Podcasts about estimating

Biotech is one of the few areas in investing where specialized knowledge may still generate persistent alpha. In this episode of Excess Returns, D.A. Wallach, venture capitalist and co-founder of Time BioVentures, joins us to explain how biotech investing works, why development-stage drug companies behave like portfolios of options, and why specialist investors play such a large role in this market. We also explore the cycles that have driven biotech performance, the impact of interest rates and capital flows, and how AI and global competition may reshape the industry in the years ahead.D.A. Wallach – Twitterhttps://x.com/DAWallachTopics covered include• Why biotech may be one of the last areas where specialist investors can generate persistent alpha• The “bag of options” framework for valuing development-stage biotech companies• How probabilities of drug success and clinical base rates drive biotech valuations• Why rising interest rates hit biotech stocks harder than many other sectors• How capital flows and investor narratives create boom-and-bust cycles in biotech• What happened to biotech during the pandemic surge and the post-COVID downturn• Why AI and tech narratives compete with biotech for investor attention• The role of specialist biotech hedge funds in the public markets• How large pharmaceutical companies drive returns through biotech acquisitions• Differences between biotech venture capital and traditional tech venture investing• How venture investors evaluate drug development programs and scientific evidence• Portfolio construction and diversification when investing in highly uncertain biotech companies• The emerging role of China in clinical trials and global drug development• Whether AI can improve drug discovery, clinical trials, and pharmaceutical R&D productivity• Why investors should avoid rigid value vs growth ideologies and stay adaptableTimestamps00:00 Why biotech investing requires specialized knowledge01:40 Is biotech one of the last places for persistent active alpha?02:45 The “bag of options” model for valuing biotech companies05:00 Drug development phases and probabilities of success07:00 Using base rates to estimate clinical trial success09:20 Estimating total addressable markets for new drugs11:10 Why rising interest rates hurt biotech valuations13:00 Capital flows and why biotech underperformed in recent years15:30 The biotech boom and bust around the COVID pandemic18:00 How AI and tech compete with biotech for investor capital22:20 The role of specialist biotech hedge funds24:00 How pharmaceutical acquisitions drive biotech returns25:20 How biotech venture capital differs from tech VC30:50 Why biotech investors must evaluate complex scientific data34:20 Where AI may improve drug discovery and R&D productivity42:00 Portfolio construction and diversification in biotech venture investing44:30 Volatility, valuation marks, and private market pricing48:00 Managing risk across different drug technologies and disease areas49:30 Why China is becoming important for clinical trials53:00 Why biotech investing must be viewed as a global industry54:30 The importance of flexibility between value and growth investing58:50 Will investing become more systematic and quantitative over time

"How do you estimate something you've never done before?" Construx gets that question a lot. This podcast identifies how to approach estimating when you have a lot of unknown items. Join Construx's Earl Beede and Steve Tockey as they look at techniques for making the unknown less unknown, bounding the uncertainty, and planning through the unknown. Hosted by Mark Griffin

Do nine-ending prices really work?  Will £9.99 sell more than £10.00? Can it be used for high-quality products? What about hedonic products? Can it be used on speed limits?  For years this debate has raged on. But today on Nudge, I speak with pricing expert Dr Markus Husemann-Kopetzky to settle the argument. ---  Markus' book: https://amzn.to/46Hetcg  Unlock the Nudge Vaults: https://www.nudgepodcast.com/vaults Join 10,534 readers of my newsletter: https://www.nudgepodcast.com/mailing-list  Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/phill-agnew/  --- Today's sources:  Gendall, P. (1998). Estimating the effect of odd pricing. Journal of Product & Brand Management, 7(5), 421–432. Husemann-Kopetzky, M. (2018). Handbook on the psychology of pricing: 100+ effects on persuasion and influence every entrepreneur, marketer and pricing manager needs to know. Independently published. ITN Archive. (2022, November 28). “I will not accept that it's a highly dangerous road” (1988) [Video]. YouTube. Kim, J., Novemsky, N., & Dhar, R. (2013). Adding small differences can increase similarity and choice. Psychological Science, 24(2), 176–182. Nunes, J. C., & Park, C. W. (2003). Incommensurate resources: Not just more of the same. Journal of Marketing Research, 40(1), 26–38. Rubinstein, A., & Yee, V. (2020). The left-digit bias: When and why are consumers penny wise and pound foolish? Journal of Marketing Research, 57(3), 467–485. Schindler, R. M., & Kibarian, T. M. (1996). Increased consumer sales response through use of 99-ending prices. Journal of Retailing, 72(2), 187–199. Shotton, R. (2018). The choice factory: 25 behavioural biases that influence what we buy. Harriman House. Suwelack, T., Hogreve, J., & Hoyer, W. D. (2011). Understanding money-back guarantees: Cognitive, affective, and behavioral effects. Journal of Retailing, 87(4), 462–478. Wadhwa, M., & Zhang, K. (2015). This number just feels right: The impact of roundedness of price numbers on product evaluations. Journal of Consumer Research, 41

The headlines shout that AI is coming for every job...We've been hearing the same siren all year, so we sat down and mapped the real fault line between work that moves data and work that moves atoms. From roofing valleys and LVL cut strategies to drone surveys and one-click renderings, we break down what actually changes on site—and what still needs a skilled human to adapt when the plan meets the weather.We start with the fear and the flashy predictions, then test them against field reality. Estimating and rendering are already transforming: a window schedule can become a clean order in seconds, and a drone shot plus a smart prompt can show a client a near-final exterior before the roof is sheathed. That's leverage for builders, not a pink slip. Meanwhile, the trades that live on ladders, in crawlspaces, and under eaves remain stubbornly resistant to automation. A demo bot can lay shingles on a clean patch; it can't climb, handle a dormer, or fix a tricky valley while checking flashing and safety. Judgment, improvisation, and accountability still belong to people.We also share practical wins that anyone can copy. Feed your estimating sheet to a smart tool and tighten formulas you've trusted for years. Use AI to minimize waste on 48-foot LVLs with real inventory constraints. Pair drones with mapping to compress weeks of surveying into minutes, then walk the land to confirm blind spots under trees. And if you're early in your career, stack trade certifications with AI fluency—be the person who turns messy inputs into clear decisions. That's how you stay valuable no matter how fast the software moves.Want more like this? Subscribe, share the show with a friend in the trades, and leave a quick review so others can find us. Then tell us: what job on your site would you never trust to a bot?

Steven Badger from Zelle LLP joins us to talk about all the "hot topics" in the always interesting world of hail and other weather-related claims.  Steve will cover all the emerging trends in these claims, including current fraud and other abuse schemes, and provide his recommendations on how to address the common issues. He will also talk about what he is seeing with recent expanded use of the appraisal process.  Finally, Steve will talk about how his clients are addressing these issues through underwriting and policy wording changes. Notable Timestamps [ 00:07 ] - The episode introduces a discussion on emerging trends in hail and weather-related insurance claims, including fraud schemes, disputes over damage assessments, and how insurers are exploring underwriting and policy wording changes to address recurring issues. [ 01:22 ] - A key industry trend is shifting toward bigger-picture solutions that reduce disputes altogether, such as improving building resilience or changing claims processes so insurers and policyholders spend less time fighting over losses. [ 02:12 ] - Roof resiliency is a major topic. If roofing materials could withstand moderate hail, many claims would never occur, raising debate about requiring more durable materials like Class 4 hail-resistant roofing in hail-prone states. [ 03:28 ] - Some insurers already offer premium discounts for homes with Class 4 hail-rated roofs, but experts argue broader mandates may be necessary to significantly reduce hail claim frequency and stabilize insurance markets. [ 05:39 ] - Insurers report a rise in fabricated hail and wind damage claims, particularly during slow storm years when contractors relying on storm work may be tempted to create damage to generate insurance-funded repairs. [ 07:24 ] - Fabricated damage raises complex coverage questions. If a contractor intentionally damages property, insurers must consider whether the loss could fall under vandalism or malicious mischief provisions. [ 09:40 ] - Disputes often shift from scope of damage to pricing. Estimating tools like Xactimate help set initial reserves, but they are still estimates and can be manipulated by adding or removing line items. [ 11:27 ] - Many policies ultimately require payment based on the "amount actually incurred," meaning the real cost of repairs. This shifts focus from software estimates to contracts, invoices, and proof of actual payments. [ 14:08 ] - Contractors and public adjusters may inflate estimates within software systems, even adding items like adjuster commissions that are often not covered, which can raise unrealistic expectations for policyholders. [ 15:33 ] - One strategy to counter inflated estimates is obtaining real competitive contractor bids. Presenting an independent price for the same work can help challenge excessive claims and refocus negotiations on actual costs. Your PLRB Resources Invoking "Our Option" – Increased Use of Preferred Contractor Networks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kC_WAl0N7gI The Appraisal Process – Is it Still Useful to Resolve Disputed Claims? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5YgKpL5FlI&t=1s Employees of member companies also have access to a searchable legal database, hundreds of hours of video trainings, building code materials, weather data, and even the ability to have your coverage questions answered by our team of attorneys (https://www.plrb.org/ask-plrb/) at no additional charge to you or your company. Subscribe to this Podcast Your Podcast App - Please subscribe and rate us on your favorite podcast app YouTube - Please like and subscribe at @plrb LinkedIN - Please follow at "Property and Liability Resource Bureau" Send us your Scenario! Please reach out to us at 630-509-8704 with your scenario! This could be your "adjuster story" sharing a situation from your claims experience, or a burning question you would like the team to answer. In any case, please omit any personal information as we will anonymize your story before we share. Just reach out to scenario@plrb.org.  Legal Information The views and opinions expressed in this resource are those of the individual speaker and not necessarily those of the Property & Liability Resource Bureau (PLRB), its membership, or any organization with which the presenter is employed or affiliated. The information, ideas, and opinions are presented as information only and not as legal advice or offers of representation. Individual policy language and state laws vary, and listeners should rely on guidance from their companies and counsel as appropriate. Music: "Piece of Future" by Keyframe_Audio. Pixabay. Pixabay License. Font: Metropolis by Chris Simpson. SIL OFL 1.1. Icons: FontAwesome (SIL OFL 1.1) and Noun Project (royalty-free licenses purchased via subscription). Sound Effects: Pixabay (Pixabay License) and Freesound.org (CC0).

Another episode where the guest is not a sense-making prophet or a galaxy-brained guru, as we engage in academic dialogos with Oxford psychologist Andrew Przybylski. This is a preview of our Decoding Academia series on Patreon (now 30+ episodes deep), where we swap internet gurus and rhetoric for actual researchers and empirical debates.Andrew's work spans motivation, gaming, and digital technology. His most recent crime is that he studies the impact of technology and has not found evidence that it is destroying wellbeing and ushering in civilisational collapse. We discuss the ongoing moral panic around smartphones, social media, and teenagers' allegedly pulverised minds and why much of the debate rests on statistical techniques roughly equivalent to staring deeply at Excel spreadsheets and hammering SPSS until the desired narrative appears.We get into measurement problems around “screen time,” why trivially small correlations become front-page catastrophes, and how the discourse rewards confident storytelling far more than (boring) careful causal inference. Also covered: cross-cultural evidence, the policy implications of airport pop science bestsellers, and the potential civilisational threat posed by Warhammer 40k.If you enjoy episodes where we analyse methods rather than metaphysics, the full Decoding Academia series lives on Patreon.Relevant Research (Przybylski & collaborators)Andrew's Academic Profile and Personal WebsiteFassi, L., Ferguson, A. M., Przybylski, A. K., Ford, T. J., & Orben, A. (2025). Social media use in adolescents with and without mental health conditions. Nature human behaviour, 9(6), 1283-1299.Vuorre, M., & Przybylski, A. K. (2023). Estimating the association between Facebook adoption and well-being in 72 countries. Royal Society open science, 10(8).Vuorre, M., Orben, A., & Przybylski, A. K. (2021). There is no evidence that associations between adolescents' digital technology engagement and mental health problems have increased. Clinical Psychological Science, 9(5), 823-835.Orben, A., & Przybylski, A. K. (2019). The association between adolescent well-being and digital technology use. Nature human behaviour, 3(2), 173-182.Orben, A., Dienlin, T., & Przybylski, A. K. (2019). Social media's enduring effect on adolescent life satisfaction. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(21), 10226-10228.Przybylski, A. K., & Weinstein, N. (2017). A large-scale test of the goldilocks hypothesis: quantifying the relations between digital-screen use and the mental well-being of adolescents. Psychological science, 28(2), 204-215.Johannes, N., Vuorre, M., & Przybylski, A. K. (2021). Video game play is positively correlated with well-being. Royal Society open science, 8(2), 202049.Przybylski, A. K., Rigby, C. S., & Ryan, R. M. (2010). A motivational model of video game engagement. Review of general psychology, 14(2), 154-166.

In episode 2 of season 4 of The Restoration Master Class, experts Robb Harrell, VP of Strategic Accounts at DocuSketch, and Todd Van Sant, VP of Estimating at ATI Restoration, break down how AI is transforming restoration estimating and claims.From faster estimate creation and blueprint analysis to tools that help enforce carrier guidelines, AI is reshaping workflows — but not replacing human expertise. They discuss the opportunities, limitations, regulatory realities, and why experienced judgment remains critical as the industry moves toward faster, more accurate indemnification.

In episode 2 of season 4 of The Restoration Master Class, experts Robb Harrell, VP of Strategic Accounts at DocuSketch, and Todd Van Sant, VP of Estimating at ATI Restoration, break down how AI is transforming restoration estimating and claims.From faster estimate creation and blueprint analysis to tools that help enforce carrier guidelines, AI is reshaping workflows — but not replacing human expertise. They discuss the opportunities, limitations, regulatory realities, and why experienced judgment remains critical as the industry moves toward faster, more accurate indemnification.

Thanks to our Partners, NAPA TRACS, Today's Class, KUKUI, and Pit Crew Loyalty Watch Full Video Episode Host Carm Capriotto dives into the untapped power of Shop Management Systems (SMS) with business coach Dave Schedin and Ben Dexter, National Training Manager at NAPA TRACS. Together, they reveal how two often-overlooked tools, categories and canned jobs, can dramatically improve shop efficiency, consistency, and profitability. The conversation highlights how a smarter system setup leads to faster workflows, clearer data, and stronger decision-making. Key Topics Discussed Unlocking the Power of Categories: Dave Schedin explains the importance of tracking three core labor types: Diagnostic, Preventative Maintenance, and Repair. When categorized correctly, shop owners can pinpoint exactly where time and money are gained—or lost. Building the “Superhighway” to Faster Estimates: Schedin compares developing Canned Jobs to constructing a freeway: it takes an upfront investment of time, but once built, it enables rapid, efficient estimating. Professional Communication: Canned jobs help replace vague descriptions with clear, value-focused explanations. This allows newer advisors to communicate like seasoned professionals while ensuring consistent pricing, messaging, and storytelling across the shop. Turning Data into Profit: Ben Dexter reinforces the principle of “garbage in, garbage out”: without clean, organized data, shop owners are simply guessing. By mastering categories and canned jobs, shop owners can turn their management system into a powerful engine for clarity, consistency, and long-term profitability. Timestamps 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:03:15 – The Three Labor Categories (Diagnostic, PM, Repair) 00:05:45 – Creating Smart Warranty Categories 00:08:20 – Data Integrity: “Garbage In, Garbage Out” 00:14:15 – Canned Jobs & Professional Storytelling 00:16:30 – “Level 10” Jobs & Built-In Parts Triggers 00:18:00 – Reducing Advisor Cognitive Load 00:19:45 – Generic Jobs vs. Vehicle-Specific “Pro Jobs” 00:22:30 – Helping New Advisors Sound Like Pros 00:25:00 – Writing Complex Estimates in 2–3 Minutes 00:29:15 – The ROI: 15–20% Sales Growth Potential 00:31:00 – Building the Estimating “Superhighway” Dave Schedin, CompuTrek Automotive Management Systems. Dave's previous episodes HERE Ben Dexter, National Training Manager, NAPA TRACS. Find Ben's other episodes HERE Thanks to our Partner, NAPA TRACS NAPA TRACS will move your shop into the SMS fast lane with onsite training and six days a week of support and local representation. Find NAPA TRACS on the...

We're dropping another straight-from-the-trenches episode. Host Luke Eggebraaten brings on Brad from Teach Me Dirt, the channel dedicated to exposing the real, often gatekept techniques in dirt work, excavation, and civil construction. Brad's straight-up mission: "I teach all of the gatekept methods of the dirt work, excavation, and civil construction industries for you." On his YouTube (@TeachMeDirt), he delivers practical breakdowns—takeoffs, grading, bidding, stormwater calcs, and the kind of operator know-how that actually gets jobs done right and profitable. Expect no-nonsense discussion on excavation tricks, civil site realities, and hard-won lessons from the field. Raw, useful, and zero fluff. Check out Brad's channel: www.youtube.com/@TeachMeDirt IG - @teachmedirt TikTok - @teachmedirt Book a free strategy call with Phaser Marketing (775) DIRT-BAG : https://calendly.com/d/cm59-rf4-hgq/investing-in-a-new-construction-website?month=2025-05 Huge Thanks to our sponsors: Charlie Huff - Need a certificate of insurance? Done. Adding a new piece of equipment to the fleet? Consider it handled. Got an audit breathing down your neck? Charlie's already on it. This is full-service insurance from people who care and understand—and it shows. Whether you're a one-crew start-up or managing a multi-state operation, Charlie makes sure you're covered right the first time so you can focus on growing, hiring, and hauling. Call (435) 764-4833 or visit https://trupointco.com/ Eljen - Revolutionizing Onsite Wastewater Management Backed by decades of engineering expertise, the Eljen GSF® A42 system uses a layered approach combining geotextile fabric and a plastic core to optimize effluent treatment. This modular leachfield design increases filtration efficiency, reduces the required installation footprint, and protects soil absorption capacity for the long term. Especially effective in space-constrained or environmentally sensitive areas, it offers a reliable, sustainable upgrade to traditional septic systems. Learn more at: eljen.com SludgeHammer - Enhancing Septic System Performance with Advanced Microbiology By introducing a proprietary blend of live bacteria into existing septic tanks, SludgeHammer systems biologically transform waste processing. This method restores failing leach fields, reduces sludge buildup, and supports environmentally friendly water recycling without the need for major system overhauls. Certified for performance and scalability, the solution is ideal for homes, businesses, and larger-scale applications. Discover the details at: sludgehammer.net Thanks for listening!

Fathom was built on the assumption that transcription would become commoditized and generative models would steadily improve. Rather than training proprietary models, Richard focused on building the infrastructure around them and waiting for model capabilities to reach the right threshold.In this conversation, he explains why AI has made effort and impact harder to predict, and why that shifts product development from roadmap execution toward experimentation. He describes separating an exploratory AI team from core engineering, structuring that team to prototype and write specs, and expecting a meaningful portion of experiments not to work.Richard introduces his Jenga model for AI development, testing different models and use cases to find where resistance is lowest. He also discusses the operational realities of rapid model updates, hallucination rates, and what he calls the LLM treadmill.The discussion explores qualitative QA, organizational design, buy versus build decisions, and why leadership taste plays an increasingly important role as AI lowers the barrier to generating outputs.Key takeaways: Estimating effort and impact is becoming harderAs model capabilities improve quickly, features that require months today may take far less time in the near future. This makes traditional planning assumptions less stable.Product development increasingly resembles R&DWith shifting capabilities and uncertain outcomes, teams must experiment, prototype, and iterate rather than rely solely on long term roadmaps.Organizational structure must reflect experimentationSeparating exploratory AI work from core engineering can allow faster iteration while maintaining stability elsewhere.Rapid model updates create operational pressureFrequent improvements and changing performance levels can require teams to revisit and adjust features more often than in traditional software cycles.Qualitative judgment plays a larger roleAs AI lowers the cost of generating outputs, evaluating quality and deciding what to ship becomes increasingly important.Fathom: fathom.aiFathom LinkedIn: linkedin/company/fathom-video/Richard's LinkedIn: linkedin/in/rrwhite/00:00 Intro: Why AI Breaks Roadmaps00:19 Meet Richard White (Fathom AI)02:16 From Roadmaps to R&D04:49 Designing AI Teams for Speed07:11 The Jenga Model09:56 Failing 50% & AI Team Psychology13:40 LLMs as Interns & Anti-Planning21:01 QA, Data Pain & Developing Taste24:59 Executive Taste & Culture Rules27:20 Reacting to AI Waves28:50 Fathom's 4-Step Product Plan30:47 What New Models Unlock32:13 From Scribe to Second Brain40:32 Build vs Buy in AI45:32 The Debrief

Estimating isn't just math—it's how contractors decide which risks they're willing to own. In this episode of the Construction Genius Podcast, Eric Anderton talks with Chris Clausing, Director of Program and Curriculum Innovation for Construction at Colibri Group, about why estimating is still more art than science—and why contractors consistently miss the risk margin that protects profit. Drawing on 25 years as a commercial general contractor, Chris explains how regional differences, niche discipline, poor handoffs, and earned value blind spots quietly erode margins. They also discuss how AI can help identify estimating risks—if it's adopted thoughtfully. If you've ever won work that you later wished you hadn't, this episode will change how you think about estimating.  

Dr. Olivier de Hon is the Chief Science Officer and Director of Intelligence and Investigations at Doping Authority Netherlands. In this episode, he shares more about the history of the organization, progress in estimating doping prevalence, challenges in assessing the effectiveness of anti-doping programs, and considerations for promoting clean sport among elite athletes as well as recreational athletes in gyms and fitness centers.

Cross-posted to LessWrong.Summary History's most destructive ideologies—like Nazism, totalitarian communism, and religious fundamentalism—exhibited remarkably similar characteristics: epistemic and moral certainty extreme tribalism dividing humanity into a sacred “us” and an evil “them” a willingness to use whatever means necessary, including brutal violence. Such ideological fanaticism was a major driver of eight of the ten greatest atrocities since 1800, including the Taiping Rebellion, World War II, and the regimes of Stalin, Mao, and Hitler. We focus on ideological fanaticism over related concepts like totalitarianism partly because it better captures terminal preferences, which plausibly matter most as we approach superintelligent AI and technological maturity. Ideological fanaticism is considerably less influential than in the past, controlling only a small fraction of world GDP. Yet at least hundreds of millions still hold fanatical views, many regimes exhibit concerning ideological tendencies, and the past two decades have seen widespread democratic backsliding. The long-term influence of ideological fanaticism is uncertain. Fanaticism faces many disadvantages including a weak starting position, poor epistemics, and difficulty assembling broad coalitions. But it benefits from greater willingness to use extreme measures, fervent mass followings, and a historical tendency to survive and even thrive amid technological and societal upheaval. Beyond complete victory or defeat, multipolarity may [...] ---Outline:(00:16) Summary(05:19) What do we mean by ideological fanaticism?(08:40) I. Dogmatic certainty: epistemic and moral lock-in(10:02) II. Manichean tribalism: total devotion to us, total hatred for them(12:42) III. Unconstrained violence: any means necessary(14:33) Fanaticism as a multidimensional continuum(16:09) Ideological fanaticism drove most of recent historys worst atrocities(19:24) Death tolls dont capture all harm(20:55) Intentional versus natural or accidental harm(22:44) Why emphasize ideological fanaticism over political systems like totalitarianism?(25:07) Fanatical and totalitarian regimes have caused far more harm than all other regime types(26:29) Authoritarianism as a risk factor(27:19) Values change political systems: Ideological fanatics seek totalitarianism, not democracy(29:50) Terminal values may matter independently of political systems, especially with AGI(31:02) Fanaticisms connection to malevolence (dark personality traits)(34:22) The current influence of ideological fanaticism(34:42) Historical perspective: it was much worse, but we are sliding back(37:19) Estimating the global scale of ideological fanaticism(43:57) State actors(48:12) How much influence will ideological fanaticism have in the long-term future?(48:57) Reasons for optimism: Why ideological fanaticism will likely lose(49:45) A worse starting point and historical track record(50:33) Fanatics intolerance results in coalitional disadvantages(51:53) The epistemic penalty of irrational dogmatism(54:21) The marketplace of ideas and human preferences(55:57) Reasons for pessimism: Why ideological fanatics may gain power(56:04) The fragility of democratic leadership in AI(56:37) Fanatical actors may grab power via coups or revolutions(59:36) Fanatics have fewer moral constraints(01:01:13) Fanatics prioritize destructive capabilities(01:02:13) Some ideologies with fanatical elements have been remarkably resilient and successful(01:03:01) Novel fanatical ideologies could emerge--or existing ones could mutate(01:05:08) Fanatics may have longer time horizons, greater scope-sensitivity, and prioritize growth more(01:07:15) A possible middle ground: Persistent multipolar worlds(01:08:33) Why multipolar futures seem plausible(01:10:00) Why multipolar worlds might persist indefinitely(01:15:42) Ideological fanaticism increases existential and suffering risks(01:17:09) Ideological fanaticism increases the risk of war and conflict(01:17:44) Reasons for war and ideological fanaticism(01:26:27) Fanatical ideologies are non-democratic, which increases the risk of war(01:27:00) These risks are both time-sensitive and timeless(01:27:44) Fanatical retributivism may lead to astronomical suffering(01:29:50) Empirical evidence: how many people endorse eternal extreme punishment?(01:33:53) Religious fanatical retributivism(01:40:45) Secular fanatical retributivism(01:41:43) Ideological fanaticism could undermine long-reflection-style frameworks and AI alignment(01:42:33) Ideological fanaticism threatens collective moral deliberation(01:47:35) AI alignment may not solve the fanaticism problem either(01:53:33) Prevalence of reality-denying, anti-pluralistic, and punitive worldviews(01:55:44) Ideological fanaticism could worsen many other risks(01:55:49) Differential intellectual regress(01:56:51) Ideological fanaticism may give rise to extreme optimization and insatiable moral desires(01:59:21) Apocalyptic terrorism(02:00:05) S-risk-conducive propensities and reverse cooperative intelligence(02:01:28) More speculative dynamics: purity spirals and self-inflicted suffering(02:03:00) Unknown unknowns and navigating exotic scenarios(02:03:43) Interventions(02:05:31) Societal or political interventions(02:05:51) Safeguarding democracy(02:06:40) Reducing political polarization(02:10:26) Promoting anti-fanatical values: classical liberalism and Enlightenment principles(02:13:55) Growing the influence of liberal democracies(02:15:54) Encouraging reform in illiberal countries(02:16:51) Promoting international cooperation(02:22:36) Artificial intelligence-related interventions(02:22:41) Reducing the chance that transformative AI falls into the hands of fanatics(02:27:58) Making transformative AIs themselves less likely to be fanatical(02:36:14) Using AI to improve epistemics and deliberation(02:38:13) Fanaticism-resistant post-AGI governance(02:39:51) Addressing deeper causes of ideological fanaticism(02:41:26) Supplementary materials(02:41:39) Acknowledgments(02:42:22) References --- First published: February 12th, 2026 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EDBQPT65XJsgszwmL/long-term-risks-from-ideological-fanaticism --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. 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In this episode, Dr Elle Wadsworth talks to Dr Rachel Lees Thorne, a postdoctoral research associate and Professor Tom Freeman, a professor of psychology, both from the Addiction and Mental Health Group at the University of Bath, UK. The interview covers Rachel and Tom's research article estimating thresholds for risk of cannabis use disorder using standard delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) unitsWhat are standard THC units [01:25]The importance of using THC units to estimate thresholds for risk of cannabis use disorder [02:59]How people who use cannabis can use standard THC units [03:46] The CannTeen study [04:51]Why the authors focused on adolescents and adults rather than young adults [06:02]The key findings of the study [07:00]Translating THC units to harm reduction messaging [09:38]How the THC levels of cannabis were obtained [11:04]The implications of the findings for policy and harm reduction messaging [12:17]The take home messages [13:09]Can the findings be translated out of a UK market? [14:15]The next steps with standard THC units [15:25]About Elle Wadsworth: Elle is an academic fellow with the Society for the Study of Addiction. She is based at the University of Bath with the Addiction and Mental Health Group and her research interests include drug policy, cannabis legalisation, and public health. About Rachel Lees Thorne: Rachel is a research associate and associate director of the Addiction and Mental Health Group at the University of Bath. She completed her PhD in the same group in 2023, investigating risk factors and treatment for cannabis use disorder. Her current research examines the standard THC unit and its application for harm reduction and public health policy.About Tom Freeman: Tom is a Professor of Psychology at the University of Bath, and Director of the Addiction and Mental Health Group. His research includes characterising changes in cannabis products and their association with health, novel harm reduction strategies such as the standard THC unit, and clinical trials for the treatment of cannabis use disorder. He is funded by a UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) Future Leaders Fellowship, as well as the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Policy Research Unit in Addictions, and the NIHR Bath Mental Health Research Group.Authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.Original article: Estimating thresholds for risk of cannabis use disorder using standard delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) units https://doi.org/10.1111/add.70263 The opinions expressed in this podcast reflect the views of the host and interviewees and do not necessarily represent the opinions or official positions of the SSA or Addiction journal.The SSA does not endorse or guarantee the accuracy of the information in external sources or links and accepts no responsibility or liability for any consequences arising from the use of such information. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Estimating can bring out strong reactions, and for good reason. Mike Cohn and Brian Milner unpack why it gets misused, what “estimate responsibly” really means, and how to use planning to make better decisions without turning numbers into weapons. Overview In this episode, Brian sits down with Mike Cohn to talk about estimating and planning in a way that teams can actually live with. They explore why estimates became such a hot button topic, what the “no estimates” movement is reacting to, and how Mike's thinking has evolved over time. You will hear practical guidance on story points versus time, why teams should estimate only when it helps someone make a decision, and how to keep estimates from damaging trust. They also cover where flow metrics help, where they fall short, and how teams build credibility with leadership through responsible planning. References and resources mentioned in the show: Mike Cohn Estimating & Planning in Agile - A 2026 Field Guide Accurate Agile Planning Course Blog: Estimating and Planning in Agile: Why They Still Matter in 2026 by Mike Cohn Blog: Getting Better Estimates Is Easier Than You Think by Mike Cohn Blog: What Are Agile Story Points? By Mike Cohn Subscribe to the Agile Mentors Podcast Want to get involved? This show is designed for you, and we'd love your input. Enjoyed what you heard today? Please leave a rating and a review. It really helps, and we read every single one. Got an Agile subject you'd like us to discuss or a question that needs an answer? Share your thoughts with us at podcast@mountaingoatsoftware.com This episode's presenters are: Brian Milner is a Certified Scrum Trainer®, Certified Scrum Professional®, Certified ScrumMaster®, and Certified Scrum Product Owner®, and host of the Agile Mentors Podcast training at Mountain Goat Software. He's passionate about making a difference in people's day-to-day work, influenced by his own experience of transitioning to Scrum and seeing improvements in work/life balance, honesty, respect, and the quality of work. Mike Cohn, CEO of Mountain Goat Software, is a passionate advocate for agile methodologies. Co-founder of Agile Alliance and Scrum Alliance, he thrives on helping companies succeed with Agile and witnessing its transformative impact on individuals' careers. Mike resides in Northern Idaho with his family, two Havanese dogs, and an impressive hot sauce collection.

Today, we are joined by Rob Carver to unpack one of the most volatile weeks seen in commodity markets in years. The conversation centers on silver's sharp rise and sudden collapse, using it as a case study in volatility targeting, liquidity risk, and disciplined position sizing. From Freaky Friday to broader dislocations across assets, they examine why systematic risk management matters when markets move faster than narratives. The discussion expands into diversification, correlation assumptions, alternative markets, and new research on trend portfolio construction, offering a grounded reminder that survival often matters more than precision.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series03:56 - Freaky Friday in precious metals04:29 - How Rob trades silver in a volatility adjusted framework10:25 - When volatility forces position reduction12:38 - Liquidity myths in hot commodity markets16:25 - Risk management lessons from silver's collapse22:28 - Dislocations across assets beyond metals24:54 - Fed chair speculation and muted market reactions31:33 - Discretionary versus systematic decision making34:03 - Trend barometer and market breadth update37:34 - Estimating portfolio correlation from PnL41:18 - Correlation versus volatility predictability45:13 - MAN Group paper...

#768 If you don't know where you're going, how will you ever get there? In this powerful lesson from Module 3 of the Build My Money Machine program, Choose Your Own 7-Figure Adventure, host Justin Williams explores the importance of personal clarity and how it directly fuels your path to entrepreneurial success. Using lessons from Alice in Wonderland, brain science, and Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs, you'll learn why most people are lost — and how to rise above the noise by defining your ideal life. From e-foils to business models, this episode is packed with stories, mindset shifts, and a practical visioning exercise to help you design your dream life and figure out what it will take to fund it. Let's get clear, get focused, and get ready to build! (Original Air Date - 6/5/25) What Justin discusses on today's episode: + Why most people lack direction + Power of personal clarity + Lessons from Alice in Wonderland + How the brain filters information + The Bader-Meinhof phenomenon explained + Maslow's Hierarchy and goal setting + Creating your ideal life vision + Aligning business with personality + Estimating the cost of your dream life + Designing a business like a game Watch the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠video podcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ of this episode! Did you love this episode? Listen to ⁠⁠Module 2⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ next! Ready to create a 7-figure business of your own? Go to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BuildMyMoneyMachine.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to get started today! To get access to our FREE Business Training course go to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠MillionaireUniversity.com/training⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To get exclusive offers mentioned in this episode and to support the show, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠millionaireuniversity.com/sponsors⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

AI isn't replacing contractors. It's replacing wasted time. In this episode, Dominic Rubino sits down with Justin Dews to talk about how contractors are using AI for: ✅ Faster onboarding ✅ Cleaner estimating ✅ Fewer repeat questions ✅ Better use of company knowledge This isn't hype. It's practical tools that save hours every week. If you run a contracting or remodeling business, this episode will change how you think about AI. More about Justin Dews: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/justindews/ Company LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/pathopt/ Site: https://www.pathopt.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/pathopt Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/pathopt1/ YouTube: @Pathopt SUBSCRIBE NOW: @Cabinetmakerprofitsystemcom @profittoolbelt4527 Also check out: Cabinet Maker Profit System: https://www.cabinetmakerprofitsystem.com Profit Toolbelt: https://www.profittoolbelt.com/ Contractor Wealth System: https://www.contractorwealthsystem.com #estimating #automationforbusiness #timeefficiency #contractor #constructiontips #businessstrategy #constructionlife #contracting #scalingstrategies #ai

Season 4 of the Restoration Master Class, sponsored by DocuSketch, kicks off with a powerful conversation on one of the most misunderstood—and underutilized—scaling tools in restoration: remote estimating.This episode features Nelson Higgins, VP of North America for DocuSketch and a 43-year veteran of insurance restoration. Nelson breaks down why only 15–20% of the industry is currently using remote estimating, what's holding the rest back, and how centralized estimating can dramatically improve efficiency, margins, and scalability.We dig into:What remote estimating actually requires to workWhy resistance to change is the biggest obstacleHow companies can cut estimating costs from 7–10% of revenue down to nearly 1%....and MORE!Nelson also shares real performance data from DocuSketch—including turnaround times, rejection rates, and how AI will support (not replace) estimators moving forward.

Season 4 of the Restoration Master Class, sponsored by DocuSketch, kicks off with a powerful conversation on one of the most misunderstood—and underutilized—scaling tools in restoration: remote estimating.This episode features Nelson Higgins, VP of North America for DocuSketch and a 43-year veteran of insurance restoration. Nelson breaks down why only 15–20% of the industry is currently using remote estimating, what's holding the rest back, and how centralized estimating can dramatically improve efficiency, margins, and scalability.We dig into:What remote estimating actually requires to workWhy resistance to change is the biggest obstacleHow companies can cut estimating costs from 7–10% of revenue down to nearly 1%....and MORE!Nelson also shares real performance data from DocuSketch—including turnaround times, rejection rates, and how AI will support (not replace) estimators moving forward.

Join Tommy Shaughnessy as he speaks with Logan, Managing Partner of Frictionless Capital, about the high-stakes race to build a global blockchain-based financial system. Logan shares his updated thesis on why monolithic, high-throughput architectures like Solana are winning the battle for real revenue and trading dominance over modular designs.They dive deep into the "Global Exchange" vision, the physics of time-to-inclusion, and how innovations like Proprietary AMMs (PropAMMs) are redefining market making. Logan also explores the broader implications of AI, from the compounding power of Grok to the societal impact of a robot-led workforce.

This episode focuses on how to teach the hard parts of flight training and how to fly with a deeper understanding of what the airplane and instruments are actually doing. We preview Mike Shiflett's upcoming presentation at the Redbird Migration Flight Training Conference, where he'll be covering how to teach the fundamentals of instructing, use scenarios and flowcharts effectively, and adapt the same lesson to different learner levels. We also share updates on new CFI Bootcamp offerings, including Online Ground Instruction, Remote Private Pilot Ground School, and the release of IFR Smart Study Pro. You'll hear detailed explanations of instrument concepts that are often misunderstood, including how a localizer works differently from a VOR, why OBS selection behaves differently, and how CDI sensing actually determines left/right course guidance. The episode also dives into commonly missed teaching points in chandelles, including proper power application and rudder usage during rollout. We close with practical IFR and CFI ProTips you can apply immediately, covering CDI bracketing, glideslope control techniques, and estimating distance on a standard 3° glidepath. This is flight training explained from an instructor's perspective — focused on clarity, technique, and real understanding, not rote procedures. In this episode: Teaching the hard parts of initial CFI training Using scenarios and flowcharts to teach ratings and endorsements Adapting lessons to different learner levels Online Ground Instruction and Remote PPL Ground School updates IFR Smart Study Pro overview How a localizer actually differs from a VOR OBS and HSI setup best practices Chandelles: power and rudder techniques most pilots miss CDI bracketing for course tracking Flying the glideslope with pitch, not power Estimating distance using a 3° glidepath

AI data centers are driving rapid demand growth, exposing the limits of traditional electricity forecasting and planning. --- Electricity demand in the United States is rising fast, fueled in large part by the rapid expansion of AI data centers. Grid operators have repeatedly revised their demand forecasts upward as they try to anticipate how much new power these facilities, along with other emerging loads such as advanced manufacturing and crypto mining, will require. In January, however, something unexpected happened. PJM Interconnection, the nation’s largest grid operator, lowered its demand growth outlook, just weeks after a capacity auction driven by expectations of booming demand produced record high prices. Estimating how much electricity new data centers and other large loads will actually add to the grid is difficult, and the uncertainty cuts both ways. Overestimating demand can leave consumers paying for grid infrastructure that never gets fully used. Underestimating it can threaten reliability. All of this is playing out as the rapid buildout of data centers is increasingly framed as a question of economic competitiveness and national security. On the podcast, Shana Ramirez and Arne Olson of Energy and Environmental Economics argue that while improving forecast accuracy remains important, uncertainty itself needs to play a more central role in how the grid is planned and governed. In a recent E3 paper, they lay out why demand forecasts will remain imperfect, and why grid rules and planning processes should be designed to work across a range of possible outcomes rather than relying on a single view of the future. Ramirez and Olson discuss the reliability and cost challenges this uncertainty creates and describe governance approaches that could help the power system remain reliable and affordable as new loads come online. Shana Ramirez is director, asset valuation and markets at E3. Arne Olson is a senior partner at E3. Related Content: Boomtowns in the Battery Belt: Risks and Opportunities of Clean Energy Investments in Small Towns of America https://kleinmanenergy.upenn.edu/research/publications/boomtowns-in-the-battery-belt-risks-and-opportunities-of-clean-energy-investments-in-small-towns-of-america/ Energy System Planning: New Models for Accelerating Decarbonization https://kleinmanenergy.upenn.edu/research/publications/energy-system-planning-new-models-for-accelerating-decarbonization/ Energy Policy Now is produced by The Kleinman Center for Energy Policy at the University of Pennsylvania. For all things energy policy, visit kleinmanenergy.upenn.edu.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Are you drowning your leads with follow-up after follow-up? It's a mistake many service-based businesses make, thinking more is better. But in reality, too much follow-up could be killing your sales instead of helping them.In today's episode, we dive into a common problem many health and wellness businesses face: low conversion rates after generating quality leads. Lauren shares an in-depth example from one of her clients who was generating tons of leads but only achieving a 5% booking rate. We explore why this happens and how you can fix it. From the crucial need for accurate data tracking to the importance of defining a "qualified lead," we outline the tweaks to your sales funnel that will boost lead conversions and significantly reduce your marketing spend.In This Episode:- Case study of high leads and low conversion rates- Sample lead qualification and conversion framework- Estimating the value of opt-ins- The correct sequence of contacting leads- Episode wrap-up and call-to-actionListen to This Episode on Your Favorite Podcast Channel:Follow and listen on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/perpetual-traffic/id1022441491 Follow and listen on Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/59lhtIWHw1XXsRmT5HBAuK Subscribe and watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@perpetual_traffic?sub_confirmation=1We Appreciate Your Support!Visit our website: https://perpetualtraffic.com/ Follow us on X: https://x.com/perpetualtraf Connect with Ralph Burns: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ralphburns Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/ralphhburns/ Hire Tier11 - https://www.tiereleven.com/apply-now Connect with Lauren Petrullo:Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/laurenepetrullo/LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/laurenpetrullo Consult Mongoose Media - https://mongoosemedia.us/ Mentioned in this episode:We're opening up sponsorship spots for Q1 and Q2! Apply now by visiting www.perpetualtraffic.com https://www.NEXTInsurance.com/perpetualHead to www.perpetualtraffic.com to apply to be a sponsor of this showWe're opening up sponsorship spots for Q1 and Q2! Apply now by visiting www.perpetualtraffic.com

In this episode, Dominic Rubino talks with Justin Dews (Founder & CEO of PathOpt) about how AI is being used right now inside cabinet shops and trade businesses to reduce interruptions, protect institutional knowledge, and save time. This episode is for construction and contracting business owners who: • Feel stuck answering the same questions • Struggle with onboarding and training • Worry about losing key knowledge when people leave • Want estimating and pricing support without more chaos Topics Covered: • AI for onboarding and employee training • Capturing knowledge from owners and foremen • Using AI to support estimating and pricing • Reducing interruptions and wasted time • Security and confidentiality concerns explained

Sponsored by Auth0 for Startups → 1-year free https://auth0.com/startups/vip Auth0 is an adaptable authentication and authorization platform that helps you secure your apps and AI agents. It delivers convenience, privacy, and security so you can focus on building a great UX. FOUNDER PROFILE:Rick Bente, Founder of Indomohttps://www.linkedin.com/in/rick-bente/

Download the Guide here: https://cdfinancial.com FREE 15-minute call: https://calendly.com/charlesdzama/complimentary-15-minute-phone-call-youtubeAre you truly ready to retire? This episode of the CD Financial Podcast dives into key questions about eligibility and financial management, helping you to understand the path to getting ready for retirement. We discuss essential aspects of retirement planning to ensure your financial planning is robust.Newsletter: https://cdfinancial.com/newsletterSocials:Instagram: https://instagram.com/cdfinancial.llc/Facebook: https://facebook.com/cdfinancialLinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/cd-financial

Like the show? Show your support by using our sponsors. Promotive can help you find your dream job. Touch HERE to see open jobs. Need to update your shop systems and software? Try Tekmetric HERERegister NOW for Tekmetric's Tektonic Conference coming up HEREIn this episode, Jeff Compton sits down with Bob Leonard from Mobility Works to delve into the specialized world of vehicle modifications for people with physical disabilities. Bob shares insights into the unique regulatory landscape and technical requirements affecting mobility vehicle conversions, including the importance of following strict certification rules and working closely with certified evaluators. The conversation highlights the technician shortage in the mobility industry, the blend of mechanical and electrical skills required, and the impactful difference these vehicles make in the lives of customers.Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction to The Jaded Mechanic 00:40 Live at ASTA 2025: Meet Bob Leonard from Mobility Works 01:59 What is Mobility Works? The Mission and Services Explained 03:13 Types of Modifications: Minivans, Hand Controls, and High-Tech Installs 05:58 Certification and Audit Processes in Mobility Vehicle Service 08:46 Repairing or Correcting Others' Work: Challenges in Mobility Vehicle Service 11:22 Prescriptions, Regulations & Working with Certified Evaluators 14:19 How Modifications Affect Standard Vehicle Repairs 16:35 Diagnosing Issues When Factory Systems and Modified Controls Meet 19:06 Adapting to EVs and Hybrids in the Mobility Industry 22:04 The Human Side: Fittings, Customer Stories & Building Trust 25:48 Technician Shortages & The Specialized Skills Required 29:08 Training, Following Procedures, and the Role of Inspections 32:38 Troubleshooting Wiring, Diagnostics, and Common Mistakes 36:58 Customer Impact: Independence, Freedom, and Lasting Relationships 41:12 Insurance, Rentals, and the Cost of Mobility Vehicle Ownership 45:42 Body Shop Challenges: Repairs, Estimating, and Crash-Tested Parts 51:02 Advice for Technicians: Approach, Caution, and Knowing When to Call Experts 54:59 The Growing Mobility Market & Emerging Trends 57:01 Life-Changing Mobility Solutions: Why This Work Matters 01:02:57 Wrap-Up: Spreading Awareness & Educating Technicians Follow/Subscribe to the show on social media! TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@jeffcompton7YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@TheJadedMechanicFacebook - https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100091347564232

Try Surfboard & Autocircuit for free. Unlock $10,000 in credits. Put $500 down today. Hit activation in 7 days—your $500 is waived—no risk. After 14 days, if you don't save at least 10 hours, we'll give you an additional $5,000 in credits. Start Today at https://www.kowabungastudios.com/kowabunga-account-creationComment your thoughts below and don't forget to like, SHARE, and subscribe!Want to speed up your Revit production and take your time back?https://www.kowabungastudios.comNeed an Electrical Engineer to help you with your design-build projects?Visit https://verticaldesignservices.com/ #Revit #BIM #Automation #KowabungaStudios #MEP #MEPAutomation

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3405: Craig Stephens breaks down the future costs of college for his three children and how these projections impact his retirement timeline. With detailed modeling, realistic assumptions, and a surprise family update, he explores the financial trade-offs between saving for education and maintaining long-term retirement goals, all while embracing the unpredictability of life. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://www.retirebeforedad.com/greatest-risk-to-retirement-goal/ Quotes to ponder: "Kids come with a price tag, but ultimately they are priceless." "Estimating the cost of college 15 years out is not an exact science." "Any change to a variable alters the numbers by tens of thousands of dollars." Episode references: The World's Simplest College Cost Calculator: https://www.savingforcollege.com/calculators/worlds-simplest-college-cost-calculator Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3405: Craig Stephens breaks down the future costs of college for his three children and how these projections impact his retirement timeline. With detailed modeling, realistic assumptions, and a surprise family update, he explores the financial trade-offs between saving for education and maintaining long-term retirement goals, all while embracing the unpredictability of life. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://www.retirebeforedad.com/greatest-risk-to-retirement-goal/ Quotes to ponder: "Kids come with a price tag, but ultimately they are priceless." "Estimating the cost of college 15 years out is not an exact science." "Any change to a variable alters the numbers by tens of thousands of dollars." Episode references: The World's Simplest College Cost Calculator: https://www.savingforcollege.com/calculators/worlds-simplest-college-cost-calculator Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3405: Craig Stephens breaks down the future costs of college for his three children and how these projections impact his retirement timeline. With detailed modeling, realistic assumptions, and a surprise family update, he explores the financial trade-offs between saving for education and maintaining long-term retirement goals, all while embracing the unpredictability of life. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://www.retirebeforedad.com/greatest-risk-to-retirement-goal/ Quotes to ponder: "Kids come with a price tag, but ultimately they are priceless." "Estimating the cost of college 15 years out is not an exact science." "Any change to a variable alters the numbers by tens of thousands of dollars." Episode references: The World's Simplest College Cost Calculator: https://www.savingforcollege.com/calculators/worlds-simplest-college-cost-calculator Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The UFC arrives in AEC. And we're live from the AEC Octagon.In the very first episode of our brand-new Bricks & Bytes Debates series, we are trading PR statements for sparring gloves. We're putting two industry heavyweights head-to-head to battle out one of the hottest topics in construction: Has AI actually solved estimating?In this no-holds-barred contester series, our contenders took the gloves off to represent the extreme Bull and Bear cases for Artificial Intelligence:• In the Red Corner: Mike "Mighty" Powers (Co-Founder, BuildVision), arguing that LLMs have solved the extraction problem and the industry needs to embrace the "Waymo" era of automation.• In the Blue Corner: Luigi "The Stinger" La Corte (Co-Founder, Provision), arguing that estimating is more than just counting symbols - and that without 100% accuracy, AI is still just a student driver.Moderated by the referee of reason, Patric "Praying For Exits" Hellermann, this debate moves through three grueling rounds: - Round 1: The Tech. Can LLMs actually count and measure complex drawings, or are they just guessing? - Round 2: The Accuracy Gap. Is 80% accuracy "good enough" to change the industry, or is "trust but verify" just a nice way of saying "do it yourself"? - Round 3: The Liability. In a world of design-bid-build, who takes the fall when the AI misses a scope gap? Tune in to uncover:• The "Waymo" Strategy: Why waiting for perfect AI is a mistake, and how to leverage the "self-driving" mindset to reduce takeoff times by 90% today.• The Hidden Liability Loophole: Why architects and engineers could solve the estimating crisis instantly by sharing models—and the legal reason they never will.• Symbols vs. Language: Learn the fundamental technical limitation preventing LLMs from reading 2D drawings like a human, and when we can expect "Visual Language Models" to catch up.• The Subcontractor's Dilemma: Why "Design Intent" matters more than counting linear feet, and why subs might actually be wasting time on granular takeoffs.• A "Bribe" for Better Data: One listener's hilarious (but practical) suggestion for how to finally get the Revit model from the design team.Who will deliver the knockout punch? Tune in to decide for yourself.Chapters 00:00 Intro01:48 Introduction to Bricks and Bytes Debates 04:07 Opening Statements and Context Setting 06:51 Technical Feasibility of AI in Estimating 09:57 Practical Applications and Limitations of AI 12:59 Customer Expectations and Accuracy in AI Solutions 15:57 The Role of Human Oversight in AI Estimation 18:43 Future of AI in Construction Estimation 38:23 Navigating the Self-Driving Debate 41:19 The Evolution of AI in Estimating 43:32 Trust and Liability in Construction 46:13 The Role of Liability in AI Adoption 49:22 The Future of Estimators in AI 53:34 Rebuttals and Admissions: A Critical Discussion 59:39 The Current State of AI in Estimating

"Knowing where the cats are is only half the battle—knowing how to reach the people who care for them is what makes targeting truly work." This episode is sponsored-in-part by Maddie's Fund. In Part 2 of this dynamic webinar, Brian Kortis of Neighborhood Cats returns to guide us through the nuts and bolts of implementing a targeted TNR program. If Part 1 was the "why," this episode is the "how." Learn how to identify where to focus your resources using data such as shelter intake, complaint calls, and community insights. Brian explains how to structure your outreach—from yard signs to door knocking—and how to overcome challenges like uncooperative caretakers or underestimated cat populations. Through real-world case studies and expert recommendations, you'll understand the importance of spatial continuity, microtargeting, and setting achievable sterilization goals, even when resources are tight. You'll also explore tools for measuring program success—whether you're tracking shelter intake, complaint reduction, or cat population decline through on-the-ground censuses. Whether you're targeting an entire city or a single block, this episode equips you with strategic tools to design and execute efficient, high-impact TNR campaigns. Press Play Now For: How to use data to pinpoint high-need areas Estimating cat populations using human-to-cat ratios Outreach methods that work: flyers, billboards, boots on the ground Who should do the trapping—and why you can't always rely on caretakers The importance of measuring results and how to adapt on the fly A new frontier: Microtargeting based on real-time shelter data Resources Mentioned: Neighborhood Cats (https://www.neighborhoodcats.org/) Additional Training (https://www.communitycatspodcast.com/conferences-and-events/) Sponsor Links: Maddie's Fund (https://www.communitycatspodcast.com/maddies643) Follow & Review We'd love for you to follow us if you haven't yet. Click that purple '+' in the top right corner of your Apple Podcasts app. We'd love it even more if you could drop a review or 5-star rating over on Apple Podcasts(https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-community-cats-podcast/id1125752101?mt=2). Select "Ratings and Reviews" and "Write a Review" then share a quick line with your favorite part of the episode. It only takes a second and it helps spread the word about the podcast.

Ever opened a pump lid and watched the pool start emptying onto the pad? We've been there, and today we map out the simple field habits that stop the flood, speed up service, and keep clients happy. From spotting below-waterline equipment to shutting down both sides of the system, we share practical, low-cost tricks that save a service day—think tennis balls in skimmers, expanding chamois in return stubs, and a checklist that prevents air leaks and lost prime.We also dig into cleaner selection with real-world guidance that cuts through confusion. On plaster and pebble, geared suction units like the Hayward PoolCleaner or Polaris Atlas/Max deliver reliable coverage, with wide-body options gliding over tall anti-vortex main drains. On vinyl and fiberglass, bouncing diaphragm cleaners shine, climbing walls and handling slopes where geared units often stall. If pressure is your plan, know the plumbing: most Polaris pressure models require a dedicated booster pump; the Polaris 360 is the rare return-side exception that runs without one when returns are set up correctly.To round it out, we clarify the heat pump vs gas heater puzzle. A heat pump needs a dedicated 220–230V electrical circuit and real amperage headroom; a gas heater needs a properly sized gas line and, often, an upgraded meter from the utility. Retrofitting either after a build adds cost and complexity, so we lay out what to check before promising a swap. The goal: fewer surprises at the pad, better system performance, and faster visits that impress clients.• Identifying equipment set below the waterline• Shutting both suction and return before opening lids• Using tennis balls and chamois rags to stop flow• Managing dual skimmers for vacuuming and cleaners• Choosing cleaners for plaster, pebble, vinyl and fiberglass• Navigating anti-vortex main drains with wide-body units• Understanding pressure cleaners and booster pumps• Differentiating heat pumps and gas heaters requirements• Estimating real costs for electrical and gas line runs• VerifyinSend us a textSupport the Pool Guy Podcast Show Sponsors! HASA https://bit.ly/HASAThe Bottom Feeder. Save $100 with Code: DVB100https://store.thebottomfeeder.com/Try Skimmer FREE for 30 days:https://getskimmer.com/poolguy Get UPA Liability Insurance $64 a month! https://forms.gle/F9YoTWNQ8WnvT4QBAPool Guy Coaching: https://bit.ly/40wFE6y

At this point, the annual “Plan with Me”-style episode feels like a sacred ritual. In today's show: Thinking through major tax changes, including why I finally ponied up for a CPA and what they'll be doing Estimating and planning with irregular income Identifying new retirement contribution targets Revisiting the slush fund concept for covering lean cash flow months Penciling out a realistic spending plan Sign up for the December 3 D.I.Y. class and see the Wealth Planner System's new features: ⁠https://www.moneywithkatie.myflodesk.com/mwk-2026-planning-party⁠ Subscribe to my weekly newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠https://moneywithkatie.com/newsletter⁠⁠⁠ Get your copy of Rich Girl Nation, one of Barnes & Noble's Best Business Books of 2025:⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.moneywithkatie.com/rich-girl-nation⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Transcripts, show notes, resources, and credits at: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.moneywithkatie.com/the_mwk_show/financially-plan-2026⁠. — Money with Katie's mission is to be the intersection where the economic, cultural, and political meet the tactical, practical, personal finance education everyone needs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today we talk with Jack Hamilton of Hamilton's Group about commercial landscaping. We get into identifying projects your company can be most competitive at, the workflow of bidding on commercial work, and what commonalities companies have that lead them to be more efficient and profitable.Sponsors:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Cycle CPA⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠PatioSEO.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Knowledge Tree Consulting Event⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠How to Hardscape Headquarters⁠

Welcome to the Master The NEC Podcast, where we go beyond code to talk business, professionalism, and mindset for electricians who want to master more than just conductors.I'm Paul Abernathy, The Electrical Guru, and today we're talking about something that stops more electricians from succeeding than competition ever could — pricing fear.You've heard it before: ‘They're cheaper than you!' … or ‘I can get my brother-in-law to do it for half.'But the real problem isn't your price — it's your confidence.Today, I'm going to show you how to charge what you're worth, how to sell your value instead of defending your rate, and how to walk into every quote knowing you're the professional — not the discount store.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/ask-paul-national-electrical-code--4971115/support.

On this episode: How much should we listen to the market predictors? The pros and cons of your 401(k) choices in retirement. Subscribe or follow so you never miss an episode! Learn more at GoldenReserve.com or follow on social: Facebook, LinkedIn and YouTube.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The guys get into the messy reality of pricing—no templates, no magic—just expectations, scope, and the triangle of quality, budget, and time. We cover scope gaps, site protection, and how pre-con (plus a little AI) de-risks the job so your estimate actually matches how the work gets built. Show Notes: 00:00:00 Intro & our awesome sponsors 00:05:22 Sick kids and water bottles 00:08:51 Welcome & rapid-fire plan 00:09:51 Estimating process overview 00:13:45 Row house example & takeoffs workflow 00:17:21 Automation vs AI in estimating 00:21:17 Using AI as an assistant, not a black box 00:31:21 Who owns scope gaps 00:43:47 Site protection that actually protects 00:47:31 Client fit and non-negotiables 00:53:13 Attracting the right clients 00:56:53 Precon course & Summit invite 01:01:46 Modern Craftsman tee & sign-off Video Version: https://youtu.be/A1BPmpmv_vQ   Partners:  Andersen Windows Buildertrend Harnish Workwear  Use code H1025 and get 10% off their H-label gear   The Modern Craftsman: linktr.ee/moderncraftsmanpodcast Find Our Hosts:  Nick Schiffer  Tyler Grace  Podcast Produced By: Motif Media

Professional Builders Secrets brings you an exclusive episode with Haydn Simmons from Price A Plan. In this episode, Hayden shares how builders can take the stress out of estimating by turning what's often an emotional, late-night task into a structured and supportive process. He dives deep into the emotional side of running a building business and how understanding those emotions can transform the way you approach estimating, client relationships, and leadership.This episode is sponsored by Apparatus Contractor Services, click the link below to learn more:hubs.ly/Q02mNSsG0INSIDE EPISODE 209 YOU WILL DISCOVER Why estimating is about more than just crunching numbersThe emotional pressures that affect builders day-to-dayHow understanding your emotions leads to better business decisionsPractical steps to manage stress and build self-awarenessThe benefits of partnering with a professional estimating serviceAnd much, much more.ABOUT HAYDN SIMMONS​Haydn, the director of Price A Plan, specialises in detailed quantity surveying and accurate pricing for all projects. Price-A-Plan offers comprehensive services benefiting various building industry professionals, from subcontractors to homeowners. Their expertise supports clients from job lead to final certificate, enhancing profitability and saving valuable time.Connect with Haydn: linkedin.com/in/haydn-simmons-705ba920/TIMELINE 2:35 Hayden's journey from builder to founder of Price A Plan4:56 The emotional pressures modern builders face11:12 How emotions influence estimating and business decisions16:25 Changing the public perception of builders through storytelling22:10 Practical ways to manage stress and build self-awareness29:45 Why estimating is more than just crunching numbersLINKS, RESOURCES & MOREAPB Website: associationofprofessionalbuilders.comAPB Rewards: associationofprofessionalbuilders.com/rewards/APB on Instagram: instagram.com/apbbuilders/APB on Facebook: facebook.com/associationofprofessionalbuildersAPB on YouTube: youtube.com/c/associationofprofessionalbuilders

You see a headline: "Study Shows Coffee Drinkers Live Longer." You share it in 3 seconds flat. But here's what just happened—you confused correlation with causation, inductive observation with deductive proof, and you just became a vector for misinformation. Right now, millions of people are doing the exact same thing, spreading beliefs they think are facts, making decisions based on patterns that don't exist, all while feeling absolutely certain they're thinking clearly.   We live in a world drowning in information—but starving for truth. Every day, you're presented with hundreds of claims, arguments, and patterns. Some are solid. Most are not. And the difference between knowing which is which and just guessing? That's the difference between making good decisions and stumbling through life confused about why things keep going wrong.   Most of us have never been taught the difference between deductive and inductive reasoning. We stumble through life applying deductive certainty to inductive guesses, treating observations as proven facts, and wondering why our conclusions keep failing us. But once we understand which type of reasoning a situation demands, we gain something powerful—the ability to calibrate our confidence appropriately, recognize manipulation, and build every other thinking skill on a foundation that actually works.   By the end of this episode, you'll possess a practical toolkit for improving your logical reasoning—four core strategies, one quick-win technique, and a practice exercise you can start today.   This is Episode 2 of Thinking 101, a new 8-part series on essential thinking skills most of us never learned in school. Links to all episodes are in the description below.       What is Logical Reasoning? But what does logical reasoning entail? At its core, there are two fundamental ways humans draw conclusions, and you're using both right now without consciously choosing between them.   Deductive reasoning moves from general principles to specific conclusions with absolute certainty. If the premises are true, the conclusion must be true. "All mammals have hearts. Dogs are mammals. Therefore, dogs have hearts." There's no wiggle room—if those first two statements are true, the conclusion is guaranteed. This is the realm of mathematics, formal logic, and established law.   Inductive reasoning works in reverse, building from specific observations toward general principles with varying degrees of probability. You observe patterns and infer likely explanations. "I've seen 1,000 swans and they were all white, therefore all swans are probably white." This feels certain, but it's actually just highly probable based on limited evidence. History proved this reasoning wrong when black swans were discovered in Australia.   Both are tools. Neither is "better." The question is which tool fits the job—and whether you're using it correctly.       Loss of Logical Reasoning Skills Why does this matter? Because across every domain of life, this reasoning confusion is costing us.   In our social media consumption, we're drowning in inductive reasoning disguised as deductive proof. Researchers at MIT found that fake news spreads ten times faster than accurate reporting. Why? Because misleading content exploits this confusion. You see a viral post claiming "New study proves smartphones cause depression in teenagers," with graphs and official-looking citations. What you're actually seeing is inductive correlation presented as deductive causation—researchers observed that depressed teenagers often use smartphones more, but that doesn't prove smartphones caused the depression.   And this is where it gets truly terrifying—I need you to hear this carefully:   In 2015, researchers tried to replicate 100 psychology studies published in top scientific journals. Only 36% held up. Read that again: Nearly two-thirds of peer-reviewed, published research couldn't be reproduced. And those false studies? Still being cited. Still shaping policy. Still being shared as "science proves." You're building your worldview on a foundation where 64% of the bricks are made of air.   In our personal relationships, we constantly make inductive inferences about people's intentions and treat them as deductive facts. Your partner forgets to text back three times this week. You observe the pattern, inductively infer "they're losing interest," then act with deductive certainty—becoming distant, accusatory, or defensive. But what if those three instances had three different explanations? What if the pattern we detected isn't actually a pattern at all? We say "you always" or "you never" based on three data points. We end relationships over patterns that never existed.   So why didn't anyone teach us this? Traditional schooling focuses on teaching us what to think—facts, formulas, established knowledge. Deductive reasoning gets attention in math class as a mechanical process for solving equations. Inductive reasoning gets buried in science class, completely disconnected from actual decision-making. We graduated with facts crammed into our heads but no framework for evaluating new claims.   But that changes now.       How To Improve Your Logical Reasoning You now understand the two reasoning systems and why mixing them up is costing you. Let's fix that. These five strategies will give you immediate control over your logical reasoning—starting with the most foundational skill and building to a technique you can use in your next conversation. Label Your Reasoning Type The first step to improving your logical reasoning is becoming aware of which system you're using—and we rarely stop to check.   We flip between deductive and inductive thinking dozens of times per day without realizing it. You see your colleague get promoted after working late, and you instantly conclude that working late leads to promotion—that's inductive. But you're treating it like a deductive rule: "If I work late, I WILL get promoted." The moment you label which type you're using, you regain control.   Start with a daily reasoning journal. At the end of each day, write down three conclusions you made—about people, work, news, anything.   For each conclusion, ask: "What evidence led me here?" If it's general rules applied to specifics (all mammals have hearts, dogs are mammals), you used deduction. If it's patterns from observations (I've seen this three times), you used induction.   Label each one: "D" for deductive, "I" for inductive. This creates conscious awareness. You'll likely find 80-90% of your daily reasoning is inductive—but you've been treating it as deductive certainty.   When you catch yourself saying "always," "never," "definitely," stop and ask: "Is this deductive certainty or inductive probability?" That single pause changes everything.   Practice in real-time during conversations. When someone makes a claim, silently label it: deductive or inductive? Weak reasoning becomes obvious instantly.   After one week of journaling, review your entries. Patterns emerge in your reasoning errors—specific topics where you consistently overstate certainty, or people you make assumptions about. This awareness is the foundation for improvement.       Calibrate Your Confidence Once you've labeled your reasoning type, the next step is matching your certainty level to the strength of your evidence.   Here's where most people fail: they feel 100% certain about conclusions built on three observations. Your brain doesn't naturally calibrate—it defaults to "this feels true, therefore it IS true." But when you explicitly assign probability levels to inductive conclusions, you stop making the most common reasoning error: treating patterns as proven facts.   For every inductive conclusion, assign a percentage. "Given these five observations, I'm 60% confident this pattern is real." Never use 100% for inductive reasoning—by definition, inductive conclusions are probabilistic, not certain.   Use this language shift in conversations: Replace "You always ignore my suggestions" with "I've brought up ideas in the last two meetings and haven't heard feedback, which makes me about 40% confident there's a communication pattern worth discussing." Replace "This definitely works" with "From what I've seen, I'm 70% confident this approach is effective."   Create a certainty threshold for action. Decide: "I need 70% confidence before I make a major decision based on inductive reasoning." This prevents impulsive moves based on weak patterns. Below 50%? Keep observing. Above 80%? Worth acting on.   Keep a confidence log for one week. Write your predictions with probability levels ("80% confident it will rain tomorrow," "60% confident this project will succeed"). Then check if you were right. This trains your calibration. You'll discover whether you're overstating or understating your certainty—and you can adjust.   When someone presents "definitive" claims based on inductive evidence, ask: "What certainty level would you assign that? 60%? 90%?" Watch them realize they've been overstating their case. This question immediately disrupts manipulation.       Hunt for Contradictions Your brain naturally seeks confirming evidence and ignores contradictions—this strategy forces you to do the opposite.   Confirmation bias is the enemy of good inductive reasoning. Once you believe something, your brain becomes a heat-seeking missile for evidence that supports it. The only antidote? Actively hunt for evidence that contradicts your conclusion. It's uncomfortable, yes, but it's the difference between being right and feeling right.   For every inductive conclusion you reach, set a 24-hour "contradiction hunt." Your job is to find at least two pieces of evidence that contradict your conclusion. If you believe "remote work increases productivity," you must find credible sources claiming the opposite.   Use search terms designed to find opposites. Search for "remote work decreases productivity study" or "evidence against intermittent fasting." Force-feed yourself the other side. Google's algorithm wants to confirm your beliefs—you have to actively fight it.   Create a contradiction column in your reasoning journal. For each conclusion (left column), list contradicting evidence (right column). If you can't find any contradictions, you haven't looked hard enough—or you're in an echo chamber.   In debates or discussions, argue the opposite position for 5 minutes. Seriously. If you believe X, spend 5 minutes making the best possible case for NOT X. This breaks confirmation bias and reveals holes in your reasoning you couldn't see before.   Before sharing anything on social media, spend 2 minutes actively searching for contradicting evidence. Search "[claim] debunked" or "[claim] false" or look for the opposite perspective. If you find credible contradictions, pause. The claim is disputed. Either don't share it, or share it with context like "Interesting claim, though [credible source] disputes this because..." This habit trains you to think critically before becoming a misinformation vector.       Question the Sample Most bad inductive reasoning fails the sample size test—and almost no one thinks to ask. Here's the manipulation technique you need to spot: Someone shows you three examples and declares a universal truth. "I know three people who got rich with crypto, therefore crypto makes everyone rich." Three examples. Seven billion people. Your brain treats this as evidence—until you ask about the total number. This question alone dismantles 90% of weak arguments. Every time someone makes an inductive claim, ask out loud: "How many observations is that based on?" Three? Thirty? Three thousand? The number matters enormously. One person's experience is an anecdote. Ten similar experiences start to suggest a pattern. A hundred becomes meaningful. A thousand builds real confidence. Learn the rough sample sizes for different certainty levels. For casual patterns: 10-20 observations. For moderate confidence: 100-500. For high confidence: 1,000+. For scientific certainty: 10,000+. Five examples claiming certainty? That's weak, and now you know it. Always check the total number—whether it's called sample size, denominator, or population. When someone shows examples or cites a study, ask: "Out of how many total?" Three testimonials mean nothing without knowing if it's 3 out of 10 (30% success rate) or 3 out of 10,000 (0.03%). When reading headlines like "Study shows X," click through and find the sample size. "Study of 12 people" is not the same as "Study of 12,000 people." The total number is usually hidden because it reveals how weak the claim really is. In your own reasoning, track your sample. Before concluding "this restaurant is always slow," count: how many times have you been there? Three? That's not "always"—that's barely data. You need at least 10 visits across different times and days before you can claim a pattern. Challenge yourself: Can you find a larger sample that contradicts your small sample? If your three experiences clash with 3,000 online reviews saying the opposite, which should you trust? The larger sample wins unless you have specific reasons to believe it's biased.       The One-Word Test (Quick Win) Here's a technique you can implement in the next 30 seconds that will immediately improve your logical reasoning: stop using absolute language.   Every time you're about to say "always" or "never," catch yourself and replace it with "usually" or "rarely." Every time you're about to say "definitely" or "certainly," use "probably" or "likely" instead.   This single word swap trains your brain to think probabilistically. It acknowledges that most of your reasoning is inductive—based on patterns, not guarantees. And here's the bonus: people will perceive you as more credible because you're not overstating your case.   Try it right now in your next conversation. Watch how often you reach for absolute language—and how much clearer your thinking becomes when you don't use it.       Practice The most effective way to internalize these strategies is through practice with real-world scenarios. The Pattern Detective Challenge Find three claims from your social media feed today—anything that declares a pattern, trend, or "truth" (health advice, political claims, life advice, product recommendations).   For each claim, identify: Is this deductive or inductive reasoning? Write it down. Most will be inductive disguised as deductive. "This supplement WILL boost your energy" sounds deductive, but it's based on inductive observations.   If inductive, assess the sample size. How many observations is this based on? One person's testimonial? A study? How many participants? Is the sample representative of the broader population?   Assign a certainty level. Given the sample size and quality of evidence, what probability would you assign this claim? 30%? 60%? 90%? Be honest—most will be below 70%.   Hunt for contradictions. Spend 5 minutes finding evidence that contradicts the claim. Can you find it? How credible is it? Does it have a larger sample size than the original claim?   Rewrite the claim with calibrated language. Change "Intermittent fasting WILL make you healthier" to "From studies of X people, intermittent fasting appears to improve some health markers for some people, though individual results vary—confidence level: 65%."   Share your analysis with someone. Explain your reasoning process. Teaching others reinforces your own learning and reveals gaps you didn't notice.   Repeat this exercise 3 times per week for one month. By the end, automatic evaluation becomes second nature. You won't need to think about it—it just happens.       The Rewards The journey of improving your logical reasoning is ongoing, but the rewards compound quickly.   You become nearly impossible to manipulate. When you can spot the difference between inductive observation and deductive proof, 90% of manipulation tactics stop working. The car salesman's pitch falls flat. The political ad looks transparent. The social media rage-bait loses its power.   Your relationships improve dramatically. When you stop saying "you always" and start saying "I've noticed this three times," you create space for understanding instead of defensiveness. Conflicts become conversations. Assumptions become questions.   Your professional credibility skyrockets. Leaders who can distinguish between strong deductive arguments and weak inductive patterns make better strategic decisions. When you speak with calibrated confidence—saying "I'm 70% confident" instead of "I'm absolutely certain"—people trust your judgment more, not less.   You build a foundation for every other thinking skill. Spotting logical fallacies, evaluating evidence, resisting cognitive biases, asking better questions—all of these depend on understanding which type of reasoning you're using and which type the situation demands.   You're not just learning a thinking skill—you're installing psychological armor that most people don't even know exists. And in a world where manipulation is the norm, that makes you dangerous to anyone trying to control you. Every week on Substack, I go deeper—sharing personal examples, failed experiments, and lessons I couldn't fit in the video. It's like the director's cut. This week's Substack deep dive into a logical reasoning failure can be found at: https://philmckinney.substack.com/p/kroger-copied-hps-innovation-playbook        Your Thinking 101 Journey This is Episode 2 of Thinking 101: The Essential Skills They Never Taught You—an 8-part foundation series where each episode unlocks the next.   If you missed Episode 1, "Why Thinking Skills Matter Now More Than Ever," start there. It explains why this entire skillset has become essential.   Up next: Episode 3, "Causal Thinking: Beyond Correlation." You'll learn how to distinguish between things that simply happen together and things that actually cause each other—transforming how you evaluate health claims, business strategies, and relationship patterns.   Hit that subscribe button so you don't miss any future episodes. Also - hit the like and notification bell. It helps with the algorithm so others see our content. Why not share this video with a coworker or a family member who you think would benefit from it? …     Because right now, while you've been watching this, someone just shared a lie that felt like truth. The only question is: will you be able to tell the difference?     SOURCES CITED IN THIS EPISODE MIT Media Lab – Misinformation Spread Rate Vosoughi, S., Roy, D., & Aral, S. (2018). The spread of true and false news online. Science, 359(6380), 1146-1151. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aap9559 Indiana University – Misinformation Superspreaders DeVerna, M. R., Aiyappa, R., Pacheco, D., Bryden, J., & Menczer, F. (2024). Identifying and characterizing superspreaders of low-credibility content on Twitter. PLOS ONE, 19(5), e0302201. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0302201 Open Science Collaboration – The Replication Crisis Open Science Collaboration. (2015). Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science. Science, 349(6251), aac4716. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac4716     ADDITIONAL READING On Inductive Reasoning and Uncertainty Taleb, N. N. (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Random House. On Cognitive Biases and Decision-Making Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux. On Confirmation Bias Nickerson, R. S. (1998). Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises. Review of General Psychology, 2(2), 175-220. https://doi.org/10.1037/1089-2680.2.2.175 On Scientific Reproducibility Ioannidis, J. P. A. (2005). Why most published research findings are false. PLOS Medicine, 2(8), e124. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124       Note: All sources cited in this episode have been accessed and verified as of October 2025. The studies referenced are peer-reviewed academic research published in reputable scientific journals, including Science and PLOS ONE.  

Miljan is the Founder and CEO of Primal. Bitcoin is an open protocol for money, nostr is an open protocol for speech, Primal brings the power of both into an easy to use interface for everyone.Search Primal in your favorite app store!Miljan on Nostr: https://primal.net/miljanEPISODE: 180BLOCK: 917284PRICE: 842 sats per dollar(00:00) Ten31 retreat(01:02) Retreat impressions and collaboration(01:32) How many bitcoiners(03:01) Estimating self custody users and real audience sizes(05:09) Stalled growth and focusing Primal on Bitcoiners(06:07) Curated "Getting Started" invite packs(09:14) Solving empty feeds: recommendations vs. decentralization(12:02) Improving follow discovery(14:53) Retention over onboarding: first-touch UX matters(16:11) Empowering users with tools, not surveillance models(18:08) Aligning incentives: Primal's user-paid model(19:42) Live streaming on Nostr: open spec meets clean UI(22:20) Not competing with TikTok: high-signal over dopamine(25:06) Platform risk for streamers and Nostr's modular freedom(28:05) Unified chat, zaps, and the magic of interoperable apps(29:25) Nostr's organic growth(31:06) Creators' final destination(34:50) AI in social: open models, features, and roadmap thoughts(41:05) Deepfakes, authenticity, and signed content value(46:02) Keys, key-rotation, and building resilient identity tools(49:28) Practical key management: tradeoffs from phone to multisig(53:12) Closing thoughtsmore info on the show: https://citadeldispatch.comlearn more about me: https://odell.xyz

In the final installment of this special series on waterfowl harvest estimation, Drs. Kathy Fleming and Paul Padding discuss the 2 critical surveys that are part of this process:  Migratory Bird Hunter Survey and Parts Collection Survey.  This episode sheds light on how these data are collected and used, and why none of this would be possible without the interest, cooperation, and participation by hunters.Listen now: www.ducks.org/DUPodcastSend feedback: DUPodcast@ducks.org

In part 2 of this series on waterfowl harvest estimation, Drs. Kathy Fleming and Paul Padding go in-depth on the Harvest Information Program, known to most people simply as “HIP,” to explain how it works and how the data are used to select hunters for participating in the core surveys from which harvest is estimated. We also discuss additional uses of waterfowl harvest data. Listen now: www.ducks.org/DUPodcastSend feedback: DUPodcast@ducks.org

Waterfowl hunters harvest 12–14 million ducks and 3 million geese annually in the U.S.  The process used to estimate annual waterfowl harvest has several components and relies on the cooperation and participation by State wildlife agencies, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and most importantly waterfowl hunters. Drs. Kathy Fleming and Paul Padding of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service join Dr. Mike Brasher to help explain the harvest estimation process and some of the important uses of these estimates. This is episode 1 of a 3-part series. Listen now: www.ducks.org/DUPodcastSend feedback: DUPodcast@ducks.org

We're going to show you how to make any rental property cash flow as soon as you buy it. Want to know how to analyze a rental property like a pro? This is how. Expert investors don't just crunch the numbers once and submit an offer or reject it—that's an easy way to miss out on the best real estate deals. Instead, we're showing you how we tweak specific numbers in your offer to make the deal as profitable as possible, while giving the seller many ways to say “yes.” Today, our friend and fellow investor, Ashley Kehr from the Real Estate Rookie podcast, brought us a real deal she's debating on buying. Here are the quick numbers: it's a triplex (three units) being sold by a tired landlord. The price seems reasonable, but the expenses may be too high. We use the BiggerPockets Rental Property Calculator to run the numbers and see if it cash flows, then tweak the offer in multiple different ways to boost the returns substantially. Now, Ashley is taking these offers to the seller. Yes, offers—plural—to see which one they'll choose. Either way, Ashley is in a position to make more money from this rental than before, and all she had to do was get a little creative. Today, we're showing you, too, how to make any real estate deal cash flow. In This Episode We Cover How to analyze a rental property from start to finish (and calculate an offer) Seller financing vs. bank loans: how to give the seller the choice so you both benefit  Estimating rents and how to ensure that your units will bring in enough revenue  The numbers you can “manipulate” to make your rental cash flow more  The three final offers Ashley will be giving this seller, and why you should not submit just one  And So Much More! Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/real-estate-1166 Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's the situation every real estate investor wants to be in: your house just appraised for more than you expected. Now, you've got some home equity added to your net worth, but how do you use it? Should you keep it in the property and maintain low leverage, or use home equity to scale your real estate portfolio more quickly? We're answering common real estate questions like this one and a lot more in today's show! James Dainard joins the show as our veteran real estate investor, owning hundreds of rental units, flipping thousands of houses, and lending millions of dollars. He started as a rookie during the Great Financial Crisis, and today, he's sharing his hard-earned lessons so you don't have to make the same mistakes. We're touching on: What to do with your home equity when your house appraises high How to estimate rehab costs on a renovation or house flip  Becoming a private money lender (serious passive income!) Interior design 101, even if you have zero experience in home renovations  Whether we should finally kill the 1% rule in real estate (maybe it's time) Got an investing question? Ask yours on the BiggerPockets Forums!  In This Episode We Cover How to use home equity to invest (and whether you should with 7% mortgage rates) Estimating renovation costs on your next rehab or house flip (for free!) Interior design on a budget and how to build a “spec list” of what your house flip needs Private money lending for beginners and how to (passively) make serious cash flow The 1% rule explained and why it isn't so safe in 2025  And So Much More! Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/real-estate-1148 Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices