Podcasts about highly improbable

The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Austin Branch, Dave Pitts, and Joe Miller discuss cognitive warfare, the gray zone, and intensifying great power competition. The ultimate goal is to compete by gaining and maintaining information advantage without kinetic fighting. Recording Date: 28 Apr  2025 Research Question: Has Russian cognitive warfare, including the use of reflexive control, red lines and nuclear threats, influenced US policy decisions regarding weapon deliveries and restrictions to Ukraine? Similarly, has Chinese cognitive warfare impacted US policy and strategic outcomes concerning Taiwan and the Philippines? Resources: Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned #24 John Davis on Modern Warfare, Teamwork, and Commercial Cognitive Security #62 Jonathan Rauch on the Constitution of Knowledge #222 JD Maddox on Emerging IO Opportunities Unrestricted Warfare by Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui The Cypher Brief Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder by Nassim Nicholas Taleb The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman Screenplay: The Foundations of Screenwriting by Syd Field Save the Cat Story Structure: Definition and Beat Sheet by Blake Snyder Link to full show notes and resources Guest Bio: Austin Branch founded Crescent Bridge to help serve the Information technical and cognitive needs of the Federal Government. Additionally, Austin joined ARLIS to help support the evolution of the Defense and U.S. Government Operations in the Information Environment (OIE) enterprise. Previously, Austin served as OIE Technology & Strategy at Secretary of the Air Force Directorate for Concepts, Development and Management (Exec IPA) after several years in the private sector at COLSA Corporation as the Executive Director for Information Strategies and Programs (2015-2021) after serving 30 years in Federal service as an Army Officer and Senior Civilian. He was commissioned as an Infantry Officer in 1986 from The Citadel, Charleston S.C. and went on to serve in multiple Command and Staff positions in conflict and in peace becoming the Army's first Information Operations Officer. Austin pioneered military operations in the information environment in key leadership positions in the Army, Joint Special Operations Command, Joint Staff, EUCOM, and deployed Joint and multinational Task Force Organizations across the globe. Upon retirement from the Army, Austin joined the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence as the Deputy Director and Chief of Operations for the Defense Policy Analysis Office with oversight of National special plans and technical operations. In 2008 was selected as a Defense Intelligence Senior Leader as Senior Advisor for Defense Information Operations focused on oversight, policy and support for Service and Joint Information Operations, and associated Special Access programs. In 2010, Austin was selected by the Secretary of Defense to lead the Information Operations and Military Information Support Defense Enterprise as the first Senior Director for this mission area in the Office of Policy and Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict. In this capacity, Austin was DOD's senior representative for IO, MISO, EW and special program oversight, policy and assessments. In 2013, Austin was selected by the Director for the National Counter-Terrorism Center and the DNI to establish and lead a new organization to address Domestic Counter Terrorism, Counter Violent Extremism, and Counter Terrorism Cyber Strategy and Policy in support of the National Security Council. In this capacity, he also served as the National Co-lead for countering ISIS propaganda and influence and associated IPC lead strategist for National Security Council. Austin is also one of the founder's of a Non-profit, Information Professionals Association (IPA). IPA is a professional organization established to serve the interests of the broader Information community worldwide and for issues related to Cognitive Security. Austin also served on the Defense Science Board summer 2019 study focused on great power competition in the Information Environment and was recently was selected to join the University of Maryland Advanced Research Laboratory for Intelligence & Security (ARLIS) to help lead development of their Cognitive Security & Information Portfolio. He also serves on various Advisory Board(s) and professional associations. Austin and his wife, Carol live in Bluffton SC and have three children. They have two serving in active duty in the Army and one in Medical School at Icahn School of Medicine, Mt Sinai, NY. Dave Pitts is a senior national security professional, former CIA executive, and veteran with over four decades of experience in challenging and critical missions, ranging from intelligence operations, counterterrorism and special operations to great power competition. Dave served as the Assistant Director of CIA for South and Central Asia, Chief of National Resources Division, senior leadership positions in the Counterterrorism Center—including in the strategic communications space—and led CIA's two largest Field Stations. Dave has a proven track record of leading large and diverse teams, building lasting partnerships, integrating innovative technologies, and delivering results in high-stakes and high-pressure situations. Dave is a thought leader, Cipher Brief Expert and a frequent writer and commentator on terrorism, great power competition, the gray zone, cognitive warfare and emerging global issues. Dave is a co-founder of The Cipher Briefs Gray Zone Group. Joe Miller, Senior Executive Service, is currently the Deputy Commander for Support at the US Army Special Operations Command, headquartered at Ft Bragg, N.C. Prior to his assignment to Ft Bragg, Joe was the J7 Director of Joint Training and Innovation at US NORAD/NORTHCOM at Peterson, AFB, Co and first SES assignment was the J5 Director, Policy, Strategy, Plans and Futures at US Special Operations Command at Mac Dill AFB, Fl. Joe is a retired US Army Colonel.  He has led and Commanded platoons, troops, detachments, a Battalion task force and a Brigade. He has served and operated in western Europe, the Balkans, the Middle East, SW Asia and throughout the Americas. He is a graduate of the University of Florida, Bachelor of Science in Business Administration with Honors, US Army Command and General Staff College and the School of Advanced Military Studies (Master of Military Arts and Sciences), an Army War College Fellowship. He earned a Master's Degree in Operations Research from the Air Force Institute of Technology.  He is a life Member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Joe is married with one son. About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain. For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org. Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn. Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.

Today, we are learning from Suzanne Whitby. Suzanne is a pragmatic optimist dedicated to co-creating hopeful, sustainable futures. A futurer, facilitator, communicator and storyteller, she leads Futures Fit, a futures & foresight consultancy that empowers businesses and communities to use the future to drive tangible change today. She is also the founder of SciComm Success, where she helps scientists and researchers communicate research results and impact, shining a light on the innovation and creativity essential for building better futures. Suzanne is an interdisciplinary researcher at VU Amsterdam, and she explores how place-based, multi-sensory stories of the future can encourage pro-environmental thinking and climate action using her senstoryscapes approach. Suzanne is South African and long-time resident of Innsbruck, Austria. She is an aspiring mindful person who does her best to tread lightly and intentionally on the earth. Let's get started... In this conversation with Suzanne Whitby, I learned: 00:00 Intro 03:55 Looking at experimental smelling futures of ancient Pompei and creating sensory maps. 05:40 Learning about sensory mapping and understanding what a smell or sound means. 09:00 We are making assumptions about how similar people are to us, but in reality, they are different. 10:45 For most of us, we change our minds based on emotions. 12:45 Feeling and experiencing possible futures. 16:30 The deficit model of science communication. 18:10 Discovering different futures and what future we would like to have? Most people want the same sort of things. 23:05 How can we have excuses to justify to ourselves? 25:25 Focus more on what we can gain instead of what we might lose. 29:35 Learning about scenario planning via a game and building resilience. 32:40 Supporting scientists with their communication after the BP oil spill. 35:20 Why communicating with society is important for scientists. 41:25 She got disillusioned by the corporate world in the UK. 43:25 The most important pivot for her business. 47:00 Co-creating hopeful, sustainable futures. 52:05 Equality vs equity, what does it mean? 1:00:15 The ideas are stepping stones. Sometimes an idea has to die in order to take you into a new direction. More about Suzanne Whitby: https://www.linkedin.com/in/suzannewhitby/  https://klimafit.eu/ https://www.futures.fit/  https://suzannewhitby.com/ https://futuringis.com/ (podcast) https://suzannewhitby.com/thegreatswitch/ (A weekly-ish newsletter documenting my journey of switching to tools that are open source, Europe-based, or aligned with better futures for all.) https://peopleplanetprosecco.eu/  https://scicommsuccess.com/ Resources Phoebe Tickell Imagination Activism to Create Systemic Shifts | Phoebe Tickell | IDG Summit 2023 From Inner Growth to Outer Change | Phoebe Tickell | Keynote x ChangeNOW2024 Imagination Activism | Phoebe Tickell - Planet Critical podcast VU Amsterdam Kate McLean - Sensory maps https://www.linkedin.com/posts/maren-urner_wir-m%C3%BCssen-reden-und-zwar-dar%C3%BCber-wie-activity-7312451758335623169-griG (Maren Urner - Wir mussen reden) https://www.linkedin.com/posts/michaelfritz-vivaconagua_miniaturwunderland-hamburg-klima-activity-7310198922885423106-k8a8/ (Why don't you see it video) Scenario planning (Wikipedia) De levende onderneming – Arie de Geus #boekencast afl 1 (Dutch) The Living Company: Growth, Learning and Longevity in business - Arie de Geus (book) The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb stem scientists = scientists that work in Science, technology, engineering, and mathematics. Seth Godin Video of the conversation with Suzanne Whitby https://youtu.be/F9l0F6i7aEk Watch the conversation here https://youtu.be/F9l0F6i7aEk

In this episode, we explore what it means to invest in a non-ergodic world—where time, not averages, determines outcomes. We unpack concepts like volatility drag, ensemble vs. time averages, and the implications for portfolio strategy, while also reflecting on how AI and zero-click search are reshaping business and investor behavior.Topics covered include:What is ergodicity and why it mattersHow path dependency and emerging phenomena disrupt the long-termHow podcasting and blogging has changedWhat is the future of Money for the Rest of UsEpisode SponsorsNetSuite LinkedIn Jobs – Use this link to post your job for free on LinkedIn JobsInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesWayback Machine: jdstein.comProbabilities and Payoffs: The Practicalities and Psychology of Expected Value by Michael J. Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, CFA—Morgan StanleyThe Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb—Penguin Random HouseThe 60% Problem — How AI Search Is Draining Your Traffic by Tor Constantino, MBA—ForbesHollywood Is Cranking Out Original Movies. Audiences Aren't Showing Up. by Ben Fritz—The Wall Street JournalHow Late Night TV Is Downsizing by Alex Weprin and Rick Porter—The Hollywood Reporter‘Severance' Surpasses ‘Ted Lasso' To Become Apple TV+'s Most Watched Series With Season 2 Launch by Nellie Andreeva—DeadlineList of most watched television broadcasts in the United States—WikipediaTao te Ching by Lao Tzu (Author), Marc Mullinax (Translator)—fortress pressWhy AI Might Not Take All Our Jobs—If We Act Quickly by Justin Lahart—The Wall Street JournalElon Musk and the Dangerous Myth of Omnigenius by Gautam Mukunda—BloombergSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Behold, the eye of Yahweh is on those who fear him,    on those who hope in his steadfast love, that he may deliver their soul from death    and keep them alive in famine. - Psalm 33:18-19   This Episode's Links and Timestamps: 00:00 – Scripture Reading 02:54 – Introduction 20:44 – Some Personal Reflections on Uncertainty, Predictability, and Planning 40:36 – The replies to this viral post are actually filled with wise advice. Take a look, then let's talk game theory. – Joel Abbott, NTB 58:25 – ‘The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable' by Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Goodreads 1:18:38 – Comparing and Contrasting Game Theory, Chaos Theory, and ‘The Black Swan' 1:30:41 – Commentary on Psalm 33

In the Sunday Book Review, I consider books that would interest the compliance professional, the business executive or anyone who might be curious. It could be books about business, compliance, history, leadership, current events, or anything else that might interest me. In today's edition of the Sunday Book Review, we look at four top book risks for the compliance professional in November 2024. Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk by Peter L. Bernstein The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Risk: A User's Guide by General Stanley McChrystal and Anna Butrico Risk: A Very Short Introduction by Baruch Fischhoff and John Kadvany Resources: Top Books To Read on Risk in 2024 in Dataminr.com For more information on the Ethico Toolkit for Middle Managers, available at no charge, click here.   For more information on the first Annual Compliance Podcast Network Agora Awards for Excellent in Podcasting and to register, click here. There is no charge for this event. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Brian Tolkin is the Head of Product at Opendoor. Previously, he was one of the early employees at Uber, where he was instrumental in launching and growing UberPool, UberHop, and UberExpress and started one of the first product operations teams in tech. In our conversation, we dive into:• How to enable product and ops to work well together• How to run great product reviews• How to make good decisions with limited data• How he uses the jobs-to-be-done framework at Opendoor• How to stay calm under pressure as a leader• Wild stories from his time at Uber• Challenges faced at Opendoor during the pandemic• Much more—Brought to you by:• Pendo—The only all-in-one product experience platform for any type of application• Explo—Embed customer-facing analytics in your product• Attio—The powerful, flexible CRM for fast-growing startups—Find the transcript and references at: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/scaling-uber-and-opendoor-brian-tolkin—Where to find Brian Tolkin:• X: https://x.com/briantolkin• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/briantolkin/—Where to find Lenny:• Newsletter: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com• X: https://twitter.com/lennysan• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/—In this episode, we cover:(00:00) Brian's background(02:14) Career beginnings at Uber(02:49) Transitioning from product operations to product management(06:47) Product and operations synergy(10:00) Surge pricing at Uber(12:18) Scaling challenges, and stories(15:47) Opendoor and Covid adaptations(25:38) Product reviews and Jobs to Be Done(40:30) The challenges of A/B testing(42:23) Increasing conviction in solutions(44:33) Leveraging intuition in product decisions(47:07) Partnering with Zillow(52:55) Staying calm under pressure(56:25) Finding the “kernel of truth” in product management(01:00:21) Failure corner: Early days of Uber Pool(01:06:11) Lightning round and final thoughts—Referenced:• Twitter's former Head of Product opens up: being fired, meeting Elon, changing stagnant culture, building consumer product, more | Kayvon Beykpour: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/twitters-former-head-of-product-kayvon-beykpour• Opendoor: https://sell.opendoor.com/• How to sell your ideas and rise within your company | Casey Winters, Eventbrite: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-to-sell-your-ideas-and-rise-within• Thinking beyond frameworks | Casey Winters (Pinterest, Eventbrite, Airbnb, Tinder, Canva, Reddit, Grubhub): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/thinking-beyond-frameworks-casey• Zigging vs. zagging: How HubSpot built a $30B company | Dharmesh Shah (co-founder/CTO): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/lessons-from-30-years-of-building• FlashTags: A Simple Hack for Conveying Context Without Confusion: https://www.onstartups.com/flashtags-a-simple-hack-for-conveying-context-without-confusion• Jobs to Be Done Theory: https://www.christenseninstitute.org/theory/jobs-to-be-done• The ultimate guide to JTBD | Bob Moesta (co-creator of the framework): https://www.lennyspodcast.com/the-ultimate-guide-to-jtbd-bob-moesta-co-creator-of-the-framework/• Zillow: https://www.zillow.com/• Zillow, Opendoor announce multi-year partnership: https://investor.opendoor.com/news-releases/news-release-details/zillow-opendoor-announce-multi-year-partnership• Building product at Stripe: craft, metrics, and customer obsession | Jeff Weinstein (Product lead): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/building-product-at-stripe-jeff-weinstein• Stripe Atlas: https://stripe.com/atlas• Founders podcast: https://www.founderspodcast.com/• Uber will deliver ice cream to you today: https://www.dispatch.com/story/lifestyle/food/2016/07/13/uber-will-deliver-ice-cream/24201840007/• UberKittens: https://www.uber.com/newsroom/uberkittens/• UberPuppies: https://www.uber.com/blog/uberpuppies-want-to-play/• Shoe Dog: A Memoir by the Creator of Nike: https://www.amazon.com/Shoe-Dog-Memoir-Creator-NIKE/dp/1471146723• The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Improbable-Incerto/dp/1400063515• The Design of Everyday Things: https://www.amazon.com/dp/0465050654• Shantaram: https://www.amazon.com/Shantaram-SHANTARAM-Paperback-GregoryDavidRoberts/dp/B00QPVJESC• Full Swing on Netflix: https://www.netflix.com/title/81483353• Formula 1: Drive to Survive on Netflix: https://www.netflix.com/title/80204890• Break Point on Netflix: https://www.netflix.com/title/81569920• Air on Prime Video: https://www.amazon.com/AIR-Matt-Damon/dp/B0B8Q3JMCG• Fi smart dog collar: https://tryfi.com/• Particle: https://particlenews.ai/• Sara Beykpour on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sarabeykpour/• A new-parent gift guide for product managers: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/a-new-parent-gift-guide-for-product• Jeff Holden on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffholden/• Travis Kalanick on X: https://x.com/travisk—Production and marketing by https://penname.co/. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email podcast@lennyrachitsky.com.—Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed. Get full access to Lenny's Newsletter at www.lennysnewsletter.com/subscribe

Today I welcome fellow Canadian Michael Hartley to the show. Michael is the director of InterKnowlogy, mining and energy. And that is a firm that operates at the intersection of risk management, human factors and data science to enhance decision-making. This conversation covers a wide range of fascinating stuff, mostly about how decisions get made during complexity and crises, mostly from Michael's background in energy and mining. However, the insights are applicable to a huge number of other contexts. And we cover the importance of decision making and critical thinking, understanding when decisions get made in organizations, data quality and presenting information, managing crises, AI and much more. Show Notes: Michael on LinkedIn InterKnowlogy Books and Papers "Thinking in Systems: A Primer" by Donella H. Meadows Amazon Link "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Amazon Link "The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of The Learning Organization" by Peter M. Senge Amazon Link Concepts and Tools Goodhart's Law Goodhart's Law Explained Cynefin Framework by Dave Snowden Cynefin Framework Overview Scenario Planning Scenario Planning Overview Additional Resources Deepwater Horizon Incident Wikipedia Article Shell's Scenario Planning Shell's Scenario Planning Page Resilience Engineering Resilience Engineering Association _ _ _ _ Like what you heard? Subscribe to The Decision-Making Studio Podcast Sign up for our Decision Navigators Course Join our Aug 13th Webinar

- SKOR North's Phil Mackey gets the crew prepped for the Twins season opener, shares some more info on the betting controversy surrounding Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani, and why Tom should not be nervous about the Twins this season.- KSTP's Chris Egert shares about the snowfall totals from around the state and what can be expected the rest of the day plus into tomorrow, shares the big Powerball and Mega Millions lottery drawings, and talks about his big segment on ham for tv today.- Bob Sansevere updates the crew on NCAA March Madness, shares the Cinderella story happening for NC State in the big dance, and gets Tom excited for the start of the baseball season. Plus Bob shares about his first viewing of "Guy Ritchie's The Covenant."- Kristyn Burtt talks about Jerry Seinfeld being announced as a billionaire, the hunt for the new James Bond actor to take over from Daniel Craig and why the name Aaron Taylor-Johnson has been floating around. Plus shares her plans for Easter which will deal with a lot of paperwork.Stream the show LIVE on the Tom Barnard Show app M-F from 8-9:30AM or get the show on-demand on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoicesSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

- SKOR North's Phil Mackey gets the crew prepped for the Twins season opener, shares some more info on the betting controversy surrounding Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani, and why Tom should not be nervous about the Twins this season. - KSTP's Chris Egert shares about the snowfall totals from around the state and what can be expected the rest of the day plus into tomorrow, shares the big Powerball and Mega Millions lottery drawings, and talks about his big segment on ham for tv today. - Bob Sansevere updates the crew on NCAA March Madness, shares the Cinderella story happening for NC State in the big dance, and gets Tom excited for the start of the baseball season. Plus Bob shares about his first viewing of "Guy Ritchie's The Covenant." - Kristyn Burtt talks about Jerry Seinfeld being announced as a billionaire, the hunt for the new James Bond actor to take over from Daniel Craig and why the name Aaron Taylor-Johnson has been floating around. Plus shares her plans for Easter which will deal with a lot of paperwork. Stream the show LIVE on the Tom Barnard Show app M-F from 8-9:30AM or get the show on-demand on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nassim Nicholas Taleb popularized a theory in his book "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable," published in 2007. In the context of the theory, a "black swan" refers to an event that is highly improbable, has a major impact, and is often explained in hindsight as if it were predictable.GET AN OCCASIONAL PERSONAL EMAIL FROM ME: www.makeyourdamnbedpodcast.comTUNE IN ON INSTAGRAM FOR COOL CONTENT: www.instagram.com/mydbpodcastOR BE A REAL GEM + TUNE IN ON PATREON: www.patreon.com/MYDBpodcastOR WATCH ON YOUTUBE: www.youtube.com/juliemerica The opinions expressed by Julie Merica and Make Your Damn Bed Podcast are intended for entertainment purposes only. Make Your Damn Bed podcast is not intended or implied to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. Get bonus content on PatreonSupport this show http://supporter.acast.com/make-your-damn-bed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Money solves many problems, but it doesn't solve *all* of them. And in some cases, wealth can actually create some new problems. Here to talk about that dynamic — and how people can get ahead of those issues by proactively managing their wealth — is someone who's helped dozens of families do exactly that over the last couple of decades.   John M. Jennings is president and chief strategist of St. Louis Trust & Family Office, a $15 billion wealth management firm. His book, “The Uncertainty Solution”, is an engaging dive into investing philosophy and best practices as well as an authoritative, accessible guide for anyone who feels inundated with financial news and data.    Listen to the full episode for more on the “unsexy” task of figuring out cash flow, why having large amounts of wealth can come with its own unanticipated problems, John's insights into investment, and a lot more.   Here's a Glimpse of What You'll Learn:    More info about what John's organization does, and what differentiates them from other competitors The power of “ridiculous customization”, plus why John's company starts with the “unsexy” things (like cash flow) before anything else related to investment Why having major wealth isn't always “puppies and butterflies” More about the intricacies of estate (and other types of) tax, and when a family or business owner should seek advice in order to minimize how much they pay in taxes Some of the biggest insights from John's book, “The Uncertainty Solution” — and why it's not actually just an investment book Why John didn't buy Amazon stock — and what that says about the overall stock market What John prioritizes when it comes to his physical and mental health, and why those habits help him perform his best Why John's measure of success in his personal life is related to naptime More about the journey it took for John to finally write his book despite a lot of self-doubt  Several of John's top book recommendations   Resources Mentioned in This Episode:  John's website and blog St. Louis Trust & Family Office website “The Uncertainty Solution: How to Invest with Confidence in the Face of the Unknown” by John M. Jennings “The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing” by Michael J. Mauboussin “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman “Winning the Loser's Game: Timeless Strategies for Successful Investing” by Charles Ellis “Scale: The Universal Laws of Life, Growth, and Death in Organisms, Cities, and Companies” by Geoffrey West  Buy a copy of “Lost at CEO: An Entrepreneur's Guide to Strategy” by Carl J. Cox  40 Strategy Contact 40 Strategy Carl J. Cox on LinkedIn  

The Black SwanThe Black Swan Full Book Introduction Before the discovery of the first black swan, people were convinced that all swans were white. Hence, a “Black Swan” indicates an unexpected and impactful rare event. From the financial crises to the sinking of the Titanic, or the September eleven attacks, “Black Swans” exist in all fields. This book provides an in-depth analysis of the nature and the rules of “Black Swans.” It enables us to understand both how society operates, and how to gain the upper hand in this uncertain world. Author : Nassim Nicholas TalebNassim Nicholas Taleb is a researcher at the New York University Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences. He is the author of several bestselling books, such as ‘Fooled by Randomness', ‘An-tifragile', and ‘Skin in the Game'. As a practical researcher of “uncertainty,” Taleb has written fifty academic papers investigating “uncertainty” and is known as a thinker with “rare courage and broad knowledge.” His thoughts and works have influenced a large population of readers worldwide. He has also helped in making the “Black Swan” become a household concept. Overview | Chapter 1Hi, welcome to Bookey. Today we will unlock the book ‘The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable'. If someone said that tomorrow is always full of unknowns and risks, you may think that they are being a bit alarmist. However, this was true of September the tenth, two thousand and one. Who could have ever predicted that terrorist attacks would happen the very next day? These events stunned the entire world. That morning, terrorists hijacked four passenger airliners. One of the planes crashed on the ground. Two planes crashed into the World Trade Center in New York. The sky was filled with clouds of smoke, and both towers collapsed within two hours. The fourth plane crashed into the Pentagon in Washington and partially damaged the building. Nobody on those four planes survived. About three thousand people were killed, six hundred more than the victims of the attack on Pearl Harbor. It can be said that the September eleventh attacks destroyed the entire World Trade Center and part of the Pentagon. But more importantly, it damaged America's sense of peace and security. What was shocking about the attacks were not only its sudden and disastrous consequences, but also why the Unites States of America, which has the world's most advanced means of communication and intelligence, failed to predict this long-planned plot. Now, you may have an idea about what the term “Black Swan” refers to. It indicates an unexpected and impactful event. It's beyond expectations and brings about immense influence. The September eleven attacks are a typical “Black Swan.” However, if you think that “Black Swans” are limited to national affairs, you are wrong. In fact, “Black Swans” are everywhere. They have an impact on issues ranging from national and social security, to our daily lives. Hence, let's see what the book ‘The Black Swan' has to say about why it's hard to predict a “Black Swan” and how we should cope with the unpredictable future. The author of this book, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, is a researcher at the New York University Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences. He also wrote several bestselling books, such as ‘Fooled by Randomness', ‘Antifragile', and ‘Skin in the Game'. In his early years, he was a businessman and dealt with various financial products in New York and London. Now, he serves as a Distinguished Professor at New York University. ‘The Black Swan' is the epitome of Taleb's thoughts concerning “uncertainty”, and a book full of...

Nassim Nicholas Taleb'in "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" ( 2007 ) kitabının özeti  ⁠İnstagram⁠ ⁠YouTube⁠ ⁠Twitter⁠ İletişim: aghazalbagheri@gmail.com

Oie Bom dia!   Você já ouviu falar na lógica do CISNE NEGRO?   Esse é um conceito proposto por Nassim Nicholas Taleb em seu livro "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable". A ideia central é que eventos altamente improváveis, ou seja, aqueles que estão além da nossa compreensão e previsão, podem ter um impacto significativo em nossas vidas e na sociedade como um todo.   A maioria de nós tende a subestimar a importância dos eventos raros e imprevisíveis, pois nossa compreensão do mundo é limitada pela nossa experiência passada e pelo nosso viés cognitivo.   Nós deveríamos estar preparados para lidar com esses eventos imprevisíveis, adotando uma postura mais cautelosa e flexível diante do desconhecido.   Cada um de nós líderes PRECISA ser mais humildes em relação ao nosso conhecimento, a questionar nossas suposições e a nos preparar para o inesperado.   Na minha #provocaçãododia, trago meu olhar sobre ess a incerteza inerente ao mundo em que vivemos e a NECESSIDADE de estarmos sempre prontos para lidar com o inesperado. Aprender a lidar com a incerteza e a imprevisibilidade é fundamental para navegar em um mundo cada vez mais complexo e em constante mudança. Então eu tenho que saber TUDO SOBRE TUDO? Não, né?   Assiste aí minha opinião sobre isso e comenta aqui...   Quero muito ouvir também a sua opinião e promover uma discussão saudável sobre esse assunto importante. Junte-se a nós para uma reflexão profunda sobre a liderança no ambiente de trabalho.

In this special edition episode, we're revisiting our conversation with Chris Voss – former Lead International Hostage Negotiator for the FBI, current CEO of The Black Swan Group, and the New York Times Best-Selling Author of Never Split The Difference.  After starting out as a beat cop in New York City, Chris moved laterally into hostage negotiations — thanks to his insatiable drive to learn and his insightful understanding of the human condition. We go deep into leveraging emotional intelligence and tactical empathy, why the best negotiators forget rationality, and the secret to gaining the upper hand in any negotiation.  Links & Resources: Episode Show Notes Never Split the Difference: Negotiating As if Your Life Depended on It by Chris Voss The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Talleb Inception (movie) The Emotionally Intelligent Leader by Daniel Goleman Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion by Robert Cialdini Getting to Yes by Roger Fisher and William Ury The Talent Code by Daniel Coyle

How to survive in a world where luck and randomness play a pivotal role.Topics covered include:What are power lawsWhat are the narrative fallacy and hindsight biasWhat are examples of domains where randomness has contributed to successWhat are ways to distinguish investing skill from luckHow sixth-century philosopher Boethius had an accurate view of chanceWhat are ways we can benefit from good luck while protecting ourselves from bad luckFor more information on this episode click here.SponsorsCopperMoney For the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesRedacted messages to and from Elon Musk—Delaware's Court of ChanceryElon Musk's Texts Shatter the Myth of the Tech Genius by Charlie Warzel—The AtlanticTalent Versus Luck: The Role of Randomness In Success and Failure by Alessandro Pluchino, Alessio Emanuele Biondo, and Andrea RapisardaSusan AlexandraWelcome to Susan Alexandra's Dream World by Sophia Herring—Clever, Architectural DigestThe Fashion Set Can't Get Enough of Susan Alexandra's Colorful, Kitschy Designs by Noah Lehava—CoveteurQuantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact by Roberta Sinatra et al.What's in a Surname? The Effects of Surname Initials on Academic Success by Liran Einav and Leeat YarivMiddle names make you look smarter—University of SouthhamptonAdmission to Selective Schools, Alphabetically by Štěpán Jurajda and Daniel MünichIt Pays to Be Herr Kaiser: Germans With Noble-Sounding Surnames More Often Work as Managers Than as Employees by Raphael Silberzahn and Eric Luis UhlmannThe relative-age effect and career success: Evidence from corporate CEOs by Qianqian Du, Huasheng Gao, Maurice D. LeviThe Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas TalebWere Those Great Returns the Result of Skill — or Just Luck? by Julie Segal—Institutional InvestorRelated Episodes323: The Economy Is Not A MachineSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Hangi tuzaklar ve hatalar farklı konular hakkındaki bilgimi ve anlayışımızı hataya götürebilir? Nassim Nicholas Taleb'in "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" ( 2007 ) kitabının özeti Youtube: https://youtu.be/M06Em4AIxvY

The Buzz 1: In his 2007 book “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable”, author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. He calls this the Black Swan theory. The Buzz 2: “If you ever do have to heed a forecast, keep in mind that its accuracy degrades rapidly as you extend it through time.” The Buzz 3: “We see the obvious and visible consequences, not the invisible and less obvious ones. Yet those unseen consequences…generally are more meaningful.” Gone are the days when, as a whole, Planning & Analysis for the office of the CFO and the enterprise could be ‘just OK.' With black swan events becoming the norm, requiring guidance and scenario modeling, FP&A can no longer wait on gathering data from convoluted spreadsheets and uncollaborative business units. Yes, the pressure is on the CFO to deliver highly credible plans and ever better analysis. But how? The answer: Modern planning processes and tools – adopting extended planning and analysis, analytics and visualization, and machine learning – will help you transform your company's Finance function from good to great. We'll ask Jon Essig at SimpleFi Solutions, Chris Ortega at Fresh FP&A, and Floyd Conrad at SAP for their take on The Black Swan vs Transforming Your FP&A from Good to Great!

Very important distinction in words. We get it - Fatman is trying to minimize 'hopium' for people. But he already knows this - SHIB and DOGE already debunked his statement as they had/have significantly more inventory and significantly less use case at the point they hit LUNA Classic's base price. Connect with us: Website: https://www.CryptoTalkRadio.net Twitter: @CTRCryptoRadio Facebook: @ThisIsCTR LinkedIn: @CryptoTalkRadio

In the Reserve Bank of India's latest bulletin, an article titled ‘Capital Flows at Risk: India's Experience' cautioned about an event -- comprising a combination of shocks -- which might lead to portfolio outflows of about $100 billion or Rs 7,80,000 crore. Authored by RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra, along with Harendra Behera and Silu Muduli, the report called for maintaining liquid reserves to deal with the event which is known as black swan. The theory of black swan was first floated by finance professor and former Wall Street trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb in 2001. Taleb went on to write a book on it titled, 'The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable'. So what exactly is black swan event? It is a rare and unpredictable event with potentially has severe consequences. In his book, Taleb says that there are three attributes of the event. The first is that it is an outlier and cannot be predicted. The second is that it has an extreme impact and the third is the human nature to try to concoct explanations once it has happened. It can be characterised by a combination of all adverse shocks experienced in the history coming together, leading to a perfect storm. What are some of the recent examples of black swan events? In hindsight, the global financial crisis could be termed as a black swan event as the sudden collapse of the US housing market led to a severe global economic crisis. The 26/11 terrorist attacks, the burst of dot.com bubble in 1990s are the some other examples of black swan events. In the context of capital flows, the RBI report says that capital outflows, particularly, portfolio flows are driven by global risk aversion and they are sensitive to shifts in risk sentiment globally. So, if there is an adverse event like “Covid-type contraction in real GDP growth” or “global financial crisis type decline in interest rate differentials”, India could see capital outflows to the tune of 3.2% of GDP or approximately $100 billion.

Season 2 Episode 20 | Recorded January 24, 2022 thank you to our supporters this week! Amaka.com On today's episode, Scott and Zach tackle the tough subjects, such as staying sober, dressing up, touching knees, Mormon mentioning, subtle jabs, and more with the very special self-proclaimed cartoonist, MC, CPE presenter, standup comedian, comptroller, podcast host, fry-sauce connoisseur, and master of all thing CPE comedy Greg Kyte. *A little tongue-twisting talk on The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, choirs, and context *On being the son of a wool-monger and grandson of a Boeing financial forecaster, and Greg's angelic childhood demeanor *How Greg made it from middle-school math teacher to CPA by way of a summer job and standup *Resolving Scott's need for attention... without chopsticks *About Greg's work ethic, and integrity and what really drives him – the fear of failure *Living life as an ambivert *The art of cartooning *Greg's history of podcasting *Pricing shaming *Investment strategy turned life plan: 85% security, 15% crapshoots *Barbells, Speedos, and tigers – oh my! *Freedom and Free CPE with Oh My Fraud! (Now with 11 episodes to hear!) *Fry sauce matters – two parts mayo, one part ketchup, catsup, or however you spell it where you live ... Check out Greg's toons: https://www.instagram.com/exposuredrafts/ Listen to Oh My Fraud: https://ohmyfraud.com/ Talk to Greg: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gregkyte/ Get your UT Fry Sauce merch here: https://utfrysauce.com/ A Thrivecast discussion on perfecting niches: https://thriveal.com/resources/podcast-episode/niches-bring-stitches-and-an-interview-with-jason-blumer/ The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable https://amzn.to/3NnMcf6 Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder https://amzn.to/3MfBGoV Shout out to that church with all the words, that choir that got renamed, that place that makes The Dude's cardigan, Pendleton, The Journal of Accountancy, monkey bars, Oprah, Men at Work, The Police, all the children of the ‘80s, Gusto, teleprompters, Oh My Fraud!, Venn diagrams, Gary Larson, Scott Adams, Dilbert, Caleb Newquist, The Far Side, Going Concern, Rubik Yeriazarian and RuBook Creative, EY, Divvy, the law of attraction, Jason Blumer, Thrivecast, Tom Hood, Accounting Today, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Sam's No. 3 --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/sonsofcpas/message

Aydin Senkut is the Founder and Managing Partner of Felicis. An original super angel turned multi-stage investor, he has been named on the Forbes Midas List for the past nine years (2014-2022). Felicis has been an incredible 16-year journey starting with a $4M Fund I back in 2006, their most recent fund in 2021 was $900M. Along the way, Felicis has invested in over 45 unicorns including Adyen, Canva, Shopify, Notion, Opendoor, and Plaid. Prior to starting Felicis, Aydin was a Senior Manager at Google where he spent an incredible 6 years. In Today's Episode with Aydin Senkut: 1.) The Founding of Felicis: How did Aydin transition from a successful angel to the first $41M institutional fund with Felicis? How did Aydin's mindset change moving from investing personal to LP capital? What does Aydin know now that he wishes he had known when he started Fund I? 2.) Fund Mechanics: Building a Portfolio Why does Aydin believe portfolios need to have 40-50 positions to be diversified enough? Given Aydin being multi-stage, how important is ownership on first check for Aydin and Felicis? Does Aydin believe it is possible to really concentrate capital into your best performers? How does Aydin think through outcome scenario planning? What is his biggest takeaway from this? 3.) Aydin Senkut: The Investor What have been the biggest changes in Aydin's style of investing over the last 16 years? What was Aydin's biggest miss? How did it impact his mindset moving forward? What is Aydin's biggest insecurity as an investor today? How has it changed? Where does Aydin still believe he is weak as an investor? What is he doing to combat it? 4.) The Venture Landscape: Why does Aydin believe that despite the pricing, seed is the best risk-adjusted asset class? How does Aydin evaluate where crossover funds will move with the death of many growth rounds? What segment of the market will be hit hardest by the crunch? What worries with this? What would Aydin most like to change about the venture landscape today? Why? Item's Mentioned In Today's Episode with Aydin Senkut Aydin's Favourite Book: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

The Buzz 1: In his 2007 book “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable”, author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. He calls this the Black Swan theory. The Buzz 2: “If you ever do have to heed a forecast, keep in mind that its accuracy degrades rapidly as you extend it through time.” The Buzz 3: “We see the obvious and visible consequences, not the invisible and less obvious ones. Yet those unseen consequences…generally are more meaningful.” Gone are the days when, as a whole, Planning & Analysis for the office of the CFO and the enterprise could be ‘just OK.' With black swan events becoming the norm, requiring guidance and scenario modeling, FP&A can no longer wait on gathering data from convoluted spreadsheets and uncollaborative business units. Yes, the pressure is on the CFO to deliver highly credible plans and ever better analysis. But how? The answer: Modern planning processes and tools – adopting extended planning and analysis, analytics and visualization, and machine learning – will help you transform your company's Finance function from good to great. We'll ask Jon Essig at SimpleFi Solutions, Chris Ortega at Fresh FP&A, and Floyd Conrad at SAP for their take on The Black Swan vs Transforming Your FP&A from Good to Great!

The Buzz 1: In his 2007 book “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable”, author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. He calls this the Black Swan theory. The Buzz 2: “If you ever do have to heed a forecast, keep in mind that its accuracy degrades rapidly as you extend it through time.” The Buzz 3: “We see the obvious and visible consequences, not the invisible and less obvious ones. Yet those unseen consequences…generally are more meaningful.” Gone are the days when, as a whole, Planning & Analysis for the office of the CFO and the enterprise could be ‘just OK.' With black swan events becoming the norm, requiring guidance and scenario modeling, FP&A can no longer wait on gathering data from convoluted spreadsheets and uncollaborative business units. Yes, the pressure is on the CFO to deliver highly credible plans and ever better analysis. But how? The answer: Modern planning processes and tools – adopting extended planning and analysis, analytics and visualization, and machine learning – will help you transform your company's Finance function from good to great. We'll ask Jon Essig at SimpleFi Solutions, Chris Ortega at Fresh FP&A, and Floyd Conrad at SAP for their take on The Black Swan vs Transforming Your FP&A from Good to Great!

FIDDLER ON THE ROOF COMPOSER: Jerry Bock LYRICIST: Sheldon Harnick BOOK: Joseph Stein SOURCE: Sholem Aleichem's short stories Tevye the Dairyman (1894) DIRECTOR: Jerome Robbins CHOREOGRAPHER: Jerome Robbins PRINCIPLE CAST: Maria Karnilova (Golde), Joanna Merlin (Tzeitel), Zero Mostel (Tevye), OPENING DATE: Sep 22, 1964 CLOSING DATE: Jul 02, 1972 PERFORMANCES: 3,242 SYNOPSIS: Tevye, the local milkman, has five daughters that must enter into arranged marriages as dictated by the traditions of his culture. When Tzeitel, his eldest, chooses to make her own match, Tevye's world is turned upside down and traditions become vulnerable. After acclaimed musical successes commissioned by producers, Sheldon Harnick and Jerry Bock set out to write a musical which was of personal, familial interest to them. Based on a series of short stories by Sholem Alecheim, Fiddler on the Roof explores the importance of Jewish traditions to the inhabitants of a small, Russian village. Beth Burrier summarizes the complex identities of Jewish-American theatre artists working on Broadway, many of whom were attacked by the House Un-American Activities Committee or faced other forms of antisemitic discrimination in their lives. Although a liberal wave saw an onslaught of Jewish-American stories on Broadway, Fiddler on the Roof was deemed risky by producers because its characters were Russian villagers, not Americans. Upon opening with a seismic performance by the blacklisted Zero Mostel, and despite a pleased general public, Yiddish writers took issue with the liberal message of the show. Work by director/ choreographer Jerome Robbins posited the piece as a new sort of musical, where the authors took a back seat to the vision of the director. Beth Burrier is head of musical theatre at Manhattanville College in Purchase New York, and a principal conductor and the Associate Artistic Director of the College Light Opera Company in Falmouth, Massachusetts. She holds a Master of Music summa cum laude from Ithaca College, and a Bachelor of Music Education summa cum laude with honors from Otterbein University. Beth has been on the faculty at Baldwin Wallace and Penn State, and has taught Music Theatre History, Music Theory, Acting the Song, Audition Technique, Voice and Piano. National tours include RENT, The Full Monty, and Beehive the Sixties Musical.   SOURCES Fiddler on the Roof by Jerry Bock, Sheldon Harnick, and Joseph Stein, published by Limelight (2004) Fiddler on the Roof, Original Broadway Cast Recording. RCA (1964) Fiddler on the Roof, starring Topol and Neva Small, directed by Norman Jewison. MGM Films (1971) Fiddler: Miracle of Miracles, starring Sheldon Harnick and Lin Manuel Miranda, directed by Max Lewkowicz. Samuel Goldwyn Films (2019) The Making of a Musical: Fiddler on the Roof by Altman, Richard and Mervyn Kaufman. New York: Crown Publishers, 1971.  Wonder of Wonders: A Cultural History of Fiddler on the Roof, by Alisa Solomon, published by Picador (2014) Tradition!: The Highly Improbable, Ultimately Triumphant Broadway-to Hollywood Star of Fiddler on the Roof, the World's Most Beloved Musical by Barbara Isenberg, published by St. Martin's Press (2014) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this week's episode, host Kristin Hayes talks with Matt Shields, a senior offshore wind analyst at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Among other research projects, the lab conducts offshore wind techno-economic analysis, which involves developing cost models, analyzing market and technology trends, and projecting the future costs of offshore wind. Shields is the lead author of a new study that explores the demand for a domestic offshore wind energy supply chain following the Biden administration's March 2021 goal to install 30 gigawatts of offshore wind in the United States by 2030. Shields and Hayes discuss some challenges to achieving the 2030 goal—including constraints on the number of turbine installation vessels and ports—along with the potential employment impacts of building a domestic supply chain for offshore wind, and how best to synchronize the design of turbines, installation vessels, and ports along the supply chain. References and recommendations: “Supply Chain Road Map for Offshore Wind Energy” by Matt Shields, Ruth Marsh, Jeremy Stefek, Frank Oteri, Ross Gould, Noé Rouxel, Katherine Diaz, Javier Molinero, Abigayle Moser, Courtney Malvik, and Sam Tirone; https://www.nrel.gov/wind/offshore-supply-chain-road-map.html “Offshore Wind Market Report: 2021 Edition” by Walter Musial, Paul Spitsen, Philipp Beiter, Patrick Duffy, Melinda Marquis, Abryn Cooperman, Rob Hammond, and Matt Shields; https://www.energy.gov/eere/wind/articles/offshore-wind-market-report-2021-edition-released “Supply Chain Contracting Forecast for U.S. Offshore Wind Power—The Updated and Expanded 2021 Edition” by the Special Initiative on Offshore Wind; https://cpb-us-w2.wpmucdn.com/sites.udel.edu/dist/e/10028/files/2021/10/SIOW-supply-chain-report-2021-update-FINAL-1.pdf “Offshore Wind Insider” podcast; https://www.offshorewindus.org/oswinsider/ “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb; https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/176226/the-black-swan-second-edition-by-nassim-nicholas-taleb/

John Elkington is an advisor on sustainable development and corporate responsibility, an area he's been working in for almost 40 years. He is the author of 20 books on this topic, and he has given a remarkable contribution to shifting capitalism and business towards a more balanced and sustainable path. We talk about his new book called "Green Swans: The Coming Boom in Regenerative Capitalism," we also talk about wicked and super wicked problems, exponentials, why he reads Chinese science fiction books, his visit with past guest Kevin Kelley and what he's both terrified of and excited about in the coming ten to fifteen year.  What is Covered:  - Who or what are ‘green swans' and where the idea came from  - Human struggle with exponentials and the role of technology in systemic change - Wicked and super wicked problems, and what is unique about them in today's world - The issues with discounted cash flow in today's economy  - The role of young generation and why we need intergenerational cooperation to solve existential threats we're facing Key Takeaways and Learnings:  - The green swans are very often market or societal or political shifts. A company or an individual could play into those changing realities, but it's not about individuals as such. - Super wicked problems, such as the climate emergency, make us see our future ahead of us, but we seem to be completely unable as a political species to address the challenge in a sufficient scale and with sufficient urgency.  - Reengaging young people in a multigenerational and intergenerational battle for a systemic change at the right time and in the right way is a major opportunity in the next 10 to 15 years Links and Resources Mentioned in This Episode:  - “Green Swans: The Coming Book in Regenerative Capitalism” by John Elkington https://www.amazon.com/Green-Swans-Coming-Regenerative-Capitalism-ebook/dp/B086BJF1FQ/  - Volans Ventures https://volans.com/  - Connect with John Elkington by email, LinkedIn or Twitter - “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X/  - UN Sustainable Development Goals https://sdgs.un.org/goals  - “Exponential: How to Bridge the Gap Between Technology and Society” by Azeem Azhar https://www.amazon.com/Exponential-Bridge-Between-Technology-Society/dp/B094DK3NG7/   - “New Rules for the New Economy: 10 Radical Strategies for a Connected World” by Kevin Kelly https://www.amazon.com/New-Rules-Economy-Strategies-Connected/dp/014028060X/  - “Out of Control: The New Biology of Machines, Social Systems and the Economic World” by Kevin Kelly https://www.amazon.com/Out-Control-Biology-Machines-Economic/dp/0201483408/   - “Ministry for the Future: A Novel” by Kim Stanley Robinson https://www.amazon.com/Ministry-Future-Kim-Stanley-Robinson/dp/0316300144/  - “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions” by Thomas S. Kuhn https://www.amazon.com/Structure-Scientific-Revolutions-Thomas-Kuhn/dp/0226458083  - “Regeneration: Ending the Climate Crisis in One Generation” by Paul Hawken https://www.amazon.com/Regeneration-Ending-Climate-Crisis-Generation/dp/0143136976/   - “Drawdown: The Most Comprehensive Plan Ever Proposed to Reverse Global Warming” by Paul Hawken https://www.amazon.com/Drawdown-Comprehensive-Proposed-Reverse-Warming/dp/0143130447/  - RethinkX https://www.rethinkx.com/  - “The Wandering Earth” by Cixin Liu https://www.amazon.com/Wandering-Earth-Cixin-Liu/dp/1250796830   - “The Postman” by David Brin https://www.amazon.com/Postman-David-Brin/dp/B08GLSY8R6/  - “Dune” by Frank Herbert https://www.amazon.com/Frank-Herberts-Dune-6-Book-Boxed/dp/0593201884/   - Jim Mellon: Moo's Law and Investing in Cellular Agriculture https://outsidelens.com/jim-mellon-moos-law-and-investing-in-cellular-agriculture/  - Kevin Kelly: The Formula for the next 10,000 Startups, Failing Forward and Becoming a Teaching Organisation https://outsidelens.com/kevin-kelly-the-formula-for-the-next-10000-startups-failing-forward-and-becoming-a-teaching-organisation/   Connect with Mark Bidwell: - LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/markbidwell/  - Twitter https://twitter.com/markehb - OutsideLens https://www.outsidelens.com 

البجعة السوداء: تداعيات غير المتوقع للغاية هو كتاب صدر عام 2007 لنسيم نيكولاس طالب. يركز الكتاب على التأثير الشديد للأحداث الشاذة النادرة والتي لا يمكن التنبؤ بها، وما يسميه طالب البجع الأسود، والميل البشري لإيجاد تفسيرات مبسطة لهذه الأحداث بالاعتماد على دراسة الماضي. اعداد وتقديم عمر السعدي مراجعة لغوية ربيع الشريطي The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Review in english https://www.oksaadi.com/podcast/

Today we are joined by Daniele Bolelli. Daniele is an Italian writer, university professor, martial artist, and podcaster based in Southern California. He is the author of several books on philosophy, and martial arts, including On the Warrior's Path. Known for his writing since the 1990s in Italy and the early 2000s in the United States, Bolelli rose to greater public prominence in the 2010s, beginning with his appearances on popular podcasts such as The Joe Rogan Experience. He went on to create his own podcasts, and has hosted The Drunken Taoist since 2012 and History on Fire since 2015.Bolelli holds M.As in American Indian Studies and history from UCLA and California State University, Long Beach, and did postdoctoral research in history at Cardiff University. As a professor, he has taught a wide variety of courses in the arts, humanities, and social sciences on topics including Native American history and culture, Taoist philosophy, and Ancient Rome. Currently, he teaches at California State University at Long Beach and Santa Monica College. You can find more about Daniele on Official Website, Twitter and Instagram. Show Notes:Daniele Bolelli | Official WebsiteHistory on Fire Podcast | Official WebsiteThe Drunken Taoist Podcast | Official WebsiteFriedrich Nietzsche (1844—1900) | Internet Encyclopedia of PhiolosophyCivilized to Death, The Price of Progress by Christopher Ryan | Simon & SchusterSex at Dawn: The Prehistoric Origins of Modern Sexuality by Christopher Ryan | Goodreads‘The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable' by Nassim Nicholas Taleb | The New York TimesA Long Walk to Freedom: 1918-1962: Early Years, 1918-1962 v. 1 by Nelson Mandela | GoodreadsHardcore History Podcast | Dan Carlin Official WebsitePreaching conservation: Theodore Roosevelt and the rhetoric of civil religion by Leroy Dorsey | Texas A&M University LibrariesWhat Has Posterity Ever Done for Us? | Quote Investigator

Subscribe to the podcast!  https://podfollow.com/everythingeverywhere/ In 1987, a German teenager and novice pilot named Mathias Rust set out on a two-week flight where he visited several countries in Europe.  What was remarkable about the flight wasn't the age of the pilot or the distance he traveled. The reason people still remember it was where he ended up.  Learn more about The Highly Improbable Flight of Mathias Rust and what happened in its aftermath, on this episode of Everything Everywhere Daily. -------------------------------- Associate Producers: Peter Bennett & Thor Thomsen   Become a supporter on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/everythingeverywhere   Discord Server: https://discord.gg/UkRUJFh   Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/everythingeverywhere/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/everywheretrip Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/EEDailyPodcast/ Website: https://everything-everywhere.com/everything-everywhere-daily-podcast/

Subscribe to the podcast!  https://podfollow.com/everythingeverywhere/ In 1987, a German teenager and novice pilot named Mathias Rust set out on a two-week flight where he visited several countries in Europe.  What was remarkable about the flight wasn't the age of the pilot or the distance he traveled. The reason people still remember it was where he ended up.  Learn more about The Highly Improbable Flight of Mathias Rust and what happened in its aftermath, on this episode of Everything Everywhere Daily. -------------------------------- Associate Producers: Peter Bennett & Thor Thomsen   Become a supporter on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/everythingeverywhere   Discord Server: https://discord.gg/UkRUJFh   Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/everythingeverywhere/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/everywheretrip Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/EEDailyPodcast/ Website: https://everything-everywhere.com/everything-everywhere-daily-podcast/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

I got to know this week's guest over LinkedIn and it was a blast to have him on the show. Walid Khoury is a water strategist, investor, and influencer and has such a wealth of knowledge to share with the water treatment industry.  Walid has 20 years of industry experience having worked for GE, Nalco, and Danaher. Over the years, Walid built and led diverse and inclusive water teams, selling technical solutions, developing strategies for direct and indirect sales channels, re-allocating resources, and driving sustainable and profitable growth.  In 2020, Walid founded Desalytics, a company that offers a diverse portfolio of water testing and water treatment consumables in Sub-Saharan Africa. Desalytics helps municipal and industrial customers produce reliable water, optimize processes, maximize returns at a competitive cost through expertise, technologies, and local footprint. For this, Walid is partnering with, coaching, and mentoring young African entrepreneurs to grow Desalytics' presence across the African continent and be close to customers.   Desalytics was established in 2020 to help municipal and industrial customers produce reliable water, optimize processes, maximize returns at a competitive cost through expertise, technologies, and local footprint. Desalytics' innovative business model relies on an impact investing approach where the company partners with young African entrepreneurs, and helps them start or scale their businesses, through working capital injection, mentoring programs, and global supplier relationships. Walid is an active LinkedIn thought leader, inspiring engaging and insightful discussions with his 26,000 industry followers. He holds a bachelor's degree in water and environment, a master's degree in water sciences, and lastly a master's degree in management from Harvard University.     Bottom line: Walid Khoury is going to inspire you to think about water treatment on a bigger and more global level. Your roadside friend, as you travel from client to client.  -Trace    Timestamps:  2021: the year that water treaters around the world came together to learn and grow [0:30] James' Challenge: “Make time for your family, friends, and you.” [7:17] Introducing water strategist, investor, and influencer Walid Khoury [9:10] Desalytics in Africa [15:57] Attending WEFTEC 2021 [18:15] Walid's water treatment career journey  [20:47] The value of coaching [27:30] The importance of diversity in the workplace [32:00] Continuous improvement [39:00] Lightning round questions [42:45]   Quotes: “Optimize your water footprint.” - Walid Khoury “It's not a straightforward job; it is interesting and exciting because you are trying to solve tough challenges. If it wasn't a tough challenge they wouldn't need us.” - Walid Khoury “Find women engineers and help them grow in their careers and retain them.” - Walid Khoury “Don't get stuck, there is always a constant challenge. Keep developing yourself.” - Walid Khoury  “One of the best ways to learn is to teach.” - Walid Khoury “If you are bored at your job, you are not learning. It's time to move on to the next one.” - Walid Khoury “Africa is a similar market to other places.” - Walid Khoury “I'm passionate about water.” - Walid Khoury   Connect with Walid Khoury: Phone: +971 56 5362147  Email: walid.khoury@gmail.com Vlog: walidkhoury.com   LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/walidkhoury   Links Mentioned: The Rising Tide Mastermind Submit a Show Idea AWT (Association of Water Technologies)   Books Mentioned: What Got You Here Won't Get You There: How Successful People Become Even More Successful by Marshall Goldsmith and Mark Reiter  Hot Seat: What I Learned Leading a Great American Company by Jeff Immelt  Africa's Business Revolution: How to Succeed in the World's Next Big Growth Market by Acha Leke The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb   

Guest: Jared Atkinson, Adversary Detection Technical Director at SpecterOps Topics: What are bad/good/great detections? Is this all about the Bianco's pyramid? Is high good and low bad? How should we judge the quality of detections? Can there be a quality framework? Is that judgment going to be site specific? What should we do to build more good directions? Is this all about reducing false positives? Can we really measure false negatives? How can we approach this? How can we test for detection goodness in the real world? What are the methods that work? It can't be just about paper ATT&CK coverage, right? What are your top 3 tips for improving the detection practice at an organization? Resources: “The Pyramid of Pain” post by David Bianco “On Threat Detection Uncertainty” “Detection Coverage and Detection-in-Depth”  “Detection in Depth” by SpecterOps “Philosophy of Science: Rationality Without Foundations" by Karl Popper (yes, really) Red Canary “2021 Threat Detection Report”  "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb John Piaget's theory of cognitive development

Ryan walks through Taleb's discussion of the frailty of our knowledge, how a Dr. Who episode relates to our methods of inference, and how not to be a sucker for the Black Swan. Read the blog: https://rtayers.wixsite.com/sanctifyingmyth/post/the-black-swan-impact-of-the-highly-improbable Join the conversation: https://www.facebook.com/groups/321938265648106 --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/the-life-given/message

Find out how he uncovers the untold stories and troubled lives of Bollywood celebrities like Rajesh Khanna, Rekha, Sanjay Dutt and Guru Dutt in his biographies. Yasser breaks down his research process - from approaching the celeb for interviews to going through old articles and talking to people who knew them well. He shares some interesting anecdotes about Rajesh Khanna and Rekha, and how the media only focused on certain parts of their lives. He also reveals how his interactions with Guru Dutt's sister helped him survive the pandemic!Tara loves learning more about the previous Bollywood era. Michelle loves how he delves into the lives of Bollywood celebs like we delve into the lives of authors! How did Yasser become a Bollywood biographer? How does he decide which celebs to research next? And what are his tips for young and aspiring biographers? Tune in to find out! Book Recommendations:The Kapoors: The First Family of Indian Cinema by Madhu JainParveen Babi: A Life by Karishma UpadhyayThe Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas TalebYasser Usman is an award-winning TV journalist and the author of four bestselling film biographies: Rajesh Khanna: The Untold Story of India's First Superstar; Rekha: The Untold Story and Sanjay Dutt. His recent book is the critically acclaimed - Guru Dutt - An Unfinished Story. He has been a recipient of the prestigious Ramnath Goenka Award for excellence in journalism, Indian Telly Award, Red Ink award among many others.Find the book here: https://www.amazon.in/Guru-Dutt-Unfinished-Yasser-Usman/dp/9386797887 'Books and Beyond with Bound' is the podcast where Tara Khandelwal and Michelle D'costa of Bound talk to some of the best writers in India and find out what makes them tick. Now trending in 9 countries! Read more: https://boundindia.com/books-and-beyond-podcast/ Create your own podcast with our 2 week masterclass! Details available here: https://boundindia.com/events/create-your-own-podcast-an-interactive-masterclass/Check out our pathbreaking publishing podcast, ‘The Book People': https://boundindia.com/the-book-people-podcast/ Find us @boundindia on Instagram, Twitter and Facebook.We've joined #PodForChange to raise donations for Covid relief. Donate here: www.auwa.in/podforchange

Welcome to another episode of the Mads Singers Management Podcast. Today, Pablo Gonzalez joins us.Pablo is the host of the Chief Executive Connector Podcast, an expert and specialist in networking, and a good friend of mine. Pablo and I sat down together to discuss how many business owners and managers don't utilize networking a lot which causes them to miss out on meeting incredible people. Today, Pablo and I will pave the way for business owners and managers to learn how to use networking to their advantage and make the right connections for their business or companies to flourish. While entrepreneurship is hard, it can become easier along the way when you have the right people who share the same energy and vision as you. It's not something where you can do certain things and wake up as a millionaire or billionaire (now that would be the dream!) because even if you have a plan in place, things don't always go their way which can distract you from your goals if you get sidetracked or fail.As we talked further, Pablo and I discussed some strategies on networking and how business owners can leverage. One of the essential aspects we discussed is the importance of living in the present - meaning that one should show interest when showing up in an event or meeting people; put your phone in silent or set it to Do Not Disturb and enjoy the moment. Then, go around and talk to people! Another thing Pablo shared is, although meeting new people may seem daunting at first, especially if you are new to a particular place or country, it can be beneficial for you later on because that person can change your life. That person can call you up later on and still remember that you made them feel valued.Key Learning Points:1. Pablo shares that the best way to build relationships and networks is by adding value and being genuine to the people you meet. - 4:242. Pablo shares his secret when it comes to connecting with people. - 6:003. Pablo then adds that people will remember how you made them feel. - 9:054. Mads shares his tactic of approaching people in a crowded venue: Approach the person who is always looking at their phone. - 16:215. Mads shares that he keeps his phone on silent because he believes in living at present. - 17:356. Pablo says that it's essential to ask questions whenever you're having conversations with people. This gives you ammunition whenever you meet and talk to another person in that same field or career. This also allows you to know what motivates them. - 27:007. Pablo shares that the best way to recruit someone is when you hear them talk about something else or care about something else other than themselves. - 32:048. Pablo says that the most influential people in your town are usually board members of many non-profit organizations, which Pablo cheekily adds, can be used as a backdoor for influence, which allows you to have a direct line to them for events such as fundraisings or donation drives. - 32:279. Mads says that the advice you give should also be the advice that you are taking or following. - 36:2410. Pablo says that one right introduction can forever change your life but you need to be open to it. - 41:05Resources Mentioned:The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas TalebConnect with Pablo:The Chief Connector PodcastEmailLinkedInWebsiteFacebookInstagram

Defining Grey Swan events such as the Covid-19 pandemic. [2:11]How cognitive biases influence the ways businesses view research and data. [6:48]The impact of Grey Swan events and crises on a company's financial performance. [8:38]Five key focus areas that determine whether a business will weather a Grey Swan event or not. [10:33]The critical role of organizational resilience during Grey Swan events. [13:05]The most important question on this podcast. [19:50]Additional Resources:Aon's websiteRespecting the Grey Swan compiled by Pentland AnalyticsMentioned on the episode:2007 book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Narssim Nicholas Taleb2015 TED Talk “The next outbreak? We're not ready” by Bill GatesTweetables:“The vast majority of these scenarios are Grey Swan events. The companies knew they could potentially occur, they just weren't prepared for them” — Jason Disborough“If you've had a major crisis and you don't get it right, the impact that can have on your organization and shareholder value can be immense.” — Jason Disborough“The way to build organizational resilience through these Grey Swan scenarios is with practice.” — Jason Disborough“There is a future and it's potentially bright if we work our way through this in the most responsible and positive way.” — Jason Disborough

Rivals Commentary. One of the greatest friendships in Star Trek is that of Miles O’Brien and Julian Bashir. And it really started on a racquetball court. Space racquetball, of course. In this episode of The Orb, hosts C Bryan Jones and Matthew Rushing get together for a casual discussion about the second-season episode “Rivals” and the genesis of the bromance between Miles and Jules, as well as an attempt to out-con Quark. Hosts C Bryan Jones and Matthew Rushing Production C Bryan Jones (Editor and Producer) Matthew Rushing (Executive Producer) Norman C. Lao (Associate Producer)

Rivals Commentary. One of the greatest friendships in Star Trek is that of Miles O'Brien and Julian Bashir. And it really started on a racquetball court. Space racquetball, of course. In this episode of The Orb, hosts C Bryan Jones and Matthew Rushing get together for a casual discussion about the second-season episode “Rivals” and the genesis of the bromance between Miles and Jules, as well as an attempt to out-con Quark. Hosts C Bryan Jones and Matthew Rushing Production C Bryan Jones (Editor and Producer) Matthew Rushing (Executive Producer) Norman C. Lao (Associate Producer)

Sestdienas „Atsperes” viesvadītājs un viesis – LU Filozofijas un socioloģijas institūta pētnieks, pavisam nesen vēl Latvijas Televīzijas satura redaktors Andris Saulītis. Saruna ar Lieni Jakovļevu risinās par balvas „Kilograms kultūras” nozīmi un vietu kultūrainā,  Andra Saulīša pētījumu tēmām, tostarp par neseno kopā ar kolēģiem veikto pētījumu ”Starpkultūru stereotipi un aizspriedumi Latvijā”, arī par televīzijas skatīšanās ieradumu maiņu un paša muzikālās izglītības izmantošanu, kartīšu sistēmas redaktora darbu veicot. Neklātienē  ieskanas arī LNB vadošā pētnieka Gustava Strengas atziņas par lasīšanu, tās izpratni mūsdienās un digitālo nogurumu. Andra Saulīša ieteicamās literatūras saraksts, ko šobrīd izlasīt: Kāpēc pandēmijas ir un būs cilvēces dzīves sastāvdaļa un kā ar tām sadzīvot: Nicholas A. Christakis "Apollo’s Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of Coronavirus on the Way We Live" (2020; Little, Brown Spark) Kāpēc nevajag paļauties uz iepriekšējo pieredzi un vienmēr jābūt gatavam augsti neiespējamajam: Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (2010; 2nd ed. edition. New York: Random House Trade Paperbacks) Kāpēc empātija noved līdz absurdiem un amorāliem lēmumiem politiķus, radus, draugus un mūs pašus: Paul Bloom. Against Empathy: The Case for Rational Compassion. ( 2016; Ecco) Kāpēc tehnoloģijas nepadara darbu vieglāku, bet gan bezjēdzīgāku, bet mūs pašus - nelaimīgākus, un kā to mainīt: David Graeber "Bullshit Jobs" (2019; Simon & Schuster) Kāpēc mūsdienās tik grūti strādāt 40 stundas nedēļā un kāpēc citi to spēj: Cal Newport "Deep Work: Rules for Focused Success in a Distracted World" (2016; Grand Central Publishing) Divi darbi par divām organizācijām, kuras mūsdienās ir celmlauži organizāciju pārvaldībā - un ko no tām mācīties Latvijas uzņēmumiem. valsts iestādēm un ikvienam vadītājam: Colin Bryar & Bill Carr "Working Backwards: Insights, Stories, and Secrets from Inside Amazon" (2021; St. Martin’s Press) Reed Hastings & Erin Meyer "No Rules Rules: Netflix and the Culture of Reinvention" (2020; Random House)  

Today's guest, Alex Iglecia, describes himself as someone who "guides beautiful beings who are here to create something good, speak truth, lead, teach and transform as they walk their own path and trust their epic life no matter what anyone else is doing."Having been a high achiever, Alex experienced intense breakdowns in nearly every aspect of life that helped get him aligned and authentic: body, marriage, finances, soul & spirit. Well before midlife crisis! A former NASA engineer and Ninja-Yogi turned Body-Mind Alchemist, Alex has a Masters in Conscious Evolution and lives deeply for the adventure of being. He discovered that it doesn't always matter what you do or what you know until you are willing to allow yourself the joy and love you are here to share. This is about embracing the mystery, value and authenticity of your unique embodiment.In his work and service, Alex developed Being EPIC as an approach and framework for healing and coaching that accelerates connection to what matters the most. When this shift and synthesis truly begins, people become uniquely free to see their contribution and do the inner and outer work to build a satisfying life of joy, wholeness, and divine play. On today’s fascinating episode, Alex and Dr. Fred explore:What it means to be "a finite supply to an infinite demand"The challenge of “being you”The "network effect" that drives bitcoin's valueMeaning behind the suggestion that "what you appreciate appreciates"What is alchemy?The goodness and gift of "being a mistake"Identifying the fundamental "plot" of one's hero's journeysWhy Alex says, “Your message is medicine, but it's for you first.”The implication that every animal has enough brain to tan its own hideThe masculine vs. feminine hero's journeyWhat would life look like if we weren't terrified of death? Episode Length: 00:57:34 ALEX IGLECIA’S RESOURCESWebsite > http://www.alexiglecia.com/Twitter > https://twitter.com/alexigleciaBook > https://www.amazon.com/Three-Little-Pigs-Go-Yoga-ebook/dp/B07Z45LTM2 ALSO MENTIONED ON TODAY’S SHOW > “The Rime of the Ancient Mariner” (poem) > https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/43997/the-rime-of-the-ancient-mariner-text-of-1834Angel Heart (film) > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angel_Heart"A Divine Invitation" (poem) by Hafiz >https://thepoetryplace.wordpress.com/2017/03/28/a-divine-invitation-by-hafiz/The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb >https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381XBarbell Strategy > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbell_strategy WELCOME TO HUMANITY RESOURCESPodcast Website >  http://www.welcometohumanity.net/podcastPURCHASE DR. FRED’S BOOK (paperback or Kindle) > Creative 8: Healing Through Creativity & Self-Expression by Dr. Fred Moss http://www.amazon.com/Creative-Healing-Through-Creativity-Self-Expression/dp/B088N7YVMG FEEDBACK  > http://www.welcometohumanity.net/contact

In this video I will talk about The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. This book is about the random and rare events with extreme effects. The book argues that these events have an increasingly bigger effect on our lives, and currently we don't take them into account when we make predictions about the future. Twitter: https://twitter.com/AttilaonthWorld YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCADpTO2CJBS7HNudJu9-nvg

Featured image is of our friend Mike enjoying the view from Cloud's Rest in Yosemite during our 2019 Yosemite Retreat. We're currently accepting applications for our 2021 retreat. Listen and explore:Alasdair gets shingles in the truck camperWhat 2020 ended up looking like for Alasdair and Julie-RoxaneBeing robust vs. being antifragileThe Hero's stance toward the unknown and why it's worth studyingThe two faces of the unknown and how our attitude toward what we don't influences how we experience itWhat's your training ground? Finding arenas where you can meet your edge and practice with the unknownThe role of elders in helping us face the unknownWhat the Oracle of Delphi's message "Know Thyself" means to usMentioned on this episode:FAR OUT #8 ~ Doing a Yearly ReviewFAR OUT #36 ~ Embarking on the Hero's JourneyFAR OUT #37 ~ Returning from the Hero's JourneyFooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim TalebThe Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim TalebAntifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder by Nassim TalebThe Wave: In Pursuit of the Rogues, Freaks and Giants of the Ocean by Susan CaseyMaps of Meaning: The Architecture of Belief  by Jordan B. PetersonAnimas Valley Institute (Bill Plotkin's organization around vision fasts and soulwork)Connect with us:Website: www.thefarout.life Email us at info@thefarout.lifeOn Instagram: @thefaroutcoupleJulie-Roxane on Instagram: @julieroxaneAlasdair @ www.alasdairplambeck.comSupport this podcast:Become a patron at: https://www.patreon.com/thefaroutcoupleLeave a review on iTunes!Share this episode with a friend! :DCredits:Intro music: "Complicate ya" by Otis McDonaldOutro music: "Running with wise fools" written & performed by Krackatoa (www.krackatoa.com)

James Allworth is a man of many talents. He is co-author of How Will You Measure Your Life w/ Clay Christensen & Karen Dillon, co-host of the Exponent Podcast 7 Head of Innovation at Cloudfare. James shares life & work lessons from the Late Prof Clay Christensen. We discuss work culture & work/life balance. We also discuss Big Tech and market power. We also discuss Tik Tok and Hauwei and privacy concerns. You don’t want to miss this engaging episode that covers a range of topics. Show Notes:  Podcasts:  James likes podcasts that play electronic dance.  He says these are great to work out to.  Books: The Innovators Dilemma by Clay Christensen; Guns, Germs & Steel: The Fate of Human Societies by Jared Diamond; The Black Swan:  The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb    

If you want to write a book, don’t ask, “How much money does the average book make?” In this context, “average” is meaningless. You’re in the world of Black Swans. The Black Swan is a book by Nicholas Nassim Taleb, and I have found the ideas in it critical to navigating my career as an author. Here – in my own words – is my summary of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. These are the ideas I think about when I’m considering writing a new book.   Where does the term “Black Swan” come from? Imagine a world where you’ve only ever seen white swans. If someone asked you whether or not black swans existed, you might say no. You’ve seen thousands of swans, and they’ve all been white. Therefore, black swans don’t exist. You’ve mistaken an absence of evidence for evidence of absence. Just because you haven’t seen evidence of black swans, does not prove they don’t exist. What is a Black Swan? A positive Black Swan: In 2010, I wrote a blog post. That blog post prompted a publisher to reach out to me. I got a book deal. A negative Black Swan: A Las Vegas casino had an insurance policy. They protected against every cheating scenario they could imagine. They had the most popular show in Vegas, where magicians worked with giant live tigers. So they protected against the scenario of a tiger jumping into the audience. But they never imagined the tiger would maim one of the performers – Roy of Siegfried and Roy. Siegfried and Roy lost their careers. The casino lost $100 million. Both of these incidents are Black Swans: Black Swans are outliers: They’re not what we expect. Nothing in the past predicts a Black Swan. Black Swans have extreme impact: The impact could be positive, such as my book deal, or negative, such as the tiger attack, or the terrorist attacks of 9/11. We backwards-rationalize Black Swans: After a Black Swan happens, it seems obvious. We look back and come up with explanations for how it happened. This gives us the illusion that Black Swans are explainable and predictable. Note: COVID-19 is not a Black Swan. As Taleb has explained, global pandemics happen regularly. They’re uncommon, but they’re inevitable, and we know that. The Black Swan Turkey Imagine you’re a Turkey. Every day, humans come and feed you. You think humans are pretty good and nice. Each day you get new information to confirm this belief. A graph of your opinion of humans might look like this:     Notice the sharp drop-off at the end. That’s the day before Thanksgiving. Things seemed good, until they weren’t. History does not always predict the future. Events come along that shatter all assumptions we’ve made based upon past information. Mediocristan vs. Extremistan Black Swans happen in a place Taleb calls “Extremistan.” Extremistan is the opposite of “Mediocristan.” There’s a joke I like, “Bill Gates walks into a bar. On average, everyone there is a millionaire.” We’re attracted to the “average” and the predictable. But oftentimes the concept of “average” is misleading. Some things happen in Mediocristan and are predictable. The “average” is meaningful in Mediocristan. Other things happen in Extremistan and are unpredictable and extreme. The “average” is meaningless in Extremistan. Mediocristan is about “the collective, the routine, the obvious, and the predicted.” Mediocristan is about risk spread out amongst many, to avoid surprises. An hourly-wage job at Starbucks is possible only in Mediocristan. Extremistan is about “the singular, the accidental, the unseen and the unpredicted.” It’s where the Black Swans happen: random events you never expected, caused by forces you’ll never understand. Such as I experienced suddenly getting a book deal or working with a company that sold to Google. Mediocristan is about variables that fall within a predictable range. In the history of humanity, there’s never been a man 100 feet tall, or a woman 2,000 years old. Nobody has even come close to these extremes. Height and life expectancy follow a bell curve.   A bell curve. (Source: D Wells, Wikimedia Commons)   Distribution of height. (Source: Our World in Data)[/caption]     Extremistan is about variables that scale indefinitely. There’s no known limit to how rich a person can be. The “average” net worth of a U.S. family is about $700,000. But to be richer than half of all Americans you need only $100,000. Still, Jeff Bezos has more than $100,000,000,000.   Wealth distribution, by percentile, in the U.S. Jeff Bezos is 10x as wealthy as the highest point in this chart. (Wikipedia)[/caption] Why are Black Swans important? Understanding Black Swans can prepare you for the unexpected. If you learn about the impact that unexpected and extreme events can have, you can avoid foolish choices that expose you to negative Black Swans. Exposing yourself to Black Swans can make you successful. As we’ll talk about later, when you behave as if you’re in Mediocristan, you miss out on the positive Black Swans you’d find Extremistan. Businesses that thrive on Black Swans include venture capital, scientific research, and publishing. (Note: Another reason Black Swans are important is – as I talked about in Mind Management, Not Time Management – if it’s predictable, it can be automated. Your edge as a human is not in Mediocristan where the robots are taking over. It’s in Extremistan – in doing something nobody could expect.) Black Swan barrier: Platonicity One way we blind ourselves from Black Swans is through what Taleb calls “Platonicity.” Named after the philosopher, Plato, “Platonicity” is our desire to define things, and to pay more attention to things that have been defined. We create names for objects, we create terms (yes, such as “Platonicity”), and we invent nationalities. Because we’re so focused on things we define, we miss all the messier stuff that also matters. Taleb describes it as “[mistaking] the map for the territory.” (I once wrote about a similar concept, and called it Stuff and Things.) It’s helpful to categorize things, but it becomes a problem when we see a category as definitive, and don’t see the fuzzy boundaries between categories or revise them when we see new information that doesn’t fit how we categorize things. We’ve seen this in the gendered bathroom debate. We broke gender down into two categories. Based on that we made two bathrooms. But we’re realizing it’s not so simple. To be Platonic is to be top-down, formulaic, and close-minded. To be a-Platonic is to be bottom-up, open-minded, skeptical, and empirical. The Platonification of breast milk Doctors in the 1960s replicated breast milk in a laboratory, by replicating the components they could see in the milk (the things they had “Platonified”). It seemed to make no practical sense for women to go through the inconvenience of breast feeding when you could just use bottles and lab-made formula. There was an absence of evidence of what the benefits of breast milk were, and that was taken as evidence of absence of benefits. We didn’t know the full benefits of breast milk, but we assumed the components we could see were the only important parts. It turned out children who were not breast fed were later at an increased risk of some cancers. If the mothers themselves had breast fed, they would have had a reduced risk of breast cancer. Black Swan barrier: The Triplet of Opacity Another way we blind ourselves from Black Swans is through what Taleb calls “The Triplet of Opacity.” Those are: The Illusion of understanding. We think we understand what’s going on, but the world is more complicated and random than we know. The retrospective distortion. We assess things after the fact, so we backwards rationalize and come up with reasons why things happened. The overvaluation of information. We place too much emphasis on facts – the things we can “Platonify” – which blinds us from stuff that isn’t so easy to Platonify. How to make Black Swans happen? Since Platonification blinds us to Black Swans, and we suffer from the illusion of understanding and the retrospective distortion, it may seem silly to try to make Black Swans happen. You can’t engineer a Black Swan, but you can create the conditions for positive Black Swans to happen, as I talked about on episode 146. Tinker Top-down planning gives us the illusion of control, and keeps us in Mediocristan. Instead, tinker as much as possible, and learn to recognize opportunities when they present themselves. Taleb says the reason free markets work is not because they give rewards or drive incentives. Rather, free markets work because they let people get lucky through trial and error. (Then we explain away the brilliant things we did to arrive at this wonderful discovery.) Many discoveries come from searching for what you know, and finding what you didn’t expect. Europeans first learned of the American continent while searching for a route to India. I got my first book deal when I was trying to get votes for my speech proposal for a conference. Be patient Negative Black Swans happen suddenly, but positive Black Swans happen slowly. “It is much easier and much faster to destroy than to build.” Black Swan discoveries take time to have an impact. The computer, the internet, and the laser all had a huge impacts, but were underappreciated after initial discovery. Charles H. Townes was teased by his colleagues for inventing the laser, because they thought it was useless. It turned out to be important to eyesight correction, surgery, and data storage and retrieval. Denarrate The triplet of opacity feeds into the “narrative fallacy.” We’re wired to come up with stories of why things happen, but Black Swans happen for unknown reasons. Taleb realized that as a stock trader, there was no way for him to get an informational edge. He realized any piece of news that came out would quickly be worked into the market price of any security. So, he stopped reading the news. He recognized that reading the news as a stock trader would just support the narrative fallacy. Taleb describes a study where sports bookmakers were given ten variables to predict horse races. When they were later given double the information, these bookmakers were no more accurate in their predictions – yet they were much more confident. So Taleb decided that by reading the news he wouldn’t get an edge and he would become overconfident. The Barbell Strategy The main method Taleb recommends for protecting against negative Black Swans while exposing oneself to positive Black Swans is what he calls the Barbell Strategy.   Think of a barbell, with weights on either side. On one side of the barbell is your sure bets – things where you have little chance of losing. On the other side of the barbell is your wildcards – things with unlimited upside. The Barbell Strategy in investing (Note: I’m not a finance expert and nothing I’m about to say is investment advice.) In investing, the sure bets would be treasury bills, cash, and gold. Obviously Black Swans could come along and make these bets not so sure bets, but they’re as sure as you can get. The wildcards would be highly-leveraged option trading, angel investments, or cryptocurrency. You have a decent chance of losing your money, but there’s almost no limit to how much you can gain. In an investing context, Taleb recommends putting 85–90% of your assets into the safe investments, and the remaining 10–15% in the speculative investments. What you’re avoiding is the stuff in the middle. People think index funds are safe because they historically gain about 7% a year, but the entire stock market has lost up to 30% of its value very quickly. Since we’re living in an increasingly complex world, there’s no telling what kind of Black Swan could come in the future and cause an even bigger drop. The Barbell Strategy in creative work I hadn’t realized before reading The Black Swan that I had used the Barbell Strategy to build my creative career. When I was first starting out, I made sure to get just enough freelance work to pay my bills. I also spent a portion of my time building passive income streams. The rest of the time, I spent tinkering and exploring my own ideas. After three years, I randomly landed a book deal to write Design for Hackers. Dan Ariely mentioned a Barbell Strategy in my latest podcast conversation with him. He says he “gambles with his time.” He spends some portion of his time on things that don’t make sense, such as collaborating with a mentalist on-stage in one of his speeches, or working with a cartoonist. My own Barbell Strategy has benefitted from Dan’s Barbell Strategy. A blog post I wrote as a “wildcard” – during one of my Weeks of Want – prompted Dan to reach out to me. I collaborated with him on a productivity app. We sold it to Google. That blog post also led to my third book, Mind Management, Not Time Management. There’s your The Black Swan summary! I hope you’ve found this The Black Swan summary useful and clear. Taleb’s writing can be confusing and even off-putting at first, but if you take the time to understand his ideas, they can help you navigate an uncertain world and find breakthrough opportunities. I highly recommend The Black Swan. It’s one of my favorite books.   Mind Management, Not Time Management now available! After nearly a decade of work, Mind Management, Not Time Management is now available! This book will show you how to manage your mental energy to be productive when creativity matters. Buy it now! My Weekly Newsletter: Love Mondays Start off each week with a dose of inspiration to help you make it as a creative. Sign up at: kadavy.net/mondays. Listener Showcase Abby Stoddard makes the Dunnit app – the "have-done lilst." It’s a minimalist tool designed to motivate action and build healthy habits. About Your Host, David Kadavy David Kadavy is author of Mind Management, Not Time Management, The Heart to Start and Design for Hackers. Through the Love Your Work podcast, his Love Mondays newsletter, and self-publishing coaching David helps you make it as a creative. Follow David on: Twitter Instagram Facebook YouTube Subscribe to Love Your Work Apple Podcasts Overcast Spotify Stitcher YouTube RSS Email Support the show on Patreon Put your money where your mind is. Patreon lets you support independent creators like me. Support now on Patreon »     Show notes: http://kadavy.net/blog/posts/black-swan-summary 

Listen and explore:The books you're looking for are looking for youWhy you should be building an anti-libraryWhy you should never limit how much you spend on booksSurvival of the fittest: let books compete for your attentionThe golden rule about readingThe best place to download free booksThe Rule of Three, the Linda Effect and other filters for deciding what to readWhy reading is so important in living a creative lifeMentioned on this episode:Tiger King DocumentaryHis Dark Materials Omnibus by Phillip PullmanMidnight Sun by Stephenie MyerHow to Read a Book by Charles Van Doren & Mortimer AdlerAntifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder by Nassim TalebThe Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim TalebThe Seven Spiritual Laws of Success: A Practical Guide to the Fulfillment of Your Dreams by Deepak ChopraProject GutenbergGoodreads.comMan's Search for Meaning by Viktor FranklLet Your Life Speak: Listening for the Voice of Vocation by Parker PalmerConnect with us:Website: www.thefarout.life Email us at info@thefarout.lifeOn Instagram: @thefaroutcoupleJulie-Roxane on Instagram: @julieroxaneAlasdair @ www.alasdairplambeck.comSupport this podcast:Become a patron at: https://www.patreon.com/thefaroutcoupleLeave a review on iTunes!Share this episode with a friend! :DCredits:Photo credit: https://www.pinterest.co.uk/pin/794533559233907049/Intro music: "Complicate ya" by Otis McDonaldOutro music: "Running with wise fools" written & performed by Krackatoa (www.krackatoa.com)

Matt Hosking - Goals, Strategy, and Business Agility: Here to call it out!Practitioner and trainer, Matt Hosking has genuinely broad, cross industry and sector experience, forming a deep understanding of what it is to achieve business agility. His experimentation started in the 90's and contributed to his simple definition of agile today which anyone can understand: Make tomorrow better than yesterday. Stripping all the jargon away Matt gets to the heart of agile, making it accessible and relevant for everyone.Matt underscores the importance of leadership and modern management technique to enable change and deal with organisational inertia. He makes the case for a major update to the management practices inherited from the 90s and earlier but also identifies that Agile has not always spoken well to the senior management teams about business agility. Fortunately, Matt's curiosity for product, business strategy and organisational agility means he is well placed to comment and help.And Matt will be exactly the coach to step forward to call out what is missing from your change agenda and your strategy. Matt goes through the ingredients necessary to bring great leadership and change to the organisation. And as for change, people genuinely like change, but only if it is handled right.Finally, Matt talks about the benefits of Product over Project and how it is becoming the norm and in fact is the goto sate for future companies.On Matt's reading List beyond David Marquet generally, is:Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions,2008 book by Dan ArielyThe Goal, 1984, is a management-oriented novel by Eliyahu M. Goldratt,Honourable mention to The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, 2007 book by author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb.Contact Matt:@MattAgileCoachlinkedin.com/in/matthosking74#agile #agilecaoch #agilementorhttps://agilitybynature.com/contact-us/ Our GDPR privacy policy was updated on August 8, 2022. Visit acast.com/privacy for more information.

FIDDLER ON THE ROOF Book by Joseph Stein, Music by Jerry Bock, & Lyrics by Sheldon HarnickEpisode Segments:1:36 - Speed Test3:54 - Why God Why6:13 - Back to Before28:22 - What's Inside46:15 - How Do You Solve a Problem Like Maria?1:03:38 - Our Favorite Things1:10:42 - Corner of the Sky1:15:15 – What Comes Next?Works Consulted & Referenced:Fiddler on the Roof (Original Libretto) by Joseph SteinTevye and His Daughters by Sholem AleichemTradition!: The Highly Improbable, Ultimately Triumphant Broadway-to-Hollywood Story of Fiddler on the Roof, the World's Most Beloved Musical by Barbara IsenbergDance With Demons: The Life of Jerome Robbins by Greg LawrenceFiddler: A Miracle of Miracles (Documentary) Directed by Max LewkowiczWonder of Wonders: A Cultural History of Fiddler on the Roof by Alisa SolomonSense of Occasion by Harold PrinceOpen A New Window: The Broadway Musical in the 1960s by Ethan MorddenThe Making of a Musical: Fiddler on the Roof by Richard Altman with Mervyn KaufmanBlack Fiddler by Richard PiroAfter Anatevka: A Novel Inspired by Fiddler on the Roof by Alexandra SilberFiddler on the Roof (1971 Film) Directed by Norman JewisonMusic Credits:"Overture" from Dear World (Original Broadway Cast Recording)  | Music by Jerry Herman | Performed by Dear World Orchestra & Donald Pippin"The Speed Test" from Thoroughly Modern Millie  (Original Broadway Cast Recording) | Music by Jeanine Tesori, Lyrics by Dick Scanlan | Performed by Marc Kudisch, Sutton Foster, Anne L. Nathan & Ensemble"Why God Why" from Miss Saigon: The Definitive Live Recording  (Original Cast Recording  / Deluxe)  | Music by Claude-Michel Schönberg, Lyrics by Alain Boublil & Richard Maltby Jr.  | Performed by Alistair Brammer"Back to Before" from Ragtime: The Musical (Original Broadway Cast Recording)  | Music by Stephen Flaherty, Lyrics by Lynn Ahrens | Performed by Marin Mazzie"What's Inside" from Waitress (Original Broadway Cast Recording)  | Music & Lyrics by Sara Bareilles | Performed by Jessie Mueller & Ensemble"Miracle of Miracles” from Fiddler on the Roof (New Broadway Cast Recording) | Music by Jerry Bock & Lyrics by Sheldon Harnick | Performed by John Cariani"Maria" from The Sound of Music (Original Soundtrack Recording)  | Music by Richard Rodgers, Lyrics by Oscar Hammerstein II | Performed by Evadne Baker, Anna Lee, Portia Nelson, Marni Nixon"My Favorite Things" from The Sound of Music (Original Soundtrack Recording) | Music by Richard Rodgers, Lyrics by Oscar Hammerstein II | Performed by Julie Andrews"Corner of the Sky" from Pippin (New Broadway Cast Recording) | Music & Lyrics by Stephen Schwartz | Performed by Matthew James Thomas“What Comes Next?” from Hamilton (Original Broadway Cast Recording) | Music & Lyrics by Lin-Manuel Miranda | Performed by Jonathan Groff

Joseph B. Robins, CPA joins The Network to weave his journey for us. He earned his CPA at the age of 24, becoming the youngest CPA in the state of Louisiana at the time. He is determined to keeps his gifts and talents at home, in Baton Rouge LA, to better his community. Instagram: @jrobinscpa Facebook: @jrobinscpa Website: www.jrobinscpa.com Current reading/Recommended Reads: The Mis-Education of the Negro, Carter G. Woodson The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nasim Nicholas Taleb The Mamba Mentality, Kobe Bryant Proverbs & The Old Testament (NASB) Currently listening/Recommended Music: NBA Youngboy Fredo Bang "Forty" Neal Forty Jhene Aiko Roddy Rich "Jesus is Born" Sunday Service Choir Kirk Franklin Frankie Beverly & Maze Pandora Smooth & Classical Jazz Finally, "You Didn't Ask," but..."Stop bullshitting." --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/mike493/message

In this episode, Host editors Annar and Claire welcome their first guest to the podcast: mónica teresa ortiz. mónica is the author of Muted Blood and was the first recipient of the Host Publications Chapbook Prize for her book autobiography of a semiromantic anarchist. Her work is revolutionary and heartfelt, and mónica is a generous and wise soul. We recommend checking out some of the books she mentions in this episode:  The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb The Marvelous Arithmetics of Distance by Audre Lorde Open Veins of Latin America and We Say No by Eduardo Galeano The works of Alma Guillermoprieto Postcolonial Love Poem by Natalie Diaz

This isn’t advice and I am not expert. Use to be a weekly financial podcast but now quarterly. The Stock market is not the economy, and the economy is a concern. Book Recommendations 1. Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb 2. Invested by Danielle Towns and Phil Towns 3. Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World by David Epstein

The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Just because you haven’t seen something doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist, right? Well, Nassim Nicholas Taleb uses this exact logic to explain the Black Swans that happen in our society. A Black Swan is an improbable or highly unlikely event that has three principal characteristics. The first two are that it is unpredictable and it carries a massive impact. The third is the ability to construct an explanation after the fact to make it appear less random, and more predictable. Think of events like 9/11 or the invention of Google. These Black Swans, while unpredictable and impactful, could easily be explained in the moments following the event. Black Swans like these underlie almost everything about the world. But why can’t we acknowledge them until after they occur? Well, according to Taleb, humans are simply hardwired to focus on the details rather than see the big picture. We concentrate only on what we know and understand; therefore, we are unable to conceptualize the impossible. As you read, you’ll learn that we can learn a thing or two from turkeys, you'll see how a casino's greatest threat isn't high-rolling gamblers, and how focusing on what we don't know is critical for making informed decisions. *** Do you want more free audiobook summaries like this? Download our app for free at QuickRead.com/App and get access to hundreds of free book and audiobook summaries.

Even during this period of isolation, and with no venues open for you to perform, its still a great time to work on your live performance, because if you don't have a live show worth watching, no one will pay attention, especially if you're only platform is on Facebook Live. Don't make your live show the last thing on your list of things to accomplish in your career. On this episode, we have back in the studio Larry Butler. Larry has devoted his entire life to the live performance side of the music business. He played keyboards and guitar in bar bands during high school and college in Ohio, which evolved into club and concert promoting, and then tour manager for such artists as Randy Newman, Ry Cooder and Isaac Hayes. Those efforts led to 20+ years at Warner Bros. Records as VP Artist Relations. Although the focus at WBR was to utilize touring to sell records, he also coached many young artists in performance, staging and media relations. During this episode, we discuss: When doing a Facebook Live Performance, remember your job is to entertain, and your performance is key to attracting and keeping your viewers. Make your boring live performance entertaining. Your iphone is a conduit to a visual medium. Choreograph your show. Have a Banner Promoting Yourself. Determining how long your performance on Facebook Live be. Using body language to convey your emotions during a song. Using proper microphone etiquette. How you entertain your audience is timeless. Larry heads up Did It Music (http://www.diditmusic.com) in Nashville Tennessee. His focus these days is teaching young singer/songwriter/performers in the art of becoming experienced artist/writer/entertainers. His most recent book is The Singer/Songwriter Rule Book: 101 Ways To Help You Improve Your Chances Of Success, which is available at Amazon in digital and print. Books and websites mentioned on the show: "The Black Swan" (The Impact of the Highly Improbable) - by Nassim Nicholas Taleb "All You Need To Know About The Music Business (10th edition)" - by Donald Passman "The Plain And Simple Guide To Music Publishing (4th edition)" - by Randall Wixen "A New Earth" - by Eckhart Tolle "The War of Art" - by Stephen Pressfield "Tunesmith" - by Jimmy Webb ASCAP Daily Brief by Dean Kay   Billboard country update by Tom Roland   The Lefsetz Letter by Bob Lefsetz   Pollstar.com    The Business Side of Music ™ © 2020 Beyond the Music Co-Produced & Hosted (by the guy who has a face for podcasting): Bob Bender  Co-Producer, Creator & Technical Advisor (the man behind the curtain): Tom Sabella Audio Engineer (one really cool guy): Jim Tennaboe Director of Video & Continuity (the brains of the entire operation): Deborah Halle Lighting Director (the inventor of video): Mark Pleasant Editor (the “ums' and “aahs' removal guy and who makes us sound good): Mark Sabella Marketing & Social Media: Kaitlin Fritts All Around Problem Solver: Connie Ribas Recorded at: The Bunker in Franklin, TN (except during the Covid 19 pandemic, then it's pretty much done VIA Skype or over the phone, with the exception for those fearless enough to come to Bob Bender's living room… and there are a few). Mixed & Mastered at: Music Dog Studios in Nashville, TN Website: businesssideofmusic.com  Stream or Download (free) businesssideofmusic.com  To submit to be interviewed: musicpodcast@mail.com Sponsorship information businesssideofmusic.com/sponsor-affiliate/ Join our mailing list for show announcements, career advice, industry discounts, free gifts and more.  Like Free Special Thanks to Tom Sabella and Traci Snow for producing and hosting over 100 episodes of the original “Business Side of Music” podcast, and trusting us to carry on their legacy. For our disclaimer and all its details, please click on the applicable link on our website. The music provided for this episode is from: Artist: Phil Keaggy Single: "Germs On The Run" Composer: Phil Keaggy

Join in on the conversation around regenerative capitalism and if/how capitalism can be made regenerative by tweeting @volansjohn and @nori, and you will automatically be entered to win copy of John Elkington’s latest book, Green Swans: The Coming Boom in Regenerative Capitalism!   Most of us are familiar with Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s concept of a black swan: an unforeseen, adverse event with off-the-scale impact. But what if we were to flip this concept on its head? In his new book, John Elkington envisions a world where capitalism transforms to serve people and planet, where the black swan problems currently leading us to exponential breakdown are mitigated by green swan solutions taking us exponentially toward breakthrough.   John is an internationally recognized authority on corporate responsibility and sustainable development, bestselling author, and serial entrepreneur. He currently serves as Chief Pollinator at Volans, a future-focused business working at the intersection of the sustainability, entrepreneurship, and innovation movements. Today, John joins Ross and Paul to discuss his most recent book, Green Swans: The Coming Boom in Regenerative Capitalism, and explain how a green swan differs from a black swan event in its potential for an exponentially positive impact.   John goes on to discuss the idea of regenerative capitalism, explaining why he doesn’t trust incumbents to lead the movement, how we can approach new ventures with a regenerative mindset, and why he suggests transforming the current system rather than scrapping capitalism altogether. Listen in for John’s insight around the unintended consequences of implementing new technologies, and find out what green swans might arise out of the COVID-19 pandemic.   Key Takeaways   [2:52] What John is trying to communicate through Green Swans Black swan = unexpected event, exponential negative impact Raise question re: exponentially positive trajectories   [5:52] How John defines a gray swan and a white swan Gray swans have massive negative impact but were foreseen White swan = template for anything with exponential impact    [8:27] John’s concept of regenerative capitalism Social movements must engage with markets + business Reprogram key parts of system to build resilience   [11:17] The potential for oil and gas to lead the movement Fundamental distrust of incumbents in old economic orders Reptilian instincts, try to undermine opposition   [13:49] Why we shouldn’t just get rid of capitalism Market activity gone on for thousands of years Reform with government, regulatory involvement   [15:57] How to start new ventures with a regenerative mindset Leverage approach of B Corp movement Requires transformation of financial market   [22:19] How a regenerative focus might heal the political divide Potential for transfer of wealth from urban to rural Still dispossessed by tech (automotive, dairy industries)   [25:57] Nori’s potential role in establishing regenerative capitalism Evolving ecosystem of likeminded companies Operate as standard setter of what is regenerative   [30:08] What we need to know about Thomas Midgley  Chemist/engineer with patents for leaded gasoline, freons Single organism who did most damage to planet   [33:26] How to cultivate leaders who put the community’s needs first Reach out to people don’t understand, make uncomfortable Develop ability to listen for weak signals of change   [36:25] What green swans may arise out of COVID-19 Commitment to air quality, places to walk and cycle Universal basic income (has own unintended consequences)   Connect with Ross & Paul    Nori Nori on Facebook  Nori on Twitter Nori on Medium Nori on YouTube Nori on GitHub Nori on Patreon Nori Newsletter Email podcast@nori.com  Nori White Paper Subscribe on iTunes Carbon Removal Newsroom   Resources   John’s Website John on Twitter Volans John Elkington on RCC EP028 Green Swans: The Coming Boom in Regenerative Capitalism by John Elkington The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Books by John Elkington People of the State of New York v. Exxon Mobil Corporation Hyman Minsky Kate Raworth Mariana Mazzucato Business Roundtable  The Innovator’s Dilemma: The Revolutionary Book That Will Change the Way You Do Business by Clayton M. Christensen Certified B Corporation Richard Roberts’ Series on Shareholders vs. Stakeholders RethinkX Thomas Midgley ‘To an Uneducated Ruler’ by Plutarch Leaders’ Quest The Finnish Basic Income Experiment Regenerators John Fullerton at the Capital Institute Janine Benyus at the Biomimicry Institute

"The secret to gaining the upper hand and a negotiation is giving the other side the illusion of control.” -Chris Voss How can FBI hostage negotiation techniques level-up your leadership? Why are emotional intelligence and tactical empathy the sharpest tools? What is the 'Oprah rule' and why should you live your life by it? Hostage Negotiations: From The FBI To The Boardroom Chris Voss, former Lead International Kidnapping Negotiator for the FBI, and current CEO and The Black Swan Group, has had an action-packed career. He started out as a beat cop in New York City and moved laterally into hostage negotiations, thanks to his insatiable attitude to learning, and his insightful understanding of the human condition. How Law Firm Leaders Can Level-Up Their Negotiation Skills Over the years, Chris has worked with and trained some of the world's leading negotiators, entrepreneurs and business leaders. So what do all these people have in common? One greatly underestimated skill ties all these people together: emotional intelligence. Do you have it, or do you need to work on it? Chris explains why it's so vital, and how it can lead to the ultimate collaboration, whether you're negotiating fees, or handling a case. The Link Between Tactical Empathy In Business And Neuroscience In the words of Chris Voss: "Tactical empathy. It's low maintenance and it works". But what exactly is this so-called Jedi mind trick? Chris explains how negotiation strategies are linked to cognitive empathy, and how his theory of tactical empathy is evidenced in our scientific understanding of how our brains function. Key takeaways: The greatest hack for any budding law firm negotiator is a mindset of discovery. Chris' natural curiosity has worked in his favor in hostage negotiations, and throughout his career. Although Chris has honed his skills over the years, this mindset can be taught and cultivated. Like any skill worth having, it takes dedication, but Chris lets us in on a few daily practices that can start you on the road to masterful negotiation. One trick to gaining the upper hand in negotiations is to give your counterpart the illusion of control. Chris explains how to plant seeds of doubt in order to make your adversary think twice. This isn't about mind-manipulation or leading someone astray, it's about creating a favorable situation so that you can avoid being taken advantage of - highly applicable to the legal landscape, from the boardroom to the courtroom. Chris Voss lives his life by the Oprah rule - pull out when you need to, but always leave the door open. The last impression is the lasting impression, and by exiting professionally and politely you always leave space for further collaboration if desired. So what if someone doesn't let you leave politely? Chris breaks down this predatory move and explains what your next course of action should be. Links And Resources The Game Changing Attorney Podcast Michael Mogill Facebook Michael Mogill Twitter Michael Mogill Instagram Michael Mogill LinkedIn Crisp Video Website Crisp Video Facebook Crisp Video Group Twitter Crisp Video Instagram Crisp Video LinkedIn “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Black Swan Group Website Chris Voss LinkedIn "Never Split The Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It" by Chris Voss

 Be honest: Did you see this extremely unlikely global event coming? Or how it would affect your day-to-day life? Our minds are reeling from trying to rationalize the random. We’re hardwired to connect the dots and see patterns. But does our need to make sense of the incomprehensible hurt our ability to thrive? To answer that question, Jeff Bezos recommends The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

- Auswirkungen: - Remote-Work & Zoom-Boom: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/style/zoom-parties-coronavirus-memes.html https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-creating-huge-stressful-experiment-working-home/607945/ https://www.businessinsider.de/international/coronavirus-shopify-employees-work-from-home-employees-1000-bonus-office-2020-3/ - Office-Sharing (WeWork) - SoftBank https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-18/softbank-s-second-thoughts-on-wework-targets-founder-neumann https://fortune.com/2020/03/18/softbank-wework-coronavirus-credit-investors-masayoshi-son/ - Kinos - Hollywood https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/business/media/coronavirus-universal-home-movies.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/15/business/media/movie-theaters-coronavirus.html - Netflix - Dreharbeiten unterbrochen https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/13/21179153/netflix-disney-production-coronavirus-delay-little-mermaid-peter-pan-elvis - Wirtschaft ins Koma versetzen? https://think-beyondtheobvious.com/kuenstliches-wirtschaftskoma-die-staatsfinanzierte-ueberbrueckung-der-corona-krise/ - Bedingungsloses Grundeinkommen auf dem Vormarsch? https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/addybaird/mitt-romney-1000-dollars-coronavirus-yang-ubi - Trump auf dem Weg zum Sozialstaat? $1 Billion Fond https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article206670107/Coronavirus-Ueber-Nacht-erschafft-Trump-in-Amerika-das-bisher-Undenkbare.html - Gig-Economy in der Krise https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/technology/gig-economy-pandemic.html - 3D-Druck von Beatmungsventilen - und Klage https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/17/21184308/coronavirus-italy-medical-3d-print-valves-treatments - Micro-Mobility https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/22/voi-the-european-e-scooter-rentals-startup-pauses-operations-in-several-countries/ - Airlines: Bailout nach Aktienrückkäufen in Milliardenhöhe? https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/opinion/airlines-bailout.html - Amazon: Fokus in Krise, um Kapazität zu managen https://www.businessinsider.de/international/coronavirus-amazon-suspends-all-non-essential-shipments-to-warehouses-2020-3/?r=US&IR=T https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/7kzqv9/amazons-supply-chain-is-breaking-and-independent-businesses-are-screwed https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/business/coronavirus-ups-fedex-xpo-workers.html https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-16/coronavirus-strikes-at-amazon-s-operational-heart-its-delivery-machine - Elon Musk spielt Risikoeinschätzung herunter, um Produktion am Laufen zu halten https://www.protocol.com/tesla-factory-coronavirus-sheriffs-shutdown - Bandbreite: Video-Streamer reduzieren Auflösung https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/19/tech/netflix-internet-overload-eu/index.html - Wie lange wird die Krise andauern? https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/corona-krise-lockdown-koennte-bis-ins-naechste-jahr-dauern-a-ea2e318b-b388-4ccc-8493-318f892381b8 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised - Generationenkonflikt und Ungleichheit https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-generational-war-is-brewing-over-coronavirus-11584437401 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-21/covid-19-divides-u-s-society-by-race-class-and-age https://time.com/5803225/yuval-noah-harari-coronavirus-humanity-leadership/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-florida-beaches-ignore-social-distancing/ https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/21/spring-breakers-coronavirus-140609 - Langfristige Konsequenzen: Überwachung und Auflösung der Privatsphäre? https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/ https://www.ft.com/content/19d90308-6858-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75 https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/19/coronavirus-effect-economy-life-society-analysis-covid-135579 - Buchtipp: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable https://www.amazon.de/Black-Swan-Impact-Improbable-Incerto/dp/081297381X/

No one in the real estate industry planned for a global pandemic to hit in 2020. So, what does a black swan event like the Coronavirus mean for agents, brokerages, associations, MLSs and vendors? How does the potential economic effect of COVID-19 parallel the virus itself?   On this episode of Industry Relations, Rob and Greg are discussing the short- and long-term impact the Coronavirus is likely to have on the real estate industry. They explain how fear and uncertainty might hurt the housing market over the next several months and explore the opportunity the pandemic presents for models like Redfin and Opendoor as well as investors with deep pockets.   Greg and Rob go on to consider how the cancellation of real estate conferences will cause a domino effect through many other industries and which brokerages, agents and vendors won’t be able to survive this kind of pause in business. Listen in for insight on the serious flaws in our economic system exposed by the health crisis and learn how embracing a little of the prepper mentality can help us respond and adjust to a black swan event like the Coronavirus.   What’s Discussed:  The short-term impact Coronavirus might have on the housing market Buyers take wait-and-see approach Retreat of first-time homebuyers The potential opportunity for models like Redfin and Opendoor How investors are likely to take advantage of low-interest rates The cancellation of real estate events and its domino effect through other industries How the economic fallout of the Coronavirus parallels the virus itself The brokerages, agents and vendors who may not survive a pause in business How the pandemic exposes flaws in our economic and healthcare systems Rob’s insight around manufacturing necessities here in the US The pros and cons of having the world’s reserve currency Embracing the prepper mentality to survive unforeseen circumstances Connect with Rob and Greg: Rob’s Website Greg’s Website Resources: Rob’s Post on COVID-19 President Trump’s March 11 Address Nassim Nicholas Taleb The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder by Nassim Nicholas Taleb Our Sponsors: Cloud MLX The Notorious VIP

Summary:Every week on Simple Talk, host Wayne McCullough talks with his guests about faith, family,friends, fitness, and finances. This week, guest Larry Redell takes a deep dive into the world ofpersonal finances and investments. He's the co-owner of St. James Investment Company whichhas been managing equity portfolios for individuals and institutions for two decades. He shareshis thoughts on how to be a smart investor and how to start early to build security for yourfuture.Discipline is more important than mindset, Redell says. You can go into investing with the rightframe of mind, but if you can't establish and sustain good practices, even the best of intentionscan go astray. After all, no one can predict the future. It's impossible to know what peaks orvalleys lay ahead, so it's critical to prepare ahead and be ready for those fluctuations when theycome. Being prepared and disciplined, even a first-time investor can build something great.This Week's Takeaways:-Discipline is more important than mindset-Partnerships grow through shared values and varied skills-There's a difference between speculating and investing-There are times to be bold and times to be cautious-Build an antifragile portfolioQuotes:“What money should give people, I would suggest, if things are healthy, it gives you a lot offlexibility, it gives you a lot of freedom, you know you're going to be able to take care of thoseyou love and those you care about.” -Larry Redell“If you get yourself in debt … that exponential trap can keep you really mired in a bad situation.It can cause a lot of strife and can affect the other areas of your life really adversely.” -LarryRedell“If you can be an investor and put away a little money, if you can compound that money and livebelow your means, to me, you don't need to hit home runs. You hit singles. That's the basis ofour strategy.” -Larry Redell“It's not as hard as everybody thinks. The average person could start with $10,000 and dosomething.” -Wayne McCullough“You don't sit there and try to predict the future. What you try to do is build an antifragile portfolioand economy because you don't know where this black swan is going to come from. You don'tknow what unintended consequences might unwind.” -Larry RedellMentions:On this week's episode, host Wayne McCullough and guest Larry Redell mentioned thefollowing books and films:Liar's Poker: Rising Through the Wreckage on Wall Street by Michael LewisThe Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing by Benjamin GrahamThe Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor by Howard MarksThe Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim TalebAntifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder by Nassim TalebThe Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine by Michael LewisThe Big Short (2015)The Millionaire Next Door: The Surprising Secrets of America's Wealthy by Thomas Stanley andWilliam DankoContact:You can follow St. James Investment Company on their website, stjic.com. There, you can alsofind their regular newsletter on value investing.

Summary:Every week on Simple Talk, host Wayne McCullough talks with his guests about faith, family,friends, fitness, and finances. This week, guest Larry Redell takes a deep dive into the world ofpersonal finances and investments. He's the co-owner of St. James Investment Company whichhas been managing equity portfolios for individuals and institutions for two decades. He shareshis thoughts on how to be a smart investor and how to start early to build security for yourfuture.Discipline is more important than mindset, Redell says. You can go into investing with the rightframe of mind, but if you can't establish and sustain good practices, even the best of intentionscan go astray. After all, no one can predict the future. It's impossible to know what peaks orvalleys lay ahead, so it's critical to prepare ahead and be ready for those fluctuations when theycome. Being prepared and disciplined, even a first-time investor can build something great.This Week's Takeaways:-Discipline is more important than mindset-Partnerships grow through shared values and varied skills-There's a difference between speculating and investing-There are times to be bold and times to be cautious-Build an antifragile portfolioQuotes:“What money should give people, I would suggest, if things are healthy, it gives you a lot offlexibility, it gives you a lot of freedom, you know you're going to be able to take care of thoseyou love and those you care about.” -Larry Redell“If you get yourself in debt … that exponential trap can keep you really mired in a bad situation.It can cause a lot of strife and can affect the other areas of your life really adversely.” -LarryRedell“If you can be an investor and put away a little money, if you can compound that money and livebelow your means, to me, you don't need to hit home runs. You hit singles. That's the basis ofour strategy.” -Larry Redell“It's not as hard as everybody thinks. The average person could start with $10,000 and dosomething.” -Wayne McCullough“You don't sit there and try to predict the future. What you try to do is build an antifragile portfolioand economy because you don't know where this black swan is going to come from. You don'tknow what unintended consequences might unwind.” -Larry RedellMentions:On this week's episode, host Wayne McCullough and guest Larry Redell mentioned thefollowing books and films:Liar's Poker: Rising Through the Wreckage on Wall Street by Michael LewisThe Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing by Benjamin GrahamThe Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor by Howard MarksThe Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim TalebAntifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder by Nassim TalebThe Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine by Michael LewisThe Big Short (2015)The Millionaire Next Door: The Surprising Secrets of America's Wealthy by Thomas Stanley andWilliam DankoContact:You can follow St. James Investment Company on their website, stjic.com. There, you can alsofind their regular newsletter on value investing.

On the first episode of the Emergent Order podcast, John Papola interviews economist, author, and host of the EconTalk Podcast, Russ Roberts. John and Russ explore the story behind their first creative collaboration: Fear the Boom and Bust. This episode also includes an explanation of how the phenomenon known as “emergence” affects our everyday lives, and the relationship between emergence and human nature. More from our guest: Personal website Twitter The EconTalk Podcast Amazon Books page Blog References from this episode: The Use of Knowledge in Society by Friedrich A. Hayek The Price of Everything: A Parable of Possibility and Prosperity by Russ Roberts The Three Languages of Politics: Talking Across the Political Divides by Arnold Kling The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Taleb The Choice: A Fable of Free Trade and Protectionism by Russ Roberts It's a Wonderful Loaf a poem by Russ Roberts Historical Lewisburg - Where the Past Lights the Future a PBS documentary

In unserer zehnten Episode reden wir mit Christian über Softwareverbände, Neuland, Agile Softwareentwicklung und natürlich Devops. Für uns ist diese Folge auch insofern eine Premiere, als wir zum ersten Mal einen Remote-Teilnehmer via Studio-Link im Podcast dabei hatten. Wir haben schon im Vorfeld der Sendung etwas mit unserem Equipment kämpfen müssen und letztlich dann wohl verloren (nachdem die Knackser nicht einmal von Auphonic entfernt werden konnten). So schlimm, dass man sich die Folge nicht anhören kann, ist es nicht, aber wir werden beim nächsten Mal versuchen, das besser hinzubekommen. Shownotes Unsere E-Mail für Fragen, Anregungen & Kommentare: hallo@python-podcast.de Christian stellt sich vor Zope Python Software Verband Das Förderprogramm des PSV Python Software Foundation Django Software Foundation Neuland Why Software Is Eating the World Cynefin Framework - David J Snowden / Komplexitätstheorie Opa erzählt vom Krieg iOS Shortcuts Schwarze Schwäne Russell Keith-Magee - Keynote - PyCon 2019 Castro Sideloading Webassembly Devops Docker Toyota Production System / Kanban Manifesto for Agile Software Development The Black Swan Root Cause Analysis Mean Time Between Failures Mean Time To Recovery Ceph Virtualenv, Venv (eingebaut), Python local packages directory Buildout Continuous Integration Continuous Delivery Ansible Vagrant NixOS Django Cookiecutter Heroku AWS S3 Outage Spring 2017 MongoDB / Redis Reimplementation bei Amazon capex / opex Öffentliches tag auf konektom: pp10

Show Notes Heroku (https://www.heroku.com/) KWu's guide to Portland (http://bit.ly/kwupdxguide) We Can Pickle That (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYey8ntlK_E) Maternity for Engineers: Pregnancy (http://kwugirl.blogspot.com/2018/01/maternity-for-engineers-pregnancy.html) The Programmer's Guide to Pairing on Pregnancy (https://www.schneems.com/2017/06/07/the-programmers-guide-to-pairing-on-pregnancy/) git push baby products (https://www.schneems.com/2018/04/30/git-push-baby-products/) Rework (https://www.amazon.com/o/ASIN/0307463745/parpaspod-20) Solve Your Child's Sleep Problems (https://www.amazon.com/o/ASIN/0743201639/parpaspod-20) Slovenia Ruby User Group (http://www.rug.si/) Ask vs. Guess Culture Communications (http://kwugirl.blogspot.com/2015/05/ask-vs-guess-culture-communications.html) Very British Problems (https://twitter.com/SoVeryBritish) In Quest of a Better Coffee (https://mr.si/posts/2016/04/26/in-quest-of-a-better-coffee/) Recommendations The Up Side of Down: Why Failing Well Is the Key to Success (https://www.amazon.com/o/ASIN/0143126369/parpaspod-20) The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (https://www.amazon.com/o/ASIN/081297381X/parpaspod-20) Deep Work: Rules for Focused Success in a Distracted World (https://www.amazon.com/o/ASIN/1455586676/parpaspod-20) The Three Languages of Politics: Talking Across the Political Divides (https://www.amazon.com/o/ASIN/1944424466/parpaspod-20) Katherine Wu Twitter (https://twitter.com/kwugirl) Instagram (https://instagram.com/kwugirl) Personal Page (http://kwugirl.com/) Parent Driven Development (http://www.parentdrivendevelopment.com/) Parallel Passion Patreon (https://www.patreon.com/parpaspod) Twitter (https://www.twitter.com/parpaspod) Instagram (https://www.instagram.com/parpaspod) Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/parpaspod) Credits Tina Tavčar (https://twitter.com/tinatavcar) for the logo Jan Jenko (https://twitter.com/JanJenko) for the music

“Skin in the Game is about four topics in one: a) uncertainty and the reliability of knowledge (both practical and scientific, assuming there is a difference), or in less polite words bullshit detection, b) symmetry in human affairs, that is, fairness, justice, responsibility, and reciprocity, c) information sharing in transactions, and d) rationality in complex systems and in the real world. That these four cannot be disentangled is something that is obvious when one has…skin in the game.” In this episode of Made You Think, Neil and I discuss Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life by Nassim Taleb. In this book, Taleb touches in many of the topics he’s covered in his previous work, such as virtue signaling and probability, and most of all, true risk taking. "[...] what people resent—or should resent—is the person at the top who has no skin in the game [...]" We cover a wide range of topics, including: Academia and its capability —or lack of it— of predicting real life. Having skin in the game and how it affects your behavior. How minorities impose their preferences to majorities. Judging a complex system by its elements. Sam Harris’ scalding opinion of Nassim Taleb. Virtue signaling. And much more. Please enjoy, and be sure to grab a copy of Skin in the Game by Nassim Taleb. "Not everything that happens happens for a reason, but everything that survives survives for a reason." If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to check out our episode on Antifragile by Nassim Taleb to dive deeper into Taleb’s work, and our episode on 12 Rules for Life by Jordan Peterson, so you too can imagine the awesome podcast Jordan and Taleb could create together. Be sure to join our mailing list to find out about what books are coming up, giveaways we're running, special events, and more. Links from the Episode Mentioned in the show Nassim Taleb on Medium [01:45] Nat Chat [01:04] (Antifragile episode) Twitter [03:48] Uber [13:04] Venture Capital [15:30] Y Combinator [15:37] Startup Company [15:37] Hedge Fund [17:09] Cryptocurrency [18:16] Gilgamesh coin [19:00] Lindy Effect  [21:40] Virtue Signaling [24:32] Middlebury College [24:43] Statin [28:25] American Heart Association [31:30] Coca-Cola [35:20] Confirmation Bias [38:47] The Placebo Effect [38:50] The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority by Nassim Taleb [40:29] Kosher Food [40:29] New Atheism [45:16] Reddit [45:26] Facebook [45:27] Starbucks [45:30] Dick’s Sporting Goods [46:00] Box Company [46:52] Google [56:42] Mutual Assured Destruction [01:02:04] JPMorgan Chase [01:09:00] Apple Inc. [01:09:30] Amazon [01:09:30] Uber [01:09:33] Instacart [01:09:33] Fat Tony [01:09:52] The National Football League (NFL) [01:18:36] Tesla [01:12:54] In-n-Out Burger [1:23:33] Chipotle [1:23:33] D'Souza rips apart smug leftist student over "white privilege" [1:27:30] Humanitarians of Tinder [01:33:17] Toms Shoes [01:33:45] Malaria nets [1:34:33] Sam Harris on Nassim Taleb “insufferable” quotation [1:43:10] The best podcast ever by Sam Harris [1:49:10] Russell Brand Podcast’s Under the Skin [1:49:10] Books mentioned 12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos by Dr. Jordan B. Peterson [00:39] (Nat’s notes) (Neil’s notes) (book episode) Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder by Nassim Taleb [01:04] (Nat’s notes) (book episode) Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Taleb [02:00] The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Taleb [02:00] The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms by Nassim Taleb [02:00] Happy Accidents: Serendipity in Modern Medical Breakthroughs by Morton A. Meyers [14:05] Charlie Munger: The Complete Investor by Tren Griffin [26:30] Merchants of Doubt: by Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway [34:54] (Nat’s notes) (book episode) Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid by Douglas R. Hofstadter [39:34] (Nat’s notes) (book episode) Leverage Points: Places to Intervene in a System by Donella Meadows [52:13] (book episode) Hiroshima Diary: The Journal of a Japanese Physician by Michihiko Hachiya [01:01:28] (Nat’s notes) (book episode) Genghis Khan and the Making of the Modern World by Jack Weatherford [01:37:03] A History of Private Life by Paul Veyne [01:40:39] Waking Up: A Guide to Spirituality Without Religion by Sam Harris [01:47:35] Lying by Sam Harris [01:47:35] People mentioned: Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Antifragile episode) Hillary Clinton [06:58] Steven Pinker [06:58] [1:35:59] Ayn Rand [07:54] Anne Hearst [24:52] Charles Murray [24:57] Aaron Levie [46:51] Donald Trump [01:06:40] Marco Rubio [01:07:22] Chris Christie [01:07:31] Jeff Bezos [01:11:58] Bill Gates [01:12:05] Mark Zuckerberg [01:12:14] J.K. Rowling [01:33:00] Alexander The Great [01:36:39] Jordan B. Peterson [01:41:32] (on this podcast) Sam Harris [01:41:32] Scott Adams [01:49:26] Russell Brand [01:49:47] Jocko [01:53:40] Show Topics 01:30 – Taleb's bibliography, his previous releases. Contrasts and relations between his previous works and Skin in the Game. A greater focus in philosophy and morals, rather than the mathematical focus of his other books. Skin in the game concept for business and non-business people. 06:38 – Taleb's use of criticism of other people, perhaps partially for publicity reasons. Criticizing people at your own weight vs needless harassment. The Ayn Rand effect. 08:50 – The books’ introduction. Academia vs real life. You can’t predict the behavior of a system by studying the behavior of individual elements within the system. Emerging qualities of complex systems. Academia back-explaining knowledge that’s created practically. Skin in the game for Roman architects and medicine scientists. 14:57 – True progress is only possible when you actually stand to lose something should you fail. Defining “rent-seeking” as opposite for “skin in the game”. Different types sorts of investments and whether they constitute rent-seeking. 19:25 – The contents of the book can become a lens through which you see the world. 20:03 – Sponsors. Get a shot of Four Sigmatic Mushroom Coffee mixed with MCT oil powder from Perfecto Keto. Follow our advice, we have skin in the coff… in the game. 20:59 – You can’t judge whether something is robust, if it can survive stressors, if you’re not at risk in case it can’t. The test of time. 23:30 – Business plans and their usefulness, or usefulness for procrastination. 24:54 – Book 2: A First Look at Agency. Advice, and knowing when to listen to it. Advice that’s helpful to the person offering it, rather than who’s being advised. Incentives and metrics under judgement. 26:50 – Judging actions by their intentions, rather than their effects. Nazism vs Communism. Diets, cholesterol, weight, and its effects on health as single elements of a complex system. 35:36 – Avoiding doctors when you have low-risks health issues. Prayer and religion developing related to health, and the high risk of medical procedures. The Placebo Effect. 39:20 – Book 3: That Great Asymmetry. Ant and ant colony metaphor. Predicting a complex system’s behavior through the behavior of singular elements. A small vocal minority affecting the behavior of large groups. The minority effect on holiday greetings and restaurant choices. 45:56 – Gun regulation, and changes in policy meant for advertising. Virtue signaling and what you do out of your beliefs, versus what’s done for public recognition. Standing up for your opinions even if, or specially if, it has social consequences. 50:57 – The free market, bottom-up or top-down models. Changing the parameters of individuals will not change the parameters of the emerging system. 52:57 – Book 4: Wolves Among Dogs. The trade off between security and freedom. Working as a dog, comfortably but restrained, versus working as a wolf, with much more freedom, but less safety. Tactics big companies use domesticating their employees. English manners as a way to domesticate lower classes. 00:59:39 – Suicide bombers and Mutual Assured Destruction. Reasoning and incentives in terrorists perspective, and how to discourage them to commit suicide. Sacrificing oneself and sacrificing the whole nation. 01:02:26 – Freedom and social media. Voluntarily adopting habits of the lower class as a signal of freedom. Nassim Taleb and Twitter. 01:05:53 – Book 5: Being Alive Means Taking Certain Risks. Politicians and relatability. Feeling like a politician is a real person, or simply a scripted facade. The case for Trump and his relatability. 01:08:36 – Resentment against people at the top who don’t have skin in the game, who are not really risking anything. Economic equality and what it truly means. Unfair barriers put up to keep people in the 1% when they might not really be earning their spot anymore. Florence example, where a handful of  families has kept the power for more than 5 centuries. 01:14:38 – Peer approval, the minority effect, and real freedom. 01:17:06 – Book 6: Being Alive Means Taking Certain Risks. Between two people who are equally qualified, the person who looks less “the part” is a wiser choice, as they have had to overcome more challenges to get to where they are. Quarterbacks vs common sense. Elitism and food: steaks, fast-food, and wine. Big mansions and living away from everything. 01:27:38 – Virtue signaling. Protesting or complaining without putting action behind your beliefs. Charity that’s mostly for show and its negative consequences. 01:35:12 – History and violent events: decreasing in frequency, but increasing rapidly in intensity. War, urban violence, and the magnitude of violence. Life that isn’t covered in history outside of big, dramatic events. 01:41:26 – Book 7: Deeper Into Agency. Religion, Beliefs, and Skin in the Game. Sam Harris, Nassim Taleb, and Jordan Peterson. Religion, science, and scientism. 01:49:22 – Sam Harris’ podcast and its infamous guests. 01:50:38 – Book 8: Risk and Rationality. The last section of the book, and concepts in it that are being explored in-depth by Taleb for the first time. “Skin in the Game” as an entry point for Taleb’s work. 01:52:26 – You don’t necessarily need to know what is the reason for something, even if you know that there is a reason. 01:54:31 – Ergodicity and non-ergodicity, or assembled probability vs individual probability. Paranoia and risk reversion. Risk taking and relative risk rather than objective risk. Bathtubs’ and bullets’ potential to scale to kill people. Terrorism, gun violence and non-multiplicative risks. 02:01:35 – Ties back to Taleb’s previous work. Static and dynamics probabilities and life expectancy. 02:05:37 – Wrapping up and sponsor time! Make sure to grab your own copy of “Skin in the Game” through our Amazon sponsored link. To help the podcast maintain the freedom of the market, check out as well our sponsors: Kettle & Fire for all your delicious bone broth needs, with up to 30% OFF! We recommend Perfecto Keto’s coffee-flavored exogenous ketones. Four Sigmatic: for your mushroom coffee and all your other mushroom needs. And as always, don’t forget to check out our Support page. If you enjoyed this episode, don’t forget to subscribe at https://madeyouthinkpodcast.com    

“Time after time I’ve done an analysis of a company, and I’ve figured out a leverage point — in inventory policy, maybe, or in the relationship between salesforce and productive force, or in personnel policy. Then I’ve gone to the company and discovered that there’s already a lot of attention to that point. Everyone is trying very hard to push it in the wrong direction!” In this episode of Made You Think, Neil and I discuss Leverage Points: Places to Intervene in a System by Donella Meadows. In this article, Meadows goes through her twelve “leverage points” in which you can affect change in your company or any complex system, from least to most effective. “Magical leverage points are not easily accessible, even if we know where they are and which direction to push on them. There are no cheap tickets to mastery. You have to work hard at it, whether that means rigorously analyzing a system or rigorously casting off your own paradigms and throwing yourself into the humility of Not Knowing. In the end, it seems that mastery has less to do with pushing leverage points than it does with strategically, profoundly, madly letting go.” We cover a wide range of topics, including: All of Meadow’s 12 Leverage Points Positive and negative feedback loops The NRA and gun control How individuals can change the system in small and big ways Brexit and the Eurozone The paradigms that shape our thinking And much more. If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to check out our episode on The Goal by Eliyahu M. Goldratt for its meta-theory of business, and our episode on Finite and Infinite Games by James Carse, about how employers and employees can create, change, and play in systems. Be sure to join our mailing list to find out about what books are coming up, giveaways we're running, special events, and more. Links from the Episode Mentioned in the show: The Titanic [10:43] Paleolithic diet [12:40] Ketogenic diet [12:40] The Bike-Shed Effect [14:17] Evernote [23:20] Rule of 3 and 10 [23:19] American Eagle [25:15] Zara [25:35] Cryptocurrency [30:15] Apple Inc. [35:00] The Big Mike – Banana Species [39:00] Slippery Slope Argument [41:47] Veil of Ignorance [42:00] The Selfish Gene Hypothesis [47:25] Intuit [54:00] 9-9-9 Plan [54:20] TurboTax [55:40] QuickBooks [55:40] The Florida Shooting [01:05:15] National Rifle Association — NRA [01:05:20] Net Neutrality [01:05:30] The Riddle of the Gun by Sam Harris [01:09:15] Game Theory [01:09:55] The Daily Wire [01:14:13] The Ben Shapiro Show – Podcast [1:14:13] Justworks [01:24:00] MomTrusted.com [01:24:47] AirBnB [01:35:50] Uber [01:35:50] Scott Galloway Says Amazon, Apple, Facebook, And Google should be broken up [1:39:22] Socialists of New York [1:53:59] Flatgeologists [02:01:50] Books mentioned: The Goal: A Process of Ongoing Improvement by Eliyahu M. Goldratt and Jeff Cox [2:57] (Nat’s notes) (book episode) The Way of Zen by Alan Watts [3:00] (Nat’s notes) (Neil’s notes) (book episode) Finite and Infinite Games by James C. Carse [04:31] (Nat’s Notes) (book episode) Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid by Douglas R. Hofstadter [07:36] (Nat’s notes) (book episode) Into the Cool: Energy Flow, Thermodynamics, and Life by Eric D. Schneider and Dorion Sagan [07:23] The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Taleb [16:49] Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder by Nassim Taleb [16:49] (Nat’s notes) (book episode) ​ 12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos by Dr. Jordan B. Peterson [23:59] (Nat’s notes) (Neil’s notes) (book episode) Banana: The Fate of the Fruit That Changed the World by Dan Koeppel [39:25] Merchants of Doubt: by Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway [40:29] (Nat’s notes) (book episode) Hiroshima Diary: The Journal of a Japanese Physician by Michihiko Hachiya [01:04:30] (Nat’s notes) (book episode) The Sovereign Individual by James Dale Davidson and William Rees-Mogg [01:47:50] (Nat’s notes) (book episode) Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind by Yuval Noah Harari [01 :49:24] (Nat’s notes) The Structure of Scientific Revolutions by Thomas Kuhn [02:01:07] Darwin’s Dangerous Idea by Daniel Dennett [02:02:00] (Nat’s notes) (book episode) People mentioned: Donella Meadows Elon Musk [3:10] (on this podcast) Bill Clinton [11:23] George H.W. Bush [11:23] Jordan B. Peterson [47:26] (on this podcast) Herman Cain [54:20] Emperor Hirohito [01:04:50] Ben Shapiro [01:14:04] Donald Trump [01:23:05] Adolf Hitler [01:43:23] Margaret Thatcher [01:44:40] Joe Rogan [01:48:23] Thomas Kuhn [02:00:35] Show Topics 02:01 — Meadows is a corporate consultant, who helps companies increase productivity through what she calls “leverage points”. Her focus is on companies, but it really could be applied to any system. Even the podcast itself! 3:17 — How people try to change complex systems by focusing on the wrong parts, or intervening in the right parts, but in the wrong ways. Meadows’ list of ways in which you can intervene from least to most effective. 6:53 — Each intervention point makes sense in connection to the others. Looking at them in simpler system helps understand their role in complex systems. The bathtub analogy. 10:30 — The 12th point: Constants, parameters, numbers. A person occupying a role doesn’t have as much leverage as the role itself. It’s easier to change small parameters than it is to change a broader picture. Eg.: changing the soda you drink instead of changing your whole diet. The Bike-Shed effect. 16:00 — The 11th point: The sizes of buffers and other stabilizing stocks, relative to their flows.  The check account metaphor; the amount of money that’s usually left in your account, doesn’t come in or out. That’s your buffer, and can be changed. The size of your buffer can really affect your system. It can increase your security, but also liability. Tradeoff between creativity and redundancy. 20:41 — The 10th point: The structure of material stocks and flows (such as transport networks, population age structures).  This rule is harder to immediately apply to the business case. The pipes metaphor; it’s sometimes necessary to set up a system entirely from scratch, or rebuild it, because it’s almost impossible to reach your goals with what’s already present. The rule of 3 and 10. 24:05 — The 9th point: The lengths of delays, relative to the rate of system change. The importance of consumer feedback. Systems with long loops of feedback, such as politics, have trouble self-regulating. At the same time, when there’s lots of immediate feedback, you risk overshooting. 35:08 — The 8th point: The strength of negative feedback loops (...). A negative feedback loop means a system that can turn itself off, such as a thermostat, which’ll stop working once the room reaches the desired temperature. It’s important to have a failsafe that’ll intervene on the event of a worst-case scenario, even if it’s rarely necessary. You can very easily miss the long-term effect of actions that don’t affect the short-term, such like monocultures (the or overworking yourself. 41:00 — Fake news. Ways you could keep fake news from spreading, and how that could slide into censorship. Social media and censorship. The ultimate goal of any company is always to make money. 48:21 — The 7th point: The gain around driving positive feedback loops. Positive feedback loops feed and grow on themselves (the more people have the flu, the faster it’ll spread), but a system with an unchecked positive feedback loop will destroy itself. At some point, a negative feedback loop must kick in, such as what’s happened with the birth rate in western countries. 51:07 — Poverty and wealth as functions of positive and negative feedback loops. Ways you could effectively lessen poverty. Taxing laws and lobbying. 56:00 — Tangent about payment methods. 58:00 — Adjusting positive feedback loops depends on the ultimate goal of the system. How to use commissions as incentives. 01:01:29 — The 6th point: The structure of information flows (who does and does not have access to information). Access to information, and how it affects people’s and company’s behaviors, and creates accountability. 01:05:01 — Accountability in the age of the internet. The NRA and gun control. The NRA as a symptom of America’s pro-gun mentality, not the source of the issue. 01:10:28 — Arguments for both sides of the gun control debate. Initiatives to lessen the instant fame acquired by mass shooters. Comparing different country’s policies without thought to the countries’ different situations. 01:17:12 — Misinformation on the topic of guns in the public and in media: what guns are actually available to the public, which models were used in mass shootings. 01:21:00 — Clickbait. McDonalds’ fries and baldness. 01:22:43 — The 5th point: The rules of the system. The rules of a system are more influential than the people who must play by the rules. Being both an employee and a boss. Benefits and health plans for employees, and how to attract and retain talent. 01:29:18 — The rules of a system can work as incentives and disincentives. 01:30:19 — The 4th point: The power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure. The level to which people can change the system. Utilizing platforms in ways the creators had not originally intended. Unexpected behaviors from children and puppies. 01:33:33 — Religion and superstition. Bottom-up and top-down systems of power. 01:35:15 — Uber, AirBnB, free market and diversity in the market. 01:37:23 — The 3rd point: The goals of the system. The highest level related to the system itself: its ultimate goal. The goal of keeping the market competitive must trump the goal of each company to accumulate profit. Companies that have little to no competition at this point. 01:41:51 — Changing one player in the system doesn’t affect much, except when one individual player can drastically change the goals of the system. Trump, the Conservative Party and Russia. 01:44:20 — Brexit, the UK’s economy, and the Eurozone. City-states and how do you decide the borders of a country. 01:48:36 — The 2nd point: The mindset or paradigm out of which the system — its goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters — arises. The mindset from which the system’s goals come from. Shared mythology and cultural paradigms in today’s society. Digital goods vs physical goods. Shared paradigms as a basis for cooperation and shared goals. 01:58:41 — The 1st point: The power to transcend paradigms. Ever-changing paradigms; your paradigms, as well as scientific paradigms, will keep changing. Not one holds all the truth. 02:05:30 — Wrap-up and sponsor time!. Perfecto Keto is perfect if you’d like to pursue a ketogenic diet! Their matcha MCT oil powder is highly recommended. Kettle & Fire will give you 20% OFF on their delicious bone broths — beef recommended for cooking, and chicken for a good, hot wintery drink! Four Sigmatic: get your mushroom coffee or your hot chocolate, all 15% OFF through our sponsored link. And you can always support us by going through our Amazon sponsored link and checking out our Support page. If you enjoyed this episode, don’t forget to subscribe at https://madeyouthinkpodcast.com  

Stephen Metcalf, Julia Turner, and Dana Stevens answer listener questions about which piece of culture they would forever delete from the universe, how to raise adopted kids, their relationship to cooking, list-making and more.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Stephen Metcalf, Julia Turner, and Dana Stevens answer listener questions about which piece of culture they would forever delete from the universe, how to raise adopted kids, their relationship to cooking, list-making and more.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

James Hopkins is a Co-founder of the Atlas App Store, an early stage Google Play alternative. He studied economics at CU Boulder, and worked at two startups - a health tablet company, and energy retrofit company - before deciding to start his own venture. Show notes at http://hellotechpros.com/james-hopkins/ What You Will Learn From This Episode App Search engines can't find products via their underlying functions. Only apps with the largest budget get top results, but what you can do about that. Why it's easy to develop apps, but not to get exposure. Why you should be focusing on developing localized apps. The basics of app store submission forms. Non-SEO tactics for app adoption.   Resources Mentioned HTP-216: How to Overcome to Cycle of Meh — Patrick Vlaskovits Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Co-hosts Jan Rutherford and Jim Vaselopulos interview John Brumer, Jason Ginos, and Micah Niebauer, founders of Southern Pines Brewing. The three entrepreneurs first met while serving in the 3rd Special Forces Group. John enlisted right into the Special Forces qualification course. Jason went to Millikin University, and was a psychological operations specialist before heading into the 3rd Group. Micah attended Wheaton College in the ROTC Program, and went to the Department of State, the Department of Commerce, joined the 82nd Airborne, and then joined the 3rd Special Forces Group. These men served with distinction, with multiple active-duty tours. John, or Juan Peligro, as the Patagonia crew referred to him, has been a GORUCK Cadre since 2014. Jason and his wife, Aleah, have been married nine years, and have three young children, Tanner, Luke, and Charlotte. Micah and his wife, Patricia have been married for 10 years, and have three young children, Eva, Claudia, and Wyatt. Micah is the CEO, Jason is the CFO, and John is the COO of Southern Pines Brewing, in Southern Pines, North Carolina, where they all reside. Jan and Jim speak with John, Jason, and Micah about how disciplines learned through their Special Forces service helped them unite in a business partnership, and how they chose to advance a home-brewing passion they shared into a viable business. They also discuss how identifying with a community, and participating in community programs lends purpose to the enterprise. They discuss the company's mission and values individually, and how these statements of purpose keep them going despite inevitable challenges. There is also a segment about John’s participation in the Crucible in Patagonia, and how he is applying the lessons into the business on a daily basis. Listen in to learn more about turning a shared passion into a dynamic business partnership.   Key Takeaways [2:00] John, Jason, and Micah all served in the 3rd Special Forces Group, an airborne unit of the Green Berets. Their common bond, and strong teamwork, allowed them to enter head first into the entrepreneurial world as the Co-Founders of Southern Pines Brewing. [4:27] As the Co-Founders developed the slogan and mission statement for Southern Pines Brewing, they focused on the community aspect of craft brewing, with the art, history and tradition behind it. They visited many craft breweries to find inspiration for starting Southern Pines Brewing. They adopted some ideas they saw, and suggestions they received. [6:08] Southern Pines Brewing makes a huge impact on the local community. They participate in Boys and Girls clubs, and the Walter Moss Foundation, and retirement homes. They take their military community sense of belonging with them. Everybody understands beer. [7:33] Southern PInes Values: The customer is the focus of everything we do. We provide the highest quality products for our customers. We are a professional organization, demonstrating this in everything we do. We are constantly learning and growing. We are good citizens in the community. Fear will not drive decision-making. We are aggressive. Nothing is impossible. [8:58] Jason explains that their ambition to venture into brewing led them to be aggressive. First, they needed aggressive growth. In the second year they needed growth and financial efficiency. They will aggressively reach for their full effective production capacity, and eliminate choke points. In 2017, they will grow, but aggressively pay down debt and become a better business. [11:23] Micah talks about overcoming fear, by being proactive in their decisions. Their military experience leads them to take measured risks daily, not for their lives, but for their livelihood. [15:18] John speaks on how nothing is impossible became one of their values. He recalls a race car course in Special Ops. The lesson he learned was to look where you’re going. Don’t worry about all of the things that could possibly happen. Worry about the outcomes that you’re trying to accomplish. John speaks of his support from his partners to turn a hobby into a viable business. [21:33] Jason recommends, The Intelligent Investor, by Benjamin Graham, and the Berkshire Hathaway books. He also recommends Teddy Roosevelt’s “Man in the Arena” speech. Micah recommends two books, Built to Sell, by John Warrillow, and Scaling Up, by Verne Harnish. John recommends, Tribe, by Sebastian Junger, and Nassim Taleb’s, The Black Swan. [28:53] Micah notes John’s interactions with executives on the Crucible opened opportunities. Jason comments how John was so alive when he got back from being in beautiful landscapes with awesome leaders. The team problem-solving was impactful. John says the biggest thing was the day-to-day training through personal interaction with executives and veterans. [35:20] The partners finally have the time to look forward five to ten years. What are the best tools to get there? It’s another world from three Army guys making beer in a garage. There are opportunities and responsibilities not available before. [37:46] John speaks on how difficult it was to get financing. Jason says eight banks rejected them. The local PNC branch backed them, just when they were ready to go to Plan B. Micah adds they are so successful together because they are equally yoked to the success of the business. No one is going home. The business has to succeed. They are past the point of no-return.   Books Mentioned in This Episode The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing, by Benjamin Graham “Citizenship in a Republic (The Man in the Arena),” by Theodore Roosevelt Built to Sell: Creating a Business That Can Thrive Without You, by John Warrillow Scaling Up: How a Few Companies Make It...and Why the Rest Don't, by Verne Harnish Tribe: On Homecoming and Belonging, by Sebastian Junger The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb   Bios MICAH NIEBAUER, Co-founder & CEO Micah Niebauer is originally from Superior, Wisconsin. He attended college at Wheaton College, IL, majored in Political Science, and was a member of the ROTC program. Upon graduation in 2003, he worked at both the U.S. Department of State and the U.S. Department of Commerce prior to beginning service in the U.S. Army as an Infantry Officer in the 82d Airborne Division. He later joined Special Forces and served in 3rd Special Forces Group (Airborne). Micah completed multiple tours in support of the Global War on Terror before resigning his commission in June of 2013. He is currently the CEO and co-founder of Southern Pines Brewing Company. Micah completed the Siebel Institute of Technology’s Concise Course in Brewing Technology as well as the Essential Quality Control Course at White Labs, San Diego. Micah and his wife Patricia have been married for 10 years and have three children, Eva (7), and Claudia (3), and Wyatt (1). Patricia works as an attorney at Robins, May, and Rich in Pinehurst, and they reside in Southern Pines.   JOHN BRUMER, Co-founder & COO John Brumer is originally from Houston, Texas. He enlisted in the Army after high school and joined Special Forces through the 18X-ray program. John served as a Special Forces Weapons Sergeant in 3rd Special Forces Group (Airborne), completing multiple overseas tours. John was later chosen to serve as an instructor in the 1st Special Warfare Training Group (Airborne). John turned down a promotion in early 2013 and separated from the Army in June of 2014. He is currently the COO and co-founder of Southern Pines Brewing Company. John completed the Siebel Institute of Technology’s Concise Course in Brewing Technology as well as the Essential Quality Control Course at White Labs, San Diego. He has been a GoRuck Cadre since 2014. John resides in Southern Pines.   JASON GINOS, Co-founder and CFO Jason Ginos is originally from Hillsboro, Illinois. Jason completed two years of college at Millikin University, IL, before enlisting in the Army as a Psychological Operations Specialist in 2003. Jason later joined Special Forces and was assigned as a Special Forces Engineer Sergeant to 3rd Special Forces Group (Airborne). Jason completed numerous overseas tours in support of the Global War on Terror. He was later selected to serve as a Small Unit Tactics Instructor in the Special Warfare Center and School. After completing 10 years of service, Jason separated from the Army in June of 2014. He is currently the CFO and co-founder of Southern Pines Brewing Company. Jason and his wife Aleah have been married for 9 years and have three children, Tanner (6), Luke (3), and Charlotte (6 mo). Aleah serves as a First Sergeant in Military Information Support Operations on Fort Bragg, and they reside in Southern Pines.   Website: southernpinesbrewing.com

Co-hosts Jan Rutherford and Jim Vaselopulos interview John Coyle, Founder and CEO of The Art of Really Living. John is one of the world’s leading experts in innovation and design thinking. John is an SVP and Professor of Innovation, and a thought leader in the field of horology — the study of how we as humans process time. His mission is to innovate the human experience, and he has been applying "design thinking" to Fortune 500 companies, careers, and leadership challenges for more than 20 years. Jan and Jim talk with John about his Olympic journey, his pursuit to maximize the ratio of experience to time, how design thinking helped him find the right questions to ask, how to achieve Flow, and when to de-stress to recover. Listen in to learn more about the path to Flow, the pursuit of excellence, and how to apply it with your team.   Key Takeaways [3:39] John spent all of his time as an athlete cramming more distance into the same time. In that pursuit, he won an Olympic silver medal. Small increments of time matter greatly, and can change a life. His experience of the passage of time in the working world (slow in meetings, and fast with friends), led him to study chronoception. He now works to manipulate cognitive time. [7:51] John called every expert he could find on neuroscience and the psychology of time, until he spoke with Dr. Philip Zimbardo at Stanford, who told him everybody experiences the acceleration of time as they age, but nobody has done research on how to unwind it. [8:24] John used design thinking — a style of creative problem-solving through asking the right questions — to try to discover how to get more experienced time in our years. It is possible, as our brains don’t process time linearly. John helps people reframe their relationship with time. [17:40] One of the hallmarks of the Flow state is that the brain actually stops measuring time. Most people report this simultaneously as going really fast, and slowing down completely. Your brain is processing really fast, resulting in the ability to thin-slice and rewind moments with exquisite detail. Steven Kotler says extreme sports and meditation both lead to Flow. [20:28] If you want to slow down time on your vacations, design fear and suffering into them. We are wired for stories. We remember stories much better than data. Stories have a plot, which develops through a crisis. [22:44] Helping your team members move outside their comfort zones, to find their native strengths, and having them design their roles to do more of that, fundamentally changes their relationship with risk and reward. They will risk more when they excel in what they do. [25:10] Mike Weldon was John’s coach from age 11 to 25. He taught John, “Race your strengths; design around and train your weaknesses, but don’t make them your centerpoint.” He designed his Olympic training on Mike Weldon’s teaching, and won the silver-medal. [28:56] John says, ask the right questions in development and leadership. Instead of asking how to fix your weaknesses, ask how to design for your strengths. Don’t ask how to have more years in your life, ask how to have more life in your years. Instead of asking how to maintain a work-life balance, ask how to perform better under increasing stress, and how to recover. [37:41] Reduce stress when needed, by refocusing on your strengths, and applying these three destressors: low-grade aerobics, social intimacy, and physical contact with your partner or a pet. [42:20] Regarding having worked with particular individuals who very publicly fell from grace, John says innovation works by ignoring the rules and the status quo while generating ideas. In order to make a good solution, you then need to apply an ethics filter to the idea. Some people skip that step, and they hurt themselves and others.   Quotable Quotes “The value of an increment of time is not related to its duration.” “I just started becoming obsessed with … how we experience time … the technical term is chronoception.” “Cognitively speaking, how can we experience more time, in the same amount of linear time?” “They can reframe their relationship with time, and actually slow, stop, and reverse the perceived acceleration of time.” “You can get to the Flow state so many ways, but it is one of the penultimate outcomes of the human condition.”   Books Mentioned on the Show 15 Secrets Successful People Know About Time Management:  The Productivity Habits of 7 Billionaires, 13 Olympic Athletes, 29 Straight-A Students, and 239 Entrepreneurs, by Kevin Kruse Neuromarketing: Is There a 'Buy Button' in the Brain? Selling to the Old Brain for Instant Success, by Christophe Morin Team of Teams: New Rules of Engagement for a Complex World, by General Stanley McChrystal (Upcoming Book) Counter-Clockwise: Unwinding Cognitive Time, by John Coyle Flow: The Psychology of Optimal Experience, by Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi Thinking Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman The Rise of Superman: Decoding the Science of Ultimate Human Performance, by Steven Kotler The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, By Nassim Nicholas Taleb Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb The Sun Also Rises, by Ernest Hemingway   Bio John Coyle has an MBA from Northwestern University, and is a graduate of Stanford University's "d.school" where his academic advisor was David Kelley, the founder of IDEO and Steve Jobs' right hand man. John is an NBC sports analyst, two-time TEDx presenter, author, and sought-after keynote speaker. He won an Olympic silver medal in speedskating, an achievement he attributes directly to his design thinking background. As a speaker and author, his talent is weaving facts, examples and intellectual principles into engaging stories which bring his topics to life and really make you think. They are inspiring, practical, and actionable.   Website: JohnKCoyle.com Website: JohnKCoyle.com/Manifesto Website: TheArtofReallyLiving.com  

Hear Ellen defend the Black Swan theory!

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.  The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.  Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. 

More at http://philosophytalk.org/shows/predicting-future. People who predict the future well are sometimes said to be psychic. But we all make predictions about the future, with more or less success. We confidently predict the sun will rise tomorrow, that ice will be cold, etc. But maybe we're not quite as good at predicting the future as we think. Is the stock market predictable? The weather? Political upheavals? Or is life just too random to make good predictions? John and Ken predict that Nassim Taleb, author of "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable," will join them to consider the extent to which we can forecast the future.

Tales From The Crypt

Nassim Taleb is a literary essayist hedge fund manager derivatives trader and professor of risk engineering at The Polytechnic Institute of New York University. But he is best known these days as the author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. During a recent visit to Wharton as part of The Goldstone Forum he spoke with Wharton finance professor Richard Herring -- who taught Taleb when he was a Wharton MBA student -- about events in the Middle East the oil supply investing in options the U.S. economy the dollar health care and of course black swans. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Herr Falschgold rezensiert "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" von Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Skeptical empiricist Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, has bracing things to say about the future. It is inevitable that we will be massively blindsided by events, because our understanding is misled by an array of beguiling illusions about reality. Some lessons: Events are not predictable, but consequences are, so focus on preparedness. Pay attention to elders, because they've experienced more Black Swans. Check Wikipedia's bio of Taleb for more on the vividness of his ideas and exposition.