Podcasts about Expected value

Welcome to RIMScast. Your host is Justin Smulison, Business Content Manager at RIMS, the Risk and Insurance Management Society.   In this episode, Justin interviews RIMS SERMC Member Eric Lobser about his career path at Spire Inc. They discuss his start in Budget Analysis at Laclede Gas, which eventually became Spire Inc. He moved into Operations, Treasury, and then Strategic Planning, including Acquisitions. He continued his career as VP of Enterprise Risk Management. Eric shares how he grew into that position, using knowledge he had gained from all the departments he had worked with. He tells about his early presentations to the Board. Eric explains what ERM means to him, and how ERM helps companies manage risks, including reputation, engage in opportunities, and make the resource allocation decisions that lead to success and mitigate failures.   Listen for Eric's idea to improve the ERM acronym.   Key Takeaways: [:01] About RIMS and RIMScast. [:16] About this episode of RIMScast. Our guest is Eric Lobser. He was a practitioner in the natural gas sector for 35 years. We're going to get his ERM philosophies today. But first… [:42] RIMS-CRMP Workshop. We are delighted to announce that on August 27th and 28th, RIMS President Manny Padilla will be leading the two-day in-person workshop at St. John's University at 101 Astor Place in New York City. A link to the registration is in this episode's show notes. [1:02] RIMS-CRMP Virtual Workshops. RIMS will partner with PARIMA for the RIMS-CRMP Exam Prep on September 1st and 2nd. Registration links are in this episode's show notes. [1:13] Also on the webinars page, you will see a two-part series hosted by the RIMS Membership Department. The "Classroom to Career" webinar series highlights how RIMS equips students with the knowledge, skills, and connections needed to thrive in risk management careers. [1:28] Participants will gain insights into industry trends, career pathways, and practical tools that help them confidently step into the evolving world of risk management after graduation. These sessions will be hosted on September 1st and 9th. [1:41] These sessions are member exclusives and are complimentary for RIMS members, of course. So, if you are interested in becoming a member, this would be the time. Visit RIMS.org/membership. [1:51] RIMS is back on YouTube. Our handle is @RIMSOfficialChannel. We've got plenty of videos there, including RIMScast, RIMScast Canada video podcasts, and other informative and entertaining content from RIMS. Subscribe to the channel today! [2:10] On with the Show! We will take a deep dive into Enterprise Risk Management with Eric Lobser. Eric recently retired from a 35-year career in the natural gas sector. He remained with one company that eventually became Spire Energy. [2:26] Eric is also a member of the RIMS Strategic and Enterprise Risk Management Council. [2:32] We will discuss his career journey, how one role led to the next before settling on Enterprise Risk Management, and his philosophies on what makes ERM truly valuable and why the acronym could use an upgrade. Let's get to it! [2:52] Interview! Eric Lobser, Welcome to RIMScast! [3:17] Justin and Eric met last year during a webinar. Eric has a fascinating career. His entire career was at Spire. Originally, it was Laclede Gas Company. Then it became The Laclede Group, and then Spire. Eric's career was 35 years and some months long. [3:53] Justin says that shows our audience that you can have a risk career at one company. You don't need to jump around. If you're doing well, if you're comfortable, if the company's treating you right, and you're doing a good job. [4:10] Eric says the risk career came later in his life. It was the culmination of a lot of other things he did. He had a varied set of positions at Spire. Over time, it was multiple types of companies. As you go through CEOs, things change. [4:31] Eric says he was there for about five CEOs and got to see many different sides of how business operates. [4:49] Eric says he graduated from Boston College in 1990. It was a tough job market. He wanted a job on the East Coast, but it was an expensive place not to have a job. He went back home. [5:08] His stepfather had a contact at the Laclede Gas Company. He interviewed, and they offered him a position, which he took. Within two weeks, he thought he would be crazy to stay at that company more than a couple of years. He thought it was odd they had a few computers. [5:29] Eric came from a school with a library full of computers. You had to sign up to use them. It taught him to use his mind, and it instilled patience. Those elements have been valuable to Eric's career. [6:06] Eric started as a budget analyst and did that for about a year and a half, in the corporate office in downtown St. Louis. [6:33] Then he was fortunate to move to Operations to do the same sort of work with all the department heads to help them with their budgeting, to translate things from Operations into financial terms and get better relationships with the people who ran the business. [6:53] Eric says he got to understand the business better from the view of the boots on the street. [7:04] Justin asks if risk management and ERM came onto Eric's radar in August 2001, when he became the Managing Director for Strategic Planning and Corporate Development. [7:18] Eric says that he had also worked with property insurance in Treasury. There's a big commodity risk at a natural gas company. There are also market risks and credit risks. [7:33] Eric says Strategic Planning was new to The Laclede Group, taking the budget period and extending it out three years, rolling in strategy and planning. [7:49] Eric helped them to develop software for business planning, custom-made from Access, to help support the Balance Scorecard they rolled out. It included something for Initiatives for making improvements, which were tied to Metrics.  [8:11] There were Action Items. There was a section where you laid out your different risks and what you were doing to mitigate them. The Action Items often required support from other areas. The software would put that into their business plan so they could see it and collaborate. [8:33] Eric says risk management and collaboration are hand-in-hand. [9:09] Eric speaks of a change in leadership, where they went from mostly looking at operational excellence and continual improvement to a more external look at other businesses, at ways to diversify within the gas industry: storage, pipeline, E&P, and more. [9:40] That was the beginning of the thought processes Eric would go through, looking at different businesses; what can go right with them, and what can go wrong. [9:57] Part of modeling acquisitions is taking a look at those scenarios and looking for the probability of a downside, what that downside looks like, and what will drive it. What has to go right to have the best case? What does the base case look like? What are those probabilities? [10:20] Eric says that was the beginning of understanding how risk and business go hand-in-hand. They can't have opportunity without risk. There's no reward without risk. Understanding that was an element of that job. [10:39] Eric was fortunate to have a tremendous boss during that time who helped him gain critical thinking about how things operate. [10:58] Eric says when they were looking at how other companies operate, they were companies within the gas industry, to stay within their knowledge base, and simplify their business, within the natural gas value chain, from wellhead to burner tip. [11:30] They were looking at exploration & production, gathering & processing, pipelines, underground storage, down to uses for it, including compressed natural gas for vehicles and local distribution utilities.  [11:58] Justin suggests that the 13-year period when Eric was in Strategic Planning and Corporate Development, holding several positions, was a key time in his career. Eric says yes, and it was his favorite period. He had gone to school for investment banking and acquisitions. [12:42] Eric says, at the same time, it was a tremendous amount of work. He thought maybe it wasn't the best place to spend his lifetime because of the level of work and stress involved. [13:04] Eric was married and raising a family, and that had to come into play, as well. He says while his wife was extremely patient with him during all those times, sometimes working around the clock, he felt it wasn't the right long-term opportunity for him. [13:20] Eric says one of the things he learned when he was doing acquisitions was developing models for how utilities make money. Eric worked with people who did rate cases at the company, to understand what drove cash flow. [13:47] In doing that, Eric learned how regulations work and how tariffs work. That led to asking himself, if this isn't the right career for me, taking a look at something next to it, which was regulatory and government affairs. [14:27] Eric had already started to learn about it. Once he was in charge, he based it on Missouri regulations. The first acquisition was a company in Kansas City, Missouri. [15:05] The second acquisition was Alagasco in Alabama, and that was a completely different type of ratemaking approach that was annual. They had a formal department. Eric was asked to develop something more formal for the entire company. [15:21] Eric says then they acquired Energy South, which brought them into Mobile and also Mississippi, a third rate jurisdiction. There was a mountain of information to climb. His drive and thirst for knowledge helped him up the curve pretty quickly. [15:53] Eric says relationships and the stuff between the lines are just as important as what you can read about and study. [16:12] Eric says, pulling from his enterprise risk career, one of the impacts is not just financial, but reputation. Reputation is a huge element of rate setting. Your reputation precedes you to the commission that oversees rate case litigation and the parties to the case. [16:47] The parties that are involved include industrials, AARP, low-income groups, an energy efficiency group, and other parties. [17:01] Understanding where they're coming from, and what they're trying to achieve, and working towards something that gives all parties some of what they want, is a key element. [17:18] If you were a bad operator; if you had a significant incident that showed you weren't a safe operator, or you weren't treating your customers well, then going into the rate case, people had their minds set that they wanted to give you not a rate increase but a rate reduction. [17:40] The value of the relationships and the reputation, the stuff that is gray and in between the lines, is not just about what the numbers are but who you are as a business. [17:56] A Quick Break! Many fantastic RIMS events are coming up in 2026. The 11th Annual Chicagoland Risk Forum will return to the Old Post Office on Thursday, September 24th, 2026. Visit ChicagolandRiskForum.org for more information. [18:12] The RIMS Western Regional Conference will be held from October 4th through the 7th in Seattle, Washington. The agenda is live, and registration is open. Visit RIMSWesternRegional.com and the link in this episode's show notes for more information. [18:29] Save the dates: October 18th through the 21st. We will be in Quebec City to celebrate the 50th Live RIMS Canada Conference. Booth sales are open, and sponsorship opportunities are still available. Advance registration is open now. [18:45] Visit RIMSCanadaConference.ca for more information. Also, remember to check out RIMS.org/Canada for our spinoff show, RIMScast Canada, hosted by National Conference Committee Chair, Aaron Lukoni. [19:00] The RIMS ERM Conference 2026 will be held on November 19th and 20th in Columbus, Ohio. Registration is now open. [19:10] Through August 21st, you can nominate a program for the RIMS ERM Global Award of Distinction. If you know of an ERM Program that is award-worthy, we want to hear about it. A link to the nomination form is in this episode's show notes. Visit RIMS.org/ERM2026. [19:29] We're already looking to RISKWORLD 2027, which will be held over four days in New Orleans, Louisiana, from April 18th through the 21st! The call for session proposals is now live and will stay active through August 21st. [19:44] RIMS members can exclusively register by September 4th for the best rate. And get first access to the hotel block. Hotel reservations open on October 28th, ahead of public registration. Sitting this out is the real risk! The link to registration is in this episode's show notes. [20:04] Let's Return to Our Interview with Eric Lobser! [20:31] Justin asks about compliance at a natural gas company. Eric says his career at a critical infrastructure utility delivering a relatively volatile product to people's homes was very safety-oriented with a lot of rules, regulations, and areas of compliance. [21:04] The whole industry faced a need to replace some of its aging infrastructure. That started when Eric was in Treasury and trying to think about how they would afford all the replacements they were going through. [21:22] It came again when Eric was in Regulatory, trying to understand the balance between safety and rates and what's best for the business and what's best for the customer. [21:53] Compliance is not something you can decide to do a little bit or a lot. You have to meet at least the minimum standards. Spire was always at that point but also found the benefit of going beyond that, to deal with it a little bit more strategically. [22:14] Spire was generally a group that looked at opportunities to do replacement in a way that overall was more cost-effective, exceeding requirements on their compliance. Compliance was an enterprise risk. [22:34] Eric says it was not just making sure they were in compliance, but also what the cost of compliance is and what if people change their minds and all of a sudden want us to do this or that? [22:53] Being a regulated utility, your rates are dependent on somebody deciding you deserve to have this. [23:02] Compliance was more often not physical replacement but putting in another pipe beside the old pipe and terminating the old cast iron pipe that had degraded and become a safety issue. [23:26] Spire always paid attention to where they were getting leaks or water potentially getting into the system and areas of geography that had similar types of risk. [23:39] Spire took a strategic approach to look at the information they were getting and figure out where to go and do wholesale changes rather than responding to risks as they popped up. [23:54] Eric says that was the approach where they took compliance and said if we do more, it probably can be better for us and better for the customer to take a better strategic approach. [24:19] Eric says it's inconvenient and sometimes problematic for people when there are workers in the street. Part of Eric's career was dealing with claims and issues that can happen with construction. The construction was necessary to make sure the system was safe. [24:53] Eric says the most prevalent claims were when they were doing excavation and hit something unmapped, like an underground dog fence or sprinkler system. To be cost-effective, they used reliable outside partners to replace these. [26:44] Eric says that every year, when he was in Strategic Planning, he would help put on a two-day conference for the Board to review company strategy and present new ideas. [27:01] Any time they found an acquisition opportunity that met the muster of the executives, they presented that to the Board. [27:!3] Eric says the Board is extremely interested in rate cases, which are the heart and soul of a utility's business. [27:28] Something Eric found helpful later in his career, doing regulatory work, was to pull together parties without overlapping interests, such as the Board and the Public Service Commission, to help them find agreement on why something was beneficial for the customers. [28:58] Eric says, for the first time or two, presenting to the Board was frightening. He was fortunate enough not to be leading the presentations. He reported to officers who helped develop the business planning and strategy. They helped Eric work his way into bigger roles. [29:32] Eric says when he became more involved in doing the modeling, one time he was called by the CEO to speak to the Board while he was on a family vacation. His wife reminds him of this. The Board was very interested in the upside case and downside case of a model scenario. [30:31] Eric says in that phone call he had to give the Board a rigorous view of why they should spend $1.1 billion on this acquisition. While exciting, Eric says presenting to the Board was a very stressful part of the job. They're relying on things that he's saying to them. [31:12] Eric says acquisitions have their own timeline and they develop however they want to. It's not like going to the grocery store to pick up something. When something pops, it pops, and it's all hands on deck. You don't stop until the job is done. [31:35] One more Quick Break! RIMS, The Foundation for Risk ManagementTM, is dedicated to shaping the future of the profession. By making a contribution, you are strengthening the global risk management community and investing in the future of the industry. [31:55] The Foundation also supports the Spencer Educational Foundation but has a different mission. The Foundation focuses on providing opportunities for those professionals who have already decided to enter risk management and are just getting started. [32:09] You can learn more about the Foundation by visiting www.RIMS.org/FRM.  While you're there, be sure to check out information about the Susan Meltzer Scholarship Fund, which was established to honor Ms. Meltzer, who was RIMS President in 1999 and 2000. [32:28] Susan Meltzer was a cherished RIMS President and contributed so much to RIMS and the greater risk community. Learn more at RIMS.org/FRM.  [32:36] Let's Return to Our Interview with Eric Lobser! [32:52] Eric says that it seems to him that if people viewed Enterprise Risk Management more as Enterprise Value Management, they would better understand that it's more about what you need to do to improve the value of your company. [33:19] In Eric's Strategic Planning days in Corporate Acquisitions, he learned that Expected Value is about changing probabilities, not just the impact of those probabilities. [33:32] Eric says Enterprise Risk Management does a great job of addressing both the likelihood and the impact of things going wrong and things going right. What you're building with ERM is value. You're adding to the value of the company. [33:46] Eric thinks more people would engage. It would resonate with a lot of the corporate cultures to look at ERM as a way to build value for the company. [34:08] Justin says that for almost eight years, Eric was the Spire VP of ERM. Justin asks if Eric was able to hit the ground running, going from Regulatory and Government Affairs into ERM. [34:32] Eric says the position started with Insurance, and then Commodity Risk Management, other elements of the business that helped him up the learning curve. From Acquisitions, Regulatory, Operations, and Customer Service, Eric understood a lot about the business. [34:55] Eric says having a couple of years when he was in charge of Spire's Insurance program, including Captive Management, where you retain risk instead of transferring it, was a great transition to eventually getting Enterprise Risk. [35:31] Eric says he read every book he could get his hands on in the time he had. He noticed some of the things they were doing were based on ISO 31000. Eric read through ISO and COSO. COSO felt very intricate and detailed. [36:10] Eric asked himself what the potential was that we were going to adopt something. The culture of the business manages the risk. ERM oversees how the business manages risk. Eric wanted to pick a framework that fit more with Spire's corporate culture. [36:39] Eric says ISO 31000 is adjustable. He felt like it was a good fit. It was more about strategy and enterprise than Spire's focus had been. It was not just about what could go wrong and what they should be concerned about happening, but what must go right. [37:22] Eric says that looped in what he learned in Strategy, what they have to do to be successful, and what could derail them from that. Spire transitioned a little bit less away from risks and more to strategic imperatives and what they had to do to achieve their strategic vision. [38:02] Justin asks about ERM conferences and what makes a great ERM session. Eric says it's a practitioner who has lived through it with real-world experience on what works, what doesn't work, and why it didn't work. [38:18] Eric says everything's specific to the company, so what works for one may not work for another. An experienced practitioner brings a level of credibility that is important. Eric wants a presenter who focuses on what helps a company be more successful in executing its strategy. [38:41] Eric says a lot of presentations go into risk registers and software, but in the end, risk management is change management, with very complex systems. The presenter should speak to engaging the business, getting different areas to collaborate, and making better decisions. [39:31] Eric says those decisions are about how you allocate resources. Resources are limited. You can't do everything, so you prioritize. [39:41] ERM helps you to prioritize better, using a process of identification and assessment, to help you understand how important a risk is in relation to other risks, how soon it needs to be dealt with, and what level of mitigation and controls you already have in place. [40:13] Eric says, ERM helps you determine if this risk is extremely well-managed and there are resources you can take away from it to put toward a risk that's less well-mitigated. [40:22] Eric says a good ERM session presenter talks about how ERM helps a corporation make better decisions and effectuate those resource allocations that then help that company to be more successful. That's what ERM is about, and when somebody talks about that, it resonates. [41:02] Eric says when he hears a concept that really resonates with him, he tries to pull those concepts together. He has used principles from the Enterprise Risk Oversight Committee. [41:44] Justin says the Global ERM Award of Distinction call for submissions is open. You can send in those nominations now. RIMS Global ERM Award of Distinction nominations are open through Aug. 21! [41:57] Justin asks Eric what makes an Enterprise Risk Management program award-worthy. Eric says some of it is going to be based on the eye of the beholder. Enterprise Risk should be customized to the culture. People are going to view what makes a great program differently. [42:28] Eric says that the SERMC is looking for, with the diverse perspectives of the members, a program that is well-integrated into Strategic Planning, helps the business make decisions, and most importantly, helps it be more successful, with fewer downturns, than their competitors. [43:09] Eric says the business manages risk. ERM can help oversee what they're looking at and turn its attention to important things, and help determine the best ways to mitigate or treat risk, or support what they are doing, so the strategy prevents threats from derailing the company. [43:33] Eric says, in the end, a company that is consistently successful is probably the mark of a good Enterprise Risk Management program. [43:51] Justin says, we're going to see you again on November 19th and 20th in Columbus, Ohio at the RIMS ERM Conference. You can get your nominations in now for the RIMS Global ERM Award of Distinction. We'll have a special awards ceremony, like we do every year. [44:07] Eric, it has been such a pleasure to have you on RIMScast! I look forward to seeing you in Columbus. [44:19] Special thanks again to Eric Lobser for joining us here on RIMScast. We appreciate him and all the great work he does for the RIMS SERMC. The call for nominations for the RIMS Global ERM Award of Distinction is open; a link is in this episode's show notes. [44:36] There are specific attributes that will make a nomination truly award-worthy. Submit your nominations today! [44:42] Plug Time! Become a RIMS member and get access to the tools, thought leadership, and network you need to succeed. Visit RIMS.org/membership or email membershipdept@RIMS.org for more information. [45:00] Risk Knowledge is the RIMS searchable content library that provides relevant information for today's risk professionals. Materials include RIMS executive reports, survey findings, contributed articles, industry research, benchmarking data, and more. [45:16] For the best reporting on the profession of risk management, read Risk Management Magazine at RMMagazine.com. It is written and published by the best minds in risk management. [45:29] Justin Smulison is the Business Content Manager at RIMS. Please remember to subscribe to RIMScast on your favorite podcasting app. You can email us at Content@RIMS.org. [45:41] Practice good risk management, stay safe, and thank you again for your continued support!   Links: RIMS ERM Conference 2026 | November 19‒20 in Columbus, Ohio | Registration Now Open! | www.rims.org/ERM2026 | RIMS ERM Global Award of Distinction nominations open through Aug. 21! RIMS Certification Week: Sept. 21‒24 | Complimentary For All Spencer Educational Foundation's 2026 Funding Their Future Gala | Sept. 17, 2026 RISKWORLD 2027 Registration | RIMS members can lock in 2026 rates now through Sept. 4 | Education Content Submission Through Aug. 21. ChicagoLand Risk Forum | Sept. 24, 2026 RIMS Western Regional Conference — Oct. 4‒7, 2026 | Seattle, WA | Register Today. RIMS Canada Conference — Oct. 18‒21, 2026 | Quebec City | www.rimscanadaconference.ca | Advance Registration Open | Sponsorship Opportunities Available The Strategic and Enterprise Risk Center RIMS, the Foundation for Risk Management Spencer Educational Foundation — Scholarships and Grants | Open Calls and Timelines. RIMS Now RIMS-Certified Risk Management Professional (RIMS-CRMP) | Insights Video Series Featuring Joe Milan! RIMS Diversity Equity Inclusion Council RIMS-CRMP Stories RIMScast Canada — Episodes Now Live RISK PAC | RIMS Advocacy RIMScast on YouTube! RIMS Risk Management Magazine | Contribute | Q2 2026 Issue Now Available Sponsor RIMScast — Sales@RIMS.org Upcoming RIMS-CRMP Virtual Workshops: RIMS-CRMP Exam Prep Workshop — Live In NY — Aug 27‒28! 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RIMS Virtual Workshops On-Demand Webinars RIMS-Certified Risk Management Professional (RIMS-CRMP) RISK PAC | RIMS Advocacy RIMS Strategic & Enterprise Risk Center RIMS-CRMP Stories — Featuring RIMS President Manny Padilla!   RIMS Events, Education, and Services: RIMS Risk Maturity Model®   Sponsor RIMScast: Contact sales@rims.org or pd@rims.org for more information.   Want to Learn More? Keep up with the podcast on RIMS.org, and listen on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.   Have a question or suggestion? Email: Content@rims.org.   Join the Conversation! Follow @RIMSorg on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.   About our guest: Eric Lobser, SERMC Member   Production and engineering provided by Podfly.

Want to bet on the NFL like the professionals? Seth Woolcock sits down with betting analyst Joe Madden to break down the five rules that sharp sports bettors consistently follow throughout the NFL season. From bankroll management and closing line value (CLV) to shopping for the best number, avoiding emotional betting, and finding true betting value, this episode covers the fundamental principles that separate disciplined bettors from the public. Whether you're new to sports betting or looking to sharpen your NFL betting strategy for the upcoming season, these actionable tips can help you make smarter decisions every week. Timestamps: (May be off due to ads) Intro - 0:00:00 Protect Your Bankroll Like It's Your Business - 0:01:23 Bet Numbers, Not Teams - 0:03:15 BettingPros Smart Money Tool - 0:05:19 Beat the Closing Line - 0:06:10 Build a System and Leave Emotion Out of It - 0:08:19 Chase Value—Not Winners - 0:11:01 Helpful Links: Hard Rock Bet - Sign up for Hard Rock Bet and make a $5 bet and you'll get $150 in bonus bets if you win. Head over to Hard Rock Bet, sign up and make your first deposit today. Payable in bonus bet(s). Not a cash offer. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in FL. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC, in all other states. Must be 21+ and physically present in AZ, CO, FL, IL, IN, NJ, OH, TN or VA to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling? In FL, call 1-888-ADMIT-IT. In IN, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9-WITH-IT. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ, CO, IL, NJ, OH, TN, VA) ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BettingPros App⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - Make winning bets with advice and picks from top sports betting experts. The BettingPros app puts consensus and expert-driven sports betting advice at your fingertips to help you pinpoint the best odds and make winning bets. Download it today on the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠App Store⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ or ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Google Play⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BettingPros Discord⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - Looking to up your game in sports betting? Join our exclusive sports betting Discord community at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠bettingpros.com/chat⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠! Not only can you connect with expert handicappers who provide free picks for NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, player props, live betting, and more, but now you can also participate in our weekly community picks. Cast your vote, see how your picks stack up against the experts, and track your success! ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BettingPros Pick Tracker⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ – Want to track all of your wagers in one place? Check out the BettingPros Pick Tracker. It syncs up with your sportsbooks to tally which picks hit, and which miss AND gives you a live look at what the public is doing so you can use real-time tracking to determine which plays to make, and which to fade: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠bettingpros.com/pick-tracking⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Can Tom beat the average American on a personal finance quiz?Don puts Tom in the hot seat with eight questions drawn from a financial literacy quiz developed by researchers at Stanford University and TIAA. The topics range from earning, budgeting, inflation, investing, debt, insurance, and risk to evaluating investment advice. Along the way, there's plenty of good-natured ribbing, a debate over compounding, and a reminder that even financial professionals can stumble on carefully worded questions.Later, the guys answer listener questions about whether the small-cap value premium still exists despite the rise of private equity, and whether exotic portfolios like the “Golden Butterfly” really deserve their impressive back-tested reputations.Plus, Tom gives an enthusiastic endorsement of Don's Civil War novel, The Line Uncrossed.00:18 – Tom faces an eight-question financial literacy quiz03:49 – Inflation versus savings: the trickiest question05:53 – Why diversification beats owning a single stock07:11 – The power—and danger—of compound interest08:50 – Insurance coverage young adults actually need09:52 – Expected value and lottery math11:10 – Appropriate investments for different ages12:40 – Why compounding may be the most important concept in investing13:39 – Which asset classes have historically produced the highest returns?16:03 – Does the small-cap value premium still exist?23:01 – Should investors trust the Golden Butterfly portfolio?26:45 – Tom's review of The Line Uncrossed29:17 – Free meetings with Appella advisors31:11 – Blue shirts, blue eyes, and wrapping upQuestions? Comments? Click!

Dr. Beckett discusses why practical “business math” matters in the sports card hobby, from basic percentages (e.g., buying at 80–90% of comps) to avoiding misleading “up 200%” headlines without price context. He urges using statistics, probability, and expected value to evaluate deals—especially breaks—rather than following the herd in prediction markets, noting that AI can also get numbers wrong and must be checked. Beckett also highlights time estimation as a useful skill for card-show work, and cautions that gambling-like products can affect winners as well as losers. He shares a probability anecdote about buying from multiple dealers named “Kevin S,” explains why events often aren't independent, and previews a future nuts-and-bolts episode while encouraging collectors to do their own math (or find a math-savvy buddy) when pricing products and judging breaker configurations.   00:43 Why Math Matters in the Hobby 01:29 Percentages and Price Moves 02:46 Expected Value and Herd Thinking 04:04 AI Can Get Math Wrong 04:32 Time Math at Card Shows 06:17 Gambling Psychology and Edges 07:47 Kevin Odds and Independence 09:58 Expected Value in Product Pricing 10:54 Co-op Breaking and Breaker Boxes    

This final segment brings the week to a close with one of the most raw and honest conversations of the episode. The panel wrestles with the idea of “entertainment value” in wax and breaks, pushes back on how people rationalize losses, and digs into why regret, risk, and expected value matter more than most collectors want to admit. It's blunt, reflective, occasionally uncomfortable, and very much grounded in lived experience rather than theory. The discussion also highlights the difference between nostalgia-driven exceptions and modern price reality, why moderation keeps the hobby sustainable for most people, and how personal thresholds shape collecting behavior far more than hype ever will. Layered throughout is classic Sports Cards Live back-and-forth, humor, chat interaction, and a late-night energy that only comes when people stop posturing and start being honest. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, and join us Saturday nights on YouTube for Sports Cards Live. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ever face a late-stage design decision where your gut says “maybe,” finance says “no,” and the schedule says “hurry”? We unpack a simple way to make those calls with more clarity: using expected value to connect confidence, upside, and downside into one sober view of net benefit. No jargon, no spreadsheets required—just a clear framework that helps you see when a $50,000 test buys real certainty, and when the right move is to ship.Still, numbers don't get the final say. The goal isn't to pick the biggest EV; it's to choose the most balanced, actionable, project-aligned option.If this approach helps you navigate the gray areas between risk and reward, follow the show, share it with a teammate, and leave a quick review so others can find it. Got a decision you're wrestling with? Send it our way—we'll feature it in a future breakdown.This blogpost: https://deeneyenterprises.com/qdd/podcast/expected-value-makes-uncertainty-manageable/Facing a really complicated and nuanced decision? Try this Method to Help with Complex Decisions (DMRCS)Ready to apply this to your project?→ Schedule a free discovery call: Dianna's calendarWant insights like this?→ Subscribe to my newsletter: qualityduringdesign.substack.comLearn the full framework:→ Get the Book: Pierce the Design Fog ABOUT DIANNADianna Deeney is a quality advocate for product development with over 25 years of experience in manufacturing. She is president of Deeney Enterprises, LLC, which helps organizations and people improve engineering design.

Episode: Sunk Costs, Opportunity Costs, and Thinking in Terms of Expected ValueHave you ever kept going with something—even when you knew it wasn't worth it—just because you'd already invested so much time, money, or effort? That's the sunk cost fallacy at work.In this episode of The Grow Your Wealthy Mindset, Dr. Elizabeth Chiang explores how sunk costs, opportunity costs, and expected value shape our financial and life decisions. Drawing insights from Annie Duke's Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, you'll learn how to make more rational choices—whether it's deciding to attend a rainy concert, stick with a struggling investment, or stay in an unfulfilling job.You'll learn:What the sunk cost fallacy is—and how it sneaks into your investing and daily choicesWhy we often “throw good money after bad” and how to stop doing itHow opportunity costs help you see what you could be gaining elsewhereHow to use expected value thinking to make smarter, more objective decisionsReal-life examples from investing, research projects, and career choicesUnderstanding these concepts can help you step back, evaluate your options more clearly, and walk away from what's no longer serving you—financially or personally.Mentioned in this episode:Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away by Annie DukeThinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie DukePlease subscribe and leave a review on your favorite Podcasting platform. Get 12 Financial Mistakes that Keep Physicians from Building Wealth at https://www.growyourwealthymindset.com/12financialmistakes If you want to start your path to financial freedom, start with the Financial Freedom Workbook. Download your free copy today at https://www.GrowYourWealthyMindset.com/fiworkbook Dr. Elisa Chiang is a physician and money coach who helps other doctors reach their financial goals by mastering their money mindset through personalized 1:1 coaching . You can learn more about Elisa at her website or follow her on social media. Website: https://ww.GrowYourWealthyMindset.com Instagram https://www.instagram.com/GrowYourWealthyMindset Facebook https://www.facebook.com/ElisaChiang https://www.facebook.com/GrowYourWealthyMindset YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/WealthyMindsetMD Linked In: www.linkedin.com/in/ElisaChiang Disclaimer: The content provided in the Grow Your Wealthy Mind...

Gain instant access to the new Lab 2.0 now. Discover when playing tight is profitable and when it actually costs you money with elite coach Uri Peleg. You'll gain practical strategies, mindset shifts, and real-world examples that will help you balance your ranges, stay unpredictable, and maximize long-term profits at the poker table.  View the written version of this episode here. 00:00 Expected Value of Strong vs. Marginal Hands  03:42 Why Play Weaker Hands  05:56 Reasons Not to Play Like a Nit  06:53 Importance of Balance and Unpredictability  08:40 Lab 2.0 Overview  11:12 When to Tighten Up Strategically  13:21 Real-World Examples of Adjusting Ranges  16:13 Flexibility with Bet Sizing  19:16 Managing Stack-to-Pot Ratios  In this poker strategy podcast, Mike Brady teams up with elite coach Uri Peleg to answer a classic question: should you play like a nit preflop? While it may seem logical to stick to only the very best hands, the discussion reveals why doing so actually limits your profits. Uri explains that although hands like Aces, Kings, and Queens generate the majority of your expected value, marginal hands such as suited connectors and weaker offsuit holdings still contribute small but meaningful gains. More importantly, including these hands keeps your range balanced and makes it harder for opponents to exploit you when you pick up a monster.  This poker strategy podcast emphasizes that poker is a game of small edges. Even fractions of a big blind add up over time, and being overly tight allows opponents to quickly read your strategy and deny you action. By mixing in more hands, not only do you capture additional value, but you also make your strong hands far more profitable because they become tougher to spot.  At the same time, Uri and Mike point out that there are situations where playing tighter is the smart adjustment. Facing aggressive pros to your left, for example, might call for dropping marginal opens, while softer tables with weak opponents reward a looser approach. Flexibility and awareness of table conditions are key — rigidly sticking to “nit” play leaves money on the table.  This poker strategy podcast ultimately delivers a balanced view: don't be a rock, but don't be reckless either. Learn when to widen your ranges, when to tighten up, and how to think critically about the dynamics at your table. Whether you're a beginner trying to avoid common pitfalls or an experienced player looking to refine your game, this poker strategy podcast gives you actionable insights to stay unpredictable, capture hidden value, and maximize long-term profits.        

In this episode, we explore what it means to invest in a non-ergodic world—where time, not averages, determines outcomes. We unpack concepts like volatility drag, ensemble vs. time averages, and the implications for portfolio strategy, while also reflecting on how AI and zero-click search are reshaping business and investor behavior.Topics covered include:What is ergodicity and why it mattersHow path dependency and emerging phenomena disrupt the long-termHow podcasting and blogging has changedWhat is the future of Money for the Rest of UsEpisode SponsorsNetSuite LinkedIn Jobs – Use this link to post your job for free on LinkedIn JobsInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesWayback Machine: jdstein.comProbabilities and Payoffs: The Practicalities and Psychology of Expected Value by Michael J. Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, CFA—Morgan StanleyThe Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb—Penguin Random HouseThe 60% Problem — How AI Search Is Draining Your Traffic by Tor Constantino, MBA—ForbesHollywood Is Cranking Out Original Movies. Audiences Aren't Showing Up. by Ben Fritz—The Wall Street JournalHow Late Night TV Is Downsizing by Alex Weprin and Rick Porter—The Hollywood Reporter‘Severance' Surpasses ‘Ted Lasso' To Become Apple TV+'s Most Watched Series With Season 2 Launch by Nellie Andreeva—DeadlineList of most watched television broadcasts in the United States—WikipediaTao te Ching by Lao Tzu (Author), Marc Mullinax (Translator)—fortress pressWhy AI Might Not Take All Our Jobs—If We Act Quickly by Justin Lahart—The Wall Street JournalElon Musk and the Dangerous Myth of Omnigenius by Gautam Mukunda—BloombergSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

A casino offers you a game. A coin will be tossed. If it comes up heads on the first flip you win $2. If it comes up on the second flip you win $4. If it comes up on the third you win $8, the fourth you win $16, and so on. How much should you be willing to pay to play?The standard way of analysing gambling problems, ‘expected value' — in which you multiply probabilities by the value of each outcome and then sum them up — says your expected earnings are infinite. You have a 50% chance of winning $2, for '0.5 * $2 = $1' in expected earnings. A 25% chance of winning $4, for '0.25 * $4 = $1' in expected earnings, and on and on. A never-ending series of $1s added together comes to infinity. And that's despite the fact that you know with certainty you can only ever win a finite amount!Today's guest — philosopher Alan Hájek of the Australian National University — thinks of much of philosophy as “the demolition of common sense followed by damage control” and is an expert on paradoxes related to probability and decision-making rules like “maximise expected value.”Rebroadcast: this episode was originally released in October 2022.Links to learn more, highlights, and full transcript.The problem described above, known as the St. Petersburg paradox, has been a staple of the field since the 18th century, with many proposed solutions. In the interview, Alan explains how very natural attempts to resolve the paradox — such as factoring in the low likelihood that the casino can pay out very large sums, or the fact that money becomes less and less valuable the more of it you already have — fail to work as hoped.We might reject the setup as a hypothetical that could never exist in the real world, and therefore of mere intellectual curiosity. But Alan doesn't find that objection persuasive. If expected value fails in extreme cases, that should make us worry that something could be rotten at the heart of the standard procedure we use to make decisions in government, business, and nonprofits.These issues regularly show up in 80,000 Hours' efforts to try to find the best ways to improve the world, as the best approach will arguably involve long-shot attempts to do very large amounts of good.Consider which is better: saving one life for sure, or three lives with 50% probability? Expected value says the second, which will probably strike you as reasonable enough. But what if we repeat this process and evaluate the chance to save nine lives with 25% probability, or 27 lives with 12.5% probability, or after 17 more iterations, 3,486,784,401 lives with a 0.00000009% chance. Expected value says this final offer is better than the others — 1,000 times better, in fact.Ultimately Alan leans towards the view that our best choice is to “bite the bullet” and stick with expected value, even with its sometimes counterintuitive implications. Where we want to do damage control, we're better off looking for ways our probability estimates might be wrong.In this conversation, originally released in October 2022, Alan and Rob explore these issues and many others:Simple rules of thumb for having philosophical insightsA key flaw that hid in Pascal's wager from the very beginningWhether we have to simply ignore infinities because they mess everything upWhat fundamentally is 'probability'?Some of the many reasons 'frequentism' doesn't work as an account of probabilityWhy the standard account of counterfactuals in philosophy is deeply flawedAnd why counterfactuals present a fatal problem for one sort of consequentialismChapters:Cold open (00:00:00)Rob's intro (00:01:05)The interview begins (00:05:28)Philosophical methodology (00:06:35)Theories of probability (00:40:58)Everyday Bayesianism (00:49:42)Frequentism (01:08:37)Ranges of probabilities (01:20:05)Implications for how to live (01:25:05)Expected value (01:30:39)The St. Petersburg paradox (01:35:21)Pascal's wager (01:53:25)Using expected value in everyday life (02:07:34)Counterfactuals (02:20:19)Most counterfactuals are false (02:56:06)Relevance to objective consequentialism (03:13:28)Alan's best conference story (03:37:18)Rob's outro (03:40:22)Producer: Keiran HarrisAudio mastering: Ben Cordell and Ryan KesslerTranscriptions: Katy Moore

Welcome back, to The Corner of Story and Game. In this episode we chat about game design philosophy with Lauren Bond, Senior Narrative Game Designer at Wizards of the Coast. We explore two fascinating lenses from Jesse Schell's The Art of Game Design: the Lens of Expected Value and the Lens of Chance. Lauren shares how these lenses influence her approach to worldbuilding, how randomness can enhance gameplay, and how to create meaningful player interactions through thoughtful design. From balancing skill and luck in RPGs to building immersive narratives in card games, this episode is a treasure trove of insights for creators and players alike.

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David Glidden (@dglid), co-founder of the Forecasting Meetup Network, provides a step-by-step how-to guide to organizing a forecasting meetup. Timestamps 1:08: Review of September forecasting meetup 2:08: Polymarket's commitment to community-building 3:03: October forecasting meetup 7:03: Interview with Glidden begins 8:29: Working with a partner 9:42: Sensitivity to rejection 12:48: Nate Silver's community of elites 14:25: Big visions 15:25: Shayne Coplan's vision 18:28: Scratch your own itch 19:52: Prediction market newsletters 21:39: Polymarket's The Oracle 22:32: How to begin 23:03: Finding a venue 26:17: Focus on n of 1 26:38: Fundraising 27:28: Manifund 32:39: Value for sponsors 37:17: Getting RSVPs 38:56: How to get involved 41:54: Expanding beyond Washington 43:26: Grassroots activism 44:46: Opponents of election betting 47:53: Why companies don't invest in grassroots activism Join us for a pre-election forecasting & prediction markets meetup/party this Tuesday! Details and RSVP for free here: https://partiful.com/e/ITHDAcznT1DppUXD2p9x Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers

A Note from James:"Are you a member of the river or the village? That's the question we're diving into today. Nate Silver—yes, the Nate Silver from 538—joins us with Maria Konnikova, a master of poker and decision-making. Members of the 'river,' as Nate describes, are rational thinkers. They make decisions based on probabilities and data, not emotions. So, are you in the river or the village? Because today, we're talking about how to think differently about risk—whether it's betting on an election, making an investment, or even figuring out how to navigate life. Here's what you need to know."Episode Description:In this episode, James Altucher brings together two brilliant minds: Nate Silver, known for his predictive prowess, and Maria Konnikova, a renowned psychologist and poker player. The trio delves into how they make calculated decisions when the stakes are high. With examples from poker, elections, and everyday life, they discuss how we can all navigate a world full of uncertainty. What does it mean to be a rational thinker? And how can understanding probabilities make you a better decision-maker? Join them as they explore strategies for improving your risk assessment, leveraging data, and making choices that keep you in the game longer.What You'll Learn:Risk Assessment Tools: How to analyze risk effectively using concepts from poker and data science.The River vs. The Village: Are you making rational decisions, or are you just playing it safe? Find out how to challenge your instincts.Understanding Probabilities: How to apply probabilistic thinking to everyday situations, from career moves to investments.Avoiding Cognitive Traps: Learn about common mental biases that can lead to poor decisions and how to overcome them.Betting on Your Choices: Practical advice on evaluating your options to maximize the chances of success.Timestamped Chapters:[01:30] – Are You a Member of the River or the Village?[03:21] – Meet the Guests: Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova[10:09] – Maria's Journey into Poker and Game Theory[14:59] – Understanding Risk and Decision Making[27:55] – The Challenge of Trust and Information in the Digital Age[31:04] – Nate's Transition from Poker to Election Forecasting[42:37] – The Evolution of Poker Strategy[54:15] – Betting Markets and Inefficiencies[1:00:58] – Decision Making and Risk in Poker and LifeAdditional Resources:Maria Konnikova's Book: The Biggest BluffNate Silver's Newsletter: The Silver BulletinMaria Konnikova's Newsletter: The LeapNate Silver's Book: On the EdgePodcast: Risky Business with Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver ------------What do YOU think of the show? Head to JamesAltucherShow.com/listeners and fill out a short survey that will help us better tailor the podcast to our audience!Are you interested in getting direct answers from James about your question on a podcast? Go to JamesAltucherShow.com/AskAltucher and send in your questions to be answered on the air!------------Visit Notepd.com to read our idea lists & sign up to create your own!My new book, Skip the Line, is out! Make sure you get a copy wherever books are sold!Join the You Should Run for President 2.0 Facebook Group, where we discuss why you should run for President.I write about all my podcasts! Check out the full post and learn what I learned at jamesaltuchershow.com------------Thank you so much for listening! If you like this episode, please rate, review, and subscribe to “The James Altucher Show” wherever you get your podcasts: Apple PodcastsiHeart RadioSpotifyFollow me on social media:YouTubeTwitterFacebookLinkedIn

To truly understand cricket, or life for that matter, we need to learn from poker. We need to understand the concept of Expected Value. We also need to learn from economics, and understand Opportunity Cost. Welcome to Episode 19 of Everything is Everything, a weekly podcast hosted by Amit Varma and Ajay Shah. In this episode, Amit shares what he learnt about cricket from being a professional poker player and understanding economics. Amit and Ajay then apply those concepts to life itself. Never again will you be results-oriented. Never again will you be judgemental and insufferable. Welcome to the new humble you. This episode was first published on YouTube on November 3, 2023. For magnificent, detailed, juicy show notes, click here.

I read from expected value to expeditious.     "Expected Value" goes by a number of aliases.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value     The word of the episode is "expectorate".     Theme music from Tom Maslowski https://zestysol.com/     Merchandising! https://www.teepublic.com/user/spejampar     "The Dictionary - Letter A" on YouTube   "The Dictionary - Letter B" on YouTube   "The Dictionary - Letter C" on YouTube   "The Dictionary - Letter D" on YouTube   "The Dictionary - Letter E" on YouTube     Featured in a Top 10 Dictionary Podcasts list! https://blog.feedspot.com/dictionary_podcasts/     Backwards Talking on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLmIujMwEDbgZUexyR90jaTEEVmAYcCzuq     https://linktr.ee/spejampar dictionarypod@gmail.com https://www.facebook.com/thedictionarypod/ https://www.threads.net/@dictionarypod https://twitter.com/dictionarypod https://www.instagram.com/dictionarypod/ https://www.patreon.com/spejampar https://www.tiktok.com/@spejampar 917-727-5757

Throughout this episode, our experts will discuss the intricacies of merging and acquiring businesses and the importance of the Integration Triangle, a framework we have developed to ensure successful outcomes. Host Cristina Barquero is joined by Phil Roux, a partner with 20 years of experience in M&A, and Tom Marshall, a principal in L.E.K. Consulting's Organization and Performance practice, who share their expertise in creating sustainable value for clients and driving synergy value realization. The discussion explores the criticality of taking a pragmatic stance in mergers, the elements of the Integration Triangle, potential issues if those elements are not well integrated and best practices to follow.Key points/topics covered:The critical need for a pragmatic stance in M&A to ensure value creationOverview of the Integration Triangle framework, encompassing value creation, the combined operating model and integration strategyChallenges and risks that arise when there is a lack of alignment between value creation objectives, the combined operating model and integration strategyBest practices for leveraging the Integration Triangle, including early planning, continuous refinement and comprehensive ownership of all three elementsThe expected outcomes of adopting an effective approach to integrating the elements of the Integration Triangle, such as increased value creation, broader buy-in and improved negotiation stanceConnect with our experts on LinkedIn:Phil Roux, Partner, L.E.K. Consulting: https://www.linkedin.com/in/pgdroux/Tom Marshall, Partner, L.E.K. Consulting: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-marshall-1078671b/Cristina Barquero, Practice Manager (O&P), L.E.K. Consulting: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cristina-barquero3108/ Visit L.E.K. Consulting at https://www.lek.com/

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: D&D.Sci: The Mad Tyrant's Pet Turtles, published by abstractapplic on March 30, 2024 on LessWrong. This is a D&D.Sci scenario: a puzzle where players are given a dataset to analyze and an objective to pursue using information from that dataset. You steel your nerves as the Mad Tyrant[1] peers at you from his throne. In theory, you have nothing to worry about: since the Ninety Degree Revolution last year, His Malevolence[2] has had his power sharply curtailed, and his bizarre and capricious behavior has shifted from homicidally vicious to merely annoying. So while everyone agrees he's still getting the hang of this whole "Constitutional Despotism"[3] thing, and while he did drag you before him in irons when he heard a Data Scientist was traveling through his territory, you're still reasonably confident you'll be leaving with all your limbs attached (probably even to the same parts of your torso). Your voice wavering only slightly, you politely inquire as to why you were summoned. He tells you that he needs help with a scientific problem: he's recently acquired several pet turtles (by picking at random from a nearby magic swamp), and wants to know how heavy each of them is, without putting his Precious Beasts[4] to the trouble of weighing them. To encourage you to bring your best, he will be penalizing you 10gp for each pound you overestimate by (An advisor with robes like noontime in summer rushes to the Tyrant's side and whispers something urgent in his ear before scuttling away.) which will be deducted from the 2000gp stipend he will of course be awarding you for undertaking this task, because compelling unpaid labor from foreign nationals is no longer the done thing. (The bright-robed advisor visibly sighs in relief.) However, he snarls with a sudden ferocity, if you dare to insult his turtles by underestimating their weight, he will have you executed (An advisor with robes like the space between stars rushes to the Tyrant's other side and whispers something urgent in his other ear before scuttling away.) that is, he'll have you maimed (The Tyrant looks briefly to the dark-robed advisor, who shakes their head sadly.) lightly tortured (Another sad head-shake.) he'll deduct 80gp (An encouraging gesture.) for each pound you underestimate by (An approving nod.) and he'll also commission an unflattering portrait of you to hang in his throne room. (The dark-robed advisor gives the Tyrant a big smile and two thumbs up.) The meeting apparently having been concluded to his satisfaction, the guards see you out. Some time, some help, some adverse reactions to ambient magic[5], and several waterlogged sets of clothes later, you have a dataset representing a random sample[6] of the other turtles in that swamp. You also convince some palace officials to give reliable testimony on some characteristics of the Tyrant's pets, though no-one is willing to provide any actual measurements[7]. What numbers will you give the Tyrant? I'll post an interactive you can use to test your choices, along with an explanation of how I generated the dataset, sometime on Monday 8th April. I'm giving you nine days, but the task shouldn't take more than an evening or two; use Excel, R, Python, Tiger Instincts, or whatever other tools you think are appropriate. Let me know in the comments if you have any questions about the scenario. If you want to investigate collaboratively and/or call your choices in advance, feel free to do so in the comments; however, please use spoiler blocks or rot13 when sharing inferences/strategies/decisions, so people intending to fly solo can look for clarifications without being spoiled. Notes: You may assume that you are wealthy and courageous enough to prioritize maximizing Expected Value, though the value you assign to providing honest estimates and to the possibility of...

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Comparing Alignment to other AGI interventions: Extensions and analysis, published by Martín Soto on March 21, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. In the last post I presented the basic, bare-bones model, used to assess the Expected Value of different interventions, and especially those related to Cooperative AI (as distinct from value Alignment). Here I briefly discuss important enhancements, and our strategy with regards to all-things-considered estimates. I describe first an easy but meaningful addition to the details of our model (which you can also toy with in Guesstimate). Adding Evidential Cooperation in Large worlds Due to evidential considerations, our decision to forward this or that action might provide evidence about what other civilizations (or sub-groups inside a civilization similar to us) have done. So for example us forwarding a higher aC|V should give us evidence about other civilizations doing the same, and this should alter the AGI landscape. But there's a problem: we have only modelled singletons themselves (AGIs), not their predecessors (civilizations). We have, for example, the fraction FV of AGIs with our values. But what is the fraction cV of civilizations with our values? Should it be higher (due to our values being more easily evolved than trained), or lower (due to our values being an attractor in mind-space)? While a more complicated model could deal directly with these issues by explicitly modelling civilizations (and indeed this is explored in later extensions), for now we can pull a neat trick that gets us most of what we want without enlarging the ontology of the model further, nor the amount of input estimates. Assume for simplicity alignment is approximately as hard for all civilizations (both in cV and cV=1cV), so that they each have pV of aligning their AGI (just like we do). Then, pV of the civilizations in cV will increase FV, by creating an AGI with our values. And the rest 1pV will increase FV. What about cV? pV of them will increase FV. But the misalignment case is trickier, because it might be a few of their misaligned AGIs randomly have our values. Let's assume for simplicity (since FV and cV are usually small enough) that the probability with which a random misaligned (to its creators) AGI has our values is the same fraction that our values have in the universe, after all AGIs have been created: FV.[1] Then, cV(1pV)FV goes to increase FV, and cV(1pV)(1FV) goes to increase (1FV). This all defines a system of equations in which the only unknown is cV, so we can deduce its value! With this estimate, and with some guesses αV and αV for how correlated we are with civilizations with and without our values[2], and again simplistically assuming that the tractabilities of the different interventions are approximately the same for all civilizations, we can compute a good proxy for evidential effects. As an example, to our previous expression for dFC|VdaC|V we will add cVαVdpC|VdaC|V(1pV)+cVαVdpC|VdaC|V(1pV)(1FV) This is because our working on cooperativeness for misalignment provides evidence cV also do (having an effect if their AI is indeed misaligned), but it also provides evidence for cV doing so, which only affects the fraction of cooperative misaligned AIs if their AI is indeed misaligned (to their creators), and additionally it doesn't randomly land on our values. We similarly derive the expressions for all other corrections. Negative evidence In fact, there's a further complication: our taking a marginal action not only gives us evidence for other civilizations taking that action, but also for them not taking the other available actions. To see why this should be the case in our setting, notice the following. If our estimates of the intermediate variables like FV had been "against the baseline of our correlated agents not taking...

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Comparing Alignment to other AGI interventions: Basic model, published by Martín Soto on March 20, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. Interventions that increase the probability of Aligned AGI aren't the only kind of AGI-related work that could importantly increase the Expected Value of the future. Here I present a very basic quantitative model (which you can run yourself here) to start thinking about these issues. In a follow-up post I give a brief overview of extensions and analysis. A main motivation of this enterprise is to assess whether interventions in the realm of Cooperative AI, that increase collaboration or reduce costly conflict, can seem like an optimal marginal allocation of resources. More concretely, in a utility framework, we compare Alignment interventions (aV): increasing the probability that one or more agents have our values. Cooperation interventions given alignment (aC|V): increasing the gains from trade and reducing the cost from conflict for agents with our values. Cooperation interventions given misalignment (aC|V): increasing the gains from trade and reducing the cost from conflict for agents without our values. We used a model-based approach (see here for a discussion of its benefits) paired with qualitative analysis. While these two posts don't constitute an exhaustive analysis (more exhaustive versions are less polished), feel free to reach out if you're interested in this question and want to hear more about this work. Most of this post is a replication of previous work by Hjalmar Wijk and Tristan Cook (unpublished). The basic modelling idea we're building upon is to define how different variables affect our utility, and then incrementally compute or estimate partial derivatives to assess the value of marginal work on this or that kind of intervention. Setup We model a multi-agentic situation. We classify each agent as either having (approximately) our values (V) or any other values (V). We also classify them as either cooperative (C) or non-cooperative (C).[1] These classifications are binary. We are also (for now) agnostic about what these agents represent. Indeed, this basic multi-agentic model will be applicable (with differently informed estimates) to any scenario with multiple singletons, including the following: Different AGIs (or other kinds of singletons, like AI-augmented nation-states) interacting causally on Earth Singletons arising from different planets interacting causally in the lightcone Singletons from across the multi-verse interacting acausally The variable we care about is total utility (U). As a simplifying assumption, our way to compute it will be as a weighted interpolation of two binary extremes: one in which bargaining goes (for agents with our values) as well as possible (B), and another one in which it goes as badly as possible (B). The interpolation coefficient (b) could be interpreted as "percentage of interactions that result in minimally cooperative bargaining settlements". We also consider all our interventions are on only a single one of the agents (which controls a fraction FI of total resources), which usually represents our AGI or our civilization.[2] And these interventions are coarsely grouped into alignment work (aV), cooperation work targeted at worlds with high alignment power (aC|V), and cooperation work targeted at worlds with low alignment power (aC|V). The overall structure looks like this: Full list of variables This section safely skippable. The first 4 variables model expected outcomes: UBR: Utility attained in the possible world where our bargaining goes as well as possible. UBR: Utility attained in the possible world where our bargaining goes as badly as possible. b[0,1]: Baseline (expected) success of bargaining (for agents with our values), used to interpolate between UB and UB. Can be i...

This episode is on YouTube. 

Dorothy succumbs to peer pressure, Atlas enjoys drugs, Quinten discovers the evils of democracy, and James tries to strategize killing a monster. “Portions of the materials are the copyrights and trademarks of Paradox Interactive AB, and are used with permission. All rights reserved. For more information please visit worldofdarkness.com.”

In this week's episode, Pace and Shane discuss expected value as it relates to the world of sports betting - what it means, how the books intentionally don't tell you about it, the fact that most bets you see in advertisements have a negative expected value, and more. You'll also hear about Apple Sports, and Kenny's Vision Pro experience. If you want to join our community - use coupon code BEHINDTHELINES for a discount here:https://courses.inplaylive.com/p/plansFor some Free Sports Investing Training (from one of the world's top live sports wagering experts), click here:https://event.webinarjam.com/register...And start your Free Trial of OddsJam's Premium Betting Tools Here (15% off forever code = inplaylive15 ; 35% off 1st month code = inplaylive):https://oddsjam.com/?ref=yjjkytkIf you want to join our community - use coupon code BEHINDTHELINES for a discount here:https://courses.inplaylive.com/p/plansFor some Free Sports Investing Training (from one of the world's top live sports wagering experts), click here:https://event.webinarjam.com/register...And start your Free Trial of OddsJam's Premium Betting Tools Here (15% off forever code = inplaylive15 ; 35% off 1st month code = inplaylive):If you want to join our community - use coupon code BEHINDTHELINES for a discount here:If you want to join our community - use coupon code BEHINDTHELINES for a discount here:https://courses.inplaylive.com/p/plansFor some Free Sports Investing Training (from one of the world's top live sports wagering experts), click here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register...And start your Free Trial of OddsJam's Premium Betting Tools Here (15% off forever code = inplaylive15 ; 35% off 1st month code = inplaylive): ...

Lairdinho and psufans2 discuss how they evaluate expected value in Sorare, and how that changes with the upcoming new in-season cash competitions. Intro and outro music: My Way by NEFF

Welcome back to another thrilling episode of "Gambling with Good JuJu"! This week, the dynamic crew is joined by the one and only Golden Pants of The Risk Takers Podcast, a seasoned sports bettor with a knack for finding value in the unpredictable world of gambling.In this episode, we delve deep into the realm of +EV betting (Expected Value) with Golden Pants as he shares his expert insights on how to identify and capitalize on value bets. Whether you're a seasoned pro or just getting started, you won't want to miss the valuable tips he dishes out on building bankrolls effortlessly.Our conversation takes an exciting turn as Golden Pants sheds light on the often-overlooked golf betting market. Discover the nuances of betting on the greens, and learn how to navigate this unique landscape for potentially lucrative outcomes.As we explore the intricacies of sports betting, we touch upon the concept of evolving as a bettor. Golden Pants shares personal anecdotes and lessons learned throughout his journey, offering a glimpse into the mindset required for long-term success in the world of gambling.So, grab your favorite beverage, settle in, and join us for a lively discussion on all things sports betting. Whether you're a casual enthusiast or a seasoned gambler, this episode is sure to provide valuable insights and entertainment. Let's talk about gambling with Good JuJu!Follow along on Twitter or Instagram @goodjujubets.

In my life, I've stumbled upon 10 concepts that have changed my life for the better. While they're not directly tied to financial advisor marketing, these 10 concepts have created more success, wealth, and happiness in my life. And they will do the same for you.  In today's show, I reveal the remaining 5 life-changing concepts that every financial advisor who wants more success, wealth, and happiness should know.  And you know what?  Who couldn't use more success, wealth, and happiness?  Listen now.  Show highlights include: The weird way studying the best scams of the past 100 years might be the best financial decision you make (2:47)  Warren Buffet's #1 rule for getting stinkin', filthy rich (4:26)  The “Expected Value” marketing and sales trick that turns even the most skeptical prospect into cold, hard cash (4:46)  How having a well-defined niche lets you break all the marketing “rules” while you laugh your way to the bank (10:28)  Why knowing the 2 distinct types of happiness lets you systematically, intentionally, and purposefully increase your joy (16:26)  Go to https://TheAdvisorCoach.com/Coaching and pick up your free 90 minute download called “5 Keys to Success for Financial Advisors” when you join The James Pollard Inner Circle.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: 1/E(X) is not E(1/X), published by EdoArad on November 9, 2023 on The Effective Altruism Forum. When modeling with uncertainty we often care about the expected value of our result. In CEAs, in particular, we often try to estimate E[effectcost]. This is different from both E[costeffect]1 and E[effect]E[cost] (which are also different from each other). [1] The goal of this post is to make this clear. One way to simplify this is to assume that the cost is constant. So we only have uncertainty about the effect. We will also assume at first that the effect can only be one of two values, say either 1 QALY or 10 QALYs with equal probability. Expected Value is defined as the weighted average of all possible values, where the weights are the probabilities associated with these values. In math notation, for a random variable X, where x are all of the possible values of X.[2] For non-discrete distributions, like a normal distribution, we'll change the sum with an integral. Coming back to the example above, we seek the expected value of effect over cost. As the cost is constant, say C dollars, we only have two possible values: In this case we do have E[effectcost]=E[effect]E[cost], but as we'll soon see that's only because the cost is constant. What about E[costeffect]? which is not 1E[effectcost]=C211$QALY, a smaller amount. The point is that generally 1E[X]E[1X]. In fact, we always have 1E[X]E[1X] with equality if and only if X is constant.[3] Another common and useful example is when X is lognormally distributed with parameters μ,σ2. That means, by definition, that lnX is normally distributed with expected value and variance μ,σ2 respectively. The expected value of X itself is a slightly more complicated expression: Now the fun part: 1X is also lognormally distributed! That's because ln1X=lnX. Its parameters are μ,σ2 (why?) and so we get In fact, we see that the ratio between these values is ^ See Probability distributions of Cost-Effectiveness can be misleading for relevant discussion. There are arguably reasons to care about the two alternatives E[costeffect]1 or E[effect]E[cost] rather than E[effectcost], which are left for a future post. ^ One way to imagine this is that if we sample X many times we will observe each possible value x roughly P(X=x) of the times. So the expected value would indeed generally be approximately the average value of many independent samples. ^ Due to Jensen's Inequality. Thanks for listening. To help us out with The Nonlinear Library or to learn more, please visit nonlinear.org

In the last few years, we've seen equity explode. Property prices have been growing like a weed in a spring. And, lower mortgage interest rates mean loan paydown has been more like the Mississippi than a backyard creek. Many real estate investors who owned property during that period will be tempted to tap into that equity to invest in more properties... leverage up. But, leveraging up is not without risk. In this special class, James demonstrates how risk changes as you leverage up and much more using the concept of expected value and his new spreadsheet: Expected Value - Risk and Reward Calculator. Free Real Estate Deal Analysis Spreadsheet: Download a copy of the newest version of The World's Greatest Real Estate Deal Analysis Spreadsheet™ by going to:https://RealEstateFinancialPlanner.com/spreadsheetImprove Cash Flow: Book a consultation to improve cash flow using our proprietary 88 cash flow improving strategies.Real Estate Agent & Lender Collaborators: Interested in collaborating with us on the Fort Collins real estate investor podcast? Book a free consultation to discuss.

Figure 1  (see full caption below)This post is a part of Rethink Priorities' Worldview Investigations Team's CURVE Sequence: "Causes and Uncertainty: Rethinking Value in Expectation." The aim of this sequence is twofold: first, to consider alternatives to expected value maximisation for cause prioritisation; second, to evaluate the claim that a commitment to expected value maximisation robustly supports the conclusion that we ought to prioritise existential risk mitigation over all else.Executive SummaryBackgroundThis report builds on the model originally introduced by Toby Ord on how to estimate the value of existential risk mitigation. The previous framework has several limitations, including:The inability to model anything requiring shorter time units than centuries, like AI timelines.A very limited range of scenarios considered. In the previous model, risk and value growth can take different forms, and each combination represents one scenarioNo explicit treatment of persistence –– how long the mitigation efforts' effects last for ––as a variable of interest.No easy way [...] ---Outline:(00:38) Executive Summary(05:26) Abridged Report(11:20) Generalised Model: Arbitrary Risk Profile(13:37) Value(19:00) Great Filters and the Time of Perils Hypothesis(21:06) Decaying Risk(21:55) Results(21:58) Convergence(25:35) The Expected Value of Mitigating Risk Visualised(31:59) Concluding Remarks(35:00) AcknowledgementsThe original text contained 24 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: October 23rd, 2023 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/S9H86osFKhfFBCday/how-bad-would-human-extinction-be --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

A thought-provoking conversation about Effective Altruism (EA) with technologist Ben Goldhaber, as we explore its intersections with utilitarianism and transaction costs. We'll try to navigate the tricky terrains of libertarianism and the more "directed" world of EA, balancing directional and destinationist solutions, and the role of strong leadership and community dynamics in maintaining this equilibrium. We'll question the limits of utility maximization as a framework and ponder over the potential dangers it could pose if unchecked. Our discussion investigates how EA, rational thinking, and global development has influenced the field of AI alignment. And my favorite new TWEJ, from @dtarias. In the first monthly edition of TAITC.Some resources:The Reddit source for the TWEJSunday Brunch, for $195, at the BreakersEconTalk: Peter SingerEconTalk: Will McCaskill and LongtermismEconTalk: Eric Hoel and the Repugnant ConclusionKevin Munger--Everything Was Rational and Nothing VibedConsequentialism: IEPEffective Altruism ForumSB-F on SB-F (New York Times)If you have questions or comments, or want to suggest a future topic, email the show at taitc.email@gmail.com ! You can follow Mike Munger on Twitter at @mungowitz

In today's episode of BB+ from One Week Season, Mike Johnson breaks down several key topics, including: Drafters $20 Contest Expected Value and ROI Positional Silos Value of Team Stacks 2022 Champ and Top-10 Review QB trends Positional point allocations Takeaways for 2023

Paul Hembekides, aka Hembo, is a Content Producer for ESPN and got his start in the Stats & Information department, working with Expected Value host Paul Carr in the ESPN research room. Currently, Hembo works on Get Up and #Greeny, Mike Greenberg's daily ESPN Radio show. He also partnered with Greenberg to co-author “Got Your Number”, a New York Times Bestseller that explores sports history through the lens of who “owns” each number in sports. In this conversation, Hembo talks about…The origin of “Got Your Number” and he and Greenberg's process for choosing the numbers.How he put together the stats and facts for each athlete.How he balances stats and words in the book.Biggest surprise when researching and writing the book.His path and how he got to his current ESPN role.What he had to learn to adapt his sports passion and knowledge to TV & Radio.A look inside a researchers mindset & how he approaches the “give me the best stat” question.Tips & advice for getting into sports research.Then, TruMedia's Sergio De La Espriella joins the show to discuss Paul's conversation with Hembo.Show LinksTo purchase “Got Your Number”, click here.Follow Hembo on Twitter: @PaulHembo.Follow @TruMediaSports on Twitter.Listen here or wherever you get your podcasts: Apple, Spotify, Google, Stitcher, TuneIn.

In this episode we talk about what EV is and what return on investment is. We also have a short day of playing cards and slot machines. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/mw-usa/support

Replaying an episode on EVBet DFS style games using Player Props with ThriveFantasy.com and use Promo Code: SBD (100% deposit match up to $100)Want to support the show AND bet vig-free? Sign up at BettorEdge.com and use Promo Code: SBD (free $20)

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: SBF, extreme risk-taking, expected value, and effective altruism, published by vipulnaik on November 13, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum. NOTE: I have some indirect associations with SBF and his companies, though probably less so than many of the others who've been posting and commenting on the forum. I don't expect anything I write here to meaningfully affect how things play out in the future for me, so I don't think this creates a conflict of interest, but feel free to discount what I say. NOTE 2: I'm publishing this post without having spent the level of effort polishing and refining it that I normally try to spend. This is due to the time-sensitive nature of the subject matter and because I expect to get more value from being corrected in the comments on the post than from refining the post myself. If errors are pointed out, I will try to correct them, but may not always be able to make timely corrections, so if you're reading the post, please also check the comments to check for flaws identified by comments. The collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) and his companies FTX and Alameda Research is the topic du jour on the Effective Altruism Forum, and there have been several posts on the Forum discussing what happened and what we can learn from it. The post FTX FAQ provides a good summary of what we know as of the time I'm writing this post. I'm also funding work on a timeline of FTX collapse (still a work in progress, but with enough coverage already to be useful if you are starting with very little knowledge). Based on information so far, fraud and deception on the part of SBF (and/or others in FTX and/or Alameda Research) likely happened and were likely key to the way things played out and the extent of damage caused. The trigger seems to be the big loan that FTX provided to Alameda Research to bail it out, using customer funds for the purpose. If FTX hadn't bailed out Alameda, it's quite likely that the spectacular death of FTX we saw (with depositors losing all their money as well) wouldn't have happened. But it's also plausible that without the loan, the situation with Alameda Research was dire enough that Alameda Research, and then FTX, would have died due to the lack of funds. Hopefully that would have been a more graceful death with less pain to depositors. That is a very important difference. Nonetheless, I suspect that by the time of the bailout, we were already at a kind of endgame. In this post, I try to step back a bit from the endgame, and even get away from the specifics of FTX and Alameda Research (that I know very little about) and in fact even get away from the specifics of SBF's business practices (where again I know very little). Rather, I talk about SBF's overall philosophy around risk and expected value, as he has articulated himself, and has been approvingly amplified by several EA websites and groups. I think the philosophy was key to the overall way things played out. And I also discuss the relationship between the philosophy and the ideas of effective altruism, both in the abstract and as specifically championed by many leaders in effective altruism (including the team at 80,000 Hours). My goal is to encourage people to reassess the philosophy and make appropriate updates. I make two claims: Claim 1: SBF engages in extreme risk-taking that is a crude approximation to the idea of expected value maximization as perceived by him. Claim 2: At least part of the motivation for SBF's risk-taking comes from ideas in effective altruism, and in particular specific points made by EA leaders including people affiliated with 80,000 Hours. While personality probably accounts for a lot of SBF's decisions, the role of EA ideas as a catalyst cannot be dismissed based on the evidence. Here are a few things I am not claiming (some of these are discussed ...

Would you rather get paid $2MM today or $100,000 a year for 30 years?! Both sound great, but there is no correct answer… It all depends on your Discount Rate! This thought experiment depicts one of the fundamental tenants of investing: The Time Value of Money Today, J Scott, shows us how to use this simple idea to gain a competitive advantage… J Scott is a 5-time best-selling BiggerPockets author who just released his incredible new book: REAL ESTATE BY THE NUMBERS! Over 47 chapters, he digs into the 47 formulas that INVESTORS NEED TO UNDERSTAND.   In today's episode, we discuss… What we each learned from our backgrounds in professional poker How to structure any deal to optimize ROI Strategies for making deals pencil in this low DSCR market I know you want to realize the EXPECTED VALUE of this incredible interview, so do not wait to invest your Valuable Time into this making Money with this content!!! Take Control, Hunter Thompson Resources mentioned in the podcast: 1. J. Scott Website Book Interested in investing in ATMs? Check out our webinar.   Please note that investing in private placement securities entails a high degree of risk, including illiquidity of the investment and loss of principal. Please refer to the subscription agreement for a discussion of risk factors. Tired of scrambling for capital?  Check out our new FREE webinar -  How to Ensure You Never Scramble for Capital Again (The 3 Capital-Raising Secrets). Click Here to register.   CFC Podcast Facebook Group

This week, we're doing things a bit differently on Expected Value. Producer Sergio De La Espriella has taken over Expected Value and conducted an interview in Spanish, as a way of expanding accessibility to data and analytics information to the Spanish-speaking public. Our Spanish-speaking guest is Cristian Perez. Cristian is coming off a four year stint with the Cincinnati Reds where he served as an Assistant Bullpen & Advances Scouting Coach. He also played college baseball at Duke University & the University of Southern California. In this conversation, Julio talks about…How he ended up getting into baseballHis earliest experience with baseball analyticsWhy forming relationships is such an important part of coachingHow much access Latin American players have to analyticsWhat can be done to make analytics more digestable to Latin American playersHis favorite moments from his playing career and his time as a MLB coachHis favorite place to eat in South FloridaShow LinksFollow Cristian on Twitter: @Cris_Perez18Follow @TruMediaSports on Twitter.Listen here or wherever you get your podcasts: Apple, Spotify, Google, Stitcher, TuneIn.

A casino offers you a game. A coin will be tossed. If it comes up heads on the first flip you win $2. If it comes up on the second flip you win $4. If it comes up on the third you win $8, the fourth you win $16, and so on. How much should you be willing to pay to play? The standard way of analysing gambling problems, ‘expected value' — in which you multiply probabilities by the value of each outcome and then sum them up — says your expected earnings are infinite. You have a 50% chance of winning $2, for '0.5 * $2 = $1' in expected earnings. A 25% chance of winning $4, for '0.25 * $4 = $1' in expected earnings, and on and on. A never-ending series of $1s added together comes to infinity. And that's despite the fact that you know with certainty you can only ever win a finite amount! Today's guest — philosopher Alan Hájek of the Australian National University — thinks of much of philosophy as “the demolition of common sense followed by damage control” and is an expert on paradoxes related to probability and decision-making rules like “maximise expected value.” Links to learn more, summary and full transcript. The problem described above, known as the St. Petersburg paradox, has been a staple of the field since the 18th century, with many proposed solutions. In the interview, Alan explains how very natural attempts to resolve the paradox — such as factoring in the low likelihood that the casino can pay out very large sums, or the fact that money becomes less and less valuable the more of it you already have — fail to work as hoped. We might reject the setup as a hypothetical that could never exist in the real world, and therefore of mere intellectual curiosity. But Alan doesn't find that objection persuasive. If expected value fails in extreme cases, that should make us worry that something could be rotten at the heart of the standard procedure we use to make decisions in government, business, and nonprofits. These issues regularly show up in 80,000 Hours' efforts to try to find the best ways to improve the world, as the best approach will arguably involve long-shot attempts to do very large amounts of good. Consider which is better: saving one life for sure, or three lives with 50% probability? Expected value says the second, which will probably strike you as reasonable enough. But what if we repeat this process and evaluate the chance to save nine lives with 25% probability, or 27 lives with 12.5% probability, or after 17 more iterations, 3,486,784,401 lives with a 0.00000009% chance. Expected value says this final offer is better than the others — 1,000 times better, in fact. Ultimately Alan leans towards the view that our best choice is to “bite the bullet” and stick with expected value, even with its sometimes counterintuitive implications. Where we want to do damage control, we're better off looking for ways our probability estimates might be wrong. In today's conversation, Alan and Rob explore these issues and many others: • Simple rules of thumb for having philosophical insights • A key flaw that hid in Pascal's wager from the very beginning • Whether we have to simply ignore infinities because they mess everything up • What fundamentally is 'probability'? • Some of the many reasons 'frequentism' doesn't work as an account of probability • Why the standard account of counterfactuals in philosophy is deeply flawed • And why counterfactuals present a fatal problem for one sort of consequentialism Get this episode by subscribing to our podcast on the world's most pressing problems and how to solve them: type ‘80,000 Hours' into your podcasting app. Producer: Keiran Harris Audio mastering: Ben Cordell and Ryan Kessler Transcriptions: Katy Moore

Read the full transcript here. Are ambition and altruism compatible? How ambitious should we be if we want to do as much good in the world as possible? How should we handle expected values when the probabilities become very small and/or the values of the outcomes become very large? What's a reasonable probability of success for most entrepreneurs to aim for? Are there non-consequentialist justifications for longtermism?Habiba Islam is an advisor at 80,000 Hours where she talks to people one-on-one, helping them to pursue high impact careers. She previously served as the Senior Administrator for the Future of Humanity Institute and the Global Priorities Institute at Oxford. Before that she qualified as a barrister and worked in management consulting at PwC specialising in operations for public and third sector clients. Follow her on Twitter at @FreshMangoLassi or learn more about her work at 80,000 Hours at 80000hours.org. [Read more]

Read the full transcriptAre ambition and altruism compatible? How ambitious should we be if we want to do as much good in the world as possible? How should we handle expected values when the probabilities become very small and/or the values of the outcomes become very large? What's a reasonable probability of success for most entrepreneurs to aim for? Are there non-consequentialist justifications for longtermism?Habiba Islam is an advisor at 80,000 Hours where she talks to people one-on-one, helping them to pursue high impact careers. She previously served as the Senior Administrator for the Future of Humanity Institute and the Global Priorities Institute at Oxford. Before that she qualified as a barrister and worked in management consulting at PwC specialising in operations for public and third sector clients. Follow her on Twitter at @FreshMangoLassi or learn more about her work at 80,000 Hours at 80000hours.org.

Are ambition and altruism compatible? How ambitious should we be if we want to do as much good in the world as possible? How should we handle expected values when the probabilities become very small and/or the values of the outcomes become very large? What's a reasonable probability of success for most entrepreneurs to aim for? Are there non-consequentialist justifications for longtermism?Habiba Islam is an advisor at 80,000 Hours where she talks to people one-on-one, helping them to pursue high impact careers. She previously served as the Senior Administrator for the Future of Humanity Institute and the Global Priorities Institute at Oxford. Before that she qualified as a barrister and worked in management consulting at PwC specialising in operations for public and third sector clients. Follow her on Twitter at @FreshMangoLassi or learn more about her work at 80,000 Hours at 80000hours.org.

In this episode I discuss expected value, actual value and variance in more detail. I also discuss my session at a casino about 4 hours from home using advantage play, card counting and advantage slots to make money. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/mw-usa/support

This week, we're doing things a bit differently on Expected Value. Producer Sergio De La Espriella has taken over Expected Value and conducted an interview in Spanish, as a way of expanding accessibility to data and analytics information to the Spanish-speaking public. Our first Spanish-speaking guest is Julio Costa, data scientist for Fulham F.C. in the Premier League. Julio has an unorthodox background that includes studying in the United States, running his own analytics blog, and a history of coaching. In this conversation, Julio talks about…His day to day duties as a data scientist.His interaction with the players and coaching staff.How data is prioritized at Fulham vs at other places he has been.His journey to arriving at Fulham.What he learned from his time at the University of Texas at Austin.The Analysts Eye and how that impacted his career.What he looks for when watching a match.Tips for those looking to become a soccer data scientist.His soccer fandom history coming from Portugal.His favorite place to eat in London.Show LinksFollow Julio on Twitter: @juliocosta_lisb.Follow The Analyst Eye on Twitter: @theanalysteye.To check out The Analyst Eye, click here.Follow @TruMediaSports on Twitter.Listen here or wherever you get your podcasts: Apple, Spotify, Google, Stitcher, TuneIn.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Prioritisation should consider potential for ongoing evaluation alongside expected value and evidence quality, published by freedomandutility on August 13, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum. One argument in favour of funding deworming, despite uncertain effects, is that the expected value is high because the estimated effect size is slightly positive and the direct costs of deworming are low the quality of evidence is high (RCTs) (compared to many other initiatives which get funded by EA) I think this excludes a third key consideration in prioritising causes, which is the potential for ongoing evaluation, both in terms of quality of evaluation and timescales for evaluation. Imagine that we have 2 interventions, intervention A and intervention B. Both have the same estimated effect size where the central estimate is positive, but there's a chance the effect is negative: +0.05 (95% Confidence Interval from -0.25 to +0.35) Both have the same quality of evidence: Effect size estimated from a meta-analysis of 5 RCTs But Intervention A has marginally greater expected value because it's cheaper to implement and Intervention B would be much cheaper to evaluate through ongoing observational studies In this case, I think we should fund Intervention B because of the value of being able to course-correct and update our estimated expected value based on more cheaply accessible new evidence. If EA continues to fund deworming in the long-term, but further testing of effects via RCTs or monitoring of effects via observational studies doesn't occur, there's a risk that millions could be spent sub-optimally. I think EA should either: also fund further evaluation of deworming, or prioritise interventions with better expected value or better quality of evidence or potential for cheaper, higher quality or faster further evaluation, over deworming Thanks for listening. To help us out with The Nonlinear Library or to learn more, please visit nonlinear.org.

Sarah Rudd is one of the early pioneers of modern soccer analytics, being heavily involved in the evolution of soccer analytics over the last 10-15 years. Rudd recently joined Blue Crow Sports Group after spending time with Arsenal in the Premier League. Sarah is half of the “First Family” of soccer analytics, being married to Ravi Ramineni, another top soccer analytics mind who previously worked as the Director of Analytics for the Seattle Sounders. Ravi was on Expected Value a couple of years ago, making them the first wife-and-husband combo to appear on the podcast. In this conversation, Sarah talks about…Her academic background and early professional path before transitioning into soccerThe 2011 presentation that put her on the soccer analytics mapWhat she did at StatDNA (the company Arsenal bought to be their in-house analytics group)How the acceptance of analytics changed during her decade with ArsenalBridging the stereotypical gap between scouting and analyticsWorking on the private side of soccer analyticsAdvantages and disadvantages of a club doing everything in-houseHer new company Blue Crow Sport Group and what they're up toHow she and her husband Ravi watch soccer gamesWhat she's done to track her excitement level during World Cup matchesThen, TruMedia's Sergio De La Espriella joins the show to discuss Paul's conversation with Sarah.Show LinksFollow Sarah on Twitter: @srudd_ok.To check out Sarah on LinkedIn, click here.To check out Sarah's 2011 NESSIS presentation, click here.To take a look at a Guardian piece on StatDNA being bought by Arsenal, click here.To check out a NY Times article on Arsenal and soccer analytics, click here.For more on Blue Crow Sports Group, click here.For more on Blue Crow Sports Group's recent purchase of C.D. Leganes, click here.Follow @TruMediaSports on Twitter.Listen here or wherever you get your podcasts: Apple, Spotify, Google, Stitcher, TuneIn.

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“Whenever you say ‘I can't find ideas,' what you're really saying is, ‘the world is perfect and it needs nothing.'”-MJ DeMarco, HEx Podcast #57—There's a lot of terrible advice out there. Maybe you've noticed this the last time you were outside. People will say things like, “Just follow your passion!” or, “Money doesn't matter!” or, perhaps even worse, “Only 40 more years until retirement, and then you'll be a millionaire!”Some of the people that proffer this advice actually do want the best for you, and they're honestly trying to help. The problem is that they've never learned how money actually works, how wealth is actually created, and how entrepreneurs can solve the problems that are pervasive in society and reap a financial windfall by doing so. Our guest on the podcast today, author MJ DeMarco, has taken aim at all the bad advice out there and has consistently proven the truth of his principles in the process of building out his own businesses and helping tens of thousands of entrepreneurs achieve their financial goals - including me. He reveals the fallacy behind the idea that following your passion will pay your bills; he shows how, in some contexts, money can buy happiness, and how it can also remove some of the sources of unhappiness; and this whole thing about retirement? What people don't tell you is that in 40 years, you'll be 40 years older, and unable to enjoy your money to the degree that you would have been able to while you're young. As he says, wheelchairs, don't fit inside the trunks of Lamborghinis. But his wisdom goes deeper than that. Much deeper. Business can be an incredible source of personal fulfillment, and if you're willing to put your heart and soul (and brain and hands) into something for 10 years, you can win the financial game. You can have it when you're relatively young, and you'll never have to wonder, “What would have happened if I really went for it?”—What We Cover:How the level of access to knowledge is unprecedented right now, and how tapping into it can change the trajectory of your lifeMJ's “C-E-N-T-S” framework for coming up with high-velocity business ideas (featuring the Commandments of Control, Entry, Need, Time, and Scale)How to increase the magnitude of your contribution and accelerate your profitsThe timelessness of great books and podcastsNassim Taleb's concept of “antifragility” and how it can help prepare you for any external event that could threaten your safety and securityThe Great Rat Race Escape, MJ's newest book, a business book/novel hybrid that follows one couple's personal journey from financial slavery to financial freedom”Value skews” and how you can develop them in order to walk over your competition”Superior Unexpected Customer Service” (SUCS) and why it's so much easier today for your business to stand out”Expected Value” and why you should always aim for “Excellent” instead of just “Good”The latest redefinition of “financial freedom” and why it's just financial slavery in a different formWhy investing in your health will improve your life in every other areaWhen you should begin your child's financial education and how to avoid the mediocrity narrativePlease leave a review if you enjoy The HighExistence podcast. 

The OTM boys are back for another strategy show to talk everything you need to know about the concept of Expected Value. -What is EV? -What is the EV of the challenges? -What is the EV of the upcoming base packs? -How can I use the concepts of EV in my Top Shot decision making Website: www.otmnft.com/ Twitter: twitter.com/OwnTheMomentNFT YouTube: www.youtube.com/c/OwnTheMoment Discord Signup: bit.ly/OwnTheMomentDiscordSignup

In this episode, Trishul and Aaron provide a quick primer on common and useful statistical methods. Mean, median, mode, standard deviation, bell curves, and so on. With a normal distribution, the mean should equal the median, and the law of large numbers allows you to make inferences between a sufficiently large sample and the overall population. Unfortunately, most things don't behave as "normally" as we would like. And this is where things can get tricky. Even so, maybe Warren Buffett is just a beneficiary of the Wyatt Earp Effect, which is a great reason why you need to understand the fundamentals of statistics before you put your hard-earned money to work in the financial markets.Episode ReferencesMMS #21. Why the VIX is useless.Investing Forever - Risk Management 101Investing Forever - Intro to VolInvesting Forever - Intro to HistogramsInvesting Forever - Nothing Is PerfectThe Wyatt Earp EffectRandom VariableSample SizePopulation HeatmapsRandom Stock PickingDifference Between Mean and MedianSkewnessKurtosisWarren Buffett says Index Funds are the Best InvestmentPodcast DescriptionWelcome to The Mind Money Spectrum Podcast where your hosts Aaron Agte and Trishul Patel go beyond traditional finance questions to help you explore how to use your money to achieve the freedom you want in life. Aaron is a Financial Planner from the Bay Area, and Trishul is a Wealth Manager on the East Coast. For more information about Aaron, check out GraystoneAdvisor.com. And for more information on Trishul check out InvestingForever.com. We thank you all for listening, and stay tuned for our latest episode on our website, MindMoneySpectrum.com.