Podcasts about NAIRU

In this episode, Stanford Brown CEO Vincent O'Neill speaks with Chief Investment Officer Nick Ryder to discuss:   Domestic GDP numbers showing weak economic growth. Rising unemployment, NAIRU and the interest rate outlook. The rise of Far-Right parties in European elections. How national sovereignty is driving demand for NVIDIA's AI chips.     Music provided by: Autumn Trumpet Background Corporate by LesFM | https://lesfm.net/ Music promoted by https://www.chosic.com/free-music/all/ Creative Commons CC BY 3.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

Peter Williams is a managing director of macroeconomic research at 22V Research and was formerly at the IMF and the World Bank. Peter joins David on Macro Musings to provide a market perspective on interest rates, Treasury markets, and monetary policy. Specifically, David and Peter discuss the dos and don'ts of estimating term premiums, the importance and future of R-star, the usefulness of inflation expectations, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week's episode.   Peter's LinkedIn profile Peter's 22V bio   David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium* by Emanuel Kopp and Peter Williams   *Reading the Stars* by Peter Williams, Yasser Abdih, and Emanuel Kopp   *Inflation Expectations in the U.S.: Linking Markets, Households, and Businesses* by Peter Williams

The People's Bank of China is expected to ease a key bank lending rule in the coming months after China reported falling back into deflation last month. In part one of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ's Head of Economics for Australia Adam Boyton explains what the NAIRU is and why it's important for interest rates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

When economist Pavlina Tcherneva was last on this podcast, we were a few months into the pandemic. She and Steve talked about nationalizing payroll and the heightened need for a federal job guarantee during a time of crisis.In this episode, the neoliberal approach to unemployment comes under scrutiny. Pavlina explains the inadequacy of official unemployment data. She looks at the problem from several angles, including geography, demographics, and of course, economics.Pavlina and Steve discuss MMT, the politics of NAIRU, and the debt ceiling. They look at a job guarantee as an automatic stabilizer, similar to entitlements like social security and unemployment insurance, possibly shielding it from shifting political tides.Pavlina tells Steve about her collaboration with the Democratizing Work Initiative, a group of academics who are organizing around the principles of democratizing work, decommodifying labor, and decarbonizing the planet.Pavlina Tcherneva is an Associate Professor of Economics at Bard College, the Director of OSUN's Economic Democracy Initiative, and a Research Scholar at the Levy Economics Institute, NY.  She specializes in modern money and public policy. Find her work at pavlina-tcherneva.net@ptcherneva on Twitter

Stories or analysis about the economy can sometimes seem like a word soup of jargon. That's why this episode we're taking 11 common (and some not-so-common) economic terms and defining them in plain English. From quantitative tightening to stagflation to GDP, Scotiabank Economist Laura Gu returns to help bolster our vocabulary.  Looking for another vocabulary expanding economic primer? Check out our Inflation 101 episode.    Key moments this episode:  1:36 — Term 1: GDP  3:00 — Term 2 and 3: Monetary policy vs fiscal policy  4:33 — Term 4: Output gap  6:33 — Term 5: Quantitative tightening  9:21 — Term 6: Stagflation  12:05 — The lighting round and term 7: Core inflation  12:19 — Term 8: Terminal rate  12:32 — A curveball!  12:40 — Term 9: Basis point  12:56 — Term 10: Hyperinflation  13:30 — Term 11: NAIRU  13:57 — We reveal Laura's extremely valuable and high-tech prize 

Mickey admits he was wrong about the 10-year-old abortion story ... The Atlantic's conveniently timed story about MBS's widow ... Is Biden doing MBS a favor by investigating the PGA? ... Mickey: Democrats are still overperforming in midterm polls ... January 6 hearings update ... Working with, or around, Joe Manchin ... Has Elon Musk actually thought through free speech on Twitter? ... Ukraine war update ... Mickey: The Peter Thiel candidates will decide the fate of the Senate ... Parrot Room preview: Bob's Atlantic conspiracy theory revealed, the British Open and LIV, Starbucks store closings, Biden and military force in Iran, NAIRU news, the Hunter Biden cloud leak, the value of the Iraq war, sucking up to Saudi Arabia, Bob complains about a terrible WaPo headline, the annoyances of “agency,” Jill Biden's breakfast taco faux pas, and fertilizer in Sri Lanka ...

Mickey admits he was wrong about the 10-year-old abortion story ... The Atlantic's conveniently timed story about MBS's widow ... Is Biden doing MBS a favor by investigating the PGA? ... Mickey: Democrats are still overperforming in midterm polls ... January 6 hearings update ... Working with, or around, Joe Manchin ... Has Elon Musk actually thought through free speech on Twitter? ... Ukraine war update ... Mickey: The Peter Thiel candidates will decide the fate of the Senate ... Parrot Room preview: Bob's Atlantic conspiracy theory revealed, the British Open and LIV, Starbucks store closings, Biden and military force in Iran, NAIRU news, the Hunter Biden cloud leak, the value of the Iraq war, sucking up to Saudi Arabia, Bob complains about a terrible WaPo headline, the annoyances of “agency,” Jill Biden's breakfast taco faux pas, and fertilizer in Sri Lanka ...

Wages growth is off the pandemic floor but remains historically weak. How low can unemployment go in Australia before we start to see inflationary pressures? Plus, we look at the potential eocnomic impact of war in Ukraine.

"In Italia le dimissioni si chiedono, non si danno" L'abrasivo aforisma di Roberto Gervaso era evidentemente riferito alla sfera della politica e del Potere in genere, non al mondo del lavoro, ma chissà quale caustico commento formulerebbe oggi Gervaso davanti all'ultima “moda” importata dagli USA. Ebbene sì, ora nel mercato del lavoro gli abbandoni volontari cominciano a fioccare, seppur certo non con il ritmo, invero impressionante, che il fenomeno fa registrare Oltreoceano. Al #mancalaroba, sul quale vi abbiamo intrattenuti a più riprese nelle ultime settimane, si aggiunge dunque il #mancalagente. Mentre i complottisti novax e i negazionisti del Covid, al seguito di pifferai magici travestiti da intellettuali e monsignori, si baloccano con lisergici scenari sul genere Gran Reset, nel mondo reale, quello nel quale gli Usa conservano ancora una straordinaria energia anticipatrice di trend e fenomeni, va in scena la Great Resignation: il fenomeno delle dimissioni di massa, milioni di lavoratori che lasciano volontariamente il posto di lavoro. Alcuni per spuntare retribuzioni maggiori altrove, altri per reinventarsi professionalmente, e con ciò ridisegnare anche la propria relazione con la sfera lavorativa, altri per abbandonare tout court il perimetro del mondo del lavoro.E' una storia di massicci sussidi alla disoccupazione mediante i quali il Big Government , dal quale metteva in guardia una recentissima copertina dell' Economist, si è di fatto per mesi sostituito ai datori di lavoro, ma è anche una storia che va oltre l'aspetto meramente pecuniario, investendo profili più profondi, incisive modifiche che la pandemia ha impresso alla scala valoriale di molti individui: bisogno di superare la dimensione totalizzante del lavoro, suggestione di trasformare hobby o passioni in mestieri, meno assorbenti e talora del tutto inediti. In ogni caso, un fenomeno troppo imponente e rivelatore perché qui ad Economia Per Tutti, dove parecchi mesi fa ne raccontammo le prime avvisaglie a stelle e strisce, lo si possa ignorare. La conversazione inclinata tra Milano e Manchester di questa settimana è dedicata a tentare di capire come e perché #mancalagente Come sempre, poi, è anche una storia di teorie economiche che si scontrano con la realtà e, più di tutto, con il “fattore umano”, il comportamento concreto degli attori fondamentali dell'economia: le persone. Del resto, come sapete, ci piace in ogni chiacchierata sminuzzare, alla maniera nostra, qualche pillola della “scienza triste” con l'ambizione di mostrare come possa, al contrario, risultare intrigante. Questa volta è il turno della “Curva di Phillips”, con la quale negli anni Cinquanta ci si illuse di aver immutabilmente incardinato in una relazione inversa tasso di inflazione e tasso di disoccupazione, e dell'indice Nairu (non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) con il quale la Federal Reserve cercò, con faticosi e controversi risultati empirici, di ricostruire una cornice entro la quale spiegare il rapporto inflazione/disoccupazione dopo che la stagflazione degli anni '70 aveva traumaticamente dimostrato che, in barba alla suddetta Curva, potevano ben coesistere, con pessimi effetti, inflazione alta e altrettanto alta disoccupazione. Se volete prendervi un break dal vostro lavoro, anche senza necessariamente dimettervi, per ascoltare questa storia o se anche siete alla ricerca di argomenti invincibili per strappare un aumento di stipendio, vi aspettiamo sulla vostra piattaforma preferita. web: http://www.PianoInclinato.it email: redazione@pianoinclinato.it Newsletter di Economia per tutti: https://tinyletter.com/PianoInclinato Sottofondo musicale e sigla by Kevin MacLeod https://incompetech.filmmusic.io/song/4450-sweeter-vermouth License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Cosa leggere: https://linktr.ee/economia.a.polpette

Thursday 4th February 2021 New Zealand’s labour force data yesterday showed a strong fall in unemployment, possibly down to NAIRU levels. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether this means inflation could soon emerge and does this mean the RBNZ is the first central bank to seriously think about a post-pandemic rate rise? It’s a very different story in Australia, with Philip Lowe yesterday reinforcing the dovish tone set by the RBA on Tuesday. Strong US data and reflation expectations have pushed oil to the highest level since the pandemic began, even as US reserves fell less than expected. And Mario Draghi is back on the scene. He has accepted an invitation to form government in Italy and there’s been a sharp reaction in local equities and bonds.

Have you ever been unemployed, but wanted work? Know anyone looking for work and unable to find a job? You might think that's due to the pandemic, or some other misfortune. In fact, involuntarily unemployed are victims of the NAIRU: the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment. Or is that the non-existent accelerating inflation rate of unemployment? With Dr. Victor Quirk leading the way, Anne & Kev are emboldened to face the invisible horror that is the NAIRU.

Economics Explored host Gene Tunny discusses the natural rate of unemployment and the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, the NAIRU. He considers whether they're the same thing, why they are important, and what affects them. Links relevant to the episode include:Milton Friedman's 1967-68 AEA Presidential Address on the role of monetary policyKansas City Fed paper on a new estimate of the natural rate of unemploymentRBA paper on Estimating the NAIRU and the Unemployment GapBrookings post on What is u*?Carl E. Walsh on The Natural Rate, NAIRU, and Monetary Policy 

The US Federal reserve this week indicated that interest rates will remain close to zero through till 2023, at the earliest. Why because inflation is subdued and they don’t expect it to pick up until employment returns to normal. But what’s normal? Central banks work on the principle of NAIRU - the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment – but they never seem to be able top in down exactly what that rate is. Before the pandemic US unemployment was down to 3.5 percent, with no sign of inflation lifting. Phil Dobbie asks Prof Steve Keen whether the idea of a fixed NAIRU rate just plain wrong? To hear the full version subscribe by picking a plan in the right column of the Debunking Economics website (not the mobile app). Or become a supporter at https://www.patreon.com/ProfSteveKeen

Macro Musings is back with another bonus episode, as Sam Bell and Skanda Amarnath (Employ America) are joined by Julia Coronado (Macro Policy Perspectives) and David Beckworth (Macro Musings) to talk through the announcement of the Fed’s framework transition towards average inflation targeting. Specifically, this panel of guests discuss the implications of moving to an average inflation targeting regime, whether the shift may cause credibility problems for the central bank, how to continue to improve the Fed’s toolkit, and more.   Special thanks to the Employ America team for allowing us to use their webcast audio for this special Macro Musings bonus content.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Employ America’s Twitter: @employamerica Employ America’s website: https://employamerica.org/ Sam Bell’s Twitter: @sam_a_bell Skanda Amarnath’s Twitter: @IrvingSwisher   Julia’s Twitter: @jc_econ Julia’s Macro Policy Perspectives profile: https://www.macropolicyperspectives.com/team   Related Links:   *A New Way to Manage Inflation* by David Beckworth https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/new-way-manage-inflation   *By Doubling Down On Inflation Targeting, the Fed Is At Risk of Forgetting Lessons from 2008 & 2011* by Skanda Amarnath https://medium.com/@skanda_97974/by-doubling-down-on-inflation-targeting-the-fed-is-at-risk-of-forgetting-lessons-from-2008-2011-f877f78acba2   *Securing Macroeconomic and Monetary Stability with a Federal Reserve–Backed Digital Currency* by Julia Coronado and Simon Potter https://www.piie.com/system/files/documents/pb20-4.pdf   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Chris Crowe is head of economic research at Capula Investment Management, a London-based hedge fund, where he covers global economics, primarily the G10 countries plus China. Chris was previously UK economist at Barclays and prior to that he worked at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He joins the show today to give us the perspective of a macroeconomist from inside a hedge fund on markets, Brexit, and other current events as well as some of his own research. David and Chris also discuss central bank independence, the overall economic impacts of Brexit, and the implications of Jay Powell’s testimony at the Humphrey Hawkins.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/08192019/chris-crowe-hedge-fund-perspectives-and-economic-implications-brexit   Related Links:   *Safe Asset Supply Failing to Meet Demand, Economist Crowe Says* by Frank Fuhrig https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/safe-asset-supply-failing-meet-demand-economist-crowe-says   *The International Impact of the Fed When the United states is a Banker to the World* by David Beckworth and Christopher Crowe https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/rulesforinternationalmonetarystability-ch2.pdf   *Central Bank Independence and Transparency: Evolution and Effectiveness* by Christopher Crowe and Ellen Meade https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2008/wp08119.pdf   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Thursday 13th June 2019 President Trump has refocused his attention on Europe, threatening sanctions if Germany pushes ahead with the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia. As NAB’s Gavin Friend explains, the news had an immediate impact on the Euro, which had been trading relatively flat. Phil Dobbie asks him why, despite investor expectations the ECB continues to avoid talk of rate cuts. It’s a different story in the US, with the Fed likely to be the next central bank to move, reinforced by slightly weaker CPI figures overnight. They also discuss rate cuts at the RBA, with the banks latest estimate of NAIRU (the unemployment rate at which wage rises kick in) at 4.5%, possibly lower. And a move to block no-deal in the UK parliament was defeated, but don’t assume that means a no-deal Brexit is any more likely. There’s more can kicking to come.

Back by popular demand! Ellis Winningham, MMT guru and educator with acerbic wit and acute intellect, joins Steve to dissect the federal job guarantee. Together they set the record straight on the myths and realities of the UBI then go on to explain how and why the federal job guarantee is more than mere policy. It is both a price anchor and economic stabilizer, making it an intrinsic component at the core of Modern Monetary Theory.   Confused about NAIRU versus NAIBER? Don’t know the difference between a pool of unemployed labor and a buffer stock of the employed? Press “play.”   http://elliswinningham.net/    https://www.facebook.com/ellis.winningham

Patricia Pino and Christian Reilly talk with lead MMT academic, professor Bill Mitchell, as he answers listeners’ questions about government bond issuance, central banking, the Job Guarantee, the NAIRU, the Euro, parallel currencies, debt jubilees, zero interest rate policy, capital controls, MMT university and more...

Hard to find better employment report. Big jobs, moderate wages, plenty new people came to work. Growth w/out inflation. True around the world. Ed Lazear, Stanford & Hoover; Joe Lavorgna. NAIRU dead? Phillips curve dead? Trump backs off tariffs. Virtually no one will pay. They could have been harmful to US econ. Foreign retaliation. Gary Cohn leaves. Trump negotiating style: punch them in teeth first, then make a deal. Nato spending & tariffs. Why not targeted tariffs against China? Save steel w/ budget subsidies & transparency. GOP Congress & Ryan against. Nationalist? Protectionist? Or fair & free trade? Dan Henniger, deputy editor WSJ editorial page. Trump's Hoover temptation. Apres Cohn, le deluge? Trump's Tariff folly. Trump attacks WSJ. Trump's tariffs hurt trade, which is good. Tear down barriers. Capital inflows. Stocks w/ Jon Najarian & Jeff Kleintop: overheating? Inflation? Tariffs? Jobs? Gen Jack Keane: N Korean story. Trump sanctions work? Denuclearize? Planning for meeting? Goals? Money/Politics: Trump going for clean reset? Bossie & Lewandowsky in WH? McMaster? Kelly? JiVanka?

I det 18:e avsnittet av Källarpodden: De första 15 minuterna är för nya och otåliga lyssnare. Vi svarar på frågor så som: Vilka är vi? Vad vill vi? och Har Nils någonsin kysst en kille? De andra 45 är för den intellektuella, skvallervänstern. Vi pratar om den svenska, ekonomiska bluffen NAIRU som gjorde en stor del av offentligt anställda arbetslösa under 90-talet. Vi analyserar också en sångtext och avslöjar skandalen bakom varför rösten till Björne byttes ut! Allt detta och mycket mer!

In this episode, we describe the Phillips Curve relationship between inflation and unemployment. In doing so, we differentiate between the short run and the long run and note the implication for policy makers. We also define and differentiate between full employment and the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment.