Podcasts about chief u

Can the U.S. equity market break out of its expected range? Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson looks at whether the Trump administration's shifting tariff policy and Fed uncertainty will continue weighing down stocks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today, I will discuss what it will take for the US equity market to break out of the 5000-5500 range. It's Monday, April 21st at 11:30am in New York.So, let's get after it.Last week, we focused on our view that the S&P 500 was likely to remain in a 5000-5500 range in the near term given the constraints on both the upside and the downside. First, on the upside, we think it will be challenging for the index to break through prior support of 5500 given the recent acceleration lower in earnings revisions, uncertainty on how tariff negotiations will progress and the notion that the Fed appears to be on hold until it has more clarity on the inflationary and growth impacts of tariffs and other factors. At the same time, we also believe the equity market has been contemplating all of these challenges for much longer than the consensus acknowledges. Nowhere is this evidence clearer than in the ratio of Cyclical versus Defensive stocks as discussed on this podcast many times. In fact, the ratio peaked a year ago and is now down more than 40 per cent.Coming into the year, we had a more skeptical view on growth than the consensus for the first half due to expectations that appeared too rosy in the context of policy sequencing that was likely to be mostly growth negative to start. Things like immigration enforcement, DOGE, and tariffs. Based on our industry analysts' forecasts, we were also expecting AI Capex growth to decelerate, particularly in the first half of the year when growth rate comparisons are most challenging. Recall the Deep Seek announcement in January that further heightened investor concerns on this factor. And given the importance of AI Capex to the overall growth expectations of the economy, this dynamic remains a major consideration for investors. A key point of today's episode is that just as many were overly optimistic on growth coming into the year, they may be getting too pessimistic now, especially at the stock level. As the breakdown in cyclical stocks indicate, this correction is well advanced both in price and time, having started nearly a year ago. Now, with the S&P 500 closing last week very close to the middle of our range, the index appears to be struggling with the uncertainty of how this will all play out.Equities trade in the future as they try to discount what will be happening in six months, not today. Predicting the future path is very difficult in any environment and that is arguably more difficult today than usual, which explains the high volatility in equity prices. The good news is that stocks have discounted quite a bit of slowing at this point. It's worth remembering the factors that many were optimistic about four-to-give months ago—things like de-regulation, lower interest rates, AI productivity and a more efficient government—are still on the table as potential future positive catalysts. And markets have a way of discounting them before it's obvious.However, there is also a greater risk of a recession now, which is a different kind of slowdown that has not been fully priced at the index level, in our view. So as long as that risk remains elevated, we need to remain balanced with our short-term views even if we believe the odds of a positive outcome for growth and equities are more likely than consensus does over the intermediate term. Hence, we will continue to range trade.Further clouding the picture is the fact that companies face more uncertainty than they have since the early days of the pandemic. As a result, earnings revisions breadth is now at levels rarely witnessed and approaching downside extremes assuming we avoid a recession. Keep in mind that these revisions peaked almost a year ago, well before the S&P 500 topped, further supporting our view that this correction is much more advanced than acknowledged by the consensus. This is why we are now more interested in looking at stocks and sectors that may have already discounted a mild recession even if the broader index has not. Bottom line, if a recession is averted, markets likely made their lows two weeks ago. If not, the S&P 500 will likely take those lows out. There are other factors that could take us below 4800 in a bear case outcome, too. For example, the Fed decides to raise rates due to tariff-driven inflation; or the term premium blows out, taking 10-year Treasury yields above 5 per cent without any growth improvement.Nevertheless, we think recession probability is the wildcard now that markets are wrestling with. In S&P terms, we think 5000-5500 is the appropriate range until this risk is either confirmed or refuted by the hard data – with labor being the most important. In the meantime, stay up the quality curve with your equity portfolio.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Tariff uncertainty has become par for the course in financial markets these days. Kevin, John and David welcome Greg Valliere, AGF's Chief U.S. Policy Strategist, back to the show to discuss what the U.S. administration's chaotic trade policy means for investors going forward.  Hosted By:KM: Kevin McCreadie, CEO and Chief Investment Officer, AGF InvestmentsJC: John Christofilos, Chief Trading Officer, AGF InvestmentsDP: David Pett, Content Editor & Producer, Inside Perspectives: An AGF Podcast Series Guest:GV: Greg Valliere, Chief U.S. Policy Strategist, AGF Investments

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson probes whether market confidence can return soon as long as tariff policy remains in a state of flux.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ---- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing last week's volatility and what to expect going forward.It's Monday, April 14th at 11:30am in New York.So, let's get after it.What a month for equity markets, and it's only halfway done! Entering April, we were much more focused on growth risks than inflation risks given the headwinds from AI Capex growth deceleration, fiscal slowing, DOGE and immigration enforcement. Tariffs were the final headwind to face, and while most investors' confidence was low about how Liberation Day would play out, positioning skewed more toward potential relief than disappointment.That combination proved to be problematic when the details of the reciprocal tariffs were announced on April 2nd. From that afternoon's highs, S&P 500 futures plunged by 16.5 per cent into Monday morning. Remarkably, no circuit breakers were triggered, and markets functioned very well during this extreme stress. However, we did observe some forced selling as Treasuries, gold and defensive stocks were all down last Monday. In my view, Monday was a classic capitulation day on heavy volume. In fact, I would go as far as to say that Monday will likely prove to be the momentum low for this correction that began back in December for most stocks; and as far back as a year ago for many cyclicals. This also means that we likely retest or break last week's price lows for the major indices even if some individual stocks have bottomed. We suspect a more durable low will come as early as next month or over the summer as earnings are adjusted lower, and multiples remain volatile with a downward bias given the Fed's apprehension to cut rates – or provide additional liquidity unless credit or funding markets become unstable. As discussed last week, markets are now contemplating a much higher risk of recession than normal – with tariffs acting as another blow to an economy that was already weakening from the numerous headwinds; not to mention the fact that most of the private economy has been struggling for the better part of two years. In my view, there have been three factors supporting headline GDP growth and labor markets: government spending, consumer services and AI Capex – and all three are now slowing.The tricky thing here is that the tariff impact is a moving target. The question is whether the damage to confidence can recover. As already noted, markets moved ahead of the fundamentals; and markets have once again done a better job than the consensus in predicting the slowdown that is now appearing in the data. While everyone can see the deterioration in the S&P 500 and other popular indices, the internals of the equity market have been even clearer. First, small caps versus large caps have been in a distinct downtrend for the past four years. This is the quality trade in a nutshell which has worked so well for reasons we have been citing for years — things like the k-economy and crowding out by government spending that has kept the headline economic statistics higher than they would have been otherwise. This strength has encouraged the Fed to maintain interest rates higher than the weaker cohorts of the economy need to recover. Therefore, until interest rates come down, this bifurcated economy and equity markets are likely to persist. This also explains why we had a brief, yet powerful rally last fall in low quality cyclicals when the Fed was cutting rates, and why it quickly failed when the Fed paused in December. The dramatic correction in cyclical stocks and small caps is well advanced not only in price, but also in time. While many have only recently become concerned about the growth slowdown, the market began pricing it a year ago.Looking at the drawdown of stocks more broadly also paints a picture that suggests the market correction is well advanced, but probably not complete if we end up in a recession or the fear of one gets more fully priced. This remains the key question for stock investors, in my view, and why the S&P 500 is likely to remain in a range of 5000-5500 and volatile – until we have a more definitive answer to this specific question around recession, or the Fed decides to circumvent the growth risks more aggressively, like last fall.With the Fed saying it is constrained by inflation risks, it appears likely to err on the side of remaining on hold despite elevated recession risk. It's a similar performance story at the sector and industry level, with many cohorts experiencing a drawdown equal to 2022. Bottom line, we've experienced a lot of price damage, but it's too early to conclude that the durable lows are in – with policy uncertainty persisting, earnings revisions in a downtrend, the Fed on hold and back-end rates elevated. While it's too late to sell many individual stocks at this point, focus on adding risk over the next month or two as markets likely re-test last week's lows. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all on pace for gains week-to-date, despite another volatile first hour of trade: Sara Eisen, David Faber, and Michael Santoli broke down the latest as China strikes back with additional tariffs on U.S. goods and bond yields see another big jump. Consumer Sentiment coming in at multi-year lows before the team headed live to Beijing for a read from the ground – and Trivariate's Adam Parker discussed his top picks here, along with Goldman's Chief U.S. Economist -fresh off the firm's quick turn on a recession call earlier this week. Plus: A deep-dive into new numbers out of the Big Banks… JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley all reporting results this morning: what they're saying about the consumer – and President Trump's tariff moves.   Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist explains why the new tariffs added momentum to a correction that was already underway, and what could ease the fallout in equity markets.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ---- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing equity market reactions to the tariffs and what to expect from here. It's Tuesday, April 8th at 11:30am in New York.So, let's get after it. From our perspective, last week's Liberation Day was more like the cherry on top for a market that had been dealing with multiple headwinds to growth all year, rather than the beginning. While the magnitude of the tariffs turned out to be worse than our public policy team's base line expectations, the price reaction appears capitulatory to us given that many stocks were already down 30 to 40 percent before the announcement on Wednesday. As discussed in last week's podcast, our 5500 first half support level on the S&P 500 quickly gave way given this worse than expected outcome for tariffs. The price action since then has forced us to consider new technical support levels which could be as low as the 200-week moving average. And that would be 4700 on the S&P 500. I think it's worth highlighting that cyclical stocks started underperforming in April of last year and are now down more than 40 percent relative to defensive stocks. In other words, markets have been telling us for almost a year that growth was going to slow, and since January, it's been telling us it's going to slow significantly. In fact, cyclicals have underperformed defensives to a degree only seen during a recession, not prior to them. This fits very nicely with our long-standing view that most of the private economy has been much weaker than the headline numbers suggest – thanks to unprecedented fiscal spending, AI capex and wealthy consumers spending their gains from asset prices. With the exceptional fourth quarter surge in U.S. fiscal spending likely to decline even without DOGE's efforts, global growth impulses will suffer too. Hence, foreign stocks are unlikely to provide much of a safe haven if the U.S. goes on a diet or detox from fiscal spending. Markets began to contemplate such an outcome with last week's announcements. Therefore, I remain of the view we discussed two weeks ago that U.S. equities should trade better than foreign ones going forward. That is especially the case with China, Europe and Japan all which run big current account surpluses and are more vulnerable to weaker trade.Meanwhile, the headline numbers on employment and GDP have been flattered by government related jobs and the hiring of immigrants at below market wages. This is one reason the Fed has kept rates higher than many businesses and consumers need and why we remain in an economy of haves and have-nots. Our long standing thesis is that the government has been crowding out much of the economy since COVID, and arguably since the Great Financial Crisis. It's also why large cap quality has been such a consistent outperformer since the end of 2021 and why we have continued to have high conviction and our recommendation are overweight these factors despite short periods of outperformance by low quality cyclicals or small caps – like last fall when the Fed was cutting rates and we pivoted briefly to a more pro-cyclical recommendation. Bottom line, equity markets are discounting machines and they trade six months in advance of the headlines. With most stocks topping in December of last year and cyclicals' relative performance peaking almost a year ago, this correction is well advanced, and this is not the time to be selling. However, it's fair to say that the tariff announcements last week have taken us to an area with greater tail risk that includes a recession or financial contagion that must be taken into consideration when thinking about levels and adding risk.I see three specific scenarios that could put in a durable floor more quickly:1. President Trump delays the effective date for the implementation of the additional tariffs beyond the initial 10 percent that went into effect this weekend2. The Fed offers support for markets, either explicitly or verbally3. A number of nations come to the table and negotiate on favorable terms to the United States.In short, get ready for another bumpy week and remember markets are looking much further ahead than today's headline. I remain optimistic that the second half will be better than the first as these growth negative policies morph into growth positive ones via de-regulation, a better fiscal trajectory, lower interest rates and taxes and maybe even higher wages for the American consumer.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

As market turmoil continues, our global economists give their view on the ramifications of the Trump administration's tariffs, and how central banks across key regions might react.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ---- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's, Global Chief Economist, and today we're going to be talking tariffs and what they mean for the global economy.It's Monday, April 7th at 10am in New York.Jens Eisenschmidt: It's 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And it's 10pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: And so, I'm here with our global economists from around the world: Mike Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist, Chetan Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist, and Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist. So, let's jump into it. Let me go around first and ask each of you, what is the top question that you are getting from investors around the world?Chetan?Chetan Ahya: Tariffs.Seth Carpenter: Jens?Jens Eisenschmidt: Tariffs.Seth Carpenter: Mike?Michael Gapen: Tariffs.Seth Carpenter: All right. Well, that seems clear. Before we get into the likely effects of the tariffs, maybe each of you could just sketch for me where you were before tariffs were announced. Chetan, let me start with you. What was your outlook for the Chinese economy before the latest round of tariff announcements?Chetan Ahya: Well Seth, working with our U.S. public policy team, we were already assuming a 15-percentage point increase on tariffs on imports from China. And China also was going through some domestic challenges in terms of high levels of debt, excess capacities, and deflation. And so, combining both the factors, we were assuming China's growth will slow on Q4 by Q4 basis last year – from 5.4 percent to close to 4 percent this year.Jens, what about Europe? Before these broad-based tariffs, how were you thinking about the European economy?Jens Eisenschmidt: We had penciled in a slight recovery, not really getting us much beyond 1 percent. Backdrop here, still rising real wages. We had some tariffs in here, on steel, aluminum; in cars, much again a bit more of a beefed-up version if you want, of the 18 tariffs – but not much more than that. And then, of course, we had the German fiscal expansion that helped our outlook to sustain this positive growth rates into 2026.Seth Carpenter: Mike, for you. You also had thought that there were going to be some tariffs at some point before this last round of tariffs. Maybe you can tell us what you had in mind before last week's announcements.Michael Gapen: Yeah, Seth. We had a lot of tariffs on China. The effective rate rising to say 35 to 40 percent. But as Jens just mentioned, outside of that, we had some on steel and aluminum, and autos with Europe, but not much beyond that. So, an effective tariff rate for the U.S. that reached maybe 8 to 9 percent.We thought that would gradually weigh on the economy. We had growth at around 1.5 percent this year and 1 percent next year. And the disinflation process stopping – meaning inflation finishes the year at around 2.8 core PCE, roughly where it is now. So, a gradual slowdown from tariff implementation.Seth Carpenter: Alright, so a little bit built in. You knew there was going to be something, but boy, I guess I have to say, judging from market reactions, the world was surprised at the magnitude of things. So, what's changed in your mind? It seems like tariffs have got to push down the outlook for growth and up the out outlook for inflation. Is that about right? And can you sketch for us how this new news is going to affect the outlook?Michael Gapen: Sure. So instead of effective tariff rates of 8 to 9 percent, we're looking at effective tariff rates, maybe as high as 22 percent.Seth Carpenter: Oh, that's a lot.Michael Gapen: Yeah. So more than twice what we were expecting. Obviously, some of that may get negotiated down. Seth Carpenter: And would you say that's the highest tariff rate we've seen in a while?Michael Gapen: At least a century. If we were to a 1.5 percent on growth before, it's pretty easy to revise that down, maybe even a full percentage point, right?So you're, it's a tax on consumption and a tariff rate that high is going to pull down consumer spending. It's also going to lead to even much higher inflation than we were expecting. So rather than 2.8 for core PCE year-on-year, I wouldn't be surprised if we get something even in the high threes or perhaps even low fours.So, it pushes the economy, we would say, at least closer to a recession. If not, you're getting closer to the proverbial coin toss because there are the potential for a lot of indirect effects on business confidence. Do they spend less and hire less? And obviously we're seeing asset markets melt down. I think it's fair to describe it that way. And you could have negative wealth effects on the upper income consumers. So, the direct effects get you very modest growth a little bit above zero. It's the indirect effects that we're worried about.Seth Carpenter: Wow, that's quite a statement. So, a substantial slowdown for the U.S. Flirting with no growth. And then given all the uncertainty, the possibility that the U.S. actually goes into recession, a real possibility there. That feels like a big call.Jens, if the U.S. could be on the verge of recession with uncertainty and all of that, what are you thinking about Europe now? You had talked about Europe before the tariffs growing around 1 percent. That's not that far away from zero. So, what are you thinking about the outlook for Europe once we layer in these additional tariffs? And I guess every bit is important. Do you see retaliatory tariffs coming from the European Union?Jens Eisenschmidt: No, I think there are at least three parts here. I totally agree with that framing. So, first of all, we have the tariffs and then we have some estimates what they might mean, which, just suppose what we have heard last week sticks, would get us already in some countries into recessionary territory; and for the aggregate Euro area, not that far from it. So, we think effects could range between 60 and 120 basis points of less growth. Now that to some extent, incorporates retaliation. And so, the question is how much retaliation we might expect here. This is a key question we get from clients. I'd say we get something; that seems, sure.At the same time, it seems that Europe weighs a response that is taking into account all the constraints that are in the equation. After all the U.S. is an ally also in security concerns. You don't wanna necessarily endanger that good relationship. So that will for sure play a role. And then the U.S. has a services surplus with Europe, so it's also likely to be a response in the space of services regulation, which is not necessarily inflationary on the European side, and not necessarily growth impacting so much.But, you know, be it as it may. This is going to be down from here, for sure. And then the other thing just mentioned by Michael, I mean there is clearly a read across from a slower U.S. growth environment that will also not help growth in the Euro area. So, all being told it could very well mean, if we get the U.S. close to recession, that the Euro area is flirting with recession too.Seth Carpenter: Got it. Chetan Ahya: Seth, can I interrupt you on this one? I just wanted to add the perspective on retaliatory tariffs from China. What we had actually originally billed was that China would take up a retaliatory response, which would be less than be less than proportionate, just like the last time. But considering that China has actually, mashed U.S. reciprocal tariffs, it makes us feel that it's very unlikely that a deal will be done anytime soon.Seth Carpenter: Okay. So then how would you revise your view for what's going on with China?Chetan Ahya: Yeah, so as I mentioned earlier, we had already built in some downside but with these reciprocal tariffs, we see another 50 to 100 [basis points] downside to China's growth, depending upon how strong is the policy stimulus.Seth Carpenter: So, at some point, I suspect we're going to start having a discussion about what it really means to have a global recession, and markets are going to start to look to central banks.So, Mike, let me turn to you. Jay Powell spoke recently. He repeated that he is in no hurry to cut interest rates. Can you talk to me about the challenges that the Fed is facing right now?Michael Gapen: The Fed is faced with this problem where tariffs mean it's missing on both sides of its mandate, where inflation is rising and there's downside risk to the economy.So how do you respond to that?Really what Powell said is it's going to be tough for us to look through this rise in inflation and pre-emptively ease. So, for the moment they're on hold and they're just going to evaluate how the economy responds. If there's no recession, it likely means the Fed's on hold for a very long time. If we get negative job growth, if you will, or job cuts, then the Fed may be moving to ease policy. But right now, Powell doesn't know which one of those is going to materialize first.Seth Carpenter: Alright Mike. So, I understand what you're saying. Inflation going higher, growth going lower. Really awkward position for the Fed, and I think central banks around the world really have to weigh the two sides of these sorts of things, which one's going to dominate…Jens Eisenschmidt: Exactly. Seth, may I jump in here because I think that's a perfect segue to the ECB; which I was thinking a lot about that – just recently coming back from the U.S. – how different the position really is here. So, the ECB currently is on the way to neutral, at least as we have always thought as a good way of framing their way. Inflation is falling to target. Now with all the risks that we have mentioned, there's a clear risk we see. Inflation going below 2 percent, already by mid this year – if oil prices were to stay as low as they are and with the euro appreciation that we have seen.The tariffs scare in terms of the inflationary impact from tariffs, that's much less clear. Now, whether that's really something to worry about simply because what you typically see with these tariffs – it's actually a depreciation of the exchange rate, which we haven't seen. So, we think there is a clear risk, downside risk to our path; at least that we have an anticipation. A quicker rate cutting cycle by the ECB. And potentially if the growth outlook that we have just outlined all these risks really materializes, or threatens is more likely to materialize, then the cuts could also be deeper.Seth Carpenter: That's super tricky as well though, because they're going to have to deal with all the same uncertainty. I will say this brings up to me the Bank of Japan because it was the one major central bank that was going the opposite direction before all of this. They were hiking while the other central banks were cutting.So, Chetan, let me turn to you. Do you think the Bank of Japan's gonna be able to follow through on the additional rate hike that you all had already had in your forecast?Chetan Ahya: Yes Seth. I think Bank of Japan will have a difficult time. Japan is exposed to direct effect of 24 percent reciprocal tariffs. It will see downside from global trade slowdown, which will weigh on its exports and yen appreciation will weigh on its inflation outlook. Hence, unless if U.S. removes tariffs very quickly in the near term, we see the risk that BOJ will pause instead of hiking as we had assumed in our earlier base case.Seth Carpenter: Well, this is a good place to stop. Let me see if I can summarize the conversations we've had so far. Before this latest round of tariffs had been announced, we had thought there'd be some tariffs, and we had looked for a bit of slowdown in the U.S. and in Europe and in China – the three major economies in the world. But these new rounds of tariffs have added a lot to that slowdown pushing the, the global economy right up to the edge of recession. And what that means as well is for central banks, they're left in at least something of a bind. The Bank of Japan though, the one major central bank that had been hiking, boy, there's a really good chance that that rate hike gets derailed.Seth Carpenter: Well, thank you for listening. And if you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Today's guest had one of the best track records last year in forecasting key economic indicators like rates of inflation and unemployment.Now that we have a new Administration in place, one aggressively deploying disruptive economic policy changes, where does she see the key indicators heading from here?To find out, we have the good fortune to talk today with Dr Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist for Bloomberg Economics. Prior to her current role, Anna also worked at the Federal Reserve Board, the White House Council of Economics Advisers, and the U.S. Treasury.Anna is concerned that the decelerating economy is at risk of becoming a slow-motion train wreck, which the recent Liberation Day slew of new tariffs will only exacerbate. It wouldn't surprise her to see the S&P lose an additional 30% of its market value from here as the year continues.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

S&P and Nasdaq coming off their worst quarter since 2022 - Sara Eisen, David Faber, and Carl Quintanilla broke down the latest for stocks with one day to go until President Trump's big “Liberation Day” of additional tariffs, and a number of key questions remain. Goldman's Chief U.S. Economist David Kostin joined the team ahead of things… as the firm raises their recession odds, and lowers their S&P target for year-end. Plus, the latest from the White House when it comes to possible scenarios tomorrow.   Also in focus: Are airline stocks grounded here? The team discussed a new downgrade of key names from Jefferies, and got a read from the ground with the CEO of one budget carrier; What the privatization of Fannie and Freddie could mean for consumers - with the head of one of the biggest commercial real estate financing firms on street, Walker & Dunlop; And a deep-dive with the CEO of AIG on how AI is changing the insurance game. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer  

Policy questions and growth risks are likely to persist in the aftermath of the Trump administration's upcoming tariffs. Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson outlines how to seek investments that might mitigate the fallout.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast – our views on tariffs and the implications for equity markets. It's Monday, March 31st at 11:30am in New York. So let's get after it. Over the past few weeks, tariffs have moved front and center for equity investors. While the reciprocal tariff announcement expected on April 2nd should offer some incremental clarity on tariff rates and countries or products in scope, we view it as a maximalist starting point ahead of bilateral negotiations as opposed to a clearing event. This means policy uncertainty and growth risks are likely to persist for at least several more months, even if it marks a short-term low for sentiment and stock prices. In the baseline for April 2nd, our policy strategists see the administration focusing on a continued ramp higher in the tariff rate on China – while product-specific tariffs on Europe, Mexico and Canada could see some de-escalation based on the USMCA signed during Trump's first term. Additional tariffs on multiple Asia economies and products are also possible. Timing is another consideration. The administration has said it plans to announce some tariffs for implementation on April 2nd, while others are to be implemented later, signaling a path for negotiations. However, this is a low conviction view given the amount of latitude the President has on this issue. We don't think this baseline scenario prevents upside progress at the index level – as an "off ramp" for Mexico and Canada would help to counter some of the risk from moderately higher China tariffs. Furthermore, product level tariffs on the EU and certain Asia economies, like Vietnam, are likely to be more impactful on a sector basis. Having said that, the S&P 500 upside is likely capped at 5800-5900 in the near term – even if we get a less onerous than expected announcement. Such an outcome would likely bring no immediate additional increase in the tariff rate on China; more modest or targeted tariffs on EU products than our base case; an extended USMCA exemption for Mexico and Canada; and very narrow tariffs on other Asia economies. No matter what the outcome is on Wednesday, we think new highs for the S&P 500 are out of the question in the first half of the year; unless there is a clear reacceleration in earnings revisions breadth, something we believe is very unlikely until the third or fourth quarter.Conversely, to get a sustained break of the low end of our first half range, we would need to see a more severe April 2nd tariff outcome than our base case and a meaningful deterioration in the hard economic data, especially labor markets. This is perhaps the outcome the market was starting to price on Friday and this morning. Looking at the stock level, companies that can mitigate the risk of tariffs are likely to outperform. Key strategies here include the ability to raise price, currency hedging, redirecting products to markets without tariffs, inventory stockpiling and diversifying supply chains geographically. All these strategies involve trade-offs or costs, but those companies that can do it effectively should see better performance. In short, it's typically companies with scale and strong negotiating power with its suppliers and customers. This all leads us back to large cap quality as the key factor to focus on when picking stocks. At the sector level, Capital Goods is well positioned given its stronger pricing power; while consumer discretionary goods appears to be in the weakest position. Bottom line, stay up the quality and size curve with a bias toward companies with good mitigation strategies. And see our research for more details. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

SwampWatch / Tariffs Latest with Gary and Shannon. Guest Ryan Sweet, Chief U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics joins the show to talk about the Tariffs. Return of Rec rooms in efforts to get kids off their phones.

As credit resilience weakens with a worsening fundamental backdrop, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets suggests investors reconsider their portfolio quality.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'm going to talk about why we think near term improvement may be temporary, and thus an opportunity to improve credit quality. It's Friday March 28th at 2pm in London. In volatile markets, it is always hard to parse how much is emotion, and how much is real change. As you would have heard earlier this week from my colleague Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, we see a window for short-term relief in U.S. stock markets, as a number of indicators suggest that markets may have been oversold. But for credit, we think this relief will be temporary. Fundamentals around the medium-term story are on the wrong track, with both growth and inflation moving in the wrong direction. Credit investors should use this respite to improve portfolio quality. Taking a step back, our original thinking entering 2025 was that the future presented a much wider range of economic scenarios, not a great outcome for credit per se, and some real slowing of U.S. growth into 2026, again not a particularly attractive outcome. Yet we also thought it would take time for these risks to arrive. For the economy, it entered 2025 with some pretty decent momentum. We thought it would take time for any changes in policy to both materialize and change the real economic trajectory. Meanwhile, credit had several tailwinds, including attractive yields, strong demand and stable balance sheet metrics. And so we initially thought that credit would remain quite resilient, even if other asset classes showed more volatility. But our conviction in that resilience from credit is weakening as the fundamental backdrop is getting worse. Changes to U.S. policy have been more aggressive, and happened more quickly than we previously expected. And partly as a result, Morgan Stanley's forecasts for growth, inflation and policy rates are all moving in the wrong direction – with forecasts showing now weaker growth, higher inflation and fewer rate cuts from the Federal Reserve than we thought at the start of this year. And it's not just us. The Federal Reserve's latest Summary of Economic Projections, recently released, show a similar expectation for lower growth and higher inflation relative to the Fed's prior forecast path. In short, Morgan Stanley's economic forecasts point to rising odds of a scenario we think is challenging: weaker growth, and yet a central bank that may be hesitant to cut rates to support the economy, given persistent inflation. The rising risks of a scenario of weaker growth, higher inflation and less help from central bank policy temper our enthusiasm to buy the so-called dip – and add exposure given some modest recent weakness. Our U.S. credit strategy team, led by Vishwas Patkar, thinks that U.S. investment grade spreads are only 'fair', given these changing conditions, while spreads for U.S. high yield and U.S. loans should actually now be modestly wider through year-end – given the rising risks. In short, credit investors should try to keep powder dry, resist the urge to buy the dip, and look to improve portfolio quality. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson discusses investors' outlook following last week's Fed meeting, and lists the key signals to gauge whether stocks can fully rebound from the recent correction. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing the recent rally in stocks and why it can continue. It's Monday, March 24th at 11:30am in New York. So let's get after it. Last week's Fed meeting appeared to come as a relief to many market participants as Chair Powell seemed to downplay concerns about inflation, offering a bit more emphasis on the growth side of the Fed's mandate. The Fed also made the decision to slow the pace of balance sheet runoff, a development that came sooner than some expected and indicated the Fed is ready to act, if necessary. Looking ahead, investors are now very focused on the April 2nd reciprocal tariff deadline. While this catalyst could offer some incremental clarity on tariff rates and countries and products in scope, we think it's more a starting point for tariff negotiations – as opposed to a clearing event. In short, a Fed put seems closer to being in the money than a Trump put though it probably would require material labor weakness or choppier credit and funding markets. So far, DOGE firings have had little impact on data like jobless claims or the overall unemployment rate. There may also be a lag between when employees are laid off and when these individuals show up as unemployed, given that severance is offered to most. The more important question for labor markets is whether the recent decline in the stock market, fall in confidence and rise in economic trade uncertainty will lead to layoffs in the private economy. Our economists' base case assumes that these factors won't drive an unemployment cycle this year; but payrolls, claims, and the unemployment rate will be critical to monitor to inform that view going forward. As usual, looking at the S&P 500 alone does not fully describe the magnitude of the correction in equities. As I noted last week, equity markets got as oversold in this correction as they were during the bear market of 2022. One could ask: Is this the bottom or the beginning of something more severe? In our experience, it's rare for volatility to end when price momentum is at its lows. However, you can get strong rallies from these conditions which is why we expected one to begin when the S&P 500 reached the bottom end of our first half trading range of 5500 on March 13th. Since then, stocks have rallied with lower quality, higher beta equities leading the bounce, so far. We believe that can continue in the near-term even though we are still advocating higher quality stocks in one's core portfolio for the intermediate term – given weakness in earnings revisions since last November. More specifically, earnings revisions have remained in negative territory for the major U.S. averages all year and have not yet showed signs of bottoming. However, we are starting to see some interesting shifts in revisions trends under the surface. The most notable change here is that the Magnificent 7 earnings revisions look to be stabilizing after a steep decline. This could halt the underperformance of these mega cap stocks in the near term as we head into earnings season and this would help stabilize the S&P 500, in line with our call from two weeks ago. It could also help to attract flows back into the U.S. In our view, one of the reasons why we've seen capital rotate to international markets is that the high-quality leadership cohort of the U.S. equity market began to underperform. So, if this group regains relative strength we could see a rotation back to the U.S. Finally, the weaker U.S. dollar could also reverse the relative earnings revisions downtrend between U.S. and European companies. If you remember, at the end of last year, the U.S. dollar was very strong and provided a headwind to U.S. relative revisions when companies reported fourth quarter results, as we previewed. This may be going the other way for first quarter results season and drive money back to the U.S., at least temporarily. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Headlines over the weekend that President Trump's April 2nd tariffs could include certain carve outs - Sara Eisen and David Faber broke down the latest as key sectors like Chips, Tech, and the Autos rally. Wharton School Professor Jeremy Siegel joined the team with his take - arguing a rally to new highs is unlikely here – while Citi's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist took the other side… saying the fundamentals still support a bull market. Also in focus: Microsoft breaking its longest losing streak since 2008… Has Big Tech bottomed here? Plus, the latest on next-gen weight-loss drugs out of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk; and a look at the fallout in for businesses and the legal community, after a new executive order from President Trump targeting Paul Weiss. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen discuss the outcome of the recent FOMC meeting, and the outlook for interest rates in 2025 and 2026.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew Hornbach: Today we're talking about the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the path for rates from here.It's Thursday, March 20th at 10am in New York.Mike, the Fed released a new set of projections yesterday. What do these say and what did you learn from them?Michael Gapen: Yeah, Matt, well, the Fed's forecast actually now look a lot like our outlook for the U.S. economy. So, they revised down their expectation of growth. They revised up their expectation for inflation. So, it has a bit of a stagflation, slower growth, stickier inflation outlook – which is very much what we were thinking coming into this year. The Fed also, though, highlighted high policy uncertainty. They wrote down a forecast, but I'm not all that convinced that they have a lot of confidence in how things will evolve.So, I think for me, really, the bigger story were their updated perceptions about uncertainty and risks to the outlook. So, in December, if you remember, they told us; virtually everybody on the committee said, uncertainty around inflation is high and risk to inflation to the upside. They complemented that this week with the fact that uncertainty around growth in the labor market is high, but risk to growth is to the downside, the unemployment rate to the upside. So, you have kind of competing risks here around the Fed's dual mandate. They've got upside risk to inflation, downside risk to growth.To me, that's kind of the really important message. It's hard to have a confidence in a forecast right now, but I think that risk assessment is really interesting.Matthew Hornbach: And with that in mind, and given all the policy uncertainty that the Fed mentioned, what did Powell say about how the Fed should react? In other words, what is appropriate policy at this stage?Michael Gapen: Right. Yeah, it's tricky, right? So, on one side of your mandate, you think risks to inflation are squarely to the upside and growth in labor markets to the downside. So, what do you do? And I think Powell said, I think that the logical answer, which is, well, right now you do nothing, and you wait.But then I think what Powell said is: How we think this plays out is – tariffs may boost inflation in the short run. Which we're going to try to ignore. And if the economy does weaken and the labor market softens, we'll ease policy in order to support activity, right? So, there might be, say, symmetric risks around their dual mandate, but there's asymmetry in the policy outlook.He said we're either going to be on hold or we're going to be cutting rates. And generally, I think that's the right thing.Matthew Hornbach: So, Mike, what I heard from you was that the Fed was going to look through inflation in the near term, and then eventually cut. I mean, do you think they can do that?Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think, Matt, that's a great question. My answer to that is, I think it's easier said than done. We agree that the next move from the Fed is going to be a cut, but we think that cut comes much later.This is a very data dependent Fed. So, I think in the moment, if tariffs boost inflation now and weaken activity later, it's easy to say, ‘I'm going to look through that and cut.' But in practice, I think it's hard.So, Matt, actually, at this point, though, I think I would actually kind of ask you the same question, but in a different way, right? We doubt the Fed may be able to do this. But the market priced in more rate cuts this year than we think is likely. How would you explain the market pricing and how far away from my expectation do you think it could run?Matthew Hornbach: What's really interesting about how the market has priced the recent events is – it's actually pricing more in line with the spirt of your view. In the sense that the market has priced more rate cuts in 2026 than it's pricing in 2025. So, in spirit, the market is very much with you. But as we like to say, the market price is an average of all possible outcomes. And if one of the outcomes is the Fed does nothing for the foreseeable future. And the other outcome is the Fed cuts aggressively this year. Then the market price has to reflect some degree of additional easing in 2025 that wouldn't necessarily be aligned with a rational baseline for Fed policy.So, market in some ways is reflecting the idea that you're proposing in your forecast. But it's also reflecting the idea that it's a market and that it has to be priced for some amount of risk premia that the Fed is ultimately forced to cut rates more.And in fact, if I can ask you a question relating to that, Mike, you know, the equity market at one point last week had fallen about 10 per cent from the highs.Michael Gapen: Mm hmm.Matthew Hornbach: Number one, is there a percentage drawdown that gets the Fed's attention? You know, how does the Fed think about the equity market in an environment like this?Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think the equity market, in my view, and I think the view of the Fed, is what I'll call a key spillover channel. Trade and manufacturing are relatively small shares of the economy. So, if we pursue restrictive trade policies, growth should slow, inflation may be firm. That's the Fed's essential baseline; it's ours. The risk here though is that somewhere in there you get a destabilizing period, equity markets fall, upper income consumers take a step back, and you have a much broader downturn at that point.So, you ask a great question, how far do equity markets have to fall? Well, we get 10 per cent declines in equity markets on average about once a year, so it's not that. And the theory would say households have to view that decline in wealth as permanent, right? So, it has to be a fairly substantial decline.Given how far wealth has risen, we're over [$]51 trillion now and an increase in net wealth since COVID. I think that decline has to be large. I would pencil in something, probably need about a 30 per cent decline in equity markets – before maybe that spillover risk gets very elevated.So, Matt, if I can turn back, because, you know, I think we're in general agreement here on what we heard yesterday. But what I'd like to do in terms of looking forward, so aside from the usual communications coming from the Fed, after the blackout period, following the meeting. What do you think investors will be focusing on over the next month?Matthew Hornbach: My sense is that there is already an unusual amount of focus on April 2nd.You know, that is the day when the Trump administration is supposed to unveil their plan for reciprocal tariffs. It's unclear what tariffs will be implemented on April 2nd; what tariffs will be saved for a negotiating process thereafter. So, clients are very focused on April 2nd. I also suspect that at some various periods between now and then, we are likely to receive previews, in the form of various communications coming from the Trump administration on the types of policies that we may end up seeing delivered on April 2nd.And so, I suspect that between now and then there will be a crescendo in concern, perhaps, over what will come of U.S. trade policy for the balance of this year. And really for the balance of the next three and a half years.So, with that, Michael, thanks for taking the time to talk.Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt.Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains the stock market tumble and whether investors can hope for a rally.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing the recent Equity Market correction and what to look for next. It's Monday, March 17th at 11:30am in New York. So let's get after it. Major U.S. equity Indices are as oversold as they've been since 2022. Sentiment, positioning gauges are bearish, and seasonals improve in the second half of March for earnings revisions and price. Furthermore, recent dollar weakness should provide a tailwind to first quarter earnings season and second quarter guidance, particularly relative to the fourth quarter results; and the decline in rates should benefit economic surprises. In short, I stand by our view that 5,500 on the S&P 500 should provide support for a tradable rally led by lower quality, higher beta stocks that have sold off the most, and it looks like it may have started on Friday. The more important question is whether such a rally is likely to extend into something more durable and mark the end of the volatility we've seen YTD? The short answer is – probably not. First, from a technical standpoint there has been significant damage to the major indices—more than what we witnessed in recent 10 per cent corrections, like last summer. More specifically, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 1000 growth and value indices have all traded straight through their respective 200-day moving averages, making these levels now resistance, rather than support. Meanwhile, many stocks are closer to a 20 per cent correction with the lower quality Russell 2000 falling below its 200 week moving average for the first time since the 2022 bear market. At a minimum, this kind of technical damage will take time to repair, even if we don't get additional price degradation at the index level. In order to forecast a larger, sustainable recovery, it's important to acknowledge what's really been driving this correction. From my conversations with institutional investors, there appears to be a lot of focus on the tariff announcements and other rapid-fire policy announcements from the new administration. While these factors are weighing on sentiment and confidence, other factors started this correction in December. In our year ahead outlook, we forecasted a tougher first half of the year for several reasons. First, stocks were extended on a valuation basis and relative to the key macro and fundamental drivers like earnings revisions, which peaked in early December. Second, the Fed went on hold in mid-December after aggressively cutting rates by 100 basis points over the prior three months. Third, we expected AI capex growth to decelerate this year and investors now have the DeepSeek development to consider. Add in immigration enforcement, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) exceeding expectations, and tariffs – and it's no surprise that growth expectations are hitting equities in the form of lower multiples. As noted, we highlighted these growth headwinds in December and have been citing a first half range for the S&P 500 of 5500-6100 with a preference for large cap quality. Finally, President Trump has recently indicated he is not focused on the stock market in the near term as a barometer of his policies and agenda. Perhaps more than anything else, this is what led to the most recent technical breakdown in the S&P 500. In my view, it will take more than just an oversold market to get more than a tradable rally. Earnings revisions are the most important variable and while we could see some seasonal strength or stabilization in revisions, we believe it will take a few quarters for this factor to resume a positive uptrend. As noted in our outlook, the growth-positive policy changes like tax cuts, de-regulation, less crowding out and lower yields could arrive later in the second half of the year – but we think that's too far away for the market to contemplate for now. Finally, while the Trump put apparently doesn't exist, the Fed put is alive and well, in our view. However, that will likely require conditions to get worse either on growth, especially labor, or in the credit and funding market, neither of which would be equity-positive, initially. Bottom line, a short-term rally from our targeted 5500 level is looking more likely after Friday's price action. It's also being led by lower quality stocks. This helps support my secondary view that the current rally is unlikely to lead to new highs until the numerous growth headwinds are reversed or monetary policy is loosened once again. The transition from a government heavy economy to one that is more privately driven should ultimately be better for many stocks. But the path is going to take time and it is unlikely to be smooth. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen discusses the possible economic implications of restrictive immigration policies in the U.S., highlighting their potential effect on growth, inflation and labor markets.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Today I'll talk about the way restrictive immigration policies could potentially slow U.S. economic growth, push up inflation, and impact labor markets.It's Wednesday, February 26th, at 2pm in New York.Lately, investors have been focused on the twists and turns of Trump's tariffs. Several of my colleagues have discussed the issue of tariffs from various angles on this show. But we think the new administration's immigration policy deserves more attention. Immigration is more than just the entry of foreign citizens into the U.S. for residency. It's a complex process with significant implications for our economy. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of June 2024, 19 per cent of the US workforce was made up of immigrants – which is over 32 million people. This is a significant increase from 1994, when only about 10 per cent of the workforce was foreign-born. Immigrants tend to be employed in sectors like agriculture, construction and manufacturing, but also in face-to-face services sectors like retail, restaurants, hotels and healthcare. Immigration surged to about 3 million per year after the pandemic. In fact, immigration rates in 2022 to 2024 were more than twice the historical run rate. This surge helped the US economy to "soft land" following a period of high inflation. It boosted both the supply side and the demand side of the U.S. economy. Labor force growth outpaced employment, which helped to moderate wage and price pressures. However, Trump's policymakers are changing the rules rapidly and reversing the immigration narrative. Already by the second half of 2024, border flows were slowing significantly based on the lagged effects of steps previously taken by the Biden administration. Under the new administration, news reports suggest immigration has slowed to near zero in recent weeks.In our 2025 year-ahead outlook, we noted that restrictive immigration policies were a key factor in our prediction for slower growth and firmer inflation. We estimate that immigration will slow from 2.7 million last year to about 1 million this year and 500,000 next year. The recent data suggests immigration may slow every more forcefully than we expect.If immigration slows broadly in line as we predict, the result will be that population growth in 2025 will be about 4/10ths of 1 per cent. That's less than half of what the U.S. economy saw in 2024. The impact of slower immigration on labor force measures should be visible over time. For the moment though, there is enough noise in monthly payrolls and the unemployment rate to mask some of the labor force effects. But over three or six months, the impact of slower immigration should become clearer.In terms of economic growth, if immigration falls back to 1 million this year and 500,000 next year, this could reduce the rate of GDP growth by about a-half a percentage point this year and maybe even more next year, and put upward pressure on inflation, particularly in services, and to some extent overall wages. Slower immigration could pull short-run potential GDP growth down from the 2.5-3.0 per cent that we saw in recent years to 2 per cent this year, and 1-1.5 per cent next year. On the other hand, the unemployment rate might fall modestly as immigration controls reduce the number of households with high participation rates and low spending capacity. This could lead to tighter labor markets, moderately faster wage growth, and upward pressure on inflation. So we think we are looking at a two-speed labor market. Slower employment growth will feel soft and sluggish. But a low unemployment rate suggests the labour market itself is still tight. Given all of this, we think more restrictive immigration policies could lead to tighter monetary policy and keep the Fed on its currently restrictive stance for longer. All of this supports our expectation of just one cut this year and further rate cuts only next year after growth slows.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains the challenges to growth for U.S. stocks and why some investors are looking to China and Europe.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing new headwinds for growth and what that means for equities. It's Monday, Feb 24th at 11:30am in New York. So let's get after it. Until this past Friday's sharp sell off in stocks, the correlation between bond yields and stocks had been in negative territory since December. This inverse correlation strengthened further into year-end as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield definitively breached 4.5 per cent on the upside for the first time since April of 2024. In November, we had identified this as an important yield threshold for stock valuations. This view was based on prior rate sensitivity equities showed in April of 2024 and the fall of 2023 as the 10-year yield pushed above this same level. In our view, the equity market has been signaling that yields above this point have a higher likelihood of weighing on growth. Supporting our view, interest rate sensitive companies like homebuilders have underperformed materially. This is why we have consistently recommended the quality factor and industries that are less vulnerable to these headwinds.In our year ahead outlook, we suggested the first half of 2025 would be choppier for stocks than what we experienced last fall. We cited several reasons including the upside in yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. Since rates broke above 4.5 per cent in mid-December, the S&P 500 has made no progress. Specifically, the 6,100 resistance level that we identified in the fall has proven to be formidable for the time being. In addition to higher rates, softer growth prospects alongside a less dovish Fed are also holding back many stocks. As we have also discussed, falling rates won't help if it's accompanied by falling growth expectations as Friday's sharp selloff in the face of lower rates illustrated. Beyond rates and a stronger US dollar, there are several other reasons why growth expectations are coming down. First, the immediate policy changes from the new administration, led by immigration enforcement and tariffs, are likely to weigh on growth while providing little relief on inflation in the short term. Second, the Dept of Govt Efficiency, or DOGE, is off to an aggressive start and this is another headwind to growth, initially.Third, there appears to have been a modest pull-forward of goods demand at the end of last year ahead of the tariffs, and that impulse may now be fading. Fourth, consumers are still feeling the affordability pinch of higher rates and elevated price levels which weighed on last month's retail sales data. Finally, difficult comparisons, broader awareness of Deep Seek, and the debate around AI [CapEx] deceleration are weighing on the earnings revisions of some of the largest companies in the major indices.All of these items are causing some investors to consider cheaper foreign stocks for the first time in quite a while – with China and Europe doing the best. In the case of China, it's mostly related to the news around DeepSeek and perhaps stimulus for the consumer finally arriving this year. The European rally is predicated on hopes for peace in Ukraine and the German election results that may lead to the loosening of fiscal constraints. Of the two, China appears to have more legs to the story, in my opinion. Our Equity Strategy in the U.S. remains the same. We see limited upside at the index level in the first half of the year but plenty of opportunity at the stock, sector and factor levels. We continue to favor Financials, Software over Semiconductors, Media/Entertainment and Consumer Services over Goods. We also maintain an overriding penchant for quality across all size cohorts.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategy Mike Wilson suggests that stock, factor and sector selection remain key to portfolio performance.----- Listener Survey -----Complete a short listener survey at http://www.morganstanley.com/podcast-survey and help us make the podcast even more valuable for you. For every survey completed, Morgan Stanley will donate $25 to the Feeding America® organization to support their important work.----- Transcript -----Hi, I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Before we get into today's episode, the team behind Thoughts on the Market wants your thoughts and your input. Fill out our listener survey and help us make this podcast even more valuable for you. The link is in the show notes.Plus, help us help the Feeding America organization. For every survey completed, Morgan Stanley will donate $25 towards their important work.Thanks for your time and the support. On to the show… Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing equities in the context of higher rates and weaker earnings revisions. It's Tuesday, Feb 18th at 11:30am in New York. So let's get after it.Since early December, the S&P 500 has made little headway. The almost unimpeded run from the summer was halted by a few things but none as important as the rise in 10-year Treasury yields, in my view. In December, we cited 4 to 4.5 percent as the sweet spot for equity multiples assuming growth and earnings remained on track. We viewed 4.5 percent as a key level for equity valuations. And sure enough, when the Fed leaned less dovish at its December meeting, yields crossed that 4.5 percent threshold; and correlations between stocks and yields settled firmly in negative territory, where they remain. In other words, yields are no longer supportive of higher valuations—a key driver of returns the past few years. Instead, earnings are now the primary driver of returns and that is likely to remain the case for the foreseeable future. While the Fed was already increasingly less dovish, the uncertainty on tariffs and last week's inflation data could further that shift with the bond market moving to just one cut for the rest of the year. Our official call is in line with that view with our economists now just looking for just one cut–in June. It depends on how the inflation and growth data roll in. Our strategy has shifted, too. With the S&P 500 reaching our tactical target of 6100 in December and earnings revision breadth now rolling over for the index, we have been more focused on sectors and factors. In particular, we've favored areas of the market showing strong earnings revisions on an absolute or relative basis.Financials, Media and Entertainment, Software over Semiconductors and Consumer Services over Goods continue to fit that bill. Within Defensives, we have favored Utilities over Staples, REITs and Healthcare. While we've seen outperformance in all these trades, we are sticking with them, for now. We maintain an overriding preference for Large-cap quality unless 10-year Treasury yields fall sustainably below 4.5 percent without a meaningful degradation in growth. The key component of 10-year yields to watch for equity valuations remains the term premium – which has come down, but is still elevated compared to the past few years. Other macro developments driving stock prices include the very active policy announcements from the White House including tariffs, immigration enforcement, and cost cutting efforts by the Department of Government Efficiency, also known as DOGE. For tariffs, we believe they will be more of an idiosyncratic event for equity markets. However, if tariffs were to be imposed and maintained on China, Mexico and Canada through 2026, the impact to earnings-per-share would be roughly 5-7 percent for the S&P 500. That's not an insignificant reduction and likely one of the reasons why guidance this past quarter was more muted than fourth quarter results. Industries facing greater headwinds from China tariffs include consumer discretionary goods and electronics. Lower immigration flow and stock is more likely to affect aggregate demand than to be a wage cost headwind, at least for public companies. Finally, skepticism remains high as it relates to DOGE's ability to cut Federal spending meaningfully. I remain more optimistic on that front, but realize greater success also presents a headwind to growth before it provides a tailwind via lower fiscal deficits and less crowding out of the private economy—things that could lead to more Fed cuts and lower long-term interest rates as term premium falls. Bottom line, higher backend rates and growth headwinds from the stronger dollar and the initial policy changes suggest equity multiples are capped for now. That means stock, factor and sector selection remains key to performance rather than simply adding beta to one's portfolio. On that score, we continue to favor earnings revision breadth, quality, and size factors alongside financials, software, media/entertainment and consumer services at the industry level. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, help us make it even more valuable to you. Share your feedback on the show at morganstanley.com/podcast-survey or head to the episode notes for the survey link.

Our Global Head of Fixed Income and Public Policy Research, Michael Zezas, joins our Chief U.S. Economist, Michael Gapen, to discuss the possible outcomes for President Trump's immigration policies and their effect on the U.S. economy.----- Listener Survey -----Complete a short listener survey at http://www.morganstanley.com/podcast-survey and help us make the podcast even more valuable for you. For every survey completed, Morgan Stanley will donate $25 to the Feeding America® organization to support their important work.----- Transcript -----Hi, I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Before we get into today's episode, the team behind Thoughts on the Market wants your thoughts and your input. Fill out our listener survey and help us make this podcast even more valuable for you. The link is in the show notes, and you'll hear it at the end of the episode. Plus, help us help the Feeding America organization. For every survey completed, Morgan Stanley will donate $25 toward their important work.Thanks for your time and the support. On to the show… Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income and Public Policy Research.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist for Morgan Stanley.Michael Zezas: Our topic today: President Trump's immigration policy and its economic ramifications.It's Friday, February 14th at 10am in New York.Michael, migration has always been considered an important feature of the global economy. In fact, you believe that strong immigration flows were an important element in the supply side rebound that set the stage for a U.S. soft landing. If we think back to the time before President Trump took office almost a month ago, how would you categorize immigration trends then?Michael Gapen: So, we saw a very sharp increase in immigration coming out of the pandemic. I would say, if you look at longer term averages, say the 20 years leading up to the pandemic, normally we'd get about a million and a half immigrants, per year into the United States. A lot of variation around that number, but that was the long-term average.In 2022 through 2024, we saw immigration surge to about 3 million per year. So about twice as fast as we saw normally. And that happened at a very important time. It allowed for very significant and rapid growth in the labor force, just at a time when the economy was emerging from the pandemic and demand for labor was quite high.So, it filled that labor demand. It allowed the economy to grow rapidly, while at the same time helping to keep wages lower and inflation starting to come down. So, I do think it was a major underpinning force in the ability of the U.S. economy to soft land after several years of above target inflation.Michael Zezas: Got it. And so now, with a second President Trump term, are we set up for a reversal of this immigration driven boost to the economy?Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think that's the key question for the outlook, and our answer is yes. That if we are going to significantly restrict immigration flows, the risk here is that we reverse the trends that we've just seen in the previous year.So, I certainly believe one of the main goals of the Trump administration is to harden the border and initiate greater deportations. And these steps in my mind come on the back of steps that the Biden administration already took around the middle of last year that began to slow immigration flows.So yes, I do think we should look for a reversal of the immigration driven boost to the economy. But Mike, I would actually throw this question back to you and say on the first day of his presidency, Trump issued a series of executive orders pertaining to immigration. Where are we now in that process after these initial announcements? And what do you expect in terms of policy implementation?Michael Zezas: Well, I think you hit on it. There's two levers here. There's stepped up deportations and removals and there's working with Mexico on border enforcement. Things like the remain in Mexico policy where Mexico agrees to keep those seeking asylum on their side of the border; and to facilitate that, they've stepped up their military presence to do that.Those are really kind of the two levers that the U.S. is pushing on to try and reduce the flow of migrants coming into the U.S. Still to be determined how much these actually have an impact, but I think that's the direction of policy travel.Michael Gapen: And are there any catalysts specifically that you're watching for? I mean, recently the administration proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada around border control, but those have been delayed. Is there anything on the horizon we should look for this time around?Michael Zezas: Yeah. So obviously the president tied the potential for tariffs on Mexico and Canada to the idea that there should be some improvement on border enforcement. It's going to be difficult for investors, I think, to assess in real time how much progress has been made there. Mostly it's a data challenge here. There are official government statistics which have a good amount of detail about removals and folks stopped at the border and demographics in terms of age and, and whether or not they were working. That might really kind of help us piece together the story in terms of whether or not there's going to be future tariffs – and Michael, probably for you, to what extent there's an impact on the economy if folks are already in the labor force.But that data is on a lag, it'll be really difficult to tell what's happening now for at least several months. Maybe we're going to get some hints about what's going on for comments coming in earnings calls, for example, from companies that deal in construction and food service and hospitality. But I don't know that those anecdotes would be sufficient to really draw substantial conclusions. So, I think we're a bit in a fog for the next couple months on exactly what's happening.But based on all this, Michael, what's your outlook for immigration this year and beyond?Michael Gapen: Yeah, so we, as I mentioned, we were getting about 3 million immigrants per year between 2022 and 2024; long run averages before the pandemic were more like a million and a half a year. Our outlook is that immigration flows should slow below pre- COVID averages to about 1 million this year and about 500,000 in 2026. And again, that would be the well below the long run average of about a million and a half per year.Now, as you mentioned, understanding these flows in real time is hard and there's a lot of uncertainty around this and how effective policies may be. So, I think people should consider ranges around this baseline, if you will. On one hand, we could see a reduction in unauthorized immigration replaced by more authorized immigration. So maybe there's a benign scenario where immigration slows back to its one and a half million per year. But it's more through legal and formal channels than unauthorized channels.Alternatively, it could be the case that some of the policies, you mentioned in terms of, say, stepped up deportations or other measures, and maybe there's a chilling effect. That there's just like an externality on immigration behavior. And in fact, we slow maybe to about 500,000 this year and see a decline in about 250,000 next year.So, I think there's a lot of uncertainty about it. We think immigration slows below its longer run averages, which would represent a major shift from what we've seen over the last three years.Michael Zezas: Got it. So, lots of crosscurrents here, about how the actual labour supply is impacted. But bottom line, if we do arrive at a point where there's a significant reduction in immigration, what's the expectation about what that means for the U.S. economy?Michael Gapen: Yeah, so a lot of cross currents here. Number one, I think with a high degree of confidence, we can say reduced immigration should lead to slower potential growth, right? So, a slower growth in the labor force should mean slower growth in trend hours, right? Potential GDP is really only the sum of growth in trend hours and trend productivity.So, the surge in immigration we saw really boosted potential growth up to 2.5 per cent to 3 per cent in recent years. So, if we reduce immigration, potential growth should slow. I think back towards, say, 2 per cent this year, maybe even 1 to 1.5 per cent next year. So, you slow down growth in the labor force, potential should moderate.Second, and I think the more difficult question is, well, okay, if you also reduce growth in the labor force, you're going to get less employment, and that's a demand side effect. So, which dominates here, the supply side or the demand side? And here, I think to go back to your first question – yeah, I do think we're going to get a reversal of the outcome that we just saw.So, I think it'll moderate both potential and actual growth. So, I think actual growth slows. The amount of employment we see should decline and soften. We're not saying the level of employment will decline, but the growth rate of employment should slow. But it should coincide with a low unemployment rate, so it's going to be a very different labor market. A lot less employment growth, but still a tight labor market in terms of low unemployment.That should keep wages firm, particularly in the service sector where a lot of immigrants work, and we think it'll also help keep inflation firm. So, it could keep the Fed on the sideline for a significant period of time, for example.And I'd just like to close, Mike, by saying I think this is an underappreciated risk for financial markets. I think investors have digested trade policy uncertainty, but I'm not convinced that risks around immigration and their effect on the economy are well understood.Michael Zezas: Got it. Well Michael, thanks for taking the time to talk.Michael Gapen: Thank you.Michael Zezas: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast help us make it even more valuable to you. Share your feedback on the show at morganstanley.com/podcast-survey or head to the episode notes for the survey link.

This Day in Legal History: Bell and Gray File PatentsOn February 14, 1876, both Alexander Graham Bell and Elisha Gray filed patent applications for the invention of the telephone, setting off one of the most famous legal battles in U.S. history. Bell's lawyer submitted his paperwork to the U.S. Patent Office just hours before Gray's, leading to a dispute over who truly invented the device. Gray's filing was a "caveat," an intention to patent, while Bell's was a full application, giving him a legal advantage. When the patent was granted to Bell on March 7, 1876, Gray challenged it, arguing that Bell had improperly incorporated elements of Gray's liquid transmitter design.The controversy led to numerous lawsuits, with Gray and others accusing Bell of fraud and claiming he had seen Gray's filing before finalizing his own. Despite these challenges, the courts consistently ruled in Bell's favor, affirming his rights to the telephone patent. This legal victory gave Bell's company, later known as AT&T, control over the rapidly growing telephone industry. The case highlighted issues of patent timing, intellectual property rights, and legal strategy in technological innovation.The Bell-Gray dispute remains a landmark moment in patent law, demonstrating how the slightest timing difference can determine the outcome of major technological advancements. It also underscored the competitive nature of the late 19th-century invention boom, where multiple inventors often worked on similar ideas simultaneously.Democratic attorneys general from 16 states issued guidance defending diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility (DEI) programs against recent executive orders from former President Trump. Led by Massachusetts AG Andrea Joy Campbell and Illinois AG Kwame Raoul, they argued that DEI initiatives remain legal under existing anti-discrimination laws, including Title VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act. The Trump administration's orders call for eliminating DEI efforts from federal agencies and scrutinizing private-sector programs, conflating lawful diversity policies with illegal hiring preferences, the AGs said.Major corporations like Google and Amazon have adjusted or rebranded their DEI initiatives in response to legal uncertainty. The guidance clarifies that policies promoting workplace diversity—such as broad recruitment efforts and impact assessments—are legally distinct from unlawful hiring preferences. Courts have long upheld employers' ability to consider the effects of their policies on different groups to prevent discrimination claims.Meanwhile, Republican AGs, including Missouri's Andrew Bailey, are pushing businesses to abandon DEI programs. Bailey recently sued Starbucks, accusing the company of violating civil rights laws through its DEI initiatives. The conflicting state-level actions highlight the growing legal and political battle over corporate diversity policies.Democratic AGs Defend DEI Against ‘Misleading' Trump DirectivesTwo federal judges will decide whether Elon Musk's government cost-cutting team, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), can access sensitive U.S. government systems. Since his appointment by President Trump last month, Musk has led efforts to eliminate wasteful spending, but critics argue his team lacks legal authority to handle Treasury payment systems and sensitive agency data.Judge Jeannette Vargas in Manhattan will consider a request from Democratic attorneys general to extend a temporary block preventing DOGE from accessing Treasury systems that process trillions in payments. The states argue Musk's team could misuse personal data and disrupt funding for health clinics, preschools, and climate programs.In Washington, Judge John Bates will review a separate request from unions seeking to prevent DOGE from accessing records at the Department of Health and Human Services, the Labor Department, and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Bates previously ruled in favor of the Trump administration but will now reconsider after the unions amended their lawsuit.Democratic AGs have also filed a separate lawsuit claiming Musk's appointment is unconstitutional and seeking to block him from making personnel decisions or canceling contracts. While courts have blocked several of Trump's initiatives, his administration has continued firing government workers and cutting foreign aid, mostly targeting programs opposed by conservatives.Musk's DOGE team: Judges to consider barring it from US government systems | ReutersA federal judge has ordered the Trump administration to restore funding for hundreds of foreign aid contractors affected by a 90-day funding freeze. The ruling temporarily blocks the administration from canceling foreign aid contracts and grants that were in place before Trump took office on January 20.  The decision came in response to a lawsuit filed by two health organizations that rely on U.S. funding for overseas programs. The Trump administration had halted all foreign aid payments, claiming the pause was necessary to review program efficiency and alignment with policy priorities. However, Judge Amir Ali ruled that the government had not provided a rational justification for the sweeping suspension, which disrupted agreements with businesses, nonprofits, and organizations worldwide.  Trump has also ordered federal agencies to prepare for major job cuts, leading to layoffs among government workers without full job protections. His administration has already removed or sidelined hundreds of civil servants and top officials, part of a broader effort to reshape the federal workforce and consolidate power among political allies.Judge orders US to restore funds for foreign aid programs | ReutersA federal judge has ordered the release of Supreme Court advocate Tom Goldstein, three days after he was jailed for allegedly violating pretrial release conditions in a tax fraud case. Goldstein, a prominent appellate lawyer and co-founder of SCOTUSblog, was indicted last month on 22 counts of tax evasion related to his high-stakes poker winnings and alleged misuse of law firm funds to cover debts.Chief U.S. Magistrate Judge Timothy Sullivan ruled that there was insufficient evidence to keep Goldstein incarcerated for allegedly concealing cryptocurrency transactions. However, the judge imposed new restrictions, including monitoring his internet use and prohibiting cryptocurrency transfers.Prosecutors claimed Goldstein secretly moved millions in crypto after his initial release, prompting his second arrest. Goldstein argued the transactions occurred in 2023 and that he did not own the accounts in question. While the judge found Goldstein's evidence created enough doubt to justify his release, he also suggested Goldstein may still have access to hidden funds that could enable him to flee. Goldstein has pleaded not guilty, and his legal team maintains the government's case lacks proof.Supreme Court veteran Goldstein wins release again in tax crimes case | ReutersThis week's closing theme is by Gustav Mahler.Gustav Mahler (1860–1911) was a visionary composer and conductor whose symphonies bridged the late Romantic and early modern eras. Known for his deeply personal and expansive works, Mahler infused his music with themes of life, death, and transcendence. His Symphony No. 2, often called the Resurrection Symphony, is one of his most ambitious compositions, blending massive orchestral forces with choral elements to explore the journey from despair to spiritual renewal.The symphony's fifth and final movement, Im Tempo des Scherzo – Aufersteh'n, is a dramatic culmination of the work's themes. It begins in chaos, with the orchestra depicting the terror of the apocalypse, before gradually moving toward light and resolution. The music builds in intensity until the choir enters softly, singing the text of Friedrich Klopstock's Resurrection Ode, which speaks of rising again after death. Mahler expands on these words, adding his own lines about redemption and eternal life.The movement swells to one of the most powerful climaxes in symphonic history, with soaring brass, thunderous percussion, and a triumphant chorus proclaiming victory over death. The final moments are a breathtaking ascent, as the music dissolves into radiant serenity. This movement is more than just a finale; it is an emotional and philosophical journey, offering a sense of transcendence that has resonated with audiences for over a century.Without further ado, Gustav Mahler's Symphony No. 2, the fifth and final movement – Im Tempo des Scherzo.  This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.minimumcomp.com/subscribe

Join Ed Clissold, Chief U.S. Strategist at Ned Davis Research, as he dives into the key market drivers shaping the U.S. economy in 2025. Ed explores how shifting economic trends are influencing investor strategies and the broader market landscape.

This Day in Legal History: Judiciary Act of 1801On February 13, 1801, the U.S. Congress passed the Judiciary Act of 1801, a controversial law that reshaped the federal court system. Enacted in the final days of John Adams' presidency, the Act reduced the number of Supreme Court justices from six to five and created sixteen new federal judgeships. It also eliminated the justices' duty to "ride circuit" by establishing separate circuit courts with their own judges. The law expanded federal jurisdiction, making it easier for creditors to bring cases in federal courts and granting them broader enforcement powers. Federalists, who controlled Congress at the time, saw this as a way to strengthen the judiciary before Democratic-Republican Thomas Jefferson took office.Adams quickly filled the newly created judgeships with Federalist allies, leading to accusations of court-packing and what became known as the "Midnight Judges" scandal. Jefferson and his party viewed the Act as an illegitimate attempt to entrench Federalist power in the judiciary. In 1802, the newly elected Republican-majority Congress repealed the Act, effectively undoing the judicial restructuring. This marked one of the first major political battles over the structure and independence of the federal courts. It also set the stage for future conflicts over judicial appointments and reforms.The Judiciary Act of 1801 played a key role in shaping the relationship between the executive, legislative, and judicial branches. It demonstrated how shifts in political power could influence the courts and foreshadowed later debates over judicial authority. The controversy surrounding the Act also contributed to the landmark 1803 case Marbury v. Madison, in which Chief Justice John Marshall established the principle of judicial review. This episode remains a crucial moment in American legal history, illustrating the judiciary's evolving role in government.Cathy Harris, a Democratic appointee to the Merit Systems Protection Board (MSPB), has sued President Trump over her removal from office, arguing that the firing was unlawful. Trump also dismissed Ray Limon, the board's vice chair, and replaced Harris with Republican Henry Kerner as acting chair. The MSPB, an independent agency, hears appeals from federal workers who are fired or disciplined—a role that could become crucial as Trump pushes to shrink the federal workforce.Harris argues that her removal violates legal protections for independent agency officials, citing the Supreme Court's 1935 ruling in Humphrey's Executor v. United States, which limits a president's ability to fire certain officials without cause. Trump's decision to involve Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency in identifying federal job cuts adds urgency to the case. The lawsuit is part of a broader legal battle, as Gwynne Wilcox, another Democratic official fired from the National Labor Relations Board, has filed a similar claim.A hearing is set for Thursday before U.S. District Judge Rudolph Contreras, where Harris is seeking a temporary restraining order to regain her position. The White House defends Trump's authority to remove officials, setting up a potential Supreme Court fight over presidential power and the future of independent agencies.Member of US government employee appeals board sues over Trump firing | ReutersA federal court in Massachusetts has implemented new rules to curb "judge shopping" as lawsuits against President Trump's policies continue to mount. Chief U.S. District Judge F. Dennis Saylor issued an order requiring that cases seeking to block federal laws or policies be randomly assigned across the entire district, preventing litigants from filing in single-judge courthouses in Springfield and Worcester to secure favorable rulings.This move aligns with a 2024 U.S. Judicial Conference policy aimed at discouraging strategic case filings, a practice criticized when conservatives challenged Democratic policies in Texas courts with Republican-appointed judges. Massachusetts, a frequent battleground for legal challenges to Trump's agenda, has seen its judges temporarily block his administration's efforts on government employee buyouts, research funding cuts, and prison transfers for transgender individuals.With most of Massachusetts' federal judges appointed by Democratic presidents, the concern was that plaintiffs could manipulate the system by filing in small courthouses with sympathetic judges. While some federal districts have adopted similar rules, others, including in Texas, have resisted. The issue remains contentious, with Senate Republicans and some conservative judges opposing the policy as unnecessary judicial interference.Massachusetts federal court curbs 'judge shopping' as Trump lawsuits mount | ReutersThe explosive growth of Bitcoin has brought with it a significant environmental toll, with mining now consuming up to 2.6% of U.S. electricity and producing emissions comparable to entire nations. Bitcoin's proof-of-work (PoW) system relies on energy-intensive mining, straining electrical grids, driving up prices, and using vast amounts of water for cooling. Despite these concerns, states like Texas have embraced miners, offering low-cost energy and deregulated markets.The Trump administration's January 2025 executive order on digital assets calls for “responsible growth,” but it remains unclear whether sustainability will be a priority. The order could enable states to integrate eco-friendly policies, such as tax incentives for green mining or licensing tied to renewable energy use. Addressing crypto's environmental impact could also be framed as an issue of energy independence and national security, potentially making it more politically viable.A carbon tax on PoW mining could be one way to push the industry toward cleaner energy, though it would be a tough sell under a deregulatory GOP administration. However, some conservatives, including economist Art Laffer, have supported carbon taxation in the past. If Bitcoin miners want to avoid future crackdowns, they may need to adopt sustainability measures before stricter policies are imposed. Whether the executive order leads to real change remains uncertain, but the environmental costs of crypto mining are only growing.Bitcoin's Boom Comes With Corresponding Booming Environmental Costs This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.minimumcomp.com/subscribe

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why U.S. stocks took a hit that is likely to sustain through the first half of 2025.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing tariffs, recent developments in AI and what it means for stocks.It's Monday, Feb 3rd at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it.While 2024 was a strong year for many stocks, it was mostly a second half story. With recession fears peaking last summer and a Fed that remained on hold due to still elevated inflation, markets were essentially flat year-to-date in early August.But then everything changed. The Fed surprised markets with a 50 basis points cut to show its commitment to keeping the economy out of recession. This was followed by better labor data and two more 25 basis points cuts from the Fed. Investors took this as a green light to add more equity to portfolios—the riskier the better. It also became clear to markets and many observers that President Trump was likely going to win the election, with a rising chance of a Republican sweep in Congress. Given the more pro-growth agenda proposed by candidate Trump and his track record during his first term as President, he made investors even more bullish. Finally, given all the concern about a hung election, the fact that we got such definitive results on election night only added fuel to the equation. Hedges were swiftly removed and even reversed to long positions as both asset managers and retail investors chased performance for fear of falling behind, or missing out. In October, I suggested the S&P 500 would likely trade to 6100 on a clean election outcome. After promptly hitting that level in early December, stocks had a very weak month to finish the year with deteriorating breadth. The S&P 500 started the year soft before rallying sharply into inauguration day, essentially re-testing that 6100 level once again. The difference this time is that the re-test occurred on much lower breadth with high quality resuming its leadership role. Tariffs were always on the agenda, as was immigration enforcement, both of which are growth negative in the short-term.In my view, investors simply got complacent about these risks and are now dealing with them in real time. This also fits with our view that the first half of the year was likely to be tougher for stocks as equity negative policies would be implemented immediately before the equity positive policies like de-regulation, tax extensions and reduced government spending had time to play out in the form of less crowding out and lower interest rates. At the Index level, I expect the S&P 500 to trade in a range between 5500 to 6100 for the next 3 to 6 months, with our fourth quarter price target at 6500 remaining intact. Since we have been expecting tariffs to be implemented, this realization only furthers our preference for consumer services over goods. It also supports our preference for financials and other domestically geared businesses that have limited currency or trade exposures. In addition to rising political uncertainty, we also saw the release of DeepSeek's latest AI chat bot last week. This added another level of uncertainty for investors that could have lasting implications at both the stock and index level given the importance of this investment theme. On one hand it could also accelerate the adoption of AI technologies if it truly lowers the cost – but many portfolios will need to adjust for this shift if that's the case. We think it further supports our ongoing preference for software and media over semiconductors. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Stocks selling off after President Trump announced new – and wide sweeping – tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China… But new as of the 10AM ET hour: Mexico's tariffs will be delayed for a month. Carl Quintanilla, Sara Eisen, and David Faber broke down what it all means for stocks, yields, and the Fed's path for rates. Tariff talk within: Why one Canadian auto parts supplier says vehicle production could “grind to a halt”; Goldman's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist forecasting tariffs could hit S&P earnings as much as 2-3%; The top U.S. states that could benefit – or feel the pinch – of trade swings; and the latest out of CNBC's exclusive Fed Survey on potential market impacts Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

Amid global complexities, China's economic outlook presents both challenges and opportunities that are crucial to investment considerations. In this episode of All the Credit®, we weigh possible growth scenarios for China, the impacts of tariffs, private sector confidence, and property sector challenges. We assess the nation's fiscal strategies, rising social unrest, and geopolitical tensions with the U.S. and Taiwan. PGIM Fixed Income's Tom Porcelli, Chief U.S. Economist, hosts Shikeb Farooqui, PhD, Lead Asia Economist. Recorded on January 9, 2025.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson considers the year-end slump in U.S. stocks, and whether more market-friendly policies can change the narrative.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing the weak finish to 2024 and what it means for 2025. It's Monday, Jan 6th at 11:30am in New York. So let's get after it.While 2024 was another solid year for US equity markets, December was not. The weak finish to the year is likely attributable to several factors. First, from September to the end of November, equity markets had one of their better 3-month runs that also capped the historically strong 1- and 2-year advances. This rally was due to a combination of events including a reversal of recession fears this summer, an aggressive 50 basis points start to a new Fed cutting cycle, and an election that resulted in both a Republican sweep and an unchallenged outcome that led to covering of hedges into early December. This also lines up with my view in October that the S&P 500 could run to 6,100 on a decisive election outcome.Second, long-term interest rates have backed up considerably since the summer when recession fears peaked. Importantly, this 100 basis point back-up in the 10-year US Treasury yield occurred as the Fed cut interest rates by 100 basis points. In my view, the bond market may be calling into question the Fed's decision to cut rates so aggressively in the context of stabilizing employment data. The fact that the term premium has risen by 77 basis points from the September lows is also significant and may be a by-product of this dynamic and uncertainty around fiscal sustainability. As we suggested two months ago, if the change in the term premium was to materially exceed 50 basis points, the equity market could start to take notice and hurt valuations. Indeed, Equity multiples peaked in early- to mid-December around the time when the term premium crossed this threshold. Finally, the rise in rates and the Trump election win has ushered in a stronger dollar which is now reaching a level that could also weigh on equities with significant international exposure. More specifically, the US dollar is quickly approaching the 10 per cent year-over-year rate of change threshold that has historically pressured S&P 500 earnings growth and guidance. All of these factors have combined to weigh on market breadth, something that still looks like a warning. The divergence between the S&P 500 Index as a ratio of its 200-day moving average and the percent of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average has rarely been wider. This divergence can close in two ways—either breadth improves or the S&P 500 trades closer to its own 200-day moving average, which is 10 per cent below current prices. The first scenario likely relies on a combination of lower rates, a weaker dollar, clarity on tariff policy and stronger earnings revisions. In the absence of those developments, we think 2025 could be a year of two halves with the first half being more challenged before the more market-friendly policy changes can have their desired effects.It's also worth pointing out that this gap between index pricing and breadth has been more persistent in recent years, something that we attribute to the generous liquidity provisions provided by the Treasury and the Fed. It's also been aided by interventions from other central banks. While not a perfect measure, we do find that the year-over-year change in global money supply in US Dollars is a good way to monitor key inflection points, and that measure has recently rolled over again. The recent moves in rates and US dollar is just another reason to stick with quality equities. Our quality bias is rooted in the notion that we remain in a later cycle environment which is typical of a backdrop that is consistent with outperformance of this cohort and the fact that the relative earnings revisions for this high quality factor are inflecting higher. As long as these dynamics persist, we think it also makes sense to stay selective within cyclicals and focused on areas of the market that are showing clear relative strength in earnings revisions. These groups include Software, Financials, and Media & Entertainment.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Original Release Date November 26, 2024: Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson joins Andrew Pauker of the U.S. Equity Strategy team to break down the key issues for equity markets ahead of 2025, including the impact of potential deregulation and tariffs.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: 2024 was a year of transition for economies and global markets. Central banks began easing interest rates, U.S. elections signaled significant policy change, and Generative AI made a quantum leap in adoption and development.Thank you for listening throughout 2024, as we navigated the issues and events that shaped financial markets, and society. We hope you'll join us next year as we continue to bring you the most up to date information on the financial world. This week, please enjoy some encores of episodes over the last few months and we'll be back with all new episodes in January. From all of us on Thoughts on the Market, Happy Holidays, and a very Happy New Year. Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist.Andrew Pauker: And I'm Andrew Pauker from our US Equity Strategy Team.Mike Wilson: Today we'll discuss our 2025 outlook for US equities.It's Tuesday, November 26th at 5pm.So let's get after it.Andrew Pauker: Mike, we're forecasting a year-end 2025 price target of 6,500 for the S&P 500. That's about 9 percent upside from current levels. Walk us through the drivers of that price target from an earnings and valuation standpoint.Mike Wilson: Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, this is really just rolling forward what we did this summer, which is we started to incorporate our economists' soft-landing views. And, of course, our rate strategist view for 10-year yields, which, you know, factors into valuation.We really didn't change any of our earnings forecast. That's where we've been very accurate. What we've been not accurate is on the multiple. And I think a lot of clients have also -- investors -- have been probably a little bit too conservative on their multiple assumption. And so, we went back and looked at, you know, periods when earnings growth is above average, which is what we're expecting. And that's just about 8 percent; anything north of that. Plus, when the Fed is actually cutting rates, which was not the case this past summer, it's just very difficult to see multiples go down. So, we actually do have about 5 percent depreciation in our multiple assumption on a year-over-year basis, but still it's very high relative to history.But if the base case plays out, but from an economic standpoint and from a rate standpoint, it's unlikely earnings rates are going to come down. So, then we basically can get all of the appreciation from our earnings forecast for about, you know, 10-12 percent; a little bit of a discount from multiples, that gets you your 9 percent upside.I just want to, you know, make sure listeners understand that the macro-outcomes are still very uncertain. And so just like this year, you know, we maybe pivot back and forth throughout the year … as [it] becomes [clear], you know, what the outcome is actually going to be.For example, growth could be better; growth could be worse; rates could be higher; the Fed may not cut rates; they may have to raise rates again if inflation comes back. So, I would just, you know, make sure people understand it's not going to be a straight line no matter what happens. And we're going to try to navigate that with, you know, our style sector picks.Andrew Pauker: There are a number of new policy dynamics to think through post the election that may have a significant impact on markets as we head into 2025, Mike. What are the potential policy changes that you think could be most impactful for equities next year?Mike Wilson: Yeah, and I think a lot of this started to get discounted into the markets this fall, you know, the prediction polls were kinda leaning towards a Republican win, starting really in June – and it kind of went back and forth and then it really picked up steam in September and October. And the thing that the markets, equity market, are most excited about I would say, is this idea of deregulation. You know, that's something President-elect Trump has talked about. The Republicans seem to be on board with that. That sort of business friendly, if you will, kind of a repeat of his first term.I would say on the negative side what markets are maybe wary about, of course, is tariffs. But here there's a lot of uncertainty too. We obviously got a tweet last night from President-elect Trump, and it was, you know, 10 percent additional tariffs on certain things. And there's just a lot of confusion. Some stocks sold off on that. But remember a lot of stocks rallied yesterday on the news of Scott Bessent being announced as Treasury Secretary because he's maybe not going to be as tough on tariffs.So, what I view the next two months as is sort of a trial period where we're going to see a lot of announcements going out. And then the people in the cabinet positions who are appointed along with the President-elect are going to look at how the market reacts. And they're going to want to try to, you know, think about that in the context of how they're going to propose policy when they actually take office.So, a lot of volatility over the next two months as these announcements are kind of floated out there as trial balloons. And then, of course, you also have the enforcement of immigration and the impact there on growth and also labor supply and labor costs. And that could be a net negative in the first half of next year. And so, look, it's going to be about the sequencing. Those are the two easy ones that you can see – tariffs of some form, and of course, immigration enforcement. And those are probably the two biggest potential negatives in the first half of next year.Andrew Pauker: Mike, the title of our Outlook is “Stay Nimble Amid Changing Market Leadership,” and I think that reflects our mentality when it comes to remaining focused on capturing the leadership changes under the surface of the market. We rotated from a defensive posture over the summer to a more pro-cyclical stance in the fall. Talk about our latest views when it comes to positioning across styles, themes, and sectors here.Mike Wilson: Yeah, I mean, you know, you have to understand that that pivot was not about the election as much as it was about kind of the economy, moving from the risk of a hard landing, which people were worried about this summer to, soft landing again. And then of course we got the Fed to, you know, aggressively begin a new rate cutting cycle with 50 basis points, which was a bit of a surprise given, you know, the context of a still decent labor markets.That was the main reason for kind of the cyclical pivot, and then, of course, the election outcome sort of turbocharges some of that. So that's why we're sticking with it for now.So, to be more specific, what we basically did was we went to quality cyclical rotation. What does that mean? It means, you know, we prefer things like financials, maybe industrials, kind of a close second from a sector standpoint. But this quality feature we think is important for people to consider because interest rates are still pretty high. You know, balance sheets are still a little stretched and, you know, price levels are still high.So that means that lower quality businesses -- and the stocks of those lower quality businesses -- are probably a higher risk than we want to assume right now. But going into year end first and in 2025, we're going to stick with what we've sort of been recommending. On the defensive side. We didn't abandon all of them – because of , you know, we don't know how it's going to play out. So, we kept Utilities as an overweight because it has some offensive properties as well – most notably lever to kind of this, power deficiency within the United States. And that, of course with deregulation, a new twist on that could be things like natural gas, deployment of, you know, natural gas resources, which would help pipelines, LNG facilities potentially, and also, new ways to drive electricity production.So, with that, Andrew, why don't you maybe dig in a little bit deeper on our financials column, and why it's not just, you know, about the election and kind of a rotation, but there's actually fundamental drivers here.Andrew Pauker: Yeah, so Financials remains our top sector pick, following our upgrade in early October. And the drivers of that view are – a rebounding capital markets backdrop, strong earnings revisions, and the potential for an acceleration in buybacks into next year. And then post the election, expectation for deregulation can also continue to drive performance for the sector in addition to those fundamental catalysts. And then finally, even with the outperformance that we've seen for the group, over the last month and a half or so, relative valuation remains on demand – and kind of the 50th percentile of historical levels.So, Mike, I want to wrap up by spending a minute on investor feedback to our outlook. Which aspects of our view have you gotten the most questions on? Where do investors agree and where do they disagree?Mike Wilson: Yeah, I mean, it's sort of been ongoing because, as we noted, we really pivoted, more constructively on kind of a pro-cyclical basis a while ago. And the pushback then is the same as it is now, which is that equities are expensive. And I mean, quite frankly, the reason we pivoted to some of these more cyclical areas is because they're not as expensive. But that doesn't take away from the fact that stocks are pricey. And so, people just want to understand this analysis that, you know, we did this time around, which kind of just shows why multiples can stay higher.They do appreciate that, you know, things can change. So, you know, we need to be, you know, cognizant of that. I would say, there's also debate around small caps. You know, we're neutral on small caps; we upgraded that about the same time after having been underweight for several years.I think, you know, people really want to get behind that. It's been a; it's been a trade that people have gotten wrong, repeatedly over the last couple years trying to buy small caps. This time it seems like there may be some more behind it. We agree. That's why we went to neutral. And I think, you know, there are people who want to figure out, well, why? Why don't we go overweight now? And what we're really waiting for is for rates to come down a bit more. It's still sort of a late cycle environment. So, you know, typically you want to wait until you kind of see the beginnings of a new acceleration in the economy. And that's not what our economists are forecasting.And then the other area is just this debate around government efficiency. And this is where I'm actually most excited because this is not priced at all in my view. There's so much skepticism around the ability or, you know, the likelihood of success in shrinking the government. That's not really what we're, you know, hoping for. We're just hoping for kind of a freezing of government spending. And it's so important to just, to think about it that way because that's what the fiscal sustainability question is all about, where then rates can stay contained. But then if you take it a step further, you know, our view for the last several years has been that the government has been essentially crowding out the private economy, and that really has punished small, medium businesses as well as many consumers.And so, by shrinking or at least freezing the size of the government and redeploying those efforts into the private economy, we could see a very significant increase in productivity, but also see a broadening out in this rally. I mean, one of the reasons the market's been; equity market's been so narrow is because is because scale really matters in this crowded out, sort of environment.If that changes, that creates opportunity at the stock level and that broadening out, which is a much healthier bull market potential.So, what are you hearing from investors, Andrew?Andrew Pauker: Yeah, I mean, I think the debate now, in addition to the factors that you mentioned, is really around the consumer space. A lot of pessimism is in the price already for consumer discretionary goods on the back of – kind of wallet share shift from goods to services, high price levels and sticky interest rates in addition to the tariff risk.So, what we did in our note this week is we laid out a couple of drivers that could potentially get us more positive on that cohort. And those include a reversion in terms of the wallet share shift actually back towards goods. I think that would be a function of lower price levels. Lower interest rates – our rate strategists expect the 10-year yield to fall to 355 by year end 2025. So that would be a constructive backdrop for some of the more interest rate sensitive and housing areas within consumer discretionary.Those are all factors that watching closely in order to get more constructive on that space. But that is another area of the market that I have received a good amount of questions on.Mike Wilson: That's great, Andrew. Thanks a lot. Thanks for taking the time to talk today.Andrew Pauker: Thanks, Mike. Anytime.Mike Wilson: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy joins our Chief U.S. Economist to discuss the Fed's recent rate cut and why persistent inflation is likely to slow the pace of future cuts.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew: Today, we're going to talk about the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the path for rates from here.It's Thursday, December 19th at 10a.m. in New York.The FOMC meeting concluded yesterday with the Federal Reserve cutting rates by a quarter of a percentage point, marking the third rate cut for the year. This move by the Fed was just as the consensus had anticipated. However, in its meeting yesterday, the Fed indicated that 2025 rate cuts would happen at a slower pace than investors were expecting. So Mike, what are committee members projecting in terms of upcoming rate cuts in 2025 and 2026?Michael: Yeah, Matt, the Fed dialed back its expectations for policy rate easing in both 2025 and 2026. They now only look for two rate cuts of 50 basis points worth of cuts in 2025, which would bring the funds rate to 3.9% and then only another 50 basis points in 2026, bringing the policy rate to 3.4%. So a major dialing back in their expectations of rate cuts over the next two years.Matthew: What are the factors that are driving what now appears to be a slightly less dovish view of the policy rate?Michael: Chair Powell mentioned, I think, two things that were really important. One, he said that many committee members saw recent firmness in inflation as a surprise. And so I think some FOMC members extrapolated that strength in inflation going forward and therefore thought fewer rate cuts were appropriate. But Chair Powell also said other FOMC members incorporated expectations about potential changes in policy, which we inferred to mean changes about tariffs, immigration policy, maybe additional fiscal spending. And so whether they bake that in as explicit assumptions or just saw it as risks to the outlook, I think that these were the two main factors. So either just momentum in inflation or views on policy rate changes, which could lead to greater inflation going forward.Matthew: So Mike, what were your expectations going into this meeting and how did yesterday's outcome change Morgan Stanley's outlook for Federal Reserve policy next year and the year thereafter?Michael: We are a little more comfortable with inflation than the Fed appears to be. So we previously thought the Fed would be cutting rates three times next year and doing all of that in the first half of the year. But we have to listen to what they're thinking and it appears that the bar for rate cuts is higher. In other words, they may need more evidence to reduce policy rates. One month of inflation isn't going to do it, for example. So what we did is we took one rate cut out of the forecast for 2025. We now only look for two rate cuts in 2025, one in March and one in June.As we look into 2026, we do think the effect of higher tariffs and restrictions on immigration policy will slow the economy more, so we continue to look for more rate cuts in 2026 than the Fed is projecting but obviously 2026 is a long way away. So in short, Matt, we dialed back our assumptions for policy rate easing to take into account what the Fed appears to be saying about a higher bar for comfort on inflation before they ease again.So Matt, if I can actually turn it back to you: how, if at all, did yesterday's meeting, and what Chair Powell said, change some of your key forecasts?Matthew: So we came into this meeting advocating for a neutral stance in the bond market. We had seen a market pricing that ended up being more in line with the outcome of the meetings. We didn't expect yields to fall dramatically in the wake of this meeting, and we didn't expect yields to rise dramatically in the wake of this meeting. But what we ended up seeing in the marketplace was higher yields as a result of a policy projection that I think surprised investors somewhat and now the market is pricing an outlook that is somewhat similar to how the Fed is forecasting or projecting their policy rate into the future.In terms of our treasury yield forecasts, we didn't see anything in that meeting that changes the outlook for treasury markets all that much. As you said, Mike, that in 2026, we're expecting much lower policy rates. And that ultimately is going to weigh on treasury yields as we make our way through the course of 2025. When we forecast market rates or prices, we have to think about where we are going to be in the future and how we're going to be thinking about the future from then. And so when we think about where our treasury yield's going to be at the end of 2025, we need to try to invoke the views of investors at the end of 2025, which of course are going to be looking out into 2026.So when we consider the rate policy path that you're projecting at the moment and the factors that are driving that rate policy projection - a slower growth, for example, a bit more moderate inflation - we do think that investors will be looking towards investing in the government bond market as we make our way through next year, because 2026 should be even more supportive of government bond markets than perhaps the economy and Fed policy might be in 2025.So that's how we think about the interest rate marketplace. We continue to project a 10 year treasury yield of just about three and a half percent at the end of 2025 that does seem a ways away from where we are today, with the 10 year treasury yield closer to four and a half percent, but a year is a long time. And that's plenty of time, we think, for yields to move lower gradually as policy does as well. On the foreign exchange side. The dollar we are projecting to soften next year, and this would be in line with our view for lower treasury yields. For the time being, the dollar reacted in a very positive way to the FOMC meeting this week but we think in 2025, you will see some softening in the dollar. And that primarily occurs against the Australian dollar, the Euro, as well as the Yen. We are projecting the dollar/yen exchange rate to end next year just below 140, which is going to be quite a move from current levels, but we do think that a year is plenty of time to see the dollar depreciate and that again links up very nicely with our forecast for lower treasury yields.Mike, with that said, one more question for you, if you would: where do things stand with inflation now? And how does this latest FOMC signal, how does it relate to inflation expectations for the year ahead?Michael: So right now, inflation has been a little bit stronger than we and I think the Fed had anticipated, and that's coming from two sources. One, hurricane-related effects on car prices. So the need to replace a lot of cars has pushed new and used car prices higher. We think that's a temporary story that's likely to reverse in the coming months. The more longer term concern has been around housing related inflation, or what we would call shelter inflation. The good news in that is in November, it took a marked step lower. So I do think it tells us that that component, which has been holding up inflation, will continue to move down. But as we look ahead to your point about inflation expectations, the real concern here is about potential shifts in policy, maybe the implementation of tariffs, the restriction of immigration.We as economists would normally say those should have level effects or one-off effects on inflation. And normally I'd have a high confidence in that statement. But we just came out of a very prolonged period of higher than normal inflation, so I think the concern is repetitive, one-off shocks to inflation, lead inflation expectations to move higher. Now, we don't think that will happen. Our outlook is for rate cuts, but this is the concern. So we think inflation moves lower. But we're certainly watching the behavior of inflation expectations to see if our forecast is misguided.Matthew: Well, great Mike. Thanks so much for taking the time to talk.Mike: Great speaking with you, Matt.Matthew: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

This Day in Legal History: Korematsu DecisionOn December 18, 1944, the U.S. Supreme Court delivered its controversial decision in Korematsu v. United States, upholding the forced relocation and internment of Japanese Americans during World War II. The case challenged Executive Order 9066, issued by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1942, which authorized the removal of over 120,000 Japanese Americans from their homes to internment camps. Fred Korematsu, a U.S. citizen of Japanese descent, defied the order, arguing that it violated his constitutional rights.In a 6-3 decision, the Court ruled that the internment was a valid exercise of wartime authority, emphasizing the need to protect national security over individual rights during a period of "emergency and peril." Writing for the majority, Justice Hugo Black stated that the internment was not based on racial prejudice but on military necessity, a justification many have since criticized as a flawed rationale.The dissenting justices, including Justice Murphy, condemned the decision as a blatant violation of constitutional rights and a form of racial discrimination. Justice Murphy called the internment camps "a legalization of racism," while Justice Jackson warned of the dangerous precedent the ruling could set.Though the decision has never been explicitly overturned, Korematsu has been widely discredited. In 1983, Korematsu's conviction was vacated by a federal court, acknowledging government misconduct in the case. In 2018, the Supreme Court criticized the decision in Trump v. Hawaii, stating it "was gravely wrong the day it was decided."The legacy of Korematsu remains a stark reminder of the fragility of civil liberties during times of fear and conflict, prompting ongoing discussions about justice, prejudice, and constitutional protections. It should inspire us to question how firmly we hold our principles when we don't hold fast to them in the face of consequence but instead abandon them entirely; when we preference a temporary assuaging of fear among the skittish masses above the rights of citizens. Korematsu remains a stain on U.S. history and carries continued resonance into the modern day, as we confront the consequences of electing a president, House, and Senate largely on the strength of their promise to intern ethnic minorities. Those that would seek to distance our actions today from 1944 would suggest that interned Japanese-Americans were largely citizens, and detained immigrants today are not – but this raises the question of who controls the bestowing of citizenship, the immigrant or the state?A federal judge, Michael Ponsor, faced ethical violations after criticizing Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito in a New York Times essay. Ponsor condemned Alito for displaying controversial flags outside his properties, including an upside-down American flag associated with Trump supporters during the January 6 Capitol riot. The critique spurred a judicial misconduct complaint by the conservative Article III Project, leading to an investigation.Chief U.S. Circuit Judge Albert Diaz ruled that Ponsor's essay undermined public confidence in judicial integrity and violated the Code of Conduct for U.S. Judges by commenting on partisan issues. Though the essay did not reference a specific case, it coincided with debates about Alito's potential recusal from cases involving the January 6 riot and Trump's immunity bid. Ponsor apologized in a letter, acknowledging the ethical breach and committing to consulting judicial panels before future public writings.The controversy highlights tensions surrounding judicial impartiality and political commentary, particularly as it intersects with high-profile cases and public scrutiny. Just to check the box score here, that is one judicial misconduct violation for the judge that criticized the justice that flew insurrectionist flags at his home–none for the latter. Judge's criticism of US Supreme Court's Alito over flags is deemed improper | ReutersElon Musk has publicly opposed the Republican plan to temporarily fund the government, adding tension to Speaker Mike Johnson's efforts to secure a deal before Friday's shutdown deadline. The proposed legislation includes billions in disaster relief and agricultural funding, angering fiscal conservatives. Musk, tapped by President-elect Donald Trump to advise on government efficiency, criticized the bill on X, reflecting growing conservative discontent. Johnson acknowledged Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy's concerns but stressed the need for bipartisan cooperation given the narrow Republican majority.The funding dispute highlights ongoing GOP divisions that previously ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Johnson faces an even slimmer majority due to recent election losses and Trump's appointment of three Republican representatives to his administration. This leaves the party with a precarious one-vote margin until special elections in April. Conservatives like Marjorie Taylor Greene have criticized the bill's added spending as unnecessary, predicting it will gain more Democratic than Republican support, risking further internal conflict.Johnson remains confident about retaining his position as Speaker despite challenges, emphasizing his focus on immediate legislative priorities, including the budget blueprint and border security measures.Trump Key Adviser Musk Comes Out Against Year-End Funding BillA special master has ordered TikTok Inc. to provide source code, financial data, and usage data for its apps, including CapCut and BytePlus Video Editor, in a trade secrets and copyright infringement case filed by Beijing Meishe Network Technology Co. The Chinese tech company alleges that TikTok misappropriated its video and audio editing source code, accusing a former Meishe engineer of trade theft before joining TikTok.The case, originally filed in Texas in 2021, was transferred to California in 2023. TikTok argued that discovery about its apps, including Faceu and Lemon8, was irrelevant because U.S. laws do not typically apply to conduct outside the country. However, the special master, Hon. Kendall J. Newman (Ret.), ruled that discovery was necessary since Meishe may recover damages for foreign infringement if it can show TikTok copied its code in the U.S. and used it abroad.TikTok has 30 days to comply with the order, which allows Meishe to pursue claims involving extraterritorial damages. Meanwhile, TikTok also faces a potential U.S. government ban unless its parent company, ByteDance Ltd., divests the app by January 19. On the same day, Newman partially granted TikTok's request to compel Meishe to disclose documents about its affiliate XAT, which allegedly developed the disputed source code.TikTok Must Turn Over Code, Financial Data in Trade Secrets SuitDemocratic state attorneys general (AGs) are preparing to defend environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives against expected challenges from the incoming Trump administration and Republican-controlled Congress. They plan to leverage the Supreme Court's decision in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, which limits agency regulatory authority, to counter potential anti-ESG actions that lack explicit congressional approval. Minnesota AG Keith Ellison and Nevada AG Aaron Ford emphasized their readiness to use legal frameworks like the Administrative Procedure Act and Loper Bright to protect ESG-related policies.Concerns include possible rollbacks of Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rules facilitating ESG proposals, restrictions on corporate diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives, and curtailment of climate-related disclosures. The GOP's Project 2025 agenda calls for sweeping changes, including a task force to challenge ESG/DEI practices and reclassification of DEI as discriminatory. Ellison and Ford argue such measures risk undermining civil rights and shareholder freedoms.Democratic AGs have pledged to challenge these policies in court and defend existing ESG regulations, such as the SEC's climate disclosure rules. Meanwhile, Republican AGs are aligning with Trump's deregulatory agenda, with Tennessee AG Jonathan Skrmetti noting their support through briefs and interventions. Both sides are preparing for extensive legal battles over the regulatory future of ESG and DEI initiatives.Blue State AGs Prepare to Use Loper Bright Ruling to Defend ESG This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.minimumcomp.com/subscribe

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist recaps how equity markets have fared in 2024, and why they might look more conservative early in the new year.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing how to position as we head into the new year.It's Monday, Dec 16th at 11:30am in New York. So let's get after it.The big question for most investors trying to beat the S&P 500 is whether returns will continue to be dominated by the Magnificent 7 and a few other high quality large cap stocks or if we're going to will see a sustainable broadening out of performance to new areas. Truth be told, 2024 has been a year during which investors have oscillated between a view of broadening out or continued narrowing. This preference has coincided with the ever-changing macro view about growth and inflation and how the Fed would respond.To recount this past year, our original framework suggested investors would have to contend with markets reacting to these different macro-outcomes. More specifically, whether the economy would end up in a soft landing, a hard landing or a “no landing” outcome of accelerating growth and inflation. Getting this view right helped us navigate what kinds of stocks, sectors and factors would outperform during the year. The perfect portfolio this year would have been overweight broad cyclicals like energy, industrials and financials in the first quarter, followed by a Magnificent 7 tilt in early 2Q that got more defensive over the summer before shifting back toward high quality cyclicals in late third quarter. Lately, that cyclical tilt has included some lower quality stocks while the Magnificent 7 has had a big resurgence in the past few weeks. We attributed these shifts to the changing perceptions on the macro which have been more uncertain than normal.Going into next year, I think this pattern continues, and it currently makes sense to have a barbell of large cap high quality cyclicals and growth stocks even though small caps and the biggest losers of the prior year tend to outperform in January as portfolios rebalance. We remain up the quality curve because it appears the seasonal low quality cyclical small cap rally was pulled forward this year due to the decisive election outcome. In addition to the large hedges being removed, there was also a spike in many confidence surveys which further spilled into excitement about this small cap lower quality rotation.Therefore, it makes sense that the short-term euphoria that's now taking a break with the rotation back toward large cap quality mentioned earlier. The fundamental driver of this rotation is earnings. Both earnings revisions and the expected growth rate of earnings next year remain much better for higher quality stocks and sectors. Given the uncertainty around policy sequencing and implementation on tariffs, immigration and how much the Fed can cut rates next year, we suspect equity markets will tread a bit more conservatively in the first quarter than what we observed this fall.The biggest risks to the upside would be a more modest implementation of tariffs, a de-emphasis on deportations of working illegal immigrants and perhaps more aggressive de-regulation that is viewed as pro-growth. Other variables worth watching closely include how quickly and aggressively the new department of government efficiency acts with respect to shrinking the size of the Federal agencies. While I'm hopeful this new effort can prove the skeptics wrong, success may prove to be growth negative in the near term given how much the government has been driving overall GDP growth for the past few years. In my view, a true broadening out of the economy and the stock market is contingent on a smaller government both in terms of regulation and absolute size. In my view, this is the most exciting potential change for taxpayers, smaller businesses and markets overall. However, it is also likely to take several years to fully manifest.In the meantime, I wish you a happy holiday season and a healthy and prosperous New Year.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist says that while equity market activity suggests a measured level of optimism about 2025, the questions around tariffs and inflation have tempered expectations.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I will be discussing how equity markets have traded post the election and how this fits with our thinking.It's Tuesday, Dec 10 at 11:30am in New York. So let's get after it. Post the election, our focus has been on the potential for a rebound in animal spirits like we observed following the 2016 election. During that historical period, we saw a broad-based surge in corporate, consumer and investor confidence as the sentiment analysis we've done shows. So far over the last month, sentiment data has reflected a more measured level of optimism led by small business confidence while services related business outlooks were actually tempered somewhat. Our assessment of the details of these surveys and commentary from corporates suggests that consumers and companies are feeling more optimistic heading into 2025. But the uncertainty around tariffs and the still elevated price levels are likely holding back the type of exuberance we saw post the 2016 election.In 2016, we were also coming out of an industrial/manufacturing downturn, which was then aided by aggressive China stimulus. Due to that downturn, interest rates were much lower globally and sovereign deficits and balance sheets were in much better shape to absorb reflationary type policies like tax cuts and deregulation. As a result, the equity market almost immediately embraced an expansionary fiscal agenda that was interpreted as being pro-growth. Today, that policy agenda appears to be less front-footed in this regard, perhaps due to some of these constraints.Nevertheless, these dynamics are still supportive of our preference for more cyclical sectors. However, given the stickiness of interest rates, it also makes sense to remain up the quality curve within cyclicals and constructively focused on sectors with clearer de-regulation tailwinds. As a result, Financials remain our preferred over-weight, followed by Software, Utilities and Industrials. On the topic of interest rates, we find it interesting that the correlation of S&P 500 returns versus the change in bond yields remains in positive territory. In other words, good macro data is good for equity returns. Furthermore, there is a clear bifurcation in terms of this correlation between cyclical and defensive sectors. Cyclical sectors are showing a positive correlation to rates, with one exception of Materials, while defensive cohorts are showing a negative correlation except for Utilities.In our view, this is a sign that cyclicals and the market overall still like stronger macro data even if it comes amid higher yields. Having said that, there is a point where this dynamic would likely reverse if interest rates rise due to less dovish monetary policy or an increase in the term premium. In April of this year, that level was 4.5 per cent on the 10-year Treasury yield when growth and inflation drove the term premium higher. For now, rates remain contained well below that threshold and the term premium is close to zero.On the flipside, a material decline in yields due to weakness in the macro growth data would also hurt cyclical stocks disproportionately leaving 4.00-4.50 per cent on the 10-year treasury yield as the sweet spot for equity valuations. Yields below that range can certainly be tolerated by equities assuming the driver is Fed rate cuts in the absence of a material slowdown in growth. Yields above that range can also be tolerated if the pace of the rate rise is measured, and the driver is stronger nominal growth versus a more hawkish Fed or a rising inflation. Finally, as we approach year-end, December seasonality is likely to be a focal point for investors. Over the past 45 years, the S&P 500's median return over the month of December is 1.5 per cent and the index has a positive return 73 per cent of the time. Notably, almost all of that performance comes in the second half of the month. These trends are directionally consistent for the Russell 2000 small cap index except that it's even stronger at about 2.5 per cent. This performance could be further enhanced by the larger post-election spike in small business confidence mentioned earlier. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

The last time today's expert was on the program back in July, she was concerned about rising unemployment. Is she still as worried about it as we prepare to enter a new year with a new Administration taking over? To find out, we have the good fortune to talk today with Dr Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist for Bloomberg Economics. Prior to her current role, Anna also worked at the Federal Reserve Board, the White House Council of Economics Advisers, and the U.S. Treasury. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #unemployment #jobs #economy --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson joins Andrew Pauker of the U.S. Equity Strategy team to break down the key issues for equity markets ahead of 2025, including the impact of potential deregulation and tariffs.----- Transcript -----Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist.Andrew Pauker: And I'm Andrew Pauker from our US Equity Strategy Team.Mike Wilson: Today we'll discuss our 2025 outlook for US equities.It's Tuesday, November 26th at 5pm.So let's get after it.Andrew Pauker: Mike, we're forecasting a year-end 2025 price target of 6,500 for the S&P 500. That's about 9 percent upside from current levels. Walk us through the drivers of that price target from an earnings and valuation standpoint.Mike Wilson: Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, this is really just rolling forward what we did this summer, which is we started to incorporate our economists' soft-landing views. And, of course, our rate strategist view for 10-year yields, which, you know, factors into valuation.We really didn't change any of our earnings forecast. That's where we've been very accurate. What we've been not accurate is on the multiple. And I think a lot of clients have also -- investors -- have been probably a little bit too conservative on their multiple assumption. And so, we went back and looked at, you know, periods when earnings growth is above average, which is what we're expecting. And that's just about 8 percent; anything north of that. Plus, when the Fed is actually cutting rates, which was not the case this past summer, it's just very difficult to see multiples go down. So, we actually do have about 5 percent depreciation in our multiple assumption on a year-over-year basis, but still it's very high relative to history.But if the base case plays out, but from an economic standpoint and from a rate standpoint, it's unlikely earnings rates are going to come down. So, then we basically can get all of the appreciation from our earnings forecast for about, you know, 10-12 percent; a little bit of a discount from multiples, that gets you your 9 percent upside.I just want to, you know, make sure listeners understand that the macro-outcomes are still very uncertain. And so just like this year, you know, we maybe pivot back and forth throughout the year … as [it] becomes [clear], you know, what the outcome is actually going to be.For example, growth could be better; growth could be worse; rates could be higher; the Fed may not cut rates; they may have to raise rates again if inflation comes back. So, I would just, you know, make sure people understand it's not going to be a straight line no matter what happens. And we're going to try to navigate that with, you know, our style sector picks.Andrew Pauker: There are a number of new policy dynamics to think through post the election that may have a significant impact on markets as we head into 2025, Mike. What are the potential policy changes that you think could be most impactful for equities next year?Mike Wilson: Yeah, and I think a lot of this started to get discounted into the markets this fall, you know, the prediction polls were kinda leaning towards a Republican win, starting really in June – and it kind of went back and forth and then it really picked up steam in September and October. And the thing that the markets, equity market, are most excited about I would say, is this idea of deregulation. You know, that's something President-elect Trump has talked about. The Republicans seem to be on board with that. That sort of business friendly, if you will, kind of a repeat of his first term.I would say on the negative side what markets are maybe wary about, of course, is tariffs. But here there's a lot of uncertainty too. We obviously got a tweet last night from President-elect Trump, and it was, you know, 10 percent additional tariffs on certain things. And there's just a lot of confusion. Some stocks sold off on that. But remember a lot of stocks rallied yesterday on the news of Scott Bessent being announced as Treasury Secretary because he's maybe not going to be as tough on tariffs.So, what I view the next two months as is sort of a trial period where we're going to see a lot of announcements going out. And then the people in the cabinet positions who are appointed along with the President-elect are going to look at how the market reacts. And they're going to want to try to, you know, think about that in the context of how they're going to propose policy when they actually take office.So, a lot of volatility over the next two months as these announcements are kind of floated out there as trial balloons. And then, of course, you also have the enforcement of immigration and the impact there on growth and also labor supply and labor costs. And that could be a net negative in the first half of next year. And so, look, it's going to be about the sequencing. Those are the two easy ones that you can see – tariffs of some form, and of course, immigration enforcement. And those are probably the two biggest potential negatives in the first half of next year.Andrew Pauker: Mike, the title of our Outlook is “Stay Nimble Amid Changing Market Leadership,” and I think that reflects our mentality when it comes to remaining focused on capturing the leadership changes under the surface of the market. We rotated from a defensive posture over the summer to a more pro-cyclical stance in the fall. Talk about our latest views when it comes to positioning across styles, themes, and sectors here.Mike Wilson: Yeah, I mean, you know, you have to understand that that pivot was not about the election as much as it was about kind of the economy, moving from the risk of a hard landing, which people were worried about this summer to, soft landing again. And then of course we got the Fed to, you know, aggressively begin a new rate cutting cycle with 50 basis points, which was a bit of a surprise given, you know, the context of a still decent labor markets.That was the main reason for kind of the cyclical pivot, and then, of course, the election outcome sort of turbocharges some of that. So that's why we're sticking with it for now.So, to be more specific, what we basically did was we went to quality cyclical rotation. What does that mean? It means, you know, we prefer things like financials, maybe industrials, kind of a close second from a sector standpoint. But this quality feature we think is important for people to consider because interest rates are still pretty high. You know, balance sheets are still a little stretched and, you know, price levels are still high.So that means that lower quality businesses -- and the stocks of those lower quality businesses -- are probably a higher risk than we want to assume right now. But going into year end first and in 2025, we're going to stick with what we've sort of been recommending. On the defensive side. We didn't abandon all of them – because of , you know, we don't know how it's going to play out. So, we kept Utilities as an overweight because it has some offensive properties as well – most notably lever to kind of this, power deficiency within the United States. And that, of course with deregulation, a new twist on that could be things like natural gas, deployment of, you know, natural gas resources, which would help pipelines, LNG facilities potentially, and also, new ways to drive electricity production.So, with that, Andrew, why don't you maybe dig in a little bit deeper on our financials column, and why it's not just, you know, about the election and kind of a rotation, but there's actually fundamental drivers here.Andrew Pauker: Yeah, so Financials remains our top sector pick, following our upgrade in early October. And the drivers of that view are – a rebounding capital markets backdrop, strong earnings revisions, and the potential for an acceleration in buybacks into next year. And then post the election, expectation for deregulation can also continue to drive performance for the sector in addition to those fundamental catalysts. And then finally, even with the outperformance that we've seen for the group, over the last month and a half or so, relative valuation remains on demand – and kind of the 50th percentile of historical levels.So, Mike, I want to wrap up by spending a minute on investor feedback to our outlook. Which aspects of our view have you gotten the most questions on? Where do investors agree and where do they disagree?Mike Wilson: Yeah, I mean, it's sort of been ongoing because, as we noted, we really pivoted, more constructively on kind of a pro-cyclical basis a while ago. And the pushback then is the same as it is now, which is that equities are expensive. And I mean, quite frankly, the reason we pivoted to some of these more cyclical areas is because they're not as expensive. But that doesn't take away from the fact that stocks are pricey. And so, people just want to understand this analysis that, you know, we did this time around, which kind of just shows why multiples can stay higher.They do appreciate that, you know, things can change. So, you know, we need to be, you know, cognizant of that. I would say, there's also debate around small caps. You know, we're neutral on small caps; we upgraded that about the same time after having been underweight for several years.I think, you know, people really want to get behind that. It's been a; it's been a trade that people have gotten wrong, repeatedly over the last couple years trying to buy small caps. This time it seems like there may be some more behind it. We agree. That's why we went to neutral. And I think, you know, there are people who want to figure out, well, why? Why don't we go overweight now? And what we're really waiting for is for rates to come down a bit more. It's still sort of a late cycle environment. So, you know, typically you want to wait until you kind of see the beginnings of a new acceleration in the economy. And that's not what our economists are forecasting.And then the other area is just this debate around government efficiency. And this is where I'm actually most excited because this is not priced at all in my view. There's so much skepticism around the ability or, you know, the likelihood of success in shrinking the government. That's not really what we're, you know, hoping for. We're just hoping for kind of a freezing of government spending. And it's so important to just, to think about it that way because that's what the fiscal sustainability question is all about, where then rates can stay contained. But then if you take it a step further, you know, our view for the last several years has been that the government has been essentially crowding out the private economy, and that really has punished small, medium businesses as well as many consumers.And so, by shrinking or at least freezing the size of the government and redeploying those efforts into the private economy, we could see a very significant increase in productivity, but also see a broadening out in this rally. I mean, one of the reasons the market's been; equity market's been so narrow is because is because scale really matters in this crowded out, sort of environment.If that changes, that creates opportunity at the stock level and that broadening out, which is a much healthier bull market potential.So, what are you hearing from investors, Andrew?Andrew Pauker: Yeah, I mean, I think the debate now, in addition to the factors that you mentioned, is really around the consumer space. A lot of pessimism is in the price already for consumer discretionary goods on the back of – kind of wallet share shift from goods to services, high price levels and sticky interest rates in addition to the tariff risk.So, what we did in our note this week is we laid out a couple of drivers that could potentially get us more positive on that cohort. And those include a reversion in terms of the wallet share shift actually back towards goods. I think that would be a function of lower price levels. Lower interest rates – our rate strategists expect the 10-year yield to fall to 355 by year end 2025. So that would be a constructive backdrop for some of the more interest rate sensitive and housing areas within consumer discretionary.Those are all factors that watching closely in order to get more constructive on that space. But that is another area of the market that I have received a good amount of questions on.Mike Wilson: That's great, Andrew. Thanks a lot. Thanks for taking the time to talk today.Andrew Pauker: Thanks, Mike. Anytime.Mike Wilson: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Voters overwhelming ushered in a new Republican majority. But what can investors expect when it comes to key issues like regulation and inflationary policy? One thing is for certain: You can bet on change.Join Head of Public Policy Jason Cole and Chief U.S. Economist Lara Rhame as they dive into what the Trump win means for markets, policy and the economy.  Have a question for our experts? Text us for a chance to have your questions answered on the next episode.For more research insights go to FSInvestments.com https://bit.ly/m/fsinvestments

Explore the latest insights from the U.S. employment report in this episode of Research Recap on J.P. Morgan's Making Sense podcast. Phoebe White, Head of U.S. Inflation Market Strategy, teams up with Mike Feroli, Chief U.S. Economist, to dissect the October employment data and its implications for the economy and the Federal Reserve. With a disappointing gain in non-farm jobs and the impact of hurricanes and strikes still uncertain, the duo analyzes the broader signals from the labor market, wage growth, and economic momentum as we head into the fourth quarter. They also delve into the potential effects of the upcoming Fed meeting and election on monetary policy and market volatility. This episode was recorded on November 1, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively, J.P. Morgan) normally make a market and trade as principal in securities, other financial products and other asset classes that may be discussed in this communication. This communication has been prepared based upon information from sources believed to be reliable, but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to J.P. Morgan and/or its affiliates and an analyst's involvement with any company (or security, other financial product or other asset class) that may be the subject of this communication. Any opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. J.P. Morgan Research does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Any opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned or related to the information herein. Periodic updates may be provided on companies, issuers or industries based on specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. However, J.P. Morgan may be restricted from updating information contained in this communication for regulatory or other reasons. This communication may not be redistributed or retransmitted, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of J.P. Morgan. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitutes your agreement not to redistribute or retransmit the contents and information contained in this communication without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of J.P. Morgan. Copyright 2024, JPMorganChase & Co. All rights reserved.

As his term comes to a close, U.S. District Court Chief Judge Tim Corrigan joins us to discuss his time on the bench.

What challenges and opportunities lie ahead for oil markets amid looming oversupply and fluctuating demand? In this episode of All the Credit®, we delve into the outlook of crude oil, exploring supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical risks, and potential impacts from the 2024 U.S. election. We examine various energy subsectors and the financial health of U.S. energy companies. PGIM Fixed Income's Tom Porcelli, Chief U.S. Economist, hosts Dave Winans, U.S. Investment Grade Credit Research Analyst.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist explains his preference for cyclical stocks amid a rise in global money supply and current US election dynamics.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about our recent upgrade of quality cyclicals and how it will be affected by the US election and liquidity.It's Monday, Oct 21st at 11:30am in New York. So let's get after it. We continue to have conviction in our recent cyclical shift and Financials upgrade. Indeed, cyclicals traded well last week as most economic data came in stronger than expected. It's worth noting we recommend investors stay up the quality curve within the cyclical space, however. While Financials have been the best performing sector in the S&P 500 since our upgrade, institutional investors remain under-exposed to Financials based on our data suggesting the sector can run further. In addition to better economic data, there are other factors affecting pro-cyclical stocks. We are focused on two, in particular. The election and global liquidity. We believe a Trump win with a split Congress would provide a pro-cyclical bias with small caps keeping pace with large caps. The markets seem to agree, with the recent cyclicals outperformance led by financials. Meanwhile, consumer stocks negatively exposed to tariff risks under a Trump win have underperformed. Interestingly, there is some overlap between this recent leadership and the post Biden debate period in early July as well as the months surrounding the 2016 election. Finally, we've also witnessed higher interest rates and a stronger US Dollar more recently, which is something to watch closely as a possible headwind for liquidity post election and into 2025. While some argue a Trump win would be a headwind for growth and equity markets, due to tariff risks and slower immigration, we think there's an additional element from the 2016 experience that's worth considering—rising animal spirits. More specifically, in 2016 Trump's pro-business approach led to the largest three-month positive impact on small business confidence in the past 40 years. It also translated into a spike in individual investor sentiment. It appears to me that markets may be trying to front-run a repeat of this outcome as Trump's win in 2016 came as a surprise to pundits and markets alike.This also means a Harris win could lead to some reversion in terms of overall equity market performance and leadership. Most notably, bonds could potentially rally with defensive and quality growth stocks doing better like earlier this year. Secondarily, even with a Trump win, certain areas of the market may be vulnerable to a ‘sell the news' phenomena if the upside is already priced amid bullish positioning. On this front, we would also point out that the economic set-up today is very different than the 2016 period when the economy had much more slack and could absorb additional pro-cyclical policies like tax cuts or other forms of fiscal stimulus.Turning to liquidity, we note that global money supply in US dollars has surged at an 18 per cent annualized rate since the end of June. I believe this has also had a positive effect on equity prices, not to mention credit spreads, precious metals, cryptocurrencies and real estate. Bottom line, in the absence of a major swing in election probabilities or global liquidity between now and the election, equity markets are likely to trade with a bullish tilt both at the index level and from a style, sector, factor standpoint. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

The U.S. labor market exceeded expectations in September, adding 254,000 nonfarm payrolls and surpassing all forecasts. Join Phoebe White, Head of U.S. Inflation Strategy at J.P. Morgan, and Mike Feroli, Chief U.S. Economist, as they break down the latest employment report and its far-reaching implications. In this episode, Phoebe and Mike analyze the surprising resilience of the labor market, the interplay between labor data and consumer spending, and the impact of rising average hourly earnings. They also discuss the Federal Reserve's potential responses, balancing the dual mandates of controlling inflation and maintaining employment. Tune in for an in-depth exploration of the current economic landscape and what it could mean for the future.   This episode was recorded on October 4, 2024.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively, J.P. Morgan) normally make a market and trade as principal in securities, other financial products and other asset classes that may be discussed in this communication.   This communication has been prepared based upon information from sources believed to be reliable, but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to J.P. Morgan and/or its affiliates and an analyst's involvement with any company (or security, other financial product or other asset class) that may be the subject of this communication. Any opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. J.P. Morgan Research does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Any opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned or related to the information herein. Periodic updates may be provided on companies, issuers or industries based on specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. However, J.P. Morgan may be restricted from updating information contained in this communication for regulatory or other reasons. This communication may not be redistributed or retransmitted, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of J.P. Morgan. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitutes your agreement not to redistribute or retransmit the contents and information contained in this communication without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of J.P. Morgan.   Copyright 2024, JPMorganChase & Co. All rights reserved.

We are 34 days away from election day. Join FS Investments' Chief U.S. Economist Lara Rhame and Head of Public Policy Jason Cole as they dive into the critical issues surrounding the election. While the top of the ticket gets most of the focus, control of Congress also hangs in the balance in November. They discuss polling data, the battleground states and the potential outcomes for the House and Senate. With an important tax debate on the horizon and heightened economic uncertainty, find out what investors need to know as we approach Election Day. Tune in for insights on the market impact, fiscal policy and the broader economic outlook.

Are your financial decisions shaped by emotions or grounded in logic? The difference could have a bigger impact on your financial future than you think.This week on Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, host an insightful conversation recorded live at the Excel Conference, featuring leading financial minds: Ed Clissold, CFA, Chief U.S. Strategist at Ned Davis Research; Brian Portnoy, CFA, Founder of Shaping Wealth; and Adam Holt, CFP®, ChFC®, CEO & Founder of Asset-Map Holdings.Together, they examine the behavioral and emotional forces that drive both individual investment decisions and broader market trends. From managing emotional reactions in volatile markets to harnessing the power of storytelling in financial advice, they reveal how financial advisors can elevate their approach. The discussion also explores the complexities of guiding families through financial planning, the critical importance of financial literacy for future generations, and a cautiously optimistic look at today's economic indicators.Key Highlights:Behavioral Finance & Emotional Intelligence: Brian Portnoy highlights the central role of emotions in decision-making. He urges advisors to act as behavioral coaches, helping clients manage their emotional responses to market fluctuations and stay focused on long-term goals.Market Sentiment & Political Reactions: Ed Clissold explains how market tops and bottoms are often driven by emotional extremes like optimism and pessimism. He also touches on how elections can create short-term volatility, but markets typically react independently of political outcomes. Ed reminds advisors to rely on data-driven insights rather than emotional biases when advising clients.Holistic Financial Planning & Storytelling: Adam Holt and Brian Portnoy emphasize the importance of taking a comprehensive approach to financial planning, addressing risks like under-insurance and longevity. Brian adds that storytelling is a powerful tool for advisors, helping clients connect with their financial goals on a deeper level.Market Outlook & Economic Indicators: Ed provides a cautiously optimistic market outlook, highlighting strong consumer spending and investment. While sentiment indicators, like the yield curve, suggest some potential slowdowns, Ed believes a soft landing is more likely than a severe recession.Financial Literacy & Family Dynamics: The panel underscores the importance of improving financial literacy, particularly for younger generations, to prepare them for long-term financial health. Brian also notes the complexities of advising families, emphasizing that advisors must adapt their communication styles to effectively engage all family members in the planning process.Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ed Clissold: LinkedIn: Ed Clissold, CFAConnect with Brian Portnoy: LinkedIn: Brian Portnoy, CFA Connect with Adam Holt: LinkedIn: H. Adam Holt, CFP®, ChFC®Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickX: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseX: Sonu Varghese

Join host Ritu Vohora and Chief U.S. Economist Blerina Uruçi on “The Angle” as they dive into U.S. fiscal policy, candidate tax plans, and the potential impact of election outcomes on the economy.

Jonathan Pingle, Chief U.S. Economist at UBS, weighs in. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Guy Adami and Danny Moses are joined by Mike Wilson, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley. They delve into recent economic developments, focusing on market volatility, Fed policies, and inflation. Mike discusses currency movements, particularly the Yen, and their implications. He provides insights into the labor market's current state, inflation's impact on consumer spending, and the potential economic slowdown. The conversation also covers the performance of quality defensive stocks, energy and industrial stocks amidst late-cycle trends, and the evolving AI technology landscape. The podcast ends with a brief diversion into NFL picks for the week. Subscribe to our newsletter: https://riskreversalmedia.beehiiv.com/subscribe — About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money's Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They're offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we're here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. — Check out our show notes here See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. — Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod on Twitter or @riskreversalmedia on Threads — We're on social: Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow Liz Thomas @LizThomasStrat on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Following weaker-than-expected August jobs data, our CIO and Chief U.S Equity Strategist lays out how the Federal Reserve can ease concerns about a possible hard landing.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about the labor market's impact on equity markets.It's Monday, Sept 9th at 11:30am in New York. So let's get after it.Last week, I wrote a detailed note discussing the importance of the labor data for equity markets. Importantly, I pointed out that since the materially weaker than expected July labor report, the S&P 500 has bounced more than other "macro" markets like rates, currencies and commodities. In the absence of a reacceleration in the labor data, we concluded the S&P 500 was trading out of sync with the fundamentals. Over the past week, we received several labor market data points, which were weaker than expected. First, the Job Openings data for July was softer than expected coming in at 7.7mm versus the consensus expectation of 8.1mm. In addition, June's initial result was revised lower by 274k. This essentially supported the view that the weak payrolls data in July may, in fact, not be related to weather or other temporary issues. Second, the job openings rate fell to 4.6%, which is very close to the 4.5% level Fed Governor Waller has cited as a threshold below which the unemployment rate could rise much faster. Third, the Fed's Beige Book came out last week. It indicated that activity remains sluggish with 9 of the 12 Federal Reserve districts reporting flat or declining activity in August, though commentary on labor markets was more neutral, rather than negative. These data sync nicely with the Conference Board's Employment Trends Index, which I find to be a very objective aggregate measure of the labor market's direction. This morning, we received the latest release for August Conference Board labor market trends and the trend remains down, but not necessarily recessionary. Of course, the main event last week was Friday's monthly jobs and unemployment reports, where the payroll survey number came in below consensus at 142k. In addition, last month's result was revised lower from 114k to 89k. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell by only a couple of basis points leaving investors unconvinced that July's labor weakness was overstated. Given much of these labor and other growth data have continued to skew to the downside, the macro markets (like rates, currencies, and Commodities) have been trading with more concern about potential hard landing risks. Perhaps nowhere is this more obvious than with 2-year US Treasuries. As of Friday, the spread between the 2-year Treasury yields and the Fed Funds Rate matched the widest levels in the past 40 years. This pricing suggests the bond market believes the Fed is behind the curve from an easing standpoint. On Friday, the equity market started to get in sync with this view and questioned whether a 25bp cut in September would be an adequate policy response to the labor data. In the context of an equity market that is still quite rich and based on well above average earnings growth assumptions, the correction on Friday seems quite appropriate. In my view, until the bond market starts to believe the Fed is no longer behind the curve, labor data reverses course and improves materially or additional policy stimulus is introduced, it will be difficult for equity markets to trade with a more risk on tone. This means valuations are likely to remain challenged for the overall index, while the leadership remains more defensive and in line with our sector and stock recommendations. We see two ways in which the Fed can get ahead of the curve—either faster cutting than expected which is unlikely in the absence of recessionary data; or the labor data starts to improve in a convincing manner and 2-year yields rise. Given the Fed is in the blackout period until next week's FOMC meeting, and there are not any major labor data reports due for almost a month, volatility will likely remain elevated and valuations under pressure overall. This all brings our previously discussed fair value range for the S&P 500 of 5000-5400 back into view.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

With less than 100 days until Americans hit the polls, how are markets reacting to the rapidly evolving headlines and how should investors navigate the most likely scenarios?Join our experts—Head of Public Policy Jason Cole, Chief U.S. Economist Lara Rhame and Chiron Funds Chief Investment Officer Ryan Caldwell—as they examine the possible policy implications from both administrations and the potential opportunities they may present for investors and allocators.

As the geopolitical landscape continues to shift in light of recent global election results, the consequential economic effects are becoming a primary focus in the investment sphere. This episode dives into the latest election outcomes in both developed and emerging nations, the growing divide in electorates, and the impact of these elections on fiscal deficits. This episode features PGIM Fixed Income's Katharine Neiss, PhD, Deputy Head of Global Economics and Chief European Economist, Mehill Marku, Head Geopolitical Analyst, Cathy Hepworth, CFA, Head of Emerging Markets Debt, and host Tom Porcelli, Chief U.S. Economist. Recorded on July 16, 2024.

The US economy appears to be slowing down. Final Q1 GDP growth came in at just 1.4% and, as of this recording, Q2 GDP is currently estimated to be little better, at 1.5%. Retail sales for May, the most recent data we have, only grew at 0.1%. And unemployment is starting to tick up, too, rising last week to 4.1%. Now, none of these stats are particularly worrisome on their own. But together, are they signalling rockier economic times could like ahead? To find out, we have the good fortunate to talk today with Dr Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist for Bloomberg Economics. Prior to her current role, Anna also worked at the Federal Reserve Board, the White House Council of Economics Advisers, and the U.S. Treasury. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #unemployment #jobs #recession --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist explains why economic fluctuations have made it more difficult to project a possible soft or no landing outcome, and how investors can navigate this continuing market volatility.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about the continued uncertainty in economic data and its impact on markets. It's Monday, June 10th at 11:30am in New York. So let's get after it. Over the past few months, the economic growth data has surprised to the downside with more data releases coming in below expectations than usual. Meanwhile, inflation surprises have skewed more to the upside. This is a challenging combination because it means the Fed can't cut rates yet even though it may make sense to keep the economic expansion going. As we have been discussing for months, aggressive fiscal spending is keeping the headline economy looking good on the surface. The bad news is that inflation remains too high for the Fed which has to keep interest rate policy too tight for many economic participants. Some may disagree with that statement, but we think it's hard to argue with the yield curve which remains significantly inverted and a valid indicator of interest rate policy. When combined with high price levels for many goods and services, the end result is a crowding out of many parts of the economy and consumers. From our perspective, this is most evident in the persistent underperformance of small cap stocks. In fact, this past week, small cap equities relative performance fell to new cycle lows. Even more concerning is that while small caps are showing greater interest rate sensitivity than large caps, it's also asymmetric. While higher rates are an obvious headwind for small caps, we're skeptical that lower rates offer a comparable benefit. Last week was a good example of this dynamic when small caps underperformed early in the week when rates rose and later in the week when rates fell. All of this argues for what we have been recommending — in an uncertain macro world, we think investors should stay up the quality curve with a barbell of both growth and cyclicals to participate in both the soft and no landing outcomes. We also think it makes sense to have some defensive exposure as a hedge against the above average risk of a recession that still looms. Given the more negative skew in the economic surprise data as noted, we think the defensive part of the portfolio should outweigh cyclicals at this point. We favor staples and utilities specifically in this regard. With markets sensitive to unpredictable inflation and labor data, it's very difficult to have an edge going into these releases, particularly on the labor front where the data itself has been subject to significant and ongoing revisions. While many market participants focus on the non-farm payroll data, these data have been subject to some of the larger revisions we've seen in recent history. Meanwhile, the household survey has been weaker than the non-farm payroll data and job openings have fallen persistently over the last 18 months. These diverging labor dynamics are classic late cycle phenomena based on our experience. For investors, it's just another reason to stay up the quality curve and to avoid positioning for a broadening out to lower quality areas. In our view, such a broadening is unlikely in any kind of sustainable way until the Fed cuts meaningfully — and by that we mean several hundred basis points rather than the one-to-two cuts that are now priced into the markets for this year. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.