Real Vision Presents...

The Institute of Supply Management's services gauge sank to its lowest level in two years, mortgage demand declined despite falling rates, and the housing rental market cooled markedly, as evidence of economic slowdown accumulates. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, as revealed by the minutes to the June 14-15 FOMC meeting, remains “highly attentive” to inflation risks. “The market is still in a process of pricing in or pricing out incremental tightening, as if there's a spectrum of Fed activity,” explained Darius Dale in his daily note this morning. “But the Fed is waiting to achieve its signal before it does something different.” The Federal Reserve, according to Darius, is operating right now under a “singular” mandate, and that is to get inflation expectations re-anchored to its long-term 2% target. Darius, the founder of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision's Maggie Lake to talk about whether and when the Fed will respond to data other than inflation. We also get a sneak peak at Raoul Pal's and Sam Bankman-Fried's discussion about what's happening in crypto and beyond these days. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3akrlLq. Catch Raoul's conversation with SBF on Friday. And be sure to catch Raoul's conversation with SBF on Friday. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Commodity prices are collapsing, the U.S. dollar is soaring, and the yield curve has inverted again: This is not an auspicious combination. Nor is the fact that a Bloomberg Economics model is now indicating a 38% chance of a recession in the next year. Real Vision's Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to talk about recent price action in the commodities market and the longer-term supply-demand story for oil and gas – highlighted by a look-in at Tony's recent conversation with the infamous Doomberg about the complexities of hydrocarbons and their everyday use. Andreas and Tony also discuss the current condition of the global economy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3OGZ1ls. Watch the full interview with Doomberg and Tony Greer here: https://rvtv.io/3yh8toE. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Realtor Steve Saretsky is the author of one of Vancouver's most popular real estate blogs. Steve joins Harry Melandri to talk about everything to do with Canada's housing market. He's bearish because mortgage rates are rising rapidly while consumer debt levels are already very high. Vancouver, Toronto, and other major Canadian markets have been red-hot for years. But people in those markets are now highly leveraged. Steve sorts through the implications and forecasts what's next for housing in Canada. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Jason Buck's story is wildly fascinating. When he was 19, he turned $2,000 into $100,000 simply by investing in tech stocks. A few years later, he was worth roughly $5 million. But he lost it all during the Global Financial Crisis, and he had to move in with his sister. It's a wildly fascinating story, full of lessons about surviving, battling through adversity, and succeeding. Above all, as Jason shares with Maggie Lake, is to be always willing to learn. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The major U.S. equity indexes edged into positive territory after opening in the red, even as a measure of U.S. manufacturing activity fell to 53 in June from 56.1 in May, a two-year low, and the latest update to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow gauge came in at negative 2.1% on an annualized basis. Not only is a U.S. recession more likely than a soft landing; we may already be in one. “I'm keeping an open mind, and if we do have a recession it will produce an even more powerful rally, as bull markets are born out of recessions," says Mark Ritchie II. Ritchie II, managing partner and chief investment officer of RTM Capital Advisors, joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington to talk about financial markets, the global economy, and capital preservation. We also hear from Mark Minervini about diversified portfolios in a bear market versus a bull market. And we drop in on an exclusive interview between Ash and CEO Mark Lamb about CoinFLEX's struggle for survival amid the crypto downturn. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3AeGKaR. Watch the full conversation featuring Mark Minervini, Jared Dillian, and Mark Ritchie II here: https://rvtv.io/3OAxAcR. Watch Ash's interview with Mark Lamb here: https://rvtv.io/3yw0ghH. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Stocks are sliding and bonds are rallying, as investors react to accumulating evidence that inflation will persist even though the economy is slowing down. There's a word for that kind of scenario: stagflation. “The Fed is facing one of the worst predicaments of its existence,” tweeted Tavi Costa. “The US economy simply cannot handle the Fed's continued monetary tightening." Costa, a partner and portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington to talk about the confluence of three macro extremes. We also hear from Hari Krishnan about how there may not be a solution for the Federal Reserve's dilemma. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3AklJeO. Watch the full conversation featuring Hari Krishnan and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3QUWOnVhttps://rvtv.io/3xYSJG. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. gross domestic product contracted by 1.6% on an annualized basis during the first quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis's final estimate, as consumer spending was weaker than originally forecast. The sense we're heading for recession was heightened when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said today at a European Central Bank forum that policymakers won't let the economy slip into a "higher inflation regime" even if it means raising interest rates to levels that put growth at risk. He maintains U.S. household finances remain strong. “The Fed needs you to capitulate on summer travel in order for inflation to get under control,” says 42 Macro founder and CEO Darius Dale. Darius joins Real Vision's Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about receding inflation fear and rising recession risk. We also hear from Francis Gannon about how higher interest rates are driving a shift in market focus. And we share a segment from today's Crypto Unwrapped episode on continuing upheaval in the crypto market. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Ntyqa7. Watch the full conversation featuring Francis Gannon here: https://rvtv.io/3QUWOnV. Watch the full Crypto Unwrapped episode featuring Tascha Che, Katie Talati, and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3NufQyO. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The S&P 500 is down nearly 18% year to date, its worst first-half performance since 1970. U.S. consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level in 16 months in June, as inflation continues to extract its due. And Google searches for "recession" have reached a new high, according to Andreas Steno Larsen. “Typically,” he adds, “that only happens during actual recessions. Are we already in one, or is the risk overstated by now?” The fear of slowing growth now supplanting the fear of inflation, markets have fresh fuel to reprice assets across the risk spectrum. Andreas Steno Larsen joins Ash Bennington to talk about inflation, recession, and recent price action, including the particular pressure on convertible bonds. We also hear from Michael Gayed about an emerging counter-trend trade based on a correction for crude oil and commodities. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3u7AgGV. Watch the full conversation featuring Michael Gayed here: Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Russia defaulted on its external debt for the first time in more than a century, a technical breach brought about by historic sanctions on Vladimir Putin's war-making machine. Equity indexes turned lower in afternoon trade following last week's big rally but have basically shrugged off this development. Peter Boockvar, the chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vison's Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about broader implications of Russia's default on the global bond and energy markets. Boockvar and Larsen also discuss recent economic data and when we might expect to start seeing negative monthly prints in key indicators such as durable goods orders and retail sales. We also hear from Francis Gannon about why it may take a while for a market bottom to form. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3yns8V6. Watch the full interview featuring Francis Gannon here: ttps://rvtv.io/3QUWOnV. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe.. When the Fed hiked interest rates on June 13th to levels not seen since before the onset of the Covid-19 Pandemic, Egon Von Greyerz was more wary than usual. As the Founder and Managing Partner of Matterhorn Asset Management, he is no stranger to these sorts of fluctuations, but something about this particular rate hike seems different. He joins Harry Melandri to discuss the impending changes, the best way to measure returns, and why currency is not the way to go. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Dan Morehead, the CEO of Pantera Capital, talks with Maggie Lake about how new investors should approach crypto during a bear market, why he believes Bitcoin will make a comeback, and what lessons he's learned throughout his career. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All three major U.S. equity indexes were up more than 2% heading into Friday's close, even as the University of Michigan's reading of consumer sentiment hit a record low in June. As its inflation-fighting efforts threaten growth, the Federal Reserve released results of its periodic “stress tests” showing that all subject banks passed. “Bear in mind,” tweeted Jim Bianco, “the Fed does NOT test for a massive policy error leading to soaring interest rates and huge losses. In other words, these tests, created and conducted by the Fed, assume the Fed never makes a mistake.” Bianco, the founder and president of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision's Maggie Lake to talk about markets, the economy, inflation, and the Federal Reserve. We also hear from Eric Johnston about the market's perception of the U.S. central bank and its ability to meet its own targets. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3yirRmq. Watch the full conversation featuring Eric Johnston and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3bpLTT0. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Federal Reserve's commitment to cooling inflation remains “unconditional,” said Jerome Powell in a second day of congressional testimony, even as evidence from overseas indicates we're heading for a slowdown. “Growth down, inflation expectations down, cracks start to appear in commodity momentum,” tweeted Andreas Steno Larsen. S&P Global's preliminary Eurozone composite purchasing managers index fell to a 16-month low in June on slower demand growth. “We know that the manufacturing cycle is weakening fast,” Andreas noted, “but the service sector was anticipated to have a strong summer. This is now debatable.” Andreas joins Weston Nakamura to talk about Europe, while Weston provides an update on what's happening in Asia. More broadly, they talk about whether the narrative focus is changing from “inflation” to “recession.” We also hear from Tian Yang about long-term constraints on commodity supplies. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3bohJiR. Watch the full conversation featuring Tian Yang here: https://rvtv.io/3xHghji. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, testifying before Congress on Wednesday, said the central bank is “strongly committed” to bringing down inflation and can do so with its monetary policy tools. He also acknowledged that engineering a “soft landing” will be “very challenging.” Indeed, Bill Dudley, a former Fed governor, wrote today that “a recession is inevitable within the next 12 to 18 months.” Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined, as President Joe Biden floated a three-month federal gasoline tax holiday. The three major U.S. indexes held modest gains approaching the closing bell, as investors saw room in Powell's words for a sooner-than-expected dovish turn. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision's Maggie Lake to talk about the effort to control inflation without constraining growth and the market's reaction to Powell's testimony. We also hear from Tian Yang about the issue of the Fed's credibility. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Ndy8Eh. And be on the lookout for Thursday's release of the full Expert View session featuring Tian Yang. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged nearly 2% Tuesday, and it was the laggard among the major U.S. equity indexes as investors emerged from the three-day weekend buying with both hands. Energy stocks led the way, as West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3% to $111 a barrel. Bloomberg data also show the refining business is doing very well amid this energy bull. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Real Vision's Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about today's big bounce and whether it signals the beginning of something bigger. Tony also shares his thoughts on crude oil, the 3:2:1 crack spread, and the durable role of fossil fuels in the modern economy. And we hear from Michael Howell about the accumulating evidence that we're headed for a global recession. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/39E0AkP. Watch the full conversation featuring Michael Howell and Jared Dillian here: https://rvtv.io/3y7gXQf. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. The U.S. housing market boomed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Demand surged, as low interest rates fed a desire to find more space. What happens now, with the average 30-year mortgage rate up to 5.5% from 3.0% at the beginning of 2022? Nick Halaris of Metros Capital believes the market will remain resilient, and he explains why in a fascinating episode of The Next Big Trade. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Michael Gayed is an experienced portfolio manager at Toroso Investments and the author of five award-winning research papers on market anomalies and investing. He joins Maggie Lake to explain how his toughest moments made him a stronger trader and why humility is an essential element of long-term success. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Stocks held modest gains ahead of Friday's close, but it's a fraught rally to close the worst week for the S&P 500 since March 2020. Weston Nakamura joins Ash Bennington at the top of today's show to talk about the Bank of Japan's decision to stick with its “yield curve control” efforts, even as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank accelerate their monetary tightening efforts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell underscored the priority today: “My colleagues and I are acutely focused on returning inflation to our 2% objective.” Ash welcomes Michael Gayed, CIO and portfolio manager at Toroso Investments, to assess the bigger picture after a tough week for equities and fixed income. We also hear from Mark Ritchie about debt, interest rates, and how bad things could get. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3mUOI11. Watch the full Real Visionaries interview featuring Mark Ritchie II and Mark Ritchie here: https://rvtv.io/3OgNoks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

“You don't buy when there's ‘blood in the streets,'” notes Darius Dale. “You buy when there's a catalyst to clean it up.” U.S. equity indexes are bleeding today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average sliding below the 30,000 mark. The question is, what is that catalyst, and when will it reveal itself? Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision's Maggie Lake to answer that question and to talk about today's price action in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve's biggest rate hike since 1994. According to Darius, “This trending volatility won't end until the liquidity cycle inflects and speeds up the growth cycle bottom.” Mortgage rates have already exploded past 6%, a sign tighter monetary policy is already impacting consumers. How far will the Fed go to catch inflation? “Inflation KILLS societies,” says Darius. We also hear from Mark Ritchie II about how to manage risk in a volatile environment. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3mRtaSP. Watch the full Real Visionaries interview featuring Mark Ritchie II here: https://rvtv.io/3O6f2RS. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Federal Open Market Committee announced the biggest increase to the federal funds rate in a quarter century, the Bank of Japan stepped up its “yield curve control” efforts, and the European Central Bank met on an emergency basis to address Italy and “fragmenting” bond yields, as monetary policymakers continue to struggle with a crazy, mixed-up macro environment. U.S equity indexes held onto solid gains following the Fed's announcement of a 75-basis-point rate hike, and yields on 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds declined. Seeking credibility, the Fed said it's “strongly committed” to returning inflation to its 2% target. Joseph “The Fed Guy” Wang joins Real Vision's Andreas Steno Larsen to discuss what today's moves by the BoJ, the ECB, and the Fed mean for markets and the economy. We also share a segment from today's Crypto Unwrapped episode about Bitcoin, Ethereum, and recent price action in that volatile space. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3mNNFzO. Watch the full Crypto Unwrapped episode here: https://rvtv.io/3xT3viR. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The producer price index was up 0.8% month over month and 10.8% on an annual basis in May, and Wall Street economists are racing to update forecasts for this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting to include a 75-basis-point rate hike. Stocks were mixed at midday, as prices of energy commodities continue to surge. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Real Vision's Maggie Lake to explain why a fire at a Texas LNG plant caused U.S. natural gas prices to sag but European prices to surge. Tony also talks about the implications of longer-term supply constraints in the energy market. We also share a segment from today's Real Visionaries episode where top traders share actionable strategies for trading amid today's volatility. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3xOBGbq. Watch the full Real Visionaries conversation featuring Mark Minervini, Jared Dillian, and Mark Ritchie II here: https://rvtv.io/3MSn2UZ. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

“I'm genuinely spooked,” Jared Dillian tweeted late Sunday night, as Asian markets opened sharply lower and U.S. equity futures pointed to a bleak Monday open on Wall Street, “and I don't spook easily.” Two hours shy of the close, every stock in the S&P 500 is down for the day, and that index is in “official” bear market territory. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note has surged past the 10-year, a dramatic inversion that'll surely fuel talk of recession. Dillian, the editor of The Daily Dirtnap, is not waiting around to position for that eventuality and a bear market too: “70% of my portfolio is gold and bonds.” Dillian joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington to talk about today's price action. And our expert on the ground in Asia, Weston Nakamura, drops in for an update on a critical aspect of the global financial system ahead of this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. We also share a segment from today's Cryptoverse Breaking News about the crashing crypto market. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3OdWgaM. Watch the full Cryptoverse Breaking News segment here: https://rvtv.io/3txRgpg Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Paul Hodges of The pH Report and New Normal Consulting joins Harry Melandri for a fascinating conversation on global macro. Hodges believes investors must stop paying attention to every move the Federal Reserve makes and must start paying attention to the fundamentals of equity analysis again. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Jared Dillian's journey is as unconventional as it is compelling. From serving in the U.S. Coast Guard to trading over a billion dollars a day on Wall Street, Dillian has seen and done more than most ever will. Dillian joins Maggie Lake to discuss some of his best and worst trades, and he explains his theory that every trader, in one way or another, is an artist. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the consumer price index increased 8.6% from a year ago and 1% from a month ago in May. Both readings exceeded expectations and re-centered for the Federal Reserve and the White House the problem of fixing 40-year-high inflation. According to Peter Boockvar, the CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, "The odds of 50 basis points at the September meeting of the FOMC are back to 100%." Not coincidentally, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index plumbed an all-time low in May. Boockvar joins Real Vision's Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about today's CPI report, the market's reaction, and whether the Fed will be able to tame inflation and manage a “soft landing” for the economy at the same time. We also hear from Kyle Bass and Wil VanLoh about how money-printing and war have contributed to this historic inflation surge. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3O60H7h. Watch the full conversation featuring Kyle Bass and Wil VanLoh here: https://rvtv.io/3NEKq9v. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The three major U.S. equity indexes traded lower for a second consecutive day, as investors look forward to Friday's release of consumer price index data for May. The European Central Bank is accelerating its own tightening scheme, as inflation's grip on policymakers remains tight. Initial claims for unemployment insurance showed the biggest increase since July 21, a sign the labor market may be cooling. Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Real Vision's Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about choppy price action, how he's positioning himself ahead of Friday's CPI release, what he sees the Federal Reserve doing about it, and why he's trimming his long exposure. We also hear from Simon Mikhailovich about getting back to fundamentals and looking at things like balance sheets when it comes to making investment decisions. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3xi5lIK. Watch the full video featuring Simon Mikhailovich here: https://rvtv.io/3QbSHnm. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. equities slipped deeper into the red as the trading day progressed, after European stocks closed lower ahead of tomorrow's interest-rate decision by the European Central Bank. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen has hit a fresh 20-year low against the dollar, a potentially contagious development for the global financial system. Real Vision's expert on the ground in Asia, Weston Nakamura, joins Ash Bennington at the top of today's show to talk about the consequences for global markets of the yen's historic weakness. And Darius Dale is here to talk about recent price action and market risks. “We'll see new highs on yields if inflation misbehaves Friday,” says Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro. We also hear from Santiago Velez on a crypto regulation bill introduced in the U.S. Senate. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3xdgBpS. Watch the full Crypto Unwrapped episode featuring Santiago Velez, Ash Bennington, and Nico Brugge here: https://rvtv.io/3mtkeCZ. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Stocks were higher for a second straight day, but there's another set of prices we should be paying attention to, according to Tony Greer. “We're walking into the first full week of June with oil pressing the $120 highs, copper leaping 2.5% into moving average resistance, nickel bouncing 4% off trend support, wheat rallying 4% into resistance at $11, and natural gas trading at $9.” And the commodities rally shows few signs of letting up anytime soon. Indeed, the World Bank again cut its forecast for global economic expansion in 2022, warning that several years of above-average inflation and below-average growth lie ahead. Greer, the founder of TG Macro and the editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Real Vision's Maggie Lake to talk about commodities, supply chains, inflation, and growth. We also hear from Christophe Ollari about what the Federal Reserve must do to bring down inflation and what it means for markets. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3aLdRZc. Watch the full conversation featuring Christophe Ollari and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3O2fhNl. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite were all well in the green deep into Monday's trading session. “An oversold bounce is underway for the major indices in welcome relief from the downside momentum that characterized the preceding 7-8 weeks,” notes Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies. “We are viewing the oversold bounce as likely to present a selling opportunity.” Stockton joins Real Vision's Maggie Lake to talk about technical analysis and her bullish short-term and bearish long-term views on stocks. We also hear from Imran Lakha about Bitcoin, Ethereum, and recent price action in the crypto market. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3aybn0d. Watch the full conversation featuring Imran Lakha and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3auYlR8. To view Katie's charts click here: https://rvtv.io/3GXDj9D Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Dominic Frisby is a British author, comedian, and voice actor. He is best known as co-host of the television program Money Pit. He joins Harry Melandri to explain why tin is in the middle of an extraordinary bull market and outlines potential opportunities for investors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Into The Cryptoverse founder, Benjamin Cowen is one of the most popular analysts in the cryptocurrency space. Cowen, a Ph.D. nuclear engineer, has leveraged his technical knowledge and Youtube reach to create an educational platform for digital assets. Benjamin shares insights on trading digital assets during a bear market, how to deal with market volatility, and why he abandoned an academic career to become a crypto quant. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Nasdaq Composite led stock indexes to the downside on Jobs Friday, as an expectations-beating report on the May employment situation has investors believing the Federal Reserve will continue its aggressive monetary tightening program. Jim Bianco of Bianco Research has long held that the “Fed Put,” in place since 2008-09, is now dead, killed by inflation. Bianco joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington to talk about today's jobs report, the market's response, and where the Fed goes from here. We also hear from Peter Zeihan about what constrained food and energy markets mean for the geomacro environment. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ma3PmD. Watch the full conversation featuring Peter Zeihan and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3asGNoM. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

OPEC and allies agreed to move forward production increases scheduled for September, but global energy supply problems continue to undermine the Federal Reserve's efforts to fight inflation in the U.S. That's to say nothing of rising pressure on global food supply and production. Meanwhile, ahead of Friday's official report on the employment situation for May from the Bureau of Labor Statistics ADP reported private payrolls increased by just 128,000 last month. That's the smallest gain of the pandemic-era recovery. Harry Melandri, advisor for Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, joins Real Vision's Maggie Lake to talk about inflation, growth, and markets. And we hear from Neal Berger about why the Fed should just get it over with and hike by 100 basis points in a single move. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3M64iAY. Watch the full conversation featuring Neal Berger and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3NRmrDM. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We are experiencing technical issues - please head over to our YouTube to watch the livestream. The recording will be up on the website soon after we go off air. The Institute for Supply Management reported that May factory activity exceeded consensus expectations, another sign of resilience for the U.S. economy. “Today's ISM Manufacturing data represents a decent middle finger to us growth cycle bears - although the market doesn't seem to care,” said Darius Dale. Still, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro believes the global downturn is not adequately priced into equity markets. Darius joins Andreas Steno Larsen to unpack the May ISM data, the economy, and recent price action. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3m7TtE1. Watch the full interview with Charlie Morris and Michael Nicoletos here: https://rvtv.io/3PUGvHu. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Though West Texas Intermediate backed off its intraday high of $119.98, a fresh surge for crude oil has analysts invoking the old “the cure for high prices is high prices” chestnut. Food and energy costs are already dragging down household sentiment, as US consumer confidence fell in May to the lowest since February. And oil's surge may have only just begun. “Energy prices are set to blow minds this week,” tweeted Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator. “I love that there is still a bearish camp out there talking ‘demand destruction' because it helps you stay in the trade.” Tony joins Real Vision's Maggie Lake to talk about energy and inflation. We also hear from Keith Weiner on the future of gold. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3zd27su. Watch the full conversation between Keith Weiner and Mike Green here: https://rvtv.io/3wY0tsa. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here's a special bonus trade from Real Vision's original series My Life in 4 Trades – be sure to subscribe. Peter Boockvar identifies the keys to managing stress while trading. He also shares his regret at never having a mentor throughout his career. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Perth Tolle is the Founder of Life + Liberty Indexes. She joins Harry Melandri to detail why emerging markets with limited regulation will perform more sustainably than emerging markets with heavier governmental control. She explains the variables that go into Life + Liberty's allocation strategy (“freedom weighting”) and also touches on global macro. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, Peter Boockvar, joins Maggie Lake to discuss his fascinating career journey. Boockvar explains how to strategically size a position and shares how he learned to manage risk. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

“The next several weeks are going to be rather brutal for markets,” says Raoul, “and bonds are likely to be your only friend as the market begins to price in an immediate, sharp recession, then a Fed pivot in the summer.” Real Vision's co-founder and CEO joins Andreas Steno Larsen to expand on that forecast as chatter about “peak inflation” and a “soft landing” are rising, global equity fund inflows are surging, and stocks are closing out their first positive week in the last nine. Are we at a major turning point? Or is this simply a bounce within a bear market? Raoul shares his current thoughts about the economy, stocks, bonds, and crypto, emphasizing caution now with an eye on opportunities in the future. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3MQzC7Y. Watch Raoul's special flash update here: https://rvtv.io/3LYrYHo. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It was 126 years ago today, on May 26, 1896, that Charles Dow first published the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the Customer's Afternoon Letter. “He was a man after my own heart,” tweeted Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro and Maggie Lake's guest for today's Daily Briefing. The Dow is celebrating its anniversary with a 600-point surge, following through on Wednesday's post-FOMC-minutes-release rally. But Tony has his eyes on the disconnect between commodity prices and inflation expectations. “I think they will converge again soon,” he tweeted. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Economic Analysis updated its estimate of first-quarter GDP contraction from 1.4% to 1.5%. Tony and Maggie talk commodities and inflation, and we also hear from Cathie Wood about the macro environment and the long-term forecast for growth tech. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3LNIx8L. And keep an eye out for Cathie's interview with Raoul – it drops tomorrow.... Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Federal Reserve officials acknowledged an “uncertain” economic environment but forecast “solid” growth and continuing strength in the labor market, as minutes to the May FOMC meeting revealed a general consensus behind at least a couple more 50-basis-point rate hikes. The Fed also noted that “restrictive policy may become appropriate.” Stocks struggled for footing in the immediate aftermath of the minutes' release. George Goncalves, Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at MUFG, joins Real Vision's Maggie Lake to talk about the May FOMC minutes and the impact of tightening real financial conditions on markets and the economy. We also hear from Danielle DiMartino Booth and Jim Bianco about the repercussions of a widespread loss of faith in the Fed. And we get a look at today's episode of the new Real Vision series Crypto Unwrapped. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/38IF1iQ. Watch the full conversation between Danielle DiMartino Booth and Jim Bianco here: https://rvtv.io/3MmeBlg. Watch the Crypto Unwrapped episode featuring Leslie Lamb, Ash Bennington, and Paul Guerra here: https://rvtv.io/38iDcZF. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Stocks sagged early, with social media stocks dragging the Nasdaq down more than 3% on bearish earnings guidance from Snap Inc., but rallied off the lows in a move presaged by Thomas Thornton right before noon ET. “Seeing most ETFs down on the day but lifting over today's volume-weighted average prices, which, if those levels can hold, is a positive,” tweeted Thornton, the founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry. Thornton joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington to talk about today's price action in the broader (bullish or bearish?) context. And we hear from Dario Perkins, managing director at Global Macro, about the bursting of the “everything bubble” and the impact of rising interest rates on equity valuations. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3lEctcV. Watch the full conversation between Dario Perkins and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3sU59hz. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has logged eight consecutive losing weeks, but it's leading the U.S. equity indexes to the upside today with a gain of more than 2%. Perhaps investors are looking at stocks with Jared Dillian's style of optimism. “If we get a recession, and it looks like we will,” notes Dillian, “it will be a much easier trading environment than what we've been dealing with. Fed easing policy is always easier than Fed tightening policy.” Dillian, author of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington to make his case for a developing risk-on environment. We also hear from Francis “The Market Sniper” Hunt about Bitcoin and its correlation to old-school financial asset prices. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/38DtmSo. Watch the full conversation between Francis Hunt and Ash Bennington here: https://rvtv.io/3LG8cAq. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here's a special bonus trade from Real Vision's new original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Handling stress is one of the most difficult things investors are faced with daily. Howard Lindzon shares his insights on how to manage stress and why finding a good mentor can be a game changer in life and work. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's new original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. One of the biggest names in global macro, David Rosenberg, joins Harry Melandri to talk about the possible return of deflation, global supply chain issues, and what the next 12 months could look like. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here's a full-length episode from Real Vision's new original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Howard Lindzon joins Maggie Lake to discuss how a lifelong passion for comedy led to his success in the early days of the internet. He also touches on de-globalization and why finding a unicorn isn't as important as it may seem. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A surprise rate cut by the People's Bank of China boosted equity futures early Friday, and stocks did open higher. But any optimism the Federal Reserve would follow the PBoC's dovish example and not “hike until it hurts” faded before noon. "They are going to break inflation,” says Jim Bianco, “and if they break you along the way, so be it." The S&P 500 slipped into official “bear market” territory, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is on track for its eighth consecutive down week, the longest such streak since 1923. Bianco, President of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington to talk about the implications of a hawkish Fed and the possibility of a global recession. And we hear from Dario Perkins about the “tangible” opportunity that may follow this period of slowing growth. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3wvTE24. Watch the full conversation between Dario Perkins and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3wyGYYf. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Do U.S. investors pay enough attention to what's happening in overseas markets? Real Vision's expert on the ground in Asia, Weston Nakamura, shares some data at the top of today's Daily Briefing that may open your eyes to underlying systemic cracks growing in China and Japan. Then, Maggie Lake is joined by Peter Boockvar, who's concerned about how a slowing world economy will impact companies. “I think the main story now is margin contraction and the direction of earnings,” says the CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group. “We now have P/E multiples compressing, profit margins rolling over, and the growing prospect that sales will slow in response to both supply issues and the growing prospect of an economic slowdown. It's a perfect storm.” Is there more pain to come? Peter thinks so. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3wvTE24. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

“This is risk-off behavior returning,” tweeted Michael Gayed less than an hour into today's trading session, which, two hours ahead of the close, has seen the Dow Jones Industrial Average decline 2.9%, the S&P 500 shed 3.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite nosedive 4.0%. Investors are digesting a second disappointing earnings report from a major U.S. retailer, as Target followed Walmart with more data indicating inflation is, finally, having an impact on U.S. consumer behavior. Gayed, CIO and portfolio manager at Toroso Investments, joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington for today's Daily Briefing to talk about how inflation will turn into deflation and why equity indexes are looking at another major leg down. With risk assets highly correlated at present, this is an ominous sign for the cryptocurrency market as well. That's a major topic of discussion in the debut episode of Real Vision's Crypto Unwrapped series. We also hear from Jeff Moore about the Federal Reserve being late and bond market volatility. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/381fvoA. Watch the full interview featuring Jeff Moore and Raoul Pal here: https://rvtv.io/3McSPAj. Watch the first Crypto Unwrapped episode featuring Weston Nakamura, Nicolas Brugge, and Leslie Lamb here: https://rvtv.io/3lkyrS6. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Neither pandemic nor war can keep down the American consumer, even as persistent inflation and supply-chain breakdowns continue to vex economists, policymakers, and financial media talking-heads. U.S. retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.9% in April, and the figure for March was revised upward to 1.4% from 0.5%, data that reflect resilient demand. At the same time, industrial production was up a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in April, beating a consensus forecast of 0.5% and accelerating from 0.9% in March. U.S. equity indexes rallied on the solid economic data. But Vincent Deluard, Global Macro Strategist at StoneX, has concerns. Though he thinks we've reached peak inflation, he warns we could be stuck at a higher plateau for longer. “The CPI is caught in a tug-of-war between the cyclical basket, which is driven by energy, re-opening sectors, and supply chains, and the structural basket, which is driven by shelter, services, and wages. Due to base effects, cyclical dis-inflation should outweigh structural reflation until the end of the year.” Deluard joins Real Vision's Maggie Lake for today's Daily Briefing to talk about the “transitory narrative” and how investors can and should position for the persistence of secular inflation. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Mrt13y. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. equity indexes ground generally higher through the trading session Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 breaking into the green but the Nasdaq Composite struggling in negative territory. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note slipped by six basis points to 2.88%, as bonds caught a bid on economic growth concerns. Recent data from China indicate President Xi's “COVID Zero” policy is exerting a tremendous drag on the domestic economy, with down-the-line impacts on the global economy sure to follow, including supply-chain snarls. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Senior Chairman Lloyd Blankfein warned of a "very, very high risk" of a US recession. Eric Johnston, head of Equity Derivatives and Cross Asset for Cantor Fitzgerald, joins Real Vision's Maggie Lake for today's Daily Briefing to talk about short-, medium-, and long-term direction for stocks, recent macro data, and earnings. We also hear from Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence, about whether the Fed has not just the policy tools but the general resolve to do what has to be done to end inflation. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3wsV3Ff. Watch the full interview featuring Danielle DiMartino Booth and Jim Bianco here: https://rvtv.io/3MmeBlg. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices