The Larry Kudlow Show

Redemption: Easter & Passover MAGA: US econ growing------ RGDP, cap-ex, job openings, unemployment claims, supply-side policies Next big thing? Growth message. Infrastructure, trade, immigration, Wall, N Korea, tough trade/free trade, Korus Trump v. Amazon Stock outlook: profits strong, cautious Fed, trade obstacle, FANG John Bolton Is there too much budget spending? Impoundment? Filibuster?

Surprisingly tough tariffs on China. Stk market very upset. Trump negotiating, and he may get it right (N Korea, NATO etc). But a bit of riverboat gamble if Xi doesn't play ball. However steel tariffs excluded from bunch of nations, most interestingly EU, along w/ Brazil, Argentina, S Korea and of course Canada & Mexico. This is good for NAFTA. China created this problem, Trump trying to solve it. Some negative econ hits, but small. Certain states, esp farm, will be hit. China now 1st world country; must behave like one. Adhere to WTO. Stop tech transfers & stealing intell property rights.Steel & aluminum tariffs wind up hurting China & Russia most. Trade deficits don't matter. flip side of valuable capital inflows. Deficits will grow in 3-4% econ. Why not remove taxes on all Asian countries but China? Vietnam? Coalition of willing to change China. Fed rate to 1.75% is ok. But yield curve is flattening. Profits holding up. Are stocks overreacting to tariffs? Cap-ex strong. But Admin must stay on message. Infrastructure? The Democrats abandon Catholics. Budget deal a lousy one. But Trump is right: Give him line-item veto/recission power. End filibuster.

Trump on Tariffs: A negotiating tactic. Even Feldstein. Coalition of willing to hit China. But not blanket tariffs trade war against world. Loss in Pa: What's it mean? Is Trump off message? Growth, jobs, wages, prosperity tax cuts, Phase 2 tax cuts. Liz Peek & Melissa Francis. Predicting the markets: Ed Yardeni Insiders look at SEC: Norm Champ--- preventing next crash. Sarbanes Oxcley. Dodd Frank. Volcker rule. Stocks: another down week. Why? Inflation-rates-profits? Emerging mkts? Bouroudjian-Polcari Money/politics: Will Kudlow be crushed? Trump in Pa? Off message?

Hard to find better employment report. Big jobs, moderate wages, plenty new people came to work. Growth w/out inflation. True around the world. Ed Lazear, Stanford & Hoover; Joe Lavorgna. NAIRU dead? Phillips curve dead? Trump backs off tariffs. Virtually no one will pay. They could have been harmful to US econ. Foreign retaliation. Gary Cohn leaves. Trump negotiating style: punch them in teeth first, then make a deal. Nato spending & tariffs. Why not targeted tariffs against China? Save steel w/ budget subsidies & transparency. GOP Congress & Ryan against. Nationalist? Protectionist? Or fair & free trade? Dan Henniger, deputy editor WSJ editorial page. Trump's Hoover temptation. Apres Cohn, le deluge? Trump's Tariff folly. Trump attacks WSJ. Trump's tariffs hurt trade, which is good. Tear down barriers. Capital inflows. Stocks w/ Jon Najarian & Jeff Kleintop: overheating? Inflation? Tariffs? Jobs? Gen Jack Keane: N Korean story. Trump sanctions work? Denuclearize? Planning for meeting? Goals? Money/Politics: Trump going for clean reset? Bossie & Lewandowsky in WH? McMaster? Kelly? JiVanka?

Blanket tariffs on steel & aluminum a bad idea. Tax hike on biz users & consumers. Prosperity-killer? Will it doom NAFTA? All hell could break loose. Stocks saying don't do it. Trade wars are not good. Same 25% & 10% steel & aluminum for allies & enemies. Veronique de Rugy & money politics. POTUS has exec authority to do it. I continue to urge Gary Cohn to stay on job. More trade battles coming. OMB Director Mick Mulvaney interview. GDP growth pays for tax cuts. Spending tougher than you think. Econ strong. Trade protection not good. What can be done w/ CFPB? Not much. Former 3-time NYS Gov George Pataki. How can GOP re-capture Northeast? Outlook for mid-terms? Econ? Taxes? Immigration? Guns? Nancy Tengler & Mike Ozanian on stocks? Another down week. Damage from trade protection. NAFTA? Trade war? Inflation may roar back? Powell looking at rule-based monetary policy. Taylor rule. Profits & revenues? Longs & shorts? Gen Jack Keane: Trade war & foreign policy?Allies & enemies both hit. Russian saber rattling. Chinese dictatorship. Tsi for life? Money & Politics: New data counters liberal pessimism. Trade politics. Cohn to stay? I say yes. Canada & others go to WTO?

Mary Kissel & Liz Peek: What's Trump gonna do about guns? School guards (ex cops)? Age limit? Teachers packing guns? Restraint order? Automatic weapons? Gun bump? Is it NRA, or drug companies who prescribe crazies really bad drugs? Dems gonna get bushwhacked in mid-terms? Econ/tax cuts? Dems rooting for stk & econ failure? Trump nails them on immigration? Trump rocks CPAC! 7 more years? 50% Rasmussen poll approval. Why is America at war w/ itself? How Billy Graham changed my life-- George Bush quit drinking. Kevin Hassett CEA chair releases Trump econ report. Growth? Inflation? Wages-inflation? Wage-earners helped the most? JPM & Goldman say no. Steel protection? NAFTA? Trade deficit? Foreign investors buy US debt? Weak dollar inflation? Interest rates? Guy Adami & Ron Kruszewski on stocks? 10-year going to 4%? Real v inflation? Sometimes Stks up as rates rise. Fed tighter? Profits strong? Stk safety net? BoA worried about cryptocurrencies. Congressman Tom MacArthur on Legislative outlook: Immigration, guns, infrastructure, entitlements in budget. US at war w/ itself. Noelle Nikpour, Jimmy P, Steve Moore: Trump budget-- OMB. Much better numbers. Tax Foundation deficits much lower. Dems attack shareholder repurchase. Investment boom coming on fast. What are big donors saying about Trump & mid-terms?

Trump must return to KingDollar to sustain prosperity and march to re-election. @Moore, Steve @James Pethokoukis@Elizabeth Peek Will infrastructure be a boondoggle or serious growth measure? Fed gov't? Public/Private? Is there an inflation threat? @Lavorgna Joseph @Lavorgnanomics. Capgoods boom? More potential to grow? @davidbahnson: " A Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It." Sen Bill Cassidy: Rising GOP mid-term outlook w/ tax cut popularity & growth/jobs/wages. Russian Indictments? No Trump collusion? Infrastructure. Sen David Perdue: Is Trump budget really so bad? Reform entitlements? Workfare? Deficits & Debt? Budget reform? Immigration gonna make it? Stock market comes back strong. Have rates peaked? Correction over? Inflation fears? Deficits & debt worries? Bitcoin update?

Is GOP still party of spending restraint? Is Tea Party over? 2-year budget deal eliminates spending caps & sequester. Special tax breaks ? Entitlements? Medicaid? OB-Care? Rules? 20%/GDP ? Cong Mark Meadows, chair of Freedom Caucus Is economy fundamentally sound? So stocks still good buy at lower prices? War on Rich won't help the poor: https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-war-on-the-rich-wont-help-the-poor-1518134282?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1 It's real interest rates from stronger economy that led to 10% stock correction. Vix derivatives? Profits still mother's milk of economy? When to buy? https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-slump-continues-1518138066 The post-war Marshall plan helped save West European democracies from Communism. Will Trump America First weaken alliance? https://www.wsj.com/articles/review-when-the-marshall-plan-helped-plot-a-new-course-for-the-west-1518212300 https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-china-impose-a-new-world-order-1518219178 Seton Hall speech on JFK & the Reagan Revolution-----Kudlow & Domitrovic Is White House again splintering into disorder? Kelly-Porter-Thornton-Cohn-Mulvaney American Spies gave $100K to Russian to get dirt on Trump!!!!

Whole Russian investigation a scam based on phony dossier from Clinton payroll. Give Mueller 3 months to rap it all up. There's no there there. 600 point stock drop from higher real & market rates and stronger economy. Correction a good thing. Buy the dip. Don't forget excellent Davos & SOTU speeches. America open for biz. Free, fair & reciprocal trade; no NAFTA pullout. Appeal to Dems cooperation. Euro social justice ceos may hate Trump, but now they're behind his policies cause he's making so much money for them. Do Dems really want immigration reform? Doubtful. Budget shutdown. Debt limit. Infrastructure? Strong jobs report. Wages rising. Econ shifting into high gear. Supply-side impact from tax rate reduction. More people working do not cause inflation. Gold falling. Mid-term election looks much closer w/ rising econ, end of Russian nonsense, Trump wanting immigration deal. What do Dems represent besides Trump hating.

America First Triumphs in Davos. Open for business. Going to Davos a brilliant strategy. But America First does not mean America Alone. Trump accommodating NAFTA & TPP? Reciprocity. Dollar will get stronger & stronger. Increasingly prominent Sen David Perdue standing w/ Trump on immigration. Tax reform investment boom. SOTU preview. Stocks still on a tear. New records. Dollar? Gold? Oil? Strong investment. Profits. Fed rate hike? Did Trump really want to fire Mueller? Should he? Should he appear under oath before Mueller? What's this classified document w/ Clinton operatives & phony dossier & FISA? Will secular stagnationists Larry Summers and Jason Furman eat crow. A new more flexible Trump on trade, immigration? Policy power of Gen Kelly?

Trump tax cuts & regulatory rollback are transforming econ. Private sector biz leading charge. Apple & WalMart key decisions. Capex, wages, jobs & growth. How to make immigration work: Prof Ed Lazear of Stanford- Hoover. Interest rate induced correction in stock market? Why is dollar weak? Dems would rather have gov't shutdown than help Dreamers w/ full reform of immigration. Want to raise worker wages? Cut corp tax.

Immigration puzzle. Trump swears, but so what? Many presidents do. Not racism, but frustration . Durbin wants visa lottery, Trump doesn't. Terrorist killed 8 and injured 8 in NYC from Visa Lottery. Trump wants merit program, not equal diversity. DACA must be accompanied by wall/barrier/drones/policing/window. $18b. Merit, not family chain. Can there be bi-partisan deal? Dems rather talk about racism than immigration. Ryan: " Very unhelpful...very unfortunate." Remarkable stock market continues. Wall St raising growth & profit forecasts. Higher real rates & correction? 3% RGDP, 15% profits, big capex, stronger consumer. Wall St analysts crediting Trump. Dudley & Kaplan fear overheating. Demand-siders. Dudley never understood supply-side incentives to raise econ potential to grow. Where's inflation? Watch gold, dollar, Breakevens, TIPS. Energy push temporary. Mainstream media wrong: corps already paying higher wages. Much more to come from investment boom.3 straight 3% growth quarters first time since Bush tax cuts 2005. WalMart big wage hike. Toyota plant in Alabama. Davos good idea for Trump. World central stage to promote econ growth. Tax & regulatory rollback. Infrastructure. Immigration. Foreign policy triumphs. Along w/ 55 minute immigration meeting in Cabinet Room, shows world how capable he is. Like Reagan G-7 in 1981-83. Bannon & Wolff wrong. Medicaid work requirements completely right. New IRS w/holding schedules, w/ brackets & marginal rates. States want charitable deductions to replace SALT deduction. Legal? Municipality v. state? Why not just cut state taxes? Lower taxes reduce deficits, not raise them. Trump on NAFTA. Rather negotiate, but will pull out. Bad for biz & market. $71b trade gap w/ Mexico. $17n w/ Canada. So what?

Bannon belly-up, stocks soar. His brand of populism is anti-growth. Trump decision to cut ties w/ Bannon a great decision. Good for Trump, economy, international relations. Bannon out at Breitbart? Political meaning of rift? Bannon PAC is dead. Will Dems back Bannon to attack Trump? Michael Wolff? Camp David meeting to determine 2018 agenda. Welfare reform, infrastructure, budget, immigration. Where's Steven Mnuchin? Cohn stays? $18b wall/barrier? Mexico pays? Chain migration? Merit system? Sanctuary cities? Econ growth 3-4%? Manufacturing rebound? Biz investment cap-ex boom? Wages already rising, much more coming? Will Fed panic? Gold flat under Yellen; dollar up 16%. Price rule? Powell cautious in 2012. Came around. Lauds Fed staff forecasts. Decent jobs report. 10-year bond jump to 3-3.5%? Stocks driven by good profits outlook & tax cuts. Earnings revised up to 12% in '18. Techs,energy, materials, financials, insurance/reinsurance. BUT: key factor is rate rise from better growth & capital returns. Long rate correction in stocks? Then rally continues

rump/GOP will do well in 2018. Don't listen to fake news pundits & fake polls. Investment boom econ after tax cuts. Key to everything. And everyone will benefit. Rasmussen/McLoughlan: 46-53, same as Obama. The world according to Art Laffer. Growth pay-for deficits. Dollar? Fed? Lindsay v. Clarida? Stocks? Supply-side tax cuts not inflationary. Blinder says corps pay taxes, not people! Corp tax cuts don't affect people. Trade war fears? Top 10 accomplishments made for strong 2017. What's in store for 2018? Budget battle runs into infrastructure. Dems want $1 tr from gov't. Tough trade tariff actions for NAFTA, China, steel, aluminum. China caught selling fuel to China--Russia too. Daca, Wall, refugees, tighter restrictions on legal immigration, Merit replaces family chain. Let Trump be Trump. Home run NYT interview. Staff didn't know. So what? Trump made his own plate at Christmas buffet Mara Lago-- talks to many people. 2018 econ outlook? Tax cuts, profits, rates, SALT effect, global econ better. US boom helps world. Can stocks do it again in 2018? Best & worst in 2017. Correction? Oil, gold, rates, bitcoin. Wealth effect? Goldman takes $5b 1-time hit. Stay w/ financials? Tax cuts priced in? GOP tax cut Is Dems worst nightmare. Reviving econ, jobs, wages, etc. Isn't 4% better than 2%? Fake polls. Trump endorses Ron DeSantis Fla. Gov.

Trump snatches victory from jaws of defeat. Dems in very bad place. Front end of first investment boom in 20 years. Proof of the pudding is in the eating. 4% is better than 2%. Don't you agree? Corporate tax cut dividend. Higher GDP pays for lost revenues. Middle class winner? Rising tide lifts all boats: everyone wins. Mid-term outlook much better w/ tax cuts & growth. No mid-term disaster (The Hill). Polling is awful. Take-home pay in February. Tax revolt in blue states? Stock boom continues. Higher 10-year to 3.5%? Profits? Fed? Multiples? Sell 100-year bonds? Gen Keane on Trump Doctrine/national security strategy. Economic security is national security. China/Russia? Money politics: Jimmy P welcomes Trump tax cut! Budget fight? Next agenda.

Pro-growth tax reform sets stage for investment boom. Everyone benefits. JTC: higher GDP pays for tax cuts. Most powerful growth factors.FIFO out. One need not be pro-child credit to be pro-child. Social engineering. High rates & big credit doesn't work. Front end of investment boom. Look at biz equipment. 3rd straight 3% quarter. Retail sales. Fed isn't tax cut enemy. No inflation. 3 more hikes in 2018? Why? Investigate investigators. FBI story spinning out of control. Clinton operatives running investigations. Insane. Trump-hating lawyer trying to pay women to come forward w/ new allegations. Sell to media. Take commissions. Incredible tale of reckless partisan FBI Strzoka and girlfriend. Bitcoin boom? Regulations? Stocks too high? Global growth and liquidity. No inflation. Big stock market week. Dollar & gold steady. McLaughlin poll warnings. Money Politics. Bannon dead. Defending Rubio.

Corey Lewandowski and David Bossie on new book: Let Trump be Trump Liz Peek and Mark Simone on the treatment of Trump by the press Stock market and all financial indicators all up. Here comes the Boom! Money and politics discuss the tax cut bill and the economic effects

Sen Roy Blunt of GOP leadership will talk about Senate tax bill & next steps. Will back door capgains tax hike on individuals be taken out? Charlie Gasparino & Dan Clifton talk taxes. Trillions more in revenues. I'd vote for it. You should, too. Pluses & minuses. Trump expects to be cleared in Mueller probe despite Flynn plea. John Hinderaker & David French talk Flynn, Mueller & Trump. No collusion. Weak case. Kevin O'Leary & Stephen Weiss: Biz tax cuts & flying stock market. Doug Schoen's new book "Putin on the March." He is succeeding. Trump policy. Mueller? Tillerson gone?

Art Laffer's outlook for taxes, Fed, rates, econ, stocks. Steve Moore on Soros' $18b tax dodge. Tax bill update: key points:corp rate & implementation/retroactive; small biz pass-through treatment/Johnson; ACA mandate repeal; SALT; corp interest deduction; back-door capital gains hike. Alabama certifies Dec 26. Much to be grateful on economy; cap-ex rising; share buybacks falling; 3.4% RGDP. Proper poll weighting R's & D's show different results, esp. taxes. Bruce Bartlett : "The Truth Matters"---- killing fake news. Stocks soaring. Fed rate hike Dec;what about 2018? Kill off tax cuts w/ Phillips Curve? Black Friday? Consumers decent shape, what about retail stocks? Trump effect?

GOP momentum for tax cuts. Ain't perfect, but biz side pro-growth. POTUS wants 35% top rate. Sen Ron Johnson wants bigger tax cut for small biz. Will O-Care mandate repeal work? Tax the rich so boring & stupid. Oren Hatch cleaned Sherrod Brown's clock. Schumer playing Salt. Good polling shows people want tax cuts. Wilbur Ross & NAFTA time-bomb. Roy Moore could be a problem. Jones ahead. 1 week to swear in. Dec 12 election. Do stock funds have to sell old stuff first? 2-week stock drop, but no recession in sight. God, Faith & Reason by Michael Savage.

Pro-growth tax bill is on the way before year. Tax Foundation details of Senate bill. House has much bigger tax cuts first couple of years--Dan Clifton. Why not 3% growth? Nuclear option for Byrd rule. Why CBO always wrong. Why tax cuts are really fair---- Larry Kotlicoff. Get rid of corp tax altogether. All out war: Plot to destroy Trump. Ed Klein. Trump's Pacific Trade Tear. GOP retirements threaten House majority. Dump Roy Moore? Tied w/ Dem opponent. Senate campaign pulling money. He dated teen aged girls. Donna Brazile blows whistle on Dem Party corruption. Stocks down first time in many weeks. Buy the dip.

GOP House tax bill. Good on biz, not good on individual side. But enough for 3% + growth. Corp tax cuts will pay for themselves and then some. Minimal tax on US & foreign profits? Back door BAT? Hidden tax hike on rich? Pass-Through confusion. Maybe a B+ total grade. Must ignore JTC & CBO estimates. Productivity from capital formation is everything for growth & wages. Trump: tax cut passage gives GOP strong economic narrative Nov 2018. Andrew Jackson wins Battle of New Orleans & saves America. Brian Kilmeade new book. Jay Powell is weak Fed head appointment. Phillips curve. Won't rock boat w/ reforms. Trump tax cuts v. Fed wage inflation fears. Shouldn't Hillary get busted for DNC & uranium sale? End diversity lottery now. Jobs decent. Econ rising. No recession. Profits up. Stocks melt-up? Dem budget & taxes insanity. All tax the rich & single-payer health system.

Fate of the dollar held by next Fed chair. But no one talks about this. King Dollar necessary to bolster tax cuts & maximize growth. Next Fed chair? Trump announces this week. Why would GOP raise tax on millionaires? 401(k)? Salt? Why Dems doubt America's ability to produce & compete? Fast-track tax cuts? CEA/Hassett sees faster growth, more jobs, higher after tax wages for middle class wage earners. Trump gets boost from 3% econ. Biz investment up, anticipating tax cuts. Stocks up, gold down, dollar up. Growth trades. Carly Fiorina honored by The Human Life Review dinner for Great Defender of Life. Crazy story about Free Beacon funding GPS Fusion Trump Russia dossier. What about uranium deal? Mueller's first charge filed.

GOP still not have 50 Senate votes for budget. Thad Cochrane deathbed. SALT? Corp rate phase-in terrible idea. Don't let process stop good policy. Suspend rules to win. Play hardball like Dems. Growth, not deductions is key point. Gen Kelly: longer Fed process. More interviews. Yellen? Warsh-Taylor ticket? Growth v inflation. End Phillips curve. Chair should favor Trump growth policies. Trump won't certify Iran. Put to Congress. Will Afghan policies work? 16 years. Taliban. What's different now? Trump stops cost-sharing subsidies to insurance co's. Dereg mandates for more choice. Stocks still rising. No recession. No inflation. New profit numbers. If budget not passed, stocks vulnerable. New Fed chair. Insurance & hospitals at risk. Jamie Dimon attacks bitcoin. Nafta? If other countries subsidize, should we? If they're not free market, why should we? We didn't go socialist, or communist. But we won econ war. Imports v. exports.

Kevin Hassett spanks TPC. corp taxes & wage-earners. Lower marginal rates = growth. Gary Cohn: 3% growth ultimate pay-for? How you gonna get it done? Process must not block growth policies. Hardball. GOP mau-maued on top rate? Class warfare never works. Why penalize success? End war on biz? Salt? Deal? Inheritance? Timing after budget Res? End investment penalties? Earnings stripping? Global minimum tax? Capgains? State of econ? Trump factor? Massive dereg-- Treasury yesterday. Fed orthodoxy: rapid growth causes inflation? High rates choke off Trump boom? Trade worries: NAFTA & Chamber. Car parts. US domestic content. No arbitration. Why are trade deficits bad? Whirlpool v. Samsung? Whirlpool? Anti-dumping? Injurious to US firm? Why are trade deficits bad? Capital inflows? Stocks: Fear Not. 20 x next year's earnings. Rising econ, profits, capex, dollar. Gold falling. Cyclical growth stocks. Neal Freeman: Skirmishes. Bill Buckley changed conservatism? Mayor run in '65. Where is conservative movement now? Trump? Money & Politics: Why can't Dems cut taxes? JFK? Senate budget res get job done?

Trump galvanizing tax cuts. Incentives matter. Mentioned JFK. Growth cynics. Reconciliation process must not block good policy. Phil Gramm's numbers. Will tax cuts pass? Should they? Temporary or permanent? Senate budget resolution. Tom Price gets the boot. POTUS interviewed Warsh & Powell. Stocks anticipating tax cuts? Gold keeps falling. Real rates going up? Bill O'Reilly's "Killing England."

Health reform not dead: Murkowski, Paul, Alexander (couldn't make bipartisan deal w/ Patti Murray on insurance cost sharing bailout.) Last chance to reverse O-Care, stop single payer or Bernie's free medicare. GOP messaging on risk pools $150b savings, federal safety net. Premiums falling. More choice, state waivers, private markets, end mandates. Mandate taxes fall heavily on poor. Trump in better shape. Hurricanes, UN, Rocket Man, tax cuts and reform, polls rising. Could end up w/ health & taxes. Questions on G-C: change medicaid funding, block grant redistribution to states (37% of funding go to Cal, NY, Md, Mass.) Pre-existing conditions, enrollment, premiums. Harvard poll says everyone wants tax cuts. Luther Strange v. Roy Moore. Breitbart v. Trump. Trump takes command & UN. Rocket Man. Iran. Sovereignty. Radical Islam Terrorists. Righteousness: moral base of Admin. Tough financial sanctions. China agrees. Toomey-Corker deal: $1.5 tr tax cuts. Accept deficits couple of years. 20-year window. 3% growth. 15% corp rate. Loophole closers. Tuesday announcement from G-6. Ways & Means Sunday-Monday. Stocks up, gold down, commodities up, materials, industrials banks up. Tax cut growth play? Bond rates up. Does anyone care about Fed?

Trump turnaround makes tax cuts much more likely. 10 weeks. Ryan shifts on revenue neutrality. Mnuchin holding ground on 3% & 15%. Last chance for GOP healthcare reform. Till Sept 30. Ron Johnson bullish. Where is Senate on budget res & reconciliation instructions? Not even Krugman likes Bernie Sanders' single-payer Medicare health. Employer coverage, tax hikes. Milton Friedman: "If you think healthcare is expensive now, wait till you get it for free." Trump's new world: Kelly (Rob Porter) control info. Bi-partisan on immigration & other deals. Positive media coverage. Trump favors optics & positive impressions, not details. Tax the rich. Middle class. Dreamers. But where is Trump tax details? Filling courts w/ conservatives. Fred Barnes & Nick Johnston Axios. Financial markets. Tax cuts haven't seeped in yet. Draft legislation sooner. Buy stocks, sell bonds, buy dollar, sell gold. Profits are mother's milk of stocks. Inflation tax cut. Kotok & Kruszewski. Fed meeting next week: balance sheet, rates, inflation. Is there an immigration deal? Wall? Green cards? 11 million? Students? Sanctuary cities? Deport criminals? Catch & deport? Mark Krikorian & Tamar Jacoby. What does amnesty mean? Money & Politics: Trump turnaround & taxes? Chuck & Nancy? Trump as independent? Ryan turnaround? 3% & 15%? WH & rich people? Bannon bashes Trump on immigration? Single-payer Medicare? Krugman? Moore, Pethokoukis, McIntyre.

Full hurricane coverage Bill Evans @evansweather. Don't blame hurricanes on Climate Change. Trump deals w/ Schumer-Pelosi for shrewd deal on hurricane relief, debt limit, CR. Clears way for tax cuts & reform. Sends message to McConnell-Ryan. 3% & 15% & wage-earning middle class.He's absolutely committed. Missouri, N Dakota, Milwaukee Sentinel. Neeed Congressional timeline. Need specifics from WH. Need Budget Res for sequester instructions. Need 50 more Trump speeches. Stocks down. Deep dollar dive? Commodity rally? Higher inflation? Fed moves on rates & balance sheet? Profits still strong. Cost-price better. Productivity up. Impact of Harvey & Irma? Myth of Trump do nothing presidency-- 800 regs frozen, rolled back, reclassified. Workers: Fear not robots or AI. Craig Shirley's new book: Citizen Newt. When will Gary Cohn leave? Warsh-Yellen-Powell 3 finalists. Trump polls up: Bi-partisan Fema, debt, handling hurricanes, econ improving. High corp rate yields low revenues. Aparna Mathur.

Trump's excellent tax speech. 3% growth, 15% biz rate. Link biz tax cuts to wage-earners. Simplification. Middle class. Working people. Deductions end for top earners. End war against investment, biz & success. End class warfare. Supply-side. Details in few weeks. Policy baseline gives $500b cushion. Growth pay-for. Funding Harvey-Fema? Emergency Supp? CR? $200b? Debt limit (gold)? Big support for Trump tax cuts in Trump states. McCaskill, Donnelly, Mansion, Heitkamp. Under pressure. Kevin Warsh takes Fed lead in predictit betting markets. Wonderful oil traders story in Texas. Profits, rescues, contributions. Oil/gasoline impact? Is Gold about to break out? Debt limit fears? Solid but not spectacular jobs. No Fed till year end (maybe). Soft wages, easing inflation, Harvey. Inflation tax cut. Profits booming. Discounted present value model shows stock rally continues. Roger Stone: Making of President 2016. McMaster out. Tough on Bannon. Medical marijuana. Trump/Kelly new team. Trump drafted letter to fire Comey. Did Comey exonerate Hillary before investigation finished?

Fed-Ex CEO/founder Fred Smith on 3-4% growth policy. Tax reform, infrastructure, free & fair trade. Steve Liesman/Nick Timirao on Fed: 2-horse race for chair? Other appointees? Cohn on money? Yellen on regs? Get rid of Phillips curve? Gold/commodities flat since 2011. No inflation, while growth improves. Global growth better--IMF. Cohn on moral clarity. Bouroudjian/Kelly on stocks. Gov't shut-down? Debt limit? Commodity rally? Dollar fall? Stocks starting correction? Aerospace-defense? Gen Jack Keane on Afghanistan: Doable? Terrorist-hunting not nation-building? Pakistan? India? Take hand-cuffs off military? N Korea launches 3 duds. Budding Sunni Arab coalition of Saudis, Jordan, UAE, Egypt & Jordanto help w/ Israel-Palestine conflict? Moore/Peek/Nickpour: money & politics? No WH tax plan; leave details to Congress committees. Trump to start barnstorming. From Breitbart: Disciplining the prez. Bannon, Gorka, NSC staffers out. Trump war w/ McConnell, Ryan, McCain, Flake?

Goodwin/Kissel on Charlottesville & Bannon: collapse of presidency? Legitimacy? Dealing w/ GOP Congress? Isolated? Stable presidency? Need Monday-type speech on race? Should have spoken at funeral of Heather Heyer? Infrastructure drowned out? N Korea concession on Guam drowned out? More changes? Gen Kelly up to task? Bannon interview w/ American Prospect Kuttner straw that broke camel's back? New strategist? Steve Miller? Populism message? Overturn elites? travel ban? Immigration?Paris climate accord? Gasparino/Benko on Bannon, Charlottesville & business: Biz walk away? Stay w/policies on tax, reg, infrastructure, trade? Chamber? BRT? Outlook for tax cuts & reform?Debt ceiling? Budget resolution? Less trade protection? Doesn't Trump need a growth message re-set? Infrastructure message blown away? Role of Gary Cohn? Fed by Sept 15? Stay for tax reform? Wall St/Goldman telling him to leave? Judeo-Christian capitalism? Econ growth most populist action. Sound money & tax cuts. Economic nationalism? Globalism? Revenue neutral v. deficit neutral? 3% growth? MUST PASS TAX CUT. Bannon ouster good for biz? Adami/McDonald: why did stocks fall? Cohn factor? Fed rate hike? Profits strong? Dollar rebound? Most important signals for mkt? Rich Clarida: How's the economy? Atlanta Fed Q3= 3.8%. But manufacturing slow, also biz equipment. Low inflation is a tax cut. Why higher? Fed & rate outlook? What needs to be done? Productivity? Moore/Pethokoukis/McCaughey: money & politics? Blacks prospering under Trump? Business rivals agree on policy (Fed-Ex Fred Smith & UPS David Abney). Bi-partisanship? Besides statues, what is Dem policy?

Amb. John Bolton on N Korea et al. Trump fire & fury; military solutions locked & loaded; big consequences if Guam; could be Venezuela too. Isn't Trump playing his cards exactly right? Mattis talks military solution, but diplomacy first. Harder sanctions on China banks, energy exports etc. Beefing up US missile systems. Reagan: Evil Empire; not contain but overthrow Soviet communism; 10 seconds to bomb Russia. He used major econ sanctions on Sovs. But his SDI system run down by Clinton/Gingrich, papa Bush, Obama & W. We can hit small number of missiles, but not all. Would we ever hit N Korea pre-processing & launch systems? Mattis: If they hit Guam, would lead to end of regime & destruction of its people." From Clinton on, we appeased: lite water nuclear reactors & fuel oil. N Korea back to plutonium by 2002. Gasparino, Tamney & Trennert: Tax reform outlook (Brady dinner). Rates, depreciation, standard deduction, core biz gets full break, 20 year buildings less. CBO: drain the swamp. Index capgains. Trump factor on stocks & econ. Where is McConnell & Senate? Trump right to chide him. 29m small biz helped by tax cuts & frozen or withdrawal of 860 pending regs.Weak dollar doesn't make a strong economy. Phillips curve dead. Fed must change. Kevin O'Leary & Mike Ozanian talk stocks. N Korea impact? Profits? Low inflation tax cut. No spiking bond rates? Buy after bad week? Longer-term? Middle class benefits from stock bull. Fav sectors? Brian Domitrovic & LK talk about new paperback edition of JFK & Reagan Revolution.JFK surpassing Legacy: Growth is everything. Solves nearly all problems. JFK & RR turned back on FDR New Deal. No class warfare. Trump in their tradition. Dems today erased JFK legacy. No growth, just gov't redistribution. Moore, Peth, McIntyre: No Trump effect on stocks & econ? Confidence? Regs? Milton Friedman killing death tax? Retroactive tax cuts? Senate dead? Brady sees whole package. WH has fall-back plan B. Trump's immigration is popular.

Good jobs report. Wage income up. Employment rate up.Tax cuts coming. Trump channeling JFK-Reagan growth. Middle class benefits from stock rally. End war on biz, success, fossil fuel. The myth of Trump's do-nothing presidency: massive regulatory rollback. Greg Ip. Maine's 2 senators let us down: Gov Paul LePage blasts them. Medicaid. Tax cuts (not Kansas). Trump outlook. DC policy up-date: Valliere & Gabriel. Insurance bailout. Tax cut schedule. Mueller's grand jury. Gen John Kelly. Trade policy threats. Stock rally: Kilburg & Munson. Jobs. Fed? Commodities/dollar? Trump rally? Immigration: Krikorian. Merit, not family-based. Great start. Emily Lazarus. Too few legals? Money & Politics: Francis, Moore, McIntyre. Trump v. GOP? Trump base holding up? Dem bi-partisanship? GOP more united on taxes? Ryan CBO green-eye-shade? Trump stocks? Trump jobs? Gen Kelly rally?

Cong. Mark Meadows: General Kelly in, Priebus out. Will other shoes fall? Bannon, Sessions, Mueller. Trump used Scaramucci rant attack to oust Priebus. Targeting jobs and downplaying CBO. Will there be a GOP health bill? Was he satisfied with the joint statement on taxes from Senate/House and WH. Investigate Loretta Lynch/Comey? Alan Reynolds: what should the tax cut look like? What will it look like? Can we get 3 percent growth? Deficit neutral vs. revenue neutral? What shape is the economy in? Does health bill collapse damage GOP tax effort? GDP: 2% growth, 1.5% inflation, what does that mean? Stocks with Jon Najarian and Michael Cuggino: Dow posts record close as Wall Street shakes off Amazon’s fall. No BAT tax, good for retailers. Fed? Dollar? Copper, China? Kilmeade/Nikpour: is the White House staff unraveling? Whose neck gets chopped off next? Using Scaramucci as a messenger? Sessions/Mueller/Bannon? Never Trump Republicans say POTUS is an authoritarian undermining democracy because he fired Comey. Money/Politics: is Paul Ryan’s green eyeshade CBO devotion going to derail tax cuts? Is Plan B — 3 Easy Pieces still in play? POTUS put Gary Cohn on the list for Fed chair (per WSJ). Next steps for GOP healthcare. Greg Ip’s column on Trump deregulation.

Newt Gingrich: :Understanding Trump. Plus deficit neutral tax cuts. GOP senators betray voters who sent them to DC to kill OB-Care. Changes in WH: Spicer resigns, Scaramucci & Sara Huckabee Sanders. How to solve healthcare: Reagan's half loaf. But what about medicaid disaster? What's holding up global stocks? Bubble? Dollar weak or strong? Profits beat? Jeb Henserling wants financial choice, end Dodd-Frank. Distinguished academics tout 3% growth potential. Trump wants 15% corp tax, not fake news 25%. Ryan becoming problem. BAT still alive. I give Trump B grade first 6 months. W/ tax cuts, an A. Trump handling NAFTA exactly right. Pray for John McCain. Joe Rago passing a tragedy.

45 minutes of Art Laffer & Steve Forbes: CBO v. Trump-Mulvaney on 3% growth budget. Is Senate health bill worth supporting? Investment tax stays in? Biz won't pull investment trigger until biz tax cuts? Trade war threats? Dollar policy? Poor econ numbers? Fed? Who should be next Fed chair? Jason Riley: False Black Power. Political, but not econ gains. Better 50 years ago? Doug Schoen: America in the Age of Trump. But what's Dem message besides hating Trump & Russian collusion? Econ down and stocks are up? Profits? Banks? Fed should restrain its restraint? No inflation. At best 2% growth. Probably 1.5% inflation. Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2.4%. Risk of recession? Money Politics: Ted Cruz off-ramp? Insurers oppose. Pence/Mulvaney working the Hill. Maganomics from Mulvaney. Budget balance at 3% growth. Fed chief? Trade threat? Jamie Dimon rant. Healthcare tax on investment stays in. Tax cuts/reform coming even w/out health deal?

Trump has Putin over a barrel. Good jobs report. But Fed should restrain its restraint. More people working at longer hours not inflationary. Get able-bodied people off the couch. OB-Care lost 250K jobs per year; 2.5m over 10. 49ers & 29ers. War on biz & fossil fuels over. Regs rolled back. Waiting for 3 Easy Pieces tax cut. McConnell says may not be able to repeal OB-Care. Cruz amendment? Big 6 on tax reform? No Aug recess. Reconcile biz tax cuts w/ health package? 57 legislative calendar days thru year end. Trump seems militant on trade protection. 232 all wrong. China 2.9% steel imports. Canada #1. Europe retaliate? China & N Korea? Why no currency deal? Better than trade protectionism. Will US intercept N Korea missiles in flight? On ground before launch? More defense spending on triad? Reagan vision. Believe Putin on Syria? Believe China econ sanctions? Good jobs report. But Fed should restrain its restraint. More people working not inflationary. No market based inflation signals. M2 & Base way down. Defense stocks a good play w/ N Korea & elsewhere? Stay long stocks? Blue state budget breakdowns. Tax hikes make it worse. Illinois, CT, NJ. Tax cut states doing well. Florida magnet. Bannon raising top tax-rate? Biz taxes more important. Across-the board. Lower rate & broader base.

Health deal? GOP wusses (taxes, spending). Polls are killing GOP. Public not persuaded lower premiums (ending mandates). Repeal only? FDA good on prices & generics. Scott Gottlieb. But prior condition, community rating? Just guarantee it. Tax credits more toward lower end. Medicaid/GOP. David Hoppe & John McLaughlin. Is manufacturing really that important? Tech, services, robots? Mark Mills says yes. Do we need steel protection? Is econ slumping again ? Brian Wesbury. Fed restrain its restraint? Stocks had huge first half. Continue? Profits? Rate outlook? End of FANG? Banks? Europe & overseas? Back-up in yields? Inflation outlook falling? Dollar falling?Trade war? BK Brian Kelly & Mike Ozanian. Optimist Scott Rasmussen believes we can beat elites & regulatory state. Community & culture? New spiritual awakening? Money & Politics A-Team? Trade war over steel? Trump wins on energy!! Taxes nowhere? Meetings & listening? Trump should tweet agenda, not animosities. But he has right to fight back. Deficit neutral tax plan from Newt. Not revenue neutral. Asset sales. Steve Moore, Jimmy P, John McIntyre.

Senate healthcare debate. People sold on lower premiums? Tax credits? Essential benefits? Medicaid? Prior conditions? Rand Paul-Mike Lee-Ron Johnson-Ted Cruz-Dean Heller. GOP is mean & death party! GA-6 a near-death experience for Dems. Trump referendum! What do Dems stand for? Universal child care tax credits? Universal income? Hate biz? Hate fossil fuel? Tax rich? Sanders/Warren/Pelosi. GOP polling on economy? Urgent push for tax cuts? Cancel August recess vaca? Made case for tax cuts & jobs & wages? Stocks: Should Fed pause on rate hikes & balance sheet? Where's inflation? Energy crash? $25 bbl Chevron? Potus giving Chiefs decision-making. But where's end game? Money & Politics: Are Potus & Congress making the sale on tax cuts, health premiums, regs, infrastructure?

Steve Scalise, Nancy Pelosi, & a return to Civility. 3 Easy Pieces: biz tax cut attached to health reconciliation. If not. no summer (recess) vacation. Trump: no charge on Russian collusion. So how can you obstruct something that doesn't exist. Attack Mueller? Tweets? Leave to defense team? Off front pages, better chance to get growth policy done. Jeff Sessions: 100 ambassadors at Mayflower reception! Sr. Armed Service Comm. Trump rolls back Obama Cuba policy. Policy substance or politics? Hurt Cuban entrepreneurs? Travel, transactions, dollars, human rights. Venezuela? Where else Cuban army in Western Hemisphere? Steve Moore on Father's Day. Fed tightening too fast? Softening econ, inflation, rates, commodities.Real wages have gone nowhere. They need tax cuts to raise real rates. Gary Cohn in charge of Fed chair search. What does he believe? Biz expensing cheaper? 25 year window. 3% growth. CT story a national story? Econ polls for Trump?

3 Easy Pieces: GOP must get biz tax cuts attached to health reconciliation to get job done. No summer recess until this happens. Mark Meadows of Freedom Caucus. Make reconciliation a GOP weapon, not an obstacle. Down w/ CBO. Up w/ Mulvaney & Mnuchin. 3% growth budget. Final deal on Repeal & Replace? Trump speeches from Oval Office. Comey hearing didn't live up to its notices. Trump stocks up 2.5%. Trump vindicated on Russia & obstruct justice. Jared Kushner hear about nothing. Only thing Comey didn't leak was Trump not in Russian probe. Trump offers 100% lie detector. Why not let his defense lawyers handle everthing & stay focused on agenda? Stocks too complacent? Political risk? Brexit? Macron? Tax cuts? Why should Fed tighten after June? Inflation down. Commodities & oil. Theresa May Tories clobbered. Brexit? Terror attacks? Squishy policies? Will she be replaced? Minority majority. Money & Politics: Infrastucture. 3 easy pieces. Reconciliation. Overthrow CBO. Drain the swamp.

Adieu to Paris. Trump totally right. Would any other GOP prez have done it? Trump most conservative since Reagan. Media endorsements. Econ growth. Climate change models & causes still unknown. Trump concerned about climate, but bad deal. Nuclear power? G-7: no talk of stable money & supply-side policies. Softer jobs v. falling unemployment.Bad but not terrible.Wage income proxy still around 2% real, 4% nominal. Participation rates falling. Is ADP a better? Inflation slowing. Commodities flat. Fed tightenings? Stocks rallied on Paris pullout. Biz investment a bit stronger. Interest rates? Eurozone inflation back below 1%.j Melissa Francis new book: "Lessons from the Prairie." Markets & Trump. Elon Musk, Lloyd Blankfein. ExxonMobil. GE all wanted Paris. Mick Mulvaney: time for CBO has come and gone. POTUS: 51 for all Senate votes; get rid of filibuster. Attach tax cuts to healthcare. BAT tax dead. Aetna leaving CT. 1853. David Tepper leaves NJ. 12% of revenues.

Dan Clifton & Mike Solon: Trump's new budget: back to Clinton welfare reform; make it pay to work. There are no cuts. Just slower growth. What about tax cuts? Ryan gives up BAT tax? Senate? Detailed plan from WH? Parental leave? Joe Rago & Hadley Heath Manning: Repeal & Replace: when, what, how? Messaging? Risk pools? Premiums? Keep your doctor? GOP promise to fund poor, ill, pre-conditions? Medicaid? Senate: not 50 votes yet. Brian Kelly & Peter Costa: Stocks: domestic profits falling, so are profit margins. Commodities? Bitcoin? Fed rate hikes? Fed shrinks balance sheet: retire reserves. Flat curve? April capex not good. Gen Jack Keane: Trump changes policies in Mid-East. From Iran to Saudis & Israel. Sunni-Arab-Israel NATO? $100b to Saudis. Iran-Hezbolla-Hamas real enemy. What about campaign to destroy ISIS? NATO not taking terrorism seriously. Moore-Pethokoukis-McIntyre: Money Politics: Lawyers stop Trump tweets? Staff shake-up? War Room? Corey Lewandowsky, Dave Bossie, David Urban. How about econ side? Kushner-Russia?

Treasury Sec Steven Mnuchin leads way for pro-growth tax cuts w/ 3% growth paying for them. Reconciliation very flexible? Don't have to use CBO or JTC estimates. Is Admin coming together w/ House/Senate? Timetable? Year end? Banking reform? "Let this go" is not obstruction of justice. Not crime.Mueller's jurisdiction? Narrower than past. Why didn't Comey report memo to DoJ? How long? Advice to Trump? Confusion: what are they investigating? Sr. WH official person of interest. WH leaks! Nut job. Relieved Trump pressure. Stocks: buy the dip because tax cuts are coming? Profits? Econ outlook? Fed? Amazon near 1,000? 250% S&P is bull mkt not just a rally? Dollar-gold-oil? Dr. Rock Positano: "Dinner w/ DiMaggio: Memories of American Hero" Money & Politics: Can US get back to 3% growth? Most econs say no. But capital formation is key. Outlook for health & tax reform? Pence for Prez?

All things Trump-Comey. Damage to him & GOP?Damage to growth agenda? Stone advise him? WH shake-up? Esp communications? New FBI? Trump not under investigation? Healthcare bigger problem for tax cuts than Comey? If no tax cuts & growth spurt, GOP crushed in mid-terms? Ryan: we can walk & chew gum at same time. Cornyn: healthcare before yearend. But why did Ryan bungle reconciliation/regs? Payroll tax cut for workers? No wage deduction for employers? Ted Cruz major player in health compromise. Working w/ McConnell. Same working group for taxes? 3% growth baseline? Biz tax cuts lead to capita deepening, productivity & wages. Why have wages flatlined? US- China trade deal very good. Trumps turns around. Negotiation not war. Day the earth was hacked! Stocks: No gold sky-high or stock plunge on Comey. Retail store collapse? CPI & retail sales slowing. Commodities soft (no inflation).