Old Bull

Folks, Today we're living history with Joe Walsh—-Tea Party congressman to Never Trump activist, to an card carrying Democrat!! I'm excited to announce that last week Joe decided to put a ring on it and officially become a Democrat.And here is one thing that makes him a fairly unique Democrat, the very kind we desperately need: he's a fighter. I hope you'll agree with me, these the days for heroes and I for one and ecstatic to add Joe and his arsenal of rhetorical weapons to the party. In fact, I welcome everyone to go read through some of the content on Joe's Substack The Social Contract with Joe Walsh. The Republican Party's propaganda machine has done an excellent job of defining democrats, a party dominated by moderates, as a party of extremists.There is nothing more extreme than pretending an election was stolen and then trying to sick a mob on the Capitol to violently seize power after his party-wide coup plan failed. Now, if you are member of Joe's audience, and not mine, I am a former political scientist turned political analyst/strategist who has devoted her entire life to trying to get Democrats to make electoral war, not love. You can check out my work and order by book at here. Ok, back to this Living History episode. Living History is based on the idea that the present now will later be past. Future historians will be writing books about what we're living through RIGHT NOW. So its important to both record and make history ourselves right now. When the books get written about America in the early 21st century, lets make sure the books are about the true Patriots who stood up to stop fascism. -Rachel The Cycle- On Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

This week we bring you into the strategy driving Trump's decision to send the National Guard and the marines into LA. Rachel compares the fiery I.C.E. protests with how the Nazis rose to power in 1930s Germany, plus how does Elon's and Don's Big Beautiful Breakup threaten the President's tax cuts for billionaires? We also unpack the DOJ's fishy case against Kilmar Abrego Garcia. LINKS:* Newsom to Defense Secretary Hegseth: Rescind National Guard Order* LA Protesters Angry w/ Mayor Karen Bass & Governor Gavin Newsom* Justice Department documents re: Kilmar Abrego Garcia* The Cycle Monday Memo: Something Wicked This Way Comes (Substack)* POLITICO: ‘You essentially destroyed any chance I have,' DNC chair told David Hogg in private meeting* Hit ‘Em Where It Hurts: How to Save Democracy by Beating Republicans at Their Own Game Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

Folks!Welcome to the inaugural episode of the Living History pod. I'm excited to bring you this unique conversation with Don Lemon, former anchor at CNN but current anchor of his new independent media project The Don Lemon Show on YouTube. And Don is covering all his new media bases, offering his content via youtube, X, Bluesky, Insta, and Subtack. The premise of the show is that we're living through extraordinary times, a time period future historians will write books about. Thus, it behooves us all to keep records of what it was like to live through this, from a variety of different perspectives: journalists, authors, politicians, and others who each bring their own distinct perspectives to assess what we're seeing under Trump 2.0. The present now, will later be past. Its important that we capture this moment in time. We're living history. Rachel PS: I hope you enjoy this free premier of Living History! If you like the concept of the show, let me know what you think in the comments.Want these interviews to run a full hour or do you like the 30 minute format?Do you have people you'd like me to bring on to the show? Let me know! The Cycle- On Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

This week Rachel and Aaron follow Elon “Black Eye” Musk out the door as he whines about the American political system he destroyed. Plus: cracks in the ice when it comes to criticizing Donald Trump and the Big Ugly Bill, a weird reminder of death from a U.S. Senator (and a weirder “apology”). What happens when you call a fascist… a fascist? And we take a hard look at the Great Replacement Theory through the lens of Tucker Carlson.LINKS:* New York Times: On the Campaign Trail, Elon Musk Juggled Drugs and Family Drama* Associated Press: Musk put a spotlight on federal spending, but cut less than he wanted* Elon Musk interview on CBS This Morning* Sen. Rand Paul on Face the Nation* Sen. Joni Ernst: “We're all going to die”* Ernst makes sarcastic “apology” in graveyard* Woman calls out Rep. Mike Flood as a fascist* Trump confronted by TACO Theory* Tucker Carlson interview with Canadian MP Maxime Bernier* Trump throws 500-word hissyfit about Leornard Leo and the Federalist Society* The Cycle on Subtack* Hit ‘Em Where It Hurts: How to Save Democracy by Beating Republicans at Their Own GameThe Cycle- On Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Thanks for reading The Cycle- On Substack! This post is public so feel free to share it. Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

This week Rachel and Aaron translate Trump's Marie Antoinette “Let Them Eat Tariffs" moment. Plus, an alarming shakeup in the national intelligence community with echoes from history. In Trump's DOJ if you can't charge ‘em, shame ‘em.LINKS:* Trump post: Wal-Mart should ‘EAT THE TARIFFS'* Associated Press: Gabbard fires 2 top intelligence officials and will shift office that preps Trump's daily brief* NBC's Meet the Press: Interview with Mike Pence (May 18, 2025)* Fox: Sunday Morning Futures: Interview with Kash Patel & Dan Bongino (May 18, 2025)* USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins on Trump banner* NBC News: DOJ 'weaponization' group will shame individuals it can't charge with crimes* CNN: James Comey's ‘weird' social media approach lands him in hot water* VIDEO: Rep. Swalwell presses HS Secretary Noem on doctored photo* The Cycle on Subtack: Trump's Executive Orders Serve One Sinister Purpose* Hit ‘Em Where It Hurts: How to Save Democracy by Beating Republicans at Their Own Game Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

My conversation with Richard Hanania, author of The Origins of Woke and contributor on Project 2025 is one of the most important conversations I've had on this show. Important for you and important for his audience too. If you want to know why I say that, you'll have to give it a listen because I'm way too smart to lay it out here for you! You'll learn from the conversation Hanania's break with the Trump Cult over the insanity of DOGE and Trump's tariffs has produced a predictable backlash from MAGA.There is only one rule of MAGA Fight Club and its never, ever insult the boss or admit he's wrong. Last week Hanania put up a really compelling article on his own Substack you can find right here titled: What I Got Wrong About Trump. Again as a political behaviorist, let me reiterate that two things are particularly hard psychologically for anyone to do (and most can't do at all) and those two things are:* admitting you got something wrong* Breaking with your own “tribe” to do so. Show Richard Hanania some grace folks, and give his mea culpa a read: Get content you won't find anywhere else. Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

Trump pushes socialist price controls for pharmaceuticals, refugee status for white people and free flights out for everyone else. Rachel and Aaron also dive into the effort to suspend the U.S. Constitution, and compare how Trump's chaotic presidency parallels the rise of Vladimir Putin. Plus…Da Pope offers inspiring words for the world.LINKS:* Trump wants drug price controls (* Trump bashes price controls on Truth Social (August 2024)* White House: TO ALL ILLEGAL ALIENS: BOOK YOUR FREE FLIGHT NOW* Cardinal Prevost (Pope Leo XIV) tweet re: JD Vance (Feb 3)* Bannon's War Room: Marjorie Taylor Greene* Rachel on white South African refugees* OANN on Twitter* Pope Leo XIV: “Evil will not win”* Hit ‘Em Where It Hurts: How to Save Democracy by Beating Republicans at Their Own Game* The Cycle on Substack Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

History is certainly echoing now!Folks, I'm returning to my conversational pods with interesting people talking about interesting s**t. I'm kicking things off by living by example and doing a crossover show with THE Mr. Beat, who hosts a very popular You Tube channel. There's a whole world out there that doesn't engage with or see any of the political content that are the staples of our lives. AND that world is much, much bigger than our world. This is why we're seeing a concerted effort by Democrats to do something they have always feared: have real conservations with real people on media people actually watch. Don't forget, the average daily audience of MSNBC is 700,000 people. That's about .000000001% of the country watching Deadline, in case you're wondering why people voted for fascism. In fact, on Monday you're going to get a very important announcement about the future of The Cycle and the cool s**t we're going to be dropping as the year progresses. Anyhoo, Mr. Beat was kind enough to come have a conversation with me about what my new major thesis: American history is actually just one book with different chapters, those chapters being: * The Great Compromise (AKA: The Constitution* The Expansion of the American West * Civil War* End of Reconstruction and the introduction of Jim Crow* The Civil Rights Movement of the 1950s and 1960sANNNNDDDD Chapter 6: Whatever the F**k it is That This MAGA Thing is Going to End With.Because that book is still be written. Right now. By us. Now, before any of you get too excited about that you should know this is what I'm noodling on in terms of my next book proposal: preemptively titled as Living History. Once I go to sell it, it will end up with a 15 word subtitle so I'm going to enjoy my two word title until they pay me money to get over it. As subscribers to The Cycle y'all are the very first people to hear about this new project which is still in its early planning stages. Back to Mr. Beat, who figured out he could make more money swinging history videos on You Tube than he made after 11 years of being a high school history teacher (which you should read as a testament to how shitty teacher pay it is). He is also a published author of The Power of Our Supreme Court: How Supreme Court Cases Shape Democracy and you should check it out! I hope you enjoy our crossover conversation! You can subscribe to Mr. Beats You Tube You right here! AND of course you can share and subscribe to The Cycle here! Did you learn something new from today's conversation? Don't be a knowledge hoarder!! Hit share! Do you appreciate my fusion of political science, data, history, economics, and culture?? Subscribe now!!! Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

This week Rachel and Aaron investigate the three words that hit hardest from Donald Trump's recent interview on Meet the Press, and the one word missing from the New York Times's editorial criticizing his first 100 days. Plus the Lord of the Shadows, Stephen Miller, wants you to know MAGA has BIG plans for your children and grandchildren. Don't miss an eye-opening comparison between Trump's “Lord of Shadows” and the Nazi Party's youth indoctrination programs. LINKS:* NBC's Meet the Press: Full interview with Donald Trump* NBC News: Fact-checking Donald Trump's May interview with ‘Meet the Press'* 60 Minutes: How law firms targeted by Trump are responding to White House pressure* Marc Elias: Democracy Docket* SNL: ‘Lord of the Shadows'* Stephen Miller: ‘Children will be taught to love America'* New York Times: Editorial: There Is a Way Forward: How to Defeat Trump's Power Grab* Mike Pence Receives JFK Profile in Courage Award* Hit ‘Em Where It Hurts: How to Save Democracy by Beating Republicans at Their Own Game* The Cycle on SubstackLove This is America? Tell someone else you love about it by hitting the share button!This is America thanks our paid subscribers and urges you to consider supporting independent media by upgrading to a paid subscription today! Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

As another texting scandal jolts the Pentagon into “full-blown meltdown,” Rachel earns national attention for her internet sleuthing skills and gets vindicated in the aftermath of the Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Plus, she and Aaron take a close look at the first rule in fighting tyranny… and share a masterclass from a European internet troll.LINKS:* Politico Opinion: Former Top Pentagon Spokesperson Details ‘Month From Hell' Inside the Agency* The Daily Beast: Rachel catches bad White House photoshop job* George Carlin: Methods of Execution* SplitTicket.org tweet: The story of Wisconsin's Supreme Court election was turnout* Timothy Snyder on Substack: Obeying in Advance* European Parliament Member Gerben-Jan Gerbrandy trolls Trump's New York* Hit ‘Em Where It Hurts: How to Save Democracy by Beating Republicans at Their Own Game* The Cycle on SubstackThe Cycle- On Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

This week Rachel and Aaron change up the format to take a deep dive into the arrest and deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, imprisoned in El Salvador without due process despite a U.S. Supreme Court order to “facilitate” his return. The case has chilling parallels to what happened in Germany between 1933 and 1945. This is a warning from history worth understanding.In Nazi Germany the Gestapo didn't even have to watch everyone: your friends, neighbors, co-workers, and even family members had the power to destroy you. Much of the terror came from not knowing, you know, who was watching or listening. History doesn't replicate like DNA but it does repeat. LINKS* The Persecution and Murder of the European Jews by Nazi Germany, 1933–1945* Full news conference: Trump and President Bukele of El Salvador* Rep. Steven Horsford blasts U.S. trade rep after Trump tariff pause* Hit ‘Em Where It Hurts: How to Save Democracy by Beating Republicans at Their Own Game Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

Trump's planned destruction of America's economy is a pivotal political moment. This week Rachel and Aaron offer advice for “normies” who are just now waking up to the mess. Plus, a reading of the tea leaves after the recent special elections, how to send us your best signs for this month's next nationwide protests, and why was this week's show a little late? We've got an exciting reason!LINKS:* The 50501 Movement (April 19th protests)* Sen. Rand Paul's resolution to “Reassert Congressional Authority Over Tax Policy”* Project 2025 Tracker Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

It's Election Day! Will it be a difficult one for MAGA in Wisconsin and Florida? Plus, Rachel and Aaron get into the nitty gritty over Third Term Gate… and Signal Gate. The Trump Tax, er “Liberation Day,” prompts Aaron to move up his car shopping timeline. Musk gives away millions. And what's the one issue voters associate most with the Democratic Party? The answer may surprise you...LINKS:* NBC News: Trump won't rule out seeking a third term in the White House* The Intercept: In Trump's America, You Can Be Disappeared for Writing an Op-Ed* The Tufts Daily: Op-ed coauthored by Rümeysa Öztürk* The Cycle on Substack: Voters Have No Idea What Democrats Stand For* The New York Times: Marine Le Pen Barred From French Presidential Run After Embezzlement Ruling* Hit ‘Em Where It Hurts: How to Save Democracy by Beating Republicans at Their Own Game Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

This week Rachel and Aaron chase the firetrucks to the dumpster fire of the Trump Administration and Republicans in Congress who're trying to defend it. How do you explain an unprecedented security breach involving secret war plans accidentally shared with a news editor? Where do voters draw a line in the sand? Plus, a closer look at why Elon Musk is trying to break the Overton Window. And are spring breakers really this… dumb?LINKS:* The Atlantic: The Trump Administration Accidentally Texted Me Its War Plans* New York Times: Musk Is Positioned to Profit Off Billions in New Government Contracts* Campaign Website: Judge Susan Crawford for Wisconsin Supreme Court* Greenland's Prime Minister: “Taking over our country over our heads”* CNN: Angry voters confront GOP lawmaker at town hall in Washington* LibertyHangout.tv on YouTube: Spring Breakers Fail American History Trivia* Rachel at The Cycle: What is the Overton Window and Why is Elon Musk Breaking It?* Hit ‘Em Where It Hurts: How to Save Democracy by Beating Republicans at Their Own Game Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

This week Rachel and Aaron explore the good, the bad and the ugly. Why is Schumer's vote to keep the government open an important political move? What prompted a pissed-off federal judge to issue an order from the bench? And what do the latest poll numbers mean for Trump 2.0? Plus: adios, habeas corpus. And we drop into a fiery town hall meeting in North Carolina's bright red 11th Congressional District.LINKS:* Rachel on The Cycle: Never Interrupt Your Enemy When They Are Making a Mistake* MSNBC: ‘A sham: Federal judge blasts Trump admin on improper firings of federal workers; orders rehiring* Quinnipiac University Poll: Voters' Ratings on Economy and Trump Dip* NBC March 2025 Poll* Hit ‘Em Where It Hurts: How to Save Democracy by Beating Republicans at Their Own GameDo you like This is America? This podcast needs your support to continue so please consider becoming a PAID subscriber today! If a podcast falls in the woods and there is no one to hear it, does it still make a sound? I'd argue no, it needs ears! Help us find some by sharing this pod with your own network! Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

As the Trump administration tanks the stock market and sends prices soaring even higher, Rachel and Aaron examine the stupid in “it's the economy, stupid.” Europe reconsiders a new world leader while here at home, Republican politicians become snowflakes. Plus, a chilling observation from the New York Times' chief White House correspondent, and how would Rachel have responded to Trump's boring Joint Address to Congress?Do you appreciate my fusion of political science, history, data, and current events? I can't make this content without YOUR support. Support Indie media by subscribing to The Cycle- OnShare the gift of knowledge to someone who needs it! Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

This week Rachel and Aaron cut through the noise as Elon's "Chainsaw for Democracy" cuts thousands of federal jobs, and as Steve "Prison Toady" Bannon massacres the Constitution--surprising even a fellow neo-Nazi. Trump's honeymoon is over though, according to public polling (surprise! Americans don't seem to care about DEI). And members of Congress face the music at public town halls, even in deep red districts. LINKS:* NPR: DOGE released data about federal contract savings. It doesn't add up* Washington Post poll: Many of Trump's early actions are unpopular* CNN Poll: Americans worried by Trump's push to expand power* Wyomingite gives master class in "pivot, belittle, attack"* Alarming scene from Republic of Gilead (Coeur d'Alene, ID)* Hit 'Em Where It Hurts: How to Save Democracy by Beating Republicans at Their Own Game Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

This week Rachel and Aaron go behind the Resolute Desk with Elon, Donald and "X Æ A-XII." They untangle a "very weird 20 minutes" from failed comedian JD Vance in Munich, start the clock on Marco Rubio's tenuous tenure as Secretary of State, and shine light on the plain-sight quid-pro-quo between Trump's Justice Department and NYC Mayor Eric Adams. Oh... and how does Trump's controversial "Napoleon Dynamite" tweet compare to Hitler's rise in Fascist Germany?Do you appreciate my fusion of political science, history, data, and current events? I can't make this content without YOUR support. Support Indie media by subscribing to The Cycle

This week, Rachel and Aaron keep up with Trump 2.0's strategy of flooding the zone, resulting in a chaotic political and media environment that can only be described as "everything, everywhere, all at once." They explore the parallels of what's happening now to the rise of Nazi Germany, particularly the "golden age of culture"--which MAGA America desperately wants to control. Rachel and Aaron also discuss the threat of democracy falling apart when the Executive Branch refuses to listen to the Judicial Branch... at the encouragement of Vice President Vance. Buckle up!Hello! Are you enjoying This is America? This pod is hosted on The Cycle On Substack- a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.I don't need your extra time but I do need you to share this pod with your friends and family and then ask them to share it with THEIR friends and family. Without love in the dream it will never come true. Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

Checked In for the Checked OutThis week Rachel and Aaron take a tumble through the spin cycle of Donald Trump's second full week in office, which included chaos and confusion, a stock market nose-dive, another off-the-rails news conference, pissed off allies, economic uncertainty and threats of a new consumer tax. They also take the temperature on batshit crazy Senate confirmation hearings and share some thoughts about the incoming leader of the DNC.Links: Letter to senators from Caroline Kennedy re: her cousin Bobby Our Book: Hit 'Em Where It Hurts: How to Save Democracy by Beating Republicans at Their Own Game (Crown, 2024) The Cycle on SubstackLike what you hear??? Tell your friends and family about it! The Cycle- On Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

This week Rachel and Aaron dive into the deliberately exhausting 'shock and awe' strategy by Trump 2.0, drawing comparisons to the "Working Toward the Fuhrer" strategy of 1930s Germany. They also discuss a powerful warning from the New York Times, coffee, inflation, shrinkflation, what you need to know about ongoing confirmation hearings in the U.S. Senate, and some tough love from... The Daily Show.The Cycle- On Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Thanks for reading The Cycle- On Substack! This post is public so feel free to share it. Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

History does not replicate like DNA, but it echoes. It's echoing now. Welcome to This is America Episode 1: Oh s**t, there goes the neighborhood Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

If you've been following the transition of the Republican Party from the party of Reagan into whatever the hell it is now you'll know that the once “useful idiots” of the Republican Party, the Christian Right, now rule the party and they have big plans for Trump 2.0.As Dr. Taylor points out in our interview about his book The Violent Take it by Force: The Christian Movement that is Threatening our Democracy, for all the attention January 6th received, a key part of that story has been largely ignored. Along with bear spray, confederate flags, and combat gear, Christian nationalist iconography was all over the insurrection. In fact, you might remember watching this motley crew of Trump loyalists anointing their violent take over of our nation's heart of democracy with a group prayer. You may also remember the 2023 reporting that Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito flew something called The Appeal to Heaven Flag many of us were introduced to for the first time on January 6th flying at the highest peak of the Alito family flag poll at various points since 2020. Even worse, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson flies on on his office door right there in Capitol Hill. And worse yet, our likely Trumpian Defense Secretary is an out and proud Christian Nationalist who, I s**t you not, is a fan of the Crusades. THE CRUSADES. So what in the hell does it all mean??! What are these religious fanatics planning for the rest of us? That's why I've brought Matthew D. Taylor, a senior scholar at the Institute for Islamic, Christian, and Jewish Studies on for a conversation about the Christian Nationalist movement and what we should expect from them as they ascend to power for the first time in American history. Don't miss this conversation because the survival of the separation of church and state depends on it. Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

Today's pod is with Rachel Maddow producer and editor of Maddow Blog Steve Benen and his important new book Ministry of Truth: Democracy, Reality, and the Republican'' War on the Recent Reality. Benen's important book documents how Republicans managed how to rewrite the history of recent events like January 6th and COVID to make millions of people believe in a false reality for something they saw with their very own eyes. Despite the deserved attention on Republicans efforts to white wash American history, very little scholarship has explored how Republicans use their propaganda system and coordination to shape public narratives that have no basis in reality. That makes this work critical. Although the presidential race remains a toss up, advantage Harris, I for one think it is prudent to consider a Trump win scenario and what it might mean both in the short and long term. I want to be clear, by acknowledging Trump can win, I am not suggesting he will win, but as my good friend Edna says “luck favors the prepared.”Benen's book documents how Trump and MAGA media disappeared recent history for millions of Americans, right before their own eyes and will be a valuable tool for that brave new world should we end up living in it.Catch our conversation and buy the book! Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

Its Holocaust Remembrance Day. Not only did Hitler and his Nazis murder 6 million Jews in the Holocaust, its HOW they murdered them you should know more about.After first being dispossessed of their businesses and homes, then being "ghettoized," the Jews began to be "deported East." Deported East meant being packed like sardines into a cattle car sometimes for a week or more with NO WATER, let alone food. People died standing up and the trains were full of excrement. Once they arrived they walked into a carefully laid trap. They didn't know it, but they faced the first of what would come to define the life of the people who ended up with the Auschwitz tattoos: selection. At Auschwitz, between 10-30% of each train load was "selected for work." The rest, men, women, children, and babies were "selected" to be gassed. At its height in 42/43, the German's killing machinery was performing at its peak, murdering and burnings thousands of humans a day. To make their murder machine work, they needed to keep their victims docile. So, using Jewish prisoners to unload and process those "selected for death" into the gas chambers, these "Sonderkommando" were forced to calm those condemned to death with lies about getting showered and deloused and about what would happen next. If they did not, they would be immediately murdered themselves. The Nazis actually staged the train platform with fake "to the showers" signs and even went so far as to tell people with just seconds left to live to fold their clothes and make sure they can refind them. Anything to get their 1,000 or so victims to walk willingly into the shower room with its fake faucets. If you were "lucky" in the Holocaust, the Nazis selected you to be worked till death. Selected for work was what stood for "luck" in Auschwitz. The most important thing you need to remember this year is that what happened to the Jews happened by the intentional "othering" of the Jews by a tyrannical despot. There was nothing special about the millions of Germans who became silent accomplices to the near total destruction of European Jewry. There was nothing special about the Germans then, or us now. We must stop Donald Trump and his MAGA movement here, now. The whole world is watching. In Episode 2 of Shadowboxing the Apocalypse Ep. 2: How the Nazis Seized Power I bring historian and author of The Death Democracy Benjamin Hett back onto the pod to discuss how Hitler went from being sworn in as a weak chancellor on January 30, 1933 to suspending the German Constitution and outlawing the opposition in less than 60 days. The Cycle- On Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Some of you may know I am also using twitter (which is by far my biggest audience) to try to draw attention to the parallels between our current crisis and the fall of democracy in Germany. This work, which I call Project 1933 is tied to the Republican Party's Transition to Autocracy plans laid out in the Heritage Foundation's Manual for Leadership, more commonly known as Project 2025. I've been tweeting the Nazi's quick rise to fascist autocracy in real time as events unfold in Germany in 1933. Please check it out if you are not already and if you are already, PLEASE RT THOSE TWEETS!!(Editors Note: If you are not familiar with Project 2025 yet, please AT LEAST read this which will cover the most important points). Have you read my book, which is reshaping how Democrats do elections?! Well, what are you waiting for?! Thank you for reading The Cycle- On Substack. This post is public so feel free to share it.. Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

https://arkansasadvocate.com/2022/10/05/study-more-republicans-than-democrats-likely-died-of-covid/Researcher Max Taves closes his analysis in David Cay Johnston's DC Report by asking a very important question: “Republican politicians can talk all they want about how pro-life they are, but these data defy and belie their rhetoric. Facts are stubborn things.So what does it say about a political party which incessantly promotes its respect for life and yet whose states' policies overwhelmingly and repeatedly produce the highest rates of death from cancer, heart disease, kidney disease, Alzheimer's, influenza, diabetes, traffic accidents, guns, workplace accidents, suicides and murders?How pro-life can Republican states be when their own constituents literally get less life?”Taves' analysis comparing health and death outcomes between Red and Blue states reveal a shocking and inescapable conclusion: Republican policies kill people. Pick any metric, from covid death rates, to heart disease and diabetes, cancer, car accidents, to gun suicides, Taves shows that Red State's offer their residents a plethora of ways to die younger and poorer than folks in Blue States. As I always say, the data don't lie. Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

As soon as Heather Cox Richardson's new book Democracy Awakening: Notes on the State of America came across my algorithm I reached out and invited America's favorite academic back onto the show. HRC's newest book lays out how a small group of wealthy men financed and developed a right wing propaganda machine that 54+ years later, stands to topple America's nearly 250 year old democracy. But perhaps even more importantly, Cox-Richardson lays out how marginalized Americans of the past have risen up to meet their own historical moments and saved the American experiment in the process. Heather's right: if you have ever wondered what you would do during the Freedom Rides, WWII, the fight to end segregation, or the effort to hold America together during the Civil War, Heather deftly reminds us all: you're doing it right now. Folks! We're down to ONE WEEK before Hit ‘Em Where It Hurts: How to Save Democracy by Beating Republicans at their Own Game is released and I have BIG NEWS for you! Penguin Random House has given me special permission to give YOU a special preview of the book! Watch for that in the coming days and pre-order your copy RIGHT NOW!! Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

Like all good lefties, I cut my teeth in progressive politics learning all about the horrors of America's massive military industrial complex. In one of my very first college classes ever at the local community college, a passionate instructor who spent his spare time organizing peace marches against the Iraq War made sure each of his students left his class well-versed in America's overinvestment in defense spending and underinvestment in well, everything else.20 years ago I had zero appreciation for the reasons why America had amassed such tremendous military might. Like everyone else, I found America's disproportioned military budget to be one of our country's greatest sins. It was only 18 years later, after I undertook my exhaustive study of world history that I came to fully understand the antecedents that led American presidents of both parties to leave something called isolationism behind and lead America into creating by far the world's most powerful military. Instead, administration by administration, America fully embraced the concept of internationalism by building and continually reinforcing a military apparatus larger than the next ten countries combined. One large enough to “police” the entire world. So, before before you dig into this incredible conversation with Politico national security reporter Alexander Ward about his new book The Internationalists: The Fight to Restore American Foreign Policy After Trump I want to be sure you have a solid working definition of both these concepts: Isolationism: a policy of remaining apart from the affairs or interests of other groups, especially the political affairs of other countries.Interventionism: Interventionism is characterized by the use or threat of force or coercion to alter a political or cultural situation nominally outside the intervenor's moral or political jurisdiction.In short, in the early 20th century, isolationism became the dominant attitude among Americans who came to believe U.S. involvement in World War I was unnecessary, a product of messing in affairs isolationists believed had no impact on Americans and killed thousands of American men. The use of the word ‘believed' here is intentional because as appeasement (isolationism) failed to stop Hitler's aggressive plans to occupy and rule Europe it became obvious how war and turmoil abroad impacts Americans. Then the surprise attack by Japan on Pearl Harbor put a finer point on it: America ignores the rest of the world at its own peril. The rest, as they say, is history. Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

Throughout 2024 I plan on highlighting core grassroots organizations working on the frontlines of the Democratic Party's messaging revolution. Now, maybe you think the word “revolution” is too strong, but trust me, moving a party away from approaching voters with wonky policy appeals and achievements to focusing on making sure regular Americans know what the modern GOP has planned for them is no small reform. It requires a revolution of thought based on the cold, hard, realities of the American electorate i lay out in the book. In my forthcoming book Hit Em' Where it Hurts: How to Save Democracy By beating Republicans at their Own Game I highlight the other massive problem that hampers Democrats in terms of message distribution. You can have the greatest messaging in the world but it doesn't do s**t if no one sees it and folks, as I keep using google trend data to show how little Americans care about news and politics, no one sees it. This is the fundamental flaw behind the White House's efforts to lift Bidenomics: paid ads, speeches, and social content will never replace the ability of the right wing echo chamber to propel things, even false things like Joe Biden has dementia, to top-of-mind awareness which is what Democrats would have to accomplish to make voters responsive to Biden's record. Yes, message distribution is a tough nut to crack because it requires money, lots and lots of it. Which is why I want to talk to you today about something I call digital direct mail, but what you likely call memes and gifs. Direct mail is a staple expenditure for competitive campaigns and often voters in swing contests receive plenty of it even if you never do. In the book I highlight how much better Republicans tend to do with direct mail because they understand the target, the average voter, knows next to nothing about civics, cares even less, and will give the same direct mail your team agonized over for hours about 3 seconds of a glance before it is tossed directly into the recycling bin.Republicans understand voters and have constructed their direct mail to deliver the main message in just that one glance using very little copy. A rigorous direct mail campaign, one that targets voters with the multiple contacts research says voters need to actually show up and vote, easily runs l into the tens of thousands. It is expensive to produce and then distribution direct mail through the USPS. But when you strip down direct mail to its purpose, delivering a message, it is easy to see that the internet creates a massive message distribution advantage if campaigns choose to see it as such. That is why I'm delighted to introduce you to the Freedom Writer's Collaborative and one of their dedicated grassroots volunteers, marketing strategist Yvonne Brandon. Yvonne joins me to talk about the ready-to-use messaging toolkits created with the also awesome folks at DemCastUSA where the meme that leads of this post was pulled from. I hope you will consider using these toolkits, and even more importantly, getting your friends, family, and followers to do the same. Whether your network is 150 people, or 150, everyone is an influencer. FWC makes it easy. Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

The first time I posted about the harsh reality of America's collapsing democracy, it seemed like many folks were genuinely surprised to see that America is not actually the Greatest Democracy on Earth. According to the democracy index compiled by the EIU and published annually by The Economist, America is actually a “flawed” democracy. The United States was downgraded from “full” to “flawed” democracy after half of America handed the keys to the White House to a wannabe dictator-con man who immediately began to roll back civil liberties and ignore the rule of law. The Cycle- On Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Sadly, America's not even the best “flawed” democracy. Technically we're only the 6th best “flawed” democracy, one spot behind Israel (a state folks who have been mainlining antisemitic propaganda from Hamas for the past decade describe as an “apartheid state” of “colonizing” “oppressors” committing “genocide.”)That's why the very second I saw the topic Steve Levitsky's and Daniel Ziblatt's latest book, Tyranny of the Minority I knew I had to get them onto the show. In Tyranny, Levitsky and Ziblatt, who are both professors at Harvard and are also the authors of another important book you should definitely read titled How Democracies Die, have put their fingers right onto the pulse of something you need to understand: America's institutions are failing and must be reformed for our democracy to ever flourish again.Our institutions were brilliant constructs of an 18th century world and a newly born country with one common fear among its creators: too much consolidation of federal power. Thus, America's Constitution was constructed to remove the creation of policy from the direct control of its chief executive, which is why most Americans are familiar with the terms “checks and balances” and “separation of powers” even if they'd be hard-pressed to specify what it means exactly, or how it actually works, in any meaningful way. So concerned with the centralization of national power were the Founding Fathers that they codified checks and balances and separation of powers within each branch of government too.As America is painfully learning right now, the House of Representatives was given sole “first mover” power in the appropriations process even though the “power of the purse” was granted to Congress at large. We can not fund the government without the House of Representatives which is why having it closed for 3 weeks while the Republican Party fights over custody of the kids is so damaging to our domestic and foreign policy interests. Its why federal judicial appointments and treaty approval power belongs solely to the Senate. Its why Chief Justice John Marshall wasn't laughed out of the room when he asserted that the judicial branch had a “right of review” of actions taken by the legislative and executive branches in what went on to be called “judicial review.” Yes, the Founding Fathers were positively OBSESSED about centralized power and did everything they could to gum up the works and force compromise in a system designed with one main goal in mind: to avoid creating a tyranny of the majority. American institutions are designed to have a bias against action. It is very easy to propose legislative goals and very hard to actually enact them. This was true in America's best of times and this, my friends, is not the best of times. Fast forward 236 years and the very same institutional checks and balances that were supposed to protect us from a king have left America all but paralyzed on policy formation. Name a pressing policy problem and you'd be hard pressed to find Congress effectively legislating it despite robust public opinion begging for action on issues like immigration reform, climate change, and gun safety. So what happened? Why have the institutions that served our young Republic so well, for so long, suddenly feel like they're in danger of collapse? Listen and find out. The Cycle- On Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Thank you for reading The Cycle- On Substack. This post is public so feel free to share it. Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

What if I was to tell you the Republican Party's villain-in-chief, the main protagonist in the Republican Party's “Democrats are socialists” Big Lie, Representative Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez is an ideological moderate serving in a likewise still moderate Democratic Party? Understandably, you wouldn't believe me, so I would have to present some pretty compelling evidence to change your mind. Enter that evidence: VoteView. What is VoteView? VoteView is a data analysis tool built by a group of now famous political scientists that measures the ideological behavior of members of Congress, from it's very first session to the current 118th. It does so in an innovative way. Rather than look at members' campaign platforms, policy position memos, ads, and stump speeches for their stated ideology, VoteView populates its ideology scores using the non-unanimous roll call votes of members of Congress. Each vote, on each contentious bill, by each member of the House, and each senator, enters a model as a series of meaningless 0s and 1s which indicate whether each member who voted on a vote voted yeah or nay. This means the model calculates an ideological score without even knowing who the member is, what each vote was about, which party the member serves in, or whether they serve in a swing or safe seat. The scores range from -1 to 1 with -1 being the most liberal score and 1 being the most conservative. IIt is important to understand how to interpret VoteView scores. -1 to +1 is a narrow scale, the difference so between a 0.5 score and a 0.8 score is substantial! In VoteView a score equal or less than 0.5 (positive or negative) is a “moderate” score. A score like positive or negative 0.8 means the member is a strong ideologue. The Cycle- On Substack is a reader-supported publication on a mission to bring better strategy to the Democratic Party. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. #TeamDemocracyUnlike member scores from GovTrack, VoteView is blind to the topic of the vote AND (and this is very important) plots ideology for each member as they relate to every other member of both parties. This means that we can get a full, largely unbiased, measurement of each member's ideology, but we can also measure ideological change across both time and chamber of Congress (House or Senate). In plain English, that means we can compare how polarized Congress has been across different points of America's 236 years of constitutional history. As you can see from the graph below (which does not yet include the current 118th session) the ideological distribution of each party in the House and Senate has changed considerably across time. The gaps between the red line (Republicans) and the blue line (Democrats) have narrowed and enlarged at different points of American political development. A large gap between the red and blue lines means high levels of polarization. Now, look closely at the two yellow loops I marked out and you will see we are currently as polarized as we were in the 1850s heading into Civil War. Good times! You should also be able to see that Republicans have moved further to the right than Democrats have moved to the left. The data don't lie: Republicans have polarized more than Democrats in Congress. Mapped Ideology of the Legislative Branch: 1st session to the 117th Session Now, lets take a look at what VoteView data can tell us about the ideological make-up of the 118th Congress, our current Congress. Ideology of the 118th House of Representatives Ideology of the 118th Senate What you are seeing above are two plot graphs that show the ideology scores for each of the 435 current members of the House and 100 members of the Senate. Again, the blue dots are Democrats, the red dots are Republicans. The axis of relevance here is the X axis (the bottom axis) which displays a dot for each member of each respective chamber to show where they fall along that -1 to 1 ideology score range. Two things that should stand out are the number of red dots versus blue dots that are on the respective ellipses (ends) as well as proximity of each cluster of dots to the middle of the plot because that middle reflects ideological scores close to 0 (perfect moderation) while the ellipses are scores that max out as very conservative/very liberal. If you look closely, you should see a clear asymmetry between the parties in terms of ideological extremism. Here's a fun fact: there are 7 Republican senators who are more conservative than Elizabeth Warren is liberal (Schmitt, Tuberville, Paul, Lee, Vance, Cruz, Braun) and although Warren is by far the most liberal Democrat in the senate (liberal score of -0.752) she is nowhere near as liberal as Mike Lee and Rand Paul are conservative (0.891, respectively). She is an outlier, they are an entire caucus. As for AOC?AOC is just the 180th most liberal Democrat in the House of Representatives. Given that there are only currently 212 Democrats, that's pretty damn moderate! Now, you might be wondering, “Rachel, what does this even mean?” It means that America doesn't have a “both sides” problem, it has a Republican Party problem. And that, my friends, brings us to my conversation with David Corn about his recent book American Psychosis: A Historical Investigation of How the Republican Party Went Crazy, which is the feature of this Finally Back from Summer pod. As many of you know, Corn is the DC Bureau Chief of Mother Jones magazine and an intrepid investigative reporter who's so inside the Beltway he's outside it. What you may not know is that David offers a newsletter called Our Land which you can subscribe to here. So, how exactly did the Republican Party go crazy? It's a long story that begins…BIG NEWS!!!My magnum opus Hit ‘Em Where It Hurts: How to Save Democracy by Beating Republicans at their Own Game (Crown 2024) is available for pre-order RIGHT NOW! The Cycle- On Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Thank you for reading The Cycle- On Substack. This post is public so feel free to share it. Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

I first learned about Way to Win when they published an analysis after the 2020 cycle empirically demonstrating the weakness of the Democratic Party's messaging strategy against the GOP's in the 2020 cycle. While Republican's focused on branding Democrats as dangerous socialists intent on destroying America, Democrats were branding Republicans as good friends they just couldn't wait to work with it! The poll-tested value of telling swing voters how great the other party is and how much you can't wait to work with them is pretty high, but the electoral viability of such a strategy is low, very low. In 2020, Democrats running on bipartisanship underperformed in “down ballot” elections losing 13 seats in the House and dropping winnable senate races in North Carolina and Maine that would have given Democrat's the power to reform the filibuster. So, heading into 2022, I was hyper-focused on getting Democrats to understand that because most Americans don't follow the news, especially not political news, if you want them to know the Republican Party has collapsed into a dangerous cult that's coming after their health, wealth, and freedom, you damn well better tell them yourself! Way to Win is on the frontline of groups working to bring that exact message to the masses and played a key role in helping to push Democrats to run on the Supreme Court's evisceration of Roe. In this episode I talk with Jennifer Ancona, co-creator and VP of Way to Win, about Way's MUST READ analysis of 2022 midterm messaging and how new messaging strategies helped Democrats defeat the Republican Party's “red wave” against all the odds. If you want more Democrats to find a Way to Win, donate to support Way's CRITICAL work right now!Thank you for reading The Cycle- On Substack. This post is public so feel free to share it. Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

If you want to get someone out of a cult, Dr. Steven Hassan is your man. Inspired to a career focused on cults by his own personal experience being tricked into joining one, Dr. Hassan has spent decades researching, writing, and talking about cults and is skilled at getting folks out of them. In fact, he literally wrote the manual on understanding and breaking cult allegiance, Combating Cult Mind Control (4th edition), which I strongly urge you to check out, ESPECIALLY if like me, you've lost friends and relatives into the Cult of Trump.Dr. Hassan has also created an excellent free resource called Freedom of Mind Resource Center which provides a wealth of information on how to help someone escape a cult. Especially compelling is Dr. Hassan's recent Ted Talk How to Tell If You're Brainwashed where you will learn some easy to implement techniques to bring your MAGA relatives back to reality. Please keep in mind, our Republican friends and relatives are victims of a targeted, intentional, well-funded multi-decade propaganda operation. They are NOT going to fix themselves. As the good Dr. points out, the only people that can save victims of the Republican's propaganda system are the people they have long term personal relationships with. In other words, if not you, who? Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

Two years or so again I began an extensive research project into the totalitarian movements of the 1920s and 1930, with a heavy emphasis on Germany and Italy whose totalitarians regimes hailed from the political right. When I started this research project I knew very little about the process by which the National Socialists actually rose to power, this despite holding both a college degree and a PhD in political science. My general knowledge was limited to the major battles of WWII and what was by far the Nazi's worse crime: the systemic slaughter of 6 million Jews in the Holocaust. With the tail end of the chaos of the Trump Administration and the Republican Party's attempt to seize power after the 2020 election, what I wanted from my research was to feel better about the durability of democracy in America. Instead, it made me feel worse. MUCH worse. Turns out, how fascism rises is a tale as old as time, and its one that has profound implications for America's current democratic woes. That means it's a tale that must be told. This is the first in a series of episodes designed to bring what I've learned the past two years to you and hopefully from you, to your friends, relatives, and other associates. To assist with this effort, I'm teaming up with real experts on the Third Reich and on authoritarianism to talk about different aspects of how exactly, the Nazis seized power. Today's expert is Benjamin Hett, Professor of History at Hunter College and the Graduate Center at the City University of New York, author of the must-read book The Death of Democracy: Hitler's Rise to Power and the Downfall of the Weimar Republic. Whether it is the Weimer Republic in Germany, pre-Mussolini Italy, modern Hungary, or most Cold War Russia, the common thread behind every successful totalitarian movement is underreaction by the rest of society while there is still time to stop them. Once the crisis is obvious to everyone, it is already far too late. Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

Leigh McGowen, of IamPoliticsGirl and The Politics Girl pod fame, intrinsically gets the purpose, the proper forms, and the distribution realties of modern messaging. That's why I was jazzed to bring my fellow messaging (and messy bun) aficionado onto The Cycle to talk about her rise as one of the Democratic Party's brightest and best messaging stars. Leigh has launched Politics Girl on YouTube so PLEASE SUBSCRIBE NOW. You'll find links to all of her great messaging content in one convenient space! So, what happens when you bring two fiery suburban mom messaging reformers together in one pod? You'll have to listen to find out. Spoiler Alert: Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

If you find polling interesting or frustrating (or both!) this is the episode for you! U-Mass Amherst pollster and Associate Professor Alex Theodoridis is on the pod to talk about challenges facing modern polling and how to properly conduct and present survey results given the impacts on mass behavior of hyperpartisanship, which you should think of as partisanship, but on steroids. In addition to the above conversation I want to make damn sure you see Alex's data drop from their latest poll, which quite clearly illustrates the effect propaganda is having on rank and file Republicans (and ONLY on them) in regards to mainstreaming the very dangerous Great Replacement Theory. Right wing media has been working hard to lay down the antecedents to the same type of dehumanizing “othering” perfected by Joseph Goebbels for the Nazis and folks, IT'S WORKING. What you are looking at is data being properly reported out to account for the reality that political survey data must now be analyzed broken down by party, with each party's independent “leaners” added to the pool of admitted partisans. You see “All respondents” which is the collective responses from everyone surveyed, followed by the responses by party group. The poll question, “Do some elected officials want to increase immigration to bring in obedient voters to vote for them,” is derived from a narrative increasingly common on top-grossing Fox News shows such as Tucker Carlson's show. The first graph, subtitled “all respondents” shows the collective opinion of all people surveyed and finds 37% of all respondents agree, or strongly agree, with the statement. It is important to note that Alex and team, quite shrewdly in my estimate, left their question free of a partisan “nudge.” There is nothing in the survey question that provides a partisan “clue” as to which party is for, or against, the viewpoint because partisan cues are so powerful I once used an experimental survey design to demonstrate I could move support for cap & trade by 40 points among Republican respondents simply by telling respondents Republicans proposed the policy! Thus, this pool of respondents were given NO HINT of the “proper” partisan position. This is why the data reported is especially notable because as we look at the responses broken down by party, nearly half of Republicans and their leaners STRONLY AGREE with the statement. The best point of comparison is the “pure” independent pool (no leaners) where just 21% of respondents strongly agree. Two main takeaways here, folks. One, Great Replacement Theory is now a mainstream, near majority, attitude among rank and file Republican voters That's REALLY bad because as we're already seeing that when you've been brainwashed into thinking your facing an existential race crisis, you do crazy s**t like armed insurrections and ordering drive bys on Democrats. But its also important because it quite clearly quantifies what I will call the GOP's propaganda effect. It is real, it is measurable, and it is coming for democracy. Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

When you have to google the spelling of “cuckold",” you know you're about to drop a hot pod! The Liberty Way reads like some kind of modern Footloose, forcing students to adhere to a moral code so strict, you expect the punishments to include stoning. That's why the revelation that when “America's largest Christian university's” President Jerry Falwell Jr. and his wife Becki Falwell have a “cuckold” itch, they sneak off to South Beach to scratch, its a REALLY BIG DEAL. And because Falwell Jr. had the good sense to be exposed as the world's biggest religious hypocrite during the heavy news cycles of the Trump Administration he helped create by handing America's evangelicals to Donald Trump on a silver platter, this particular scandal may have slipped past you. That's a damn shame because it couldn't have happened to a more deserving person, which is why I'm deeply grateful to Miami filmmaker Billy Corben not only for making a doc about Falwell's sex scandal, but making it so compelling you have to watch it all. And as Billy says, “good night and good cuck.” Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

Did you know that in order to advance in ‘degrees' in the Proud Boys you have to vow to stop jacking off so you can unleash your pent-up violence on your innocent victims?! That's why you NEED a copy of Andy Campbell's new book: We Are Proud Boys: How A Rightwing Street Gang Ushered In A New Era Of American Extremism. I haven't had a chance yet to present the sum of my research into the collapse of democracies and the rise of totalitarians, but rest assured, I intend to spend the next year of my life impressing upon you just how far down the fascism rabbit hole America has already slipped. Especially in the formation of the violent, right-wing domestic terrorism groups American law seems hapless to preemptively address. We'll kick off our year-long effort with a look at Nazi militias like the Proud Boys, which Republicans have spent the past few years normalizing and legitimating. The “extremism” beat is usually a lonely beat, but that was before the American Republican Party decided to collapse into a fascist cult. Now it is one of the most important, and dangerous, beats in contemporary journalism. That's why you should give Andy Campbell an immediate follow and pick up a copy of his book, RIGHT NOW! Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

In this short, but spirited conversation, Tom Bonier of Target Smart and Simon Rosenberg of NDN and host of the With Democrats, Things Get Better series, joins me on the pod to laugh at the Republican Party's red tinkle. Target Smart, it is the Democrat's premier voter targeting firm and creator of the incredible Target Early tool, which allows users to easily and quickly access critical information such as registration and voter turnout. Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

I'm excited to bring you this conversation with Francesca Tripodi, Assistant Professor at the School of Library Info and Library Science & senior researcher at the Center for Info, Tech, and Public Life at the venerable UNC-Chapel Hill. We discuss her new book, The Propagandists' Playbook: How Conservative Elites Manipulate Search and Threaten Democracy, which is a deep dive into how the Right dominates social media. This book and pod is a must read/listen for anyone involved in social media, from big time influencers to regular digital activists looking to maximize their online reach. I'll leave it at that. Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

Michigan state senator Mallory McMorrow opened her now famous speech on the floor of the Michigan senate by calling out the reason her Republican senate colleague chose to target her in a fundraising email that is part of a party-wide effort to brand Democrats as child groomers (proof positive of QANON’s continued influence in the modern Republican Party).McMorrow knew why she was personally targeted, saying it is “because I am the biggest threat to your hollow, hateful scheme because you can’t claim you’re targeting marginalized kids in the name of quote ‘parental rights’ if another parent is standing up to say no.” Sadly, McMorrow is right that it matters she is a “straight, white, Christian, suburban mom” because above all else in 2022, Democrats must convince white suburbia that the modern Republican Party is not fit to govern a democracy and disqualify their structural predisposition to ‘change’ which is the mechanism that drives the midterm effect among swing voters. To win in 2022, Democrats need to drive their own coalition of voters to the polls to dominate the turnout game, while simultaneously pushing the small, but critical, pool of swing voters away from casting ballots for Republicans-any Republican. If Democrats fail to do so, control of Congress will flip to an anti-democratic, fascist-curious Republican Party who as of today, intends to use that power to help reinstall an insurrectionist into the most powerful office on Earth. What McMorrow then dished out to her Michigan Republican colleagues was precisely the kind of offensive, matrix-breaking, moral outrage messaging Democrats up and down ballots and across America must bring to bear in their own campaigns if they hope to defeat a radicalized, frankly dangerous, Republican Party this fall. Though “the speech” is well known, what is lesser known is the story behind the woman who gave it. Activated by the election of Trump Mallory McMorrow rode her “incandescent rage” from being a postcard-writing grass-roots activist, to flipping a Republican-held state senate seat in 2018. I love her story so much because it could easily be yours. We need 1,000 Mallory McMorrows out there on the stump. If we had them, we wouldn’t be in this mess. Maybe YOU are the next one? Redistricted into a safe seat, McMorrow is now lending her considerable political talents and her small, but mighty, war chest to one of the most important offensive efforts for Democrats at the state legislative level in the 2022 cycle: flipping both chambers of the Michigan state legislature. Thanks to the ballot initiative process and Michigan’s voters, Republicans must face free and fair districts for the first time in decades in Michigan leaving them uniquely vulnerable to defeat this cycle. SOGive Michigan some love! Editors note: “Democrats are child groomers” emerged as one of the most often cited rationales by Trump supporters for their “anything goes” tolerance to the boss’s behavior. It is designed to win elections, of course. But it is also serves to dehumanize Democrats in order to justify past and potentially future acts of political violence. It is critical for everyone working for democracy to understand what will be coming at Democratic candidates already running against hostile in-party fundamentals this fall, and why the GOP has settled on such a noxious line of attack. Whatever strategy Democrats ultimately settle on, it will have to compete against the Republicans’ no-holds-barred approach to 2022. Please consider supporting my efforts with this substack with a subscription, paid or for free (and PLEASE do not do paid if you are broke!) Paid subscriptions allow me the time and resources to devote to this project. Another fantastic way for you to support this effort is by sharing it on your social media accounts. Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

If “guilt by association” also works for “coolness by association” I have officially arrived! Its not every day that I get someone who has interviewed the President of the United States to come onto the pod (though I should probably note I’ve had at least 3 on here) but STILL! She’s an academic so it counts for more! When THE HCR (as some of her fans refer to her) agreed to come onto The Cycle I was…. I was especially keen to talk to Heather about America’s current democratic crisis which has half the country at least fascist-curious. BUT, I also wanted to give you folks a glimpse into Heather herself- what motivated her efforts to bring her scholarship to a mass audience and why its resonated with so many people. If you somehow haven’t heard of heather until now, I strongly recommend you subscribe to her #1 substack, check out her pod cast Now & Then, and check out her SIX books on American history. Like this podcast? Consider subscribing to support its production and sharing it with your friends! Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome to Political Behavior 454! Today I am going to expose you to one of several research books that have come out in the past few years that help explain modern political behavior, which is distinct from political behavior of previous decades in several measurable and important ways. Dr. Jonathan Weiler, Director of Undergraduate Global Studies at UNC-Chapel Hill and co-author of Pick Up or Prius: How the Answers to Four Simple Questions Explain American’s Great Political Divide is on the show today to help you understand just how profound the “divide” between the Left and the Right is. So exactly what are these 4 questions that are so powerful they can “explain our political divide?” You’ll have to listen to find out! Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

I’ve had a lot of fascinating conversations with my Cycle guests, but this pod with David Pepper, former chair of the Ohio Democratic Party and author of what Politico Mag calls “the thriller that predicted the Russia Scandal,” is one for the record books. His new book, Laboratories of Democracy: A Wake Up Call From Behind The Lines takes you into the complex world of state politics- a strange new world with new life, and new civilizations that pass legislation via simple majorities. When you agree with the legislative agenda of the party controlling your state and a “simple majority” system is everything the federal system is not: responsive, efficient, competent. Federalism and simple majority requirements allows states to serve as what Justice Brandeis "called “laboratories of democracy.” Some of America’s best policies have been grown in these labs. But now, the Republican Party, is using states to pass a veritable smorgasbord of radical, even fascist policies aimed specifically at giving conservatives direct control over modern American culture. Why? Because by the late 1980s it was clear to the Republican Party’s oligarchs the “culture” ship had already sailed, stranding them at port. So they devised a new strategy. Instead of fighting culture, they’d simply criminalize it. The Republican Party spent more than 20 years building the power and infrastructure it needs for this moment. You can ignore it, but I promise it won’t ignore you. Thank you for reading The Cycle- On Substack. This post is public so feel free to share it. Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

Believe it or not, when George W. Bush ran for the Republican Party’s nomination in 2000, he was able to at least tacitly support reauthorizing the Federal Assault Weapons Ban of 1994, which was set to expire in 2004. Yep, you read that right. As radical as they might have seemed to you back then, as of 2000 most of the Republican Party was still quite sane, and intent on being a governing party. Their insanity didn’t really start until the mid-2000s, after Karl Rove demonstrated the power of base politics and everything went to s**t. Imagine that, party nominees with an incentive to cater somewhat to members of the opposition party to win national elections. Those were the days! If you are a subscriber to The Cycle (I love you all, but I most especially love those subsidizing my efforts to save democracy via a paid subscription) you likely have decent working knowledge of the politics of gun control, the GOP’s nearly 20 year obstruction of literally ANY reform, and the radicalization of the NRA under Wayne Lapierre. In Gun Politics: My Battle Against the Industry that Radicalized the Rest of America, gun industry insider-turned-whistleblower Ryan Busse gives us what old school radio icon Paul Harvey called, “the rest of the story.” And what a story it is! If you want to hear it, you’ll need to tune in! Also, don’t forget to buy Ryan’s book at any fine independent book store (or Amazon if you’re lazy like me). Can’t afford a subscription? PLEASE use the free subscription option- I don’t judge! Who isn’t broke right now. What matters to me is you get the info. And remember, its tots free to share this pod with your friends so they don’t miss out on all the fun (and the profanity!) Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

Mary Trump has been very busy since she first emerged on the national stage after sacrificing much to share thousands of personal records documenting Trump family corruption with investigators from the New York Times.She doubled down on her gift to America by next releasing audio of Trump’s federal judge sister admitting his entire schtick is an immoral long con. In other words, Mary Trump is one bad ass motherf*cker. Two books later, and a podcast you should be sure to check out, Mary is making her 2nd appearance here on The Cycle to discuss her latest book, The Reckoning: Our Nation’s Trauma and Finding a Way to Heal. Enjoy! Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

When I first spotted the title of my friend Tom Nichols’ new book I knew it needed to serve as the opening pod cast for season 2. Why? Because Tom’s excellent thesis, that 80 years of peace, prosperity, improving life conditions, and tech have led us to what I call a “decadence" issue. Put simply, Americans are so comfortable, and so far removed from past tribulations, they have done what comfortable people do: turned their angst both inward, and towards the respectively trivial. In short, we’re fat, happy, comfortable and charging head first into a self-imposed chaos mostly out of boredom. I refuse to tell you anymore about his book, if you want to know, you’ll have to listen to this short, but critical conversation on why Americans have become Our Own Worst Enemy. Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

Political scientists of the future will no doubt burn a lot of digital ink trying to identify where things went off the rails in 21st century America. Like the first shot of the Civil War, the near-collapse of our democracy in 2020 and 2021 stand out as pinnacle moments in what is, at least for now, a “cold” Civil War. With the rule of law under severe strain from the full-frontal assault against it by President Trump and his Republican Party peers, the GOP is increasingly using control of government at the state level to codify their anti-democratic efforts. As my friends Cornell Belcher, Kurt Bardella, and I tried to make as clear, a country in which one of its two ruling parties is changing laws to consolidate power and to undermine democracy’s most sacred tenet, free and fair elections, we have moved way beyond a Susan Collin’s “very concerned” and into So, to say that author Brynn Tannehill’s in her new book American Fascism: How the GOP is Subverting Democracy is timely is an understatement. Tannehill adopts a “watch what they do, not [just] what they say” approach to her meticulously researched book to answer THE core question of our time: is the modern Republican Party developing into an Americanized version of german or Italian fascism? The fascism label may sound like nothing more than the same type of rhetorical red meat thrown about by the Right accusing Democrats of “socialism.” But two things make contemporaneous concerns about the Right adopting fascism distinct and very different than the Right’s accusations of socialism on the Left. The first is the GOP, unlike the obscure and powerless socialists of the far left, is now controlled by its radical factions. Extremists now hold critical party leadership positions at both the state and federal level. The second distinction is the GOP is already using unilateral control in states like Texas, Georgia, Florida, Arizona, Oklahoma, and South Dakota, to redefine government- allowing governors to usurp local authority implementing legislation to undermine free and fair elections. Al Gore called impending climate change from man-made activities an “inconvenient truth” in his seminal lecture of the same name, presented as a documentary in the early 2000s. The collapse of America’s conservative party into fascism is our second “inconvenient truth.” Gore’s clarion call about climate change failed to provoke action.Will we make that mistake twice? Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

Friends, I’m sorry about the hiatus for the pod so many of you have graciously endured while I launched Strike Pac, prepped my house for my exodus back out West, and dealt with my appendix trying to murder me. That so many of you suffered in silence was not lost on me, and is massively appreciated. Y’all are some really good humans! Also, before I get into the summary of the pod, I am now at a place where I can start to incorporate some of Strike Pac’s work into the paid subscriber only content/opportunities and start paying you guys back for all of your support (and patience). I happen to owe my paid subscriber crew a special preview opportunity. SO, I am going to host a paid-subscribers sneak preview at our next ad that includes a panel discussion with some of my Strike PAC team mates. Watch for that in your inbox in the coming days. Now, with no further ado, I hope you enjoy my fiery conversation with the great Kurt Anderson, a multiple New York Times bestseller and author of Evil Geniuses: The Unmaking of America. As I tell Kurt in our conversation, his book pulls together two of the most important elements that drive my work. The first is that nothing that happened to move our economy from post-New Deal Keynesian economics to a redux of Gilded Age economics was accidental. The GOP came to dominate economic policy, regulatory policies, and other core policy areas because they created short and long term strategic plans created by smart people to do so. AND they executed them. I want to highlight that because that is, of course, lies at the heart of what I am trying to build for Democrats. One of the largest disadvantages Democrats face in the polarized era is the belief that there is some inherent inability for Democrats to centralize their strategy to compete with the GOP. Not only can we, we must! The second point ties closely with my economic branding strategies. Kurt’s work in Evil Geniuses clearly explains how and why the Republican Party’s “Reagan Revolution” ended up decimating the American middle class, killing social mobility, strangled Johnson’s Great Society in infancy, and yielded American infrastructure and research superiority to pay for tax cuts for their billionaire donors. My job is to distill the above indictment of the Republican Party’s failed economic policies into hard-hitting, emotive ads and hopefully, get all Democratic candidates hammering this message. Your job is to listen to this pod & read Kurt’s book. Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

When UC-San Diego political science Associate Professor Seth Hill and his co-authors dropped their latest article in the journal Science Advances, the title immediately caught my eye. That title was “Not by turnout alone: Measuring the sources of electoral change, 2012 to 2016.” Now, having spent the better part of 2 years arguing with people about the role of turnout on electoral outcomes, my immediate thought was, “why are they burying the lead here?” That’s because from my perspective, the novel finding is turnout does, in fact impact election outcomes. That a small portion of Independents, largely the 5%-10% of the electorate we call “pure” Independents switch from one party’s candidates to the other party’s candidates, often cycle-to-cycle, is what I consider the status quo. But demonstrating turnout rates of various demographic groups within each party’s coalition (what the authors call “composition” explains at least a portion of the variance in party electoral performance cycle-to-cycle? Let’s just say that before that became the new conventional wisdom, it helped make me a pariah on Election Twitter after I waded into an ongoing “this not that” debate I was previously blissfully unaware of. Its not just that the authors of this analysis deploy a really artful research design to tease out “conversion” versus “composition” effects on vote outcomes in the 2012 and 2016 cycles. That alone makes this research some of the most consequential political behavior work to be released in the last few years, at least in my biased opinion. What really makes this analysis interesting is that the authors demonstrate party asymmetry in “conversion” versus “composition” impact. Republican vote share is more influenced by “conversion,” while Democratic vote share is more heavily influenced by “composition.” But wait, that’s not all! The authors also discover that a state’s status as a “realigning” versus “dealigning” state also matters. In states moving towards competition for Democrats such as Georgia, the composition effect is more powerful. But in states moving away from competition, like in the Midwest, conversion is more powerful. And that’s with just 2012 and 2016 data before turnout really juiced! This led me to ask Seth Hill, the guest on this episode’s pod about what he expects the 2020 data to look like. And a whole lot more interesting questions that you definitely don’t want to miss! Rachel Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe

In his very first podcast, Professor Emeritus at University of California, San Diego and prolific political scientist Gary Jacobson previews the 2020 updates to his longitudinal research on key voting behaviors of the American electorate. If you’re wondering what it means to say America’s politics have “nationalized” Jacobson’s research has you covered. Get full access to The Cycle- On Substack at thecycle.substack.com/subscribe