩy cải cách Tổ chức Thương mại Thế giới (WTO); vạch ra kế hoạch cho sự phát triển của ngành dịch vụ trong 10 năm tới; đạt đồng thuận mới về việc mở rộng không gian hợp tác thương mại số và tích cực tìm kiếm các biện pháp ​​mới về phát triển thương mại xanh.Đoàn Việt Nam do Thứ trưởng Bộ Công Thương Nguyễn Sinh Nhật Tân làm Trưởng đoàn tham dự hội nghị.Phát biểu tại Phiên 2 của hội nghị về Thúc đẩy các động lực mới cho hợp tác thương mại - đầu tư đổi mới và năng động, ông đã đưa ra 4 khuyến nghị cho hợp tác thương mại - đầu tư trong khu vực thời gian tới. Thứ nhất, Nhà nước kiến tạo, doanh nghiệp tiên phong, công - tư đồng hành. Thứ hai, tăng cường hợp tác để từ đó có cơ chế ưu đãi, huy động và sử dụng hiệu quả các nguồn lực với tinh thần “nội lực là cơ bản, chiến lược, lâu dài và quyết định; ngoại lực là quan trọng, đột phá”. Thứ ba, đẩy mạnh hợp tác, phát triển nguồn nhân lực chất lượng cao đáp ứng yêu cầu chuyển đổi xanh, chuyển đổi số. Thứ tư, đẩy mạnh hợp tác và chuyển giao khoa học - công nghệ, trong đó rất cần sự hỗ trợ lẫn nhau giữa các nền kinh tế và từ các doanh nghiệp hàng đầu thế giới, nhất là trong các lĩnh vực trí tuệ nhân tạo, công nghệ sinh học, công nghệ lượng tử, bán dẫn, năng lượng…Hội nghị đã kết thúc ngày 23/5 với việc thông qua Tuyên bố chung của các Bộ trưởng Thương mại APEC kèm phụ lục về Lộ trình Dịch vụ Sáng tạo, Cạnh tranh và Tự cường.Bích Thuận/VOV-Bắc KinhThứ trưởng Bộ Công Thương Nguyễn Sinh Nhật Tân dẫn đầu đoàn Việt Nam tham dự Hội nghị. Ảnh: Bộ Công thương

China will host the 32nd APEC Ministers Responsible for Trade Meeting from Friday to Saturday in Suzhou. The meeting comes amid rising uncertainty in the global economy.

The Second Senior Officials' Meeting of APEC China 2026 is underway in Shanghai, with participants reviewing the APEC cooperation in the first half of the year and preparing for the outcomes of the leaders' meeting and other events throughout the rest of the year.

This is not a mainstream conversation. In this exclusive and deeply investigative episode, Paul Richard Price, author of Tyrus, shares information and connections that are rarely discussed publicly — touching on a growing pattern that raises serious questions about scientists, advanced technology, and what may be happening behind closed doors. At the center of the discussion is a troubling trend: Highly specialized individuals working on advanced propulsion, energy, and space-related technologies — suddenly gone, silenced, or surrounded by unanswered circumstances. Paul brings forward insights tied to Falcon Space, APEC, and emerging technologies that could fundamentally change the world as we know it. According to this perspective, the issue isn't just innovation — it's control over that innovation. This episode explores: Why certain scientists and researchers may be at risk The quiet competition over breakthrough technologies The possibility of classified or restricted advancements far beyond public awareness The connections between real-world events and the narrative presented in Tyrus Why some information may never reach the mainstream What makes this conversation different is the framing:

As U.S. President Donald Trump concludes what he calls a very successful state visit, Chinese President Xi Jinping has highlighted common understandings on trade, expanding cooperation and addressing each other's concerns (01:16). Shanghai is hosting APEC meetings on food safety and women (11:16). And the UK's prime minister is facing a potential challenger after a Labour MP vacated a position in his constituency (22:12).

Good afternoon, I'm _____ with today's episode of EZ News. Tai-Ex opening The Tai-Ex opened up 121-points this morning from yesterday's close, at 41,496 on turnover of 18.4-billion N-T. The market moved sharply lower on Wednesday, as the bellwether electronics sector was dragged down following losses by U-S tech companies on Wall Street overnight amid a surge in inflation in America. Gov't touts Taiwan as a full APEC member The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is insisting that Taiwan remains a full APEC member. It comes after China's Taiwan Affairs Office said Taiwan's participation in the forum is conducted under the "one-China principle." China is hosting this year's APEC events. The foreign ministry here in Taipei says Taiwan formally became a full APEC member economy in 1991 under the name "Chinese Taipei" through the signing of an accession (正式加入) MOU. The ministry is also calling on Beijing to "fulfill its duties and commitments as APEC host in accordance with APEC guidelines, standards, and practices." Taipei expands rat control measures, seeks national monitoring model And, The Taipei City Government's Department of Environmental Protection says its stepping up efforts against rodent infestations by expanding tracking methods … .. while also call central government to establish a unified national monitoring system to better assess (評估) pest control effectiveness. According to the department, until such a system is established, the city will expand its use of the "trap-night" method, while also tracking active rat burrows and public reports as indicators of infestation trends. The department also says it currently has more than 80 disinfection specialists, each assisted by one or two cleaning workers, which should be sufficient to meet current demand. Russia Launches Massive Drone Attack on Ukraine Russia has launched a massive daytime drone attack on Ukraine, firing at least 800 drones across 20 regions of the country. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says at least six people were killed and dozens wounded, including children. Wednesday's targets included the cities of Kyiv, Lviv and Odesa. Zelenskyy is warning of possible cruise and ballistic missile attacks by Moscow following the drone barrage (猛烈的攻擊). U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have suggested the war could be nearing an end. However, they provided no evidence or details to support those statements. BRICS Foreign Ministers meet in New Delhi amid internal rift BRICS foreign ministers are arriving in India today ahead of a key meeting later this week - with the grouping facing fresh internal strain. The Iran conflict is casting a shadow over the bloc - even as New Delhi looks to keep the focus on economic cooperation and Global South priorities. Ishan Garg reports from New Delhi. UK King Outlines Gov Plans King Charles III has outlined the British government's legislative plans as Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces pressure to stay in power. In a ceremonial speech to Parliament, the king emphasized the U.K.'s focus on energy policy, defense, and national security amid the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine. He also pledged action against antisemitism, highlighting British values of decency (正直) and tolerance. Starmer's leadership is under scrutiny (密切觀察，詳細檢查) after significant losses in local elections. Some Labour Party members have urged him to set a departure timetable, and Health Secretary Wes Streeting might challenge him. That was the I.C.R.T. EZ News, I'm _____. －－－－以下為 SoundOn 動態廣告－－－－ 左岸咖啡館乘載巴黎塞納河左岸的人文底蘊，還有每個人對法式生活的美好嚮往。 走進左岸咖啡館，點一杯深焙濃郁的曼特寧風味咖啡，用極致香醇喚醒法式浪漫的靈魂… 享受一個人的獨白時光☕ 我在左岸咖啡館

「高市総理“台湾有事発言”後、初の閣僚訪中」　黄川田男女共同参画大臣が、14日から中国の上海を訪問しています。台湾有事を巡る高市総理の国会答弁後、初めての閣僚の訪中です。黄川田男女共同参画大臣：（Q. 日中関係が冷えこむ中での訪中となりますが？）APEC（アジア太平洋経済協力会議）の「女性と経済」というテーマを中心に、普通にお話しをしてこようかと思っています。15日に国際会議に出席し、中国側との個別の会談は予定されていません。

「黄川田大臣が中国を訪問　高市総理の台湾有事答弁後に閣僚で初　APECの閣僚会合出席のため　中国側と個別会談の予定なし」　台湾有事を巡る高市総理大臣の国会答弁後、初めて日本の閣僚が中国を訪問しています。黄川田男女共同参画大臣は14日夜に羽田空港を出発し、APEC（アジア太平洋経済協力会議）の閣僚会合が開かれる中国の上海を訪れています。黄川田男女共同参画大臣：（Q. 日中関係が冷えこむ中での訪中となりますが）中国からは丁寧な招待状をいただきまして、過度にそこを気にすることなく、まずはAPECの「女性と経済」というテーマを中心に、普通にお話をしてこようかと思っています。2025年11月に国会で、高市総理が「台湾有事」と日本の「存立危機事態」に関する答弁をし、中国が激しく反発して以降、今回が初めての閣僚の訪中です。ただ、黄川田大臣と中国側との個別の会談は予定されていません。

VOV1 - Thực hiện Quyết định số 948/QĐ-TTg ngày 17/5/2025 của Thủ tướng Chính phủ, đến nay tỉnh An Giang đang triển khai 21 dự án trọng điểm phục vụ Hội nghị APEC 2027.Đến thời điểm hiện nay, 21/21 dự án đã hoàn thành công tác lựa chọn nhà đầu tư và nhà thầu thi công, hầu hết các dự án đã được khởi công và đang được triển khai trên thực địa, cơ bản đảm bảo tiến độ chung đề ra. Chính quyền địa phương đã và đang thể hiện tinh thần trách nhiệm cao độ, quyết liệt trong chỉ đạo và triển khai 21 dự án hạ tầng chiến lược, biến Phú Quốc thành một "đại công trường" khẩn trương và chuyên nghiệp.Ngay từ những ngày đầu, tinh thần "quyết liệt, thường xuyên, liên tục" đã được quán triệt từ Ban Thường vụ Tỉnh ủy An Giang đến từng cán bộ cơ sở. Dưới sự chỉ đạo trực tiếp của Bí thư Tỉnh ủy và lãnh đạo UBND tỉnh, hàng loạt cơ chế đặc thù đã được vận dụng. Đặc biệt, Chỉ thị 07 của UBND tỉnh đã xác định rõ: Phú Quốc phải ưu tiên tối đa mọi nguồn lực cho công tác giải phóng mặt bằng và thi công hạ tầng phục vụ APEC.

Một cái bắt tay đơn giản cũng có thể mang lại cho Tập Cận Bình "thành công rực rỡ" trước thềm đại hội đảng.Xem thêm.

Invitado: Eduardo Pedrosa, Director Ejecutivo del Secretariado de APEC.Conduce: Emb. Ricardo Pineda, embajador adscrito al Instituto Matías Romero.

Macca and Zoe are joined live on air by Professor Mark Kenny, from ANU, as he discusses his recent panel at the Sorrento Writer’s Festival, is podcasting re-shaping the media landscape? Professor Mark Kenny is a political journalist, commentator, and academic, formerly chief political correspondent and national affairs editor for The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, and The Canberra Times. A regular on ABC's Insiders and Sky News, he has reported from locations including Kandahar, Beijing, and the Vatican, covering global summits such as G20 and APEC. Now at ANU, his research focuses on national politics, democracy, and the rise of populism The post ANZAC Day 2026: Prof. Mark Kenny, Podcasting Mania: Has it Re-shaped the Media Landscape? appeared first on Saturday Magazine.

- Tỉnh An Giang bố trí vốn hơn 12.000 tỷ đồng trong năm 2026 cho các dự án phục vụ Hội nghị APEC;- Thị trường chứng khoán phiên giao dịch cuối tuần trước, lực bán gia tăng, VN-Index giảm về dưới 1.770 điểm.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi says China will focus on translating the goal of building an Asia-Pacific community into action, and turn the blueprint into reality.

Shownotes are AI slop as usual. It's a week late cause nobody bothered to tell me it was recorded. Apologies for lack of freshness. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack are back for Episode 144, recorded on 12 February. It's Liberal Party leadership spill eve and the boys break down whether Angus Taylor has the numbers to end Susan Ley's tenure — and what sort of baggage he'll carry into the job. From there: a landmark High Court ruling on the Catholic Church's duty of care for survivors of clergy abuse; the protests surrounding Israeli President Isaac Herzog's visit to Australia; the widening Epstein-Mandelson catastrophe engulfing Keir Starmer; the slow collapse of the Washington Post; Japan's election result and its implications for China; and a packed sports segment covering the T20 World Cup, AFL State of Origin, the Rugby World Cup opener, and the Winter Olympics.Show Notes & Timestamps

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi says the country will push for a clear and substantive outcome document at the APEC Leaders' Meeting later this year.

The high court in Hong Kong has sentenced Jimmy Lai to a 20-year prison term for his role in anti-China riots in the city (01:07). A senior diplomat says China will help boost Asia-Pacific cooperation and advance regional economic integration, as the APEC China Year kicks off in Guangzhou (07:17). China records about 1.4 billion passenger trips in the first week of the Spring Festival travel rush (36:51).

Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu says China's hosting of the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting will inject strong momentum into regional cooperation in the Asia-Pacific.

Keith Humphreys, a leading expert on addiction psychiatry, based at Stanford University, unpacks his January article in Science examining the steep reduction in overdoses deaths—between May 2023 and the end of 2024—in the United States and Canada. It likely stemmed from a supply shock, linked to steps taken by China to disrupt the supply of fentanyl and precursor chemicals. Underneath, US-China diplomacy was essential. This story was lost during the 2024 US presidential election cycle. Subsequently, President Trump's overt threats to China, including the imposition of a 20% tariff tied to fentanyl, changed the negotiating context. Some progress followed on October 30 when Presidents XI and Trump met on the margins of the APEC summit in South Korea.

China will host the first APEC Senior Officials' Meeting for 2026 in Guangzhou from February 1 to 10, focusing on building an Asia-Pacific community and promoting shared prosperity.

El gobierno chino cierra el primer año del segundo mandato de Donald Trump con un notable optimismo. La decisión de Trump de replegarse de ciertos compromisos, especialmente en Europa, para centrarse en Hispanoamérica, ha sido interpretada en Pekín como una oportunidad estratégica. La creciente brecha entre EEUU y sus aliados europeos refuerza la convicción china de que el futuro les sonríe. Muchos analistas sitúan el punto de inflexión en la reciente guerra comercial. Las restricciones chinas a la exportación de tierras raras obligaron a Trump a retroceder, consolidando así un cambio estructural en la relación bilateral: la Casa Blanca reconoce la importancia de China y adopta una actitud más realista y respetuosa. Pero esta euforia podría ser prematura. El crecimiento económico chino se desacelera desde hace años, persiste la burbuja inmobiliaria, el consumo interno se debilita y el desempleo juvenil aumenta. Ante estas tensiones internas el nacionalismo sirve como válvula de escape. El repliegue estadounidense hacia las Américas y el aparente desinterés de Trump por defender Taiwán reducen las perspectivas de supervivencia de la isla. En Pekín, la reunificación ya no es un “si”, sino un “cuándo”, posiblemente antes de 2030. Xi Jinping prefiere una anexión pacífica para evitar los altos costes de una guerra similar a la de Ucrania. La influencia china en Taiwán es cada vez mayor y parte de la población no se opondría. Esta confianza se refleja en respuestas agresivas, como las sanciones a Japón tras la declaraciones de su primera ministra sobre una posible intervención en Taiwán, o roces fronterizos con la India. Algunos medios oficialistas incluso reclaman la isla de Okinawa. El desorden en Occidente, la inacabable guerra de Ucrania y la presión sobre sus aliados abre una oportunidad económica y política para China. Estados Unidos y China poseen una serie de cartas estratégicas. EEUU cuenta con los aranceles y las restricciones a semiconductores avanzados. China, por su parte, controla el 70% de la tierras raras y una porción significativa de la cadena farmacéutica global. La escalada comercial comenzó con Trump elevando aranceles y endureciendo controles sobre los chips avanzados para inteligencia artificial. China respondió restringiendo el suministro de tierras raras, lo que les llevó a la mesa de negociaciones y a la firma de un acuerdo en la cumbre APEC de octubre. Xi Jinping levantó las restricciones a cambio de una reducción en los aranceles y la relajación temporal de controles sobre semiconductores. Ambos lados trabajan para neutralizar las ventajas del otro. Occidente busca desesperadamente ganar autonomía en lo relativo a las tierras raras. Están dispuestos a relajar su exigente normativa medioambiental e incluso a poner fondos públicos. China no quiere quedarse atrás y ha acelerado los desarrollos propios de semiconductores avanzados. La carta farmacéutica china es especialmente poderosa y compleja. Los chinos gozan de una posición dominante en medicamentos genéricos, principios activos, antibióticos e instrumental médico de cierta relevancia. Durante la pandemia ya se pudo ver la importancia de China en este aspecto. En Pekín aún no han utilizado aún esta palanca ya que son conscientes de la agria reacción que provocaría en todo el mundo, pero representa una ventaja difícil de contrarrestar en el corto plazo. En La ContraRéplica: 0:00 Introducción 3:59 Las cartas de China 33:47 "Contra el pesimismo”… https://amzn.to/4m1RX2R 35:51 Los límites de la IA 46:40 Divisas en Cuba 55:20 ¿Por qué hay un monumento a Bolívar en Madrid? · Canal de Telegram: https://t.me/lacontracronica · “Contra el pesimismo”… https://amzn.to/4m1RX2R · “Hispanos. Breve historia de los pueblos de habla hispana”… https://amzn.to/428js1G · “La ContraHistoria del comunismo”… https://amzn.to/39QP2KE · “La ContraHistoria de España. Auge, caída y vuelta a empezar de un país en 28 episodios”… https://amzn.to/3kXcZ6i · “Contra la Revolución Francesa”… https://amzn.to/4aF0LpZ · “Lutero, Calvino y Trento, la Reforma que no fue”… https://amzn.to/3shKOlK Apoya La Contra en: · Patreon... https://www.patreon.com/diazvillanueva · iVoox... https://www.ivoox.com/podcast-contracronica_sq_f1267769_1.html · Paypal... https://www.paypal.me/diazvillanueva Sígueme en: · Web... https://diazvillanueva.com · Twitter... https://twitter.com/diazvillanueva · Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/fernandodiazvillanueva1/ · Instagram... https://www.instagram.com/diazvillanueva · Linkedin… https://www.linkedin.com/in/fernando-d%C3%ADaz-villanueva-7303865/ · Flickr... https://www.flickr.com/photos/147276463@N05/?/ · Pinterest... https://www.pinterest.com/fernandodiazvillanueva Encuentra mis libros en: · Amazon... https://www.amazon.es/Fernando-Diaz-Villanueva/e/B00J2ASBXM #FernandoDiazVillanueva #china #eeuu Escucha el episodio completo en la app de iVoox, o descubre todo el catálogo de iVoox Originals

0:00 - Introduction: Why is Israel the internet's villain?1:45 - Shift in public perception and political criticism of Israel3:00 - Online reactions to the ceasefire and continued protests5:51 - Defining Zionism: History and misunderstandings9:25 - APEC, lobbying, and Jewish influence in American politics15:24 - Rise of anti-Israel sentiment across political and religious groups17:07 - Talmud, spitting controversies, and treatment of Christians in Israel19:29 - Armenian experience in Israel and unresolved tensions22:50 - Gaza, October 7th, and the international response24:11 - Proportional comparison between October 7th and 9/1126:27 - Accusations of genocide and media manipulation in the conflict30:15 - Double standards and the misuse of scholarly consensus32:19 - Misconceptions about Israeli society and demographics34:44 - Campus antisemitism and failure to protect Jewish students

PREVIEW. China's APEC Goal: Buying Time Amidst Internal Power Factions. John Batchelor and General Blaine Holt discuss the US-China APEC deal, suggesting China's only goal was to buy time. This time is crucial because Xi Jinping is an "ornamental leader," and various factions are vying for control of the Chinese Communist Party. The conversation also notes increasing unrest and rising public anger among the Chinese people. 1906

SHOW 11-4-25 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR 18865 PUBLISHER ROW THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT NEW YORK CITY AND LONDON. FIRST HOUR 9-915 Economic Policy and China Trade. Elizabeth Peek discusses the US economy, where Treasury Secretary Bessent asserts that housing is in recession due to high Federal Reserve rates. Peek argues that lower rates are needed to "unstick" the housing market. The Fed, led by Jay Powell, is fixated on inflation, though Peek questions his rationale regarding tariffs and labor demand. The conversation also covers the Trump-Xi meeting, which was anticlimactic, postponing confrontation for a year. Key concessions included China relenting on rare earth exports and American soybean boycotts. 915-930 Economic Policy and China Trade. Elizabeth Peek discusses the US economy, where Treasury Secretary Bessent asser 930-945 The Far Right in Europe and German Rearmament. Judy Dempsey examines the rise of Europe's far right, noting that while they succeed in complaining, they often struggle to govern, exe. 945-1000 The Far Right in Europe and German Rearmament. Judy Dempsey examines the rise of Europe's far right, noting that while they succeed in complaining, they often struggle to govern, exemplified by t. SECOND HOUR 1245-100 AM Nigeria, Venezuela Intervention, and China Power Struggles. Gregory Copley discusses Trump's order for military action in Nigeria, noting the violence is complex and not strictly genocide against Christians, contrasting it with US refusal to provide past aid. Discussion shifts to the overwhelming US military buildup near Venezuela, which might force Maduro's departure by damaging his credibility, possibly via anti-narcotics action. The interview concludes by analyzing the anticlimactic Trump-Xi meeting, attributing the lack of confrontation to Xi Jinping's significantly weakened position due to China's shattered economy and internal power struggles. SHOW 11-4-25 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT NEW YORK CITY AND LONDON. FIRST HOUR 9-915 Economic Policy and China Trade. Elizabeth Peek discusses the US economy, where Treasury Secretary Bessent asserts that housing is in recession due to high Federal Reserve rates. Peek argues that lower rates are needed to "unstick" the housing market. The Fed, led by Jay Powell, is fixated on inflation, though Peek questions his rationale regarding tariffs and labor demand. The conversation also covers the Trump-Xi meeting, which was anticlimactic, postponing confrontation for a year. Key concessions included China relenting on rare earth exports and American soybean boycotts. 915-930 Economic Policy and China Trade. Elizabeth Peek discusses the US economy, where Treasury . 930-945 The Far Right in Europe and German Rearmament. Judy Dempsey examines the rise of Europe's far right, noting that while they succeed in complaining, they often struggle to govern, exemplified by the AfD's lack of concrete policies. Hungary's Viktor Orbán, though long-ruling, now faces popular pressure. Dempsey highlights Italy's Giorgia Meloni as an exception who has successfully governed by clearly communicating her reform agenda. She confirms that Russia supports destabilizing far-right movements across Europe, particularly hoping for an AfD win. Additionally, Germany's Chancellor Merz is committed to redeveloping the military and infrastructure for NATO defense. 945-1000 The Far Right in Europe and German Rearmament. Judy Dempsey examines the rise of Europe's far right, noting that while they succeed in complaining, they often struggle to govern, exemplified by the AfD's lack of concrete policies. Hungary's Viktor Orbán, though long-ruling, now faces popular pressure. Dempsey highlights Italy's Giorgia Meloni as an exception who has successfully governed by clearly communicating her reform agenda. She confirms that Russia supports destabilizing far-right movements across Europe, particularly hoping for an AfD win. Additionally, Germany's Chancellor Merz is committed to redeveloping the military and infrastructure for NATO defense. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 Venezuela Pressure Campaign and Asian Diplomacy. Mary Kissel analyzes the massive US military buildup near Venezuela, staged from Roosevelt Roads, noting that the Trump administration prioritizes removing Maduro due to national security threats. She emphasizes that the State Department possesses numerous non-military levers, like sanctions and international pressure through the OAS, to induce Maduro's exit without direct intervention. Kissel also characterizes President Trump's diplomatic engagement at ASEAN and APEC as very successful, securing vital commitments on rare earth mining and processing to counter Chinese economic threats in the Pacific. 1015-1030 Venezuela Pressure Campaign and Asian Diplomacy. Mary Kissel analyzes the massive US military buildup near Venezuela, staged from Roosevelt Roads, noting that the Trump administration prioritizes removing Maduro due to national security threats. She emphasizes that the State Department possesses numerous non-military levers, like sanctions and international pressure through the OAS, to induce Maduro's exit without direct intervention. Kissel also characterizes President Trump's diplomatic engagement at ASEAN and APEC as very successful, securing vital commitments on rare earth mining and processing to counter Chinese economic threats in the Pacific. 1030-1045 Hamas Leverage, Gaza Ruin, and Hezbollah Rearmament. Jonathan Schanzer explains that Hamas is stalling hostage releases to maintain leverage, banking on Israel's lack of "strategic patience" for indefinite occupation. He explores the idea of a "Tale of Two Gazas," where Israel controls 53% and Hamas 47%, warning that reconstruction aid is improbable if Hamas remains in power. He highlights growing dangers, including the rearming of Hezbollah by Iran and unexpectedly Turkey, forcing Israel to reconsider the northern front. He adds that the Israeli military is actively engaged in "constant gardening" to address armed gangs in the West Bank. 1045-1100 Hamas Leverage, Gaza Ruin, and Hezbollah Rearmament. Jonathan Schanzer explains that Hamas is stalling hostage releases to maintain leverage, banking on Israel's lack of "strategic patience" for indefinite occupation. He explores the idea of a "Tale of Two Gazas," where Israel controls 53% and Hamas 47%, warning that reconstruction aid is improbable if Hamas remains in power. He highlights growing dangers, including the rearming of Hezbollah by Iran and unexpectedly Turkey, forcing Israel to reconsider the northern front. He adds that the Israeli military is actively engaged in "constant gardening" to address armed gangs in the West Bank. THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 The Rise of Extremist Politics in the US and UK. Joseph Sternberg analyzes the rise of extreme political figures like New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, warning conservatives that opponents' political mistak 1115-1130 The Rise of Extremist Politics in the US and UK. Joseph Sternberg analyzes the rise of extreme political figures like New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, warning conservatives that opponents' political mistakes do not guarantee their success, citing the UK's Jeremy Corbyn as a parallel. He notes that frustrated voters seek "sledgehammers" on both the left and right. In the UK, he details how Chancellor Rachel Reeves and the Labour government are suffering plummeting approval due to economic mismanagement, forcing tax hikes and breaking promises, benefiting Nigel Farage's Reform UK party. 1130-1145 Nuclear Testing, Venezuela Buildup, and Gaza Occupation. Colonel Jeff McCausland criticizes Secretary Hegseth's suggestion that resuming nuclear testing would make nuclear war "less likely," noting that the US deterrent is already credible and testing would destabilize adversaries. He highlights the excessive US military buildup near Venezuela, questioning the post-intervention mission, referencing the "Pottery Barn theory." Regarding Gaza, he suggests the potential creation of "two Gazas" leads to an indefinite, burdensome Israeli occupation and creates a breeding ground for future insurgency. 1145-1200 Nuclear Testing, Venezuela Buildup, and Gaza Occupation. Colonel Jeff McCausland criticizes Secretary Hegseth's suggestion that resuming nuclear testing would make nuclear war "less likely," noting that the US deterrent is already credible and testing would destabilize adversaries. He highlights the excessive US military buildup near Venezuela, questioning the post-intervention mission, referencing the "Pottery Barn theory." Regarding Gaza, he suggests the potential creation of "two Gazas" leads to an indefinite, burdensome Israeli occupation and creates a breeding ground for future insurgency. FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 Nigeria, Venezuela Intervention, and China Power Struggles. Gregory Copley discusses Trump's order for military action in Nige. 1215-1230 Nigeria, Venezuela Intervention, and China Power Struggles. Gregory Copley discusses Trump's order for military  1230-1245 Nigeria, Venezuela Intervention, and China Power Struggles. Gregory Copley discusses Trump's order for military action in Nigeria, noting the violence is complex and not strictly genocide against Christians, contrasting it with US refusal to provide past aid. Discussion shifts to the overwhelming US military buildup near Venezuela, which might force Maduro's departure by damaging his credibility, possibly via anti-narcotics action. The interview concludes by analyzing the anticlimactic Trump-Xi meeting, attributing the lack of confrontation to Xi Jinping's significantly weakened position due to China's shattered economy and internal power struggles. 1245-100 AM Nigeria, Venezuela Intervention, and China Power Struggles. Gregory Copley d

Canada's Troubled Relations with China and the US. Charles Burton (author of The Beaver and the Dragon) analyzes Canadian Prime Minister Carney's meeting with China's Xi Jinping following the APEC conference. Burton described Carney as a "supplicant" who echoed Chinese rhetoric of "constructive and pragmatic interactions," which means focusing on trade while avoiding criticism. Issues discussed included Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola and Canada's tariffs on subsidized Chinese EVs. Burton addresses the severely strained Ottawa-Washington relationship due to US tariffs and President Trump's stated unwillingness to talk, feeding "anti-American sentiment" in Canada. This trade uncertainty is a factor in Canada's massive budget deficit, which aims to fund government infrastructure to compensate for lacking investor interest. Furthermore, concerns persist in Canada regarding Chinese EVs potentially functioning as "listening posts" for state security. 1861

Canada's Troubled Relations with China and the US. Charles Burton (author of The Beaver and the Dragon) analyzes Canadian Prime Minister Carney's meeting with China's Xi Jinping following the APEC conference. Burton described Carney as a "supplicant" who echoed Chinese rhetoric of "constructive and pragmatic interactions," which means focusing on trade while avoiding criticism. Issues discussed included Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola and Canada's tariffs on subsidized Chinese EVs. Burton addresses the severely strained Ottawa-Washington relationship due to US tariffs and President Trump's stated unwillingness to talk, feeding "anti-American sentiment" in Canada. This trade uncertainty is a factor in Canada's massive budget deficit, which aims to fund government infrastructure to compensate for lacking investor interest. Furthermore, concerns persist in Canada regarding Chinese EVs potentially functioning as "listening posts" for state security. 1907

SHOW 11-5-25 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT AI AND CHILDREN. FIRST HOUR 9-915 Canada's Troubled Relations with China and the US. Charles Burton (author of The Beaver and the Dragon) analyzes Canadian Prime Minister Carney's meeting with China's Xi Jinping following the APEC conference. Burton described Carney as a "supplicant" who echoed Chinese rhetoric of "constructive and pragmatic interactions," which means focusing on trade while avoiding criticism. Issues discussed included Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola and Canada's tariffs on subsidized Chinese EVs. Burton addresses the severely strained Ottawa-Washington relationship due to US tariffs and President Trump's stated unwillingness to talk, feeding "anti-American sentiment" in Canada. This trade uncertainty is a factor in Canada's massive budget deficit, which aims to fund government infrastructure to compensate for lacking investor interest. Furthermore, concerns persist in Canada regarding Chinese EVs potentially functioning as "listening posts" for state security. 915-930 Canada's Troubled Relations with China and the US. Charles Burton (author of The Beaver and the Dragon) analyzes Canadian Prime Minister Carney's meeting with China's Xi Jinping following the APEC conference. Burton described Carney as a "supplicant" who echoed Chinese rhetoric of "constructive and pragmatic interactions," which means focusing on trade while avoiding criticism. Issues discussed included Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola and Canada's tariffs on subsidized Chinese EVs. Burton addresses the severely strained Ottawa-Washington relationship due to US tariffs and President Trump's stated unwillingness to talk, feeding "anti-American sentiment" in Canada. This trade uncertainty is a factor in Canada's massive budget deficit, which aims to fund government infrastructure to compensate for lacking investor interest. Furthermore, concerns persist in Canada regarding Chinese EVs potentially functioning as "listening posts" for state security. 930-945 The Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education. Peter Berkowitz (Hoover Institution Fellow and educator) discusses the Trump administration's "Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education," which requires universities to meet ten priorities to qualify for federal benefits like student loans and research grants. While many goals are proper or already legally required (like protecting free speech and obeying civil rights laws), several are highly controversial. These controversial points include demanding that hiring decisions be made solely on individual "merit," which critics redefine to include group diversity, and requiring universities to maintain institutional neutrality on political issues. Most universities rejected the compact, asserting it would impair academic freedom. Berkowitz suggests the administration should use direct financial incentives to reward universities that actively teach free speech, rather than relying on mandates. 945-1000 The Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education. Peter Berkowitz (Hoover Institution Fellow and educator) discusses the Trump administration's "Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education," which requires universities to meet ten priorities to qualify for federal benefits like student loans and research grants. While many goals are proper or already legally required (like protecting free speech and obeying civil rights laws), several are highly controversial. These controversial points include demanding that hiring decisions be made solely on individual "merit," which critics redefine to include group diversity, and requiring universities to maintain institutional neutrality on political issues. Most universities rejected the compact, asserting it would impair academic freedom. Berkowitz suggests the administration should use direct financial incentives to reward universities that actively teach free speech, rather than relying on mandates. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 US-China Ceasefire and Competition in Technology and Space. Jack Burnham (Foundation for Defense of Democracies research analyst) characterizes the Trump-Xi meeting as a necessary "truce" that allows both nations to gain stability and strengthen their positions before the next escalation. Regarding rare earths, China is now employing the US "playbook," setting up a licensing structure rather than a full trade cessation. He emphasizes that building a complete rare earth supply chain outside of China, especially refining capacity, may realistically take seven to ten years. In technology, Beijing is pushing for domestic self-sufficiency in AI infrastructure, partly driven by paranoia that imported chips may contain backdoors or vulnerabilities. Burnham also details China's commitment to militarizing space, including copying US reconnaissance capabilities and practicing anti-satellite operations like "dogfighting." 1015-1030 US-China Ceasefire and Competition in Technology and Space. Jack Burnham (Foundation for Defense of Democracies research analyst) characterizes the Trump-Xi meeting as a necessary "truce" that allows both nations to gain stability and strengthen their positions before the next escalation. Regarding rare earths, China is now employing the US "playbook," setting up a licensing structure rather than a full trade cessation. He emphasizes that building a complete rare earth supply chain outside of China, especially refining capacity, may realistically take seven to ten years. In technology, Beijing is pushing for domestic self-sufficiency in AI infrastructure, partly driven by paranoia that imported chips may contain backdoors or vulnerabilities. Burnham also details China's commitment to militarizing space, including copying US reconnaissance capabilities and practicing anti-satellite operations like "dogfighting." 1030-1045 AI Philosophy and Jewish Wisdom. Spencer Klavan (Associate Editor of the Claremont Review of Books) reviews Michael M. Rosen's book, Like Silicon from Clay, which uses ancient Jewish wisdom, specifically the Golem legend, to analyze AI. Rosen categorizes AI believers into four camps: autonomists (who believe AI will achieve consciousness or sentience) and automationists (who view AI as a sophisticated, non-conscious tool). Both camps are divided into "positive" (optimistic) and "negative" (pessimistic) outlooks. Klavan identifies as a positive automationist, seeing AI as an "elaborate adding machine" or "better Google" that is helpful but requires human verification because it often "hallucinates" (makes up facts). He notes that chatbots conclude conversations with questions because they need human input to avoid becoming "deranged" and to improve their ability to predict human speech patterns. 1045-1100 AI Philosophy and Jewish Wisdom. Spencer Klavan (Associate Editor of the Claremont Review of Books) reviews Michael M. Rosen's book, Like Silicon from Clay, which uses ancient Jewish wisdom, specifically the Golem legend, to analyze AI. Rosen categorizes AI believers into four camps: autonomists (who believe AI will achieve consciousness or sentience) and automationists (who view AI as a sophisticated, non-conscious tool). Both camps are divided into "positive" (optimistic) and "negative" (pessimistic) outlooks. Klavan identifies as a positive automationist, seeing AI as an "elaborate adding machine" or "better Google" that is helpful but requires human verification because it often "hallucinates" (makes up facts). He notes that chatbots conclude conversations with questions because they need human input to avoid becoming "deranged" and to improve their ability to predict human speech patterns. THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 US Military Operations off Venezuela and the War in Ukraine. General Blaine Holt (United States Air Force retired) analyzes the significant US military buildup off Venezuela, headquartered at Roosevelt Roads, describing it as a "war-winning force" primarily targeting cartels and sending a global message of American might. He suggests that operations will likely use commando-style tactics rather than a full occupation, potentially leveraging historical events like the Bay of Pigs as cover for unconventional approaches. The conversation pivots to Ukraine, where Russia is effectively using new glide bombs and missiles, having shifted to a wartime mobilization economy. Holt notes the profound erosion of Ukraine's infrastructure and the demoralizing lack of manpower. He argues innovative, inexpensive defenses, such as Reaper drones with Sidewinders or lasers, are needed, as current air defense economics are unsustainable. 1115-1130 US Military Operations off Venezuela and the War in Ukraine. General Blaine Holt (United States Air Force retired) analyzes the significant US military buildup off Venezuela, headquartered at Roosevelt Roads, describing it as a "war-winning force" primarily targeting cartels and sending a global message of American might. He suggests that operations will likely use commando-style tactics rather than a full occupation, potentially leveraging historical events like the Bay of Pigs as cover for unconventional approaches. The conversation pivots to Ukraine, where Russia is effectively using new glide bombs and missiles, having shifted to a wartime mobilization economy. Holt notes the profound erosion of Ukraine's infrastructure and the demoralizing lack of manpower. He argues innovative, inexpensive defenses, such as Reaper drones with Sidewinders or lasers, are needed, as current air defense economics are unsustainable. 1130-1145 The Dominance of the US Dollar and Its Challenges. Alex Pollock (Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute) discusses Kenneth Rogoff's book, Our Currency, Your Problem, focusing on why the US dollar remains the dominant global currency. The dollar's strength is linked to US military power and superior legal and bankruptcy systems, which provide essential "social infrastructure." Pollock recalls the famous quip, "Our currency, your problem," made by Treasury Secretary John Connally in 1971 after the US defaulted on its gold obligations under the Bretton Woods system. Challenges from the Chinese renminbi and crypto are noted, but Rogoff finds serious institutional flaws in China's system. Critically, the growing US national debt is identified as the dollar's "Achilles heel," posing a major threat if global lenders stop lending. 1145-1200 The Dominance of the US Dollar and Its Challenges. Alex Pollock (Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute) discusses Kenneth Rogoff's book, Our Currency, Your Problem, focusing on why the US dollar remains the dominant global currency. The dollar's strength is linked to US military power and superior legal and bankruptcy systems, which provide essential "social infrastructure." Pollock recalls the famous quip, "Our currency, your problem," made by Treasury Secretary John Connally in 1971 after the US defaulted on its gold obligations under the Bretton Woods system. Challenges from the Chinese renminbi and crypto are noted, but Rogoff finds serious institutional flaws in China's system. Critically, the growing US national debt is identified as the dollar's "Achilles heel," posing a major threat if global lenders stop lending. FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 1215-1230 1230-1245 Private Space Enterprise, Artemis Debate, and the Human Body in Space. Bob Zimmerman (Behind the Black) reviews the private space sector, highlighting VAST, which is developing the small manned demo space station Haven One using its own investment capital, unlike other NASA-funded consortiums. VAST's larger planned station, Haven 2, is designed to rotate, creating artificial gravity. This capability is crucial for mitigating the damage extended weightlessness causes the human body, such as cardiovascular weakening, bone density loss, and vision problems (the eye flattens). Zimmerman notes the ongoing debate over NASA's Artemis program, where former administrators clash over SpaceX's ability to build the lunar lander on time, often driven by lobbying interests. He also reports that China recently set a new national record for successful launches in a single year (67 completed). 1245-100 AM Private Space Enterprise, Artemis Debate, and the Human Body in Space. Bob Zimmerman (Behind the Black) reviews the private space sector, highlighting VAST, which is developing the small manned demo space station Haven One using its own investment capital, unlike other NASA-funded consortiums. VAST's larger planned station, Haven 2, is designed to rotate, creating artificial gravity. This capability is crucial for mitigating the damage extended weightlessness causes the human body, such as cardiovascular weakening, bone density loss, and vision problems (the eye flattens). Zimmerman notes the ongoing debate over NASA's Artemis program, where former administrators clash over SpaceX's ability to build the lunar lander on time, often driven by lobbying interests. He also reports that China recently set a new national record for successful launches in a single year (67 completed).

Venezuela Pressure Campaign and Asian Diplomacy. Mary Kissel analyzes the massive US military buildup near Venezuela, staged from Roosevelt Roads, noting that the Trump administration prioritizes removing Maduro due to national security threats. She emphasizes that the State Department possesses numerous non-military levers, like sanctions and international pressure through the OAS, to induce Maduro's exit without direct intervention. Kissel also characterizes President Trump's diplomatic engagement at ASEAN and APEC as very successful, securing vital commitments on rare earth mining and processing to counter Chinese economic threats in the Pacific.

Venezuela Pressure Campaign and Asian Diplomacy. Mary Kissel analyzes the massive US military buildup near Venezuela, staged from Roosevelt Roads, noting that the Trump administration prioritizes removing Maduro due to national security threats. She emphasizes that the State Department possesses numerous non-military levers, like sanctions and international pressure through the OAS, to induce Maduro's exit without direct intervention. Kissel also characterizes President Trump's diplomatic engagement at ASEAN and APEC as very successful, securing vital commitments on rare earth mining and processing to counter Chinese economic threats in the Pacific. 1876 BOLIVAR ENTERS CARACAS

PREVIEW. Canada-China Trade Talks and EV Security Concerns. Charles Burton discusses Canada-China trade talks (Carney/Xi) post-APEC concerning resuming and enhancing trade. Concerns include China exporting thousands of EVs, potentially overwhelming domestic industries and acting as security threats. Canada hopes China will manufacture EVs locally to offset Canadian auto job losses, but Burton is skeptical of this strategy and considers the Canadian government ill-advised.

From the BBC World Service: Markets in Asia rose in reaction to the outcome of the APEC meetings in South Korea as the U.S. and China stepped back from the brink of a full-fledged trade war. Plus, reports suggest India is looking for new sources to replace the oil it currently buys from Russia. And, we look at Cameroon's mining industry, which is often done by small-scale miners working in risky environments with basic tools.

From the BBC World Service: Markets in Asia rose in reaction to the outcome of the APEC meetings in South Korea as the U.S. and China stepped back from the brink of a full-fledged trade war. Plus, reports suggest India is looking for new sources to replace the oil it currently buys from Russia. And, we look at Cameroon's mining industry, which is often done by small-scale miners working in risky environments with basic tools.

From the BBC World Service: Chinese President Xi Jinping told leaders attending the APEC summit in South Korea of the need to deepen economic cooperation amid global uncertainty. We'll hear the latest on trade agreements between the U.S. and China, as well as other new developments. Then, Jamaica's government issued a catastrophe bond as it begins recovery from Hurricane Melissa. And later, would you spend money on a job search to try to get a leg up?

From the BBC World Service: Chinese President Xi Jinping told leaders attending the APEC summit in South Korea of the need to deepen economic cooperation amid global uncertainty. We'll hear the latest on trade agreements between the U.S. and China, as well as other new developments. Then, Jamaica's government issued a catastrophe bond as it begins recovery from Hurricane Melissa. And later, would you spend money on a job search to try to get a leg up?

Our analysts Ariana Salvatore and Erin Wright explain the pivotal role of healthcare in negotiations to end the government shutdown.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Public Policy Strategist. Erin Wright: And I'm Erin Wright, U.S. Healthcare Services Analyst. Ariana Salvatore: Today we'll talk about what the U.S. government shutdown means for healthcare. It's Thursday, October 30th at 12pm in New York. Thus far, it seems like markets haven't really been paying too much attention to the government shutdown. Obviously, we're aware of the cumulative economic impact that builds every week that it lasts. But we haven't seen any movement from the political front either this week or last, which signals that it could be going on for a while longer. That being said, the end of this month is an important catalyst for a few reasons. First of all, you have the potential rollover of SNAP benefits. You have another potential missed military paycheck. And most importantly, the open enrollment period for healthcare plans. Polling is still showing neither side coming out on top with a clear advantage. Absent that changing, you probably need to see one of two things happen to have any movement forward on this front. Either more direct involvement from President Trump as he wraps up the APEC meeting or some sort of exogenous economic event, like a strike from air traffic controllers. Those types of events obviously are difficult to predict this far in advance. But up until now we know that President Trump has not really been involved in the debate. And the FAA seems to be operating a little bit with delays, but as usual. So, Erin, let's pivot to what's topical in here from a healthcare policy perspective. What are investors that you speak with paying the most attention to? Erin Wright: You bring up some important points Ariana. But from a policy perspective, it's very much an always top of mind for healthcare investors here. Right now, it is a key negotiating factor when it comes to the government shutdown. So, the shutdown debate is predominantly centered around the Affordable Care Act or the healthcare exchanges. This was a part of Obamacare. It was a program where individuals can purchase standalone health insurance through an exchange marketplace.The program has been wildly popular. It's been wildly popular in recent years with 24 million members. Growing 30 per cent last year, particularly with enhanced subsidies that are being offered today. So those subsidies are expected to expire at the end of this year, and those exchange members could be left with some real sticker shock – especially when we're going to see premium increases that could, on average, increase about 25 to 30 percent, in some states even more. So, folks are really starting to see that now. November 1st will be a key date here as open enrollment period begins. Ariana Salvatore: Right. So, as you mentioned, this is pretty key to the entire shutdown debate. Republicans are in favor of letting the expanded subsidies roll off. Democrats want to restore them to that COVID level enhancement. Of course, there's probably some middle path here, and we have seen some background reporting indicating that lawmakers are talking about a potential middle path or concession. So, talk me through what's on the table in terms of negotiating a potential compromise or extension of these subsidies. Erin Wright: So, we could see a permutation of outcomes here. Maybe we don't get a full extension, but we could see something partial come through. We could see something in terms of income caps, which restrict, kind of, the level of participants in the AC exchanges. You could see out-of-pocket minimums, which would eliminate some of those shadow members that we've been seeing and have been problematic across the space. And then you could also grandfather in some existing members that get subsidies today. So, all of those could offer some degrees of positive. And some degrees of relief when it comes to broader healthcare services, when it comes to insurance companies, when it comes to others that are participating in this program, as well as the individuals themselves. So, it's really a patient dynamic that's getting real here. A lot is on the table, but a lot is at stake with the potential for the sunsetting of these subsidies to drive 4 million in uninsured lives. So, it is meaningful, and I think that that's something we have to kind of put into perspective here.So, would love to know Ariana though, beyond healthcare, what are some of those key debates in terms of the negotiations around the shutdown? Ariana Salvatore: Healthcare really is central to this debate. So aside from just the ACA subsidies that we talked about, some Democrats have also been pushing for a repeal or rollback of some of the pieces of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that passed earlier this year. That was the fiscal bill of Republicans passed through the reconciliation process – that included some cuts to Medicaid down the line. So, there's been talk around that front. I think more of a clear path on the subsidies front, because that seems to be something that Republicans are treating as an absolute no-go. Some of the other really key debates are around just kind of how to keep the ball rolling while we're still in the shutdown. So, I mentioned SNAP at first, the potential release of some contingency funds there. Again, the military paychecks are really critical. And, of course, what this all means for incoming data, which is really important – not just for investors but also for the Fed, as it kind of calibrate[s] their next move. In particular, as we head into the December meeting. I think we got a little bit of a hawkish surprise in yesterday's meeting, and that's something that investors were not expecting. So, obviously the longer that this goes on, the more those risks just continue to grow, and this deadline that we're talking about is a really critical one. It's coming up soon. So we should have a sense of how our prognosis pans out in the coming days. Thanks for the conversation, Erin. Erin Wright: Great talking to you, Ariana. Ariana Salvatore: And to our audience, thanks for listening. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review wherever you listen. And if you like Thoughts on the Market, tell a friend or colleague about the podcast today.

From the BBC World Service: U.S. President Donald Trump is in South Korea for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum, or APEC. As U.S. tariffs in the region loom large, he'll also be meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping tomorrow. Plus, Ben Cohen — co-founder of Ben and Jerry's — says he's launching a new, Palestinian-themed melon-flavored sorbet after previous attempts were blocked by the firm's parent company Unilever. And, life-saving, 3D-printed equipment is coming to some Syrian hospitals.

Today, President Trump has arrived in South Korea ahead of his meeting with President Xi Jinping at APEC. The two are set to discuss a possible trade deal which could bring the US and China back from the brink of a global trade war. Adam is joined by China correspondent Laura Bicker and Americast host Anthony Zurcher, both in South Korea, to discuss TikTok, tariffs and soybeans, as they analyse how the two countries might finalise a deal. Plus, climate editor Justin Rowlatt joins Adam to explore the role climate change is playing in making extreme weather events worse as Hurricane Melissa continues it's path through the Caribbean. You can join our Newscast online community here: https://bbc.in/newscastdiscordGet in touch with Newscast by emailing newscast@bbc.co.uk or send us a WhatsApp on +44 0330 123 9480.New episodes released every day. If you're in the UK, for more News and Current Affairs podcasts from the BBC, listen on BBC Sounds: https://bbc.in/4guXgXd Newscast brings you daily analysis of the latest political news stories from the BBC. The presenter was Adam Fleming. It was made by Anna Harris with Adriana Urbano and Jem Westgate. The social producer was Joe Wilkinson. The technical producer was Mike Regaard. The assistant editor is Chris Gray. The senior news editor is Sam Bonham.

From the BBC World Service: U.S. President Donald Trump is in South Korea for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum, or APEC. As U.S. tariffs in the region loom large, he'll also be meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping tomorrow. Plus, Ben Cohen — co-founder of Ben and Jerry's — says he's launching a new, Palestinian-themed melon-flavored sorbet after previous attempts were blocked by the firm's parent company Unilever. And, life-saving, 3D-printed equipment is coming to some Syrian hospitals.

SHOW 10-22-25 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR HK 1925 THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT XI. FIRST HOUR 9-915 Colonel McCausland Discusses Postponed Budapest Summit, Gaza Ceasefire Instability, and Pentagon Information Control Jeff McCausland with John Batchelor Colonel McCausland explained the Budapest summit postponement, noting Putin demands Ukrainian surrender before a ceasefire. He considered Tomahawks an escalation of firepower, but not a game-changer, with delivery now on hold. McCausland described the Gaza ceasefire as precarious, lacking discussion or plan for Hamas disarmament, which he views as the necessary "red line" for stability. He criticized the Pentagon's new policy blocking journalists from soliciting unauthorized information as an attempt by Secretary Hegseth to control information flow and increase opacity. 915-930 Colonel McCausland Discusses Postponed Budapest Summit, Gaza Ceasefire Instability, and Pentagon Information Control Jeff McCausland with John Batchelor Colonel McCausland explained the Budapest summit postponement, noting Putin demands Ukrainian surrender before a ceasefire. He considered Tomahawks an escalation of firepower, but not a game-changer, with delivery now on hold. McCausland described the Gaza ceasefire as precarious, lacking discussion or plan for Hamas disarmament, which he views as the necessary "red line" for stability. He criticized the Pentagon's new policy blocking journalists from soliciting unauthorized information as an attempt by Secretary Hegseth to control information flow and increase opacity. 930-945 Steve Yates Discusses Australia-US Alliance Strength and Political Turmoil Affecting APEC Summit Steve Yates with John Batchelor Steve Yates confirmed the Trump-Albanese meeting was a net positive, accelerating AUKUS and securing a rare earth deal that addresses supply access. He noted the political turmoil in Beijing, highlighted by uncertainty over Xi Jinping's APEC attendance. This instability is abnormal and reinforces China's unstable political foundation. Yates suggested this instability should push allies to rely more on the first island chain as a reliable balance. 945-1000 Rick Fisher Reports on China's Reusable Rocket Deluge and US Moon Race Political Pressures Rick Fisher with John Batchelor Rick Fisher reported that China has 27 reusable space launch vehicle projects underway, predicting a "deluge" of cheap space services to compete with SpaceX. He noted that President Trump is alarmed that China may win the second race to the moon. Trump pressured NASA Administrator Duffy to open the Human Landing System competition to Blue Origin, signaling that politics and winning the race are paramount, regardless of competitor viability. China's first reusable booster test could occur before year-end. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 Colonel Newsham Discusses Promising US-Australia Rare Earth Deal and Canberra's Dual Strategy Toward China Grant Newsham with John Batchelor Colonel Grant Newsham discussed the promising US-Australia rare earth deal, noting Australia has vast mining capabilities to provide an alternative to China's dominance. China's threat to use export controls might spur free nations to develop alternative supply chains. Newsham noted Canberra is playing a "neat trick," maintaining a firm defense alliance with the US (AUKUS) while maintaining profitable economic ties with Beijing, reflecting an underlying "softness" toward China. 1015-1030 Colonel Newsham Discusses Promising US-Australia Rare Earth Deal and Canberra's Dual Strategy Toward China Grant Newsham with John Batchelor Colonel Grant Newsham discussed the promising US-Australia rare earth deal, noting Australia has vast mining capabilities to provide an alternative to China's dominance. China's threat to use export controls might spur free nations to develop alternative supply chains. Newsham noted Canberra is playing a "neat trick," maintaining a firm defense alliance with the US (AUKUS) while maintaining profitable economic ties with Beijing, reflecting an underlying "softness" toward China. 1030-1045 China's Property Crisis, Deflation, and Structural Obstacles to Consumption Anne Stevenson-Yang with John Batchelor Anne Stevenson-Yang discussed how the persistent property crater has severely dragged down fixed asset investment. Beijing aims to boost the economy via consumption, but the Chinese system is structurally built to communicate only with producers, not average consumers. Furthermore, the deflationary environment encourages people to delay purchases, waiting for lower prices. She views the Five-Year Plans mainly as an "amazing relic" used internally to motivate the sprawling government bureaucracies. 1045-1100 General Zhang Youxia Allegedly Leads PLA Purges Amid Internal CCP Power Struggle General Blaine Holt with John Batchelor General Blaine Holt reported that the purge of nine flag officers was allegedly executed by General Zhang Youxia, not Xi Jinping. Zhang, a top general, began the purges out of fear of becoming a target himself, indicating an internal "civil war" within the CCP factions opposing Xi. Zhang has secured elite military units loyal to him and the People's Liberation Army (PLA), rather than solely the Party, stabilizing the military amidst the turmoil. Zhang's life is at risk if Xi prevails.THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 Peter Berkowitz Analyzes Precarious Gaza Ceasefire and Deep Internal Political Tensions in Israel Peter Berkowitz with John Batchelor Peter Berkowitz stated the Gaza ceasefire is precarious and phase one is incomplete until all deceased hostages' remains are returned, aligning with Israeli public and governmental sentiment. Hamas may be stalling negotiations to rearm. Berkowitz noted sharp internal tensions in Israel, driven by opposition to Netanyahu, resentment over judicial reform, and economic exhaustion from military service. He finds it unlikely that the peace plan, which requires Hamas disarmament, will be fully realized. 1115-1130 Peter Berkowitz Analyzes Precarious Gaza Ceasefire and Deep Internal Political Tensions in Israel Peter Berkowitz with John Batchelor Peter Berkowitz stated the Gaza ceasefire is precarious and phase one is incomplete until all deceased hostages' remains are returned, aligning with Israeli public and governmental sentiment. Hamas may be stalling negotiations to rearm. Berkowitz noted sharp internal tensions in Israel, driven by opposition to Netanyahu, resentment over judicial reform, and economic exhaustion from military service. He finds it unlikely that the peace plan, which requires Hamas disarmament, will be fully realized. 1130-1145 GOP Voters Found More Moderate on Fiscal Issues and Driven by Cultural Anti-Progressivism, According to New Analysis Ryan Streeter with John Batchelor Ryan Streeter discussed findings showing Republican voters are more moderate than portrayed, especially on entitlement cuts. They prioritize a healthy economy and law and order. Isolationism is not prominent, though they oppose excessive foreign spending. MAGA Republicanism is defined primarily by cultural issues, like anti-progressivism and concern over immigration, often outweighing economic policies like tariffs. Streeter concludes that rank and file voters are not as radical as national politics suggest. 1145-1200 GOP Voters Found More Moderate on Fiscal Issues and Driven by Cultural Anti-Progressivism, According to New Analysis Ryan Streeter with John Batchelor Ryan Streeter discussed findings showing Republican voters are more moderate than portrayed, especially on entitlement cuts. They prioritize a healthy economy and law and order. Isolationism is not prominent, though they oppose excessive foreign spending. MAGA Republicanism is defined primarily by cultural issues, like anti-progressivism and concern over immigration, often outweighing economic policies like tariffs. Streeter concludes that rank and file voters are not as radical as national politics suggest. FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 Simon Constable Reports on Rising Commodity Prices Driven by Data Center Demand and European Political Turmoil Simon Constable with John Batchelor Simon Constable reported significant commodity price increases (copper up 14%, gold up 48%), driven by demand for data centers and AI. He criticized European reluctance to build needed data centers, stressing their necessity for the digital future. Constable noted President Macron fears Marine Le Pen's National Rally due to growing support stemming from concerns over unfettered immigration. He also criticized the UK Labour party's plan to tax professionals like dentists and doctors, predicting they will leave the country. 1215-1230 Simon Constable Reports on Rising Commodity Prices Driven by Data Center Demand and European Political Turmoil Simon Constable with John Batchelor Simon Constable reported significant commodity price increases (copper up 14%, gold up 48%), driven by demand for data centers and AI. He criticized European reluctance to build needed data centers, stressing their necessity for the digital future. Constable noted President Macron fears Marine Le Pen's National Rally due to growing support stemming from concerns over unfettered immigration. He also criticized the UK Labour party's plan to tax professionals like dentists and doctors, predicting they will leave the country. 1230-1245 Bob Zimmerman Criticizes NASA's Artemis Lunar Program as a "Management Disaster" Focused on Beating China Bob Zimmerman with John Batchelor Bob Zimmerman criticized NASA interim administrator Sean Duffy for focusing on SpaceX being "behind schedule," distracting from NASA's own delay of the Artemis mission to 2028 at the earliest. He called the Artemis plan an "unwieldy management disaster" designed haphazardly to give the SLS rocket a mission. The political push to beat China by 2028 creates a dangerous "one-time stunt." Zimmerman argues the private sector (SpaceX) is the real future of US space endeavors. 1245-100 AM Bob Zimmerman Criticizes NASA's Artemis Lunar Program as a "Management Disaster" Focused on Beating China Bob Zimmerman with John Batchelor Bob Zimmerman criticized NASA interim administrator Sean Duffy for focusing on SpaceX being "behind schedule," distracting from NASA's own delay of the Artemis mission to 2028 at the earliest. He called the Artemis plan an "unwieldy management disaster" designed haphazardly to give the SLS rocket a mission. The political push to beat China by 2028 creates a dangerous "one-time stunt." Zimmerman argues the private sector (SpaceX) is the real future of US space endeavors.

Steve Yates Discusses Australia-US Alliance Strength and Political Turmoil Affecting APEC Summit Steve Yates with John Batchelor Steve Yates confirmed the Trump-Albanese meeting was a net positive, accelerating AUKUS and securing a rare earth deal that addresses supply access. He noted the political turmoil in Beijing, highlighted by uncertainty over Xi Jinping's APEC attendance. This instability is abnormal and reinforces China's unstable political foundation. Yates suggested this instability should push allies to rely more on the first island chain as a reliable balance. 1687

Our U.S. Public Policy Strategist Ariana Salvatore unpacks how China's announced rare earth export controls and signals of sweeping U.S. tariffs could impact global supply chains, markets and economic growth.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Public Policy Strategist. Today I'll talk about a development keeping markets and investors on alert: a re-escalation of U.S. China trade tensions. It's Friday, October 17th at 10am in New York. Since April, the U.S. and China have been in what we've been calling a very delicate detente. Remember, President Trump paused the additional reciprocal tariffs after Liberation Day. Since then, we've been consistently skeptical that the pause was durable enough to actually allow the U.S. and China to come up with a full-fledged trade agreement. But now we're equally as skeptical that the current escalation will lead to a material disruption in the bilateral relationship. So, what happened last week? China announced stricter export controls on rare earths, which are really critical for manufacturing everything from electric vehicles to defense equipment and advanced electronics. So, in response, the Trump administration on Friday announced a proposed 100 percent tariff, said to go into effect November 1st across all Chinese exports to the U.S. That date matters because that's around the same time that Presidents Trump and Xi were scheduled to meet at the upcoming APEC Summit in South Korea. When we think about this most recent escalation, it's pretty significant because China accounts for about 70 percent of global rare earth mining, and 90 percent of processing and refining. A lot of countries around the world – the U.S. Japan, Korea, and Germany – all rely heavily on these imports from China. And so potential new export controls mean that every economy may have to start negotiating bilaterally with China to secure supplies, which raises the risk of supply chain disruption across Asia, Europe, and the U.S. Looking ahead, we're thinking about four potential scenarios for how the current U.S.-China trade tensions could play out. The most likely outcome, which is our base case, is a return to the recent status quo following a period of rhetorical escalation and likely a reset of expectations heading into this APEC meeting. That's because we think both the U.S. and China would prefer to maintain the existing equilibrium to an abrupt supply chain decoupling. That equilibrium is effectively chips for rare earths. So, the U.S. receives China's rare earths, and then in return the U.S. exports some of its chips to China. But that equilibrium doesn't necessarily mean that the temporary implementation of trade barriers like higher tariffs or more export controls are off the table. The broader trajectory we think will continue to point toward competitive confrontation, which is a bipartisan strategy that encompasses both these traditional trade tactics as well as unilateral domestic investment – either vis-a-vis direct federal spending, or the government taking more stakes in companies involved in these critical industries. So, think things like the IRA, the CHIPS Act, and other bipartisan pieces of legislation. So, in the near and medium term, expect to see these trade barriers persisting and a bipartisan push toward U.S. industrial policy, as the U.S. attempts to undergo selective de-risking from China. Our base case scenario anticipates further short-term tensions, but ultimately a limited agreement that avoids deep structural changes. We've also thought through some alternate scenarios. So, in one downside case, you could see temporary escalation past November 1st. Both sides could fully implement their proposed policies, but after doing so, come back to the status quo once the economic costs become apparent. A more severe downside scenario involves durable escalation. So, in this case, we would see both countries maintain trade barriers for an extended period. That outcome would see both the U.S. and China decide to change calculus on that equilibrium, so that no longer holds. And in that case, we could see a push toward decoupling and a significant strain on supply chains. Finally, our last scenario reflects a quick de-escalation in which heightened rhetoric actually acts as a catalyst for renewed negotiations and a potential framework agreement that could result in some tariffs, but most likely at lower levels than initially proposed. So, what does this all mean? In the base case, our economists expect China's GDP growth to slow to below 4.5 percent in the second half of 2025, with exports supported by robust non-U.S. shipments. Our equity strategists in this outcome see the volatility actually providing a dip buying opportunity, given that they see a rolling recovery that began earlier this year. However, a more durable escalation could possibly prolong China's deflation and necessitate further policy adjustments. Similarly, that outcome could negate the early cycle rolling recovery thesis here in the U.S. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe [CB]/China have made their move. They are using the shutdown and their latest plan to put pressure on Trump and destroy the economy. Their plan was to shift the economy to China for the great reset. Trump countered the plan. Trump will be releasing the inflation report to counter the Fed plan not to Trump rates. Throughout the all of this gold has held steady, nations are accumulating gold. The [DS] is panicking, the shutdown is not working the way they thought. The people are not on their side. The [DS] is trying to use it so the military,NG and ICE do not get paid and this way the illegals are then not deported and when they push the riots there will be no military and NG. Trump countered the plan, he is paying the military. Trump is testing the judiciary with the indictments of Comey, James and soon Schiff and Bolton. During the shutdown Trump is draining the swamp. A message was sent to the people.   Economy (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");   contacted by other Countries who are extremely angry at this great Trade hostility, which came out of nowhere. Our relationship with China over the past six months has been a very good one, thereby making this move on Trade an even more surprising one. I have always felt that they've been lying in wait, and now, as usual, I have been proven right! There is no way that China should be allowed to hold the World “captive,” but that seems to have been their plan for quite some time, starting with the “Magnets” and, other Elements that they have quietly amassed into somewhat of a Monopoly position, a rather sinister and hostile move, to say the least. But the U.S. has Monopoly positions also, much stronger and more far reaching than China's. I have just not chosen to use them, there was never a reason for me to do so — UNTIL NOW! The letter they sent is many pages long, and details, with great specificity, each and every Element that they want to withhold from other Nations. Things that were routine are no longer routine at all. I have not spoken to President Xi because there was no reason to do so. This was a real surprise, not only to me, but to all the Leaders of the Free World. I was to meet President Xi in two weeks, at APEC, in South Korea, but now there seems to be no reason to do so. The Chinese letters were especially inappropriate in that this was the Day that, after three thousand years of bedlam and fighting, there is PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST. I wonder if that timing was coincidental? Dependent on what China says about the hostile “order” that they have just put out, I will be forced, as President of the United States of America, to financially counter their move. For every Element that they have been able to monopolize, we have two. I never thought it would come to this but perhaps, as with all things, the time has come. Ultimately, though potentially painful, it will be a very good thing, in the end, for the U.S.A. One of the Policies that we are calculating at this moment is a massive increase of Tariffs on Chinese products coming into the United States of America. There are many other countermeasures that are, likewise, under serious consideration. Thank you for your attention to this matter!DONALD J. TRUMP,