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15 episodes with Phillips curve
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4 episodes with Phillips curve
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3 episodes with Phillips curve
3 episodes with Phillips curve
2 episodes with Phillips curve
Don and Tom dive into the human obsession with prediction—especially in finance—and why models fail us more than they help. They dissect the CAPE ratio, Fama vs. Shiller, and why “knowing” the market is a fool's errand. Listeners also get lessons on ETF pricing myths, market cap misunderstandings, SEP Roth IRAs (spoiler: they're basically unicorns), and whether dad deserves a gift or just more responsibilities. 0:04 We crave certainty—even though our money brains are terrible at prediction. 1:01 Wall Street's models exist to soothe our fear of the unknown. 1:34 “All models are wrong, but some are useful” — CAPE ratio vs. the real world. 2:39 Shiller vs. Fama: You can't time the market, even with a Nobel. 4:51 Why diversification, risk-based equity premiums, and low fees beat predictions. 5:24 Models work… until they don't (hello, Phillips Curve). 7:02 Why the inflation-unemployment link broke after 2000: China changed the game. 8:26 Let's admit it: You cannot accurately and consistently predict the future. 9:14 Call from Catherine: Why Schwab ETF prices are “low” (spoiler: stock splits). 11:31 Price per share means nothing. Market cap is what matters. 13:04 Berkshire never split its stock—why it's $731K a share. 14:24 Apple vs. Berkshire vs. Microsoft: Market cap is the real metric. 16:32 Why the Dow is dumb (and would be even dumber with Berkshire in it). 17:49 Listener Q: Where to park $450K before a home purchase? (Hint: not bonds.) 18:29 High-yield savings accounts are still the best move. 19:53 Father's Day preview: Don rants about dumb gifts and ungrateful kids. 21:19 Kiplinger's list: 5 ways dads can teach money lessons (cue sarcasm). 24:06 Allowances, budgeting, and tax talks with kids—realistic or fantasy? 25:28 Roth IRAs and investing lessons for teens: what actually works. 27:45 Why teaching kids to pick stocks is a dangerous myth. 29:38 “Graduation fund” idea: simple global ETFs like AVGE or DFAW. 30:43 Yes, your kids might move back in. Yes, it's happening again. 32:13 Listener Q: Can you open a Roth SEP IRA? (Short answer: not really yet.) 33:54 One firm offers it… but it'll cost you $500/year and it's shady. 35:20 Final caller: Are there any annuities we do like? (Answer: the shortest show ever.) 36:34 Program note: Tom gone for 2 weeks, Don wants your calls (or sympathy). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In “The Fed Deep Dive Pt. 4” we discuss the historical evolution of the Federal Reserve's power and priorities. During World War II, the Fed was essentially controlled by the Treasury, pegging interest rates low to finance war efforts, which later led to significant inflation. The 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord granted the Fed independence, allowing it to focus on managing the economy and fighting inflation. The 1970s brought the "Great Inflation," driven by government spending, oil shocks, and the flawed belief in the Phillips Curve, which suggested trading off inflation for lower unemployment. Congress established the Fed's dual mandate in 1977, requiring it to pursue maximum employment and stable prices.In 1979, Paul Volcker became Fed Chair and shifted the approach to combatting inflation by targeting the money supply instead of just interest rates, inspired by monetarist theory. This led to drastically high interest rates, reaching 20%, which induced recessions but successfully brought inflation down. The Volcker era emphasized price stability as the foundation for long-term economic health, and the Fed learned that prioritizing policy over political pressures is crucial. This history highlights the evolution of the Fed's role and the critical importance of its independence and focus on controlling inflation for overall economic stability.The big takeaway? ✨ The Fed learned that price stability is the foundation of everything else—jobs, growth, and economic confidence. ✨ And history shows us what happens when the Fed's priorities get steered by politics instead of policy.------------------------------------------------
In this episode, I sit down with Matthew Lysiak, a nationally recognized investigative journalist and author of Fiat Food: Why Inflation Destroyed Our Health and How Bitcoin Fixes It. Together, we unpack how inflation has silently undermined our health. ––– Offers & Discounts –––
Clara E. Mattei on the relation between austerity, fascism and authoritarian liberalism. Clara's book is out in German! Find it here: Die Ordnung des Kapitals: Wie Ökonomen die Austerität erfanden und dem Faschismus den Weg bereiteten. Brumaire Verlag. https://shop.jacobin.de/bestellen/clara-mattei-die-ordnung-des-kapitals Shownotes Clara E. Mattei's website: https://www.claramattei.com/ Center for Heterodox Economics (CHE) at the University of Tulsa, Oklahoma: https://sites.utulsa.edu/chetu/ CHE's YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@CHE-tulsa Mattei, C. E. (2022). The Capital Order: How Economists Invented Austerity and Paved the Way to Fascism. University of Chicago Press. https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/C/bo181707138.html the german translation: Mattei, C. E. (2025). Die Ordnung des Kapitals: Wie Ökonomen die Austerität erfanden und dem Faschismus den Weg bereiteten. Brumaire Verlag. https://shop.jacobin.de/bestellen/clara-mattei-die-ordnung-des-kapitals on „Derisking“: Amarnath, S., Brusseler, M., Gabor, D., Lala, C., Mason, JW (2023). Varieties of Derisking. Phenomenal World. https://www.phenomenalworld.org/interviews/derisking/ on “DOGE” (Department of Government Efficiency): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Department_of_Government_Efficiency on the new german “Sondervermögen” to invest in rearmament and infrastructure: https://www.dw.com/en/germany-set-to-spend-big-on-army-and-infrastructure/a-71834527 on the 1920 International Financial Conference in Brussels: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brussels_International_Financial_Conference_(1920) on the 1922 Economic and Financial Conference in Genoa: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genoa_Economic_and_Financial_Conference_(1922) on Google's contract with the IDF: https://www.theverge.com/2025/1/22/24349582/google-israel-defense-forces-idf-contract-gaza Benanav, A. (2022). Socialist Investment, Dynamic Planning, and the Politics of Human Need. Rethinking Marxism, 34(2), 193–204. https://doi.org/10.1080/08935696.2022.2051375 Sirianni, C. J. (1980). Workers' Control in the Era of World War I: A Comparative Analysis of the European Experience. Theory and Society, 9(1), 29–88. https://www.jstor.org/stable/656823 on the Landless Workers Movement in Brazil: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landless_Workers%27_Movement Braun, B. (2021) Central Bank Planning for Public Purpose. In: Fassin, D. and Fourcade, M. (eds.) Pandemic Exposures: Economy and Society in the Time of Coronavirus. HAU Books, pp. 105–121. https://benjaminbraun.org/assets/pubs/braun_central-bank-planning-public-purpose.pdf on the “Phillips Curve”: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_curve Arun K. Patnaik. (1988). Gramsci's Concept of Common Sense: Towards a Theory of Subaltern Consciousness in Hegemony Processes. Economic and Political Weekly, 23(5). https://www.jstor.org/stable/4378042 Thomas, P.D. (2015). Gramsci's Marxism: The ‘Philosophy of Praxis'. In: McNally, M. (eds.) Antonio Gramsci. Critical Explorations in Contemporary Political Thought. Palgrave Macmillan. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9781137334183_6 on the US Solidarity Economy: https://neweconomy.net/solidarity-economy/ the US Solidarity Economy Network: https://ussen.org/ the US Solidarity Economy Map and Directory: https://solidarityeconomy.us/ If you are interested in democratic economic planning, these resources might be of help: Democratic planning – an information website https://www.democratic-planning.com/ Sorg, C. & Groos, J. (eds.)(2025). Rethinking Economic Planning. Competition & Change Special Issue Volume 29 Issue 1. https://journals.sagepub.com/toc/ccha/29/1 Groos, J. & Sorg, C. (2025). Creative Construction - Democratic Planning in the 21st Century and Beyond. Bristol University Press. [for a review copy, please contact: amber.lanfranchi[at]bristol.ac.uk] https://bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/creative-construction International Network for Democratic Economic Planning https://www.indep.network/ Democratic Planning Research Platform: https://www.planningresearch.net/ Future Histories Episodes on Related Topics S03E24 | Grace Blakeley on Capitalist Planning and its Alternatives https://www.futurehistories.today/episoden-blog/s03/e24-grace-blakeley-on-capitalist-planning-and-its-alternatives/ Future Histories Contact & Support If you like Future Histories, please consider supporting us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/join/FutureHistories Contact: office@futurehistories.today Twitter: https://twitter.com/FutureHpodcast Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/futurehpodcast/ Mastodon: https://mstdn.social/@FutureHistories English webpage: https://futurehistories-international.com Episode Keywords #ClaraEMattei, #JanGroos, #Interview, #FutureHistories, #FutureHistoriesInternational, #futurehistoriesinternational, #Austerity, #CentralBanks, #Capitalism, #Fascism, #Economics, #NeoclassicalEconomics, #HeterodoxEconomics, #PluralEconomics, #State, #CapitalistState, #Markets, #History, #SolidarityEconomy, #AntonioGramsci, #Gramsci, #Investment, #DemocraticPlanning, #DemocraticEconomicPlanning, #Derisking, #PoliticalEconomy, #EconomicHistory, #AuthoritarianLiberalism, #EconomicThought, #EconomicDemocracy
Probably the scariest, most dreaded term in economics is stagflation. Those who lived through the crisis in the 1970s can attest to this. In short, stagflation is defined as a period of low-to-no economic growth combined with high unemployment and high inflation. It’s a deadly recipe that took extraordinary measures to break the last time we experienced this phenomenon, and the method used back then is still highly contested territory. If you’ve heard the term more often in recent months, it’s because some economists are beginning to fear a resurgence of stagflation due to the policies of the Trump administration. So today we’re doing a very deep dive into the economy to discuss the differences between now and the crisis of the ‘70s and show how Trump might be singlehandedly pushing us into an entirely new and preventable stagflation crisis. Chapters Intro: 00:01:00 The Phillips Curve: 00:03:34 Unemployment and Labor: 00:17:18 Trump's Conundrum: 00:20:05 Time to Rewind: 00:24:53 Lessons and Insights: 00:30:19 Post Show Musings: 00:42:28 Outro: 00:54:13 Resources Investopedia: What Is Stagflation, What Causes It, and Why Is It Bad? The New York Times: Strong Dollar vs. Weak Dollar Office of the Historian: Oil Embargo, 1973–1974 Federal Reserve History: The Great Inflation NBER: The Nixon Shock after Forty Years: The Import Surcharge Revisited Douglas A. Irwin Working Paper 17749 FRED: Personal Saving Rate FRED: New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started: Total Units FRED: Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Food in U.S. City Average BIG by Matt Stoller UNFTR Episode Resources Housing First: Non-Negotiable #1. The Energy Independence Myth. Building a Civilian Labor Corps: Bracing for the AI Job Apocalypse. Non-Negotiable #2. The Global Order of Money: How Exactly Does It Make the World Go ’Round? -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, TikTok and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Check out the UNFTR Pod Love playlist on Spotify: spoti.fi/3yzIlUP. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibility. Unf*cking the Republic is produced by 99 and engineered by Manny Faces Media (mannyfacesmedia.com). Original music is by Tom McGovern (tommcgovern.com). The show is hosted by Max and distributed by 99.Support the show: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/unftrSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel delivers a market and economic update for October 17th. The Dow showed a positive gain of 161 points, while the S&P and Nasdaq remained flat. Interest rates saw a slight increase, with the 10-year Treasury note rising 7 basis points to 4.09%. Brian reviewed the latest economic news, including initial jobless claims at 241,000—below expectations, positive retail sales, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index showing improvement. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.25%, citing slow, yet non-recessionary growth. Inflation in Europe has fallen to 1.8%, while unemployment stands at a historically low 6.4%. Brian also discussed the Phillips Curve's relevance and addressed a reader's question on credit card fees and their impact on inflation. He wrapped up with a reminder about forthcoming housing market data and the Long Form Dividend Cafe report. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:43 Economic Data and Job Market Insights 01:25 Retail Sales and Manufacturing Updates 01:55 European Economic Conditions 02:25 Inflation and Unemployment Analysis 03:40 Credit Card Debt and Inflation 04:48 Conclusion and Upcoming Reports Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Jonathon Hazell is an assistant professor of economics at the London School of Economics and is a returning guest to the podcast. He rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about the costs of inflation, the Phillips curve Debate, and the lessons learned from the post-pandemic inflation surge. Transcript for this week's episode. Jonathon's Twitter: @JADHazell Jonathon's website Jonathon's LSE profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs* by Jonathon Hazell, Joao Guerreiro, Chen Lian, and Christina Patterson *Do Deficits Cause Inflation? A High Frequency Narrative Approach* by Jonathon Hazell and Stephan Hobler *Jonathon Hazell on Phillips Curves, Wage Rigidity, and How to Measure R-Star* by Macro Musings *The Dominant Role of Expectations and Broad-Based Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation* by Paul Beaudry, Chenyu Hou, and Franck Portier Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:05:27) – Breaking Down the Costs of Inflation (00:08:45) – *Why Do Workers Dislike Inflation? Wage Erosion and Conflict Costs* (00:21:12) – Outlining the Policy Implications (00:27:24) – The Recent Phillips Curve Conversation: What Have We Learned? (00:34:43) – *Do Deficits Cause Inflation? A High Frequency Narrative Approach* (00:46:39) – Navigating the Alternative Macroeconomics Perspectives (00:51:33) – Evaluating the Supply vs Demand Story for the Post-Pandemic Inflation (00:55:09) – Outro
Inflation's now at its lowest level in more than three years, so when's the interest rate cut coming? One factor the RBA is looking at is the unemployment rate which might need to rise before it acts. Today, chief business correspondent Ian Verrender on the old economic theory linking unemployment and inflation and his prediction on when interest rates will start to fall.Ian Verrender highlights the delay in the impact of interest rate changes, likening it to adjusting a shower's temperature. He discusses the Phillips Curve theory and its relevance to current economic conditions.Verrender predicts a possible rate cut before Christmas, emphasising the delicate balance the RBA must maintain.Featured: Ian Verrender, ABC Chief Business CorrespondentKey Topics:Inflation ratesInterest ratesUnemployment rateReserve Bank of Australia (RBA)Phillips Curve theoryCentral bank policiesMichele BullockAustralian economy
On Legal Docket, challenging regulations for small businesses; on Moneybeat, the jobs report and the Phillips Curve; and on the World History Book, Eric Liddell runs for gold. Plus, the Monday morning newsSupport The World and Everything in It today at wng.org/donate.Additional support comes from Ambassadors Impact Network, where entrepreneurs can discover faith-aligned funding opportunities. More at ambassadorsimpact.com
Mickey Levy is Chief Economist for the Americas and Asia for Berenberg Capital Markets, a Wall Street veteran, and a longstanding member of the Shadow Open Market Committee. He and his co-author, Charles Plosser, also have a new paper out titled, *The Fed's Strategic Approach to Monetary Policy Needs a Reboot.* Mickey joins David on Macro Musings to discuss this paper and its implications for the upcoming Federal Reserve framework review. David and Mickey also discuss the impact and importance of a flat Phillips curve, the Fed's policy mistakes in the wake of its new flexible average inflation targeting (FAIT) framework, recommendations for how the central bank should approach the next framework review, and much more. Transcript for this week's episode. Mickey's Twitter: @mickeylevy Mickey's website David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *The Fed's Strategic Approach to Monetary Policy Needs a Reboot* by Mickey Levy and Charles Plosser Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:01:50) – Mickey Levy's Career Path and Takeaways from the Most Recent Hoover Monetary Policy Conference (00:07:24) – What Shaped the First Framework Review? (00:11:56) – The Fed's Addition of “Symmetric” Inflation (00:16:32) – Price Level Drift, Deflationary Fears, and Inflation Expectations at the Fed (00:23:33) – The Impact and Importance of a Flat Phillips Curve (00:27:34) – Breaking Down the Elements of FAIT and the Fed's Policy Mistakes (00:42:11) – Recommendations for the Fed's Upcoming Framework Review (00:57:54) – Outro
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Barry Knapp on Twitter https://x.com/barryknapp?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:37) The Fed's Quadrilemma (09:46) The Fed's Views Of The Beveridge Curve and Phillips Curve (34:06) VanEck Ad (34:46) The Slow Death Of The Interbank Lending Market (AKA Fed Funds Market) (38:27) Fed Should Adopt Once More A "Bills-Only" Policy (43:21) Lehman: A Retrospective (48:47) Fannie & Freddie's Role In Facilitating The Growth Of Subprime Securitized Products (50:46) Moral Hazard In The Banking System Before The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 (01:02:48) Lehman's Biggest Exposure Was Commercial Real Estate (CRE & CMBS), Not Subprime Residential (RMBS) __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Gauti Eggertsson is a professor of economics at Brown University and is the author of several recent papers on the causes of the 2021-22 inflation surge and the lessons to be drawn from it for monetary policy going forward. Gauti is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he rejoins the show to talk about these papers and their findings. Specifically, David and Gauti discuss the role of the Fed's FAIT framework in the post-pandemic inflation surge, the return of the non-linear Phillips curve, the merits of nominal GDP targeting and average nominal output targeting, Gauti's policy suggestions for the Fed, and a lot more. Transcript for this week's episode. Gauti's Twitter: @GautiEggertsson Gauti's website Gauti's Brown University profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *The Inflation Surge of the 2020s: The Role of Monetary Policy* by Gauti Eggertsson and Donald Kohn *It's Baaack: The Surge in Inflation in the 2020s and the Return of the Non-Linear Phillips Curve* by Pierpaolo Benigno and Gauti Eggertsson *The Slanted-L Phillips Curve* by Pierpaolo Benigno and Gauti Eggertsson *A Toolkit for Solving Models with a Lower Bound on Interest Rates of Stochastic Duration* by Gauti Eggertsson, Sergey Egiev, Alessandro Lin, Josef Platzer, and Luca Riva *The Fed's New Policy Framework: A Major Improvement but More Can Be Done* by Gauti Eggertsson, Sergey Egiev, Alessandro Lin, Josef Platzer, and Luca Riva *The Princeton School and the Zero Lower Bound* by Scott Sumner *Temporary Price-Level Targeting: An Alternative Framework for Monetary Policy* by Ben Bernanke
Jonathon Hazell is an assistant professor of economics at the London School of Economics. Jonathon joins Macro Musings to talk about Phillips curves, R-stars, and nominal wage rigidity. Specifically, Jonathon and David also discuss the how to view the recent inflation experience, how to measure the natural rate using natural experiments, the downward nature of wage rigidity, and a lot more. Transcript for this week's episode. Jonathon's Twitter: @JADHazell Jonathon's website Jonathon's LSE profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *The Natural Rate of Return on Capital: Replication Package* by Jonathon Hazell, Veronica Backer-Peral, and Atif Mian *The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence From US States* by Jonathon Hazell, Juan Herreno, Emi Nakamura, and Jon Steinsson *Measuring the Natural Rate Using Natural Experiments* by Veronica Backer-Peral, Jonathon Hazell, and Atif Mian *Downward Rigidity in the Wage for New Hires* by Jonathon Hazell and Bledi Taska *National Wage Setting* by Jonathon Hazell, Christina Patterson, Heather Sarsons, and Bledi Taska *The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: Is Wage Stickiness the Answer?* by Christopher Pissarides
THE TIM JONES AND CHRIS ARPS SHOW 0:00 SEG 1 AOC grilled Jerome Powell of The Fed back in 2019 about the Phillips Curve and inflation | Are electric vehicles the future? Today's Speaker's Stump Speech is brought to you by https://www.hansenstree.com/ and is about the most overrated and underrated politicians of all time 17:40 SEG 2 Everett Jones, Owner of Jones Air and Water, talks about small business | Why it's best to do a Radon test when it snows | Air and Water System for half the price if you contact Everett in December https://joneswater.com/ 32:34 SEG 3 Hunter was flying on Marine One on taxpayer dollars | Greg Abbott enforcing the border in Texas https://newstalkstl.com/ FOLLOW TIM - https://twitter.com/SpeakerTimJones FOLLOW CHRIS - https://twitter.com/chris_arps 24/7 LIVESTREAM - http://bit.ly/newstalkstlstream RUMBLE - https://rumble.com/NewsTalkSTL See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Steve Forbes warns that the Federal Reserve's continued fidelity to a pernicious economic theory called the Phillips Curve means more pain is coming to the U.S. economy.Steve Forbes shares his What's Ahead Spotlights each Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates They were all lovey-dovish last month in pausing rate hikes, then last week suddenly they're all hawks again. What changed? It wasn't the economy nor the economic data derived from it. The Fed's entire worldview is exposed when markets diverge from policymakers' preferred path. From rate hikes to the Phillips Curve, there is no basis for what central bankers do...accept to manipulate public opinion.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisChair Jerome H. Powell At "Monetary Policy Challenges in a Global Economy," a policy panel at the 24th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference, hosted by the International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20231109a.htmNBER: IT'S BAAACK: THE SURGE IN INFLATION IN THE 2020S AND THE RETURNOF THE NON-LINEAR PHILLIPS CURVEhttps://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31197/w31197.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
Ed Nelson is a senior advisor in the Monetary Affairs Division of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Ed has also previously been a professor of economics at the University of Sydney and has worked at the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank as well as the Bank of England. Most importantly, however, Ed was also a former student of, and co-author with, the late Bennett McCallum, and he rejoins David for this special live episode of Macro Musings to talk about Bennett McCallum's life, his work, and his legacy within the field of monetary economics. Check out the entirety of the Bennett McCallum Monetary Policy Conference! Transcript for this week's episode. Ed's website Ed's Federal Reserve profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!
On this week's episode of the Unnatural Selection Podcast, we discuss: Gurner Group founder Tim Gurner tells the Financial Review Property Summit workers have become "arrogant" since COVID and "We've got to kill that attitude." Background on the Phillips Curve and the RBA's Modelling Approach. AOC takes aim at multimillionaire Australian property developer who wants unemployment to jump. ‘He didn't mean you': Manager to staff at Gurner's wellness business Qantas loses High Court appeal over sacking of 1,700 baggage handlers and cleaners during COVID-19 pandemic. Housing Australia Future Fund set to pass parliament after deal with Greens. North Korea's Kim Jong Un vows full support for Russia's 'just fight' after viewing launchpads with Vladimir Putin. Unpacking five key claims from Jacinta Price's National Press Club address on the voice. Outrage in Spain after man touches journalist's bottom during broadcast. The Unnatural Selection podcast is produced by Jorge Tsipos, Adam Direen and Tom Heath. Visit the Unnatural Selection website at www.UnnaturalShow.com for stuff and things. The views expressed are those of the hosts and their guests and do not reflect those of any other entities. Unnatural Selection is a show made for comedic purposes and should not be taken seriously by anyone. Twitter: @JorgeTsipos @TomDHeath @UnnaturalShow Instagram: @JorgeTsipos @Tom.Heath @UnnaturalShow
Joe Gagnon is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and was formerly a senior staffer at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Joe is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he rejoins the podcast to talk about Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Specifically, Joe and David talk about the future direction of r star, what current inflationary trends mean for the Phillips curve, the Fed's commitment to a two percent inflation target, and a lot more. Transcript for this week's episode. Register now for the Bennett McCallum Monetary Policy Conference! Joe's Twitter: @GagnonMacro Joe's PIIE profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve Around the World* by Joe Gagnon, Kristin Forbes, and Christopher Collins *Fed Chair Powell's Message in Jackson Hole: Two Means Two* by David Wilcox *Why the Era of Historically Low Interest Rates Could Be Over* by Nick Timiraos
When economists and policymakers talk about getting inflation under control, there's an assumption they often make: bringing inflation down will probably result in some degree of layoffs and job loss. But that is not the way things have played out since inflation spiked last year. Instead, so far, inflation has come down, and unemployment has stayed low.So where does the idea of this tradeoff – between inflation and unemployment – come from? That story starts in the 1940s, with a soft-spoken electrical engineer-turned-crocodile hunter-turned-economist named Bill Phillips. Phillips was consumed by the notion that there are underlying forces at work in the economy. He thought that if macroeconomists could only understand how those forces work, they could keep the economy stable.On today's show, how the Phillips Curve was born, why it went mainstream, and why universal truths remain elusive in macroeconomics. This episode was hosted by Willa Rubin and Nick Fountain, and produced by Sam Yellowhorse Kesler. It was edited by Molly Messick, and engineered by Maggie Luthar. Sierra Juarez checked the facts. Help support Planet Money and get bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.
Join us Friday Sept 1 for a free webinar. Register at the link below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/eurodollaruniversity#recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #liquidity #yieldcurve #jacksonehole #unemployment #employment JOLTS for July jolted the heck out of the soft landing narrative and for very good reasons. To begin with, why the soft landing view has become so widespread. It isn't necessarily what you might think. We have to dig up the current increasingly absurd version of the Phillips Curve to find out. We also have to be aware of just how close the US economy might be to the recession cliff, savings, student loans and now maybe jobs, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisJay Powell Press Conference July 26, 2023https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20230726.pdfJay Powell Jackson Hole August 25, 2023, Inflation: Progress and the Path Aheadhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20230825a.htmFRBSF: Excess No More? Dwindling Pandemic Savingshttps://www.frbsf.org/our-district/about/sf-fed-blog/excess-no-more-dwindling-pandemic-savings/Benigno & Eggertson, NBER: IT'S BAAACK: THE SURGE IN INFLATION IN THE 2020S AND THE RETURN OF THE NON-LINEAR PHILLIPS CURVEhttps://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31197/w31197.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityhttps://www.marketsinsiderpro.comhttps://www.PortfolioShield.netRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7THE EPISODESYouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLVurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MReason: https://bit.ly/3lt5NiHSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39XjrPodcastRepublic:https://bit.ly/3LH8JlVDISCLOSURESJeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
Ricardo Reis is a professor of economics at the London School of Economics and is the co-author of a new book titled, *A Crash Course on Crises: Macroeconomic Concepts for Run-ups, Collapses, and Recoveries.* Ricardo is also a previous guest of Macro Musings and he rejoins the podcast to talk about his new book as well as his overall assessment of the inflation surge of the past few years. David and Ricardo specifically discuss what constitutes a bubble, the Eurozone crisis as a story of capital inflows and misallocation, shadow banking and systemic risk during the 2008 financial crisis, Ricardo's view of the Phillips curve, and a lot more. Transcript for this week's episode. Ricardo's Twitter: @R2Rsquared Ricardo's LSE profile Ricardo's website David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! *A Crash Course on Crises: Macroeconomic Concepts for Run-Ups, Collapses, and Recoveries* by Ricardo Reis and Markus Brunnermeier *Ricardo Reis on Central Bank Swap Lines, Fiscal Sustainability, and Outlooks for Inflation* by Macro Musings
George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute. George is also a frequent guest on Macro Musings, and he rejoins the podcast to talk about some of the recent developments in the monetary and financial policy space. Specifically, David and George discuss the history and present developments surrounding FedNow, the future of real-time payments, how to revise the Fed's operating system, whether the Fed is currently delivering on a soft landing, and a lot more. Transcript for this week's episode. George's Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George Cato Institute profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *George Selgin on False Dawn: The New Deal and the Promise of Recovery* by Macro Musings *Getting Up From the Floor* by Claudio Borio *Opening a Federal Reserve Account* by Julie Hill *From Cannabis to Crypto: Federal Reserve Discretion in Payments* by Julie Hill *Fiscal Arithmetic and the Global Inflation Outlook* by Peder Beck-Friis and Richard Clarida
Debanking is here. Zach Abraham joins. Biden says we've cured cancer as we know it! We could say that he's just misspoken, but at what point is it just outright lies? Just as his regulations against gas appliances harm the common man, the increased focus on the Phillips Curve could take us into an even darker recession. In addition, as the American people face the reality of today's economy, the state of California begins its campaign to destroy four dams along the Klamath River, making way for further economic breakdown. We also discuss debanking as an apparent blind eye is turned when law abiding citizens are told their opinions are bothersome or are debanked without reason. Zach Abraham, Chief Investment Officer Bulwark Capital Management, joins us as we dive into these topics.What does God's Word say? What does it mean that God chooses the foolish things to confound the wise (1 Corinthians 1:27)?Episode 988 Links:Biden says he cured cancer. “We ended cancer as we know it.” REPORTER: "We've seen Biden go after gas stoves, A/C units with regulation, refrigerators, washing machines, dishwashers — now water heaters. How many more home appliances will Americans eventually have to replace?" KJP: "If it is enacted, it would not take into effect until 2029. So, let's not forget that."“I confidently predict the FCA will look at this and say ‘Nothing to look at here'” -- “it is reasonable that law abiding citizens can be de-banked and become non-people?” Banking analyst Frances Coppola and Nigel Farage dispute Coutts approach California is now spending a half-billion dollars to destroy 4 dams on Klamath River—as a record snowmelt goes out to sea due to insufficient reservoir storage. Another symptom of Decivilization—the systematic dismantling of all that brought us security and prosperity.EPA's Power Grid Assumptions Are Disconnected From RealityThe Fed's Risky Focus on the Phillips Curve Could PLUNGE Us into a Darker Recession!4Patriots https://4patriots.com Protect your family with Food kits, solar generators and more at 4Patriots. Use code TODD for 10% off your first purchase. Alan's Soaps https://alanssoaps.com/TODD Use coupon code ‘TODD' to save an additional 10% off the bundle price. BiOptimizers https://magbreakthrough.com/todd Use promo code TODD for 10% off your order. Bonefrog https://bonefrog.us Enter promo code TODD at checkout to receive 10% off your subscription. Bulwark Capital http://KnowYourRiskRadio.com Find out how Bulwark Capital Actively Manages risk. Call 866-779-RISK or visit KnowYourRiskRadio.com Patriot Mobile https://patriotmobile.com/herman Get free activation today with offer code HERMAN. Visit or call 878-PATRIOT. RuffGreens https://ruffgreens.com/todd Get your FREE Jumpstart Trial Bag of Ruff Greens, simply cover shipping. Visit or call 877-MYDOG-64. SOTA Weight Loss https://sotaweightloss.com SOTA Weight Loss is, say it with me now, STATE OF THE ART! Sound of Freedom https://angel.com/freedom Join the two million and see Sound of Freedom in theaters July 4th. GreenHaven Interactive https://greenhaveninteractive.com Digital Marketing including search engine optimization and website design.
Steve Forbes calls out the Federal Reserve's continued fealty to the Phillips Curve in advance of his meeting tomorrow, and warns against the Fed's attempt to influence economic growth and manipulate interest rates.Steve Forbes shares his What's Ahead Spotlights each Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Texas-based hedge fund manager J. Kyle Bass, the founder and chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management and founder of private equity firm Conservation Equity Management, joins Julia La Roche for a wide-ranging discussion on macro, geopolitics, and the rising threat of China. 0:00 Intro 0:35 ‘Out of body experience' meeting with former central bankers, academics 3:30 Fed is ‘completely out of touch with reality' 5:30 This has nothing to do with the Phillips Curve 6:58 Chain-weighting inflation 9:57 Frictions in society 12:15 Heading toward a recession 14:15 Commercial real estate 19:22 Yellen's trip to China 26:00 Wall Street greed 21:03 Is the business community waking up? 26:20 Exposure to China 28:00 Risk of invading Taiwan 30:00 Talk about what Xi Jinping says 34:00 Should be ringing alarm bells about China 38:00 Need peace through strength 41:00 Economic War Department is needed 44:00 We sit at a hinge in history right now
#interestrates hikers and #centralbank hawks ignore failed #banks in favor of wages, Phillips Curve, and #inflation expectations. They believe the #economy has gone retro and we're stuck in 1978 when more and more each day looks too much like 2008. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van MetreSpeech by Governor Christopher J. Wallerhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20230616a.htmBloomberg: Fed's Barkin Comfortable Doing More to Slow Resilient US Economyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-16/fed-s-barkin-comfortable-doing-more-to-slow-resilient-us-economyTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityhttps://www.marketsinsiderpro.comhttps://www.PortfolioShield.netRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7THE EPISODESYouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLVurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MReason: https://bit.ly/3lt5NiHSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39XjrPodcastRepublic:https://bit.ly/3LH8JlVDISCLOSURESJeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.
Chris Hughes is a senior fellow at the Institute on Race, Power, and Political Economy at The New School, and he is also the co-founder of the Economic Security Project and a senior advisor at the Roosevelt Institute. Previously, he was also the publisher of The New Republic and is a co-founder of Facebook. Chris joins Macro Musings to talk about his work on Arthur Burns' tenure as Fed Chair and the lessons we can learn from it as applied to today's inflation experience. Specifically, David and Chris also discuss Arthur Burns' view of the economy and inflation, how his perspective on business psychology impacted these views, Burns' view of fiscal and industrial policy as a tool for combating inflation, and a lot more. Transcript for this week's episode. Chris's Twitter: @chrishughes Chris's website David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Rethinking Arthur Bruns, the “Worst” Fed Chair in History* by Chris Hughes *Digital Dollars: Critical Design Choices and Effects of a Central Bank Digital Currency* by Chris Hughes
In this episode I discussed in detail why I feel everything our community has learned about money is wrong and provide action items to protect your finances. I also discussed the Phillips Curve which is an economic theory and how it relates to the current economic conditions. I shared the latest crypto and blockchain news including the reasons why we need to get our crypto off the exchanges. Please share this week's important shows with your Family & Friends. Please visit AheadOfTheCryptoCurve.com
After a long series of rate hikes, Fed officials and asset markets are expecting a long series of interest rate cuts. This is based on the tried and hue Phillips Curve analysis. In color theory, "hue" is the technical appearance of color that can be described mechanically as a number. Let's hope interest rate expectations are not being distorted by other factors of reality, and that current Phillips Curve model perceptions of hue are also true. Be sure to follow Minor Issues at Mises.org/MinorIssues.
In this episode of The Vivek Show, host Vivek Ramaswamy welcomes Rich Lowrie, an economic advisor to Herman Cain's presidential campaign, to discuss the complexities of economic growth. The conversation covers GDP as a measure of success, the impact of dollar volatility on economic productivity, and the rise of the managerial class. Rich Lowrie emphasizes the importance of a stable unit of measure and the need for more business investment. He also critiques the Federal Reserve's policies and their effects on wage growth and the striving majority.--Donate here: https://t.co/PE1rfuVBmbFor more content follow me here:Twitter - @VivekGRamaswamyInstagram - @vivekgramaswamyFacebook - http://facebook.com/VivekGRamaswamyTruth Social - @VivekRamaswamyRumble - @VivekRamaswamy--Time-codes:00:00: Introduction and the importance of economic growth01:00 Rich Lowrie shares his background and interest in economic growth01:36: Emphasis on economic growth in solving problems03:30 Discussion on the belief that consumption drives GDP10:37: The importance of a stable unit of measure for economic productivity14:52: The impact of dollar volatility on economic productivity20:09: Rise of the managerial class and the shift in focus to labor markets24:00: Critique of the Federal Reserve's control over the money supply30:22: Discussion on the Federal Reserve's policies and their effect on meritocracy and wage growth.
It has become de rigeur in economics circles (word to the wise - always avoid such circles if you wish to retain your ability to think independently) to bemoan the death of the “Phillips Curve.” The Phillips Curve supposedly describes an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. "Supposedly”? In this succinct episode, the Inflation Guy explains why poor William Phillips' good name has been dragged through the mud unnecessarily. There is nothing wrong with his curve! In this podcast, the Inflation Guy refers to a chart. It's hard to see charts on audio, so here is a link to the chart in case you want to follow along: The Real Phillips Curve
Keynesians and fellow travelers hold the Phillips curve to be sacrosanct. But because the Phillips curve cannot establish causality, it is useless as economic theory. Original Article: "The Phillips Curve Is an Economic Fable" This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon.
Keynesians and fellow travelers hold the Phillips curve to be sacrosanct. But because the Phillips curve cannot establish causality, it is useless as economic theory. Original Article: "The Phillips Curve Is an Economic Fable" This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon.
On today's show we are talking about the fallout of Chairman Powell's testimony to the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday and the corresponding Senate committee on Tuesday. In his remarks, he reiterated that the Fed sees raising rates further in response to the unexpectedly strong employment, GDP and inflation numbers. On Tuesday, he said the central bank would consider raising the federal funds rate by a half-percentage-point later this month, leading investors to anticipate the larger rate rise. All of this analysis is based on the famous Phillips Curve that forms the basis of so much of Fed policy. Every time the Phillips curve is shown to have fundamental flaws, they tweak the model to try and take some new factor into account. But the same fundamental flaws exist. The basic premise that a tight labor market automatically puts too much negotiating power in the hands of employees is at the core of the financial model. But if we go back through history there is example after example where a tight labor market did not result in inflation. The conclusions drawn by Fed officials using the Phillips curve each and every time has been shown to be incorrect. ------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: podcast@victorjm.com
In today's episode for 10th February 2023, we explore the (ir)relevance of a popular economic theory from 1958.
George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute. George is also a frequent guest on Macro Musings and he rejoins the podcast to talk about some recent developments in the monetary and fiscal policy space. Specifically, David and George discuss new narratives around shadow banking and the financial crisis, the fiscal cost of large central bank balance sheets, the return of secular stagnation, and a lot more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. George's Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George's Cato profile David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here! Related Links: *A Monetary Policy Primer: Parts 1-12* by George Selgin *Why Shadow Banking Didn't Cause the Financial Crisis* by Norbert Michel *The Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet: Costs to Taxpayers of Quantitative Easing* by Andy Levin and Bill Nelson *The Monetary Executive* by Christina Parajon Skinner *Secular Stagnation is Not Over* by Olivier Blanchard *The Hard Road to a Soft Landing: Evidence from a (Modestly) Nonlinear Structural Model* by Randal Verbrugge and Saeed Zaman *Brazil and Argentina to Start Preparations for a Common Currency* by Michael Stott and Lucinda Elliott *Floor Systems for Implementing Monetary Policy: Some Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic* by Aleksander Berentsen, Christopher Waller, and Alessandro Marchesiani *Fallen Heroes: Central Banks Face Credibility Crisis as Losses Pile Up* by Johanna Treeck *SNB Will Shrink Balance Sheet After Record Loss, Citigroup Says* by Bastian Benrath *George Selgin on False Dawn: The New Deal and the Promise of Recovery* by Macro Musings
Portfolio Manager Jack Janasiewicz explains why divergences in global monetary policy could be a key differentiator for asset class returns in 2023.
Kathryn Rooney Vera, Bulltick Head of Research & Strategy, says she is still remaining defensive. Claudia Sahm, Sahm Consulting Founder & Former Federal Reserve Economist, explains why she thinks the Fed should ban the Phillips curve. Kristina Hooper, Invesco Chief Global Market Strategist, says we're getting back to a more normal environment. Helane Becker, Cowen Senior Research Analyst, says Southwest needs to cut back its ambitions. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
With inflation, getting consumer prices reasonable is just a side effect. The main goal is actually to fight consumer price index inflation. In today's episode, Mike Zlotnik shared the historical data that will help us make successful decisions, how the Federal Reserve is fighting inflation, and how they are getting the consumer price under control.Mike dove deeper into Fed history, the reason behind increasing rates, and how the Fed is pushing rates as a demand construction mechanism. He also spoke about why today is still a good time to invest, the cyclical markets he's in, and why he is continuing to buy into them. All these and more, so listen now and find out the only way the Fed is fighting inflation!Remember, this is your MBA. Have a notepad handy, and get ready to take some notes!Key Points from This Episode: The multiple funds Mike is managing right now. How did Mike's current environment affect him and what he is doing? Why should fund managers prefer over communication to under communication? Mike shares the markets he's successful with and the plays he did. Why investment decisions today shouldn't be driven by the short-term horizon. What is the role of the Federal Reserve? Mike shares his opinion on how long rates will continue to go up. The only way to fight inflation. Fed's goal: get the consumer price under control. How does Mike encourage real estate investors and people who are finding their next deal in the current state of the economy? Mike explains why you can still invest today. The idea of dollar-cost averaging. What are some examples of cyclical markets and why is Mike staying in them? Tweetables:“We allocate capital into the opportunities and we adjust with the market and the times. And now is one of these times where volatility is up and certainty is up, and we're certainly adjusting as well.” – Mike Zlotnik“We believe in quality information on a periodic basis. Instead of spending a ton of time just putting out noise, we're trying to provide valuable updates and information.” – Mike Zlotnik“There is a relationship between unemployment and inflation. When you have very low unemployment, inflation generally spikes. It's called the Phillips Curve.” – Mike Zlotnik“We provide updates to investors as much as we can without making this a continuous process of just updates, updates, updates. They need to generate returns.” – Mike Zlotnik“By sitting and waiting for perfect timing, you may miss the market.” – Mike ZlotnikLinks Mentioned:Big Mike Fund WebsiteMike Zlotnik on LinkedInAbout Mike ZlotnikMike Zlotnik has been a real estate investor since 2000. He started his career and had spent nearly 15 years in the information technology field managing Risk, Business Intelligence and Quality.While building a successful carrier in IT, Mike's passion has always been real estate investing because of its outcome predictability and well-understood risks.In 2009, Mike joined Tempo Funding, LLC (Mortgage Pool Fund) as a managing partner, and Vice President of funding operations.Starting from January 2014, Mike has assumed the responsibility of the CEO and has since founded TF Management Group, LLC, launching several new real estate investment funds, including but not limited to: TF Investment Fund II LLC (Income Fund), Tempo Opportunity Fund LLC (Growth & Income Fund) and Tempo Growth Fund LLC (Growth Fund). Under Mike's Leadership, the company has seen transformation and growth, delivering strong returns for their investors.
Joe Gagnon is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and was formerly a senior staffer at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Joe is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to take a look back on the past few years and to discuss his new paper on excess unemployment over the past 25 years. Specifically, David and Joe also discuss the movement of the natural rate of unemployment over time, alternative explanations for the flattening of the Phillips curve, policy implications for the Fed moving forward, and more. Transcript for the episode can be found here. Support the podcast by making a donation during this holiday season! Joe's PIIE profile Joe's Twitter: @GagnonMacro David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here! Related Links: *25 Years of Excess Unemployment in Advanced Economies: Lessons for Monetary Policy* by Joseph Gagnon and Madi Sarsenbayev *The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence form U.S. States* by Jonathon Hazell, Juan Herreno, Emi Nakamura, and Jon Steinsson *The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation* by George Akerlof, William Dickens, and George Perry *Measuring Monetary Policy: the NGDP Gap* by David Beckworth
On today's show we are talking about inflation and whether higher interest rates will even help. When you listen to Fed chairman Powell speak, he spends a lot of time talking about inflation expectations. In fact, he mentions inflation expectations as being anchored in virtually every speech. So what is this anchoring of expectations and does it even matter? There was a paper published in May of this year by two economists who work for the Fed. Jae Sim and David Ratner wrote a paper entitled, “Who Killed the Phillips Curve? A Murder Mystery”. In order to understand the paper we first need to describe the Phillips curve. The Phillips curve has longstanding model of inflation and employment, and perhaps the central model underpinning the Fed's monetary policy. The experience in the last decade puts in doubt the stability and usefulness of the Phillips curve in predicting inflation and conducting monetary policy. First, the Phillips curve failed to predict the stable inflation seen in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. In my opinion, there could be several explanations for this. There is real inflation happening underneath the covers which is not being captured in the CPI metrics. That's one possibility. The model for predicting the way inflation and the economy works is fundamentally flawed and doesn't track the real behaviour of the economy. A growing number of economists and commentators of different backgrounds have gone so far as to declare the death of the Phillips curve.
Slow and steady housing markets don't make the news as they are boring and don't generate the kind of click bait headlines that turn heads, but as an investor, that's exactly where you want to be. So instead of just listening to the headlines, Jason Hartman teaches you and gives you the tools to evaluate properties, interest rates and changing markets so you can learn to think for yourself! Join Jason and Tyler Wynn as they explore Jason's views on the changing housing market and how to determine whether or not a property is worth buying. Join us this weekend for the Recession Proof Investing Summit! Don't miss this live, virtual event with Jason and his team and some exciting industry experts ready to share their strategies with you! Reserve your spot at: EmpoweredInvestor.com/Summit. Key Takeaways: Jason's editorial 0:00 Welcome Empowered Investors! 2:22 Recession Proof Investing Summit this weekend! EmpoweredInvestor.com/Summit 2:40 What is driving changes in housing inventory? 7:22 Cheap mortgages are the new collector's items 11:34 Save the date for our live event in Scottsdale, AZ - Tom Wheelwright will be speaking! 12:31 Update on court battle - final judgment amount has been reduced Jason's interview with Tyler Wynn 16:46 Jason's view of the changing market 18:37 Factors to determine if you are in a good investment market 22:45 The Phillips Curve - balancing unemployment against inflation 24:38 Inflation rates and money lending 27:37 The US dollar is a moving target 29:56 Determining whether or not to buy a house 31:05 Using other assets to determine the value of real estate 33:59 Mortgage payment - historically cheap or expensive? 36:19 Houses are half as expensive today as they were 52 years ago 40:02 Hedonic adaptation 43:00 Will interest rates go back down? Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class: Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com
Adherents of the famous Phillips curve believe there is a permanent tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. This is mistaken. Original Article: "The Fed Is Wrong to Make Policies Based upon the Phillips Curve" This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon.
Adherents of the famous Phillips curve believe there is a permanent tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. This is mistaken. Original Article: "The Fed Is Wrong to Make Policies Based upon the Phillips Curve" This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon.
My latest chat with Tarric Brooker, @AvidCommentator on Twitter. His charts are available at: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-19th-august-2022 The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Bob provides a qualified defense of Larry Summers' recent claim that high unemployment will be necessary to contain price inflation. Mentioned in the Episode and Other Links of Interest: The https://youtu.be/z-uKEMiOWcw (Summers interview) featured in the audio clip. The https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-20/summers-says-us-needs-5-jobless-rate-for-five-years-to-ease-cpi (Bloomberg article) quoting Summers on how unemployment is necessary to fight inflation. Robert Lucas' https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2018/06/lucas-lecture.pdf (Nobel Prize lecture) that explains the Phillips Curve. The Jan 2022 https://bcf.princeton.edu/events/inflation-debate-between-paul-r-krugman-lawrence-h-summers-part-ii/ (debate between Krugman and Summers) on inflation. http://bobmurphyshow.com/contribute (Help support) the Bob Murphy Show. The audio production for this episode was provided by http://podsworth.com/ (Podsworth Media).
Das Anleihekaufprogramm der EZB ist Anfang Juli ausgelaufen, nach und nach hebt die Zentralbank die Zinsen an, der nächste Zinsschritt könnte im September erfolgen. Die Federal Reserve Bank unter Jerome Powell geht noch drastischer bei der Zinsanhebung vor, zuletzt erhöhte man die Zinsen gleich um 75 Basispunkte, das sind immerhin 0,75 Prozent. Die Zentralbanken wollen so die Inflation in den Griff bekommen, Schützenhilfe bekommen sie dafür von der herrschenden Politik. Was aber geschieht hier eigentlich? Wenn die Zinsen steigen, werden Kredite für Unternehmen, aber auch für Häuslebauer erheblich teurer. Viele werden unter der Zinslast einknicken, Investitionen nicht tätigen oder Hausbaupläne vertagen. Außerdem kann mit einem Anstieg der Arbeitslosenrate gerechnet werden, aber genau das ist politisch gewollt – denn auch damit sinkt die Nachfrage in vielen Haushalten, wodurch wiederum die Preise fallen. Zugleich wird Gewerkschaften vonseiten der Politik signalisiert, dass nun nicht der richtige Zeitpunkt für Forderungen nach Lohnerhöhungen sei. Mit anderen Worten: Die Inflation wird auf Kosten derjenigen bekämpft, die hart arbeiten und Kredite abstottern müssen. In der neuen Folge von „Wohlstand für Alle“ sprechen Ole Nymoen und Wolfgang M. Schmitt über die aktuelle Geld- und Zinspolitik. Literatur: David Ratner/Jae Sim:“Who Killed the Phillips Curve? A Murder Mystery”, in: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/who-killed-the-phillips-curve-a-murder-mystery.htm. WERBUNG: Mehr Informationen über das OXI-Magazin findet ihr hier: https://oxiblog.de/ Ihr könnt uns unterstützen - herzlichen Dank! Paypal: https://www.paypal.me/oleundwolfgang Konto: Wolfgang M. Schmitt, Ole Nymoen Betreff: Wohlstand fuer Alle IBAN: DE67 5745 0120 0130 7996 12 BIC: MALADE51NWD Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/oleundwolfgang Steady: https://steadyhq.com/de/oleundwolfgang/about Twitter: Ole: twitter.com/nymoen_ole Wolfgang: twitter.com/SchmittJunior Die gesamte WfA-Literaturliste: https://wohlstand-fuer-alle.netlify.app
Central bankers and economists have often used the Phillips curve to determine the path of inflation. The problem is, they often get it wrong. No wonder then, that they question its validity when it doesn't work the way it should. Call it operator error. On today's podcast with Phil Dobbie, Steve Keen explains how most miss the dynamic aspects of Phillips' observations – it's the speed of change that counts, not a snapshot of employment levels at any particular time. Her also considered the changes in the price of inputs. On that basis, with unemployment rapidly falling and the price of imports rapidly rising, the Phillip's curve has never been more relevant. So, does it tell us what happens next? Become a subscriber to listen to the full version of this podcast.
(*Note: This is a Vintage Dangerous History Podcast from 2014, reissued on the public DHP feed for a limited time. Please cut the poor audio quality some slack!) Here it is, another installment in our non-consecutive mini-series on the tumultuous history of the United States Dollar. Join CJ (in 2014) as he discusses: The Bretton Woods system, set up in 1944 as the framework for the international monetary order The roots of the Great Inflation (c. mid-1960s-early-1980s) that would end Bretton Woods & any link between the US dollar and specie (gold & silver), including the rise of the so-called “New Economists”, who pushed a Neo-Keynesian view that relied heavily on a model called the “Phillips Curve” (BTW, the stagflation of the 1970s later proved that the Phillips Curve doesn't always work) How the Great Inflation came to be, looking across multiple decades & presidential administrations The government's responses to inflation, including de-monetizing silver in the mid-60s & ending the Bretton Woods ‘gold window' in 1971 Some of the effects of inflation Support the Dangerous History Podcast via Patreon or SubscribeStar. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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