Podcasts about population decline

Spring blooms in NYC, and Opie Radio at Gebhards delivers a chaotic, laugh-packed episode! The crew kicks off with conspiracies about the Pope’s “unalived” Easter Monday exit, a blessed Lamborghini for Pope John Paul II, and Jim Morrison hiding in Syracuse. They dive into Florida Man Games with lawnmower racing, family scandals, and barfing on JetBlue. Ron takes over with a freezing Coney Island beach tale, a dubious sexual harassment counselor claim, and rants on food dyes and declining birth rates. A $100 saltine-eating challenge ends in a dusty disaster, while the street cam spots Yoko Ono (maybe). Grab a Lagunitas IPA for this unfiltered, edgy rollercoaster of humor and absurdity!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode, I sit down with Jimmy Song to explore the decline of education, and how fiat money corrupts institutions and distorts incentives throughout every layer of society. If you're looking for a hard-hitting discussion on why Bitcoin matters beyond just price, this episode is for you. ––– Offers & Discounts ––– Get 10% off your ticket for the Bitcoin Conference 2025 in Vegas! Use the promo code MATRIX at https://tickets.b.tc/affiliate/matrix/event/bitcoin-2025 Theya is the world's simplest Bitcoin self-custody solution. Download Theya Now at theya.us/cedric Get up to $100 in Bitcoin on River at river.com/Matrix The best Team Bitcoin merch is at HodlersOfficial.com. Use the code Matrix for a discount on your order. Become a sponsor of the show: https://thebitcoinmatrix.com/sponsors/ ––– Get To Know Today's Guest––– Jimmy Song on X: https://x.com/jimmysong Jimmy Song on Nostr: npub10vlhsqm4qar0g42p8g3plqyktmktd8hnprew45w638xzezgja95qapsp42  ––– Socials ––– Check out our new website at https://TheBitcoinMatrix.Com Follow Cedric Youngelman on X: https://x.com/cedyoungelman Follow The Bitcoin Matrix Podcast on X: https://x.com/_bitcoinmatrix Follow Cedric Youngelman on Nostr: npub12tq9jxmt707gd5vnce3tqllpm67ktr0mqskcvy58qqa4d074pz9s4ukdcs ––– Chapters ––– 00:00 - Intro 01:23 – Introduction to Jimmy Song 09:58 – Jimmy's latest book: Fiat Ruins Everything 11:14 – The inspiration behind writing the book 13:57 – The deep corruption of the fiat system 14:51 – Rent-seeking and why it dominates fiat economies 18:25 – How fiat steals dreams and replaces meaning 21:52 – The role of fiat education vs. family legacy 26:06 – How fiat companies replace community 29:06 – The decline in education and critical thinking 31:52 – Fiat politics taking over religion 35:27 – How fiat debases morality 40:31 – The rise of virtue signaling 44:55 – Debt, discipline, and the fiat consumption trap 48:28 – Speculative asset bubbles as a form of rent-seeking 51:27 – Resentment toward the wealthy in a fiat world 55:25 – How fiat debases marriage 01:01:20 – The erosion of love and relationships 01:07:17 – Why society devalues population growth 01:17:15 – The significance of children and family 01:21:03 – Postmodern investing and fiat-driven markets 01:29:06 – Are startups a legitimate non-fiat path? I want to take a moment to express my heartfelt gratitude to all of you for tuning in, supporting the show, and contributing. Thank you for listening!

SBF is in trouble after his interview with Tucker Carlson about prison, Diddy, & more.Cyx's channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChTARPpT15kqDH5drEsNu6AUse promo code COX at Mybookie.agGet 50% sitewide for a limited time. Just visit https://GhostBed.com/cox and use code COX at checkout.Do you want to be a guest? Fill out the form https://forms.gle/5H7FnhvMHKtUnq7k7Send me an email here: insidetruecrime@gmail.comDo you extra clips and behind the scenes content?Subscribe to my Patreon: https://patreon.com/InsideTrueCrime

March 14, 2025 ~ Wayne County saw a population increase for the first time in 5 years. Wayne County Executive, Warren Evans, joins Kevin to discuss this.

Researchers from the University of Toronto have directly linked the population decline in polar bears living in Canada's Western Hudson Bay to climate change.  Between 1979 and 2021, the polar bear population in this region has declined by nearly 50%. The monitoring data over this period shows that the average size of polar bears has […]

For many, the economic crisis that gripped Greece in the previous decade is over. However, its legacy is still there, and it goes well beyond the country's economy. One such legacy is Greece's birthrate, which was already declining, but the crisis accelerated its fall. As Greece faces a declining population, it also needs to ensure economic growth, and the question many are asking, including our guest today, is whether Greece can thrive with a shrinking population. John Psaropoulos joins Thanos Davelis as we look into Greece's demographic challenge, one that Prime Minister Mitsotakis has called “existential”. John Psaropoulos is an independent journalist and Al Jazeera's correspondent in southeast Europe. He publishes Hellenica, a weekly deep dive into Greek current affairs and history. You can find it on Substack.com.You can read the articles we discuss on our podcast here:Can Greece thrive with a shrinking population?Mitsotakis to unveil 12-year, €28 billion defense armament programTrump highlights Greece-Cyprus role in strategic trade corridor

Life, Culture and Current Events from a Biblical perspective.Your support sends the gospel to every corner of Australia through broadcast, online and print media: https://vision.org.au/donateSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Global Demographics' online database and apps provide forecasts of the demographic profile of 117 countries, 31 Provinces, and 625 cities in China. The forecasts from 2021 to 2045 (with historic data from 2005) include the basic demographic profile (age, by gender), births, deaths, migration, households, labor force, household income distribution, and expenditure patterns. The Company was formed in 1997 (as Asian Demographics Ltd) and has been building its databases, forecast models, and reports since then – originally for countries in Asia and then, as a result of client demand, for countries throughout the world. After 25 years of development, the coverage is now 117 countries and also China and India (each being around 20% of the world's population) by sub-regions (in the case of China down to all 2,852 counties) This episode uses a lot of visuals from Dr. Laurent. We recommend watching the episode on YouTube, which can be found here: https://youtu.be/PgBtazmyxpk Links: Global Demographics Ltd. - https://globaldemographics.com/ Clint on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/clint-laurent-4b87806/ Brando on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/bsedloff/ Juniper Square - https://www.junipersquare.com/ Topics: (00:00:00) - Intro (00:01:25) - Introducing Dr. Clint Laurent   (00:02:45) - The Importance of Demographics in Investment   (00:06:47) - China's Demographic Challenges   (00:18:20) - India's Demographic Potential   (00:25:17) - Japan's Aging Population   (00:28:58) - Japan's Dependency Ratio and Workforce   (00:30:54) - Impact of Population Decline on Japan's Economy   (00:33:58) - Southern Africa's Population Growth and Challenges   (00:42:42) - United States: Demographic Trends and Economic Stability   (00:47:41) - Eastern Europe's Demographic and Economic Outlook   (00:51:50) - South America's Middle-Aged Population and Economic Potential   (00:55:05) - Mexico's Economic Position and Future Prospects   (00:55:56) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts  

Common eiders are the largest duck in the Northern Hemisphere, with some tipping the scales at nearly 6 pounds. They are also the most widely distributed and heavily harvested sea duck in the world. In North America alone, there are 4 subspecies of the common eider. On this episode, Dr. Sarah Gutowsky and Kate Martin join Dr. Mike Brasher for Part One of our in depth discussion about this highly prized bird. This episode covers all the basics, including how to identify them, where they breed and winter, what their nests look like, and what we've learned from recent research about their ecology and unexpected shenanigans during the nesting season. Tune in for a wealth of information as we lay the foundation for even more discussions to come.Listen now: www.ducks.org/DUPodcastSend feedback: DUPodcast@ducks.org

The boys drink and review an English Mild from Schaffly, then discuss different approaches to population. Pigweed starts the show with the startling facts about population and how rapidly we got from 1 billion to 8 billion so quickly -- with no apparent signs of stopping. Malthus raised the concern that population can increase geometrically, but food production increases arithmetically, and predicted widespread starvation. In fact, food production skyrocketed, so the problem has been averted for now. Paul Erlich has been riding a similar issue for decades even though all his predictions turned out false as well. We didn't poison everything, the air is cleaner, and there has not been widespread disease and famine. The reality is more complicated. Population growth is not only slowing, but in many areas it's negative. The most recent trends indicate that population will level off in about 2050. Even if population only levels off, that still creates problems. The ratio between young and old would change dramatically, and the geniuses who invented our social support systems assumed an ever-growing population, where young people outnumbered old people. However, population might not only level off, but may decline. Rapidly. We have no economic or social models for that. Who welcomes this decline and who is worried about it? What are their motives?

In this episode of the How to Protect the Ocean podcast, host Andrew Luan discusses the significant decline in the population of common murres, a seabird species in Alaska, which has seen about half of its population die off—approximately 4 million individuals—since the marine heat wave known as "the blob" occurred from 2014 to 2016. The primary reason for this drastic decline is linked to the effects of the heat wave on the marine food web rather than direct thermal stress on the birds themselves. The heat wave caused shifts in the availability of food sources, leading to starvation among the murres. The study highlighted that the murres rely heavily on oceanic food supplies, and disruptions in these supplies can have devastating impacts on their populations. Research conducted by the University of Washington and the U.S. Fisheries and Wildlife Service revealed that the murre population in the Gulf of Alaska dropped by half, while in the eastern Bering Sea, the decline was even steeper at 75%. The study emphasized that without a recovery in the prey populations, the murres are unlikely to rebound, indicating a potential tipping point in the ecosystem that could prevent recovery for this species and others reliant on the same food sources. Overall, the episode underscores the importance of understanding and funding research on marine ecosystems to address the long-term impacts of climate change and marine heat waves on wildlife populations. Link to article: https://www.livescience.com/animals/birds/worst-die-off-of-a-single-species-in-the-modern-era-discovered-and-the-blob-was-to-blame Follow a career in conservation: https://www.conservation-careers.com/online-training/ Use the code SUFB to get 33% off courses and the careers program.   Do you want to join my Ocean Community? Sign Up for Updates on the process: www.speakupforblue.com/oceanapp   Sign up for our Newsletter: http://www.speakupforblue.com/newsletter   Facebook Group: https://bit.ly/3NmYvsI Connect with Speak Up For Blue: Website: https://bit.ly/3fOF3Wf Instagram: https://bit.ly/3rIaJSG TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@speakupforblue Twitter: https://bit.ly/3rHZxpc YouTube: www.speakupforblue.com/youtube  

China's population is now shrinking. India's could follow within a generation. South Korea has the world's lowest birth rate. Italy has the fastest shrinking population in Europe and Canada's birth rate dropped from 1.6 children per woman to 1.26 in less than a decade. Almost everywhere you look, fertility rates are dropping. What does a world look like with a shrinking population? Can you grow an economy with fewer and fewer people? Can governments do anything to arrest the declining rates and incentivize their population to have more kids? And could those solutions become darker and darker and imperil women's rights? Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson, authors of Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline, discuss the looming threat of population collapse. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of the Crazy Wisdom Podcast, host Stewart Alsop reconnects with Eric Fisher, one of the show's earliest guests. Their conversation weaves through profound topics like the evolution of AI, the potential consequences of large language models (LLMs), and how AI might reshape both spirituality and education. Eric shares reflections from his time at Facebook, offering behind-the-scenes insight into the creation of algorithmic feeds and how those decisions echo into today's world of AI-driven interactions. Together, Stewart and Eric explore the nature of human attention, the future of work, and the potential divide between tech-driven living and a return to nature. Their discussion raises essential questions about where humanity is headed in the face of exponential technological change and how people can retain their sense of agency and spirit along the way. If you want to learn more about Eric visit his website mindfulimprov.com.Check out this GPT we trained on the conversation!Timestamps00:00 Introduction and Reunion00:44 Reflecting on Past Interviews01:18 Spiritual Understandings and AI01:32 The Dual Nature of AI02:43 The Evolution of Facebook's News Feed05:32 AI's Role in Future Technologies13:47 AI in Education and Synthetic Data16:58 The Future of AI and Society21:54 Spirituality and Technology27:58 Humanoid Robots: Beyond Sex Dolls28:28 The Role of Robots in Agriculture and Home29:07 Industrial Robots vs. Home Robots29:44 The Philosophy Behind Technological Advancements30:22 The Vision of the Future: Post-Steve Jobs Era31:17 The Impact of AI and Automation on Society32:55 Accelerationism vs. Degrowth: The Tech Debate40:41 Demographic Crisis and the Future of Humanity45:18 Economic Inequality and the Common Man46:39 The Evolution of Political Ideologies52:09 The Future of Work and Society54:14 Concluding Thoughts and Future DiscussionsKey Insights1. The Dual Nature of AI: Promise and PerilEric Fisher highlights the dual potential of AI as both a tool for human advancement and a source of unforeseen challenges. Drawing from his experience at Facebook, he explains how algorithmic feeds designed to increase engagement eventually led to widespread issues like polarization and misinformation. This echoes in today's world of LLMs (Large Language Models), where AI's utility as a tool for learning, troubleshooting, and content creation exists alongside the risk of biased or manipulative outputs. The key takeaway is that technology, like a rock, is neutral — its impact depends on how it is used and who is using it.2. The Evolution of Attention as a ResourceAttention has become a central currency in the modern economy, and Fisher points out that the concept of "attention economy" wasn't even part of public discourse a few decades ago. Today, with the rise of LLM-driven AI companions and algorithmic feeds, attention is being sliced and sold with increasing precision. This shift raises questions about how much of human autonomy is being traded away in favor of frictionless convenience. As AI becomes more adept at predicting and shaping user behavior, the concept of "free will" within an attention-driven economy becomes murkier.3. The Next Phase of Education: Self-Directed Learning with AI TutorsBoth Stewart Alsop and Eric Fisher recognize the potential for AI to revolutionize education. Instead of the traditional classroom model, self-directed learning with AI-driven tutors could allow for personalized, one-on-one learning experiences for every student. Fisher notes that tools like ChatGPT have already enabled him to troubleshoot complex home systems, like his geothermal cooling system, without needing to call a specialist. This self-sufficiency could be mirrored in education, where AI assistants offer instant, tailored guidance to students across a range of subjects.4. The Blurring of Reality: Personalized AI-Generated WorldsA provocative idea discussed in the episode is the possibility of AI-generated personalized realities. Through augmented reality (AR) glasses or VR headsets, individuals could project and experience personalized versions of reality. Fisher points out that, in many ways, people already live in "personalized mental realities" shaped by language, perception, and cultural narratives. AI could make this more literal, with each person living in a bespoke, algorithmically generated world. While this concept sounds thrilling, it also hints at a future where shared consensus reality — the "real world" — becomes more fragmented than ever.5. Economic Shifts: From Worker-Centric to Business-Centric SystemsTracing the legacy of figures like FDR and LBJ, Fisher reflects on how America shifted from a society that valued the working class to one that prioritizes business interests. While earlier eras emphasized worker rights, health care, and public welfare, today's economy is focused on empowering small businesses and startups. Everyone is now expected to be a "business of one," as independent creators, gig workers, and personal brands become the dominant paradigm. The result is a world where individual workers act like micro-businesses, managing their own healthcare, retirement, and financial stability — often with no safety net.6. The Threat of Decentralized AI and the Loss of TruthWith Meta and OpenAI releasing LLMs and synthetic AI models into the open-source community, Fisher expresses concern about the fragmentation of "truth." As more people train and deploy their own AI models, the risk of misinformation rises. Just as search engines can prioritize certain content over others, decentralized AI models may be subtly — or overtly — biased. This issue becomes even more concerning if companies start inserting ad-driven recommendations into AI responses, giving users the illusion of objectivity when, in fact, they're being guided toward a commercial end.7. The Coming Collapse and the Chance for RenewalThe episode touches on a cyclical view of history, where moments of collapse often lead to periods of rebirth. Fisher compares this to the aftermath of the bubonic plague, which killed half of Europe's population but led to the Renaissance and an era of cultural flourishing. He speculates that a similar phenomenon could play out today. Whether through demographic decline, AI-driven disruption, or a collapse of old economic models, humanity could experience a dramatic contraction. Paradoxically, such a collapse might bring about an "age of spaciousness" where fewer people, better technology, and renewed humanism create a richer and more thoughtful way of life.

How do we combat historically low fertility rates? While having fewer children has been correlated with higher rates of education among women, a significant group of highly educated women are still choosing to have big families. What is different about these women, and what can they teach us about the nature of parenthood and the importance of children?This week, Naomi and Ian are joined by Catherine Pakaluk, economist and associate professor at The Catholic University of America, to discuss her recent book, Hannah's Children: The Women Quietly Defying the Birth Dearth. In researching her book, Dr. Pakaluk interviewed women with a college education who also have five or more children with their current spouse. The vast majority of mothers she spoke with viewed raising children as their first priority. This was true of their husbands as well. Work and career were the secondary goals that supported their ability to be parents. These mothers also viewed motherhood through the lens of their faith, whether Catholic, Protestant, Mormon, or Jewish. They shared the belief that children are blessings from God. Dr. Pakaluk discusses the number of unintended, “spillover” benefits she observed among these families, such as increased independence in their children and a less materialistic approach to life, as well as what the implications of her research could be for public policy. Resources -Hannah's Children: The Women Quietly Defying the Birth Dearth | Catherine Pakaluk-What Happens When Every Aspect of Parenting Is a Choice? | Naomi Schaefer RileyTime Stamps-00:37 | Why did you decide to begin this research?-02:30 | What were the criteria for the women included in your study?-04:44 | What were these women like, and what was the motive behind their choices to have large families?-09:20 | How do we shift the conversation around the declining birth rate from technical interventions to the deeper themes you are talking about?-13:13 | How do these women think about their choices with regard to their career? Did they make the choice from a very early age, and how did their decisions fit in with their husbands' decisions?-17:57 | How do you reconcile the strong role religion plays in the lives of these women with the rising secularism of young people we are seeing today?-20:50 | How does the religious atmosphere in these families affect their view on material things? What are the other unintended benefits of having large families?

For years, the world worried about overpopulation and our capacity to sustain ever-increasing numbers of people. Now, the worry is underpopulation—and recent numbers are stunning. Fertility rate is the average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime. According to the United Nations, this number is currently 1.64 in the U.S.: If it stays this way, in three generations there will only be half as many young Americans as there are today, holding immigration constant. In China, this number is even lower: one child per woman. Just eight countries are expected to account for more than half the rise in global population between now and 2050.Economic theory is based on the idea of expansion, and humanity has been expanding since 1500. If that is about to change, then the very foundation of our economic theory will need rethinking.Acclaimed author, historian, and filmmaker Sir Niall Ferguson (Stanford/Harvard) joins Bethany and Luigi to discuss why we're heading toward a global population decline and what it all means for civilization. They discuss how factors like climate change, immigration, reproductive rights, artificial intelligence, and the trade-offs women face between career and motherhood are influencing decisions to have children. What are the implications of falling birth rates not just for the market economy but also for geopolitics and intergenerational conflict? Can we reverse trends in fertility before it is too late?

The impact of the avian flu of elephant seals resulted in the death of 17,000 individuals in a population in Argentina. Researchers think the marine mammals caught the virus from migrating birds near their haul out areas that are usually packed with the animals one on top of the other. Unfortunately, 97% of the elephant seal pups were lost resulting in a devastating loss for generations to come.  In this episode of the "How to Protect the Ocean" podcast, host Andrew Lewin discusses the devastating impact of the H5N1 avian flu on the elephant seal population off the coast of Argentina. Over 17,000 elephant seals died last year due to the outbreak, with approximately 97% of the pups affected. This significant loss poses a serious threat to the population's future, as elephant seals are a slow-growing species that take time to reach sexual maturity and reproduce. The episode highlights how the H5N1 virus has adapted to marine mammals, allowing it to spread efficiently and evolve into distinct strains. The decline in the seal population and the loss of genetic diversity could make them more susceptible to future outbreaks and environmental stressors. The host emphasizes the importance of ongoing research, monitoring, and conservation efforts to mitigate risks and support the recovery of the elephant seal population. Lewin expresses concern over the emotional toll of witnessing such a high mortality rate among the pups, which are crucial for the colony's future. He calls for increased funding and prioritization of conservation efforts to ensure the survival of this vulnerable species. The episode concludes with a commitment to follow the story and seek ways to help the elephant seals as a community. Link to article: https://newsroom.wcs.org/News-Releases/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/23766/Elephant-Seal-Colony-Declines-One-Year-After-Avian-Flu-Outbreak.aspx Follow a career in conservation: https://www.conservation-careers.com/online-training/ Use the code SUFB to get 33% off courses and the careers program.   Do you want to join my Ocean Community? Sign Up for Updates on the process: www.speakupforblue.com/oceanapp   Sign up for our Newsletter: http://www.speakupforblue.com/newsletter   Facebook Group: https://bit.ly/3NmYvsI Connect with Speak Up For Blue: Website: https://bit.ly/3fOF3Wf Instagram: https://bit.ly/3rIaJSG TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@speakupforblue Twitter: https://bit.ly/3rHZxpc YouTube: www.speakupforblue.com/youtube  

Aaron Renn of American Reformer Life in the Negative World: Confronting Challenges in an Anti-Christian Culture The post The Impact of Population Decline on Churches – Aaron Renn, 11/6/24 (3113) first appeared on Issues, Etc..

In this week's episode, we dive into a pressing question: Is overpopulation the true challenge we face, or is depopulation a more urgent concern? To discuss this important issue, we are joined by Lyman Stone, a senior fellow and Director of the Pronatalism Initiative at the Institute for Family Studies, and the Chief Information Officer at Demographic Intelligence. Lyman has extensively studied global family formation and demographic trends. His insights have been featured in leading publications like the New York Times and Wall Street Journal. Tune in to hear Lyman's perspective on population dynamics, the potential impacts of declining birth rates, and what it all means for the future. If you would like to interview Richard Nelson, Executive Director of the Commonwealth Policy Center, please email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠richard@commonwealthpolicy.org⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Like and Follow us on Facebook: www.facebook.com/commonwealthpolicy Follow us on Twitter: @CPC4Kentucky LinkedIn: Commonwealth Policy Center E-Newsletter: https://www.commonwealthpolicycenter.org/mailing-list/ --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/commonwealth-matters/support

This is The Briefing, a daily analysis of news and events from a Christian worldview.Part I (00:13 - 10:40)Hamas Leader Killed by Israeli Forces: The Death of Yahya Sinwar Raises Important Theological and Moral Principles about Rightful Killing in a Dangerous and Fallen WorldPart II (10:40 - 15:32)What Should Israel Do Now? Will the Palestinian People Forge Their Own Future? – The Death of Yahya Sinwar Raises Massive Questions about the FutureHow the Biden Team Plans to Build Peace From Sinwar's Death by The New York Times (Thomas L. Friedman)Part III (15:32 - 19:36)How Should Christians Think About the Argument that Population Decline is a Good Thing? — Dr. Mohler Responds to Letters from Listeners of The BriefingPart IV (19:36 - 24:42)Can You Explain the Decline of Sunday Evening Worship Services? — Dr. Mohler Responds to Letters from Listeners of The BriefingPart V (24:42 - 26:01)Who Replaced Satan as Head Angel After Satan was Kicked Out of Heaven? — Dr. Mohler Responds to Letters from Listeners of The BriefingPart VI (26:01 - 28:57)Why Does Kamala Harris Use the Word ‘Values' So Much? — Dr. Mohler Responds to Letters from Listeners of The BriefingSign up to receive The Briefing in your inbox every weekday morning.Follow Dr. Mohler:X | Instagram | Facebook | YouTubeFor more information on The Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, go to sbts.edu.For more information on Boyce College, just go to BoyceCollege.com.To write Dr. Mohler or submit a question for The Mailbox, go here.

The complete archive of Subversive episodes, including exclusive episodes and my writing, is available on Substack. For a bit less, you can also subscribe to the podcast sans writing on Patreon. This is how the show is financed and grows, so I appreciate every contribution! Please subscribe at: ⁠⁠https://www.alexkaschuta.com/ ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.patreon.com/aksubversive⁠ In this conversation, we explore the significance of national IQ over individual IQ, the impact of cultural externalities on immigration, and the disparities in income across countries. We also discuss the implications of population decline, fiscal responsibility, and the role of the US in global economics. The conversation also delves into the concept of smart fractions in innovation, the effects of cultural transplants on immigration policy, and the challenges facing democracy in the West. Garett Jones is an economist, a professor at George Mason University, and an author. His research covers areas from macroeconomics, monetary policy, and IQ in relation to productivity, short-term business cycles, and economic development. His most recent book is The Culture Transplant: How Migrants Make the Economies They Move To a Lot Like the Ones They Left. Chapters 00:00 The Importance of National IQ 02:46 Cultural Externalities and Immigration 06:00 Cross-Country Income Disparities 08:45 Population Decline and Economic Implications 12:06 Fiscal Sustainability and Government Spending 14:49 US Hegemony and Global Economics 18:11 Smart Fractions and Innovation 21:10 The Role of Elites in Democracy 23:59 Cultural Transplants and Immigration Policy 27:11 Democracy and Ethnic Diversity 29:57 The Influence of the EU on Eastern Europe 32:46 Leadership and Collaboration 35:56 The Future of Democracy 39:03 Recommended Thinkers and Closing Thoughts

Tammy Phelps is a Louisiana State Representative from Shreveport, joining us to discuss Louisiana's ongoing population decline. We dive into the key factors driving people, especially Millennials and Gen Z, to leave the state, including job market challenges, lack of investment in education, and state policies that don't adequately address these issues. Tammy shares her perspective on how Louisiana can reverse this trend by focusing on improving education, workforce development, and economic opportunities. We also touch on how local and state governments can better collaborate to drive growth, with examples from Tammy's district. From Shreveport's struggle with economic identity to statewide concerns about minimum wage and infrastructure, this conversation is a candid look at what needs to change for Louisiana to thrive. Follow Pelican Briefs Patreon: patreon.com/LaPelicanBriefs Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lapelicanbriefs/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61560259747696 X: https://x.com/LaPelicanBriefs

This episode centers on the alarming issue of declining fertility rates worldwide, examining specific country examples such as Japan, South Korea, and Turkey, and the societal and technological implications of these demographic changes.  Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg explore potential interventions, such as tax breaks for families, and the possibility of extreme measures like state-managed reproduction programs. They also tackle cultural and economic factors influencing fertility and the urgency of addressing this underpopulation crisis to prevent civilizational collapse.  --

Paul Morland, author of 'No One Left', joins the Brain in a Vat podcast to discuss demographic changes and Pronatalism. Paul explores the idea of having more children in response to declining fertility rates, demographic momentum, and the potential societal impacts of population collapse. Paul discusses potential solutions, including state intervention, cultural changes, and technological advancements. Read Morland's book here: https://www.amazon.co.uk/No-One-Left-World-Children/dp/1800754108 [00:00] Introduction [00:17] A Thought Experiment on Pronatalism [02:06] Debating the Value of Life [06:12] David Benatar's Perspective [10:28] Population Ethics and Decline [11:40] Challenges of Low Fertility Rates [18:43] Technology and Immigration as Solutions [24:08] The Role of AI in the Future Workforce [33:43] Skepticism Towards AI and Technological Solutions [35:42] The Changing Nature of Retirement and Aging [39:30] Economic Implications of Population Collapse [41:15] Environmental Concerns and Population Dynamics [46:11] Cultural and Political Influences on Fertility Rates [51:39] Potential Solutions and Government Interventions [01:08:37] Concluding Thoughts and Future Outlook

Send us a textGrowth is essential to human life. Always has been, always will be. From the moment we are born, we grow, and we continue to throughout our lives, whether that is physically, mentally, or otherwise. Societies grow too.But what is growth? Real growth is replicable, durable, and sustainable (and not in the sense that immediately comes to mind). Your seven-year-old doesn't shrink back down after she grows an inch. It might happen when she's ninety, but that's gravity (and don't you think she's had a good run at this point? We should accept that it's ok to have a growth recession every now and again). So how have intellectuals conceptualized the growth of societies, environments, and economies over time? And how should we think about growth? The wonderful Henry C. Clark joins us on the podcast today to answer these questions and more. He is the program director of the Political Economy Project at Dartmouth College and the author of several books including the newly released The Moral Economy We Have Lost: Life Before Mass Abundance. Go check it out!Want to explore more?Henry Clark on the Enlightenments, a Great Antidote podcast.Pierre Desrochers, From Prometheus to Arcadia: Liberals, Conservatives, the Environment, and Cultural Cognition, at Econlib.Robert Pindyck on Averting and Adapting to Climate Change, an EconTalk podcast.Sandra Peart and David Levy, Happiness and the Vanity of the Philosopher: Part1, at Econlib.Deirdre McCloskey and Economists' Ideas About Ideas, a Liberty Matters forum at the Online Library of Liberty.Never miss another AdamSmithWorks update.Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

More and more women in the United States are saying no to motherhood. Alarmingly, in 2023, the U.S. fertility rate reached the lowest number on record. But the idea of non-motherhood is actually not a new phenomenon, nor did it come out of the modern feminist movement. For centuries, women have made choices about limiting births and whether or not to become mothers at all. This history is documented in a new book, "Without Children: The Long History of Not Being a Mother," by University of Chicago Assistant Instructional Professor Peggy O'Donnell Heffington.Heffington writes about the historic trends of non-motherhood as well as the modern factors that are playing a role in women's choices to not have children today — from lack of structural support in the workplace, to a national law for paid maternity leave, and the sheer lack of affordability. She writes that if these trends continue, American millennials could become the largest childless cohort in history.

Across the globe, populations are in precipitous decline. People are simply not having children at the fertility rate needed to sustain our global demography. Here in the U.S., the fertility rate in 2023 hit a historic low, according to the CDC. That means not enough new workers, on whose taxes the rest of us depend as we age. What else do we need to know about the issue, and importantly, what can be done about it? Jennifer Sciubba, President and CEO of the non-profit Population Reference Bureau, joins The Excerpt to offer a new perspective on the issue.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Summary Lucy Howell, founder of FamilySync Media, shares her journey of starting her business and becoming a parent. She started her business as a virtual assistant after leaving her job as a dental nurse during the COVID-19 pandemic. She rebranded her business to FamilySync Media to focus on working with parent-based businesses. Lucy also hosts the podcast Balancing Business and Babies, where she interviews parents about how they juggle work and parenting. Lucy also opens up about her struggle with infertility and how she eventually became a mother. The conversation covers various topics related to the challenges and complexities of the adoption process, the importance of family and parenting, and the struggles working parents face. It also touches on issues such as the decline in population, the impact of societal expectations on women, and the flaws in government systems and policies. The conversation highlights the need for reform and support for families and the importance of creating a positive narrative around families and parenting. Takeaways Lucy Howell started her business, FamilySync Media, as a virtual assistant after leaving her job as a dental nurse during the COVID-19 pandemic. She rebranded her business to focus on working with parent-based businesses and offers services such as podcast management and social media. Lucy hosts the podcast Balancing Business and Babies, in which she interviews parents about how they manage work and parenting. She opens up about her struggle with infertility and how she eventually became a mother, emphasizing the importance of mindset and finding inner peace. The adoption process can be long and complicated, and reform is needed to make it more efficient and accessible. Many good and genuine people want to become foster parents or adoptive parents, but the current system makes it difficult for them. The lack of universal healthcare in the United States makes the concept of free IVF in the UK mind-boggling. Societal expectations and cultural narratives often place a high value on women based on their ability to bear children, which can be detrimental and unfair. Working parents often face challenges and are disadvantaged by government systems and policies, such as childcare costs and custody battles. There is a need for positive change and support for families and a shift in societal attitudes towards families and parenting. Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Podcast Announcement 01:53 Introduction to Lucy Howell and FamilySync Media 08:14 Balancing Business and Babies Podcast 15:53 Lucy's Struggle with Infertility 30:37 The Power of Letting Go 33:28 Challenges in the Adoption Process 34:23 Simplifying the Adoption Process 35:47 The Cost of IVF 37:01 Challenges with IVF Eligibility 38:57 Inequities in IVF Eligibility 42:40 Societal Pressure on Women to Bear Children 44:48 Population Decline and Cultural Shifts 47:41 Government Support for Families 50:54 Challenges Faced by Working Parents 52:00 Issues with Childcare and Schooling in the UK 53:52 Unfair Treatment of Fathers in the UK 55:56 Working Parents and Government Assistance 58:21 Shoutouts to Four Fathers Clothing and the June App 01:01:04 Closing Remarks and Contact Information Support the Pod! Subscribe to the Newsletter and find all the deals, specials, promos and partners of Young Dad Podcast on our Link.Tree- ⁠⁠https://linktr.ee/ballboyblog⁠ Joon App: Discount code: YNGDAD Listener Link: ⁠joonapp.io/youngdad⁠ Make sure to like, follow, subscribe, leave a review and show your support --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/youngdadpod/support

Nova Scotia and Mi'kmaq on Cape Breton have temporarily suspended any moose hunting on the island due to a sharp decline in the moose population. Guest host Preston Mulligan spoke to Chief Leory Denny of the Assembly of Nova Scotia Mi'kmaw Chiefs to give his perspective.

Great Lakes mallards are an important source of locally harvest for hunters in the region, but their population has declined by nearly 60% since 1997. Recently completed research sponsored by Ducks Unlimited and a host of other partners provides insights into the potential causes. In the first of this 2-part discussion, Dr. Ben Luukkonen, imminent PhD graduate from Michigan State University, and Dr. John Coluccy, DU's director of conservation planning and science for the Great Lakes and Atlantic Region, introduce the background for this research and highlight the questions it explored, ranging from changes in survival to influence of game-farm genetics.  www.ducks.org/DUPodcast

Welcome to another episode of Pelican Briefs with your hosts, Charles Miller and Etosha McGee! In this episode, we dive deep into the pressing issue of Louisiana's population decline. Join us as we explore the various factors driving this trend, including inadequate education and healthcare, which contribute to a significant brain drain as college graduates leave the state. We discuss the role of the state legislature in this crisis, criticizing recent bills that fail to address these core issues. Instead, we see a focus on conservative cultural policies, such as mandatory Ten Commandments displays in classrooms, which do little to solve the real problems. We emphasize the need for better investment in public education and healthcare to retain residents and boost the state's future. Our conversation also covers the impacts of natural disasters, insurance challenges, and the broader effects of conservative social policies on our population. Despite these challenges, we highlight the unique cultural and community aspects of Louisiana that continually draw people back, showcasing why we believe in the potential for positive change. Join us as we unpack these critical issues and share our hopes for a brighter future for Louisiana. Don't forget to subscribe to Pelican Briefs and support us on Patreon to keep the conversation going! Enjoy the episode, and let us know your thoughts in the comments! Follow Pelican Briefs Patreon: patreon.com/LaPelicanBriefs Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lapelicanbriefs/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61560259747696 X: https://x.com/LaPelicanBriefs Sources: https://www.nola.com/news/politics/louisiana-population-falls-in-cities-rural-areas-data-show/article_72e326a2-e231-11ee-bcc8-43800939b6fc.html#:~:text=Louisiana%20saw%20its%20population%20shrink,were%20spread%20throughout%20the%20state https://www.nola.com/news/politics/louisiana-population-falls-in-cities-rural-areas-data-show/article_72e326a2-e231-11ee-bcc8-43800939b6fc.html https://www.nola.com/opinions/guest-column-what-the-data-tell-us-about-louisiana-s-population-loss/article_c475fcb4-f132-11ee-8f23-6bb79a003f00.html  https://www.nola.com/news/politics/louisianas-population-drops-for-third-straight-year/article_4f42d362-9ec2-11ee-b0c6-5b75e8c39c43.html  https://www.nola.com/opinions/our_views/editorial-louisianas-population-loss-must-be-call-to-arms/article_21b9c53c-e539-11ee-94c7-67f44552df2d.html https://www.nola.com/news/business/new-orleans-population-decline-is-highest-in-us/article_ec88bede-e2dd-11ee-8582-4fc7d9e49977.html 

China's recent population decline underscores a long-term challenge more countries will face. Capital Group economist Jared Franz shares his views on how population decline will impact the global economy and how artificial intelligence could help fill the gaps. #CapGroupGlobal   For full disclosures go to capitalgroup.com/global-disclosures   For our latest insights, practice management ideas and more, subscribe to Capital Ideas at getcapitalideas.com. If you're based outside of the U.S., visit capitalgroup.com for Capital Group insights.   Watch our latest podcast, Conversations with Mike Gitlin, on YouTube: https://bit.ly/CG-Gitlin-playlist.   This content is published by Capital Group, home of American Funds Distributors, Inc. which will be renamed Capital Client Group, Inc. on or around July 1, 2024. American Funds aren't registered for sales outside the U.S.   U.K. investors can view a glossary of technical terms here: https://bit.ly/49rdcFq   To stay informed, follow us   LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/42uSYbm   YouTube: https://bit.ly/4bahmD0   Follow Mike Gitlin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikegitlin/   About Capital Group Capital Group was established in 1931 in Los Angeles, California, with the mission to improve people's lives through successful investing. With our clients at the core of everything we do, we offer carefully researched products and services to help them achieve their financial goals.   Learn more: capitalgroup.com   Join us: capitalgroup.com/about-us/careers.html   Copyright ©2024 Capital Group

We explore why Milwaukee's population has declined since the pandemic. Then, we look at how Wisconsin's restaurants and bars are recovering post-pandemic. We learn about a project to connect hundreds of miles of biking and walking trails in southeast Wisconsin.

This Episode Tommy talks about his comedy career, divorce, how he almost lost his new cat, and a trip he had in his 20's in Europe. Tommy Ryman, a semifinalist on NBC's Last Comic Standing, is an acclaimed comedian. His oddly-adorable stand-up landed him No. 1 on iTunes comedy charts for his album Party Troll. Named Best of the Midwest at Gilda's Laugh Fest, Tommy grew up in Minnesota jamming on clarinet for his new-age mom and kale-chip-making dad. He performs at top clubs, colleges, and festivals across the nation including the Great American Comedy Festival. Tommy was invited to be on Nickelodeon's NickMom Night Out and has a full comedy special on Dry Bar Comedy. He's worked alongside Nick Swardson, Hannibal Buress, Maria Bamford and Louie Anderson but none wear a cardigan quite like Tommy. Featured on Paste Magazine and regularly heard on SirusXM and iheartradio, Tommy's act can be described as absurdist and clever masked behind an endearing, innocent demeanor. A Last Comic Standing judge raved, “I have never seen anything like [Tommy] before in my whole life, [he is] one-of-a-kind, fantastic!”  Chapters 0:00 Clean and Dirty Writing Style 2:48 Divorce 7:00 Editing your Art 8:15 Attention Span 11:42 Slept in a train station in Paris 19:15 Sleeping in random places 22:14 Headliner locked us out of the condo 23:02 Road stories 25:01 Grandpa in a plane crash 29:03 Population Decline & AI 39:14 New Cat Story. Tommy's Website: https://www.tommyryman.com/ Submit Your Questions and stories on Send it Show: https://form.jotform.com/233275884132156 Brendan's Website: brendangay.komi.io Reddit channel Here: https://www.reddit.com/user/BrendanGayComedy/ --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/brendan-gay/message

Incentive won't satisfy the deep cultural shift on views of marriage.

PREVIEW: GLOBAL POPULATION 2100: Conversation with colleague Gregory Compley re the population decline in Africa, India and China by mid-Century and corresponding dramatic growth in the aged. More tonight. 1822 Bombay

Birth rates are plummeting around the world and no one has cracked the code on how to get people to have babies. More money, free daycare, and medical advances don't appear to help…and criminalizing abortion DEFINITELY doesn't help. This week on How We Got Here, Erin and Max break down how the 20th century baby boom is misremembered, the factors responsible for declining birth rates today, and whether anything can be done about it.  SOURCES: Understanding the Baby Boom - Works in ProgressGerman birth rate drops steeply against backdrop of unease – DW – 03/20/2024Italy's falling birth rate is a crisis that's only getting worse | EuronewsSouth Korea's birth rate is so low, the president wants to create a ministry to tackle it | CNNRomania's abortion ban was deadly for women and is a warning for U.S. - The Washington PostEl Salvador (CIA)El Salvador: Court Hears Case on Total Abortion Ban | Human Rights WatchAlarm as South Korea sees more deaths than birthsWork–life balance - Government of SwedenU.S. Fertility Rate Falls to Record Low - WSJA World Without Men: Inside South Korea's 4B MovementEverything you need to know about artificial wombsCan Immigration Solve the Demographic Dilemma? – IMF F&D

How does population decline affect both short- and long-term economic growth? “There is a concern among developed countries that this may have an impact on productivity,” said Juan Sanchez, senior economic policy advisor at the St. Louis Fed. “But there is not a lot of research on that.” In this podcast episode, Sanchez discusses his research about how population decline impacts productivity, a key driver of economic growth.

Welcome to this Hump day edition of the Vince Coakley Radio Program! Vince begins the show with the story of Jackie Smith getting her college degree, results from yesterday's runoff election, and comments from CNN's Fareed Zakaria regarding the trouble Joe Biden is facing as his support among voters weakens heading into the summer before the 2024 Presidential election. In the second half of the program, Vince talks about the strength of the US economy being hidden by the staggering inflation rate, declining global birth rates, and familiar companies that are going out of business.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Countries with shrinking populations will have an easier time adjusting to this new world.  Blackwater CEO Larry Fink told the World Economic Forum that countries with population decline will be able to substitute humans for machines easily.  These same countries will also easily adjust to social issues, and will be more innovative than their xenophobic neighbors.  Mike Parrott says Fink has it all wrong.  Mike reveals that Fink's comments is just another way the elites are wording their thoughts on population control.  He says this is how the elites push their agenda on an unsuspecting people and get them to comply.  There is only one problem, there are people like Mike Parrott who will make sure the word gets out.

If properties are empty from population decline, they'll lose value and rent. If this happens, then what's the timeline? Richard Vague, the PA Governor-appointed Secretary of Banking and Securities from 2020-2023, joins us.  US and world birth rates keep declining. As population declines, per capita GDP often increases. Richard believes that inequality will widen. Most models show the US population increasing for several decades. A median model is 342M today up to 383M in 2054. Opposite of what the Fed thinks, Richard believes that lower interest rates can quell today's persistent inflation. The US has had 9 instances of high inflation. It's often spurred by wars, which create shortages. I tell Richard about GRE's Inflation Triple Crown and ask his opinion. Real estate values rise as debt-to-GDP rises. I point-blank ask Richard if an economic crisis is imminent. Resources mentioned: Follow Richard Vague: Join.TychosGroup.org For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold   Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. The phenomenon of population decline is spreading throughout the world. Will that come to the US and obliterate real estate then? A bit of a debate on the affliction of inflation and what this all means to real estate today on get rich education. When you want the best real estate and finance info. The modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are. At no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text GRE to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free. It's called the Don't Quit Your Day dream letter and it wires your mind for wealth.   Keith Weinhold (00:01:18) - Make sure you read it. Text GRE to 66866. Text GRE to 66866.   Corey Coates (00:01:30) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold (00:01:46) - We're going to drive from Lake Winnebago, Wisconsin to Mono Lake, California, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education. Real estate is obviously a strong, proven store of value. Now, what's interesting is that most economists agree that money should be three things a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value. Well, please don't take offense here. This can sound a little crude, but there's one thing to call those that use dollars as a store of value, and that is poor. How is a dollar a store of value when you've had 20% plus cumulative inflation over the last three years alone, the dollar is a poor store of value. We're going to get into inflation with our other esteemed guest and gubernatorial appointee today. He has some opinions on inflation, and you may very well feel that I poke him on this topic today.   Keith Weinhold (00:02:58) - I'll also get his input on our inflation Triple Crown concept, where real estate helps you win with inflation three ways at the same time. But first, he and I are going to discuss the specter of population decline. And well, it's not always a specter to people because some feel that the world is better off with fewer people, environmentalists and others. Japan's native born population is falling at a rate of almost 100 people per hour. Yeah, you heard that right. Well, is that coming to the United States and how bad would that be for real estate? Before we go on with those discussions about population decline and then inflation, here's something cool. Is your first language Spanish, or do you have any Spanish speaking family or friends? If you do, you're in luck! I'm proud to announce that our real estate Pays five ways video course is now available in Spanish and it is free. Yes, all five course videos leverage depreciation, cash flow, ROA, tax benefits and inflation profiting. All broken down by me in Spanish.   Keith Weinhold (00:04:15) - You can see those five videos. And again they're free at get rich education. Comment espanol tell to familia e amigos. That's all right there on the page at get Rich education. Com slash espanol. And hey, if you're a business owner or decision maker and would like to advertise on our platform, well, we'd like to check you out first and look at this slowly. Oftentimes I use the product or service myself. Get rich. Education is ranked in the top one half of 1% of listened to podcasts globally, per lesson notes on air every single week since 2014. Some say that we were the first show to finally, clearly explain how real estate makes ordinary people wealthy. For advertising information and inquiries, visit get Rich education.com/ad let's get rich education compered. Today it's the return of a terrific guest. This week's guest was with us last year. He's an economic futurist, keynote speaker, and popular author. He's the former secretary of banking and securities for the Great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Today, he runs a group that predicts financial crises called Tycho's.   Keith Weinhold (00:05:40) - That's really interesting. Joining us from Philadelphia today. Hey, it's great to welcome back Richard Vague.   Richard Vague (00:05:47) - Thank you so much for having me. It's real privilege.   Keith Weinhold (00:05:50) - Vague is spelled vague u e just like it sounds. If you're listening in the audio only. Richard also has a YouTube channel where, among other things, he discusses topics like population decline and inflation. Two things that we'll get into today. But before that, Richard, how exactly do you get tapped by the governor of Pennsylvania to have been appointed his banking secretary? Anyway? How does that really happen?   Richard Vague (00:06:16) - Well, I served under Governor Thomas Wolf, a superb governor here at Pennsylvania. We kind of were both very familiar with each other, and I had already written a number of books on banking crises, including The Next Economic Disaster and A Brief History of Doom. And he had read those, and so much to my surprise, he showed up in my office one day and asked me if I'd consider it.   Keith Weinhold (00:06:40) - Wow, that is really cool.   Keith Weinhold (00:06:42) - All right. You kind of led with your writing in your books for making that happen. Richard, here's a big question that I have for you. At 8.1 billion people today is Earth's overpopulated or underpopulated?   Richard Vague (00:06:58) - Well, there's a lot of very valid points on both sides of that. You know, there are a number of folks who decry the level of population we have because of its destructive impact on the environment. And there's a lot of folks that note that it's population growth that really has made our economic growth so vibrant. So there's a real contention on that issue. We tend not to take a position, but what we do know is as world population growth is slowing, which it clearly is, that is going to make economic growth much more challenging in a whole lot of places around the world, some of which you're actually starting to see population declines, like China.   Keith Weinhold (00:07:46) - I want to get to that slowing growth in a moment. We talk about overpopulation versus under population. Some in the overpopulation camp thinking the world has too many people they're referred to as Malthusian, was named for Thomas Malthus, who in 1798 he said the world would exceed its agricultural carrying capacity and there was going to be mass starvation.   Keith Weinhold (00:08:09) - Malthus was wrong. He didn't consider technological advancements. So I guess my point is the future can be really difficult to predict.   Richard Vague (00:08:18) - Yeah. Without question. You know, the big innovation came in the early 1900s when we figured out how to synthetically manufacture of things like fertilizer, which allowed arable land area to increase dramatically. It kind of took them out of this equation off the table.   Keith Weinhold (00:08:36) - Yes. With the mechanization of harvesting and the engineering of foods, there sure have been a lot of advancements there to help feed more people. And yeah, Richard, you talk about population decline. Of course, the world population overall is still growing, but its rate of growth is declining. So before we talk about the United States, you mentioned China. Why don't we discuss population decline more in global terms, where even nations like India are already struggling to exceed the replacement birth rate of 2.1?   Richard Vague (00:09:10) - Yeah, I mean, it's a phenomenon that, you know, we haven't faced or perhaps even thought of for a couple hundred years because population growth accelerated so dramatically with the Industrial Revolution.   Richard Vague (00:09:22) - We've really not known anything but rapid growth. And frankly, it's easier to grow businesses. And the economy is old. But now we're seeing places like China, Japan, Germany that are facing population declines in places like India, which, as you said, is comparatively a younger country. Nevertheless, facing this prospect as well, then in 1980, the average age in the US was 30. Today it's 38. In Germany I believe it's 48. So the world is getting old in a way that it had not previously in the industrial revolutionary period.   Keith Weinhold (00:10:03) - I think a lot of people are aware that many parts of Europe, Japan, South Korea are in population decline or they're set up for population decline. But yes, some of these other nations that we think of as newer nations or growing nations, including India, are not forecast to. Grow in, Richard. Are we really down? Of course. There are a number of outliers. Are we down mostly to Africa that still have the high birth rates?   Richard Vague (00:10:29) - As the world has become more urban, the need for more kids has declined.   Richard Vague (00:10:35) - It's in an urban environment, become an expense rather than a benefit. So that alone accounts for the deceleration. And then you have folks that are getting married later, having kids later, and you simply can't have as many kids when those two things are true. So it's a combination of events, and there aren't that many places left that have higher birth rates. And even in Africa it's declining or decelerating. So the world's just moving in that direction.   Keith Weinhold (00:11:06) - Yeah. It's really once we see the urbanization trend in a nation, what lags behind that are slowing birth rates, oftentimes birth rates that don't even meet death rates in some places. It kind of goes back to the Thomas Malthus thing again, if you will. When you don't have a family farm, you don't need nine kids to milk the cows and shuck the corn and everything else like that. You might live in a smaller urban apartment.   Richard Vague (00:11:33) - But we're all just has it been thinking about this issue? And it's upon us now, and it's going to change everything from governments to handling debts to infrastructure to growth itself.   Richard Vague (00:11:48) - So we need to start thinking about this issue much more deeply than we have.   Keith Weinhold (00:11:54) - Is there any way that an economy can grow with a declining population, and how bad will it get?   Richard Vague (00:12:02) - An economy will obviously struggle to grow if the population is declining, but the per capita GDP and increase as population declines. And in fact, we might see that early on in a population decline situation. I think that's actually been true in Japan over the last few years. The population is down, but GDP per capita is actually increasing slightly. So I think it's longer term. When you talk about trying to service the debt that we have amassed with the smaller population, that we're really going to have issues.   Keith Weinhold (00:12:41) - Talk to us more about that. The servicing the debt part of a declining population.   Richard Vague (00:12:48) - The debt doesn't shrink on its own, you know, so it tends to grow because, you know, it's accruing interest.   Keith Weinhold (00:12:54) - It always seems to go one direction.   Richard Vague (00:12:56) - It always pretty much only goes in one direction. So it's pretty simple.   Richard Vague (00:13:00) - If you have growing debt and I'm talking about public debt and private debt, and you have a declining base to service that, you have more people in retirement who are not paying as much in the way of taxes. It's going to increase the challenge, and it may in fact, increase it considerably. As we look at a few decades.   Keith Weinhold (00:13:21) - We need productivity to pay down debt that's more difficult to do in the declining population. We talk about technological advancements, some things that we cannot foresee. Did you sort of lead on to the fact that some of this might help us be more productive, even in a declining population, whether that's machine learning or robotics or AI? What are your thoughts there?   Richard Vague (00:13:45) - That's something that's been predicted for quite some time. You know, if we look back not too far ago, economists were wondering what we were going to do with all of our free time, right? Because, you know, automate. And this goes back to the 20s and 30s and 40s what we do with all our free time.   Richard Vague (00:14:01) - So we again have conversations along those lines. You know, it's not inconceivable that we could all be sitting there, you know, sipping our Mai tais, and the machines could be doing all the work for us. And servicing debt might be easy in that scenario, I doubt it. I don't think that's what's going to happen.   Keith Weinhold (00:14:19) - The more technology advances, the more complex society gets. That continues to create jobs in places where we cannot see them. I mean, case in point here, in the year 2024, we're more technologically advanced than we've ever been in human history, obviously. Yet here in the United States, we have more open jobs than we even do people to fill them.   Richard Vague (00:14:39) - Yeah. And I think one of the things that all of this does is increase the march of inequality. You have folks that master the technology become engineers, software engineers and the like that are going to be the huge beneficiaries of these trends. But folks that don't have the skill sets aren't going to benefit from these trends.   Richard Vague (00:15:01) - And even though in aggregate, we may continue to see per capita GDP increase, our track record over the last few decades would suggest that inequality will increase just as markedly as it has in the past, so we'll have some societal issues to face.   Keith Weinhold (00:15:19) - That's concerning as inflation. Continues to exacerbate inequality simultaneously, which we'll talk about later. But population decline is of concern to us as real estate investors because of course, we need rent paying tenants. So this could be pretty concerning to some. You've probably seen a lot of the same models that I have, Richard, let me know. In the United States, population is projected to increase for several decades by every single model that I've seen, maybe even until or after the year 2100.   Richard Vague (00:15:53) - The projection is by 2050, we'll have about 380 something million people, and today we're at 330 million people. So clearly the population is going to continue. It's just kind of the relative portion of those populations. And what I think we're seeing, and you as real estate investors would know this better than I, is a shift towards the type of real estate out there.   Richard Vague (00:16:19) - Right? So instead of new homeowner development, it's retirement development that I think is going to be the higher growth sector with the real estate industry.   Keith Weinhold (00:16:31) - And we're surely going to see fewer offices be built, something that may never come back. And then when we talk about things like birth rates and population growth rates here in the real estate world, I sort of think of there as being a lag effect. It's really not so much about today's births in the United States, because people often rent their first place in their 20s, and then the average age of a first time homebuyer is an all time record high 36. And all those people are going to need housing into old age as well. So to me, it's sort of about, oh, well, how many people were born from the 1940s to the 1990s?   Richard Vague (00:17:10) - Well, there's a very useful tool that's pretty easily available called the Population Pyramid. You can find that on the CIA World Factbook site for every country and including the United States. And it shows exactly what you're talking about, which is the number of folks, you know, between 0 and 10 years old and into 20 years old and so forth.   Richard Vague (00:17:32) - So you can kind of make reasonable projections about the near term based on the data that the CIA World Factbook is kind enough for by I believe the UN has this data as well, so you can make informed judgments about the very thing you're talking about here, which is how many folks are in their 20s to over the next ten years versus the last ten years.   Keith Weinhold (00:17:54) - Yeah, that's reassuring to real estate investors to know that we expect several decades of population growth in the United States. However, it may be slowing growth. So we talked about births, I mentioned deaths. Well, you tell us a bit more about immigration, something else that can be very difficult to project here in the real estate world that we have a popular analyst called John Byrne's research and Consulting. Their data shows that we had 3.8 million Americans added to our population last year, much of it through immigration. That's a jump of more than 1%, an all time record in our 248 year history in one year alone. So can you tell us, at least in the United States, a bit more about immigration in the calculus for population projections? Richard.   Richard Vague (00:18:42) - Immigration is a huge factor in the demographics of every country in the US, from a pure population growth standpoint as benefited by in-migration, including illegal and migration. That is a positive comparison versus a lot of countries that are either more restrictive art is desirable destinations for immigration and the life. So it has benefited us from a pure population standpoint. But what we clearly see is there are cultural ramifications that are difficult for us to deal with. We have the percent of folks that are in the United States that were born in another country. It's the highest it's been, I think, at least in a century or more and perhaps ever, that is really difficult for the general population to absorb. We see this in the headlines every day. We see it the concern, we see it in the political rhetoric. It's a real issue. So you have a very real conflict between the economic benefits of immigration versus the cultural divisions that that immigration creates. And that's not going to be easy to digest or to resolve. I think we probably end up continuing to compromise, but it continues to be a political lightning rod right into the foreseeable future.   Keith Weinhold (00:20:14) - And there are so many factors here. Where's our future immigrant diaspora? Is it in places in Latin America like Guatemala? In Honduras, in Colombia. And are those people going to come from there? So there are a lot of factors, many of which aren't very predictable, to take a look at our future population growth rate in the United States. We're talking with economic futurist, author and Pennsylvania's former secretary of banking and Securities, Richard Moore, and we come back on the affliction of inflation. This is general education. I'm your host, Keith Weintraub. Role under this specific expert with income property, you need Ridge lending Group and MLS 42056 in grey history, from beginners to veterans. They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account, up to 12%.   Keith Weinhold (00:21:44) - Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six.   Speaker 4 (00:22:33) - This is author Jim Rickards. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your day dream.   Keith Weinhold (00:22:49) - Welcome back to get Rich. So we're talking with economic futurist, author and Pennsylvania's former secretary of banking and securities. His name is Richard Vague. And Richard, before the break we talked about how many more people are there going to be on this earth.   Keith Weinhold (00:23:03) - We know for sure that there's also the growth of the number of dollars in this nation. So we're talking about inflation here. You talk an awful lot about the affliction of inflation and the history of inflation. And I think a lot of people when we talk about the history of inflation, maybe we should begin chronologically. They don't realize that inflation wasn't always with us. Since the birth of this nation.   Richard Vague (00:23:30) - We haven't had that many episodes of inflation. We look at it pretty hard. We see nine what we would consider nine instances of high inflation. Most of those have come with war. So we certainly had that. The Revolutionary War right of 1812 and the Civil War and World War one and World War two. But inflation has been brief, contained and rare in the history of Western developed nations. We had our bout in the 1970s that related to OPEC and the constraint of the oil supply. It normally relates to the decimation or constraint of the supplies and the supply chain. We saw it again with Covid.   Richard Vague (00:24:17) - A lot of folks consider it to be a monetary phenomenon. We just don't see that in the data.   Keith Weinhold (00:24:24) - So we talk about what causes these bouts of inflation. You talked about nine of them. Well, he talked to us more about why wars often create inflation. Of course we're trying to create a lot of supplies during wars, but they tend to be only certain types of supplies.   Richard Vague (00:24:40) - World War One is a great example. Probably, you know, two thirds of the farms in Europe were decimated. So for a couple of years, there simply weren't the kind of crops that are needed for nutrition being grown in Europe, we Corps and the like. So the US had to, frankly, export something on the order of 20% of its crops to Europe to prevent starvation. Well, it's pretty easy to see that if the US if the supply has been decimated in Europe, we're having to ship, you know, a huge chunk of our crops to Europe, that the price of wheat and corn would go up.   Richard Vague (00:25:21) - And that's exactly what happened. It's also pretty easy to see that as those farms came back on stream and began growing crops, that the price of wheat and corn would drop. And that's exactly what happened. So you have this relatively short lived period of 2 or 3 years where the decimation of supplies caused inflation, and that's fairly typical.   Keith Weinhold (00:25:45) - Supply falls, demand exceeds supply and prices rise much like what happened with those Covid shortages, as you mentioned, what are the other major causes of inflation other than supply shortages that have caused these nine bouts of inflation?   Richard Vague (00:26:03) - Well, let's talk about major developed countries, which I would include Western Europe, the United States predominantly. That's pretty much the only thing that has brought sustained high inflation is supply constraint. We don't see instances of high government debt growth or money supply growth ever causing inflation. Now when you get to smaller countries where they are borrowing in a foreign currency, where they have a trade deficit and where they yield to the temptation of printing too much money, and I don't mean by printing, we use that term in the United States, and it's absolutely a fictitious term.   Richard Vague (00:26:50) - We don't print money in the United States. We have it printed money since the Civil War. So in a third world country, they can actually go to a printing press and start paying with cash for government supply needs. And you can see it very clearly when it happens and it very quickly leads to high inflation. You know, this is in places like Argentina and the like. So that would be the big issue in these countries. It's they borrow at a foreign currency. They have a trade deficit. They yield to the temptation of actually printing currency. It can get out of control pretty fast.   Keith Weinhold (00:27:26) - It feels immoral. As soon as more currency is printed, it dilutes the purchasing power surreptitiously of all those people that are holding that currency. What about Richard? The government printing. And we can put printing in quote marks, say, $1 trillion to fund a new infrastructure program. A technically that is inflation if we. Go back to the root definition of inflation, inflation being an expansion of the money supply.   Keith Weinhold (00:27:54) - But talk to us about how something like that does or does not dilute the purchasing power to fund, for example, a big infrastructure program.   Richard Vague (00:28:03) - Well, it just never happens in Western developed economies. And one of the reasons it doesn't happen is the government issuance of debt does not increase the money supply by a nickel. If the government issues debt, it actually withdraws or shrinks the money supply because folks like you and me would buy the government security that reduces the number of deposits in the system. The government immediately turns around and spends exactly that amount. So the size of the money supply from government debt projects remains exactly the same. It doesn't increase.   Keith Weinhold (00:28:42) - Does that act, however, increase our total absolute amount of national debt, which is currently $35 trillion?   Richard Vague (00:28:51) - Of course it does. Absolutely. But the increase in our debt is money largely played to the households. So what normally happens is when the government's dead increases, household wealth increases by that amount or a greater amount. So take the pandemic. In a three year period, government debt increased by $8 trillion, which means its net worth declined by $1 trillion.   Richard Vague (00:29:18) - Well, households were the beneficiaries of that household net worth in that three year period increased by $30 trillion. So, you know, net net, of course it increases their debt, but it dollar for dollar typically increases household wealth.   Keith Weinhold (00:29:33) - That wealth effect can feel great for consumers and families in the short term. But doesn't increasing their income substantially in a short period of time drive up prices and create this debase purchasing power of the dollar?   Richard Vague (00:29:46) - If we got our little green eyed shades out and went to try to find examples of that, we got a database of 49 countries that constituted 91% of the world's GDP. We just wouldn't find examples of that. And in the US, it's very easy to measure that. The number you're looking for is GDP. And we don't really see big cuts in GDP. You know, a wild swing in GDP would be 3.5% versus 2.5%. That's not a factor in any observable way. And what happens in inflation.   Keith Weinhold (00:30:19) - Richard, the term that I think about with what's happened the past few years in this Covid wave of inflation is the word noticeable.   Keith Weinhold (00:30:27) - People don't really talk about it. Consumers, families, they don't talk about inflation much when it's near its fed 2% target until it becomes noticeable. And now it's so obvious with what you see at the grocery store. So it's really infiltrated the American psyche in a way that it didn't five years ago.   Richard Vague (00:30:45) - Inflation, even moderate inflation, is a highly consequential thing to the average American consumer. And two things happened to increase our inflation. Covid supply chains decimated supplies and kicked up prices. And then a second thing happened that was even more consequential. And that is Russia invaded Ukraine. And you had two countries that were, if you add them together among the largest providers or suppliers of oil and wheat, and almost instantly the price of oil and wheat and other goods skyrocketed. It was those two things, Covid, plus the invasion of Ukraine that drove our inflation up to 9% in June of 2022. Now, in July, it dropped to 3% and it stayed at 3% ever since. But we had already driven prices up in the prior year or two.   Richard Vague (00:31:49) - And those prices even though the increases have moderated, those prices haven't come down right.   Keith Weinhold (00:31:55) - Nor will.   Richard Vague (00:31:55) - They. Now we have, you know, the threat of war again. So, you know, the price of oil just touch $90. Again, I would argue that, you know, it's going to be hard to see inflation come down. Much for like that 3 to 4 range because of the geopolitical situation. And one other thing that I would suggest is holding up inflation. And that's the Federal Reserve's interest rate. You know, if inflation is a measure of how expensive things are, high interest rates make things more expensive, right?   Keith Weinhold (00:32:27) - It's an irony.   Richard Vague (00:32:28) - It's almost exactly the opposite of what the orthodoxy at the Federal Reserve studies or believed. For whatever reason, if you're at an in an apartment in the apartment owner has leveraged their purchase of the apartments by 50 or 70 or 90% and their interest bill goes up, guess what? They have to. Charge you higher rate. I think some meaningful component of the stubbornness of inflation relates directly to the Federal Reserve's persistent interest rates.   Richard Vague (00:33:00) - I think the best thing they could do would be to pull interest rates down 1 or 200 basis points.   Keith Weinhold (00:33:07) - Well, that's interesting because the fed funds rate is pretty close to their long term average, and we still got inflation higher than their target. So tell us more about what you think is the best way out of this somewhat higher inflationary environment that we're still in Richard.   Richard Vague (00:33:22) - Well two things. I think the geopolitical impact on oil prices is you. And I think the interest rate impact, particularly on real estate prices, is huge. Those are the two things holding up inflation. So if you wanted to improve inflation, you'd lower interest rates and then you'd run around the world trying to calm down these hot spots. And you'd have 2% inflation.   Keith Weinhold (00:33:47) - Coming from some people's point of view, including the Fed's. If you lower interest rates you would feel inflationary pressures. So then go ahead and debunk this because the conventional wisdom is when you lower interest rates. Oh well now for consumers, you don't incentivize them to save as much because they wouldn't be earning much interest.   Keith Weinhold (00:34:06) - And if rates to borrow become lower, then you're incentivizing more people to borrow and spend and run up prices in fuel the economy. So what's wrong with that model?   Richard Vague (00:34:16) - Well, there's no empirical support for it. In 1986, when inflation dropped to 2%, interest rates were in the highest interest rates had been coming down by, you know, almost a thousand basis points over the prior 3 or 4 years. Money supply growth was 9%. So the two things the fed says are most the biggest contributors to rising inflation were both amply present when inflation dropped to 2%. So I just can't find any data to support the Fed's theory. And by the way, that data is not esoteric. That data is really readily available. You and I can go look at it. It's not a complicated equation. But over the last 40 years, in what at the age I call the great debt explosion, aggregate debt and the economy in 1981 was 125% of GDP. Today it's 260% of GDP and almost that entire 40 something year span.   Richard Vague (00:35:21) - Inflation and interest rates went down. Somebody, somewhere is going to have to show me the evidence for me to believe what the fed is canonical, which is almost a sacred balloon.   Keith Weinhold (00:35:33) - Well, that's a good look at history. In fact, something I say on the show often is let's look at history. And what really happens over having a hunch on how we think that things should proceed. You mentioned some inflation figures there. Why don't we wrap up inflation? Richard was talking about today's inflation measures. We've got the producer price index, the PPI, the widely cited CPI, which I recognize what you were stating earlier. And then of course there's the Fed's preferred measure, the core PCE, the core personal consumption expenditures. Richard, it's also funny to me when any measure is called core, it's core when they remove the food and energy inputs because those things are said to be too volatile. And of course, not only is food and energy essential, but what's more core than that? So perhaps the core rate should be called the peripheral rate.   Keith Weinhold (00:36:22) - But in any case, do you have any comments on the measures of inflation that are used today?   Richard Vague (00:36:28) - It's like you say, it's everything you just mentioned and more, because they're not just core inflation. There's something called super core, which I think is probably even more peripheral. Right. And I like your terminology better than the Fed's, but there's a lot of things to look at right now. They're all kind of coalescing around this at a low to mid 3% range. We got a new number coming out. It'll probably, you know here in the next few days. And it'll probably be a little bit higher than the last number, but we're talking about the difference to a 3.3% and 3.5%. And to me there's no difference between those two numbers. We were at 9%, as we just said, in June of 2022. And we're at a moderate level of inflation now after having suffered a rise in prices. It's not going to disappear. It's not fun, it's not comfortable, but it's moderate rabble.   Richard Vague (00:37:22) - It's not a big drought.   Keith Weinhold (00:37:24) - What's the right level of inflation in your opinion?   Richard Vague (00:37:28) - Okay. Anything fundamentally wrong with the the 2% number that the fed saw I think, you know, at 3 to 4% were probably on the high end of, of what might be considered acceptable. But again, it's not the fact that it's 3% that's the problem. It's the fact that it was 6 to 9% for a couple of years. Yeah, that's the problem. It'll get take a while for everything to adjust to that. In the meantime, you know, with all bets are all that you know, there's if these wars get further out of control and we see 90, $200 oil prices again, we're only about we're 50% more efficient users of oil today than were were in the 1970s. We're still a little bit over dependent.   Keith Weinhold (00:38:11) - Here at gray. I espouse how in everyday investor they can do more than merely hedge themselves against inflation, much like a homeowner with no mortgage would merely hedge themselves. But you can actually profit from inflation with a term that I've trademarked as the Inflation Triple Crown.   Keith Weinhold (00:38:27) - I'd like to know what you think about it. The inflation Triple Crown means that you win with inflation three ways at the same time, and all that you need to do in order to make that happen is get a fixed rate mortgage on an income property. The asset price increase is the inflation hedge. The debt debasement on your mortgage loan, that's an inflation profiting center. Is inflation debases that down while the tenant makes the payment. And then thirdly, now rents might only track inflation, but your cash flow is actually a profit center over time too because it outpaces inflation. Since as the investor your biggest monthly expense that principal and interest stays fixed and inflation cannot touch that. That's the inflation triple Crown. It's available to almost anyone. You don't need any degree, your certification or real estate license. What are your thoughts on that? Profiting from inflation the way we do here I think you're absolutely correct.   Richard Vague (00:39:22) - And I think you put it very, very well. And that's not just a trend at the individual property level.   Richard Vague (00:39:28) - We studied macroeconomics and we look at aggregate real estate values. And frankly, real estate values rise as debt to GDP rises. The more money there is, the more my dollars are chasing real estate and the higher real estate prices will go. So it's absolutely been the gin to put it into numbers in 1980 household. Well, this a percent of GDP was about 350%. Today it's almost 600% most household wealth that in the form of just two things real estate and stocks in somewhat equal measure, that's 80 or 90% of also. Well, so if you wanted to make money over the last 40 years and presumably over the next 40 real estate, one of the two places you could go.   Keith Weinhold (00:40:24) - Well, Richard, as we wind down here, you run a group that predicts financial crises. So I'd be remiss to let you go without asking you about it. We've had a prolonged inverted yield curve, and that's been a terrific track record as a recession predictor. Is a financial crisis imminent? Tell us your thoughts.   Richard Vague (00:40:41) - No, it's not. The predictor of financial crises is a rapid rise in private sector debt in ratio to GDP. We saw it skyrocket in the mid 2000 and we got a crisis in zero eight. We saw it skyrocket in the 1980s and we got the crisis in 87. We saw it skyrocket in Japan in the late 1980s. And you got the crisis of the 90s. We saw it skyrocketed in the 1920s and we got the Great Depression. That is the predictor. You know, we've studied that across major economies over 200 years. There really are exceptions to that as it relates to financial crises. Our numbers right now on the private debt side have been very flat, and they've really been very flat since 2008. They actually got a little bit better in that period, and they've been very flat over the last few years. We're not looking at a financial crisis in the United States. Other parts can't say that China is looking at a they're well into a massive real estate crisis there. We see companies there crumbling, declaring bankruptcy.   Richard Vague (00:41:53) - That's because they've had runaway private sector debt in China for the last ten years. And there's a few other countries that are facing that as well.   Keith Weinhold (00:42:02) - A lot of Chinese overbuilding there during that run up to, well, if you, the follower, are into using history over hunches to help you predict the future, Richard Baig really is a terrific resource for that, as you can tell. So, Richard, why don't you let our audience know how they can follow you and learn more?   Richard Vague (00:42:22) - You're so kind to say those words. We hope we provide something of value. You can get our weekly video if you go to join Dot Tycho's group.org and Tycho's is spelled E, ICOs, ICOs group. Or we send out a weekly five minute video because if you're like me, you have a short attention span and brevity is the soul of wit. I also have a book that came out recently called The Paradox of Debt. Yeah. Which, you know, covers a lot of the themes we've talked about here. You know, it'd be an honor to have anyone to pick up either.   Keith Weinhold (00:42:58) - Well, Richard, it's been a terrific discussion on both population decline and inflation. It's been great having you back on the show.   Richard Vague (00:43:05) - You have a great show. It's a privilege to be part of it. Thank you very much.   Keith Weinhold (00:43:15) - Yeah, big thanks to Richard Vague. Today he hits things from a different angle. With population decline perhaps not taking place in the US until the year 2100. Of course, we need to add years to that. Real estate investors might not have falling population growth in that crucial household formation demographic age. Then until the year 2125, well, that would be 100 more years of growth from this point. And yeah, I pushed him on our inflation chart somewhat. Richard isn't the first person, though I have heard others maintain that lower interest rates also lower inflation, where most tend to believe that the opposite is true, including the fed. In any case, wars drive inflation because they create supply shortages. That was true over 100 years ago when World War one and today with Russia, Ukraine.   Keith Weinhold (00:44:17) - I mean, is there any one factor that drives price increases more than supply shortages? The short supply of real estate itself is what keeps driving prices. And Richard asks us to look where some don't. That is that real estate values rise as debt to GDP rises. In his opinion, there is no financial crisis imminent. We need to see a rapid rise in private sector debt in proportion to GDP first. And you know what's remarkable about this economic slowdown or recession that still hasn't come, but it's been erroneously predicted by so many. It's the fact that recessions are often self-fulfilling prophecies. People have called on a recession for the last year or two. And that mere forecast alone that tends to make real estate investors think, well, then I won't buy the property because my tenant might lose their job in a recession. And businesses don't hire when everyone says a recession is coming. That's exactly how a recession becomes self-fulfilling. And despite two years of that, it still hasn't happened. That's what's remarkable. Anyone sitting on the sideline keeps losing out again.   Keith Weinhold (00:45:37) - You can follow Richard. Big Tycho's is spelled Tycho's. Follow a joint Tycho's group.org. Richard and I talked some more outside of our interview here, and he had a lot of compliments about the show. In fact, more compliments than any guest has given in a while. He had not heard of our show before last year. I'm in Philadelphia somewhat regularly and I might hit him up the next time I'm there. We'll get lunch or something. Check out Gray in Spanish at Get Rich education comma. Espanyol. Thank you for tuning in today where our episode was Bigger Picture education. Next week's show will be substantially more hands on real estate. I'm Keith Wayne a little bit. Don't quit your day dream.   Speaker 5 (00:46:24) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold (00:46:52) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

First-time guest and recent DU Canada postdoctoral researcher, Dr. Sarah Gutowsky, joins Dr. Mike Brasher for a trip around the world studying birds, leading polar expeditions, and an immersive life in science and conservation. Having visited some of Earth's most remote and inaccessible locations, including Midway Atoll in the North Pacific, Wrangel Island in the Chukchi Sea, the Kuril Islands and the Sea of Okhotsk, Tristan da Cunha and Gough Island in the South Atlantic, Kerguelen in the southern Indian Ocean, and the New Zealand sub-Antarctic Islands, Sarah brings a view of the wonder and expansiveness of our planet that few possess. What advice does she have for others seeking a similar career, what was it like to meet “Wisdom,” the oldest known wild bird on Earth, was being seasick for 2 consecutive weeks worth the payoff, and what did we learn from her recent research on common eiders and harlequin ducks? See for yourself why we've dubbed Sarah our “ornithological badass.”www.ducks.org/DUPodcast

Well, here it is— a look back on what has been referred to as “one of the worst hunting seasons in memory.” Co-hosts Chris Jennings and Dr. Mike Brasher are joined by Jim Ronquest, Vice President of Development for Drake Waterfowl, to discuss the season from start to finish, north to south, and east to west. Numerous factors conspired to make the 2023-24 season a challenging one for even the most seasoned hunters, including low breeding populations, El Nino, widespread drought, limited snowfall, record low ice cover, and temperature swings from record warmth to record cold. As one season ends another begins, and the group looks ahead to dry conditions on the prairies and what is needed to turn things around.

Population rates struggle where marriage and family are not viewed as a key foundation to livelihood.  __________ Learn more about the Identity Project at identityproject.tv. For a special discount this month enter BREAKPOINT at checkout.

With birth rates falling, the worldwide human population is getting older and smaller. According to traditional thinking, this spells a future of labor shortages, bankrupt social security systems and overall economic collapse. Before you panic about the end of life as we know it, political demographer Jennifer D. Sciubba has a thoughtful playbook for managing the new normal — including ideas on the future of work and migration — and a reminder that a resilient future relies on present-day action.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyGoogleTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.China's Soybean Demand Decline:

With birth rates falling, the worldwide human population is getting older and smaller. According to traditional thinking, this spells a future of labor shortages, bankrupt social security systems and overall economic collapse. Before you panic about the end of life as we know it, political demographer Jennifer D. Sciubba has a thoughtful playbook for managing the new normal – including ideas on the future of work and migration – and a reminder that a resilient future relies on present-day action.

With birth rates falling, the worldwide human population is getting older and smaller. According to traditional thinking, this spells a future of labor shortages, bankrupt social security systems and overall economic collapse. Before you panic about the end of life as we know it, political demographer Jennifer D. Sciubba has a thoughtful playbook for managing the new normal – including ideas on the future of work and migration – and a reminder that a resilient future relies on present-day action.

The population is going to decrease soon. Different studies predict that it will peak within our lifetime and decrease or stabilize for the first time in recorded history. This is existentially scary for many corporations and some politicians, but some scientists and demographers think it could be a solution to mall of our problems? The science of population is fascinating so LEZZZZ GOHH!!!!WDWLTW:FOMO and having kidsDoes India have more people than China?STUDYTIME: Population decrease - how bad is it going to get? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.