Podcast appearances and mentions of rory johnston

When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year, experts projected oil prices would go to $200 a barrel. But then… they didn't. In fact, while gasoline prices rose in the United States, and Europe and Asia suffered higher costs, the resulting energy crisis wasn't even as bad as what followed Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.Why? China. The country seems to have absorbed the costs of Trump's war of choice by releasing hundreds of millions of barrels from its strategic stockpile. On this episode of Shift Key, Rob is joined by Rory Johnston, an oil markets researcher and the author of the Commodity Context newsletter. They discuss China's massive (and quiet) intervention, why it's “the most important thing we learned” from the Iran War, and what it means for the future of energy and geopolitics.Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.Mentioned:China Oil Demand Doubts, Rory's 2023 article about Chinese strategic stockbuildingPreviously on Shift Key: Why the Iran Ceasefire Hasn't Ended the Energy Crisis, featuring RorySubscribe to Heatmap Daily--This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by ...Heatmap Pro brings all of our research, reporting, and insights down to the local level. The software platform tracks all local opposition to clean energy and data centers, forecasts community sentiment, and guides data-driven engagement campaigns. Book a demo today to see the premier intelligence platform for project permitting and community engagement.Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rory Johnston welcomes maritime historian and shipping expert Dr. Sal Mercogliano to Oil Ground Up for a deep dive into the evolving Strait of Hormuz crisis and what it means for global oil markets. Together, they examine why commercial shipping ground to a halt, how tanker operators are weighing risk versus reward, and why reopening one of the world's most important energy chokepoints is far more complicated than simply declaring it open. The conversation also explores Iran's newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the challenges of clearing sea mines, crew shortages, and the logistical hurdles that could keep oil flows below pre-conflict levels for months. Sal explains why shipping—not just oil prices—holds the key to understanding the next phase of this geopolitical crisis, and why supply chains may never return to the way they were before the conflict began.

Members of Parliament agreed to wrap up the current sitting to commence their summer break. Government House leader Steven MacKinnon joins Power & Politics to look back at the 21 government bills passed in the House of Commons during the 14-week sitting. Plus, G7 countries have backed Canada as a major global energy supplier, but what does that mean? Oil market researcher Rory Johnston joins the show to explain.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Michael Every & Rory Johnston. They discuss all things Iran from geopolitics to inflation outlook to what it means for China to President Trump and Secretary Bessent's stablecoin statecraft ambitions. https://bit.ly/3RQ4ixB    

Rory Johnston welcomes legendary energy analyst Bob McNally to Oil Ground Up for a sweeping conversation on the Strait of Hormuz crisis, global oil supply disruptions, and the fragile state of today's energy markets. Bob reflects on decades of experience spanning the White House, hedge funds, and energy consulting while explaining why the closure of Hormuz represents a historic shift in how the world must think about oil security and geopolitical risk. The discussion dives deep into Iran's leverage over global energy flows, the growing disconnect between physical oil fundamentals and financial markets, and why many traders may still be underestimating the long-term consequences of this disruption. Rory and Bob also explore what reopening Hormuz could realistically look like, why inventories and shipping flows remain critical, and how this crisis may permanently reshape investment in global hydrocarbons. From oil demand destruction and rising geopolitical premiums to the future of North American energy dominance, this episode offers one of the most comprehensive macro discussions yet on the evolving global energy landscape.

What's behind the growing challenges facing young job seekers, and could global oil disruptions add further pressure to the economy? As youth unemployment remains stubbornly high, questions are building about what is driving the slowdown in hiring and what it means for those entering the workforce. We examine the factors shaping the job market for young people, from business conditions to structural barriers, and what might change in the months ahead. Dan Kelly, CEO of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, and Ilona Dougherty, managing director of the Youth and Innovation Project at the University of Waterloo, break down the trends and possible paths forward. We then turn to global energy markets. After major disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz linked to the Iran war, what risks do shifting oil flows pose for prices and economic stability? Rory Johnston, oil market researcher and founder of the Commodity Context newsletter, explains what has changed, what remains uncertain, and how these developments could ripple beyond the energy sector.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rory Johnston of Commodity Context provides an update on the energy sector and where he thinks WTI and Brent are going in the coming months.Commodity Context https://www.commoditycontext.com/Agenda00:00 Intro01:02 My Analysis of Oil Price06:58 Market is Complacent 09:13 Russia - Ukraine Again?15:45 China Has Stockpiled Oil18:26 Trump Visits China20:28 Iran and Venezuela a Bargaining Tactic?22:04 Why Did UAE Leave OPEC?26:57 What Happens to OPEC?29:44 Oil and CPI 33:22 Is Carney Good For Oil?37:00 My Target For Oil38:12 Wrap UpListen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/33A8EgA...Listen on Apple: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/prof...Follow Jimmy:LinkedIn:   / jimmyconnorofficial  X (@jamesconnor1999): https://x.com/JamesConnor1999X (@BloorStreetCap): https://x.com/BloorStreetCap*For business inquires, please reach out at info@bloorstreetcapital.com*This video/interview is not financial advice. This channel, Bloor Street Capital, is not responsible for the performance of its guests, sponsors or affiliates. WAIVER & DISCLAIMERIf you register for this webinar/interview you agree to the following: This webinar is provided for information purposes only. All opinions expressed by the individuals in this webinar/interview are solely the individuals' opinions and neither reflect the opinions, nor are made on behalf of, Bloor Street Capital Inc. Presenters will not be providing legal or financial advice to any webinar participants or any person watching a recorded version of the webinar. The investing ideas and strategies discussed on this webinar/interview are not recommendations to buy or sell any security and are not intended to provide any investment advise of any kind, but are made available solely for educational and informational purposes. Investments or strategies mentioned in this webinar/interview may not be suitable for your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any investment strategy discussed in this webinar/interview. All webinar participants or viewers of a recorded version of this webinar should obtain independent legal and financial advice. All webinar participants accept and grant permission to Bloor Street Capital Inc. and its representatives in connection with such recording. The information contained in this webinar/interview is current as of May 13, 2026 the date of this webinar/interview, unless otherwise indicated, and is provided for information purposes only.

Welcome back to the Majority Report On today's program: As Donald Trump's war in Iran sinks deeper into a quagmire, Jesse Watters struggles to frame it in a way that reassures his audience before their 7 o'clock bedtime. Marco Rubio says the goal of the war on Iran is to get back to the way things were before the war in Iran. Rory Johnston, oil market researcher and founder of Commodity Context, joins the program for a conversation about oil shock and the ramifications of the war in Iran. Ari Berman, national voting correspondent at Mother Jones, joins the show to discuss the Supreme Court dismantling the Voting Rights Act. Sam calls Kathy Hochul's office live on air to demand she agree to Zohran Mamdani's proposal to raise taxes 2% on the ultra-rich. You should also call Hochul at 518-474-8390.  In the Fun Half: Matt Taibbi has lost his defamation suit. K-file posts unearthed footage of Graham Platner in 2002 showing him getting kicked out of a George W. Bush rally in 2002 for screaming "don't attack Iraq". The Pod Save America guys suggest that DNC chair Ken Martin had hired a personal friend to do the 2024 autopsy and that he did such a horrible job that it couldn't be released - thus the cover up. Joe Rogan and billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya discusses taxes, and it goes exactly how you would expect. All that and more. To connect and organize with your local ICE rapid response team visit ICERRT.com The Congress switchboard number is (202) 224-3121. You can use this number to connect with either the U.S. Senate or the House of Representatives. Follow us on TikTok here: https://www.tiktok.com/@majorityreportfm Check us out on Twitch here: https://www.twitch.tv/themajorityreport Find our Rumble stream here: https://rumble.com/user/majorityreport Check out our alt YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/majorityreportlive Gift a Majority Report subscription here: https://fans.fm/majority/gift Subscribe to the AMQuickie newsletter here: https://am-quickie.ghost.io/ Join the Majority Report Discord! https://majoritydiscord.com/ Get all your MR merch at our store: https://shop.majorityreportradio.com/ Get the free Majority Report App!: https://majority.fm/app Go to https://JustCoffee.coop and use coupon code majority to get 10% off your purchase Check out today's sponsors: RITUAL: Get 25% off during your first month. Visit ritual.com/MAJORITY. WILD GRAIN: Get $30 off your first box + free Croissants in every box. Go to Wildgrain.com/MAJORITY to start your subscription. SUNSET LAKE CBD: Now through May 11th, you can save 35% on all CBD and THC Gummies when you use code Mom26 at SunsetLakeCBD.com Follow the Majority Report crew on Twitter: @SamSeder @EmmaVigeland @MattLech On Instagram: @MrBryanVokey Check out Matt's show, Left Reckoning, on YouTube, and subscribe on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/leftreckoning Check out Matt Binder's YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/mattbinder Subscribe to Brandon's show The Discourse on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/ExpandTheDiscourse Check out Ava Raiza's music here! https://avaraiza.bandcamp.

This week, our guest is Rory Johnston, a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, and, among other things, the host of the Oil Ground Up podcast.  Peter and Jackie open the show with highlights from the federal government's economic update, Polymarket bets on the Middle East conflict, and the shift in AI companies toward pay-per-use models over unlimited access. They then turn to oil markets, asking Rory: What's your take on the UAE's announcement about leaving OPEC? You recently wrote on your Commodity Context Substack that the oil market reaction has been shockingly sanguine; why? How do you interpret broader equity markets trading near all-time highs? What might upstream oil and gas investment in the Middle East look like under a fragile post-conflict scenario? With some Western countries shutting down refineries and becoming more reliant on imported products, which is now obviously a vulnerability, do you expect renewed investment in refining capacity? And in Canada's pipeline debate, with expansions and greenfield projects proposed, which direction should be prioritized: routes to the U.S. or west-coast access to tidewater and Asian markets?Content referenced in this podcast: Futurism, “Bosses Are Blowing More Money on AI Agents Than It'd Cost Them to Just Pay Human Workers” (April 27, 2026) Rory Johnson on Commodity Context, “Sanguine Strait Stoppage” (April 23, 2026) Oil Ground Up PodcastPlease review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

Markets are ripping despite $120 oil and an escalating war. Ryan and David break down why the AI boom is drowning out macro risks, whether a wave of trillion-dollar IPOs could mark the top, and how DeFi just bailed itself out after its biggest hack ever. ---

Krystal and Saagar discuss Trump orders indefinite blockade, US tries to collapse Iran economy, Trump delusional bet on oil. Dave Smith: https://x.com/ComicDaveSmith?s=20 Indya Moore: https://www.instagram.com/indyamoore/ Rory Johnston: https://www.commoditycontext.com/ To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.com Merch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/ See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Krystal and Saagar discuss Tim Dillon rips US losing narrative war, Dave Smith on Trump humiliation, actor speaks out on Ellison Hollywood merger. Dave Smith: https://x.com/ComicDaveSmith?s=20 Indya Moore: https://www.instagram.com/indyamoore/ Rory Johnston: https://www.commoditycontext.com/ To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.com Merch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/ See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rory Johnston, the “oil quant,” joins us to explain why the Hormuz crisis could become the biggest oil shock in history. Oil markets are already screaming. Supply is trapped, inventories are being drained, and the market may still be underpricing the scale of the disruption.  If the Strait stays closed, Rory says the path to $200 oil is no longer crazy. It may be the next stop. This is oil, geopolitics, inflation, and markets all colliding at once. ------

Over three-quarters of the global population has never lived through a major global energy crisis, such as those of the 1970s. In early 2026, that is about to change as the world faces the largest energy disruption in history, measured by the daily loss of oil output. This crisis won't be evenly distributed but will be felt everywhere – and is guaranteed to have ripple effects we won't see coming. How much oil remains in circulation, and what level of damage has already been inflicted on our global energy infrastructure? In this episode, Nate is joined by oil market analyst Rory Johnston to discuss how the Strait of Hormuz closure has led to the largest oil supply shock in history, and what the exact numbers and cascading effects are. He also breaks down the primary strategies countries will have to use to adapt to energy losses, including resorting to demand destruction, and what the disastrous risks are if shortages are allowed to persist. Rory also explains the lag between the closure, the real world impact of oil not being able to enter global circulation, and the market's response. Ultimately, Rory and Nate explore the impact of this situation on international trust and cooperation, and what that might mean for a global market system predicated on interdependence and free trade.  Who are the energy winners and losers in this war so far, and how are our global leaders accounting for the exponential risks of continued warfare? In what way can average people prepare for the energy shocks soon to ripple out across the globe? And lastly, if we do recover from this scenario, how might we treat these disruptions as a dress rehearsal for a future of lower material throughput by building greater resilience and interconnection at the local level? (Conversation recorded on April 23rd, 2026)     About Rory Johnston: Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers.  Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank's energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank's executives and clients, and sat on the bank's senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors.   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Rory Johnston to the show. Rory Johnston is Commodity Market Research who specializes in oil and gas. This episode delves into the complex dynamics of the current oil market crisis stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, exploring the profound implications for global energy supply and geopolitical tensions. Johnston provides a detailed analysis of the current oil market situation, highlighting that approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day typically transit through the Strait of Hormuz, with about 13 million barrels currently disrupted. Despite this massive supply shock, oil prices remain surprisingly low, which Johnston attributes to several factors, including market resilience, slow-moving commodity markets, and complex geopolitical negotiations. The discussion reveals the potential devastating consequences of prolonged strait closure, particularly for developing countries. While advanced economies might absorb price increases, many regions in the global south could experience complete fuel shortages, causing significant economic and humanitarian challenges. Johnston predicts that if the situation continues, demand destruction will become inevitable, potentially forcing prices to astronomical levels. Interestingly, the conversation also explores the nuanced motivations of key players like the United States, Iran, and Israel. Johnston suggests that Iran potentially benefits from prolonging the conflict, while the United States appears increasingly desperate to reach a resolution. He believes the crisis will likely conclude with Iran gaining some recognized control over the Strait of Hormuz. Johnston’s base case scenario anticipates the strait potentially reopening by mid-May, but warns that the market will require months to rebalance. The cumulative oil supply loss could reach over 1.2 billion barrels, fundamentally altering the global oil market’s dynamics. He emphasizes that what was previously an oversupplied market will likely transform into a tighter, potentially higher-priced environment. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:48 – Strait of Hormuz Basics 00:01:55 – Supply Rerouting Efforts 00:02:57 – Total Supply Losses 00:06:09 – Replacing Lost Production 00:08:46 – Demand Destruction Scenario 00:11:15 – Price Reaction Analysis 00:19:23 – Trump’s Market Interventions 00:23:43 – US Treasury Intervention? 00:25:24 – Regional Shortage Timelines 00:30:41 – Global South Impacts 00:32:20 – War Incentives Discussion 00:41:40 – Iran, Trump, & Israel 00:46:11 – Base Case Outlook 00:51:56 – Refinery Fire Concerns 00:55:54 – Wrap Up Guest Links: Substack: https://www.commoditycontext.com/ X: https://x.com/Rory_Johnston Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg's Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.). Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank's energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank's executives and clients, and sat on the bank's senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors.

A global oil chokepoint sits at the center of today's biggest market story — and the ripple effects are already showing up in prices, supply chains, and geopolitics.In Episode 183 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, to break down what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz and why it matters far beyond energy markets. They walk through how oil actually moves around the world, how much supply has come offline, and why restarting production takes months, not days.The conversation reveals the mechanics behind oil pricing, from futures curves to physical barrels, and explains why spot prices have surged even as headline prices lag behind. They also explore how disruptions force tough tradeoffs across global economies, with rising costs hitting some regions far harder than others.If you want to understand what drives oil prices, how supply shocks unfold, and what comes next, this episode connects the dots.Jump to:0:02 Welcome And Guest Introduction2:05 Rory's Path Into Oil Analysis6:09 Strait Of Hormuz Flow Basics10:20 Reroutes, Pipelines, And Shut-Ins20:50 The Double Blockade Explained27:20 Retaliation Risks And LNG Targets29:52 Shortages, Jet Fuel, And Demand Destruction33:20 How Oil Prices Went Negative36:56 Brent, WTI, Dated Brent, Backwardation50:08 Why Oil And Stocks Look Complacent57:22 Where To Follow Rory And ClosingConnect with Ryan:• Ryan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• Sonu on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enConnect with Rory Johnston:• Rory Johnston on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rorysjjohnston/• X: https://x.com/Rory_JohnstonQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Krystal and Saagar discuss Korea flames Israel, Eric Swalwell scandal, Norm Finkelstein on Iran war. Norm Finkelstein: https://www.amazon.com/Gazas-Gravediggers-Inquiry-Corruption-Places/dp/1682196577 Trita Parsi: https://x.com/tparsi?s=20 Rory Johnston: https://x.com/Rory_Johnston To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.comMerch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Krystal and Saagar discuss Trump blockades Hormuz Strait, negotiations break down, gas prices spike. Norm Finkelstein: https://www.amazon.com/Gazas-Gravediggers-Inquiry-Corruption-Places/dp/1682196577 Trita Parsi: https://x.com/tparsi?s=20 Rory Johnston: https://x.com/Rory_Johnston To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.comMerch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In today's episode of The Daily Brief, we cover two major stories shaping the Indian economy and global markets: 00:04   Intro 00:37   The trade breaking the rupee 10:52   India builds castles of glass 20:32   Tidbits A month-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for ~20% of global oil, has severely disrupted supply, triggering fuel shortages and panic across Asia, with India already facing an LPG crunch. While a ceasefire offers relief, the deeper issue is systemic dependence on a single chokepoint. To unpack this, we spoke with Rory Johnston, an oil market expert known for his typically bearish, adaptive view. Despite past shocks, he sees this disruption as fundamentally different and far more concerning. You can watch this episode on YouTube, or listen to it on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, or read the transcript on Substack. We also send out a crisp and short daily newsletter for The Daily Brief. Put your email here and we'll make you smart every day: https://thedailybriefing.substack.com/ Note: This content is for informational purposes only. None of the stocks, brands, or products mentioned are recommendations or endorsements.

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast, we discuss: The Billion-Barrel Supply Gap Physical Insurance and Pipelines The "Toll Booth" Strait Sanctions as a Safety Valve Wealth vs. Shortages China's Strategic Resilience The "Unilateral Taco" Scenario Long-Term Energy Optionality 

Unproduced Gulf barrels is set to rise above one billion barrels over full oil shock. Which countries will turn off the lights first? What is Canada's role in the future of energy security? This week's podcast features Canadian commodity expert Rory Johnston. Start an investment portfolio that's built to perform with Neighbourhood Holdings! For Mortgage Brokers: https://www.neighbourhood.com/looniehour-brokersFor Investors and Advisors: https://www.neighbourhood.com/looniehourRequest a consultation with IceCap Asset Management today!https://icecapassetmanagement.com/contact/✉️ Media & Real Estate Inquiries: steve@stevesaretsky.comStay up to date with our information -

The United States and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire in Iran, and energy markets responded with jubilation — at least initially. Every major Wall Street index surged on Wednesday, and U.S. oil prices fell.But the actual situation on the ground is far more ambiguous, huge questions remain about the truce, and the Strait of Hormuz is as closed today as it has been since the beginning of the war.On this episode of Shift Key, Rob is joined by Rory Johnston, a longtime oil analyst, repeat Shift Key guest, and the author of the Commodity Context newsletter. We talk about why Iran gains from extending the ceasefire, where the pressure in the global energy system is building up, and what could happen next. We also talk about why the Midwest has the cheapest gasoline in the world right now.Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap News.Mentioned:Why the Real Oil Crisis Hasn't Started YetIran's planned toll for the Strait of Hormuz is a $2.33 per ton carbon taxChina Is the Big Winner of the Iran CeasefireRory's previous appearance on Shift Key: Why Trump's Oil Imperialism Might Be a Tough Sell for Actual Oil Companies--This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by ...Lunar Energy is building the technology to turn homes into active participants in the power system. Learn more about Lunar's vision of the future at lunarenergy.com.Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In Episode 182 of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into a market environment defined by soaring oil prices, sticky inflation, and geopolitical tension and ask the big question: Who's the real skunk at the party?Inspired by Jamie Dimon's 49-page annual report, the conversation centers on inflation as the underappreciated threat to an otherwise resilient economy. Ryan and Sonu break down what WTI crude at $115 a barrel is signaling, why real yields matter more than nominal ones, and how equity markets have held up remarkably well given the backdrop of war, energy shocks, and a hawkish Fed pivot.The episode covers the March jobs report, a surprisingly solid 178,000 jobs added, and what slowing immigration means for the labor market's break-even rate. Sonu explains the shift to a low hire, low fire economy, why youth unemployment has improved sharply since September, and why manufacturing is showing early signs of life.Ryan and Sonu also discuss portfolio construction in a volatile inflation world: why the traditional 60/40 may not cut it, why small cap value is quietly outperforming, and how managed futures and real assets are earning their place in diversified models. They close with a preview of next week's special guest, oil analyst Rory Johnston of Commodity Context, and a cautious but glass-half-full outlook for the second half of the year.Key Takeaways:- Inflation, not just the war, may be the biggest long-term market risk.- Real yields falling last week was a key positive signal for equities.- The labor market break-even rate has dropped to near zero due to stalled immigration.- Youth unemployment (ages 20 to 24) has fallen sharply since September, a constructive sign.- Diversification across geographies, sectors, and asset classes is more important than ever.- Midterm years are historically volatile, but one year off the lows, markets have always been higher.Jump to:0:00 - Opening And Fast Moving Headlines 2:05 - Oil Spikes And Market Signal Check 8:25 - Real Yields, Valuations, And Midterm History 14:25 - Jamie Dimon On Inflation Risk 18:10 - Building Portfolios For Volatile Inflation 23:00 - Fed Cuts Debate And Growth Indicators 30:00 - Spring Break Stories And Travel Chaos 34:40 - Jobs Report: What Matters Most 42:23 - Layoffs Data And Youth Unemployment Reality Check 49:50 - War Timeline, Commodities Crunch, And CPI Ahead 53:10 - Next Week's Guest: Rory JohnstonConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.comHashtags:#FactsVsFeelings #Inflation #OilMarkets #StockMarket #MacroEconomics #FederalReserve #JobsReport #MarketVolatility #GeopoliticalRisk #Diversification #EnergyMarkets #InterestRates #WealthManagement #CarsonGroup #InvestingOutlook[inflation risk stock market 2026, Jamie Dimon inflation warning, WTI crude oil price surge, real yields and equity valuations, March jobs report analysis, labor market break-even rate immigration, youth unemployment trends 2026, Fed rate cut outlook 2026, managed futures portfolio diversification, small cap value stocks outperforming, midterm year market volatility history, portfolio construction inflation environment, geopolitical crisis oil prices, low hire low fire economy, Rory Johnston commodity context]

Watch the FULL EPISODE ad-free on Substack: https://coffeeandamike.substack.com/ Rory Johnston is an oil market researcher, and founder of Commodity Context. He discusses the war in Iran, the impact the loss of oil will have on the global economy, how the markets are too optimistic, and much more. PLEASE SUBSCRIBE LIKE AND SHARE THIS PODCAST!!!   Follow Me X- https://x.com/CoffeeandaMike IG- https://www.instagram.com/coffeeandamike/ Facebook- https://www.facebook.com/CoffeeandaMike/ YouTube- https://www.youtube.com/@Coffeeandamike Rumble- https://rumble.com/search/all?q=coffee%20and%20a%20mike Substack- https://coffeeandamike.substack.com/ Apple Podcasts- https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/coffee-and-a-mike/id1436799008 Gab- https://gab.com/CoffeeandaMike Locals- https://coffeeandamike.locals.com/ Website- www.coffeeandamike.com Email- info@coffeeandamike.com   Support My Work Venmo- https://www.venmo.com/u/coffeeandamike Paypal- https://www.paypal.com/biz/profile/Coffeeandamike Substack- https://coffeeandamike.substack.com/ Patreon- http://patreon.com/coffeeandamike Locals- https://coffeeandamike.locals.com/ Cash App- https://cash.app/$coffeeandamike Buy Me a Coffee- https://buymeacoffee.com/coffeeandamike Bitcoin- coffeeandamike@strike.me   Mail Check or Money Order- Coffee and a Mike LLC P.O. Box 25383 Scottsdale, AZ 85255-9998   Follow Rory X- https://x.com/Rory_Johnston?s=20 Substack- https://www.commoditycontext.com/   Sponsors Vaulted/Precious Metals- https://vaulted.blbvux.net/coffeeandamike McAlvany Precious Metals- https://mcalvany.com/coffeeandamike/

In Episode 474 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with commodity economist and energy market analyst Rory Johnston — founder of CommodityContext.com and host of the Oil Ground Up Podcast — about the mechanics and cascading consequences of the Strait of Hormuz closure, now entering its second month, and what the two most plausible resolution scenarios mean for energy prices, regional security, and the global economy. Recorded as part of an ongoing short-form series tracking the US and Israeli military campaign against Iran, the episode examines why the full physical impact of the supply disruption is only now reaching end markets across Asia, Europe, and North America, how the oil market is fracturing across both time and space, and why middle distillates — things like diesel and jet fuel — have become the epicenter of the crisis. Rory and Demetri also discuss how importing nations and companies are responding through emergency reserve releases, demand rationing, and accelerated behavioral changes. The conversation then turns to the long-term structural consequences of the shock — what it means for electrification and alternative energy adoption in Asia, for strategic stockpiling and supply chain resilience, and for non-OPEC production capacity across the US shale patch, Guyana, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina. They close by examining the geopolitical dimensions of the crisis, including the role of the Houthis, the risk of a secondary closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the possibility that Trump — having set off an open-ended conflict — may ultimately abandon long-standing US security commitments to the Gulf States, leaving the region in chaos. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you'd like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you enjoyed today's episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, Stitcher, SoundCloud, CastBox, or via our RSS Feed Writing us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Join our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at https://hiddenforces.io. Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 04/01/2026

Krystal and Saagar discuss Trump floats total Iran surrender, Trump hits rock bottom polling, gas prices spike. Rory Johnston: https://www.commoditycontext.com/about To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.comMerch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Krystal and Saagar discuss world leaders dire warning on Iran war, Israel passes execution bill for Palestinians, CNN crew assaulted by IDF, Trump ballroom secret bunker. Rory Johnston: https://www.commoditycontext.com/about To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.comMerch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The world has lived through oil shocks before - from the Suez Crisis of the 1950s to the Arab oil embargo of the 1970s - but today's turmoil raises new questions about how vulnerable global energy markets really are. What would it mean if Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed, and how does this moment compare to past crises that reshaped the global economy? For Canada - the world's fourth-largest producer of crude oil and fifth-largest producer of natural gas - the stakes are especially high. When energy markets are shaken, Canada isn't just affected; it's implicated. So what political and economic choices should be on the table right now, and could the fallout push us toward a recession? To unpack the risks and the realities, we're joined by Bob Yawger, commodity specialist at Mizuho Americas, oil-market researcher Rory Johnston, founder of the Commodity Context newsletter, and Heather Exner-Pirot, director of energy, natural resources and environment at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Oil prices have spiked following the outbreak of war in Iran, with crude oil jumping to over £75 a barrel.This is having a huge impact around the world, and is set to get worse.Megan Gibson is joined by Rory Johnston, oil market researcher and author of the Commodity Context newsletter, who argues that this scenario could lead to a global depression.LISTEN AD-FREE:

March 16, 2026 - Oil market researcher Rory Johnston of CommodityContext.com helps to explore the complexities of the current oil market. They discuss Johnston's background in commodity research, the confusion surrounding oil prices, the implications of production shut-ins, and the differences between crude and refined products. The conversation also touches on government intervention in the market, potential export restrictions, and the dislocation between physical and paper markets, providing a comprehensive overview of the challenges facing the oil industry today.

Commodity Context founder Rory Johnston joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss escalating attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and why a prolonged disruption could remove up to 20% of global oil supply and push oil to $200. The team breaks down why markets may be underpricing the duration of the conflict, how refinery shortages in Asia could ripple through global energy markets, and why Russia may ultimately benefit from the crisis. They also discuss the limits of SPR releases and U.S. shale responses, cracks forming beneath the surface in equities, why gold and defensive sectors aren't behaving like a typical risk-off environment, and how geopolitics could collide with Fed policy, inflation data, and consumer spending in the weeks ahead.

The war in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have interrupted critical oil supply chains. Now gas prices are rising. Energy analyst Rory Johnston, who writes the Substack Commodity Context, explains what an oil shock could mean for the Canadian economy, and what might happen next.

On this episode of the Energy Security Cubed Podcast, we feature an "as it happens" conversation between Joe and Rory Johnston as oil prices react to the possible end of American strikes on Iran. // Guest Bio: - Rory Johnston is a CGAI Fellow and Founder of Commodity Context // Host Bio: - Joe Calnan is VP Energy and Calgary Operations at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute // Reading recommendations: - "1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History--and How It Shattered a Nation", by Andrew Ross Sorkin: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/665634/1929-by-andrew-ross-sorkin/9780593296967 // Interview recording Date: March 9, 2026 // Energy Security Cubed is part of the CGAI Podcast Network. Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on LinkedIn. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. // Produced by Joe Calnan. Music credits to Drew Phillips.

Krystal and Saagar discuss White House doesn't rule out war draft, Fox coverup of Trump disgrace receiving soldiers, desalination plants struck. Trita Parsi: https://x.com/tparsi Rory Johnston: https://x.com/Rory_Johnston To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.comMerch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Krystal and Saagar discuss oil apocalypse, new Ayatollah chosen, Jeffrey Sachs says we are in world war, Lindsey Graham coached Bibi on convincing Trump for Iran War. Trita Parsi: https://x.com/tparsi Rory Johnston: https://x.com/Rory_Johnston To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.comMerch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rory Johnston, host of ClearComm's Oil Ground Up podcast, joins the show to analyze the "broken and volatile" state of global oil markets following the catastrophic disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Johnston details how the acute loss of 20% of global oil supply has created a massive 200-million-barrel "air gap," potentially requiring oil prices to rise even more to force total demand destruction. The discussion identifies Moscow as the primary winner of this crisis, as the previous discounts on Russian crude have evaporated and the Kremlin finds itself in a powerful new negotiating position. Listeners will learn why the pinch in crude inventories hasn't fully hit shore yet, even though jet fuel prices are already skyrocketing due to preemptive refinery slowdowns in Asia. Finally, the episode explores the deadly consequences for emerging markets facing outright energy shortages while wealthy Western nations brace for historic, "extreme pain" at the pump.

Roughly a quarter of the world's oil supply is at risk as the biggest military strike in decades unfolds in the Middle East. Rory Johnston is a geopolitical analyst who writes the Substack Commodity Context. He talks to Paul Haavardsrud about how this conflict play out for Canadian crude and the global economy.

In this episode of the Oil Ground Up Podcast, guest Rachel Ziemba joins host Rory Johnston to provide an update on the rapidly shifting landscape of U.S. economic statecraft and its impact on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. The discussion explores the unprecedented transition in Venezuela, where the U.S. has moved from an aggressive naval blockade to a tightly managed stabilization effort following the extraction of Nicolás Maduro. Regarding Iran, Ziemba examines the massive military buildup in the Middle East and evaluates the possibility of a pragmatic "deal" designed to lower global oil prices. The conversation also breaks down the convoluted sanctions regime against Russia, detailing how recent blocking measures on major firms like Rosneft and Lukoil have significantly curtailed Indian imports. Finally, the episode highlights the challenges of the "shadow fleet" and the geopolitical dance between the U.S. administration and international oil majors to secure global supply chains.

This week, MSD pivots a bit and airs the latest episode of the Oil Groundup Podcast, where host Rory Johnston welcomes Ronald Smith, a consultant with 25 years of experience analyzing the Russian oil and gas sector. The discussion delves into why Russia's industry is far more complex than other OPEC+ members due to its vast refining sector and extensive pipeline networks that crisscross continental Asia. Smith explains the geographic evolution of production, highlighting West Siberia as the current "anchor" while exploring the future potential of Arctic and East Siberian greenfields._____TerraHutton empowers junior mining companies to secure investment with immersive, interactive, and visually striking storytelling. Learn more about the TerraHutton platform ⁠⁠⁠HERE⁠⁠______This episode of Mining Stock Daily is brought to you by... Revival Gold is one of the largest pure gold mine developer operating in the United States. The Company is advancing the Mercur Gold Project in Utah and mine permitting preparations and ongoing exploration at the Beartrack-Arnett Gold Project located in Idaho. Revival Gold is listed on the TSX Venture Exchange under the ticker symbol “RVG” and trades on the OTCQX Market under the ticker symbol “RVLGF”. Learn more about the company at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠revival-dash-gold.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Vizsla Silver is focused on becoming one of the world's largest single-asset silver producers through the exploration and development of the 100% owned Panuco-Copala silver-gold district in Sinaloa, Mexico. The company consolidated this historic district in 2019 and has now completed over 325,000 meters of drilling. The company has the world's largest, undeveloped high-grade silver resource. Learn more at⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠https://vizslasilvercorp.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Equinox has recently completed the business combination with Calibre Mining to create an Americas-focused diversified gold producer with a portfolio of mines in five countries, anchored by two high-profile, long-life Canadian gold mines, Greenstone and Valentine. Learn more about the business and its operations at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠equinoxgold.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Integra Resources is a growing precious metals producer in the Great Basin of the Western United States. Integra is focused on demonstrating profitability and operational excellence at its principal operating asset, the Florida Canyon Mine, located in Nevada. In addition, Integra is committed to advancing its flagship development-stage heap leach projects: the past producing DeLamar Project located in southwestern Idaho, and the Nevada North Project located in western Nevada. Learn more about the business and their high industry standards over at integraresources.com

In this episode of the Oil Groundup Podcast, host Rory Johnston welcomes Ronald Smith, a consultant with 25 years of experience analyzing the Russian oil and gas sector. The discussion delves into why Russia's industry is far more complex than other OPEC+ members due to its vast refining sector and extensive pipeline networks that crisscross continental Asia. Smith explains the geographic evolution of production, highlighting West Siberia as the current "anchor" while exploring the future potential of Arctic and East Siberian greenfields. Listeners will learn about the immense logistical hurdles of operating in the world's largest swamp and the technological shift toward horizontal drilling and multi-stage fracking in deeper, tighter horizons. The conversation also uncovers how Russia's tax regime and ruble devaluation serve as unique economic buffers, allowing production to remain resilient despite international sanctions and price caps. Finally, Smith provides a forward-looking assessment of Russia's commitment to OPEC+ and the strategic importance of the massive Vostok Oil project in maintaining future global supply.Ronald's Substack can be found HERE

On this episode of the Energy Security Cubed Podcast, Joe talks with Rory Johnston about how oil flows are shifting given the political turmoil in Venezuela, Iran, and the U.S.-Europe relationship, and how it impacts Canada. // Guest Bio: - Rory Johnston is a CGAI Fellow and Founder of Commodity Context // Host Bio: - Joe Calnan is VP Energy and Calgary Operations at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute // Reading recommendation: - "Things Are Never So Bad That They Can't Get Worse: Inside the Collapse of Venezuela", by William Neuman: https://www.amazon.ca/Things-Never-That-They-Worse-ebook/dp/B092T93X6M - "Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion of Safety", by Eric Schlosser: https://www.amazon.ca/Command-Control-Damascus-Accident-Illusion/dp/0143125788 // Interview recording Date: January 20, 2026 // Energy Security Cubed is part of the CGAI Podcast Network. Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on LinkedIn. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. // Produced by Joe Calnan. Music credits to Drew Phillips.

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast, we discuss:   Trump's Bullish Paradox   Importance of China's SPR Why OPEC+ Hiked Production The "Oil on Water" Overhang   Venezuela and Iran 2026 Outlook   US Shale's H2 Roll-over Long term demand outlook 

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Rory Johnston. They will discuss all things crude oil, starting with the Venezuela news and what it means for markets, then moving on to Iran, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and much more https://bit.ly/4qnVjQs    

Over the weekend, the U.S. military entered Venezuela and captured its president, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife. Maduro will now face drug and gun charges in New York, and some members of the Trump administration have described the operation as a law enforcement mission.President Donald Trump has taken a different tack. He has justified the operation by asserting that America is going to “take over” Venezuela's oil reserves, even suggesting that oil companies might foot the bill for the broader occupation and rebuilding effort. Trump officials have told oil companies that the U.S. might not help them recover lost assets unless they fund the American effort now, according to Politico.Such a move seems openly imperialistic, ill-advised, and unethical — to say the least. But is it even possible? On this week's episode of Shift Key, Rob talks to Rory Johnston, a Toronto-based oil markets analyst and the founder of Commodity Context. They discuss the current status of the Venezuelan oil industry, what a rebuilding effort would cost, and whether a reopened Venezuelan oil industry could change U.S. energy politics — or even, as some fear, bring about a new age of cheap fossil fuels. Shift Key is hosted by Robinson Meyer, the founding executive editor of Heatmap, and Jesse Jenkins, a professor of energy systems engineering at Princeton University. Jesse is off this week.Mentioned: The 4 Things Standing Between the U.S. and Venezuela's OilTrump admin sends tough private message to oil companies on VenezuelaPreviously on Shift Key: The Trump Policy That Would Be Really Bad for Oil Companies--This episode of Shift Key is sponsored by …Heatmap Pro brings all of our research, reporting, and insights down to the local level. The software platform tracks all local opposition to clean energy and data centers, forecasts community sentiment, and guides data-driven engagement campaigns. Book a demo today to see the premier intelligence platform for project permitting and community engagement.Music for Shift Key is by Adam Kromelow. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast features host Rory Johnston in conversation with Andy De La Rosa, a senior field engineer with 15 years of experience in the wireline industry. De La Rosa describes wireline as the "tip of the spear" for the fracking process, utilizing specialized trucks with miles of steel conductive cable to send perforating guns downhole to fracture rock with shaped charges. Beyond the technicalities, the guests examine the wave of industry consolidation and how independent firms like Underdog Wireline survive market downturns.

Rory Johnston welcomes Arjun Murti, a partner at Veriten and former Goldman Sachs equity research analyst with 33 years of experience covering the full energy value chain. Murti discusses his Substack, SuperSpiked, explaining that the branding harkens back to the 2004 call for a super cycle, though the current framework emphasizes multi-year "super volatility" rather than a new permanent price state. The experts dive into the core short-term commodity debate, analyzing the divergence in demand forecasts between the "big three" agencies and critiquing the inconsistency between high oversupply forecasts and only short-term low price predictions. Murti firmly pushes back on the peak oil demand narrative, arguing that continued growth is illogical to deny given the massive unmet energy needs of billions globally. They explore how companies, particularly US-based EMPs, should lean into current market pessimism by prioritizing "fortress balance sheets," proactively managing costs, and protecting their returns on capital. This insightful conversation offers a differentiated, optimistic view of the sector, framing the present environment as a time for strategic risk-taking rather than capital destruction, supported by long-term belief in economic and energy growth

This episode of the Oil Ground Up, hosted by Rory Johnston, welcomes back Robert Connors of Crude Chronicles to delve into the broad historical sweep of oil market cycles. Connors explains his long-term analysis, introducing the "DOPE cycle" (Doubt, Optimism, Parabolic Euphoria), and suggests the current oil market finds itself in the early "doubt wave" phase. The discussion examines key market drivers, including Connors' thesis that rising marginal costs of non-OPEC production effectively set a higher floor for future oil prices. Furthermore, they analyze granular, higher-frequency labor data which indicates that the oil and gas labor market has "cracked" and is now "frozen," with non-farm payrolls having rolled over. Connors outlines his "oil bull in a glut full of bears" thesis, arguing that macro forces like populism and currency debasement, combined with falling non-OPEC productivity and corporate incentives focused on high returns, point toward higher prices over the long term. Listen to gain a deep historical perspective on how current OPEC management, non-OPEC supply dynamics, and structural industry changes are positioning the oil market for the next phase of the cycle.

In this episode of Oil Ground Up, host Rory sits down with June Goh, Senior Market Analyst at Sparta, for a masterclass on the physical oil market. With a background as a chemical engineer and years of experience in scheduling, trading, and strategy at Shell's Pulau Bukong refinery, June offers a uniquely nuanced and holistic understanding of how refineries operate and drive global commodity flows.June begins by demystifying commodity arbitrage, the pricing differences that physical and paper traders watch to make decisions. She explains how Sparta, a company founded "for traders, by traders," automates these complex, time-intensive calculations to provide real-time signals on whether trade routes are open or closed.June also unpacks the opaque Chinese oil market, explaining the surprising strength in demand driven by manufacturing, the government's focus on energy security through strategic stock-building, and the ongoing consolidation of its refining sector into "mega independent refineries". Finally, the episode looks ahead to India, a critical swing market where potential EU sanctions on products made from Russian oil could dramatically reshape global trade.OGU Listeners are now offered a special offer for Rory Johnston's Commodity Context Newsletter. Learn more about a subscription ⁠HERE⁠.

Today we speak with Dr. Ilia Bouchouev, former President of Koch Global Partners where he launched and managed the global derivatives trading business for over 20 years. Traditional supply and demand models no longer explain the oil market, where the correlation between fundamentals and price is now close to zero. Ilia leads Rory into a narrative about his "virtual barrel" thesis, exploring why the market now trades 60 times more oil on paper than is physically consumed daily. Ilia introduces a new paradigm for understanding price formation: modeling the "reaction function" of market participants to a host of factors beyond just fundamentals, such as macroeconomic data, flows, and even tweets. Discover the real "who's who" as Ilia debunks common misinterpretations of the Commitment of Traders report, revealing the blurred lines between hedgers and speculators.Learn about the different speculative players, from algorithmic CTAs to "quantamental" funds, and how "fast money" has proven to be the most profitable and volatile force driving short-term prices. The conversation also explores how professional traders analyze the complex futures curve, using carry trades and convexity to trade spreads rather than direction. Finally, understand the macro tug-of-war between traders using oil for recession hedging versus those using it to hedge against inflation, and gain a new framework for analyzing one of the world's most critical commoditiesOGU Listeners are now offered a special offer for Rory Johnston's Commodity Context Newsletter. Learn more about a subscription HERE.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Rory Johnston. They'll discuss Rory's view that the WTI forward curve has taken an unprecedented and bizarre shape, and much more. https://bit.ly/4jSlHOz