The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer

US President Donald J. Trump's acknowledgement of Israel's throttling of humanitarian aid reaching Gaza is more than a rebuke of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's denials of starvation in the Strip. It also signals the president's temporary retreat from grandiose visions of reshaping the Middle East. Mr. Trump's switching of gears to focus on Gaza's humanitarian crisis was likely prompted by images of Palestinians, particularly babies and children, emaciated by Israel's refusal to allow the unfettered flow of humanitarian aid into the Strip. Even so, the president's focus also serves to entrench Israeli control and stymie a brewing generational revolt in his support base and the recognition of Palestine as a state by key US allies, including France, Britain, and Canada.

A far-right pro-Israel think tank has put flesh on suspicions that Israel is seeking to weaken the government of President Ahmed al-Sharaa, if not break up Syria as a nation state. The Philadelphia-based Middle East Forum revived a years-old call for a “freedom corridor” that would link the Druze community in southern Syria with the Kurds in the north. The Forum's call came as senior Israeli and Syrian officials negotiate security arrangements aimed at staving off further Israeli military strikes and limiting interference in Syria's domestic affairs.

James discusses on aNews mounting pressure on Israel to allow unfettered humanitarian aid into Gaza and to end the devastating war.

US-mediated talks between Israel and Syria serve as a bellwether for the extent to which Israel can reshape the Middle East and impose its will on the region. They also are likely to indicate the degree to which US and Israeli interests diverge in Syria. Syrian Foreign Minister Assad al-Shaiibani and Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, a confidante of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, focussed this week on security arrangements in southern Syria in a round of talks in Paris chaired by Tom Barrack, the US Ambassador to Turkey and the Trump administration's Syria envoy. The talks were the highest-level meeting between officials of the two countries in 25 years and the first since the latest clashes in the southern Syrian city of As-Suwayda between the country's Druze minority, Bedouin militias, and Syrian security forces, and Israel's bombing of military targets, including the defence ministry, in the capital Damascus. The London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights put the clashes' death toll at 1,399 people, 196 of whom were summarily executed. Mr. Netanyahu dispatched Mr. Dermer to Paris following several meetings in Azerbaijan between Mr. Al-Shaibani and the prime minister's national security advisor, Tzachi Hangebi, that fuelled Israeli and US hopes that security arrangements could be a first step toward Syrian recognition of Israel. The Paris talks are likely to establish whether Israel can dictate to President Ahmed al-Sharaa where in Syria his military can operate and the degree to which Israel can successfully project itself as the protector of Syrian minorities, such as the Druze, a secretive monotheistic group based In Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and Israel, and the Kurds in the north.

Instability Spreads As Israels Military Campaigns Escalate_BFM 23072025 by James M. Dorsey

A just-published report on Israel and the United States' interception of Iranian missiles during the 12-day Israel-Iran war highlighted the Jewish states' dependence on US military support. The report by the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) concluded that US-operated Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence or THAAD air defence systems, produced by Lockheed Martin, accounted for almost half of all interceptions of Iranian missiles fired at Israel during the war. The US positioned a second of its seven THAAD systems and crew in Israel in April. The US deployed the first system last October. A THAAD battery, one of the United States' most powerful anti-missile systems, typically deploys with 95 soldiers, six truck-mounted launchers, 48 interceptors (eight per launcher), and a mobile radar. The system intercepts incoming projectiles from up to 200 kilometres away with kinetic energy, in a process often referred to as “hit-to-kill,” or “kinetic kill.” The Institute's report suggested that Israel depended on THAAD because it lacked sufficient interceptors for its Arrow anti-ballistic missile system. The United States expended more than a year's worth of THAAD interceptor production in the Israel-Iran war at a cost of US$12.7 million per interceptor, or US$1.7 billion for the approximately 100 interceptors fired during the war. "As a result, the United States used up about 14 percent of all its THAAD interceptors, which would take three to eight years to replenish at current production rates,' the report said. The Institute's Iran Projectile Tracker reported that the United States and Israel had successfully neutralised 201 of the 574 missiles fired by Iran during the war, with 316 landing in unpopulated areas. Israel has admitted that Iranian missiles had pierced its air defence systems, striking at military targets and residential areas. In a twist of irony, Iran increased its successful hit rate by one to four per cent in incidents when they were confronted by THAAD interceptors, the Institute's report said, based on analysis of video shot by Amman-based photographer Zaid Abbadi. Even so, the Institute argued that air defence support of Israel in the war served US interests beyond coming to the aid of an ally. "This strong support of a US partner may also reinforce US. deterrence against Russia and China," the report said. What the report did not say is that it also demonstrated the degree to which Israel depends on the United States for its defence, despite the ruthless prowess of the Israeli military and the sophistication of the country's military-industrial complex.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu appears determined to depopulate Gaza by hook or by crook, even if he has bowed to US pressure by agreeing to a reduced military presence in the Strip as part of a temporary ceasefire. The reduced presence, involving a withdrawal from the Morag Corridor that separates Rafah from the rest of Gaza, would complicate Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz's plans to corral hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in a tent camp on the flattened ruins of the Strip's southernmost city close to the Egyptian border. That hasn't stopped Israel from seeking to depopulate Gaza by ensuring that the Strip is unliveable and uninhabitable in the hope that Palestinians will ‘voluntarily' relocate to a third country.

Soccer has long been a tightly controlled double-edged sword for Middle Eastern autocrats. On the one hand, autocrats sought to harness the sport's popularity that evokes the kind of passion in a soccer crazy part of the world that was traditionally reserved for religion. On the other hand, soccer constituted one of the few arenas in which youth could vent frustration and anger. Soccer's disruptive potential was evident in 2011 when militant fans played a key role in the Arab popular revolts that toppled the leaders of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen. With world soccer body FIFA disregarding violations of its rules that ban government interference in sports and restrict ownership of premier league clubs to one per owner, governments sought to control the sport's disruptive power by owning several top clubs or ensuring that individuals with close ties to the regime controlled them. Fifteen years later, autocratic perceptions of soccer's double-edged sword may be changing. A confluence of developments has, for the first time, prompted Middle Eastern autocrats to contemplate foreign ownership of domestic clubs.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar celebrated this week a “diplomatic victory” by delaying European sanctions against the Jewish state. It's a victory that could prove to be pyrrhic. That is, if EU foreign ministers, increasingly critical of Israel's conduct in the Gaza war, put their money where their mouth is and make good on their threat to suspend the Jewish state's 25-year-old association agreement with the European Union because of its human rights violations.

The writing is on the wall. As Gaza ceasefire talks flail, if not fail for the umpteenth time, a series of vignettes tell the story of Israel's increasingly shrinking support base in the United States and Europe. Alarmingly for Israel, the vignettes reflect mounting criticism of the Jewish state in US President Donald J. Trump's Make America Great Again and America First support base, as well as among European leaders. To be sure, Chirstian Zionists and pro-Israel Evangelicals remain an important segment of Mr. Trump's base. Similarly, European leaders have yet to put their money where their mouth is. Even so, failing to do so is becoming increasingly difficult. That realisation may be registering on Israeli radars. Not that it will change Israel's indefensible conduct of the Gaza war. Instead, Israel's response resembles Hans Brinker, the boy in Mary Mapes Dodge's 19th century children's novel, who puts his finger in a Dutch dike to prevent a major breach.

World soccer body FIFA's more than a decade-long refusal to implement meaningful reforms and adhere to its own principles, rules, and regulations is on public display. FIFA's response to past corruption scandals and willingness to award World Cup hosting rights to violators of the group's human rights standards illustrate the organisation's rejection of meaningful change that would hold the group accountable. So do FIFA's repeated, mostly cosmetic, reforms aimed at pacifying public and commercial clamouring for change. The scandals and disregard for FIFA's Human Rights Policy and Code of Conduct are “only the tip of football's problem iceberg. An extended troubleshooting list includes antiquated governance structures, growing financial imbalances, and inadequate safeguards for athletes, just to name some of the most pressing issues,” said law professor Jan Zglinski in a recent 26-page academic paper. Mr. Zglinski argues that, potentially, Europe, a leader in regulating sports, and particularly soccer, as a sector of the economy, could emerge as the sport's white knight.

Malaysia, unlike other perceived Muslim Brotherhood supporters such as Qatar and Turkey, has remained, by and large, in the shadows of the Middle East's information wars, despite the country's public support for Hamas. That may change if a recent report by the Philadelphia-based far-right, pro-Israel Middle East Forum is anything to go by.

What happens when you bring together three veteran foreign correspondents, each carrying decades of wisdom, scars, and tales from the world's most dangerous places?

A much-touted meeting between US President Donald J. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, their third encounter this year, apparently failed to move the needle on a Gaza ceasefire, despite both men expressing optimism that an agreement was only days away.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to meet US President Donald Trump at the White House on Monday. The talks come amid ongoing indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Doha, as efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza continue. James M. Dorsey, an adjunct senior fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, shares his analysis on whether Trump's push for a 60-day truce has a real shot.

If US President Donald J. Trump had his druthers, he would announce a Gaza ceasefire on Monday when Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu visits him in the Oval Office for the third time this year That may be easier said than done despite Mr. Netanyahu's endorsement of the latest US ceasefire proposal and Hamas's ‘positive' response. Mr. Netanyahu and Hamas have responded positively to the proposal, even though it doesn't bridge the most significant issue dividing them: whether to end the war and on what terms. Even so, neither Mr. Netanyahu nor Hamas wants to get on Mr. Trump's wrong side and shoulder the blame for another failure to get the guns to fall silent in the devastated Strip. Reading between the lines of the two parties' responses, the cracks are apparent. Nevertheless, the parties appear inclined to accept what amounts to cosmetic changes that paper over the gap in their positions, which have not narrowed.

Gaza, US military contractors, Trump, Syria , and much more

American contractors guarding aid distribution sites in Gaza are allegedly using live ammunition and stun grenades against Palestinians seeking food, according to the Associated Press. James M. Dorsey, from Singapore's S Rajaratnam School of International Studies weighs in.

Note: There's a little bit of crackle in the audio in this episode. Attempts were made to remove crackle as much as possible, but it remains at some point. Hopefully it does not pose too much of a problem for listening. https://jamesmdorsey.substack.com/p/israel-iran-ceasefire-fragility-israels On this edition of Parallax Views, James M. Dorsey of the Turbulent World Substack blog returns to reflect of the "ceasefire" between Israel and Iran. Dorsey argues this is not so much a ceasefire as a fragile halt of hostilities for the time being, or a pause. Dorsey notes that it's unclear how much of Iran's nuclear program has been damaged or salvaged by the Islamic Republic in light of the strikes. That, he says, is a big question right now. We then discuss Trump's relationship with the Gulf States and his evangelical Christian Zionist base. That poses an issue for Trump, Dorsey argues. $3.6 trillion are on the table from the Gulf States (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.) and they want the situation with Israel, Gaza, and Iran solved according to Dorsey. The tumult and fragility of the Middle East has become something of a headache for both the U.S. and the Gulf States. Dorsey argues the current talk of a Gaza ceasefire is a "Fata Morgana", or a mirage, an illusion. We delve into the different interests at work when it comes to the Gulf States and Israel, and how the relationship between Israel and certain Gulf States have changed from 2015 to now. He argues that the Gulf States' perceptions of Israel have changed. For one thing, the Saudi Arabia-Iran rapprochement means that the situation of Israel's unofficial alliance with the Saudis against Iran has changed. Moreover, Dorsey says that the defense doctrine of Israel has gone from deterrence to emasculation of perceived enemies and states within the region. This changes the dynamic between Israel and the Gulf States, at least in how the Gulf States perceive Israel. Which is to say that Gulf States are now perceiving Israel as aggressive leading to the question of, "Could we be next?" We then begin delving into some "odds and ends" in the conversation including: - Israel, Palestine, and the issue of the 1967 borders - The history of the U.S.-Iran relations and why they have been so tense - Pushing back on the "mad mullahs" narrative about the Islamic Republic of Iran - Trump's walking away from the JCPOA (the Iran nuclear deal) - Is Iran more likely to go nuclear after the latest strikes? - Biggest risk in the Middle East?: not tackling root problems; Israel's belief that it has the right to strikes whenever and wherever it wants against a perceived threat means a "law of the jungle" system in the Middle East and could become adopted by other states - Potential deal between Israel and Syria - The Abu Shabab clan in Gaza - Netanyahu's rejection of any Palestinian national aspirations and what informs it - And more! NOTE: Views of guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect all the views of J.G. Michael or the Parallax Views w/ J.G. Michael program

It's going to take more than the halt of Israeli-Iranian hostilities to replicate US President Donald J. Trump's success in Gaza, let alone leverage it into a paradigm-changing Saudi, Arab, and Muslim recognition of the Jewish state. It's not because of a lack of effort but because the assumptions underlying the push to end Israel's devastating 21-month-long assault on the Strip in response to Hamas' October 7, 2023, attack on Israel are problematic. Earlier this week, Mr. Trump asserted, “We think within the next week we're going to get a (Gaza) ceasefire.” Mr. Trump's prediction came amid increasing chatter about a possible long-evasive pause, if not a permanent halt, to the Israeli assault that has turned Gaza into a pile of rubble and sparked one of the world's worst humanitarian crises.

Iran has vowed to respond to any future US strikes by attacking American military bases in the Middle East, according to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in an address on Thursday- his first televised remarks since a ceasefire was reached between Iran and Israel. The 12-day war culminated in Iran's attack on a US base in Qatar, which is the largest in the region, after the US joined Israeli strikes. US intelligence assessments indicate that America's bunker-buster bomb and cruise missile strikes did not destroy the three Iranian nuclear sites on Sunday- despite Trump's remarks that the attack “completely and fully obliterated” the Islamic Republic's nuclear program. Analysts have warned that although the ceasefire is still intact, it is extremely fragile, with hopes for longer-term peace resting on potential negotiations between the US and Iran next week. “There may or may not be negotiations this week or talks this week between the United States and Iran, but nothing is going to get resolved and as a result you've got a very fragile ceasefire,” James M. Dorsey said in this week's Middle East Report

Don't hold your breath. US President Donald J. Trump's silencing of Iranian and Israeli guns is fragile at best. Speaking at a news conference on the sidelines of a NATO summit, Mr. Trump admitted as much. “Can it start again? I guess it can, maybe some day soon,” Mr Trump said. The fragility was built into the halt to the hostilities from the outset, starting with differences over whether the halt constituted a ceasefire. Iran rejects the notion of a ceasefire, even if it has agreed to halt the hostilities.

The Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD) hosted an award-winning journalist and scholar Dr. James M. Dorsey for a special Horizons Discussion on June 23rd, 2025. In conversation with Horizons Managing Editor Stefan Antić, Dorsey unpacked the lightning-fast escalation between Israel and Iran, the Trump administration's divided response, and the wider stakes for regional and great-power politics.

The targeted sites by the US attack on Iran are Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. Fordo is one of Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities, located underground in the southwest of Tehran. Natanz is another major enrichment site, which is located southeast of Tehran. Uranium had been enriched to up to 60 per cent purity at the site before Israeli strikes targeted parts of it.

Hamas' October 7, 2023, paradigm-shifting attack has prompted Israel to change its defense doctrine with devastating consequences for the Middle East. No longer satisfied with operating on the principle of deterrence, involving regular strikes against Hamas in Gaza and Lebanon, militant Palestinian groups in the West Bank, Yemen's Houthi rebels, Iranian targets in Syria and the Islamic Republic, and Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, Israel's new defense doctrine focuses on militarily emasculating its opponents. The new doctrine, focused on kinetic rather than negotiated solutions, has driven Israeli military operations since the Hamas attack broke a psychological barrier by successfully breaching Israeli defences and invading Israeli territory. Hamas and other Palestinians killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, in the attack. Israel's subsequent decimation of Hamas and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite militia and political movement, with little regard for the cost to innocent human lives, offered proof of concept for a strategy that involves killing top leaders and destroying military infrastructure based on the Jewish state's military and intelligence superiority. In addition to the devastation of Gaza in a bid to destroy Hamas militarily and politically and the weakening of Hezbollah, Israel has destroyed much of the Syrian military arsenal and infrastructure since the fall of President Bashar al-Assad. Now, it is targeting Iran's military command, missile and launcher arsenal, and nuclear facilities. “The unexpected degree of success…reduced Israeli wariness about launching a similar campaign against Iran, despite expectations that a severe Iranian response might still be forthcoming,” said Michael Koplow, chief policy officer at the Israel Policy Forum. Alarmingly, Israel's newly conceived dominance-driven military assertiveness has fueled public anger and widespread anticipation of war across the Middle East.

In this timely commentary, award-winning journalist and scholar James M. Dorsey unpacks the deeper implications of the recent Iran-Israel escalation. From regional power dynamics to global repercussions, he offers sharp, incisive insights into what this confrontation reveals—and what might come next.

Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is caught between a rock and a hard place. He risks being doomed if he does and doomed if he doesn't. Despite causing significant damage and Israeli casualties with its missile barrages, Iran is incapable of winning a war against Israel.

The Embassy of the United States in Tel Aviv was temporarily closed after the building sustained minor damage following an Iranian missile strike overnight, US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee confirmed on Monday. Though no injuries or casualties were reported among US diplomatic staff, videos surfaced on the internet showing the consulate building impacted by the concussive force of nearby explosions Our US Embassy in Israel and Consulate will officially remain closed today as shelter in place still in effect. Some minor damage from concussions of Iranian missile hits near Embassy Branch in Tel Aviv but no injuries to US personnel," Huckabee wrote in a post on X.

Is Israel against a negotiated resolution to Iran's nuclear programme_TRT 16062025 by James M. Dorsey

Beyond shifting the paradigm of Middle Eastern geopolitics, Israel's dramatic strikes against Iran are likely to shape the outcome of a battle within the Trump administration over US policy towards the region. The battle, with Israel at its core, pits Make America Great Again proponents against pro-Israel figures in the administration, with Iran constituting a major battlefield. Putting Iran on the front burner, Israel's attacks have presented US President Donald J. Trump with his most serious foreign policy conundrum to date. Mr. Trump's problem is foreign and domestic.

Iran has vowed a strong response to an Israeli airstrike on its nuclear program early Friday. James M. Dorsey, senior fellow at Singapore's S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, explains how Tehran is expected to react following Israel's major military offensive targeting its nuclear and military sites.

To say Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is a highly controversial figure in Israeli politics is, at best, an understatement. Yet, his notion of a forever war against Palestinians resonates with a significant segment of Israeli public opinion, despite differences over strategy, tactics, and the prioritisation of the war's goals.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu may be grasping at straws in his hope that US President Donald J. Trump will continue to back his refusal to end the Gaza war and resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The prime minister is placing a risky bet that Mr. Trump's recent suggestion that he is focussing on Iran nuclear negotiations, China, and Russia rather than Gaza means that the continued rise of Make America Great Again protagonists within his administration will not shift the president's attitude towards the war. Speaking about his feud with billionaire Elon Musk, Mr. Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, "Honestly, I've been so busy working on China, working on Russia, working on Iran... I'm not thinking about Elon Musk.” By implication, Mr. Trump suggested that he was also not thinking of Gaza by not mentioning the war as part of his agenda. To be sure, by doing so, Mr. Trump was allowing Mr. Netanyahu to continue the war. Nevertheless, Mr. Netanyahu could be on shaky ground with pro-Israel figures in Mr. Trump's administration losing battles to Make America Great Again proponents.

Israel's throttling of aid for Gaza is as much about weaponizing food and other essential goods as it is about eventually installing a post-war Palestinian administration empathetic to Israeli concerns. Similarly, Israel's refusal to end the war intends to create space for an alternative to Hamas to emerge as the group's popularity in Gaza hits rock bottom. So is Israel's sidelining of the United Nations, despite its decades of experience in delivering aid to Gaza and extensive infrastructure in the Strip. An outspoken Palestinian American Hamas critic who lost 33 relatives in the Gaza war, Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, believes that Israel is following the example of the United States in Iraq, where it funded and trained Awakening Councils to counter Al-Qaeda.

Critics have long argued that Israel's 58-year-long occupation of Palestinian lands conquered in the 1967 Middle East war has brutalised Israeli society. Israel's 20-month-old assault on Gaza and the Israeli public's attitudes towards Gazan Palestinians serve as Exhibit A of the degree of brutalisation. So does last week's pummelling of two Palestinian public bus drivers by militantly racist fans of soccer club Beitar Jerusalem, a far-right darling, after a Palestinian soccer player, Zaki Ahmed, secured the 2025 Israel State Cup title for his team, Hapoel Be'er Sheva.

President Trump's Gulf Yatla-Indian Futures 26052025 by James M. Dorsey

The Trump and Netanyahu administrations may diverge on immediate issues, including Iran, Gaza, and Syria, but are weighing a long-term strategy to strengthen Israel militarily while making it less dependent on the United States.

This week, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu accelerated the Jewish state's travels towards international pariah status by declaring that the Gaza war aims to expel Gazan Palestinians from their homeland. Mr. Netanyahu added resettlement of Gaza's 2.1 million Palestinians to his war goals after earlier adopting as official Israeli policy a plan to move Gazans out of the Strip first put forward by US President Donald J. Trump in February. Earlier, Mr. Netanyahu insisted that he would only end the Gaza war once the Israeli military has destroyed Hamas or if the group agrees to disarm and send its leadership and fighters into exile. By making Mr. Trump's plan a war goal Mr. Netanyahu has officially changed the nature of the century-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Mr. Trump's plan envisions Palestinians being resettled in Egypt, Jordan, and elsewhere so that Gaza could be turned into a high-end real estate development. The international community has virtually unanimously condemned his plan. Many charge that it would amount to ethnic cleansing and violate international law.

European members of the world soccer body FIFA staged a dramatic walkout at the world governing body's congress in Paraguay when President Gianni Infantino arrived late earlier this month. The Europeans accused Mr. Infantino of prioritising his personal political interests by attributing greater importance to meetings with US President Donald J. Trump in Qatar, the host of the 2022 World Cup, than to FIFA's highest decision-making body. Mr. Infantino was part of Mr. Trump's extended entourage on the president's three-nation Gulf tour, which also included visits to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. With their walkout, the Europeans highlighted a core problem with global sports governance that has dogged FIFA, the International Olympic Committee, and virtually all other global, regional, and national sports associations for decades: the insistence on the fiction that sports and politics are separate.

The winds didn't just blow hot when Donald J. Trump recently touched down in Qatar on the first visit ever to the Gulf state by a sitting US president, which generated deals worth US$s1.2 trillion. They also blew cold, chilled by a long-standing, Israel-inspired campaign aimed to sully Qatar's reputation.

Donald J. Trump and the American economy are two beneficiaries of the president's Gulf road show. So are the Gulf states, Syria, and Make America Great Again supporters within Mr. Trump's administration. In less than 24 hours in the kingdom, Mr. Trump received a standing ovation from Arab leaders and hundreds of thousands poured into the streets of Syrian towns and cities to celebrate his lifting of long-standing crippling sanctions—a rare achievement for an American president. On the surface, Syrians, Saudis, and Israel critics have much to celebrate, including Syrians' prospects for reconstruction, Gulf states' defense, technology, and aviation mega deals with the United States, and seemingly upgraded Gulf relations with the US that potentially put them more on par with Israel. Even so, Mr. Trump has yet to pass the litmus test on whether, how much, and what history he wrote on his Gulf tour, packaged in pomp and circumstance.

Syria could be the Middle East's next exploding powder keg.

Alarm bells went off in Jerusalem and pro-Israel circles in Washington when US President Donald J. Trump this week announced a truce in America's Red Sea tanker war with Yemen's Houthi rebels that failed to take Israeli interests into account. Mr. Trump's announcement of a deal that protects US assets and international shipping but leaves space for continued Houthi targeting of Israel suggested that the president and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu differed on multiple issues, including Yemen, Gaza, and Iran.

US President Donald J. Trump and Hamas have separately opened a Pandora's Box that could fuel Middle Eastern fires for years to come. Hamas did so when it unleashed Israel's assault on Gaza with its October 7, 2023, attack on Israel that killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians. With more than 50,000 dead and tens of thousands wounded and/or maimed for life, Palestinians have paid a stark price. Israel's assault has devastated the Strip and opened the door to Israeli reoccupation 20 years after the Jewish state withdrew its forces from the territory. Mr. Trump played his part when he called in February during Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's first visit to Washington this year for resettling Gaza's 2.3 million Palestinians elsewhere and turning the Strip into a high-end luxury real estate development. In doing so, Mr. Trump allowed Israel to adopt a plan long envisioned by ultra-nationalists but not the general public as its official policy. Now, the Pandora's Box could come home to haunt Mr. Trump as he prepares to visit the Gulf next week.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's embrace of the global far-right faces a difficult choice. The question for Mr. Netanyahu is whether to maintain Israel's boycott of Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD), the country's second-largest political party, and Austria's Freedom Party (FPÖ) amid an escalating feud between the Trump administration and Germany over attitudes toward the far right.

Algeria may be the latest target in efforts to garner further Arab recognition of the Jewish state, despite its Gaza war conduct and rejection of Palestinian national aspirations. To that end, a Philadelphia-based far-right pro-Israeli organisation, the Middle East Forum, has put Algeria in its crosshairs in an apparent attempt to build pressure on the North African state to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. Algeria would be a prize catch.

Netanyahu hardens his position despite pressure to lift the Gaza blockade by James M. Dorsey

The coming days will tell whether it's crunch time for Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. The litmus test will be whether US President Donald J. Trump forces Mr. Netanyahu to lift his almost two-months-long blocking of the flow of humanitarian aid into war-ravaged Gaza.

Betar, the far-right youth movement of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's Likud party, is happy to help US President Donald J. Trump curtail pro-Palestinian speech and academic freedoms. That has mainstream American Jews fear that the Trump administration's crackdown on democratic freedoms of speech, assembly, and academia will fuel anti-Semitism rather than enhance their security.

This week's Gazan anti-Hamas protests demanding an end to the war could prove to be a double-edged sword. There is no doubt that Gazans want to see an end to the further devastation of their already war-ravaged Strip, the killing of more than 50,000 primarily civilian Palestinians, and Israel's blocking of the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza, including food and medical supplies. Similarly, there is little doubt that Hamas's popularity in Gaza has hit rock bottom, which is not to say that Gazans absolve Israel, the United States, and the international community of responsibility for their desperate plight or oppose armed resistance against occupation. A mere six per cent of Gazans polled in January by the Palestine-based Institute for Social and Economic Progress wanted to see Hamas in power once the war ended. Only 5.3 per cent would vote for Hamas in an election.

Hamas has Israel where it wants it. The group's insistence that ending the war be part of any ceasefire deal and refusal to disarm strengthens its position. To be sure, Israel has severely weakened Hamas militarily. To be sure, Israel has severely weakened Hamas militarily. Moreover, Hamas barely scores double digits in Gaza opinion polls. Hamas may no longer be able to organize an attack on the scale of its October 7, 2023, assault on Israel in which some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, were killed. Even so, Hamas still has a de facto presence in much of Gaza. Moreover, based on-19th century Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz's principle of “war as a continuation of politics by other means," Hamas is scoring points in what amounts to a war of attrition as Israel relentlessly batters the Strip.