On the Ledge - the Ontario Politics Podcast

The OTL gang is assembled! Keith Leslie at CHCH-TV, John Wright SVP Maru Public Opinion, Sabrina Nanji, Publisher and Editor of the Queen's Park Observer and SSN Chief Executive Producer Dave Trafford are around the table.In this episode:Premier Doug Ford tells Mississauga Mayor Bonnie Crombie to stop whining and be a good partner! (At least he didn't tell her to stick to her knitting).Ford goes off on a rant over Crombie's opposition to Queen's Park's plan to eliminate Developer Charges as a means of incentivizing developers to build more housing.Crombie wants to know how municipalities are going to cover the added costs of new infrastructure if the DCs disappear.Ford doesn't have an answer.John Wright says the Ford government has taken a turn towards autocracy and that's good news for the Liberals.OTL will be taking a break over the Christmas recess. We'll be back around the table in the New Year!BTW, if you enjoy On the Ledge, you'll probably enjoy our daily SSN podcast - NOW and NEXT with Dave Trafford and Erin Trafford.Support Now and Next! For $10 a month, you can subscribe to our Exclusive Supercast feed for access to Now and Next EXTRA with Dave Trafford on Saturdays and Sundays - including the full length interviews featured on The Daily Brief, early access to Now & Next episodes, AMAs and our message board.You're just a few clicks away. Start here: nowandnext.supercast.com

OTL SHOW NOTESThe OTL gang is assembled! Keith Leslie at CHCH-TV, John Wright SVP Maru Public Opinion, Sabrina Nanji, Publisher and Editor of the Queen's Park Observer and SSN Chief Executive Producer Dave Trafford are around the table.In this episode:Why do we even listen to Bonnie Lysyk? Sure, the annual Auditor General's report makes for great headlines. So, what?John Wright says the AG report is nothing better than clickbait.Toronto Star Investigative reporter Kevin Donovan has had more effect on holding governments accountable than all of Lysyk's annual reports combined!Doug Ford says he won't use the Notwithstanding Clause to overrule a court decision striking down Bill 124. (He also said he wouldn't touch the Greenbelt.)And, what does it say about the NDP when they're on the verge of acclaiming the Official Leader of the Opposition? BTW, if you enjoy On the Ledge, you'll probably enjoy our daily SSN podcast - NOW and NEXT with Dave Trafford and Erin Trafford.Support Now and Next! For $10 a month, you can subscribe to our Exclusive Supercast feed for access to Now and Next EXTRA with Dave Trafford on Saturdays and Sundays - including the full length interviews featured on The Daily Brief, early access to Now & Next episodes, AMAs and our message board.You're just a few clicks away. Start here: www.nowandnext.supercast.com

The OTL gang is assembled! Keith Leslie at CHCH-TV, John Wright SVP Maru Public Opinion, Sabrina Nanji, Publisher and Editor of the Queen's Park Observer and SSN Chief Executive Producer Dave Trafford are around the table.In this episode:Ontario's premier has been AWOL this past week, skipping out on Question Period, failing to attend the Order of Ontario ceremony and ghosted Ottawa's newly elected Mayor Mark Suttcliffe.Could the average Ontarian pick the Health Minister out of a line-up? Sylvia Jones is proving to be a complete failure while the hospital and healthcare system is in crisis. Jones has the nerve to suggest this second term government inherited this mess.And the hits just keep coming. The Auditor's Report, as Sabrina notes, the Annual Government Phonebook of Fail is set for release in the next couple of weeks.BTW, if you enjoy On the Ledge, you'll probably enjoy our daily SSN podcast - NOW and NEXT with Dave Trafford and Erin Trafford.Support Now and Next! For $10 a month, you can subscribe to our Exclusive Supercast feed for access to Now and Next EXTRA with Dave Trafford on Saturdays and Sundays - including the full length interviews featured on The Daily Brief, early access to Now & Next episodes, AMAs and our message board.You're just a few clicks away. Start here: nowandnext.supercast.com

The OTL gang is assembled! Keith Leslie at CHCH-TV, John Wright SVP Maru Public Opinion, Sabrina Nanji, Publisher and Editor of the Queen's Park Observer and SSN Chief Executive Producer Dave Trafford are around the table.In this episode:CUPE and the province go down to the wire hammering out a contract for support workers.If Ford Nation is all about taking care of the Children, where are they on the overwhelmed paediatric wards?The Health Minister has the gall to think we'll believe she had a plan all along to deal with the pressures.And the Children and Social Services Minister is too busy to talk to us about the latest report from the Daily Bread Food Bank suggesting we are in in a deep food security crisis.BTW, if you enjoy On the Ledge, you'll probably enjoy our daily SSN podcast - NOW and NEXT with Dave Trafford and Erin Trafford.Support Now and Next! For $10 a month, you can subscribe to our Exclusive Supercast feed for access to Now and Next EXTRA with Dave Trafford on Saturdays and Sundays - including the full length interviews featured on The Daily Brief, early access to Now & Next episodes, AMAs and our message board.You're just a few clicks away. Start here: nowandnext.supercast.com

The OTL gang is assembled! Keith Leslie at CHCH-TV, John Wright SVP Maru Public Opinion, Sabrina Nanji, Publisher and Editor of the Queen's Park Observer and SSN Chief Executive Producer Dave Trafford are around the table.In this episode:It's Remembrance Day in Canada - November 11th.We take time to reflect on the service and sacrifice of our military and their families.AND, we are featuring an archived presentation of Embedded in Kandahar - a radio documentary Dave Trafford produced with the late Christie Blatchford. The show is based on Christie's Governor General Award winning book, Fifteen Days: Stories of Bravery, Friendship, Life and Death from Inside the New Canadian Army.It's posted in our SSN anchor show Now and Next.You can LISTEN HERE https://now-and-next.sounder.fm/episode/special-embedded-in-kandaharBTW, if you enjoy On the Ledge, you'll probably enjoy our daily SSN podcast - NOW and NEXT with Dave Trafford and Erin Trafford.Support Now and Next! For $10 a month, you can subscribe to our Exclusive Supercast feed for access to Now and Next EXTRA with Dave Trafford on Saturdays and Sundays - including the full length interviews featured on The Daily Brief, early access to Now & Next episodes, AMAs and our message board.You're just a few clicks away. Start here: nowandnext.supercast.com

The OTL gang is assembled! Keith Leslie at CHCH-TV, John Wright SVP Maru Public Opinion, Sabrina Nanji, Publisher and Editor of the Queen's Park Observer and SSN Chief Executive Producer Dave Trafford are around the table.In this episode:Ford Nation may have won the battle, forcing a contract on education workers but what kind of war has begun?Has Ontario's use of the Notwithstanding Clause pushed Canada towards a constitutional crisis?This is the third time the Ford government has used the Notwithstanding clause to push legislation. In this case, it's clearly contrary to the Charter.What's the next step? More strikes? A general strike? The feds invoking the Disallowance clause. BTW, if you enjoy On the Ledge, you'll probably enjoy our daily SSN podcast - NOW and NEXT with Dave Trafford and Erin Trafford.Support Now and Next! For $10 a month, you can subscribe to our Exclusive Supercast feed for access to Now and Next EXTRA with Dave Trafford on Saturdays and Sundays - including the full length interviews featured on The Daily Brief, early access to Now & Next episodes, AMAs and our message board.You're just a few clicks away. Start here: nowandnext.supercast.com

The OTL gang is assembled! Keith Leslie at CHCH-TV, John Wright SVP Maru Public Opinion, Sabrina Nanji, Publisher and Editor of the Queen's Park Observer and SSN Chief Executive Producer Dave Trafford are around the table.In this episode:Horwath, Del Duca, Brown, Tory and Crombie are likely to help Ford Nation move quickly on the affordable housing file.The province has a surplus! Good for taxpayers. Bad for Ford.What is Ford thinking by refusing to testify at the federal inquiry in the use of the Emergencies Act?We need to issue a BOLO for the Health Minister! Where is she?BTW, if you enjoy On the Ledge, you'll probably enjoy our daily SSN podcast - NOW and NEXT with Dave Trafford and Erin Trafford.Support Now and Next! For $10 a month, you can subscribe to our Exclusive Supercast feed for access to Now and Next EXTRA with Dave Trafford on Saturdays and Sundays - including the full length interviews featured on The Daily Brief, early access to Now & Next episodes, AMAs and our message board.You're just a few clicks away. Start here: nowandnext.supercast.com

The OTL gang is assembled! Keith Leslie at CHCH-TV, John Wright SVP Maru Public Opinion, Sabrina Nanji, Publisher and Editor of the Queen's Park Observer and SSN Chief Executive Producer Dave Trafford are around the table.In this episode:The Ford government is prepared to cough up $365 million to parents of school kids while telling education workers the government doesn't have enough money to meet contract demands.So much for not negotiating in the media. Education Minister Stephen Lecce tells Newstalk 1010, the CUPE demands amount to a nearly 50% increase.Will the threat of strikes lead to a settlement? Will it lead to declaring education workers and essential service?Why isn't Doug Ford a witness at the inquiry into the use of the Emergency Measures Act to deal with convoy occupation?And, Ford Nation will kick off its aggressive plan to build new homes in the province.BTW, if you enjoy On the Ledge, you'll probably enjoy our daily SSN podcast - NOW and NEXT with Dave Trafford and Erin Trafford.Support Now and Next! For $10 a month, you can subscribe to our Exclusive Supercast feed for access to Now and Next EXTRA with Dave Trafford on Saturdays and Sundays - including the full length interviews featured on The Daily Brief, early access to Now & Next episodes, AMAs and our message board.You're just a few clicks away. Start here: nowandnext.supercast.com

The OTL gang is assembled! Keith Leslie at CHCH-TV, John Wright SVP Maru Public Opinion and SSN Chief Executive Producer Dave Trafford are around the table. In this episode: Is there room for optimism in the education contract talks? Is it time to declare education an essential service? John Wright admits he's not a Mathlete! Where is the Health Minister? Latest numbers say hospital wait times are up across the province.. Newsrooms are dropping the ball when it comes to reporting on Queen's Park! Does Alberta Premier Danielle Smith get a mulligan for referring to the unvaccinated as the “most discriminate against group” in her lifetime? BTW, if you enjoy On the Ledge, you'll probably enjoy our daily SSN podcast - NOW and NEXT with Dave Trafford and Erin Trafford. Support Now and Next! For $10 a month, you can subscribe to our Exclusive Supercast feed for access to Now and Next EXTRA with Dave Trafford on Saturdays and Sundays - including the full length interviews featured on The Daily Brief, early access to Now & Next episodes, AMAs and our message board. You're just a few clicks away. Start here: nowandnext.supercast.com

The OTL gang is assembled! Keith Leslie at CHCH-TV, John Wright SVP Maru Public Opinion and SSN Chief Executive Producer Dave Trafford are around the table. In this episode: Quebec re-elects Legault and the UCP in Alberta chooses Danielle Smith to succeed Jason Kenney and the province's premier designate. It puts pressure on federal-provincial relations. Is Trudeau up to the task? An Angus Reid survey says Ontarians “overwhelmingly” say Ford Nation is mishandling the healthcare, LTC, and housing files four months into the PC's second mandate. More than 20% of municipal election races are over. A record number of candidates have been acclaimed ahead of the October 24th election day. BTW, if you enjoy On the Ledge, you'll probably enjoy our daily SSN podcast - NOW and NEXT with Dave Trafford and Erin Trafford. Support Now and Next! For $10 a month, you can subscribe to our Exclusive Supercast feed for access to the full episode of The Daily Brief, early access to Now & Next episodes, AMAs and our message board. You're just a few clicks away. Start here: nowandnext.supercast.com

The OTL gang is assembled! Keith Leslie at CHCH-TV, John Wright SVP Maru Public Opinion and SSN Chief Executive Producer Dave Trafford are around the table. In this episode: We mark the second annual Day for Truth and Reconciliation, and the truth is dozens of First Nations communities in Ontario remain under boil-water orders. We hear from Sol Mamakwa, MPP for the riding of Kiiwetinoog in Northwestern Ontario. One of the communities in his riding has been under a boil-water order for 28 years! Keith and John get into a spirited debate over claims that nuclear energy is “green” energy. And the Eglinton Cock-up…er Crosstown is a P3 failure. The P3 was supposed to deliver on time and on budget. Dave says the Crosstown fiasco is going to mean infrastructure will only cost more and take even longer to complete in the future.  BTW, if you enjoy On the Ledge, you'll probably enjoy our daily SSN podcast - NOW and NEXT with Dave Trafford and Erin Trafford. Support Now and Next! For $10 a month, you can subscribe to our Exclusive Supercast feed for access to the full episode of The Daily Brief, early access to Now & Next episodes, AMAs and our message board. You're just a few clicks away. Start here: nowandnext.supercast.com

The OTL gang is assembled! Sabrina Nanji from the Queen's Park Observer, Keith Leslie at CHCH-TV, John Wright SVP Maru Public Opinion and SSN Chief Executive Producer Dave Trafford are around the table. In this episode: It's not debatable but we talk to Keith from his vantage point in Nova Scotia on his preparation plans as Fione bears down on NS, PEI and NL. The latest Angus Reid survey suggests Doug Ford's approval rating has dipped four-percentage points settling in around 41%. John Wright says Ford Nation has nothing to worry about. Keith is surprised it isn't lower considering the provinces new legislation to move people from acute care beds to LTC homes, even if it's 70km away. And labour issues are percolating in the background: teachers, nurses, school bus drivers are all calling for more money. Can the government afford public sector upheaval in the wake of pandemic shut downs and crushing pressures on frontline workers? The cost of living and the cost of poverty continues to rise. Is anyone paying attention at Queen's Park? BTW, if you enjoy On the Ledge, you'll probably enjoy our daily SSN podcast - NOW and NEXT with Dave Trafford and Erin Trafford. Support Now and Next! For $10 a month, you can subscribe to our Exclusive Supercast feed for access to the full episode of The Daily Brief, early access to Now & Next episodes, AMAs and our message board. You're just a few clicks away. Start here: nowandnext.supercast.com

The OTL gang is assembled! Sabrina Nanji from the Queen's Park Observer, Keith Leslie at CHCH-TV, John Wright SVP Maru Public Opinion and SSN Chief Executive Producer Dave Trafford are around the table. In this episode: MPP's barely got back to business at Queen's Park and the Ford government has adjourned the legislature until AFTER municipal elections on October 24th. The “More Beds, Better Care Act" is a complete misnomer and does nothing to solve the long term problems in long term care. Barrie Mayor, Jeff Lehman says he's considering a bid for the Ontario Liberal leadership (still a couple of years out). The "Strong Mayor" model is going put pressure on voters to really conser their choices come election day. And as promised, here is information on how you can support SSN's daily podcast - NOW and NEXT with Dave Trafford and Erin Trafford. Support Now and Next! Subscribe to our Exclusive Supercast feed for access to AMAs, our message board and early access to Now & Next episodes. nowandnext.supercast.com

Friday, September 9, 2022 is the first full day of the Caroline Era. King Charles lll arrived at Buckinham Palace midday, meeting and greeting some of the thousands of people who are holding vigil outside the palace to pay tribute to the new king and his mother, the late Queen Elizabeth ll. Charles delivered his first public speech as the monarch at 6pm in the UK. He acknowledged the sacrifice and service his mother offered during her reign and made the same commitment. While he admitted he would have to step away from his pet projects and causes, it was interesting to note that he charged the newly "created" Prince and Princess of Wales (William and Kate) with the responsibility to help those who live on the margins of society. There is plenty of commentary suggesting Elizabeth set a bar to high for Charles to match. But unlike his mother, Charles had the opportunity to learn how to be king from Great Britain's longest serving monarch. Perhaps we underestimate the new king.

We've got a newish cabinet at Queen's Park. It's version 1.5 - not quite 2.0 considering how few changes we see around the table. One exception is the announcement of Michael Ford as Minister of Citizenship and Multiculturalism. The On The Ledge panel joins this edition of The Daily Brief to talk what's next and what to expect in the next Ford mandate.

All this talk about a Liberal-NDP merger in Ontario is utter nonsense. Why would the NDP waste any energy or time "merging" with the leaderless Liberals, when they're well positioned to stage a hostile takeover.  A re-energized NDP could easily render the Liberals irrelevant before the 2026 campaign.  Sabrina Nanji at the Queen's Park Observer quotes a pair of party insiders on their thoughts about the party's future. " — JONATHAN SCOTT, longtime operative who ran runner-up MICHAEL COTEAU's 2020 leadership bid: “[2022] could be an extinction-level event for the party, if the party doesn't learn the lessons voters are telling us. It's time to modernize, throw the doors wide open and build a new party from the ground up. It's time to be respectful and not talk down to people, especially in rural Ontario, and drop any attitude that we know best.” — KELLY FOOTE, veteran organizer and community activist: “The party's problems can't be fixed by the same people who presided over them.” Both great points. And both bits of advice should have been acted on 4 years ago.   

The sleepiest of campaigns turned out to be one for the history books on a number of counts.  First Doug Ford won a second majority in Ontario. Second, he won more seats in this election than he did in 2018. Third, he won more of the popular vote this time around than he did in 2018. Fourth, both main Opposition leaders called it quits after the results were obvious. Fifth, the Liberals failed, for the second time in a row, to gain official party status.

Bob Reid at Broadway Strategy and Communications spent time advising Mike Harris when he sat in the Premier's chair in Ontario. What's it like for the leaders and the staffers on Election Day. The campaign is over. It's up to us to mark our ballots.

The Toronto Star says Doug Ford broke their Fact Checker because, for the most part the far and few between statements he made between May 25 and May 29 stated uncheckable facts. To me, that means he's spent the bulk of what little time he's spent speaking publicly uttering meaningless slogans. On average, he's spending 5 minutes a day speaking publicly in the final stretch of the campaign.  On the other hand, a guy like Mark Towhey hosts Ontario VOTES and talks campaign stuff for four hours a night! And even he makes it lively and interesting!

Sabrina Nanji just gets on a roll over Steven Del Duca's prospects of winning his seat in Vaughan-Woodbridge when she falls off the internet! No injuries reported. But it speaks to the shift in media coverage at Queen's Park and on the campaign away from in-person scrums in favour of remote video links and a one-question-one-followup format.

Before we get to the poll, we begin this edition of the Writ Race with a Friday FART JOKE! That's what the Ontario election campaign has come to with less than a week to go before Election Day on June 2.  The Toronto Star's got its hands on ANOTHER set of leaked polling numbers - this time from the NDP. Surprise, surprise! The NDP's confidential, internal memo says they've got the "wind at their back"! More likely that leader Horwath has figurative knives at her back. And the latest from Angus Reid shows "NOT SURE" is running second to Doug Ford and the PCs on some key issues. Yes, NOT SURE polls ahead of Horwath, Del Duca and Schreiner when those surveyed are asked which party is best suited to create new jobs!

We are a week away from counting the final ballot tally that will determine who will sit in the Premier's Office in Ontario.  And here's where we stand. Andrea Horwath is running to keep her job. Steven Del Duca is running to win his seat. And Doug Ford is sleep walking his way towards another majority. Will the final week make any difference in the campaign? Probably not. All but one number has stayed steady in most of the polling since the Leaders' Debate. The one that's shifted smartly is the number of voters who think Andrea Horwath would be the best choice as Premier of Ontario. According to the latest Nanos' numbers, the NDP leader has faded to 17.5%. Her numbers continue to dip as Del Duca and Ford make gains.

All agree Doug Ford's below-the-radar approach to this election campaign is working for him. All indications are, he'd have to stumble hard to be reduced to a minority government. But does the peek-a-boo strategy hurt when several communities were hit by a deadly and devastating spring storm? Meanwhile, have the Liberals admitted they can't win? Internal party polling was leaked to Rob Benzie at the Toronto Star, suggesting the Liberals believe they can hold the PCs to a minority if they can win tight fights against the NDP.

Polling and seat projection numbers seem to be fluid, with less than 2 weeks to go before Election Day in Ontario. In three separate stories over the Victoria Day weekend, the Toronto Star says the Liberals could hold Ford Nation to a minority, the NDP is gaining at the expense of the Liberals, and the Liberals out poll the NDP but would finish third. So, we turn to John Wright, SVP at Maru Public Opinion to get some clarity on what's going on. He expects voting intentions firmed up while friends and families gather over the long holiday weekend.

It seems the United Conservative Party of Alberta's not all that united. Jason Kenney's spectacular fall from grace suggests the "big tent" approach is an unmitigated failure for conservatives in Alberta. And this is in Canada's conservative heartland! You've got to think Kenney's meagre 51.4% support in this week's leadership review reflects a similar schism in the federal ranks. Today on the WRIT RACE, we're joined by Bob Reid, Principal at Broadway Strategy and Communications and Bob Richardson, Senior Counsel at National Public Relations to read the entrails and give us a sense of what this means for the conservative movement across Canada.

Local candidates from four of the six provincial ridings in Scarborough gathered on May 18th to highlight the social and economic issues that are unique to this community. Official census numbers put the population at nearly 630 thousand, but local agencies and businesses estimate the real popluation is more than 800 thousand.  Public transit, affordable housing and healthcare top the list of issues. But poverty and the need for social assistance and support is the real issue. More than one in ten adults in Scarborough rely on a government welfare cheque or a disablity pension to live in one of the most expensive cities in Canada. I hosted and moderated the townhall discussion organized by the Scarborough Community Renewal Organization, Rotary in Scarborough and the Scarborough Business Association. Mitzie Hunter is a candidate for the Ontario Liberal Party in the riding of Scarborough Guildwood. Doly Begum is the NDP candidate in Scarborough Southwest. Priyan de Silva represents the Green Party in Scarborough Rouge-Park and Rane Vega is the New Blue Party of Ontario candidate in the riding of Scarborough-Agincourt. 

More than one in ten adults living in Scarborough Ontario, survive month to month on a welfare cheque or the Ontario Disability Support Program. That's estimated to be close to 60,000 people in Canada's largest urban centre. In and of itself, that's a good sized city! For the first time during this election camapaign, Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner cited the cost of poverty in Ontario. It's a $33 billion dollar cost! It would rank among the most expensive line items in the provincial budget. With all the discussion around affordability, how can we afford to carry that cost?

The Ontario Leaders' Debate did little to change much in the campaign except reinforce expectations. First, the format was a complete failure. Thanks to the media consortium, leaders' debates have been reduced to a complete waste of time. They do nothing to inform voters or the campaign. Because of that, Doug Ford didn't have to do much to do well. And he excelled at doing the least he could do. Mike Schreiner managed to punch above his weight - speed bagging Ford on a couple of occassions. He didn't do much damage but asserted himself as the leader who had a firm grasp on his files and the pulse in the province. Steven Del Duca got marks for exceeding expectations. But let's be real - he barely had to raise his foot off the ground to clear that bar.  And Andrea Horwath seemed to be running for Leader of the Opposition when she needs to be gunning for the big chair if she wants to keep her job as NDP Leader. The needles didn't change much, if at all but the knives are out already. Sabrina Nanji at the Queen's Park Observer says Horwath's lacklustre performance only lit a fire under the 901 movement. (NDP'ers ready to call for her resignation as soon as the polls close on June 2nd). Sabrina also teased a story she's working on that suggests the Liberals may be in the market for a new leader sooner than later. She's been in Del Duca's riding, talking to would-be voters and after a day of canvassing could only find a single person who KNEW Del Duca's name but wouldn't commit to voting for him.    

Had the chance to join Mark Twohey this past Friday on his nightly radio show - Ontario Votes - on Newstalk 1010. Trevor Mayoh and I were part of the Week in Review Roundtable.  

Bet you didn't know that 16% of Scarborough's popluation relies on the Ontario Disability Support Program or an Ontario Works cheque every month. It's the highest level of "working poverty" in Canada. Scarborough is often neglected, if not ignore outright, when it comes to speaking truth to the politically powerful. In this episode, we talk to David Hardy, President of Hardy, Stevenson and Associates. He, along with members of the Scarborough Community Renewal Organization are attempting to catch the attention of all the major parties in this provincial campaign. It's long over due for Queen's Park to pay attention to the unique needs of the more than 600 thousand residents of Scarborough.

Pierre Poilievre may well be an unintended secret weapon for Ford Nation. National Post columnist Kelly McParland is of the opinion that "Pierre Poilievre is too big a risk to lead the Conservatives" McParland calls Poilievre's attack on Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem "reckless and dangerous". You might even call it the stuff of unhinged conspiracy theories. What a contrast between the CPC wannabe PM and Doug Ford, the wannabe re-elected premier of Ontario. Dull Doug's approach to the provincial campaign is working. He appears to be on track to lead another majority government. No drama. No meme material...so far. Campaign ain't over. But Ford's team has managed to plot a safe and steady track for Ontario PC leader. They've avoided any accusation of guilt by association with Poilievre. He's proving he can appeal to the conservative "core" and still win the general election. On the other hand, McParland says, "There is an imperiousness and inflexibility in (Poilievre's) performances that bodes poorly for someone who would need to bring a divided party together, and then do the same for a divided country."

It's as if they've taken a few laps to get their legs and jockey for positioning and now the provincial parties in Ontario are preparing for the final lap bell to ring.  The party leaders are all in debate prep mode and the dead gallop for the final two weeks leading up to Election Day on June 2nd. So far, Doug Ford's run a quiet campaign with fewer media avails than the other leaders and fewer days shaking hands and kissing babies. And all indications suggest that's working. Ontario's okay with DULL.  The oppo parties will have to change that narrative if they hope to make any gains on Ford Nation.

Doug Ford was, well, Git 'er Done Doug, running to stay out of his own way. Andrea Horwath was running to be Leader of the Opposition. Steven Del Duca was running to be Premier. And everyone was wishing Mike Schreiner was the Premier. That pretty much sums up the first provincial Leaders' Debate in North Bay on Tuesday night.

It's the Seinfeld election in Ontario. A campaign about NUTHIN'! There is no urgency, no call for change, no sense that any of the major parties speaks for Ontarians who are facing historic inflation rates at the pumps and in the grocery stores. COVID isn't an "issue" but the pandemic fatigue may well be playing into the lack of interest among voters. If this keeps up, Doug Ford sleep walks back into the Premier's Office.

Not sure what happened in the party war rooms in the past few days, but all four major parties have committed to increasing the Ontario Disability Support Program. The increases would range from about $60 to nearly $1200 a month. @CityCynthia joins the show to give her read of why this issue has spiked to the top of the political priority list at Queen's Park.

Media, whether it be defined as conventional, traditional, terrestrial, digital, or social, has evolved at a breathtaking pacing over the past few years. And that evolution has forced or prompted new habits and behaviours among media and news consumers. In years past, media would have been viewed as a primary source to inform voters during an election campaign. But in 2022, the consumption behaviour says as much or more about the consumer than the content may say about a political platform. In this episode of The Writ Race, Sussex Strategy Group VP Colleen Ryan weighs in on the effects these new behaviours are having on a campaign.

If Andrea Horwath were paying attention, she would commit to reinstating the licence plate fees to pay for her dental care plan. That $120 per plate per year, 10 bucks a month! would be enough to pay for 5 years of that plan at $360 million per annum! That would be an easy relatable sell. But the Writ Race crew says neither oppo party is prepared to roll back Doug Ford's $1.8 billion gift to voters.

Day one of the election campaign in Ontario was distracted by the abortion debate. Two weeks ago, the Liberals made headlines promising to ban handguns across the province. Neither issue is relevant in this campaign. But they consume editorial oxygen because newsrooms are lazy. They don't want to explore the issues that are top of mind for families and businesses across the province. They simultaneously flash a shiny distraction then follow it! It's worth noting, the latest polling from Nik Nanos suggests Healthcare is the number one concern for Ontarians as we head for the polls on June 2. And its followed by a litany of affordability issues. Those issues are always tops in the list. That is the perennial call for change that is routinely ignored by media and political parties.  

The provincial legislature was dissolved at 4pm on May3. That makes today the first full day of campaigning in Ontario. As it stands, this is Doug Ford's election to lose. It's also a last stand for Andrea Horwath. And survey says most voters don't who is standing as the leader of the Liberals. Affordability is THE ISSUE but what does that mean among the major parties?

The Ontario Progressive Conservatives were already at an advantage among decided voters prior to Budget Day. Now, Doug Ford and his team will run on the fiscal plan presented this past Thursday. The legislature will not sit Monday or Tuesday, meaning no vote on the budget before the Lt. Governor officially dissolves the legislature on Wednesday and officially sends Ontarians to the polls June 2nd. Most of what's in the budget has already been announced or leaked. But is it possible that what's NOT in the budget will be the backbone of debate during this campaign. The opposition are pointing to a litany of promises made in 2018 the Tories failed to keep or simply bailed out on.

Is Doug Ford really buying your vote?  Have the Liberals already lost if they think a handgun ban in Ontario is going to put them over the top on June 2nd. Polls consistently showing the Liberals a solid second choice among Ontario voters. Should Andrea Horwath just riff off Kathleen Wynne's 2018 script and admit now, "The NDP has no chance of forming a government."?

The On The Ledge roundtable crew discusses Kathleen Wynne's final speech in the Ontario legislature, her legacy as the MPP for Don Valley West and as premier of the province between 2013 and 2018.

Not only is the Ford government spending at a faster rate than the previous Liberal government, according to the Fraser Institute, the PCs are lining voters' pockets with cash. That includes dropping licence plate fees, no more tolls on highways 412 and 418, and a promise to cut taxes at the gas pumps in July. But is it enough to hang onto a majorit at Queen's Park. John Wright's polling at Maru Public Opinion suggests the cost of living - particularly at the grocery store - is going to play a major role in this election campaign.

Masks are no longer mandatory in most public spaces in Ontario. And a week into it, some places are either no masks or all masks. I was in a couple of auto dealerships this week and nearly NO ONE wore a mask (I did). Then earlier today, nearly EVERYONE was masked in the local grocery store. Today on the podcast we kick around the latest in Ontario politics. From star candidates to the childcare plan, and who's the bigger spender - Justin Trudeau or Doug Ford?  

The latest numbers from Angus Reid suggest Ontario Premier Doug Ford's approval rating has jumped 13 points in the past month or so. He's riding in the low 40s and he's out performing the Ontario PC party, which, if an election were held today, would likely hold onto it's majority at Queen's Park.

This week, the On The Ledge crew marks the second anniversary of the COVID-19 pandemic noting some school boards intend to extend the mask mandate for students. It's also two years and a few days since Steven Del Duca became the Liberal leader in Ontario and this week marks the fourth anniversary of Doug Ford's ascendancy to the PC leadership. Just so happens to be the same week Patrick Brown and CTV News settled an $8 million dollar lawsuit. Brown alledged CTV defamed him by inaccurately reporting he was involved in inappropriate sexual relationships with two women. The scandal caused Brown to lose his job as leader of the Ontario Progressive Conservatives. CTV issued a statement reading in part: “On Jan. 24, 2018, four months before a provincial election, CTV broadcast a segment concerning Patrick Brown. Key details provided to CTV for the story were factually incorrect and required correction,...CTV National News regrets including those details in the story and any harm this may have caused to Mr. Brown.”

Barrie Mayor Jeff Lehman has announced he will not seek re-election in the fall. Instead, he is expected to land the Liberal nomination in the riding of Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte and challenge the incumbent Doug Downey, who is the Attorney General in Doug Ford's government. We also talk about Health Minister Christine Elliott's decision not to run for re-election in June.

The calendar says we're ten months from Christmas but the gift giving season is already upon us in Ontario. The Ford government is already trotting out pre-budget trinkets aimed at helping folks cope with the increased cost of living. That includes giving up an estimated $1 billion dollars in annual revenue by cancelling annual licence plate fees. That amounts to less than 33 cents a day. Not even enough for you to buy a coffee at Timmie's.

The Ontario legislature is set to get back to business next week following a 2 month recess. And there's no shortage of STUFF to get at today. Keith Leslie, John Wright and Sabrina Nanji from the Queen's Park Observer join me to review the latest in the Ottawa Occupation and the use of the Emergencies Act. How will that shape the ballot question for Doug Ford as we we head towards the June election here in Ontario.

Here's an OTL Bonus episode for you!  This is from today's (Feb 11, 2022) edition of The Daily Brief. OTL Contributor, Founder and Editor of the Queen's Park Observer, Sabrina Nanji joins us. Get-tough plans at Queen's Park are great but they're still just talk unless the OPP and local police forces are prepared to enforce the measures. Cutting off fuel and funding for the blockaders is a long game that might get results in weeks(?) The need for action is immediate. The border crossings need to be open now. The Ottawa occupation needs to end now. Police attempts to avoid violence to date seem to have made it more likely this won't end quietly.