Marketplace Morning Report

Markets were hopeful on Friday after Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened to commercial vessels. Now, escalating tensions are bringing expectations back down. Marketplace's Nova Safo spoke with Julia Coronado, founder and president of MacroPolicy Perspectives and a professor at the University of Texas at Austin, about how global economists at the National Association for Business Economics International Symposium in Rome, Italy, are grappling with the back and forth. Plus, later in the program: underemployment among recent college graduates and how we measure it.

The Strait of Hormuz has remained largely closed, with only three sanctioned tankers making it through the waterway according to Reuters. When asked about a potential timeline for lower gas prices on CNN, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said prices below $3 “might not happen until next year.” Also on the program, we discuss a New York State law limiting employers' use of credit history and Germany's plan to build military enlistment.

Iran declared on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz has reopened for all commercial vessels. While the news caused stocks to rally and oil prices to drop, it's unclear yet whether or not the market reaction is premature. Plus, we take a look into the aging demographics of first-time homebuyers and their shrinking share of the housing market.

The head of the International Energy Agency warned on Thursday that Europe could run out of jet fuel in few as six weeks. The continent is the biggest consumer of jet fuel shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, and ongoing closures in the strait could lead to swaths of flight cancellations. Also on the program: we discuss shifting expectations for American universities, our aging first-time homebuyer population, and changes at Netflix.

The Federal Reserve is meeting at the end of this month to figure out what to do with interest rates. They have a tough task ahead of them: weighing the job market, inflation, and a war in the Middle East that is "roiling supply chains in ways that are similar ... to what we saw emerging from the pandemic," said KPMG's Diane Swonk. Also on the show: Rising health insurance costs are dragging down wage growth.

Power utilities plan to spend $1.4 trillion over the next five years on capital projects. A lot of that boils down to grid maintenance and projects to support additional power generation. That's a 21% increase over what utilities were planning to spend a year ago — and it could drive up household utility bills. Then, it's been a little over three months since the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. How has Venezuela's oil industry changed since?

We talk a lot about the price of oil on this show, but there are actually dozens of types of oil. On today's program, we're learning about where they come from, what they're used for, and why the price of oil futures differs from oil's on-the-spot market price. And later, as energy gets more expensive, governments around the world are asking people to try to conserve energy. How much of an impact do those moves have?

The Trump administration says it'll start issuing refunds for tariffs the Supreme Court ruled were collected illegally next week. Customs and Border Protection's automated system will be able to process about 82% of the tariff payments, worth about $127 billion. More complicated claims will have to wait. Then, we'll discuss what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for U.S. oil producers. Plus, could a United Airlines-American Airlines merger be in the cards?

It's springtime, meaning the real estate market is supposed to be popping. But fresh data from the National Association of Realtors shows seasonally adjusted sales of existing homes are actually down 3.6%. What's going on? Also on the show, Chinese exports slowed sharply last month amid energy shocks, and a surge in the cost of petrochemicals — used in plastics, fertilizers, and more — is likely to translate to higher costs on supermarket shelves.

It's almost Tax Day. And while some of us may have waited till the last minute to do our taxes, the federal government sure won't be wasting any time spending them. This morning, we're unpacking how much of your tax bill goes toward services like defense, Social Security, health care, food assistance, the national debt, and more. Plus, there's been no net job creation over the last six months, which can make the economy more vulnerable.

The U.S. has threatened a blockade of Iranian ports set to go into effect this morning. That means the supply of oil will be even more restricted than it was before. We'll dig into what all this means for oil markets. Plus, the economic consequences of the war are reshaping businesses' hiring plans stateside, too. And, there's a parade of banks releasing results this week. Investors are paying close attention.

Grocery prices on average are up about 2% compared to this time last year. But split up the food groups, and we start to see some bigger numbers. Tomatoes, lettuce, and nonalcoholic beverages (especially coffee) led the way for price increases. Meanwhile, the cost of meat and dairy declined. Why? Also: a Straight of Hormuz blockade courtesy of the U.S., and a look at how Trump's tax and spending law could impact charitable giving.

Nearly 600 Marketplace fans gathered at the Aratani Theatre in downtown Los Angeles to watch Kai Ryssdal present Marketplace Live, in partnership with LAist.Kai was joined onstage by economics author, educator, and content creator Kyla Scanlon to talk about AI, prediction markets, Federal Reserve independence, and the war in Iran. Later, former “Marketplace Morning Report” host David Brancaccio joined Kai to discuss his experience rebuilding after the LA fire and his new job as Marketplace senior correspondent covering future effects.Note: This show was recorded on March 29, and the situation in Iran has changed since then. Follow our latest coverage here.

David Brancaccio has hosted an estimated 16,925 morning shows over 13 years. Now, for his final time in the host chair, David shares snippets of discussions he's had throughout the years, including with experienced local Del Rio, Texas-based reporter Karen Gleason, Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, and actor and entrepreneur William Shatner. Also on the program, Princeton's Burton Malkiel addresses concerns and gives advice about a potential AI bubble.

For his second-to-last time hosting an episode of "Marketplace Morning Report," David Brancaccio spoke with the author of arguably the most influential book on personal finance and investing of all time. First published in 1973, "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" argues that it's super hard to beat the stock market. Its author, Burton Malkiel, is a Princeton professor emeritus and still going strong at 93. We have that conversation, as well as a preview of March's consumer price index.

Today, we're returning to our 2019 Brains and Losses series, which investigated the financial exploitation of older Americans. In the years that have followed, AI has only made scams more convincing and easier to conduct. This morning, we're joined by an elder law attorney in Florida to hear how some pioneering laws there are aiming to stop scammers who prey on older people mid-swindle. Also, we're digging into the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, which remains stubbornly elevated.

In the 1960s, the German government put a tariff on American chickens. President Lyndon B. Johnson then retaliated with a tariff on light-duty commercial vehicles and trucks. The back-and-forth has come to define the U.S. auto sector. On this morning's show, why a veteran automotive CEO calls this chicken tax "one of the most important, formative aspects of how the U.S. industry has evolved." But first, markets try to guess whether the U.S.-Iran ceasefire will hold.

As David Brancaccio winds down his tenure as host of the "Marketplace Morning Report," he's speaking with places of work he might have ended up at if he weren't a broadcast journalist. On today's show, we head to Bike Oven in Los Angeles, a co-op that aims to give you everything you need to learn how to fix your bike yourself. But first: an examination of oil prices and potential tariffs on countries sending weapons to Iran.

We are now into the first hours of a two-week ceasefire in the U.S.-Iran conflict. The wholesale price of oil has plunged nearly 16%. The New York price was pushing $118 yesterday; this morning, it's below $95 a barrel. While the war certainly isn't over, markets are celebrating the momentary relief. Then, we'll check in with both a New Mexico nonprofit and an AI firm to understand the region's K-shaped economy.

Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, put out his annual letter to shareholders this week. In it, the leader of the largest bank in North America outlined worries about persistently elevated inflation and the growing role of private credit. We'll unpack. Then, as part of our “Business Envy” series, we'll have a chat with the founder and CEO of a Maine-based rocket company looking to support research missions and a growing space economy.

Billionaire activist investor Bill Ackman is making a play for Taylor Swift's record label in a deal that Reuters values at around $64 billion. Ackman wants his investment firm, Pershing Square Capital Management, to take over Universal Music Group. This morning, we'll dig into the news. Then, we continue our trip along Route 66 and visit Northern Arizona University, which has designated this academic year the “Year of AI Empowerment.”

The price of crude oil is fluctuating this morning. This comes after oil producers at OPEC+ agreed to slightly increase production over the weekend. We give you the facts. Plus, a preview of Thursday's GDP revision. Also, “Marketplace Morning Report” host David Brancaccio speaks with the majority owner of a coffee roasting company.

To see the U.S. economy in 3D, you gotta hit the open road. 100 years after the iconic highway was built, “Marketplace Morning Report” host David Brancaccio kicks off his final week in the host chair with his journey on Route 66. His trip begins in Santa Monica, California. Along the way, he speaks with local business owners about the precarious job market, changing landscapes, and why one particular stop is a hit with French tourists.

The U.S. economy added 178,000 new jobs in March, and the unemployment rate went down. That's a big improvement from last month's disappointing jobs report, but there's more than meets the eye to these numbers. We'll explain in today's episode. Also: SpaceX filed paperwork for an IPO, and the company's high predicted valuation isn't the only thing making waves. Plus, some food for thought before this weekend's Final Four basketball games and inevitable betting ads: “This Is Uncomfortable” host Reema Khrais explains the effects of prediction markets on our wallets and our brains.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order yesterday that threatened tariffs of up to 100% on imported medications. The executive order also overhauls steel, copper, and aluminum tariffs. We've got all the details. Also in this episode: a breakdown of the new March jobs report. Plus, David Brancaccio speaks to a vintage car converter who turns old cars into electric vehicles.

The president made the case for the Iran war, and markets were not impressed. After President Donald Trump's address to the nation last night, the price of oil went up, and stocks went down. This is a total reversal of what markets were doing going into the speech, when stocks rallied, and oil prices fell. We'll get into it all and provide some key takeaways. Then, Marketplace's David Brancaccio takes a trip to a West Hollywood pawn shop.

A year ago today, the president pulled out a chart in the now paved-over Rose Garden and set the global economy on fire. He announced his so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs, which changed a bunch of times before being deemed illegal by the Supreme Court earlier this year. And those tariffs were mostly paid by us — consumers and small businesses. Plus, just how worried should we be about jitters in the private credit market?

Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD told analysts it's confident it can sell 1.5 million vehicles outside of China this year. Chinese EVs are advanced and affordable, making them increasingly popular in the global auto market. That can't be said for the U.S., however, which is effectively shutting out Chinese EVs with 100% tariffs. This morning, what does the U.S. economy stand to lose if we don't let Chinese cars in? But first, markets are feeling confident despite ongoing fighting in the Middle East.

President Donald Trump is scheduled to address the nation about Iran tonight. He told reporters yesterday that the war could wrap up in two to three weeks. Meanwhile, Iran has issued a new threat against 18 U.S. businesses operating in the region, including Microsoft, Google, Intel, Tesla, and Boeing. The war is also having dire effects on energy in South and Southeast Asia. Plus, how much is air travel being impacted by rising jet fuel costs?

The United States is finally allowing Russian oil to be delivered to Cuba after months of what has basically been an energy blockade imposed by the U.S. The blockade has caused nationwide blackouts, severe fuel shortages, and shutdowns of schools and nonessential businesses. The BBC's Will Grant joins us for more. Then, we head to Boston, where one of the oldest trade schools in the country is teaching students skills like piano-tuning, locksmithing, and violin-making.

The average price of gasoline is now above $4 a gallon for the first time in three years. Some analysts say that's a key psychological barrier, above which consumers begin to shift behavior and cut back on spending. Plus, the spike in oil prices we've seen may more than completely offset the fiscal boost from this year's tax refund, and roughly a third of people trading in their old cars are underwater on their car loans.

Domestic migration in the U.S. has been declining for decades. This morning, we'll look into who's still moving, what factors drive their decision, and what's behind the shift. Plus, do wealthy people really flee to tax-friendlier pastures when their taxes go up? But first, there's a sort of backup plan for the oil supply, but the ongoing war in the Middle East means it could soon be under threat, as well.

Oil prices continue their upward climb amid conflict in the Middle East. The international benchmark Brent crude is now $115 a barrel; on Friday, it was $105. Brent is headed for its biggest monthly climb ever, and this morning, there are concerns about additional disruptions to oil shipments through another key route. We'll unpack. Also: a looming helium shortage and a search for ways to mitigate threats to humanity.

The U.S. national debt crossed $39 trillion last week, and it's growing fast. Racking up the most recent $5 trillion of that total only took two years. Now, a new survey finds that Americans' fiscal confidence is the lowest it's been in a couple of years. Also on this morning's show: Anthropic gets a (temporary) win in its fight with the Pentagon, and commuters reflect on two years without Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge.

The Trump administration is reviewing the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which comes up for renewal this year. The USMCA replaced NAFTA, was an economic cornerstone of President Donald Trump's first term, and accounts for more than $4 billion worth of cross-border trade. Thing is, it didn't live up to its promises of spurring manufacturing jobs. What might come next? But first, we dig into the anxiety that comes with surviving multiple rounds of layoffs.

People in the U.S. send a lot of money abroad: In 2024 alone, about $93 billion in formal remittances were sent overseas. However, a new federal remittance tax imposes a 1% levy on certain transfers. While a 1% tax may not sound substantial, it can drive up the price of sending money and hit unbanked individuals hard. We dig in. But first, the U.S. dollar has been gaining strength. Why is that happening?

Population growth is slowing in most counties in the U.S., according to new population estimates from the Census Bureau. During that time, 310 of the 387 U.S. metro areas had slower population growth, with dramatic declines along the U.S.-Mexico border. This largely has to do with a big decrease in net international migration. Then, later in the program, we have a deep dive into the current state of the pawn shop economy.

TSA agents have been working without pay for more than a month, while ICE agents have started arriving at airports to assist with security lines. Today, we'll hear what reps for TSA agents have to say. Plus, from "Marketplace Tech," the Commodities Futures Trading Commission is looking at new rules for prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. Then we'll help you make sure you're not leaving money on the table when doing your taxes this year.

Fuel costs can be vulnerable during geopolitical conflict. The war in the Middle East has sent shockwaves through energy markets. Over the past two weeks, oil and gas prices have been on a bit of a rollercoaster. This morning, we'll delve into what vulnerability and the lack of price stability for oil could mean for countries' renewable energy investment. Then, new data shows rent prices edging up after months of falling.

The Treasury Department is holding several government bond auctions this week. Treasury auctions can tell us a lot about the interest rates investors are demanding to be paid, which in turn can tell us about what investors expect the economy to do in the future. We'll also learn about a ban on foreign-made consumer routers. Plus, from Marketplace's "This Is Uncomfortable," should I turn my hobby into a side hustle?

Starting in mid-June, soccer fans will flock to 16 cities across North America for the World Cup. Each match will draw tens of thousands of fans, many of whom will take public transit. That's spurred transit agencies in host cities to expand service or finish big infrastructure projects. We'll learn more. But first, a quick update on the Middle East and a look at changes to the state and local tax deduction.

It's tax season. Therefore, it's also tax scam season. A new McAfee survey finds nearly one in four Americans has been a victim of a tax-related scam, and AI is only making scams more convincing. This morning, we'll share what to look out for and how to stay safe. Also, the uncertainty of war in the Middle East means that safe haven investments aren't acting all that safe, and a San Francisco jury decided that Elon Musk defrauded Twitter shareholders during takeover negotiations.