Podcast appearances and mentions of jeff snider

Anyone looking to buy gold really needs to contact today's video sponsor, our friends over at DefytheGrid, using the link below:https://defythegrid.com/c/eurodollaruniversity/Make sure you use Coupon Code: eurodollaruniversityA return to historic low interest rates in Europe is now practically guaranteed. Chances for ultra-low and maybe even zero is becoming too much to ignore. More importantly, why Europe has become a leader of the pack in the race to the bottom. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisECB Press Conference April 2025https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2025/html/ecb.is250417~091c625eb6.en.htmlhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YWkRPdC79Mhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/There are way too many critical financial and monetary signals at crisis levels right now. The 2008 or 2020 comparisons are all over the place. The latest to reach these numbers is derived from silver. By itself, what it has done is alarming. Combined with everything else performing similarly, it's too much to ignore. The reason why is what all these together really mean, exactly what we investigate here. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Anyone looking to by gold really needs to contact today's video sponsor, our friends over at DefytheGrid, using the link below:https://defythegrid.com/c/eurodollaruniversity/Make sure you use Coupon Code: eurodollaruniversityA big move in Japan today, with yields dropping and the yen rising. Both were matched by some truly grim developments and warnings from around the world, everything from AI to the Bank of Canada's extreme case and then some truly grim results in New York. Or, exactly what JGBs and JPY are signaling themselves. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Nvidia Curbs and ASML Warning Spur Global Tech-Stock Routhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/nvidia-supplier-stocks-drop-on-latest-china-export-restrictionsWTO April 2025 Global Trade Outlookhttps://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/trade_outlook25_e.pdfFRBNY April 2025 Business Leaders Survey https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/Survey/business_leaders/2025/2025_04blsreport.pdf?sc_lang=en&hash=F63E9C1D24FCF84A22217C915C713718https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Central bankers all over the world kept saying, nah, we're not going to do it this time. They weren't going to race to the bottom, cutting their interest rates back down to historical lows. And the data keeps coming in that says, yeah, you are. Troubling developments along these lines as Europe goes more for the bottom. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg UK Employment Fell Most Since Pandemic Ahead of Tax Hikehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-15/uk-wage-growth-quickens-employment-falls-in-dilemma-for-boeRueters ECB's Rehn sees stronger case for ECB rate cut in April amid trade warhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecbs-rehn-sees-stronger-case-ecb-rate-cut-april-amid-trade-war-2025-04-09/ZEW press releasehttps://www.zew.de/en/press/latest-press-releases/liberation-day-causes-zew-indicator-to-plungeIEA April 2025https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2025Bloomberg Oil Goes From Bad to Worse in First Takes on 2026https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-04-15/oil-goes-from-bad-to-worse-in-first-takes-on-2026https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Ray Dalio says he believes the economy is already on the edge of a full-blown recession already, and he's hardly alone. However, Dalio also told Meet The Press his main worry is that recession economy getting slammed by a crisis. While Mr. Dalio means persistently higher interest rates, we know that's not what the real markets are pricing even if ultimately this would lead to exactly what he's warning about. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisNBC News Ray Dalio MtPhttps://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/billionaire-investor-ray-dalio-is-worried-about-something-worse-than-recession-full-interview-237257285807Bloomberg Bessent Is Wrong About Banks Saving Treasurieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-04-14/bessent-is-wrong-about-banks-saving-treasuriesFRBNY SCEhttps://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/Bloomberg Fearing Recession, Young People Are Heading to Grad Schoolhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-12/grad-school-interest-surges-as-young-people-fear-recession-bleak-job-markethttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Consumer confidence plummeted to second lowest on record for a series that dates back to 1952 as American workers are afraid for their jobs in way the economy hasn't seen since the worst months of 2009. If that wasn't enough, both consumer and producer price indexes for March declined into deflation...in spite of tariffs. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreUniversity of Michigan Surveys of Consumershttps://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

DXY fell to its lowest value in more than two years. That means the dollar is crashing, right? Everyone says so, but when it comes to the dollar or anything related to the monetary system what everyone says is rarely ever so. The dollar IS going nuts, at least that part's right.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisReuters US dollar stranglehold on global FX sets stage for euro parity: Reuters pollhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/us-dollar-stranglehold-global-fx-sets-stage-euro-parity-2025-01-08/Reuters Next up for markets: A crisis of confidence in the dollarhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/wealth/next-up-markets-crisis-confidence-dollar-2025-04-04/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/One of the most critical and dependable monetary signals we have utterly crashed this week. While other financial markets struggle to regain their footing, this one says there's more disorder still to come along with the negative consequences from it in the real economy. And to punctuate how high the possibilities are, the BLS reported a disturbingly negative CPI for March. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Dodgers return home after an ugly and cold east coast road trip. Despite the poor play, our friend Jeff Snider from Locked On Dodgers joins us to be the voice of reason for this up and down start to the season. All the latest Dodgers news and updates, Freddie Freeman's return and what it means for the lineup, the state of the starting rotation and more on this edition of the All Dodgers Podcast! Share your thoughts in the comments section. Tube in all season long! Leave a voicemail or text the Friend of the Show hotline!

Why are Treasury yields soaring when they should be falling on flight to safety? This is the telltale sign of something we're not supposed to talk about or even recognize. As clear as day, the Treasury market's supposed breakdown explains everything else that's happening alongside it: why there are liquidations and chaos seemingly in every direction. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBasis Trade/Hedge Fund Bailouthttps://youtu.be/MF3B0puKkxUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Downgrades are coming in from all over the place, this one from America's top CEOs. Worse than that, critical segments of the bond market wholeheartedly agree with the increasingly dire assessments, making multiyear lows of their own. Moreover, the latest data on consumer credit fans the flames of ongoing liquidations. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC CEOs think the U.S. is ‘probably in a recession right now,' says BlackRock's Larry Finkhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/ceos-think-the-us-is-probably-in-a-recession-right-now-says-blackrocks-larry-fink.htmlBloomberg Goldman Boosts Recession Risk, Brings Forward Fed Rate-Cut Callhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-07/goldman-boosts-recession-risk-brings-forward-fed-rate-cut-callhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Today was Asia's turn to get pummeled by margin calls, distressed sales, even liquidations. Within all those, there are growing signs of monetary deflation. First, the key role Japan played in what happened. Then, an abrupt selloff in Treasuries which left the mainstream shaking its collective head. Instead, a telltale sign all its own. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Asian Stocks Tumble Most Since 2008 on Global Recession Worrieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-07/asian-stock-benchmarks-drops-most-in-14-years-on-tariff-concernsBloomberg China Stocks Suffer ‘Panic Selling' as Tariff War Escalateshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-07/chinese-stocks-plunge-amid-growing-fear-of-full-blown-trade-warhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Market meltdowns took center stage and attention away from March payroll estimates. They were overshadowed by a rise in unemployment which further cemented growing financial concerns the economy has already fallen into the bad case. That point has previously been raised by a key factor almost everyone had missed. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/If you want to come hang out at Rebel Capitalist Live, Use code jeff (lowercase) at checkout to get $100 off your ticket → https://rebelcapitalistlive.com/Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Downgrade fever is here. It's coming in from private sources as well as central banks, in the US as well as outside of it. The global economy's loss of momentum has become too much to ignore any longer. While that just means everyone will blame tariffs, all those are doing is waking everyone up to what's been happening for some time already.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisAtlanta Fed GDPNow https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowBloomberg Fed's Goolsbee Warns of Tariff-Induced Pullback in Spendinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-01/fed-s-goolsbee-warns-of-tariff-induced-pullback-in-spendingCNBC #RecessionIndicator: Young Americans are losing confidence in the economy — and it shows onlinehttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/27/young-americans-are-losing-confidence-in-economy-and-it-shows-online.htmlCNBC First-quarter GDP growth will be just 0.3% as tariffs stoke stagflation conditions, says CNBC surveyhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/first-quarter-gdp-growth-will-be-just-0point3percent-as-tariffs-stoke-stagflation-conditions-says-cnbc-survey.htmlBloomberg Pimco Favors Stable Returns From Bonds as Recession Risk Buildshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-01/pimco-favors-stable-returns-from-bonds-as-recession-risk-buildsOECD March 2025https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-march-2025_89af4857-en.htmlOECD December 2024https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2024/12/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2024-issue-2_67bb8fac.htmlOECD November 2010https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2010/12/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2010-issue-2_g1ghbb4a/eco_outlook-v2010-2-en.pdfBloomberg France's 2025 Economic Growth Forecast to Be Cut, Minister Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-02/france-s-2025-economic-growth-forecast-to-be-cut-minister-sayshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The selloff in the riskiest corners of the credit market has been significant over the past month, yet there are worries it is nowhere near enough. Some have called it the financial system's gray swan, the most glaring inconsistency nearly everyone is simply ignoring or trying to paper over. As the economy deteriorates - with more evidence today - the risk to the system only gets bigger and louder. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg US Recession Fear Raises ‘Gray Swan' Risk for Bond Investorshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-01/us-recession-worries-raise-gray-swan-risk-for-bond-investorshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

There are growing signs the AI bubble has indeed been a bubble and it may be reversing. That's not great for stocks, obviously, but the potential goes way beyond plaguing equities. There are direct impacts as well as, most importantly, the combination with other negative factors producing a confluence of too many headwinds. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Microsoft Abandons Data Center Projects, TD Cowen Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-26/microsoft-abandons-more-data-center-projects-td-cowen-saysBloomberg Alibaba's Tsai Warns of ‘Bubble' in AI Data Center Buildouthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-25/alibaba-s-tsai-warns-of-a-bubble-in-ai-datacenter-buildoutBloomberg US Credit Risk Gauge Shows Fear Rising as Tariffs Loom This Weekhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-31/us-credit-risk-gauge-shows-fear-rising-as-tariffs-loom-this-weekWSJ Tech Giants Double Down on Their Massive AI Spendinghttps://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/tech-giants-double-down-on-their-massive-ai-spending-b3040b33Goldman Sachs Will the $1 trillion of generative AI investment pay off?https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/will-the-1-trillion-of-generative-ai-investment-pay-offCNBC First-quarter GDP growth will be just 0.3% as tariffs stoke stagflation conditions, says CNBC surveyhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/first-quarter-gdp-growth-will-be-just-0point3percent-as-tariffs-stoke-stagflation-conditions-says-cnbc-survey.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

With recession fears still growing, the government just reported strange results for a key set of economic data. And it's contradicted by a range of other reports, starting with more retailer warnings like the one from Lululemon about store traffic. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Lululemon Plunges With Outlook Hurt by US Consumer Worrieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-27/lululemon-s-us-struggles-weigh-on-sales-outlook-for-coming-yearhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Why are senior researchers and former officials urging the Fed to create a hedge fund bailout? At first, this seems to be about the Treasury market and concerns tied to March 2020. It doesn't take too long, however, to see what's really going on here. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBrookings Treasury market dysfunction and the role of the central bankhttps://www.brookings.edu/articles/treasury-market-dysfunction-and-the-role-of-the-central-bank/Bloomberg Fed Urged to Explore Hedge Fund Bailout Tool for Basis Tradehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-27/fed-urged-to-mull-a-hedge-fund-bailout-facility-for-basis-tradesOFR Hedge Funds and the Treasury Cash-Futures Disconnect https://www.financialresearch.gov/working-papers/files/OFRwp-21-01-hedge-funds-and-the-treasury-cash-futures-disconnect.pdfFOMC Meeting Minutes March 15, 2020https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20200315.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Historic bond buying by European banks kept up again in February. The two-month binge is only surpassed by April and May 2020.  At the same time, no lending to speak of, banks being totally defensive despite rate cuts. The implications are enormous given the background for 2025. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisYou can watch the replay of our last webinar going over the various scenarios for the global economy: https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/27/n0rnxu71sp7b8nb1Eurodollar University's one-time webinar offer for its subscriptions and memberships:https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offerECB The euro area bank lending survey - Fourth quarter of 2024https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/bank_lending_survey/html/ecb.blssurvey2024q4~e1ddae0f19.en.htmlECB Past Macroeconomic Projectionshttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/devel/ecana/html/table.en.htmlECB Using corporate earnings calls to forecast euro area labour demandhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/focus/2025/html/ecb.ebbox202502_04~3283f1bc62.en.htmlBloomberg ECB's Escriva Says Downside Risks Are Outweighing Upside Riskshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-24/ecb-s-escriva-says-downside-risks-are-outweighing-upside-risksBloomberg ECB Rate Cuts Are Neither Finished Nor Automatic, Villeroy Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-25/ecb-rate-cuts-are-neither-finished-nor-automatic-villeroy-saysBloomberg Stournaras Says Everything Points to April ECB Cut: Econostreamhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-21/stournaras-says-everything-points-to-april-ecb-cut-econostreamBloomberg Lagarde Says Uncertainty Means ECB Can't Commit on Rateshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-20/lagarde-says-rising-uncertainty-means-ecb-can-t-commit-on-rateshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

You can watch the replay of the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/27/n0rnxu71sp7b8nb1Eurodollar University's one-time webinar offer for its subscriptions and memberships:https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offerWhy on earth would anyone say we need a serious financial and economic crisis? Simple: it might be the only way to avoid a lot worse. We've had two so far in the last almost twenty years that got us nowhere; worse than nowhere. If nothing else, maybe third time's a charm.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBen Bernanke's pathetic response to some real Congressional questioning in July 2012:https://www.c-span.org/program/house-committee/us-economic-outlook-and-monetary-policy/282124https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

You can watch the replay of the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/27/n0rnxu71sp7b8nb1Eurodollar University's one-time webinar offer:https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offerConsumer confidence collapsed in March, at the same time data on services industries showed much the same. This dramatic loss of momentum is coming up seemingly everywhere, to the point it has Wall Street taking the R-word more seriously than at any time since 2020. Not for nothing, that's what some of these datapoints are looking like. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisConference Board Consmer Confidence March 2025https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidencePhilly Fed March 2025 Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Surveyhttps://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/nbos-2025-03New York Fed Business Leaders Survey https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/business_leaders/bls_overview.htmlChicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC)https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/cfsec/current-dataRichmond Fed Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activityhttps://www.richmondfed.org/region_communities/regional_data_analysis/surveys/service_sectorCNBC DoubleLine's Gundlach sees more risk coming along with greater chance of recessionhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/20/doublelines-gundlach-sees-more-risk-coming-and-greater-chance-of-recession-.html?qsearchterm=gundlachCNBC The probability of a recession is approaching 50%, Deutsche markets survey findshttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/24/the-probability-of-a-recession-is-approaching-50percent-deutsche-markets-survey-finds.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

You can watch the replay of the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/27/n0rnxu71sp7b8nb1FedEx warned that the US economy is now the biggest constraint on the world, experiencing what the shipper currently estimates is a very serious round of "uncertainty." However, incoming data - not to mention the dollar - shows how the situation is becoming more - not less - certain, with a whole host of updates today.  "Uncertainty" simply means "we don't like how this looks."Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC FedEx cuts full-year results forecast on ‘uncertainty' in economy, bad weatherhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/20/fedex-cuts-full-year-results-forecast-on-uncertainty-in-economy-bad-weather.htmlBloomberg Lightspeed Cuts Revenue Outlook on Weakening Consumer Confidencehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-24/lightspeed-tsx-lspd-cuts-revenue-guidance-as-consumer-spending-slowsSPG US PMIshttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/a30301f1804041a083e1a0671ee3df46SPG-HCOB EZ PMIshttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b4bd322643a349e99e8d6f8c290051e0Jibun Japan PMIshttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/7a339d18dce843d68203c0455cb84caahttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Michael Saylor's Strategy sold $700 million in preferred stock Friday, but with an eye-opening 10% dividend attached to be paid in cash. Not stock. Not coins. It was the second straight preferred sale in as many months, though the first one went off at only 8%. Security sales. Trying to get govts and Big Tech to buy Bitcoin. What is going on in the world of BTC? There's a huge STORY here, one that's bigger than Saylor. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisMSTF Pfd Stock Mar 2025https://www.strategy.com/press/strategy-announces-pricing-of-strf-perpetual-preferred-stock_03-21-2025MSTR Pfd Stock Jan 2025https://www.strategy.com/press/microstrategy-announces-pricing-of-strike-preferred-stock-offering-strk_01-31-2025MSTR Convertible Notes Nov 2024https://www.strategy.com/press/microstrategy-completes-3-billion-offering-of-convertible-senior-notes-due-2029-at-0-coupon-and-55-conversion-premium_11-21-2024Bitcoin is perfect moneyhttps://x.com/Cointelegraph/status/1902757116747612169SEC Filings 10-Q Strategy (MSTR)https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001050446/000095017025021814/mstr-20241231.htm#item_8_financial_statements_supplementarMichael Saylor A Digital Assets Strategy to Dominate the 21st Century Global Economyhttps://www.michael.com/a-digital-assets-strategyReason El Salvador Walks Back Its Bitcoin Lawhttps://reason.com/2025/02/03/el-salvador-walks-back-its-bitcoin-law/elsalvador.com https://www.elsalvador.com/noticias/negocios/bitcoin-el-salvador-criptomonedas-iudop-/1194324/2025/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/I am also doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare, you can sign up here:  https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6Canary in the coalmine. Not Mag Seven, Russell. The macroeconomic warnings are coming in from all direction. Small caps. AI bubble. Macro data. Even the Federal Reserve isn't so certain these days. With Nike and FedEx the latest to offer their $0.02, it's a bit more than mere "uncertainty."Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare. You can sign up here:  https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6Following the Fed, the Swiss, Swedes and BoE. Plus a shocking drop in Australian employment that's going to be a factor for RBA, too. Whatever central bankers say today, it's what they're already doing which matters. The upshot is that those currently not engaged in the global race to the bottom (interest rates) are increasingly likely to re-enter it. Mr. Powell, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisSNB statementhttps://www.snb.ch/public/publication/en/www-snb-ch/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20250320/0_en/pre_20250320.en.pdfCNBC International Interview w/SNB's Martin Schlegelhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGghKflsrngBloomberg Swiss Watch Exports Resume Drop on Weak China, US Demandhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-20/swiss-watch-exports-drop-in-february-on-weak-demand-in-china-usMorningstar Bank of England votes 8-1 to keep interest rates on hold at 4.50%https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1742473139383901300/bank-of-england-votes-8-1-to-keep-interest-rates-on-hold-at-450.aspxBloomberg Sweden's Riksbank Holds Rate Steady and Says Easing Is Overhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-20/sweden-s-riksbank-holds-rate-steady-and-signals-easing-is-overRiksbank May 2024 statementhttps://www.riksbank.se/en-gb/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-report/2024/monetary-policy-decision-may-2024/FOMC SEP (and dots)https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20250319.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare. You can sign up here:  https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6The only question is how long the Fed can hold out, not if. With other central banks racing toward the bottom already, the fact those around the FOMC are also speaking with more forceful concerns - even downgrading - their expectations has the Fed effectively trapped, only a step maybe two away from re-entering that same race. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg US Growth Downgrades Appear on Wall Street Amid Policy Turmoilhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-03-10/us-recession-growth-downgrades-appear-on-wall-street-amid-policy-turmoilAtlanta Fed GDPNow https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowAtlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 adjustmentshttps://www.linkedin.com/pulse/gdp-forecasters-some-gold-doesnt-glitter-atlantafed-fxb2e/?trackingId=IKtl2qJkTya%2FgvCxax%2FXEQ%3D%3DBloomberg Fed Needs to Raise Threat of ‘Bad News' Rate Cuts, El-Erian Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-19/el-erian-says-fed-needs-to-raise-threat-of-bad-news-rate-cutshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/I am also doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare, you can sign up here:  https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6After credit spreads had narrowed to near historic lows last month, they've made a major move off them. In fact, the rise in spreads has already equaled last summer. But this year's credit selloff has begun to spread to other segments of the marketplace, including sharp price changes in risky assets like leveraged loans and even private equity. And there is a small hint of yen.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare. You can sign up here:  https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6The big drop in retail sales in January turns out to have been even bigger - much more. And then February consumer spending failed to rebound from it, coming in way below expectations, too. Add retail sales to the growing list on the side of "recession scare." Plus, the bad start to 2025 confirms a whole lot more on that side. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Disappointing Retail Sales Add to Concerns About US Outlookhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-17/us-retail-sales-rise-by-less-than-forecast-after-january-dropNFR CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor Shows February Sales Were Down Monthly Amid Tariff Concernshttps://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/cnbc-nrf-retail-monitor-shows-february-sales-were-down-monthly-amid-tariff-concernsBloomberg The US Economic Outlook Is Becoming More Uncertainhttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-03-17/the-us-economic-outlook-is-becoming-more-uncertainBloomberg Gen Z's Job Recession Needs Urgent Attentionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-03-17/gen-z-job-recession-needs-urgent-attentionhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare. You can sign up here:  https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6The return of zero interest rates. Not in some distant future, right now. A major central bank will be debating the potential return of ZIRP this week. And it is far from alone; policy rates aren't just falling all over the world, they're already a lot closer to the historical lows everyone said we'd never see again. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare. You can sign up here:  https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6Foreign companies are fleeing China in droves as the government there is now smack in the middle of an epic borrowing spree. Those two things are related, both stemming from the same major deficiency: banks. Not central banks; actual banks. And China's institutions continue to explore new depths. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Chinese Stocks Surge as Beijing Plans Briefing on Consumptionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-14/consumer-stocks-drive-china-benchmark-to-highest-level-this-yearBloomberg China Has Record Foreign Investment Outflow as $168 Billion Exithttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-14/china-has-record-foreign-investment-outflow-as-168-billion-exithttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/I am also doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare, you can sign up here:  https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6The global "race to the bottom" for interest rates is already well underway, more than most people might think. They've been led to believe it's just a few rate cuts here or there, when the reality is very different. The Bank of Canada is a perfect example, a central bank that has already lowered its rates by a ton. Markets and fundamentals all say there's more coming; the rate race is far from over. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare. You can sign up here:  https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6Delta airlines in January said business was booming and that the company had confidence there was no end in sight Yesterday, the CEO called the first quarter a "parade of horribles" as economic "uncertainty" spoiled everything. Delta was not alone and not just in terms of airlines. There isn't economic uncertainty, the opposite is taking hold including what was in the February CPI. Not only did it confirm the latest from the carriers, there was a whole lot more in it beside. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisDallas Morning News Walmart CEO warns food prices are causing ‘frustration and pain'https://www.dallasnews.com/business/retail/2025/03/03/walmart-ceo-warns-food-prices-are-causing-frustration-and-pain/Delta Airlines 8-khttps://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000027904/11d5a8ff-be02-448c-84f4-463a77b3365f.pdfBloomberg Delta Air Surges After Bet on More Premium Seats Pays Offhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-10/delta-tops-profit-estimates-on-overseas-business-travel-reboundIBD Delta, American Dive On Slashed Outlooks; But Two Airlines Rallyhttps://www.investors.com/news/delta-air-lines-cuts-q1-2025-guidance-demand-delta-stock-dal/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/I am also doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare, you can sign up here:  https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6While the world is lost in the "recession scare", China comes along and adds its considerable deflationary weight to it by reporting more outright price deflation. Both consumer and producer. Together with a sharp drop in imports, this global loss of macro momentum is certainly not lost on China. That can only mean one thing: more government debt. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNN China's deflation problems get worsehttps://www.cnn.com/2025/03/10/economy/china-cpi-deflation-problems-intl-hnk/index.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare, you can sign up here:  https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6Stocks plunged, bond yields dropped, the R-word is now the common phrase in the media...Jay Powell says everything is just fine and dandy. Even the President is now cautioning the economy might be going through a "transition" and the markets more and more can't get away from it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Bond Market's Trump Trade Is Looking Like a Recession Playhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-09/the-bond-market-s-trump-trade-is-looking-like-a-recession-tradeBloomberg Treasuries Gain as Trump Transition Talk Fuels Recession Angsthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-10/us-credit-risk-rises-as-tariffs-job-cuts-stoke-recession-fearsJay Powell in Chicagohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6pZzfv8AQENBC Dow falls nearly 900 points and Nasdaq dives 4% as stock selloff gathers steamhttps://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/stocks-tank-trump-declines-dismiss-recession-risk-rcna195653https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare, you can sign up here  https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6Hot on the heels of the big drop in employment, global trade soared at the absolute wrong time and for all the wrong reasons. Both point to the same huge loss of economic momentum, now seen coming from places all over the world. China, Canada...even the USA. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Macy's is yet another with a warning on the economy just in time for the payroll numbers on February. They were a disaster if hardly anyone saw the true scale of it. Macy's might have a sense, as do other retailers. The data shows there really is big time trouble brewing in the jobs market.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisSign up for our free March 24 webinar on the big emerging global trends: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6WSJ Macy's Expects Sales to Drop Again This Yearhttps://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/macys-q4-earnings-results-m-stock-d3da1b6aCNBC U.S. payroll growth totals 151,000 in February, less than expectedhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/07/jobs-report-february-2025.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free March 24 webinar right here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6Another bazooka, this time from Germany, of all places. The mere thought of it has been enough to send the German bond market into a tailspin and sending yields to nearly their highest in fourteen years while also pulling other parts of the marketplace into it, too. Does the selloff signal inflation, success, or something else entirely? What are the implications for everyone else?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisPolitico Germany moves to overhaul debt rules to unleash major defense spendinghttps://www.politico.eu/article/germany-unveils-e500-billion-defense-plan-as-security-threats-mount/Roberto Perotti What Do We Know about the Effects of Fiscal Policy?https://www.siepweb.it/siep/wp/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/1397925830013.pdfWilson, Daniel J.. 2012. "Fiscal Spending Jobs Multipliers: Evidence from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4 (3): 251–82.https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/pol.4.3.251https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Target issued another warning on the economy and then joined Best Buy as merely the first to say they're raising prices. While that may sound inflationary, it's the opposite and will end up pushing interest rates even lower. Those are already happening in the market, in part as markets more confidently price how the Fed is going to have to follow along, too. Just like last summer. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Target, Best Buy Warn US Consumers of Tariff Price Hikeshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-04/target-sees-flat-sales-this-year-warns-of-risk-from-tariffsBloomberg Traders Pile Into Fed Rate-Cut Bets as Tariffs Roil Marketshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-04/us-yield-curve-steepens-on-growth-angst-with-tariffs-now-realityAtlanta Fed GDPNowhttps://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Stocks are getting hit, with bond yields tumbling. The "growth scare" gets louder as the luxury car brand just confirmed it's heading for the worst, no longer willing to hold out for economic strength everyone talks about yet never happens. The forgot how to grow economy is firmly at risk of remembering traditional recession mechanics. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWSJ Mercedes-Benz Plans to Cut Jobs as Earnings Expected to Slumphttps://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/mercedes-benz-plans-cost-cuts-as-earnings-expected-to-fall-this-year-6268813aBloomberg S&P 500 Sees Worst Selloff in 2025 as Bonds Climb: Markets Wraphttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-02/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updatesISM Feb 2025https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/february/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Not a good week for financial markets. Oil down. Rates sunk. Stocks hit. Crypto crashing. Why? The "growth scare" is back. Or, at least, it's back in the mainstream. In reality, it never left and certain financial markets are being forced to reckon with this. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreAtlanta Fed GDPNowhttps://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The new guy at the RBI said he wasn't going to interfere with the rupee as much as his predecessor. Apparently, the dollar has left him with little choice. It's the fundamentals that matter. And even India is showing more signs of forgetting how to grow. That's why the dollar has been on a rampage again and why RBI can't let it go. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg India Central Bank's Short Dollar Book Hit Record $77.5 Billionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-28/india-central-bank-s-short-dollar-book-hit-record-77-5-billionIndia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Indiahttps://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2025/02/27/India-2024-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-562726IMF 2018https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2018/08/07/NA080818-India-Strong-Economy-Continues-to-Lead-Global-GrowthMacroVoices Mar-a-lago Accordhttps://macrovoices.podbean.com/e/macrovoices-469-jeff-snider-the-mar-a-lago-accord-seen-through-a-eurodollar-lens/At YT:https://youtu.be/qeu6vrqZ980https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

European banks are surging into safety, buying the third most on record in January. At the same time, they scaled back activities in the real economy expecting further deterioration. Their behavior also backs up market pricing especially interest rates, while also exposing the fallacy behind them. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisECB BLS Q4 2024https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/bank_lending_survey/html/ecb.blssurvey2024q4~e1ddae0f19.en.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Jeff Snider. They'll explore Jeff's criticisms of the current effort and his perspective on how he would approach it differently if he were involved in the Mar-a-Lago discussions. https://bit.ly/4i8hfL4

Why now? After teasing a bank recapitalization plan as part of last year's "bazooka", the CCP did nothing about it over the five months since raising the matter. Total silence. Now, all of a sudden, news banks are going to get their equity after all. What changed? There are a few suspects, starting with growing turmoil in money markets alongside more problems with real estate. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg China to Inject at Least $55 Billion of Fresh Capital Into Several Big Bankshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-26/china-plans-to-start-bank-capital-hike-with-at-least-55-billionBloomberg China's Property Crisis Enters a Dangerous New Phasehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-02-11/china-s-real-estate-crisis-property-sector-debt-is-getting-worseWapo CHINA ANNOUNCES LARGE BOND ISSUE TO BAIL OUT BANKShttps://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1998/03/01/china-announces-large-bond-issue-to-bail-out-banks/adcac8da-fe39-4b4c-90c0-13739847f35c/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, check out what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Rates are down sharply, so much the broad yield curve re-inverted from one critical spot. Given the macro context with crashing consumer confidence and a steep loss of economic momentum, particularly in the services sector, that re-inversion along with a multi-month low in 2-year yields is telling us everything we need to know. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Treasury Yields Slide as Confidence Gauge Stokes Economy Fearshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-25/treasuries-rally-as-traders-boost-bets-on-fed-interest-rate-cutsConference Board Consumer Confidencehttps://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidencehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Is there trouble brewing in the AI bubble? A report came out earlier today that Microsoft was scaling back its investments, one the company denied. Its substance, however, aligns with everything else that's going on, from Warren Buffett curiously choosing not to explain Berkshire's stock selling to the deteriorating conditions in South Korea. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Microsoft Dropped Some AI Data Center Leases, TD Cowen Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-24/microsoft-cancels-leases-for-ai-data-centers-analyst-saysBloomberg South Korea's Chip Exports Lead Trade Gains Fueling Economyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-01/south-korea-s-chip-exports-lead-trade-gains-supporting-economyDow Jones South Korea Government Expects Economy to Slow in 2025https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202501011398/south-korea-government-expects-economy-to-slow-in-2025Bloomberg Bank of Korea Rate Cut Not a Done Deal This Month, Rhee Warnshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-06/bank-of-korea-s-rhee-leaves-door-open-to-another-rate-holdhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, check out what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Walmart the latest to issue a warning. SPG's PMIs crack, particularly services. Consumer confidence tanks. And they call it "uncertainty."Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreSPG PMI press releasehttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c3a10cc3461d4d8aa1758082292e7358https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

A tinderbox waiting to explode? When spreads are this low, and complacency this high, that means everyone is on one side the market. Not because they want to be, they have to be. And they all believe that they'll be able to get to the exits even though everyone is searching for the same signals. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Money Managers See Dangers in Credit's Eerie Calmhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-17/credit-s-eerie-calm-has-some-money-managers-seeing-danger-signsBloomberg Junk Bond Guru Sees Rising Distress Ahead as Banks Tighten Lendinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-15/junk-bond-guru-fridson-sees-rising-distress-ahead-credit-weeklyBIS The market turbulence and carry trade unwind of August 2024https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull90.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU