Podcasts about monetary policy committee

Last week, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) may need to be rationed due to energy capacity constraints limiting deployment. While the Iran conflict threatens widespread price increases, the Monetary Policy Committee expects no further interest rate increases. Workplace disruption has fuelled worries about rapid technological shifts, which currently engage roughly 84% of the domestic boardrooms. Consequently, officials are likely to maintain a cautious holding stance as median pay steadies, preferring to monitor inflation, which is nearing 4%, rather than reacting solely to temporary energy spikes. Meanwhile, domestic retail sales broke a negative spell, securing growth for the first time since spring, from warm-weather retail demand...Stocks featured:Airtel Africa, Tritax Big Box Real Estate Investment Trust and HalmaTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management's own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Some bereaved listeners whose relatives had money put away with National Savings and Investments are facing weeks and months of delay in getting their own money. It comes as NS&I works to track down the accounts of tens of thousands of people who had died, after it admitted keeping nearly half a billion pounds in its coffers that should have been passed to their estates. The state-owned bank has apologised and says its working hard on its plan to ensure those affected are paid what is owed to them, along with returning the processing of current and new bereavement claims to their normal time-frame.The cost of borrowing has been held steady by the Bank of England. On Thursday its Monetary Policy Committee held the Bank Rate at 3.75%. How is that affecting mortgage deals?And, how can young people, who're out of work, find a job? Dan Whitworth reports on a scheme run by the charity Spear to address barriers to work. It comes as University College London publishes research which finds being out of work and education between ages 16 and 24 has long-term consequences for people's employment and finances in midlife. Presenter: Paul Lewis Reporters: Dan Whitworth and Jo Krasner Researcher: Catherine Lund Editor: Jess Quayle Senior News Editor: Sara Wadeson(First broadcast 12pm, Saturday 2nd May 2026)

So what would you rather? A little bit of pain now or a whole lot more later? The Reserve Bank yesterday opted to keep the official cash rate at 2.25%, but the decision to hold was a close-run thing. And we know that now because of the transparency around the decisions being made and a jolly good thing it is too. Governor Dr. Anna Breman had to use her casting vote. The Monetary Policy Committee was evenly split on whether to raise the rate. The three Reserve Bank officials wanted to hold, the external committee members wanted to hike and therefore Governor Breman had to use her casting vote. One of the external committee members, economic consultant Carl Hansen, has given an interview with the Newsroom website explaining why he wanted to shift the rate now. He and the other two external committee members argued it would limit the overall magnitude of the increase in the OCR when it settles at the top of the imminent hiking phase. Translated, that means a bit of pain now is better than a whole lot later. Dr. Breman signalled that a rates rise is very likely when the committee next meets, but how high remains to be seen. And if it starts going up around about July, around about October, which is when the committee meets again, it's not just going to be mortgage holders who feel the pain, the Government will feel the pain too. They don't want to be associated with increased mortgage payments, but that's precisely what will happen. Carl Hansen argues that moving the OCR up a notch now, as in yesterday, would mean rates then wouldn't have to be yanked higher up further down the track. He says the uncertain environment in which we're living and in which we're making decisions won't disappear quickly and he and the other external members felt by going up 2.5% it would be an easier decision to either hold or go up in July. So if the experts don't know, how the hell do we? You've got six people whose job it is to understand the economy, to read the tea leaves and say, okay, this is what we think's going to happen in 18 months to two years and here are the decisions that we're going to make that we best we feel will best support the economy, the environment, the living conditions. It's going to help keep inflation in check, it's not going to stifle growth, this is what we believe. But if they're divided, it just shows how precarious and uncertain the times in which we live are. I like knowing that it was a 50/50 call and I can understand both sides. I can understand what the external committee members are saying, if we increase it just a teeny tiny bit now, it's not it shouldn't dampen spending, it shouldn't dampen growth and then it won't be such a shock if we do have to yank rates up further down the line. But I can also understand where the Reserve Bank officials are coming from too, it's just too uncertain. We don't know, it might fix itself. Although even in saying that, I feel like my extra 15 kilos might just drop off too. You know, hope is not a strategy – it's just a reckon. When you've got an election coming up and when you've got an election where nobody's willing to call how it's going to go, whether we go with a National/ACT/New Zealand First coalition or a Labour/Greens/Te Pāti Māori/independent/whoever they can cobble together coalition, it's too close to call from the polls. So there's uncertainty. If you're in business, you're unlikely, I would imagine, to be investing in extra staff, in capital expenditure, you're not going to be going gangbusters while there's uncertainty. So I get I can totally understand both sides of the coin when it comes to the decision made yesterday. Do you think the call was right? Do you think the Governor was correct in using her casting vote to keep things as they are and that things might come right? That the uncertainty – actually the only thing that is certain is that there will be uncertainty, I think. I cannot see it rectifying itself anytime soon. But was the right call made in holding things steady with an election coming up where nobody's certain what the result is going to be? Is this a time where businesses are just holding tight, keeping steady, not making big investments, not making big decisions, taihoa, wait and see. I'd love to hear from those of you in business, I'd love to hear from those of you with a passing interest in economics and I love being able to see the decisions now. I think it's I think it makes it really interesting. I like the transparency. I am so glad. I don't know. I mean, Governor Breman just seems to be a steady, cool hand which is what we need right now, not some flamboyant rockstar rocking and rolling through the economy because we are still suffering. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank Governor is feeling good about her captain's call to keep the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25%. Anna Breman made the final decision after the six-member Monetary Policy Committee she chairs was evenly split on whether to hike the rate. Breman says she understands the argument for hiking but told Mike Hosking she doesn't think now's the right time. She says financial markets have already tightened quite a lot, and the economy is slowing down, which will reduce pressure on inflation over the medium term. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank Governor acknowledges many Kiwis are doing it very tough right now. Anna Breman used her casting vote today, to keep the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25 percent. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee was evenly split on hiking or holding the rate. Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper explained further. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank Governor says she's mindful of the weak economy, as she weighs up Official Cash Rate settings. Anna Breman made the final call to keep the OCR unchanged at 2.25 percent today. The Monetary Policy Committee had been evenly split on hiking or holding, and is now signalling it'll go up in September. Breman says they consider the factors pushing inflation up, but also the weak economy and labour market that could send it downwards. "We aim to keep inflation low and stable, but we should also avoid unnecessary volatility in the economy." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank Governor acknowledges many Kiwis are doing it very tough right now. Anna Breman used her casting vote today, to keep the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25 percent. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee was evenly split on hiking or holding the rate. Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper explained further. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank Governor says she's mindful of the weak economy, as she weighs up Official Cash Rate settings. Anna Breman made the final call to keep the OCR unchanged at 2.25 percent today. The Monetary Policy Committee had been evenly split on hiking or holding, and is now signalling it'll go up in September. Breman says they consider the factors pushing inflation up, but also the weak economy and labour market that could send it downwards. "We aim to keep inflation low and stable, but we should also avoid unnecessary volatility in the economy." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley says the window for low mortgage rates has closed, with multiple Official Cash Rate hikes expected later this year following the Reserve Bank's decision to hold the rate at 2.25% yesterday. The RBNZ's Monetary Policy Statement said Official Cash Rate (OCR) increases would likely be required this year, predicting inflation would peak at 4.3% in the September quarter before returning to 2% mid-2027. Tuffley told Ryan Bridge people had been fixing their mortgages at higher interest rates since it became clear that there would be no further cuts to the OCR and it would soon start increasing. The Monetary Policy Committee was predicting the average interest rate on outstanding mortgages would climb to 5.3% over the next year, up from 4.9% in March. Tuffley said that increase was “not too dramatic” although the impacts would show up slowly. “Your window for a low mortgage ... really did slam shut late last year, and unfortunately we've already seen rates that have climbed to some degree and that will continue.” LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

COSATU is urging the South African Reserve Bank to keep interest rates unchanged at this week's Monetary Policy Committee meeting. The federation says rising inflation is driven by global factors, not local demand.COSATU warns that any repo rate hike would further strain struggling workers and slow an economy already facing low growth and high unemployment. We spoke to COSATU Parliamentary Coordinator, Matthew Parks for reaction.

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Chief UK Economist Bruna Skarica discuss why they see a more constructive UK outlook than markets do, despite energy, fiscal and political risks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Bruna Skarica: And I'm Bruna Skarica, Morgan Stanley's Chief UK Economist. Andrew Sheets: Today, the debate around growth and debt in the United Kingdom. It's Wednesday, May 20th at 2pm in London. Bruna, I'm so glad you could join us today because I actually really did want to talk about what's going on here in the United Kingdom. I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that this is the country where you hear some of the strongest divergence of opinions. Pessimists point to political uncertainty, vulnerability to oil prices from the Strait of Hormuz, and rising bond yields. And yet, UK growth this year has been pretty good. Inflation is set to come down, and the currency's been pretty stable, hardly the stuff of big instability. So, Bruna, I was hoping you could help us set the scene. Let's start with how you see the economy. Bruna Skarica: I actually think your framing is perfect. For the past five years, there has been a striking divergence of opinion on the UK, which I do think mimics to a degree some of the divisions on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. The question really is – has the country underwent structural changes in the past decade of supply-side shocks such that its potential growth is very low, perhaps as low as 1 percent on the year. And has the inflationary process shifted in such a way that, for example, we need much higher jobless rate in order to generate enough economic slack to get inflation down to 2 percent? Or the other question is, has the UK just had a unique string of external shocks amplified perhaps by domestic policy choices, which mean that we have seen a prolonged period of low growth and high inflation – but again, without major structural changes. We are in the more constructive structural camp. I actually think that's probably Morgan Stanley's biggest out of consensus call in the UK. In recent years in particular, we have seen quite robust CapEx. And last year, actually very healthy private sector productivity gains. When you adjust for accurate labor market data, UK's private sector productivity growth is just under 2 percent as of the end of 2025, actually not too far off from the U.S. But for these good structural trends to persist and continue to improve, we do need a more supportive cyclical environment. And there, unfortunately, given the rise in oil prices, it's hard to be overly constructive about growth and inflation in the UK this year. We've downgraded our growth forecasts to around 1 percent over [20]26 and [20]27, and we have lifted our inflation projections by around 150 basis points at their peak to a peak of around 3.5 percent later in the year. Andrew Sheets: So, Bruna, how much does the price of oil or the price of natural gas matter for this outlook, especially as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut? Bruna Skarica: It does matter a fair bit. We use Morgan Stanley's commodity team's forecasts in our own scenario analyses for the UK economy. Now, their base case still sees a gentle decline in oil prices this year, which leads to outcomes I've already mentioned. The activity flatlines from the second quarter, we have a rise in inflation from April onwards, but we don't have a recession. However, if we fail to see any movement lower in oil, and as you rightly pointed out, natural gas prices as well; or if we even saw a move higher over the summer, we do think that risks of a recession would be quite pronounced in the second half of the year. UK consumers are already in for a year of flat real disposable income growth. Higher prices of food and energy than in our base case could result in even lower discretionary spending growth than what we're already modeling. And if the Bank of England had to hike rates in this inflationary scenario, we think they would act twice in this kind of a scenario. We also have these tight financial conditions which would weigh on household spending. Andrew Sheets: So, Bruna, I think that's a great segue into that out-of-consensus call that we have on the Bank of England. You know, the market is expecting the Bank of England to raise interest rates. We think that they'll be on hold. And if you take a step back, it's a view that, kind of, puts the UK and the Bank of England a little bit between the Federal Reserve, which we think is going to be lowering rates over the next twelve months modestly, and the European Central Bank, which we think will raise rates in the near term. Could you talk a bit more about why you think it will remain on hold? And why you differ from what the market's seeing? Bruna Skarica: Yeah, absolutely. So, in our base case, the one where we do see a bit of a decline in oil and gas prices over the course of this year, we think the Bank of England remains on hold. It's important to remember that they were about to cut rates, prior to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. So, there is a bit of restrictiveness there in the starting stance, which we think can just be maintained for a longer period of time than would've otherwise been the case. And so, for the Bank of England to avoid having to tighten rates. Now, with respect to the market, I think it's fair to say that the market price is a probability-weighted outcome, where there is some chance, a non-negligible one, that the Bank of England will have to hike rates aggressively if oil prices were to rise from here. To give you a bit of clarity here, bank's own analyses suggests that in a scenario where oil prices were to rise towards $130 per barrel and stay there for a few months, the bank could hike rates by four times. Now, it's interesting that in this scenario, the bank actually doesn't forecast a recession. Now, we think that in the case of such elevated commodity prices, as I've already mentioned, we would certainly see high inflation, potentially as high as 6 percent, but also recessionary impulses. So, even in the scenario of elevated oil prices, we think the bank could only deliver around two hikes. And so, this kind of probability-weighted outcome that we have, which differs a little bit from our model case, even that is actually fairly lower than what the market is pricing. So, I think that's maybe one of the main differences that we have versus the market. The market is expecting a repeat of 2022, so elevated inflation with growth just about holding on. We disagree that's possible because there's far less scope for a fiscal response to shield growth from an inflationary external shock. Andrew Sheets: But Bruna, maybe I'll take even a bigger step back here because to borrow a British phrase, it almost seems like some of these debates over oil prices are kind of small beer compared to these two big questions around the UK. Which are, you know, concerns over a lack of productivity growth and concerns that the UK economy is just, kind of, poorly positioned over the long term – especially in the wake of Brexit and concern over the fiscal situation. And this idea that, well, government debt is historically high for the UK, concern that that will continue. And I think it's no exaggeration to say that when you talk to investors about the UK, those are often, kind of, two of the big questions that hang over the debate. So, your brief thoughts on both of those issues. And again, where you think the market might be potentially surprised? Bruna Skarica: So, one of the most interesting things when I talk to clients is when I mention some of these statistics around measured cyclical productivity growth last year, they're often very, very surprised. And we do think it's more important to talk about this because there is evidence, I would say nascent evidence, that UK is benefiting from the AI tailwind. We are seeing more CapEx adoption. We are seeing slower hiring, but more resilient growth, which, as I say, results in cyclical productivity growth that looks very robust, especially in UK's historical context. In the last ten years, of course, UK's productivity growth has been very lackluster. So, over the course of this year, I think that's actually my primary focus to see how much of this uplift in productivity last year is cyclical and perhaps will dissipate over 2026 with the slowdown in growth. And how much of it was actually structural. Now, in terms of the fiscal question, you know, one thing that's interesting to mention is the UK is, per IMF calculations, in the middle of the most severe fiscal consolidation amongst its G7 peers. Medium-term fiscal plans deliver a decline in deficit to below 2 percent of GDP by 2030. Again, this is hard to square with gilt yields where they currently stand. So, it's fair to say that the market is just more focused on the risks of delivery. For example, departmental spending settlements look challenging to deliver. Ministry of Defense is looking for a [£]30 billion top-up to its budgets. Labor backbenchers have recently come out seeking for a bit more capital expenditure. Political volatility is high. We are actually quite confident around our 2026 fiscal forecasts. We're looking for a deficit at 4 percent. But when it comes to 2027, I think it's fair to say that risks here really depend on the political trajectory with risks skewed, I think, towards a slightly higher deficit than around 3.5 percent, which we have in our base case. Andrew Sheets: But Bruna, just to be very direct, is it fair to say that for investors who are very concerned about productivity growth in the UK, you'd argue that that actually could be a bit better than people are expecting as capital deepens? And that for investors afraid of the fiscal trajectory, that actually could be one of the best fiscal trajectories In the G7? Bruna Skarica: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, one of our recent outlook titles was “Everything is Relative,” and that's exactly the point that we always try to make with the UK. It seems like it has a lot of idiosyncratic fiscal problems, but I would say a lot of its fiscal challenges are very similar to other DM countries – demographic aging, slowing in potential GDP growth. And when it comes to productivity growth, I'm not trying to argue that we're likely to see UK's potential GDP growth in excess of 2 percent anytime soon. However, we do think that the picture is actually much better in terms of productivity growth than perhaps what the average market participants think is the case. Andrew Sheets: Finally, Bruna, just a word on politics. I'm mindful that we have a global audience. And for those less steeped in the latest UK news, what's been happening? And what are the developments that investors are watching out for? Bruna Skarica: Yeah, absolutely. So, we had local elections in the UK in early May, and they delivered quite sizable losses for the governing Labour Party. Since then, a number of Labour MPs, Members of Parliament, just under 100 of them, called on Prime Minister Starmer to resign. Now, challenging a Labour leader and a prime minister in this case is not an easy process to trigger.However, Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is now looking to enter the House of Commons. He will be contesting a by-election, most likely on June 18th. I would say that's the key date to watch out for from here. Andy Burnham has previously said UK politicians should be less focused on the bond market, but perhaps it's worth reiterating. More recently, he said he supports the current fiscal rules, which of course require debt-to-GDP ratio to be on the declining trajectory over the next five years. Now, Andrew, for you, what stands out in the pricing of the UK story? Andrew Sheets: Well, Bruna, I really think this is the country where across everything that we look at, there's the biggest gap, I think, between kind of conventional wisdom and what we at Morgan Stanley are forecasting.The market's conventional wisdom is that productivity growth is going to be very weak and very bad. That's not what you see in the numbers and is in our forecast. The market thinks the government finances are very weak. As you mentioned, relative to the G7, they're on a pretty good trajectory and at a pretty good level. And I think this is also a market where you have some interesting risk premium. I mean, again, we talk a lot in this podcast about how little risk premium there is in a lot of different asset classes. That's not the case in the UK. The government bond market, in our view, is offering a lot of risk premium to take on the risk of owning the government debt. And, you know, one example of that is, you know, you look at what interest rate is implied on a UK 10-year government bond 10 years from now. It's implying that yield is 6.6 percent. That's a very high yield, especially if you think that growth is going to be weak in this country. So, I think it's a really interesting macro story. It's one certainly where we at Morgan Stanley differ, and where there's some risk premium on offer. So, I'm so glad you could join us today to dig into it in more detail. Bruna Skarica: Absolutely. Thank you so much for the invite. Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

On Episode 867 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Pranav Haldea, Managing Director at PRIME Database Group as well as Professor Ram Singh, Director of the Delhi School of Economics and member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India.SHOW NOTES(00:00) Stories of the Day(00:50) How long will it take for energy supplies to stabilise if the war ends?(06:26) India could be emerging from a Goldilocks economy, what does that mean?(20:37) How Indian markets are getting more institutionalised(26:31) Which is the world's best selling drug now?Check out our Live Earnings tracker: https://earnings.thecore.in/For more of our coverage check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠thecore.in⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to our Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow us on:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ |⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ |⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ |⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Linkedin⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ |⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Youtube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Major changes are set to make future Official Cash Rate decisions far more transparent. The RBNZ's Monetary Policy Committee will release details of who voted which way to the public if they're unable to come to consensus. Committee members are also encouraged to speak openly about monetary policy. Former Reserve Bank Special Advisor Geof Mortlock told Mike Hosking that he and other economists have been advising Treasury and the Minister to move in this direction for some time. He says it'll strengthen the accountability and transparency of the Committee. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A former senior economist at the Reserve Bank is calling releasing details of who voted which way on the Official Cash Rate a 'baby step'. It's been agreed by the Minister of Finance and the Monetary Policy Committee that vote details will be released publicly if committee members are unable to come to consensus on the OCR. The charter comes into effect today. Michael Reddell says it's fairly rare for the committee not to come to a consensus, but it's a good step. "So I'm not criticising it, it's just that it's not a particularly bold move." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A former senior economist at the Reserve Bank is calling releasing details of who voted which way on the Official Cash Rate a 'baby step'. It's been agreed by the Minister of Finance and the Monetary Policy Committee that vote details will be released publicly if committee members are unable to come to consensus on the OCR. The charter comes into effect today. Michael Reddell says it's fairly rare for the committee not to come to a consensus, but it's a good step. "So I'm not criticising it, it's just that it's not a particularly bold move." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The Q1 2026 CPI data is finally in, landing at a ho-hum 3.1%. While it's technically above the target band, the market has already moved on to the next big question: exactly when will the RBNZ hold its nerve no longer and lift the OCR?This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down the inflation stats and why July vs September is the current 50/50 bet for the first rate hike. We also dive into the latest Chart Pack data showing a soggy 4% year-on-year drop in sales volumes for the quarter, and respond to a listener request for a dedicated rural property market roundup.This week we discuss:Q1 CPI data: Why 3.1% was exactly what the market expected and why the calm before the storm remains the theme for the beginning of 2026.OCR timing: July or September? We look at the data gaps facing the Monetary Policy Committee in their upcoming meetings.Soggy sales volumes: Breaking down the 4% quarterly decline in transactions and what it says about buyer/seller capitulation.Lending rule speculation: Could the RBNZ use LVR or DTI settings as a relief valve while the OCR stays high?Rural roundup: A deep dive into agricultural debt, input costs vs output prices, and why farm sales might actually be looking up.Te Kaha stadium: Kelvin reports back from the opening Super Round at Christchurch's new world-class venue.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

India is recalibrating its economic strategy as it resumes Iranian oil imports under a US waiver, likely settling payments in rupees while managing currency pressures. The RBI may revive crisis-era tools to stabilise the rupee, even as policymakers remain comfortable with a weaker band. To cushion businesses from war-related disruptions, the government plans a ₹2.5 lakh crore credit guarantee scheme. Meanwhile, the Monetary Policy Committee faces a complex decision, balancing inflation risks, liquidity support, and stability in a volatile global environment. All this and more in the latest edition of Moneycontrol Editor's Picks.

"When you look at the world now, does it look more uncertain or less uncertain?" In December 2025, the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee (FPC) answered that question by cutting the equity capital requirement for UK banks. David Aikman (NIESR) and John Vickers (University of Oxford), two former senior Bank insiders who helped to design the regulatory framework post-GFC, think the committee got it wrong.The FPC lowered the benchmark capital requirement from 14% to 13% of risk-weighted assets, a move that could free up roughly £30 billion of capital across the UK banking system. Aikman and Vickers see no compelling economic reason for the change. They argue that the 2015 benchmark was already set too low, built on questionable assumptions about how well resolution frameworks would work. Since 2015, Brexit, the pandemic, and a sharply stretched fiscal position have all increased the likely cost of a future crisis. The practical effect of the loosening may not even be more lending, but higher dividends and share buybacks. And the December decision may signal a weakening of the leverage ratio backstop, the constraint that limits bank borrowing regardless of how risk weights are applied.The research behind this episode:Aikman, David, and John Vickers. 2026. "The Bank of England's Capital Mistake." VoxEU, 15 January 2026. To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, David Aikman, and John Vickers. 2026. "The Bank of England's Capital Mistake." VoxTalks Economics (podcast). Assign this as extra listening. The citation above is formatted and ready for a reading list or VLE.About the guestsDavid Aikman is Director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). He worked at the Bank of England from 2003 to 2020, where he served as Technical Head of Division in Financial Stability and was centrally involved in the creation of the Financial Policy Committee. His research spanning macroprudential regulation, systemic risk, and the macroeconomics of financial crises has made him one of the leading academic voices on bank capital policy in the UK.Sir John Vickers is Warden of All Souls College and Professor of Economics at the University of Oxford. He served as Chief Economist and a member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England, and chaired the Independent Commission on Banking from 2010 to 2011, which recommended substantially higher capital requirements than those subsequently adopted. His research spanning industrial economics, competition policy, and financial regulation has shaped UK banking policy for two decades.Research cited in this episodeEquity capital requirements specify the minimum proportion of a bank's assets that must be funded by shareholders' equity rather than borrowed money. Equity is the only form of funding that can absorb losses without triggering insolvency: if a bank suffers unexpected losses, its shareholders bear them first. In the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis, some large institutions held equity equivalent to as little as two or three percent of their total exposures, implying leverage of up to forty times; a small shock was enough to render them insolvent. The post-crisis repair effort was designed to ensure that could not happen again.Risk-weighted assets (RWAs) are the denominator against which capital requirements are measured. Rather than applying the capital ratio to the raw value of all assets, the framework deflates each asset by an estimated risk factor: a mortgage backed by collateral is treated as less risky than an unsecured corporate loan, for example. Capital requirements are then expressed as a percentage of this risk-adjusted total. The approach creates significant complexity and depends heavily on the accuracy of the risk weights; much of the story of 2008 was that regulators allowed banks to attach implausibly low risk weights to their exposures, understating the true leverage in the system.The Financial Policy Committee (FPC) is the Bank of England body responsible for macroprudential oversight of the UK financial system. Created in 2013, it sits above the individual regulators to take a system-wide view of whether risks are building and whether the financial system as a whole has adequate resilience. One of its primary tools is setting the overall capital requirement benchmark for UK banks. In 2015 it set that benchmark at 14% of risk-weighted assets; in December 2025 it reduced it to 13%.The leverage ratio is an alternative measure of bank capitalisation that does not apply risk weights. It expresses equity as a simple percentage of total assets, regardless of what those assets are. The UK leverage ratio backstop currently stands at around 3 to 4%, implying maximum leverage of roughly twenty-five to thirty times for systemically important banks. Vickers and Aikman note that for some UK banks the backstop has become the binding constraint, which they regard as a warning sign: it suggests that risk-weighted measures are understating actual leverage, not that the backstop should be relaxed.Resolution frameworks are the legal and operational mechanisms that allow regulators to manage the failure of a bank without a taxpayer bailout, by imposing losses on shareholders and creditors in an orderly way. A central assumption in the FPC's 2015 capital benchmark was that resolution would work effectively in a future crisis, which justified a lower capital requirement. Vickers and Aikman are sceptical: the experience of Credit Suisse in 2023, which required a state-assisted rescue despite the existence of resolution plans, illustrates that orderly resolution of a major institution cannot be taken for granted.Basel 3.1 is the latest package of international banking regulatory standards agreed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, designed to address weaknesses in how risk weights are calculated. Its implementation in the UK is scheduled for 2027, nineteen years after the 2008 crisis. The FPC's December 2025 decision is partly contingent on Basel 3.1 being implemented as planned; Aikman notes that there have been repeated international delays and rollbacks, and that the UK's ability to move ahead unilaterally is constrained by what other major jurisdictions do.The 2023 banking stress saw three US regional banks (Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic) fail in quick succession in March 2023, followed by the forced rescue of Credit Suisse by UBS. These events occurred in what was, by historical standards, a relatively stable macroeconomic environment. Vickers cites them as evidence that banking sector vulnerabilities have not been eliminated by post-2008 reforms, and as a caution against complacency about the effectiveness of current safeguards.More VoxTalks EconomicsMaking banking safe Our financial system is supposed to be more resilient than before the global financial crisis, but that didn't save Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank or First Republic. So what went wrong, and can we fix it? Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz suggest how regulators can make banking safer.

Miles and guests unpack how the ONS is collecting the prices from more than a billion supermarket checkout and online sales to measure UK inflation.  Transcript Scanner data podcast transcript Miles:  Hello and welcome to statistically speaking, the official podcast of the UK's Office for National Statistics. I'm Miles Fletcher, and in this episode, we're taking an in depth look at a very big change in how the ONS produces its estimates of inflation, no longer the sole preserve of clipboard wielding prices collectors roaming the supermarket aisles. The digital revolution has now fully arrived. From this month, the UK's inflation indices are now partly based on millions of prices data gathered directly from the tills or scanners, to be precise. How is it all done? What is the role of Taylor Swift in all this? Yes, there is one. And what are the benefits for economists, decision makers and all of us ordinary folk who worry about the cost of living. Here to unpack it all for us is Mike Hardy, who has led the project here at the ONS, and top economist and former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, Jonathan Haskel, professor of economics at Imperial College London. Professor to start with you: to understand what's changed, it'd probably be helpful to remind ourselves how consumer prices inflation has until now been calculated. Essentially, it was the ONS and its agents checking the prices of 1000s of items on a monthly basis to see how they changed.   Jonathan: Yeah, that's right, and the ONS has gone to an enormous amount of effort in order to make that collection representative and make it consistent. But of course, in the modern era of scanner, data, computers, e commerce, things like that, there are other ways of doing it. I guess the important point, which Mike can talk about some more, is that one of the things that we know from statistics is that having a big sample isn't necessarily going to be better if you have a representative sample to start with. So I think one of the interesting points about all of this is whilst the scanner data is collecting many more data points, it's a fascinating check on the representativeness or otherwise of the ONS survey and the procedures thus far as to whether the actual average of all of that will turn out to be very different or similar to what's done before. It's a great advantage to have all of this extra data, but one shouldn't overstate either the advantage or use it as a way of rubbishing what the ONS has been doing in the past.   Miles: So to put it this way, perhaps then, what the ONS has traditionally been doing in collecting prices, is to take this big monthly snapshot of retailing and prices, and what people have been paying for items. What it's got now, what it's moving to in the digital age is moving from a still picture, perhaps to a rolling 4k video, and from that, it can find out exactly what has been missed out of the inflation calculations previously.   Jonathan: Well, I'll just put a little bit of a spin on that. One of the things that the price collectors do, and they're very, very careful to do, is to make sure that that snapshot is consistent across the snapshots, if you sort of see what I mean. So there is a bit of a rolling element to those snapshots already, because, for example, if you're going to collect the price of, let us say, Ladies jeans, which is something that I was doing with the price collector recently, you want to be sure you collect the price for the same good over time. And the point about the price collectors is they're extremely conscientious about making sure that, in the case of ladies jeans, they are coloured blue. They've got either a flared leg or not a flared leg. They've got the same number of pockets, they've got the same amount of stitching, they've got different decorations on them. To make sure that those goods remain the same is actually very important, and that's something actually which the hand collection can do. And as I say, I think that means that the snapshot element is maybe not quite the right metaphor, if I may say, miles. It is the relation. It's a consistent element over time, a consistent snapshot if that's using a metaphor   Miles: That said it's more than just blindly following the same list of products every month. But nonetheless, the traditional way of doing things has had significant. What do you think those are?   Jonathan: I guess the limitations are that when one is collecting a sample, any kind of sample at all, one is always doing one's best to try to hope that that's a representative sample, and having more data then is going to help if it turns out that the sample is unrepresentative. So I think that's one part of it. I think the other part of it is, of course, it's becoming increasingly costly to hand collect these numbers, and you know, like any public agency, one wants to be as careful as one possibly can with taxpayers money. That's the sort of second thing. And the third thing is, especially in the era of the Internet and dynamic pricing and so forth, these prices change, you know, at sort of dizzying rates as firms change their prices throughout the product cycle of the good. And therefore the sort of consistent snapshots may miss some of that variation,   Miles: And all that data, of course, is out there to be learned from, isn't it? Essentially, Mike, is that what the scanner data project has been, it's been all about harvesting that data and using it to produce what's being described as a step change in how inflation is calculated.   Mike: So we've been transforming our consumer price statistics for some time, and we've been acquiring a wide range of data sources with the aim of improving the quality and granularity of our consumer price statistics. So in recent years, we've used administrative data for rail fares and second hand cars, and we will be incorporating grocery scanner data for 50% of the grocery market, where we will be moving from using around 25,000 prices for those retailers to 300 million derived from the sale of over a billion products, so much more granular and rich information on the prices within those retailers. Importantly, as well, we not only have the price of everything within a store, so we move away from the sample that Jonathan described. So taking the price of a small number of products within each store to collecting all of the prices within store, from supermarket checkouts to also getting a better understanding of how much of each product people are purchasing. So that gives us a much clearer picture of inflation by using these large administrative data sets.   Miles: Because the purpose here is to get a sense of how the cost of living is changing for people as well, isn't it? And presumably, if you're just checking the same prices of the same goods month after month, you're not understanding about how price changes are influencing people's purchasing decisions. Does it help with that?   Mike: Yeah, so the scanner data, as I said, gives us a complete kind of picture of all the prices within a store, and it gives us the underlying quantities, so how much of each particular product is being purchased, it also gives us the price at the till, rather than the price on the shelf. So that captures a number of different things that we were unable to capture with the sample data. So the first being if consumers switch from a premium to a value brand, for example, in response to cost of living rising. We pick that up in the scanner data and also discounting, we can better reflect that particularly store cards, because we now understand for a particular product, total spending on that product and the quantity of that product sold, which allows us to get an average price for that product. So we better capture store discount cards, which are available in many of the supermarkets.   Miles: And so by getting a sense of the changing availability of products and what people are actually spending on them, it becomes much more useful then as a cost of living index as well as simply a measure of price change. Yes.   Mike: So the way we currently produce our inflation statistics is that we have a large virtual shopping basket of goods and services. There are 760 items in that basket. We set the weights at the start of the year, and we set the basket, and then we track the prices of those 760 representative items throughout the year. What the scanner data allows us to do at a very detailed level for certain is what we describe as consumption segments. So a consumption segment would be rice for example, is to reflect change in consumer spending patterns within that consumption segment. So for example, if somebody changes the type of rice that they're buying, they decide to buy microwave rice instead of basmati rice, or they decide to switch from a premium rice product to a value rice product, then we'd capture that in the scanner data on a monthly basis, whereas in the previous approach, we'd just monitor the price of a small number of products. So maybe we would monitor the price of microwave rice and basmati rice just over the year. But now with the scanner data, we have the price of all rice sold within a store, and we can reflect people's changing consumer spending patterns when purchasing a particular consumption segment, which I've described here as rice. Miles: And that in turn, I guess, can also influence the way you weight the index as well in future, because that's a fundamental part of calculating inflation that perhaps a lot of people don't fully appreciate. Mike: Yeah, so it'll still be a fixed basket, but the lowest level of aggregation, so that the most detailed data that we have -  that data that's coming in from retailers, where we have the kind of total sales plus the quantity, which allows us to derive a price or a unit cost within that calculation - we would reflect kind of change in weights at that very detailed level. But it will still remain a fixed basket that most of our stakeholders are familiar with, because at a higher level in the aggregation, we constrain the weights at the start of the year. Miles: What was involved in getting these changes so far? It sounds like a huge project, and presumably, first you had to get the retailers on board. Mike: Yes, that in itself was a huge undertaking. We've been engaging with the grocery sector for a number of years. We have the Digital Economy Act in the UK, which is a legal gateway for us to access the data. But instead of using the legislation, we wanted to work collaboratively with the retailers. So we started by engaging with them and requesting the data naturally. They had a range of questions about what we needed the data for, how we were going to publish it, how it was going to be stored. We needed to ensure that we were kind of meeting all of their requirements in terms of them transferring across the data, and they needed to be confident that we are using it for the public good, and there wouldn't be data leaks from their perspective, so that the data are tightly controlled. So that was a process in itself, which took a number of years. Then the existing systems that we have at ONS had to be moved to the cloud because they just simply weren't capable of processing the millions and millions of data points that we have for scanner data. And the scanner data is very different in nature to sample data, so we had to develop a wide range of methods to use the data. So we have two advisory panels. Jonathan's actually Chair of our stakeholder panel, but we also have a technical panel as well. So over the number of years that we've been developing this project, they've been advising us on the methods that we should be using. We've also been engaging with international experts and other national statistics institutes as well. So we had to, you know, gain access to the data. And that's a fairly new area for ONS, commercial kind of data partnerships. You know, we had to move all of the existing IT infrastructure to the cloud, because you need to aggregate the scanner data with the kind of locally collected data, so the data collected in stores. And we also had to develop a wide range of methods as well. The challenge here as well is that our risk appetite is close to zero with consumer price statistics. They are used to inform pensions, benefits, taxes, student loans. So we need to get the numbers right. So our risk appetite has been quite low, and that's quite a difficult tension to manage when you're kind of trailblazing in a number of different areas, whether that's data acquisition systems and methods, but at the same time, you need to ensure that you get the numbers right. So we've ensured that we've taken some time to make sure that, you know, we're comfortable with the methods that are in place and the processes to be able to produce our inflation statistics on a monthly basis.   Miles: And one of the reasons, I guess, it's taken a few years to get all this in train and deliver the results is you had to check whether or not your new estimates of inflation were going to be radically different from the ones that have been published already, because that would itself have had some pretty profound consequences, wouldn't it? How did you provide that assurance? Mike: We make changes to our consumer price statistics every March. That's when the basket is updated. That's when the weights are updated. So going back to the beginning of last year, we felt in a reasonably good position to implement scanner data at that point in time, we were nearly ready, but working with the stakeholder advisory panel and broader group of stakeholders. So over the last year, we've been parallel running the data in the background. So every month, we obviously publish the numbers, and then alongside that in the background, we've been producing prices index and other measures, including grocery scanner data and cross checking it against the published estimates.   Miles: How closely do they align now? Mike: Very well. So the impact at a headline level, for the duration of the impact analysis, which is from 2019, up to pretty much the current period, is kind of negative 0. percentage points for CPI. So that is a small impact at headline. We should note, though, that in 39 of the 66 months, the headline rate would have been different, albeit slightly different, in most of those months. A number of takeaways from this. I think we can have confidence, as Jonathan said, in the kind of sample approach that we currently take at a headline level, you know that's robust. We have a good sample design. What the scanner data allows us to do is get deeper insights into what's driving inflation. So over that period, we tended to find that inflation was slightly higher at the beginning of that period, and then lower from 2022 onwards. And that's why the average over the period is small, because there's an element of off setting. But I'll give you one example of where we've been able to provide deeper insights. So from 2022 onwards, where inflation, utilizing the scanner data was slightly lower, in some of the categories, actually inflation was higher, such as bread and cereals and oils and fats. And that can be attributed within those categories to breakfast cereals and margarine, which are products affected by the Russia, Ukraine war. So we're seeing the impact at a more granular level using the scanner data and being able to better capture changes in price,   Miles Did it have a slightly predictive effect? Then you could spot early examples of inflationary pressures coming through better than has been possible before.   Mike: Well, I wouldn't say early. You know, our role is to produce inflation for periods in the past, forecasting inflation is more of a job for the Bank of England, but at a more detailed level, yes, we could definitely see insights that we were not able to see with the sample data that we were using prior to the implementation of scanner data.   Miles: And Jonathan, from the economist point of view, looking at the new scanner data driven inflation estimates and the path of price changes that that reveals, does it materially change the macroeconomic story?   Jonathan I'm not sure it does actually miles, which may come as a big disappointment to listeners to this podcast who are thinking: well, why has Mike and his team put in all this effort? But in a sense, it's actually a very good result because it goes back to what I was trying to say earlier on, which is it suggests that the sampling frame that the ONS were using to sample a subset of all these prices was actually a pretty well chosen frame. So on the sort of headline kind of effect, it doesn't change things much. Where it does change things is in the detail, as Mike has just been saying, and especially since this is groceries data around food inflation and food prices. And the reason, Miles, I find that important, and I think the community of economists will find that important, is I had the privilege of being on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee up until a year and a half ago, and especially Mike mentioned it during the war in Ukraine, we were very attentive on the committee to changes in food prices, because changes in food prices turn out, the evidence suggests, to be extremely salient to consumers when they're thinking about, you know, how their cost of living is really affected. So since there's going to be much more colour on how it is those food prices have changed, I think that's going to help policy makers, for example, at the Bank of England, get under the hood a little bit of the types of price changes which are very salient to consumers.   Miles So would it be fair to say then, looking back as a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, thinking about potential changes in interest rates, it might not necessarily have led you to make a different decision, but it would have made you better informed or more confident in that decision.   Jonathan I think that's right. I don't think we would have changed our decision. And in any case, one never makes policy decisions in hindsight, you know. What we know now about the covid vaccine, we didn't know then, and so of course, we would have made a different decision, but we didn't know that. Now, I don't think it would have changed the decision, but as I say, I think since especially these food prices are so salient to consumers, it's going to allow the current Committee, which you know, again, to be clear, I'm not on, so this is just me speculating. It's going to allow the current committee to have a much better view as to what these various price changes are and what it is consumers are doing. And that's going to turn out, I think, to be extremely, or potentially extremely important. Because if the current rise in energy prices is maintained for a long time that might well feed through to food prices in various ways, and then we're going to need all the detail that Mike and his team are providing in order to make better policy.   Miles Lots of information about price changes here, but also we're getting an insight into sales volumes as well. Are we not, Mike, even though we're not at this stage actually using these data to compile the retail sales indices?   Mike: So we're not at this stage, the focus is consumer price statistics and using the scanner data for 50% of the market in March. And then there is a plan to expand that market coverage moving forwards and onboarding more retailers. There's potential to use these data sources in other parts of the ONS, you know, for example, in national accounts, for household expenditure and for retail sales. And we'll work collaboratively with the retailers if we want to use their data for other statistics moving forwards. But there are certainly benefits to using these data sources beyond prices   Miles You mentioned earlier work that had to go on with retailers to get them to get their confidence in all of this, and presumably there needs to be a clear message to shoppers, it's not about spying on people's shopping habits?   Mike No, it's a really good point, actually. So we do not have access to what individuals are purchasing. We just get aggregated data. So for a product that's sold within a store, we know the total value of sales, and we know the number of that product that have been sold, we do not know what individuals are purchasing in store, so we don't have access to the loyalty card data which would give us that information.   Miles And that brings us to a very important point that's always worth stating about official statistics. Generally, the ONS will never publish anything that discloses the identity of any individual or indeed any retail outlet, so we can't even say which specific retailers are taking part, although you do have good coverage of the sector,   Mike Yes, so at this stage, we can just say we have coverage of 50% of the market. Co Op are the only retailer that are happy to be named, and we've previously done a press release with them. The other retailers that are included within that 50% have explicitly asked not to be named as a data provider, which we will obviously respect. Miles And as you say, it's all put into a big aggregated pot of data anyway, although it does provide some local and regional insights as well, of course, that perhaps weren't there in such quantity before   Mike It does. So the scanner data that we receive for the retailers that are providing data, we have that broken down by store. So what we do by region is aggregate each of the retailers data together with our local collection data. So I should highlight that that's not disclosive. So it's not possible to identify any retailer within those statistics, but we will be publishing some micro data by region for our stakeholders. I should also note, as well Miles, we've talked a lot about the impact of the headline level being quite small, there are other benefits to this project. So one is that it de risks the ongoing production of consumer price statistics. So some of the systems that we previously had in place had been in place since the 90s and they needed to be moved to a modern alternative so as part of that work we've done that, and also it sets a really good foundation for the future. So now we have the IT infrastructure, the methods in place to be able to use alternative data sources for other parts of the basket. So it gives us a very good foundation to transform our consumer price statistics moving forwards.   Miles Jonathan, coming back to you and the economist's point of view, what is the potential? We talked already, obviously, about the corroborative value of producing inflation statistics with much more certainty than before, but what do you see as the broader economic value and insights that we're getting from this now?   Jonathan I think there are two. One is, as I was mentioning before, a more sort of forensic vision about what it is that consumers are doing. The second, though, is a little bit more indirect, but let me put it on the table anyway. Miles, which is, as Mike has been saying, in order to implement this, the statistics agency ONS, or whoever, whichever statistics agency in the world is going to do this is going to need to invest in it and new processes and new equipment and so forth. And that, of course, spreading that good practice over all areas of this, and I'm not just talking about the ONS, I'm talking about any statistics agency anywhere in the world, will be very, very helpful, because, of course, that would improve all of the data collection processes in the statistics agency, and for economists, that would be an enormous boon.   Miles Mike, can we turn to some of the other benefits and some of the other aspects of the general improvement of inflation statistics that coincide with the introduction of scanner data this month. Intrigued to hear about something called the Taylor Swift effect. Can you unpack what that is and why it's relevant to all this?   Mike So the famous Taylor Swift effect. This is in relation to hotel prices. So we currently collect previously collected hotel prices on a particular date in the month, and when there was a Taylor Swift concert close to one of the cities that we were collecting hotel prices in, that had an impact on hotel prices on that particular day, so that then, in turn, had an impact on the hotels index, which then kind of fed into the headline measure. So what we've done in response to that is to collect prices on two days during the month, so that those kind of one off events such as a Taylor Swift concert or, you know, a sporting event, do not have such a disproportionate impact on our headline measures of inflation. We still want to capture that price increase, but by collecting on two dates over the month rather than one, we're softening its impact. And I think that's only right because it's not necessarily representative of hotel prices across the UK.   Miles So you can't blame Taylor Swift for higher inflation. Is the message as it was simply a quirk of how prices were collected by taking those single points, which sometimes happened to fall on days when there were big events going,   Mike Yes, that's because we were collecting the hotel price on, you know, one particular day during the month. We've already announced that we'll be changing that for the forthcoming year to two dates during the month. But you know, something we may consider over the medium to longer term is whether we use administrative data for hotels, and that would certainly soften the impact of one off events in a particular city, because you'd be collecting data over the entire month. We already collect data across a wide range of locations, but having many more data points would soften the impact of those kind of one off events.   Jonathan You're right to ask Miles about the Taylor Swift effect on inflation. And I had the privilege of being on the Monetary Policy Committee at the time, and I remember we discussed this. There's bad news and good news so that the bad news is that I was only vaguely aware of Taylor Swift's music. Thanks to my children, I know something about it, but I was no great expert. The good news was that, because the ONS were very open about the collection protocols, which Mike has just talked about, we were actually able, as a committee, to sort of reverse engineer what inflation would have been had Taylor Swift not been there. And that enabled us to essentially look through what was just a volatile bit of the index. So I'm pleased to say that this was an example where, you know, communication between bureaucratic agencies, which can maybe be improved, and often it's maybe not as good as it might be, was a case where, actually, it worked quite well. And I think it's for others to judge, but I think the bank did not make a bad policy mistake.   Miles Yeah, I guess it's a limitation, isn't it? Of calculating inflation, you've got to pick a day on which to take the sample prices. If you happen to pick the day when Taylor's in town, it's going to have a distorting effect.   Jonathan Oh, and sporting, as Mike was saying, sporting effects, the World Cup and all that kind of thing. But as I say, I think this is just an example of where, in fact, the lines of communication between the bank and the ONS actually work very well. And as I say, we were very aware on the committee I was on at the time. We're very aware of what the biases were, and I think that's sort of quite a nice, sort of mini lesson for how the bureaucracy worked. Even if our musical taste didn't work quite so well, at least the bureaucracy did function on this occasion.   Miles It wasn't you there pushing up the hotel prices in Cardiff then! I think we can be fairly, fairly confident of that. But we have another example, though, don't we? A more regular example recently, and that's the collection of airfares. It's similar thing, isn't it, over holiday periods gone?   Jonathan Well, again, that's exactly right, but again, I sort of hate to be, you know, boring the listeners with a tale of bureaucratic interrelations. But as I say, I think this is an example where the communication between the policy making authorities and the stats agency worked well on this occasion. We're aware of the ONS protocols. They were open with us, but you know that was not to be then pushed on further about how these things are collected. And if you're aware of that, you can then go to the Monetary Policy Committee, or whatever it might be, and make them aware about what all these biases might be. And so what I think is an important effect in the headline, has less of an effect on the chances, as I say, in this in this case of the bank, of making a policy mistake,   Miles You can make sure these things are priced in as they say but there's a point about public confidence as well, though, isn't there? People are rightfully sceptical, and a lot of people claim there's nothing as misleading as an average particularly when it comes to the collection of prices.   Jonathan Well, it's both the average and the volatility, which I think is difficult. And so when ONS staff are on the radio explaining what the inflation numbers are, they often get rather held up in some ways of explaining particularly volatile components, such as hotels and such as airfares, and I don't know what that does for the confidence of people in the overall index. I mean, in some sense, that means that the ONS are doing their job about collecting what the index is and sticking to international protocol on all of this, which in some sense is a confidence booster. But I can quite understand that people listening to a description about how volatile these things are, they might just say, Well, you know, I'm really not sure about what this index is telling me. So I think it's a communications problem ultimately as well.   Miles Well, certainly. Well, we work hard at the ONS to mitigate, as you say, but I guess the fundamental point for people to understand is that the more data that's going in, the more reliable your estimates, at least more comprehensive your estimates are going to be coming out,   Jonathan But also the protocols that Mike's been talking about, if I may say, about not concentrating data collection on a particular day which might coincide with a Taylor Swift concert. Or in the case of airfares, it might be half term on that particular day, and the airfares are particularly high and so forth. So flexing those methodological issues, I think, is going to help smooth out some of this volatility.   Miles Okay, in terms of the International picture, how advanced would you say the UK is now compared to other, you know, similar economies and the way it calculates inflation?   Mike So there are some countries that adopted scanner data, you know, a number of years ago, such as the Netherlands: early adopters. I think they've had scanner data in their consumer price statistics for at least 10 years, perhaps more. Then there are a range of other countries that are in a similar position to us who have recently stood up projects to utilize scanner data. So, you know, during our journey, we've relied heavily on international best practice and working with other NSIs to learn from them and their experiences of utilizing scanner data. And now we're in a position where we're about to implement grocery scanner data. You know, we've ensured that we are also sharing best practice with other NSIs as well, as they start to embark on this journey.   Miles So not quite the first but among the sort of first wave, then?   Mike Among the chasing pack, I'd say Yes,   Miles Jonathan, could I finish off with you then with a question all about the bigger distant future. When you take a big step forward like this and introduce a huge increase in the amount of data, it presents a sort of tantalizing vision of the future, Jonathan, does it not? Where we're able to measure the economy almost in in real time, and the insights that that might be able to produce is that pie in the sky, or do you think we will get there eventually, that you could almost have a daily estimate of GDP, if that was worthwhile, or, perhaps more usefully, real time estimates of household incomes, for example, see how people are getting on?   Jonathan I think Miles, it's a fascinating conjecture, and my immediate reaction is, we don't want to overstate this again, for the reason I've been saying it's not necessarily the case that more data is better. We want to be sampling representatively which the ONS seems to have been doing, even though it's only collecting 25,000 prices a month. Those 25,000 appear to be fairly representative. On the other hand, if there's a lot of dynamics to those prices, you know, discounts, changes in quality, you know, sort of digital changes to all these various prices. We want us as a statistics agency and as a measurement community, to be picking all that stuff up as well. So that seems to me to be the vision about going on the digital side and collecting all of this: that we can get much finer grain information about these prices. But as I say, I don't want to overstate it. Mike won't take any of the credit, but I'm going to give him some credit. It is down to Mike and his team. As I say, that 25,000 prices turns out to be an amazingly representative sample of the approximately now 300 million prices which are being collected instead.   Miles Well, it's a lovely fitting note on which to wrap it up, and that is a fitting moment to leave this topic. Our sincere thanks to guests Mike Hardy and Professor Jonathan Haskell. Also to our producer Julia short. It's time for me to say goodbye as well as this is my last podcast before I stand down as head of media for the ONS after 13 fascinating years. But you can expect these podcasts to continue as of course, will the ONS itself. So don't forget to like and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Goodbye.  

#276This is the first of our monthly update on all things lending and finance.This episode discusses:Bank of England Base Rate and Mortgage Rates:The Return of 90% Mortgages:Cut in Specialist Bridging Loan Rates:Our WhatsApp  groupProperty Engine discounts (Code: EXPAT)Starter: 30 day trialPro: 30 day trial/3 mths 1/2 price, Ultimate: 1/2 price 3 monthsGoalsettingLeave a review37 Question Due Diligence Checklist / Auction GuideOur Sponsors: Finnigan McNeill Property GroupThis Month's Lending Headlines:Bank of England Holds at 3.75%The base rate is unchanged, but that doesn't mean we're in the clear. The Monetary Policy Committee is “watching and waiting”—with inflation and global events keeping everyone on their toes.Looking Back: How Did We Get Here?We dive into why rates plummeted during the COVID lockdowns, how they climbed back up in response to inflation (thanks in part to the energy crunch and events like Russia's invasion of Ukraine), and why today's global tensions are still influencing what you pay on your mortgage.Fixed-Rate Mortgages: Up, Up, and AwayIf you're on a fixed deal, you probably appreciate the security more than ever, as typical 5-year fixed rates have jumped from 4.95% to 5.32% in just three weeks. That's an extra £651 per year on a £250,000 loan—ouch!90% Mortgages Make a ComebackIf you have a smaller deposit, there's good news: 90% mortgages are back, at levels not seen since 2008. But be careful—higher loan-to-value mortgages often mean higher rates, stricter checks, and the risk of negative equity if prices fall.Specialist Finance: Bridging Loans in the SpotlightBridge finance lender SDK has cut its Bridge 75 product to 0.95% for loans over £250k, catering to investors after mixed-use and semi-commercial opportunities. If “shop with flats above” is on your wishlist, now might be the time.KeywordsUK property podcast, Expat property podcast, UK mortgage update podcast, UK property finance podcast, Mortgage Monday podcast, UK base rate 2025 update, Bank of England interest rates, UK mortgage rates 2025, First-time buyer mortgages UK, High loan-to-value mortgages UK, UK property market news podcast, UK bridging loans explained, Semi-commercial bridging loans UK, UK buy-to-let updates, Monthly UK property market update, Expat property investing UK, Homebuyer tips UK podcast, UK inflation and property market, UK property auction insights, Refurbishment finance UK, Bank of England base rate changes, Five-year fixed rate mortgages UK, 90% mortgage deals UK, Negative equity risks UK, Specialist bridge finance UK, Property Reporter news, Lender rate changes UK, Mixed-use property investment UK

On Episode 817 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Sourav Mitra, Partner – Oil & Gas at Grant Thornton Bharat as well as Saugata Bhattacharya, Member of the Monetary Policy Committee at Reserve Bank of India.SHOW NOTES(00:00) The Take(04:41) Why oil prices are the most critical indicator to watch this week.(07:58) Between oil and gas, how will India cope in the coming weeks?(15:46) A global shortage of capital will affect economies like India. What could come next? Register for India Finance and Innovation Forum 2026https://tinyurl.com/IFIFCOREFor more of our coverage check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠thecore.in⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to our Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow us on:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ |⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ |⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ |⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Linkedin⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ |⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Youtube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Last week, Bank of England (“BoE”) Monetary Policy Committee (“MPC”) member Catherine Mann signalled she is edging closer to backing an interest rate cut, with markets now fully pricing in two reductions by year-end as inflation eases to 3%. The UK labour market is cooling, with unemployment at a cycle high of 5.2%. Small businesses anticipate job cuts due to April's increases in minimum wage and National Insurance. Political uncertainty persists amidst speculation that Manchester mayor Andy Burnham may challenge Prime Minister (“PM”) Keir Starmer. Despite this, institutional investors such as Schroders are increasing UK debt exposure, buying longer-dated gilts, believing monetary policy will outweigh near-term political risks...Stocks featured:Compass Group, St. James's Place and 3i GroupTo find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management's own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Our new Reserve Bank Governor says she has full confidence in the people making OCR decisions. The Monetary Policy Committee, chaired by Anna Breman, has decided to keep the OCR unchanged at 2.25% for now. It says while inflation is above the target band, the economy still needs some time to recover. Breman told Mike Hosking the committee will make the best decisions it can, based on the data and forecasts it has access to at the time. She says something might look obvious in retrospect, but they're dealing with lots of global shocks constantly hitting the New Zealand economy. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An economist is pointing out a potential problem with the Reserve Bank's economic forecast. The Monetary Policy Committee, chaired by Anna Breman, has decided to keep the OCR unchanged at 2.25% for now. It says while inflation is above the target band, the economy still needs some time to recover. Cameron Bagrie told Ryan Bridge that the problem with the Reserve Bank's forecast is the assumed uptick in productivity growth. He says they're assuming the supply side capacity, via productivity growth, will improve, which will keep inflation lower, but if we can't get supply side capacity up, inflation will prove to be a lot stickier. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Government's announced an independent review of the fiscal response to the Covid pandemic. Finance Minister Nicola Willis says it will look at any lessons the country could learn to improve its monetary policy response to future events. It will probe decisions by the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee and advice it received – including the decision to print $55 billion in digital money during the pandemic. Graeme, a caller on Kerre Woodham Mornings, decided to break down exactly how the concept of “printing money” works, what impact it has on the market, and the impact it had during Covid. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Monetary Policy Committee: Taux directeur inchangé à 4,5 % by TOPFM MAURITIUS

Inflation has fallen a long way from its peak - but many people still feel worse off, and price rises have remained stubbornly above the Bank of England's 2% target. So what actually caused the big inflation spike, how close are we to “normal”, and what does that mean for households? Helen is joined by David Miles (OBR and former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee) and Peter Levell (IFS) to break down the basics: what inflation is, why central banks target 2% rather than 0%, and what drove prices up so sharply in recent years. We also dig into who inflation hits hardest, how much of the cost-of-living crisis is really about inflation, and why the Bank raises interest rates even though it can make life feel tougher in the short run. Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

​By Gareth VaughanGovernor Anna Breman has implied the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee will increase the Official Cash Rate (OCR) in the run-up to November's election if members believe this is what is required."We are statutory independent. We are an independent central bank, like you point out, and we will do what is best for the New Zealand economy and to reach our inflation target," Breman told interest.co.nz in a new episode of the Of Interest podcast.She was asked if the Reserve Bank believes increasing the OCR is necessary, she would be comfortable doing so in the run up to November's election.Breman was speaking on Friday, after the release of Statistics NZ's December quarter Consumers Price Index (CPI) showed annual inflation at 3.1%, above the Reserve Bank's 1% to 3% target range."We are carefully looking through all the data. It's clear that there are some items in there that typically are very volatile. They can change a lot between different quarters. But of course 3.1% is high and it means that inflation that's been hurting households for many years is still above where we want it to be, but the outlook is still favorable in terms of inflation going forward. So it's also important to stress that we will focus on getting inflation back in the target band and towards the midpoint of the target band," Breman said.The Reserve Bank reviews the OCR for the first time this year on February 18.In a note following the CPI release BNZ Head of Research Stephen Toplis said financial markets had almost fully priced in a first OCR increase for the Reserve Bank's September 2 Monetary Policy Statement. And BNZ's economists have brought forward their expectations for a first OCR hike to September 2 from February 2027."One thing that needs to be taken into consideration is the General Election on November 7. The Reserve Bank is operationally independent so it can broadly do what it wants when it wants, but central banks are not keen to become embroiled in election campaigns if it can be avoided," said Toplis."In our opinion, this means the 28 October Monetary Policy Review would be far from optimal for a first rate hike. Moreover, it's always easier to tell the full story with a complete Monetary Policy Statement when a hiking cycle, or cutting, begins."Breman said she doesn't comment directly on market pricing. The OCR is currently at 2.25%, having been reduced from 5.50% since July 2024.In the podcast audioBreman speaks further about inflation including the challenges facing households, whether she expects help from government with the inflation fight, limits to Reserve Bank monetary policy, her recent support of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the response from Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Finance Minister Nicola Willis, risks around the Fed becoming less independent when President Donald Trump appoints a new Chairman, what climate change means for the Reserve Bank, her thoughts on a potential central bank digital currency, and more.*You can find all episodes of the Of Interest podcast here.​

Catch Up on the latest leading news stories around the country with Mandy Wiener on Midday Report every weekday from 12h00 - 13h00 The Midday Report with Mandy Wiener is 702 and CapeTalk’s flagship news show, your hour of essential news radio. The show is podcasted every weekday, allowing you to catch up with a 60-minute weekday wrap of the day's main news. It's packed with fast-paced interviews with the day’s newsmakers, as well as those who can make sense of the news and explain what's happening in your world. All the interviews are podcasted for you to catch up and listen to. Thank you for listening to this podcast of The Midday Report Listen live on weekdays between 12:00 and 13:00 (SA Time) to The Midday Report broadcast on 702 https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj and on CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from The Midday Report go to https://buff.ly/BTGmL9H and find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/LcbDdFI Subscribe to the 702 and CapeTalk daily and weekly newsletters https://buff.ly/v5mfetc Follow us on social media: 702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/Radio702 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio702 CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapeTalk567 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I would have thought the NZIER numbers yesterday sealed the deal for the Monetary Policy Committee and today's call. The NZIER was the last substantive look at the economy, and what it shows is we have real trouble. Quite possibly recessionary trouble. They think Q3 was certainly flat, if not in contraction. If it is contraction, you can add that to the Q2 contraction and that, once again, is a recession. How many of these do we want? In the Reserve Bank's case how many do they want, given they can actually do something about it? They are two particularly poor, if not concerning, parts of the data. 1) More jobs are being cut. So that's your unemployment rate heading higher still, shattering the idea that we may have reached peak. 2) Inflation expectations are heading north of 3% – remember the band is 1-3%. The trouble with that is the 3% isn't coming from growth, which is traditionally what you want. The term for no growth but increasing inflation is stagflation. We could re-litigate, again, how badly the bank have handled this, how they missed Q2 despite that being their job, how they kept telling us the stimulatory effects of lower interest rates were here, or just about here, or here any day now, and if in fact they were ever here they got swallowed by the councils, power companies and insurances giants. Anyway, surely 50 basis points is a given. It isn't of course. There remain those who argue 25 points should do it today and another 25 next month and we can all head off to Christmas, fingers crossed. My argument today is about more than stats and numbers, it's about the psychology of an economy and a country. The Government have tried, but largely failed, to jolly us along and to sell us the story of recovery. The Reserve Bank have spectacularly failed. But they can help today with 50 basis because it says we got it wrong, we missed it, we need to fire this joint up and here is our shot. And it's a big one. Go on Christian – be bold. It's your second last time. Don't die wondering.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A long-standing friend of The Country has been appointed to the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee. With a background in banking and agri-business we look at her progression through Rabobank and Skellerup to deciding the OCR on October 8.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Was this the final nail in the Adrian Orr coffin? Can we add Christian Hawkesby and the entire monetary policy committee? After all, it's easy to blame a governor, but it's a committee that votes on what to do with the cash rate. After the famed Q2 finished (remember April, May and June), we come to the next committee decision in July. Orr is gone, Hawkesby is up, and they have just witnessed the previous three months. And what do they do? Nothing. No change. They held. Why? Because they felt things were in hand. They also said the economy would contract 0.3%. Yesterday came the proof that it's hard, when you are actually paid as a so-called expert, to get it more wrong than they did. We all felt it and knew it. Most of us wouldn't have been able to put a number round it like the banks have to, but most of us don't have the data they have access to. But what we all knew was it was bad, it was tight, it was ugly, and it wasn't going in the right direction. But the gap between -0.3% and -0.9% is inexcusable. The same way it is inexcusable to stand there in July and tell us more stimulus wasn't needed. At some point someone has to be held to account. Yes, Orr is gone, but only because he packed a sad. Yes, Quigley is gone, but only because he got found out. No one has actually been held to account for a spectacular failure to do the job. Why are the Monetary Policy Committee members still in work? How many of them are there because of their so-called "expertise" versus being appointed for the so-called “right” reasons? Results count. Facts matter. And here is the issue for the Government: as the poll showed us this week, a lot of New Zealanders blame the Government for the economy. They have been let down in no small part by the Reserve Bank and when the Prime Minister the other week on this show fired off a bit of advice, all the pointy heads wrote op-eds whining about independence. Independence is fine. But not if you're useless. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Whether it's the government, international organisations, higher education, or the media, one of the defining dynamics of the social media age is the deteriorating trust in public institutions. It's extraordinary, really. At a time when humans are on the whole wealthier, healthier, and more dominant than at any other time in our species' history, we're more distrustful of the institutions that are supposed to serve us. Saturday Mornings is usually a monetary policy-free zone, and I promise to mostly keep it that way for now. But it was pretty remarkable at the close of play last night to see an announcement from the Finance Minister about the Chair of the Reserve Bank. Neil Quigley had resigned, effective immediately, following further revelations about his handling of former Governor Adrian Orr's departure. Nicola Willis confirmed to Newstalk ZB that if Quigley hadn't offered his resignation, she'd have asked for it. I don't expect everyone to follow all of the Reserve Bank dramas. But the long and short of it is that former Governor Adrian Orr got in a dispute with the government over the bank's funding. It turned into a showdown of sorts, the Reserve Bank Board raised concerns with him about his conduct (some of which he disputed), and after taking leave for a few days he ultimately resigned. But instead of being absolutely transparent about the dispute and what had actually happened, the RBNZ Chair Neil Quigley told media that Orr had resigned for “personal reasons”. If this was just some rando then no harm no foul. But Adrian Orr was the Governor of the Reserve Bank, one of the most powerful public servants in the country. His pen stroke and the decisions of his Monetary Policy Committee could be the difference between thousands or hundreds of thousands of people losing their jobs or homes. Like many journalists, I didn't buy the “personal reasons” explanation and felt we all deserved to know more detail about what had actually happened. Ater all, this wasn't a private company. The Reserve Bank serves us. After Neil Quigley's explanation, and after the Reserve Bank declined for Adrian Orr to be interviewed, I even went to the extreme length of sending him a letter at his home asking him to front. It's something I'd almost never do, but the public deserved an explanation. And it's taken until now and a ruling from the ombudsman for us to get the full story. I think there are lessons in this for all of us who work in jobs that purport to serve the public. In my role, I think about trust a lot. And look, I know this is very different to the Reserve Bank, much lower stakes, but I had the chance to reflect on my own work this week, and tried to lean into the spirit of introspection and openness. I was on a podcast, re_covering, in which Newstalk ZB's Frank Ritchie asks journalists to reflect on a story they covered. I didn't choose one which I'd absolutely nailed. Instead, I reflected on my five years as TVNZ's US Correspondent, and on my surprise at the first election of Donald Trump. As I said on re_covering, the fact so many of us were so shocked by the result (including Trump!) shows I and the rest of the news media covering that election had done a massively insufficient job of reflecting the scale of the anger and dissatisfaction with the status quo in the US. That election changed the world. Ultimately, I hope reflecting on my surprise will make me more sceptical of conventional wisdom, and better at my job today. Humans are fallible. We all make mistakes. But the Reserve Bank episode demonstrates the best thing a public institution can do to protect its reputation is not try and protect its reputation. Just admit when you got things wrong. Admit things that make you look bad. Learn lessons the hard way. Convince the public you have nothing to hide by showing us you have nothing to hide. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank Governor is defending not going harder with cuts to the Official Cash Rate. The cash rate has been cut 25 basis points to 3%. But it's signalling more cuts than it was before, and has revealed two of the six Monetary Policy Committee members actually wanted a bigger cut. Christian Hawkesby told Mike Hosking he stands by the central bank's decisions. He says they're focused on their mandate of controlling inflation over the medium term, but the recent slowdown has changed their outlook. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On this week's podcast Damien explains the latest development in the car finance mis-selling scandal and what action you need to take. He also discusses the latest Bank of England base rate cut. While it was widely anticipated, he explains why the market was caught off guard by what was contained in the accompanying meeting minutes.Check out this week's ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠podcast article⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ on the Money to the Masses website to see the full list of resources from this week's show(00:00) - MTTM Episode 515(04:07) - Car Finance Mis-selling Scandal Overview(07:06) - Supreme Court Ruling and Its Implications(09:31) - Action you can take to check if you had a DCA(12:30) - Bank of England Rate Decision and Market Reactions(15:18) - Impact of Base Rate Cuts on Mortgages(17:19) - Market Predictions for Base Rate Changes(19:03) - Understanding the Monetary Policy Committee's Decisions(22:06) - Inflation Trends and Their Effects on Interest Rates(24:37) - Personal Mortgage Decisions and Market ReactionsFollow Money to the Masses on social media:YouTube - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Tik Tok - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@moneytothemasses⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠You may already compare products and services online and make purchases but by doing so via our dedicated page you might not only save money but could also earn cashback or take advantage of exclusive offers for MTTM listeners.Every time you use a link on the page we may earn a small amount of money for our podcast. We only use affiliate links that give you an identical (or better) deal than going direct. Thank you for being an incredible part of our community. Your support means the world to us.Support the show by visiting and bookmarking our dedicated podcast page:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Money to the Masses Dedicated Podcast Page⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - Click to support the showLinks referred to in the podcast:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Try our AI guidance tool 'DaMoney' - Ask it any money questionCar Finance Mis-Selling ReviewFCA to Consult On Car Finance CompensationMSE Car Finance Complaint Logging ToolBest Mortgage Rates in the UKSign Up To The MTTM Weekly NewsletterIf a link has an * beside it this means that it is an affiliated link. If you go via the link, Money to the Masses may receive a small fee which helps keep Money to the Masses free to use.

I'm excited to share something I've negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER' or filling out the form on the page I've linked below.All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Don't miss out!This had never happened before, an unprecedented vote for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. Despite it, the Pringles can remains undeterred since this is what rate cutting cycles are. The destination remains the same and another drop in employment in the UK as well as France further proves it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUThis video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank. Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:-Not insured by the FDIC.-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal.  Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.

The Bank of England has cut interest rates again, but this time, the decision wasn't straightforward.  Georgie Frost, Lee Boyce and Helen Crane ask what the division in the Monetary Policy Committee tells us about the state of the economy right now, and what the cut means for our money.  We also talk about plans to hit those in wealthier areas with bigger council tax bills. Why is the current system so unequal, and how could your area be affected? Helen discusses a water company who told an elderly couple they needed their pipework replacing at a cost of thousands - when in reality, all they needed was a new water meter (which is given away for free).  Finally, Lee explains who can claim from the car finance scandal - and what to do if you can't find the paperwork.

The Reserve Bank is expected to take a breather when it reviews the Official Cash Rate on Wednesday, before pushing on with cuts later in the year. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee is widely expected to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 3.25 percent. Westpac Chief Economist Kelly Eckhold says the central bank runs some risks if they cut at this point. "What they risk is that the CPI, which is due later on this month, comes in uncomfortably high - and some of the data we've seen since May suggests that it is actually going to be a bit stronger than what they forecasted." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For today's episode, host Josh Sidman sat down with Willem Buiter to discuss the dynamics of monetary systems. Our conversation was held and recorded in June of 2025.Dr. Buiter is an economist, commentator, author, and consultant. Formerly, he was Chief Economist and Special Counsel to the President of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, a European multilateral development institution similar to the World Bank. Dr. Buiter also served as an External Member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. From 2010 to 2018, he was the Chief Global Economist at Citigroup, and remained an economic advisor until 2019. Being an expert in Economics, he has held numerous teaching positions at esteemed universities, such as Yale and the London School of Economics. He briefly served as a consultant for the IMF's Research Department in the 70s, and has written extensively on economic issues for publications such as the Center for Economic Policy Research, Project Syndicate, Jackson Hole Economics, as well as his books and blogs. I'd love to cover more of his impressive positions, but there are too many for this introduction alone. Dr. Buiter earned his bachelor's from the University of Cambridge, and his master's and Ph.D. from Yale, all in economics. Together, we discussed Dr. Buiter's critique of fiat currencies, his thoughts on Central Bank Digital Currencies, and why monetary policy is so important to maintaining economic stability.To check out more of our content, including our research and policy tools, visit our website: https://www.hgsss.org/

This is the Catchup on 3 Things by The Indian Express and I'm Niharika Nanda.Today is the 6th of June and here are the headlines.PM Modi Flags Off Vande Bharat Trains, Inaugurates Chenab BridgePrime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday flagged off two Vande Bharat trains between Katra and Srinagar and inaugurated two key rail bridges—India's first cable-stayed bridge over Anji Khad and the world's highest rail bridge over the Chenab River. At a rally in Katra, he asserted that any obstruction to Jammu and Kashmir's development would face him first. Modi launched several infrastructure projects worth over ₹46,000 crore in the Union Territory, reaffirming his government's commitment to accelerating growth and connectivity in the region.Karnataka CM's Aide Removed After Stadium Stampede Kills 11Following the tragic stampede near Bengaluru's Chinnaswamy Stadium that killed 11 and injured 56, MLC K Govindaraj, political secretary to Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, has been removed. Police Commissioner B Dayananda and four other top officers were suspended for crowd control lapses. The state government has ordered a judicial inquiry and announced that RCB officials involved will be arrested. The incident, linked to mismanagement during a free ticket distribution event, has sparked outrage and demands for accountability at the highest levels of administration.Starlink Gets Key Licence to Launch Services in IndiaElon Musk's satellite internet company Starlink has cleared a crucial regulatory hurdle after receiving a licence from India's telecom ministry, sources told Reuters. The move brings Starlink a step closer to rolling out commercial operations across India. It becomes the third satellite broadband provider to get approval from the Department of Telecommunications, after OneWeb and Reliance Jio. The licence marks a significant development in India's push to expand rural and remote connectivity through space-based internet services, especially in underserved regions.RBI Slashes Repo Rate by 50 Basis Points to Boost GrowthThe Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee cut the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.50%, surprising markets and marking the third rate cut in 2025. The move is aimed at reviving economic growth as inflation remains below the 4% target. Borrowers, especially homeowners, will benefit from lower EMIs, but depositors may see reduced returns. Additionally, the RBI lowered the cash reserve ratio by 100 basis points to 3%, injecting ₹2.5 lakh crore of lendable funds into the banking system to spur credit flow.Trump-Musk Twitter Feud Goes Viral Over Policy ClashA fiery online clash erupted late Thursday between US President Donald Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk over a proposed domestic policy dubbed the “Big, Beautiful Bill.” What started as a disagreement quickly spiraled into a digital spectacle, with both leaders exchanging jabs in real-time. The feud dominated social media, inspiring memes, satirical headlines, and viral quotes. Musk had openly criticized the bill, prompting Trump's sharp response. The spat highlights ongoing tensions between tech moguls and political leaders in a highly polarized digital age.That's all for today. This was the Catchup on 3 Things by The Indian Express.

Christopher Luxon remains hopeful the latest cut in the OCR isn't the last. The Reserve Bank's dropped the Official Cash Rate 25 basis points to 3.25%, and is now forecasting it will reach a low of 2.9 percent in December. But the Monetary Policy Committee wasn't able to reach a unanimous decision to cut the cash rate. The Prime Minister told Mike Hosking Acting Governor Christian Hawkesby is dealing with a period of global uncertainty. He says there's a huge amount of volatility that Hawkesby is navigating, but the economy is turning a corner. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee revealed it failed to reach a consensus today - before they voted to cut the OCR 25 basis points to 3.25 percent. But Westpac Chief Economist Kelly Eckhold says that's surprising. He explained that the fact someone is prepared to put their hand up and say they wouldn't support the move shows it was more a line-ball call than they were expecting. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive Full Show Podcast for Wednesday, 28 May 2025, the Reserve Bank has cut interest rates but things are much more uncertain for the future. Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold told Heather it's significant that the Monetary Policy Committee didn't come to a unanimous decision. Hairdresser Hailey Ashton with her verdict on the new rules for hairdressers and barbers - and why she still won't let people bring their dogs to the salon. 86% of new homeowners have to call a tradie back in to fix something shortly after they move in. Master Plumber boss Greg Wallace tries to defend the tradies. Warehouse chair Dame Joan Withers on the Warehouse's new boss - and how she thinks the economy is going right now. Plus, the Huddle debates why we're not going to the movies anymore and whether we should top up our MPs Kiwisavers. Get the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive Full Show Podcast every weekday evening on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Funny how Bond markets seem to look past most of what RBA Governor Michelle Bullock said in her post Monetary Policy Committee meeting yesterday, but remember they are gamblers. As was expected, the RBA cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85 per cent in its second reduction this year, but revelations during … Continue reading "Expect The Unexpected As Uncertainty Spirals…"

This is the Catchup on 3 Things by The Indian Express and I'm Ichha Sharma.Today is the 11th of April and here are this week's headlines.The US officially enforced a sweeping 104% tariff on all Chinese imports starting Wednesday, escalating its trade confrontation with Beijing. This move follows President Trump's ultimatum to China to withdraw its retaliatory 34% tariffs. China hit back sharply at Washington's escalating trade war rhetoric, saying it does not seek conflict but won't tolerate bullying either. US further escalated the situation with its decision to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 125% while pausing tariffs for other nations. Responding to this, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said at a press briefing, “This cause will not win popular support and will end in failure.” Lin emphasized that Beijing will defend its people's rights, signaling that retaliatory action may still be on the table. Meanwhile, Asian markets surged on news of the 90-day tariff pause for other countries, with Japan's Nikkei 225 soaring 8%, South Korea's Kospi rising over 5%, and Australia's ASX 200 up 5% in early trading.In a landmark ruling, the Supreme Court declared Tamil Nadu Governor R N Ravi's decision to reserve 10 re-passed Bills for Presidential consideration as illegal. The court held that the Governor showed scant respect for judicial precedent and unduly delayed action. Using Article 142, the bench declared that the 10 Bills are deemed to have received assent, overriding the governor's withholding. This rare step sends a strong message about constitutional propriety and reinforces legislative autonomy amid growing tensions between elected governments and appointed constitutional heads.The Reserve Bank of India has slashed the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6% in its latest monetary policy review. This signals lower interest rates on home, personal, and auto loans soon. The Monetary Policy Committee also shifted its stance from "neutral" to "accommodative," hinting at more rate cuts ahead. GDP growth for 2025–26 has been revised down to 6.5% from 6.7%, while retail inflation is projected at 4%. Lower rates aim to boost borrowing and spending amid slowing economic momentum.Russia has formally invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend its Victory Day Parade on May 9, commemorating 80 years since the end of World War II. Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko confirmed that the invitation has been sent, and the visit is under discussion. The gesture comes after Moscow confirmed President Putin's scheduled visit to India later this year. Russia has extended invitations to several “friendly nations,” reinforcing diplomatic ties amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Modi's participation would signify India's balancing act in global power dynamics.A deadly Israeli airstrike hit a residential building in northern Gaza's Shijaiyah neighborhood on Wednesday, killing at least 23 people, including eight women and eight children, according to officials at Al-Ahly Hospital. The Gaza Health Ministry confirmed the toll and said rescue teams were still searching through rubble for survivors. Nearby buildings were also damaged, according to Gaza's civil defense, which operates under the Hamas-run government. The strike is the latest in a wave of intensifying attacks, as the humanitarian crisis worsens in the besieged Palestinian enclave with no signs of a ceasefire in sight.This was the CatchUp on 3 Things by The Indian Express.

This is the Catchup on 3 Things by The Indian Express and I'm Flora Swain.Today is the 9th of April and here are today's headlines.The Reserve Bank of India has slashed the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6% in its latest monetary policy review. This signals lower interest rates on home, personal, and auto loans soon. The Monetary Policy Committee also shifted its stance from "neutral" to "accommodative," hinting at more rate cuts ahead. GDP growth for 2025–26 has been revised down to 6.5% from 6.7%, while retail inflation is projected at 4%. Lower rates aim to boost borrowing and spending amid slowing economic momentum.India has revoked a key transshipment facility that allowed Bangladesh to move export cargo through Indian territory to Bhutan, Nepal, and Myanmar. The decision, announced by the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs, follows Bangladesh's growing economic ties with China in Northeast India. A June 2020 order enabling transshipment via Indian ports and land customs stations has been officially rescinded. The move is expected to strain Dhaka's regional trade logistics and could reflect India's strategic pushback against China's expanding influence in South Asia.India has cleared a high-value defense deal with France to purchase 26 Rafale Marine fighter jets for the Indian Navy. Estimated at over ₹63,000 crore, the deal includes 22 single-seat and 4 twin-seat variants, along with maintenance support, logistics, and training packages. This agreement strengthens naval aviation capabilities aboard aircraft carriers INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya. It also supports Make in India goals with offset obligations requiring domestic manufacturing components. The deal is expected to be formalized shortly, marking a major milestone in Indo-French strategic cooperation.Russia has formally invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend its Victory Day Parade on May 9, commemorating 80 years since the end of World War II. Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko confirmed that the invitation has been sent, and the visit is under discussion. The gesture comes after Moscow confirmed President Putin's scheduled visit to India later this year. Russia has extended invitations to several “friendly nations,” reinforcing diplomatic ties amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Modi's participation would signify India's balancing act in global power dynamics.The US has officially enforced a sweeping 104% tariff on all Chinese imports starting April 9, escalating its trade confrontation with Beijing. The tariff includes existing levies and new duties under Section 301 of the Trade Act. This move follows President Trump's ultimatum to China to withdraw its retaliatory 34% tariffs. With Beijing refusing to back down, the White House has proceeded with the measure. The new tariff is expected to impact global trade flows, raise prices in the US, and further strain US-China economic relations.That's all for today. This was the CatchUp on 3 Things by The Indian Express.

Central banks play a crucial role in modern economies, managing money supply, setting interest rates, and ensuring financial stability. But their relationship with governments, particularly their role as financial agents of the state, creates potential risks that could threaten economic stability. Does the way central banks are structured and operate obscure the true fiscal health of the state, and pose risks for the wider economy? That's what Willem Buiter – former Chief Economist at Citigroup, former member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, among many other things – claims.  In conversation with Tim Phillips, he sets out six challenges that central banks may face in the future and explains what central bankers can do about them.  The discussion paper is here.

In this episode, Argus speaks with Jonathan Haskell, Professor of Economics at Imperial College London and a former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, about how US tariff policy and reciprocal actions by its trading partners will affect the global economy in 2025, and what that may mean for commodity prices.

The Bank of England has cut interest rates for the third time since the inflation crisis, taking the base rate to 4.5 per cent. The Monetary Policy Committee voted by seven to two to further reduce rates by 0.25 percentage points – a move that was widely expected by markets, but had been put into doubt after government borrowing costs surged in January and President Donald Trump announced his plans for substantial tariffs last week. Why have the Bank of England decided to cut rates? Also today, Kemi Badenoch has announced some policy! Ahead of the Labour government's Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill being debated in Parliament next week, the Tory leader has unveiled her party's latest offering on immigration. But have they actually thought it through?  Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Kate Andrews.  Produced by Oscar Edmondson. 

Stephen Grootes speaks to Business Day Editor at Large Hilary Joffe about the IMF's call for greater transparency from the South African Reserve Bank, including more clarity on dissenting votes within the Monetary Policy Committee and the review of the country's inflation target. In other interviews, Consumer Ninja Wendy Knowler talks about unscrupulous agents conning South Africans into debt review.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.