Podcasts about urbanation

RE/MAX Canada has released its 2024 RE/MAX Canada Condominium Report. In this video interview, Samantha Villiard, Regional Vice President, RE/MAX Canada, discusses the key findings from the report. PRESS RELEASE TORONTO, Oct. 9, 2024 /CNW/ — Despite fears of leaving money on the table, sellers have returned to housing markets across the country in large numbers as the promise of future interest rate cuts draw skittish buyers back into the fray, according to a report released today by RE/MAX Canada. The 2024 RE/MAX Canada Condominium Report examined condominium activity between January – August 2024 in seven major markets across the country including Greater Vancouver, Fraser Valley, City of Calgary, Edmonton, Greater Toronto, Ottawa and Halifax Regional Municipality, and found that condo listings have soared in anticipation of increased demand in the fourth quarter of 2024 and early 2025. Growth in inventory levels was highest in the Fraser Valley (58.7 per cent), followed by Greater Toronto (52.8 per cent), City of Calgary (52.4 per cent), Ottawa (44.5 per cent), Edmonton (17.7 per cent), Halifax Regional Municipality (8.1 per cent) and Vancouver (7.3 per cent). Values have held up surprisingly well given the influx of listings, with gains posted in Calgary (15 per cent), Edmonton (four per cent), Ottawa (2.3 per cent), Vancouver (1.9 per cent), Fraser Valley (1.9 per cent), and Halifax (1.2 per cent). Meanwhile in Greater Toronto, the average price fell two per cent short of year-ago. While sales were robust in Alberta thanks to in-migration from other parts of the country, Edmonton led the way in terms of percentage increase in the number of condos sold, up just close to 37 per cent from year-ago levels, marking the region's best performance in the previous five-year period. This is followed by a more tempered Calgary market, which was up 2.6 per cent over 2023. Remaining markets saw home-buying activity soften in the condominium sector. “High interest rates and stringent lending policies pummeled first-time buyers in recent years, preventing many from reaching their home-ownership goal, despite having to pay record high rental costs that mirrored mortgage payments,” says RE/MAX Canada President Christopher Alexander. “The current lull is the calm before the storm. Come spring of 2025, pent-up demand is expected to fuel stronger market activity, particularly at entry-level price points, as both first-time buyers and investors once again vie for affordable condominium product.” SOURCE: Greater Vancouver REALTORS, Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, Calgary Real Estate Board, REALTORS Association of Edmonton, Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, Ottawa Real Estate Board, Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS. *Apartments Only **Estimated average price for Greater Vancouver Edmonton and Calgary remain firmly entrenched in seller's market territory, while conditions are more balanced in Greater Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Ottawa and Halifax. These markets will likely transition in 2025. Toronto may be the last to emerge from more sluggish conditions, however, Alexander notes that it's a market that has been known to turn quickly. Absorption rates will be a key indicator. Certainly, the market forces of supply and demand always prevail, so some neighbourhoods will fare better than others. Of note in Toronto, prices have likely bottomed out and that's usually evidence that a turnaround is in sight. The current uptick in inventory levels is drawing more traffic to listings, yet buyers remain somewhat skittish across the country. The first two Bank of Canada interest rate cuts did little to entice prospective homebuyers to engage in the market, given the degree of rate increases that took place. However, with further rate reductions expected and policy adjustments to address affordability and ease entry into the market, activity will likely start to climb, particularly among end users. “Even in softer markets, hot pockets tend to emerge,” says Alexander. “In the condominium segment we're seeing a diverse mix among the most in-demand areas, ranging from traditional blue-chip communities to gentrifying up-and-comers, as well as suburban hot spots. Condominiums in choice recreational areas were among the markets posting stronger sales activity—a trend that was also reflected in our single-detached housing report issued earlier this year.” In each market, there are condominium pockets that defied overall trends. In the Greater Toronto Area, condominium sales were up by double digits in the first eight months of 2024 in midtown communities such as Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB)'s Yonge-Eglinton, Humewood-Cedarvale, Forest Hill South (C03) where activity increased 25.3 per cent (114 condo sales in 2024 compared to 91 sales in 2023) and Bedford-Park-Nortown, Lawrence Park, and Forest Hill North (C04) rose 13.3 per cent (128/113). The west end's High Park, South Parkdale, Swansea and Roncesvalles (W01) communities experienced a 15.7-per-cent upswing in units sold (206/178) while neighbouring W02 including High Park North, Junction, Lambton Baby Point, and Runnymede-Bloor West Village climbed 25.2 per cent (189/151). In the east end, the Beaches (E03) reported a 20.3-per-cent increase in sales activity. In Greater Vancouver, an uptick in apartment sales was noted in suburban markets including Port Coquitlam where the number of units sold was up 11 per cent (263 in 2024 compared to 237 in 2023) while more moderate increases were posted in New Westminster (up 0.4 per cent) and recreational communities such as Whistler/Pemberton (up 3.3 per cent). In Fraser Valley, Mission was the sole market to experience an increase in apartment sales, according to the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, up just over 74 per cent year-over-year (68 in 2024 compared to 39 in 2023). Strong sales were also reported in Calgary neighbourhoods such as Eau Claire (up 59.1 per cent) and Downtown East Village (up 17.3 per cent). Meanwhile, RE/MAX found that investor activity has stalled in most markets. The slowdown has been most notable in Greater Toronto, where up to 30 per cent of investors have experienced negative cashflow on rental properties as mortgage carrying costs climbed, according to analytics by Urbanation and CIBC Economics. Investor confidence is expected to recover in the months ahead, as interest rates fall and return on investment (ROI) improves. Edmonton bucked the trend in investor pullback. With supply outpacing demand in Canada's most affordable condominium market, savvy investors in Edmonton have been actively revitalizing tired condominium stock and subsequently renting it out for top dollar. Affordability has been a significant draw for out-of-province investors, particularly those from Ontario and British Columbia who are seeking opportunities further afield to bulk up their portfolios. Out-of-province developers and builders have been similarly motivated by Edmonton's lower development costs and lack of red tape. Halifax to a lesser extent has drawn investor interest, with affordability, low vacancy rates and upward pressure on rents being the primary factor behind the city's appeal. “In many markets, end users are in the driver's seat right now,” explains Alexander. “While investors are an important part of the purchaser pool, this point in time is a unique opportunity for aspiring condominium buyers who, for a short window of time, will likely see less competition from investors and a better supply of product. This is especially true in Toronto and Vancouver, where the impact of monetary policy has hit investor profit margins to a greater extent despite high rent and low vacancy rates. With values set to rise, this is arguably the most favourable climate condominiums buyers have seen in recent years.” In the longer term, immigration to Canada and in-migration/out-migration from one province or region to another will continue to prop up demand for condominiums in the years to come, as condominiums now represent both a first step to home ownership, and increasingly—in Canada's most expensive markets—the middle step as well. Although population numbers are forecast to contract in the short-term, overall growth will resume, with Statistics Canada's projections falling just short of 44 million to as high as 49 million by 2035. Increasing density and urbanization, along with continued population growth is expected to support the long-term outlook for condominium activity nationally. Canada's urban population has been climbing consistently since the post-WWII period with an estimated 80 per cent of Canadians residing in urban centres. Downtowns are growing fast, and more rapidly than ever before. “The housing mix is evolving very quickly as a result of densification and urbanization. Condominiums now represent the heart of our largest cities, and it is inevitable that further development will see condos become the driving force accounting for the lion's share of sales in years to come,” says Alexander. “It's a physical and cultural shift that Canadians are not only adjusting to but are embracing, as younger generations redefine urban neighbourhoods, sparking demand for vibrant and robust amenities, infusing new life in Canada's urban cores in the process.” Market by market overview Greater Vancouver Area and Fraser Valley Softer market conditions prevailed throughout much of the year in the Greater Vancouver Area and the Fraser Valley, with fewer sales of condominium apartments occurring across the board in 2024. In Greater Vancouver, year-to-date apartment sales between January and August were well off year-ago levels at 9,248, according to Greater Vancouver Realtors, down just over eight per cent from the same period in 2023. Neighbouring Fraser Valley reported just 3,130 apartments changing hands between January and August of this year, down 8.5 per cent from year-ago levels. Values continue to climb in the Fraser Valley, where the overall average price year-to-date for apartment units is up two per cent year-over year ($559,215/$548,658) according to the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, while Vancouver has edged up two per cent to $823,550 in 2024, compared to $807,085 in 2023. Home-buying activity started with a bang in both Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley this year as the anticipation of interest rate cuts in April fuelled momentum. When it became evident that interest rates would hold steady until June or July, the wind was sucked from the market sails. Several areas in Greater Vancouver have reported an increase in year-to-date sales, including Port Coquitlam (263 sales in 2024 compared to 237 sales in 2023), New Westminster (546/544) and Whistler/Pemberton (186/180). Despite several interest rate cuts to date, however, buyers are still skittish, holding off on purchasing their home until rates decline further, while sellers are reluctant to list their homes for fear of leaving money on the table. The catch-22 situation has been frustrating for buyers and sellers alike, but buyers who pull the trigger now on a purchase, may ultimately find themselves in a better position come spring. Selection is good with more than 2,100 apartments currently listed for sale in Greater Vancouver and another 2,080 available in the Fraser Valley, and buyers have the luxury of time to make thoughtful decisions. Come spring, the number of purchasers in the market is expected to increase, placing upward pressure on values. Some of the most popular areas for condominium sales in Greater Vancouver in recent years are in East Vancouver. Its culturally diverse and artsy neighbourhoods, top-shelf restaurants and cafés, including Michelin Star Published on Main, as well as craft breweries and entertainment, have served to draw a younger demographic. False Creek, Mt. Pleasant, Kits Point, Fairview, Pt. Grey and Dunbar offer condo buyers a spectacular view of North Vancouver and the Burrard Inlet and easy access to the Skytrain, bike and walking paths, parks and recreational facilities. A one-bedroom apartment in an established building in Mt. Pleasant can be purchased for approximately $650,000, while newer product can be picked up for as low as $490,000 to a high of $928,000. Prices in nearby Kits trend higher with a one-bedroom hovering at $715,000 on average. The lion's share of apartment sales in both Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley are occurring under the $800,000 price point for a one-bedroom apartment, while a two-bedroom priced below $1 million will generate solid interest. The Valley tends to offer greater selection under the $800,000 price point, and typically has more appeal with first-time buyers. As demand rises in tandem with the Bank of Canada's interest rate cuts, absorption levels should increase. Spring of 2025 is expected to be characterized by strong demand and dwindling supply, with modest increases in average price. Strong economic fundamentals going into the new year will support an increase in home-buying activity, with lower interest rates and longer amortization periods helping to draw first time buyers into the market once again. City of Calgary While interprovincial migration has slowed from year-ago levels, overall net migration to Alberta continues to climb, sparking demand in the province's affordable real estate market. In Calgary, the sale of condominium apartments experienced a modest increase of almost three per cent in the first eight months of the year, with 5,722 units changing hands compared to 5,577 sales during the same period in 2023. Year-to-date average price has climbed 15 per cent year-over-year to just over $347,000, up from $301,868 in 2023, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board. Growth has been noted in virtually all areas of the city, with the greatest percentage increases in sales occurring in Eau Claire (59.1 per cent), Killarney/Glengary (46.7 per cent), Garrison Woods (64.7 per cent) Garrison Green (23.5 per cent) and Currie Barracks (18.2 per cent). Most condominium apartment sales are occurring in the downtown district, where walkability plays a major role. Younger buyers tend to gravitate toward the core area, which allows residents to walk to work and amenities. Not surprisingly, the highest number of sales occurred in the Downtown East Village, where 129 units have been sold year to date, up from 110 sales one year ago. Significant gains have also been posted in average price, with Saddle Ridge experiencing an increase in values close to 36 per cent, rising to $317,997 in 2024, followed by Hillhurst, which increased 21.4 per cent to $423,873. Out of the 12 key Calgary markets analyzed by RE/MAX, seven posted double-digit gains in values. Seller's market conditions prevailed in the city throughout much of the year, with strong demand characterizing home-buying activity. Luxury apartment sales are on the upswing, with 49 apartments selling over $1 million so far this year compared to 41 during the same period in 2023, an increase of 19.5 per cent. Empty nesters, retirees and oil executives are behind the push for high-end units, most of which are in the downtown core offering spectacular views of both the Bow River and the mountains. First-time buyers are most active in the suburbs, where they can get the best bang for their buck in communities such as McKenzie Town, Panorama Hills and Saddle Ridge. Apartment values in these areas average around $300,000, making them an attractive first step to home ownership, but also an affordable entry point for small investors. After a heated spring market, inventory levels have improved substantially, with a relatively good selection of condominiums available for sale. Inventory levels hover at close to 1,500, up substantially from year-ago levels, with the sales-to-new listings ratio now sitting at 60 per cent. With interest rates trending lower, more buyers and a greater number of investors are expected to enter the market in the year ahead. Rather than waiting for next spring, when rates are lower but prices are higher, buyers may want to consider making a purchase today when supply is healthy and market conditions are less heated. Buying with a two-month closing could also capture the expected Bank of Canada rate cuts in October and December. Edmonton Home-buying activity in the Edmonton's apartment segment exploded in 2024, with year-to-date sales almost 37 per cent ahead of year-ago levels. Affordability continues to be the catalyst for activity, with 3,351 units changing hands, up from 2,452 sales one year ago, making 2024 the best year for apartment sales in the past five years (for the January to August period). The average price of an apartment in Edmonton year-to-date is $200,951, up four per cent over year-ago levels, according to the Realtors Association of Edmonton, making Edmonton the lowest-priced major market in the country. Immigration and in-migration have seriously contributed to the uptick in sales, with Edmonton reporting record population growth in 2023. Statistics Canada data for Alberta in the second quarter of 2024 show net interprovincial migration continues unabated, up almost 11 per cent, with 9,654 new residents coming from other Canadian centres – the majority hailing from Ontario and British Columbia. During the same period, immigration numbers remained relatively constant at 32,000. The sales-to-new-listings ratio now sits at 65 per cent—clear seller's territory. Many condominiums are now moving in multiple offers. The influx of newcomers has buoyed the city, with growth evident in neighbourhoods from the downtown core to the suburbs. Most are buying up properties, as opposed to renting, as they may have done in years past. Home ownership is more-easily attainable in Edmonton relative to other major cities, with the cost of a condominium apartment as low as $100,000. Newer condominiums are available for less than $300,000. Condominiums vary in shape and size in Edmonton, with row house condominiums featuring a backyard and a garage being a major attraction. Investors have also entered the picture, buying up older, tired condo units, fixing them up and renting them out for top dollar. Lower development costs have also prompted an influx of out-of-province builders and developers who can quickly construct 20- and 30-floor high-rise towers or townhouse developments that fill the missing middle. Well-known builders in Ontario and British Columbia are moving into the Alberta market because of the lack of red tape. Several condominium buildings are currently underway, with many more in various stages of planning. With demand currently outpacing supply, the quicker these units come on stream, the better. By 2027, more balance market conditions are expected. First-time buyers are also exceptionally active in the condo segment. Affordable price points and a notable lack of provincial and municipal land transfer taxes allow younger buyers to easily enter the market. Purchasers who are coming from other provinces quickly realize how far their dollar stretches in Edmonton, as the low cost of housing allows for more disposable income. Homeowners can pay their mortgage, go out for weekly dinners, and have an annual vacation, without too much stress. Amenity-rich Oliver remains one of the most coveted hubs in Edmonton. West of 109th St. and the downtown core, the diverse neighbourhood offers a mix of new condominium development including walk ups, mid- and high-rise buildings, and peripheral spin off including retail shops, restaurants and entertainment, all within a short walk to the River Valley. Demand is especially high thanks to the walkability of the area and close proximity to the ICE District. Old Strathcona and Whyte Avenue are also sought-after. The trendy arts and cultural area boasts a mix of funky, bohemian-style and historic buildings, galleries, boutiques, shops, restaurants, cafes and a vibrant nightlife. Edmonton's housing market continues to be driven from the bottom up. Renters move into condo apartments, who move into condo row housing, who move into townhomes and eventually make their way to single-detached homes. The cycle is expected to be supported by a strong local and provincial economy heading into 2025 as monetary policy continues to ease, households and businesses increase spending, and oil prices climb. Greater Toronto Area Demand for condominium apartments and townhomes in the Greater Toronto Area has softened year-over-year, with sales off 2023 levels by eight per cent. Close to 16,800 condo apartments and townhomes changed hands between January and August 2024, down from 18,263 sales during the same period in 2023. Overall condominium values fell almost two per cent, with average price now sitting at $732,648 for apartments and townhomes, down from $747,039 during the same period in 2023, according to data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). Two buyer pools are impacting the condominium market at present—investors and end users. The investment segment has stalled, as a growing number of condominium investors find themselves unable to cover their carrying costs when closing, despite a relatively strong rental market. In a July 2024 report, Urbanation and CIBC Economics examined the distribution of cash flow by dollar amount and found that 30 per cent of investors of new condos completed in 2023 were cash flow negative by $1,000 or more. End users, especially those seeking larger one-bedroom-plus-den or two-bedroom units, are active in the condo market, particularly in the Forest Hill South, Yonge-Eglinton, Humewood-Cedarvale (C03) and Bedford-Nortown, Lawrence Park and Forest Hill North (C04). Several new buildings in these areas have prompted a 25.3- and 13.3-per-cent uptick in sales activity respectively, while average price has edged slightly higher in Forest Hill South, Yonge-Eglinton, Humewood-Cedarvale ($871,839 in 2024 compared to $863,681 in 2023). Double-digit increases in year-to-date condominium sales in the 416 were also reported in west end communities such as High Park, South Parkdale, Swansea and Roncesvalles (up 15.7 per cent), High Park North, Junction, Lambton- Baby Point, and Runnymede-Bloor West Village (up 25.2 per cent); and in the east, the Beaches area (up 20.3 per cent). In the 905-area code, an uptick in condo activity was noted in Halton Hills (up 21.6 per cent) and Milton (up 13.3 per cent); and in Newmarket (up 30.6 per cent). Close to 43 per cent of TRREB districts in the 416-area code reported modest gains in average price between January and August of 2024, led by the Annex, Yonge-St. Clair (C02), with a close to 14-per-cent increase in values. One in four markets in the 905-area code have posted gains in condominium values year-over-year. Inventory levels continued to climb throughout much of the year as available resale units were joined by an influx of new completions on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Selection has vastly improved over year-ago levels, with over 8,300 apartment units actively listed for sale at the end of August, compared to 5,455 units during the same period in 2023. Almost 1,700 active listings were reported in the condo townhouse segment, up 53 per cent from the 1,110 posted in 2023. Pre-construction condominium assignments are still occurring as investors look to sell their units before registration, but the pace has subsided since 2023. New completions have slowed in the second quarter of this year in Greater Toronto–Hamilton in large part due to the lack of investor interest, with starts off last year's level by 67 per cent, according to Urbanation. Repercussions in the short-term will be negligible but the longer-term impact is expected to be substantial. Twenty-thousand new condominium units are planned for the GTA in 2025; 30,000 in 2026; and 40,000 in 2027. In 2028, the figure falls to 5,000 units. At that point, construction will heat up, but not fast enough to meet demand. With a six-month supply of condominiums currently available for sale, the GTA market is heading into clear buyers' territory. With values at or near bottom and Bank of Canada overnight rates trending lower, the fall market may represent the perfect storm for first-time buyers. As rates drop, more buyers are expected to enter the market in the months ahead. As absorption rates increase, the current oversupply will be diminished and demand will take flight, placing upward pressure on average prices once again. Ottawa Although downsizing empty nesters, retirees and first-time homebuyers fuelled steady demand for condominium apartments and walk-ups in Ottawa in 2024, the number of units sold between January and August fell short of year-ago levels. The Ottawa Real Estate Board reported just over 1,400 condominium apartments changed hands year to date, down less than one per cent from 2023. Meanwhile, values rose 2.3 per cent over last year, with average price rising to $447,042. Affordability remains a major concern in Ottawa, despite changes to monetary policy in recent months. First-time buyers find themselves locked out of the freehold market, given high interest rates and stringent lending policies. Fixed mortgage rates have dropped in recent weeks and are expected to continue to decline for the remainder of the year and into 2025, but potential buyers are still wary. Inventory levels have increased year over year as a result, with active listings in August hovering at 636, approximately 44.5 per cent ahead of 2023. First-time buyers who choose to move forward with a purchase are typically looking for condominiums with low monthly maintenance fees and a parking spot priced from $500,000 to $550,000. The downtown core to Centretown and Dows Lake are popular destinations, given the proximity to the workplace, shops and restaurants. Those seeking to spend less could find a lower-priced unit in an older building for $350,000 but monthly condominium fees would be significantly higher. Suburban condominiums in areas such as Kanata, Barrhaven, and Orleans are also an option, priced from $375,000 to $400,000. Tighter inventory levels exist in the luxury segment, where fewer condominium apartments are available over the $850,000 price point. Empty nesters and retirees are responsible for the lion's share of activity in the top end of Ottawa's condominium market. Westboro, the Golden Triangle, and Centretown, as well as neighbourhoods undergoing gentrification including The Glebe, Lansdowne, and Old Ottawa East, are most sought-after by buyers, many of whom are downsizing. Walkability is a major factor in these communities, with condominium apartments within walking distance to top restaurants and cafes, unique shops and picturesque walking paths. As consumer confidence grows with each interest rate cut, more and more buyers should return to the market. Fourth-quarter sales are expected to be comparable to year-ago levels, but the outlook for spring of 2025 appears to be bright. Pent-up demand is building and those first into the market will reap the rewards. Halifax Regional Municipality After three consecutive interest rate cuts and the prospect of two more by year end, optimism is finally building in the Halifax Regional Municipality housing market. Average condominium values have edged ahead of year-ago levels in the first eight months of the year, now sitting at $484,491, up one per cent over the $479,558 reported during the same period in 2023. Condominium sales, however, declined year over year, with 510 properties changing hands between January and August, down close to seven per cent from last year's levels, according to data compiled by the Nova Scotia Association of Realtors. The trepidation that existed earlier in the year is subsiding and confidence is starting to grow as inflation is curtailed. The most competitive segment of the overall housing market remains under $600,000 in the Halifax area, with first-time buyers most active at this price point. Entry-level condominiums priced between $300,000 and $400,000 are most sought after, while semi-detached and townhomes tend to be the preferred choice over $400,000. At the top end of the market, condominium sales over $750,000 have experienced a modest uptick, with 35 properties sold so far this year, compared to 34 during the same period one year ago. Year-to-date average price in the top end of the market has softened from year-ago levels, sitting at almost $940,000, down from $957,300 during the same timeframe in 2023. Young professionals and retirees are largely behind the push for higher-end condominiums, with most sales occurring within the city's downtown core. Downward pressure on interest rates has prompted more sellers to list their condos in recent weeks, but there are no liquidation sales occurring. Inventory levels are up just over eight per cent from 2023. The vast majority of condominium apartments are found on the peninsula's northeast quadrant, central and downtown cores. Some developments are situated on the waterfront in Dartmouth (near the ferry) and in Bedford, but supply is less plentiful in these areas. Investors are also active in Halifax's condominium market with an eye toward rental properties. Multi-unit housing remains exceptionally popular, with most investors interested in buildings with eight to 10 units. Four-plexes and duplexes are also an option, given the city's low vacancy rates and upward pressure on rent. In-migration and immigration have continued to play a role in the city's growth, although the influx of newcomers has abated somewhat from peak levels. Positive international immigration, coupled with interprovincial migration, contributed to a net increase of 6,000 people in the second quarter of 2024. Major improvements are planned for the Dartmouth waterfront that will make it more pedestrian friendly in the coming years, including public spaces and cruise ships. The redevelopment hopes to mirror the success of Halifax's vibrant waterfront area that continues to attract both visitors and residents to the area's restaurants and cafes, outdoor kiosks, retail shops, playgrounds, museums, and the ferry terminal.  With continuous investment and a bold new vision for the municipality, Halifax is expected to thrive in the years ahead, given the city's affordable real estate and spectacular topography. About the RE/MAX Network  As one of the leading global real estate franchisors, RE/MAX, LLC is a subsidiary of RE/MAX Holdings (NYSE: RMAX) with more than 140,000 agents in almost 9,000 offices with a presence in more than 110 countries and territories. RE/MAX Canada refers to RE/MAX of Western Canada (1998), LLC and RE/MAX Ontario–Atlantic Canada, Inc., and RE/MAX Promotions, Inc., each of which are affiliates of RE/MAX, LLC. Nobody in the world sells more real estate than RE/MAX, as measured by residential transaction sides. RE/MAX was founded in 1973 by Dave and Gail Liniger, with an innovative, entrepreneurial culture affording its agents and franchisees the flexibility to operate their businesses with great independence. RE/MAX agents have lived, worked and served in their local communities for decades, raising millions of dollars every year for Children's Miracle Network Hospitals® and other charities. To learn more about RE/MAX, to search home listings or find an agent in your community, please visit remax.ca. For the latest news from RE/MAX Canada, please visit blog.remax.ca. Mario Toneguzzi Mario Toneguzzi is Managing Editor of Canada's Podcast. He has more than 40 years of experience as a daily newspaper writer, columnist, and editor. He was named in 2021 as one of the Top 10 Business Journalists in the World by PR News – the only Canadian to make the list. He was also named by RETHINK to its global list of Top Retail Experts 2024. About Us Canada's Podcast is the number one podcast in Canada for entrepreneurs and business owners. Established in 2016, the podcast network has interviewed over 600 Canadian entrepreneurs from coast-to-coast. With hosts in each province, entrepreneurs have a local and national format to tell their stories, talk about their journey and provide inspiration for anyone starting their entrepreneurial journey and well- established founders. The commitment to a grass roots approach has built a loyal audience on all our social channels and YouTube – 500,000+ lifetime YouTube views, 200,000 + audio downloads, 35,000 + average monthly social impressions, 10,000 + engaged social followers and 35,000 newsletter subscribers. Canada's Podcast is proud to provide a local, national and international presence for Canadian entrepreneurs to build their brand and tell their story #business #CanadasNumberOnePodcastforEntrepreneurs #Condo Market #Condos #entrepreneurs #entrepreneurship #Homes #Housing #RealEstate #small business

The condo market, which is clearly in recessionary territory, has conditions deteriorating to levels not seen in decades. What makes the situation more challenging is the role of investors in the presale market, which have made up to 70% or more of buyers. Challenges for preconstruction and resale condos in certain Canadian markets. Condos are a major challenge in Canada's real estate and economy. Comparison of condo market with detached housing market. Evaluation of investment types: preconstruction, resale condos, and detached homes. Insights from a CIBC and Urbanation report discussed. Attend Our Event On Multiplexes  Sign Up For The Next Webinar Realist  Join the best community in Canadian Real Estate realist.ca Attend a Meetups  Meetups Get a Pre Approval G & H Mortgage Group Get Financing with Landbank LandBank Nick  Instagram.com/mybuddynick tiktok.com/@mybuddynick twitter.com/mybuddynick89 Dan twitter.com/daniel_foch  instagram.com/danielfoch tiktok.com/@danielfochSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode, we take a look back at 2023 and the rental trends reported by Rentsync and Rentals.ca. The Canadian housing market seems to be setting and breaking records each day, but does the good outweigh the bad? To help us make sense of Rentals.ca and Urbanations's report, we are joined by three of its influential contributors; the Product Manager of Data Services at Rentsync, David Aizikov, the CEO of Rentsync, Max Steinman, and the President of Urbanation, Shaun Hildebrand. The trio is here to walk us through their findings, which include the steady of flow new rental trends that have played out throughout the year, supply and demand numbers, the undeniable national crisis relating to the cost of living, and the possible impact that reduced housing may have once it enters the market from 2024 onwards. We also learn about the hidden opportunities of affordability, the fears that most prospective homeowners share, the communal relief that rent and housing is top-of-mind for mainstream media and policy-makers, and what renters and landlords can expect from the market in 2024 and beyond.    Key Points From This Episode:   Introducing three key compilers of Rentals.ca and Urbanations's annual rental report, David Aizikov, Max Steinman, and Shaun Hildebrand. Assessing the consistency of new rental trends that we've witnessed throughout the year. Supply and demand numbers, and the factors that affect them. The cost-of-living crisis.  Exploring the possible impact of reduced housing's addition to the supply in 2024.  Whether the softening of demand and leveling of rents is closer than we may realize.  Community upliftment and other opportunities of affordability. The fears of a prospective homeowner. What it means for housing and rent to be at the top of policy-making agendas.  How landlords and renters ended up understanding the other's perspective. What renters and landlords can expect from the market in 2024 and beyond.  Listen to the episode wherever you get your podcasts, Apple, Google Podcasts, or Spotify.

What are the causes, consequences, and potential solutions to this ever-increasing rent in the Greater Toronto Area?Condo and apartment research firm Urbanation just announced that purpose-built rentals have hit a new record, surpassing an average rental price of $3,002 per month in Q1-2023. So what does this mean for landlords, if the tenant population cannot afford to live here any more? What can we do to mitigate this risk?Watch this podcast on YouTube:https://youtu.be/MHNKcLM0x2cSchedule a 15-minute Zoom call with Ken: https://www.broadviewavenue.ca/appointments▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬Subscribe now to keep updated for more information.If you want to chat with us, do the following:1. Send an email at podcast@broadviewavenue.ca; or2. Send a direct message on my Instagram account below; or3. Book an appointment for a 15-minute video chat using the link on our website.If you're not ready to reach out and just want to follow for more, find us online:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/kennethyimhomes?sub_confirmation=1 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/kennethyimhomesTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@kennethyimhomesLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kennethyimhomesFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/BroadviewAvenueWeb: http://www.broadviewavenue.ca▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬

Today we are welcoming back Shaun Hildebrand, President of Urbanation, for his fourth appearance on the podcast. His last time on the show was in June 2020, which was a starkly different time for real estate compared with where we are now in early 2023. After getting an update on Urbanation's expansion, Shaun explains what... The post GTA Condo & Rental in 2023 with Shaun Hildebrand of Urbanation appeared first on Commercial Real Estate Podcast.

“The industry can expect to have real-time analytics and real-time insights as to what's happening in the rental market across the country. And to me, this was a massive knowledge gap in the industry.” — Shaun Hildebrand Access to real-time rental market data has always been a challenge in Canada. Luckily, today's guests are here to share a solution to this problem! We are joined by Max Steinman (CEO at Rentsync) and Shaun Hildebrand (President at Urbanation) to discuss how they are joining forces to develop the most comprehensive market data platform for the rental housing industry in Canada. This exciting partnership will bring together Rentsync's wealth of multifamily rental listings data, Urbanation's industry-leading data platform for new purpose-built rental projects and condominium rentals, and decades of analytical expertise. Tuning in, you'll find out how this new venture will create broader knowledge and expertise regarding what is happening in the rental market across the country. You'll also gain some insight into rental demand in Canada as we unpack the unprecedented rent surges we saw in 2022, and Shaun and Max share their advice for how property owners, developers, and marketers can prepare for a short-term pause in the rental market as we head into 2023, plus so much more! To learn more about unlocking intelligent real estate data across Canada, don't miss today's episode of Sync or Swim! Key points from this episode: A look at Urbanation and their focus on the high-rise apartment market. Announcing the exciting new partnership between Rentsync and Urbanation! The kinds of reporting that clients and subscribers can expect from this partnership. An overview of the timeline for the rollout of this partnership and the new platform. Shaun shares his high-level take on the 2022 leasing season. Reflecting on the sustainability of these unprecedented rent increases. Factors that are contributing to rent increases across Canada. Why new construction of purpose-built rentals has dropped off. The impact of a recession on the rental market and what to expect going into 2023. How marketers can prepare for a short-term pause in the rental market. Economic advice for property owners and developers over the next few months. Where to access the November Rent Report and what you can learn from it. If you liked this episode, be sure to rate, review, and subscribe or follow Sync or Swim wherever you get your podcasts, Apple, Google Podcasts, or Spotify.

Shaun Leads the Team at Urbanation, Armed with a Background as an Economist and 15 ears of Experience in Residential Market Analysis. Shaun is a Thought Leader in the Residential Development Industry and his Unique Perspectives on the Market Guide Urbanation's insights, Analytics and Research Strategy   In this episode we talked about:    • Urbanation Background  • Shaun's Bio and First Steps in Real Estate  • Overview of Toronto Condo Market  • Shaun's Thoughts on Purpose-built Rental Housing  • Rent Control  • The Size of Toronto Condo Market  • The Outlook on How Immigration Will Impact the Real Estate  • Inflation and Asset Growth  • Mentorship, Resources and Lessons Learned  • Book or Podcast   Useful links: https://urbanation.ca Transcription: Jesse (0s): Welcome to the working capital real estate podcast. My name is Jesper galley. And on this show, we discuss all things real estate with investors and experts in a variety of industries that impact real estate. Whether you're looking at your first investment or raising your first fund, join me and let's build that portfolio one square foot at a time. All right, ladies and gentlemen, my name's Jennifer Gallan. You're listening to working capital the real estate podcast. My guest today is Shawn Hildebrand. Sean is the president of urban nation, Inc.   For those that don't know, urban nation was founded in 1981 by Eve Lewis, an industry leader and visionary. That's an emerging market opportunity for high rise condominiums in Toronto at a time when they were considered a niche product, how's it going? I'm doing great, Sean. We we're just chatting a little bit before the podcast and wanted to have you on for a little while for those that don't know urban nation. Maybe you could give a little bit of a background as to what you guys do and kind of how that company has evolved over the years with your involvement.   Shaun (1m 7s): Sure. Yeah. So as you mentioned, Urbanation was founded basically 40 years ago and began actually from Eve Louis's graduate thesis at the time. So condos were sort of a new product in the housing market in Toronto, and, you know, she studied the market, collected all the data and realized that there was a business at that could be formulated out of this research. And over the years, Urbanation continued to collect on a quarterly basis, new condominium apartment market activity by serving directly the developers that were active in the market, putting out our quarterly condo market survey publication.   And eventually over time, as, as technology evolves, moving the data and reporting into an online format. I joined the company almost nine years ago in early 2013. So at that point we were, we were just sort of really launching the full database. So that was kind of my first initiative as I, as I began to take over leadership in the company. And over the years, we've, we've continued to expand that database and the technology behind it.   We've also sort of branched out our research into more than just condominiums, but now tracking what's happening in the purpose-built rental markets. That's been a big focal point for the company over the last number of years is tracking all of the new rentals that are coming into the market, surveying them in the same sort of way that you would survey a new condo project by going directly to the building owner or property manager and collecting data such as vacancy rates and rents and, and producing a separate quarterly reports in conjunction to our previous reporting that was being done on the secondary condo rental market.   So individual condo investors, which has been sort of the biggest supplier of new rentals in Toronto for a number of years, but now we're starting to see, you know, traditional rental development happening. So it's, it's really sort of allowing us to have a more holistic lens of what's happening across real estate development. We've also expanded into tracking the land sale market as well. So through, through research that we do leveraging our relationship with CareNet and using land registry, we track all of the land acquisitions that are occurring.   So again, allows us to, to further expand our reach into the real estate market research area and, and track projects from, from a very early stage. So we, we offer this information for a subscription module. So our, our, our subscribers are very diverse. They include obviously all of the top developers in the region, but also financial institutions, private equity, other types of lenders and suppliers, government organizations, appraisers brokers, and, you know, what, what really drew me to Urbanation when I joined the company, was that it was, it was more than just a data, right?   So previously before I joined the company, I was working as the lead analyst at Canada mortgage housing corporation. And my job was to forecast the Toronto housing markets and provide a market intelligence to senior government officials. And I leveraged Urbanation to a great degree and trying to really try to figure out what was happening in the condo market at the time. This is sort of in the, in the mid to early two thousands. And in the later two thousands, there was a big focus on whether or not we were, we were over supplying the market with, with condos and having ordination was an invaluable resource to be able to really dig into the data and understand what was happening.   And, you know, w what drew me to company was that, again, it was more than just, you know, supplying the industry with levers. It was, it was really kind of putting meaning behind that, that, that, that, that research, and to be able to analyze the data and provide market intelligence that provides guidance and insights as to what's actually going on, you know, across the market. So that's something that we continue to expand. You know, we, we, when we, when we, when we enter into a new area of research, it's not just about supplying the data and the stats it's, you know, what's actually behind these numbers, what's driving them.   And from that, we've, we've really started to evolve our advisory practice. So we, we, we produce custom market feasibility reports for individual sites that developers are looking to bring to market. And over the years that that's become a very large part of our business as well. So we're continuing to expand on all fronts. We're looking into new markets in terms of our geographic expansion. We've been extremely active in sort of the tertiary markets that surrounded GTA within Ontario and very meaningfully within Ottawa on what's been a big part of our expansion recently, as we've been doing a lot of market work in that area and collecting data on every new rental developments.   And we've pumped a project that's active in the market there.   Jesse (6m 27s): Yeah. Fair enough. On the point of CMHC for those that don't know, I guess the equivalent for the states would be a Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, just kind of an institutional crown corporation, is that I think that's correct. In terms of just on that note, was your background always in real estate? Was it always kind of in the economics of real estate world, or did you come at it from a different angle?   Shaun (6m 51s): Well, I went to school to study economics, both undergraduate and graduate degrees. And when I was doing my master's, you know, I found it to be very theoretical as a lot of graduate programs are. And, you know, I had a hard time really understanding what I was, what I was being taught and, and trying to think about it in practical terms. And, you know, at the time there weren't any, at least within my program, real estate economics classes, but I was really interested in the housing market, which was, which was kind of starting to take off at that point in time.   And I felt that when I applied the economic concepts that I was being taught to, to real estate, it all kind of started to make sense because, you know, all of the, the sort of macro economic theories could be put into practice when you're understanding what's happening in the housing market. And eventually I did my, my, my graduate thesis on the housing market. And from there really started to focus my, my, my career aspirations in, in real estate economics.   And initially I was, I was working in Ottawa for the bank of Canada and the federal government for a little bit of time, and then eventually moved to private consulting in Toronto, and then to see an HC. And then now over the past homeless nine years with termination.   Jesse (8m 16s): Yeah, it's interesting. We've had people on the show before and I call it the Paul Samuelson ization of economics, where you start getting more mathematical and more statistical where you're kind of turning out economy nutritions rather than, than policy a policy makers are employees at companies. I'm curious, you've got a great graph or kind of timeline for anybody that's interested. You can go to urban nation.ca where it basically from the inception of the company to today. So, you know, in 1981 or urban nation launches to today, the global pandemic, but on the way you see such a, such an interesting story of, of condo sales and development in Toronto, for those that don't understand, or, or those that aren't aware of the condo market in Toronto or, or Ontario for that matter, how would you describe it to somebody, you know, looking in from say, another state or another country where their world is housing and purpose-built and condos are kind of a, you know, a smaller piece of, of the market.   Whereas for us, it's, it's all we know in, in large part.   Shaun (9m 24s): Yeah, very, very much. So Toronto is quite unique in the context of north America, where the bulk of, of high-rise development here locally happens within the condo sector, as opposed to the purpose built rental market. In fact, as of the third quarter, we had six times as many condoms, either construction as we did rental apartments, which is usually the inverse when you go to another large market in United States. So the condo market has worked very well in Toronto through, through pre-sales and investment activity.   So the typical course is that a, any project will launch offer their units through the broker channel who typically access investor purchasers, who, who buy very quickly and early on. And that helps fund the construction to be able to proceed with the development and investors have been extremely active in the Toronto market over the last 20 years and continue to be so in today's market, typically we'll sell 20 to 25,000 new condo units.   And then we're going to get in here this year will probably be somewhere around 27, 20 8,000. So it's going to be probably the second highest year on record behind 2017 for new condo sales. And, you know, it's, it's, it's one where we're seeing the market mature. So where as in the past condo development in pre-sale activity was very much focused within the central core of the city. It is now expanding out geographically across the region.   So the greater Toronto area includes the city of Toronto and the sofa in the suburbs that surround it. And for the first time this year, we're actually seeing more new condo sales happening in what we call a nine oh five region of the GTA, the suburban areas of the GTA, then actually within the city proper. And I think this really speaks to the affordability and, and, and, and, and sort of the history of the call, the market and why it's caught fire in that. You know, we, we don't build very many single family homes anymore in the GTA for a number of reasons, which we could probably have a whole podcast on its own, but basically condos are the dominant form of new housing developments in the region.   And as this has happened, single family housing has become scarce even more so during the pandemic, as a lot of buyers look for more space, backyards, larger properties, they weren't commuting as much. So they felt more comfortable buying my larger homes outside of, outside of the core. And the price for single family housing was just skyrocket. And this is something that's unique to Toronto. It's obviously happening across Canada and a lot of markets in the U S as well, but it's created an abnormal divergence between price appreciation and the low rise market and price appreciation in the high rise market.   And it's created this very large gap in pricing between a house and an apartment. One that is, is very, very abnormal. So if you look at the average price of a house right now, it's $1.5 million in the GTA, look at the average price of a condo it's about $700,000 or so. So that, that gap over around 800 grand has never been as large as, as it is right now. And in fact, it's increased by about 50% since the pandemic. So affordability has become an even bigger issue after the pandemic.   And a lot of the trends that I would say that they were seeing pre pandemic have only just accelerated as a result of COVID-19. So, you know, the condo market was harder initially because, you know, people were adverse to buying high rise units located in the core because of, you know, issues around the pandemic. And in the fact that a lot of businesses were closed downtown, you didn't necessarily need to be downtown. And there was probably some health concerns as well with, you know, being a very densely populated areas, but the kind of market has staged and remarkable turnaround.   And now you're starting to see, you know, double digit inflation once again, but that gap still persists. And I think it's one of those things that continues to drive demand for condos, whether they be downtown or whether they be in the suburban markets. And it's been, it's been fascinating to see, you know, how quickly a condo project can pre-sell, whether it's, you know, located at center ice downtown, or whether it's located in a suburb, you know, a hundred kilometers from, from, from the city core in almost every case, the project will sell out extremely quickly and you'll still get quite a lot of investor purchasers, even if the, the development isn't located downtown.   So I think this speaks to how the market has evolved over time and has continued to consistently produce sales volumes that, you know, are meeting or exceeding 20,000 units a year, which is, which is remarkable for us. But, you know, w in the context of the overall housing market, probably not enough to satisfy, you know, population growth is coming into the region.   Jesse (14m 32s): So in terms of the, the market itself, you, you mentioned that we're starting to build more purpose-built purpose-built apartment buildings, and you mentioned Ottawa as you know, one of those areas. I'm curious to get your thoughts. I, I talk with a lot of, a lot of individuals in our industry that are older than I, that have had lived through the eighties and nineties. And we had on the podcast, Richard Epstein, who is a professor of law at NYU. And we did a podcast on the history of rent control and rent stabilization in New York.   And I'm curious if you think that that had an effect on development of purpose-built over the last 20, 30, even 40 years in Ontario, or a few things, there was another, another factor that basically resulted in an over not overdevelopment, but leaning towards condos, as opposed to purpose-built because for those that don't know, the, the stock of purpose-built up until recently has been pretty old stock. And I was always curious if, if it was an actual thing with policy, or if it was more of a cultural thing of, of owning, owning a property rather than renting,   Shaun (15m 41s): I think it's a, it's a combination of things like rent control introduced in the seventies and evolved over time has, has certainly played a role. So capping the amount of increase that can be passed off to a tenant, obviously with strict revenue growth for, for that asset class and makes it economically less attractive to develop new as a result. So that that's, that's one factor, I think for sure, but I think, you know, part of it is the fact that, you know, during, during the mid mid two thousands, I'd say there was a big push from the government to put renters into the home ownership market, right?   This was a way of kind of reviving the economy, reviving the housing market after, you know, a pretty significant slope during the very most of the 1990s. And you saw, you know, things like 40 year amortizations get introduced to 0% down mortgages cash back at closing. I think it was, it was almost, you know, you're, you're almost a fool to, to rent at the time because it was, it was so much easier to get into the housing market and to arrest pepper, to buy than it is than it was to rent. So for a period of time, you saw this massive outflow of, of renters from the existing rental stock into the home ownership market.   And on an annual basis, we were actually losing renters as a population because we were adding so many of you to the ownership market and the home ownership rate is wrong, or just skyrocketed from between, you know, 2001 up until around 2011, 2016. And, you know, there wasn't really command to be building new rental apartments because the demand was all on the ownership side. And that's where kind of condominiums started to really take off because this was around the same time.   And since then the dynamics that started to change somewhat. So as, as, as the housing market has entered into the, you know, the later stages of this purchase cycle and, and housing has become so expensive, it's, it's had a huge impact on affordability. And as a result, homeownership rates have actually started to decline a little, and you're starting to see most of the household growth occurring within Toronto, actually happening within the rental space.   And this has pushed rents up, or at least a decrease in that dynamic to a level that started to make better economic sense to build than to invest in, you know, existing low cap rate buildings that were rent controlled. So, you know, starting, I would say around 20 15, 20 16, we started to notice that, you know, there were requests for market studies that were coming across our desks were starting to shift from condo to purpose-built rental, and you started to get a lot more institutional interests kind of coming into the marketplace.   So developers and, and investment partners looking at Toronto from a longer-term lens than they have in the past. So, you know, it was, it was pretty much entirely common development, presale the units getting move on to the next project. Whereas now it's, you know, how can we, how can we invest into the markets for the longterm and recognize that the population is expanding, we're going to in a, in a, in a, in a rental market that has structurally low vacancy rates at an average, you know, around a 2% for the last 10 to 20 years, we know that the population is going to continue to expand.   We know that whole ownership affordability is going to continue to be restricted for first time buyers. So how do we plan ahead for the future? And so, you know, a lot of the development proposals that are actually coming into the markets, they are for traditional purpose built rental, and we're, we're at a stage now where I think according to our latest report, we had about a hundred thousand units in the proposed pipeline that were expected to be developed as traditional rentals. And I'd say there's probably at least another 50,000 above that, that we've been looking at, haven't actually been officially submitted yet.   So we're building up the supply pipeline for the future. I think the next challenge is actually getting it through the development cycle because, you know, less than 20,000 units are actually in the pipeline and approved for development. So it's, you know, it's, it's, it's tough, you know, the, with, with COVID, you know, the rental market was hit pretty hard, particularly downtown and rents are only starting to come back now in our latest report, we've gotten that rents were up on a year, over year basis for the first time, since the pandemic in the third quarter, but there's still about four or 5% below what those pre COVID highs were.   So I think there's been a lot of uncertainty about, you know, when the market's going to come back, you know, what sort of a rent growth projection should, should we be incorporating into our performance? And, you know, has the outlook changed at all? Or is it even looking stronger because of increased immigration targets? And what's happened to housing prices since COVID-19, so it be interesting, it's interesting times, and, you know, th the development applications that are coming in or are starting to be, you know, more geographically dispersed.   So, you know, traditionally it only really made sense to build rental downtown because you could get $4 a square foot plus rents. But now one of the, one of the trends that we've seen since COVID-19 was that the suburban areas of the GTA were pretty much untouched in terms of the rental markets. And these are low supply markets that had, you know, very little existing purpose-built rental stock to begin with. They were entirely relying on, on Palmdale stock for rentals, which there wasn't that much out as well, because investors were mostly focused downtown then in the suburbs.   And then you saw this infusion of demand as the population began to sort of spread itself out around the region. And rents actually are, you know, higher today than where they were pre COVID vacancy rates are still stuck at around one to 2%. And, and I think developers are starting to notice this and, and, and a lot of development slated for master plan communities around existing shopping centers located on the group of fringe. And, and then I don't buy. And, you know, it's not just a matter of, you know, getting a site and throwing up a tower.   It's, you know, how do we, how do we make a complete community here? How do we make it mixed use near transit, integrated with retail office, other commercial components that can make a new place, a new living environment for, for renters. And it'll be fascinating to see how this evolves over the next 10 to 20 years, because you know, the, the old model of, of renting in Toronto, it's going to dramatically change as we move through the next couple of decades.   Jesse (22m 22s): I got to get your thoughts on the 2018 bill. That was a, I believe it was 2018 bill that was basically buildings built after 2018 were exempt for the most part, I believe from, from rent control, built buildings built prior to that, you know, the stabilization we have in our various provinces, at least for Ontario would stay status quo. Do you think that had a, had a, an effect on, on the, you know, this push to more purpose-built developments?   Shaun (22m 53s): I think so, you know, the, the data did show that after, after November, 2018, we did, we did begin to see a greater inflow of development applications come in for rental. They were building before that, but we did see that pace of, of, of, of, of, of submissions actually accelerate. But I, I think there's, there's probably some level of skepticism w within the development industry, that this policy could change with the change of government, right.   Quite, quite easily, and quick, quickly, particularly in this environment where we're housing it is is, is forefront on political issues. And, you know, if another government takes over the province, you know, we could see that change fast. So I think, I think, I think developers realize that, you know, it could be forced to, to, to, to have rent control units in the builds. And, you know, for the most part, for, for those that we do work with, they don't typically have aggressive rent, growth assumptions.   Like they need to be able to make these numbers work with conservative growth estimates. So they're, they're looking at rents today. They're, you know, they're factoring in a rebound pre COVID numbers in the short term, which is like, which is, I think, a realistic, but also looking at, you know, a historical rate of rent projection that is consistent with what we've been seeing over the last 10 to 15 years, which is, you know, I think we're probably carrying around if we're going to have 4%, which is, which is, I think a conservative given the fact that it won't be long before we're back to, you know, 2% or less vacancy rates across the city.   And our latest data shows that we're, we're pretty much on our way there.   Jesse (24m 42s): So I guess one of the, one of the benefits with the new, I mean, the newer build, even if the policy did reverse, like you're saying whether it's two or 3%, maybe 4% rental growth projections, I think it's just as a in competition or with the backdrop of you can buy an existing apartment building. And it's really the issue. There is the mark to market of rents where you have historically low rents. I'm curious on your thoughts. You know what I mean? These things are completely interwoven in our city, but the, the shadow market or the condo market, there's different names for it, where that these condo owners rent out their space.   And it's kind of, you know, typically mom and pop, I have a couple of condos I rent out and it's kind of taking the place of the apartment buildings. Purpose-built how big of a market is that, you know, like what, from, from your data, w what size of the market would you say that that encapsulates?   Shaun (25m 40s): So what 40% of condos in Toronto are used as, as rental properties, so that that's grown over the years. I think it was 20 to 25%, maybe, maybe 10 to 15 years ago. So it, it tends to rise, but it's, it's rising at a slower pace than it has in the past. It seems like we're kind of reaching a, an equilibrium of around 40%. And I think, you know, it's, it's been, it's been easy for investors to buy units and hold onto them because the economics of doing so and so favorable, right?   You could buy a unit three construction, and you don't have to close on it for four or five years. So you have that timeframe for rents to inflate, to a level that will make the unit cashflow positive. And historically that's always worked out very well. In fact, we did a study on all of the condo units in the GTA at rich completion in 2020. And we looked at what their closing price was. We looked at the rents that they were able to at closing, and we also teamed up with land registry to understand what their mortgage costs were.   So we were able to actually calculate on a unit by unit basis, what, what cash flow actually realized was, and what we found was that most investors still were cash flow positive or cashflow neutral, though. Two thirds of them are, and less than 40% were, were at cashflow negative position. And really it was only investors that were comfortable negative or only those that had remortgaged the unit at closing. So if you closed on the unit at the, at the secure pre-sale price from several years ago, and you also were able to take advantage of interest rates that were on historical lows.   I mean, it was, it was so easy to, to, to just get it out, even at right levels that were somewhat depressed last year, but this all kind of looks backwards at the fact that, you know, investors were closing on units that were bought before the big jump up the condo crisis. So when we looked at the average price per square foot for units that closed in 2020, it was less than $700. So less than $700 a square foot, the average new condo price in the GTA right now is $1,200 a square foot.   And for the units that are going to be closing in, let's say, 20, 24, 20 25, they're going to be closing at a presale price of around $1,300 a square foot. So I was bullish as the next guy on the rental market. I think we'll, we'll, we'll see good rent inflation in the next few years, but that's going to require about 75% growth in rents from where they are right now for investors to continue to be cashflow neutral or cashflow positive in, in, you know, four years time, let's say.   So I think the shadow market is going to change. It may not be as, as, as, as strong as it's been in the past because of the big jump in prices. And the fact that this is going to make it tougher for an investor to hold on to their units. And, you know, investors are generally okay with being cashflow negative so long as the unit continues to appreciate. So if we get into a situation where, you know, the, the cashflow is isn't there, and, you know, the, the price of the unit is appreciating perhaps slowly, there's going to be less of an incentive to hold onto the unit for, for, for as long as they have historically.   So I think this represents an opportunity for the primary market to step up, right? Like you're, you're not going to have as much competition with the secondary market because of the fact that they're going to have to be pushing rents to $6 a square foot by 2025, if they're going to have any chance of making these units cashflow positive and probably higher than that, if we're factoring in some increases in interest rates. So the other thing is that the shadow market, the secondary condo rental market tends to be heavily skewed towards small units, right?   So you've got a small one bedroom units, some studios that are favorable amongst investors because they have a lowest price tag. And historically they're able to generate the greatest rental yields, but the demographics of renters are much more diverse than just having a 500 square foot unit. And this is where purpose-built rental development helps to fill a void. You see that, that, that purpose-built rental projects typically have a larger average suite size and it called the rental window, usually about a hundred, hundred square feet larger, much more, much, much more diverse in terms of its unit mix, some more tubings suites, for instance, that could accommodate, you know, couples, small families, roommate situations, it's, you know, gas sizers.   We're seeing quite a, quite a few of those gravitating towards the rental market. So liquidating the primary residence and using that to help fund retirement and, and actually downsizing into a rental as opposed to purchasing a similar sized condo unit, which would be well over a million dollars in today's marketplace. So I think, you know, purposeful rental is, is, is, is evolving the apartment market in general by, you know, looking more towards the future demographic trends and also from a product standpoint, right?   There's, you know, when you, when you, when you, when you build a building and you're holding it, you have to kind of resell it over time, right. To the next tenant that's been moved in. So there's much more attention that gets paid to the amenities spaces, the Walgreens, the experience of living in the building resident services. So I think you're, you're, you're seeing some in a lot of cases, higher quality buildings coming in. And I know that the developers that are active in today's space are looking quite closely to what's been happening in the us, right?   Like the U S is much more advanced than we are in building new multi-family housing. So, you know, understanding what's worked and what hassles and bringing in professional management and into those new buildings, it's, it's been interesting to see, and it's, I think it's a learning exercise. And even within, you know, a small number of new rentals that are being built, you know, I I'm seeing that product evolve from where it was even just a few years ago.   Jesse (31m 50s): Yeah. I think that's a positive thing. And even on the consumer level or the, you know, the renter, if there's that more certainty that you're not going to get evicted, or that there's a certainty of, of tenancy, as opposed to having a condo where you can be in a precarious situation, I want to switch gears to some of the supply aspects. You mentioned immigration, obviously COVID has had an impact on, on the whole world, Canada, generally speaking, we're pro-immigration country countries built by immigrants in terms of the effect that you think that we'll have in the next few years, given the numbers, being slightly adjusted to where they were a few years ago, but basically your outlook on how immigration will impact real estate.   And if you think that we are, we are, we have enough supply because I know you mentioned 20, 21 would be a record year for condo units, I believe, but, but is there still a supply constraint given the fact that we could have, you know, more population growth?   Shaun (32m 54s): Yeah, for sure. So if you look at the last 12 months for permanent immigrants admissions into Toronto, then it's written back about a hundred thousand, but for the last fall, last of September, 2021. So a lot of this is the conversion of non permanent residents into permanent residence. So a lot of them may already be living here, but the government seems to be very, very focused on continuing to raise those integration targets over the next few years, and as travel returns to more normal levels, you'll actually see that begin to materialize into actual population growth.   So I think that's partly important to understand Toronto typically receives about 35% of all the immigrants that come to a public country. And unfortunately we're not building a pace that's going to be able to satisfy that level of demographic demand. So we've been pretty much stuck at building at a pace of under 40,000 housing units a year for the GTA for the past 20 years.   Housing construction generally across the province has risen in, in, in the last number of months. So it is responding to demand and anticipating future demand, but it's been that growth has been entirely focused outside of the GTA. So it's happening in less supply constrained markets within the province. And in fact, for the first time in a long time, there's more housing being built outside of Toronto in other parts of the province than there is within Toronto. So I think, you know, this is, this is, this is a policy problem that you're introducing higher immigration targets, but you're not necessarily looking towards housing supply to, to accommodate that growth.   And inevitably what happens is that the new immigrants get, get shut out of the Toronto housing market because there just simply isn't any supply. And they begin to move into areas where perhaps there is more supply and that may not be economically the right thing to do because you know, a lot of the immigrant new immigrate immigrants are, are working in, in, in, in, in economic hubs, which are mostly located in central areas of Toronto. So, you know, there's more commuting and that sort of thing that goes on.   So I think, you know, more certainly needs to be done. W we will see a lot of condo completions in 20 20, 22. And you can look at this through, you know, the historical relationship between presale launch launches. And then there's normally a five-year lag between when they actually get delivered a record year in 2017 for launches. So it stands to reason that next year there's going to be a pretty big year for, for condo occupancies. Most of those will be offered for rent still, I believe. So. I think you're going to have, you know, a little bit of an increase in supply to meet that additional demand, but by no means, will we be building a pace that's going to satisfy the, the level of population growth that's going to be coming into the market in the next few years.   So, unfortunately, there's, there's really, isn't much that can be done about this in the interim, because all of the supply that's going to be coming to market, I would say over the next seven years has already been spoken for, we already know how many units are under construction. We already know how many units are approved for development. So we know generally how much supply is going to be coming in, you know, within the next five, seven years. And it simply isn't going to be enough. And if you look at kind of how the dynamics are going to be shifting between ownership and renting, there's going to be an even larger deficit of rental units.   Then we then we've seen in the past. So it won't be long before we're, we're back to 1% vacancy rates and rents that are inflating much, much higher than, than, than, than historical norms. You know, it just, in the first quarter of this year, we were recording vacancy rates in downtown Toronto at 9%, six months later, they were below 4% and another six months they'll probably be below 2%. And this is without immigration, right? This is, this is, this is happening, you know, before that big surge in population happens.   So, you know, what it's going to look like in the next few years is, you know, much of what we were seeing pre COVID, but, you know, amplify to a degree.   Jesse (37m 10s): So we asked four questions at the end of the show with all the guests, but before we get there, I wanted to kind of, you talked a little bit about it, but a prognosticate a little bit about the next few years for development, you know, you touched on rental rental growth. I can assume I can infer from that, that as we have compression of vacancy rates, that rents will go up. Do you see a, a point where, you know, we've seen, at least in, in, in our brokerage, we've seen record prices, record cap rates.   You know, I've said for the last 10 years, interest rates can't get any lower and they continue to get lower. Where do you see if at all that we come up to a wall when it comes to whether it's asset inflation or rental growth?   Shaun (37m 55s): Well, for per housing crisis, I think you're going to see some resistance next year as is inflation numbers. And the communication coming from the central bank made it quite clear that interest going to start to revise it soft point probably early next year. And you know, the market's pricing in at least four moves by Canada. So, you know, given where housing prices are, that's going to have an impact on affordability, for sure. I mean, that's the been one of the biggest drivers of, of the asset inflation that we've been seeing, it's the record, low interest rates. And as those start to normalize, you begin to see some headwinds in terms of that growth.   So whether that happens, you know, the first half of the second half or the early 20, 23, it's hard know because you know what impact that's having on the broader economy. But certainly I think, you know, the narrative is going to shift from one where we're seeing housing prices grow by 20 to 30% to one where they're starting to at least level out, but usually there's, there's trade off there, right? As you see big increases in housing prices inflation, it tends to lead to higher rates of rent inflation.   And we haven't seen it yet, but I think we will see it. But to your point, you know, when you're looking at rental growth in rent inflation, you're constrained by incomes, right? Like there's only so much that a you can afford. And yes, we're seeing higher income, new immigrants coming into the GTA that can afford higher rents. But, you know, even though there's going to be some, some resistance levels, if you look at the average price of a new purpose built rental in the, in the GTA, it's about $2,400 a month. So the average new new immigrant coming in, you know, is, is probably earning something that, that, that would make that kind of on the fringe of being affordable.   But if you relate it to the average ownership costs for a condo, for instance, it's a thousand dollars a month cheaper. So it is really the de facto way of introducing a affordable housing supply in the GTA that, that is geared to the market. So at a certain point, though, you know, you will, you will start to see some resistance and we actually did begin to see that pre COVID. So once rest started to rise to 25, 20 $600 a month, you began to see renters pull back a little bit and, and, and, and the demand didn't dissipate, it just started to move into less expensive markets.   So I think that that's something that will, that will reemerge, like right now, the hottest segment of the market for rental growth is the downtown market because it's in that recovery phase. But once it starts to exceed those preached pre pandemic levels, you'll probably begin to see, you know, renters look for more affordable pockets of the market, and that will help to manage, I suppose, the, the continued growth that we're expecting.   Jesse (40m 42s): Fair enough. All right, Sean, we have four questions if you're ready to go all LABA, Matt. Yeah. All right. Something, you know, now in your career, whether business or in the real estate industry, you wish you knew when you first started out   Shaun (40m 57s): Something that I know now, geez, I guess it's, you know, the market never works the way that you're going to expect it to work. You know, you can, you can have the best economic model, but you know, there there's, there's, there's so much human emotion in real estate, in psychological elements that, you know, sometimes I think, you know, we'd be better equipped to be a psychologist and an economist when trying to evaluate the market outlook.   So learning to, to understand that a forecast is, is more than opinion and, and, and, you know, it's subject to a lot of variability. I think every economist in marketing analyst there has had to learn over the last several years   Jesse (41m 47s): In terms of mentorship, somebody that's just breaking into or thinking about breaking into our industry, what would you say to that person   Shaun (41m 57s): Learn as much as you possibly can, you know, a firm such as organation is great at, at learning the industry from the ground up. So understanding the data, gaining, getting exposed to, you know, the development industry across the board, I think is incredibly valuable. So, you know, you know, we're working for a large organization is, is great, or a boutique organization such as organization as well, but being exposed to understanding how the market works and learning the data, learning how to source information and how the, the market functions practically I think is probably a great starting point   Jesse (42m 36s): Booker podcasts you could recommend to listeners   Shaun (42m 41s): Or podcast. Geez, I'm not big on both. To be honest, I, I, I, I read the news. Like I slipped a little, little, little time that I, I try to consume media through, through the newspaper. So I'm probably one of the few people that actually still get a printed global mail delivered to me every morning. And that's really all the time I have to spend on, on, on consuming media is, is when I sit down and actually read through the paper, you know, I think I was, I was starting to get into podcasts a little bit more before the pandemic, while I was commuting into work, but not having that time to sit down and listen to podcasts anymore is, you know, reverted back to traditional media and said, okay,   Jesse (43m 30s): All right. And for those that aren't, aren't watching this and listening, Sean, you look like you're, you're 35. So that's, that's awesome that you're still getting the, the paper. Last question, you know, this is the toughie first car make and model   Shaun (43m 44s): My first car. That was my own, that, that wasn't provided to me by my parents was a Chevrolet cavalier.   Jesse (43m 54s): I was very close. That was the Sunfire. That's great. That's great too. We've had, we've had some interesting cars on the show over the last 80 episodes. That's awesome. Shine. I really appreciate you taking the time for those that want to learn a bit more about urban nation or, you know, reach out to you. What's the best, best approach   Shaun (44m 13s): You can visit our website. urbanation.ca. We have a lot of information there. You can send an inquiry into the, the general line in Cote urbanation.ca or myself, Shawn S H a U n@urbanation.ca. Happy to answer any questions that may come up,   Jesse (44m 29s): I guess today has been Shawn Hildebrand. Sean, thanks for being part of working capital. Thank you so much for listening to working capital the real estate podcast. I'm your host, Jesse, for galley. If you liked the episode, head on to iTunes and leave us a five-star review and share on social media, it really helps us out. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on Instagram, Jesse for galley, F R a G a L E, have a good one take care.

"I believe that the market will bounce back much faster than a lot of people expect and it's going to be surprising to many." — Shaun Hildebrand The way the pandemic has disrupted rental housing makes a ton of sense given the impact on employment, immigration, and the student population.  But the data offers some surprising insights into how the rental market has changed.  And it offers a glimpse into what we can expect in the months and years to come. In this episode of Sync or Swim, we're featuring Shaun Hildebrand, President of Urbanation, a Toronto-based real estate consulting firm that provides research, market analysis, and consulting services to the apartment industry. What we talked about: The pandemic-driven turnover in the rental market How growing supply and shrinking demand led to a drop in rents in the purpose-built market The major factors driving excess supply in the market Whether we should be expecting a bounce back in the rental housing market in 2021 Get more insights into the rental housing market by following Urbanation on Twitter. If you liked this episode, be sure to subscribe or follow Sync or Swim wherever you get your podcasts, Apple, Google Podcasts, or Spotify.

Today’s guest, making appearance number three, is Shaun Hildebrand. He is the President of Urbanation, a small research and consulting firm based in Toronto. They focus on the GTA condominium and rental apartment market, providing subscribers with access to their well researched database. The episode begins with a strong focus on condos, as Shaun provides... The post COVID-19 and GTA Residential Development with Shaun Hildebrand of Urbanation appeared first on Commercial Real Estate Podcast.

Joel Conquer, Urbanation talks about record apartment surge in Toronto after rent control lifted

Are we building too many condos in Toronto? Who can afford to buy a condo in Toronto at today’s prices? What will happen to condo prices and rents in the next few years ahead? Find out the answer to these questions and more on today’s episode as Andrew la Fleur breaks down the latest stats from Urbanation. Click here for show notes. Andrew la Fleur / Sales Representative 416-371-2333 / andrew@truecondos.com http://www.truecondos.com http://www.twitter.com/andrewlafleur http://www.facebook.com/truecondos  

Today we’re talking residential development in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). President of Urbanation and previous podcast guest Shaun Hildebrand joins us to discuss the drivers of supply and demand for condominiums within the GTA. The last time we spoke with Shaun (previous episode), the market was adjusting to the idea that condos were not... The post GTA Residential Development with Shaun Hildebrand of Urbanation appeared first on Commercial Real Estate Podcast.

In this episode we catch up with Shab Rajabzadeh of Cornerstone Marketing to find out the latest on Transit City Condos in Vaughan Metropolitan Centre. The project launched in May and has broken the record for most condos ever sold at a new project launch for the entire GTA as per Urbanation. The first two towers are sold out and the 3rd tower has now been launched. Find out what else is new at Transit City. Click here for show notes. Andrew la Fleur / Sales Representative 416-371-2333 / andrew@truecondos.com http://www.truecondos.com http://www.twitter.com/andrewlafleur http://www.facebook.com/truecondos

There has been a lot of sensationalized stories in the media recently about the Toronto rental market. Could rents really be going up by 100% per year as some stories have suggested? Do we currently have a rental housing crisis? Is there even a problem at all, and are rent controls the solution? Where should condo investors be investing now? Find out what Shaun Hildebrand of Urbanation has to say as we discuss Urbanation’s Q1 rental market report. Click here for show notes. Andrew la Fleur / Sales Representative 416-371-2333 / andrew@truecondos.com http://www.truecondos.com http://www.twitter.com/andrewlafleur http://www.facebook.com/truecondos

Urbanation just released their year end numbers for the Toronto condo rental market. Rental rates were up an incredible 12% in the fourth quarter of 2016! Yet many first time investors still wonder if they will be able to rent out their units when completed. Find out what Pauline Lierman, Director of Market Research for Urbanation has to say. Click here for show notes. Andrew la Fleur / Sales Representative 416-371-2333 / andrew@truecondos.com http://www.truecondos.com http://www.twitter.com/andrewlafleur http://www.facebook.com/truecondos  

Conventional wisdom says the condo market is over-built and apartment proformas don’t work in the GTA. The data says the exact opposite and the numbers are truly incredible. Shaun Hildebrand of Urbanation joins us to discuss his findings in the newly released Q3 2016 Market Update  (Download it here) In this episode: Rent per square... The post What the Data Says About High Rise Rental with Shaun Hildebrand of Urbanation appeared first on Commercial Real Estate Podcast.

The rental market for Toronto condos is breaking all kinds of records this year. Supply at an all time low. Sales-to-listings at an all time high. Rental prices increasing by 9% to an all time high. Days on the market at an all time low. What is driving this crazy and insatiable demand for renting Toronto condos and how long will it continue? Shaun Hildebrand of Urbanation discusses on this episode.   Click here for show notes.   Andrew la Fleur / Sales Representative 416-371-2333 / andrew@truecondos.com http://www.truecondos.com http://www.twitter.com/andrewlafleur http://www.facebook.com/truecondos  

Urbanation just released their “UrbanRentalReport” for the second quarter of 2016. The big news is that rentals areactually down 10% this quarter, the first time rentals have dropped since theybegan tracking the market in 2011. Should condo investors be worried? Find outon this episode Click here for show notes.   Andrew la Fleur / Sales Representative 416-371-2333 / andrew@truecondos.com http://www.truecondos.com http://www.twitter.com/andrewlafleur     http://www.facebook.com/truecondos

2015 is now in the rearview mirror and 2016 is off to a roaring start. In this episode Andrew la Fleur takes a look at what the top forecasters have to say about the market including Altus/Realnet, Urbanation, and TREB, then he shares his own unique perspective on what to expect of the condo market in 2016.   Click here for show notes. Andrew la Fleur / Sales Representative 416-371-2333 / andrew@truecondos.com http://www.truecondos.com http://www.twitter.com/andrewlafleur     http://www.facebook.com/truecondos

This week we sit down with Shaun Hildebrand of Urbanation. Urbanation has been tracking the Toronto condo market since 1981. We talked about the latest data from the market which is showing the highest rental demand Toronto has seen in nearly 30 years. Condo ownership rates looked like they have peaked and rental turnover rates are down. What this means for condo investors and more. Related Links: Urbanation Urbanation’s blog Urbanation on Twitter Andrew la Fleur / Sales Representative 416-371-2333 / andrew@truecondos.com http://www.truecondos.com http://www.twitter.com/andrewlafleur   http://www.facebook.com/truecondos    

In this week’s podcast episode, Pauline Liedman of Urbanation discusses the Q2 condo rental numbers with Andrew la Fleur. The market continues to perform even above industry insiders’ expectations Click here for show notes. Andrew la Fleur / Sales Representative 416-371-2333/ andrew@truecondos.com http://www.truecondos.com twitter.com/andrewlafleur facebook.com/truecondos  

One of the most common questions that I get asked from first time condo investors is will I be able to rent out my condo once it is complete? In this episode I look at the latest numbers from Urbanation on the Toronto Condo rental market from Q2-2015. The bottom line is that the condo rental market in Toronto continues to have superhuman strength and investors have nothing to worry about at all.Click here for show notes.Andrew la Fleur / Sales Representative416-371-2333/ andrew@truecondos.comhttp://www.truecondos.comtwitter.com/andrewlafleurfacebook.com/truecondos

In this week’s episode of the True Condos podcast, Andrew la Fleur discusses the current state of the Toronto condo market with Shaun Hildebrand of Urbanation. For more than 30 years, Urbanation Inc. has been actively tracking Toronto’s high rise condominium market. From projects in the planning stages, to new projects in the presale and construction phases, to completed projects trading units in the resale and rental markets — Urbanation monitors the market from a 360 degree angle with consummate accuracy that is unmatched.