Podcasts about alhambra investments

Since the July payroll report came out, something seems to have snapped out there in the offshore eurodollar world. Two key sources are signaling a turn toward substantial tightening. Here we go over what those signals are, how to read them in context, and what they mean going forward. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------If you want to see what you've been missing - and it's A LOT - then join us at Eurodollar University. Our memberships have got you covered where it comes to mastering monetary mechanics. You won't find this anywhere else. https://www.eurodollar.university/memberships---------------------------------------------------------------------------FRBNY Triparty Repohttps://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/data-hubhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/sniderYesterday's 10-year note auction produced something we've never seen before, and it totally upended everyone's expectations if not more. With the macro climate being what it is, the 10s sale was a "victim" of the increasingly prominent curve reshaping we're seeing everywhere. And "everywhere" absolutely includes the long bond, the 30-year maturity the mainstream has its sights on. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Big Banks Nearly Get Shut Out of Treasury 10-Year Auctionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-10/big-banks-nearly-get-shut-out-of-treasury-10-year-auctionBloomberg Trump Isn't the Only Reason the Price of Money Is Risinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-11/podcast-trump-isn-t-the-only-reason-the-price-of-money-is-risinghttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

For more information on 21shares and to sign up for their newsletter, visit https://bit.ly/3JTI4GQSubscribe @21Shares on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@21sharesFollow @21Shares on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/21shares_/Follow @21Shares on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/21shares-us/Follow @21Shares on X: https://x.com/21Shares_USIt wasn't actually the record downgrade to payrolls that stood out the most. Far more important, the QCEW confirms there is a very good chance a recession began LAST YEAR. Not just the forgot how to grow kind, a full-blown one even mainstream Economists and the NBER will be recognizing. The evidence continues to show we all went from forgot how to hire to remember how to fire. The Fed's fifty next week is all but set.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says the economy ‘is weakening'https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/09/jpmorgan-jamie-dimon-economy.htmlBloomberg US Payrolls Marked Down a Record 911,000 in Preliminary Estimatehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-09/us-payrolls-estimated-to-be-911-000-lower-in-year-through-marchStanley Fischer The Great Recession: Moving Aheadhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20140811a.htmChristopher Waller Let's Get On with Ithttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/waller20250828a.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUDisclaimerThis video is sponsored by 21Shares. The information provided in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Products mentioned may not be available in all jurisdictions, and their suitability will depend on your individual circumstances. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

A record downward revision to payrolls adds to the evidence the US labor market is in dire shape while also heading in the wrong direction. In this video, we go over not just those details but also look ahead at the possible financial consequences should conditions continue to deteriorate in the way they appear to be. What else might be triggered by job losses in the real economy? More than a few possibilities. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Gold keeps soaring and not because of inflation. We know this without any doubt because as copper prices remain stuck, rising bullion against it has crashed the copper-to-gold ratio down to RECORD LOWS. That isn't about expectations for a crash, instead the market is expressing rising probabilities as to the future. One in which the latest data from FRBNY on job finding expectations fits only too well. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis------------------------------------------------------------------------In a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That's why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on.If you don't have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University's comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you. https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com------------------------------------------------------------------------FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectationshttps://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/scehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

For more information on 21shares and to sign up for their newsletter, visit https://bit.ly/3JTI4GQThere was one key stat from this week which helps explain the increasingly desperate state of the US labor market, offering background behind the "unexpectedly" weak payroll numbers from Friday. August's estimate was its lowest since...May 2009. Given the connection to employment, it all fits together with so many other signals including record low copper-to-gold. Yep, record low. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------For more information on 21shares and to sign up for their newsletter, visit https://bit.ly/3JTI4GQ-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ISM Services August 2025https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/services/august/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUDisclaimerThis video is sponsored by 21Shares. The information provided in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Products mentioned may not be available in all jurisdictions, and their suitability will depend on your individual circumstances. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Payrolls were ugly, a big miss for August on top of revisions to June which pushed the monthly change negative. If that wasn't enough, a rising unemployment rate after a crash in full-time employment. Plus, a plunge in Canadian payrolls punctuate the turning point for North American jobs. Rates were down sharply, no surprise. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University's One Big Weekly Themehttps://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/Eurodollar University's Deep Dive Analysishttps://eurodollar.university---------------------------------------------------------------------------

It's not what everyone says, watch what they do. Big companies and big banks (JPM, too) are making heavy preparations for sharply lower interest rates. The former, in particular, have basically revived the long-dormant commercial paper market in a clear sign. At the same time, US and global banks are remaking their balance sheets in critical and unambiguous ways. Even some Fed officials are now seeing it, too. R is back to being an ultra-low STAR.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University's One Big Weekly Themehttps://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/---------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg America Inc. Swaps Decades for Days in Rush to Commercial Paperhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-02/30-years-try-30-days-america-inc-flocks-to-commercial-paperCNN Be prepared for 7% interest rates, warns Jamie Dimonhttps://www.cnn.com/2023/10/02/investing/jamie-dimon-jpmorgan-7-percent-interest-rate-recessionFRBNY John Williams All the Stars We Cannot Seehttps://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2025/wil250825Bloomberg Won Advances After BOK Governor Defends Currency Interventionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-28/won-gains-after-bok-rhee-s-comments-on-forex-intervention-goalshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Dollar Tree says after seeing a major influx of especially middle-income Americans in its stores, it won't be able to raise prices. The latest jobs data leaves absolutely no doubt why that is. According to the turnover stats, the US labor market LOST jobs in June and July.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WSJ Dollar Tree Shares Fall as Tariffs Dampen Near-Term Outlookhttps://www.wsj.com/business/retail/dollar-tree-boosts-outlook-as-sales-jump-c48b7461WSJ Dollar General Draws Shoppers Across Income Levels, Raises Outlookhttps://www.wsj.com/business/retail/dollar-general-boosts-outlook-after-earnings-rise-95e4bff8https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

After trading conspicuously sideways for the past four months, gold has finally broken out of its range. However, at the same time the US dollar exchange value is threatening to do the same - by moving HIGHER. It's a bad combination: rising gold, higher dollar, and falling interest rates. If any doubts remain about what's really happening, the copper-to-gold ratio leaves everyone no doubt.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University's One Big Weekly Themehttps://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/---------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Why Investors Can't Seem to Get Enough of Goldhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-02/gold-price-record-why-bullion-is-safe-haven-amid-tariffs-inflationhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Chinese stocks are heading into orbit, taking off like a rocket ever since the US and China reached an agreement to not inflict the worst of trade wars. Curiously, though, the Chinese economy has further deteriorated which means the equity surge is looking more and more like something we've seen before from Shanghai.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University's One Big Weekly Themehttps://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/---------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg China Stocks Are Sending Warning Signs on Liquidity-Driven Rallyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-25/china-stocks-are-sending-warning-signs-on-liquidity-driven-rallySCMP 4 reasons fears of China stock market bubble are misplacedhttps://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3323431/four-reasons-fears-china-stock-market-bubble-are-misplacedhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Once Federal Reserve policymakers start making total sense, that's when you know. Officials are seeing the data the same way(s) we are, meaning a mess in jobs combined with an absence of any sign for tariff inflation. A big one came this week with a leading voice voicing caution and a growing possibility for that September fifty. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Christopher Waller Let's Get On with Ithttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/waller20250828a.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

There is no escaping the Pringles can. While the Bank of Canada has been on hold with its rate cutting since March, Canadian GDP, payrolls and even the latest Canadian CPI figures leave no doubt. Plus, the globally synchronized implications will be heard in central bank deliberations worldwide. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I'm excited to share something I've negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER' or filling out the form on the page I've linked below.All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Don't miss out!------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUThis video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank. Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:-Not insured by the FDIC.-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal.  Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.

Two-year Treasury yields set a new almost-year low, falling below their prior April chaos lows. The yield curve is undergoing a profound reshaping that explains a lot more than Jay Powell's Jackson Hole performance. It also perfectly indicates what long-run interest rates are also doing as well as likely to do moving forward.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Goldman Sachs Says US Yield-Curve Shape Looks Like Zero-Rate Erahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-06/goldman-sachs-says-us-yield-curve-shape-looks-like-zero-rate-erahttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Consumer fears over jobs increased yet again in August, as did expectations for a recession. Relatedly, two separate sources confirmed housing prices in the US fell yet again in their latest monthly estimates. Related because the one is causing the other; fears over jobs that aren't strictly fears are reducing demand for homes and a whole lot more. Deep down, even Jay Powell knows it.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Jay Powell's August 2025 Jackson Hole speechhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/powell20250822.pdfConference Board August 2025 consumer confidence https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/Bloomberg Weak US Housing Outlook Sends Australia's Reece Tumblinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-08-25/reece-tumbes-lithium-optimism-us-stocks-australia-briefinghttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

France's government is going to collapse again in a couple weeks. While everyone was distracted by trade wars, the underlying schism in politics remained unresolved. France is between a rock and a hard place, trying to fix its budget. Here's the thing: both the rock and the hard place are the same thing. Eurodollar University's Money and Macro AnalysisI'm excited to share something I've negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER' or filling out the form on the page I've linked below.All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Don't miss out!------------------------------------------------------------------------------------CNN France fears new political crisis after PM's confidence-vote gamblehttps://www.cnn.com/2025/08/25/europe/francois-bayrou-french-confidence-vote-intlCNBC ‘Our country is in danger': French PM takes confidence vote gamble over budget woeshttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/26/french-pm-takes-confidence-vote-gamble-over-budget-woes.htmlBloomberg France's Government Risks New Collapse, Weighing on Marketshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-25/france-s-government-risks-another-collapse-weighing-on-marketsBloomberg French Political Crisis Dashes Hope of Business-Led Recoveryhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-27/france-s-political-crisis-dashes-hopes-of-business-led-recoveryhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUThis video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank. Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:-Not insured by the FDIC.-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal.  Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.

Home sales are down. Prices are falling. Inventories are rising. Record number of cancelations. And this is for July, not just a prime sales month in real estate, also three months after the events April. Stocks are soaring and trade deals have been struck. Where are all the buyers? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I'm excited to share something I've negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER' or filling out the form on the page I've linked below.All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Don't miss out!------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Redfin News Home Purchases Are Getting Canceled at a Record Ratehttps://www.redfin.com/news/home-purchase-cancellations-july-2025/Bloomberg US New-Home Sales Exceed Forecast Following Upward Revisionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-25/us-new-home-sales-exceed-forecast-following-upward-revisionBloomberg US Homebuilder Sentiment Retreats as Buyers Lack Motivationhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-18/us-homebuilder-sentiment-retreats-as-buyers-lack-motivationNAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 2.0% Increase in Julyhttps://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-2-0-increase-in-julyhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUThis video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank. Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:-Not insured by the FDIC.-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal.  Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Something has changed in China. Something big. Bank lending dropped sharply, more than it has. Fixed investment suddenly crashed. Retail sales contracted in a way China hasn't experienced since 2022's lockdowns. The usual economic and financial decay has been taken up a notch, if not two. So, naturally, Chinese stocks are soaring, one final negative signal. Yes, negative.Eurodollar University Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

There were several key points from Jay Powell's speech at Jackson Hole which everyone seems to have missed. The market picked up on them, however, with SOFR futures reacting by pushing its inversion deeper and further out, now early 2027. What Chair Powell meant under everything he said was he finally gets the big Beveridge risk.  Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I'm excited to share something I've negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER' or filling out the form on the page I've linked below.All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Don't miss out!------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Chair Powell's Jackson Hole Speechhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/powell20250822.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUThis video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank. Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:-Not insured by the FDIC.-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal.  Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Jay Powell vs. Ronald McDonald? The FOMC yesterday published the minutes of its July meeting which showed a majority of officials believe inflation is the country's greatest threat. So, it was a huge shock when the world's biggest fast-food joint reported - ON THE SAME DAY - it was doing the opposite. Even the FOMC "majority" isn't as solid as it is made to appear, as the minutes also contained one observation that really does align with these real economy facts. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here here: monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------FOMC Minutes for July 2025https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20250730.pdfFox Business McDonald's to slash combo meal prices to win back budget-conscious shoppershttps://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/mcdonalds-slash-combo-meal-prices-win-back-budget-conscious-shoppersCNN McDonald's is cutting prices of its combo meals to convince customers it's affordable againhttps://www.cnn.com/2025/08/20/food/mcdonalds-combo-lower-pricesBloomberg Fed Chair Contender Bullard Backs 100 Basis Points of 2025 Cutshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-21/fed-chair-contender-bullard-backs-100-basis-points-of-2025-cutsBloomberg US Stocks Extend Slide as Walmart Misses, Jobless Claims Risehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-21/us-equity-futures-fall-as-walmart-misses-jobless-claims-risehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I'm excited to share something I've negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER' or filling out the form on the page I've linked below.All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/.Target suffered another quarterly drop in sales. And the reason why was given by the CEO of Home Depot commenting on his own company's struggles. Laying down some truth, for once, these big retailers are adding more color and confirmation to why the market keeps betting more forcefully for the September Fed 50. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUThis video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank. Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:-Not insured by the FDIC.-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal.  Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.

With Monetary Metals, you don't just hold gold, you earn a real yield on it, paid monthly in physical gold, without ever giving up ownershipYou can learn more here  http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Corporate credit is filled with what appear to be contradictions, with some spread categories tumbling to their lowest levels since the late nineties. Yet, delinquencies and risks are rising and doing so in a way everyone is recognizing. So, why the complacency? It's a combination of several critical - perhaps killer - factors that tie in to commercial real estate. We have some related updates on that are, too. Eurodollar University's Money and Macro AnalysisBloomberg US Corporate Bond Spreads Sink to 27-Year Low as ‘FOMO' Sets Inhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-15/us-corporate-bond-spreads-sink-to-27-year-low-as-fomo-sets-in

I'm excited to share something I've negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER' or filling out the form on the page I've linked below.All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/It's gotten so bad that serious Wall Street commentators are openly talking about yield curve control for Treasuries - just like they did four years ago. Yet, YCC never happened for the same reason it won't happen today. While the same people calling for the Fed to buy bonds in order to stabilize interest rates say this is needed because foreigners are ditching USTs and the dollar, the latest data shows the opposite is happening. Again.This video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank. Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:-Not insured by the FDIC.-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal.  Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I'm excited to share something I've negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER' or filling out the form on the page I've linked below.All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Don't miss out!Last month was Amazon Prime "Day" - now four - and after it was over the whole thing just disappeared down a memory hole. Why? Ask the boxes. What box-makers are reporting is getting to be disturbing. No wonder with the latest on consumer sentiment, consumer goods production, and consumer spending hanging by a tariff-distorted thread.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisAmazon Prime https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/retail/prime-day-2025-recapRetail Dive Amazon once again touts ‘record' Prime Day saleshttps://www.retaildive.com/news/amazon-prime-day-2025-record-sales/753034/Bloomberg What Declining Cardboard Box Sales Tell Us About the US Economyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-14/cardboard-box-sales-fall-in-worrying-sign-for-us-retailUofM August 2025 Consumer Sentimenthttps://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUThis video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank. Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:-Not insured by the FDIC.-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal.  Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

With Monetary Metals, you don't just hold gold, you earn a real yield on it, paid monthly in physical gold, without ever giving up ownershipYou can learn more here  http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/HSBC reported shocking results regarding its Hong Kong real estate loans further establishing the proportions of the credit crisis underway there. The news was, however, in line with recent developments in the city, among its banks, and with their Chinese counterparts. The reason was simple enough: all of them are suffering from the same fatal flow which the world, not just SE Asia, is in the middle of paying for. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisReuters HSBC profit tumbles as China losses mounthttps://www.reuters.com/business/finance/hsbc-profit-tumbles-china-losses-mount-2025-07-30/Guardian https://slguardian.org/hsbc-flags-73-of-hong-kong-commercial-property-loans-as-risky-amid-market-slump/Bloomberg Hong Kong's Economy Has Two Gravity-Defying Puzzleshttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-08-11/hong-kong-interest-rates-and-housing-market-are-puzzlesBloomberg Hong Kong Property Woes Persist Despite Banks' Vote of Confidencehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-07-01/hong-kong-property-woes-persist-despite-banks-vote-of-confidencehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://youtu.be/gY3Wge-v1sI

I'm excited to share something I've negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER' or filling out the form on the page I've linked below.All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Don't miss out!Oil tumbled today nearing its multi-year low as a massive supply glut hangs over the marketplace. But it's not supply where the glut is coming from. Meanwhile, rates also tumble as everyone - even the media - is getting ready for a September fifty out of the FOMC. In fact, these and the rest of the evidence are all the same thing, different sides of the same crude coin. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Global Oil Markets Face Record Supply Glut Next Year, IEA Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-13/global-oil-markets-face-record-supply-glut-next-year-iea-saysIEA August 2025https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-august-2025Bloomberg Bets on Outsize Fed Cut Gain Steam as CPI Data Backs Doveshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-12/bets-on-outsize-fed-cut-gain-steam-as-inflation-data-backs-dovesBloomberg CPI Report Boosts Market Bets on Larger September Fed Rate Cuthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-13/bets-on-outsize-fed-cut-gain-steam-as-cpi-data-backs-dovesBloomberg Bessent Urges Fed to Lower Rates by 150 Basis Points or Morehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-13/bessent-says-rates-should-likely-be-150-175-basis-points-lowerhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUThis video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank. Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:-Not insured by the FDIC.-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal.  Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.

With Monetary Metals, you don't just hold gold, you earn a real yield on it, paid monthly in physical gold, without ever giving up ownershipYou can learn more here  http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I'm excited to share something I've negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER' or filling out the form on the page I've linked below.All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Don't miss out!The macro situation is worse this summer compared to last summer, so where's Japan's carry trade? If the July 2024 jobs report provoked a violent financial backlash, you'd think the July 2025 version would have, too. The fact it didn't points to several key developments, important warnings from JPY and JGBs. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUThis video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank. Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:-Not insured by the FDIC.-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal.  Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.

I'm excited to share something I've negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER' or filling out the form on the page I've linked below.All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Don't miss out!Both McDonald's and Wendy's reported this past week that more Americans are skipping breakfast, not for some health fad but increasingly harsh economic circumstances. That view was further corroborated by the Fed which showed credit card usage fell again for the second straight time, a critical cyclical signal confirming the swing in the consumer economy. So, another Fed official tilts toward rate cuts. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Fast-Food Breakfast Sales Fade as Diners Eat at Home, Skip Mealshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-08/fast-food-breakfast-sales-fade-as-diners-eat-at-home-skip-mealsReuters Fed's Musalem: There are risks now to both the inflation and jobs goalshttps://www.reuters.com/business/feds-musalem-there-are-risks-now-both-inflation-jobs-goals-2025-08-08/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUThis video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank. Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:-Not insured by the FDIC.-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal.  Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.

With Monetary Metals, you don't just hold gold, you earn a real yield on it, paid monthly in physical gold, without ever giving up ownershipYou can learn more here  http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/The July jobs report has sparked an overdue reexamination of a bunch of "truths" everyone has simply take for granted: inflation is the biggest risk, bonds are being rejected because of debt, etc. Goldman Sachs finally decided to check that actual yield curve and was utterly shocked to find zero interest rates all over it. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreBloomberg Goldman Sachs Says US Yield-Curve Shape Looks Like Zero-Rate Erahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-06/goldman-sachs-says-us-yield-curve-shape-looks-like-zero-rate-erahttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter/X: https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I'm excited to share something I've negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER' or filling out the form on the page I've linked below.All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Don't miss out!This had never happened before, an unprecedented vote for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. Despite it, the Pringles can remains undeterred since this is what rate cutting cycles are. The destination remains the same and another drop in employment in the UK as well as France further proves it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUThis video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank. Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:-Not insured by the FDIC.-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal.  Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.

I'm excited to share something I've negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER' or filling out the form on the page I've linked below.All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Don't miss out!Everything continues to point directly toward much lower rates, including what is setting up to be a repeat of last summer. As Steve and I said a few days ago in the wake of the unambiguously bad jobs report, watch the market and the Fed speakers this week. It's been only two days and they're doing just what we thought they would, putting the FOMC back on the road swaps paved for a fifty in September. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisReuters Exclusive: Fed's Daly says time is nearing for rate cuts, may need more than twohttps://www.reuters.com/business/feds-daly-says-time-is-nearing-rate-cuts-may-need-more-than-two-2025-08-04/Dow Jones Kashkari leans toward rate cut as concerns about an economic slowdown grow at the Fedhttps://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20250806162/kashkari-leans-toward-rate-cut-as-concerns-about-an-economic-slowdown-grow-at-the-fedBloomberg Fed's Kashkari Says Rate Cut May Be Appropriate in Near Termhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-06/fed-s-kashkari-says-rate-cut-may-be-appropriate-in-near-termBloomberg Bets on Fed Rate Cuts Are Sweeping Through US Bond Markethttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-05/bets-on-fed-rate-cuts-are-sweeping-through-the-us-bond-marketBloomberg Trump Says He Will Decide on Fed Governor Before End of the Weekhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-05/trump-says-he-will-decide-on-fed-governor-before-end-of-the-weekhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUThis video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank. Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:-Not insured by the FDIC.-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal.  Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.

The Federal Reserve reported a record increase in student loan delinquencies to go with high rates of souring household loans in credit cards and auto lending. The distress is another confirmation of macro deterioration starting with jobs and incomes. And that's just what the latest major economic release on US services showed today -- another alarming drop for employment. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis*****EDU's One Big Weekly Thinghttps://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/*****https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Huge moves at the front part of the interest rate curve. Bills did something we haven't seen since April. Meanwhile, forward rates reacted to Friday's payroll numbers with crisis-level hedging and then held those prices today. Why? Simple: payrolls were the last of it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis*****With Monetary Metals, you don't just hold gold, you earn a real yield on it, paid monthly in physical gold, without ever giving up ownershipYou can learn more here  http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/*****Bloomberg Job Market Healthy Despite ‘Disappointing' Report, Fed's Hammack Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-01/fed-s-hammack-says-job-market-healthy-despite-disappointing-datahttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

With Monetary Metals, you don't just hold gold, you earn a real yield on it, paid monthly in physical gold, without ever giving up ownershipYou can learn more here  http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/After a crazy week with everything else going on, copper's historic plunge almost flew under everyone's radar. But now with copper prices getting beyond tariff distortions, settling back in to the fundamentals revealed a shocking development - one that absolutely fits with everything else for the week, especially the payroll disaster. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

*****To sign up and get started with GlintPay, go to glintpay.com and make sure to use the code SNIDER.*****The dollar is surging again. And while it's primary the euro taking the other side, just as importantly, if not more importantly, currencies like the rupee are tanking worse. INR hit another record low and that along with the euro's sharp reverse is a canary singing in the eurodollar coalmine...perhaps gasping. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

With Monetary Metals, you don't just hold gold, you earn a real yield on it, paid monthly in physical gold, without ever giving up ownershipYou can learn more here  http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/******Eurodollar University's One Big Thing Weeklyhttps://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/Eurodollar University's Anniversary Salehttps://www.eurodollar.university/sale******Housing prices slid even farther in May, echoing previous data which has shown material weakness all across US real estate markets. The source of this downturn in housing isn't interest rates whatsoever. The rest of the days data showed instead where this is really coming from, starting with some truly grim results where it counts the most: hiring. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg US Housing Market Posts Worst Spring Selling Season in 13 Yearshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-28/us-real-estate-market-high-prices-mortgage-rates-hamper-spring-home-sellingBloomberg US Job Openings Fall to 7.44 Million After Back-to-Back Jumpshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-29/us-job-openings-fall-to-7-44-million-after-back-to-back-jumpsBloomberg Even Top Earners Are Falling Behind on Credit Card and Car Paymentshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-29/credit-cards-car-loans-see-defaults-from-high-earners-in-hit-to-economyConference Board Consumer Confidence July 2025https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The supply glut was never canceled. Almost everyone and every part of the oil market remains convinced it is happening, the potential weighing on prices and movements even if occasionally geopolitics gains control over short run periods. Important macro updates from Ireland to India further prove why the glut isn't being led by global supply. And if it wasn't enough sharp declines in US usage help clear it up even more. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis******Eurodollar University's One Big Thing Weeklyhttps://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/Eurodollar University's Anniversary Salehttps://www.eurodollar.university/sale******Total Energies Q2 Reporthttps://totalenergies.com/system/files/documents/totalenergies_2Q25-results-press-release_2025_en.pdfBloomberg Oil Caught Between a $70 Summer and Growing Surplus Fearshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-27/oil-prices-caught-between-a-70-summer-and-growing-surplus-fearsBloomberg Ireland's Economy Just Shrank for the First Time Since 2023https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-28/ireland-s-economy-just-shrank-for-the-first-time-since-2023Bloomberg India Warns of Trade Risks Amid Trump Tariffs, Global Slowdownhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-28/india-warns-of-trade-risks-amid-trump-tariffs-global-slowdownReuters China's industrial profits fall further in Junehttps://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-industrial-profits-fall-further-june-2025-07-27/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The JGB curve isn't behaving the way it "should", nor is that behavior universal to the entire curve. Not only that, similar patterns are playing out in US$ forward markets like term SOFR futures. Each of these curves are pricing therefore predicting the same general set of future outcomes, and, wildly enough, enormous difficulties in figuring out how and when to get there because of the same reason. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre********If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/********https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Assuming the economy continues its downturn as all the major markets are pricing, what would that look like and what should we be looking for? That leads into the question of how deflationary money becomes a deflationary or depression economy in the first place. That means we need to examine economic mechanisms. Eurodollar University's Make It Make Sense******Eurodollar University's One Big Thing Weeklyhttps://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/Eurodollar University's Anniversary Salehttps://www.eurodollar.university/sale******https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

June housing data is in...and it is looking worse for real estate in the US. The Florida market is leading the way. Everyone is blaming "historically high rates" for the growing bust. Not only is that demonstrably false, the real reason has broad implications for interest rates and a lot more.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis******If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/************https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/Eurodollar University's Anniversary Salehttps://www.eurodollar.university/sale******NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 2.7% Decrease in Junehttps://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-2-7-decrease-in-juneNewsweek Map Shows Where Florida House Prices Are Dropping Fastesthttps://www.newsweek.com/map-where-florida-house-prices-dropping-fastest-2099013Newsweek Florida Housing Market Doing Something 'Unusual' in Multiple Citieshttps://www.newsweek.com/florida-housing-market-doing-something-unusual-multiple-cities-2094174WUSF 'Nothing's falling off the cliff': A look into Florida's real estate market, slowdown of home saleshttps://www.wusf.org/the-florida-roundup/2025-06-16/a-look-into-florida-real-estate-markethttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The ECB's latest Bank Lending Survey (BLS) adds more evidence to the behavior we've already been chronicling from among Europe's and the world's financial institutions. They are increasingly negative on especially consumers. We know what that means, too: jobs. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis******https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/Eurodollar University's Anniversary Salehttps://www.eurodollar.university/sale******ECB Second Quarter 2025 Bank Lending Survey https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.pr250722~17414c3656.en.htmlWorld Bank Global Economy Set for Weakest Run Since 2008 Outside of Recessionshttps://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/06/10/global-economic-prospects-june-2025-press-releasehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

There are reports HK bankers are already informally discussing how to structure a "bad bank." Earlier today, other reports said monetary authorities in Hong Kong were circulating the "crisis letter." The situation has taken a turn for the serious, a warning to the rest of the world because what HK is trying desperately to come to grips with is the same major problem as everyone else has, where the bubbles and now busts came from in the first place. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis******https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/Eurodollar University's Anniversary Salehttps://www.eurodollar.university/sale******HKMA's "Crisis Letter"https://www.hkma.gov.hk/media/eng/publication-and-research/reference-materials/banking/fa03.pdfBloomberg Hong Kong Regulators Revive Crisis Playbook to Rescue Landlordshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-07-22/hong-kong-regulators-revive-crisis-playbook-to-rescue-landlordsBloomberg Hong Kong's $25 Billion Pile of Soured Debt Spurs Talks to Form ‘Bad Bank'https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-16/hong-kong-s-25-billion-debt-woe-sparks-talks-on-bad-bankFitch Lower HIBOR May Not Fully Address Hong Kong Banks' Asset Quality Pressurehttps://www.fitchratings.com/research/banks/lower-hibor-may-not-fully-address-hong-kong-banks-asset-quality-pressure-19-05-2025HIBOR rateshttps://www.hkab.org.hk/en/rates/hiborhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Payback is finally here? The implications of the latest report on trade suggest we're finally moving far enough away from all the recent distortions to gain a better sense of whether this really is the "main event." One of those warns trade volumes might crash from here. Plus, another critical forward-leaning measure just flashed a recession signal. All of which consistent with market positions. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis******If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/************https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/Eurodollar University's Anniversary Salehttps://www.eurodollar.university/sale******Bloomberg US Container Volumes Set for Sharp Reversal on Tariff Disruptionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-21/us-container-volumes-set-for-sharp-reversal-on-tariff-disruptionCNBC Port of Los Angeles sees record container traffic as shippers race to beat Trump's tariff deadlineshttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/14/port-of-los-angeles-record-container-traffic-trade-war-shipping-tariffs.htmlCNBC In middle of Trump's trade war, importers hold more cash and move inventory off the bookshttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/14/trump-trade-war-tariffs-supply-chain-inventory-cash.htmlCNBC Online shopping sees biggest slowdown in over decade as tariffs disrupt e-commerce: Surveyhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/01/online-retail-sees-biggest-slowdown-in-decade-tariffs-hit-e-commerce.htmlBloomberg Bessent Says Fed ‘A Little Off,' Flags Signal From Two-Year Ratehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-03/bessent-says-fed-a-little-off-flags-signal-from-two-year-ratehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Moody's latest report on credit market dynamics showed a significant increase in the number of distressed borrowers, primarily those relating to private equity. In addition, bank stats show that while everyone else has forgotten about commercial real estate and its underlying bust, domestic banks have not and have been quietly yet persistently reducing their exposures to it. Participants in both sectors are following the same rule of thumb: avoid defaults at all costs. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre ******EDU Memberships Anniversary Salehttps://www.eurodollar.university/sale******Bloomberg Fed's Waller Hints at July Dissent as He Makes Case for Rate Cuthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-18/fed-s-waller-says-private-sector-job-worries-drive-rate-cut-callBloomberg Waller Says Fed Should Cut Rates Now With Labor Market on Edgehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-17/waller-says-fed-should-cut-rates-now-with-labor-market-on-edgehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Two major markets, two VERY different conclusions and outlooks. The diverging views and prices revolve around what really happened in April. Was it a one-off overreaction to tariffs? Or was the deflation confirmation of more than just potential volatility? Both markets are doubling and tripling down on their separate views, each reaching record or near-record levels for them. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis******If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/************Eurodollar University's Anniversary Salehttps://www.eurodollar.university/sale************Eurodollar University July 10 Webinar Replayhttps://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/29/3y5kpclzi20tz1t5******https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Only a week after the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to pause its rate cutting series, the Australian government reported a rash of exceptionally weak labor data, including the highest unemployment rate for the country in four years. RBA wasn't alone; the Bank of England is finding out the same in the same hard way. Central bank rate cut pauses aren't unusual, and they almost always end just like this.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis******If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/******ONS UK CPI June 2025https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/june2025Bloomberg UK Unemployment Increases to 4.7%, Highest Rate in Four Yearshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-17/uk-firms-cut-jobs-wage-growth-slows-in-cooling-labor-markethttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Three months ago, hotel operators were confident that the consumer downturn they were experiencing would end being a relatively quick pain. After the tariff matter was finally settled, Americans would sure go back to spending as they always seemed to. Instead, a whole bunch of critical and alarming data out just today has poured oceans of deflationary cold water on the recovery hope. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisReuters Hilton cuts 2025 revenue growth forecast as US travel demand softenshttps://www.reuters.com/business/hilton-cuts-2025-revenue-growth-forecast-economic-uncertainty-weighs-2025-04-29/PRNewswire WYNDHAM HOTELS & RESORTS REPORTS STRONG FIRST QUARTER RESULTShttps://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/wyndham-hotels--resorts-reports-strong-first-quarter-results-302442939.htmlWyndham lowers 2025 RevPAR expectations amid dampened consumer sentimenthttps://www.hoteldive.com/news/wyndham-q1-2025-earnings-lower-revpar/746863/YahooFinance United, American, Southwest all surge after Delta's outlook lifts fortunes for US airlineshttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/united-american-southwest-all-surge-after-deltas-outlook-lifts-fortunes-for-us-airlines-144400677.htmlBloomberg US Producer Prices Stagnated on Decline in Services Costshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-16/us-producer-prices-stagnated-on-decline-in-services-costshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Five months and little to show for it. Tariffs have been applied for that long, yet consumer prices remain suspiciously tame. The real story isn't the possible pass-through of trade duties, its why that isn't happening on a far broader basis. We got more evidence for why from American bank balance sheets. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBLS June 2025 CPIhttps://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htmBloomberg US Core CPI Rises Less Than Expected Again Despite Tariff Impacthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-15/us-core-cpi-rises-less-than-expected-for-a-fifth-straight-monthBloomberg US 30-Year Yield Tops 5% as Traders Pare Bets on Rate Cutshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-15/treasuries-gain-after-inflation-report-meets-economists-forecasthttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, had some very harsh words and a pointed warning. He said the world was at high risk from tariffs. And while the activities of "his" bank largely agree with the high degree of risk, it's the complete opposite from what Dimon said publicly. This is not the first time this has happened, either. When the risks are greatest, JPM's CEO says one thing while JPM itself does the opposite. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis*****If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/*****JP Morgan letter to shareholders April 2024https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/ceo-letter-to-shareholders-2023.pdfJP Morgan second quarter 2024 press statementhttps://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/quarterly-earnings/2024/2nd-quarter/36a0b862-cc80-4e28-bf1b-5cfa07dc9637.pdfBloomberg JPMorgan's Dimon Warns Markets Are Complacent on Tariffshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-10/dimon-says-an-eu-us-tariff-framework-needs-to-get-doneBloomberg Dimon Says Prepare for 4% Yields, Potential Volatility Risehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-08/dimon-says-prepare-for-4-yields-sees-potential-volatility-riseCNBC Jamie Dimon cautions the 10-year Treasury yield could hit 5%: ‘It's a higher probability than most people think'https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/06/jp-morgans-jamie-dimon-cautions-10-year-treasury-note-rate-to-hit-5-percent.htmlBloomberg Weakest U.S. Bond Auction in Decade Validates Dimon's Warninghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-08/low-yield-bad-seasonals-and-trade-trip-up-u-s-10-year-auctionhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU