The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer

US President Donald Trump may envision himself as a Middle Eastern puppet master only to find out that Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Arab and Muslim leaders have played him. Even so, it is Hamas and the Palestinians who are likely to hold the bag, not Mr. Trump. The fact of the matter is that no one in the Middle East and the broader Muslim world sees their interests minimally represented in the US president's 20-point plan to end the Gaza war, but no regional leader is willing to get on Mr. Trump's wrong side by telling him so.

US ambassador to Turkey and special envoy to Syria Tom Barrack appeared to frame the administration's thinking in a freewheeling interview on the eve of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's high-stakes meeting on Monday in Washington with President Donald Trump, his fourth in ten months. The two men's discussions will focus on a 21-point plan presented by Mr. Trump earlier in the week to Arab and Muslim leaders on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Messrs. Trump and Netanyahu appear to have set out their positions in advance of the meeting, suggesting that harsh words could be exchanged.

On this edition of Parallax Views, Israel continues bombing Gaza, Houthis launch a drone strike on the Israeli city of Eilat, Israel conducts airstrikes in Doha, Qatar, the Gaza aid flotilla is being swarmed by Israel according to crew, and European states are recognizing Palestinian statehood. A lot is going on in terms of the Middle East and especially Israel Palestine. James M. Dorsey of the Turbulent World blog/Substack, a longtime scholarly commenter on the Middle East, returns to break it all down and discuss a number of topics including the two-state solution vs. the one-state solution vs. the one-state reality, Gulf and Arab states now seeing Israel as a bigger security threat than Israel, Israel's attack on a compound in Gaza that killed members of the Doghmush clan and its implications, Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard's Knesset run, problems with the Palestine Authority, Israel's West Bank annexation plans, and much, much more. To listen to the podcast or read the transcript, go to https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/israels-bombing-europe-recognizes

Even by its own standards. Israel is cutting off its nose to spite its face. On Sunday, Israel scored an own goal when it targeted the compound of Gaza's powerful Doghmush clan, killing 25 extended family members. Located in Gaza City's Sabra district adjacent to the city's municipality, the Doghmush have long had a troubled relationship with Hamas. Without identifying the Doghmush by name, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has long hoped that the family, despite its chequered past, and other clans would serve as a Palestinian fig leaf in a post-war Gaza administration that would exclude Hamas and the West Bank-based, internationally recognised Palestine Authority and would be subservient to the Jewish state. It was a strategy that was doomed from the outset.

Recognition of a Palestinian state at the UN is gaining momentum, with Australia, the UK and France joining over 145 countries in support. Yet, major players like the US and Japan remain hesitant. What impact does this have on a long-lasting solution to the war in Gaza? BFM 89.9 discusses this with Dr. James M. Dorsey, Adjunct Senior Fellow at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

International sports boycotts of Israel are a question of if rather than when, with mounting pressure and ever more targeted boycotts and sanctions against Israel and widespread public anger at the Jewish state's conduct of the Gaza war. Next week's United Nations General Assembly proceedings in New York, where Gaza is certain to take centre stage, are likely to make it increasingly difficult for international and national sports associations to remain on the sidelines under the fictional assertion that sports and politics are separate, and that sports build bridges.

James M. Dorsey discusses on TRT World the impact of the Gaza war on Israeli soldiers, with hundreds reportedly taken their own and many more suffering from Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).

What steps will the Doha emergency summit take following Israel's attack_TRT 16092025 by James M. Dorsey

US Secretary Marco Rubio's first engagement after arriving in Israel this weekend to discuss the Gaza war and the fallout of Israel's strike in Qatar sent a dangerous signal. By visiting Jerusalem's Western Wall, a Jewish place of prayer and pilgrimage together with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and the United States' Christian Zionist ambassador to the Jewish state, Mike Huckabee, Mr. Rubio was implicitly framing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a religious and civilisational rather than a national dispute.

Is Qatar the straw that breaks the camel's back by James M. Dorsey

Israel is playing a high-stakes game of bluff poker. The problem is that the stakes are high not only for Israel but also for its foremost supporters, the United States and Europe, as well as Gulf states with which it enjoyed close relations despite differences over Gaza, Palestine, and Iran. How the US, Europe, and the Gulf respond to Israel's targeting of Hamas's leadership in exile in Qatar, one of three mediators alongside the United States and Egypt in the Gaza war, is likely to determine whether Israel's gamble pays off. The fact that Israel failed to kill any of the senior Hamas leaders gathered to discuss an Israeli-endorsed US proposal to end the war and initial responses to the attack don't bode well for Israel.

Israel's risky strike against Qatar was neither an unmitigated success in Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's terms nor a complete failure, even if it's too early for a definitive cost-benefit analysis of what could prove to be a watershed.

With the United States and Israel discussing a follow-up to a US$38 billion ten-year Memorandum of Understanding between the two countries, which is set to expire in 2028, Israeli officials are warming to the notion of a paradigm shift in US-Israeli military relations.

Nearly two years into Israel's devastating war in Gaza, ceasefire negotiations remain stalled, the humanitarian toll continues to mount, and international divisions are deepening. Despite mounting global pressure, Israel has resisted calls for a permanent ceasefire, insisting on unfeasible conditions. During this week's Middle East Report, James M. Dorsey analysed the faltering ceasefire efforts. Dorsey outlined the core of the impasse: a mounting divergence between Israeli and much of the international community, and Hamas's demands on the other. In August, Hamas accepted an Israeli-endorsed US proposal for a 60-day ceasefire. Yet, Israel and US envoy Steve Witkoff shifted the narrative, insisting any truce be permanent and linked to full hostage release—effectively changing the negotiated goalposts. Dorsey warned that this tactical shift by Israel and the United States amounts to deliberate undermining of ceasefire momentum. “So, in effect, what Israel is doing is sabotaging a ceasefire,” Dorsey said. The Trump administration has enacted sweeping punitive measures against Palestinians: preventing Palestinian officials—including President Mahmoud Abbas—from attending the United Nations General Assembly in New York; barring Palestinian passport holders from US entry; and sanctioning Palestinian human rights groups supporting South Africa's genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Dorsey observed that diplomatic and economic pressure on Israel remains insufficient—yet potentially poised to escalate. “Private sector and limited government sanctions are troubling Israelis, but not enough to push Prime Minister Netanyahu to reconsider his policies,” Dorsey said. At the same time, civil society in Europe and elsewhere are campaigning for sanctions against Israel. “If and when sanctions start to kick in by the Europeans, serious sanctions that start to hit where it hurts, that's something that Israel is going to have to take account of,” Dorsey said. Dorsey also spotlighted the latest flotilla of 50 ships from 44 countries—including activists from Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar—that has set sail to break the siege of Gaza. He flagged the unprecedented involvement of Gulf nationals as “remarkable,” given the suppression of pro-Palestinian expression of support in much of the Middle East. Finally, Dorsey touched on Lebanon's entanglement: the Lebanese government, under US pressure, has committed to disarming Hezbollah, though the group has refused to comply. On paper, this move is framed as a step toward consolidating state sovereignty by ensuring the monopoly of arms rests with the state. But in practice, it places Beirut in an impossible bind. Hezbollah, still reeling but not broken from its latest confrontation with Israel, has declared it will not give up its weapons as long as Israeli forces occupy Lebanese land. This creates a standoff between Hezbollah, which commands loyalty across significant sections of Lebanese society, and the fragile Lebanese state. For ordinary Lebanese, this uncertainty compounds daily struggles. The country is still reeling from years of financial crisis, the 2020 Beirut port explosion, and one of the world's worst currency devaluations. Analysts warn that pressure to confront Hezbollah militarily could trigger fresh conflict in a society exhausted by instability. At the same time, Washington insists that Lebanon must show it can rein in armed groups operating independently of the state. As Dorsey put it, this leaves Lebanon “between a rock and a hard place,” trying to navigate American demands without igniting a civil confrontation that could spiral into another round of violence.

Israelis are enjoying their mangoes this summer at sharply reduced prices at the expense of food-deprived Gazan Palestinians. The sharp drop in mango prices is as much a result of Israel's throttling of the flow of food into Gaza and its economic blockade of the Strip as it is a byproduct of increasing consumer boycotts of Israeli products and US President Donald Trump's tariffs on Brazilian and Mexican imports of the fruit. As a result, Israel is witnessing a mango glut, with the Gaza market shut down because of the almost two-year-long war, and Latin American producers are grabbing European market share from Israel with pricing that undercuts Israeli produce. Mangos are the exception to the rule. Most private sector and primarily limited government sanctions and boycotts of Israel are causing Israelis discomfort, but not yet the kind of pain that could persuade Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to rethink his warmongering and morally, legally, and politically questionable policies. However, the pain is likely to increase, all the more so as Israel and the Trump administration proceed with plans to make Gaza even more uninhabitable than it already is, so that Palestinians decide they have no option but to emigrate.

The UAE's long-standing no holds barred campaign to persuade Western and other nations to proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood as the source of all Islamist evil, is producing results. The question is whether crackdowns on freedoms of expression and assembly, leaving Muslims and others with few, if any, release valves, coupled with anger at Western and Arab restrictions on expression of support for the Palestinians and a Western refusal to sanction Israel for its Gaza war conduct, creates a feeding ground for a next generation of Islamist militants.

James discusses on Radio Islam the dim prospects for ending the Gaza war and resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Pursuing diametrically opposed objectives, Gaza's ceasefire mediators are working at cross purposes. The divide among the mediators, the United States, Qatar, and Egypt, significantly diminishes the chances of the ceasefire talks succeeding and, if they do, reaching a deal that would lead to an end of the war. Hamas's renewed acceptance by Hamas of a months-old Israeli-endorsed US proposal for a 60-day-ceasefire was as much a product of the mediators working at cross purposes as it was a Qatar-Egyptian attempt to get the talks back on track. It was also an effort to re-engage US President Donald Trump, who, faced with mounting criticism of Israel's Gaza starvation policy from segments of his support base, has gone silent on the ceasefire talks. Finally, Qatar and Egypt hope the revived talks will keep open the door to a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The prospects for a Palestinian two-state solution appear increasingly bleak as Israel presses ahead with its military campaign to seize control of Gaza City while advancing a major settlement project that would sever the West Bank from East Jerusalem. On BFM 89.9, James weighs in on how international powers are responding and what could halt this devastating war. Separately, James talks to AzNews about the equally bleak prospects

Netanyahu has long used ultranationalist threats to collapse his government as a justification for his refusal to end the Gaza war, while, in fact, the far-right ministers in his Cabinet provide him a needed fig leaf to pursue policies designed to advance their shared notion of Greater Israel at the expense of Palestinian aspirations.

A Palestinian businessman is lobbying to become the post-war governor of Gaza amid a reported shifting of gears in the Trump administration's strategy in Gaza ceasefire talks.

Dow Jones has a stellar record of standing by its reporting. As a former Wall Street Journal foreign correspondent, I know that firsthand.

A recent opinion poll in Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim-majority state and democracy, throws a damper on Israeli and US hopes that Middle Eastern and Muslim states may recognise the Jewish state without a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. Even more concerning, the poll suggests that public opinion is turning against a compromise two-state solution that would see the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel as advocated by an overwhelming majority of the international community, including Arab and Muslim states. The poll indicates that Israeli plans for a ground occupation of Gaza, Israel's US-backed devastation of Gaza to create an environment conducive to depopulation of the Strip, and its repressive West Bank settlement policy are driving the hardening of public attitudes.

With Saudi recognition of Israel off the table, pro-Israeli and Israeli pundits and far-right and conservative pro-Israel groups in the United States are pushing the kingdom to become an aggressive regional player in Israel's mould. The pundits and groups want Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to abandon his de-escalation policy, including the kingdom's fragile freezing of its differences with Iran, and to reignite his ill-fated 2015 military campaign against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen that sparked one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. Proponents of a Saudi Arabia, that like Israel would impose its will with military force, believe that a more assertive kingdom would allow Israel to outsource its fight with the Houthis, revive the notion of an Israeli-Gulf anti-Iran and anti-Turkey alliance, help Saudi Arabia resolve differences with the United Arab Emirates, Israel's best Arab friend, and potentially give the possibility of Saudi recognition of Israel and a key role in post-war Gaza a new lease on life. To garner support among US administration hawks and President Donald J. Trump's isolationist Make America Great Again (MAGA) support base, the pundits and conservative think tanks argue that Saudi Arabia's de-escalation policy and informal ceasefire with the Houthis have enabled rebel missile attacks against Israel and US naval vessels and commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

In a reversal of repeatedly stated policy that Israel would not re-occupy Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is signalling that he is mulling Israel's re-occupation of the Strip. Mr. Netanyahu suggested as much in a Hebrew-language statement issued by his office. Israel's Security Cabinet this week discussed the proposition with the full Cabinet scheduled to debate it in the coming days. The statement announced that Mr. Netanyahu had decided to "occupy all of the Gaza Strip, including areas where hostages may be held." Even so, it remains unclear whether Mr. Netanyahu wants to re-occupy Gaza or is hoping that the threat will persuade Hamas to bow to Israeli demands in stalled ceasefire negotiations.

US President Donald J. Trump's acknowledgement of Israel's throttling of humanitarian aid reaching Gaza is more than a rebuke of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's denials of starvation in the Strip. It also signals the president's temporary retreat from grandiose visions of reshaping the Middle East. Mr. Trump's switching of gears to focus on Gaza's humanitarian crisis was likely prompted by images of Palestinians, particularly babies and children, emaciated by Israel's refusal to allow the unfettered flow of humanitarian aid into the Strip. Even so, the president's focus also serves to entrench Israeli control and stymie a brewing generational revolt in his support base and the recognition of Palestine as a state by key US allies, including France, Britain, and Canada.

A far-right pro-Israel think tank has put flesh on suspicions that Israel is seeking to weaken the government of President Ahmed al-Sharaa, if not break up Syria as a nation state. The Philadelphia-based Middle East Forum revived a years-old call for a “freedom corridor” that would link the Druze community in southern Syria with the Kurds in the north. The Forum's call came as senior Israeli and Syrian officials negotiate security arrangements aimed at staving off further Israeli military strikes and limiting interference in Syria's domestic affairs.

James discusses on aNews mounting pressure on Israel to allow unfettered humanitarian aid into Gaza and to end the devastating war.

US-mediated talks between Israel and Syria serve as a bellwether for the extent to which Israel can reshape the Middle East and impose its will on the region. They also are likely to indicate the degree to which US and Israeli interests diverge in Syria. Syrian Foreign Minister Assad al-Shaiibani and Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, a confidante of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, focussed this week on security arrangements in southern Syria in a round of talks in Paris chaired by Tom Barrack, the US Ambassador to Turkey and the Trump administration's Syria envoy. The talks were the highest-level meeting between officials of the two countries in 25 years and the first since the latest clashes in the southern Syrian city of As-Suwayda between the country's Druze minority, Bedouin militias, and Syrian security forces, and Israel's bombing of military targets, including the defence ministry, in the capital Damascus. The London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights put the clashes' death toll at 1,399 people, 196 of whom were summarily executed. Mr. Netanyahu dispatched Mr. Dermer to Paris following several meetings in Azerbaijan between Mr. Al-Shaibani and the prime minister's national security advisor, Tzachi Hangebi, that fuelled Israeli and US hopes that security arrangements could be a first step toward Syrian recognition of Israel. The Paris talks are likely to establish whether Israel can dictate to President Ahmed al-Sharaa where in Syria his military can operate and the degree to which Israel can successfully project itself as the protector of Syrian minorities, such as the Druze, a secretive monotheistic group based In Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and Israel, and the Kurds in the north.

Instability Spreads As Israels Military Campaigns Escalate_BFM 23072025 by James M. Dorsey

A just-published report on Israel and the United States' interception of Iranian missiles during the 12-day Israel-Iran war highlighted the Jewish states' dependence on US military support. The report by the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) concluded that US-operated Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence or THAAD air defence systems, produced by Lockheed Martin, accounted for almost half of all interceptions of Iranian missiles fired at Israel during the war. The US positioned a second of its seven THAAD systems and crew in Israel in April. The US deployed the first system last October. A THAAD battery, one of the United States' most powerful anti-missile systems, typically deploys with 95 soldiers, six truck-mounted launchers, 48 interceptors (eight per launcher), and a mobile radar. The system intercepts incoming projectiles from up to 200 kilometres away with kinetic energy, in a process often referred to as “hit-to-kill,” or “kinetic kill.” The Institute's report suggested that Israel depended on THAAD because it lacked sufficient interceptors for its Arrow anti-ballistic missile system. The United States expended more than a year's worth of THAAD interceptor production in the Israel-Iran war at a cost of US$12.7 million per interceptor, or US$1.7 billion for the approximately 100 interceptors fired during the war. "As a result, the United States used up about 14 percent of all its THAAD interceptors, which would take three to eight years to replenish at current production rates,' the report said. The Institute's Iran Projectile Tracker reported that the United States and Israel had successfully neutralised 201 of the 574 missiles fired by Iran during the war, with 316 landing in unpopulated areas. Israel has admitted that Iranian missiles had pierced its air defence systems, striking at military targets and residential areas. In a twist of irony, Iran increased its successful hit rate by one to four per cent in incidents when they were confronted by THAAD interceptors, the Institute's report said, based on analysis of video shot by Amman-based photographer Zaid Abbadi. Even so, the Institute argued that air defence support of Israel in the war served US interests beyond coming to the aid of an ally. "This strong support of a US partner may also reinforce US. deterrence against Russia and China," the report said. What the report did not say is that it also demonstrated the degree to which Israel depends on the United States for its defence, despite the ruthless prowess of the Israeli military and the sophistication of the country's military-industrial complex.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu appears determined to depopulate Gaza by hook or by crook, even if he has bowed to US pressure by agreeing to a reduced military presence in the Strip as part of a temporary ceasefire. The reduced presence, involving a withdrawal from the Morag Corridor that separates Rafah from the rest of Gaza, would complicate Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz's plans to corral hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in a tent camp on the flattened ruins of the Strip's southernmost city close to the Egyptian border. That hasn't stopped Israel from seeking to depopulate Gaza by ensuring that the Strip is unliveable and uninhabitable in the hope that Palestinians will ‘voluntarily' relocate to a third country.

Soccer has long been a tightly controlled double-edged sword for Middle Eastern autocrats. On the one hand, autocrats sought to harness the sport's popularity that evokes the kind of passion in a soccer crazy part of the world that was traditionally reserved for religion. On the other hand, soccer constituted one of the few arenas in which youth could vent frustration and anger. Soccer's disruptive potential was evident in 2011 when militant fans played a key role in the Arab popular revolts that toppled the leaders of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen. With world soccer body FIFA disregarding violations of its rules that ban government interference in sports and restrict ownership of premier league clubs to one per owner, governments sought to control the sport's disruptive power by owning several top clubs or ensuring that individuals with close ties to the regime controlled them. Fifteen years later, autocratic perceptions of soccer's double-edged sword may be changing. A confluence of developments has, for the first time, prompted Middle Eastern autocrats to contemplate foreign ownership of domestic clubs.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar celebrated this week a “diplomatic victory” by delaying European sanctions against the Jewish state. It's a victory that could prove to be pyrrhic. That is, if EU foreign ministers, increasingly critical of Israel's conduct in the Gaza war, put their money where their mouth is and make good on their threat to suspend the Jewish state's 25-year-old association agreement with the European Union because of its human rights violations.

The writing is on the wall. As Gaza ceasefire talks flail, if not fail for the umpteenth time, a series of vignettes tell the story of Israel's increasingly shrinking support base in the United States and Europe. Alarmingly for Israel, the vignettes reflect mounting criticism of the Jewish state in US President Donald J. Trump's Make America Great Again and America First support base, as well as among European leaders. To be sure, Chirstian Zionists and pro-Israel Evangelicals remain an important segment of Mr. Trump's base. Similarly, European leaders have yet to put their money where their mouth is. Even so, failing to do so is becoming increasingly difficult. That realisation may be registering on Israeli radars. Not that it will change Israel's indefensible conduct of the Gaza war. Instead, Israel's response resembles Hans Brinker, the boy in Mary Mapes Dodge's 19th century children's novel, who puts his finger in a Dutch dike to prevent a major breach.

World soccer body FIFA's more than a decade-long refusal to implement meaningful reforms and adhere to its own principles, rules, and regulations is on public display. FIFA's response to past corruption scandals and willingness to award World Cup hosting rights to violators of the group's human rights standards illustrate the organisation's rejection of meaningful change that would hold the group accountable. So do FIFA's repeated, mostly cosmetic, reforms aimed at pacifying public and commercial clamouring for change. The scandals and disregard for FIFA's Human Rights Policy and Code of Conduct are “only the tip of football's problem iceberg. An extended troubleshooting list includes antiquated governance structures, growing financial imbalances, and inadequate safeguards for athletes, just to name some of the most pressing issues,” said law professor Jan Zglinski in a recent 26-page academic paper. Mr. Zglinski argues that, potentially, Europe, a leader in regulating sports, and particularly soccer, as a sector of the economy, could emerge as the sport's white knight.

Malaysia, unlike other perceived Muslim Brotherhood supporters such as Qatar and Turkey, has remained, by and large, in the shadows of the Middle East's information wars, despite the country's public support for Hamas. That may change if a recent report by the Philadelphia-based far-right, pro-Israel Middle East Forum is anything to go by.

What happens when you bring together three veteran foreign correspondents, each carrying decades of wisdom, scars, and tales from the world's most dangerous places?

A much-touted meeting between US President Donald J. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, their third encounter this year, apparently failed to move the needle on a Gaza ceasefire, despite both men expressing optimism that an agreement was only days away.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to meet US President Donald Trump at the White House on Monday. The talks come amid ongoing indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Doha, as efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza continue. James M. Dorsey, an adjunct senior fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, shares his analysis on whether Trump's push for a 60-day truce has a real shot.

If US President Donald J. Trump had his druthers, he would announce a Gaza ceasefire on Monday when Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu visits him in the Oval Office for the third time this year That may be easier said than done despite Mr. Netanyahu's endorsement of the latest US ceasefire proposal and Hamas's ‘positive' response. Mr. Netanyahu and Hamas have responded positively to the proposal, even though it doesn't bridge the most significant issue dividing them: whether to end the war and on what terms. Even so, neither Mr. Netanyahu nor Hamas wants to get on Mr. Trump's wrong side and shoulder the blame for another failure to get the guns to fall silent in the devastated Strip. Reading between the lines of the two parties' responses, the cracks are apparent. Nevertheless, the parties appear inclined to accept what amounts to cosmetic changes that paper over the gap in their positions, which have not narrowed.

Gaza, US military contractors, Trump, Syria , and much more

American contractors guarding aid distribution sites in Gaza are allegedly using live ammunition and stun grenades against Palestinians seeking food, according to the Associated Press. James M. Dorsey, from Singapore's S Rajaratnam School of International Studies weighs in.

Note: There's a little bit of crackle in the audio in this episode. Attempts were made to remove crackle as much as possible, but it remains at some point. Hopefully it does not pose too much of a problem for listening. https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/israel-iran-ceasefire-fragility-israels On this edition of Parallax Views, James M. Dorsey of the Turbulent World Substack blog returns to reflect of the "ceasefire" between Israel and Iran. Dorsey argues this is not so much a ceasefire as a fragile halt of hostilities for the time being, or a pause. Dorsey notes that it's unclear how much of Iran's nuclear program has been damaged or salvaged by the Islamic Republic in light of the strikes. That, he says, is a big question right now. We then discuss Trump's relationship with the Gulf States and his evangelical Christian Zionist base. That poses an issue for Trump, Dorsey argues. $3.6 trillion are on the table from the Gulf States (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.) and they want the situation with Israel, Gaza, and Iran solved according to Dorsey. The tumult and fragility of the Middle East has become something of a headache for both the U.S. and the Gulf States. Dorsey argues the current talk of a Gaza ceasefire is a "Fata Morgana", or a mirage, an illusion. We delve into the different interests at work when it comes to the Gulf States and Israel, and how the relationship between Israel and certain Gulf States have changed from 2015 to now. He argues that the Gulf States' perceptions of Israel have changed. For one thing, the Saudi Arabia-Iran rapprochement means that the situation of Israel's unofficial alliance with the Saudis against Iran has changed. Moreover, Dorsey says that the defense doctrine of Israel has gone from deterrence to emasculation of perceived enemies and states within the region. This changes the dynamic between Israel and the Gulf States, at least in how the Gulf States perceive Israel. Which is to say that Gulf States are now perceiving Israel as aggressive leading to the question of, "Could we be next?" We then begin delving into some "odds and ends" in the conversation including: - Israel, Palestine, and the issue of the 1967 borders - The history of the U.S.-Iran relations and why they have been so tense - Pushing back on the "mad mullahs" narrative about the Islamic Republic of Iran - Trump's walking away from the JCPOA (the Iran nuclear deal) - Is Iran more likely to go nuclear after the latest strikes? - Biggest risk in the Middle East?: not tackling root problems; Israel's belief that it has the right to strikes whenever and wherever it wants against a perceived threat means a "law of the jungle" system in the Middle East and could become adopted by other states - Potential deal between Israel and Syria - The Abu Shabab clan in Gaza - Netanyahu's rejection of any Palestinian national aspirations and what informs it - And more! NOTE: Views of guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect all the views of J.G. Michael or the Parallax Views w/ J.G. Michael program

It's going to take more than the halt of Israeli-Iranian hostilities to replicate US President Donald J. Trump's success in Gaza, let alone leverage it into a paradigm-changing Saudi, Arab, and Muslim recognition of the Jewish state. It's not because of a lack of effort but because the assumptions underlying the push to end Israel's devastating 21-month-long assault on the Strip in response to Hamas' October 7, 2023, attack on Israel are problematic. Earlier this week, Mr. Trump asserted, “We think within the next week we're going to get a (Gaza) ceasefire.” Mr. Trump's prediction came amid increasing chatter about a possible long-evasive pause, if not a permanent halt, to the Israeli assault that has turned Gaza into a pile of rubble and sparked one of the world's worst humanitarian crises.

Iran has vowed to respond to any future US strikes by attacking American military bases in the Middle East, according to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in an address on Thursday- his first televised remarks since a ceasefire was reached between Iran and Israel. The 12-day war culminated in Iran's attack on a US base in Qatar, which is the largest in the region, after the US joined Israeli strikes. US intelligence assessments indicate that America's bunker-buster bomb and cruise missile strikes did not destroy the three Iranian nuclear sites on Sunday- despite Trump's remarks that the attack “completely and fully obliterated” the Islamic Republic's nuclear program. Analysts have warned that although the ceasefire is still intact, it is extremely fragile, with hopes for longer-term peace resting on potential negotiations between the US and Iran next week. “There may or may not be negotiations this week or talks this week between the United States and Iran, but nothing is going to get resolved and as a result you've got a very fragile ceasefire,” James M. Dorsey said in this week's Middle East Report

Don't hold your breath. US President Donald J. Trump's silencing of Iranian and Israeli guns is fragile at best. Speaking at a news conference on the sidelines of a NATO summit, Mr. Trump admitted as much. “Can it start again? I guess it can, maybe some day soon,” Mr Trump said. The fragility was built into the halt to the hostilities from the outset, starting with differences over whether the halt constituted a ceasefire. Iran rejects the notion of a ceasefire, even if it has agreed to halt the hostilities.

The Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD) hosted an award-winning journalist and scholar Dr. James M. Dorsey for a special Horizons Discussion on June 23rd, 2025. In conversation with Horizons Managing Editor Stefan Antić, Dorsey unpacked the lightning-fast escalation between Israel and Iran, the Trump administration's divided response, and the wider stakes for regional and great-power politics.

The targeted sites by the US attack on Iran are Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. Fordo is one of Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities, located underground in the southwest of Tehran. Natanz is another major enrichment site, which is located southeast of Tehran. Uranium had been enriched to up to 60 per cent purity at the site before Israeli strikes targeted parts of it.

Hamas' October 7, 2023, paradigm-shifting attack has prompted Israel to change its defense doctrine with devastating consequences for the Middle East. No longer satisfied with operating on the principle of deterrence, involving regular strikes against Hamas in Gaza and Lebanon, militant Palestinian groups in the West Bank, Yemen's Houthi rebels, Iranian targets in Syria and the Islamic Republic, and Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, Israel's new defense doctrine focuses on militarily emasculating its opponents. The new doctrine, focused on kinetic rather than negotiated solutions, has driven Israeli military operations since the Hamas attack broke a psychological barrier by successfully breaching Israeli defences and invading Israeli territory. Hamas and other Palestinians killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, in the attack. Israel's subsequent decimation of Hamas and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite militia and political movement, with little regard for the cost to innocent human lives, offered proof of concept for a strategy that involves killing top leaders and destroying military infrastructure based on the Jewish state's military and intelligence superiority. In addition to the devastation of Gaza in a bid to destroy Hamas militarily and politically and the weakening of Hezbollah, Israel has destroyed much of the Syrian military arsenal and infrastructure since the fall of President Bashar al-Assad. Now, it is targeting Iran's military command, missile and launcher arsenal, and nuclear facilities. “The unexpected degree of success…reduced Israeli wariness about launching a similar campaign against Iran, despite expectations that a severe Iranian response might still be forthcoming,” said Michael Koplow, chief policy officer at the Israel Policy Forum. Alarmingly, Israel's newly conceived dominance-driven military assertiveness has fueled public anger and widespread anticipation of war across the Middle East.

In this timely commentary, award-winning journalist and scholar James M. Dorsey unpacks the deeper implications of the recent Iran-Israel escalation. From regional power dynamics to global repercussions, he offers sharp, incisive insights into what this confrontation reveals—and what might come next.