Podcasts about estimating

Listen in as our expert panel untangles the latest recommendations for using equations to estimate kidney function. You'll hear their insights on when and how to use creatinine, cystatin C, or both to help safely adjust medication doses in kidney disease.Special guests:Erin F. Barreto, PharmD, PhD, FCCM, FASN, BCCCPAssociate Professor of Medicine and PharmacyMayo ClinicTracy Anderson-Haag, PharmD, BCPS, BCTXPClinical Pharmacy Specialist-TransplantationResidency Program Director, PGY-2 Solid Organ TransplantHennepin HealthcareNone of the speakers have anything to disclose. This podcast is an excerpt from one of TRC's monthly live CE webinars, the full webinar originally aired in June 2026.

A methods-focused episode about how muscle and body-composition measurements can mislead you when reading the research. The main event is a new Balshaw and colleagues paper concluding that ultrasound muscle thickness is a poor index of MRI-measured muscle growth. Trexler and Helms argue this shouldn't be read as "throw out all ultrasound research" — the real culprit is that muscle thickness is a crude one-dimensional snapshot with measurement error large enough to swamp the small changes seen in typical short studies, whereas MRI captures growth in more dimensions with better fidelity. They walk through why comparing across different dimensions and different devices matters, what researchers can do about it (bigger doses, larger samples, multiple measurements), and use the famous "sleep restriction kills your gains by 60%" study as an example of over-reading a tiny difference in ten people. The second half turns to DEXA. Prompted by someone confused that DEXA fat mass didn't line up with the 3,500-calorie rule, they explain DEXA's three-compartment model, why it measures fat mass rather than adipose tissue, and why lean soft tissue readings are so sensitive to hydration. The practical upshot: don't build your worldview on a kilogram of day-to-day DEXA noise, be cautious using DEXA to estimate energy status, and understand that flattening a three-dimensional body into a two-dimensional scan introduces real limits. They close with an extended, tongue-in-cheek bit about trademarking "muscle journey" dimensions. Iron Culture is proudly presented by the MASS Research Review. Mostly because Helms and Trex are co-owners. massresearchreview.com If you're in the market for some new (ultra-high-quality) gym gear or apparel, be sure to use code "MRR10" for a 10% discount over at elitefts.com If you'd like to submit a question for a future episode, head over to: massresearchreview.com/ironculture Chapters 0:00 Intro 5:57 The paper: is ultrasound a poor muscle-growth measure? 18:04 What muscle thickness actually captures 25:38 Measurement error vs. a tiny signal 31:16 Different dimensions, different devices 37:52 What researchers should do about it 39:26 Case study: does sleep loss "kill gains"? 47:28 On to DEXA: where this started 53:26 How DEXA works & why fat mass ≠ adipose tissue 1:02:15 Why methods don't always agree 1:11:06 Water weight & the whooshing scale 1:16:43 Estimating energy status from DEXA 1:19:36 Wrap-up

From the Mythos preview system card (emphasis mine): We ran an automated review of model behavior during training, sampling several hundred thousand transcripts from across much of the training process. We used recursive-summarization-based tools backed by Claude Opus 4.6 to summarize the resulting transcripts. [...] The most notable finding was that the model occasionally circumvented network restrictions in its training environment to access the internet and download data that let it shortcut the assigned task—a form of reward hacking. While highly concerning, this behavior was rare, even in settings where it could have been viable and helpful, with attempts appearing in about 0.05% of all training episodes and successful attempts appearing in about 0.01% of episodes. The technique matched the sandbox-escape incident that we separately elicited in our automated behavioral audit when we had an investigator model explicitly ask Claude Mythos Preview to find such a bypass. In every observed instance, the model used this access solely for completing the task. More broadly, we observed the model escalating its access within its execution environment when blocked: reaching a shell from restricted GUI computer-use interfaces, injecting commands through tool-call arguments, or recovering information the task had deliberately hidden. Prompts asking [...] ---Outline:(03:00) Thoughts and reflections about this probable fact(04:14) Estimating how many RL rollouts went into Mythos Preview The original text contained 3 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: July 27th, 2026 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QKDoZe6EKhxnFjLWK/is-mythos-good-at-cyber-because-it-kept-hacking-anthropic --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

The Truth About Drug Raids and Police Working Undercover: What Can Go Wrong in Seconds. A carefully planned police operation can descend into chaos in a matter of seconds. Retired Akron, Ohio, police officer Timothy Dimoff knows that reality firsthand. The Law Enforcement Talk Radio Show and Podcast social media like their Facebook , Instagram , LinkedIn , Medium and other social media platforms. During his law enforcement career, he worked undercover narcotics investigations and participated in dangerous drug raids alongside SWAT teams. The Podcast is available for free on the Law Enforcement Talk Radio Show and Podcast website, also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, iHeartradio and most major podcast platforms. #LawEnforcementTalk #Free #Podcast #Radio During one operation, a distraction device, commonly called a flash-bang or percussion grenade, was reportedly deployed incorrectly. In the confusion that followed, Dimoff was injured. Supporting articles about this and much more from Law Enforcement Talk Radio Show and Podcast in platforms like Medium , Blogspot and Linkedin. His experience offers a rare look behind the badge at the risks of undercover police work, the unpredictable nature of drug raids, and the major changes that have made modern search-warrant operations more methodical and focused on safety. The Truth About Drug Raids and Police Working Undercover: What Can Go Wrong in Seconds. Dimoff shares his remarkable story on the Law Enforcement Talk Radio Show and Podcast, available through Apple, Spotify, YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, and other social media platforms. What Are Drug Raids? The phrase “drug raid” is commonly used to describe a police operation designed to search a location for illegal drugs, weapons, evidence, or wanted suspects. In legal and law enforcement settings, these operations may be called search-warrant executions or search-and-seizure operations. Before officers can legally search most private properties, investigators generally must gather evidence, prepare an affidavit, and present their findings to a judge. If the Court determines that probable cause exists, a search warrant may be issued. The Truth About Drug Raids and Police Working Undercover: What Can Go Wrong in Seconds. Executing that warrant, however, can be the most dangerous part of the investigation. The conversation is available on the Law Enforcement Talk Radio Show and Podcast website, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeartRadio, and most other major podcast platforms, where audiences continue discovering firsthand accounts from those who have lived them. Officers may have little reliable information about what awaits them inside the location. Potential risks can include: Armed suspects Barricaded doors Surveillance cameras Guard dogs Hidden weapons Fortified entry points Innocent family members or children Suspects attempting to destroy evidence Bystanders who do not understand what is happening Even after extensive planning, no officer can predict exactly how the people inside will respond when police arrive. Dimoff's experience demonstrates why these operations demand training, discipline, communication, and careful coordination. The Reality of Police Working Undercover Undercover narcotics work is far different from the polished version often portrayed on television. The Truth About Drug Raids and Police Working Undercover: What Can Go Wrong in Seconds. The episode is available across major platforms including their website, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, with highlights shared across their Facebook, Instagram, and LinkedIn profiles. Police officers working undercover may enter unpredictable environments without a visible uniform, marked patrol vehicle, or the immediate protection that normally identifies them as law enforcement officers. They may meet suspected drug dealers, make controlled purchases, gather intelligence, identify criminal organizations, and help build cases that eventually lead to arrests and Court proceedings. The danger is constant. One mistake, unexpected question, or suspicious reaction can expose an undercover officer's identity. If that happens, the officer may be surrounded by dangerous suspects with no obvious way out. For undercover officers, every conversation requires focus. Every movement may be watched. Every exit must be considered. Dimoff speaks about this demanding side of police work and the pressure officers experience while investigating narcotics crimes. His firsthand account goes beyond the dramatic images often seen on social media and reveals how quickly a seemingly controlled operation can become life-threatening. The Drug Raid That Injured Him While serving with the Akron Police Department in Ohio, Dimoff participated in narcotics operations involving SWAT personnel. During one drug raid, officers used a percussion grenade as part of the tactical entry. These devices are designed to create a sudden burst of light and sound, temporarily distracting or disorienting people inside a location. The Truth About Drug Raids and Police Working Undercover: What Can Go Wrong in Seconds. Available for free on the Law Enforcement Talk Radio Show and Podcast website, also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Youtube and most major Podcast networks. They are not toys, and they are not harmless. If a flash-bang is deployed in the wrong location, bounces unexpectedly, or lands too close to an officer or civilian, it can cause serious injuries. The enclosed environment of a house or apartment can make its effects even more intense. During the operation Dimoff describes, the device was misdirected. He was injured in the confusion and physical struggle that followed. His story illustrates an uncomfortable truth about drug raids: even when trained officers and SWAT teams are present, something can still go wrong. A device can land in an unintended place. A suspect can respond unexpectedly. An officer can lose sight of another team member. A room can contain hazards that were not visible during surveillance. Plans matter, but conditions can change instantly. Why Police Use Flash-Bang Devices Flash-bang devices are intended to create a temporary tactical advantage during high-risk operations. The sudden light and explosive sound may distract occupants long enough for officers to enter, locate threats, and gain control of the scene. Their purpose is generally to reduce a suspect's ability to attack officers, reach a weapon, escape, or destroy evidence. However, the use of these devices requires sound judgment. Before deployment, tactical teams may consider: The seriousness of the suspected crime Whether firearms are believed to be present The suspect's criminal and violent history The presence of children or vulnerable adults The physical design of the building Available intelligence about the occupants The possibility of fire or other environmental hazards Whether less dangerous alternatives are available Dimoff's injury underscores why proper placement, timing, training, and communication are essential. The Truth About Drug Raids and Police Working Undercover: What Can Go Wrong in Seconds. The Podcast is available for free on the Law Enforcement Talk Radio Show and Podcast website, also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, iHeartradio and most major podcast platforms. The device is only one part of the operation. The safety of officers, suspects, families, and neighbors depends on the entire team understanding the plan and responding correctly when circumstances change. Drug Raids Have Changed Since the 1980s According to Dimoff, drug raids have evolved considerably since the 1980s. Earlier operations often involved different levels of training, equipment, intelligence, and tactical coordination. Over time, police agencies learned from injuries, fatalities, lawsuits, Court decisions, and reviews of operations that did not go as planned. Modern search-warrant executions are generally more deliberate and methodical. Depending on the agency and the level of risk, planning may include surveillance, threat assessments, photographs, diagrams, medical support, designated assignments, and detailed briefings. Officers may study: The number and identities of occupants Known weapons Criminal histories Possible escape routes Nearby homes and businesses The location of children Surveillance systems Dogs or other animals Doors, windows, fences, and other obstacles The safest time and method of approach Teams may also establish contingency plans in case the primary entry method fails. These improvements cannot eliminate every danger, but they may significantly reduce unnecessary risks. The goal is not simply to enter quickly. The goal is to execute a lawful warrant, secure the scene, preserve evidence, and protect everyone involved. How Common Are Tactical Drug Raids? Estimating the precise number of drug raids conducted across the United States is difficult because reporting practices vary among federal, state, county, and local agencies. The Truth About Drug Raids and Police Working Undercover: What Can Go Wrong in Seconds. The Law Enforcement Talk Radio Show and Podcast continues bringing listeners real conversations from the front lines of crime, policing, trauma, survival, and healing. Some criminology estimates suggest tactical entries and search-warrant operations affect tens of thousands of people each year. Various independent estimates have placed the number of no-knock or quick-knock operations at approximately 20,000 annually. Other estimates suggest that drug searches historically represented a large percentage of tactical or SWAT deployments. These figures should be viewed cautiously because there is no single nationwide system that consistently categorizes and tracks every tactical warrant service in the same way. What is clear is that these operations are not rare. Thousands of officers and civilians may be affected by them each year, making training, oversight, accurate intelligence, and safety procedures critically important. No-Knock and Quick-Knock Entries Not every search warrant is executed in the same manner. During a traditional knock-and-announce operation, officers identify themselves and announce their purpose before entering. A no-knock warrant may permit entry without the customary announcement when legally authorized and justified by specific circumstances. Quick-knock operations may involve officers announcing their presence but entering shortly afterward because of an identified threat or concern. Supporters of rapid-entry tactics argue that they may prevent armed resistance, escape, or the destruction of evidence. Critics raise concerns about mistaken addresses, injuries to innocent occupants, confusion, and violent confrontations when residents do not immediately realize that the people entering are police officers. These competing concerns have led to major public debates, policy reviews, legislative changes, and Court challenges. Supporting articles about this and much more from Law Enforcement Talk Radio Show and Podcast in platforms like Medium , Blogspot and Linkedin. Dimoff's story contributes an important perspective to that discussion. The risks are not limited to suspects or civilians. Police officers can also be seriously injured when tactical equipment is misdirected or an operation breaks down. What Television and Social Media Often Miss Drug raids are frequently reduced to short, dramatic video clips on Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, and other social media platforms. Viewers might see a door forced open, officers shouting commands, or suspects placed in handcuffs. What they usually do not see are the days, weeks, or months of investigative work that took place beforehand. The Truth About Drug Raids and Police Working Undercover: What Can Go Wrong in Seconds. The episode is available across major platforms including their website, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, with highlights shared across their Facebook, Instagram, and LinkedIn profiles. They may never see the undercover officer who gathered the original evidence, the detective who prepared the search-warrant affidavit, the judge who reviewed it, or the tactical team that spent hours planning the entry. They also may not see what happens after the raid. Evidence must be documented and secured. Reports must be written. Suspects may appear in Court. Officers may be questioned by prosecutors and defense attorneys. Every significant decision may be examined in detail. A tactical operation that lasts only minutes can produce a legal case that continues for months or years. That is why accuracy and professionalism matter at every stage, from the undercover investigation to the final courtroom testimony. The Emotional Impact of Dangerous Police Work Physical injuries are often visible. The emotional effects of police work can be much harder to recognize. An officer injured during a drug raid may replay the incident repeatedly, wondering what could have happened differently. Other team members may question whether they missed a warning sign or could have prevented the injury. Undercover officers face additional pressure because they must repeatedly enter environments where their safety depends on maintaining a false identity. They cannot always display fear, ask openly for help, or leave when they feel uncomfortable. When an operation goes wrong, the effects can follow an officer long after the scene has been cleared. Dimoff's willingness to discuss his experience helps the public understand that the risks of law enforcement do not end when the arrest is made. From Police Officer to Security Consultant After retiring from police work, Dimoff moved into security consulting. His transition allowed him to apply the lessons he learned in narcotics investigations, tactical operations, and street-level law enforcement to helping others recognize and manage risk. Former police officers can bring a valuable perspective to security work because they have seen how criminals identify vulnerabilities and exploit routines. They understand that safety is not based solely on equipment. It also depends on preparation, communication, awareness, and the ability to respond under pressure. Dimoff's injury became part of a much larger professional story, one that continued after he left the police department. His experience serves as a reminder that knowledge gained through difficult moments can later be used to protect businesses, organizations, and individuals. Follow the Law Enforcement Talk Radio Show and Podcast on their website, on Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other social media platforms for more compelling interviews with police officers, investigators, authors, and first responders who reveal the realities behind the badge. An Important Conversation About Police and Public Safety Discussions about drug raids often become deeply divided. Some people focus on the dangers officers face when entering locations associated with drugs, weapons, and violent suspects. Others emphasize the risks to families, neighbors, and innocent occupants when police intelligence is incomplete or tactical operations go wrong. Both concerns involve safety. Dimoff's experience reveals why the subject cannot be reduced to slogans. Search-warrant executions involve law, human judgment, imperfect information, and rapidly changing conditions. Accountability matters. Training matters. Court oversight matters. Accurate intelligence matters. So does understanding the difficult decisions officers may be forced to make in seconds. The strongest public conversations begin when people move beyond viral social media clips and listen to those who have lived through these operations. Listen to Timothy Dimoff's Amazing Story Timothy Dimoff's interview provides a firsthand account of undercover narcotics work, dangerous drug raids, tactical policing, and the operation that left him injured. His story also explores how police training has evolved since the 1980s and why today's tactical teams place greater emphasis on planning, coordination, and safety. The Law Enforcement Talk Radio Show and Podcast shares real stories from police officers, first responders, military veterans, survivors, and others whose lives have been changed by crime and trauma. Listeners can find the show across Apple, Spotify, YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, and other podcast and social media platforms. Learn and get access to money saving tips and how to increase your net worth at www.LetSavings.com Download the Free Ebook about ways and tips to improve your health. You can get the ebook for free at www.LetHealthy.com Get the Free Clubhouse App, it is Drop In Social Audio. Think of it as your own talk radio show on your phone, and best of all it is free. Be sure to look for me and follow me, that's John J Wiley or @letradioshow you can do all that here. The Law Enforcement Talk Radio Show and Podcast social media like their Facebook , Instagram , LinkedIn , Medium and other social media platforms. You can contact John J. “Jay” Wiley by email at Jay@letradio.com , or learn more about him on their website . Find a wide variety of great podcasts online at The Podcast Zone Facebook Page , look for the one with the bright green logo. Be sure to check out our website . Listen to the Law Enforcement Talk Radio Show and Podcast on their website, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeartRadio, and most major podcast platforms. Be sure to follow us on X , Instagram , Facebook, Pinterest, Linkedin and other social media platforms for the latest episodes and news. The Truth About Drug Raids and Police Working Undercover: What Can Go Wrong in Seconds. Attributions Wikipedia Akron Police Department SACS Consulting Facebook Facebook Group Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode, the guys talk about Is the Cabinet full, or should we go shopping? and how we decide if its time to go out to look for new jobs here at Berg.

In this episode, the guys start off with Regional Quirkisms from the Land Down Undah.  They then interview Cindy Cale, DNA expert from DNA Mavens, a consulting and training company in Houston, TX.  Cindy will discuss 3 topics, all related to testimony of the activity level, with respect to DNA, as well as discuss validation issues in DNA. They first discuss a recent DNA testimony case report titled "DNA analyst's refusal to answer an activity level question did not violate the defendant's right to confrontation" from the Journal of Forensic Sciences (2026; 71:1063-1069) by Ted Hunt.  The paper reviews a U.S. Court's reaction to a DNA Analyst who refused to offer any testimony regarding activity level and DNA.  Then they discuss a Minnesota case in which Cindy testified for the defense, where the State lab was attempting to introduce a complex 5+ person mixture of DNA from firearms [MN v. Exavier Porter; 55-CR-22-7394].  Defense was ultimately successful in excluding the evidence from trial.  Finally, they discuss a second Minnesota case, in which Cindy testified, where the State was attempting to introduce another complicated mixture from a firearm, and make inferences about activity level [MN v. Garry Bell; 62-CR-24-1146].  The evidence was suppressed in this case as well.  The guys make parallels to the fingerprint community and why it's important that fingerprint experts pay attention to these issues popping up in DNA. Episode References: DNA Mavens: https://dnamavens.com/ Cindy's email: ccale@dnamavens.com Hunt TR. DNA analyst's refusal to answer an activity level question did not violate the defendant's right to confrontation. J Forensic Sci. 2026; 71: 1063–1069. https://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.70266 Minnesota v. Exavier Porter; 55-CR-22-7394 order: https://forensicresources.org/resources/state-v-porter-memorandum-and-order-mn-2025/ Minnesota v. Gerry Bell; 62-CR-24-1146, Ramsey County, St. Paul, MN Minnesota v. Alexander Taylor; 69DU-CR-19-2984, St. Louis County, Duluth, MN USA (EDNY) v. Tyler Scott Johnson; 1:23-cr-00013-NRM, Brooklyn, NY. Samie, Taroni, Champod (2020) Estimating the quantity of transferred DNA in primary and secondary transfers (Sci & Just 60:128-135).  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scijus.2019.09.008 Cale, C.M., et al. (2016) Could Secondary DNA Transfer Falsely Place Someone at the Scene of a Crime?  J For Sci 2016; 61(1): 196-203  doi: 10.1111/1556-4029.12894.

Some cards are important. Others become hobby history. Jeremy Lee is joined by Leighton Sheldon to examine two extraordinary vintage cards headed to auction: one of the few known signed 1948 Leaf Jackie Robinson rookie cards and a remarkable signed 1952 Bowman Mickey Mantle with an incredible backstory. The conversation explores rarity, provenance, auction estimates, and why these types of discoveries continue to captivate collectors decades after the cards were produced. Later in the episode, Leighton surprises the Sports Cards Live community with a generous National giveaway before Josh Adams joins the discussion to talk National anticipation and the excitement surrounding some of the hobby's biggest upcoming auctions. Topics include: One of the hobby's rarest signed Jackie Robinson cards The remarkable signed 1952 Bowman Mickey Mantle Why provenance matters Estimating the final auction prices National Sports Collectors Convention excitement Leighton Sheldon's $250 National giveaway Josh Adams joins the conversation The cards everyone will be watching this summer Thank you for listening to Sports Cards Live, your hobby headquarters for news, interviews, auctions, and thoughtful conversations about sports cards and memorabilia. Please support the show! ✅ Follow the podcast so you never miss an episode. ⭐ If you enjoy the show, leave a 5-star rating and review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

“You're at the mercy of the quality of the 2D plans.”We sit down with Tom from Vision 2 Estimating (V2E) to talk about why traditional construction estimating and 2D-only take-offs are costing builders real money. If you're quoting off PDFs, squinting at elevations, and hoping the details sort themselves out on site, this conversation will hit. It's about accurate building estimates, protecting margin, and pricing work properly in modern Australian residential construction.We take a look at why 3D modelling for builders is not about pretty renders; it's about clarity. Tom explains how 3D estimating, quantity take-offs, and a proper Bill of Quantities (BOQ) help you see what 2D drawings often hide: junctions, returns, missing scope, and the “we'll figure it out later” details that turn into budget blowouts. This is especially relevant for custom homes, high performance builds, and any project where small misses become expensive fast.A big theme is what Tom calls your builder DNA. Every builder has a way they build: preferred details, standard inclusions, sequencing, and products. V2E's approach is to model and estimate based on how you actually build on site, so your pricing matches reality. We also touch on modern estimating tools like PlusSpec (SketchUp plugin), digital BOQs, and connected workflows that make pre-construction smoother and reduce rework, disputes, and variations.If you're a builder, estimator, architect, or construction business owner trying to improve construction cost planning, tender pricing, and job profitability, check this episode out. We talk estimating systems, pre-construction services, reducing risk, and why better estimating is one of the fastest ways to lift building business profitability without working more hours. CHAPTER MARKERS00:00 Intro03:07 2D plans miss scope and costs06:55 Builder DNA and estimating accuracy08:21 Who owns pricing and variations15:14 Vignettes standards and estimating workflow18:03 Coordination meetings, RFIs, design clarity21:27 PlusSpec BOQ export and take-offs23:16 Builder-friendly BOQ and trade breakdown24:53 Cost codes setup for builders26:27 Import BOQ into estimating software27:02 Four cost buckets for budgeting30:08 Master price lists and cost control32:36 Model collaboration for builders and architects35:14 Estimating as a repeatable system36:59 Model viewer app for site teams39:25 Charging for pre-construction estimating47:40 AI estimating needs clean data50:07 Apprentices: estimating and building careersLINKS:Vision 2 Estimating: https://www.v2e.com.au/Our Sponsors:Pro Clima - https://mindful-builder.captivate.fm/proclimaMEGT - https://mindful-builder.captivate.fm/megtConnect with us on Instagram: @themindfulbuilderpodConnect with Hamish:Instagram: @sanctumhomesWebsite: www.yoursanctum.com.au/Connect with Matt: Instagram: @carlandconstructionsWebsite: www.carlandconstructions.com/Mentioned in this episode:Proclima Sponsor

Last time Brad from Teach Me Dirt joined us for the Estimating 101 episode, it became the most requested webinar we've ever done. So we brought him back to go deeper. Recorded live from our Dirt Bags University webinar on July 1st, hosts Luke and Joe Casey sit down with Brad to build a real site-work estimate line by line and show you exactly where the money hides.This one is hands-on. Brad walks a live takeoff and breaks down how to price demolition the right way, why hauling and disposal can be a profit center instead of a cost, and how owning your own land to store and recycle material puts money back in your pocket. We get into erosion control and construction entrances, grading, hauling by the hour, and how to take skills you already have and turn them into higher-margin work. Brad also breaks down the post-job analysis and data habits that sharpen every future bid.We wrap with live chat Q&A and a HUGE giveaway for the crew who showed up. If you estimate, bid, or you're trying to break into dirt work, this one pays for itself.

Send us Fan MailWe answer rapid-fire questions from the field on AI estimating, fiber adoption, data center density, and what owners really notice when they walk a finished job. We keep coming back to the same edge that separates good technicians from great ones: communication, clean execution, and professional habits that protect profit and reputation. • using AI for takeoffs and bills of material while still verifying counts and labor assumptions • weighing speed vs accuracy in estimating and protecting margin with human judgment • tracking optical LAN and fiber to the edge growth as bandwidth demand rises • building a starter fiber toolkit with lighting, cleaning, cleavers, VFLs and realistic costs • learning from early-career mistakes by listening, following instructions and improving cable management • using mentorship to develop strong fundamentals and avoid inherited bad habits • adapting to higher-density data centers with better routing plans and stronger documentation • understanding what owners focus on during walkthroughs, from labels to clean telecom rooms and swept floors • setting expectations early with kickoff meetings and improving closeout with customer surveys • handling coworkers who don't care without lowering your own standards • choosing certifications plus experience, with communication as the biggest career multiplier • preparing for cybersecurity demands, especially around network-connected cameras • making smart buildings manageable by focusing on outcomes and simple operator interfaces Make sure you tune in for that show, CTC Support the showKnowledge is power!  Make sure to stop by the webpage to buy me a cup of coffee or support the show at https://linktr.ee/letstalkcabling .  Also if you would like to be a guest on the show or have a topic for discussion send me an email at chuck@letstalkcabling.com Chuck Bowser RCDD TECH#CBRCDD #RCDD

How do you stop wasting hours estimating jobs you'll never win? In this episode of the Cabinet Maker Profit System Podcast, Dominic Rubino talks with Richard Bergan, Vice President of Bergen Architectural Woodworking, about the systems that helped his architectural millwork company improve estimating, avoid missed bid deadlines, and focus on the projects that fit their business best. Whether you're still doing every estimate yourself or training your first estimator, this conversation offers practical lessons you can apply immediately. You'll learn: ✔️ What separates a great estimator from an average one ✔️ How to know which bids deserve your time ✔️ Why following up after bids increases your win rate ✔️ How better communication builds stronger GC relationships ✔️ Why systems reduce chaos inside the office If you're tired of spending hours estimating projects that go nowhere, this episode will help you build a smarter estimating process.

Retirement is often painted as a well-earned period of leisure, adventure, and relaxation. Yet, the journey to a fulfilling retirement is rarely straightforward. On this episode of the show, I'm shining a light on the intricate realities lying beneath common assumptions—and how the right planning, rooted in your personal goals and beliefs, makes all the difference. I also share an eye-opening case study highlighting the difference between being told you're "good to retire" and actually being prepared for retirement.    You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...   [00:00] Advice on personalized retirement planning  [09:35] Retirement finances beyond your 401k [12:50] Planning a travel-focused retirement [15:13] Discussing retirement readiness scoring [17:51] Estimating future long-term care costs [21:06] Risks of a fixed income [30:34] Understanding annuities and IRA conversions When Generic Advice Isn't Enough It's critical it is to have a tailored retirement plan, not just a verbal green light from a general financial planner. Retirement is one of life's most significant transitions: leaving behind peak earning years for potentially three decades or more of financial independence. Generic answers, unsupported by analysis, put dreams and security at risk.   What Makes Up a True Retirement Plan? Retirement planning isn't just a matter of having "enough" in a 401(k) to draw a standard percentage each year. There is a huge array of considerations required for a robust plan:   Health Insurance Before Medicare: What happens if you retire at 61, but Medicare doesn't kick in until 65? Options like COBRA may be costly and only temporary. Knowing all available choices is crucial to avoid unexpected expenses. Housing Decisions: Downsizing might not bring the savings (or happiness) you expect in today's real estate market. Plans should address whether you'll stay, improve your home, or move, and how each choice affects your budget and taxes. Major Expenses and Repairs: From home improvements to HVAC upgrades, factoring in intermittent—but significant—expenses is part of protecting your financial stability in retirement. Timing Social Security: Early collection might not be best, especially for those with longevity in their family. Taking a holistic view of Social Security's role in your cash flow and legacy is vital. Personal Goals: Retirement is about more than cash flow. What do you wish to do—travel, spend time with family, pursue hobbies? These needs must be "baked into" your plan, not treated as afterthoughts.   Why There Are No Shortcuts in Planning The elevator to success is broken. You have to use the stairs!. You need to put in the work, do some brainstorming, and conduct continuous review to build a strong retirement plan. Shortcuts—like relying on rules of thumb or ignoring nuanced needs—leave you exposed to avoidable pitfalls. Assessing your "retirement readiness grade" honestly helps identify what's missing. Rarely does someone fail readiness due to insufficient savings alone; more often, the gaps lie in overlooked factors such as healthcare, taxes, risk mitigation, or a lack of clarity on what retirement should look like.   The Power of Personal Core Beliefs in Shaping Strategy Your beliefs and values shape your retirement strategy. These core beliefs drive thoughtful planning:   Long-Term Care is a Universal Risk: Statistically, women face a higher likelihood of needing care, but everyone must plan for this unpredictable cost. Inflation Is Inevitable: Rising costs, from stamps to healthcare, erode fixed incomes over time. A plan that doesn't anticipate inflation invites hardship down the road. National Debt and Taxes: With U.S. debt at $40 trillion and growing, it's prudent to assume taxes will rise in future decades; your tax strategy should reflect that likelihood, even as you account for uncertainty.   Writing Your Own Next Chapter Most importantly, you have to understand that retirement as a deeply personal chapter—you get to decide what happiness and fulfillment mean. Whether that involves travel, volunteering, family time, or pursuing new ventures, your personal goals must drive your planning process. There's no one-size-fits-all template; only a comprehensive, personalized plan offers true peace of mind. Retirement readiness isn't a destination handed to you—it's a path you build through diligent planning and honest reflection on what matters most to you. By moving beyond generic reassurances and crafting a strategy rooted in personal goals and beliefs, you can confidently step into retirement's best years.   Resources & People Mentioned 3 Steps to Retirement Planning   Connect With Gregg Gonzalez   Email at: Gregg.gonzalez@lpl.com Podcast: https://RetireStrongFA.com/Podcast Website: https://RetireStrongFA.com/ Follow Gregg on LinkedIn Follow Gregg on Facebook Follow Gregg on YouTube Subscribe to Retirement Made Easy On Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts

Jai Bhavnani is the Founder of Waymont Co, the developer of the Royco protocol.In this episode of DeFi Frontier, Jai walks through how Royco evolved from an incentive platform into a risk tranching protocol connecting RWA issuers with both institutions and DeFi users. He explains what makes an asset worth tranching, and then navigates through a real stress test in progress for Royco, with the recent apyUSD drawdown triggering a 21-day observation period. Plus, we get a first take on what to expect from Royco Dusk, a new app for extending credit to Royco senior tranche holders, through an AMM-backed liquidity pool.------

Last time we spoke about the battle of Zhongtiao Mountain. On 7 May 1941, Japan launched a three-front assault on the Zhongtiao Mountains, striking multiple axes and using paratroopers to disrupt Chinese command. On the northeastern front, Wu Shimin's 98th Army scored a success at Wangcun, routing about 2,000 attackers. Elsewhere, three-pronged Japanese forces drove south toward Yuanqu with overwhelming artillery, armor, and coordinated movement. During the first night, paratroopers found the Chinese headquarters already disordered: orders were unclear and communications with most units collapsed. By 8 May, the First War Zone could no longer coordinate; armies fought alone. From mid-May into June, Japanese units swept the mountains, manning river crossings to block retreat and eliminating pockets. Surviving Chinese formations escaped or regrouped south of the Yellow River, but the three-year Zhongtiao defensive system was destroyed in about twenty days, sharply worsening Japan's strategic situation in northern China.   #208 Operation Plus: The Road to the Second Battle of Changsha Welcome to the Fall and Rise of China Podcast, I am your dutiful host Craig Watson. But, before we start I want to also remind you this podcast is only made possible through the efforts of Kings and Generals over at Youtube. Perhaps you want to learn more about the history of Asia? Kings and Generals have an assortment of episodes on history of asia and much more  so go give them a look over on Youtube. So please subscribe to Kings and Generals over at Youtube and to continue helping us produce this content please check out www.patreon.com/kingsandgenerals. If you are still hungry for some more history related content, over on my channel, the Pacific War Channel where I cover the history of China and Japan from the 19th century until the end of the Pacific War. In the autumn of 1939, Japanese forces under General Yasuji Okamura launched a major offensive aimed at capturing Changsha — the gateway to China's interior and one of the most important cities still under Nationalist control. The First Battle of Changsha ended without a decisive Japanese victory. Chinese forces, anchored by the Ninth War Zone under General Xue Yue, managed to repel the advance, inflicting significant casualties and preserving the city. It was a notable achievement at a time when Japanese arms had swept across vast swathes of Chinese territory, and it reverberated through both the Chinese military establishment and the watching international community. Following the Japanese withdrawal, Chiang Kai-shek convened the Second Nanyue Military Conference to carry out a thorough assessment of the battle and to plan for the period of relative calm that would follow. The conference sought to answer several pressing questions: What had worked in the defense? Where had coordination broken down? How could the period of Japanese inactivity be used most productively? Chiang made it clear that this respite was not to be wasted. Commanders of all the major war zones were simultaneously expected to serve as governors of their respective provinces, ensuring unity of military and civilian command. Chiang himself set an example by personally assuming the governorship of Sichuan Province and focusing attention on that province's production and reconstruction efforts. The conference produced broad directives for the reconstruction of war-zone provinces and the intensification of military training. For Hunan, responsibility for implementing these directives fell on the shoulders of General Xue Yue, who had emerged from the First Battle of Changsha with greatly enhanced prestige and authority. The reason Changsha and Hunan more broadly attracted such persistent Japanese attention was geographical and logistical. The Yuehan Railway — running from Yueyang in northern Hunan down through Changsha and south toward Guangzhou — was one of the most important transportation arteries in China. Whoever controlled it could move troops, equipment, and supplies across vast distances with speed and reliability. Opening up the Yuehan line would, in Japanese strategic thinking, effectively connect their forces in Central China with those in South China, allowing for a gradual tightening of the strategic noose around Chiang Kai-shek's wartime capital at Chongqing in Sichuan Province. Hunan was therefore not merely a defensive problem for the Chinese; it was a strategic prize that Japan would inevitably seek to take. Xue Yue, whose headquarters were in Changsha, was well aware of this logic. With the First Battle of Changsha behind him and the province in need of recovery, Xue Yue turned his attention to governance. He was not content to wait passively for the next Japanese offensive. He believed that a province that was economically productive, administratively disciplined, and politically stable would provide a far more durable foundation for military resistance than one that was disorganized and demoralized. At the beginning of his tenure as effective governor of Hunan, Xue conducted a thorough survey of the province's situation and then articulated a philosophical framework for his administration in the form of a "three-character policy," consisting of three guiding principles: "Peace"  (an), "Convenience" (bian), and "Sufficiency" ( zu). In Xue's formulation, "Peace" meant that the population should be able to live, work, and conduct their daily affairs free from fear and disruption. "Convenience" meant that policies should benefit the people, the nation, and the war effort simultaneously — eliminating bureaucratic obstacles and inefficiencies. "Sufficiency" meant achieving adequate levels in all essential areas: enough soldiers, enough food, and enough wisdom in leadership. These seemingly simple principles were elaborated into extensive implementation guidelines. The announcement of this framework immediately sparked debate across Hunan's intellectual and administrative community. Veteran officials and scholars were divided. Some praised the policy as a clear and practical framework for wartime governance. Others dismissed it as hollow wordplay, offering nothing new or substantive. A minority was more sharply critical, warning that if such superficial philosophizing was all Xue could offer, the province would decay into warlordism. Undeterred by the criticism, Xue Yue built upon the three-character framework with a set of "Six Policies" for governing the people of Hunan: "Benefiting the People, Raising the People, Educating the People, Protecting the People, Managing the People, and Utilizing the People." Each of these six principles came with specific implementation targets and performance metrics, designed to be measurable rather than aspirational. This second round of policy announcements generated yet another wave of debate, but Xue pressed forward with implementation regardless. From the beginning of 1940, Xue vigorously pushed for the expansion of agricultural and industrial production across the province. His approach was comprehensive and at times uncompromising. He approved funds for the reconstruction of the Zhongshan Road National Goods Exhibition Hall in Changsha — which had been destroyed in the catastrophic Changsha Fire of 1938 — and by February 1940, 114 shops had reopened there. In March, he approved the "Eight Measures for the Construction of Sheds in Changsha," drafted by the Changsha Municipal Police Bureau, which relaxed housing regulations and helped address the severe shortage of accommodation for the city's residents, who had largely fled or been displaced during the fire and the Japanese offensive. One of the more creative initiatives of this period was the Ninth War Zone's order requiring all troops stationed in Hunan to cultivate a certain amount of farmland in their spare time, growing grain to supplement military rations. Local residents came to refer to the plots tended by soldiers as "soldier's fields" (bing tian). This policy served a dual purpose: it reduced the logistical burden of feeding the garrison forces from civilian stocks while keeping soldiers productively occupied during lulls in fighting. It also served to maintain a degree of goodwill between the military and the rural communities on which any prolonged resistance ultimately depended. One of the most consequential steps Xue Yue took to stabilize Hunan's governance was an aggressive campaign against corruption. On April 15, 1940, he ordered the execution of Tian Weizheng, the county magistrate of Changsha, and Wang Lun, the county magistrate of Xiangtan, both on charges of corruption and abuse of office. The proclamation accompanying the executions was blunt: "This serves as a warning against corruption and establishes the authority of the law in upholding discipline." The message was not lost on officials across the province. In the months that followed, a sweep of investigations led to the punishment of numerous corrupt officials and illegal businessmen. The effect on public confidence in the provincial government was significant. Citizens and soldiers alike perceived that there was now a leadership willing to hold its own accountable — a stark contrast to the corruption and self-dealing that had plagued Chinese provincial governance throughout the war. Xue was also attentive to the ideological dimension of the war effort. On May Fourth Youth Day — itself laden with nationalist significance, commemorating the great student movement of 1919 — Xue attended the provincial capital's sports meet and delivered a speech before thousands of young people entitled "Iron Youth, Iron Spirit, Sacred Labor, Sacred Survival." The speech was aimed at galvanizing the younger generation, connecting their personal futures to the fate of the nation and the resistance against Japan. That same month, in May 1940, the 110th executive meeting of the Hunan Provincial Government revised and approved the "Hunan Province County Heads Performance Evaluation Method," a document that formalized military service and support for the war effort as the primary criterion in the evaluation of local officials' political performance. Throughout 1940, the provincial government and the Ninth War Zone organized a series of training courses for officials, including courses specifically designed for guerrilla cadres, women cadres, and village chiefs — an indication that preparations for sustained, decentralized resistance were underway. Xue himself addressed the cadre training group with a speech on "The Conditions That a Well-Rounded Cadre Should Possess." By the end of 1940, after more than a year of sustained effort, Hunan had broadly recovered to the administrative and economic condition it had enjoyed before the Changsha Fire, when the reformist official Zhang Zhizhong had governed the province. Agriculture, industry, and commerce all showed measurable improvement over their wartime lows. The government's accounts for the year reflected growth across all sectors. This recovery was not merely statistical; it represented a genuine rebuilding of the province's capacity to sustain a prolonged defense. Soldiers were better fed and equipped, local officials were more disciplined, and the civilian population had a functioning, if still imperfect, relationship with the wartime state. Early in 1941, Xue Yue's reputation had grown to the point where local gentry and public figures jointly petitioned for a bustling street in Changsha to be named after his courtesy name — a mark of genuine popular esteem unusual for a military governor in wartime China. While Xue Yue was rebuilding Hunan, events at the geopolitical level were reshaping the strategic environment in ways that would directly precipitate the Second Battle of Changsha. On September 27, 1940, Japan signed the Tripartite Pact with Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy, formally joining the Axis powers. The pact alarmed the Western democracies and accelerated their support for China. On December 2, 1940, the United States Congress passed a bill approving a one-hundred-million-dollar loan to China. On December 10, 1940, Britain followed suit, approving a ten-million-pound loan. Both measures were explicitly understood — by all parties — as responses to Japanese expansion and Japan's recognition of Wang Jingwei's collaborationist puppet government in Nanjing. For the Japanese military leadership, these loans signaled that the international community was not prepared to accept Japan's fait accompli in China, and that the war of attrition against the Nationalist government could not be allowed to continue indefinitely. The imperative to resolve the "China Incident" — as Japanese officials euphemistically called the war — before the international situation deteriorated further became more urgent than ever. On January 16, 1941, the Japanese Army adopted the "Long-Term Operational Guidance Plan for China." The document acknowledged a painful internal contradiction: Japan could only sustain a protracted war in China, yet it simultaneously demanded a swift resolution to the conflict through strong military pressure. The plan's solution to this contradiction was to intensify operations while "taking note of the international situation" — meaning that military actions should be calibrated to avoid triggering direct American or British intervention. The plan called for large-scale offensive operations in the summer and autumn of 1941. The companion document, the "Annual Plan for Showa 16 (1941)," was more specific. It required Japanese troops stationed in China to conduct a major operation in the summer and autumn of that year with the aim of dealing a heavy blow to the main force of the "Whampoa Military Academy" — the term used by Japanese planners to describe the core of Chiang Kai-shek's professional officer corps, trained at the Whampoa (Huangpu) Military Academy and regarded as the backbone of the Nationalist army. The stated goal was to destroy the Chongqing government's will to continue resistance and thereby force a resolution to the China Incident. Xue Yue himself read translated summaries of both these documents when he traveled to Chongqing to report on his work in early 1941. He returned to Hunan in a reflective, and determined, frame of mind. For much of the period between the two Battles of Changsha, the Japanese Eleventh Army — the primary force facing Xue Yue's Ninth War Zone — had been commanded by General Yasuji Okamura, a seasoned officer with whom Xue had developed a degree of familiarity through combat. By early 1941, it became known that Okamura was to be transferred to the Military Advisory Council at Imperial General Headquarters in Tokyo — a prestigious but more removed role. Xue Yue reflected on this change with a mixture of relief and characteristic self-confidence, reasoning that whoever replaced Okamura would be a new adversary to be dealt with on the battlefield, and that there was no reason to lose to him regardless. Korechika Anami received his appointment as commander of the Eleventh Army on February 15, 1941. From the first day of his appointment, he carried a detailed battle map of the three provinces facing his command — Hunan, Hubei, and Jiangxi — along with comprehensive intelligence files on both sides' troop dispositions and strengths. He studied these materials constantly, on trains, in waiting rooms, wherever he had a free moment. By the time he formally took up his post on March 10, 1941, he already had a clear operational vision for the coming campaign. Before reaching the front, Anami stopped in Nanjing to meet with General Hata Shunroku, the Commander-in-Chief of the China Expeditionary Army. Hata had himself arrived in China in early 1941, having been summoned by the Emperor before his departure and entrusted with what the Emperor called the sacred mission of resolving the China Incident. The two men talked through the night, their conversation returning repeatedly to the planned summer-autumn offensive. Hata urged Anami to annihilate the main force of the Ninth War Zone in the area south of the Miluo River — to destroy, once and for all, the core of Chiang Kai-shek's best troops. "If this battle is fought well," Hata told him, "the entire war situation in China will undergo a huge change." Anami listened and agreed, though he had his own reasons to want the battle to go well. He had voluntarily relinquished the prominent position of Vice Minister of the Army at General Headquarters in Tokyo to take this field command — a significant personal sacrifice that reflected his deep desire for battlefield achievement. There was a personal dimension to Anami's motivations as well. His second son, a bright and lively boy to whom he was deeply attached, had died in combat in China. Anami carried a photograph of his son wherever he went, and had resolved to transform his grief into a consuming commitment to military excellence, whatever the human cost. At the Eleventh Army's headquarters in Yueyang, Anami found the war game board and operational plans that Okamura had left behind. He did not immediately begin issuing orders. Instead, for weeks he immersed himself in the problem, traveling between divisional headquarters and subordinate commands to gather ground-level perspectives, or sitting alone for hours before the great map, motionless and in deep concentration. His new chief of staff, Kinoshita Isamu, who had come from a divisional unit and was unfamiliar with his commander's temperament, could only keep silent company during these long sessions. When Anami eventually convened his headquarters personnel to explain his operational intentions, he made a pointed critique of the First Battle of Changsha. "The reason why the last battle in Changsha did not achieve great results," he said, "was that the troops were too dispersed and the main direction of attack was not highlighted, so they could not form a strong impact and lethality." He named the new operation "Operation Plus" — a deliberate contrast with what he saw as the subtracted, diluted efforts of the previous campaign. His concept was one of radical concentration: rather than dispersing the attack across multiple fronts in Hubei and Jiangxi while simultaneously advancing on Changsha, Anami proposed pulling the forces from southern Hubei and northern Jiangxi and massing them in front of northern Hunan. The effect on his staff officers when he demonstrated this redeployment on the map was electric; one of them involuntarily exclaimed aloud at the sudden clarity of the advantageous position that mass concentration would create. Anami's personality was, in the judgment of those who worked with him, fundamentally different from Okamura's. A commander's fighting style is shaped by his character, and Anami's character was defined by intensity, focus, and a willingness to commit fully. These traits would shape "Operation Plus" from conception to execution. On June 22, 1941, five and a half million German troops launched Operation Barbarossa — the largest military invasion in history — against the Soviet Union. The news reached the Japanese military establishment with a degree of surprise, since such a momentous operation should, under the terms of the Tripartite Pact, have been communicated in advance. Beyond the procedural slight, German strategists had placed themselves in the position of fighting a two-front war, something Japanese generals found strategically bewildering. The outbreak of the Soviet-German War forced a serious debate within the Japanese General Staff. One faction argued for a "northward advance" — seizing the opportunity to strike the Soviet Union from the east while its military was fully committed in the west. Another faction argued for a "southward advance" — moving into Southeast Asia and the Pacific to secure the oil and raw materials that Japan desperately needed. Prime Minister Fumimaro Konoe adopted a wait-and-see compromise, authorizing secret preparations for war in the north known as Operation Kantokuen while continuing to monitor developments. Now it just so happens I released a Patreon/Youtube Members exclusive episode covering Operation Kantokuen the previous month. I highly recommend it, fascinating what if piece of history. For just a teaser I can briefly summarize it: Operation Kantokuen — officially designated "Kwantung Army Special Maneuvers" — was Japan's plan for a large-scale invasion of the Soviet Far East, developed in the summer of 1941 following Germany's launch of Operation Barbarossa. When news of the German invasion reached Tokyo, Foreign Minister Yosuke Matsuoka and senior Kwantung Army officers argued Japan should abandon its neutrality pact with the USSR and strike in coordination with Germany. An Army-Navy compromise on June 24th allowed preparations to proceed so long as they did not interfere with Japan's concurrent southern ambitions. On July 5th, Matsuoka and Major General Shin'ichi Tanaka convinced War Minister Hideki Tojo to back a more ambitious scheme, and the two men then bypassed the War Ministry entirely, securing Emperor Hirohito's personal authorization. The plan was structured in two stages — a buildup and readiness phase followed by an offensive phase — during which the Kwantung Army would await an explicit order to attack. The Army General Staff calculated that any campaign had to conclude by mid-October before Siberian winter conditions made logistics impossible. Their ideal force requirement was 16 to 22 divisions supported by 800,000 tons of shipping, though this assumed the Soviets would first redeploy half their Far Eastern infantry and two-thirds of their armor westward against Germany. The planned order of battle ultimately settled on 24 divisions — 17 committed to the eastern front and 5 concentrated near Mutanchiang. The opening blow was designed to fall on the Primorye (Maritime Province) front. The 1st Area Army, commanding the 3rd and 20th Armies along with elements of the Korea Army, would cross the border south of Lake Khanka to shatter Soviet defensive lines and menace Vladivostok. Simultaneously, the 5th Army would strike south of Iman to cut the Trans-Siberian Railway and isolate the Maritime Province from northern reinforcements. In the north, the 4th Army would hold the Amur River line before pivoting to attack Blagoveshchensk, while two additional reinforced divisions would invade Northern Sakhalin in a land-and-sea pincer. A second phase envisioned capturing Khabarovsk, Komsomolsk, and Sovetskaya Gavan, with amphibious operations considered against Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and Kamchatka itself. The operation was to be supported by a massive air assault — between 1,800 and 2,700 aircraft combining Army and Navy aviation — aimed at annihilating the Soviet Far East Air Force in the opening hours, after which Japanese air power would shift to tactical ground support and interdiction of Soviet supply lines. Armored assets included roughly 800–900 tanks, mostly Type 97 Chi-Has and Type 95 Ha-Gos. Kantokuen was also allocated chemical weapons stockpiled in Manchuria and biological agents produced by Unit 731, intended for deployment against Soviet rear areas and supply lines. Despite the scale of planning, the operation was already fatally compromised before it could be launched. Japan's industry and logistics could not sustain a two-front war while remaining bogged down in China. On August 1st, 1941, the United States enacted a total oil embargo that cut off 80% of Japan's fuel supply, and the Dutch East Indies followed. With oil reserves sufficient for only 12–18 months of peacetime consumption, a Siberian offensive that would consume an estimated one to two million barrels per month was no longer tenable. By August 9th, the Army General Staff conceded that seizing the oil-rich territories of Southeast Asia was the overriding strategic priority. The Kantokuen buildup was formally terminated, and Japan turned south — setting the course toward Pearl Harbor and the Pacific War. Now Kantokuen held some practical consequences for the China Expeditionary Army was disruptive. Serious consideration was given to redeploying units of the Eleventh Army away from their positions facing Hunan and northward toward Manchuria, in anticipation of a possible war with the Soviet Union. This threatened to derail Anami's planning entirely. The cloud of uncertainty hung over the Changsha operation for several weeks. Despite the disruption, Anami refused to let the operation be indefinitely deferred. On June 24, 1941 — just two days after Barbarossa began — he formally approved the operational guidance outline for the Changsha offensive and set a planned launch date of September 15. This was an act of deliberate institutional pressure: by formalizing the plan so quickly in the wake of Barbarossa, Anami made it harder for higher authorities to redirect his forces northward without explicitly cancelling a plan already in motion. The gamble worked. The northward deployment option was ultimately shelved, and the Eleventh Army remained in place to conduct its summer-autumn offensive. While Anami and his staff at Yueyang bent over their map of Hunan, so too did Xue Yue and his staff at Changsha. Two nearly identical colored military maps were laid out on large tables in two different command centers — one in Chinese, one in Japanese — showing the same terrain of Hunan, southern Hubei, and western Jiangxi. The Xiang River appeared on both as a green ribbon; Dongting Lake as a blue maple leaf. For those responsible for commanding the impending battle, the war game was the battle, played out in simulation before blood was shed. Xue Yue, his Chief of Staff Wu Yizhi, Chief of Staff Zhao Zili, and the intelligence and operations officers of the Ninth War Zone Command engaged in extensive map exercises throughout the summer of 1941. Wargaming pieces bearing unit designations moved across the terrain as staff officers reported troop strengths, timings, and geographic objectives. The summer heat was intense, and there was nowhere cool in Changsha; Xue and his staff worked in the heat, sweating heavily as they played out scenario after scenario. It was during these sessions that Xue came to believe he had grasped the essential shape of the Japanese plan. Reasoning from the known Japanese strategic posture and the pattern of the first battle, he concluded that the enemy would again advance roughly the same way. His counter-strategy was as follows: in northern Jiangxi and southern Hubei, the war zone would launch pincer attacks on Japanese forces that were not part of the main offensive, targeting the area north of Chongren and Xingan, east of Yichun, Wanzai, Tonggu, and Xiushui, to defeat them in detail. In northern Hunan — the main theater — the war zone would deliberately allow the Japanese to advance, luring their main force south of the Miluo River into the area north of Jinjing, Fulinpu, and Sanjieqiao, and then launch a devastating counterattack to encircle and annihilate them. After a successful counterattack, Xue imagined pursuing the broken Japanese forces all the way back to Yueyang, and beyond — even, in his more expansive moments, recapturing the great cities of Jiujiang and Wuhan, lost in 1938. This was the "lure and annihilate" strategy, and it was not merely a hope — it was the formal operational order issued to the forces of the Ninth War Zone. In August 1941, the Ninth Military Front officially assessed that Japan intended to capture Changsha and obtain supplies, and the lure-and-annihilate plan was formalized accordingly. What Xue Yue did not know — and could not know through his intelligence network alone — was that Anami's operational philosophy was fundamentally different from Okamura's. The critical assumption underlying the lure-and-annihilate plan was that the Japanese would attack in roughly the same dispersed, multi-front pattern as the first battle. Anami's "Operation Plus" invalidated this assumption entirely. By concentrating his forces in front of northern Hunan rather than dispersing them, Anami would strike with an impact Xue's cordon defenses were not designed to absorb. Xue was, unknowingly, planning to fight a replay of the first battle against an opponent who had studied that first battle as a case study in what not to do. Despite this fundamental intelligence gap, the Chinese were not without information. From mid-August 1941 onward, residents of mountain villages and riverside communities in northern Jiangxi and southern Hubei began reporting unusual nighttime activity. Faint sounds of motor engines and the footsteps of large columns moving on main roads were heard after dark. On moonlit nights, fleets of motorboats were seen moving without lights on the rivers, visible only as dark shadows on the water. The local population was puzzled and unsettled: what kind of unit was this, and what were they doing? The answer was that Anami's forces were conducting their pre-offensive assembly under cover of darkness and strict light discipline, moving four divisions totaling approximately 120,000 troops into position for the attack on Hunan. Military and civilian intelligence agents operating in these areas crouched in the bushes, enduring insect bites through long nights, watching and recording everything they witnessed. The information was relayed by human chain, passed from one agent to another across a network stretching back to Changsha, until it was collated and placed on Xue Yue's desk by staff officers from the Ninth War Zone Command's Intelligence Department. Xue studied the reports carefully, comparing them against his map. The evidence of a large Japanese build-up in northern Hunan was unambiguous. But Xue was suspicious of its implications. "Mobilize troops? All the troops are moved to northern Hunan. What about Tongcheng? What about Yueyang? Impossible! Feint? What does that mean? You want me to concentrate my troops in northern Hunan so you can attack from both sides?" His staff officers were similarly uncertain how to read the intelligence. The scale of the Japanese concentration defied the pattern of previous operations, and Xue's trained instincts — calibrated against years of dealing with Okamura — led him to doubt what his intelligence was plainly showing. He concluded, without firm evidence, that the concentration must be a feint or a deception. On August 26, 1941, Imperial General Headquarters in Tokyo issued Mainland Order No. 538, which authorized the Commander-in-Chief of the China Expeditionary Army to "temporarily conduct operations beyond the designated operational area in Central China during the summer and autumn." This order provided the formal imperial sanction for the Changsha offensive, lifting any remaining bureaucratic constraints on Anami's operational plan. It represented the final piece of institutional authorization, completing a chain that stretched from Anami's June 24 approval of the operational outline through Hata's advocacy at the China Expeditionary Army level to the formal imprimatur of the Imperial General Headquarters. With Mainland Order No. 538 in hand, the Eleventh Army's final preparations could proceed without ambiguity. The original planned launch date of September 15 would in practice be moved forward, with combat beginning on September 7 — itself a date chosen partly to maximize the advantage of late-summer weather conditions in the Hunan river-crossing terrain. By the time Anami's forces were assembled, the operational force was formidable. Estimating that the enemy facing them comprised fifteen divisions from the Chinese 4th, 37th, 99th, 74th, and 26th Corps, Japanese planners calculated — somewhat optimistically — that two infantry battalions would suffice to handle one enemy division. To provide a margin for error and to ensure decisive striking power, the Eleventh Army committed forty-one infantry battalions distributed across four full divisions and three specialized task forces, supported by twenty-nine artillery battalions. This represented a massive concentration of firepower and manpower along a relatively narrow axis of advance, precisely as Anami had intended. The objective was clearly stated: "to deal a major blow to the Ninth Military Front in order to thwart the enemy's plan for resistance." Japanese senior leadership reiterated at every briefing that the mission was emphatically not territorial — the army was not to occupy Changsha or secure it for long-term administration, and it was not to forage for supplies. The goal was destruction of Chinese combat power. On the Chinese side, the Ninth Military Front had not been idle. Since the Battle of Shanggao in March 1941 — a significant Chinese defensive victory in Jiangxi that had inflicted heavy casualties on Japanese forces attempting to advance into the province — the Ninth Military Front had ordered its troops to cooperate with guerrilla units operating in the Hunan-Hubei-Jiangxi border region, conducting harassment operations against Japanese logistics and communications. This cooperation served both to maintain offensive pressure and to train the irregular forces that would prove invaluable in a war of attrition. By August 1941, Xue Yue had assembled a force of thirty-five divisions organized into thirteen armies across three army groups, totaling 378,307 troops. The headquarters of the Ninth Military Front remained in Changsha. Xue had also assessed his forces' combat readiness with some confidence: in the summer of 1940, the Ninth War Zone had dispatched one corps from each army group and one division from each corps on summer offensive operations against Japanese positions, explicitly testing their readiness in real combat. Although no major victories had been achieved in those operations, the exercise confirmed that troop morale was high and that combat effectiveness had recovered to the level of the First Battle of Changsha. If anything, Xue thought, after another full year of training, they should be better. I would like to take this time to remind you all that this podcast is only made possible through the efforts of Kings and Generals over at Youtube. Please go subscribe to Kings and Generals over at Youtube and to continue helping us produce this content please check out www.patreon.com/kingsandgenerals. If you are still hungry after that, give my personal channel a look over at The Pacific War Channel at Youtube, it would mean a lot to me. Operation Plus, emphasized concentrating forces and creating a decisive breakthrough rather than dispersing attacks across multiple fronts like in earlier battles. On the Chinese side, commander Xue Yue developed a "lure and annihilate" strategy, expecting the Japanese to fight like before; however, Anami's concentrated approach undermined these assumptions, making a Chinese counteroffensive far harder to execute.

What separates investors who scale from those who stay stuck? In this episode of the Abundance Mindset Podcast (Abundance Thursdays), Vinney Chopra and co-host Gualter Amarelo break down one wealth-building principle that's behind every deal Vinney has ever closed: accept what can't be changed — then create an advantage.   Vinney walks through the real numbers on his Columbus, Ohio hotel: bought for around $11M, undergoing a $25M renovation, converting from a Hilton into a full-service Marriott, and expanding from 195 doors to 230 keys — with a projected exit near $70M. You'll also hear how he turned 1,000 unused lockers into revenue-producing meeting rooms, refinanced his way out of a variable-rate apartment deal in Knoxville, and survived the COVID gut-punch when occupancy on a brand-new hotel fell from 87.5% to 25% overnight.   If you're a real estate investor, capital raiser, or aspiring syndicator trying to build wealth in a high interest rate environment, this conversation is a masterclass in solution-focused thinking. As Vinney says: whenever there's a big wall, there's always a window somewhere — you've got to find the window.   ⏱️ TIMESTAMPS 00:00 – "There's Always a Window": The Mindset Behind Every Deal 00:35 – The Columbus Hotel: A $25M Renovation Into a Full-Service Marriott 01:20 – Accept What Can't Be Changed → 195 Doors Become 230 Keys 02:15 – Estimating a $70M Exit (+ Accredited Investor Disclaimer) 03:00 – What a 506(c) Offering Actually Means for You 03:40 – 1,000 Lockers Into Meeting Rooms: Finding Hidden Revenue 04:25 – The Knoxville Apartment & the Variable-Rate Problem 05:00 – Refinancing the Wall Into a Window 06:00 – Why a HIGH Interest Rate Market Works in Your Favor 07:50 – The Hilton-to-Marriott Flag Change & Marriott "War Rooms" 08:40 – Control the Controllables 09:10 – The Banker Call That Saved $60K Now + $60K Every Year 11:00 – The Exit Plan: Sell, Go Passive, Manage the Managers 13:50 – Hospitality Roars Back + the New Tampa Acquisition 15:00 – Finding an Operator Who Isn't Stretched Too Thin 16:00 – No Capital or No Experience? Partner & Create an Advantage 18:30 – The COVID Gut-Punch: A Hotel Bought December 31, 2019 19:20 – From 25% Occupancy to a $6M → $12M Win 20:30 – Build a Mind That Hunts for Solutions 21:20 – FREE Books & Resources (the "Keep More" Tax Guide) 23:00 – Vinney's Closing Message  

In this special episode of The Points of CARE, recorded live during the American Diabetes Association's (ADA) 2026 Scientific Sessions in New Orleans, hosts Richard Beaser, MD and Jane Reusch, MD highlight a new symposium on the clinical, social, and economic costs of treating—or not treating—individuals with obesity. This panel discussion is moderated by Louis J. Aronne, MD, Sanford I. Weill Professor of Metabolic Research at Weill-Cornell Medical College in New York, former president of the Obesity Society, and chair emeritus of the American Board of Obesity Medicine. Presenters: Timothy Dall, MS Managing Director for Life Sciences Consulting at GlobalData Melanie R. Jay, MD, Professor of Medicine and Population Health at the New York University Grossman School of Medicine Catherine Ferguson, MA, Vice President of Federal Advocacy for the ADA Featured Articles: The Cost of Inaction in Treating Obesity in the U.S. doi.org/10.2337/doci25-0011 Benefits and Costs of Treating Obesity Among Adults in Commercial Insurance Plans doi.org/10.2337/doci25-0006 Estimating the Health, Economic, and Social Benefits of Obesity Treatment Using Microsimulation Modeling doi.org/10.2337/doci25-0004 For more on the Cost of Obesity collection, visit diabetesjournals.org/collection/26413/Cost-of-Obesity To learn more about Diabetes, Obesity, and CardioMetabolic CARE please visit diabetesjournals.org/docm-care. Thank you for listening, and don't forget to subscribe.

This week, we dive deep into the world of data, decision-making, and uncertainty with Dale Nesbitt, a lecturer at Stanford and principal at Arrowhead Economics. Drawing on his unique upbringing in a mining town, Dale Nesbitt shares how witnessing raw data collection firsthand shaped his perspective on what it really takes to make informed decisions—hint: it's not just about having more data.Together, we explore the pitfalls of relying solely on data for critical choices, the importance of understanding probability and risk, and why data-gathering itself is often a noisy and imperfect process. From commodity pricing and speculation in oil markets to the real-world impact of data-driven decisions in healthcare, Dale Nesbitt reveals why true analytic power comes from combining rigorous analysis, sound judgment, and the right kind of data—not just more of it.Join us as we challenge myths around "data-driven" decisions, unpack lessons from COVID-era data science, and discover why wisdom of the crowd, probability, and a healthy respect for uncertainty are key to navigating our data-rich world.LinksDale's LinkedIn profile -https://www.linkedin.com/in/dale-nesbitt-b574a83a/Watch on YouTube -https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USOKgv1avHoTime Stamps00:00 Growing up in a mining town05:44 Data as the New Crude Oil07:31 Estimating and Understanding Stochastic Processes12:49 Impact of Strait of Hormuz Closure14:19 Challenges of AI in Economics17:05 Betting on events and elections21:43 Bayesian analysis and hydroxychloroquine data23:28 Understanding data and judgment26:38 Analyzing data for better decisions

In this episode, All In podcast host Marc Goldberg interviews past ESOL student and current Quinsigamond Community College (QCC) employee Tea Demetrashvili, president of Quinsigamond Community College, Dr. Luis G Pedraja, Jeff Moineau, Process and Estimating Manager at WireFab Inc., an employer partner to the college, and Andre Green, the Executive Director at SkillWorks, a funder collaborative in Boston, Massachusetts that brings together philanthropy, government, community organizations and employers to to improve workforce development across the state.Tea describes how her experience taking ESOL classes in the Adult Community Learning Center at QCC helped her personally and professionally as a newcomer to the community. She elaborates on the care and support provided by faculty and staff and the services offered for students, which she is now able to reciprocate working in the ACLC department supporting other students. Dr. Pedraja and Jeff both reflect on Tea's interview and discuss the critical role that multilingual learners and workers play in the Worcester region to address workforce talent needs from different perspectives - as a college president and a business leader. Dr. Pedraja further discusses the college's development of a strategic action plan for multilingual learners and why it has been a priority. Jeff highlights the company's valuable partnership with QCC who provides workplace ESOL courses for WireFab multilingual workers. Andre offers insights at the state level describing how immigrants and refugees can broaden the talent pool of skilled workers but need additional English language coursework. He shares how a broad coalition of organizations across Massachusetts were effectively able to advocate for legislation to increase state funding for vocational ESOL courses as an innovative workforce strategy. 

Show DescriptionHow do you estimate how long a task or project is going to take? Is it easier or more difficult with AI's help? Were web components a mistake? What do we think about Cloudflare's EmDash now? And are lifetime offers a good or bad thing in the dev community? Listen on WebsiteLinks Keyframes, Cash, and CodePen w/ Shaw - Whiskey Web and Whatnot Meeting Design - For Managers, Makers, and Ever :host CSS pseudo-class - CSS | MDN Introducing EmDash WP Migrate SponsorsMacroMacro is a tool to cut through the noise - It's a workspace built for engineers; One place for all your emails, tasks, team chat, and documents. Sign up at Macro.com and get $100 of your subscriptions using code SHOPTALK100

Today's episode continues the saga from last week's episode (“Are Accurate Estimates Important?”). Dr. Kuba continues to unpack details about a disgruntled parent in her practice that ended up with an unexpected bill of $1,700. Today, they discuss more oversights from the team including coordination of benefit issues (involving primary and secondary insurance), miscommunication to the parent when insurance failed to pay, and failing to advocate for the parent to pursue better reimbursement from insurance. Alongside the inaccurate estimate, these missteps have Dr. Kuba and Bethany evaluating what to do with this parent and with the team. They conclude the episode with a detailed account of how they responded to the parent's disgruntled email. Deep and meaningful tips are included in this episode PLUS so much more in the June bonus episode.

This week I open the Ristretto Time inbox and answer two listener questions I get versions of all the time.Eric in Colorado is building his coffee shop business plan and asks how to estimate tickets per day and average ticket size. I walk through my foot traffic counting method: when to count, what percentage of passersby actually walk in, what average ticket to assume for a coffee and pastry shop versus one serving lunch, and a simple daily revenue target you can reverse-engineer into customer counts.Kasim and his daughter are deciding between building a shop from scratch and buying an existing coffee business on BizBuySell. I cover the questions to ask before buying any operating café: why the owner is really selling, how to read the revenue and profit picture, the landlord relationship, what "under new ownership" does to a loyal clientele, how seller financing deals are structured, and why you shouldn't pay more than two to three times annual profit.Also in this episode: Grounds, my book on the full story of Café Chocolat, the coffee shop I opened and closed on H Street in Washington, DC, is out now on Amazon. It launched as one of the fastest selling books in the Starting a Business category. Buy it and email me at dollani@gmail.com and I'll send you my list of the 15 things I wish I knew before I started the coffee shop.If you're opening a coffee shop, writing a business plan, or weighing whether to buy an existing café, this episode is for you.

Are you tired of throwing out offers only to get rejected or ghosted by sellers? In part one of this explosive 2026 guide, Brent Daniels breaks down a live, unscripted seller call from his top acquisition manager to show you exactly how to navigate tricky price expectations and pull the true motivation out of a guarded prospect. You will also learn the "50-35-10 Rule" for setting quick anchor prices, a brand-new 2026 repair calculator for accurately estimating cosmetic and mechanical rehab costs over the phone, and why whoever asks the most questions always controls the conversation.Whether you are wondering which of the three marketing paths to take or you just want to know how to stop guessing and start making offers that sellers actually accept, this episode is a masterclass in acquisition. Be a part of the TTP training program now.---------Show notes:(0:00) Beginning of today's episode(1:24) Breaking down a live seller call with an expert Acquisition Manager(3:23) Why the person asking the most questions is always in control of the conversation(4:17) The danger of making an offer too early and hallucinating the seller's motivation(5:14) Closing a $37,000 deal after 12 touches and six months of ghosting(10:43) Why you must strive to be a "master of discovery" rather than a master closer(12:25) How real estate wholesaling can permanently elevate your family's financial trajectory(21:01) The 50-35-10 Rule and how to establish a quick anchor price over the phone(26:36) Estimating cosmetic vs. mechanical rehab costs(30:41) The three distinct paths up the mountain (Direct to Seller, Direct to Agent, or the Dispo Model)(36:11) Understanding the three layers of marketing (Hustle, Interruption-based, and Intent-based)(39:12) "Tax Sniping" and mastering the probate and inherited property process for massive spreads----------Resources:No Limit Sales SystemPropStreamBatchLeadsGoHighLevelMonsoonInstagram: @realbrentdanielsTo speak with Brent or one of our other expert coaches call (281) 835-4201 or schedule your free discovery call here to learn about our mentorship programs and become part of the TribeGo to Wholesalingincgroup.com to become part of one of the fastest growing Facebook communities in the Wholesaling space. Get all of your burning Wholesaling questions answered, gain access to JV partnerships, and connect with other "success minded" Rhinos in the community.It's 100% free to join. The opportunities in this community  are endless, what are you waiting for?

Juan Vargas talks about the unintended consequences of an anti-drug policy in Colombia. "The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement" by Mounu Prem, Juan F. Vargas, and Daniel Mejía. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Inside the war on drugs: Effectiveness and unintended consequences of a large illicit crops eradication program in Colombia" by Alberto Abadie, Maria C. Acevedo, Maurice Kugler, and Juan Vargas. “Estimating the causal effect of forced eradication on coca cultivation in Colombian municipalities" by Luis Carlos Reyes. “On the effects of enforcement on illegal markets: Evidence from a quasi-experiment in Colombia" by Daniel Mejía, Pascual Restrepo, and Sandra V. Rozo. “Bushes and bullets: Illegal cocaine markets and violence in Colombia" by Daniel Mejía and Pascual Restrepo. “Rural windfall or a new resource curse? Coca, income, and civil conflict in Colombia" by Joshua D. Angrist and Adriana D. Kugler. “A geography of illicit crops (coca leaf) and armed conflict in Colombia" by Ana María Díaz and Fabio Sánchez. “The health consequences of aerial spraying illicit crops: The case of Colombia" by Adriana Camacho and Daniel Mejía. “Deforestation and Coca Cultivation Rooted in Twentieth-Century Development Projects" by Liliana M. Dávalos, Karina M. Sanchez, and Dolors Armenteras. "Making a Narco: Childhood Exposure to Illegal Labor Markets and Criminal Life Paths" by Maria Micaela Sviatschi. "Coca-Based Local Growth and Its Socio-Economic Impact in Colombia" by Lucas Marín Llanes, Manuel Fernández Sierra, María Alejandra Vélez, Eduard F. Martínez-González, and Paulo Jose Murillo-Sandoval. "Cocaine Goes Bananas: Global Spillovers from an Illicit Supply Shock" by Gianmarco Daniele, Adam Soliman, and Juan F. Vargas. Want more? Check out my new book! The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice is available now. I have a Substack! Sign up for Probable Causation: The Newsletter.

Commentary by Dr. Jian'an Wang.

Gareth McGlynn speaks with Nate Weeks, Director of Estimating at Jewett Construction, a commercial general contractor based in Southern New Hampshire with operations across New England, upstate New York, and into the mid-Atlantic. Jewett has been in operation for over 50 years and remains family-owned into its second generation.Discussion Highlights:Career Progression: From zero estimating background at 27 to Director of Estimating in under a decade.The Shift to Leadership: Setting clear expectations, delegating effectively, and developing the team.Planning as a Sales Tool: Using a dedicated planning manager and Giraffe software to help developers optimise land use before estimating begins.Tech Stack: Builder, HubSpot, Building Connected, Procore, and Excel for estimating.The Bid Leveling Gap: Data entry from subcontractor bids as the biggest time drain, and what a real solution needs to look like.AI in Preconstruction: Using AI as a research aid while staying cautious about its reliability for cost decisions.You can connect with Nate via his LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nate-weeks-2409385a/More great conversations ahead. Stay connected with The Preconstruction Podcast for weekly episodes featuring voices from across the industry.

Gareth McGlynn speaks with Nathan Schafer, Estimating Manager at Cornerstone General Contractors, at Advancing Preconstruction 2026 in Phoenix. A self-performing GC based in Alaska, Cornerstone gives Nathan a hands-on perspective on preconstruction that is grounded in real field conditions.Key Topics Covered:Nathan & Cornerstone: Working across healthcare, hospitality, and federal military projects, with a focus on vertical commercial construction.New Estimators & Value Engineering: The shortage of talent entering the field, their understanding of value engineering, and professional development through ASPE and AACE.Lean Construction: Its growing impact on the estimating process and the role of AI takeoff tools as a lean principle in action.Data Science in Preconstruction: How Cornerstone is incorporating data science into its workflow, including labor productivity tracking and predicting quantity growth risk as a function of design maturity.Value Management in Practice: Cornerstone's formal pilot on a $90M project: 13 propositions totaling $9M, with $7M accepted.You can connect with Nathan via his LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nathan-schafer-cpe-b75991178/Or reach him through his blog: https://www.preconomics.com/blog

Hosted by Michael Tetreault | Editor-in-Chief, Concierge Medicine Today Episode Overview In one of the most comprehensive episodes in DocPreneur Leadership Podcast history, host Michael Tetreault takes an honest, evidence-based, and encouraging look at the cash-pay and subscription-based primary care landscape — who it serves, how it works, where it's heading, and what every physician and advanced practice clinician needs to understand before making a career-defining decision. This episode doesn't take sides. It takes a clear-eyed look at the full picture — including the parts that don't always make it into the conference keynote. What's Covered in This Episode The Foundation Not all subscription-based primary care models are the same. Two models operating in this space share surface-level similarities but are structurally distinct businesses with different economic logic, different patient populations, and different long-term trajectories. Understanding which one you're considering — and why — changes everything about how you plan. A Lesson From Healthcare History Before committing to any practice model, it helps to understand what happened to the movements that came before it. This episode traces three instructive parallels: the micropractice and ideal medical practice movement of the early 2000s; the decades-long fight for healthcare price transparency and what happened when physicians finally got it; and the rise and reality check of retail health — what scaled, what didn't, and why. The common thread in every model that has achieved durable scale in American healthcare is the same: structural fit with the economic environment, not ideological purity. Two Pathways, One Brand Name The episode walks through both economic models in the cash-pay primary care space — the purist, cash-only, no-insurance model and the employer-integrated model — explaining how each works, who each serves, and what the financial picture actually looks like for physicians considering either path. The revenue math is done out loud. The sustainability data from peer-reviewed research is cited. The patient demographic fit for each model is examined honestly and specifically. Who Each Model Serves — and Where Other Models Fit Better A detailed breakdown of the patient populations each model genuinely serves well — and an honest, evidence-based look at the patient populations where other models may be a better structural fit. Including Medicare-eligible patients, patients with complex chronic disease, lower-income households, and employees of small and mid-sized businesses. The Overlooked Opportunity — NPs, PAs, and Advanced Practice Clinicians One of the most significant and underexplored opportunities in subscription-based healthcare delivery today is the direct-care model as a pathway for nurse practitioners, physician assistants, and other advanced practice clinicians. The evidence on NP and PA-led primary care outcomes is strong and peer-reviewed. The physician shortage projections make the need urgent. And the organizational infrastructure for advanced practice clinician-led direct-care practices is largely unbuilt — which means the opportunity belongs to whoever moves first. The Organizational Landscape An honest look at what the multiplicity of organizations, coalitions, and alliances in the cash-pay primary care space tells us — and what research on professional association dynamics says about the long-term implications of organizational fragmentation for legislative effectiveness and individual practice planning. One Brand, Two Directions Drawing on four documented historical parallels from the history of American medicine — the AMA and managed care, osteopathic medicine's identity divide, family medicine's emergence as a separate specialty, and the micropractice movement — the episode makes the case that two communities with genuinely different economic interests and regulatory priorities currently sharing a brand name may, consistent with historical precedent, find their own distinct professional homes over time. This is presented as pattern recognition grounded in verified historical evidence — and as practical planning context for physicians building practices today. The Tax and Structuring Update A clear, practical summary of the 2025 "One Big Beautiful Bill" Act changes — effective January 2026 — and what they mean for HSA eligibility of cash-pay membership fees. What qualifies, what doesn't, and why legal counsel is essential before making any representations to patients about tax-advantaged payment options. Eight Questions Before You Commit A practical pre-decision checklist — eight specific questions every physician or advanced practice clinician should be able to answer clearly before committing to any cash-pay practice pathway. Key Takeaways Cash-pay primary care and concierge medicine are not the same model, do not serve the same patient populations, and should not be evaluated as interchangeable alternatives. The purist cash-pay model has grown from approximately 100 practices in 2009 to over 2,100 by 2023 — real and meaningful growth. The financial sustainability data, however, reflects consistent challenges that peer-reviewed research has documented specifically in lower-income markets and solo practice settings. The employer-integrated pathway has stronger structural sustainability — multiple revenue streams, embedded benefit relationships, and documented employer cost reductions of 12 to 20 percent over three to five years. A December 2025 Johns Hopkins study found concierge and cash-pay primary care practices combined grew 83.1 percent between 2018 and 2023. The employer-integrated model is the primary driver of that growth trajectory. Concierge medicine — particularly the PCM model — is not retreating. The global concierge medicine market is projected to surpass $34 billion by 2032 and is growing at a compound annual rate that outpaces most healthcare market segments. The National Academy of Medicine's 2021 Future of Nursing report, AAMC physician shortage projections, and peer-reviewed NP/PA outcomes research collectively point to advanced practice clinician-led direct-care models as one of the most significant underexplored opportunities in subscription-based healthcare delivery. Pattern recognition from healthcare history — price transparency, retail health, the micropractice movement — consistently shows that the distance between a compelling healthcare idea and durable scaled impact is longer and more complicated than early advocacy suggests. Models that have achieved durable scale in American primary care share one characteristic: structural fit with the economic environment, not independence from it. Sources and Citations All claims in this episode are supported by published, verifiable sources. Full citations below. Micropractice and Practice Model History Moore, G. (2002). "Accountability and Improvement in Physician Practice." Family Medicine. Moore, G. & Showstack, J. (2003). "Primary Care Medicine in Crisis." Health Affairs. healthaffairs.org AAFP TransforMED Initiative. (2006). aafp.org Nutting, P.A. et al. (2010). "Initial Lessons From the First National Demonstration Project on Practice Transformation to a Patient-Centered Medical Home." Annals of Family Medicine. Rittenhouse, D.R. et al. (2009). "Primary Care and Accountable Care." New England Journal of Medicine. Rittenhouse, D.R. & Shortell, S.M. (2009). "The Patient-Centered Medical Home." JAMA. Price Transparency Research Pathak, Y. & Muhlestein, D. (2024). "Public Awareness and Use of Price Transparency: Report From a National Survey." West Health Institute / Gallup. pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov Parente, S.T. (2023). "Estimating the Impact of New Health Price Transparency Policies." Inquiry.pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov ScienceDirect. (2025). "Outcomes of Price Transparency Policies for Healthcare Services in the United States: A Systematic Review." sciencedirect.com Retail Health Fein, A.J. (2017). "Retail Clinic Check Up: CVS Retrenches, Walgreens Outsources, Kroger Expands." Drug Channels. drugchannels.net CNBC. (2024). "Why Walmart, Walgreens, CVS Retail Health Clinic Experiment Is Struggling." cnbc.com Healthcare Finance News. (2023). "Retail Clinics Seeing Utilization Soar, Popularity Grow." healthcarefinancenews.com MedCity News. (2023). "Retail Clinics Are Gaining Momentum." medcitynews.com Cash-Pay and Subscription Primary Care Market Data MedCity News. (March 2026). "DPC Is Scaling — The Financing Architecture Isn't Ready." medcitynews.com Johns Hopkins. (December 2025). Study on concierge and cash-pay practice growth 2018–2023. As cited in MedCity News, March 2026. Liaw, W. et al. (2024). "Direct Primary Care: Financial Analysis and Potential to Reshape the U.S. Healthcare Landscape." Journal of General Internal Medicine. springer.com Lujan, D.Y. (2025). "Why Direct Primary Care Models Fail." KevinMD. kevinmd.com Doan, L. et al. (2019). "Physician Perspectives on Direct Primary Care." Family Medicine. Eskew, P.M. & Klink, K. (2015). "Direct Primary Care: Practice Distribution and Cost Across the Nation." Health Affairs. healthaffairs.org Tseng, P. et al. (2018). "Administrative Costs Associated With Physician Billing and Insurance-Related Activities." JAMA Internal Medicine. Medscape Physician Compensation Report. (2023). medscape.com Employer-Integrated Model Spann, S.J. et al. (2020). "Employer-Sponsored Direct Primary Care." Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine. National Alliance of Healthcare Purchaser Coalitions. (2021). purchaseralliance.org Kaiser Family Foundation. (2023). Employer Health Benefits Annual Survey. kff.org National Business Group on Health. (2022). businessgrouphealth.org Employers Health Coalition. (2022). employershealthcoalition.org Patient Demographics and Population Health Anderson, G.F. (2010). "Chronic Conditions: Making the Case for Ongoing Care." Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Tikkanen, R. & Abrams, M.K. (2020). "U.S. Health Care from a Global Perspective." Commonwealth Fund.commonwealthfund.org Collins, S.R. et al. (2022). "Paying for It: How Health Insurance and Healthcare Costs Are Shaping the Lives of American Adults." Commonwealth Fund. commonwealthfund.org Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2023). "Contingent and Alternative Employment Arrangements." bls.gov Petterson, S. et al. (2012). "Unequal Distribution of the U.S. Primary Care Workforce." Annals of Family Medicine. Advanced Practice Clinicians and Nursing Laurant, M. et al. (2019). "Revision of Professional Roles and Quality Improvement in Primary Care." New England Journal of Medicine. Naylor, M.D. & Kurtzman, E.T. (2010). "The Role of Nurse Practitioners in Reinventing Primary Care." Health Affairs. healthaffairs.org National Academy of Medicine. (2021). "The Future of Nursing 2020–2030." nationalacademies.org AAMC. (2021). "The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections from 2019–2034." aamc.org Legal, Tax, and Compliance Eischen, J. (2025). Legal Commentary on Cash Practice Structuring. eischenlawoffice.com DLA Piper. (2025). "Paying for Direct Primary Care Arrangements With HSAs." dlapiper.com IRS Notice 26-05. irs.gov CMS. "Opt-Out Affidavits and Private Contracts." cms.gov Organizational and Professional Identity Research Hoff, T.J. (2010). Practice Under Pressure: Primary Care Physicians and Their Medicine in the Twenty-First Century. Rutgers University Press. Scott, W.R. (2008). Institutions and Organizations: Ideas and Interests. SAGE Publications. Freidson, E. (2001). Professionalism: The Third Logic. University of Chicago Press. Wolinsky, H. & Brune, T. (1994). The Serpent on the Staff: The Unhealthy Politics of the American Medical Association. Putnam. Gevitz, N. (2004). The DOs: Osteopathic Medicine in America. Johns Hopkins University Press. Stephens, G.G. (1989). "Family Medicine as Counterculture." Journal of Family Practice. Colwill, J.M. (1992). "Where Have All the Primary Care Applicants Gone?" New England Journal of Medicine. Meltzer, D.O. & Chung, J.W. (2014). "The Population-Based Physician Workforce." Health Affairs.healthaffairs.org Bodenheimer, T. & Pham, H.H. (2010). "Primary Care: Current Problems and Proposed Solutions." Health Affairs. healthaffairs.org Grumbach, K. & Grundy, P. (2010). "Outcomes of Implementing Patient Centered Medical Home Interventions." JAMA. Concierge Medicine Market Data Grand View Research. (2022). Concierge Medicine Market Size & Growth Report. grandviewresearch.com Precedence Research. (2023). U.S. Concierge Medicine Market Size and Forecast. globenewswire.com MDVIP. (2020). Personalized Primary Care Reduces ER Visits, Hospitalizations, and Outpatient Expenditures.mdvip.com AAPP / Software Advice. (2023). "Concierge Medicine Salary and Definition." softwareadvice.com Disclaimer The DocPreneur Leadership Podcast is produced by Concierge Medicine Today, LLC, an independent healthcare leadership publication. This episode and its accompanying summary are intended for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in this episode or summary constitutes medical, legal, financial, or accounting advice. The information presented reflects publicly available research, published data, and editorial observation, and is not intended to replace the guidance of qualified medical, legal, financial, or business professionals. All factual claims are supported by named, verifiable third-party sources, which are cited in full above. Concierge Medicine Today makes no guarantee regarding the completeness or currency of external sources cited and encourages listeners to verify information independently. References to specific organizations, publications, legal decisions, or market data are provided for educational context only. Mention of any organization, publication, or individual does not constitute endorsement, and no commercial relationship exists between Concierge Medicine Today and any source cited in this episode unless otherwise disclosed. Physicians, nurse practitioners, physician assistants, and other clinicians considering any practice model change are strongly encouraged to seek qualified legal counsel with specific experience in healthcare compliance, tax structuring, and the applicable regulatory environment in their state before making any practice or business decisions. © 2007–2026 Concierge Medicine Today, LLC. All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this content without written permission is prohibited.

Are you running your construction business… or is your business running you? In this episode, Dominic Rubino talks with Dave Cooper about leadership, systems, innovation, AI, and how contractors can break out of the daily grind and step into true leadership mode. Dave shares lessons from: • Military service • Construction ownership • Scaling a building company • Offsite and modular construction • Hosting one of the construction industry's leading innovation podcasts This episode is packed with practical insights for: ✔ Cabinet shop owners ✔ Remodelers ✔ General contractors ✔ Millwork companies ✔ Construction business owners trying to scale Topics Covered: • How to move from operator to leader • Why systems matter more than hustle • Getting team buy-in and accountability • The future of AI in construction • Estimating technology and automation • Leadership lessons from the military • Why innovation matters in construction today • The future of modular and industrialized building More about Dave Cooper: Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davecooperlive/?trk Company LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/davecooperlive? Company Website: https://www.davecooper.live/? Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/davecooperlive Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/davecooper.live/? Subscribe for more episodes focused on helping contractors build profitable, systemized businesses. COMMENT below: What's the biggest bottleneck keeping you stuck in the daily grind? Also check out: Cabinet Maker Profit System: https://www.cabinetmakerprofitsystem.com Profit Toolbelt: https://www.profittoolbelt.com/ Contractor Wealth System: https://www.contractorwealthsystem.com/ DON'T FORGET TO SUBSCRIBE: @Cabinetmakerprofitsystemcom @profittoolbelt4527

About this episode: What would change if we thought of violence as an infectious disease? In this episode: a trailblazer in the movement for community-based solutions to violence, Dr. Gary Slutkin, explains how treating violence like an epidemic can point the way to solutions. Guest: Dr. Gary Slutkin is a physician and epidemiologist who founded the organization Cure Violence Global. He is also the author of the book "The End of Violence: Eliminating the World's Most Dangerous Epidemic." Host: Dr. Josh Sharfstein is distinguished professor of the practice in Health Policy and Management, a pediatrician, and former secretary of Maryland's Health Department. Show links and related content: Estimating the Effects of Safe Streets Baltimore on Gun Violence—Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Violence Solutions Interrupting Violence: How the CeaseFire Program Prevents Imminent Gun Violence through Conflict Mediation—Journal of Urban Health The End of Violence: Eliminating the World's Most Dangerous Epidemic—Penguin Random House (book) Transcript information: Looking for episode transcripts? Open our podcast on the Apple Podcasts app (desktop or mobile) or the Spotify mobile app to access an auto-generated transcript of any episode. Closed captioning is also available for every episode on our YouTube channel. Contact us: Have a question about something you heard? Looking for a transcript? Want to suggest a topic or guest? Contact us via email or visit our website. Follow us: @‌PublicHealthPod on Bluesky @‌PublicHealthPod on Instagram @‌JohnsHopkinsSPH on Facebook @‌PublicHealthOnCall on YouTube Here's our RSS feed Note: These podcasts are a conversation between the participants, and do not represent the position of Johns Hopkins University.

In this episode we answer emails from Zach, Brian, Holly and Optimus Bill.  We discuss a way to estimate retirement health care costs using current data, clear up the “index fund” labelling problem and talk about why indexed dogs and cats won't start living together, have fun with milkshakes, and map out what tends to help a portfolio survive stagflation.  But first we celebrate a huge community win for Fairfax CASA with Queen Mary.Links:J.P Morgan Inflation Study:  JP_Morgan_White_Paper_Three_Retirement_Spending_Surprises.pdf - Google DriveBen Felix Interview on Bigger Pockets Money:  Is Small Cap Value Worth It? Ben Felix Explains the Truth About AVUV & Factor InvestingHolly's Milkshake Link:  I can't believe he didn't notice

ASN Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer Tod Ibrahim explores the history of eGFR with Andrew Levey, MD, Tom Hostetter, MD, and Crystal Gadegbeku, MD. Hear how policy, equity, and care have evolved, and what future assessments demand.

ASN Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer Tod Ibrahim explores the history of eGFR with Tom Hostetter, MD, Crystal Gadegbeku, MD, and Andrew Levey, MD, founding director of the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI).

ASN Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer Tod Ibrahim explores the history of eGFR with Tom Hostetter, MD, Crystal Gadegbeku, MD, and Andrew Levey, MD, founding director of the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI).

ASN Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer Tod Ibrahim explores the history of eGFR with Andrew Levey, MD, Tom Hostetter, MD, and Crystal Gadegbeku, MD. Hear how policy, equity, and care have evolved, and what future assessments demand.

While most creators chase luxury and status, Asmongold takes a completely different approach living simply, avoiding unnecessary spending, and focusing on doing whatever he wants without pressure. It raises an interesting question: what happens when you already have more money than you need? Today Asmongold spoke about that and we took a listen, honestly, it made us like him more.00:00 – Intro: Asmongold and Caleb Hammer talk money on the AllCraft podcast.00:32 – The tax bombshell: Asmongold reveals he owed over $4 million in taxes.01:17 – Estimating the earnings: How much does Asmongold actually make?01:38 – The "2 Million Dollar" challenge: Caleb suggests Asmongold should spend more.02:05 – Commentary: Reacting to the insanity of paying $4 million in taxes.02:50 – Doing the math: Breaking down what spending $2 million a year looks like per hour.03:42 – Why Asmongold is likable: His reaction to extreme wealth and spending.04:02 – A better way to spend: Investing in talented creators and culture.05:07 – Side Scrollers' advice: Asmongold needs a new team of accountants.05:35 – The hair debate: A lighthearted critique of Asmongold's grooming habits.06:06 – Question of the day: How much money do you actually need to be happy?06:54 – Personal goals: The team discusses their "number" and living humbly.08:16 – Final thoughts: Reflecting on Asmongold's unique financial position.

Program notes:0:34 Chronotrope type and timing of exercise1:36 Sedentary adults and morning or evening type2:36 Acting as your own control3:10 Stenting for post thrombotic syndrome4:10 Severity lower with endovascular therapy5:10 Patent in 2/3 at six months6:10 Very diverse patient populations6:28 Estimating kidney function7:28 Currently underestimate compromise8:27 Deprescribing proton pump inhibitors9:27 Three different interventions10:27 Almost 15% achieved outcome in both patient and physician12:08 End

Dave talks to Alan Li from Copycatch AI to discuss how Amazon sellers can defend their products from infringement, understand the legal tools available, and learn the process of filing lawsuits to deter counterfeiters. Alan Li shares his experience with IP rights, when to pursue legal action, and how to maximize settlements. Timestamps 00:48 - IP infringement challenges on Amazon 01:16 - How Copycatch.ai helps get listings removed 03:08 - Filing lawsuits on contingency and settlement strategies 05:48 - How to distinguish infringement from generic design similarity 06:46 - Copyright protections for artistic and structural design elements 08:02 - Easiest IP to defend: trademarks vs copyrights vs patents 10:42 - The importance of registering copyrights before enforcement 13:20 - Cost and process of registering trade dress, patent, and copyright 14:31 - How to efficiently protect images and designs for e-commerce 18:31 - Filing ex parte lawsuits and obtaining TROs for swift action 20:36 - When to go straight to litigation rather than DMCA takedowns 23:34 - Estimating settlement amounts based on competitor sales and revenues 26:28 - Using settlement and sales resurgence as part of your IP strategy 29:38 - Challenges of traditional legal fees and how contingency offers a solution 31:12 - Supporting small businesses and mom-and-pop Amazon sellers 32:15 - Building enforceable IP portfolios for ongoing protection 35:19 - How to contact Alan Lee for IP infringement issues Resources & Links Copycatch.ai Quiet Light Brokerage Jungle Scout Helium 10

Why Estimating and Planning Still Matter - Mike CohnOver the years, I've talked with a lot of teams who've been burned by estimating and planning.They've seen estimates treated as promises.Plans turned into contracts.Teams punished for being wrong rather than rewarded for learning.Given experiences like those, it's understandable that many teams conclude the solution is to eliminate estimating and planning altogether.I think that's a mistake.Estimating and planning still matter—not because the future is predictable, but because it isn't. Teams and organizations still have to make decisions about what to work on, what to delay, and what risks they're willing to accept. Those decisions don't disappear just because we stop estimating.Any time we choose one piece of work over another, we're estimating. The real choice isn't whether to estimate, but whether those estimates are explicit or implicit. In my experience, explicit estimates create transparency. Implicit estimates just hide the guessing.One of the biggest problems with estimating is the belief that estimates exist to be accurate. A better question is whether an estimate is good enough to support the decision being made. When teams make that shift, estimating becomes far less stressful—and far more useful.The same is true of planning. Planning doesn't reduce adaptability. Over-commitment does. Good planning aligns assumptions and intent so teams can adjust quickly when things change.I often hear people say, “Estimates are always wrong.” Being wrong isn't the real problem. Estimates are hypotheses, and reality supplies the data. The real failure is treating estimates as promises and punishing teams when reality turns out to be more complex than expected.Before estimating or planning, I encourage teams to pause and ask three questions: What decision does this support?What happens if we're wrong?Who will use this information—and how?If those questions don't have clear answers, the problem usually isn't how the team is estimating.It's why.How to connect with AgileDad:- [website] ⁠https://www.agiledad.com/⁠- [instagram] ⁠https://www.instagram.com/agile_coach/⁠- [facebook] ⁠https://www.facebook.com/RealAgileDad/⁠- [Linkedin] ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/leehenson/

In this episode, we break down the small but powerful estimating nuances that separate average quotes from ones that actually get signed. From how you present pricing to the subtle details that build trust and confidence, you'll learn practical ways to turn more of your bids into closed deals without racing to the bottom on price.

In this episode of the Sargent On Track Podcast's Sargent 100 interview series, Sebastian sits down with Patrick Findlen, a longtime employee who joined Sargent in 1986 after returning to geology and stayed with the company through 2016. Pat shares how he helped Estimating by locating and permitting gravel, borrow, clay, and other material sources, and how that work later led him into a field-focused safety role supporting crews in both New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Along the way, he reflects on the leadership and values that shaped the company across different eras, including the importance of keeping your word, treating people fairly, and holding the line on safety.If you liked this week's episode and are interested in becoming an Employee-Owner at Sargent, please visit our careers page on the Sargent website.https://sargent.us/apply/If you have an episode suggestion, please send your idea to:sbennage@sargent.us

Kyle Stewart, Senior Manager of Estimating at Exyte, joins our host Gareth McGlynn for a conversation on preconstruction and estimating within the semiconductor and advanced technology space. An applied mathematics graduate with a stint teaching high school calculus before moving into project controls at Jacobs Engineering, Kyle now leads estimates on some of the most technically demanding construction projects being built today.Key Topics Covered:Career Path: From applied mathematics and high school teaching to project controls at Jacobs Engineering, now leading estimates on semiconductor and advanced technology facilities at Exyte.Technology & AI: The evolution of estimating technology and where AI fits into preconstruction today.Communicating Escalation: Managing and presenting rising project costs and risk to clients and stakeholders.Compressed Design and Construction Timelines: The pressures driving accelerated schedules for semiconductor and data center builds amid the AI boom.Advanced Technology Facility Complexity: The unique estimating and delivery challenges of semiconductor and high-tech manufacturing construction.Kyle delivers a technically sharp and honest look at the realities of estimating mega-scale advanced technology facilities at a time when speed, cost, and complexity are all pulling in different directions.You can connect with Kyle via his Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyleestewart/

The lawn care business can be a very enjoyable business, but there is one aspect of the business that all new beginners seem to struggle with, Estimating! Today I talk about some of the main things one needs to know and understand to be able to estimate accurately.  **Backed by EARTHAPRO** Visit www.earthapro.com Use CODE mowinginthedark25 at checkout to get 25% off your first year! Helcim Credit Card Processing: https://link.helcim.com/tNJop5Ll WaveApps: https://www.waveapps.com/   **Please give the podcast a 5 star rating and review in Apple Podcasts.** If you would like to be interviewed on the pod please send me an email and let me know. I would love to have you on. sutterbrotherslawn@gmail.com Support the Pod: http://www.buymeacoffee.com/mowinginthedark     Check out my business websites:  www.gravelblasters.com , www.sutterbrotherslawncare.com

#842 If you're feeling stuck between overplanning and underplanning, this is the episode for you! In part 1 of this powerful two-part lesson from Module 9 of our Build My Money Machine program, host Justin Williams breaks down how to create a simple, actionable, and evolving one-page business plan — and why implementation is everything. You'll learn how to clarify what you want to do, how much money you want to make, by when, and how to reverse engineer your success. Whether you're just starting or hitting reset, this lesson will help you plan smarter and take action faster! (Check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Part 2⁠!) (Original Air Date - 7/31/25) What Justin discusses on today's episode: + The danger of overplanning + Why no plan is also a problem + Your plan is a living document + Three key questions every plan answers + Importance of setting a money goal + How to reverse engineer your income + Real-world example from satellite business + Estimating numbers to reach your target + Why implementation matters more than planning + Planning as a constant, evolving process Watch the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠video podcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ of this episode! Did you love this episode? Listen to ⁠Module 8⁠ next! Ready to create a 7-figure business of your own? Go to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BuildMyMoneyMachine.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to get started today! To get access to our FREE Business Training course go to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠MillionaireUniversity.com/training⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. To get exclusive offers mentioned in this episode and to support the show, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠millionaireuniversity.com/sponsors⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Brians Questions: My sister and brother-in-law would like to recruit/hire me to install/build built-in bank of drawers and shelves for them for their new home. The only relatable experience I have with this type of woodworking is building a face frame cabinet and constructing some under the bed drawer storage, each of which I have done exactly one time. The remainder of my woodworking experience has involved making small knick-knacks such as cutting boards, boxes, etc. Considering your experience with built-in shelving and closets, I was hoping you could lend me your expertise in regards to the following questions:  1. What's the easiest way to go about coming up with accurate calculations for the amount of materials I'll need? I might need a very dumbed down explanation.  2. How do you price projects like this? Do you estimate the time it will take and give the customer a set price, or do you use a time + materials structure? I want to help my sister do this for significantly less than she would pay someone else, but I also don't want to be committing an undetermined amount of my time for free. Thanks in advance for all your help. Zach Owens I have a question about Sawstops and the brake cartridge. I recently tripped my brake last night after changing from a Forest Woodworker blade to a Diable blade. Not sure why it happened. They are both 10" blades. Any suggestions for how to prevent this from happening in the future? Mark Guys Questions: I've had this question in my mind for a few months now. How do I know when I'm qualified and ready to teach others how to woodwork? For context, I am a teacher by trade, and have only been woodworking for about 2 and a half years. I am single and have no family, so I do have a lot of time to myself. I primarily use hand tools though I occasionally break out my track saw for sheet goods. I don't have any experience with power tools like a table saw, bandsaw, jointer, planer. My dovetails range from "functional-but-ugly" to "decent", I can chop out mortises with chisels, I can joint my edges with my hand plane, and I can get my surfaces to be "flat enough". With all that said, is there a point where you know you can effectively teach others how to woodwork? Down the line, I wouldn't mind being able to teach some hand tool woodworking classes. I do want to hold myself to a high standard and to be able to teach everyone proper technique without seriously hurting themselves. Thanks in advance for your input, Jose 1. Over the past a couple years I have gotten spoiled by building with a bunch of rift sawn white oak veneer, large slabs of walnut where I can cut parts out as I see fit.  Now I can't go back to flat sawn boards!! All I see is the glue line, cathedrals that don't match, or kinda do and just a jumble of boards that just kinda go together. Am I doomed to only hunt for the straightest best grain board? How do you guys incorporate flat sawn (cathedrals) and other wildly grain boards into your work? Or are you only trying to select straight grain for table tops, and use flat sawn stuff for lesser seen parts? Jesse Huys Questions: My question is about moving my shop.  My wife and I are moving from California to Washington - about 800 miles north of us.  I'm going to upgrade from a 1 car garage shop to probably twice the space.   We're going to hire professional movers but I'm wondering how to prepare and ship certain machines.   The ones I think most about are the Sawstop, the Festool Kapex 120, the DeWalt 735 planer, and my Laguna 14" bandsaw also with wheels.   The Sawstop has an extension table.  Would you remove that or let the professional movers move the fully assembled saw?  I would remove the blade and cartridge.  How about the Kapex, planer, and Laguna bandsaw?  Any special precautions or recommendations there?    For my planes and handsaws am thinking lots of bubble wrap and packed into boxes.  Would appreciate your thoughts.  Thanks for the great show guys! Ron Novato, CA   Hi guys, I am relatively new to the podcast so maybe it has been talked about before, but I had a question about Maloof inspired rocking chairs. Have any of you attempted making a chair with a Maloof inspired design? If so, did you use/purchase a pattern and do you have any recommendations? I have found several patterns out there, but some of them are a bit pricey and I don't want to commit to a specific pattern without doing my research. I consider myself an intermediate woodworker and this would by far be the most difficult project I have attempted so any advise is appreciated. Zach

Biotech is one of the few areas in investing where specialized knowledge may still generate persistent alpha. In this episode of Excess Returns, D.A. Wallach, venture capitalist and co-founder of Time BioVentures, joins us to explain how biotech investing works, why development-stage drug companies behave like portfolios of options, and why specialist investors play such a large role in this market. We also explore the cycles that have driven biotech performance, the impact of interest rates and capital flows, and how AI and global competition may reshape the industry in the years ahead.D.A. Wallach – Twitterhttps://x.com/DAWallachTopics covered include• Why biotech may be one of the last areas where specialist investors can generate persistent alpha• The “bag of options” framework for valuing development-stage biotech companies• How probabilities of drug success and clinical base rates drive biotech valuations• Why rising interest rates hit biotech stocks harder than many other sectors• How capital flows and investor narratives create boom-and-bust cycles in biotech• What happened to biotech during the pandemic surge and the post-COVID downturn• Why AI and tech narratives compete with biotech for investor attention• The role of specialist biotech hedge funds in the public markets• How large pharmaceutical companies drive returns through biotech acquisitions• Differences between biotech venture capital and traditional tech venture investing• How venture investors evaluate drug development programs and scientific evidence• Portfolio construction and diversification when investing in highly uncertain biotech companies• The emerging role of China in clinical trials and global drug development• Whether AI can improve drug discovery, clinical trials, and pharmaceutical R&D productivity• Why investors should avoid rigid value vs growth ideologies and stay adaptableTimestamps00:00 Why biotech investing requires specialized knowledge01:40 Is biotech one of the last places for persistent active alpha?02:45 The “bag of options” model for valuing biotech companies05:00 Drug development phases and probabilities of success07:00 Using base rates to estimate clinical trial success09:20 Estimating total addressable markets for new drugs11:10 Why rising interest rates hurt biotech valuations13:00 Capital flows and why biotech underperformed in recent years15:30 The biotech boom and bust around the COVID pandemic18:00 How AI and tech compete with biotech for investor capital22:20 The role of specialist biotech hedge funds24:00 How pharmaceutical acquisitions drive biotech returns25:20 How biotech venture capital differs from tech VC30:50 Why biotech investors must evaluate complex scientific data34:20 Where AI may improve drug discovery and R&D productivity42:00 Portfolio construction and diversification in biotech venture investing44:30 Volatility, valuation marks, and private market pricing48:00 Managing risk across different drug technologies and disease areas49:30 Why China is becoming important for clinical trials53:00 Why biotech investing must be viewed as a global industry54:30 The importance of flexibility between value and growth investing58:50 Will investing become more systematic and quantitative over time

In this episode, host Kristin Hayes sits down with Resources for the Future (RFF) Senior Fellow Bryan Hubbell to look back at Hubbell's public-service career at the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). As an environmental economist, Hubbell led efforts to integrate the social sciences into EPA's environmental policy research and establish methods to calculate the benefits of clean air. Under his leadership, EPA developed the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, which has provided an accessible and rigorous way to evaluate the impacts of air-pollution regulations. The quantification and monetization of air-quality benefits are foundational to benefit-cost analyses, which Hubbell stresses are crucial to well-informed policy decisionmaking. Hubbell maintains that recent efforts to remove benefit calculations from federal benefit-cost analysis practices do not stack up against the years of stringent testing and research invested into creating these measures. References and recommendations: “If/Then: Ignoring the Benefits of Air Pollution Regulations Will Lead to Worse Policy Decisions” by Bryan Hubbell and Alan Krupnick; https://www.resources.org/common-resources/ifthen-ignoring-the-benefits-of-air-pollution-regulations-will-lead-to-worse-policy-decisions/ “How the US Environmental Protection Agency Got It Wrong About Monetizing Benefits of Air Pollution Regulations” by Bryan Hubbell and Alan Krupnick; https://www.rff.org/publications/reports/how-the-us-environmental-protection-agency-got-it-wrong-about-monetizing-benefits-of-air-pollution-regulations/ “Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act 1990–2020” from the US Environmental Protection Agency; https://www.epa.gov/clean-air-act-overview/benefits-and-costs-clean-air-act-1990-2020-report-documents-and-graphics “Estimating the Public Health Benefits of Proposed Air Pollution Regulations” from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; https://www.nationalacademies.org/publications/10511 “Particles of Truth: A Story of Discovery, Controversy, and the Fight for Healthy Air” by C. Arden Pope III and Douglas W. Dockery; https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/771621/particles-of-truth-by-c-arden-pope-iii-and-douglas-w-dockery-foreword-by-gina-mccarthy/ “The Heat Will Kill You First: Life and Death on a Scorched Planet” by Jeff Goodell; https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/jeff-goodell/the-heat-will-kill-you-first/9780316497558/ Subscribe to stay up to date on podcast episodes, news, and research from Resources for the Future: https://www.rff.org/subscribe/

Do nine-ending prices really work?  Will £9.99 sell more than £10.00? Can it be used for high-quality products? What about hedonic products? Can it be used on speed limits?  For years this debate has raged on. But today on Nudge, I speak with pricing expert Dr Markus Husemann-Kopetzky to settle the argument. ---  Markus' book: https://amzn.to/46Hetcg  Unlock the Nudge Vaults: https://www.nudgepodcast.com/vaults Join 10,534 readers of my newsletter: https://www.nudgepodcast.com/mailing-list  Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/phill-agnew/  --- Today's sources:  Gendall, P. (1998). Estimating the effect of odd pricing. Journal of Product & Brand Management, 7(5), 421–432. Husemann-Kopetzky, M. (2018). Handbook on the psychology of pricing: 100+ effects on persuasion and influence every entrepreneur, marketer and pricing manager needs to know. Independently published. ITN Archive. (2022, November 28). “I will not accept that it's a highly dangerous road” (1988) [Video]. YouTube. Kim, J., Novemsky, N., & Dhar, R. (2013). Adding small differences can increase similarity and choice. Psychological Science, 24(2), 176–182. Nunes, J. C., & Park, C. W. (2003). Incommensurate resources: Not just more of the same. Journal of Marketing Research, 40(1), 26–38. Rubinstein, A., & Yee, V. (2020). The left-digit bias: When and why are consumers penny wise and pound foolish? Journal of Marketing Research, 57(3), 467–485. Schindler, R. M., & Kibarian, T. M. (1996). Increased consumer sales response through use of 99-ending prices. Journal of Retailing, 72(2), 187–199. Shotton, R. (2018). The choice factory: 25 behavioural biases that influence what we buy. Harriman House. Suwelack, T., Hogreve, J., & Hoyer, W. D. (2011). Understanding money-back guarantees: Cognitive, affective, and behavioral effects. Journal of Retailing, 87(4), 462–478. Wadhwa, M., & Zhang, K. (2015). This number just feels right: The impact of roundedness of price numbers on product evaluations. Journal of Consumer Research, 41

The headlines shout that AI is coming for every job...We've been hearing the same siren all year, so we sat down and mapped the real fault line between work that moves data and work that moves atoms. From roofing valleys and LVL cut strategies to drone surveys and one-click renderings, we break down what actually changes on site—and what still needs a skilled human to adapt when the plan meets the weather.We start with the fear and the flashy predictions, then test them against field reality. Estimating and rendering are already transforming: a window schedule can become a clean order in seconds, and a drone shot plus a smart prompt can show a client a near-final exterior before the roof is sheathed. That's leverage for builders, not a pink slip. Meanwhile, the trades that live on ladders, in crawlspaces, and under eaves remain stubbornly resistant to automation. A demo bot can lay shingles on a clean patch; it can't climb, handle a dormer, or fix a tricky valley while checking flashing and safety. Judgment, improvisation, and accountability still belong to people.We also share practical wins that anyone can copy. Feed your estimating sheet to a smart tool and tighten formulas you've trusted for years. Use AI to minimize waste on 48-foot LVLs with real inventory constraints. Pair drones with mapping to compress weeks of surveying into minutes, then walk the land to confirm blind spots under trees. And if you're early in your career, stack trade certifications with AI fluency—be the person who turns messy inputs into clear decisions. That's how you stay valuable no matter how fast the software moves.Want more like this? Subscribe, share the show with a friend in the trades, and leave a quick review so others can find us. Then tell us: what job on your site would you never trust to a bot?

Another episode where the guest is not a sense-making prophet or a galaxy-brained guru, as we engage in academic dialogos with Oxford psychologist Andrew Przybylski. This is a preview of our Decoding Academia series on Patreon (now 30+ episodes deep), where we swap internet gurus and rhetoric for actual researchers and empirical debates.Andrew's work spans motivation, gaming, and digital technology. His most recent crime is that he studies the impact of technology and has not found evidence that it is destroying wellbeing and ushering in civilisational collapse. We discuss the ongoing moral panic around smartphones, social media, and teenagers' allegedly pulverised minds and why much of the debate rests on statistical techniques roughly equivalent to staring deeply at Excel spreadsheets and hammering SPSS until the desired narrative appears.We get into measurement problems around “screen time,” why trivially small correlations become front-page catastrophes, and how the discourse rewards confident storytelling far more than (boring) careful causal inference. Also covered: cross-cultural evidence, the policy implications of airport pop science bestsellers, and the potential civilisational threat posed by Warhammer 40k.If you enjoy episodes where we analyse methods rather than metaphysics, the full Decoding Academia series lives on Patreon.Relevant Research (Przybylski & collaborators)Andrew's Academic Profile and Personal WebsiteFassi, L., Ferguson, A. M., Przybylski, A. K., Ford, T. J., & Orben, A. (2025). Social media use in adolescents with and without mental health conditions. Nature human behaviour, 9(6), 1283-1299.Vuorre, M., & Przybylski, A. K. (2023). Estimating the association between Facebook adoption and well-being in 72 countries. Royal Society open science, 10(8).Vuorre, M., Orben, A., & Przybylski, A. K. (2021). There is no evidence that associations between adolescents' digital technology engagement and mental health problems have increased. Clinical Psychological Science, 9(5), 823-835.Orben, A., & Przybylski, A. K. (2019). The association between adolescent well-being and digital technology use. Nature human behaviour, 3(2), 173-182.Orben, A., Dienlin, T., & Przybylski, A. K. (2019). Social media's enduring effect on adolescent life satisfaction. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(21), 10226-10228.Przybylski, A. K., & Weinstein, N. (2017). A large-scale test of the goldilocks hypothesis: quantifying the relations between digital-screen use and the mental well-being of adolescents. Psychological science, 28(2), 204-215.Johannes, N., Vuorre, M., & Przybylski, A. K. (2021). Video game play is positively correlated with well-being. Royal Society open science, 8(2), 202049.Przybylski, A. K., Rigby, C. S., & Ryan, R. M. (2010). A motivational model of video game engagement. Review of general psychology, 14(2), 154-166.

Today, we are joined by Rob Carver to unpack one of the most volatile weeks seen in commodity markets in years. The conversation centers on silver's sharp rise and sudden collapse, using it as a case study in volatility targeting, liquidity risk, and disciplined position sizing. From Freaky Friday to broader dislocations across assets, they examine why systematic risk management matters when markets move faster than narratives. The discussion expands into diversification, correlation assumptions, alternative markets, and new research on trend portfolio construction, offering a grounded reminder that survival often matters more than precision.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Rob on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series03:56 - Freaky Friday in precious metals04:29 - How Rob trades silver in a volatility adjusted framework10:25 - When volatility forces position reduction12:38 - Liquidity myths in hot commodity markets16:25 - Risk management lessons from silver's collapse22:28 - Dislocations across assets beyond metals24:54 - Fed chair speculation and muted market reactions31:33 - Discretionary versus systematic decision making34:03 - Trend barometer and market breadth update37:34 - Estimating portfolio correlation from PnL41:18 - Correlation versus volatility predictability45:13 - MAN Group paper...