Making Sense

It's only been a little less than a month, but the economic and financial fallout from the Iran conflict is already taking shape as we search for that point of no return. Sentiment has dropped, economic activity is threatened, even stocks are now in correction territory across the board. While central bankers especially over in Europe are in full-blown inflation panic, it's a much different story emerging from the real economy. This thing is quickly taking on all the characteristics of a full-blown oil shock. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre----------------------------------------------------------------------------------With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. To watch a replay of our webinar, click below. https://youtube.com/live/dkgSJvjWs5M?feature=shareTo take advantage of our limited-time Eurodollar University subscription offer to get access to all EDU materials, reports, and data, visit the link below:https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offer----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Many top European bankers did not do themselves any favors when pressed on the private credit bust, preferring to hide behind semantics or deflect at every chance. One who stood out was Deutsch Bank's vice chair of global macro who bluntly stated if it wasn't for Iran the private credit crisis would be all anyone would be talking about right now. For whatever the political spin among the rest of them, European bank balance sheets don't lie. Wait until you see what they've been up to. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. To watch a replay of our webinar, click below. https://youtube.com/live/dkgSJvjWs5M?feature=shareTo take advantage of our limited-time Eurodollar University subscription offer to get access to all EDU materials, reports, and data, visit the link below:https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offer----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Think private credit fears are overblown? Think again, says Deutschehttps://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/think-private-credit-fears-are-overblown-think-again-says-deutsche-20260327-p5zj5nPrivate Credit Jitters Put European Banking Chiefs on Defensehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-19/private-credit-jitters-put-european-banking-chiefs-on-defenseECB to Start Fresh Checks on Banks' Private Credit Exposureshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-24/ecb-to-start-fresh-checks-on-banks-exposure-to-private-creditGerman Business Outlook Sinks as Iran Puts Recovery ‘on Ice'https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-25/german-business-outlook-sinks-as-iran-war-puts-recovery-on-icehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The oil shock has moved way beyond merely being a price problem. The blockage at Hormuz has already created a very real physical shortage of fuel across much of Asia, and it's now threatening to hit Europe according to the CEO of Shell Energy. It's only been about four weeks but we're seeing major disruptions already, from Australia to South Korea, India, Egypt. Among the hardest hit is the Philippines. There are reports today some airlines are being told to plan for rationing fuel in a few places. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Australia Fuel Crunch Expands to Hundreds of Gas Stationshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-24/australia-fuel-shortages-expand-to-hundreds-of-service-stationsSecuring Australia's fuel supplyhttps://www.energy.gov.au/news/securing-australias-fuel-supplyEgypt mandates new closing time for malls and cafes to curb energy usehttps://www.egyptindependent.com/egypt-mandates-new-closing-time-for-malls-and-cafes-to-curb-energy-use/India Turns to Dirty Fuels to Fight Crippling Supply Squeezehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-12/india-turns-to-dirty-fuels-to-fight-off-worst-supply-disruption-mmnfhzzsMarcos promises 'flow of oil' as Philippines declares energy emergencyhttps://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3ex8ez3717oAirline boss flags possible fuel rationing in Philippines as supplies dwindlehttps://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3347804/airline-boss-flags-possible-fuel-rationing-philippines-supplies-dwindleSigns of Jet Fuel Hoarding Emerge in Asia on Iran Oil Shockhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-25/signs-of-jet-fuel-hoarding-emerge-in-asia-after-iran-oil-shockShell Boss Warns Europe Is Next After Asia Suffers Fuel Squeezehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-24/shell-boss-warns-europe-is-next-after-asia-suffers-fuel-squeezeOil giants raise the alarm over energy shortages as Iran war drags onhttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/iran-war-oil-shell-totalenergies-energy-strait-of-hormuz.htmlS&P Global March 2026 US PMIshttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/adc91b5cf42442cbb220d5b66b64ec7dIndian police manage long lines as panic grows over fuel shortageshttps://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/25/indian-police-manage-long-lines-as-panic-grows-over-fuel-shortageshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Another major development in private credit crisis - yes, it is a crisis now. Moody's downgraded a $13 billion KKR co-managed private credit fund, citing "asset quality challenges." This is a huge escalation for three key reasons we'll go over here.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Retail investors pull billions from private capital's credit gold minehttps://www.ft.com/content/3103e960-5e54-4cff-a439-b61a77ab21bd?syn-25a6b1a6=1Blackstone's Gray: Market ‘noise' fueled record redemptions from world's largest private credit fundhttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/03/blackstone-private-credit-fund.htmlMoody's https://ratings.moodys.com/ratings-news/461835

Blackstone's $83 billion BCred fund just reported its first monthly loss due to actual credit problems. However, it's never credit losses that kill you; it's always the forced selling, the liquidations. Financial crises begin with small credit losses and then snowball into something far greater because the issues here aren't numbers on a spreadsheet and seemingly reasonable expected loss calculations. This all comes down to trust and information. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Jon Gray Blackstone Presidenthttps://x.com/blackstone/status/2035088934753935648?Blackstone Private Credit Fund Has First Monthly Loss Since 2022https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-20/blackstone-private-credit-fund-has-first-monthly-loss-since-2022Private Credit Firm Ares Holds Town Hall to Reassure Staff on Market Volatility https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/ares-holds-townhall-to-reassure-staff-on-market-uncertaintiesAres CEO Says UBS Call on 15% Private Debt Default ‘Absolutely Wrong'https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-03/arougheti-says-15-private-debt-default-call-absolutely-wrongNew York Fed Sells Remainder of Maiden Lane LLC Securities; Approximately $2.5 Billion Net Gain Generated for U.S. Public from the Portfoliohttps://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/markets/2018/an180918Maiden Lane Transactionshttps://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/maidenlane.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Global financial markets are all over the place. We've talked about commodities being crushed, getting liquidated due to serious and underappreciated funding stress. The other side of that, rising dollar and flight to safety. And on the flipside, growing risk aversion which has markets especially overseas rolling over. Meanwhile, bonds are struggling because central banks are beginning to really panic especially over in Europe.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Liquidations, not mere selling. There's more going on behind the scenes than you think. Critical metals being liquidated means a growing worldwide dollar problem. Possibly a big one. While central bankers are running around talking about rate hikes because they wrongly believe oil prices are inflationary, where it actually matters we're already seeing the total opposite only starting with gold's worst week in forever. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Global Risks Renew Dollar Demand in the Currency Swaps Markethttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-03/global-risks-renew-dollar-demand-in-the-currency-swaps-marketThe Dollar's Double Life: Not All Dollar Appreciations Are Born Equal for the Cross-Currency Basishttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/fut.70081https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sales of newly built homes crashed by a massive 17.6% in January, with a 44% drop in the Northeast and 34% slide in the Midwest. Of course, everyone is trying to blame it on weather but sales were already weakening in December and those in the Western part of the country were down by a whopping 22%. It's now like we've haven't been following a macro bust in the property sector. Economists just don't want to admit rate cuts didn't produce the recovery they were expecting. And now homebuyers have to deal with volatility across interest rates because central bankers are doing exactly what we thought they would in response to the oil shock.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

McDonalds is doing it again as the economy is now in a race against time. The fast food giant is creating a $3 value deal after having brought back the $5 value menu in the middle of 2024. The timing wasn't an accident back then. That previous time, it was confirmation the labor market had indeed shifted to flat Beveridge - even if it took almost those two years for the payroll data to finally and fully pick up on it. But in company after company, we're seeing major changes, not just McDs. Pepsi. Dollar Tree. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Diesel tops $5 a gallon for the first time since 2022. Here's what it means for the economy.https://www.cbsnews.com/news/diesel-prices-5-dollars-gallon-economic-impact/Dollar Tree Winning Wealthier Shoppers With Higher-Priced Itemshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-16/dollar-tree-falls-after-annual-outlook-disappoints-investorsMcDonald's newest $3 value menu is sounding an alarm about America's K-shaped economyhttps://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/mcdonald-s-newest-3-value-menu-is-sounding-an-alarm-about-america-s-k-shaped-economy/ar-AA1YQVnZhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

It was maybe inevitable that the oil shock would lead to a dollar shock especially around Asia. The sudden, sharp rise in oil prices is essentially a margin call in dollars which hits the biggest energy importers the hardest. Today, the biggest economy in Southeast Asia just tightened currency controls restricting dollar availability there, and confirming the monetary situation is in a precarious position already.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Meta Platforms is reportedly considering laying off over 20% of its workforce. The company didn't confirm anything, but it also didn't deny the thrust of the rumor, either. The purpose of these theoretical job cuts does not appear to be replacing employees with AI bots, instead it sure looks like the company is trying desperately to conserve a lot cash which raises a bunch of questions about debt and debt markets.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Meta planning sweeping layoffs as AI costs mount: Reutershttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/14/meta-planning-sweeping-layoffs-as-ai-costs-mount-reuters.htmlBIS Financing the AI infrastructure boom: on- and off-balance sheet borrowinghttps://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2603u.htmHow AI Companies Are Keeping Debt Off Their Balance Sheetshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-31/meta-xai-starting-trend-for-billions-in-off-balance-sheet-debthttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Deutsche Bank. Wells Fargo. Both global systemically important banks are sitting here watching their stocks get pounded in the same way as BlackRock or Blackstone. Thankfully, not as bad as Blue Owl. Yet. And it is for the same reason. We know the private credit industry and shadow banks are in really bad shape. Markets are already looking outside of them to who might be next to have pay for really bad decisions. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

A simply brutal reminder from Canada about the real state of the global economy. The Canadians backed up the US payroll number for February, except in Canada it was the largest loss of jobs since 2022. As one big bank economist put it, this is a “simply brutal” result. While everyone has been talking, really hoping for reflation maybe recovery, the opposite keeps showing up instead. Especially where it comes to employment. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------'Simply brutal': Canada lost 84K jobs in February; unemployment rises to 6.7%https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/simply-brutal-canada-lost-84k-jobs-in-february-unemployment-rises-to-67-123843924.htmlUS Economy Lost Some Momentum, Inflation Held Firm Ahead of Warhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-13/us-consumer-spending-barely-rose-in-january-inflation-stronghttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Now it's Morgan Stanley's turn. Yesterday it was Cliffwater. Before that BlackRock and Blackstone. Of course Blue Owl. Morgan Stanley's $8 billion North Haven Private Income Fund becomes the latest shadow banking giant to both get hit with massive investor withdrawals and to deny most of them. Cliffwater also decided it was going to do the same. No wonder you keep hearing more and more people make 2008 comparisons – and there's one more you definitely need keep in mind. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

It is beginning to look more and more like a slow-motion shadow bank run. Yet another massive fund hit with largescale withdrawals. Not only that, the liquidity pressure also led to more asset sales. But those aren't even the worst of the day's news: that comes from JP Morgan and it has to do with COLLATERAL.-------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web-------------------------------------Cliffwater's $33 Billion Private Credit Fund to See 7%-Plus Redemptionshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-10/cliffwater-s-private-credit-fund-said-to-see-7-plus-redemptionsPimco Sees Crisis of ‘Bad Underwriting' in Private Credithttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/pimco-blames-sloppy-underwriting-for-private-credit-reckoningCliffwater in market with $1B private credit secondary salehttps://pitchbook.com/news/articles/cliffwater-in-market-with-1b-private-credit-secondary-saleJPMorgan Restricts Private Credit Lending After Markdownshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/jpmorgan-marks-down-private-credit-portfolios-ft-reportsSomething on Wall Street 'Smells Like' 2008, Says Former Goldman Sachs Chief. Here's What It Is.https://www.investopedia.com/private-credit-stress-smells-like-2008-says-former-goldman-sachs-chief-blankfein-11920345

We've been covering the macro housing bust for some time, and while it's still there another major problem has come up and for the same reasons. Mortgage delinquencies and even foreclosures have come into the conversation, especially in places like Texas. Rates continue to tick lower but no one is buying houses, home price growth has completely stalled, and now more borrowers are falling behind on their loans. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 1.7% Increase in Februaryhttps://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-1-7-increase-in-februaryCities With the Highest Mortgage Delinquency Rateshttps://wallethub.com/edu/cities-mortgage-delinquency-rates/141263VantageScore CreditGauge™ January 2026: Mortgage Delinquencies Rise as Early-Stage Credit Stress Broadens Across Borrowershttps://vantagescore.com/resources/knowledge-center/press_releases/vantagescore-creditgauge-january-2026-mortgage-delinquencies-rise-as-early-stage-credit-stress-broadens-across-borrowersMortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2025https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2026/02/12/mortgage-delinquencies-increase-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2025HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT REPORThttps://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Chaos at the Asian open last night with uncontrolled panic buying sending oil prices up to as high as $120 per barrel. Thankfully, they backed down and actually ended the day down by 8%. Still, that wild ride isn't good, indicating the world is really struggling with the oil challenge. We're already seeing significant fallout across the world, from dollars to stocks. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis-------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web-------------------------------------Oil Near $120 Sparks ‘Stampede to Sell' in Stocks and Bondshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-03-09/oil-near-120-sparks-stampede-to-sell-in-stocks-and-bondsBroad agreement in G7 not to release oil reserves just yet, says G7 officialhttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/broad-agreement-g7-not-release-oil-reserves-just-yet-says-g7-official-2026-03-09/Oil Market Chaos to Deepen as More Gulf Giants Cut Outputhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-08/oil-market-chaos-set-to-deepen-as-more-gulf-giants-cut-output$100 Oil Shock Set to Strain Asia's Cash-Strapped Governmentshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-09/-100-oil-shock-set-to-strain-asia-s-cash-strapped-governmentsJapan's Nikkei Enters Correction as Oil Spikes, Iran Fears Weighhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-08/japan-equities-set-to-resume-fall-on-escalating-middle-east-woesPrice Caps, Rationing and Stockpiling: Alarm Swells Over Oil Disruptionshttps://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/business/iran-oil-gas-asia.htmlYardeni Raises Odds of US Market Meltdown to 35% on Iran Warhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-09/yardeni-raises-odds-of-markets-meltdown-to-35-on-iran-war-riskshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Not one but two negative payrolls. That's what we got from the latest update on the employment situation, a double dose of flat Beverage amidst a historic week in the oil market and another major escalation in the private credit bust. And all these things go together. The looming oil shock is coming at the worst possible time with employment already in this bad shape. And private credit, well, as I've been telling since last summer, negative payrolls would change everything. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Chaos in the energy patch sent both prices and spreads exploding. It was the latter - the blowout in spreads - that is now the most concerning for what it says about this growing oil shock. At almost historic levels, just a nickel short of setting a new record, this kind of intensity and upset is alarming. Here's why and what you need to know.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisJoin us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web

BlackRock's flagship private credit fund is getting hit with so many withdrawals the company has no choice but to start blocking these requests. It's another major escalation pointing to even more anxiety and maybe some panic in the credit market. The fact this shows up on a day when payrolls went negative yet again and oil has gone nuclear should not be dismissed, either. Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-webBlackRock Private Debt Fund Slumps After Slashing Dividendhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-05/blackrock-slashes-another-private-loan-value-from-100-to-zeroBlackRock Slashed Private Loan Value From 100 to Zerohttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-27/blackrock-private-debt-fund-slumps-after-slashing-dividendBlackRock limits redemptions at private credit fund as outflows swellhttps://www.ft.com/content/2336fccb-745d-4f3b-8ade-d84f0027e70f

Energy prices renewed their surge higher today. As it stands, WTI is now just shy of $80 per barrel, up 22% in a week. Wholesale gasoline is now above $2.60 per gallon, a 30% rise since last Thursday. These are the biggest short-term energy spikes we've seen since 2022. Because of that, we have to start seriously considering various potential paths for this burgeoning oil shock, up to and including a 1990 scenario where conflict in the Middle East sent energy prices skyrocketing and tipped a weak economy here and around the world into full-blown recession. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

The Swiss National Bank just issued a very rare warning hinting at currency intervention in the franc.  While there is a mini-panic mainly in the mainstream media over oil being inflationary, look instead at what is going on in Switzerland and how it got to be this way. The last few years of consumer prices and interest rates. They are instructive about what we should expect everywhere else – including what happens when the world gets hit with a major oil spike. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------SNB Touts Intervention Threat as Iran Crisis Rattles Marketshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-02/snb-says-increasingly-prepared-to-intervene-in-fx-marketshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The oil spike has reached the global pain threshold unleashing liquidations and a scramble for liquidity. At the same time, another big development in private credit that is already spilling over into other parts of the marketplace. The dollar is jumping, never a good sign and no shortage of reasons why it is.Eurodollar University Money & Macro AnalysisJoin us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web

The conflict erupting with Iran has already impacted financial markets, though the initial impact has been pretty muted. Most of the effect has fallen on the energy sector and related, no surprise. Oil has surged above $70 per barrel, US benchmark, while wholesale gasoline has soared 17% just since Thursday. Interest rates are up though not in the way you might think. Instead, USTs are signaling something else - something big. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Thanks to Monarch for partnering with me! Start your free trial and get 50% off your first year of total money clarity using my link https://monarchmoney.yt.link/cy4DikN or code euro50.Former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey's latest firm, Block, announced it is laying off as much as 40% of its current workforce. The company also said it would rely on AI moving forward to take up any additional work, sparking renewed fears the technology is about unleash a torrent of unemployment. Joblessness is definitely a major concern, but there is far more to it and the real story of Dorsey and Block. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The credit market's terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week finishes off with yet another bankruptcy and more losses for the big Wall Street names. Worse, it's the same thing yet again: fraud and fake collateral. Plus, more bad news among BDCs has shares down. Dealer banks, however, continue to prepare for not only what we're seeing now, but looking ahead beyond it. Eurodollar University's Money and Macro AnalysisJoin us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-webNew Credit Blowup in London Has Wall Street Chasing Billionshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-26/a-new-credit-blowup-in-london-has-wall-street-chasing-billionsMFS Creditors Warn of £930 Million Shortfall From Double Pledgeshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-27/mfs-creditors-warn-of-930-million-shortfall-from-double-pledgesFS KKR Private Credit Fund Plunges to 2020 Low as Bad Loans Bitehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-26/fs-kkr-private-credit-fund-cuts-dividend-amid-rise-in-bad-loans

Just today over in Europe, two of the continent's biggest insurance companies put out statements that show this thing has already gotten very serious. At the same time of course, European banks just bought another epic amount of govt bond safety, the second most in any month on record, after telling the ECB they're highly risk averse and who can blame them with everything that keeps coming out. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Insurers See Themselves Shielded From Private Credit Worrieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-26/axa-s-buberl-sees-concern-over-private-credit-says-exposure-lowDeutsche Bank Leads EU Lenders' Exposure to Shadow Bankshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-11/deutsche-bank-most-exposed-in-europe-to-shadow-banks-ubs-sayshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Another day, several more critical development in the credit markets. Loss projections are soaring. A second fund stepped forward acknowledging asset sales (at lower prices). Big (related) shift in rates markets that ties in the Fed, yield curve, and everything else. Here we go over all three; what happened, what it all means. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University's Free Guide (video) to interpreting market signals. Taken from the EDU membership, it will help you learn fundamentals necessary to deciphering and decoding market information in a useful manner, unlike everything you get from mainstream sources. https://web.eurodollar-university.com/home------------------------------------------------------Private Credit Fears Deepen With UBS Warning of 15% Defaultshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-24/ubs-now-sees-private-credit-defaults-reaching-15-in-worst-caseBoaz Weinstein Warns ‘Wheels Coming Off' Private Credit Fundshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-24/boaz-weinstein-warns-wheels-coming-off-private-credit-fundsPrivate Credit Fund Is Selling $477 Million of Assets at 94% Value as Industry Worries Continuehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-24/new-mountain-bdc-is-selling-477-million-of-assets-at-94-value

Now it's Jamie Dimon's turn, JP Morgan's highly visible CEO is the latest to make the 2008 comparison. Following up last year's cockroach quip this time saying a lot of people in the financial industry have done dumb things. But here's the thing, markets all over the world are starting to price it. The worry showing up in safe havens is maybe this really is happening - right now. From Canadian bonds to Swiss francs, Japan, China and yes Treasuries.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University's Free Guide (video) to interpreting market signals. Taken from the EDU membership, it will help you learn fundamentals necessary to deciphering and decoding market information in a useful manner, unlike everything you get from mainstream sources. https://web.eurodollar-university.com/home------------------------------------------------------Jamie Dimon says AI euphoria, record stocks and banks doing ‘dumb things' could lead to another financial crisishttps://www.cnn.com/2026/02/24/economy/jamie-dimon-warningThe Viral Citrini Substack Post That Has Sparked New AI Worries on Wall Streethttps://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-tariffs-02-23-2026/card/the-citrini-substack-selloff-70cWx0scioiLradyuTRaYen Slides After Report on Takaichi Caution Over Rate Hikeshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-24/yen-extends-decline-after-report-on-takaichi-s-rate-hike-viewhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

In the wake of Blue Owl's shocking announcement last week basically trapping retail investors in a private credit fund they don't want to be in, signs of fallout from it are trickling in. To begin with, private continues to sell off, Blue Owl especially. But it's not just private credit, we're seeing stress in other corners of the risky credit markets, too, which has a number of prominent analysts and observers wondering if maybe we are seeing too many signs that look too much like 2007.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Walmart has been one of the few to benefit from the difficult economy the past few years. It's gotten to the point where even high income earners have become regular Walmart shoppers. But here's the thing, this week when forecasting earnings for the year ahead, now even Walmart is a bit concerned over the possible further negative consequences of what it's CFO called a “hiring recession.”Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre--------------------------------------------------------------------------This is the kinds of material we've been covering - at length and in depth - at Eurodollar University in our Deep Dive Analysis and memberships. It's the background, the core concepts, the unique insight that allows us to not just stay on top of everything, but actually understanding what's going on and why to then anticipate roughly where the markets, the economy, the entire world is heading. EDU's Memberships and Subscriptions. Go from getting blindsided by the markets to reading the eurodollar signals weeks before they hit. Try it all risk-free for 14 days.https://web.eurodollar-university.com/eurodollar-vsl-page-a--------------------------------------------------------------------------Walmart Cites Worrying Economic Indicators in Cautious Forecasthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-19/walmart-cites-worrying-economic-indicators-in-cautious-forecastFood Companies Sink as Executives Warn of Consumer Stresshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-17/general-mills-warns-of-slumping-sales-on-weak-consumer-sentimenthttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

While Blue Owl's blowup exploded the private credit mess back into the mainstream with yesterday's first confirmation of Stage 2, there had been some building pressures in the monetary system leading up to it. Including a seemingly out of nowhere surge in borrowing from the Fed's repo facility on Tuesday, a whopping $30 billion spike. And that's not even the biggest part of this. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Credit Crisis Stage 2 has been observed. Stage 1 is when money flows out of a bubble but is roughly still balanced meaning some uncomfortable fund managers but no big consequences like forced selling. Stage 2 is when that balance unbalances leading to bigger problems like forced selling. Today, we got confirmation of forced selling for the first time...and a LOT more. --------------------------------------------------------------------------This is the kinds of material we've been covering - at length and in depth - at Eurodollar University in our Deep Dive Analysis and memberships. It's the background, the core concepts, the unique insight that allows us to not just stay on top of everything, but actually understanding what's going on and why to then anticipate roughly where the markets, the economy, the entire world is heading. EDU's Memberships and Subscriptions. Go from getting blindsided by the markets to reading the eurodollar signals weeks before they hit. Try it all risk-free for 14 days.https://web.eurodollar-university.com/eurodollar-vsl-page-a--------------------------------------------------------------------------Blue Owl Halts Redemptions on Private Credit Retail Fundhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-18/blue-owl-loan-sale-raises-1-4-billion-for-investor-payoutsBlue Owl permanently halts redemptions at private credit fund aimed at retail investorshttps://www.ft.com/content/b2f299f6-2a82-4a43-bcbf-86cac3937550Blue Owl BDC Allows 17% Redemptions as Investors Storm Exithttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-07/blue-owl-bdc-allows-for-17-redemptions-as-investors-storm-exit

Stock market volatility has been moving higher since Christmas Eve as this undercurrent of anxiety refuses to go away. Some of it is AI related, sure, but deep down there is this nagging feeling the economy isn't turning the corner like they all said it would. So where do you go to find clues whether or not that has been the case. A perfect place to start is global bellwether Switzerland – which just confirmed it is in recession. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis--------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU's Memberships and Subscriptions. Go from getting blindsided by the markets to reading the eurodollar signals weeks before they hit. Try it all risk-free for 14 days.https://web.eurodollar-university.com/eurodollar-vsl-page-a--------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

After another month of even more deeply troubling banking data from China, S&P is wondering if the Chinese may be facing their Japanification moment as a key central bank rate just moved to a record low. Now, I don't think they're facing it; China is clearly there and the latest data confirms as much. The time scale is different, but when you're talking about the biggest banks in the world – and the top four are all Chinese – you have to pay attention. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Existing home sales utterly crashed in January. Yes, January is not a great month for real estate shopping and there was obviously less than ideal weather, however those don't explain the 8.4% plunge in transactions. Analysts who were already factoring those other excuses only thought there would be a modest impact from them, not the biggest monthly drop in housing in four years. So much for that supposedly strong payroll report. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 8.4% Decrease in Januaryhttps://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-8-4-decrease-in-januaryHousehold Debt and Credit Reporthttps://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.htmlWhere Are Mortgage Delinquencies Rising the Most?https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/where-are-mortgage-delinquencies-rising-the-most/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

We really, really messed up the jobs data the past few years, we got it almost completely wrong, but trust us, we're good now. That's what the BLS is saying today about its estimates for jobs and employment and right now no one is buying it. Why should they? The agency screwed up so badly it now admits there were 1.03 million fewer payrolls as of December than it previously thought. One million fewer payrolls. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis--------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU's Memberships and Subscriptions. Go from getting blindsided by the markets to reading the eurodollar signals weeks before they hit. Try it all risk-free for 14 days.https://web.eurodollar-university.com/eurodollar-vsl-page-a--------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The UK's Prime Minister is hanging on for his career after a series of missteps has his own labor party almost in revolt. The current crisis was triggered by an ill-advised appointment of an ambassador to the US who is caught up in the Jeffrey Epstein mess. But that's not really the issue. Once again, a government that came to power not even two years ago finds voters who can't wait to throw it out of office.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Starmer banks on economic growth to 'rebuild Britain'https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clll8d2vd8yoWhy UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called an election he's expected to losehttps://www.cnn.com/2024/05/24/uk/prime-minister-rishi-sunak-election-intlUK Opinion Pollshttps://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opinion-pollsNew UK prime minister Rishi Sunak warns ‘difficult decisions to come'https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/25/rishi-sunak-warns-difficult-decisions-to-come-as-he-assumes-officeUK General election 2024 Resultshttps://www.bbc.com/news/election/2024/uk/resultsHow unpopular is Britain's Labour government?https://www.economist.com/interactive/2025-british-politicsEurope's leaders are deeply unpopularhttps://www.axios.com/2026/02/10/europe-leadership-crisis-starmer-macron-merzhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Thanks to Monarch for partnering with me! Start your free trial and get 50% off your first year of total money clarity using my link https://monarchmoney.yt.link/mFP5VcW or code euro50.Authorities in China are advising Chinese banks they need to seriously consider changing up their bond market allocations right now. Citing concentration risk as well as the possibility for volatility, regulators are supposedly trying to prevent depositories from buying bonds. If this sounds familiar, it should since the PBOC did something similar in the summer of 2024. But in this case, the asset being targeted isn't local. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisChina Urges Banks to Curb Exposure to US Treasurieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-09/china-urges-banks-to-limit-holdings-of-us-treasuries-citing-market-volatilityForeign Holdings of US Treasuries Climbed to Record in Novemberhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-15/foreign-holdings-of-us-treasuries-climbed-to-record-in-novemberDollar Global Transaction Use Jumps to New High, Swift Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-22/dollar-global-transaction-usage-jumps-to-new-high-swift-saysPBOC Says No Longer in China's Interest to Increase Reserves (2013)https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-11-20/pboc-says-no-longer-in-china-s-favor-to-boost-record-reserveshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

It was a trio of reports that turned an already shaky market into a disorderly mess. Private credit stocks were hit hard as were cryptocurrencies after ADP, Challenger and a delayed release from the BLS each overwhelmed expectations. Just more negative fuel to the selling fire as the riskiest financial markets were reeling from the economic implications.   Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre--------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU's Memberships and Subscriptions. Go from getting blindsided by the markets to reading the eurodollar signals weeks before they hit. Try it all risk-free for 14 days.https://web.eurodollar-university.com/eurodollar-vsl-page-a--------------------------------------------------------------------------Challenger Gray & Christmashttps://www.challengergray.com/blog/challenger-report-january-job-cuts-surge-lowest-january-hiring-on-record/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

European banks were asked what they thought about corporate credit opportunities in the coming year given that most officials, anyway, in Europe believe everything is picking up. As Christine Lagarde, head of the ECB, is so fond of saying, Europe, European interest rate policy, inflation, the economy, everything is in a good place. Except, the answer the banking sector sent back surprised everyone and is almost certainly going to play a role in market volatility like we've been seeing recently. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Widespread financial meltdown continued again today, slamming crypto, silver, and private credit particularly hard. After what appeared to be an early morning rally, it didn't last as a range of more-than-disappointing labor data came flooding to the tape. The narrative of a 2026 pick up is not being picked up anywhere other than mainstream Economists.Eurodollar University Money and Macro Analysis

Pepsi is slashing prices for some of its most popular brands, some by 15%. The company said it has spent the past year listening to consumer feedback. Nah. What happened is always what happens in this economy and why there is no breakout inflation. Companies that do raise prices end up sacrificing volumes because their customers can't afford to pay more. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University LIVE — February 2026, President's Day WeekendSmall group. Intimate setting. Direct access to experts you won't get anywhere else. Only a few VIP slots remain.Sign up here: https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page----------------------------------------------------------------PepsiCo to cut prices of Lay's, Doritos as consumers push backhttps://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/pepsico-tops-quarterly-revenue-estimates-resilient-demand-sodas-2026-02-03/After Years of Increases, PepsiCo Pledges to Cut Prices on Snackshttps://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/03/business/pepsi-doritos-cheetos-prices.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

They thought they were reassuring debt markets over AI cash. Instead, the company kicked a hornet's nest, unleashing a MAJOR selloff that is sweeping through private credit. It isn't just the BDCs (publicly traded funds) this time, either. The asset managers themselves are now getting swept up in the money outflows. Eurodollar University Money & Macro Analysis

The selloff in precious metals, particularly silver, has extended into today's session. One reason why, one additional reason why, we're seeing reports of fraud emerge in heavy buyer China, including from a guy who's apparently called “the hat.” It's the kind of thing that usually comes up when big bubbles go up and then pop, so another sign that's what's happening here in the short run. Which raises another question, how far down might silver go in the near-term? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------China gold "protests"https://www.youtube.com/shorts/HbICfItSfZAhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

A key corner of the credit market is experiencing sustained and even accelerated selling at the end of January 2026. What we're talking about is historically one of the most economically sensitive segments, a growing caution about the climate ahead. And it's not the only one. From cryptocurrencies to the inability of the AI bubble to get going, the cracks continue to widen rather than fade away like everyone said they were going to. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me and Brent, plus Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, and Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend, February 2026. Small groups, intimate discussions. To reserve your spot just go here https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Consumer prices are never going to go back to where they were before the pandemic. This simple reason is they can't. You think that since they went up, they can just go right back down. That's not unlikely, it is impossible and I'm going to show you why with a very simple example. Now the implications of this economic fact are profound. In fact, it explains everything about the economy we have right now, from the labor market and the lack of jobs to, yes, affordability.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Has the rally in silver gone so far now that the metal's price action is actually behaving like a meme stock? Or is there something more fundamental and deeply disturbing behind what precious metals are doing? Maybe we should consider how it isn't a loss of faith in the dollar as so many people wrongly claim which is propelling both gold and silver right now, what if it is the growing mistrust in how the entire world works and fits together. Or used to. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me and Brent, plus Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, and Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend, February 2026. Small groups, intimate discussions. To reserve your spot just go here https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page---------------------------------------------------------Part 1: My Life Is a LieHow a Broken Benchmark Quietly Broke Americahttps://www.yesigiveafig.com/p/part-1-my-life-is-a-lieAgency Costs of Overvalued Equityhttps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=480421https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

After cutting 14,000 jobs back in October and denying there were more of them coming, Amazon confirmed yesterday there will be another 16,000 layoffs and made comments suggesting the company won't be done even after then. These job cuts will only add to the worsening anxiety among American workers, who reminded everyone of those deep concerns in the latest plunge in consumer confidence. According to the most optimistic measure for it, from the Conference Board, confidence crashed to its lowest level in over a decade.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------CNBC Amazon laying off about 16,000 corporate workers in latest anti-bureaucracy pushhttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/28/amazon-layoffs-anti-bureaucracy-ai.htmlInternal messages reveal which teams, jobs affected in Amazon layoffshttps://www.businessinsider.com/internal-messages-teams-jobs-affected-amazon-layoffs-2026-1CB US Consumer Confidence Fell Sharply in Januaryhttps://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

One of BlackRock's private credit funds has just resurrected the cockroach concerns over debt woes in the space. By announcing that it will have to write down 19% of its net asset value, the fund also discloses more areas of cockroach concerns beyond those we had already become aware of. While at the same time, further reminding everyone how everything that people were worried about before they need to keep worrying about and then some. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU LIVE PRESIDENT'S DAY FEBRUARY 2026If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me and Brent, plus Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, and Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. Small groups, intimate discussions. To reserve your spot just go here but you better hurry, there aren't many spots left:https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------BlackRock TCP SEC Filing 8Khttps://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001370755/000114036126002240/ef20063739_8k.htmBlackRock Private Debt Fund Tumbles After Writing Down Loanshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-26/blackrock-private-debt-fund-tumbles-after-writing-down-loansFlawed Valuations Threaten $1.7 Trillion Private Credit Boomhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-28/how-private-credit-market-boom-is-hiding-potential-valuation-problemsBlackRock to Auction Amazon Seller Once Valued at $1 Billionhttps://pe-insights.com/blackrock-to-auction-amazon-seller-once-valued-at-1-billion/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

An unprecedented shakeup at the very top of the Chinese military has shaken up the rest of the world. Xi Jinping didn't just go after a longtime friend and ally, he has gone after everyone in what increasingly looks like a paranoid, Stalinist shakeup. But why? I've told you many times before about the economic pressure on China that has only intensified more recently. But that's not the only thing. That's where it starts, but where it ends is what is increasingly being confirmed as Cold War 2.0.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------60 Minutes How China could use U.S. farmland to attack Americahttps://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-china-could-use-us-farmland-to-attack-america-60-minutes/NYT Xi's Purge of China's Military Brings Its Top General Down https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/24/world/asia/china-top-general-xi-military-purge.htmlU.S. Secret Service dismantles imminent telecommunications threat in New York tristate areahttps://www.secretservice.gov/newsroom/releases/2025/09/us-secret-service-dismantles-imminent-telecommunications-threat-new-yorkhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU