The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer

The United States and Israel's war on Iran is about to escalate with no exit strategy in sight. Several factors are pushing the combatants toward escalation:  US President Donald Trump cannot credibly declare victory and an end to the war as long as Iran controls passage through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.  Israel signalled its intent to emasculate Iran militarily and economically for years to come with this week's assassination of five top Iranian officials and an attack on the Islamic Republic's South Pars Gas field.  Iran, determined to prolong the war in the belief that it has the longest breath and ability to absorb body blows, has vowed to retaliate for the Israeli actions in ways that inevitably will spark an escalation of the hostilities

Since returning to the Oval Office in January of last year, US President Donald Trump has changed global diplomacy, placing himself at the centre of international relations. Countries manoeuvred to stay in Mr. Trump's good books and avoid becoming targets of his ire. However, Mr. Trump's success may be running out of steam with America's European and Asian allies refusing to heed the president's call to help secure shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

President Donald Trump would be well advised to learn the lessons of the last time the United States sought to protect Gulf shipping by escorting oil tankers in the region's waters. In 1987, the United States escorted Kuwaiti vessels that the Gulf state had reflagged with the US Stars and Stripes to allow the US Navy to legally protect them during the Tanker War, a facet of the Iran-Iraq war in which both sides attacked shipping. I stood on the bridge of the USS Fox, a destroyer, accompanying the first reflagged vessel, the MV Bridgeton, one of the world's largest tankers, which hit an underwater Iranian sea mine some 135 nautical miles north of the Strait of Hormuz. The explosion breached the outer hull of the Bridgeton and forward cargo tanks, spilling oily residue into the water. No one aboard the Bridgeton was hurt. The incident handed Iran a significant public relations victory on a silver platter. More importantly, it demonstrated that naval escorts provide at best limited protection unless the protecting power controls the waterway. It also showed that warships are potentially more vulnerable than the vessels they are protecting. The 413,000-deadweight-ton Bridgeton steamed under its own power to Dubai for repairs. Had the 8,000-ton Fox, rather than the Bridgeton, hit the mine, it would have likely suffered severe damage and potentially seen members of its crew killed or injured. The incident and the course of the current Iran war illustrate the pitfalls of any US attempt to wrest control of the strategic Strait of Hormuz from Iran.

The United States bombing of Kharg Island, Iran's foremost oil export terminal, suggests that President Donald Trump may realise that he has no good options in Iran. Without the bombing, any Trump declaration of victory would likely have rung hollow with critics comparing it to President George W. Bush's 2003 Mission Accomplished in Iraq speech, after which the war continued for another nine years. Even so, Mr. Trump faces unpalatable choices that don't include the falling silent of the guns at a time of his choosing, despite the death and destruction wrought by the US and Israeli militaries.

James discusses the Iran war on RTHK.

The question is not if but when US President Donald Trump will unilaterally declare victory in the Iran war. The problem is that it takes three to tango. Both Israel and Iran would have to agree, and both have little interest in ending the war any time soon.

Iran has named Mojtaba Khamenei as its new supreme leader after the killing of his father, Ali Khamenei, in a US-Israeli strike — a move that could reshape the country's political future and its relations with Washington. The appointment comes despite strong opposition from Donald Trump, who had previously said the younger Khamenei would be “unacceptable” as Iran's next leader and suggested the United States should have a say in the succession. So, who exactly is Mojtaba Khamenei? And with Washington openly opposed to his leadership, could his appointment push tensions between Iran and the US to an even more dangerous level? On The Big Story, Hongbin Jeong speaks with Dr James M. Dorsey, Adjunct Senior Fellow at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University, to find out more.

Iran may have played into Israel and the United States' hands by firing drones and missiles at Azerbaijan and Turkey. Beyond risking sucking Turkey and Azerbaijan into the Iran war, the attacks could boost efforts to spark ethnic uprisings in Iran, even though US President Donald Trump, in an apparent 180-degree turn-around, this weekend threw cold water on initial Israeli and US plans to encourage ethnic insurgencies. Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, Mr. Trump said he had “ruled out” encouraging Kurdish groups from entering the fight with the Iranian government. “They're willing to go in, but we really—I've told them I don't want them to go in. The war is complicated enough without having, getting the Kurds involved,” Mr. Trump said. It was unclear if Mr. Trump's about face would force Israel, to fall into line. Israel has maintained long-standing relations with Iranian Kurdish and other armed ethnic groups in the Islamic Republic. The Iranian attack came as US and Israeli warplanes targeted military, security, and intelligence bases in a swath of land that stretches from the Azerbaijan-Iran border to Kurdish-populated areas near Iraq. Twenty per cent of all bombings have focussed on Kurdish and Azeri areas of Iran. Mr. Trump's turn-around appeared to be at odds with the pattern of Israeli and US bombings, which potentially create an environment conducive to ethnic insurgencies, starting with Kurdish and Azeri-populated areas. The bombing campaign “suggests the (Israeli and US) intent is to facilitate Iranian government loss of control in restive regions of Iran,” insisted Robert S. Ford, a former US ambassador to Algeria and Syria.

James discusses the Iran war, oil, Yemen on Radio Islam.

The Middle East tinderbox was struck ablaze on Saturday when the US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran. How might this conflict shape the power dynamics in Tehran as well as the broader region? BFM 89.9 discusses the stakes at play with Middle East expert Dr. James M. Dorsey.

Iran is challenging the might-is-right cornerstone of Donald Trump's foreign policy by refusing to bow to the US president's demands and fighting a war that within hours expanded across the Middle East. In doing so, Iran is going where no other country, including Venezuela and NATO ally Denmark has been willing to go when threatened with military force if they did not accept Mr. Trump's demands. Iran was betting that Mr. Trump would want a quick strike against Iran that would not entangle the United States in a protracted conflict and potentially force it to put boots on the ground. It was a miscalculation. Nevertheless, it was a risk Iran willingly shouldered. Joined by Israel in the attack on Iran, Mr. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu have suggested that regime change was the attack's goal. Mr. Trump has acknowledged that achieving that goal could involve protracted hostilities in which US troops may be killed. Mr. Khamenei was killed on the first day of the US and Israeli strikes. So were other officials, including the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Gen. Mohammad Pakpour, who was appointed by Mr. Khamenei. Even so, it would be premature for the United States and Israel to declare victory. Mr. Khamenei's death does not mean the collapse of the regime.

James discusses on Radio Islam the Iranian-US standoff, Iran's ethnic challenges and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Israel.

James discusses on BFM 89.9 the prospects for a diplomatic path to prevent US-Iranian tensions from boiling over.

James discusses on Radio Islam the prospects of a US military attack on Iran, the fallout of the dispute between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Africa, and Israeli support for the UAE in its Washington-focused war of words with the kingdom.

James discusses on CNA938 what this week's Board of Peace meeting in Washington means for Gaza and US President Donald Trump's ambition to control, if not replace the United Nations as the worlds' foremost peacemaker.

It's crunch time when Donald Trump's Board of Peace meets in Washington this week to finalise the implementation of the second phase of the president's Gaza ceasefire plan.

James discusses on Radio Islam this week's anxiously awaited White House meeting between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, next week's Board of Peace gathering in Washington focussed on Gaza, and the future of US-Israeli military relations.

On this edition of Parallax Views, returning guest James M. Dorsey, independent journalist and scholar at The Turbulent World Substack, breaks down the latest developments shaping the Middle East. We start with the high-stakes U.S.-Iran talks, where Dorsey explains the deep mistrust between Washington and Tehran, the obstacles to a deal, and why, despite tensions, he doubts Trump seeks a full-scale war. We explore what military action against Iran could mean for the Gulf States, Turkey, and the Caucasus, and the broader question of regional stability. Next, we analyse Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington, D.C., his fraught relationship with Trump, and what's at stake politically for Israel as elections approach. Dorsey explains what Netanyahu likely seeks from the former president on Iran and why mutual distrust may be defining their interactions. In the latter half, we dive into the rising rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, examining shifts in Saudi regional strategy, the UAE's backing of militias and separatists, and the potential dangers this poses across North Africa, especially in Sudan. We also discuss the UAE's growing closeness with Israel, Qatar's positioning in the Saudi-UAE rivalry, and what these dynamics reveal about the future of Middle East geopolitics.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's meeting this week with US President Donald Trump could determine war and peace in Iran and Gaza and the immediate fate of the West Bank.

James discusses the US-Iranian talks, the Saudi-United Arab Emirates conflict, and the killing in Libya of Seif al-Islam on Radio Islam.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has some advice for US negotiators in advance of Friday's US-Iranian talks in Oman aimed at avoiding a military conflagration that could spark a regional war in the Middle East. Speaking to Al Jazeera, Mr. Fidan suggested that the US tackle one contentious issue at a time rather than seek a package deal that addresses all US demands, starting with curbs on Iran's nuclear programme. “My advice to our American friends is, close the files one by one. Start with nuclear. Close it. Then the other, then the other, then the other. If you put them as a package, it will be very difficult for our Iranian friends to digest and really process it,” Mr. Fidan said days after talks with his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi. Turkey, together with Qatar, has played a key role in attempts to avert a military conflagration as US President Donald Trump, threatening to attack Iran if the talks fail, amasses an armada in the Middle East.

A US military intervention in Iran doesn't just risk exposing Gulf states and Israel to Iranian retaliation. It also raises the spectre of a regional war spilling over into the Caucasus. With no US or Israeli targets within its borders, Iran has threatened to retaliate against Israel and US military bases in the Middle East, a threat directed at Gulf states and Israel rather than NATO member Turkey. While Iran is unlikely to attack Turkey's Incirlik Airbase that hosts the US military's 39th Air Base Wing, an uptick of ethnic nationalism, particularly among Azeris, a Turkic group who account from anywhere between 16 and 24 per cent of the Iranian population, could draw Iran's neighbours, Turkey and Azerbaijan, into a wider regional conflict on the principle of ‘you may not want war but war wants you.' Militant supporters of Israel in the United States, like the influential, far-right, Philadelphia-based Middle East Forum appear willing to shoulder the risk. The Forum has advocated a US targeting of Azeri units of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps or IRGC, which the Forum describes as the Guards' most brutal. The IRGC is among the prime targets that the US military has presented to US President Donald Trump.

Disarmament of Hamas is the next battleground on which Israel and the group will each attempt to shape Gaza's future in their mould. The prospects don't bode well for ordinary Gazans with US President Donald Trump's Board of Peace's cards stacked in Israel's favour. That is not to deny that Hamas either needs to disarm or be integrated into a unified Palestinian police force that maintains law and order in the Strip. Without disarmament as well as an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the introduction of an international stabilisation force, relief and rehabilitation efforts will remain hampered, and reconstruction will not get off the ground. The problem is that the Board's implementation of the second phase of Mr. Trump's Gaza ceasefire plan is off to a problematic start.

James discusses Iran, Gaza, and the Saudi-United Arabs Emirates dispute in Radio Islam's Middle East Report.

James discusses US President Donald Board's Board of Peace, Iran, Greenland, and the world order with podcaster J. G. Michael @ViewsParallax.

James discusses Donald Trump's Board of peace, the Saudi-UAE dispute, and Iran on Radio Islam.

James discusses the Board of Peace and Gaza on RTHK's Backchat programme. To read the transcript, go to https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/the-board-of-peace-creating-a-new

[BFM 89.9] Over the past week, US President Donald Trump has floated a proposal he calls a Board of Peace, a new international body linked to Gaza that would sit outside the United Nations framework. Dr James M. Dorsey, Adjunct Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies tells BFM 89.9 if this is a workable plan. To read the transcript, go to https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/board-of-peace-a-trump-dream-or-reality

James discusses Iran and Greenland

Images of the mass anti-government protests in Iran may be reminiscent of the popular revolt that toppled the Shah in 1979, but that is where the similarities stop. Based in Tehran at the time, I covered the revolution that was the Islamic Republic's midwife. employing the kind of violence Iran's current Islamist leaders are capable of. That is not say that hardline supporters of the Shah and senior military commanders rejected a brutal crackdown. On the contrary. Men like Ardeshir Zahedi, the Shah's influential son-in-law and storied ambassador to the United States, Major General Manouchehr Khosrodad, the founder and commander of the army's airborne wing, Nematollah Nassiri, the head of Savak, Iran's feared intelligence agency, Major General Reza Naji, the tough Isfahan martial law commander, and Tehran police chief and martial law administrator Mehdi Rahimi had little compunction about killing thousands to salvage the Shah's regime. They made that clear at a dinner hosted by Mr. Zahedi.

Middle East Report by James M. Dorsey

James discusses US options and the latest developments in Iran on Az News

James discusses the latest developments in Iran on BFM 89.9

Iranian protesters may find that they got more than they bargained for if US President Donald Trump acts on his threat to intervene militarily in support of protesters. Mr. Trump's threat may have emboldened Iranians to continue taking to the streets, assuming that the world's most powerful leader has their back. Many protesters and some US officials believe that US airstrikes would undermine the morale and cohesion of Iran's security forces and spark defections and refusals to obey orders to crack down on the demonstrators. The risk is that striking regime targets could evolve into an attempt to topple the regime as advocated by Israeli leaders and Republican hardliners.

James discusses Yemen on TRT World

Iran has been facing widespread unrest since Dec 28, with economic hardship sparking protests across the country and policymakers attempting reforms amid US sanctions and a faltering currency. Dr James M. Dorsey, Adjunct Senior Fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, shares with BFM 89.9 his analysis on the situation.

James discusses the apprehension of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on PTV.

James discusses this week's Middle East developments on Radio Islam

If Israel and the United Arab Emirates have their way, 2026 promises to be a year of further fracturing of the Greater Middle East. Israel's strategy is to balkanise, if not break up states, while the UAE's approach is to capitalise on opportunities failed states offer, much as Iran did with its support for militant non-state actors in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, and the toppled regime of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu confidante Ron Dermer positioned Evangelicals five year ago as Israel's most reliable supporters, more reliable than American Jews. Today, Mr Dermer is gone. He resigned in November as strategic affairs minister and the prime minister's point man on Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran. Gone too is Evangelical reliability with many young Evangelicals and members of President Donald Trump's Make America Great Again or MAGA support base rejecting the long-standing notion that the United States and Israel's national interests overlap. “This train has left the station. It's not coming back, especially with the younger generation,” said Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, an Evangelical conspiracy theorist, who during the Covid epidemic compared masks to the yellow Star of David Nazis forced Jews to wear. Ms. Taylor Greene later apologised for her comment. Andrew Kolvet, a close associate of Charlie Kirk, the assassinated founder of Turning Point USA, an influential far-right youth organisation that has become a platform for the airing of differences in Mr. Trump's base suggests that “Israel has become a symbolic battle about: What does ‘America First' really mean?” Mr. Kolvet has taken over many of the Turning Point duties of Mr. Kirk, who was killed in September while addressing a gathering of the organisation.

President Donald Trump has used a White House Hannukah celebration to highlight the Israel lobby's reduced influence as a result of US public opinion, including young Evangelicals, increasingly questioning the perceived communality of American and Israeli national interests and turning critical of Israel's Gaza war conduct. In a twist of irony, the influence of the primary pro-Israel lobbying institution, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee or AIPAC, and mainstream Jewish American organisations, has also declined because of Mr. Trump's populism that has polarised America by targeting legacy institutions who traditionally favoured a more consensual political and media landscape. That landscape is further ripped apart by the war between the pro- and anti-Israel Make America Great Again factions.

Russia and Israel share a common problem: much of the international community views them as regional brutes and occupiers of other people's lands. To address the problem, both use fog to gain lost ground in their information wars. In sports, the difference is that Russia is gaining ground, Israel isn't. The reason is that Russia plays offense, while Israel, unlike in kinetic battlefields, plays defence, attempting to taint its detractors as anti-Semites.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, pressured by the United States and Israel, could make a move as bold as his predecessor, Anwar Sadat, and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed did in when they recognised Israel. Only this time, Mr. Al-Sisi would be going out on a limb in a far more emotionally charged environment after more than two years of Israeli destruction of Gaza and the killing of 70,000 Palestinians. US President Donald Trump and Israel Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu are pushing for a meeting of the Egyptian and Israeli leaders when they travel to the United States this month for separate talks with the US president.

The question is not if, but when US-Israel relations will reset. The writing is already on the wall as Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu prepares for an end-of-the-year visit to Washington, his fifth since US President Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office in January. The reset is unlikely to be sudden or in one big bang. Instead, it will probably be gradual but consequential.

James discusses this week's Middle East developments on Radio Islam.

US President Donald Trump is turning the screws on Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu as policy towards Israel and the Middle East emerges as a main faultline in the president's Make America Great Again (MAGA) support base. In recent days, Mr. Trump has pressured Mr. Netanyahu to abide by the Gaza ceasefire, facilitate the surrender of trapped Hamas fighters, refrain from provocative attacks in Syria, and engage in negotiations with Lebanon. Throwing Mr. Netanyahu a bone, Mr. Trump has sought to mollify him by pushing Israeli President Isaac Herzog to pardon the prime minister, who is on trial in three cases in which he is charged with corruption and/or breach of trust. Mr. Trump's pressure on Mr. Netanyahu, exerted in a phone conversation with the prime minister on Monday, has produced initial results.

There is a straight line that connects Osama bin Laden's destruction of multiculturalism with his 9/11 attacks 24 years ago to today's mainstreaming of racism, particularly in the form of Islamophobia and anti-Semitism.

Divide and conquer has become Israel's main operating principle in a world in which it stands condemned for its war conduct, impunity, and intransigence, and is increasingly isolated. Israel applies the principle whether it is in Gaza, Syria, its uphill battle to gain the high ground in its information wars, or its efforts to encourage Jewish immigration. In Israel's latest application of the principle, it sees an opportunity to capitalise on Christian assertions that their African brethren are the primary victims of Muslim aggression in what amounts to a religion-driven conflict. A recent spate of kidnappings for ransom by criminal gangs and jihadists in Nigeria, a country with swaths of ungoverned land, and long-standing violence driven as much by religion and ethnicity as by access to land and water and crime, has fuelled the assertions.

When Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visited Washington this week, he shifted multiple paradigms. In an increasingly multilateral world, Mr. Bin Salman, backed by US President Donald Trump, suggested that the kingdom is claiming its place at the table as a geopolitical and geoeconomic powerhouse. US support gives (Mr. Bin Salman) more room to negotiate with big powers—US, China, and even Israel—on his own terms,” said analyst Hesham Alghannam. Seen through a geopolitical lens, Mr. Bin Salman's commercial dealings are about more than diversifying the kingdom's oil-dependent economy and turning it into a 21st-century, cutting-edge knowledge society. In Mr. Bin Salman's mind, the dealings are about putting Saudi Arabia on near-par with the United States, China, and India in a world that is multilateral rather than bipolar, with the US and China as the dominant powers, or tripolar, with India eventually added into the mix.

James discusses this week's latest Middle East developments on Radio Islam.

Israel's US support base is narrowing. Coming at Israel from different directions, US President Donald Trump, increasingly critical Evangelicals, until recently a rock-solid Israeli support base, and influential Make America Great Again torchbearers are chipping away at Israel's standing.