Podcasts about The Conference Board

Our Thematics and U.S. Economics analysts Michelle Weaver and Arunima Sinha discuss how American consumers are planning to spend as they consider tariffs, inflation and potential new tax policies. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, U.S. Thematic and Equity strategist.Arunima Sinha: And I'm Arunima Sinha from the Global and U.S. Economics Teams.Michelle Weaver: Today – an encouraging update on the U.S. consumer.It's Tuesday, June 3rd at 10am in New York.Arunima, the last couple of months have been challenging not only for global markets, but also for everyday people and for individual households; and we heard pretty mixed information on the consumer throughout earning season. Quite a few different companies highlighted consumers being more choiceful, being more value oriented. All this to say is we're getting a little bit of a mixed message.In your opinion, how healthy is the U.S. consumer right now?Arunima Sinha: So, Michelle, I'm glad we're starting with the sort of up upbeat part of the consumer. The macro data on the consumer has been holding up pretty well so far. In the first quarter of [20]25, consumer spending has actually been running at a similar pace as the first quarter of [20]24. Nominal consumption spending grew 5.5 percent on a year-on-year basis. Goods were up almost 4 percent. Services were up more than 6 percent.So, all of that was good. What our takeaway was that we had a lot of strength in good spending, and that did probably reflect some of the pull forward on the back of tariff news. But that pace of growth suggests that there is an aggregate consumer. They have healthy balance sheets, and they're willing to spend.And then what's driving that consumption growth from our point of view. We think that labor market compensation has been running at a pretty steady pace so far. So more than 5.5 percent quarterly analyzed. PCE inflation has been running at just over 3 percent. And so even though equity markets did see some greater volatility, they didn't seem to impact the consumer at least in the first quarter of data. And so, we've had that consumer in a pretty good shape.But with all of this in the background, we know, tariffs have been in the news, and tariff fears have weighed heavily on consumer sentiment. But then tariff headlines have also become more positive lately, and consumers might be feeling more optimistic. What's your data showing?Michelle Weaver: So that really depends on what data you're looking at. We saw a pretty big rebound in consumer sentiment if you look at the Conference Board survey. But then we saw flat sentiment, when you look at the University of Michigan survey. These two surveys have some different questions in them, different subcomponents.But my favorite way to track consumer sentiment is our own proprietary consumer survey, which did show a pretty big pickup in sentiment towards the economy last month. And we saw sentiment rebound significantly for both conservatives and liberals.So, this wasn't just a matter of one political party, you know, having a change of opinion. Both sides did see an improvement in sentiment. Although consumer sentiment for conservatives improved off a much higher base. The percent of people reporting being very concerned about tariffs also fell this month. We saw that move from 43 percent to 38 percent after the reduction in tariffs on China. So, people are, you know, concerned a little bit less there. And that's been a really big thing people are watching.Arunima Sinha: Feeling better about the news is great. Are they actually planning to spend more?Michelle Weaver: So encouragingly we did also see a big rebound in consumers short term spending outlooks in the survey. 33 percent of consumers expect to spend more next month and 17 percent expect to spend less.So that gives us a net of positive 16 percent. This is in line with the five-year average level we saw there, and up really substantially from last month's reading of 5 percent. So, 5 percent to 16 percent. That's a pretty big improvement.We also saw spending plans rise across all income groups. though we did see the biggest pickup for higher income consumers and that figure moved from 12 percent to 31 percent. Additionally, we saw longer term spending plans – so what people are planning to spend over the next six months – also improve across all the categories we look at.Arunima Sinha: And were there any specific changes about how the consumers were responding to the tariff headlines?Michelle Weaver: Yeah, so people reported pulling forward some purchases, due to fear of tariff driven price increases. So, people were planning for this, similarly to what we saw with companies. They were doing a little bit of stockpiling. Consumers were doing this as well. So, our survey showed that over half of people said they accelerated some purchases over the past month to try and get ahead of potential tariff related price increases.And this did skew higher among upper income consumers. The categories that people cited at the top of the list for pull forward are non-perishable groceries, household items. So, both of those things you need in your day-to-day life. And then clothing and apparel as well, which I thought was interesting. But that's been one thing that's been in the news a lot that's heavily manufactured overseas.So, people were thinking about that. And this does align overall with our March survey data, where we asked what categories people were most concerned about seeing price increases. So, their behavior did line up with what they were concerned about in March.Arunima, your turn on tariffs now. The reason tariffs have been on consumer's minds is because of what they might mean for price levels and inflation. Throughout earning season, we heard a lot of companies talking about raising prices to offset the cost of tariffs. What has this looked like from an economist's perspective? Has this actually started to show up in the inflation data yet?Arunima Sinha: So not quite yet, and that's something that, as you might expect, we're tracking very, very closely. So, one of the things that our team did was to think about which types of goods or services were going to be impacted by inflation. And so, we think that that first order effects are going to be on goods. And we think that the effects could start to show up in the May data, but we really see that sequential pace of inflation starting to step up starting June. And then in our third quarter inflation estimate, we see that number peaking for the year. So, in the third quarter, we think that core PCE inflation number is going to be about 4.5 percent Q1-Q analyzed.Michelle Weaver: And then aside from tariffs and inflation, how are people going to be affected by a fiscal policy, specifically the tax bill that just passed the house?Arunima Sinha: So, the house version of the bill has government spending reductions that can be quite regressive for different cohorts of the consumer. So, we have, reductions around the Medicaid program, cuts to the SNAP program as well as possible elimination of the income driven loans repayment plans. So, all of these would have a pretty adverse impact on the lower income and the middle-income consumers.This could be – but will likely not be fully offset by the removal of taxes, on tips and overtime. And then on the other side, the higher income consumers could benefit from some of that increase in SALT caps. But overall, the jury is still out on how the aggregate consumer will be affected.Michelle Weaver: So, taking this all into account, the effects of fiscal policy, of tariff policy, of labor market income – what's your overall outlook on U.S. consumption for the rest of the year?Arunima Sinha: So, we recently published our mid-year outlook for U.S. economics and our forecast for consumption spending over 2025 and [20]26 does see the consumer slowing. And this is really due to three factors. The first is on the back of those greater tariffs and the uncertainty around them and the fact that we have slowing net immigration, we're going to be expecting a slowdown in the labor market. As the pace of hiring slows, you have a slower growth in labor market income. And that really is the main driver of aggregate consumption spending. And then as we talked about, we are expecting that pass through of higher tariffs into inflation, and that's going to impact real spending. And then finally the uncertainty around tariffs, the volatilities and equity markets could weigh on consumer spending; and may actually push the upper income cohorts, the big drivers of consumption spending in the economy, to have higher precautionary savings.And so, with all of that, we see our nominal consumption spending growth slowing down to about 3.9 percent by the end of this year.Michelle Weaver: Well a little unfortunate to wrap up on a more negative note, but we are seeing, you know, mixed messages – and some more positive data in the near term, at least. Arunima, thank you for taking the time to talk.Arunima Sinha: Thanks so much for having me, Michelle.Michelle Weaver: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the show and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Episode 546 - Dr. James R Gregory - Study Your Reader, Branding for Authors, action, adventure, and romanceWith 40 years of experience in advertising and branding, Jim is a leading expert on corporate brand management and is credited with developing strategies for measuring the power of brands and their impact on a corporation's financial performance. Most notable of the tools that Jim has developed is the CoreBrand Index (CBI), a quantitative research vehicle that continuously tracks the reputation and financial performance of over 800 publicly traded companies across 50 industries. Tenet Partners uses the CBI to help clients recognize how their brands compare with industry peers and how communications can impact corporate reputation and financial performance, which includes stock price and revenue growth.Dr. Gregory is a frequent speaker on the financial benefits of communications and brand management. Recent speaking engagements include The Conference Board, the Association of National Advertisers, and the National Investor Relations Institute.One of the key secrets to my success was my passion for writing. Over the next four decades, I wrote a series of business books that helped build not only our business brand but also my personal reputation. Some of the titles I crafted include “Marketing Corporate Image,” “Leveraging the Corporate Brand,” “Branding Across Borders,” “The Best of Branding,” and “Powerhouse, the Secrets of Corporate Branding.”After successfully exiting the business, I embarked on a new journey – writing fiction. I quickly discovered that my favorite genre was short reads in the form of novellas. Drawing upon my extensive business experiences, personal life, and current events, I craft stories that can be enjoyed in just one sitting, whether it's an evening at home or a cross-country flight.https://jamesrgregory-books.com/Support the show___https://livingthenextchapter.com/podcast produced by: https://truemediasolutions.ca/Coffee Refills are always appreciated, refill Dave's cup here, and thanks!https://buymeacoffee.com/truemediaca

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for May was released on Tuesday; Kevin has the details, discusses the information and offers his insights and perspective. The U.S. Commerce Department released the April Durable Goods Orders report: Kevin sorts through the data, explains the information and puts it into perspective. Americas Commercial Transportation Research Company and the Freight Transportation Research Associates Transportation Intelligence reported their respective April Class 8 Truck Orders numbers; Kevin discusses the results. Wards Intelligence reported April Class 8 Truck Sales; Kevin has the details. Oil and gas prices react to strong gasoline demand over the Memorial Day holiday, Russia's increased missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, the German Chancellor's an escalation, encouraging Ukrainian attacks deep into Russia and OPEC+'s anticipated announcement of crude oil output hike later this week.

The US President, Donald Trump's administration, has ordered its embassies abroad to pause new applications for student and exchange visitor visas as it prepares to expand social media vetting of foreign students. We hear from former US Education Secretary Arne Duncan – who was in office during Obama's presidency. Japanese-owned steelmaker Nippon Steel is expected to close its “partnership” with U.S. Steel at $55 per share, as the US media have reported. On Friday, last week, President Donald Trump said that he has cleared the deal. And Rahul Tandon hears how one woman's quest to buy only US-made goods has been surprisingly difficult. Throughout the programme, we will be joined by two guests on opposite sides of the world: Erin McLaughlin, Senior Economist, The Conference Board in the US, and Simon Littlewood, President of ACG Global or a business consultant based in Singapore.

The Conference Board's latest consumer confidence index notched its highest monthly increase in four years. To be clear, it was coming off a five-year low in April, but the jump still represents cooling trade war anxieties among American consumers. Also in this episode: The U.S. isn't the only country experiencing rising bond yields, durable goods orders fell in April and first-time home owners in Houston are saddled with climate-related cost burdens.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future. 

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger Picture The EU countries are realizing that they were headed down the the wrong path in regards to green energy, now they are reversing course. EU has now bent a knee to Trump and they will negotiate a trade deal. Countries around the world are making trade deals. Consumer sentiment is now rising and the window is now closing for the [DS]/[CB]. The [DS] is panicking because everyday that passes they lose more and more control. They have lost the funding, security clearances, the intelligence orgs and now the FBI has begun their investigation into the pipe bomber, SC leak and cocaine in the WH. Think logically, elections, judges and who was managing the WH. Pain. Majority of Americans say the US is on the right track.   Economy Energy Costs Now ‘Main Issue' For US Ally That Barred Nuclear Power Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said high energy costs are the most critical economic issue for her country  Italy has embraced green energy and enacted a ban on nuclear power that has lasted nearly 40 years, though the nation's Council of Ministers and Meloni have recently moved to reintroduce the technology, joining other European countries like Belgium, Denmark and Germany that are also reconsidering their turns away from nuclear power. Emanuele Orsini — the head of Italy's largest business lobby — called for Meloni to cut energy costs and pave the way for a return to nuclear energy at the annual assembly for Confindustria, where Meloni again acknowledged her country's energy problems, Reuters reported. “Our companies continue to suffer from an energy (price) surcharge of more than 35% over the European average, even reaching peaks of 80% when compared to the largest European countries,” Orsini said at the assembly, according to Reuters. Meloni has expressed support for expanding nuclear energy in Italy, as have other officials, including the Minister of Environment and Energy Security Gilberto Pichetto Fratin. Source: dailycaller.com   Trade with the United States of America. They will BOTH be very happy, and successful, if they do!!! (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");  US Consumers Now More Optimistic, Ending 5 Straight Months Of Decline In Confidence Index U.S. consumer confidence bounced back in May ending five straight months of decline and beating economists' expectations. The Consumer Confidence Index increased by 12.3 points in May to 98.0, up from 85.7 in April, according to a report released Tuesday by The Conference Board. This notably marked the first increase in consumer confidence in five months. The Conference Board's Present Situation Index, which is based on consumers' outlook on current business and job market conditions, increased 4.8 points in May to 135.9. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which is based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business and job market conditions, jumped 17.4 points to 72.8 in the same month. Source: dailycaller.com  Political/Rights Star Harvard Business Professor Who Studied Honesty Pays a Historic Price for a Faculty Member at School After Falsifying Her Findings on Multiple Studies   As The New York Post reported, Francesca Gino,

The Conference Board's latest consumer confidence index notched its highest monthly increase in four years. To be clear, it was coming off a five-year low in April, but the jump still represents cooling trade war anxieties among American consumers. Also in this episode: The U.S. isn't the only country experiencing rising bond yields, durable goods orders fell in April and first-time home owners in Houston are saddled with climate-related cost burdens.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future. 

Tariffs and stock market movements remained top of mind for consumers in May. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—showed modest improvement overall. Expectations for business conditions and the labor market inched up but stayed in pessimistic territory. The key bright spot was income expectations, which moved into positive territory, supported by a stronger stock market and early signs of progress on a trade deal with China.    Dana Peterson, Chief Economist and Leader of the Economy, Strategy & Finance Center at The Conference Board, sits down with Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators, and Erik Lundh, Senior Global Economist, to discuss the outlook for the US GDP, whether consumers are worried about a recession, and how the Fed might handle the current uncertainty.    00:38 Consumer Confidence in May   01:34 Impact of Tariffs and Financial Markets   04:08 Consumer Expectations and Spending   08:21 Inflation and Financial Concerns   13:03 Changes in US and Global Economic Forecasts   21:10 Factors Influencing Future Economic Outlook   22:46 Conclusion and Farewell  

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news a relief rally is underway on Wall Street, responding to the delays in tariffs by the US on EU goods.But first, an update of the overnight dairy Pulse auction where prices for both SMP and WMP slipped although less than the futures market had suggested. The WMP was down -2.7% in USD from the prior week's full event, and a bit more in NZD. To be fair both prices had risen sharply since April but this pullback still leaves it in a rising trend despite today's adjustment.Data releases resumed in the US after their weekend holiday with durable goods orders pulling back in April after the unusually strong March gains. The pullback was largely in line with what was expected however, -6.3% lower than the prior month but up +2.7% from a year ago. Perhaps worryingly, excluding aircraft orders, nomn-defence capital goods barely budged in April, a sign that boardrooms remain skittish about future investment.That was matched by the Dallas Fed's May factory survey where activity was reported flat with a decline in new orders.But consumers seem happier, according to the Conference Board's May survey of consumer sentiment. But it was a survey taken before the latest US threats on the EU, so there is a sense of 'relief rally' here after the China tariff pullback. However, despite the month-on-month gain, this indicator is still tracking lower on the longer term, still lower than year-ago levels.Sentiment will be challenged again soon. There were a couple of housing indicators out overnight, and both recorded falls in American house prices. The FHA one was spun as an improvement, but it wasn't. The S&P/Case-Shiller one was a gain but a tiny one and the least since mid-2023.The bond market isn't feeling any better. The latest US Treasury 2 year auction, although as well supported as usual, brought a median yield of 3.90%, up from 3.74% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.And we can note that pricing for Trump Media shares, a marketplace that basically attracts investors who are supporters, is doing terribly. TMTG is down -11% today, down -33% so far this year, down more than -50% from a year ago. To rescue itself, it says it wants to raise US$2.5 bln to shift into crypto investing. It is an idea not going down well with shareholders.Across the border, core Canadian business activity is struggling a bit too. April wholesale trade was down -0.9% from March. That is kind of a lot for a one-month impact, one that records the initial tariff-war skirmishes.Across the Pacific in China, profits at industrial firms rose +1.4% in the first four months of 2025 compared to the same four months in 2024, picking up from +0.8% growth in the January–March period. For April alone, that was a rise of +5.2% from April 2024. Having noted that, April 2024 was a weak base. Still, given the trade challenges, and that China's factories are still very export oriented and vulnerable to trade war risks, this has to be seen as a good result in the circumstances.And we should start to keep an eye on China's carmakers. It is attracting increasing scrutiny because the economic fundamentals seem to be leaking away and quite fast. It could be another 'property development' industry failure, and could have just as large consequences if it wobbles too. They have no problem making cars, and good ones. But not only are they making more than the world needs, there are serious questions as to whether they can sell them for more than they cost to make.We should probably note that South Korean consumer sentiment jumped in May, rising back to levels that were common in November 2024 and prior. The ugly confusion period when its president went full-Trump and tried a palace coup (which resulted in impeachment, one that was upheld by the courts) is now behind it and Koreans are breathing easier. The rule of law won against a power grab. South Koreans will vote in a snap presidential election on Tuesday, June 3.And still in South Korea, they should join the CPTPP and diversify its trade as part of the bloc in the face of US uncertainties, a senior trade ex-minister is saying. (New Zealand runs a huge trade deficit with Korea.)In the EU, consumer and business sentiment basically held steady in May, according to the latest update. The trade wars are not yet unnerving the Europeans.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.44%, and down -6 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,302/oz, and down -US$38 from yesterday.Oil prices are down -US$1 at just over US$60.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is still just under US$64/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down at 59.5 USc, a -½c retreat from yesterday at this time as commodity currencies are out of favour today. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at just on 92.3 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 52.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just over 67.6 and down -30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$110,309 and up another +1.2% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.2%.Check back with us at 2pm for the RBNZ's May Monetary Policy Statement and OCR review. As you will knwo by now, 'everyone' expects a -25 bps cut. But the outlook from there is reasonably clouded, so Governor Hawkesby's analysis at 3pm is keenly awaited. We will have full coverage.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

On Monday, the Conference Board released the April Leading Economic Index; Kevin talks about how two different news agencies covered the release; discusses the data, offers his insights and puts the information into historic perspective. The United Nations has forecast global economic growth for 2025 and 2026; Kevin takes a look at the information and offers his opinion and insights.

The 5:5:5 Good Game of Stupid Edition: Normal/Trump/Funny (to me)Normal93% of U.S. Executives Desire Board Member ReplacementsIn a recent survey conducted by PwC and The Conference Board, a substantial majority of senior executives in the U.S. expressed a desire for changes within their company's board of directors.The study revealed that 93% of the 520 top managers surveyed want at least one board member replaced, marking a record high in the survey's five-year history.The findings highlight growing tensions between management and boards, as 32% of executives reported board members interfering in day-to-day operations, a significant increase from 16% the previous year.Concerns were also raised about directors' performance being hindered by age and overcommitment, with 56% and 47% of respondents citing these issues, respectively.Tejon shareholders vote in activist investor, remove longtime directorAndrew Dakos received 19,785,261 proxy votes in favor to 17,338,888 against, which allowed him to unseat 24-year director Michael Winer, who received 821,536 in favor and 2,974,871 againstNew Jersey activist group Bulldog InvestorsPhillip Goldstein (19,757,851/17,342,618); Chair (2015-) and Director (1998-) Norman Metcalfe (81) somehow reelected (19,807,311/3,547,606) Shell Faces Fresh Legal Challenge Over Development of New Oil and Gas FieldsDutch environmental group Milieudefensie said by developing new fields, the oil and gas giant is in breach of legal duties to cut carbon emissionsStarbucks doubles down on baristas, not AI, to fix its customer crunchElon Musk says he will spend ‘a lot less' on future campaign donationsElon Musk commits to leading Tesla for next five yearsTrumpTrump tells Walmart to 'eat the tariffs' instead of raising pricesLA Port shipments fell 30% in early May after Trump tariffsMeet the New York Times CEO: She's outmaneuvering tech, Trump, and an industry in crisisMeredith Kopit Levien: the youngest person and second woman to lead the institution in its 173-year history.Business owners with unfortunately named companies face fallout thanks to Trump's war on wokeDavid Markley called his business DEI. which stands for Design Engineering Inc., long before the Trump backlash took off.Another business named DEI is the restaurant supply company owned by Ricardo Gomez.Trump signs bipartisan Take It Down Act to fight ‘revenge porn' and deepfakesTrump said that under the law, “anyone who intentionally distributes explicit images without the subject's consent will face up to three years of prison.In addition, this law establishes new civil liabilities for online platforms that refuse to take these images down promptly upon request. We will not tolerate online sexual exploitation.”Funny (to me)Engineers Reveal Robot That Takes Care of Old People So You Don't Have toNetflix Faces Backlash From Conservatives After Picking Up Sesame Street: 'W Is for Woke'UBS deploys AI analyst clones UBS has started using artificial intelligence to turn its analysts into avatars, sending videos of the simulated bankers to clients in a move the lender said would free up staff to focus on more productive tasks.JPMorgan CEO Dimon Still Intends to Step Down in Next Few Years. ‘It's Up to the Board.' Henry Schein Appoints Dan Daniel to Board of DirectorsFirst name is actually Williamformer EVP of Danaher Corporation

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US downgrade is seeing the trend of higher interest rates extend.And in the US, we have more negative signals. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) "plunged" by -1.0% in April, after declining sharply by -0.8% in March. The LEI has declined by -2.0% in the six-month period ending April and is now just shy of signaling 'recession' they say. But it is actually back lower than in the last Trump presidency when there was recession.At an investor day in New York, the boss of the US's largest bank, JPMorgan Chase, said investors are underestimating geopolitical and inflation risks. “Credit today is a bad risk,” he said earlier today. “The people who haven't been through a major downturn are missing the point about what can happen in credit.”In Canada, their largest province has announced a Budget that prioritises higher spending and larger deficits in the coming year in a direct effort to "protect Ontario". The next federal Canadian budget isn't due until at least September.In China, retail sales rose by +5.1% in April from the same month a year ago, moderating from March's over 1-year high of +5.9% and missing market estimates of +5.5%. But is was one of the still-good data releases from China, one that is in a rising trend and even better because they have virtually no inflation.Another positive data release from China came from their industrial production which grew by a claimed +6.1% in April from a year ago and better than the expected +5.5% gain. However, the latest figure eased from the +7.7% growth recorded in March. Meanwhile, electricity production rose only +0.9% in April, hardly supporting the much stronger industrial production data.China, which regulates the wholesale price of petrol and diesel, announced cuts overnight, to take effect immediately.Meanwhile their national real estate development investment fell sharply yet again, and the residential sector was down -9.6% from April last year. And prices for new, and previously-owned housing are still down sharply on a year-on-year basis even if there are small pockets of regional improvements.Meanwhile, Chinese residents trading foreign stocks or holding offshore accounts are being put on notice as authorities take fuller advantage of cross-border data to trace unreported earnings.In the EU, their economy is projected to grow by +1.1% in 2025 and +1.5% in 2026, and both are downgrades from the levels forecasted last autumn. This is according to the European Commission's Spring outlook. The downgrade is primarily attributed to the impact of rising tariffs and increased uncertainty stemming from recent abrupt shifts in US trade policy. On the inflation front, disinflation is now expected to proceed more rapidly than previously anticipated. Inflation in the Eurozone is projected to ease to 2.1% by mid-2025, reaching the ECB's target earlier than previously expected, and to decline further to 1.7% in 2026. And staying in Europe, we should probably note that BNPL giant Klarna, which also operates in New Zealand, is seeing its losses grow. In Q1-2025 they doubled to -US$100 mln as "consumer credit losses" rose sharply, even as revenue grew.Later today (at 4:30pm NZT), the Australian central bank will review its cash rate target, currently at 4.10%. It is widely expected to be cut by -25 bps to 3.85%. That would put it still above the New Zealand OCR at 3.50% and our official rate is also expected to be cut by -25% mid next week to 3.25%, restoring the differential. But although both cuts are expected and priced in, more attention will focus on the next likely shift. Some see the RBA 'done' at one cut with the next move a rise. Background inflation risks are still elevated there, their labour market isn't suffering, and growth prospects are still there even in the current turbulent world.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.47%, up a mere +3 bps from this time yesterday, but curves are steeper.The price of gold will start today at US$3227/oz, and up +US$25 from yesterday.Oil prices are holding again today at just over US$62.50/bbl in the US but the international Brent price is -50 USc lower at US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 58.9 USc, up +10 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 52.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just over 67.5 and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$105,393 and essentially unchanged from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate however at just under +/-2.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Consumer confidence serves as a vital statistical measurethat reflects how consumers feel about both current and anticipated economicconditions. It acts as a key indicator of the overall health of the economy.Recent data has shown a troubling decline in consumer confidence, a trend thatcould have significant ramifications for entrepreneurs.  In April, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Indexplummeted to its lowest level in five years, a stark indication of shiftingsentiments among consumers. Adding to this concerning picture, a recent surveyfrom The Associated Press-NORC Center revealed that nearly half of Americansare apprehensive about the prospect of a recession, highlighting widespreadanxiety about the economic landscape. Colin Walsh, who has successfully built and sold beautycompanies valued over half a billion dollars—most notably the sale of OUAI toProcter & Gamble—has navigated numerous challenges associated with scalingbusinesses while striving to maintain balance and fulfillment. His extensiveexperiences have greatly shaped his strategic approach at Procter &Gamble's Specialty Beauty division and are also central to his innovative newventure, YayDay. In our recent conversation, Colin delved into varioustopics, including business leadership, the intricacies of entrepreneurship, andthe crucial timing for scaling a business. For more information:  please visit: https://www.myyayday.com/ à If you wish toconnect, with Colin  feel free to reachout via email at colin@myyayday.com or follow along on Instagram at@colin.j.walsh.

As HR becomes more strategic, CHROs are building their presence inside the boardroom.     The latest research from The Conference Board shows that chief human resource officers (CHROs) are engaging much more with corporate boards in recent years. How can CHROs continue being a strategic partner while helping companies navigate the future of work?     Join Steve Odland and guests Rita Meyerson, EdD, principal researcher in The Conference Board's Human Capital Center, and Andrew Jones, PhD, principal researcher in The Conference Board's Governance & Sustainability Center. They discuss what the CEO-CHRO partnership should look like, how CHROs can improve cross-functional collaboration, and how CHROs are engaging more with boards these days.     For more from The Conference Board:  The Evolving Role of the CHRO in the Boardroom  Seizing the Future as CHROs: A Guide to the 2025 C-Suite Outlook  Productivity Through People: New Opportunities for CHROs 

Another day, another crash; or crashes. Conference Board expectations plunged to their lowest level since 2011. Another Fed PMI plummets. Two-year Treasury yields hit their lows. All pointing to that Beveridge transition.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisConference Board Consumer Confidence April 2025https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Apr-2025Atlanta Fed GDPNowhttps://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowBloomberg Economists Say Trade War Makes US Recession Almost a Coin Fliphttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-04-25/economists-say-trade-war-makes-us-recession-almost-a-coin-fliphttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Case-Shiller U.S National Home Price Index was released yesterday; Kevin has the details, digs into the data, puts it into historical perspective, and offers his insights. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index was released, and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Kevin reviews the details and offers his insights and opinions on the reports. Kevin has the supply and demand numbers, including expectations for corporate earnings, tariff talks, crude oil inventory levels, and geopolitical events that affect oil and gas prices.

The Case-Shiller U.S National Home Price Index was released yesterday; Kevin has the details, digs into the data, puts it into historical perspective, and offers his insights. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index was released, and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Kevin reviews the details and offers his insights and opinions on the reports. Kevin has the supply and demand numbers, including expectations for corporate earnings, tariff talks, crude oil inventory levels, and geopolitical events that affect oil and gas prices.

Consumer confidence plunges to a 13-year low — is a recession next?  Consumer confidence declined for a fifth consecutive month in April, to levels not seen since May 2020. With Americans' spending comprising 70% of economic growth, what could their growing concerns mean for the US this year?    Three specific expectation components – business conditions, employment prospects and future income – all dropped sharply, reflecting deep pessimism about the future. Crucially, the number of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months was nearly as high as in April 2009, the middle of the “Great Recession.” Americans' concerns about the wider economy are bleeding into worries about their own personal situations.     Dana Peterson, Chief Economist and Leader of the Economy, Strategy & Finance Center at The Conference Board, sits down with Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist of Global Indicators, and Erik Lundh, Senior Global Economist to unpack how this could shape US and global economic growth this year.    For more from The Conference Board:  US Consumer Confidence Plunged Again in April  Economy Watch Webcast on May 14  Labor Markets Watch on May 21 

EUA divulgam dado de emprego JOLTS e índices da Conference Board.

Change is constant, and that's why your business needsa structured change management strategy.     Your business is constantly changing, even if you don't use the term “change management” to describe it. What does successful change management look like, and how can business leaders do this successfully in a time of uncertainty?     Join Steve Odland and guest Diana Scott, Center Leader of The Conference Board'US Human Capital Center, to learn about change management's history, how to win employee buy-in, and how HR leaders can help organizations adapt.    (00:00) Introduction to C-Suite Perspectives (00:16) Meet Diana Scott: Change Management Expert (00:51) Understanding Change Management (01:59) The Human Reaction to Change (03:05) Proactive vs. Reactive Change Management (04:14) The Evolution of Change Management (07:13) Implementing Change: Key Steps (13:52) The Importance of Transparency and Communication   For more from The Conference Board:  CHRO Summit: Navigating through a Tsunami of Change  Upcoming Webcast: Change is Changing: How Organizations Can Master Change Management  On Demand: How to Beat the Odds and Succeed When 70% of Organizational Transformations Fail  

Organizations have more data at their fingertips than ever, and their ability to put that data to productive use should be a key source of sustainable competitive advantage. Yet, business leaders looking to tap into a steady and manageable stream of “actionable insights” often, instead, get blasted with a deluge of dashboards, chart-filled slide decks, and opaque machine learning jargon that leaves them asking, “So what?”  Analytics the Right Way: A Business Leader's Guide to Putting Data to Productive Use (Wiley, 2025) is a guide for these leaders. It provides a clear and practical approach to putting analytics to productive use with a three-part framework that brings together the realities of the modern business environment with the deep truths underpinning statistics, computer science, machine learning, and artificial intelligence. The result: a pragmatic and actionable guide for delivering clarity, order, and business impact to an organization's use of data and analytics. The book uses a combination of real-world examples from the authors' direct experiences—working inside organizations, as external consultants, and as educators—mixed with vivid hypotheticals and illustrations—little green aliens, petty criminals with an affinity for ice cream, skydiving without parachutes, and more—to empower the reader to put foundational analytical and statistical concepts to effective use in a business context. Joe Sutherland has worked as an executive, public servant, and educator for the Dow Jones 30, The White House, and our nation's top universities. His firm, J.L. Sutherland & Associates, has attracted clients such as Box, Cisco, Canva, The Conference Board, and Fulcrum Equity Partners. He founded the Center for AI Learning at Emory University, which focuses on AI literacy and integration for the general public. Caleb Zakarin is editor at the New Books Network. Let's face it, most of the popular podcasts out there are dumb. NBN features scholars (like you!), providing an enriching alternative to students. We partner with presses like Oxford, Princeton, and Cambridge to make academic research accessible to all. Please consider sharing the New Books Network with your students. Download this poster here to spread the word. Please share this interview on Instagram, LinkedIn, or Bluesky. Don't forget to subscribe to our Substack here to receive our weekly newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

Organizations have more data at their fingertips than ever, and their ability to put that data to productive use should be a key source of sustainable competitive advantage. Yet, business leaders looking to tap into a steady and manageable stream of “actionable insights” often, instead, get blasted with a deluge of dashboards, chart-filled slide decks, and opaque machine learning jargon that leaves them asking, “So what?”  Analytics the Right Way: A Business Leader's Guide to Putting Data to Productive Use (Wiley, 2025) is a guide for these leaders. It provides a clear and practical approach to putting analytics to productive use with a three-part framework that brings together the realities of the modern business environment with the deep truths underpinning statistics, computer science, machine learning, and artificial intelligence. The result: a pragmatic and actionable guide for delivering clarity, order, and business impact to an organization's use of data and analytics. The book uses a combination of real-world examples from the authors' direct experiences—working inside organizations, as external consultants, and as educators—mixed with vivid hypotheticals and illustrations—little green aliens, petty criminals with an affinity for ice cream, skydiving without parachutes, and more—to empower the reader to put foundational analytical and statistical concepts to effective use in a business context. Joe Sutherland has worked as an executive, public servant, and educator for the Dow Jones 30, The White House, and our nation's top universities. His firm, J.L. Sutherland & Associates, has attracted clients such as Box, Cisco, Canva, The Conference Board, and Fulcrum Equity Partners. He founded the Center for AI Learning at Emory University, which focuses on AI literacy and integration for the general public. Caleb Zakarin is editor at the New Books Network. Let's face it, most of the popular podcasts out there are dumb. NBN features scholars (like you!), providing an enriching alternative to students. We partner with presses like Oxford, Princeton, and Cambridge to make academic research accessible to all. Please consider sharing the New Books Network with your students. Download this poster here to spread the word. Please share this interview on Instagram, LinkedIn, or Bluesky. Don't forget to subscribe to our Substack here to receive our weekly newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kevin offers his thoughts on the passing of Pope Francis. The Conference Board released its Leading Economic Index; Kevin has the details, sorts through the data, reviews the reporting on this report compared with previous reporting on past reports; Kevin offers his insights and opinion. Carmakers discuss their plans on how to deal with potential effects of possible tariffs. March Class 8 truck sales have been reported; Kevin has the details. Kevin has the information, data, world events and economic data affecting oil and gas prices.

Kevin offers his thoughts on the passing of Pope Francis. The Conference Board released its Leading Economic Index; Kevin has the details, sorts through the data, reviews the reporting on this report compared with previous reporting on past reports; Kevin offers his insights and opinion. Carmakers discuss their plans on how to deal with potential effects of possible tariffs. March Class 8 truck sales have been reported; Kevin has the details. Kevin has the information, data, world events and economic data affecting oil and gas prices.

e.l.f. Beauty —a 2025 recipient of the Corporate Responsibility Awards— is the only cosmetics brand to have grownits market share for 24 consecutive quarters, all while being a leader in innovation, diversity, and Fair Trade certification.What lessons can other businesses learn from e.l.f.'sembrace of diversity, sustainability, and affordable products?     Join Steve Odlandand guest Tarang Amin, chairman and CEO of e.l.f. Beauty, to find out how e.l.f.aligns its purpose with customer values, how the companyformulatesproducts that are clean, vegan, and cruelty-free, and why e.l.f. wants to make the best of beauty accessible to every eye, lip, and face.    The 2025 Corporate Responsibility Awards, taking place on April 23, celebrates organizations that have moved beyond public commitments to fully integrate responsible business practices into their core strategies, driving measurable, positive impacts on their organizations, stakeholders, and society.    (00:35) Elf Beauty's Mission and History (01:58) Building Brands and High-Performance Teams (02:50) Purpose-Driven Strategy and Values (04:51) Sustainability and Social Impact (12:19) Innovation and Technology in Sustainability (13:58) Global Expansion and Market Strategy (18:19) Supply Chain and Responsible Sourcing (23:25) Continuous Improvement and Future Goals   For more from The Conference Board:  2025 Corporate Responsibility Summit  2025 Corporate Responsibility Awards Dinner  Regulatory Shifts in ESG: What Comes Next for US Companies? 

Sam Fenwick is joined by Erin Mc Laughlin, senior economist at the Conference Board in New York and Simon Littlewood, a business consultant based in Singapore.Two years into a civil war, Sudan is home to the world's largest humanitarian crisis. The International Red Cross is urging all sides to stop attacks on civilian infrastructure.We hear about Chinese president Xi Jinping's tour around Southeast Asia and what Malaysia stands to gain from new trade deals with China.Also in the programme, why are Chinese influencers going viral on TikTok over tariffs?

Food, people, and planet—these are the three north stars that help Yum! Brands —a 2025 recipient of the Corporate Responsibility Awards—focus its sustainability efforts across water use, energy, packaging, and more. What lessons can other businesses learn from the sustainability success of this multinational company?     Join Steve Odland and guest Jon Hixson, chief sustainability officer at Yum! Brands, to find out why your sustainability strategy requires north stars,how the company wins buy-in from franchisees, and what advice he gives to up-and-coming sustainability leaders.    The 2025 Corporate Responsibility Awards, taking place on April 23, celebrates organizations that have moved beyond public commitments to fully integrate responsible business practices into their core strategies, driving measurable, positive impacts on their organizations, stakeholders, and society.    (01:54) Defining Sustainability in the Food Industry  (05:06) Key Trends in Corporate Sustainability  (06:46) Yum! Brands' Strategy: People, Food, and Planet  (10:49) Global Operations and Supply Chain Challenges  (18:50) Leveraging Technology for Sustainability  (21:49) Franchisee Engagement and Regulatory Challenges  (25:35) Future Priorities and Advice for Sustainability Leaders      For more from The Conference Board:  2025 Corporate Responsibility Summit  2025 Corporate Responsibility Awards Dinner  Organizing for Success in Corporate Sustainability 2.0 

As Season Six draws to a close, the Conference Board's ESG Center Leader Anuj Saush joins host Barbara Mendes-Jorge to discuss the lessons learned and insights gained from our guests in this series. This season focused on a range of topics - including cities, circular economy, plastics, food, nature and e-waste - and our guests provided a lot of helpful advice for listeners. We'd like to thank our guests who contributed their time and expertise: Kruti Munot, Kara Fulcher, Marco Jansen, Marie Brueser, Sebastian Leape, Kenny McGee and Mel Blackmore.

U.S. businesses are already facing tough challenges as a result of President Trump’s sweeping new tariffs. We hear from small business owners across the country about how they are being impacted, and Amna Nawaz discusses the ongoing trade war with Erin McLaughlin, senior economist at the Conference Board. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders

U.S. businesses are already facing tough challenges as a result of President Trump’s sweeping new tariffs. We hear from small business owners across the country about how they are being impacted, and Amna Nawaz discusses the ongoing trade war with Erin McLaughlin, senior economist at the Conference Board. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders

Learn how Prudential Financial continues to serve all stakeholders through clarity of purpose.     Prudential Financial has served its local community of Newark, New Jersey, for 150 years, and that's one reason it is a recipient of The Conference Board 2025 Corporate Responsibility Awards. How does the company choose when and where to invest, and how does it scale those efforts globally?      Join Steve Odland and guest Lata Reddy, senior vice president, inclusive solutions, at Prudential Financial and chair of the Prudential Foundation, to find out about Prudential's commitment to Newark, why partnerships are essential, and why the company chose "inclusive solutions” as the best title to describe their corporate responsibility mission.    The 2025 Corporate Responsibility Awards, taking place on April 23, celebrates organizations that have moved beyond public commitments to fully integrate responsible business practices into their core strategies, driving measurable, positive impacts on their organizations, stakeholders, and society.    (01:25) Prudential's Legacy in Newark (02:36) Newark's Evolution and Prudential's Role (06:38) Global Impact and Local Prioritization (10:51) Employee Engagement and Volunteerism (16:29) Inclusive Solutions and Corporate Strategy (20:49) Looking Ahead: Future Strategies     For more from The Conference Board:  2025 Corporate Responsibility Summit  2025 Corporate Responsibility Awards Dinner  Infusing Community Needs into Products and Services: Lessons from Prudential   

U.S. businesses are already facing tough challenges as a result of President Trump’s sweeping new tariffs. We hear from small business owners across the country about how they are being impacted, and Amna Nawaz discusses the ongoing trade war with Erin McLaughlin, senior economist at the Conference Board. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders

Newsrooms, dinner tables and just about everyone in between woke up on the edge of their seats the morning of April 2 - the day US President Donald Trump dubbed 'liberation day' - but heading to bed, it was more of an uneasy feeling of 'now what?'. A few days later as the dust has started to settle, the confusion and ambiguity, however, has not. Although Canada was not on Trump's exhaustive reciprocal tariff list, 25% tariffs on foreign-made vehicles exported to America did apply to Canadian cars. Prime Minister Mark Carney struck back with 25% retaliatory tariffs on foreign-made vehicles imported to Canada, but the lines remained blurred with the Canada-US trade future. What tariffs are in place, what aren't, how many jobs are on the line, how much more expensive will cars be, and whose economy will be feeling the effects the worst? Host Cormac Mac Sweeney speaks with Principal Economist with the Conference Board of Canada, Richard Forbes gets to the bottom of Trump's latest tariff announcement. We love feedback at The Big Story, as well as suggestions for future episodes. You can find us: Through email at hello@thebigstorypodcast.ca  Or @thebigstoryfpn on Twitter

This 4th Generation CEO Shares Timeless Advice & The Importance Of Having A Strong Code Of Ethics – Meet Michael Benstock Superior Group of Companies Inc $SGCGuest:Michael Benstock CEO Chairman Of The Board at Superior Group of Companies IncTicker: $SGCWebsite:www.SuperiorGroupofCompanies.comBio:Michael Benstock is chairperson of the Board of Directors. He has served in this capacity since February 28, 2023. Mr. Benstock has served as a Director of the Company since 1985. He also is the Chief Executive Officer of the Company, having served in this capacity since October 24, 2003 and served as Co-President of the Company beginning May 1, 1992. Prior to such date, Mr. Benstock served as Executive Vice President of the Company. He currently serves on the Board of Directors and multiple board committees of Crown Crafts, Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWS) and the Board of Trustees of The Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board. Mr. Benstock served as a director with USAmeriBank, Inc. from 2007 until its sale to Valley National Bank in 2017 and was its audit Chairperson during the last few years prior to the sale.

The Conference Board issued the Consumer Confidence Index, Kevin has the details, talks about the data and offers his insights. Kevin speaks with Jody Pollard, SVP of Truck and Aftermarket Sales and Robb Nixon, VP of Aftermarket Sales, Rush Enterprises about Rush Truck Centers Maintenance Plans, Mobile Service, update on emissions regs and 2025 outlook. The U.S. Census Bureau reported February New Home Sales, Kevin explains and discusses the data. Kevin points out the factors and news affecting oil prices.

Learn how companies can evolve their philanthropy in a divided political climate while staying true to their values.     Most companies in 2025 are focusing their social efforts on economic opportunity and education, according to The Conference Board C-Suite Outlook 2025. How is corporate philanthropy changing, especially with the rise of AI and the backlash against diversity, equity, and inclusion (DE&I) initiatives?     Join Steve Odland and guest  Jeff Hoffman, Acting ESG Center Leader at The Conference Board, to find out how companies can avoid scattershot giving, whether they should give directly or through an intermediary, and how to show the ROI on corporate giving.    (00:36) Understanding Corporate Philanthropy and CSR (02:30) Aligning Community Strategy with Business Strategy (04:58) Best Practices for Corporate Foundations (06:29) Trends in Corporate Philanthropy for 2025 (07:33) Impact of DEI and Political Environment on Philanthropy (09:21) Geographic Shifts and Employee Volunteerism (15:11) Leveraging AI for Smarter Giving (18:34) Direct Giving vs. Intermediaries (22:49) Adapting to the Changing Political Landscape (24:10) Measuring Impact and ROI in Corporate Philanthropy   For more from The Conference Board:  2025 Outlook for Corporate Citizenship and Philanthropy  2025 Corporate Responsibility Awards Dinner 

Andrew Polk is the co-founder and head of economic research at Trivium China, a Beijing-based strategic advisory firm. Before founding Trivium, he was China director at Medley Global Advisors. Previously, he was the resident China economist at The Conference Board's China Center for Economics and Business. Andrew is the co-author of The Long, Soft Fall in Chinese Growth (The Conference Board, 2015) and maintains a deep network of professional contacts in the official, academic, and business communities in China (built over a decade of living in China and working on China issues). This podcast covers China's unique development model, Xi Jinping's economic philosophy, transitioning from property-driven growth to new industries, and much more.    Follow us here for more amazing insights: https://macrohive.com/home-prime/ https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive

In the opening episode of season 2 of Let's Talk Global Business, host Sara Murray explores the evolving investment landscape in China with Alicia Garcia Herrero, Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, and Alfredo Montufar-Helu, Head of The Conference Board's China Center. From changing consumption patterns and economic uncertainty to the rising challenges faced by Western multinationals, the conversation dives deep into the real dynamics shaping business in China today

Amid potentially massive job cuts by the federal government, how should leaders manage this disruption?     The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) seeks to cut hundreds of thousands of federal jobs while shrinking or eliminating many agencies. How can leaders guide the federal workforce through such disruptions, both for those affected and those who remain?     Join Steve Odland and guest Diana Scott, Center Leader of the US Human Capital Center at The Conference Board, to find out how DOGE is shrinking the federal workforce, what change management looks like, and why emotional intelligence is a crucial skill for leaders right now.    (00:50) Objectives and Actions of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) (02:16) Impact on Federal Workforce and Schedule F Reclassification (03:38) Challenges and Risks of Workforce Reduction (05:15) Advising Leaders on Managing Change (08:27) Importance of Communication and Transparency (17:51) Emotional Intelligence and Support During Change (22:07) Opportunities for the Private Sector   For more from The Conference Board:  Progress Under Pressure: Preparing Federal Employees for Turbulent Times  Federal Worker Separations Will Impact Talent Markets: Take Advantage  Current Efforts to Redefine Control of the Administrative State 

(AURN News) — Consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level in 12 years in March, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline as Americans grow increasingly pessimistic about business conditions and job prospects. The Consumer Confidence Index, a closely watched economic indicator published by The Conference Board, showed that consumers are particularly worried about future economic conditions, with the decline most pronounced among those older than 55. "Likely in response to recent market volatility, consumers turned negative about the stock market for the first time since the end of 2023," said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators at The Conference Board. Only 17.7% of consumers described current business conditions as good, down from February's numbers. Meanwhile, just 17.1% expected business conditions to improve, a decrease from 20.8% in March. Despite ongoing news headlines about a potential economic downturn, the survey revealed that consumer perception regarding the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months remained unchanged from February to March. The declining confidence comes as the Trump administration faces mounting pressure to address economic concerns during the president's second term. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Conference Board issued the Consumer Confidence Index, Kevin has the details, talks about the data and offers his insights. Kevin speaks with Jody Pollard, SVP of Truck and Aftermarket Sales and Robb Nixon, VP of Aftermarket Sales about Contract Maintenance Plans, Mobile Service, update on emissions regs and 2025 outlook. The U.S. Census Bureau reported February New Home Sales, Kevin explains and discusses the data. Kevin points out the factors and news affecting oil prices.

Find out the latest trends in shareholder proposals—and whether they'll succeed.     Shareholder proposals are at an all-time high, but support for most of these proposals has greatly declined. What's on deck for this year's proxy season, and how should corporations prepare to engage with shareholders?     Join Steve Odland and guest Andrew Jones, principal researcher at The Conference Board ESG Center, to find out why proxy filings have risen, what's trending in proposals related to DEI and ESG, and why shareholders are starting to scrutinize companies' charitable donations.    (02:17) Trends in Shareholder Proposals (03:08) Impact of SEC Rule Changes (04:38) Focus on Environmental and Social Issues (10:18) Mechanics of Shareholder Proposals (12:15) Corporate Governance Trends (14:57) Environmental Proposals and Investor Sentiment (18:58) Social Proposals and DEI (23:50) Emerging Issues: AI and Corporate Governance   For more from The Conference Board:  2025 Proxy Season Preview  The 2025 Proxy Season: Striking a Balance  Shareholder Activism: Expectations for 2025 

In March, consumer confidence saw its fourth month-on-month decline, with people's assessment of current business and labor market conditions, plus their short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, all dropping.    Crucially, consumers' optimism about future income, which had held up strongly in recent months, largely vanished, which suggests that worries about the wider economy and labor market have started to spread to people's assessments of their personal situations.    Yelena Shulyatyeva, Senior Economist,and Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist of Global Indicators, both of The Conference Board, unpack what's behind declining consumer sentiment, including survey respondents' write-in responses, and how it could shape consumer spending and US economic growth this year.    (01:49) Detailed Breakdown of Consumer Expectations (03:24) Impact of Market Volatility (05:44) Inflation Expectations and Consumer Sentiment (06:56) Tariffs and Their Influence on Consumer Views (08:25) Positive Highlights from the Survey (14:27) Federal Reserve's Potential Actions (17:53) Key Indicators to Watch Moving Forward   For more from The Conference Board:  US Consumer Confidence Tumbled Again in March  Download the full Consumer Confidence Survey Report  How Badly Will Uncertainty Affect US GDP Growth in 2025?   

We’re tackling a “mysterious and important” question in today’s episode: Should Congress use “current policy” or “current law” baseline when measuring tax cuts? It’s not unlike our reporter’s internal struggle on whether to cancel Apple TV+ now that Season 2 of “Severance” has ended, or renew it. Except lawmakers are dealing with trillions of dollars. Plus: African immigrants fill critical home health aide roles in Texas, and The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index falls for the third-straight month.

We’re tackling a “mysterious and important” question in today’s episode: Should Congress use “current policy” or “current law” baseline when measuring tax cuts? It’s not unlike our reporter’s internal struggle on whether to cancel Apple TV+ now that Season 2 of “Severance” has ended, or renew it. Except lawmakers are dealing with trillions of dollars. Plus: African immigrants fill critical home health aide roles in Texas, and The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index falls for the third-straight month.

Three key changes are impacting today's labor market: a changing workforce composition, evolving attitudes toward work, and new tools and technologies to empower employees and candidates. HR leaders must understand the implications of these changes as they set talent strategies and build out capabilities for their organizations. Gad Levanon, chief economist of the Burning Glass Institute, joins the Talent Angle to discuss evolving dynamics in the labor market and offer practical recommendations to HR leaders. He explains how organizations must pull a variety of levers, from technology to rewards and learning programs, at the same time to gain an edge in the talent market.   Gad Levanon is chief economist of the Burning Glass Institute. Previously, Gad was with The Conference Board where he was founder of the Labor Market Institute and led the Help Wanted OnLine program. His research focuses on trends in U.S. and global labor markets, the U.S. economy, and their impact on employers. Before The Conference Board, he worked at the Bank of Israel​. He received his doctorate in economics from Princeton University, and he holds undergraduate and master's degrees from Tel Aviv University.   Dion Love is a vice president of research and advisory services at Gartner. He's a labor market expert, focusing on global labor market trends and what they mean for organizations' talent and business strategies, as well as broader social and economic issues. In his work at Gartner, Dion advises clients on key aspects of talent acquisition, including talent acquisition function planning and management, talent needs definition and internal recruiting, employment branding and recruitment marketing, and talent sourcing and selection. He has co-authored more than 12 strategic research studies at Gartner. His work has been featured in the Harvard Business Review and industry publications, as well as Gartner HR Leaders Monthly and Smarter With Gartner.    

Two recent surveys indicate that U.S. consumer confidence has shown a notable decline amid talks about inflation and potential tariff. Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets discusses the market implications.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'm going to talk about the consumer side of the confidence debate. It's Thursday, February 27th at 2pm in London. Two weeks ago on this program I discussed signs that uncertainty in U.S. government policy might be hitting corporate confidence, as evidenced by an unusually slow start to the year for dealmaking. That development is a mixed bag. Less confidence and more conservatism in companies holds back investment and reduces the odds of the type of animal spirits that can drive large gains. But it can be a good thing for lenders, who generally prefer companies to be more cautious and more risk-averse. But this question of confidence is also relevant for consumers. And today, I want to discuss what some of the early surveys suggest and how it can impact our view.To start with something that may sound obvious but is nonetheless important, Confidence is an extremely powerful psychological force in the economy and financial markets. If you feel good enough about the future, you'll buy a stock or a car with little regard to the price or how the economy might feel at the moment. And if you're worried, you won't buy those same things, even if your current conditions are still ok, or if the prices are even cheaper. Confidence, you could say, can trump almost everything else. And so this might help explain the market's intense focus on two key surveys over the last week that suggested that US consumer confidence has been deteriorating sharply.First, a monthly survey by the University of Michigan showed a drop in consumer confidence and a rise in expected inflation. And then a few days later, on Tuesday, a similar survey from the Conference Board showed a similar pattern, with consumers significantly more worried about the future, even if they felt the current conditions hadn't much changed. While different factors could be at play, there is at least circumstantial evidence that the flurry of recent U.S. policy actions may be playing a role. This drop in confidence, for example, was new, and has only really showed up in the last month or two. And the University of Michigan survey actually asks its respondents how news of Government Economic policy is impacting their level of confidence. And that response, over the last month, showed a precipitous decline. These confidence surveys are often called ‘soft' data, as opposed to the hard economic numbers like the actual sales of cars or heavy equipment. But the reason they matter, and the reason investors listened to them this week, is that they potentially do something that other data cannot. One of the biggest challenges that investors face when looking at economic data is that financial markets often anticipate, and move ahead of turns in the underlying hard economic numbers. And so if expectations are predictive of the future, they may provide that important, more leading signal. One weak set of consumer confidence isn't enough to change the overall picture, but it certainly has our attention. Our U.S. economists generally agree with these respondents in expecting somewhat slower growth and stickier inflation over the next 18 months; and Morgan Stanley continues to forecast lower bond yields across the U.S. and Europe on the expectation that uncertainties around growth will persist. For credit investors, less confidence remains a double-edged sword, and credit markets have been somewhat more stable than other assets. But we would view further deterioration in confidence as a negative – given the implications for growth, even if it meant a somewhat easier policy path. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

The Conference Board reported the biggest monthly decline in consumer confidence since 2021. The University of Michigan also reported a sharp decline in optimism, along with a steep increase in inflation expectations. The reasons? Threats of tariffs, high cost-of-living expenses and general uncertainty. Also on the show: a draft deal for the U.S. to access Ukraine’s rare earth minerals and a proposed green card for wealthy people.

The Conference Board reported the biggest monthly decline in consumer confidence since 2021. The University of Michigan also reported a sharp decline in optimism, along with a steep increase in inflation expectations. The reasons? Threats of tariffs, high cost-of-living expenses and general uncertainty. Also on the show: a draft deal for the U.S. to access Ukraine’s rare earth minerals and a proposed green card for wealthy people.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Massie Hates Ethanol4:34 Corn Holds Support6:15 Russian Wheat Exports8:58 Mex/US Negotiations10:00 Gold Selloff11:00 Stock Market SelloffMassie's Controversial Comment on Ethanol