Podcast appearances and mentions of joe brusuelas

Joe Brusuelas isn't expecting the Fed to cut interest rates, though he expects the real fireworks will come from the FOMC's press conference. Joe doesn't expect to hear anything on stagflation or recession but remains concerned about the job market. He explains how tariffs can leave lasting impacts on employment, especially in warehouse and trucking.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Joe Brusuelas says "when everything is an ongoing negotiation" there's uncertainty about how tariffs will be digested domestically and abroad. He points to Alcoa (AA) as one company that could suffer because of the potential hit to the steel industry. Joe believes the U.S. will start with a 20% universal tariff, or potentially a tiered level based on trade. Joe believes Mexico and the United Kingdom will be among the first countries to come to a deal with the U.S.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Joe Brusuelas reacts to Friday's jobs report after January non-farm payrolls came in below expectations. He says some of the report is “seasonal noise,” and says mentions of job cuts in earnings reports have “dropped off the charts.” He thinks there is disinflation in wages, which makes the Fed's September cut “look a lot better.” He also reacts to tariffs, particularly on food items.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Joe Brusuelas says “American exceptionalism” is the most accurate description of the U.S. economy right now. He thinks the labor market is balanced now, taking away the need for rate cuts, though he says that could change under Trump's administration. He also covers the U.S. dollar, which he says can't go much higher without hurting manufacturing. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Joe Brusuelas estimates a 55% chance that the U.S. economy grows 2.5% or more in 2025. He says the last year built a floor for the market to build on. As for the Fed, Joe is "on board" for two rate cuts next year but won't be surprised to see an even narrower rate cut path. He later turns to the A.I. front to determine how companies like Nvidia (NVDA) fit into the economic big picture. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-... Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-... Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/19192... Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplu... Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-net... Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Joe Brusuelas breaks down the November Jobs report, focusing on wages and on people who still have difficulty finding employment. He discusses “technological unemployment”, or the idea that people are losing jobs because of robot takeovers. He is concerned about immigration pressures on unemployment and how it could impact the Fed. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The Fed voted unanimously to cut 25BPS from rates in its latest meeting, but Joe Brusuelas argues the decision sets up a pause in its rate cutting cycle. He turns to employment and inflation data to explain why. With a Trump administration on the horizon, Joe also says the change in leadership will come with a push to lower rates faster despite inflation "not being a real risk" in the near-term. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6D Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Markets reacted strongly to a positive September jobs report. Joe Brusuelas says that makes the case for a 25BPS rate cut in November and a slower cut cycle to come. Joe also looks at the jobs picture heading into the holiday season. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The US economy isn't doing as well as you think—it's doing even better. While mainstream media outlets and grocery prices may make you feel that the US economy is struggling, the data points to something different. Inflation is getting under control, the Fed is about to lower rates, recession risks could be shrinking, and a long-term growth trend is emerging. The American economy is leading what Joe Brusuelas calls the “global recovery.” Named 2023 “Best Rate Forecaster” by Bloomberg, Joe has an unmatched view of the economy at a macro and microeconomic level. Today, we're talking to Joe about the state of the US economy and why it's outperforming global players like China. Joe shares the “secret sauce” that is helping the US take center stage in global economic growth, which could keep us on course to see continued economic success for years to come. But, with China's economy showing cracks, the Middle East conflict getting more tense by the day, and the risk of recession still top of mind, what's next for the US economy? Joe gives his economic outlook and shares the most significant risks the US economy could face, plus why he sees a BIG Fed rate cut coming in 2025.  In This Episode We Cover The state of the US economy and why we're seeing such unmatched economic growth The “secret sauce” that makes the American economy particularly efficient China's growing economic troubles and whether it could bleed into the US economy Fed rate cut predictions and why we may see a BIG drop in rates by this time next year Joe's US economic forecast and the regions of the US real estate investors MUST watch Commercial real estate risks and whether we should still be worried about “the wall” of maturing debt And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Find Investor-Friendly Lenders See Dave at BPCON2024 in Cancun! Dave's BiggerPockets Profile On The Market Podcast 196 - China Falters, Israel's Oil Danger, and Russia's Assets Used Against Them w/Joe Brusuelas Learn More from Joe Grab Dave's Newest Book, “Start with Strategy” Jump to topic: 00:00 Intro 01:51 US Economy is Booming  06:52 Recession Risk? 08:43 China's Economic Trap  13:31 Will This Hurt the US? 14:45 Middle East Oil Risks  17:42 US Economic Forecast  25:27 What Commercial Crash?  27:28 Fed Rate Cuts Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and  https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-253 Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kathy and Liz Ann discuss this week's expectations around the upcoming jobs report and its influence on the Fed. Their discussion highlights the importance of full employment and wage growth for the Fed. The conversation also mentions other important metrics like long-term unemployment, part-time versus full-time employment, and hours worked. The recent data on service-sector activity, initial unemployment claims, and continuing claims suggest a weakening job market. Then, Kathy Jones is joined by Joe Brusuelas, who is an economist with RSM. He has expertise in U.S. monetary policy and labor markets. They discuss the potential for rate cuts, the impact of technology on productivity, the rising budget deficit, and geopolitical risks—as well as the specific challenges faced by middle-market companies, such as elevated financing costs and labor shortages. Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann offer their outlook on the week's upcoming economic indicators.On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important DisclosuresThe information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and cannot protect against losses in a declining market.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.The information and content provided herein is general in nature and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended, and should not be construed, as a specific recommendation, individualized tax, legal, or investment advice. Tax laws are subject to change, either prospectively or retroactively. Where specific advice is necessary or appropriate, individuals should contact their own professional tax and investment advisors or other professionals (CPA, Financial Planner, Investment Manager) to help answer questions about specific situations or needs prior to taking any action based upon this information.Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.ISM is the Institute for Supply Management. https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.(0724-BGNH)

Are U.S. CEOs feeling confident? The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index measures the health of the U.S. economy from the perspective of U.S. chief executives. We discuss why this survey matters for investors and the markets with Joe Brusuelas, principal and chief economist for assurance and tax consulting firm RSM US. We continue the conversation on CEOs' outlook with Everette Taylor, CEO of global crowdfunding platform Kickstarter. Taylor shares his view on CEO confidence and his expectations for the future. Also, is supercore inflation back? We talk with WSJ's Justin Lahart about what Tuesday's CPI inflation report could mean for investors and the markets. How can we better help you take on the week? Send us an email to takeontheweek@wsj.com.   Further Reading What is Supercore Inflation?  Forget Core CPI, Market Pros Are Searching for Supercore Inflation  Kickstarter's Biggest Winners and Biggest Losers  A Turbulent Year May Lie Ahead—CEOs at Davos Are Optimistic  For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com.  Correction: The CEO Economic Outlook Index is produced by Business Roundtable. An earlier version of this podcast incorrectly referenced a different report, the Conference Board's CEO Confidence Survey. In addition, the Business Roundtable report was released ahead of schedule, after the interviews in this episode were conducted but before the episode aired. An earlier version said the report would be released on March 13. (Corrected on March 12)

China's economy is on its last legs. Thanks to massive overspending and high unemployment, the Chinese economy is beginning to break down, with real estate prices crashing at a scale similar to 2008 in the US. This is bad news for not only Chinese investors but also global investors with money in China. But could these tumultuous conditions spill over into the global economy? We've got arguably the world's best economic forecaster, Joe Brusuelas, back on the show to get his take on the global economy and what could be next for the US. Joe has studied the Chinese economy in-depth and sees a “debt and deleveraging period” forming. This is bad for Chinese investors, but will it affect the US housing market? Next, Joe speaks on the other global crises, from Israel to Ukraine to Iran and beyond. With our global reliance on importing commodities like wheat and oil, how risky are we getting with the massive Middle East and Eastern European conflicts? Finally, Joe touches on domestic trends, including one substantial economic insight that could point to a new era of economic productivity in the US. This could be game-changing for you if you own stocks, bonds, real estate, or any other US-based investments. What trend are we talking about? Stick around; we're getting into it all in this episode! In This Episode We Cover: China's “debt trap” and how they massively slowed down economic growth The “bad bank” solution that China could (but probably won't) use to solve their housing crisis How the US and India could become the primary economic forces in the global economy The “risk matrix” and what could cause an oil crisis due to the Middle East conflict  How the US may use Russia's assets against them in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict  A huge economic indicator pointing to a new era of productivity for the US economy And So Much More! Links from the Show Find an Agent Find a Lender BiggerPockets Forums BiggerPockets Agent BiggerPockets Bootcamps Join BiggerPockets for FREE On The Market Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums Subscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube Channel Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Dave's Instagram Henry's BiggerPockets Profile Joe's Articles Joe's LinkedIn Joe's X/Twitter  BiggerPockets' Instagram Hear Our Last Interview with Joe On The “New Era” Of Higher Prices, Interest Rates, and Employment Is the Global Economy About to Collapse? Inside China's Real Estate Crisis Click here to listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-196 Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Department of Labor issued the largest methodological 30 year change in the way they account of the Jobless Claims data. Joe Brusuelas says that the revisions go back to June 2021 and account for layoffs in the business, professional, finance, and tech services. He still expects a 3.5% unemployment rate. The jobs report tomorrow will indicate whether laid off tech employees are getting employed quickly or not. Brusuelas says that if we go below 200K, that may be a one and done for the Federal Reserve.

Unemployment was supposed to be much higher by now. With the Federal Reserve increasing its rate hikes over 2022 and into 2023, the labor market should have cracked already. But it hasn't, and many mainstream investors have struggled to determine why. With a higher cost of capital, businesses should be more selective with who they're hiring and keeping, but instead, we're seeing the labor market have much more power than they've had in the past. So, did we successfully dodge an employment crisis, or is a rude awakening coming our way? Joe Brusuelas, principal and chief economist for RSM US LLP, knows that we're thinking about unemployment all wrong. As a leading economist with over twenty years of experience, Joe has seen multiple recessions, crashes, and unemployment crises. He knows exactly what it would take to make the labor market snap and push the country into a recession. Joe breaks down precisely what the Federal Reserve has been planning, when its interest rate hikes will finally take effect, and what the future of the labor market looks like. He also touches on how we may be entering an entirely different era of the economy, one with tight employment, higher interest rates, and higher inflation than we've been used to. This directly affects almost every consumer in America, and investors can get ahead of the economy by knowing when this unemployment scale will finally balance. So don't sit on the sidelines and be surprised when these economic forces take shape. Tune in! In This Episode We Cover Why unemployment has been so low and when the Fed's interest rate hikes will kick in How employment is calculated and why qualified workers are so hard to find  “Labor hoarding” and the real reason big tech is so easily laying off workers  Unemployment rate predictions and whether it'll be like the last recession  Entering a new era of the economy and why higher inflation, interest rates, and employment could be in our future  US immigration and how restricting foreign worker flow has caused a “tight” labor market  And So Much More! Links from the Show Find an Investor-Friendly Real Estate Agent BiggerPockets Forums BiggerPockets Agent BiggerPockets Bootcamps Join BiggerPockets for FREE On The Market Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums Subscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube Channel Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Dave's Instagram How the Unemployment Rate Affects Us All (Yes, Even the Employed) Connect with Joe: Joe's Articles Joe's Email  Joe's Twitter   Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-88 Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com.

With the jobs reports, more jobs have been created than anticipated. "We are in an economy that is overheated as the employment market is red hot. This reflects an overheated economy and policy needs to be adjusted to that fact. My sense is that the Federal Reserve will be at a 50BPS interest rate hike. This is despite the sell-off we are seeing in financial markets around the potential unrealized losses in the banking sector. The markets are functioning with balance sheet analytics, price discovery, and a potential private capital situation," says Joe Brusuelas.

"The U.S. economy has decelerated a bit in contrast to a year ago around holiday spending. Actually, the U.S. economy is fairly resilient. Much of the improvement in inflation outlook is due to the collapse of transportation costs. The increase supply of consumer goods implies a further decline in inflation. I am predicting a 25BPS increase in the next FOMC meeting," says Joe Brusuelas.

The chief economist of RSM US, Joe Brusuelas examines the prospects for recession, and what accountants should be paying attention to on behalf of their clients. 

The Fed raises rates 50 BPS. Joe Brusuelas discusses the Fed's announcement. He talks about how the Fed repeated that "ongoing" rate increases are likely appropriate. He notes that only two policy makers project year-end 2023 Fed funds rate to be below 5%. He then goes over how the Fed sees core PCE inflation at 3.5% in 2023 versus 3.1% prior. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

We're going to see a resetting of wages higher at the turn of the year, says Joe Brusuelas. He discusses the Employment Situation for November 2022. He talks about how this is the prime-age for the labor force participation rate. He also goes over the outlook for inflation heading into 2023, as well as what's next for the U.S. economy. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

The dollar is not going to be peaking anytime soon, says Joe Brusuelas. He discusses how the FOMC raised rates 75BPS which is the highest level since January 2008. He talks about when the Fed will pause and ascertain the lag impact on the real economy. He then goes over how the Fed notes that Russia's war in Ukraine is causing human and economic hardship. Tune in to find out more about the latest Fed news and the stock market today.

The labor market remains robust even though domestic demand probably is slowing, says Dana Peterson. She and Joe Brusuelas discuss the most recent jobless claims report. They talk about the key takeaways from today's jobless claims data. They then go over what rising jobless claims data means for the overall economy. Finally, they mention the outlook for the economy in a high inflationary environment. Tune in to find out more.

The Federal Reserve announced it will leave interest rates unchanged at 0.25% in the FOMC minutes released Wednesday, Nov. 3 2021. Here The Watch List panelists Joe Brusuelas and Ben Lichtenstein discuss the central bank's decision to begin tapering, or slowing the pace of bond buying, this month, as well as plans to accelerate the pace of tapering in December. By staying the course, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hopefully commented that the U.S. should reach max employment levels by the middle of 2022.

The recent sell-off is residual damage from the Softbank trade being unwound, according to Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM. Brusuelas says "Real Money" traders are pulling back on risk due to what's going on in the political sector, and a portion of retail traders are shifting their money back into sports betting. We also react to the Wells Fargo CEO blaming a lack of diversity on "a very limited pool of Black talent to recruit from," and discuss the controversy surrounding electric vehicle company Nikola and its founder Trevor Milton. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/market-banter/message

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking about the economy with Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US. Politicians and market participants can't get complacent about the economy despite a string of positive reports, says Brusuelas. The economy is only operating at 80% capacity. While there have been "V-shaped" recoveries in financial services (markets), manufacturing, and housing, the service sector remains highly impaired. The result is a "K-shaped" economy, with the upward part of the K representing those select industries bouncing nicely, and the lower part of the K representing the devastating damage elsewhere. As for another major fiscal stimulus package, Brusuelas is certain it's needed. For those who say the economy continues to rebound despite the previous stimulus running out at the end of July, he reminds that much of August's celebrated economic numbers - including last Friday's nonfarm payrolls (1.37M jobs added, unemployment rate tumbling to 8.4%) - takes data from early in the month, i.e. prior to the true effect of the exhaustion of the stimulus benefits. Brusuelas suspects that economic reports in September and October will be a far better measure of how the economy has responded to the money running out.

How damaging will the economic impact of coronavirus be? With billions of people all over the world in lockdown, whole sectors of the economy at a standstill, and a global jobs crisis looming, how can middle-market businesses  make it through? In this episode, resident host Jon Cronin is joined by RSM UK partner Simon Hart and Joe Brusuelas, the chief economist at RSM US. Listen in as Jon, Simon, and Joe explain the economic impact of coronavirus and give practical advice for adapting your people and operations for the new normal. 

Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RCM, says the risks of a sub-par recovery are rising as uncertainty over the outcome of the coronavirus pandemic drags on, and while he still believes that there will be a swoosh-shaped 'elongated and frustratingly slow recovery,' he says even that can't happen until the market knows how the pandemic will be resolved. In the Market Call, Barry James of the James Advantage Funds says investors need to be looking at securities in different time periods -- BC and AD, for 'before coronavirus' and 'after disease' -- and notes that the pandemic has injected a little more subjectivity into stock research right now. Also, Chuck answers a question from the audience, and Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a new fund based on a market niche that is in the news the 'ETF of the Week.'

This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking about the market fallout from the coronavirus with LPL Financial's Ryan Detrick and the economic fallout with RSM's Joe Brusuelas. Editor's note: This podcast was recorded on Friday March 6th - prior to the weekend collapse in the oil price adding to the coronavirus panic. Detrick has been prepping clients for a pullback for some time, and he notes the correction at the time of recording (just over 12%) was roughly inline with other annual peak-to-trough measures in recent years. What's unusual this time is the massive flight to safety as seen in the huge declines in Treasury yields. Yes, says Detrick, there will be an economic slowdown coming up, but stocks and yields at the moment are pricing in something way more than that. What may put a stop to the selloff might not even have to be good economic news, but instead just less-weak-than-feared data. Were you aware that stocks in China - ground-zero for the coronavirus - are at two-year highs? Whether or not one believes the government figures that the damage from the coronavirus has been contained, says Detrick, the financial flows don't lie - money is moving into Chinese shares. Bottom line, says Detrick, the earnings yield on the S&P 500 is in the neighborhood of 5%, while the 10-year Treasury yield is below 1%. That's a spread of more than 400 basis points - one of the cheapest reads on that measure going back 70 years. Cheap can absolutely become cheaper, but Detrick and team are telling clients stocks will outperform bonds over the next 12 months. It's a highly unusual three-way shock facing the U.S. economy, says Joe Brusuelas - that's a supply shock, a demand shock, and a market shock. Even with all that, he's not expecting a recession, but instead an H1 slowdown to less than 1% growth (mostly to be seen in Q2 data). The Fed cut was necessary, says Brusuelas, even if it might be ineffective at addressing the causes of the recent troubles. The issue, he argues, is that nothing - for now - is moving on the fiscal side, and that's what's really going to be needed to combat this slowdown. Going forward, these shocks are going to manifest themselves in bankruptcies and unemployment, particularly as it relates to small- and medium-sized enterprises. The president and Congress are going to need to work together and be creative. This president and this Congress? Yes, says Brusuelas, and if things get bad enough, the two branches will find common ground to get things through. Even something like the payroll tax break that's been bandied about is a great idea. Brusuelas reminds that this was a feature of the crisis response in the Obama administration, so there is some precedent. Brusuelas looks at plenty of indicators, but if he had to pick just one it would be the 13-week moving average of initial jobless claims. When it moves above 242K, it's time to get worried. While only about 212K now, the layoffs at the West Coast ports have begun, says Brusuelas. He figures it'll take about 2-3 weeks before those begin to translate into the jobless claims numbers.

The penalties associated with the U.S.’ move include asking the IMF to increase surveillance of China's currency practices. The United States could also deny Chinese companies access to financing from the Overseas Private Investment Corporation and prohibit them from bidding on U.S. government procurement contracts. But those do not kick until after a year under the authorizing statute. However, the Commerce Department has previously proposed treating undervalued currencies as an illegal trade subsidy. If that becomes final, Treasury's designation could help open the floodgates to a number of trade remedies cases seeking countervailing duties on Chinese goods. Treasury's action "is more symbolic than anything at this point and aimed at Trump's hard core political base that he will need to shore up now that the economy is broadly decelerating in part due to the trade conflict," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. "Moreover, it marks the start of a process that my end in the Trump administration attempting to devalue the dollar." That possibility was also on the minds of other economists, given Trump's concern that the strength of the dollar hurts the United States in international trade by making its exports more expensive. "China will view this as unjustified and, therefore, is likely to retaliate, thereby signaling further tension escalation," said Mohamed A. El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz. "It signals a new step in the weaponization of economic instruments, also raising the probability of both trade and currency wars." Some feared a replay of the disastrous replay of U.S. actions under the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in the 1930s and tit-for-tat responses by other countries that many blame for prolonging the Great Depression.

In this episode of “The Middle Market Transformative CEO,” Dawn Zier, former CEO of Nutrisystem and current president & COO of Tivity Health, shares the significance of digital expansion, the importance of working with brand ambassadors, and determining the most effective advertising avenues. Listen as Zier, along with co-hosts Joe Brusuelas and Robert Reiss, discusses the recent merger of Nutrisystem, Inc. and Tivity Health, how the acquisition aligns with the future of health and wellness, how she implemented and led a turnaround strategy for Nutrisystem, and the importance of embracing cutting-edge technologies to better serve customers.

In this episode of “The Middle Market Transformative CEO,” Chris McCann, president and CEO of 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc., shares how the company is adjusting to the digital economy and how it embraces new technologies, the importance of fostering a culture of innovation and attracting the right talent, and how the company approaches customer service. McCann, along with co-hosts Joe Brusuelas and Robert Reiss, discusses how 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. is shifting the way it interacts with customers through a multitude of cutting-edge technologies, how the digital revolution is affecting middle market businesses and how the company’s culture of innovation continues to transform the company and its digital strategy.

Joining in on today's conversation is Randy Schwimmer, Head of Capital Markets & Originations at Churchill Asset Management, on the lending landscape and the health of the middle market. We also have John Authers, Bloomberg Senior Editor for Markets and a Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, on the latest Brexit news and updates. Also joining in on the conversation is Charles Massimo, CEO of CJM Wealth Management and Founder of Autism Communities, on the financial impact of autism, and their upcoming fundraiser. And joining in studio is Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM, on RSM’s GDP forecast and his predictions for the U.S. economy. Hosted by Lisa Abramowicz and Paul Sweeney.

In this episode of “The Middle Market Transformative CEO,” Chris Miglino, CEO and Founder of Social Reality, Inc. (NASDAQ: SRAX), a digital marketing and consumer data management technology company, discusses what data ownership will look like in the future, why it’s imperative that middle market companies embrace big data and artificial intelligence, and the future of privacy and related legislation in regard to consumer data. Listen as co-hosts Joe Brusuelas and Robert Reiss speak with Miglino about the company’s business model, and how it aggregates and sells data, how the firm is changing the dynamic between companies and customers to help consumers value their individual information, and the importance of big data and artificial intelligence for the middle market.

In this episode of “The Middle Market Transformative CEO,” Scott Deviney, president and CEO of Chicken Salad Chick, discusses how the company differentiates itself from others in the food and beverage sector, what it’s like to run a large franchise business and the role that supply chain plays in the success of the company. Listen as Deviney, along with hosts Joe Brusuelas and Robert Reiss, talks about the strategy behind the product development process, the importance of serving customers “from the heart” to create a memorable guest experience, how the company approaches expansion across different geographical markets, and why it’s imperative that franchise philosophies and goals support the company’s business model.

Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, speaks with MMG's editor-in-chief about what U.S. middle-market managers should be watching as the economy slows and risk factors mount, notably the trade dispute with China. He weighs in on the likelihood of a 2019 recession in the U.S., the impact of the Fed's decision to pause its rate hikes, and how to plan for NAFTA modernization. Brusuelas also discusses his middle-market reading recommendations: a paper from the San Francisco Federal Reserve titled “How Much Could Negative Rates Have Helped the Recovery?”, and “Capitalism without Capital: The Rise of the Intangible Economy” by Jonathan Haskel and Stian Westlake.

Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said that his rcession-probability model is showing a 20 percent chance of an economic downturn this year, but that investors should expect a recession in 2020 or '21, noting that while it should be a 'garden-variety recession,' the situation with the Fed could make any meltdown much worse. Also, economist Edward Goldberg of NYU said that American and China are coming to a truce -- and not a win or a loss -- in the trade wars, Tom Lydon looked at an emerging-markets ETF as his 'ETF of the Week,' and Chuck answered an question from an audience member.

RSM US chief economist Joe Brusuelas lays out the national and international issues facing the economic landscape over the next 12 months.

In this episode of “The Middle Market Transformative CEO,” Jack Mitchell, chairman of Mitchell Stores, touches on the importance of personalizing customer service, how the state of the economy has affected the retail industry, and how he implements his metaphorical “Hug Your Customers” philosophy to drive success and inspire his people. Listen as Mitchell, along with hosts Joe Brusuelas and Robert Reiss, discusses leveraging data analytics to improve the customer experience, adapting to the impact of the Great Recession and planning for the future of the company, and navigating governance in middle market family-owned businesses.

In this episode of “The Middle Market Transformative CEO,” Travis Hollman, president and CEO of locker manufacturer Hollman Inc., talks about shifting the company’s focus and business strategy, expanding the business internationally, and creating Hollman Inc.’s Higher Education & Learning Programs (HELPs), which offers tuition to fulltime employees and their eligible dependents through North Lake College. Listen as Hollman, along with hosts Joe Brusuelas and Robert Reiss, discusses demonstrating the value proposition of a product to prospective clients; focusing on a niche market and how that can create opportunities for acceleration; determining what the most important factors are when deciding where to expand geographically; and the role that HELPs plays at Hollman.

Drew French, founder and president of Your Pie, sat down with “The Middle Market Transformative CEO” hosts, Joe Brusuelas and Robert Reiss, to discuss how his made-to-order pizza chain mixes flavors to match markets. In this episode, Drew shares the importance of proactive hiring, converting customer research into strategic marketing, and how technology and social media helped Your Pie stay ahead of the competition.

Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, joined MMG Editor Kathryn Mulligan to provide an economic update for the middle market, including how the tight labor market, trade tensions and monetary policy will impact midsize companies. Brusuelas expects the labor shortage will lead to production bottlenecks next year, prompting companies to substitute robotics and automation for human labor, and he outlined why it's essential that middle-market participants closely watch moves from the Federal Reserve. Additional insight into these topics is available in RSM's latest Real Economy report, available at https://rsmus.com/economics/the-real-economy.

In this episode of “The Middle Market Transformative CEO,” Cengage CEO Michael Hansen talks about new business models, financial turnaround, and the impact of technology and artificial intelligence on the textbook industry. Along with hosts Joe Brusuelas and Robert Reiss, Hansen discusses how the company’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy process brought a period of stability, why it implemented a subscription business model, and how its data can transform the classroom and the workplace.

Joe Brusuelas, chief economist from RSM in the United States, joins Henrietta Brealey and Dan Harrison to provide a transatlantic perspective on Brexit - and discuss what a future UK-USA trade deal might look like. Joe was speaking ahead of his appearance at the British American Business Council conference in Birmingham.

There's not an aspect of modern life that won't be affected by advances in robotics and artificial intelligence in the coming years. But the impact will be especially felt in transportation and distribution. The science of robotics has made huge leaps in recent years, to the point where robots are taking over an increasing number of tasks that once were the exclusive province of humans. And the future promises to be even more disruptive. One study predicts that by the year 2050, up to 47 percent of all current employment will be affected by robotics and automation. To explain the trend and its implications on the workplace, we speak on this episode with Joe Brusuelas, chief economist with the audit, tax and consulting firm RSM US LLP. He is the author of a recent analysis that appeared in The Real Economy, RSM's monthly economic publication devoted to business issues for the middle market. Brusuelas talks about the economic and regulatory drivers behind the new wave of robotics, and explains why transportation and warehousing will be particularly hard hit.

Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, talks about the recent inflationary trends and why the Federal Reserve will likely raise short-term rates in the next 60 days.  He also highlights a brand new economic indicator - created by RSM - that is one of the best at predicting the overall health and outlook of the U.S. economy. Joe then highlights the one huge risk that could derail the entire global economy.  In fact, he believes there is a 50/50 chance of this risk coming to fruition over the next 45 days. Lastly, Joe and Frank have a healthy debate on inflation vs. deflation - and which of these risks the Fed should be more concerned about over the next 6 to 12 months.

Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM US LLP, breaks down the "good and bad" of negative interest rates and what it means for individual investors.  He highlights the huge risks - including banks storing cash and a possible collapse in money market mutual funds - if the Federal Reserve follows Europe and Japan's negative interest rate policy.  Joe then talks about the SALT conference which is being held in Las Vegas next month.  He will be speaking alongside some of the greatest hedge fund managers, political figures, CEO's and creative thinkers including Mark Mobius, Kenneth Griffin, John Boehner, Lawrence Summers and Sam Zell.