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After Home Depot disappointed and Target got slammed, Walmart reported results that were above expectations because in this economic climate the Target and Home Depot's losses are Walmart's gains. And its strength came from all income brackets, though high-income Americans are increasingly turning to Walmart. That's not good. But it does fit with the long-delayed payroll data that just came out, which you'll be shocked to learn has another revision turning another monthly number negative. That makes two. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------FOMC October 2025 Minuteshttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20251029.pdfNBC News Walmart raises sales outlook, boosted by e-commerce and higher-income shoppershttps://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/walmart-earnings-ecommerce-rcna244853CNBC Walmart hikes sales and earnings forecast as it attracts shoppers across incomeshttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/20/walmart-wmt-q3-2026-earnings.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
While everyone else is glued to Nvidia, the results from Home Depot and Target will have far more to say about the markets and a lot more. Plus others like TJ Maxx, Bitcoin and the surprising Fed minutes that has a lot to say about the status of December's rate cut.Bloomberg Wary Stock Bulls Eye Walmart, Target for Clues to Consumer Healthhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-11-17/wary-stock-bulls-eye-walmart-target-for-clues-to-consumer-health?srnd=phx-economics-v2Economic Times TGT stock falls today as Target cuts guidance and predicts weak holiday saleshttps://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/tgt-stock-falls-today-as-target-cuts-guidance-and-predicts-weak-holiday-sales/articleshow/125437666.cms?from=mdrRead more at:https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/tgt-stock-falls-today-as-target-cuts-guidance-and-predicts-weak-holiday-sales/articleshow/125437666.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppstYahooFinance Target cuts earnings guidance, warns about high prices, and predicts a weak holiday seasonhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/target-cuts-earnings-guidance-warns-about-high-prices-and-predicts-a-weak-holiday-season-113001475.htmlCNBC TJ Maxx and Marshalls owner hikes outlook as CEO says holiday season is off to a ‘strong start'https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/19/tjx-companies-tjx-earnings-q3-2026.htmlFOMC Minuteshttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20251029.pdf
We went from the economy is strong and resilient, credit markets are fine reaching for yield to big names like Jamie Dimon and now so-called bond king Jeffrey Gundlach openly talking about cockroaches and garbage lending that are looking more like 2006 and 2007 every day. We've even got news of more hedge fund redemptions. Unlike a few months ago, now all of a sudden the possibilities seem plausible to people who forever refused to even consider the idea. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Jeffrey Gundlach Warns of ‘Garbage Lending' as Private Credit Boomshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-17/gundlach-slams-garbage-lending-in-private-credit-marketBloomberg Blue Owl Plunges to 2023 Low After Blocking Exit From Fundhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-17/blue-owl-plunges-to-2023-low-after-blocking-exit-from-early-fundBloomberg Funding Market Strains Spur Wall Street Calls for More Action From Fedhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-13/funding-market-strains-spur-wall-street-calls-for-more-action-from-fedhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The European labor market is on the cusp of its own flat Beveridge moment. That danger was amplified by the third quarter contraction in the Swiss economy, which, as we know, is a key leading global indicator. And if all that wasn't enough, a group of German Economists, of all people, just tore into the mainstream European narrative of Europe being in a good place. They even went so far as correctly, of course, crap all over the Berlin bazooka. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis-------------------------------------------------------------------Get the free guide that breaks down the real economic signals behind America's shrinking consumer demand, and how to protect your wealth before the slowdown hits your income: https://web.eurodollar-university.com/home-------------------------------------------------------------------euronews Weak eurozone growth meets flat jobs market as bankruptcies surgehttps://www.euronews.com/business/2025/11/14/weak-eurozone-growth-meets-flat-jobs-market-as-bankruptcies-surgeBloomberg Merz Advisers Revise 2026 German Growth Forecast to Below 1%https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-12/merz-advisers-revise-2026-german-growth-forecast-to-below-1DW Germany news: Economic experts call for change of coursehttps://www.dw.com/en/germany-news-economic-experts-call-for-change-of-course/live-74708934https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
An unprecedented slump in Chinese investment. That's what one media outlet called it. I don't think slump is the right word. Crash might be a more appropriate one. While that tends to be overused, the numbers show not in this case. Especially when they are backed up by a crash in household lending in China, too, as Chinese banks just put up more grim stats. And all of this confirmation of what I told you months ago, the something big has changed over there this summer. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg China's Investment Crash Puzzles Economists and Threatens Growthhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-14/china-s-investment-crash-puzzles-economists-and-threatens-growthBloomberg PBOC Justifies Loan Slowdown Following Record Contractionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-11/pboc-justifies-loan-slowdown-following-record-contractionhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Big moves across the risk markets this week. Bitcoin and crypto hammered. Repo back on the menu. WTI full contango (briefly). Plus, top officials at the New York Fed soft confirming the start of the next not-QE QE. What does it all mean?Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreWhat is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery—it's a method. If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. Mainstream education has left so many massive gaps on the most foundational concepts, making sense of everything is practically impossible otherwise. With our memberships, we'll fill in everything that you've been missing. https://eurodollar.university/memberships https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Flat Beveridge strikes again. You know the drill. We've been stuck in forgot how to grow and its no-hire/no-fire labor market the past few years. That began to change last year, especially last summer when no-hiring somehow got to be even less hiring. Then last year and this year, no-firing became some firing, in other words, shifting to the flat part of the Beveridge curve. But what we've been getting more recently looks to be an escalation in firing. Verizon just announced it may be cutting 15% of its 100,000 strong workforce. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Texas Service Sector Outlook Surveyhttps://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tssos/2025/2510#tab-reportBloomberg Verizon Eyes Up to 15,000 Layoffs as New CEO Takes Chargehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-13/verizon-layoffs-could-come-next-week-as-new-ceo-takes-chargeCNBC White House says October jobs and inflation data may never be released because of the shutdownhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/12/white-house-october-data-release.htmlBloomberg Fed's Perli Says Won't Be Long Before Fed Starts Buying Assetshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-12/fed-s-perli-says-won-t-be-long-before-fed-starts-buying-assetshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The collapse and bankruptcy of another private credit supported firm has generated significant losses this week. But as I pointed out last week with the shuttered UBS sponsored hedge funds, it isn't necessarily the amount of money being burned. It's what each of these cockroaches reveals, and how they add to the growing mistrust about the entire private credit shadow banking network. That's the real danger which could threaten to unravel a whole lot more than a few troubled firms. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis-------------------------------------------------------------------Get the free guide that breaks down the real economic signals behind America's shrinking consumer demand, and how to protect your wealth before the slowdown hits your income https://web.eurodollar-university.com/home-------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg BlackRock Faces 100% Loss on Private Loan, Adding to Credit Market Painhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-10/blackrock-eyes-100-loss-on-private-loan-amid-debate-over-marksBloomberg Why First Brands Has Sparked So Many Concerns on Wall Streethttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-10/why-first-brands-collapse-sparked-concerns-on-wall-streetBloomberg Car Loan Delinquencies Hit Record for Riskiest Borrowershttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-12/car-loan-delinquencies-hit-record-for-riskiest-borrowershttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Fast food chain Wendy's said it's closing hundreds more US locations than previously announced because customers can't afford to eat there. It fits with what McDonalds US President said last week about how the entire industry is fighting for contracting traffic. It sounds practically Chinese talking about oversupply of cheap hamburgers and chicken nuggets. But as we know only too well from China's economy, it isn't too much production it is the lack of demand. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis-------------------------------------------------------------------Get the free guide that breaks down the real economic signals behind America's shrinking consumer demand, and how to protect your wealth before the slowdown hits your income https://web.eurodollar-university.com/home-------------------------------------------------------------------USA Today Wendy's to close roughly 300 stores nationwide starting in late 2025https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/11/07/wendys-closing-hundreds-stores-2025/87146469007/CNBC McDonald's U.S. boss puts focus on ‘value and affordability' as consumer spending splitshttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/mcdonalds-us-boss-memo-value-affordability.htmlBloomberg US Small-Business Optimism Dips to Six-Month Low on Earningshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-11/us-small-business-optimism-slips-to-six-month-low-on-earningsBloomberg US Companies Shed Jobs in Late October, Weekly ADP Data Showhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-11/us-firms-shed-11-250-jobs-per-week-in-four-weeks-to-oct-25-adphttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The federal government may be opening back up but the administration floating a tariff dividend is the real news here. It's yet another dose of reality showing the stock market is not that reality. Americans are struggling and the timing behind this dividend is transparently in response to worsening economic conditions. After all, more Americans say they think unemployment is coming than at any time since 1980.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIn a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That's why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on. If you don't have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University's comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you. Ready to make your week count? Subscribe to One Big Weekly Theme today. You can sample the service or sign up and get started straight away. Visit https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.comPresident Trump Truth Socialhttps://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115514453574326959https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115520395997089111https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115519726463094783NBC Trump floats giving Americans cash for health care and tariff dividendshttps://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-floats-giving-americans-cash-health-care-tariff-dividends-rcna242835Bloomberg Bessent Says Trump's $2,000 ‘Dividend' May Come Via Tax Cutshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-09/bessent-says-trump-s-2-000-dividend-may-come-via-tax-cutshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
CarMax sacked their CEO after preannouncing just brutal results for an industry already reeling and at the epicenter of the current ongoing breakdown in credit markets. The stock plunged 25% Thursday when management disclosed unit sales are looking to crash by 8 to 12% in the latest quarter. Relatedly, consumer confidence plunged to record and near-record lows...and it has little to do with the govt shutdown. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
UBS is reportedly closing down not one but two hedge funds, in a more that raises a lot of questions but also some very uncomfortable parallels to 2007. One of those funds is exposed to First Brands, so understandable. The other...isn't. And that raises the prospect of the R-word; in this case, that does not stand for recession, rather its uglier monetary twin. Bloomberg UBS Winds Down O'Connor Funds in Sign of First Brands Strainhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-06/ubs-to-wind-down-o-connor-funds-with-first-brands-exposureNYT $3.2 Billion Move by Bear Stearns to Rescue Fundhttps://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/23/business/23bond.htmlhttps://eurodollar.university
The most October job cuts in over twenty years. More than October 2008, if you're keeping score. While that doesn't mean this is a repeat of 2008, can we all finally admit this is a really serious situation? And as the flat Beveridge curve emerges more clearly, the rising unemployment it represents is also causing collateral damage, pun intended. The New York Fed said yesterday auto, credit card and student loan delinquencies hit levels, well you'll have to see. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Nov 06 October Challenger Report: 153,074 Job Cuts on Cost-Cutting & AIhttps://www.challengergray.com/blog/october-challenger-report-153074-job-cuts-on-cost-cutting-ai/Revelio Labs Employment — October 2025https://www.reveliolabs.com/public-labor-statistics/employment/Revelio Labs RPLS Reports 60k Jobs Added in September Amid BLS Shutdownhttps://www.reveliolabs.com/news/macro/rpls-september-release/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The dollar is accelerating and not in the direction most people were anticipating, to the point it has rattled the entire cryptocurrency space. That's why cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin just got hit with a major selloff this week as the dollar debasement theme which had driven their latest surge comes up completely empty. More important than that, however, the dollar is accelerating higher which signals quite a lot all its own. But what? You can see how this gets confusing with all this unnatural noise. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWhat is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery—it's a method. If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. Mainstream education has left so many massive gaps on the most foundational concepts, making sense of everything is practically impossible otherwise. With our memberships, we'll fill in everything that you've been missing. https://eurodollar.university/memberships https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Not only is retail giant Target not committing to the big seasonal hiring it always does, the company is actually laying off nearly 2000 of its corporate staff in its biggest management and job shakeup in years. Target is merely the latest “one-off” big name to announce job cuts. No wonder consumer confidence just took another huge hit and that was from the one survey that has held up the best this year. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWhat is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery—it's a method. If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. Mainstream education has left so many massive gaps on the most foundational concepts, making sense of everything is practically impossible otherwise. With our memberships, we'll fill in everything that you've been missing. https://eurodollar.university/memberships Bloomberg A Wave of US Layoffs Flash Early Warning Sign for Job Markethttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-03/the-low-hire-low-fire-us-economy-seems-to-be-overBloomberg Target to Eliminate 1,800 Roles, 8% of Headquarters Teamhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-23/target-to-lay-off-8-of-headquarters-team-cut-1-800-rolesNYT UPS Has Cut 48,000 Workers Since Last Yearhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/business/ups-layoffs-48000-workers-this-year.htmlBloomberg A Slump in Cardboard Box Sales Is Stoking Fears of Lackluster Holiday Shoppinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-03/cardboard-box-sales-slump-signals-weak-holiday-shopping-aheadRCM/TIPP Optimism Index Drops Sharply https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/11/04/rcmtipp_optimism_index_drops_sharply_1145051.htmlhttps://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The cash squeeze in wholesale money markets that we've been following got a whole more exciting on Friday, and now we have the full set of numbers on it. Interest rates soared the most since 2020 further proving the Federal Reserve's program which is supposed to keep this from happening doesn't keep it from happening. Imagine my shock. We also know that there were plenty of spare reserves available, too. And with more borrowing from the Fed again this morning so far, we have to consider the question whether this ongoing and escalating tightness is pointing to something bigger. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The ECB this week held its policy rate right at 2% with policymakers out in force claiming to everyone who might listen they're likely done at that level. Instead, GDP data from all over the continent just came out and showed there's more pringles yet to come from Europe. But there's also one big factor here few people are considering and it has to do with the 2% level itself. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIn a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That's why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on. If you don't have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University's comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you. eurodollaruniversity.substack.comhttps://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
New home sales in China collapsed by 42% in October when compared to last October, representing more than just another setback for the beleaguered Chinese real estate market, the world's largest asset class. This is a major problem for Chinese banks, not that they were expecting different. So, we see interest rates are back to moving lower, setting multi-month lows with the latest short-lived stretch of optimism based on Chinese tech stocks being burst yet again by the reality stocks are not real life. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWhat is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery—it's a method. If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. Mainstream education has left so many massive gaps on the most foundational concepts, making sense of everything is practically impossible otherwise. With our memberships, we'll fill in everything that you've been missing.https://eurodollar.university/memberships Bloomberg PBOC Adviser Leads Call for Fiscal Support to Housing Markethttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-24/pboc-adviser-leads-call-for-fiscal-aid-to-support-housing-markethttps://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The reason why Fed Chair Jay Powell didn't want to commit to a December rate cut is simple. A number of voting members at the FOMC are not convinced the weak labor market is actually all that weak. Sure, the numbers don't look good, but they're wonder if it is real. Well, Chipotle and Kraft-Heinz would like to answer them with a pair of serious warnings about what they're seeing from consumers. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Fed Cuts Rate by Quarter Point, With Dissents on Both Sideshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2025-10-29/fomc-rate-decision-and-fed-chair-news-conferenceBloomberg Chipotle Falls Most Since 2012 After Warning Over Diner Pullbackhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-29/chipotle-cuts-outlook-for-third-time-in-2025-on-weaker-trafficWSJ Kraft Heinz Lowers Full-Year Outlook on Weak Consumption Trendshttps://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/kraft-heinz-khc-q3-earnings-report-stock-2025-a4c6430eYahooFinance Kraft Heinz bearish on outlook amid volume decreases ahead of splithttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/kraft-heinz-bearish-outlook-amid-173322392.htmlConference Board https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/https://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
FOMC will cut rates today but what will officials say, or do, about the growing repo mess? Find out as we react to the Fed's decisions and Powell's press statements. Eurodollar University's Money and Macro Analysis
Amazon announced today it will be cutting 14,000 corporate jobs, though leaker reports say the real number will be roughly 30,000 over time. The company itself says it needs to be more nimble to leverage AI technology when the timing and the target instead shows macroeconomic headwinds are behind the move. There is a reason why consumers believe the US economy is in recession right now. While layoffs like Amazon's remain relatively scarce, unemployment is piling up all over the place and so does the confirmation. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWhat is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery—it's a method. If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. Mainstream education has left so many massive gaps on the most foundational concepts, making sense of everything is practically impossible otherwise. With our memberships, we'll fill in everything that you've been missing. https://eurodollar.university/memberships https://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Another day, another significant borrowing from the Federal Reserve's repo facility. This has become a regular occurrence and concurrent with a rise in money market rates due to the cash squeeze I told you about yesterday, there's a lot of similarities to 2019 and it's got the Fed on track to not just cut rates this week also possibly terminate the balance sheet runoff – even if Steve doesn't quite agree.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The ongoing cash squeeze in money markets is very likely to bring an end to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet runoff, known as QT. When the FOMC meets this coming week, officials are almost certainly going to cut rates given the perilous situation in labor. But with financial firms still using the Fed's repo facility and especially as benchmark money rates stay elevated, the second item on the list of decisions is going to be ending QT. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIn a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That's why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on. If you don't have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University's comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you. Visit https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com to sample the service or sign up and get started straight away. https://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The dollar is making another big move higher to the point it is causing governments and central banks around the world to respond and even intervene to keep their own currencies from crashing against it. Fears over the global economic downturn are driving monetary tightness and demand for safety at the expense of those at the forefront of the broad decline. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Currency Officials Go on Offensive as Trade Angst in Asia Mountshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-16/currency-officials-go-on-offensive-as-trade-angst-in-asia-mountsBloomberg South Korea Says Watching One-Sided Won Volatility in Rare Movehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-13/south-korea-says-watching-one-sided-won-volatility-in-rare-moveBloomberg Swiss Franc's Haven Run Seen Nearing SNB Intervention Thresholdhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-24/swiss-franc-s-haven-run-seen-nearing-snb-intervention-thresholdhttps://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
We have a couple more names to add to our fast-growing list of shadow banking casualties. And, yes, collateral is once again the common theme. One of them is of course in subprime auto financing, but that's just another canary in the credit coalmine. The other has been accused of fabricating half a billion of collateral invoices. Half a billion. Fake collateral.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WSJ Bankrupt Telecom Business Accused of Fraud in Receivables Financinghttps://www.wsj.com/articles/bankrupt-telecom-business-accused-of-fraud-in-receivables-financing-0370b4fdBloombergLaw Factoring-Firm Affiliate Files Chapter 11; Up to $1B Liabilitieshttps://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/factoring-firm-affiliate-files-chapter-11-up-to-1b-liabilitiesFreightWaves Factoring companies squeezed by slowing shipper payments: Alsobrookshttps://www.freightwaves.com/news/factoring-companies-squeezed-by-slowing-shipper-payments-alsobrooksBloomberg BOE's Bailey Warns ‘Alarm Bells' Ringing in Private Credithttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-21/boe-s-bailey-warns-of-financial-crisis-echoes-in-private-credithttps://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
After a truly epic run, precious metals are now getting pounded. Both gold and silver are down the past few days for a couple of reasons, not that this is a surprise. In fact, I told you just six days ago this was the most likely short run path for the metals. So, what's driving the selloff and does it change the long run outlook for either? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
There was action yet again at the Fed's repo window today. A few more billion borrowed. But that's now the fourth time over the last five trading days. These are more signs of tightening monetary conditions and if this does continue it will lead to the next QE from the Fed. The word that keeps coming up the past few months is escalation. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Why is copper-to-gold so ugly and thoroughly deflationary? What's happening right now inside China is one key part of it. After a small artificial rebound earlier this - where have we heard that before - Chinese bank lending has fallen even more sharply this summer adding yet another layer to the tremendous deceleration we keep seeing across China this summer. Retail sales fell yet again and investment is crashing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIn a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That's why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on. If you don't have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University's comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you. Ready to make your week count? Subscribe to One Big Weekly Theme today. You can sample the service or sign up and get started straight away. https//:eurodollaruniversity.substack.comCNN China expels two top generals from Communist Party in anti-corruption crackdownhttps://www.cnn.com/2025/10/17/china/china-communist-party-expels-military-leaders-intl-hnkBloomberg China's Lopsided Growth Puts Spotlight on Xi's Five-Year Planhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-20/chinese-economic-slowdown-worsens-with-growth-weakest-in-a-yearhttps://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Even I am surprised at how quickly this has escalated. We got a big-time warning from the oil market earlier in the week. Whenever we see these things show up, usually there's a little back and forth, in and out, the thing starts out as a little blip and stays that way for awhile. Then, maybe, you get a bigger move much later on. Not this time. The oil curve blew way past all of that in just a few days.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Two US regional banks rocked the markets with more potential loan losses tied to private credit and shadow banks. But it is NOT really about them or the scale of those defaults; they are relatively tiny. It's what continues to be uncovered, the common COLLATERAL thread in every single one so far. Combined with a very precarious macroeconomic and monetary background, it's explosive. They are encompassed by the secrets behind the financial and monetary signals we continue to highlight and expose here at EDU. Watch our most recent webinar replay to start seeing the truth hiding in plain sight - and just in time, in case you haven't noticed. Stick around to the end for the best deal we've offered on Eurodollar University's full control room of subscriptions. https://youtube.com/live/vnuKXWiIVac?feature=sharehttps://eurodollar.university/webinar-offerCODE: 2025-OCT-WEBINAR-DDA3--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Silver has gone absolutely vertical, even more than gold has. There is an historic squeeze going on in the silver market, centered in London. It started out driven by gold but the whole thing has been upended by imbalances in supply and the locations from where demand is coming from. How far can silver go? What's really going on with it? And what should we expect next? Why does the matter for a whole lot more than the precious metals market? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis--------------------------------------------------------------------------------The secrets behind these and other financial and monetary signals. Watch our most recent webinar replay to start seeing the truth hiding in plain sight - and just in time, in case you haven't noticed. Stick around to the end for the best deal we've offered on Eurodollar University's full control room of subscriptions. https://youtube.com/live/vnuKXWiIVac?feature=share--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Silver Traders Rush Bars to London as Historic Squeeze Rocks Markethttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-11/silver-squeeze-evokes-hunt-brothers-as-banks-rush-bars-to-londonBloomberg Kotak Silver Fund Halts New Investments as Premium Widenshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-09/india-s-kotak-silver-fund-halts-new-investments-as-premium-growshttps://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
With one quote, JP Morgan's CEO Jamie Dimon created a mini-firestorm even if in this case, anyway, he was just saying what everyone is thinking. On JPMs earnings call yesterday, Dimon reportedly said, “I probably shouldn't say this but when you see one cockroach there are probably more” in relation to the bankruptcies that have popped up recently. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Powell Signals Another Cut as Weak Hiring Pressures Unemploymenthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-14/powell-signals-another-cut-as-weak-hiring-pressures-unemploymentBloomberg Private Credit Investors Sour on Funds as Rate Cuts Hurt Payoutshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-09/private-credit-investors-sour-on-funds-as-rate-cuts-hurt-payoutsBloomberg Blue Owl Chief Points to Bank Loans for Dimon Cockroach Warninghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-15/blue-owl-chief-says-look-to-banks-loans-for-dimon-s-cockroacheshttps://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
A big signal we - and the whole market - have been waiting for was triggered. Better still, there is no ambiguity with this one. The oil curve has flipped for the first time in years in what is a very clear downturn signal. They call it a supply glut when there is no mistaking it's all about demand.
It's not just the $2.3 billion that allegedly simply vanished; it's how and maybe most important of all, why. Second guessing collateral this way does not end well. Especially since this does not appear to be a one-off case of embezzlement and outright theft, rather a relatively large company which made some bad choices pressured into doing so by the economy and given the opportunity by less than ideal protections and security. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------This is all exactly why Eurodollar University is holding a webinar on Tuesday October 14, at 6pm ET. To help you begin to unlearn the garbage that Economics has taught you and the financial media keeps repeating day after day after day. We're going to dive into the hidden story, really the hidden truth of interest rates to uncover the wealth of information they contain which is otherwise inaccessible to you and everyone else thanks to Economics and central banks. https://webinar.eurodollar-university.com/home---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Reuters First Brands' creditor says $2.3 billion 'simply vanished', seeks probehttps://www.reuters.com/world/us/first-brands-creditor-says-23-billion-simply-vanished-seeks-probe-2025-10-09/Bloomberg Aegon's Junk Debt Chief Braces for Credit Pain as Cracks Spreadhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-09/aegon-s-junk-debt-chief-braces-for-credit-pain-as-cracks-spreadBloomberg Corporate Blowups Are Rattling Investors in Emerging Marketshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-12/corporate-blowups-are-rattling-investors-in-emerging-marketsUnited Capitalhttps://ucfunding.com/Triumph https://triumph.io/Onset Financialhttps://www.onsetfinancial.com/case-studies/aircraft-parts-supplier-50mhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Crytpo saw its biggest liquidations in history Friday when Trade Wars 2.2 flared up. Commodities were also pounded, bonds bigtime bid, even stocks sent significantly lower. Tariffs aren't really the issue here, either, as a confluence of negatives have been sapping sentiment for the past few weeks.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisThis is all exactly why Eurodollar University is holding a webinar on Tuesday October 14, at 6pm ET. To help you begin to unlearn the garbage that Economics has taught you and the financial media keeps repeating day after day after day. We're going to dive into the hidden story, really the hidden truth of interest rates to uncover the wealth of information they contain which is otherwise inaccessible to you and everyone else thanks to Economics and central banks. https://webinar.eurodollar-university.com/home---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The growing macro bust in housing has become serious enough even the Fed is letting the public know officials are talking about it. I keep telling you that when central bankers see it too, you know it isn't good. The Federal Reserve's policymaking body, the FOMC, released the minutes of its meeting last month, the one where policymakers decided to dip back into the Pringles can with a single twenty five-bp rate cut. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisThis is all exactly why Eurodollar University is holding a webinar on Tuesday October 14, at 6pm ET. To help you begin to unlearn the garbage that Economics has taught you and the financial media keeps repeating day after day after day. We're going to dive into the hidden story, really the hidden truth of interest rates to uncover the wealth of information they contain which is otherwise inaccessible to you and everyone else thanks to Economics and central banks. https://webinar.eurodollar-university.com/home---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery—it's a method. If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. eurodollar.university/memberships---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Germany's auto production absolutely crashed, falling by almost 20% in just a single month. This becomes the latest stark warning about the direction of the global economy coming from the car business. And that report on production was corroborated by Mercedes, BMW, Porsche, Ferrari, all of them reporting results and forecasts this week that have sent their stocks plunging. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------This is all exactly why Eurodollar University is holding a webinar on Tuesday October 14, at 6pm ET. To help you begin to unlearn the garbage that Economics has taught you and the financial media keeps repeating day after day after day. We're going to dive into the hidden story, really the hidden truth of interest rates to uncover the wealth of information they contain which is otherwise inaccessible to you and everyone else thanks to Economics and central banks. https://webinar.eurodollar-university.com/home---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg German Industrial Slump Deepens on Auto Production Plungehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-08/german-industrial-slump-deepens-with-shutdown-in-auto-productionBloomberg German Exports Unexpectedly Drop as Shipments to the US Sinkhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-09/german-exports-unexpectedly-drop-as-shipments-to-the-us-sinkDPA Germany's Mercedes-Benz sees sales plunge 12% in third quarterhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/germanys-mercedes-benz-sees-sales-131348096.htmlBloomberg Porsche's Sinking Sales Deepen German Automotive Malaisehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-09/porsche-s-sinking-sales-deepen-german-automotive-malaiseBloomberg BMW Drops After Forecast Cut on China Slump, Tariff Costshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-07/bmw-lowers-annual-guidance-on-weak-china-sales-tariff-costsBMWblog BMW Admits Tariffs And Sales Slump In China Are Hurting Profitshttps://www.bmwblog.com/2025/10/07/bmw-admits-tariffs-sales-slump-china-hurting-profits/Dow Jones Ferrari Shares Plunge as Long-Term Targets Disappoint — Updatehttps://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202510094181/ferrari-shares-plunge-as-long-term-targets-disappoint-updatehttps://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Another major central bank panicked today into a 50 bps rate cut, just as markets have been predicting. Not only that, officials at that bank said they're ready for more as ultra-low rates are back within reach already. The Pringles can is far from empty even though central banks around the world would like you to believe they are in a good place. On the contrary, rate cuts really are like pringles – once central bankers start they're finding everywhere they can't stop. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisThis is all exactly why Eurodollar University is holding a webinar on Tuesday October 14, at 6pm ET. To help you begin to unlearn the garbage that Economics has taught you and the financial media keeps repeating day after day after day. We're going to dive into the hidden story, really the hidden truth of interest rates to uncover the wealth of information they contain which is otherwise inaccessible to you and everyone else thanks to Economics and central banks. https://webinar.eurodollar-university.com/home---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------In a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That's why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on. If you don't have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University's comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you. https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Repo fails have jumped to more than $320 billion as of the final full week in September, the highest since the very start of January. More importantly, the timing. While there are technical reasons for rising fails, they have been increasing since the first week in August, right when the July payroll report came out. There's also been substantial selling of foreign reserve assets, an enormous amount which likewise is timed to the release of payroll estimates. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------This is all exactly why Eurodollar University is holding a webinar on Tuesday October 14, at 6pm ET. To help you begin to unlearn the garbage that Economics has taught you and the financial media keeps repeating day after day after day. We're going to dive into the hidden story, really the hidden truth of interest rates to uncover the wealth of information they contain which is otherwise inaccessible to you and everyone else thanks to Economics and central banks. https://webinar.eurodollar-university.com/home---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery—it's a method. If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. Mainstream education has left so many massive gaps on the most foundational concepts, making sense of everything is practically impossible otherwise. With our memberships, we'll fill in everything that you've been missing. https://eurodollar.university/memberships---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
OPEC this past weekend agreed to raise production into a falling market, putting it on the edge of confirming a major worldwide downturn. This is why, despite the crude cartel not increasing supply as much as feared, oil prices didn't really react. There are far greater problems plaguing the energy markets, including tightening dollar conditions which go right along with this major market warning. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------This is all exactly why Eurodollar University is holding a webinar on Tuesday October 14, at 6pm ET. To help you begin to unlearn the garbage that Economics has taught you and the financial media keeps repeating day after day after day. We're going to dive into the hidden story, really the hidden truth of interest rates to uncover the wealth of information they contain which is otherwise inaccessible to you and everyone else thanks to Economics and central banks. https://webinar.eurodollar-university.com/home---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------CNBC Oil rises more than 1% after OPEC+ hikes output less than expectedhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/06/oil-prices-gain-1percent-after-lower-than-expected-opec-output-hike.htmlBloomberg The Oil Market's 2026 Tsunami Will Be Costly to Financehttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-06/the-oil-market-s-2026-tsunami-will-be-costly-to-financeBloomberg Unsold Oil From Middle East Hints at Early Signs of Global Gluthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-02/unsold-oil-from-middle-east-hints-at-early-signs-of-global-gluthttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
These recent bankruptcies have garnered close attention from the marketplace because they represent the very real possibility serious cracks have already weakened credit markets...to the point even the stock market (part of it, anyway) is taking a hard look. Ally, Bread Financial, Affirm, even Capital One, they've all see their stocks plummet. There's more here than it seems because of all the noise about share indexes and their own record highs. Everyone has ignored job losses, until now that is. Eurodollar University conversation w/Steve Van Metre----------------------------------------------------------------This is all exactly why Eurodollar University is holding a webinar on Tuesday October 14, at 6pm ET. To help you begin to unlearn the garbage that Economics has taught you and the financial media keeps repeating day after day after day. We're going to dive into the hidden story, really the hidden truth of interest rates to uncover the wealth of information they contain which is otherwise inaccessible to you and everyone else thanks to Economics and central banks. https://webinar.eurodollar-university.com/home----------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Subprime Credit Troubles Send Shares of Consumer Lenders Reelinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-03/subprime-credit-troubles-send-shares-of-consumer-lenders-reelinghttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Like Amazon, now Walmart and Target are holding similar “fall” savings events promising to offer big savings. All three of them know the consumer economy is in deep trouble, thus the overemphasis on savings. But it's not just what these retailers are doing for customers, it's what they aren't doing for workers. According to a range of sources, including the retailers themselves, they are not hiring. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFor more information on 21shares and to sign up for their newsletter, visit https://bit.ly/3JTI4GQSubscribe @21Shares on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@21sharesFollow @21Shares on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/21shares_/Follow @21Shares on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/21shares-us/Follow @21Shares on X: https://x.com/21Shares_US----------------------------------------------------------------Sign up for our webinar on the Hidden Truth Behind Interest Rates:https://webinar.eurodollar-university.com/home----------------------------------------------------------------Challenger Gray & Christmas https://www.challengergray.com/blog/september-job-cuts-fall-37-from-august-ytd-total-highest-since-2020-lowest-ytd-hiring-since-2009/Retail Dive How retailers are hiring for the 2025 holiday seasonhttps://www.retaildive.com/news/retail-holiday-season-hiring-job-cuts/760900/ISM Services September 2025https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/services/september/FRBNY Business Leaders Surveyhttps://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/Survey/business_leaders/2025/2025_09blsreport.pdf?sc_lang=en&hash=872CB84D638D0F3D1A3F833365E25EF4Dallas Fed Texas Services Outlook Surveyhttps://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tssos/2025/2509
Money from around the world continues to pour into Swiss bond markets, driving yields there down below zero and keeping them that way. Because Switzerland remains a key global money center in the eurodollar world, this kind of heightened demand for safety is directly related to rising worries about the rest of the world. Moreover, the Swiss curve is an indication of what we should expect from global rates moving forward.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Sign up for our webinar on the Hidden Truth Behind Interest Rates:https://webinar.eurodollar-university.com/home---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
This week has seen one oil company after another announce major layoffs. The oil curve is within sight of flipping and wholesale gasoline prices are only a penny above their lowest since 2021. Why? The answer was all over ADP's private payroll report for September. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFor more information on 21shares and to sign up for their newsletter, visit https://bit.ly/3JTI4GQSubscribe @21Shares on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@21sharesFollow @21Shares on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/21shares_/Follow @21Shares on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/21shares-us/Follow @21Shares on X: https://x.com/21Shares_US----------------------------------------------------------------Sign up for our webinar on the Hidden Truth Behind Interest Rates:https://webinar.eurodollar-university.com/home----------------------------------------------------------------ADP https://adpemploymentreport.com/IEA Oil Market Report August 2025https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-august-2025HRD Imperial Oil, ExxonMobil announce major layoffs for Canada amid global restructuringhttps://www.hcamag.com/ca/news/general/imperial-oil-exxonmobil-announce-major-layoffs-for-canada-amid-global-restructuring/551612Dow Jones TotalEnergies to Cut Costs While Boosting Oil, Gas Output Through 2030 — Updatehttps://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202509296462/totalenergies-to-cut-costs-while-boosting-oil-gas-output-through-2030-updateFox Business Exxon to slash thousands of jobshttps://www.foxbusiness.com/media/exxon-slash-thousands-jobs-major-corporate-overhaul-comprehensive-restructuring-planhttps://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUDisclaimerThis video is sponsored by 21Shares. The information provided in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Products mentioned may not be available in all jurisdictions, and their suitability will depend on your individual circumstances. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
The latest report on jobs changes everything. The hiring rate in August dropped to its lowest level since April of 2020. April 2020. It's another clear sign that the labor market is visiting Dr. Beveridge and right in time for Amazon Prime Days which begin a week from now. Consumer confidence fell sharply here for September in even more new data, with workers reporting they also feel job availability is at a multi-year low, so it's not just in the high level data, this thing is also making waves on the ground. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------It is absolutely critical to understand the hidden truth or really truths about what interest rates are saying. Decoding them isn't really that difficult, either, once you step away from mainstream Economics. And that's what we're going to do on Tuesday October 14 at 6 pm ET. Join me for a full webinar as we break down these secrets to interest rates that really shouldn't be.Sign up for our webinar on the Hidden Truth Behind Interest Rates:https://webinar.eurodollar-university.com/home---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery—it's a method.If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. https://eurodollar.university/memberships ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Conference Board https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/https://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
What is going on in the auto world? First, Tricolor goes bankrupt. Then parts supplier First Brands follows them. CarMax reports dismal earnings. Even Germany's Bosch decided to lay off another 13,000 workers. It's not just a canary in the coal mine, there's a whole flock - or fleet - of them. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Sign up for our webinar on the Hidden Truth Behind Interest Rates:https://webinar.eurodollar-university.com/home---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------CarMax Second Quarter Earningshttps://investors.carmax.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2025/CarMax-Reports-Second-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2026-Results/default.aspxCNBC CarMax stock plummets 20% following ‘challenging' quarterhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/25/carmax-stock-plummets-after-missed-wall-streets-expectations.htmlMarketWatch CarMax sees surprise drop in used-car sales even at lower prices, and the stock diveshttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/carmax-sees-unexpected-drop-in-used-car-sales-even-at-lower-prices-and-the-stock-dives-7dc067b0Bloomberg Economists Lower US Job Growth Through 2026, Fueling Rate Cutshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-26/economists-lower-us-job-growth-through-2026-fueling-rate-cutsGTR First Brands supply chain finance debt tops US$866mnhttps://www.gtreview.com/news/americas/first-brands-supply-chain-finance-debt-tops-us866mn/Bloomberg First Brands Files for Bankruptcy After Lender Scrutinyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-29/auto-parts-supplier-first-brands-files-for-bankruptcyQ3 2025 Cox Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index Shows Steady Confidence Amid Economic Headwindshttps://www.coxautoinc.com/insights-hub/q3-2025-cadsi/Bloomberg Bosch to Shed 13,000 Jobs as Auto-Industry Slump Deepenshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-25/bosch-to-shed-another-13-000-jobs-as-auto-industry-slump-deepenshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Companies are throwing trillions of dollars chasing the latest fad at the worst possible time. Even hedge fund insiders are sounding alarms over the collision between macro reverse and bubble building mania. Bigger than the dot-coms. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre----------------------------------------------------------------Sign up for our webinar on the Hidden Truth Behind Interest Rates:https://webinar.eurodollar-university.com/home----------------------------------------------------------------In a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That's why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on.If you don't have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University's comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you. https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com----------------------------------------------------------------https://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
For more information on 21shares and to sign up for their newsletter, visit https://bit.ly/3JTI4GQSubscribe @21Shares on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@21sharesFollow @21Shares on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/21shares_/Follow @21Shares on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/21shares-us/Follow @21Shares on X: https://x.com/21Shares_US----------------------------------------------------------------Sign up for our webinar on the Hidden Truth Behind Interest Rates:https://webinar.eurodollar-university.com/home----------------------------------------------------------------Everyone has been abuzz about Tricolor's bankruptcy. The subprime auto lender has already created hundreds of millions in losses and for some of the biggest banks. But the real story here isn't those hundreds of millions, rather the trillions in debt that is priced on financial variable that's otherwise impossible to pin down. Tricolor's bankruptcy just might shed some light on it. Will the financial world like what it could find?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFifth Bank 8-Khttps://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0000035527/000003552725000185/fitb-20250905.htmBloomberg Tricolor Trustee Targets 100,000 Auto Loans Stuck in Limbohttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-18/tricolor-trustee-seeks-control-over-100-000-subprime-auto-loansWired Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Streethttps://www.wired.com/2009/02/wp-quant/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUDisclaimerThis video is sponsored by 21Shares. The information provided in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Products mentioned may not be available in all jurisdictions, and their suitability will depend on your individual circumstances. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The dollar is starting to move more aggressively, driving higher and crossing key thresholds in a whole host of currency exchanges. Not only that, this current “strengthening” is highly synchronized. Both of those factors, the synchronization and breaching multiple ranges, are beginning to more strongly point to the next stage in this ongoing cycle. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Sign up for our webinar on the Hidden Truth Behind Interest Rates:https://event.webinarjam.com/register/30/vpxv1tvg---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU