Podcast appearances and mentions of Michael J Mauboussin

In this episode, we explore what it means to invest in a non-ergodic world—where time, not averages, determines outcomes. We unpack concepts like volatility drag, ensemble vs. time averages, and the implications for portfolio strategy, while also reflecting on how AI and zero-click search are reshaping business and investor behavior.Topics covered include:What is ergodicity and why it mattersHow path dependency and emerging phenomena disrupt the long-termHow podcasting and blogging has changedWhat is the future of Money for the Rest of UsEpisode SponsorsNetSuite LinkedIn Jobs – Use this link to post your job for free on LinkedIn JobsInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesWayback Machine: jdstein.comProbabilities and Payoffs: The Practicalities and Psychology of Expected Value by Michael J. Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, CFA—Morgan StanleyThe Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb—Penguin Random HouseThe 60% Problem — How AI Search Is Draining Your Traffic by Tor Constantino, MBA—ForbesHollywood Is Cranking Out Original Movies. Audiences Aren't Showing Up. by Ben Fritz—The Wall Street JournalHow Late Night TV Is Downsizing by Alex Weprin and Rick Porter—The Hollywood Reporter‘Severance' Surpasses ‘Ted Lasso' To Become Apple TV+'s Most Watched Series With Season 2 Launch by Nellie Andreeva—DeadlineList of most watched television broadcasts in the United States—WikipediaTao te Ching by Lao Tzu (Author), Marc Mullinax (Translator)—fortress pressWhy AI Might Not Take All Our Jobs—If We Act Quickly by Justin Lahart—The Wall Street JournalElon Musk and the Dangerous Myth of Omnigenius by Gautam Mukunda—BloombergSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Upstream, we're dropping the first episode of Logan Bartlett, Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, and Zach Weinberg's newest podcast This Won't Last. The show is an unfiltered backchannel where they unpack the hype cycles in venture, startup culture, and business. In this episode they discuss Paul Graham's essay "Founder Mode", AI valuations, the state of the venture market, and free speech concerns with Telegram and TikTok. —

This week we're dropping the first episode of Logan Bartlett, Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, and Zach Weinberg's newest podcast This Won't Last. The show is an unfiltered backchannel where they unpack the hype cycles in venture, startup culture, and business. In this episode they discuss Paul Graham's Founder Mode, AI valuations, the state of the venture market, and free speech concerns with Telegram and TikTok. -- Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ -- RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: This Won't Last Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/id1765665937 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast  -- SPONSORS Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. If you want to do more and spend less, take a free test drive of OCI at https://oracle.com/cognitive Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Join top startups like Vercel, Perplexity, Jasper & Webflow in powering your app with WorkOS. Enjoy a free tier for up to 1M users! Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist. -- LINKS High Output Management by Andy Grove https://www.amazon.com/High-Output-Management-Andrew-Grove/dp/0679762884/  Keith Rabois' lecture notes from 2013: How to Operate https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fQHLK1aIBs  Tesla vs Edison: The Last Days of Night: A Novel by Graham Moore https://www.amazon.com/Last-Days-Night-Novel/dp/0812988922  Disruptive Innovation by Clayton M. Christensen https://hbr.org/2015/12/what-is-disruptive-innovation  The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing by Michael J. Mauboussin https://www.amazon.com/Success-Equation-Untangling-Business-Investing/dp/1422184234  Dark Wire by Joseph Cox https://www.amazon.com/Dark-Wire-Incredible-Largest-Operation/dp/1541702697  On railroads: Engines That Move Markets by Alistair Nairn https://www.amazon.com/Engines-That-Markets-Alisdair-Nairn/dp/0857195999/  The Kremlin has entered your chat https://www.wired.com/story/the-kremlin-has-entered-the-chat/ The Logan Bartlett Show https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCugS0jD5IAdoqzjaNYzns7w -- TIMESTAMPS (00:00) Intro (01:01) Show origins (01:52) Kevin comes back from Burning Man (03:33) Paul Graham's Founder Mode, founder mode intuitive Keith, Pierre Lamond anecdote (06:11) Keith's response to kernel of Founder Mode, Andy Grove High Output Management (07:40) Zach asks what's unique about Founder Mode and Keith clarifies (08:25) Manager vs. Founder (12:09) Founder moral authority (14:12) Investing in founder driven CEOs (17:55) OCI | WorkOS Ads (19:56) State of venture markets (22:25) Driverless car future (28:35) Revenue quality in Al valuations (32:54) Squad Ad (36:33) New technology being disruptive or helpful for incumbents (39:12) Al in Biotech (42:14) Al impacting fund AUM (45:56) Al as the transistor (46:50) Hurdle to return Al CapEx (48:00) Unrealized Capital Gains Tax (50:56) Sweden's tax vs Norway and corporation tax rates (58:23) Medicare and Social Security, beneficial tax policies and misleading life expectancy stats (1:05:44) Lina Khan, Antitrust effect on tech industry (1:13:46) Perplexity shocking Google (1:15:59) Pavel Durov and Russia's Influence in Telegram (1:20:15) Not using TikTok & Telegram, risk in capital in Chinese companies (1:25:55) Closing

Is contrarian investing a solid strategy, or a fool's errand? In this episode, Barry Ritholtz discusses the issue with Michael J. Mauboussin. Mauboussin is Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Previously, he was Director of Research at BlueMountain Capital, Head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse, and Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Is it better to be lucky or good? How much of a role does luck pay in investing? And how can you tell the difference between chance and skill? In this episode of At the Money, Barry Ritholtz discusses the issue with Michael J. Mauboussin. Mauboussin is Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Previously, he was Director of Research at BlueMountain Capital, Head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse, and Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What are the 10 attributes of great investors? According to Michael J. Mauboussin in his paper on investing, there are a number of qualities and skills you can acquire, that'll improve your performance as an investor. Mauboussin is the Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, a multi-book author and a Professor at Columbia. Tune in as Owen & Kate break down each of these items, and include examples, quotes and action steps, so you to can invest like the best! Paper that inspired this episode: Reflections on the Ten Attributes of Great Investors Ready-made ETF portfolios? Rask Core has you covered! Take one of our amazing money & investing courses (think ETFs, shares, property and FIRE) on Rask Education. ASK A QUESTION: https://bit.ly/3QtiY00 If you want to thank us for putting this show together, please give The Australian Finance Podcast a 5 star review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify - it's a 5 second task which really helps support the show (and puts a big smile on our faces). Pearler, the broker for long-term investors. Sign-up to Pearler using the code “RASK” for $15 of Pearler Credit: bit.ly/Pearler We're proudly supported by Global X ETFs. Learn more about the growing range of leading ETFs, on the Global X website: https://bit.ly/gx-funds Boost your investment potential, with FundLater. With InvestSMART's Fundlater, you can start a $10,000 investment portfolio, with only $4,000 upfront. Find out how: rask.com.au/inv-fundlater Investing Made Simple. Thanks to InvestSMART's ready-made ETF portfolios, you can start investing now in a portfolio managed by experts. Not only that, you can invest confidently knowing your investment fees are capped. Learn more: rask.com.au/inv-pma DISCLAIMER: This podcast contains general financial information only. That means the information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Because of that, you should consider if the information is appropriate to you and your needs, before acting on it. If you're confused about what that means or what your needs are, you should always consult a licensed and trusted financial planner. Unfortunately, we cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information in this podcast, including any financial, taxation, and/or legal information. Remember, past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The Rask Group is NOT a qualified tax accountant, financial (tax) adviser, or financial adviser. Full individual disclosures for each guest are available via the show notes page. Owen, Kate and The Rask Group Pty Ltd do NOT receive anything for mentioning Super funds, products, shares, bank accounts, etc. Access The Rask Group's Financial Services Guide (FSG): https://www.rask.com.au/fsg Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Saurabh Madaan, Managing Member of Manveen Asset Management, and Michael Mauboussin, Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, joined members for a fireside chat at Latticework on December 15, 2021. Saurabh and Michael explored the topic, “Expectations Investing as Applied to Growth Businesses”. Michael is co-author with Al Rappaport of the revised and updated edition of Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns.   The primary purpose of this podcast is to educate and inform. The views, information, or opinions expressed by hosts or guests are their own. Neither this show, nor any of its content should be construed as investment advice or as a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security. Security specific information shared on this podcast should not be relied upon as a basis for your own investment decisions -- be sure to do your own research. The podcast hosts and participants may have a position in the securities mentioned, personally, through sub accounts and/or through separate funds and may change their holdings at any time.   About the session host: Saurabh Madaan serves as Managing Member of Manveen Asset Management, based in Glen Allen, Virginia. Prior to founding Manveen Asset Management, Saurabh was a Managing Director and Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Markel Corporation (NYSE: MKL), where he worked closely with Markel's Co-Chief Executive Officer Tom Gayner. Saurabh also spent more than seven years at Google in various roles, including Senior Data Scientist, Engineering. Saurabh holds an MS degree in Engineering from the University of Pennsylvania. About the featured guest: Michael J. Mauboussin is Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global. Prior to joining Counterpoint Global in January 2020, he was Director of Research at BlueMountain Capital Management in New York. Before joining BlueMountain, he was a Managing Director and Head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse. Before rejoining Credit Suisse, he was Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management from 2004-2012. Michael joined Credit Suisse in 1992 as a packaged food industry analyst and was named Chief U.S. Investment Strategist in 1999. Michael is the author of three books, including The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing and is also co-author, with Alfred Rappaport, of Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns. Michael has been an adjunct professor of finance at Columbia Business School since 1993 and is on the faculty of the Heilbrunn Center for Graham and Dodd Investing. He earned an A.B. from Georgetown University.

Investment researcher Dan Hallett joints Jason for a discussion of investment management in the financial planning context. Remember to subscribe and earn your continue education credits at bccquiz.online!   Supplementary Materials: Dan Hallett, CFA, CFP The MoneySaver Podcast Dan Hallett on Robo-Advisors, Financial Advice, and CRM2 Principles for Responsible Investment Michael J. Mauboussin

Our guest on the podcast today is Tadas Viskanta. Tadas is the director of investor education at Ritholtz Wealth Management. He's also the founder and editor of the popular financial and investing blog Abnormal Returns, which he launched in 2005. Tadas is the author of the book Abnormal Returns: Winning Strategies from the Frontlines of the Investment Blogosphere and has coauthored a number of papers that have appeared in esteemed academic publications like the Financial Analysts Journal. Tadas earned his bachelor's degree in economics and political science from Indiana University and his MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.BackgroundBioAbnormal ReturnsTwitter: @abnormalreturnsAbnormal Returns: Winning Strategies From the Frontlines of the Investment Blogosphere by Tadas ViskantaInvestor Education“Financial Literacy vs. a Fiduciary Standard: Which Matters More?” by Tadas Viskanta, abornormalreturns.com, May 26, 2019. “What Has the Stock Market Taught Us Since 2010? ” by Ben Carlson, awealthofcommonsense.com, Sept. 10, 2021.Content“Earning the Permission of Your Audience,” by Tadas Viskanta, abnormalreturns.com, Feb. 21, 2021.“Keys to Social Media Success: Curiosity, Conversation, and Patience,” by Sloane Ortel, cfainstitute.org, May 15, 2016.HumbleDollarJonathan ClementsThe Rational Reminder Podcast Retirement Planning and Personal Finance“Don't Short-Circuit Your Financial Plan With an Inflexible Spending Rule,” by Tadas Viskanta, abnormalreturns.com, July 31, 2019.“Shifting Gears in Retirement Isn't Easy,” by Tadas Viskanta, abnormalreturns.com, Nov. 23, 2019.“Social Influence and the Rise of Index Investing,” by Tadas Viskanta, medium.com, Feb. 12, 2017.Canvas platform, O'Shaughnessy Asset Management“Not All That Glitters Is Gold With Tadas Viskanta,” ycharts.com, 2021.OtherThe Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing, by Michael J. Mauboussin“Consilient Observer,” by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan

To become a better investor you need to have a rigorous process of analysing your decisions, and objectively determining whether results have been due to skill or luck. Here we discuss distinguishing between processes versus outcomes. Some of the points we cover in this episode: -The importance of practice and repetition -Why great investors analyse their mistakes rigorously -How to become less emotional as an investor over time -The predictive ability (or otherwise) of experts -One hit wonders! -What are base rates and why are they useful? Books mentioned: Thinking Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing, Michael J. Mauboussin Thanks for listening! Download a free chapter from our book 'Low Rates, High Returns' https://www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcast Pete Wargent https://www.petewargent.com/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/ Stephen Moriarty https://twitter.com/SGM63

BackgroundGus Sauter bio  Gus Sauter retirement announcement Fast Facts About Vanguard  Council on University of Chicago Booth School of BusinessJack Bogle bio https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_C._BogleJack Brennan bio Search for Alpha “Alpha and the Paradox of Skill” by Michael J. Mauboussin and Dan Callahan. Credit Suisse, July 15, 2013.  Growth, and Limits, of IndexingCharles Ellis bio  Charles Ellis books  Burton Malkiel bio  Burton Malkiel books  Indexing and Price Discovery“Setting the Record Straight: Truths About Indexing” by James J. Rowley, Joshua M. Hirt, and Haifeng Wang. The Vanguard Group, January 2018. Indexing and Corporate Governance“Vanguard CEO Jack Brennan Makes His Demands Heard” by Aaron Lucchetti. The Wall Street Journal, February 2003. Private Markets and AlternativesDavid Swensen bio David Swensen books  The Case for IndexingWilliam Sharpe bio“The Arithmetic of Active Management” by William Sharpe; The Financial Analysts Journal, Volume 47, No. 1; January/February 1991. Innovation“Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness” by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein, February 2009. 

Michael J. Mauboussin is Director of Research at BlueMountain Capital Management. Prior to joining BlueMountain, he was Head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse and Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management. He is also the author of three books, including More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places, named in the The 100 Best Business Books of All Time by 800-CEO-Read. Michael has been an adjunct professor of finance at Columbia Business School since 1993, and received the Dean's Award for Teaching Excellence in 2009 and 2016. He is also chairman of the board of trustees of the Santa Fe Institute, a leading center for multi-disciplinary research in complex systems theory. Michael's website: http://michaelmauboussin.com/ MIchael's Twitter: https://twitter.com/mjmauboussin ABOUT THE PODCAST Hi, I'm Tobias Carlisle. I've launched a new podcast called The Acquirers Podcast. The podcast is about finding undervalued stocks, deep value investing, hedge funds, activism, buyouts, and special situations. We uncover the tactics and strategies for finding good investments, managing risk, dealing with bad luck, and maximizing success. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://acquirersmultiple.com/podcast/ SEE OUR FREE DEEP VALUE STOCK SCREENER https://acquirersmultiple.com/screener/ FOLLOW TOBIAS Website: https://acquirersmultiple.com/ Firm: https://acquirersfunds.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Greenbackd LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tobycarlisle Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/tobiascarlisle Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tobias_carlisle ABOUT TOBIAS CARLISLE Tobias Carlisle is the founder of The Acquirer’s Multiple®, and Acquirers Funds®. He is best known as the author of the #1 new release in Amazon’s Business and Finance The Acquirer’s Multiple: How the Billionaire Contrarians of Deep Value Beat the Market, the Amazon best-sellers Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014) (https://amzn.to/2VwvAGF), Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012) (https://amzn.to/2SDDxrN), and Concentrated Investing: Strategies of the World’s Greatest Concentrated Value Investors (2016) (https://amzn.to/2SEEjVn). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law. Prior to founding the forerunner to Acquirers Funds in 2010, Tobias was an analyst at an activist hedge fund, general counsel of a company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, and a corporate advisory lawyer. As a lawyer specializing in mergers and acquisitions he has advised on transactions across a variety of industries in the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Australia, Singapore, Bermuda, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, and Guam. He is a graduate of the University of Queensland in Australia with degrees in Law (2001) and Business (Management) (1999).

In Episode #330, Michael J. Mauboussin, author of The Success Equation, considers the continuum between luck and skill as it pertains to investing. He also shares his thoughts on the price/earnings multiple as a valuation tool, the hallmarks of an effective investment process, and how professional investors might mitigate some of the most common behavioral biases.

Do you want to improve your decision-making a build a better mental toolkit? In this episode we explore the psychology behind making better decisions with Michael J. Mauboussin. Michael is the Head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse. He is the author of three books, including More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places, named in the The 100 Best Business Books of All Time. Michael also serves as an adjunct professor of finance at Columbia Business School. We discuss the following topics:   -The interconnectedness of knowledge across many different disciplines -How to switch to the “outside view” to make better predictions and decisions -How to improve your results without being any smarter or better trained  -A fascinating psychology study that demonstrates how we deceive ourselves -The biggest biases that cause investors to make bad decisions (and how to combat them) -Why the right tools aren’t enough to make you a successful investor -Concrete steps to start down the path of better decision-making -How to understand the difference between luck and skill in complex fields like business, investing, and entrepreneurship -How to become “numerate” and understand the physics and mathematics of misjudgment -What statistical base-rates are and how they can improve your decisions -How reversion to the mean really works and why you’ve been misunderstanding it Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Join the Acquired Limited Partner program! https://kimberlite.fm/acquired/ (works best on mobile) Ben and David deviate entirely from the stated purpose of the show, tackling this non-technology acquisition that is so recent, we have no idea if it went well yet. But, the April 2016 acquisition of Virgin America by Alaska Airlines was so fascinating, we had to do it!    Items mentioned in the show:  Louis C.K. - Everything is Amazing and Nobody is Happy   Alaska Acquires Virgin America Investor Deck   “Measuring The Moat” Paper - Michael J. Mauboussin   Business Adventures - Twelve Classic Tales from the World of Wall Street     "The Carve Out": Michael Mauboussin: "The Success Equation:Untangling Skill and Luck" | Talks at Google  

Michael J. Mauboussin is an investment strategist and has been in the financial services industry for more than twenty-five years. He has also taught at the Columbia Graduate School of Business since 1993, and is on the board of trustees at the Santa Fe Institute.He is the author of two previous books, Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition andMore Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places and is coauthor, with Alfred Rappaport, of Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns.

How do we know which of our successes and failures can be attributed to either skill or luck? That is the question that investment strategist Michael J. Mauboussin explores in his book The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business Sports and Investing. Wharton management professor Adam M. Grant recently sat down with Mauboussin to talk about the paradox of skill the conditions for luck and how to avoid overconfidence. (Video with transcript) See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

In episode #090, Michael J. Mauboussin discusses the role of technical competence, "counterintuition," and the application of multiple mental models to the discipline of financial analysis.