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SPONSOR:The Richmond ForumLINKS:Pod Virginia | PatreonLearn more about Jackleg MediaIN THE NEWS:During a dramatic hearing in federal court last week, a lawyer representing the governor said he believes some of the people whose voter registration was canceled are noncitizens. Judge Patricia Giles wasn't having it. She stopped him and said she wasn't dealing with beliefs, she was dealing with evidence.In the 1890s, election after election was contested with allegations of voter fraud and stuffing the ballot box. That led to a Jim Crow Constitution that disenfranchised Black voters as well as some poor whites; some experts say the voter purge that happened 120 years ago offers lessons for today.If Democrats are going to take control of the House of Representatives, they're going to need seats like the Second Congressional District in Virginia Beach. And a new poll from the Wason Center shows the lead that Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans used to have over challenger Missy Cotter Smasal has evaporated. TRIVIA: Which Virginia congressman representing the Second Congressional District later became a Byrd Machine governor?Learn more at http://linktr.ee/JacklegMedia

Bitecofer graduated from the University of Oregon where she earned a bachelor's degree in political science and earned her Ph.D. in political science and international affairs from the University of Georgia. In 2015 she became a lecturer at Christopher Newport University and assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy where she conducted polling. In 2019 she applied to convert her position to tenure track, which would lighten her teaching responsibilities, but was denied by the university. As a result, she resigned her position and went to work for the Niskanen Center, a centrist think tank in Washington, D.C. Bitecofer's analysis has appeared on multiple media platforms including MSNBC and The New York Times. She wrote the 2017 book The Unprecedented 2016 Presidential Election on the election of Donald Trump and runs a podcast titled The Election Whisperer hosted by Substack. Today she runs Strike Pac, a liberal super PAC.

Bitecofer graduated from the University of Oregon where she earned a bachelor's degree in political science and earned her Ph.D. in political science and international affairs from the University of Georgia. In 2015 she became a lecturer at Christopher Newport University and assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy where she conducted polling. In 2019 she applied to convert her position to tenure track, which would lighten her teaching responsibilities, but was denied by the university. As a result, she resigned her position and went to work for the Niskanen Center, a centrist think tank in Washington, D.C. Bitecofer's analysis has appeared on multiple media platforms including MSNBC and The New York Times. She wrote the 2017 book The Unprecedented 2016 Presidential Election on the election of Donald Trump and runs a podcast titled The Election Whisperer hosted by Substack. Today she runs Strike Pac, a liberal super PAC.

Good morning, RVA! It's 54 °F, and, today, summerish temperatures return! Expect highs in the 80s this afternoon and for them to stretch on through next week. Are these record highs? Probably! Am I recovering from a fall cold? Yes! Will I still try to get out into the forest on my bicycle despite probably needing to rest? We'll see! Water cooler Remember last year when the Governor wanted to create permanent tax cuts for the wealthy but didn't have the votes and settled instead for one-time rebates, $200 for individuals and $400 for families? Well, the Department of Taxation has set up a website to check if you're eligible for those rebates (you gotta create an account first), and says the checks should hit your mailbox before December. The Cynical Part of Me raises an eyebrow at the near-election timing of this launch. The Regular Part of Me knows that the General Assembly just passed its budget a hot second ago and casual-sounding things like “setting up a website to check if you're eligible” are actually huge projects for already overworked teams. Looking ahead, and given all the press releases I get from Youngkin's team about the Commonwealth's surging revenue, I'd guess those permanent tax cuts for the wealthy will make a return in this coming year's budget, too. Just another reason why the November 7th election—in just 12 days!—is so very important. Make sure you've got a plan to vote, OK? In other state government news, Ben Paviour at VPM reports on the ongoing mess at the Department of Elections and their decision to remove thousands of folks from the voter rolls. It's hard to tell what's actually going on here, and I'd argue that's probably part of the point. Skip the confusion, and tap straight on through to the Department of Elections website to check your voter registration status right now. Also at VPM, Jahd Khalil writes about Republicans' plans to ban abortion should they win control of the General Assembly next month (see above about voting!). Khalil links to this recent survey by CNU's Wason Center, which asked potential voters a bunch of questions about their Top Issues heading into this election. Tap through and dig into the data, because it's fascinating. While folks support a handful of liberal issues—like keeping abortion legal, teaching kids about racism in public schools, retail marijuana sales, and not banning books—they're basically split on whether they'll vote for a Democrat or a Republican. Pulitzer Prize Winner Michael Paul Williams has more on the survey results, including this bit: “When likely voters were asked who they trusted most to make the right decisions for children in K-12 public schools, 81% of respondents trusted teachers “somewhat” or “a lot” — more so than school administrators (67%), local school boards (59%) and state government (55%). That's right: teachers were deemed more trustworthy than the school boards micromanaging education.” Standard caveats apply about how do surveys even work in a world where no one answers their phone, but still, fascinating! It's not all just state-level elections popping up on ballots, some of us get to vote for local candidates, too. If you're a Henrico resident cast your web browsers back over to the RTD where Sean Jones has put together a nice overview of the 10 candidates running for the Board of Supervisors. Eileen Mellon at Richmond Magazine sat down with Nathan Hughes, a real estate agent who's worked with local restauranteurs for decades, to talk about cursed restaurant spots. Hughes tries to explain that actual things—like location, foot traffic, and layout—probably contribute more to a restaurant's success than fake things like curses. Likely story, Hughes! Reminder: Breakaway RVA will host their final chill, informative, and fun group bike ride tonight. Meet at Scuffletown Park at 5:45 PM, wheels up at 6:00 PM! Tonight, at 6:00 PM, the YWCA host the 27th annual Remember My Name memorial at Cedar Street Baptist Church (2301 Cedar Street). This memorial gives friends, family, and community members a chance to commemorate those who have lost their lives due to domestic violence and intimate partner violence. According to the YWCA, “nearly one-third of all homicides in Virginia are attributed to domestic or intimate partner violence.” You can learn more and register (to help with the headcount) over on the website. This morning's longread Naked beneath Our Clothes I loved this essay on nakedness and bodies and how we're so weird about both. Everyone's got a body, and we've done a lot of really gross societal work to make sure we've all got thoughts on those bodies—the ones that belong to other people, sure, but mostly the one that belongs to us. Seeing other naked bodies, though, did not make me feel disrespectful. It was wondrous. The shared ease made being human more palatable. And I soon realized there is nothing exhibitionist about being naked. People look you in the eye; nobody stares at the rest of you. Nothing is new, shocking, revelatory. All the lumps and bumps, moles and birthmarks, scars and stretch marks are on display, and the need to conceal your own drops away. Nakedness, done right, has no ego. There are problems with exposing the body, of course, but there are also problems in cultures that conceal. The more artfully we cover our bodies, the more mystique there is. But the more mystique there is, the greater the desire to own, steal, guard, or violate that alluring, luring, concealed body. The paradox is built in. If you'd like to suggest a longread to show up here, go chip in a couple bucks on the ol' Patreon. Picture of the Day These mushrooms understand dense housing.

IN THE NEWS:Following The Money: Democrats raised more money overall, but Republicans have more cash on hand heading into the final weeks of election season. They also have the support of Governor Glenn Youngkin, whose PAC has given more than $700,000 to help incumbent Republican Senator Siobhan Dunnavant. Thomas and Michael talk about where the money is going--or not going--and what strategies might be running through the Governor's head.Poll Position: Republicans are leaning into the issue of abortion, hoping that their support for a 15-week ban will resonate with voters. But a new poll from the Wason Center says they may have miscalculated. The poll also shows book bans are widely unpopular and that a majority supports parental notification if students want to use different pronouns.Democracy in Virginia: Election deniers are in key positions of power in several Virginia jurisdictions: Albemarle, Frederick, Hampton, Loudoun, Lynchburg, Newport News, Portsmouth and Roanoke. That's according to a new report from the nonpartisan group Informing Democracy, which highlighted comments and social media posts of election officials. TRIVIA: Who was the Republican senator who held that seat before John Bell defeated Republican Geary Michael Higgins in 2019?At the Watercooler:- Eileen Filler-Corn is considering a run for Congress.- Senator Chap Petersen endorses a Republican for Fairfax County Board of SupervisorsA report from Informing Democracy points out some vulnerabilities in Virginia's electoral system.Learn more at http://linktr.ee/JacklegMedia

Live from the Linden Row Inn in Richmond, Virginia, where we attended the RESONATE Podcast Festival this weekend! https://www.resonatepodfest.com/IN THE NEWS:New polling numbers from the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University reveal a host of interesting results: Virginians overwhelmingly support legal abortions, but also show narrow majority support for a 15-week ban. Meanwhile, President Biden's approval rating sits around 40%, with Governor Youngkin at around 50%.Former Republican Congressman Denver Riggleman is endorsing Democrat Abigail Spanberger in a new ad--joining a long tradition of cross-party support in Virginia politics.Natural gas is leading the list of items rising in price on the new Consumer Price Index--along with food and other household items. With energy prices tied so heavily to the world economy and Russia in particular, that rise in prices has far-reaching geopolitical implications.Learn more at http://linktr.ee/JacklegMediaSponsored by the Substance Abuse and Addiction Recovery Alliance of VirginiaMichael is out with a new book! "The Byrd Machine in Virginia: The Rise and Fall of a Conservative Political Organization"https://www.amazon.com/Byrd-Machine-Virginia-Conservative-Organization/dp/1467139203

Please note that there's some pretty salty language in this episode. This is a milestone episode for us. Sherry has admired Rachel Bitecofer's work from behind her Twitter screen for years.  When she used that same screen to ask Rachel to join us on the podcast, we were both thrilled she said yes.   We are even more thrilled with the conversation we got to have with Rachel. Like most of us, she's had a bumpy road to get to where she is today: a well respected political scientist, polling expert, and commentator who has appeared in the NY Times Opinion pages, on The Daily Show, and in many other publications. But it took her a while to figure it out. After following the Grateful Dead around for a while, she did find out what her “thing” was, and enrolled in a junior college, and ultimately got her Ph.D. And how did she figure it out?  She paid attention to what was fun. Lucky for us, politics was fun for her, and the rest of us are better because of it. Please listen in to Rachel's perfectly imperfect journey, not to mention her uproariously funny sense of humor.     As long as I get to experience life, I'm pretty happy.  ~ Rachel Bitecofer Bio Rachel Bitecofer. Ph.D. is a political scientist and election forecaster turned political strategist. Her interviews and analysis have been featured by The New York Times, The Washington Post, Salon, Politico, The New Republic, Real Time with Bill Maher, CNN, MSNBC and many other prominent news sources. Rachel was recognized for her novel theory that predicted the size of the “Blue Wave” in the 2018 midterm elections much earlier than other forecasters. She then used her methodology to anticipate that Democrats would recapture the presidency in 2020, more than a year out from the election. Known as The Election Whisperer, Rachel “The Doc” Bitecofer offers hold-no-punches political commentary and has become a sought-after political strategist. She earned a Ph.D. in political science and international affairs from the University of Georgia. Rachel hosts the political podcast The Cycle, on Substack and works directly with Democratic candidates and organizations, including Matters of State Strategies, as a political strategist. Rachel's book, “Hit ‘Em Where It Hurts: How to Save Democracy by Beating Republicans at Their Own Game," co-authored with Aaron Murphy, was recently acquired by Crown Publishing and will drop in 2023. Previously, she served as a senior fellow at the Niskanen Center, a centrist think-tank in Washington, D.C., a senior advisor to The Lincoln Project, and a Lecturer in Political Science at Christopher Newport University, where she conducted and analyzed polling for the Wason Center of Public Policy. Rachel lives in Oregon and tweets prolifically to more than 140,000 followers from @rachelbitecofer. Website: https://thecycle.substack.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/RachelBitecofer

Bloomberg Washington Correspondent Joe Mathieu delivers insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including conversations with influential lawmakers and key figures in politics and policy. Guests: Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo, Research Director at the Wason Center for Civic Leadership at Christopher Newport University, Nicholas Diamond, International Director Of C&M Consulting, and Adjunct Professor of Law at the Georgetown University Law Center and Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanne Sheehan Zaino and Rick Davis. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

How much do you know about Virginia Republican nominees Glenn Younkin, Winsome Sears, and Jason Miyares? Dr. Quentin Kidd of CNU's Wason Center and Jackie DeFusco of Richmond's News Channel 8 (WRIC) evaluate the GOP nominees for the 2021 statewide elections. They identify likely campaign issues, relative challenges and advantages for the nominees, and the likelihood that any of them might beat a Democratic opponent in November.

Virginia voters in a recent poll ranked themselves as moderate, with a slightly conservative lean, but indicated support of more progressive legislation. The poll, released last week by Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center for Civic Leadership, could be a thermometer for the upcoming November election. Virginia voters ranked themselves an average of 5.83 on a zero to 10 scale (liberal to conservative). Republicans ranked themselves 8.11 on average, while Democrats rated themselves 3.57 on average. Independents ranked themselves 5.72. “In this upcoming election, it is especially possible that it could be competitive,” said Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo, research director at the Wason...Article LinkSupport the show (http://henricocitizen.com/contribute)

Dr. Quentin Kidd from CNU joined the Transition Team to analyze what happened at the first televised Democratic primary debate for Governor. Is Terry McAuliffe still the front-runner? What the heck did Justin Fairfax say this time? Kidd is the Professor and Chair of the Department of Government and Director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University.

Dr. Quentin Kidd, Director of the Wason Center for Civic Leadership, joins us to discuss their latest poll on Virginia's statewide races. Then, we talk about the mental and physical challenges we all face from the pandemic.

Good morning, RVA! It’s 31 °F, and today we see the sun! It might take until later this afternoon, but we’re gonna see that thing and feel good about it. Expect highs in the mid 40s, the snow to melt, and the opportunity to enjoy a really great cup of coffee/tea/beverage of your choice.Water coolerYesterday afternoon, police officers were called to the 1500 block of Mechanicsville Turnpike and found Jaquon Mitchell, a man in this 30s, shot to death. According to the RPD’s homicide list, this is the second murder of 2021.As of this morning, the Virginia Department of Health reports 2,740 new positive cases of the coronavirus in the Commonwealthand 43 new deaths as a result of the virus. VDH reports 395 new cases in and around Richmond (Chesterfield: 155, Henrico: 160, and Richmond: 80). Since this pandemic began, 683 people have died in the Richmond region. That’s three straight days with new reported cases in the 2,000s, and the seven-day average of the same metric fell below 4,000 for the first time since January 1st. We’ve got a similar decreasing trend in hospitalizations: We haven’t seen the seven-day average of new hospitalizations under 100 since the last day of 2020. Additionally, the seven-day average of deaths, which, remember, does lag behind the rest of the metrics, appears to have at least plateaued. These all seem like good signs of progress? Decreasing cases + increasing vaccinations = the world I want to live in right now. I am still a little nervous that Data Reporting Issues will return to dash any hopes that my spreadsheet has generated, but I’m going to allow myself to feel optimistic this morning!Michael Paul Williams at the Richmond Times-Dispatch writes about Black History Month and what it means to look back at 2020 through the lens of history. To quote a bit: “To call February’s Black History Month a ‘celebration’ always felt a bit off, but never more so than this year. Trumpism, resurgent white nationalism, insurrection and the disparate toll of COVID-19 on people of color highlight the folly of treating Black history like a footnote. You can’t understand this moment until you accept that America’s treatment of its Black citizens represents a profound failure of democracy. America’s shallow pool of knowledge of this story has just enough depth to drown us.”The City’s Economic Development Authority has approved a $120,000 grant to local restaurant delivery company ChopChop—think GrubHub, but local. From the press release: “The grant will allow ChopChop to create the Richmond Rate Reduction Program. The Richmond Rate Reduction Program reduces delivery fees charged to local restaurants from 20% to 7% for a three-month period.” A 13% reduction in fees charged to restaurants seems like maybe a noticeable amount? I have no idea! I do know, however, that this $120,000 runs out after three months, so we’ll see if ChopChop will keep their new, lower rates moving forward (which is definitely their “long-term objective”). Also, neither here nor there, this administration loves restaurants. I love restaurants, too, and I desperately miss them, but they love them, like, a lot a lot.Wyatt Gordon, writing for Style Weekly looks at how Feed More and Richmond Public Schools have worked (and continue to work!) to address hunger in our city. I love this quote from Doug Pick, Feed More’s chief executive, "This pandemic has made really clear the haves and have nots of our country…We are a really well-run logistics business with a big heart, but hunger is not the problem—it’s poverty.”General Assembly update! Keep in mind that bills die horrible deaths at many, many points along the path to becoming a law. Try not to get too stoked or upset about any of these things, because who knows when they could radically change or flameout entirely. First, for the Virginia Mercury, Ned Oliver covers the progress on marijuana legalization. Check out this exchange between Sen. Jennifer McClellan and Sen. Creigh Deeds: “Sen. Creigh Deeds, D-Bath, noted lawmakers have already decriminalized marijuana, which reduced the penalty for possession of an ounce or less from a misdemeanor punishable by jail time to a $25 civil infraction…‘At least where I live, law enforcement don’t feel incentivized to write the tickets and they’re not writing the tickets,’ Deeds said. McClellan responded, ‘With all due respect, I think that might be different in other parts of the state.’”

Good morning, RVA! It’s 64 °F, and you can expect this past weekend’s rain to continue right on through most of today and into the evening. Things should dry out tomorrow, though.Water coolerAs of this morning, the Virginia Department of Health reports 811↗️ new positive cases of the coronavirus in the Commonwealthand 4↘️ new deaths as a result of the virus. VDH reports 29↗️ new cases in and around Richmond (Chesterfield: 15, Henrico: -12, and Richmond: 26). Since this pandemic began, 381 people have died in the Richmond region. I…don’t know why a few times lately localities have posted negative coronacounts. I assume there’s a complex labyrinth a positive test result must wind its way through before it ends up posted to VDH’s public dashboard, and I imagine there’s all sorts of administrative minotaurs waiting to screw things up.Today is Indigenous Peoples' Day in both Richmond City and the Commonwealth of Virginia. Last year, Mayor Stoney officially replaced Columbus Day with Indigenous People’s Day, and this year the Governor followed suit at the state level. Actually, since Columbus Day is a federal holiday, I think “replace” might be too strong a word. Maybe “recognized in addition to” is a better way to put it? I’m not sure how this whole holiday process works.The Richmond Times-Dispatch released the results of a mayoral poll they conducted with the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University. I don’t know if this is the same poll that ended up in the Richmond Free Press last week, but the results are similar. Mayor Stoney leads in the 5th, 6th, 7th, and 9th; Councilmember Gray leads in the 2nd; and the other districts are too close to call. WIth 30% of respondents undecided, theoretically, anything could happen, including a run off. Polls are polls, and you won’t find me making any sort of bets about what could happen locally (or nationally) on Election Night.We’re coming down the home stretch on these RTD candidate questionnaires. This past weekend the paper posted the 7th District questionnaire for both City Council(Councilmember Newbille and Joseph Rogers) and School Board (School Board Rep Burke, unopposed). I’m starting to get excited about the prospect of a new City Council. We’ll have at least two new members—maybe more! Can’t wait.City Council’s Finance Committee meets today at 1:00 PM and will consider the Mayor’s Affordable Housing Trust Fund ordinance (ORD. 2020–214) and the annual ordinance to set the real estate tax to $1.20 (ORD. 2020–215). Because we live in bizarro austerity world and the suburban-and-rural-run General Assembly mostly treats cities as an afterthought, each year Richmond must pass an ordinance preventing its real estate tax rate from dropping to some state-calculated level ($1.176 at the moment). We could, of course, raise the real estate tax in some progressive-minded way to pay for essential services that folks will need to safely and successfully climb out of this pandemic. We probably won’t, but we definitely could!Speaking of essential services, the Partnership for Housing Affordability has a Housing Resource Line that you should put in your contacts (804.422.5061). If you or someone you know need help navigating housing needs, call the resource line and they’ll get you pointed in the right direction. From the website, this includes stuff like: financial assistance, foreclosure prevention, emergency assistance, legal support, and ramps. I’ve had the need for a number like this a couple times—something to give folks who are in need but aren’t facing homelessness—so I’m glad this resource line exists. Oh, also, the Homelessness Crisis Line also exists and you should put that in your contacts, too (804.972.0813).I love this story by Bill Lohmann in the RTD about reclaiming the forest behind Dogwood Dell from invasive species. I had no idea some of the older trees date back to just after the Civil War! If you haven’t been out that way, I recommend it (once the weather dries out)—it’s a pretty magical place with some great mountain bike trails, if that’s your thing.Via /r/rva, a picture of an actual pay phone near Broad & Arthur Ashe Boulevard. Almost better than the picture itself is the string of comments from old people who remember and used pay phones on the regular.This morning’s patron longreadPower Play: Inside the Dominion lobbying blitz that’s going to raise your electric billsSubmitted by Patron Gumby. Patrick Wilson at the RTD digs in on Dominion’s influence in Virginian politics as part of his (I think, ongoing) collaboration with ProPublica. Even if you’re like shrug about these specific issues, this piece will give a peek into how complex legislation is made in the Commonwealth—where our legislative body only meets for a couple of months each year.At the behest of Dominion, records show, a senior Northam administration official made last-minute changes to the legislation that increased the wind project’s price tag by an estimated $2.5 billion. The tweaks meant more money for Dominion, because state law guarantees utilities roughly 10% profit on construction projects. Neither the environmental representatives who helped craft the bill nor the state senator who sponsored it said they were aware of the changes until after the legislature passed it. What happened in those 11 weeks — detailed in emails, internal documents and dozens of interviews conducted by The Richmond Times-Dispatch and ProPublica — offers an inside look at how Dominion wields political influence in Richmond, even as growing ranks of lawmakers denounce its name and refuse its money.If you’d like your longread to show up here, go chip in a couple bucks on the ol’ Patreon.

President Donald Trump is holding a rally tonight in Newport News as a new Wason Center poll shows Joe Biden with a 5-point lead among likely Virginia voters; Jill Biden joined Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney at an early voting location; Governor Northam expanded the rent relief program to landlords; and other local news stories.

With Jacksonville hosting the Republican National Convention, political pundits have been talking about the importance of Florida as a swing state in the presidential election. But what if what we know about swing voters is wrong? Some modeling indicates there aren’t as many swing voters as conventional wisdom suggests. Political scientist Rachel Bitecofer is assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University in Newport News, VA. She joined us on Monday’s First Coast Connect with Melissa Ross , saying more than anything, this year negative partisanship will drive the fall election. Elder Abuse Monday marks World Elder Abuse Awareness Day. It's a day to raise awareness about how seniors are often targeted for various scams and forms of abuse. During the COVID-19 pandemic, that's especially true. Nancy Tufts , VP at Eldersource of Northeast Florida offered some perspectice. COVID-19: Forecasting What’s Ahead Three Jacksonvlle Beach bars closed over

Rachel Bitecofer is an Assistant Director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, where she teaches political science She explains how much of the conventional wisdom about American politics, voting, and elections is incorrect. Bitecofer also highlights how the Democratic Party is wasting time, energy, and resources in a losing effort to win over independent voters and the so-called “white working class” – a group that largely supports the Republican Party. Rachel Bitecofer also takes on one of the foundational assumptions of the mainstream news media, political consultants, and the Democratic and Republican Parties: there are not that many so-called swing voters, so why spend so much discussion, time, and energy on them? And Bitecofer explains how in this political moment Bernie Sanders has a better chance than Joe Biden of defeating Donald Trump…if the Democratic Party's leaders and voters rally around him. Chauncey DeVega states the plain facts about why Joe Biden defeated Bernie Sanders on Super Tuesday. Chauncey also offers some context for the wisdom of Black American voters and their decision to hoist Joe Biden on their shoulders in an effort to save America from the vile Donald Trump. And Chauncey DeVega shares some wisdom from the past about “rough-and-tumble” fighting in backwoods Southern America that can help the Democrats defeat Donald Trump's evil regime and movement. SELECTED LINKS OF INTEREST FOR THIS EPISODE OF THE CHAUNCEY DEVEGA SHOW Sanders can't lead the Democrats if his campaign treats them like the enemy  Four reasons why Biden shocked Sanders Black voters know the only thing that matters Black Women Went to the Voting Booth With Pragmatism on Super Tuesday Why Southern Democrats Saved Biden Why Black voters support Joe Biden 'Rough-And-Tumble': The Deeply Southern Tradition of Nose-Biting, Testicle-Ripping, and Eye-Gouging WHERE CAN YOU FIND ME? On Twitter: https://twitter.com/chaunceydevega On Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/chauncey.devega My email: chaunceydevega@gmail.com Leave a voicemail for The Chauncey DeVega Show: (262) 864-0154 HOW CAN YOU SUPPORT THE CHAUNCEY DEVEGA SHOW? Via Paypal at ChaunceyDeVega.com Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thechaunceydevegashow Please subscribe to and follow my new podcast The Truth Report https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-truth-report-with-chauncey-devega/id1465522298 http://thetruthreportwithchaunceydevega.libsyn.com/ Music at the end of this week's episode of The Chauncey DeVega Show is by JC Brooks & the Uptown Sound. You can listen to some of their great music on Spotify.

Rachel Bitecofer is an Assistant Director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, where she teaches political science She explains how much of the conventional wisdom about American politics, voting, and elections is incorrect. Bitecofer also highlights how the Democratic Party is wasting time, energy, and resources in a losing effort to win over independent voters and the so-called “white working class” – a group that supports the Republican Party. Rachel Bitecofer also takes on one of the foundational assumptions of the mainstream news media, political consultants, and the Democratic and Republican Parties: there are not that many so-called swing voters, so why spend so much discussion, time, and energy on them? And Bitecofer explains how in this political moment Bernie Sanders has a better chance than Joe Biden of defeating Donald Trump…if the Democratic Party’s leaders and voters rally around him. WHERE CAN YOU FIND ME? On Twitter: https://twitter.com/chaunceydevega On Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/chauncey.devega My email: chaunceydevega@gmail.com Leave a voicemail for The Truth Report: (262) 864-0154 HOW CAN YOU SUPPORT THE TRUTH REPORT? Via Paypal at ChaunceyDeVega.com Music at the end of this week's episode of The Chauncey DeVega Show is by JC Brooks & the Uptown Sound. You can listen to some of their great music on Spotify.

Rachel Bitecofer predicted the exact number of House seats the Democrats would win in the 2018 midterms before any other political analyst and she is already on the record as saying Trump will lose in 2020. Rachel and Roger discuss why Trump won in 2016 and why he likely won't in 2020; why the Democrats won in 2018 (it's not the reason many Democrats think); the truth about independent voters, and more.

We learn about a program that helps jail inmates express themselves through art. Then we hear from the incoming Speaker of Virginia's House of Delegates, Del. Eileen Filler-Corn. Finally, Dr. Rachel Bitecofer of the Wason Center joins us to talk about the 2020 political season.

What is driving the shortage in the skilled trades? Why are today’s students exiting high school with a negative view of the trades as viable careers? Dr. Quentin Kidd of CNU and the Wason Center for Public Policy decided to pursue parent’s perceptions of the skilled trades as a potential career for their children. The poll revealed that most parents encouraged their children to pursue prestigious jobs like doctors or lawyers. Further, parents views of prestige affects their support of vocational education which often leads to employment in the skilled trades. Kidd says he heard that the local industry leaders were having difficulty filling positions leading him to pursue a poll of attitudes about the skilled trades as a career.

On The Gist, it’s a good day for those who love quarterly fundraising numbers among Democratic presidential candidates! In the interview, we’re used to the Nate Silver approach to election forecasting, using constantly changing polling data to predict the likelihood of this or that result. But Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy, has a better way. Her new model, based on negative partisanship and demographics, is more static, and proved spot-on in 2018. So what does it have to say for 2020?  In the Spiel, a theory on what’s really keeping Kellyanne and George Conway together. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On The Gist, it’s a good day for those who love quarterly fundraising numbers among Democratic presidential candidates! In the interview, we’re used to the Nate Silver approach to election forecasting, using constantly changing polling data to predict the likelihood of this or that result. But Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy, has a better way. Her new model, based on negative partisanship and demographics, is more static, and proved spot-on in 2018. So what does it have to say for 2020?  In the Spiel, a theory on what’s really keeping Kellyanne and George Conway together. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week, Karin talks to the political forecaster Rachel Bitecofer, of the Wason Center for Public Policy in Virginia. Dr Bitecofer has developed a predictive model for US politics that was exceptionally accurate in the 2018 midterms, and she is going to tell us whether she thinks the Democratic candidate, whoever they might be, is favored to win in 2020. We'll talk about the rise of negative partisanship in America, which electoral strategy Democrats should be pursuing, and what her model says makes for a stronger or weaker candidate for the Party in this cycle. We also play the Gut Check Game, testing our reactions to some of the main media narratives around the race. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/democratically/message

In a recent survey of Virginia voters conducted by students at Christopher Newport University's Wason Center for Public Policy, nearly half said that racism is still a major problem in Virginia; one in every 8 Virginians said they've worn blackface, or knows someone who has; and the majority of those surveyed said African Americans are not treated differently when voting, although a majority of African Americans and young people disagreed. We take a deep dive into the survey results and talk about what needs to happen to bring racism to an end in Virginia. Our guests are Rachel Bitecofer, PhD, Assistant Director, Wason Center for Public Policy at CNU and Colita Nichols Fairfax, PhD, Professor and Social Scientist at Norfolk State University.

We unpack the results of the Michael Cohen hearings and other political issues with Dr. Quentin Kidd and Dr. Rachel Bitecofer of Christopher Newport University's Wason Center. Then, just in time for St. Patrick's Day, Anthony Kearns comes to the Kimball Theatre in Williamsburg. He talks to Cathy about his life in song. We also check to see what's going on in Mal's World.

How do polls impact our politics? Quinnipiac, Gallup and even SurveyMonkey put out polls measuring approval ratings, issues and candidate viability but what does it all mean? Rachel Bitecofer, Assistant Director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University comes to the front of the class to give us a lesson on how political polls are conducted and how we should read the results. Show Guest Rachel Bitecofer is Assistant Director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, where she teaches classes on political behavior, campaigns, elections, and political analysis. In her position with the Wason Center she conducts survey research on public policy issues and election campaigns. She has been featured in many media outlets including national outlets such as the Washington Post, Huffington Post, and NPR and she is a regular contributor on CBC Radio. “All that you are going to be getting when you hear a poll result from now until September maybe October...right before the primaries...is whose name voters most recognize…”

We will sort through the results of the midterm elections with Rachel Bitecofer, Assistant Director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at CNU. We will also talk to the winners about what they want to do in office.

Devon and Marisa discuss polling, data, and what to make of contradictory polls. They speak with Rachel Bitecofer, Assistant Director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University. She takes us through how to look at and analyze polls and get the most out of polling without making yourself panic.Follow Rachel @RachelBitecofer---------Please remember to rate and subscribe to Hellbent Presents: Crush the Midterms so you don't miss a single call to action or conversation about the importance of getting involved in the 2018 midterm elections. Crush the Midterms is on iTunes, Google Play, Stitcher and wherever you get your podcasts.Follow us @hellbentpod and @crush18midtermsFollow Devon @DevonHandyFollow Marisa @MarisaKabas See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Devon and Marisa discuss polling, data, and what to make of contradictory polls. They speak with Rachel Bitecofer, Assistant Director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University. She takes us through how to look at and analyze polls and get the most out of polling without making yourself panic. Follow Rachel @RachelBitecofer --------- Please remember to rate and subscribe to Hellbent Presents: Crush the Midterms so you don't miss a single call to action or conversation about the importance of getting involved in the 2018 midterm elections.  Crush the Midterms is on iTunes, Google Play, Stitcher and wherever you get your podcasts. Follow us @hellbentpod and @crush18midterms Follow Devon @DevonHandy Follow Marisa @MarisaKabas

The governor called a special session in the legislature to redraw Virginia's political districts. How will this affect the balance of power in the state? Quentin Kidd, director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, will help us analyze the situation, along with Daily Press reporter Reema Amin.

We will talk to Samantha Biggio and Heidi Drauschak, founders of CrowdLobby, an app that allows you to join with like-minded citizens and hire your own lobbyist. We'll also discuss new developments in the upcoming midterms with Dr. Rachel Bitefcofer, Assistant Director of the Wason Center for Public Policy. Then we will meet Matt Waters, the Libertarian candidate in Virginia's Senate race. Please call us during this show at 440-2665 or (800) 940-2240.

In the aftermath of the primaries and the start of the general election season for the 2018 midterms, you're going to want some answers. We will discuss winners, losers, and predictions with Dr. Quentin Kidd, Director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University. We will also be hearing from Rep. Rob Wittman of Virginia's 1st District, Sen. Tim Kaine, and the winners of last night's race about what they hope to accomplish in November... and after.

With the 2016 Presidential election fast approaching, we're joined by the Director of the Wason Center for Public Policy, Quentin Kidd, for a look at what's to come. We'll consider how tonight's Iowa caucus might shape the field of Presidential hopefuls, and consider how our purple state is likely to vote come November.

Which party will control the Virginia Senate after the November 3 general election? The Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University hosted a debate between Senate Majority Leader Tommy Norment (R) and Minority Leader Dick Saslaw (D) this week. Today, we bring you that event in which Norment and Saslaw debate why voters should give their respective party the majority. This program was edited for time contraints.

Virginia Secretary of Commerce and Trade Maurice Jones will join a panel discussion to explore the economic value of clean streams, rivers, and a restored Chesapeake Bay at the next Blue Planet Forum on Tuesday, March 10, 2015. Joining Jones will be Chesapeake Bay Foundation (CBF) Senior Water Quality Scientist Dr. Beth McGee and Dr. Quentin Kidd, chair of Christopher Newport University's Department of Government and director of the university's Wason Center for Public Policy. The panelist join host, Cathy Lewis, in advance of that lecture for an in-depth look at the true value of preserving the Chesapeake Bay and its surrounding waterways.