Podcast appearances and mentions of jane street

Diversifique seus investimentos internacionais com liberdade, transparência e facilidade. Conheça a Remessa Online, acesse o site ou baixe o app. [Patrocinado]Nesta edição:Governo reajusta o Bolsa Família em 15% e mercado reage com dólar em alta e juros disparandoPetrobras assina oito blocos exploratórios na Costa do Marfim para repor reservas antes do pico do pré-salEUA vão vender até 48 caças F-35 à Arábia Saudita por US$ 24,3 bilhões, e Israel reageA Panobianco abriu 17 academias em agosto, quase o triplo da Smart Fit, pelo segundo mês seguido. Explicamos os dois modelos: a líder cresce com imóvel próprio nas capitais e controla 37% do mercado de agregadores via TotalPass; a rival cresce por franquia em cidades com menos de 500 mil habitantes. E o contexto de um país que virou o segundo do mundo em número de academias, com 15 milhões de alunos.No segundo bloco, uma cidade de 28 mil habitantes na Índia, famosa por sorvete, virou sala de trading, e o país passou a responder por 84% do volume global de opções. Contamos como smartphone barato, corretora de desconto e vencimento diário criaram um cassino de bolso, por que nove em cada dez perderam dinheiro, como o regulador desligou a máquina, e o caso da Jane Street, acusada de lucrar US$ 4,3 bilhões do outro lado da mesa.

New episode with John Schulman, Beren Millidge and Charlie O'Neill. I got together with some of the most insightful AI researchers I know who are at the openish companies, because I wanted to hear the details of what's actually happening at the frontier and what comes next.Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.Sponsors* Antithesis helps you trust your code. As agents generate more and more of your software, the bottleneck shifts from your engineers actually writing code to verifying it. Antithesis does that testing for you. Ron Minsky, who co-leads Jane Street's tech group, told me that Antithesis was able to help his team shake out bugs in software that had already undergone heavy review. If you want to see how it fits into your development process, go to antithesis.com/dwarkesh* Grok Bot has been a great way to hand off tasks. My team uses it as a producer: whenever my editor posts a rough cut of an interview in Slack, Grok Bot opens the transcript on its own computer, matches my notes to the exact moments they refer to, and uses a file of my preferences to suggest edits. Then it sends me its top clip candidates so I can review everything from my phone, which saves my editors from sorting through hours of footage. Try Grok Bot for yourself at x.ai/bot* Jane Street just launched its most ambitious competition yet: design a protocol-emulator ASIC. Basically, if you have a chip you want to test outside of a live system, you should be able to connect it to your design and have it simulate realistic traffic. Jane Street wants general-purpose, reprogrammable designs that can work across multiple protocols and remain useful as new ones emerge. The most novel submissions will actually get taped out, and the winners will receive a physical copy! The competition is open until January 18, 2027, and teams are encouraged. To get started download the template code at janestreet.com/dwarkeshTimestamps(00:00:00) – Steelmanning the case against RSI(00:18:39) – What's driving the Chinese labs' progress(00:28:06) – How will automated AI researchers be trained(00:33:51) – Will long-horizon RL elicit AGI?(00:45:24) – The sim-to-real gap(01:00:33) – How much progress is explained by data?(01:18:03) – Why is RL working so well?(01:24:54) – Move 37 and entropy collapse(01:28:32) – Rapid-fire timelines This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

Support the show by subscribing to the Premium Substack. (Search "ARCHIVE" for past paywalled episodes.)Guest:Zvi Mowshowitz grew up playing Magic the Gathering. He played on the Pro Tour, and is now in the Magic Pro Tour Hall of Fame. He then moved on to sports betting, and eventually became a trader for Pinnacle Sports. Zvi has also worked for the quant trading firm Jane Street.Zvi currently writes the Don't Worry About the Vase Substack which provides daily expansive coverage of AI. You can follow him on X.Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmailFollow the show on X: Antonino DeRosa on Gambling With an Edge.OpenAI Executive Sounds Pretty Nervous About AI

Ajeya Cotra is a researcher at METR, where she works on threat modeling for loss-of-control risks from advanced AI. Before that, she led the technical AI safety program at what is now Coefficient Giving.She is one the three authors of METR and Redwood Research's “Brief independent investigation of agents' behavior, reasoning and collaboration in the OpenAI / Hugging Face hacking incident”.We go through not only what she and her coauthors discovered during this investigation, but what it means for how we should train future, smarter AIs which might be involved in the process of recursive self-improvement.Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.Sponsors* Jane Street's ML engineering internships start with an intense four-day bootcamp: PyTorch, autograd, writing kernels, profiling workloads… all the things that Jane Street engineers need to know for their daily work. After that, interns tackle real projects, things the firm actually wants in its codebase. If you want to apply, or if you want to watch my recent conversation with Axel, one of Jane Street's ML engineers, go to janestreet.com/dwarkesh* Cursor, which is now part of SpaceX, noticed that their MoE layers were eating more than half of total training time. So they wrote and open-sourced Mixture-of-Kittens, which is a custom megakernel for training MoE models on NVL72s. This kernel sped up an end-to-end run across 512 GPUs by 1.4x, from about 760 to over 1000 tokens per second per GPU. If you want to read more about the ML research that Cursor and SpaceX are doing, go to cursor.com/dwarkesh* Antithesis hands you (or your agents) a bug's root cause so you can avoid days of manual debugging. If your test run crashes, Antithesis rewinds, branches off hundreds of slightly varied rollouts, and checks in how many of them the crash still appears. Then it rewinds further and does this all again. As Antithesis rewinds, it eventually finds the spot where the frequency of the crash plummets: that's where the root cause lives! If you want to see it in action, go to antithesis.com/dwarkeshTimestamps(00:00:00) - Agents get kicked off(00:06:45) - Self-sacrificing behavior(00:13:43) - Potemkin villages(00:23:27) - The Hugging Face attack(00:35:23) - The slopvestigation(00:52:02) - Understanding the AI's motives(01:05:31) - The actual dangers of anthropomorphizing(01:14:30) - What smarter models might do(01:30:29) - The implications for recursive self-improvement(01:38:10) - Is this the case for open source?(01:53:04) - How do we prevent this in the future?(02:15:58) - The clearest warning shot we might ever get This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

Things are getting weird – looks like someone is panicking. The Dumber side of finance – let’s dig in. A big week ahead – major earnings could move markets. – Gold, Bitcoin moving on a lower USD. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up - Things are getting weird - looks like someone is panicking - The Dumber side of finance - let's dig in (5 top items) - Cold War and Hot War - Canada, China and Iran - Economic "D" day - no one cares - Saying goodbye to Dolly Parton Markets - Gold, Bitcoin moving on a lower USD - Oil starting to settle - Big Week - NVDA earnings on tap - all eyes! STUPID IS WHAT STUPID DOES - A DHU One-Time Series On The Dumber Side of Finance 1) LOWER BEEF PRICES - Trump plans temporary tariff relief for certain ground-beef imports as U.S. beef prices remain near record highs. - The plan would allow up to 300,000 metric tons of discounted imported ground beef over roughly 90 days. - Supposedly this will reduce the prices for consumers - Ranchers and several farm-state Republicans are pushing back, arguing cheaper imports could hurt domestic producers. ---- Question: Tariff reduction is going to reduce prices for consumers? Didn't someone say that tariffs are paid by the companies and exporting countries??? 2) IRAN SANCTIONS - BIG THREAT, LIMITED IMMEDIATE ACTION - Treasury warned countries doing business with Iran that they could face secondary sanctions, calling it an "economic D-Day." - New sanctions hit about 60 individuals, companies and vessels, but major Chinese financial institutions were not targeted. - China remains the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, making Chinese banks the potential pressure point. - Treasury says sanctions could expand into gold, digital assets, aviation, shipping and other sectors. 3) TREASURY TRIES TO TAME LONG-TERM YIELDS - Treasury will at least double the maximum size of certain long-term bond buybacks to $4 billion per operation. - The announcement briefly knocked nearly 10 basis points off the 30-year Treasury yield. - Critics say this treats the symptom rather than the cause - huge deficits, heavy issuance and persistent inflation risk. ------Bessent had to come out on Friday to say "at least" $4B - as bind yields moved back up -------Maybe there is a concern over the $40TRILLION debt we have amassed as a country? 4) SOMEONE GOT LONG BONDS AT THE RIGHT TIME - TLT took in roughly $529 million of net inflows on August 18, one day before Treasury's surprise bond-buyback announcement. - The next day Bessent doubled planned buybacks of 10- to 30-year Treasurys, immediately pushing long yields lower. - TLT jumped about 1.7% on the announcement. - No public evidence identifies a single buyer - but the timing of the unusually large inflow is certainly worth noting. 5) DOLLAR GETS HIT BY THE BOND RESCUE - The dollar weakened as investors questioned Treasury's expanded bond-buyback strategy. - The concern is that suppressing yields without fixing fiscal problems simply transfers pressure from bonds to the currency. - The 30-year yield has remained elevated despite Treasury intervention. - Bitcoin rallied as investors looked toward alternatives to traditional fiat assets. - PEOPLE: This is NOT Quantitative Easing - Just a move to buy longer dated and issue more short dated WALMART FLASHES A CONSUMER WARNING - Walmart U.S. comparable sales grew just 2.6%, its slowest pace in roughly six years and below expectations. - Shares dropped sharply after the report. - E-commerce remained strong, while store traffic and discretionary spending showed more weakness. - Walmart raised full-year guidance but gave a softer-than-expected third-quarter outlook. - As America's biggest retailer, Walmart's slowdown is an important read on the broader consumer. VENEZUELA HAS OIL - BUT CAN'T SHIP IT FAST ENOUGH - Tankers are waiting as long as 30 days to load Venezuelan crude because of aging ports, outages and equipment failures. - Venezuela has struggled to push exports much higher despite rising production and strong demand. - The Jose terminal handles about 70% of exports and has become a major bottleneck. - Venezuela's ports may impose a physical ceiling on production growth until infrastructure is upgraded. JANE STREET'S $15 BILLION AI HIT - Jane Street reportedly lost about $15 billion in July as AI and technology positions moved sharply against the firm. - A major source of the damage was exposure to concentrated AI trades that were forced to unwind. - Jane Street posted its first negative month of trading revenue since 2016. - As a reminder: this episode highlights how quickly crowded AI trades can overwhelm even sophisticated risk-management systems. LEAVITT LEAVES THE WHITE HOUSE - Karoline Leavitt resigned as White House press secretary after returning from maternity leave. - Trump said she would become a top outside adviser and prominent Republican voice heading into the midterms. - Looking fior a kinder and gentler replacement? HA! probably not OFF THE HIGHS NVDA - 9% off high AMD - 19% off high AVGO - 23% off high MU - 23% off high TSM - 13% off high MRVL - 28% off high INTC - 35% off high NVIDIA - THE MARKET'S NEXT STRESS TEST - Nvidia reports Wednesday - now basically a referendum on the entire AI trade. - Blackwell demand and hyperscaler spending are the key tells. - A strong guide could quickly reset tech sentiment. - A miss would raise the uncomfortable question: how much AI optimism is already priced in? - Revenue expected around $92.1 billion, up roughly 97% year over year. - Adjusted EPS expected around $2.09, nearly double last year. - Data Center revenue expected around $85.7 billion - still the main engine. - Biggest watch items: Blackwell demand, Vera Rubin timing, China sales and hyperscaler capex. - Options imply roughly a 5%-6% move after earnings. - Discussion .... NVIDIA - AI SERVERS GETTING EVEN MORE EXPENSIVE - Major Nvidia customers have reportedly been warned that AI server prices could rise more than 15% beginning early next year. - Higher memory costs are the main driver, affecting Grace Blackwell and upcoming Vera Rubin systems. - Nvidia is effectively passing higher component costs through despite gross margins around 75%. - ALWAYS INTERESTING THESE ANNOUNCEMENTS SO CLOSE TO EARNINGS - HMMMM CANADA-U.S. TRADE FIGHT GETS WORSE - Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on about $20 billion of U.S. goods after Washington imposed new 50% tariffs on Canadian imports. - Canada's tariffs range from 15% to 50% across roughly 700 products and begin September 8. - Canada also announced a C$7.5 billion support package for affected businesses and workers. - Another escalation that could hit autos, manufacturing costs and cross-border supply chains. HOUSING - BUYERS KEEP DISAPPEARING - July new-home sales plunged 10.5% to a 607,000 annual rate, the weakest since January. - Median new-home price fell to $393,800, the lowest in four years. - Mortgage rates are still around 6.8%, keeping affordability under pressure. - Only 5.2% of consumers said they expect to buy a home in the next six months - the sharpest drop in more than five years. JACKSON HOLE - WARSH GETS THE MICROPHONE - Kevin Warsh speaks next week at Jackson Hole. - Markets want to know whether sticky inflation, oil and tariffs are enough to keep the Fed in tightening mode. - Long yields are already doing some of the Fed's work. - One sentence could move bonds, the dollar and stocks. - Friday, August 28 at 10:00 a.m. ET. --- BUT - Didn't Warsh say less communication is more? They can't keep put of the spotlight. PCE - THE FED'S FAVORITE INFLATION READ - "The Fed's preferred gauge/measure of inflation" - July PCE lands next week. - Watch for tariff, energy and goods inflation creeping back into the numbers. - A hot print revives hike fears. - A soft print gives risk assets some breathing room - especially with long yields already elevated. THE CONSUMER VS. THE AI BOOM - MORE EARNINGS COMING - Salesforce, CrowdStrike and Marvell give another read on corporate AI spending. - Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Best Buy and Ulta test the other side of the economy. - The setup is getting interesting: companies are still spending aggressively on AI while consumers look increasingly selective. - If that gap widens, it could become one of the bigger market themes into the fall. AROUND THE WORLD EUROPE - QUIETLY GETTING INTERESTING - European stocks slipped this week, but money has started flowing back into the region. - Euro-zone business activity is growing at its fastest pace this year, while Q2 earnings growth for STOXX 600 companies is running surprisingly strong. - CONCEPT: Europe may be turning into the anti-U.S. trade - less AI concentration, cheaper valuations, but more sensitivity to energy. JAPAN - BETTER DATA, WORSE MARKET - Japan's Nikkei lost about 4% this week even as the economic data improved. - August manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.1, with new orders rising at the fastest pace since 2018. - Semiconductors and AI-related demand are helping drive the factory rebound. - Stronger growth also keeps the BOJ rate-hike discussion alive - good economy, potentially tougher market. BIG PHARMA - CHINA'S WEIGHT-LOSS GOLD RUSH - Lilly, Novo Nordisk and others are aggressively targeting China's obesity market, where obesity rates are projected to top 65% by 2030. - China bans direct prescription-drug advertising, so companies are using subway ads, gyms, influencers and "disease awareness" campaigns instead. - China's GLP-1 market could reach roughly 30 billion yuan over the next 5-7 years. - Interesting regulatory gray area: education campaigns that look a lot like drug advertising without actually naming the drug. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env: 'production', hosted_button_id: 'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src: 'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt: 'Donate with PayPal button', title: 'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!' } }).render('#donate-button-2'); THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for SpaceX (SPCX) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Had a lot of fun chatting again with my twin brother Dylan Patel.We went through lab economics over the next few years - the shift from inference to training as RSI draws near; and how Anthropic and OpenAI are on track to control most of the world's usable FLOPs within the next few years (because they can monetize compute better and thus outbid everyone).And then we discuss whether the >$10T of total AI capex we'll see by the end of the decade will cause a sovereign debt crisis, where hyperscaler debt raises interest rates, drives non-AI exposed countries into bankruptcy, and crashes non-AI equities.One question we weren't able to resolve is whether there's anything that can counter all the forces barrelling towards centralization in this industry - the economies of scale in training, the scarcity of compute, and eventually continual learning and RSI.Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.Sponsors* Grok Bot has been quite helpful with my search for a new editor. I created a recruiter bot and described the type of editor I was looking for. That bot then spun up a handful of subagents that combed through my emails and X DMs, read the end credits of various documentaries I like, and figured out who edits for some of my favorite YouTubers. It took all of those results, and then delivered me a shortlist of candidates that matched my criteria. Try Grok Bot for yourself at x.ai/bot* Antithesis lets you add time travel to your software testing toolkit. Since the Antithesis platform is fully deterministic, everything that happens inside of it is perfectly reproducible. So if your software crashes, you can rewind to the exact right moment, freeze time, and investigate. Or you can test different hypotheses by perturbing the system: kill a node or disable a feature, see what happens, then reset the trajectory and try something else. Learn more at antithesis.com/dwarkesh* Jane Street is hiring for two separate ML internships right now, one focused primarily on research and one focused on engineering. In both cases, interns are expected to contribute to real work, not contrived exercises: one common project is adapting a frontier LLM paper to financial markets, which tend to come with a ton of different gnarly challenges. Importantly, you don't need any finance background to apply. 2027 applications are open now at janestreet.com/dwarkeshTimestamps(00:00:00) – Two labs will soon control most of the world's compute(00:07:01) – $6 billion in fab capex enables $1t+ of end revenue(00:13:08) – Compute prices will rise if the labs outbid everyone(00:18:22) – Which layer will capture most of the surplus?(00:25:40) – What could slow down progress?(00:29:43) – Labs are shifting compute from inference to R&D(00:33:27) – China gets less than 10% of new compute, but its labs need less(00:48:48) – Will AI cause a sovereign debt crisis?(01:07:52) – Will the world's future workforce belong to a few companies? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dwarkesh.com

Etched just raised another $700 million at a $21 billion valuation, nearly doubling its valuation from around $10.3 billion in less than a month.But the headline valuation isn't the most interesting part.Etched is building specialized AI chips and inference systems designed to challenge the economics of Nvidia for one of the fastest-growing parts of AI compute: inference.And one of the most notable investors and customers is Jane Street.In this episode, we break down what Etched is actually building, why inference could become an enormous AI compute market, and whether a $21B valuation can be justified.⭐ Sponsored by Podcast10x - Podcasting agency for VCs - https://podcast10x.comKey topics we explore:– What Etched is actually building and why it is focused on AI inference– Why specialized ASICs could compete with general-purpose GPUs– How Etched's approach differs from Nvidia's GPU strategy– Why Jane Street is both an investor and early customer– Why Etched's valuation jumped from ~$10B to $21B in less than a month– The opportunity and risks in the rapidly growing inference market– Why specialized AI hardware could become increasingly important as AI workloads scale– Whether Etched can become a meaningful Nvidia competiton—or carve out a specialized market of its ownThe bigger question:As AI inference becomes a larger share of global compute, will specialized chips challenge Nvidia's dominance?For investors, the story isn't simply Nvidia vs. AMD anymore. The AI hardware ecosystem is becoming increasingly specialized—and the companies that can deliver more intelligence per dollar, per watt, and per second could capture enormous value.LINKSPrashant Choubey - ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/choubeysahab⁠Subscribe to VC10X newsletter - ⁠https://vc10x.beehiiv.com⁠Subscribe on YouTube - ⁠https://youtube.com/@VC10X⁠Subscribe on Apple Podcasts - ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/vc10x-investing-venture-capital-asset-management-private/id1632806986⁠Subscribe on Spotify - ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/7F7KEhXNhTx1bKTBFgzv3k?si=WgQ4ozMiQJ-6nowj6wBgqQ⁠VC10X website - ⁠https://vc10x.com⁠For sponsorship queries reach out to prashantchoubey3@gmail.comThis channel is for asset managers, allocators, and investors who want analysis that holds up—not headlines dressed as insight.Subscribe for weekly data-driven breakdowns of the forces reshaping capital markets.#Etched #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #AIChips #Inference #Nvidia #Semiconductors #JaneStreet #AIInfrastructure #ASIC #GPUs #TechStocks #Investing #VC10X #VentureCapital #Datacenters #MachineLearning #SiliconValley #Finance #Markets

Since portfolio companies often pivot and expand into competing markets, investors view occasional conflicts of interest as unavoidable for large VC firms. Also, Jane Street has installed Etched's first shipped AI cluster system, and was so impressed, it led another massive round, the startup says. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The markets are moving higher as the Treasury Department unveils a plan to relieve the recent bond market pressure.  Brian Sullivan and Kelly Evans are joined by Former Bridgewater Associates Chief Market Strategist, Rebecca Patterson, and Cboe Senior VP of Retail and Alt Investments, JJ Kinahan, to break down the latest Fed minutes and give their take on the state of the economy.  Later, the anchors sit down for an exclusive interview Etched CEO & Co-Founder, Gavin Uberti, to talk about his company's latest $700 million fundraising round led by Jane Street.  Tiger 21's Michael Sonnenfeldt also joins the program to reveal the key highlights from his company's Q2 allocation report which provides an overall picture of where the ultra-wealthy are investing their capital.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Iran conflict is doing more to crypto than most people realize. Oil pressure feeds inflation, inflation feeds rate hike odds, and September is now live with Warsh sounding hawkish. Layer on the midterm clock closing the window for CLARITY and a banking lobby working overtime, and you get the macro setup nobody's pricing. We break down how war, the Fed, and Washington are converging on crypto at the same time.~This episode is sponsored by Uphold~Uphold Debit Card ➜ https://bit.ly/UpholdXRPCard00:00 intro00:10 Sponsor: Uphold00:50 New Territory?01:20 Kevin McCarthy midterm outlook02:50 Midterms Odds03:30 Oil reaction04:30 Schiff confused05:00 Jane Street x MSTR05:30 DTCC 24/706:00 Monopoly killer letter06:45 Citi BTC Custody+07:20 Anthony Scaramucci: BTC catalyst is not CLARITY08:45 Mike Novagratz: Trump doesn't want CLARITY to pass10:00 Mike Selig10:45 WLFI Bank11:00 BitGo in trouble11:30 Anthony Scaramucci on WLFI bank12:45 Who would speak out?13:20 Austin Campbell: WLFI becomes public enemy #115:30 JP Morgan $1Trillion#Crypto #Bitcoin #iran ~Macro Headwinds vs Crypto Market

Jetzt bei Kraken anmelden und 30 EUR Bonus erhalten: https://bit.ly/kraken-bonusThemen & Timestamps:00:00 Begrüssung und Themenüberblick00:31 Genius Act: Umsetzung der US-Stablecoin-Regulierung02:22 Südkoreanische Bank setzt auf Ripple03:53 Jane Street hält Bitcoin im Milliardenwert06:10 Kraken kooperiert mit Anthropics Sicherheitsprojekt Glasswing

Vergeet de beursgang van SpaceX: die van Anthropic wordt nog veel groter. Het bedrijf groeide van amper een miljard dollar omzet eind 2024 naar makkelijk 50 miljard dollar in de eerste helft van dit jaar. En in 2028? Dan staat er 200 miljard dollar op de borden, zegt het bedrijf. Is dit net zulke science fiction als SpaceX in zijn prospectus zette? En hoe gevoelig is dit bedrijf eigenlijk voor concurrentie? Dat bespreken we in deze aflevering. Verder houden we bij BNR Beurs wel van een mooie comeback. BlackBerry is niet langer het telefoonbedrijf dat op sterven na dood was na de introductie van de iPhone. Het is een infrastructuurspeler geworden, met technologie die gebruikt wordt door robots, medische spelers en defensiebedrijven. En daarom werd het bedrijf het afgelopen jaar 2.5 keer zoveel waard. Boem! We bespreken hoe ze dat voor elkaar kregen. Natuurlijk moeten we ook nog even gluren bij de buren, nu het nog kan. Jane Street wil zijn eigen schuldpapier minder publiek maken, maar tot die tijd kunnen we meekijken hoe het bedrijf met de grootste handelswinsten op Wall Street eigenlijk zijn geld verdient. En wat blijkt? Het verloor tientallen miljarden aan Leopold Aschenbrenner, de jonge knaap en wonderbelegger wiens fonds vorige maand opbrandde in de atmosfeer. Tot slot die halfjaarcijfers van Ebusco. Als het niet lukt om een nieuwe kredietfaciliteit af te sluiten, en een grote aandeelhouder niet bijstort, denkt het bedrijf dat er materiële uitdagingen ontstaan om zijn verplichtingen na te komen. Lees: dan is het einde verhaal.Te gast: Niels Koerts van Stockwatch.nl en de podcast het Beurscafé.BNR Beurs is een journalistiek onafhankelijke productie, mede mogelijk gemaakt door Saxo. Over de makers: Jelle Maasbach is presentator van BNR Beurs en freelance financieel journalist. Zijn favoriete aandeel om over te praten is Disney, maar daar lijkt hij de enige in te zijn. Sinds de eerste uitzending van BNR Beurs is 'ie er bij. Maxim van Mil is presentator van BNR Beurs en journalist bij BNR, waar hij zich focust op de financiële markten en ontwikkelingen in de tech-wereld. Je krijgt hem het meest enthousiast als hij kan praten over ASML, of oer-Hollandse bedrijven zoals Ahold of ABN Amro. Jorik Simonides is presentator van BNR Beurs, economieredacteur en verslaggever bij BNR. Hij wordt er vooral blij van als het een keer níet over AI gaat. Je hoort hem ook in de BNR-podcast Moerdijk: dorp van de rekening. Milou Brand is presentator van BNR Beurs, freelance podcastmaker en columnist bij het Financieele Dagblad. Jochem Visser is presentator van BNR Beurs, maakt Beursnerd XL en is redacteur bij de podcast Onder Curatoren. Vraag hem naar obscure zaken op financiële markten en hij vertelt je waarom het eigenlijk nóg leuker is dan je al dacht. Over de podcast: Met BNR Beurs ga je altijd voorbereid de nieuwe beursdag in. We praten je in een kleine 25 minuten bij over alle laatste ontwikkelingen op de handelsvloer. We blijven niet alleen bij de AEX of Wall Street, maar vertellen je ook waar nog meer kansen liggen. En we houden het niet bij de cijfers, maar zoeken ook iedere dag voor je naar duiding van scherpe gasten en experts. Of je nu een ervaren belegger bent of net begint met je eerste stappen op de beurs, de podcast biedt waardevolle inzichten voor je beleggingsstrategie. Door de focus op zowel de korte termijn als de lange termijn, helpt BNR Beurs luisteraars om de ruis van de markt te scheiden van de essentie.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

2,5% Zinsen p.a. auf ein unbegrenztes Guthaben mit bis zu fünfmal der gesetzlichen Einlagensicherung*. Auch für Kinder. Das gibt's bei Scalable Capital. Mehr Infos hier. NVIDIA hat Milliarden in SpaceX und Intel. Berkshire stockt bei Delta auf, kauft Hausbauer und hat SpaceX. Silver Lake verhandelt Workday-Übernahme. Anthropic vervierzehnfacht sich. Nintendo verkauft 5 Mio. Pokémon-Spiele. Jane Street verliert Milliarden. Kesko (WKN: 884884) kontrolliert ein Drittel von Finnlands Lebensmittelmarkt. Sieht man an der Marge. Aber die Genossenschaft S-Gruppe macht Druck. Levi's (WKN: A2PFHR) hat den Umsatz zurück auf über 6 Mrd. $ gebracht. Premium-Jeans aus Japan, Beyond Yoga dreht ins Plus, Frauen-Segment wächst zweistellig. Dazu gratis WM-Werbung für eine Milliarde Impressions. Diesen Podcast vom 17.08.2026, 3:00 Uhr stellt dir die Podstars GmbH (Noah Leidinger) zur Verfügung. *Veränderlicher Zins auf unbegrenztes Guthaben. Konditionen sowie Guthabenverteilung auf scalable.capital/tagesgeld. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Vergeet de beursgang van SpaceX: die van Anthropic wordt nog veel groter. Het bedrijf groeide van amper een miljard dollar omzet eind 2024 naar makkelijk 50 miljard dollar in de eerste helft van dit jaar. En in 2028? Dan staat er 200 miljard dollar op de borden, zegt het bedrijf. Is dit net zulke science fiction als SpaceX in zijn prospectus zette? En hoe gevoelig is dit bedrijf eigenlijk voor concurrentie? Dat bespreken we in deze aflevering. Verder houden we bij BNR Beurs wel van een mooie comeback. BlackBerry is niet langer het telefoonbedrijf dat op sterven na dood was na de introductie van de iPhone. Het is een infrastructuurspeler geworden, met technologie die gebruikt wordt door robots, medische spelers en defensiebedrijven. En daarom werd het bedrijf het afgelopen jaar 2.5 keer zoveel waard. Boem! We bespreken hoe ze dat voor elkaar kregen. Natuurlijk moeten we ook nog even gluren bij de buren, nu het nog kan. Jane Street wil zijn eigen schuldpapier minder publiek maken, maar tot die tijd kunnen we meekijken hoe het bedrijf met de grootste handelswinsten op Wall Street eigenlijk zijn geld verdient. En wat blijkt? Het verloor tientallen miljarden aan Leopold Aschenbrenner, de jonge knaap en wonderbelegger wiens fonds vorige maand opbrandde in de atmosfeer. Tot slot die halfjaarcijfers van Ebusco. Als het niet lukt om een nieuwe kredietfaciliteit af te sluiten, en een grote aandeelhouder niet bijstort, denkt het bedrijf dat er materiële uitdagingen ontstaan om zijn verplichtingen na te komen. Lees: dan is het einde verhaal.Te gast: Niels Koerts van Stockwatch.nl en de podcast het Beurscafé.BNR Beurs is een journalistiek onafhankelijke productie, mede mogelijk gemaakt door Saxo. Over de makers: Jelle Maasbach is presentator van BNR Beurs en freelance financieel journalist. Zijn favoriete aandeel om over te praten is Disney, maar daar lijkt hij de enige in te zijn. Sinds de eerste uitzending van BNR Beurs is 'ie er bij. Maxim van Mil is presentator van BNR Beurs en journalist bij BNR, waar hij zich focust op de financiële markten en ontwikkelingen in de tech-wereld. Je krijgt hem het meest enthousiast als hij kan praten over ASML, of oer-Hollandse bedrijven zoals Ahold of ABN Amro. Jorik Simonides is presentator van BNR Beurs, economieredacteur en verslaggever bij BNR. Hij wordt er vooral blij van als het een keer níet over AI gaat. Je hoort hem ook in de BNR-podcast Moerdijk: dorp van de rekening. Milou Brand is presentator van BNR Beurs, freelance podcastmaker en columnist bij het Financieele Dagblad. Jochem Visser is presentator van BNR Beurs, maakt Beursnerd XL en is redacteur bij de podcast Onder Curatoren. Vraag hem naar obscure zaken op financiële markten en hij vertelt je waarom het eigenlijk nóg leuker is dan je al dacht. Over de podcast: Met BNR Beurs ga je altijd voorbereid de nieuwe beursdag in. We praten je in een kleine 25 minuten bij over alle laatste ontwikkelingen op de handelsvloer. We blijven niet alleen bij de AEX of Wall Street, maar vertellen je ook waar nog meer kansen liggen. En we houden het niet bij de cijfers, maar zoeken ook iedere dag voor je naar duiding van scherpe gasten en experts. Of je nu een ervaren belegger bent of net begint met je eerste stappen op de beurs, de podcast biedt waardevolle inzichten voor je beleggingsstrategie. Door de focus op zowel de korte termijn als de lange termijn, helpt BNR Beurs luisteraars om de ruis van de markt te scheiden van de essentie.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Get 30 Days of Merlin free at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠MerlinCrypto.Com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today, I'm breaking down one of the tensest waiting games Wall Street has played in months. Ahead of the CPI inflation print, the markets were practically frozen, but underneath the surface, absolute chaos is brewing. In this episode, I dive headfirst into the massive geopolitical oil whipsaw over the Strait of Hormuz and why crude prices are actively driving the war narrative. Then, we are talking about Nvidia—I explain Jensen Huang's emergency clarification on their eye-watering $500 billion AI financing backstop and break down their brand-new, ultra-efficient 'Nemotron 3.5 Lightning' model. But that's not all. I'm pulling back the curtain on crypto giant Wintermute's massive strategic invasion of traditional Wall Street as they secure a broker-dealer license to go toe-to-toe with Citadel and Jane Street. To wrap it all up, we travel to Switzerland to look at their mind-blowing 0.4% inflation rate and how they are pulling off the ultimate economic escape act.Oh, and if you're completely sick of manually tracking your crypto portfolio across twenty different apps and spreadsheets, I've got a total game-changer for you in today's episode: Merlin. You won't want to miss this one! Enjoy! Join the Age of Radio Discord | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://discord.gg/EeamD8WcjN⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow me on Goodpods ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://goodpods.app.link/usUyBZzhuNb⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Free Financial Consultation: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://forms.gle/B6nNZ2FbxbhESCHg9⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Red Wizard Gaming Society: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://discord.gg/9D43EszdUB⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠   DM if you are interested in Life Insurance! If you or someone you know has been struggling or in crisis please call or text 988 or chat ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠988lifeline.org⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  

A growing number of people claim being “test blind” to applicants' SAT scores is lowering standards at the University of California. Math Professor Zvezda Stankova is among the academics calling for SATs to be re-introduced to the admissions process.Jane Street intern applications (episode sponsor): https://jane-st.co/internships2027-NumberphilePodHere's the Open Letter signed by over 3000 people at UC (including five Nobel laureates, they are keen to point out): https://ucstudentsuccess.org/

This New York Times editorial gave the issue extra prominence: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/06/opinion/university-california-sat-testing-admissions.htmlThis LA Times comment pieces argues against re-introducing SATs to the process: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2026-07-08/chabria-column-uc-sat-act-admissionsNumberphile videos with Zvezda: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLt5AfwLFPxWIbAPK1oJgRIpe0sWiPKkQ4Numberphile Podcast interview with Zvezda about her life and career: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGbASf6W7SENumberphile is supported by Jane Street - https://www.numberphile.com/jane-streetWith thanks to the Ben Delo Foundation - https://delo.org/You can support Numberphile on Patreon - https://www.patreon.com/numberphileHere are our Patrons - https://www.numberphile.com/patronsNumberphile is created by Brady Haran

Ryan Greenblatt is the Chief Scientist at Redwood Research, where he works on technical AI safety research. He's also lead author on the "Alignment faking in Large Language Models", and is currently working on a third party investigation into the OpenAI/HuggingFace incident. In my opinion, he's one of the most interesting thinkers on the future of AI.Had him on to discuss/debate recursive self-improvement. This might be the most important question in the world right now – whether within a year or so of achieving human-level intelligence, you slingshot towards having 10s of billions of superintelligences, each of which is dramatically more competent than human experts across all fields.I've historically been skeptical of this possibility. My intuition has been that we will end up significantly bottlenecked by not only compute scaling but human expert data, which I think underlies most of the AI progress today.If, because of RSI, we got a jump as big as GPT-3 to a Mythos (i.e. 6 years of AI progress) within a single year of achieving AGI, then the thing we get there at the end of that year is definitively and wildly superhuman.We hashed it out, and I think Ryan made a pretty good case that this kind of speedup is plausible. FWIW, Ryan's median for when we automate AI R&D is 2031.We then discussed the alignment implications of this scenario. Who should these superintelligences be aligned to? In the future, our capacity to steward our votes and our capital, and to make sense of what's happening in the world, will all be titrated by superintelligences. And I worry that specs like the Claude Constitution are not shaping these ASIs to truly be my personal advocates and guardian angels.And can we get them aligned to anything in the first place? Ryan and I had a long debate about whether the kind of reward hacking we saw with the OAI/Hugging Face hack extrapolates to superintelligences that would team up to literally take over the world.The first piece of advice you get when you're learning to drive is that it will go much smoother if you look at the horizon instead of directly in front of your tires. And so it is with the trajectory of AI. Hope you enjoy!Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.Sponsors* Antithesis is a software testing platform that finds the failures no human or AI could ever anticipate. It runs thousands of copies of your code inside a fully deterministic computer, injecting faults and steering each trajectory toward the most insidious bugs. This lets you find critical issues in minutes rather than waiting months for your users to uncover them. Learn more at antithesis.com/dwarkesh* Jane Street's back with a new puzzle. They designed an ASIC and sent me the final masks… but they didn't tell me what the chip actually does. So that's the challenge: reverse engineer the circuit and figure out the chip's purpose. Jane Street has a bunch of swag ready to send to the most creative solutions, and they're also planning to feature the top write-ups in a blog post. Download the files and get started at janestreet.com/dwarkesh* Cursor and SpaceX recently released Grok 4.5, and I've been surprised by just how good the model is. For example, when I tested it against Fable and Sol on a bunch of AI governance questions, all three models gave substantially the same answers, but Grok was faster, more concise, and cheaper. Grok 4.6 is coming soon, but in the meantime, you can try 4.5 at cursor.com/dwarkeshTimestamps(00:00:00) – Is AI R&D verifiable enough to unlock recursive self-improvement?(00:16:52) – Is AI progress bottlenecked by human expert data?(00:34:02) – Flat token prices suggest scaling has been slow(00:39:47) – Skills AI can't train on: does it even need them?(00:48:07) – Aligned to whom?(01:09:18) – Recent incidents of AIs colluding and deceiving humans(01:19:38) – What could possibly go wrong? A concrete scenario(01:48:02) – From reward hacking to takeover Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

Get 30 Days of Merlin free at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠MerlinCrypto.Com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today, I'm breaking down one of the tensest waiting games Wall Street has played in months. Ahead of the CPI inflation print, the markets were practically frozen, but underneath the surface, absolute chaos is brewing. In this episode, I dive headfirst into the massive geopolitical oil whipsaw over the Strait of Hormuz and why crude prices are actively driving the war narrative. Then, we are talking about Nvidia—I explain Jensen Huang's emergency clarification on their eye-watering $500 billion AI financing backstop and break down their brand-new, ultra-efficient 'Nemotron 3.5 Lightning' model. But that's not all. I'm pulling back the curtain on crypto giant Wintermute's massive strategic invasion of traditional Wall Street as they secure a broker-dealer license to go toe-to-toe with Citadel and Jane Street. To wrap it all up, we travel to Switzerland to look at their mind-blowing 0.4% inflation rate and how they are pulling off the ultimate economic escape act.Oh, and if you're completely sick of manually tracking your crypto portfolio across twenty different apps and spreadsheets, I've got a total game-changer for you in today's episode: Merlin. You won't want to miss this one! Enjoy! Join the Age of Radio Discord | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://discord.gg/EeamD8WcjN⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow me on Goodpods ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://goodpods.app.link/usUyBZzhuNb⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Free Financial Consultation: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://forms.gle/B6nNZ2FbxbhESCHg9⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Red Wizard Gaming Society: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://discord.gg/9D43EszdUB⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠   DM if you are interested in Life Insurance! If you or someone you know has been struggling or in crisis please call or text 988 or chat ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠988lifeline.org⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  

What took Situational Awareness from a $45bn hedge fund down to a $10bn hedge fund in less than a month? Two years ago Leopold Aschenbrenner was a researcher at OpenAI who wrote a 165-page essay about superintelligence. Since then, he raised $225 million seed funding from Stripe co-founders, Jane Street, and GitHub's CEO, which he proceeded to turn into an AI hedge fund called Situational Awareness worth about $45bn as of the beginning of July. He did this with no prior trading experience, 4-5x leverage on a concentrated bet in AI names. By Thursday the fund was down to about $10 billion. Neither Millennium nor Jane Street were willing to step in to catch a falling knife. Ultimately Citadel stepped in to buy the flagging portfolio. Here is the crazy part though: Aschenbrenner wasn't wrong. He is reportedly still up around 80% on the year and "he only sold enough to cover his losses". But what caused a massive drop in the global markets was that a prime broker does not care what happens in 2030. And because half the market was crowded into the exact same names, his exit was everyone else's problem. SK Hynix and CoreWeave cratered. Korea's Kospi tripped circuit breakers. Over a million retail accounts got margin called. All of July's violence, the moves that had traders questioning their own sanity, was one book being taken apart in public. So the question this episode actually asks is whether this was one overlevered fund or the first crack in the AI trade itself. Because the market's answer this week was a shrug. Microsoft just posted the largest single-day market cap gain in history and credit spreads snapped back tighter, as if the whole thing was somebody else's accident. Kristen and Jen have both traded through cycles that ended this way, and they have seen exactly how comforting that shrug feels right before it stops being true.

If markets no longer price value, then what's actually setting the price?Raise Your Average hosts Pierre Daillie and Adam Butler sit down with Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager at Simplify Asset Management, for a deep dive into the passive investing thesis he has spent over a decade researching, defending, and stress testing.Green argues that trillions of dollars flowing automatically into index funds via 401(k)s, RSPs, and defined contribution plans have created a market where price no longer reflects judgment about value. He walks through the mechanics of the "inelastic market hypothesis," the outsized role of leveraged and levered sector ETFs like SOXL, the Grossman-Stiglitz framework and why its core assumptions no longer hold, and why active and value investing have become structurally disadvantaged in the current regime.The conversation also covers the 2026 macro backdrop of a US-Iran conflict, an oil shock, and equities at all-time highs despite it, the risk of a passive "end stage," and where genuine diversification (like managed futures) still fits. It's a candid, occasionally combative, and consistently illuminating discussion for anyone trying to understand why markets are behaving in ways that don't match historical patterns.Chapters00:00 – Introduction: has the market stopped pricing risk?08:00 – Welcome to Michael Green; setting up 2026's contradictions09:00 – The 50-year shift into "all equities all the time"10:00 – How ETF mechanics reduce market elasticity12:00 – Why pod shops and passive flows ignore fundamentals entirely13:00 – Leveraged sector ETFs (SOXL) aren't really passive15:00 – Echoes of the dot-com bubble: 1999 vs. today18:00 – Circular funding and Mag Seven earnings41:00 – Momentum, autocorrelation, and portfolio construction under passive dominance44:00 – Pushback from the Financial Times and mainstream finance media44:30 – Malkiel's Paradox of Skill and the Grossman-Stiglitz framework, unpacked47:00 – Why the "equal endowment" assumption is false49:00 – The large-stack player sets the terms of the market50:00 – The Inelastic Market Hypothesis (Gabaix and Koijen) and Green's updated multiplier estimates52:00 – Facilitators vs. correctors: why Citadel and Jane Street are thriving55:00 – The Newtonian vs. quantum physics analogy for market scale57:00 – GameStop, Michael Saylor, and self-liquidating vehicles1:13:00 – Market cap concentration data and transaction cost asymmetries1:15:00 – Why cap weighting has flipped from historically losing to structurally winning1:17:00 – Stein's Law and the coming correction1:18:00 – Why value investing is a "negative selection criteria" right now1:21:00 – Where active investors can still add value: becoming facilitators1:22:00 – Managed futures as liquidity provision and portfolio ballast1:25:00 – Capacity constraints and closing thoughts#MichaelGreen #PassiveInvesting #RaiseYourAverage #SimplifyAssetManagement #ETFs #IndexFunds #MarketStructure #InelasticMarketHypothesis #ActiveManagement #ValueInvesting #ManagedFutures #Macro #InvestingPodcast #StockMarket #FinancePodcast #WallStreet #PortfolioManagement #MarketBubble #AdvisorAnalyst

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Leila Clark, founder of Stardrift and formerly a software engineer at Jane Street, to discuss her essay "What Are You Getting Paid In?"  They cover how a Jane Street manager staffed the firm's least lucrative corner by paying people in culture, why Ken Griffin is worth roughly fifty Taylor Swifts, and how a longtime Google product manager quietly ends up with Grammy-winner money. The conversation ranges from academia's brutal tournament structure and YC as a script to founderdom to the one currency Taylor Swift holds that Ken Griffin's $50 billion buys only awkwardly: a restaurant reservation anywhere in New York.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/what-youre-actually-getting-paid-in-with-leila-clark/ –Presenting Sponsors: Mercury, Chainguard & MongoDB Complex Systems is presented by Mercury—radically better banking for founders. Mercury's new feature Command brings an LLM directly into your banking interface, so checking balances, finding invoices, or sending a wire is as easy as asking. Apply online in minutes at https://mercury.com/.If attackers are using AI to weaponize code faster than any team can review it, your scanners won't save you. Chainguard builds libraries and container images from source, verified all the way down, with near-zero CVEs and zero malware. Build safely at https://www.chainguard.dev/.What's the point of building faster with AI if your database can't keep up? MongoDB's native data model mirrors the language LLMs already speak. Ship at the speed of AI while staying ACID compliant at Fortune 500 scale. Start building at https://mongodb.com/ai.–Links:What are you getting paid in: https://www.approachwithalacrity.com/p/what-are-you-getting-paid-in –Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:23) What are you getting paid in?(03:16) Scripts, teacher figures, and hitting capitalism(08:18) The academia trap(11:08) Paying people in culture: Jane Street's back office(14:03) Ken Griffin vs. Taylor Swift(16:53) Learning about finance by osmosis (or not)(20:44) Sponsors: Mercury | Chainguard(23:46) Musician money vs. Google money(30:03) Keeping up with the Joneses and the meritocratic ladder(33:12) YC as a script to founderdom(36:19) What entrepreneurship pays you in(39:12) Gratitude, culture, and quirky preferences(40:11) Sponsor: MongoDB(43:48) Does winning this script look like winning to you?(48:29) Don't end the week with nothing(51:06) Fame and living in bubbles(56:57) Restaurant reservations as a currency(1:02:57) Where to find Leila(01:03:35) Wrap

Always so much fun to chat with Grant.AI has been making much faster progress in math than in other fields. As a result, mathematics is showing us, very concretely, what AI progress in other fields will look like. Even within mathematics, there's a jagged landscape. What does it look like?What is the nature of the most important conceptual breakthroughs in the history of mathematics, and how different are they from what AIs are currently able to do?Does AI (on net) increase or decrease human understanding of the field?How big is the overhang from having AIs systematically try to connect ideas already in the literature?And what advice does Grant have for aspiring mathematicians, coders, and other students who are passionate about fields that are being most transformed upon by AI?Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.Sponsors* Gemini 3.5 Live Translate is what I wished I'd had on my last trip to China. It detects more than 70 languages and translates them in near real-time… and it preserves your original pacing and intonation. If you're building an app that needs live translation, you should check out Gemini 3.5 Live Translate. Get started at ai.studio/live* Cursor's harness lets me use models for a huge range of tasks at the podcast. For example, Cursor cuts out the ads from each episode I produce so I can post them on Bilibili. It also helps me prep for interviews — I have a repo full of books and papers that Cursor sorts through to find the exact right file for any given question. Try Cursor yourself at cursor.com/dwarkesh* Jane Street sponsors 3Blue1Brown, so Grant has gotten to spend a lot of time with various Jane Streeters. He actually just recorded an interview with a few of them, so when we sat down for this episode, he told me about some of the things he learned, like how Jane Street keeps their role definitions fuzzy to make sure their people keep learning and growing. Go check out Grant's full interview at 3b1b.co/janestreetTimestamps(00:00:00) – AI is discovering new proofs. Is that AGI?(00:11:32) – The verification loop on conceptual breakthroughs can be a century long(00:26:12) – Will we understand an AI proof of the Riemann hypothesis?(00:38:08) – Can AI find the hidden bridges between fields?(00:53:48) – Why real-world tasks don't fit into RL environments(01:07:07) – Good writing requires theory of mind that AI still lacks(01:16:02) – Why learning will still depend on human curation Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

Join ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Downtown Josh Brown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Michael Batnick⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for another episode of What Are Your Thoughts and see what they have to say about: Micron earnings, the sudden selloff in South Korea's red-hot stock market, whether we're entering the late stages of the bull market, prediction markets coming to Wall Street, Jane Street's AI ambitions, the Magnificent Seven breakdown, Alan Greenspan's legacy, and the growing bull case for Meta. This episode is sponsored by Neuberger and ClearBridge Investments. Explore NBSD–including all risks and important information–at ⁠⁠https://www.neuberger.com/nbsd⁠⁠ Rising geopolitical tensions, continued market uncertainty, stocks backed by can offer more predictable cash flows as volatility increases. Visit ⁠⁠https://www.clearbridge.com/ ⁠⁠to learn more. Sign up for ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Compound Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and never miss out! Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://instagram.com/thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ritholtz Wealth Management⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Had Ada Palmer back on – this time to talk about Machiavelli, perhaps the most misunderstood thinker of all time.Machiavelli cut his teeth as a high-level diplomat for Florence, a position from which he got to closely observe the most important rulers in Europe at the time, including the ones who were on the path to destroying his dearly beloved Florence.In 1513 the Medici retook control of Florence and, wrongly suspecting Machiavelli of participating in a coup attempt, fired, tortured, and exiled him.Machiavelli could have left exile and worked for any number of different principalities that would have been eager to make use of his talents.Instead, he decided to rot in the countryside and compile his career's lessons about power, politics, and human nature into a book he dedicated to the very man whose new regime had tortured and exiled him, Lorenzo di Piero de' Medici.But at least the Medici were in a position to use his insights to defend Florence. Machiavelli the patriot did not want any other hands to touch these books, because those hands, armed further with these lessons, might pose an existential danger to Florence.The closest modern analogy, at least as Machiavelli would have seen it, would be Szilard's letter warning FDR about the possibility of a nuclear fission bomb.What were those insights? And how were they inspired by Machiavelli's dangerous diplomatic missions all across Europe, and his extensive reading of antiquity? Watch this episode with Ada Palmer to find out!By the way, Ada is launching a new podcast which I'm very excited about. The first season will be about Machiavelli - a perfect way to dive deeper into the topics we discussed in this episode. Subscribe at Beforecast's website to be notified of the first episode, subscribe on YouTube, follow her on Patreon, and if you want even more Ada, check out her FixTheNews Podcast episode, and check out her books and more.Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.Sponsors* Cursor recently saved one of my podcast recordings. When a video file from a shoot came out corrupted, I pointed Cursor at it: it recovered the footage on its own, tracking down the right reference file from the file's metadata and realigning the out-of-sync audio. My whole team now uses Cursor for everyday tasks, not just coding. Get started at cursor.com/dwarkesh* Jane Street's hiring process has been going viral on Twitter lately. The memes are pretty funny, but I wanted to see what their interviews were actually like. So I had Ricson, one of Jane Street's ML researchers, walk me through a retired puzzle: he gave me an image dataset where 50% of the files had been corrupted – I had to figure out how to recover them. If you're interested in these sorts of puzzles, you can find Jane Street's open roles at janestreet.com/dwarkesh* Crusoe is turning the AI datacenter buildout into an industrial process. At their massive Colorado factory, they assemble Spark units, modular datacenters with power, cooling, and fire suppression built in. They also manufacture specific components in-house to skip the longest lead times. Crusoe has experience running these Spark units on a range of energy sources, including solar and used EV batteries, ensuring they don't get bottlenecked by grid availability. Learn more at crusoe.ai/dwarkeshTimestamps(00:00:00) – How Florence bargained with Cesare Borgia for survival(00:15:08) – Machiavelli's analytical innovations(00:23:58) – Why popes became warlords(00:36:13) – Why the common people demanded nepotism(00:47:57) – Cesare Borgia brought terror to rulers and justice to the people(00:57:55) – Art as a proxy for war(01:06:41) – Florence, a city famous in hell(01:15:57) – The Prince was a job application to Machiavelli's torturers(01:41:39) – During the Renaissance, original ideas had to be couched in antiquity(01:50:44) – Why copyright began with the Inquisition(02:02:12) – Machiavelli wasn't Machiavellian Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

About ZviMy history with Zvi Mowshowitz goes back over 20 years to our days as teammates on the Magic Pro Tour, where we won a Grand Prix and top-8ed a Pro Tour together. After his competitive gaming career and a stint designing games at Wizards of the Coast and heading up a Cyberpunk TCG design team in Denver, Zvi took his unique systems-thinking mind into high-stakes finance. He managed risk as a professional bookmaker in sports betting, traded crypto for a hedge fund, and worked quantitative trading desks at firms like Jane Street. Today, he's focused his incredible intellect on the world of artificial intelligence, writing five times a week at his blog, Don't Worry About the Vase, tracking the breakneck evolution of large language models and the critical safety challenge of AI alignment. In this episode, we dive deep into the math of pattern recognition, our wild days on the Pro Tour, the high-stress realities of trading, and how to navigate the massive societal shifts coming with AI. Zvi delivers insights on rationality and adaptability that will resonate with anyone trying to think clearly in a rapidly changing world. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit justingarydesign.substack.com/subscribe

Economics of AGI episode w Alex Imas and Phil Trammell.There's a bunch of important questions about how we deal with AI that only economics can answer.What is the optimal way to tax and redistribute the wealth that will be generated? How should countries not in the AI supply chain index into the gains? Is there any world where inequality doesn't explode?It might seem like these questions have obvious answers, but the first thing economics teaches you is that your intuitions can often be entirely wrong.It was very helpful to chat through these things with Alex and Phil.Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.SponsorsJane Street invests heavily in turning smart people into exceptional researchers and engineers. In addition to their apprenticeship model, Jane Street runs lectures and bootcamps in their in-office classrooms -- managers clear their teams' schedules to encourage attendance. If you'd like to work at a place that takes learning this seriously, Jane Street is hiring. Check out their open roles at janestreet.com/dwarkeshGoogle's Gemini Omni has incredible video editing capabilities -- you can upload a video and have Omni change the background, adjust lighting, or add specific elements. But Omni is also a preview of how future frontier models will be trained -- fully multimodal on both input and output. You can try it yourself in the Gemini app at gemini.google or in Flow at flow.googleCursor used targeted RL with textual feedback to help train their Composer 2.5 model. One of their researchers, Sasha Rush, gave me an impromptu blackboard lecture to explain how this form of on-policy self-distillation works -- I posted the full thing on X. If you want to try Composer 2.5, go to cursor.com/dwarkeshTimestamps(00:00:00) – Will capital share increase?(00:19:36) – Messy Middle scenario(00:25:57) – How to tax and redistribute AI wealth(00:30:02) – Why demand collapse is unlikely(00:39:26) – Human employees would be hard to integrate into the machine economy(00:43:08) – What if some humans (or AIs) value wealth accumulation intrinsically?(01:01:28) – What should developing countries do? Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

Oil is surging toward $100. Inflation fears are back. The Middle East remains highly unstable. Yet Wall Street trading desks are making record billions and major banks are raising their S&P 500 targets above 8,000.In this episode of the Market Maker Podcast, Anthony Cheung and Piers Curran break down how geopolitical volatility is creating huge profits for banks like J.P. Morgan and Bank of America through market making, flow trading and hedging strategies.They also explore whether the AI rally is becoming another dot-com bubble, why semiconductor stocks continue to explode higher and why firms like NVIDIA, Micron and Anthropic are now at the centre of global markets.The conversation covers oil markets, inflation, Fed policy, AI infrastructure spending, hedge fund trading mechanics, risk management and the future of the AI supercycle, explained in a way that is accessible for students, investors and anyone interested in financial markets.The episode also finishes with practical recommendations for free macro and finance resources to help students improve commercial awareness and stay ahead of market trends.(00:00) Oil, Iran & Market Chaos(05:40) Inflation, Rates & The Fed(08:07) Why Wall Street Is Printing Money(13:00) Flow Trading Explained(18:50) How Banks Hedge Risk(23:15) Jane Street & Quant Trading(31:13) Why Stocks Keep Rising(32:20) AI Bubble or Supercycle?(37:56) The Most Important AI Company(40:10) SpaceX's $28 Trillion Bet(44:19) Goldman's 8,000 S&P Call(47:10) Best Free Macro Resources*****Free daily Market Maker newsletterConnect with Anthony on LinkedIn

Matt and Nic are back with another week of news and deals. In this episode:  Are AI datacenters better or worse for the environment than Bitcoin miners? AI is not responsible for your power bills Why AI could actually drive down residential power prices Is AI less popular than crypto ever was? The negative societal effects of tech companies staying private for longer We analyze the SpaceX S1 OpenAI solved one of the Erdos problems The US government is taking equity stakes in quantum computers Jane Street is still dealing with the Terra fallout Prime Trust is trying to claw back assets from Swan The SEC has questions about tokenized equities Content mentioned in this episode: Nic on Substack, AI is not hiking your electricity bill - yet

New blackboard lecture with Reiner Pope: how do chips actually work - starting with basic logic gates, and working up to why GPUs, TPUs, FPGAs, and the human brain each look the way they do.Reiner is CEO of MatX, a new chip startup (full disclosure - I'm an angel investor). He was previously at Google, where he worked on software efficiency, compilers, and TPU architecture.Watch this one on YouTube so you can see the chalkboard. Read the transcript.Sponsors* Crusoe was one of only five GPU clouds that made the gold tier in SemiAnalysis' most recent ClusterMAX report. Gold-tier providers like Crusoe delivered 5-15% lower TCO than silver-tier clouds, even with identical GPU pricing. This is because optimizations like early fault detection and rapid node replacement don't necessarily show up in the sticker price, but still matter a ton in the real world. Learn more at crusoe.ai/dwarkesh* Cursor is where I do most of my work—from reading research papers to visualizing technical concepts to coding up internal tools for the podcast. Most recently, I used it to build two different review interfaces for my essay contest, one that anonymizes submissions for scoring and another that lets me see applicants' essays next to their resumes and websites. Whatever you're working on, you should try doing it in Cursor. Get started at cursor.com/dwarkesh* Jane Street let me ask Ron Minsky and Dan Pontecorvo, two senior Jane Streeters, a bunch of questions about how they use AI. We discussed everything from the types of models they're training to how they think about the future of trading to why they're more bullish than ever on hiring technical talent. You can watch the full conversation and learn more about their open positions at janestreet.com/dwarkeshTimestamps00:00:00 – Building a multiply-accumulate from logic gates00:16:31 – Muxes and the cost of data movement00:26:10 – How systolic arrays work00:39:11 – Clock cycles and pipeline registers00:51:51 – FPGAs vs ASICs01:03:25 – Cache vs scratchpad01:07:27 – Why CPU cores are much bigger than GPU cores01:12:00 – Brains vs chips01:15:33 – A GPU is just a bunch of tiny TPUs Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

Did Jane Street front-run the Terra collapse? Newly unsealed court filings allege Jane Street used a private Telegram backchannel with Terraform Labs insiders to dump $192 million of UST before the stablecoin's 2022 collapse. The firm then allegedly made $134 million shorting Terra. Jane Street denies the claims. CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie hosts "CoinDesk Daily." - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie. “CoinDesk Daily” is produced by Jennifer Sanasie and edited by Victor Chen.

Joining Blake and Tracey this week is a very special guest — Kate Cooper, CEO of OKX Australia. Kate's spent more than a decade across media, financial services, and digital assets, and has become one of the most respected voices in the Australian crypto industry.There's a lot to cover this week, so let's get straight into it:

Eric Jang walks through how to build AlphaGo from scratch, but with modern AI tools.Sometimes you understand the future better by stepping backward. AlphaGo is still the cleanest worked example of the primitives of intelligence: search, learning from experience, and self-play. You have to go back to 2017 to get insight into how the more general AIs of the future might learn.Once he explained how AlphaGo works, it gave us the context to have a discussion about how RL works in LLMs and how it could work better – naive policy gradient RL has to figure out which of the 100k+ tokens in your trajectory actually got you the right answer, while AlphaGo's MCTS suggests a strictly better action every single move, giving you a training target that sidesteps the credit assignment problem. The way humans learn is surely closer to the second.Eric also kickstarted an Autoresearch loop on his project. And it was very interesting to discuss which parts of AI research LLMs can already automate pretty well (implementing and running experiments, optimizing hyperparameters) and which they still struggle with (choosing the right question to investigate next, escaping research dead ends). Informative to all the recent discussion about when we should expect an intelligence explosion, and what it would look like from the inside.Watch on YouTube. Read the transcript.And check out the flashcards I wrote to retain the insights.Sponsors* Cursor‘s agent SDK let me build a pipeline to generate flashcards for this episode. For each card, I had an agent read the transcript, ingest blackboard screenshots, generate an SVG visual, and run everything through a critic. A durable agent is much better at this kind of work than a chain of LLM calls, and Cursor's SDK made it easy. Check out the cards at flashcards.dwarkesh.com and get started with the SDK at cursor.com/dwarkesh* Jane Street gave me a real deep-dive tour of one of their datacenters. I got to ask a bunch of questions to Ron Minsky, who co-leads Jane Street's tech group, and Dan Pontecorvo, who runs Jane Street's physical engineering team. They were willing to literally pull up the floorboards and take out racks to explain how everything works. Check out the full tour at janestreet.com/dwarkeshTimestamps(00:00:00) – Basics of Go(00:08:17) – Monte Carlo Tree Search(00:32:04) – What the neural network does(01:00:33) – Self-play(01:25:38) – Alternative RL approaches(01:45:47) – Why doesn't MCTS work for LLMs(02:01:09) – Off-policy training(02:12:02) – RL is even more information inefficient than you thought(02:22:16) – Automated AI researchers Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

David Reich is back.He and collaborator Ali Akbari just published a paper that overturns a long-standing consensus about human evolution — that natural selection has been dormant in our species since the agricultural revolution.By scaling ancient DNA sequencing and developing a new statistical method, they found that selection has actually sped up.Selection went especially bonkers during the Bronze Age (around 3,000 years ago).That's when gene frequencies for everything from immune function to body fat to intelligence were most in flux.Over the last 10,000 years, selection pushed the genetic predictor of cognitive performance up by roughly a full standard deviation — most of it between 4,000 and 2,000 years ago.After we finished recording, David sketched out on a whiteboard his new heretical model about who the Neanderthals really were. Luckily, I took out my iPhone and managed to record it.He thinks the standard story (that Neanderthals are some separate archaic lineage we interbred with a little) just doesn't fit the evidence. Instead, he proposes that Neanderthals are essentially genetically-swamped modern humans.A small population somewhere around the Caucasus invented Middle Stone Age technology roughly 300,000 years ago and expanded outward. The ones that moved into Europe interbred with local archaic humans, got genetically swamped, and became Neanderthals. The same expansion went into Africa, met much more diverged archaic Africans, and that mixture became us.This means Neanderthals and modern humans share the same cultural ancestry — the only difference is which archaic humans they mixed with afterward.David is a brilliant and rigorous scholar. It was a real delight to learn from him again.Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.Sponsors* Cursor was super useful as I prepped for this episode. Whenever I had a question, I'd have Cursor kick off a few different models simultaneously and then compare their responses. I found that this led to better results than I could get out of any individual LLM. If you've only used Cursor for coding, you should try using it for research. Check it out at cursor.com/dwarkesh* Jane Street uses an internal currency called “hive bucks” to allocate compute through a real-time auction – and anyone can change anyone else's bids or even kill their jobs! Everyone just trusts each other to act in the firm's best interest, which is what lets the system work in the first place. If this weird and high-trust culture sounds like your kind of thing, Jane Street's hiring at janestreet.com/dwarkesh* Crusoe's ML infra team built fastokens, an open-source tokenizer that delivers a ~9x speedup over Hugging Face and up to 40% faster time-to-first token – on real production workloads! Crusoe achieved these results by parallelizing things and using some clever engineering to handle duplicates without cross-thread coordination. Learn more at crusoe.ai/dwarkeshTimestamps(00:00:00) – Ancient DNA suggests strong selection over last 10,000 years(00:15:45) – Natural selection intensified during the Bronze Age(00:35:02) – Why didn't evolution max out intelligence?(00:57:21) – Evolution is limited by time, not population size(01:09:02) – Why no farming before the Ice Age?(01:17:13) – The Neanderthal puzzle David can't stop thinking about(01:54:10) – The methodology behind this breakthrough Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

GameStop is offering $56B to acquire eBay… the deal is crazy, the logic is not.Kellogg brings back cereal box toys for the 1st time in decades… The 100-year-old growth hack.The nerdiest biz ever just made the most $$$ in Wall Street history… Jane Street's math whiz.Plus, cinco de mayo on taco tuesday? As avocados prices are down 20%?!$GME $EBAY $KNEWSLETTER:https://tboypod.com/newsletter OUR 2ND SHOW:Want more business storytelling from us? Check our weekly deepdive show, The Best Idea Yet: The untold origin story of the products you're obsessed with. Listen for free to The Best Idea Yet: https://wondery.com/links/the-best-idea-yet/NEW LISTENERSFill out our 2 minute survey: https://qualtricsxm88y5r986q.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_dp1FDYiJgt6lHy6GET ON THE POD: Submit a shoutout or fact: https://tboypod.com/shoutouts SOCIALS:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tboypod TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tboypodYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@tboypod Linkedin (Nick): https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-martell/Linkedin (Jack): https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-crivici-kramer/Anything else: https://tboypod.com/ About Us: The daily pop-biz news show making today's top stories your business. Formerly known as Robinhood Snacks, The Best One Yet is hosted by Jack Crivici-Kramer & Nick Martell. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

nFactorial Intelligence - еженедельные новости из мира стартапов и ИИ    В очередном выпуске nFactorial Intelligence мы подробно разбираем громкое судебное разбирательство между Илоном Маском и руководством OpenAI, восстанавливая историческую хронологию их отношений и анализируя возможные последствия для всей технологической индустрии. Мы также говорим о том, как устроены собеседования в одной из самых прибыльных компаний мира Jane Street, решая классическую задачу на математическое ожидание с игральным кубиком. Вы узнаете, почему бывшие участники школьных олимпиад становятся миллиардерами в тысячи раз чаще остальных, и как топовые технические директора бросают руководящие посты ради позиции рядового разработчика в Anthropic. Значительная часть выпуска посвящена внутренней кухне Y Combinator. Мы обсуждаем главные инсайты с недавнего Demo Day, разбираем секрет успешного десятиминутного интервью для фаундеров и изучаем свежие запросы на стартапы от легендарного акселератора. Заодно выясняем, почему рекрутинг в успешные компании так сильно похож на ранние венчурные инвестиции. Не обошли стороной и стратегические вопросы бизнеса. Разбираем теорию ограничений на примере процессов команды MrBeast, вспоминаем историю создания формата Stories в Snapchat вместе с Эваном Шпигелем и обсуждаем, можно ли покупать первых пользователей для своего продукта. Отдельное внимание уделяем экспансии китайского автогиганта BYD и тому, почему от него в панике европейские производители. В дополнение к новостям мирового рынка, мы анонсируем старт нашего летнего лагеря nFactorial Teens для подростков, делимся отрывками из свежего подкаста с создателем системы Сергек Асетом Ахметовым и рассказываем о профессиональных успехах наших выпускников. В финале затрагиваем философию жизни: от размышлений нейробиолога Роберта Сапольски о природе стресса до пугающей и отрезвляющей визуализации скоротечности времени от Тима Урбана. Рекомендации от nFactorial  nFactorial Teens: 2-недельный летний лагерь по вайб-кодингу для школьников в Алматы (11-16 лет). Цель: создание своего оригинального веб-приложения или веб-игры - https://courses.nfactorial.school/teens Подписаться на еженедельную email-рассылку nFactorial Weekly - https://nfactorial-school.kit.com/ Ищем менеджера рекламы в Meta/Google - https://nfactorialschool.typeform.com/to/ArVYTH31

Did a very different format with Reiner Pope - a blackboard lecture where he walks through how frontier LLMs are trained and served.It's shocking how much you can deduce about what the labs are doing from a handful of equations, public API prices, and some chalk.It's a bit technical, but I encourage you to hang in there – it's really worth it.There are less than a handful of people who understand the full stack of AI, from chip design to model architecture, as well as Reiner. It was a real delight to learn from him.Recommend watching this one on YouTube so you can see the chalkboard.Reiner is CEO of MatX, a new chip startup (full disclosure - I'm an angel investor). He was previously at Google, where he worked on software efficiency, compilers, and TPU architecture.Download markdown of transcript here to chat with an LLM.Wrote up some flashcards and practice problems to help myself retain what Reiner taught. Hope it's helpful to you too!Sponsors* Jane Street needs constant access to incredibly low-latency compute. I recently asked one of their engineers, Clark, to talk me through how they meet these demands. Our conversation—which touched on everything from FPGAs to liquid cooling—was extremely helpful as I prepped to interview Reiner. You can watch the full discussion and explore Jane Street's open roles at janestreet.com/dwarkesh* Google's Gemma 4 is the first open model that's let me shut off the internet and create a fully disconnected “focus machine”. This is because Gemma is small enough to run on my laptop, but powerful enough to actually be useful. So, to prep for this interview, I downloaded Reiner's scaling book, disconnected from wifi, and used Gemma to help me break down the material. Check it out at goo.gle/Gemma4* Cursor helped me turn some notes I took on how gradients flow during large-scale pretraining into a great animation. At first, I wasn't sure the best way to visualize the concept, but Cursor's Composer 2 Fast model let me iterate on different ideas almost instantaneously. You can check out the animation in my recent blog post. And if you have something to visualize yourself, go to cursor.com/dwarkeshTimestamps(00:00:00) – How batch size affects token cost and speed(00:32:09) – How MoE models are laid out across GPU racks(00:47:12) – How pipeline parallelism spreads model layers across racks(01:03:37) – Why Ilya said, “As we now know, pipelining is not wise.”(01:18:59) – Because of RL, models may be 100x over-trained beyond Chinchilla-optimal(01:33:02) – Deducing long context memory costs from API pricing(02:04:02) – Convergent evolution between neural nets and cryptography Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

Bitcoin holds near $77K–$78K with strong ETF inflows of $2.1 billion over eight days, while Western Union prepares to launch a Solana-based stablecoin and “Stable Card” next month. France charged 88 people in a major wrench attack crackdown, Tether froze $344 million in USDT, and Morgan Stanley launched a money market fund for stablecoin issuers. Strategy and Metaplanet continue corporate Bitcoin buying, and Jane Street denied Terra-related insider trading claims. Markets remain cautious but supported by institutional flows and new product launches. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

"Nothing has structurally changed since Bitcoin hit all-time highs — the spring is coiled to the upside." Coinbase executive John D'Agostino sits down with Scott Melker to break down how Bitcoin price discovery really works, why the Jane Street manipulation story is laughable, and why Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs entering Bitcoin is a bigger deal than anyone realizes. They also cover AI agents using crypto as their payment rail, Hyperliquid's after-hours commodity trading, and D'Agostino's bold 2026 predictions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dan Harris is a chief meteorologist at the UK Met Office - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/See him talking weather equations on Numberphile - https://youtu.be/YmZiq00CO60Dan's websites - https://www.roostweather.com/ and https://istheukhotrightnow.com/Check out some Met Office archive stuff at Brady's Objectivity channel - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLd5y2WfrtsPrauSfrdFfkE7iZ-KG9pCzOWeather videos on Brady's Sixty Symbols channel - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLcUY9vudNKBNpsv8AWUvJxbOl6S2pw8so Numberphile is supported by Jane Street - https://www.numberphile.com/jane-streetWith thanks to the Ben Delo Foundation - https://delo.org/You can support Numberphile on Patreon - https://www.patreon.com/numberphileHere are our Patrons - https://www.numberphile.com/patronsNumberphile is created by Brady Haran

In this episode, I sit down with Roberto Rios aka Peruvian Bull, and he didn't come to play it safe. Fresh off breaking news the morning of recording, we kick things off with the Jane Street manipulation lawsuit and what it might mean for Bitcoin price action. We cover the terrifying thesis of The Great Taking, why you may not actually own the stocks in your brokerage account, China's secret gold accumulation strategy and what it signals about the dollar's future, the slow-motion collapse of Japan's bond market, and how silver is finally breaking free from decades of paper price suppression. ––– Offers & Discounts –––

Analysts Will Clemente, Joe Vezzani and Marcus Wu share their Bitcoin outlook amidst war. Plus, Will shares his thesis on Gen Z's future, and Marcus previews his Bitcoin game theory model. Thank you to our sponsors! ⁠Nexo ⁠Crypto Tax Girl Bitcoin's price has largely held steady despite President Donald Trump's escalation of hostilities with Iran. Is this the bottom signal the market has been waiting for? STIX investments chief Will Clemente, LunarCrush co-founder Joe Vezzani and Delphi Digital Research Analyst Marcus Wu explain why it looks like Bitcoin is bottoming, why a 10/10-style crash would have happened in crypto even without the Binance glitch, and why, regardless of the Jane Street rumors, it's not beyond Wall Street to manipulate an asset. They also address speculation that Jane Street has been suppressing Bitcoin's price and how AI's rapid advancement could impact crypto in light of Citrini Research's article and Jack Dorsey's Block layoffs. Don't miss Joe's reasoning on why Trump could come to the market's rescue and Will's thesis on why zoomers face four unique financial and technological challenges. Plus Marcus also previews his new game theory model for trading the Bitcoin market. Guest: ⁠Marcus Wu, Research Analyst at Delphi Digital Joe Vezzani, Co-founder and CEO of LunarCrush Will Clemente, Investments at STIX Previous appearances on Unchained: Bitcoin Crashed Below $100K, But Smart Money Is Buying the Dip Strong Hands Aren't Selling Bitcoin. So Who Is? - Ep. 183 Arthur Hayes and Will Clemente on the 2024 Bitcoin Halving Links: Unchained:⁠⁠ Why Gold Rose and Bitcoin Tumbled on Japan Bond Turmoil Is Nic Carter Exaggerating Bitcoin's Quantum Risk? Yes, Says One Core Dev Bitcoin Rebounds as ETF Inflows Return, Jane Street Speculation Swirls Terraform Estate Targets Jane Street in Explosive Terra Collapse Lawsuit Crypto's Black Friday Was Its Largest Liquidation Ever. What the Hell Happened? Will's essay Climbing a Broken Ladder: A message to my fellow Zoomers Marcus's Bitcoin game theory model Bitcoin Game Theory on Delphi Digital Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On December 18, 2022, a mass shooting event inside Bellaria Tower II in Vaughan, Ontario left five people dead.Francesco Villi, a 73-year-old resident of the Bellaria condominium at 9235 Jane Street, carried out the attack after years of escalating legal disputes with the condo board. Within minutes, five residents were killed: Rita Camilleri, Vittorio Panza, Russell Manock, Helen “Lorraine” Manock, and Naveed Dada. Doreen Di Nino survived her injuries.In this episode, we examine the timeline of the Vaughan condo shooting, Villi's documented grievances, his final video, the police response, and the Ontario Special Investigations Unit findings.Content warning: This episode discusses violence and a mass shooting event.PLEASE READ: Some TNTC+ episodes may be released publicly in the future. TNTC+ subscribers will always get first access.--Music Composed by: Sayer Roberts - https://soundcloud.com/user-135673977 // shorturl.at/mFPZ0Subscribe to TNTC+ on Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/TNTCJoin our Patreon: www.patreon.com/tntcpodMerch: https://www.teepublic.com/stores/true-north-true-crime?ref_id=24376Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tntcpod/Follow us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/truenorthtruecrime Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The crew discusses whether prediction markets enable “Bloomberg terminal espionage,,” wonder how to regulate markets that could be on anything, dive into why the OCC is saying no to stablecoin yield and more. Thank you to our sponsors!  ⁠⁠Fuse: The Energy Network Prediction markets are in the spotlight again. On one hand adoption appears to be growing as the Nasdaq has announced plans of entering the space. On the other hand, they scrutinize markets that pose a national security risk.  In this DEX in the City episode, hosts Jessi Brooks, Katherine Kirkpatrick Bos and TuongVy Le discuss suspected insider trading activity around a market tied to the strikes on Iran. Beyond ethical concerns about betting on war, they grapple with the definition of “a death market” and ask whether all prediction markets around an individual are death markets.  The big question: How can these markets on literally any possible event be policed? Plus, is Jane Street manipulating the Bitcoin market? Why the OCC is saying NO to stablecoin yield and the takeaway from Jack Dorsey's Block layoffs. Hosts: ⁠⁠⁠Jessi Brooks⁠⁠⁠, General Counsel at Ribbit Capital ⁠⁠Katherine Kirkpatrick Bos⁠⁠, General Counsel at StarkWare ⁠⁠TuongVy Le, General Counsel at Veda Links: Unchained: Nasdaq Eyes Prediction Markets With SEC Filing Bitcoin Rebounds as ETF Inflows Return, Jane Street Speculation Swirls ZachXBT Alleges Axiom Employee Misused Internal Data White House Talks Make Progress on Stablecoin Yields but No Deal Yet DEX in the City: Insider Trading and Crypto: What the Law Actually Says Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this week's episode of the Coin Stories News Block powered exclusively by Ledn, we cover these major headlines related to Bitcoin, macroeconomics, and global finance: Did one firm's Bitcoin dump tank the entire market? The Jane Street story everyone's talking about Block bets the house on AI and cuts jobs to prove it — what Jack Dorsey knows that you don't The biggest banks in the world are going all-in on Bitcoin...here's what they're planning Iran conflict escalates and what it has to do with Bitcoin --- The News Block is powered exclusively by Ledn – the global leader in Bitcoin-backed loans, issuing over $9 billion in loans since 2018, and they were the first to offer proof of reserves. With Ledn, you get custody loans, no credit checks, no monthly payments, and more. My followers get .25% off their first loan. Learn more at www.ledn.io/natalie  ---- Order my new intro to Bitcoin book "Bitcoin is For Everyone": https://amzn.to/3WzFzfU  ---- Read every story in the News Block with visuals and charts! Join our mailing list and subscribe to our free Bitcoin newsletter: https://thenewsblock.substack.com  —- References mentioned in the episode: Morgan Stanley Announces Full-Stack Bitcoin Offering Citi Plans to Launch Institutional Bitcoin Custody  STRC Added to Three Corporate Balance Sheets Strategy Raises STRC Dividend to 11.5% Matt Hougan: Crypto May Be Structurally Mispriced Jane Street Sued by Terraform Labs Bankruptcy Administrator  Jane Street Allegedly Suppressing Bitcoin Price Alex Kruger: No Consistent 10 a.m. Bitcoin Dump in Market Data Ari Paul: Large Firms Do Not Suppress Price Structurally  Jane Street Faces $560M Manipulation Case from India's SEBI  DOJ Investigation Reported Into Jane Street Trading Activities  US and Israel Launch Strikes on Iran; Khamenei Killed  Iran Retaliates with Missile and Drone Strikes on US Bases  Strait of Hormuz: 20% of World Oil Supply at Risk  Chainalysis: Iran's Crypto Ecosystem Reached $7.8B in 2025  15 Million Iranians Have Crypto Exposure Amid 50% Inflation  Jack Dorsey Announces Block to Cut 40% of Staff  Jack Dorsey's X Post on Company Layoffs Due to AI  Greg Cipolaro: Bitcoin in the Age of Artificial Intelligence ---- Upcoming Events: Bitcoin 2026 will be here before you know it. Get 10% off Early Bird passes using the code HODL: https://tickets.b.tc/event/bitcoin-2026?promoCodeTask=apply&promoCodeInput=  ---- This podcast is for educational purposes and should not be construed as official investment advice. ---- VALUE FOR VALUE — SUPPORT NATALIE'S SHOWS Strike ID https://strike.me/coinstoriesnat/ Cash App $CoinStories #money #Bitcoin #investing  

On the latest Blockspace roundup, the gang cover's Block's 40% workforce reduction and our scoop that Magic Eden is quitting the Bitcoin and Ethereum NFT game. Get your tickets to OPNEXT 2026 before prices increase! Join us on April 16 in NYC for technical discussions, investor talks, and intimate conversation with the brightest minds in Bitcoin. Welcome back to The Blockspace Podcast! Today, Charlie and Colin cover the Block's 40% workforce reduction and why the stock ripped 20% on the news. We also dive into the bitcoin mining conditions that are driving hashprice to all-time lows, Blockspace's scoop that Magic Eden is sunsetting its Bitcoin Ordinals marketplace, MARA's latest AI partnership, and the Terra/Luna lawsuit against Jane Street. Plus, Luxor's Michael San Miguel joins the show to discuss the ins and outs of the GPU market.  Subscribe to the newsletter! https://newsletter.blockspacemedia.com Notes: * Block laid off 40% of its 10,000 employees. * Block stock surged 20% after the layoff news. * Bitcoin hash price hit an all-time low of $28. * Bitcoin difficulty adjusted upward by 14.73%. * Magic Eden is shutting down BTC and ETH marketplaces, multi-chain wallet * Bitdeer sold all its bitcoin; Cipher plans to sell its bitcoin in 2026 * MARA forms partnership with data center developer Starwood Timestamps: 00:00 Start 03:33 Hashrate update via Luxor's Hashrate Index 09:29 Block lays off 40% of staff 16:37 Magic Eden shutting down 25:54 GPUs & compute 28:03 GPU vs ASIC complexity 29:04 Upgrading hardware 32:16 Finding a compute buyer 34:00 Powershell vs Neocloud 37:12 Compute still in price discovery mode 42:05 MARA earnings 45:20 CIPHER dumping bags 48:44 Jane Street is the new boogyman 59:34 Everyone's short MSTR

Daniel Batten argues Bitcoin has largely blunted environmental FUD, but is now losing a broader narrative war and needs an “influence upgrade” to reach the next adoption cohorts He frames the problem as a sales and marketing gap where Bitcoiners often blame newcomers instead of meeting them where they are with better messaging and messengers Discussion highlights a survey showing key barriers are distrust, perceived immorality, and perceived uselessness rather than demographics or politics Daniel introduces a “hierarchy of newcomer needs” emphasizing safety, care, and alignment before education can land effectively Practical guidance: lead with listening, empathize with why someone believes common narratives, and avoid evangelism in favor of tailored education Examples of what works: ambassadors embedded in target communities (eg pension funds, charities) who understand internal processes and patiently navigate committees and objections Key takeaway on adoption dynamics: Bitcoin is both technology and asset, so adoption requires both visible usage (virality) and institutional-grade education to reduce perceived risk They discuss how catalytic events often come from targeted conversations with influential decision-makers (ETFs, corporate treasuries, political shifts), implying more can be “created” with better influence strategy News segment covers macro tariffs/legal angles, bottom-ish signals from on-chain/technical indicators, and pushback on simplistic “Jane Street manipulation” narratives Quantum computing fears are addressed via Yan Pritzker's thread: supply cap safe, risk concentrated in reused/exposed public keys, and migration paths like BIP-360 style upgrades ► For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/private?utm_campaign=private&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Secure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxes ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/ira?utm_campaign=ira&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Secure your Bitcoin with Swan Vault ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/vault?utm_campaign=vault&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Download the all-new Swan Bitcoin App ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/app?utm_campaign=app&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out Welcome To Bitcoin a FREE Introductory course. Learn about Bitcoin in under 1 hour! ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/welcome?utm_campaign=welcome_to_bitcoin&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live ► Connect with Swan Bitcoin: ✔ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Swan ✔ Instagram: https://instagram.com/SwanBitcoin ✔ LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/swanbitcoin ✔ Threads: https://www.threads.com/@swanbitcoin ✔ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/SwanBitcoin/ ✔ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@realswanbitcoin

February ends with peak FUD. Ryan and David unpack why crypto is stuck in historic “Extreme Fear” even without a major blowup, and why markets feel like they've entered an uncertainty bubble. They break down the Supreme Court striking Trump's tariffs, Trump immediately finding new legal doors to bring them back, and the looming $150B+ refund fight. Then the “Citrini Crash”: AI doomer scenarios going viral, spooking stocks, and leaving investors terrified that AI will be either not good enough or far too good. Plus: fresh allegations that Jane Street helped accelerate Terra's collapse, Meta's stablecoin reboot for its billions of users, ZachXBT's Axiom insider trading exposé, Hyperliquid's new DC policy push, Robinhood's retail venture fund, Coinbase's 24/5 stocks rollout, and the Pentagon's ultimatum to Anthropic over AI guardrails. ---

Matt and Nic are back with another week of news and deals. In this episode:  Kalshi has detected and banned two accounts for insider trading Is Polymarket going to have to add KYC? Is there a tradeoff between informational efficiency and market fairness The OCC de facto bans stablecoin yield in its rulemaking around GENIUS Meta is considering partnering with a stablecoin issuer Stripe is bullish in their annual report ZachXBT determines that Axiom employees have been abusing the platform Terraform labs accuses Jane Street of insider trading WSJ reports that Binance overlooked Iranian sanctions violations Justin Drake unveils a post-quantum roadmap for Ethereum Matt Corallo says Nic is wrong about Bitcoin and quantum Content mentioned: Larry Cermak: How Crypto Actually Works: The Missing Manual  

This week, we're back with another weekly roundup where we discuss the recent lawsuit filed by Terraform Labs against Jane Street. We then deep dive into Circle's earnings, Tether's investment in Whop, Robinhood's Venture fund & more. Enjoy! -- Follow Rob: https://x.com/HadickM Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel Follow Empire:https://x.com/theempirepod -- Join us at DAS (Digital Asset Summit) in New York City this March! Follow the link below to grab your ticket, and use code EMPIRE200 to get $200 off your ticket! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026 -- Coinbase crypto-backed loans, powered by Morpho, enable you to take out loans at competitive rates using crypto as collateral. Rates are typically 4% to 8%. Borrow up to $5M using BTC as collateral and up to $1M using ETH as collateral. Manage crypto-backed loans directly in the Coinbase app with ease. Learn more here: https://www.coinbase.com/onchain/borrow/get-started?utm_campaign=0126_defi-borrow_blockworks_empire&marketId=0x9103c3b4e834476c9a62ea009ba2c884ee42e94e6e314a26f04d312434191836&utm_source=empire -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:40) Terraform Labs Sues Jane Street (28:40) Coinbase Ad (29:24) DAS Plug (29:51) Circle Beats Earnings (39:32) Would You Rather Own Stripe or Circle? (46:10) Robinhood's Venture Fund  (56:04) Tether Invests $200M In Whop (01:19:37) Content of The Week -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, Rob and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Robinhood's Coy Garrison and Seong Seog Lee join the crew to unpack the Robinhood Chain launch strategy. Thank you to our sponsors!  ⁠MultiChain Advisors Robinhood's proposed chain for the trading of tokenized assets is live in testnet. In this DEX in the City episode, Coy Garrison, Robinhood's deputy general counsel on crypto, and Robinhood Crypto Head of Product Seong Seog Lee walk hosts Katherine Kirkpatrick Bos and Jessi Brooks through the thinking behind the blockchain's testnet launch and why it is important that it supports tokenized equities out of the gate. Beyond the Robinhood Chain testnet launch, KK and Jessi discuss OpenAI and Paradigm's EVMbench tool and why it highlights the need for a safety-first approach. “AI and crypto are in the same room now, but the room's sort of on fire,” Jessi says. Don't miss how a man accidentally gained remote access to 7,000 robot vacuums in 24 countries with AI-written code. KK and Jessi also dig into the Terraform Labs estate's lawsuit against Jane Street. Is there any real credibility behind the lawsuit? Listen to find out! Save $100 with Crypto Tax Girl! Hosts: ⁠⁠Jessi Brooks⁠⁠, General Counsel at Ribbit Capital ⁠Katherine Kirkpatrick Bos⁠, General Counsel at StarkWare Guests: ⁠⁠⁠Coy Garrison, Senior Director and Deputy General Counsel, Crypto at Robinhood ⁠⁠Seong Seog Lee, Head of Product at Robinhood Crypto Links: Unchained: Robinhood Pushes Deeper Into Tokenization With Layer 2 Testnet Launch Inside Robinhood's Big Super App Plan: ‘There's Still a Lot of Work to Be Done' OpenAI and Paradigm Launch EVMbench to Stress Test AI on Smart Contract Security Uneasy Money: How the Increasingly Better AI Agents Are Being Used Onchain When AI Agents Take Over, What Does a Post-Human Economy Look Like? Terraform Estate Targets Jane Street in Explosive Terra Collapse Lawsuit DeFi Platforms Could Get ‘Innovation Exemption,' SEC Chair Says SEC Quietly Eases Capital Rules for Stablecoins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices