Discussing the function and malfunction of the global monetary order and its consequences on finance, economics, politics and society.
The Making Sense podcast, hosted by Jeff Snider and Emil Kalinowski, is a highly informative and educational show that delves into the complexities of the global monetary system. With their in-depth knowledge and expertise, Jeff and Emil provide valuable insights on macroeconomic trends, inflation dynamics, and the functioning of the Eurodollar system. The podcast is well-presented and engaging, with a good balance between historical context and current data analysis.
One of the best aspects of The Making Sense podcast is its ability to explain complex economic concepts in a way that is accessible to listeners. Jeff's deep understanding of macroeconomic trends allows him to break down these topics in a clear and concise manner. Additionally, the use of historical references, quotes, and data adds credibility to the discussions and helps to paint a complete picture of how things work in the world of markets and economics.
Another notable aspect of this podcast is the hosts' sense of humor. Despite discussing intricate financial concepts, Jeff and Emil inject humor into their conversations, making it an enjoyable experience for listeners. Their chemistry as hosts also contributes to the overall appeal of the show.
While The Making Sense podcast offers valuable insights into the global monetary system, one potential downside is that it may require some background knowledge or familiarity with economics. For beginners or those less well-versed in these subjects, there may be a learning curve to fully grasp some of the discussions. However, with time and regular listening, these concepts become more understandable.
In conclusion, The Making Sense podcast is an exceptional resource for anyone interested in gaining a deeper understanding of macroeconomic trends and the global monetary system. Jeff Snider's expertise combined with Emil Kalinowski's hosting make for an engaging and informative show. By providing unique insights not found in mainstream financial media, this podcast fills an important niche in educating listeners about key economic topics.
The stock market was going to boom either way. Payrolls could have been plus 200 or minus 200, indexes were going to soar no matter what. Either the economy is robust or the other would mean the Fed will be forced to cut a lot of rates. But what the jobs data actually showed, no one was looking for. Complete shock yet again. Sure, the payroll number did what the payroll number always does, it was everything else. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Learn more about Augusta Precious Metals and what they have to offer - including physical gold for IRA accounts - by going to https://EurodollarGold.com or text EURO to 35052. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Five major developments in the credit crisis/bust. BlackRock, JP Morgan, Blue Owl, Apollo and another big run on a big fund. Private credit didn't go anywhere, the situation keeps escalating and each one of these represents more significant confirmation of the shift toward toxic waste status. From asset valuations to more losses at big names, the behavior has radically changed. Eurodollar University Money & Macro AnalysisGundlach Warns Investors Will Lose Money on Private Credithttps://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/gundlach-warns-investors-lose-money-200041360.htmlBlackRock Private Credit Fund Cuts Asset Value on Markdownshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/blackrock-private-debt-fund-cuts-asset-value-on-loan-markdownsJPMorgan-Led Group Eyes $500 Million Loss on Qualtrics Debthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-06/jpmorgan-led-group-eyes-500-million-loss-on-qualtrics-debtBlue Owl adviser sued over allegedly inflating fund values, charging excessive feeshttps://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/blue-owl-adviser-sued-over-allegedly-inflating-fund-values-charging-excessive-2026-04-28/Apollo CEO Rowan warns of market correction, slams ‘egregious' practices at rival insurershttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/06/apollo-ceo-rowan-market-correction-rival-insurers.htmlApollo to Give Investors Daily Pricing on Private Credit By Septemberhttps://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/apollo-to-give-investors-daily-pricing-on-private-credit-by-september-44a2c84b$10 Billion Golub Fund Caps Outflows After Requests for 8.5%https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/-10-billion-golub-fund-caps-outflows-after-requests-for-8-5
McDonald's CEO says the consumer environment is certainly not improving and may be getting a little worse after the company reported better than expected past results. Those mainly before the gas prices jumped. Jumping over to big ticket items like appliances, Whirlpool, the company that employs the Maytag Man, it compared the current consumer climate to – not joking – 2008-09 as the cracks of demand destruction are indeed beginning to grow wider and becoming more noticeable. The Maytag man is somewhere right now polishing his resume. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------McDonald's CEO says consumer spending could be ‘getting a little bit worse'https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/07/mcdonalds-mcd-q1-2026-earnings.htmlEarnings call transcript: Whirlpool Q1 2026 results fall short, stock dropshttps://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/earnings-call-transcript-whirlpool-q1-2026-results-fall-short-stock-drops-93CH-4618415April 2026 National Poll: Iran, the economy, and the 2026/2028 electionshttps://www.generationlab.org/state-of-young-peopleChallenger Gray & Christmas April 2026https://www.challengergray.com/blog/challenger-report-april-job-cuts-rise-38-from-march-ytd-cuts-down-50/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The stock market was not happy with HSBC. The banking giant reported what should have been a small nothing, a $400mm loss on a loan to an Irish entity with a name that sounds like a Star Wars droid. AGF WHCO 1-A5. But that $400mm loan and loss ended up pulling back the curtain a little more on the current credit crisis. As did the comments from Apollo's CEO, where he used the words “contagion” and “egregious.” Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis-----------------------------------------------What is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery—it's a method. If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. Ready to explore? Master monetary systems – past and future - with structure, clarity, and confidence. Visit https://eurodollar.university/membership-------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
According to the Energy Information Administration, the national average price for gasoline was $4.26 per gallon at the end of April and it was largely stable throughout last month. Not good. Certainly painful. But wholesale gas price has exploded higher in recent weeks and that means retail gas prices are about to do the same thing. The wholesale cost points to a nationwide pump price of $5. Not next month, soon. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Learn more about Augusta Precious Metals and what they have to offer - including physical gold for IRA accounts - by going to https://EurodollarGold.com or text EURO to 35052. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------Just a Few Stocks Driving S&P 500 Rally Triggers Dot-Com Bubble Flashbackshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-05/dot-com-bubble-flashbacks-triggered-by-lack-of-s-p-500-breadthRCM/TIPP Steadies In May As Stress Easeshttps://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/05/05/rcmtipp_steadies_in_may_as_stress_eases_1180584.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
We know how central bankers are just itching to raise policy rates and all over the world, led primarily by those in Europe. The hawkishness is already spreading. Just today, an official from South Korea's central bank said, hey, oil prices up we need to think about some hikes, too. But what are the markets pricing? It's not what you'd think. What do the curves look like for now but also beyond the near-term? In a word, frown. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Will this week's economic data be enough to keep central bankers from chasing oil prices with rate hikes? Europe was barely positive. Canada bounced back but that's two up and two down over the last year. Mexico, which, keep in mind, is a proxy for the US, big time contraction. And the US itself missed with weakness all over consumers. All that before the full energy shock weighs in.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreLearn more about Augusta Gold and what they have to offer - including physical gold for IRA accounts - by going to https://EurodollarGold.com or text EURO to 35052. https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Thanks to Monarch for partnering with me! Start your free trial and get 50% off your first year of total money clarity using my link https://monarchmoney.yt.link/8CnCd5q or code euro50 for 50% Off Monarch Core tier.The Japanese government, working through the Bank of Japan, just set $35 billion on fire. Then flushed it down the toilet. And if that wasn't enough, officials in Tokyo are talking about embarrassing themselves in the oil market. Wasting five and half trillion yen in FX wasn't enough, throw some more money down the hole and all for the public spectacle of it. What a world we live in. Unfortunately for them, and for their counterparts in India, this is the eurodollar's world. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisPhone Warning Shows Yen Intervention Is the New Normalhttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-05-01/katayama-phone-warning-shows-yen-intervention-is-the-new-normalYen's Correlation With Oil Hit 2021 High Before Interventionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-01/yen-s-correlation-with-oil-hit-2021-high-before-interventionJapan Is Said to Sound Out Market on Oil Futures Interventionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-24/japan-is-said-to-sound-out-market-on-oil-futures-interventionRBI's Short Dollar Book Surges Past $100 Billion for First Timehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-30/rbi-s-short-dollar-book-surges-past-100-billion-for-first-timehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
We know when Walmart or Dollar General are doing well, those are not good signs for the health of the consumer economy, particularly when it's higher income shoppers suddenly appearing in bigger numbers. But when that hard hit traffic starts spilling over to the local pawn shops, it's a whole other level. Canaries and coalmines. Here's the thing. We're not only seeing that happen, the data backs this up, including a whole bunch which released earlier today.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis-----------------------------------------------What is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery—it's a method. If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. Ready to explore? Master monetary systems – past and future - with structure, clarity, and confidence. Visit https://eurodollar.university/membership-------------------------------------------------Pawn shop economyhttps://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/pawn-shops-are-seeing-something-the-stock-market-isn-t-and-it-has-economists-concerned/vi-AA21Rt7fPowell Press Conference Transcript and Videohttps://www.federalreserve.gov/live-broadcast.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
European banks just told the ECB they are tightening lending standards by the most since 2023. At the same time, the pick up in loan demand they're seeing is due to heightened liquidity pressures as the energy shock has especially corporate borrowers in Europe on edge. This is why despite knowing the ECB is very likely to raise its policy rates at some point, probably not tomorrow but very likely its next meeting in June, European banks bought a boatload of bonds anyway.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
A week ago, the UAE said it was in consultation with the US government trying to arrange a dollar swap line. Since then, Treasury Secretary Bessent told Congress MANY allies were, too, and not just those in the Middle East. Just hours ago, huge news as the UAE says it's outright leaving OPEC. There is big stuff going on behind the scenes because the energy shock is indeed a dollar shock and much bigger than people think, and the chances of becoming uncontained are not trivial.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisUAE to Leave OPEC in May as Iran War Reshapes Oil Markethttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-28/uae-to-leave-opec-and-opec-next-month-to-pursue-new-strategyBessent Says Gulf, Asian Allies Requested Currency Swap Lineshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-22/bessent-says-many-us-allies-in-gulf-asia-requested-swap-linesPimco's $10 Billion Private Deals Fuel Middle East's Wartime Cash Questhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-04-27/pimco-buys-abu-dhabi-qatar-kuwait-private-bonds-dubai-homes-prices-fallDubai's DIFC introduces temporary economic support for businesses, retail communityhttps://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dubais-difc-introduces-temporary-economic-support-businesses-retail-community-2026-04-09/
Interest rates going up. Oil prices big problem. The stock market kept soaring, but even though the S&P 500 gained 20% that year more stocks in the index ended 1999 down than up. There are some similarities between now and '99 and one of those is how far companies will go to make sure they aren't one of those on the outside looking in. CEOs today are all over AI hype, but they're lying to you about it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------THE YEAR IN THE MARKETS; 1999: Extraordinary Winners and More Losershttps://www.nytimes.com/2000/01/03/business/the-year-in-the-markets-1999-extraordinary-winners-and-more-losers.htmlBank of England Official Says Share Prices Don't Reflect Riskshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-24/bank-of-england-official-says-share-prices-don-t-reflect-riskshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Back in April 2020, oil prices went negative after the futures market underestimated just how much demand had collapsed, causing chaos as market participants scrambled to unload their oil. Here in April 2026, the oil futures market is in danger of something similar but in the opposite direction. Certain market participants just may be underestimating how much supply has collapsed. Worrying that might be the case, the Dallas Fed surveyed oil industry companies about what they're seeing and where they think the Hormuz blockage is leading the energy marketplace. You're not going to like it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis-----------------------------------------------What is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery—it's a method. If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. Ready to explore? Master monetary systems – past and future - with structure, clarity, and confidence. Visit https://eurodollar.university/membership-------------------------------------------------Dallas Fed Energy Survey Q1 2026 updatehttps://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2026/2601/2601updateOil Trader Andurand Lost 52% in April First Half on Oil Betshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-23/andurand-lost-52-in-april-first-half-as-ceasefire-hurt-oil-betsThe world is watching the wrong oil pricehttps://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/04/23/the-world-is-watching-the-wrong-oil-price/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Underscoring the global nature of private credit and the credit cycle, one of India's biggest borrowers has announced it will be delaying principal and interest payments on one of its biggest junk bonds. And who are the primary owners of said bonds? Private credit funds like Cerberus and regulated institutions like Deutsche Bank. The specific bonds in question aren't going to bring down either one, but the missed cash payments do highlight more behavior consistent with a shift in the cycle and what that means.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. To take advantage of our limited-time Eurodollar University subscription offer to get access to all EDU materials, reports, and data, visit the link below:https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offer----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Top Indian Private Credit Borrower Delays Paying 20.75% Bondhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-24/india-s-shapoorji-gets-nod-to-delay-bond-days-before-maturityJeffrey Gundlach Rips TCW Group Over Red Lobster ‘PIK Magic'https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-04-18/jeffrey-gundlach-rips-tcw-group-over-red-lobster-pik-magicBank of England Deputy Governor Warns of Private Credit Crunchhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-22/private-credit-crunch-risk-spurs-boe-s-stress-test-breeden-saysTraders Return to Fed Funds Wager That Surged During Repo Stresshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-22/traders-return-to-fed-funds-trade-that-surged-during-repo-stresshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The global economy is being set right up for a brutal summer, according to the latest incoming data. Manufacturing is up right now, but the faster it goes today the worse it is going to be in the coming months. Services, the majority of the economy, are starting to get crushed – Europe, for example, it just set a 62-month low. This is the same general setup as last year which fed right into job losses, contracting incomes, rising unemployment...and more Pringles. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis-----------------------------------------------What is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery—it's a method. If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. Ready to explore? Master monetary systems – past and future - with structure, clarity, and confidence. Visit https://eurodollar.university/membership-------------------------------------------------SPG US PMIshttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/8bdf1bb2dddf420e9c0e9d7e22f75c09SPG EZ PMIshttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/89d5df92554f42589275c1d9ddb5fde3SPG Japan PMIshttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/f65b1852016d49a5abde92a6b742f9bchttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
European consumer sentiment is in "free fall", in the European govt's own words. DHL's CEO warned the world is heading for a quote tipping point – in other words, the race against time. Economic sentiment just crashed. Unemployment in places like Scandinavia has jumped while in the UK job losses have returned alongside the appearance of one of the worse labor market outcomes, the dropout. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------DHL CEO Warns of ‘Tipping Point' Risk If Oil Shortage Persistshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-21/dhl-ceo-warns-of-tipping-point-risk-if-oil-shortage-persistsEuropean Union Flash Consumer Confidence April 2026https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/11ffc7fa-f14b-4ed7-a44c-2e45fa85fec5_en?filename=Flash_consumer_2026_04_en.pdfGerman Investor Outlook Drops to Worst Since 2022 on Iran Warhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-21/german-investor-outlook-drops-to-worst-since-2022-on-iran-warGermany Halves 2026 Growth Forecast After Hit From Iran Warhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-22/germany-halves-growth-forecast-for-2026-after-hit-from-iran-warhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Countries REALLY don't want to go to DC and ask for a dollar swap line. One nation just did (according to WSJ) and it is one of the most critical redistribution centers in the eurodollar system. While the usual suspects go on about "dedollarization" and petroyuans, over here in the real world the consequences from lack of oil flow include a shortfall of dollars as much as oil.Eurodollar University Money & Macro AnalysisU.A.E. Asks U.S. About a Wartime Financial Lifelinehttps://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-a-e-asks-u-s-for-a-wartime-financial-lifeline-3f9ea3a0Qatar Warns of ‘Huge' Economic Fallout From War in Coming Monthshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-15/qatar-warns-of-huge-economic-fallout-from-war-in-coming-months
Interest rates in China's bond market are aggressively declining, more at the short-term maturities. It's a classic bond bull case, which means it isn't bullish. The question is where this is coming from. Inside the country or outside? As if that wasn't the only big signal, the Chinese government just did something that will have you shaking your head where it comes to consumer spending and retail sales data. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreIn a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That's why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on. If you don't have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University's comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you. Visit https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.comhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Banks are taking more steps to distance themselves from the growing private credit bust. They're revaluing private credit assets that have been pledged to them as security for financing banks have provided to these shadow banks. I told you when JPM did it a month ago there would be others. Insurance companies are now really getting dragged into this mess, too, a double dose of Stage 2.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------ACLI President and CEO David Chavern Responds to April 14th Financial Times Article on Private Credit https://www.acli.com/posting/acr26-003Wall Street banks start trading derivatives to bet on pain in private credithttps://www.ft.com/content/54076a09-7a66-44f3-8e70-343f6d601e50?syn-25a6b1a6=1https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The good news is the IRS is reporting about a 10% rise in average income tax refunds. However, the initial data is showing most Americans are just not spending the windfall. Understandably, they're either saving the money or more often paying down debt. Those are certainly positive in their own way, helping struggling taxpayers repair their own fiscal balance sheets after years of limited income growth and jobs, but from the broader economic perspective it's not what was hoped. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis-------------------------------------------------------In a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That's why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on. If you don't have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University's comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you. Visit https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com-------------------------------------------------------Did the 2008 Tax Rebates Stimulate Spending?https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3522430/Tax Refund Splurge for Many Americans Is Paying Down Debthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-16/higher-2026-tax-refunds-help-us-households-pay-down-credit-card-student-debthttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The IMF is getting nervous. Nervous to the point its chief economist just said the world is already drifting toward their newly minted adverse scenario. What does that mean? It means a collision course with the point of no return. And that point of no return is much closer than you'd think given how the world was in bad shape before the energy shock showed up. The difference between fragile and resilient makes all the difference. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
You know who can't stop talking about the private credit bust? The big bankers. Jamie Dimon is constantly in the media almost too happy to share his negative thoughts. Recently Goldman Sach's David Solomon reminded everyone the credit cycle has not been repealed. But you know who hasn't said a word? Life insurance execs. The companies that write retirement annuities. 2008 was about big banks. 2026 is about big insurance. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis-----------------------------------------------------------What is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery—it's a method. If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. Mainstream education has left so many massive gaps on the most foundational concepts, making sense of everything is practically impossible otherwise. With our memberships, we'll fill in everything that you've been missing. https://eurodollar.university/memberships -----------------------------------------------------------Life Insurers' Role in the Intermediation Chain of Public and Private Credit to Risky Firmshttps://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/life-insurers-role-in-the-intermediation-chain-of-public-and-private-credit-to-risky-firms-20250321.htmlUS insurance regulators pulling back the curtain on private credithttps://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2026/3/us-insurance-regulators-pulling-back-the-curtain-on-private-credit-100049804Insurers' $1 Trillion Buildup in Private Credit Is Leaving Regulators in the Dusthttps://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/insurers-1-trillion-buildup-in-private-credit-is-leaving-regulators-in-the-dust-5f84cad8The Rise Of Private Credit In Insurers' Investment Portfolioshttps://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/the-rise-of-private-credit-in-insurers-investment-portfolios-s101643158The Rise of Insurance-Linked Capital in Private Credithttps://www.abfjournal.com/the-rise-of-insurance-linked-capital-in-private-credit/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Chinese banks are now trapped which is why China has finally entered an era of full-blown extend and pretend. It's been on the edge of it for some time, but recent data and information out of the country show the banking sector has crossed that threshold into the low-rate trap which has squeezed profitability and left banks to bleed cash. So, more grim lending and credit data from China's central bank just confirms everything including the trap having been sprung. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Underwater Mortgages Force China's Banks to Get More Creativehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-04-06/china-s-housing-crisis-forces-banks-to-confront-underwater-mortgagesChina's largest banks' profits virtually flat as property slump continueshttps://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-icbc-worlds-biggest-bank-posts-1-profit-rise-2025-2026-03-27/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
With talks between the US and Iran falling apart, there will be renewed focus this week on the Strait of Hormuz, getting it open and restoring traffic. Nearly all the focus so far as been on the energy part of the trade equation, the amount crude oil being able to transit the bottleneck. But there is another key set of commodities that are likewise being held back, and most people don't realize just how big this is. Energy shock, yes, there is also a growing food shock. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreWhat is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery—it's a method. If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. Mainstream education has left so many massive gaps on the most foundational concepts, making sense of everything is practically impossible otherwise. With our memberships, we'll fill in everything that you've been missing. https://eurodollar.university/memberships Nations Race to Secure Enough Fertilizer and Prevent Food Crisishttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-Dq0GSd_ckIt's not just oil and gas. The Strait of Hormuz blockage is rattling another vital commodityhttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/fertilizer-price-iran-war-food-security-inflation-urea-potash-nitrogen-farmers.htmlFAO Chief Economist warns of severe global food security risks from disruption to Strait of Hormuz trade corridorhttps://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/fao-chief-economist-warns-of-severe-global-food-security-risks-from-disruption-to-strait-of-hormuz-trade-corridor/enhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Repo fails spiked to more than $415 billion. Treasury bill prices are jumping. Prices. US bank dealers are using their record government bond holdings at the same time foreigners are deploying huge amounts of their reserves of the same instruments. Treasuries bonds are all over the shadows and it has nothing do with interest rates or the Fed, except the Fed is providing a lot of the data. What does it all mean? The answer -a critical part of it - can be found in Nigeria. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Target is throwing in the towel on its previous losing strategy. Like many businesses, it tried to raise prices only to find its customers going elsewhere, largely to Walmart. Now Target is slashing its prices including on the towel it just threw in. The retail giant simply has no other choice given the sudden change in consumer behavior we're seeing across the economic landscape. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTarget cuts prices on 3,000 items as stubborn inflation keeps US consumers on edgehttps://www.reuters.com/business/target-slashes-prices-more-than-3000-products-2026-03-11/Fewer Americans Plan to Travel After Surging Fuel Costs Hit Budgetshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-02/fuel-price-rise-on-iran-war-has-americans-putting-vacations-on-holdNumerator Consumers React to Rising Gas Priceshttps://www.numerator.com/resources/blog/consumers-react-rising-gas-prices/FRBNY SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONShttps://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Several countries across Asia are confirming they experienced major dollar funding losses last month amidst a cash crunch on surging demand for money to buy oil. Officials in Taiwan, Indonesia, India and in other places have had to scramble to contain the monetary pressure, causing several of them to expend significant reserves just to keep their currency values from plunging. Or, plunging more than they did. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Taiwan's Foreign Reserves Drop Most Since 2011 on Interventionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-08/taiwan-s-foreign-reserves-drop-most-since-2011-on-interventionBank Indonesia Prioritizes Stability as Rupiah Hits Record Lowshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/bank-indonesia-prioritizes-stability-as-rupiah-hits-record-lowsIndonesia's FX Reserves Hit Two-Year Low on Rupiah Defensehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-08/indonesia-fx-reserves-hit-nearly-two-year-low-on-rupiah-defenceIndia's Central Bank Holds Rate, Vows to Curb Volatile Rupeehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-08/india-keeps-key-rate-steady-as-weak-rupee-takes-center-stagehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Airports are canceling flights right now due fuel shortages and fears they will worsen. Airlines are including those in the US are already raising bag fees and other costs trying to pass along the doubling in jet fuel prices to passengers. Meanwhile, the international energy agency's chief says the current oil crisis is worse than 1973, 1979, and 2022 combined. The thing is, that sounds crazy but sadly it's not and we're just now seeing the preliminary effects of Hormuz at the forefront in air travel. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIf you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. Mainstream education has left so many massive gaps on the most foundational concepts, making sense of everything is practically impossible otherwise. With our memberships, we'll fill in everything that you've been missing. And coming soon EDU 2.0, an update on Eurodollar University with new designed course material more structured content, including both a browser and smartphone app. Check it out here:https://eurodollar.university/membershipsWorld losing more barrels of oil each day than in two 1970s crises combined, IEA chief says – videohttps://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2026/mar/23/world-losing-more-barrels-of-oil-each-day-than-in-two-1970s-crises-combined-iea-chief-says-videoIEA chief: current oil and gas crisis worse than 1973, 1979, 2022 togetherhttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iea-chief-current-oil-gas-crisis-worse-than-1973-1979-2002-together-2026-04-07/Korean travelers left stranded as Mideast turmoil pushes airlines to slash routeshttps://www.koreaherald.com/article/10711811Jet fuel supply concerns grow as war with Iran drags on, airlines cut flightshttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/07/iran-war-jet-fuel-airlines.htmlItaly Sets Jet Fuel Limits at Some Airports on Supply Gaphttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-05/italy-sets-jet-fuel-limits-at-some-airports-on-supply-shortageDelta Increases Checked Bag Charges by Up to $50 After Fuel Costs Risehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/delta-air-will-boost-fees-on-baggage-amid-surging-oil-pricesUnited Airlines hikes checked bag fee by $10 as fuel prices continue to climbhttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/02/united-airlines-raises-checked-bag-fees-fuel-prices-climb.htmlJet Fuel Spot Prices Over 60 Days https://www.airlines.org/dataset/argus-us-jet-fuel-index/Iran War Fallout: Airlines Slash Thousands Of Flights Amid Global Fuel Shortageshttps://simpleflying.com/iran-war-airline-flight-cancellations-fuel-shortage/FRBNY SCEhttps://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Jamie Dimon, the head of the country's largest bank, wrote his annual shareholder letter accompanying the firm's annual report. Filled with numerous charts touting the company's successes and thousands of words reinforcing them, it is a single one that sticks out like a sore thumb and therefore defines the entire effort. And, yes, it is about the private credit situation. Of that, he said “probably.” Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. To watch a replay of our webinar, click below. https://youtube.com/live/dkgSJvjWs5M?feature=shareTo take advantage of our limited-time Eurodollar University subscription offer to get access to all EDU materials, reports, and data, visit the link below:https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offer----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.jpmorganchase.com/ir/annual-report/2025/ar-ceo-lettersRecession odds climb on Wall Street as economy shows cracks beneath the surfacehttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/recession-odds-climb-on-wall-street-as-economy-shows-cracks-beneath-the-surface.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Almost four hundred thousand American workers dropped out of the labor force in March, setting yet a new low in labor participation. Why? There are no jobs, a fact confirmed by both the employment estimate plus an utterly dismal hiring rate from JOLTS, one that rivaled January and February 2009. There's more, too. S&P Global said the services sector contracted for the first time in three years last month and a decline in its employment index, showing how the oil price shock is already starting to sting. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre-------------------------------------------------------------In a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That's why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on.If you don't have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University's comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you. Visit our Substack page to sign up: https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com-------------------------------------------------------------S&P Global US Services PMI March 2026https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/cc86952bb550465d9093b048d7bfdeb8https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Oil prices are absolutely soaring...AND CRASHING. Yes, at the same time. The main US petroleum benchmark surged by a whopping $11.42 a barrel on Thursday alone, the last trading day before the Good Friday holiday. And one key benchmark clocked in above $140. Yet, the rest of oil futures aren't soaring at all. In fact, contracts for oil early next year are under $70 per barrel right now - more importantly they've been falling for a couple weeks already. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. To watch a replay of our webinar, click below. https://youtube.com/live/dkgSJvjWs5M?feature=shareTo take advantage of our limited-time Eurodollar University subscription offer to get access to all EDU materials, reports, and data, visit the link below:https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offer----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
First, we have our "subprime is contained" moment from the Fed. Second, the run on Blue Owl is "unprecedented." Third, and more important than either of those, it's ***who*** is doing the running. In its disclosure, the sad owl let slip the truth underneath more ridiculous spin. When investors demand 20% to 40% out of your top funds, it's finally time to stop pretending this is all nothing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. To watch a replay of our webinar, click below. https://youtube.com/live/dkgSJvjWs5M?feature=shareTo take advantage of our limited-time Eurodollar University subscription offer to get access to all EDU materials, reports, and data, visit the link below:https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offer----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Blue Owl Limits Redemptions on Private Credit Funds After Massive Exit Requestshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-02/blue-owl-bdcs-impose-caps-after-facing-41-22-requests-to-exitBlue Owl struck by $5.4bn of redemption requestshttps://www.ft.com/content/f4320148-3d81-4bd0-9ab6-053a5bade188?syn-25a6b1a6=1Powell: We do not see systemic risks from private credithttps://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/financial-stability/7975526/powell-we-do-not-see-systemic-risks-from-private-creditCNBC Exclusive: Transcript: Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett Speaks with CNBC's Becky Quick on “Squawk Box” Todayhttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/31/cnbc-exclusive-transcript-berkshire-hathaway-chairman-warren-buffett-speaks-with-cnbcs-becky-quick-on-squawk-box-today.htmlPrivate Credit's CLO Machine Ramps Up in Push to Raise More Cashhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-02/private-credit-s-clo-machine-ramps-up-in-push-to-raise-more-cash
Thanks to Monarch for partnering with me! Start your free trial and get 50% off your first year of total money clarity using my link https://monarchmoney.yt.link/WW7Xqyc or code euro50.Oracle announced it will be laying off tens of thousands of its employees in an attempt to save cash. Not that long ago the company could borrow any insane amount it wanted. In other words, the proposed job cuts at Oracle offer more confirmation of credit market stress. So do the layoffs Block had announced in late February. The cycle has completely flipped, including Fitch admitting one form of selective default is at a 14-year high while UBS locks up one European fund for three years!Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisOracle cutting thousands in latest layoff round as company continues to ramp AI spendinghttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/31/oracle-layoffs-ai-spending.htmlOracle announces Equity and Debt Financing Plan for Calendar Year 2026https://investor.oracle.com/investor-news/news-details/2026/Oracle-announces-Equity-and-Debt-Financing-Plan-for-Calendar-Year-2026/default.aspxUBS gates €400mn property fund for up to 3 yearshttps://www.ft.com/content/67d6e6ab-724c-4e23-b806-51fed911b766?syn-25a6b1a6=1U.S. Private Credit Defaults Ease to 5.4% in February 2026https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/us-private-credit-defaults-ease-to-5-4-in-february-2026-18-03-2026Private Credit's Investor Exodus Spreads to Consumer Loanshttps://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/private-credits-investor-exodus-spreads-to-consumer-loans-de2507d7Non-Cash-Generating Private-Credit Loans Rise to a 14-Year Peak, Fitch Sayshttps://www.wsj.com/articles/non-cash-generating-private-credit-loans-rise-to-a-14-year-peak-fitch-says-02ed4b94https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The question everyone should be asking themselves right now, this second, is why isn't oil $130 per barrel? Today. Right now. When you look around the world, there are a lot of indications which strongly suggest crude is being drastically underpriced. A lot of it has to do with uncertainty, and I mean that in a very real sense – you don't know if tomorrow the war's over and tanker traffic spools up which means the crude price collapses. But that doesn't fully account for the sheer scale of what's already happened. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. To watch a replay of our webinar, click below. https://youtube.com/live/dkgSJvjWs5M?feature=shareTo take advantage of our limited-time Eurodollar University subscription offer to get access to all EDU materials, reports, and data, visit the link below:https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offer----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Hormuz Tracker: Saudi Crude Heads to Pakistan in Rare Transithttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-29/hormuz-tracker-saudi-crude-heads-to-pakistan-in-rare-transitThe Strait of Hormuz Oil Shock Is Now Heading Westhttps://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-iran-war-hormuz-closure-oil-shock/Asia's Air Travel Crisis Risks Spreading on Iran War's Jet Fuel Squeezehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-27/air-travel-crisis-risks-spreading-on-iran-war-s-jet-fuel-squeezePressure Mounts on Europe Diesel Supply as Tankers Turn Awayhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-30/tankers-carrying-diesel-toward-europe-change-course-in-atlantichttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Bond rates have completely reversed course and are falling again despite oil prices that haven't budged. This is a clear warning that central bankers are already out of time for their rate hikes and inflation scenarios. In fact, inflation expectations in the marketplace which never got high to be begin with have collapsed in an ominous sign. Together with a surge in repo fails and other dollar tightening signals, including a sharp rise in the dollar exchange rate, the bond market is clearly worried the oil shock has blown past the point of no return. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. To watch a replay of our webinar, click below. https://youtube.com/live/dkgSJvjWs5M?feature=shareTo take advantage of our limited-time Eurodollar University subscription offer to get access to all EDU materials, reports, and data, visit the link below:https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offer----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
It's only been a little less than a month, but the economic and financial fallout from the Iran conflict is already taking shape as we search for that point of no return. Sentiment has dropped, economic activity is threatened, even stocks are now in correction territory across the board. While central bankers especially over in Europe are in full-blown inflation panic, it's a much different story emerging from the real economy. This thing is quickly taking on all the characteristics of a full-blown oil shock. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre----------------------------------------------------------------------------------With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. To watch a replay of our webinar, click below. https://youtube.com/live/dkgSJvjWs5M?feature=shareTo take advantage of our limited-time Eurodollar University subscription offer to get access to all EDU materials, reports, and data, visit the link below:https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offer----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Many top European bankers did not do themselves any favors when pressed on the private credit bust, preferring to hide behind semantics or deflect at every chance. One who stood out was Deutsch Bank's vice chair of global macro who bluntly stated if it wasn't for Iran the private credit crisis would be all anyone would be talking about right now. For whatever the political spin among the rest of them, European bank balance sheets don't lie. Wait until you see what they've been up to. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. To watch a replay of our webinar, click below. https://youtube.com/live/dkgSJvjWs5M?feature=shareTo take advantage of our limited-time Eurodollar University subscription offer to get access to all EDU materials, reports, and data, visit the link below:https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offer----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Think private credit fears are overblown? Think again, says Deutschehttps://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/think-private-credit-fears-are-overblown-think-again-says-deutsche-20260327-p5zj5nPrivate Credit Jitters Put European Banking Chiefs on Defensehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-19/private-credit-jitters-put-european-banking-chiefs-on-defenseECB to Start Fresh Checks on Banks' Private Credit Exposureshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-24/ecb-to-start-fresh-checks-on-banks-exposure-to-private-creditGerman Business Outlook Sinks as Iran Puts Recovery ‘on Ice'https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-25/german-business-outlook-sinks-as-iran-war-puts-recovery-on-icehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The oil shock has moved way beyond merely being a price problem. The blockage at Hormuz has already created a very real physical shortage of fuel across much of Asia, and it's now threatening to hit Europe according to the CEO of Shell Energy. It's only been about four weeks but we're seeing major disruptions already, from Australia to South Korea, India, Egypt. Among the hardest hit is the Philippines. There are reports today some airlines are being told to plan for rationing fuel in a few places. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Australia Fuel Crunch Expands to Hundreds of Gas Stationshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-24/australia-fuel-shortages-expand-to-hundreds-of-service-stationsSecuring Australia's fuel supplyhttps://www.energy.gov.au/news/securing-australias-fuel-supplyEgypt mandates new closing time for malls and cafes to curb energy usehttps://www.egyptindependent.com/egypt-mandates-new-closing-time-for-malls-and-cafes-to-curb-energy-use/India Turns to Dirty Fuels to Fight Crippling Supply Squeezehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-12/india-turns-to-dirty-fuels-to-fight-off-worst-supply-disruption-mmnfhzzsMarcos promises 'flow of oil' as Philippines declares energy emergencyhttps://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3ex8ez3717oAirline boss flags possible fuel rationing in Philippines as supplies dwindlehttps://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3347804/airline-boss-flags-possible-fuel-rationing-philippines-supplies-dwindleSigns of Jet Fuel Hoarding Emerge in Asia on Iran Oil Shockhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-25/signs-of-jet-fuel-hoarding-emerge-in-asia-after-iran-oil-shockShell Boss Warns Europe Is Next After Asia Suffers Fuel Squeezehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-24/shell-boss-warns-europe-is-next-after-asia-suffers-fuel-squeezeOil giants raise the alarm over energy shortages as Iran war drags onhttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/iran-war-oil-shell-totalenergies-energy-strait-of-hormuz.htmlS&P Global March 2026 US PMIshttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/adc91b5cf42442cbb220d5b66b64ec7dIndian police manage long lines as panic grows over fuel shortageshttps://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/3/25/indian-police-manage-long-lines-as-panic-grows-over-fuel-shortageshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Another major development in private credit crisis - yes, it is a crisis now. Moody's downgraded a $13 billion KKR co-managed private credit fund, citing "asset quality challenges." This is a huge escalation for three key reasons we'll go over here.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Retail investors pull billions from private capital's credit gold minehttps://www.ft.com/content/3103e960-5e54-4cff-a439-b61a77ab21bd?syn-25a6b1a6=1Blackstone's Gray: Market ‘noise' fueled record redemptions from world's largest private credit fundhttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/03/blackstone-private-credit-fund.htmlMoody's https://ratings.moodys.com/ratings-news/461835
Blackstone's $83 billion BCred fund just reported its first monthly loss due to actual credit problems. However, it's never credit losses that kill you; it's always the forced selling, the liquidations. Financial crises begin with small credit losses and then snowball into something far greater because the issues here aren't numbers on a spreadsheet and seemingly reasonable expected loss calculations. This all comes down to trust and information. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Jon Gray Blackstone Presidenthttps://x.com/blackstone/status/2035088934753935648?Blackstone Private Credit Fund Has First Monthly Loss Since 2022https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-20/blackstone-private-credit-fund-has-first-monthly-loss-since-2022Private Credit Firm Ares Holds Town Hall to Reassure Staff on Market Volatility https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/ares-holds-townhall-to-reassure-staff-on-market-uncertaintiesAres CEO Says UBS Call on 15% Private Debt Default ‘Absolutely Wrong'https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-03/arougheti-says-15-private-debt-default-call-absolutely-wrongNew York Fed Sells Remainder of Maiden Lane LLC Securities; Approximately $2.5 Billion Net Gain Generated for U.S. Public from the Portfoliohttps://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/markets/2018/an180918Maiden Lane Transactionshttps://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/maidenlane.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Global financial markets are all over the place. We've talked about commodities being crushed, getting liquidated due to serious and underappreciated funding stress. The other side of that, rising dollar and flight to safety. And on the flipside, growing risk aversion which has markets especially overseas rolling over. Meanwhile, bonds are struggling because central banks are beginning to really panic especially over in Europe.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Liquidations, not mere selling. There's more going on behind the scenes than you think. Critical metals being liquidated means a growing worldwide dollar problem. Possibly a big one. While central bankers are running around talking about rate hikes because they wrongly believe oil prices are inflationary, where it actually matters we're already seeing the total opposite only starting with gold's worst week in forever. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Global Risks Renew Dollar Demand in the Currency Swaps Markethttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-03/global-risks-renew-dollar-demand-in-the-currency-swaps-marketThe Dollar's Double Life: Not All Dollar Appreciations Are Born Equal for the Cross-Currency Basishttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/fut.70081https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Sales of newly built homes crashed by a massive 17.6% in January, with a 44% drop in the Northeast and 34% slide in the Midwest. Of course, everyone is trying to blame it on weather but sales were already weakening in December and those in the Western part of the country were down by a whopping 22%. It's now like we've haven't been following a macro bust in the property sector. Economists just don't want to admit rate cuts didn't produce the recovery they were expecting. And now homebuyers have to deal with volatility across interest rates because central bankers are doing exactly what we thought they would in response to the oil shock. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
McDonalds is doing it again as the economy is now in a race against time. The fast food giant is creating a $3 value deal after having brought back the $5 value menu in the middle of 2024. The timing wasn't an accident back then. That previous time, it was confirmation the labor market had indeed shifted to flat Beveridge - even if it took almost those two years for the payroll data to finally and fully pick up on it. But in company after company, we're seeing major changes, not just McDs. Pepsi. Dollar Tree. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Diesel tops $5 a gallon for the first time since 2022. Here's what it means for the economy.https://www.cbsnews.com/news/diesel-prices-5-dollars-gallon-economic-impact/Dollar Tree Winning Wealthier Shoppers With Higher-Priced Itemshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-16/dollar-tree-falls-after-annual-outlook-disappoints-investorsMcDonald's newest $3 value menu is sounding an alarm about America's K-shaped economyhttps://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/mcdonald-s-newest-3-value-menu-is-sounding-an-alarm-about-america-s-k-shaped-economy/ar-AA1YQVnZhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
It was maybe inevitable that the oil shock would lead to a dollar shock especially around Asia. The sudden, sharp rise in oil prices is essentially a margin call in dollars which hits the biggest energy importers the hardest. Today, the biggest economy in Southeast Asia just tightened currency controls restricting dollar availability there, and confirming the monetary situation is in a precarious position already. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Meta Platforms is reportedly considering laying off over 20% of its workforce. The company didn't confirm anything, but it also didn't deny the thrust of the rumor, either. The purpose of these theoretical job cuts does not appear to be replacing employees with AI bots, instead it sure looks like the company is trying desperately to conserve a lot cash which raises a bunch of questions about debt and debt markets.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Meta planning sweeping layoffs as AI costs mount: Reutershttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/14/meta-planning-sweeping-layoffs-as-ai-costs-mount-reuters.htmlBIS Financing the AI infrastructure boom: on- and off-balance sheet borrowinghttps://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2603u.htmHow AI Companies Are Keeping Debt Off Their Balance Sheetshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-31/meta-xai-starting-trend-for-billions-in-off-balance-sheet-debthttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Deutsche Bank. Wells Fargo. Both global systemically important banks are sitting here watching their stocks get pounded in the same way as BlackRock or Blackstone. Thankfully, not as bad as Blue Owl. Yet. And it is for the same reason. We know the private credit industry and shadow banks are in really bad shape. Markets are already looking outside of them to who might be next to have pay for really bad decisions. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
A simply brutal reminder from Canada about the real state of the global economy. The Canadians backed up the US payroll number for February, except in Canada it was the largest loss of jobs since 2022. As one big bank economist put it, this is a “simply brutal” result. While everyone has been talking, really hoping for reflation maybe recovery, the opposite keeps showing up instead. Especially where it comes to employment. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------'Simply brutal': Canada lost 84K jobs in February; unemployment rises to 6.7%https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/simply-brutal-canada-lost-84k-jobs-in-february-unemployment-rises-to-67-123843924.htmlUS Economy Lost Some Momentum, Inflation Held Firm Ahead of Warhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-13/us-consumer-spending-barely-rose-in-january-inflation-stronghttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Now it's Morgan Stanley's turn. Yesterday it was Cliffwater. Before that BlackRock and Blackstone. Of course Blue Owl. Morgan Stanley's $8 billion North Haven Private Income Fund becomes the latest shadow banking giant to both get hit with massive investor withdrawals and to deny most of them. Cliffwater also decided it was going to do the same. No wonder you keep hearing more and more people make 2008 comparisons – and there's one more you definitely need keep in mind. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
It is beginning to look more and more like a slow-motion shadow bank run. Yet another massive fund hit with largescale withdrawals. Not only that, the liquidity pressure also led to more asset sales. But those aren't even the worst of the day's news: that comes from JP Morgan and it has to do with COLLATERAL.-------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web-------------------------------------Cliffwater's $33 Billion Private Credit Fund to See 7%-Plus Redemptionshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-10/cliffwater-s-private-credit-fund-said-to-see-7-plus-redemptionsPimco Sees Crisis of ‘Bad Underwriting' in Private Credithttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/pimco-blames-sloppy-underwriting-for-private-credit-reckoningCliffwater in market with $1B private credit secondary salehttps://pitchbook.com/news/articles/cliffwater-in-market-with-1b-private-credit-secondary-saleJPMorgan Restricts Private Credit Lending After Markdownshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/jpmorgan-marks-down-private-credit-portfolios-ft-reportsSomething on Wall Street 'Smells Like' 2008, Says Former Goldman Sachs Chief. Here's What It Is.https://www.investopedia.com/private-credit-stress-smells-like-2008-says-former-goldman-sachs-chief-blankfein-11920345
We've been covering the macro housing bust for some time, and while it's still there another major problem has come up and for the same reasons. Mortgage delinquencies and even foreclosures have come into the conversation, especially in places like Texas. Rates continue to tick lower but no one is buying houses, home price growth has completely stalled, and now more borrowers are falling behind on their loans. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 1.7% Increase in Februaryhttps://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-1-7-increase-in-februaryCities With the Highest Mortgage Delinquency Rateshttps://wallethub.com/edu/cities-mortgage-delinquency-rates/141263VantageScore CreditGauge™ January 2026: Mortgage Delinquencies Rise as Early-Stage Credit Stress Broadens Across Borrowershttps://vantagescore.com/resources/knowledge-center/press_releases/vantagescore-creditgauge-january-2026-mortgage-delinquencies-rise-as-early-stage-credit-stress-broadens-across-borrowersMortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2025https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2026/02/12/mortgage-delinquencies-increase-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2025HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT REPORThttps://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
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