Podcasts about freight rates

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 6, 2025 6:13

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with the mess in the US is getting worse as 'retribution' is ramped up. Markets are getting nervous.First, the US government shutdown is masking official data that would show growing troubles in their economy. Today the Challenger job cut report for October revealed that softening consumer demand, the shutdown, AI adoption and higher tariff-taxes are driving hiring freezes and actual labour force reductions. This report said there were 153,000 layoffs in the month, the most since 2003. For all of 2025 so far, there have been more than 1 mln people laid off as counted in this survey. Hiring activity is slowing fast. The last time it was this bad was in the first Trump presidency (in 2020) but there was an excuse then. This time its all on his policies.Meanwhile, the New York Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index has eased again as US consumer demand falls away.Financial markets reacted badly to the jobs cut report, going into a more risk-averse mode. That had the effect of punishing commodity currencies as a second-level consequence.And a new shutdown pressure is about to hit the US. The FAA is restricting air traffic control services to many airports because they can't pay the controllers and rostering of the ones they can pay is a "safety issue". In true Trump style, the cutbacks will focus on states with Democrat governors. Large numbers of flights are being cancelled today.The US has added ten minerals to its Critical Minerals List. Being on the list invokes a US Section 232 legal probe for potential tariffs and trade restrictions. It is a stick used to beat its trading partners and gives Trump-supporting investors cover to profit from re-opening unprofitable US capacity.In Canada, they have released the 2025 Budget and it is a bit unusual. Rather than focusing on short-term benefits, even in the face of painful reactions to the US border restrictions, they have chosen a long-term focus to re-orient their economy away from US dependence. That will no doubt bring short-term political stresses, but is an unusual approach by a democracy. More like the Chinese approach. Carney is betting Canadian voters will have the patience for the payoff. His opposition smells an opportunity.Meanwhile across the Pacific, Taiwanese inflation ticked up from its unusually low 1.3% rate in September to 1.5% in October, a level they had been at for the prior four months.There were three central bank rate decisions out overnight and all held unchanged; Malaysia at 2.75%, Norway at 4.0%, and England also at 4.0%.In the EU, they measure their retail sales on a volume (inflation-adjusted) basis and in September it eased lower from August to be +1.0% higher than year-ago levels. The weaker September was less than expected, but the year-on-year gain was as anticipated.In Australia, their merchandise exports are rising fast again. They were up +7.9% in September from August, up +10.3% from the same month a year ago. But the surge is largely due to exports of gold which took an unusual breather in August. Mineral exports were up +9.7%, rural exports were up just +0.7%. Interestingly it was China (and Hong Kong) that drove the demand. But also exports to the US rose by almost a quarter despite the tariffs. Those tariffs have had little impact because the Americans themselves are paying them, taxing themselves.The rise of global container freight rates we noted last week has pushed on into this latest update, up +8% for the week, to take it to -39% lower than year-ago levels. Outbound cargoes from China are driving the resurgence. US importers are resigned to paying the tariff-taxes, the Europeans taking advantage of the Chinese desire to pivot away from dependence on the US. Meanwhile bulk cargo rates rose +3% in the past week to be +41 higher than year-ago levels.Another measure of global shipping's prospects is Danish shipping giant Maersk's share price. It is up +1.3% for the month, up +20% from a year ago. Much of their optimism is centered on China.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.08%, back down -7 bps from yesterday at this time to the prior day's level.The price of gold will start today at US$3979/oz, down -US$3 from this time yesterday.American oil prices are -US$1 lower from yesterday at just on US$59/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$63/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just under 56.3 USc, and down -30 bps from yesterday. That makes it at its lowest level in seven months. Against the Aussie we are holding lower at 87 AUc but that is a 12 year low. Against the euro we are down -50 bps at 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 60.9 and down -40 bps from yesterday, basically equalizing the April dip and the lowest since July 2009 and a 16 year low.The bitcoin price starts today at US$100,519 and back down -3.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

US-China trade truce cements China's growing strength

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 30, 2025 4:57

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news benchmark bond rates are on the move higher as the bond market passes its judgment on the geopolitical trade situation and the US Fed's signals.Basically they are pricing in risks where American inflation risks are not contained, and there is no real resolution to the trade tensions triggered by Trump.The Trump/Xi meeting ended with Trump claiming it was "an amazing meeting" with "all issues resolved". Markets discounted the hubris seeing the outcome actually making little practical progress. But at least it seems to be a truce. If there is any progress, it will come after further negotiations. Basically it was a photo op resulting in an invitation for Trump to visit Beijing where his ego can be stroked.The meeting brought China more time to finesse its position with the US, and more broadly, it made clear just how much stronger China has become since Xi and Trump last met. And interestingly, neither country has yet bothered to release a readout of the leaders meeting.In Japan, their central bank kept its benchmark short-term rate unchanged at 0.5% in October 2025 and extending a pause since the last hike in January. It was the market-expected decision, bit it was a split 7-2 result, with two members pushing for a rise to 0.75%, as they had at the prior meeting.Japanese share erased losses after the central bank boss gave his press conference review, but the yen dipped.In Europe, with inflation under control and its economy humming along at a modest level, but near potential, the ECB left all their settings unchanged, both interest rates (at 2.15%) and their balance sheet run-down pace. It has been a long time since they can claim their objectives are running as they would like.Meanwhile, overall economic sentiment is picking up in the EU, consistent with the improving economic data. Both industry and consumer sentiment are up in October and expectations are back to long-term averages, a position they haven't been in since early 2022.So it will be no surprise to know the Q3-2025 EU GDP rose from Q2 to be +1.5% higher than a year agoIn Germany, their October inflation rate inched lower to 2.3% from 2.4% in the prior month. But this wasn't quite as bigger move as the 2.2% rate expected. Energy costs there are falling and food prices are up only a modest +1.4% within the overall result.Globally, passenger air travel rose +3.6% in September from a year ago, with international travel up +5.1%. This was led by Asia/Pacific's +7.4% increase and trailed by North America's +2.5% rise. US domestic travel stood out with its -1.7% fall, the only region to record a shrinkage.Container freight rates rose another +4% last week, as China-USWC, and China-EU rates picked up notably. Overall they are now -41% lower than year-ago levels.Bulk freight rates fell -4.9% last week to now be +42% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.10%, up +7 bps from yesterday after the Fed announcement and after the US-China talks. The price of gold will start today at US$3999/oz, up +US$6 from this time yesterday.American oil prices are unchanged from yesterday at just on US$60.50/bbl, with the international Brent price just on US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 57.5 USc, and down -30 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 87.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.1 and down -30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,076 and down another -2.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Financial markets gird for bubble risk fallout

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 16, 2025 5:18

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that while the 'real economy' is barely able to expand - but is in fact doing so modestly - there are two extreme bubbles brewing - in AI firm valuations, and in precious metals valuations. One or both will end sometime, and the losses will be extraordinary when they do, likely hurting the 'real economy' when it happens. But who knows when? Financial market risk aversion is in evidence today in the bond markets.There are other stresses of course (geopolitical, retribution stupidity, commodity distortions, climate, etc.) and they have to play out at the same time.But first in the US, their economic data is dominated today by the October version of the Philadelphia Fed factory survey for the important Pennsylvania rust belt region. That reported an unexpected sharp slowdown in activity and a six month low in this index. If there is a silver lining however, it is that new order levels picked up from what were very low levels. Not helping however is that firms are again reporting higher than average cost increases. Most firms reported struggles passing on those higher costs in higher prices.American house-building activity has been struggling for the past five months but sentiment in the industry picked up in October somewhat, mainly on the expectation that lower interest rates would help. It's a sentiment improvement,not an activity improvement however.Yesterday we noted slightly improved factory sentiment in the New York state area. But today we can report that their services sector is in a tough spot, in fact its lowest since the pandemic-affected January 2021. It is glum there and firms are not expecting much improvement.In Canada, their small business sentiment has turned negative too.But Canada's housebuilding sector is on a roll, reporting strong housing starts again in September and well above what analysts were expecting. That is now five of the past six months with elevated housing start data.Across the Pacific in Japan, core machinery orders, excluding the large volatile sectors, fell -0.9% in August from July to ¥8.9 tln but it was much less than the sharp -4.6% drop in July. Analysts had expected a small gain however.And staying in Japan, it now looks like Sanae Takaichi will in fact become prime minister after more coalition talks.In France, the Macron-allied new prime minister has survived a no-confidence vote (on the second attempt) bringing some stability to their political mess.In Australia, their September jobless rate ticked higher to 4.5% and their jobs growth, especially full-time jobs growth, came in lower than expected.For the first time since June when rates started falling fast, global container freight rates rose last week, overall by +2%. In the meantime they had fallen -52%, so that suggests these costs may be bottoming out. They are now -50% lower than year-ago levels. There were modest rises everywhere, even in outbound China rates. There will be activity trying to front-run potentially new tariffs by the US, and there is Christmas-goods flows starting too.Bulk cargo rates rose a net +2% last week too, but in between it was unusually volatile. These latest levels are now +12% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 3.97% and down -8 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4273/oz, up +US$77 from yesterday and far away a new ATH. Silver is up to just under US$54/oz and an ATH. Platinum is roaring too, now at US$1732/oz and up +71% from the start of the year and approaching its 2011 highs.American oil prices are down -US$1 at just on US$57.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$61/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.3 USc, and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +60 bps at 88.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.8, up +10 bps from yesterday. Also, see this.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,652 and down another -2.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Markets recoil with scepticism

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 25, 2025 5:16

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that currency markets, bond markets and equity markets all react to unexpectedly 'strong' US data releases overnight, much of it sceptical. In fact we are getting rising risk aversion questioning its believability.US initial jobless claims came in last week at just over 180,000, and less than expected, and less than seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.728 mln people on these benefits, but still +100,000 more than at the same time last year.And new orders for manufactured durable goods rose marginally in August from July, following two consecutive monthly decreases. That puts them a good +5.4% higher than year-ago levels. But non-defence, non-aircraft capital goods orders were low in the month, up just +1.6% from a year ago and it seems clear boardrooms are not enthusiastic investors at this point.This data is far more positive than the regional Fed factory survey are picking up, so we will need to wait before we conclude reshoring is actually happening.The September factory survey from the Kansas City Fed described only very modest changes in factories in their region. Order backlogs reduced as did new orders for export.In fact, US exports fell -1.4% in August in updated trade data, while imports fell -5.6%. That narrowed their trade deficit but only to the level it was in June, and not materially different to August a year ago. So it is hard to see much 'progress' here in shrinking this.But, the final US GDP result for the June quarter came in with a huge revision higher, up +3.8% from a year ago. This was apparently driven by a decrease in imports, and an increase in consumer spending, offset by decreases in investment and exports. There was a one-off revision to the consumer spending data in this release which twisted things somewhat. Again, this data is hard to reconcile with the real-time high-frequency data that we saw in the second quarter, but this is what they are reporting.If the Fed accepts this GDP data, rate cuts there are likely pushed further away.Meanwhile, August data on existing home sales dipped in August.In Canada, they reported average weekly earnings for July and they were up +3.3% to C$1,308 from a year ago, following a +3.6% increase in June.And staying in Canada, their federal government has instructed Canada Post to end door-to-door postal delivery.In China, the yuan has appreciated to the highest level in nearly 10 months against the American dollar as concerns over frictions between the world's two largest economies subside and China's economic growth prospects remain steady.In Taiwan, after four consecutive months of decreases, their reported retail sales that rose in August from a year ago. This data is modest compared to their booming industrial sector as we noted yesterday.And perhaps we should note that the Swiss central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0% in an overnight review. Switzerland has inflation running at just +0.2% pa.Container freight rates fell faster last week, down -8% for the week to be a massive -55% lower than year-ago levels. And it was again outbound rates from China that is driving this retreat. But bulk freight rates actually rose again last week by +2.9% to be +10.5% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3739/oz, up just +US$6 from yesterday. Silver is on the mover however, up approaching US$45/oz.American oil prices are little-changed at just under US$65/bbl, with the international Brent price still just over US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.6 USc and down another -50 bps from yesterday and that is its lowest level since mid-April. Against the Aussie we are down just -10 bps at 88.2 AUc and near a three-year low. Against the euro we are actually unchanged at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 65.2, and down another -30 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,928 and down -4.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at just over +/- 2.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

The NZD is hammered

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 18, 2025 4:54

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the New Zealand dollar has been re-rated sharply lower overnight, although to be fair only back to levels it was at in April. US benchmark interest rates are rising but the new weaker New Zealand economy is expected to drive the OCR lower than earlier expected.But first in the US, initial jobless claims came in lower than expected at +194,500, a decrease of 10,400 from the prior week when an increase of about that was indicated by seasonal factors. There are now 1.75 mln people on these benefits, +81,000 more than at this time last year.Meanwhile, the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) retreated in August. A retreat was expected but it came in more than twice the expected decline. That means the LEI fell by -2.8% over the six months between February and August, a faster rate of decline than its -0.9% contraction over the previous six-month period. They noted persistently weak manufacturing new order levels and consumer expectations, and warn of increased headwinds ahead.But it is not weak everywhere. The Philly Fed factory survey for September picked up a modest rise in new orders. But firms in the region remain under sharp price pressure unable to pass on the higher prices they are paying.On the farm, the giant American soybean crop is about ready for harvest, and farmers are glum. The Chinese aren't buying and the Washington isn't coming to the rescue with subsidy support. Prices are back to 2016-2018 levels and the rural concern is palpable.In Financial markets, there was a notable less well-supported US Treasury inflation protected (TIPS) bond tender today that resulted in a median yield of 1.65% plus CPI inflation, compared to 1.93% plus CPI at the prior equivalent event three months ago.There were more central bank rate reviews overnight. Taiwan kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.0%. They have an inflation target of 2.0% and their CPI is currently running at 1.6%. Norway cut theirs by -25 bps to 4.0% in what has been called a "hawkish cut". They have inflation at 3.0% with their target at 2.0%. And the Bank of England held theirs at 4% as expected. They have inflation at inflation at 3.8% when their target is 2%. South Africa held at 7%. Inflation there is 3.3% with a preferred rate of 3.0%.China announced that its Boeing and Airbus-competing C919 aircraft has now received more than 1000 orders, mostly domestic but some international orders as well.Australian labour markets stumbled somewhat in August, falling -5,400 when a small +22,000 rise was expected. And the detail is even less positive because full-time employment fell by -40,900 to 10,077,300 people while part-time employment rose by +35,500 to 4,549,200 people. None of these changes were enough to materially change their 4.2% unemployment rate.Container freight rates fell -6% last week from the prior week with all the weakness coming from outbound rates from China. But bulk freight rates rose +3.4% last week to be +14.6% higher than year ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.11%, up +4 bps from yesterday at this time in a steady rise. The price of gold will start today at US$3,643/oz, down -US$15 from yesterday's post Fed dip.American oil prices are down -US$1 at just under US$63.50/bbl, with the international Brent price firmish just under US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.8 USc and down -90 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -70 bps at 88.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -50 bps at 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66, down -50 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,553 and up +1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

US economic prospects turn darker

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 11, 2025 8:12

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news away from the guns and hatred consuming the US at present. Our challenge is to keep it out of our society.Markets had been waiting for the American August CPI inflation data and it came in higher, although no more than expected. It rose to 2.9% in August, the highest since January, after holding at 2.7% in both June and July. Prices rose at a faster pace for food (3.2%) and energy costs rose for the first time in seven months. On a monthly basis, the CPI went up 0.4%, the most since January, above forecasts of 0.3%. Rents rose 0.4%, the largest upward pressure. On the other hand, core inflation remained steady at 3.1%, the same as in July and at February's peak, while core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, matching July's pace and market forecasts.In a stable world, this level of inflation would not bring market expectations of a Fed rate cut next week, but there are widespread expectations of one anyway. And that is because their labour market is weakening quite fast now.Initial jobless claims in the US came in sharply higher last week at +263,000 s.a. a four year high and well above the expected high 235,000. In actual terms they rose +204,500 when a solid end-of-summer-holiday seasonal decrease was expected. There are now 1,815,000 on these benefits, +110,000 more that at the same time last year.Also getting much worse much faster is the US Federal government finances. The US Budget Statement was expected to hold at a very high -US$290 bln monthly deficit, but it has blown out to -US$345 bln in August. And this is after collecting US$30 bln in tariff-taxes in the month, US$165 bln so far in the fiscal year.Whatever way you look at it, the US economy is being mismanaged on a massive scale. Too much inflation, too little job creation, too large tax avoidance by the uber-wealthy, and self-imposed tariff-taxes on themselves. And unfortunately their social programs are making things worse at a fundamental level too.New independent analysis shows that the long-held view that American demographics would remain very positive to the end of the century have suddenly turned. Now US deaths will exceed births by 2031, far faster than expected. And the deaths will rise quicker until 2055 when they will match immigration. And these estimates are before the Kennedy/Trump health mistakes which will undoubtedly speed up deaths. And the Trump heavy-handed immigration crackdowns that will likely mean the immigration assumptions are far too optimistic. If demographics are destiny, the destiny of the US looks grim and we can no longer hold the assumption that it will be a major power by 2100. That is a sharp change from the demographic outlook just a few years ago.New data out in Canada shows Canadians are wealthier with an increase of over a quarter of a trillion dollars to C$17.9 tln, the seventh consecutive quarterly increase. This wealth accumulation happened despite headwinds of global trade pressures and a weakening economy. Per capita GDP is now C$76,100 (NZ$92,100).Across the Pacific in Japan's producer prices there rose +2.7% in the year to August, up from a marginally revised +2.5% increase in the previous month. This data doesn't really add stress or new factors for Japan. A year earlier their PPI rose at a 2.6% rate.In China, new vehicle sales recovered in August, up +10.1% after the unexpected -10.7% fall in July. Total vehicle sales are expected to grow +4.7% in 2025 to almost 33 mln units from 31.4 mln in 2024, with the NEV sector surging +24% to 16 mln units. That will keep it almost twice the size of the US vehicle market. China's car market is a global goliath. (The US vehicle market is running at 16.1% mln annual sales, a dip in August from July.)In Europe, the European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged, with the deposit facility at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, all as expected. Inflation remains close to the 2% medium-term target, and the outlook is broadly unchanged from June. New staff projections see headline inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025, easing to 1.7% in 2026 before rising slightly to 1.9% in 2027.Occasionally we check in with what is happening in Turkey, an authoritarian regime that has made massive mistakes with capricious monetary policy moves, and is paying the price with tough consequences. The Central Bank of Turkey cut its benchmark interest rate overnight by a surprisingly large -250 bps to 40.5% in its September meeting, its lowest since 2023. The move follows signs of slowing underlying inflation in August, though food and services prices continue to pressure inflation. Domestic demand remains weak.In Australia, consumer inflation expectations rose to 4.7% in the September survey by the Melbourne Institute, from August's five-month low of 3.9%. The increase came as stronger domestic demand raised concerns about renewed inflationary pressures, with household consumption proving resilient in Q2-2025. This is the sort of news the RBA will not welcome. No rate cut is priced in for September 30 but one is for November 4, although that might get reassessed now.Global container freight rates fell -3% last week from the prior week on very much weaker outbound rates from China to Europe. Interestingly, outbound rates from China to the USWC actually rose last week by +6%. (Year-on-year comparisons are still affected by last year's Red Sea stress.) Bulk freight rates roise +8% over the past week to be +8.5% higher than year ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now on 4.00%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,635/oz, down -US$10 from yesterday.American oil prices are down -US$1 at just over US$62.50/bbl with the international Brent price is similarly lower at just on US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just over 59.7 USc and up another +20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 89.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.8, unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$114,552 and up +0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low, at just over +/- 0.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Risk aversion fades, risk taking swells

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 28, 2025 4:28

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets have brushed off the Nvidia result and chosen to extend their risk appetite. The S&P500 is at another new record high. But bond markets aren't so sure this is justified.In the real world, US initial jobless claims were little-changed last week from the prior week, both in actual terms and from what seasonal factors would have suggested. There are now 1,945,000 people on these benefits, +101,500 more than at the same time last year.The American GDP Q2-2025 GDP was revised slightly higher in its second estimate than the first mainly due to a slightly smaller decline in investment.Pending home sales fell -0.4% in July from June, extending the -0.8% drop in the prior month to mark the first back-to-back contraction since January. They were down -0.7% from a year ago as the American housing market seems in a long-term slow decline having never really recovering from the pandemic period.The Kansas City Fed factory survey was stable overall but that was despite a fall in export orders and elevated cost pressures. survey. There was a modest rise in August from July, but most metrics are still lower than a year ago.Earlier today there was a much less supported US Treasury seven year bond auction (-11% less bid value) but the median yield fell to 3.87% from 4.06% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In Canada they reported that average weekly earnings were up +3.7% to C$1,302 in June, following a +3.3% increase in May.In India, industrial production rose in July and the pace picked up by more than expected. The expansion was +3.5% when +2.1% was anticipated, and more than double the pace of June's +1.5%.In Europe, despite their inflation pressures being modest and on target, settling it at 2.0%, the overnight release of the ECB minutes revealed a split among policy makers on how to assess future risk. They left their policy rate unchanged despite some thinking rates need to go lower to support growth and counter US tariffs, while others thinking the risk of future inflation is rising. Despite that split review, in the end the decision to hold rates unchanged was unanimous.Global container shipping freight rates fell -6% last week from the week before to be -60% lower than year-ago levels, although that year-ago base reflected unusual stress in the Red Sea shipping lanes. Once again, the recent falls are all to do with outbound trade from China. Interestingly, Chinese shippers are now targeting Australia and New Zealand, along with the Middle East because of the higher rates they can get in these alternative trades. Bulk cargo rates are little changed week-on-week but are up nearly +20% from a year ago.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.21%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,415/oz, up +US$20 from yesterday.American oil prices are little-changed at US$64/bbl with the international Brent price is still just under US$68/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.9 USc and up +30 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 66.4, and up a net +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,596 and up +0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

1261. #TFCP - Cracking the Code to Faster, Smarter Freight Rates!

live heart pl newsletter automation smarter transportation board members logistics customer success sales strategies denim cracking the code tms rfp chief sales officer transportation industry trucking business freight rates

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 13, 2025 29:36 Transcription Available

What if you could quote thousands of lanes in minutes, respond to shippers in under two, and still have time to grow your customer base? Let's welcome Tabi Connect's Dan Hellmann back to the show to explain how quoting automation, RFP modules, and lightning-fast rate delivery are changing the game for freight brokers and carriers! We discuss why speed is your biggest competitive advantage in today's market, how data-driven sales build trust with shippers, and why honest onboarding beats over-promising every time. Dan covers more topics to help you automate smarter, execute flawlessly, and deliver more value than the competition, so keep tuning in! About Dan Hellmann With a career spanning 19 years in the transportation and logistics industry, Dan Hellmann is a dynamic and results-driven leader. Currently serving as the Chief Sales Officer at Tabi Connect, he has been at the forefront of the company's success for the past 3.5 years. In this role, Dan leads sales, marketing, account management, and customer success, driving the company's growth and ensuring client satisfaction. Dan is deeply involved in industry associations, serving as a Board Member for the Logistics and Transportation Association of North America (LTNA), an active member of the Young Executive Committee for the Transportation Intermediaries Association, and serves as a Board Member for the Denver Transportation Club. A true veteran in the brokerage field, Dan Hellmann has accumulated invaluable experience in sales leadership, P&L management, and strategy. His journey includes successfully starting up a brokerage for a former customer, steering it to an impressive $50 million in revenue. Dan brings a wealth of knowledge and practical insights to industry events. His passion for innovation, strategic thinking, and commitment to excellence make him a compelling voice in the world of transportation and logistics. Connect with Dan LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-hellmann-ctb/ Email: DanH@tabiconnect.com

Freight volume data shows spreading US weakness

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 31, 2025 6:34

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news today is the day the US has promised to levy arbitrary tariffs but still no word about how Australia and New Zealand will fare. It's not the end of August 1 until later tomorrow in the US. In the meantime, Mexico has been the latest country to be granted a 90 day extension.Meanwhile, initial US jobless claims fell to 193,100 in the fourth week of July, just marginally more than seasonal factors would have accounted for. There are now 2.016 mln people on these benefits, +82,000 more than the 1.934 mln in the same week a year ago.US-based employers announced 62,075 job cuts in July, up +29% from June's 47,999 and up +140% from 25,885 announced in the same month last year. July's job cuts were also well above average for a July month since the pandemic.The US PCE price index rose +0.3% in June from May, the largest increase in four months, following an upwardly revised +0.2% gain in May. Prices for goods were up +0.4%, and prices for services rose +0.2%. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy, also went up +0.3%, also its strongest monthly gain in four months. Year on year, the PCE was up +2.6%, the core PCE up +2.8%. With more broad tariffs ahead, plus firms now far less willing to absorb these burdens, the future track of US inflation looks like it has only upside.Personal disposable incomes rose +1.7% from June a year ago in the US, personal spending was up +2.1%.In the industrial heartland, the Chicago PMI contracted much less in July, after a good rise in new order levels. But it is still contracting, only slower.Canada may be being disrespected by its bully southern neighbour via tariff threats and economic pressure, but its economy is showing remarkable resilience. In May, their GDP eased just -0.1% while in June it rose +0.1%. This is a far better result for them than they may have expected given the taunts and penalties they have had to absorb. Unlike Mexico, they aren't getting any delay in US tariff changes.As expected, the Bank of Japan held its policy rate unchanged yesterday at 0.5%. The decision was unanimous, reflecting the central bank's cautious approach to policy normalisation.Japanese industrial production surged in June, and in a quite unexpected way. Year-on-year it was up +4.0%, month-on-month up +1.7%. A small retreat was expected.The official July PMIs for China were released yesterday, showing their factory sector contracting at a faster rate and their service sector expansion all but evaporating. These results are not disastrous, but they will worry Beijing all the same. The vibrancy they recently re-found isn't lasting.There were some very positive Australian retail trade data released yesterday. And oddly, this is the final data released for retail sales as they shift to their "Monthly household spending indicator" series. The final data for retail trade brought a +4.9% year-on-year burst in value terms, +1.5% in volume terms. These levels were far better than any analyst was expecting. The contrast with New Zealand is rather stark.There was a marked slowing in the growth of air travel in June, up +2.6% in June and half the +5.1% rise in the same month a year ago. The North American market was flat, but the Asia Pacific international market rose +7.2% and an outsized gain.The June air cargo market expanded little overall, up +0.8% from a year ago. But that was because of a sharp retreat in cargo volumes in North America (down -8.3% for domestic cargoes, down -6.1% in international cargoes). Elsewhere international cargo volumes rose +1.6% and Asia Pacific volumes were up +8.3%.Container freight rates were little changed last week (-1%) with outbound rates from China the weakest segment. From a year ago these rates are now -56% lower although to be fair they were unusually high a year ago on Red Sea security problems. Bulk freight rates fell -5.3% over past week from the prior week to be +13% higher than year-ago levels.It's probably worth noting that after the large fall in the copper price we noted yesterday, there has been no bounce - it is still falling.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.36%, down -1 bp from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,294/oz, up +US$17 from yesterday.American oil prices have slipped back -US$1.50 at just on US$69/bbl with the international Brent price is now at just on US$71.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar was at 58.9 USc and and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 91.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.4, up +20 bps from yesterday helped by a rise against the yen which fell back after their central bank meeting.The bitcoin price started today at US$117,775 and essentially unchanged again (+US$9) from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/-1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Equities rise globally as earnings stay resilient

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 17, 2025 5:11

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Canada has conceded it has lost its dairy dispute with New Zealand.But first in the US, actual initial jobless claims in the US rose sharply to 261,000 from the previous week but that was less than seasonal factors would have suggested. There are now 2,017,000 people on these benefits, +4% more than year ago levels and the most in four months.After three down months, the Philly Fed factory survey recovered in July. New order intakes rose. But also rising was the prices firms paid for their inputs and what they charged their customers. 'Safe' behind a tariff wall, these firms are showing the expected reactions, ones that will make them internationally uncompetitive.Also rising were US retail sales in June. This also came after two retreating months, and was not expected. Year on year these sales are up +3.7% of which car sales rose +5.3%. Other than vehicles, the rise was +3.3% and still quite positive. However 2.7% of that can be accounted for by CPI inflation.US factory activity and retail sales may be rising but business inventories are not. And that is a resilient sign.One sector not showing any resilience is their house-building sector. The NAHB sentiment survey shows it remains at a low ebb, down near its 2022 lows. Affordability issues remain at the heart of the sector's woes, and they are hardly likely to improve as tariff-taxes flow through.In Canada, they have quietly conceded they have lost their dairy access dispute with New Zealand and will now honour the CPTPP treaty agreements. Although the US is not party to this dispute, the MFN clauses in its USMCA Agreement probably mean wider access for others to the Canadian dairy market.Across the Pacific and continuing its yoyo pattern, Singapore's June exports jumped. In fact they rose +14.3% from May to be +13% higher than year-ago levels.In Australia, their June labour market softened. They were expecting a jobs gain of +20,000 but only got +2,000. Their jobless rate ticked up to 4.3%. As a result, financial market pricing for an RBA rate cut on August 12 have risen.And inflation expectations in Australia are staying stubbornly high - although not as high in July as they were in June. The Melbourne Institute's Survey of Consumer Inflationary and Wage Expectations came in with inflation expectations at 4.7% which was down from June's 5.0% but apart from that still its highest since mid 2023. Expected wage growth fell slightly in July and remains relatively weak.A softening labour market but very high inflation expectations (and a frothy real estate market), will all make the RBA's assessments very difficult.More globally, container freight rates fell -2.6% last week from the prior week to be -55% lower than year-ago levels. But those year-ago levels were unusually boosted by Red Sea tensions. Currently, outbound rates from China are the weak spots in this market. Bulk cargo rates rose a sharp +34% last week to be back to year-ago levels. To be fair these current overall levels are basically 'average' over the past 35 years (so in inflation-adjusted terms they are very low).The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.47%, little-changed from yesterday at this time. Wall Street is firmer today with the S&P500 up +0.6%, enough to claim a new record high. Good corporate earnings are driving the mood.The price of gold will start today at US$3,336/oz, down -US$18 from yesterday at this time.American oil prices are up +US$1 at US$67.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just under US$69.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.3 USc and down -25 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.2, and unchanged.The bitcoin price starts today at US$119,100 and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest, at just on +/-1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Silly season sentiment elevated

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 10, 2025 4:27

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news commodity currencies are in favour at the end of the week as global commodity prices get a halo boost from the taxes Americans are prepared to pay for commodities. Risk is in favour; 'greed is good' and blindness to the downside possibilities seems wilful. It helps that heavyweight investors have gone on their summer vacations.But first, US initial jobless claims came in at 240,800 last week, an increase and a bit more than seasonal factors would have expected. There are now 1.91 mln people on these benefits, +111,000 or +6.2% or more than at this time last year. That is their highest level since 2021.There was a smaller US Treasury 30yr bond auction earlier today and if it wasn't for the SOMA activity from the New York Fed, demand would have been lighter than at the prior event. In the end, it delivered a median yield of 4.84%, little-changed from the 4.80% at the prior equivalent event.In Japan, their June producer prices were up +2.9% from a year ago, a notable easing from the +4.3% rise in March. In fact, from May, Japanese producer prices slipped marginally. From early 2022, there has been an overall trend of these price increases easing and they may be now heading into a bit of a deflationary period.China's vehicle sales grew by almost +14% in June from the same month a year ago following an +11% rise in May. Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) surged more than +26% in June, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. In the first half of 2025, total vehicle sales climbed +11%, while NEV sales jumped more than +40%. They are on target for NEV sales to exceed 16 mln units - which is more than all vehicle sales in the US. China is on track for sales of 33 mln for the full year, easily the world's largest vehicle market.The Korean central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% as expected. It last cut its rate in May.Australian business turnover data has revealed that May activity was softish, recording a small slip from April. May was held back by a fall in their mining sector. But from a year ago, May 2025 was overall +5.9% higher on a current price basis.Container freight rates fell -5% last week from the prior week, almost all on outbound cargoes from China. Overall rates are now half year-ago levels, although to be fair those year-ago levels were juiced up by the Red Sea crisis. Bulk cargo rates were little changed this week but are -25% lower than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.35%, and up +1 bp from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,317/oz, and up +US$9 from yesterday.American oil prices are down -US$2 at US$66.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just over US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.3 USc, up +25 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 51.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.7 and +20 bps firmer than yesterday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$113,549, a record high and up +4.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/-2.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

The Dynamics of Tanker Chartering and Freight Rates in Oil Markets

Oil Ground Up

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 17, 2025 47:19

This conversation delves into the critical role of tankers in the global oil market with shipping analyst Jeff McGee of Makai Marine. Him and Rory explore the importance in transporting crude and refined products using the tanker market. The discussion covers the various types of tankers, the role of ship brokers in chartering, and the dynamics of freight rates influenced by supply and demand. Additionally, the conversation highlights major trade routes and the significance of the Baltic Exchange in benchmarking freight rates, providing a comprehensive overview of the tanker market's complexities and challenges. In this conversation, Jeff discusses the complexities of the tanker market, focusing on the World Scale and Time Charter Equivalent metrics that help standardize freight rates. He explains how oil market dynamics, including geopolitical risks and bunker costs, influence tanker operations and freight rates. The discussion also delves into the concept of the 'dark fleet,' a shadow market that operates under different conditions than the mainstream tanker market, highlighting its inefficiencies and potential impacts on global shipping.

dynamics tankers oil markets chartering freight rates jeff mcgee

Land Line Now, June 10, 2025

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 10, 2025 49:58

Freight activity tends to slow down a bit as the months get warmer, so what's behind the recent increase in freight entering the market? Plus, you've heard the complaint from members of the public or an elected official – that truckers don't pay their “fair share” of the cost of our highways. But what do the cold, hard numbers tell us? Then, breaking down the merits of a traffic ticket service. And finally, how a love of driving led a bus driver to a career in trucking. 0:00 – Signs of strength in the freight market 10:12 – Are truckers paying their “fair share” of highway costs? 24:48 – Traffic ticket services 39:16 – Bus driver-turned-trucker shares her story

signs trucks traffic semi bus trucker trucking bus drivers freight citation ooida freight rates

Land Line Now, June 6, 2025

congress louisiana trucks semi convoy trucker trucking mccall freight truck drivers troopers flatbed ooida freight rates

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 6, 2025 50:00

Troopers in Louisiana say they just busted up another staged crash scheme targeting truckers – and Congress has a plan to stop future criminals from trying something similar. Then, on the 20th anniversary of Land Line Now's very first episode, we take a deep dive on another debut – “Convoy” by C.W. McCall, which hit the airwaves on June 6, 1975, and spurred a decade-long trucker craze. And the latest data on the freight market foretells more rough days ahead. 0:00 – Another staged crash scheme? 10:12 – 50th Anniversary of “Convoy” debut: Part I 24:48 – 50th Anniversary of “Convoy” debut: Part II 39:16 – Freight market data foretells more rough days ahead

Checking unbridled power

Play Episode Listen Later May 29, 2025 4:48

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the legality of the US tariff taxes is now under court scrutiny.But first, US initial jobless claims rose +10,000 last week from the prior week to 212,000 when seasonal factors suggested it should have fallen -7,000. (The headline number was +240,000.) There are now 1.78 mln people on these benefits, +120,000 more than this time last year or a +7% rise.There was an update to the Q1-2025 US GDP growth rate out overnight, and it was little-changed, still showing a stall. Now they say it contracted at an annualised rate of -0.2% in the quarter, a slight improvement from the initial estimate of a -0.3% decline. However, it is still the first quarterly GDP contraction in three years. The slight improvement was driven by stronger-than-expected investment, which partially offset weaker consumer spending and a larger-than-anticipated drag from trade.The same data showed corporate profits fell sharply in the period and could continue to be squeezed this year by higher costs from tariffs.Pending home sales retreated an outsized -6.3% in April from March, far more than the -0.9% drop anticipated by analysts and fully erasing the revised +5.5% increase in March. The industry blames "high interest rates".The US Treasury 7yr bond auction today was supported a bit better than the prior event, resulting in a median yield of 4.14% compared to the 4.07% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In a US Federal Court, the Trump Administration lost a key case challenging the imposition of his "Liberation Day" tariffs, where it was claimed the President didn't have the authority to impose them without Congressional approval. The issue will end up in the US Supreme Court soon for 'final' resolution. If it doesn't go Trump's way in his stacked court, things could get 'interesting'.In Japan, consumer sentiment is still trending down after peaking in March 2024. But the May survey recorded a bounce back from the unusual drop in April.In Australia, capex investment is not growing, especially for plant and equipment. And that is a hesitation in the rising trend that started in 2014 and continued until September 2024. The recent Q1-2025 data softness seems to be embedding.Globally, passenger air travel demand was up +8.0% with international travel demand rising almost +11%. In the Asia/Pacific region it was up more than +14%. Wanderlust is back fully after the pandemic period.Air cargo demand was up +5.8% in April, up +10% in the Asia/Pacific region, no doubt boosted by the rush to beat US tariffs.Meanwhile, container freight rates rose +10% last week from the week before to be -41% lower than year-ago levels. Trade uncertainty surrounding 'new' tariff-taxes is causing the current scramble to get goods moved. Bulk cargo rates dipped -2.5% in the past week however.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.43%, and down -5 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,322/oz, and up +US$26 from yesterday.Oil prices are down -US$1 at just under US$61/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now at US$64/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.9 USc, a +30 bps rise from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at just under 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 52.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 68 and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$106,229 and down -1.1% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Tuesday.

Markets recoil on tariff stupidity

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 3, 2025 6:00

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the all bets are probably off on how 2025 will turn out as the cascading impacts from the Trump tariffs surge around the world.We were anticipating we would be reporting some tariff retaliation news today, and there is some. But the most significant retaliation is from financial markets. It is comprehensive.So far there are no substantive retaliations announced, only threats to do so from China, Japan, South Korea, and the EU. But Canada has hit some US cars with a matching 25% tariff. Some countries - like New Zealand and Australia - have said they won't retaliate, but they tend to be the ones who only got slapped with a 10% rate on their exports. For them it is wise to see how much will be effectively paid by US consumers, and in NZ's case it will likely be most of it. Most of the impact on us will come from second-effect reactions in other trading partners.Perhaps most galling were the 32% tariffs Trump slapped on Taiwan.Back to the economic data releases, US jobless claims were unchanged last week from the week before and only marginally higher than year-ago levels. There are now 2.07 mln people on these benefits, about +7% above year-ago levels. But that is their highest since November 2021.There was a surge in job cuts reported in March, by far the highest since the early pandemic reaction. Although most are public service cuts, it seems unlikely they will be the only ones in the months ahead.The employment component of today's ISM services PMI was unusually weak, and the overall index tumbled to its weakest since July 2024. It was barely expanding in March. The internationally-benchmarked S&P Global/Markit version had its big drop in February, and the latest March version records a small bump up from then. But it reported cost inflation up to an 18-month high.Attention now turns to tomorrow's March non-farm payrolls where a most rise of +135,000 is anticipated.US exports rose in March as part of the repositioning in anticipation of tariffs and retaliation. But an interesting detail is that of the +US$8.3 bln rise to US$278.5 bln for the month, US$3.2 bln of that was the export on gold. US imports held very high for a second month at record levels. (Imports of gold decreased -US$1.3 bln. The market chatter was that gold was flowing into the US, especially from London. Apparently that was just rumour.)Across the Pacific in China, the Caixin services PMI rose in March and to its best level of the year. This was notably stronger than the official services PMI. New orders rose the most in three months, driven by increases in domestic demand, supported by a broad improvement in demand conditions. We see that in improved Chinese buying in the dairy auction.Australia is reporting sharp drops in job vacancies. The latest data is for February, and the levels reported are almost -10% lower than year ago levels, down for that -5% in the prior 90 days alone. Almost all the decreases are in the private sector.Container freight rates slipped -2% last week from the week before, to be -26% lower than year ago levels. However they are still +55% higher than pre-pandemic levels.Bulk freight rates fell -2.5% from last week to be -8% below year-ago levels. Basically, these rates are back to pre-pandemic levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.04%, down -17 bps from yesterday at this time. The VIX volatility index has jumped suddenly, although not yet to an extreme level.Wall Street is in its Thursday session down -4.3% on the S&P500 after the tariff announcements and showing no signs of improving. The price of gold will start today at just on US$3108/oz and down a net -US$24 from yesterday.Oil prices have dropped -US$5 from yesterday at just on US$66.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just under US$69/bbl. Not only is demand expected to soften as tariffs take their toll, eight OPEC+ countries unexpectedly announced a +411,000-barrel-per-day production increase for May, far exceeding the planned +135,000 bpd. It seems an incredibly naive announcement from their self-interest point of viewThe Kiwi dollar is now at 58.1 USc and up +80 bps from this time yesterday. That is a +1.8% appreciation since the start of the week and a +3.8% appreciation since the start of March. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 91.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at just over 52.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just on 67 and up +20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$82,172 and down a sharpish -5.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high at +/- 4.1%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Land Line Now, April 2, 2025

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 2, 2025 50:15

There are plenty of people who have loomed large in the world of trucking over the past few decades – and any list of names is sure to include radio icon Dave Nemo and OOIDA President Todd Spencer. The two legends in their respective fields met at last week's Mid-America Trucking Show for a reunion of sorts, and we had our microphones rolling. Then, Truckstop's Brent Hutto calls in with positive news about load-posting volumes and one market in particular that's doing very well. 0:00 – Newscast 10:13 – Dave Nemo and Todd Spencer on their early days in trucking 24:50 – Dave Nemo and Todd Spencer on their legacies and more 39:33 – More positive signs in the spot market

trucks semi cb mats trucker trucking truckstop newscast reefer flatbed freight rates mid america trucking show todd spencer brent hutto dave nemo

Not so happy

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 20, 2025 6:18

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are slipping in the Happiness rankings, and slipping fast in the inequality measures within it.But first, last week's American initial jobless claims report brought no surprises, coming it at a similar level to the prior week and exactly as anticipated. But they season factors suggested they should have decreased a bit more than they did. There are now 2.13 mln people on these benefits, +6 more than year-ago levels.There were a lot more existing homes sold in the US (excludes new-built homes) in February that either in January or than were expected. But they were still at a lower level that a year ago, and the volume of listings rose +5.1% from a year ago.The latest regional Fed factory survey was from the Philly Fed and its rust-belt region, and while it remained positive, most markers declines in March. New order level declines were part of that.And that is consistent with the Conference Board's latest update of American leading indicators, which declined in February.Across the border in Canada, and perhaps somewhat surprisingly, producer prices rose +4.9% in February from a year ago, an easing of the price pressure from January. But it is still the second fasted rise on this basis since the end of 2022. Raw material cost increases are keeping this measure up.And staying in Canada, their central bank boss signaled a policy change overnight in light of the economic impacts from US tariff threats; rather than setting policy on a median term outlook, the ime may have come for faster, more nimble responses to short-term pressures, he suggested.China kept its Loan Prime Rates unchanged at today's review with the one-year rate, a benchmark for most corporate and household loans, steady at 3.1%, while the five-year, a reference for property mortgages, holding at 3.6%. Both rates are record lows.Taiwanese export orders starred again in February. They soared by +31% from a year ago to US$49.5 bln, easily beating market expectations of +22% growth and rebounding sharply from a small January slip. You can see why the mainland government covets the independent offshore island.German producer prices rose only modestly again, a trend they have been in for four months now after exiting deflation over the past 17 months.The English central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4.5% at their overnight meeting. This was as expected.In Australia, their February labour market data was a surprise disappointment - for the ruling Labor Party at least. The number of people in paid employment fell by -53,000 when a +30,000 rise was widely expected. This is not a small miss, and 'unwelcome' ahead of their upcoming election campaign. But the number of people jobless also fell, and by -11,300, which managed to keep their jobless rate unchanged at 4.1%. The reason both fell is because their participation rate fell to a nine-month low of 66.8%, down sharply from January's 67.2%. People are leaving their workforce faster than usual, many of them boomers. Monthly hours worked in all jobs shrank. Financial markets didn't react badly because it probably will shift the RBA away from worrying about 'tight labour markets' and open up the possibility of rate cuts.Global container freight rates fell another -4% last week to be -31% lower than year-ago levels. But they are still +59% higher than pre-pandemic levels, even though the down trend is gathering pace. Again it is lower rates on outbound cargoes from China to the US that is driving the decline. Bulk cargo rates however were +3.6% higher than week-ago levels, -17% lower than year-ago levels, but still +60% above pre-pandemic levels (which were unusually low, it must be said).In another global report, New Zealand is virtually tied with Australia as the 12th happiest country in the 2024 edition of the World happiness Report released overnight. The usual Scandinavian set is at the top, with Costa Rica, but oddly, both Israel and Mexico now rank higher than us, which seems a little odd. Neither Australia nor New Zealand rank well on the inequality measures.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.24%, down -4 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at just on US$3038/oz and up a net +US$5 from yesterday.Oil prices are up another +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$68/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is at just on US$72/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.5 USc and down -40 bps from this time yesterday in a continuing retreat. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 53 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.8, and -40 bps lower.The bitcoin price starts today at US$83,747 and down -1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at +/- 2.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

The US goes into reverse

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 6, 2025 6:01

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news US policy making has now become so chaotic, businesses are holding off making decisions. That can only have negative consequences.Firstly, US jobless claims rose modestly last week from the week before but this was less than seasonal factors would have suggested. There are now 2.23 mln people on these benefits and back up near the October 2021 levels. The current consensus forecasts for tomorrow's release of the February non-farm payrolls is a rise of 160,000.But there might be some downside, if not in tomorrow's data, in the following set. The level of announced job cuts in February jumped to pandemic levels, and prior to that, to GFC levels. The Musk razor gang is getting some of the blame.The January American trade balance of both goods and services came in double the deficit of a year ago and an all-time record. Tariff policies have driven the change. For the year to January, their total trade deficit was -US$982 bln with a real surge from September to January and blowing it out to -3.4% of US GDP and a record high.Overnight the US announced delays on tariffs against Mexico. It is a never ending series of confusing 'definite' signals, none of which inspire confidence or allow for orderly business decision making. With Mexico, the situation has turned on its head in just four days. With Canada, Trump is ignoring what his Commerce Secretary said just one day ago, and US carmakers are in a real bind now.US wholesale inventories rose in January and their inventory to sales ratio rose too, ending a long period of improvement.Folding this data in gives the latest reading of Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for American Q1-2025 performance is now a -2.4% decline. Apart from the pandemic they won't have seen anything quite this dramatic since the GFC.Since its peak in December, the Tesla share price is continuing its fall, and it is only notable today because the value loss now exceeds -US$660 bln in that period. In NZD that is -$1.15 tln! That price is down another -5.6% so far today and filings show Tesla insiders are now selling.Going the other way, Canada's exports and their trade balance came in sharply positive. Exports were up +20% in January from a year ago and their trade surplus was its best since a brief spike in May 2022, and prior to that, best ever.The Malaysian central bank held its key interest rate at 3% for the tenth consecutive review during its overnight meeting, and that was in line with market expectations.In China, nothing meaningful or unexpected has come from their National People's Congress meetings.In Europe, the ECB cut its three key interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected, reducing the main refinancing rate to 2.65%. It was their sixth cut since the peak in September 2023 of 4.5%. Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to +0.9% for 2025 and +1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment.EU retail sales volumes fell -1.6% in January from the same month a year ago.In Australia, tropical cyclone Alfred has slowed its move toward the Brisbane coast but is still generating damage and will do for longer, even if it actually losing some of its destructive power. Tens of thousands of people are without power now.Container freight rates fell another -3% last week from the week before to be -30% lower than year ago levels and now 'only' +76% above pre-pandemic levels. Bulk freight rates were up +13% in the week however but down -36% from a year ago.Today the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.29%, up +1 bp from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at just over US$2917/oz and little-changed from yesterday.Oil prices are down -50 USc to under US$66/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is just under US$69/bbl. Lower expected demand expectations are the reason.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.5 USc and up +50 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are up +10 bps at 90.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down another -20 bps at 53.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 66.7, and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price started today at US$90,265 and up a net +0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Land Line Now, Feb. 26, 2025

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Play Episode Listen Later Feb 27, 2025 49:36

We've all heard the horror stories about carriers leaving a trucker stranded in the middle of nowhere – so what steps should you take if it happens to you? Then, we'll share the inside scoop about law enforcement ticket quotas with tips on steering clear of trouble. And finally, we're finally out of the pandemic era. We'll look at how the return to “normal” is shaping up on the spot market. 0:00 – Newscast 10:03 – Don't be left stranded 24:24 – Inside scoop on ticket quotas 38:53 – A return to “normal” on the spot market

US tariffs bring higher prices, slower growth

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Play Episode Listen Later Feb 27, 2025 5:16

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news trade and tariffs are in the headlines, but their impact of higher inflation and slower economic activity are just starting to be seen.US initial jobless claims rose sharply last week in seasonally adjusted terms, the largest rise in five month. In actual terms they were basically unchanged when seasonal factors would have normally brought a good reduction in claims. These initial claim levels are +10% high that year ago levels and there are now 2.17 mln people on these jobless benefits, also much higher than a year ago.US durable goods orders rose +3.1% in January from December, but there was a sharpish revision lower in the December data. The January level is +4.3% higher than year-ago levels. Non-defense capital goods were up +2.2% from a year ago.The second estimate of Q4-2024 GDP came in unchanged from the first at +2.3% growth. It would have been more but they noticed higher inflation in the period which trimmed the rising nominal expansion in the period.Pending home sales in the United States fell -5.2% in January from a year ago, following a -5% drop in December.And today's downbeat American economic data releases extended to the Kansas City Fed factory survey which fell in February, contracting by its most in five months.The US Administration said China will be hit with a new 10% tariff, the latest salvo in the US president's steadily escalating trade fights. That is on top of the earlier 10% already in place. The President also said he intended to move forward with a threatened 25% tax on imports from Canada and Mexico, which is set to come into effect on 4 March.So it is little wonder that inflation expectations are rising among Americans. Tariffs are a tax on yourself, and higher prices either result from more expensive imported goods, or they allow local producers to face much less price competition so those prices rise too. It will be impossible for the US Fed to ignore, and bond markets aren't either.But north of the border, Canada said weekly earnings are rising faster there. They rose +5.8% in December from a year ago in data released overnight, the fastest pace since March 2021.And staying in Canada, the reaction to the endless Trump insults are generating a "Buy Canada, Bye America" surge, and now apps are sprouting up enabling such choices right in shop and supermarket aisles. Apparently there are export markets for such services, especially in Europe.The tracking of consumer and business sentiment in the EU shows it is either holding or moving up in January. Now almost as may are positive as negative, which is the best they have had in almost three years, and slightly better than expected.With all the US tariff news, it will be no surprise to learn that container freight rates fell another -6% last week, taking them -30% lower than year-ago levels, and now only +85% higher than pre-pandemic levels. Usage of the Suez Canal is normalising now too. But bulk cargo rates shot up +32% last week from the week before to be -40% lower than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.29%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just under US$2875/oz and down -US$35 from yesterday.Oil prices are up +US$1 at on US$70/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now under US$74/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.5 USc and down -60 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 54.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 66.5, and down a net -40 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$84,968 and -2.3% from this time yesterday. It is currently very much in a bear phase with prices only rising when there is minor volume, but falling sharply when there is high volume. Sellers are choosing their timing, and there are a lot of them. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.8%. You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Beat the 'winner's curse' of auction-type negotiations for better freight rates

Overdrive Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 4, 2025 39:49

With this week's edition of Overdrive Radio, we pick up where longtime Overdrive contributor, former OTR owner and current business coach Gary Buchs left off on the Overdrive Extra blog last week: https://www.overdriveonline.com/15736116/ There, as regular readers will know, he penned and published notes on the "fine art" of rates negotiation, with a special emphasis on ways to counterbalance the pressure so many owner-operators feel to move fast on load opportunities, given the speed at which loads come and go on the boards in particular. Compared to just a short time ago in history, freight "information's moving so much faster" in this day and age, Buchs said. "The speed ... interferes often with solid negotiation. When you speed that up, things get missed." Move too fast to just outright accept an offer, and you might neglect to consider fully that the good-sound long-haul run to the West Coast starts out due well east of Atlanta, with a load pickup time of 2 in the afternoon. If you didn't effectively build into your rate the added cost of traffic in Atlanta rush hours (or the time to wait it out, as it were), you're behind the eight ball before you even get started on the run. Buchs offered a different example of one among many details you can miss if you don't take the time to effectively negotiate. He's heard this one several times: An owner "got to a shipper and ... they wanted cash for the lumper and they didn't have cash," Buchs said, asking "How does that get missed if you do a lot of reefer work?" He advises owner-operators think about such scenarios: "What lessons do we learn when things don't go quite right? How do we apply the lesson we learn? Like when we overcommit or fail to anticipate travel times, drive times. ... Drivers and owner-operators feel the pressure of time squeezing them so much, and that interferes with our ability to tap that brake pedal, to pause for even just a moment. So we have to" be aware of that and "use our experience," he said, knowledge of routes and so much more. Today on the podcast, much more in the way of specific ideas built on Buchs' wealth of personal experience in business and with owners operating in the freight world today. Getting better at negotiation in general certainly isn't easy. "If we're going to get better, we've got to stop thinking that everything is going to be easy," as Buchs put it. But with some of these ideas, hopefully more can avoid participating in what might otherwise feel like an auction, where the “winner's curse” is almost always to be paying more than what an item is really worth, research has shown. In the freight world, that's the opposite. Win the load after race-to-the-bottom ping-ponging with the competition or accepting a broker's lowball offer blindly, and you'll certainly be getting compensated below the market value for the freight movement. In the podcast, Buchs also stresses starting with cost analysis, and recommends including salary needs on the cost side of the ledger when it comes to business profit analysis. It might help you in load-by-load profit analysis and negotiation, too. Overdrive's Load Profit Analyzer, our fairly simple online calculator introduced late last year, is an assist to analyze individual and/or compare multiple loads. The calculator includes on its front end places to use the knowledge and analysis Buchs talks about to input not just cost per mile overall, but variable cost per mile, fixed cost per day worked, and, again considering it on the cost side, a salary per day worked figure. Profit-potential results then show results not only per-mile but per day -- with salary added back in, too -- for better appreciation of the impact of time and fixed costs. The Load Profit Analyzer is free to use with registration: https://overdriveonline.com/load-analyzer

Land Line Now, Jan. 8, 2025

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Play Episode Listen Later Jan 9, 2025 50:06

Full coverage of the recent Motor Carrier Safety Advisory Committee meeting on the truck parking crisis, from the role technology might play in addressing the problem to best practices and more. Then, we offer tips for ensuring your safety amid the rise in cargo theft and for avoiding the claims process. And lastly, things are finally looking up on the spot market as all that cautious optimism turns into relief and confidence. 0:00 – Newscast 9:56 – MCSAC meeting on truck parking crisis 24:25 – Ensuring your safety amid rise in cargo theft 39:24 – Market Update: from cautious optimism to relief and confidence

Land Line Now, Dec. 24, 2024

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Play Episode Listen Later Dec 25, 2024 50:34

Respiratory illness season is here, and a federal program is encouraging prevention. Dr. Donald Dumford of the Cleveland Clinic explains. Also, our countdown of the top trucking stories from 2024 continues with a look at an issue that runs deep – freight rates and, by extension, broker transparency. 0:00 – Freight rates, broker transparency make big headlines in 2024 10:06 – Act now to prevent sickness later

Black Friday's Impact, Falling Freight Rates, and Preparing for TikTok's Potential Ban

Furniture Industry News from FurniturePodcast.com

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 6, 2024

Welcome to the latest episode of Furniture Industry News, where we bring you essential updates shaping the furniture market. In this episode, we cover:Retail Trends: Thanksgiving Weekend HighlightsHoliday Shopping Boom:207 million Americans (79% of U.S. adults) shopped over Thanksgiving weekend, up from 75% last year.In-store sales remain crucial: 78% of consumers either purchased in-store or used pickup services.70% made additional purchases while picking up online orders.Top shopping days:Black Friday: 39% of purchases.Cyber Monday: 19%.Looking ahead: 60% of shoppers still have holiday purchases pending.Shipping News: Container Rates Drop Amid Looming ChallengesCurrent trends:Rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles dropped 12%, now $3,719 per 40-ft container.Favorable rates driven by global fluctuations.Future pressures:Potential International Longshoremen's Association port strike in January 2025.Possible new tariffs may cause businesses to frontload shipments.Experts predict rates could rise significantly in early 2025.TikTok's Legal Challenges: Implications for Furniture MarketingA federal court upheld legislation requiring ByteDance, TikTok's Chinese parent company, to sell its U.S. stake by January 19, 2025.If no sale occurs, TikTok may face a U.S. ban.Businesses relying on TikTok's 170M U.S. user base should prepare alternative strategies.TikTok may appeal, but uncertainty looms, with a potential 90-day extension for active negotiations.Company News: Wayfair and Hooker Furnishings in FocusWayfair:Reports market share gains despite a challenging industry environment.Strategic priorities include:New rewards program.Enhanced delivery options.Expansion of Wayfair Professional (B2B).Hooker Furnishings:Reports a $7.3M operating loss in Q3, driven by:Layoff-related severance costs.Bankruptcy of a key customer.Positive outlook:Progress on cost-saving initiatives expected to save $10M annually by 2026.Home Meridian division posted its highest-ever gross margin (20.5%).Optimism for improvement with cooling inflation and interest rate trends.Thank you for tuning in! Stay updated by subscribing to Furniture Industry News.

How to Do Freight Quotes For Shippers [Download Free Cheat Sheet]

Freight Broker Boot Camp Audio Experience

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 21, 2024 9:27

In this episode of my Freight Broker Boot Camp, I will talk about Freight Quotes and Freight Rates. I specifically share how to do freight quotes for shippers as a freight broker. Learning how to do freight quotes is a critical part of success in the freight broker business. Enjoy! Download the FREE Cheat Sheet here!: www.FreightBrokerBootCamp.com/FreightQuote Timestamps: [00:00] Introduction [00:43] The reason why freight rates are very dynamic [02:12] Step #1 - make sure you get detailed info about the shipment [03:24] Step #2 - Use online rating tools to understand lane pricing [04:28] Step #3 - Post your load to loadboards [05:58] Step #4 - You can also call trucks that match the lane you posted [07:02] Step #5 - You have to add your mark-up [08:00] Download the FREE Cheat Sheet here!: www.FreightBrokerBootCamp.com/FreightQuote [08:19] Get Your Freight Broker Training NOW! - www.FreightBrokerBootCamp.com [08:50] Subscribe, Rate & Review! ---------------------------------- If you enjoyed this episode, please RATE / REVIEW and SUBSCRIBE to ensure you never miss an episode. Connect w/ Dennis & Learn More! Connect with me on LinkedIn Learn to Become A Freight Broker/Agent in 30 Days or Less! Watch Freight Broker Training Videos FREE

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Pipelines on Water: Why Have LNG Freight Rates Plunged, and When Will They Come Up for Air?

NGI's Hub & Flow

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 19, 2024 15:42

Spark Commodities CEO Tim Mendelssohn joins NGI's managing editor of LNG, Jamison Cocklin, to discuss how bearish market fundamentals have been driving down freight rates for LNG cargoes. A “massive vessel oversupply,” combined with delays in U.S. LNG export projects, has pushed freight rates well below market expectations. Mendelssohn explains why these rates could remain low for the foreseeable future and explores the potential implications for the LNG shipping market as new export facilities come online in the years to come.

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Land Line Now, Sept. 30, 2024

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Play Episode Listen Later Sep 30, 2024 51:04

Arrive Logistics' David Spencer foresees a significant impact on freight rates from Hurricane Helene and the possible port strike. Also, OOIDA's advocacy counsel, Paul Torlina, gives us a sneak peek inside the presentation on factoring he'll give at the upcoming Truck To Success seminar. And Jim Nebergall of Cummins offers some insight into what the engine maker is doing regarding hydrogen combustion as a fuel for trucks. 0:00 – Rates likely to react to hurricane, potential strike 10:07 – Factoring – when to use it, when not to 25:00 – Engine maker puts resources into hydrogen combustion

The Logistics of SHEIN: From Imports to Influencers

Digital Dispatch Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 10, 2024 44:03 Transcription Available

In this episode of Everything is Logistics, we dig into the e-commerce scene and why SHEIN is at the center of the conversation, with SHEIN and Temu making up a whopping 30% of all e-commerce shipments coming through the West Coast.Grace Sharkey and I also chat about the flood of these tax-free shipments and how customs and border folks are scrambling to keep up. Plus, we'll take a closer look at SHEIN's business practices on the retail and influencer side.LINKS:Freight Friends: Surviving Conference Season, Fav Biz Ideas, Cargo Crimes and moreFast Fashion, Freight Rates and Conspiracies: Unraveling the ComplexitiesSearch for Ethical BrandsGrace's Article on Using AI in Customs-border Trade ComplianceAlibaba's tools for cross border shipping and global sourcing with Yikun ShaoWATCH THE FULL EPISODE HEREFeedback? Ideas for a future episode? Shoot us a text here to let us know.---------------------------------------------THANK YOU TO OUR SPONSORS!Are you experienced in freight sales or already an independent freight agent? Listen to our Freight Agent Trenches interview series powered by SPI Logistics to hear directly from the company's agents on how they took the leap and found a home with SPI freight agent program. Tai TMS is designed to streamline your brokerage operations and propel growth for both FTL and LTL shipment cycles. Book a demo with the Tai team today and tell them Everything is Logistics sent you. Trimble is transforming the way the world works through industry leading solutions that reduce cost and maximize productivity. Learn more about Trimble Technology here.Digital Dispatch maximizes your #1 sales tool with a website that establishes trust and builds rock-solid relationships with your leads and customers. Check out our website services here.

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Analyzing Market Trends and Forecasting Freight Rates with Ken Adamo

Trucking for Millennials

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 24, 2024 60:08

In this episode of the Trucking for Millennials podcast, we had the pleasure of hosting Ken Adamo, the Chief of Analytics at DAT Solutions. Ken brought a wealth of knowledge and insights into the world of freight analytics, sharing his expertise on how data can drive better decision-making in the logistics industry. We kicked off the conversation by discussing the challenges of absorbing and utilizing analytic information in the freight industry. Ken emphasized the importance of mastering the basics of pricing freight and understanding market conditions before diving into more advanced analytics. He shared practical advice for small brokers on how to effectively use DAT's tools to price freight accurately and make informed decisions. Ken also provided a fascinating history of DAT, which started as a dial-a-truck load finder service in 1978 at a truck stop in Portland, Oregon. He highlighted the evolution of freight analytics over the years and the importance of historical data in understanding market trends. We delved into the impact of election years on freight rates, with Ken explaining how political uncertainty can affect investment and, consequently, the freight market. He also touched on the cyclical nature of the freight industry, describing the typical four-year cycles of expansion and contraction and where we currently stand in that cycle. One of the key takeaways from our discussion was the importance of contract freight for brokers. Ken explained that while securing contract freight can ensure long-term success, it also requires careful planning and accurate forecasting to avoid potential pitfalls. Ken's passion for logistics and freight was evident throughout the conversation. He shared his journey from working in deregulated energy to falling in love with the complexities of the freight industry at FedEx. His enthusiasm for data and analytics was contagious, and he provided valuable insights into how brokers and carriers can leverage data to improve their operations. Overall, this episode was packed with actionable advice and deep insights into the world of freight analytics. Whether you're a small broker looking to improve your pricing strategies or a carrier navigating the complexities of the market, Ken's expertise offers valuable guidance to help you succeed in the ever-evolving logistics landscape.

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Insights on Freight Rates, Iron Ore, and Oil Market Fluctuations

FIS CASTAWAY

Play Episode Listen Later May 22, 2024 14:29

Hello and welcome back to Freight Up, the number 1 commodities and freight markets podcast from FIS. We're your hosts, Jess, and Davide, and in this episode of Freight Up, we're joined by Ben Klang, who breaks down the latest trends in the dry freight market, Hao Pei provides an insightful analysis of the new Chinese stimulus package's impact on the iron ore market, Archie Smith gives us a comprehensive overview of the current state of the oil market.Whether you're a current client or someone who's thinking of working with us, this episode's packed with essential information to keep you informed on the critical movements within the trading sphere. Listen in as we explore these topics and more on Freight Up!Remember, follow "Freight Up" in your favourite podcast app, and find us on LinkedIn! And check out our app FIS Live for the latest insights. Thanks in advance for listening to this Freight and Commodity podcast by FIS!Useful links:FIS LiveTimestamps00:00 Freight rates declined while fuel prices dropped.04:43 Panamaxis and supermax index rates fluctuate downward.07:45 Short-run metals trade crowded, impacting gold, silver, copper, zinc.10:02 Crude oil price remained range-bound, supported.14:08 Subscribe and follow for future podcast updates.

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Dry Freight, FFAs and Technology with Mads Frank Markussen

The HC Insider Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 30, 2024 53:36

In this episode, we do a deep dive into the dry freight market and how bulk commodities are shipped around the world and by whom. As the commodities markets themselves become more efficient, freight markets are starting to represent one of the biggest sources of risk and opportunity available to traders and charterers. This, in turn, is driving convergence between the traditional separation between ship owners, charterers and the traders. What is the structure of the market for dry freight? How do participants use Freight Forward Agreements? What is the impact on talent? And how could coming technology disrupt and develop this volatile corner of the commodities world. Our guest is Mads Frank Markussen, Head of Research and Market Intelligence at the European ship owner and freight trader, Navi Merchants

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Conflict & Commodities: Impact on Freight Rates, Iron Ore Demand, and Oil Prices

FIS CASTAWAY

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 24, 2024 14:57 Transcription Available

Markets in Motion: Dry Freight Gains, Middle East Tensions, and Iron Ore UpdatesHello and welcome back to Freight Up, the number 1 commodities and freight markets podcast from FIS. We're your hosts, Jess, and Davide, and in this episode of Freight Up we'll dissect the latest geopolitical events impacting our sectors, from the Middle Eastern tensions and their muted effect on crude oil, to the unexpected surge in cocoa prices due to West African crop shortfalls.In this episode, Ben Klang decodes the dry freight market's roller coaster ride, while Hao Pei predicts the iron ore market's resistance to a short-term correction. Our people's broker and resident fuel oil expert Archie Smith reports to us remotely from Dubai, shining a light on the rising cracks in fuel oil prices this month.Brace yourselves for another 'deep dive' into the seas of freight and commodities. Remember, follow "Freight Up" in your favourite podcast app, and find us on LinkedIn! And check out our app FIS Live for the latest insights. Thanks in advance for listening to this Freight and Commodity podcast by FIS!Useful links:FIS LiveTimestamps00:00 Middle East tensions ease, commodities fluctuate. Fed adjusts.04:21 TC index down 7% then rebounded. Market sentiment improved.08:16 High market, steel margin drop, iron ore strategy.09:36 Steel demand may gradually increase over months.13:09 OPEC cuts impacting high sulphur crude market.

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888. #TFCMS - Are Freight Rates Trending Up?!

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Play Episode Listen Later Apr 8, 2024 31:55

#TheFreightCoach Morning Show is The TOP Transportation Morning Show is LIVE every weekday at 10:30 AM CST to breakdown THREE transportation industry headlines! Mark your calendars! https://www.fleetowner.com/operations/article/55001773/freight-rates-load-to-truck-ratios-trending-up To Donate To The Make A Wish Foundation: https://secure2.wish.org/site/TR/WalkForWishes/Make-A-WishSouthernNevada?team_id=47767&pg=team&fr_id=5522 Check out my YouTube Channel for further industry insights! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjrL70IEnCfDkNaiYMar3jw Make sure to subscribe and share! They are the new wave for freight brokers and freight brokerages to separate themselves from the competition! Thank you to my sponsor: https://www.greenscreens.ai/thefreightcoach Ditch your carrier packet, Drive more carrier sales and get better load coverage with seamless digital onboarding, TMS integration, and smart load coverage, visit: https://brokercarrier.com/

858. #TFCMS - Are Freight Rates Rising?! Has The Spot Market Bottomed Out?

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 6, 2024 29:09

#TheFreightCoach Morning Show is The TOP Transportation Morning Show is LIVE every weekday at 10:30 AM CST to breakdown THREE transportation industry headlines! Mark your calendars! To Donate To The Make A Wish Foundation: https://secure2.wish.org/site/TR/WalkForWishes/Make-A-WishSouthernNevada?team_id=47767&pg=team&fr_id=5522 Check out my YouTube Channel for further industry insights! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjrL70IEnCfDkNaiYMar3jw Make sure to subscribe and share! They are the new wave for freight brokers and freight brokerages to separate themselves from the competition! Thank you to my sponsor: https://www.greenscreens.ai/thefreightcoach Ditch your carrier packet, Drive more carrier sales and get better load coverage with seamless digital onboarding, TMS integration, and smart load coverage, visit: https://brokercarrier.com/

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Land Line Now, Feb. 23, 2024

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Play Episode Listen Later Feb 24, 2024 50:37

The OOIDA Foundation is out with the results of two new surveys – one on detention time, the other on freight rates. Andrew King of the OOIDA Foundation stops by to discuss the topics. Also, the final push to keep FMCSA from imposing a speed limiter mandate has begun. We'll get an update on that from Jami Jones and Mark Schremmer of Land Line Magazine. And do you view trucking as a job or a career? Marty Ellis has seen both kinds of truckers – and he has a few thoughts on the subject. 0:00 – Newscast 10:00 – Survey says detention time is down – but there's a catch 24:52– Final push to stop speed limiters underway 39:54 – Do you see trucking as a job or a career?

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Gap's C-Suite Appointments, AWM's Frictionless Shopping, Rising Ocean Freight Rates, and Tencent's Palm Payment Revolution

Retail Daily Minute

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 17, 2024 2:53

Hey, Omni Talk fans!

Macro Sunday #31 - Spiking freight rates bringing back inflation?

Macro Sunday

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 7, 2024 39:26

The situation in the Red Sea is worsening and freight rates are on the rise in some subsectors. Can the situation escalate into a new inflation spiral and what does it mean for the positive 2024 outlooks from right about every investment bank? We discuss the situation with a selection of analysts at Steno Research.If you find our research valuable, please visit www.stenoresearch.com - there is always a 14 day free trial and you can use the code Macro30 to get 30% off your subscription until Jan 15! Hosts: Andreas Steno, Mikkel Rosenvold, Mads Eberhardt & Emil MøllerIf you enjoy our content, Please subscribe to our Youtube Channel ➡️ https://tinyurl.com/23hp3vah#podcast #economy #banking #economics #trading #interestrate#useconomy#macroeconomy#cryptocurrency #crypto #mortgageinterestrates#usgdp#economicrecession#usrecession#softlanding

Land Line Now, Dec. 13, 2023

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Play Episode Listen Later Dec 14, 2023 49:57

Is the truck parking situation improving? We cover a new study that suggests there is more truck parking capacity than there was two years ago, and more, in our latest installment of The Parking Zone. Then, a new campaign seeks to get more girls interested in trucking careers, and Barbie plays a central role. Plus, December is shaping up to be a slow month on the spot market. We have tips for improving profitability while freight rates are low. 0:00 – Newscast 10:18 – The Parking Zone 24:49 – Barbie seeks CDL 39:20 – Spot market slowdown

The Stockout EP97 TriumphPay's CPO expects another year of depressed freight rates

FreightCasts

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 4, 2023 28:54

FreightWaves' Mike Baudendistel and Grace Sharkey talk AI, retail sales and inflation data and interview Josh Bouk, Chief Partnership Officer of TriumphPay Follow The Stockout Podcast Other FreightWaves Shows Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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The tide is turning in global shipping

Moody’s Talks – The Big Picture

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 6, 2023 11:19

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we discuss what is driving the recent fall in freight rates and what this could mean for the sector's efforts to decarbonize and the global economy.Guests: Daniel Harlid, VP-Senior Credit Officer within the Corporate Finance Group at Moody's Investors ServiceHost: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody's Investors Service

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Sentiment vs. Supply: Does market mood impact freight rates?

FIS CASTAWAY

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 5, 2023 15:31

Crude crash and FIS Fertilizer team's risk management tools to bring stability to the market? Welcome back to Freight Up! Our weekly podcast from Freight Investor Services - or as we're more affectionately known - FIS is here to bring you another massive update. I'm your host, Fernanda, and today we're talking Crude Oil and the KRG pipeline. In this episode, we also have a special treat for you as Barney Talbot-Ponsonby makes his debut and gives us an update on the fertilizer market. Crude crash Archie discusses the recent crash in the crude oil market and its potential impact on supply and demand. He also delves into the factors influencing oil prices, including sentiment and the strength of the US dollar. Additionally, Archie sheds light on the high sulphur market and the recent changes in the crack spread. Risk management tools We're also joined by Barney Talbot-Ponsonby who talks us through developments in the fertilizer market and shares some sneak preview news around risk management tools! Here's the link to the FIS live app Timestamped summary of this episode: [00:02:34] Crude oil rally crashes, hitting new lows. [00:03:18] High interest rates fuel global fuel demand. [00:07:23] High sulfur content is good for refining. European market short on high sulfur supply. [00:12:07] Indian tender expected; big moves in market. [00:13:34] Brazil physical offers up, China news slow.

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Commodity Supply Chain Challenges with Anton Posner

The HC Insider Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 29, 2023 43:36

Commodity Supply Chain Challenges with Anton Posner COVID is in the rear-view mirror, yet the commodity supply chains remain volatile and uncertain. In this episode, we catch up on the state of bulk commodities shipping and logistics. 2022 generated unprecedented returns, particularly in the container market. Why and what has happened since? How are traders and logistics providers managing high interest rates, war, enormous scandals involving missing inventory and the uncertainty wrought by the energy transition and decoupling with China. What are the routes and tools in bulk commodities freight? Where are freight rates now and where are the headed? Our guest is Anton Posner, Founder and CEO of the Mercury Group whhich offers logistical expertise for the shipment of dry goods (both dry bulk and break-bulk) by barge, train, truck or vessel, particularly for the metals sector.

Fast Fashion, Freight Rates and Conspiracies: Unraveling the Complexities

Digital Dispatch Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 11, 2023 134:43 Transcription Available

Ever wondered about the future of the supply chain and its intersection with the fast-paced world of fashion? Join us as we untangle these complex threads in a captivating conversation with our returning guest, Grace Sharkey from FreightWaves. We kick things off with a deep dive into the heart of the trucking market, discussing the potential fallout of current freight volumes, the rates carriers are charging, and how student loans could soon drastically affect spending. We also share insights from the recent Future of Supply Chain conference, exploring how technology is acting as a beacon amidst economic turmoil.The story doesn't end there. We move onto the darker side of fashion, scrutinizing the ethical concerns surrounding fast fashion and its impact on labor practices, as seen in the backlash against SHEIN. We explore the role of influencers and the responsibility resting on consumers' shoulders to understand the supply chain dynamics of major corporations. We also delve into the origins of fast fashion and discuss the concept of greenwashing, underscoring the urgent need for transparency in the industry.We round off the episode by touching on intriguing conspiracy theories, including the legacy of the Titanic. We delve into the supply chain issues affecting Sriracha production, revealing the controversies behind Hoi Fung Foods and Underwood Ranches. In the end, we discuss the launch of Meta's new social media platform, Threads, and the implications it holds for Mark Zuckerberg's rivalry with Elon Musk.YOUTUBE: https://youtu.be/45rNY5l9z78 LINKS:Grace Sharkey's workSearch for ethical brandsFaking podcast interviews for kloutFruit Roll-Up SmugglingWhy Meghan Markle's podcast failedThe Sriracha Shortage---------------------------------------------THANK YOU TO OUR SPONSORS!Are you experienced in freight sales or already an independent freight agent? Listen to our Freight Agent Trenches interview series powered by SPI Logistics to hear directly from company's agents on how they took the leap and found a home with SPI. CartonCloud provides easy-to-use Warehouse Management and Transport management software (WMS/ TMS), designed to remove barriers for smaller players in the industry and provide intuitive workflows, data automation, and integrations that allow logistics companies to scale and grow with ease. Maximize your website's performance and security with Digital Dispatch's web hosting and management. ---------------------------------------------ABOUT THE PODCAST: Everything is Logistics is a podcast for the thinkers in freight. Follow the podcast to never miss an episode. Follow EIL host Blythe Brumleve on social: LinkedIn | TikTok | YouTube...

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Land Line Now, June 14, 2023

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Play Episode Listen Later Jun 15, 2023 50:01

Side underride guards were the topic of a recent documentary by PBS's Frontline – and OOIDA's Lewie Pugh was interviewed for the show. We'll sit down with him to discuss the documentary and find out where the Association stands on the issue. Also, we have some positive updates on parking, such as the Truck Parking Safety Improvement Act passing out of committee – but also some bad, including another major city banning truck parking. And rain and cold temperatures have led to a late start to produce season. We'll have the latest on what that means for produce haulers out west, and what rates are looking like as we head into the middle of June. 0:00 – Newscast 09:25 – OOIDA: Stronger rear bumpers yes; side underride guards no 24:19 – Good news and bad news for truck parking 39:03 – A rainy day for produce season

560. #TheFreightCoach Morning Show - Is Detention A Top 5 Trucking Issue?! Plus HOS Violations Rise & Freight Rates?!

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Play Episode Listen Later May 9, 2023 30:44

#TheFreightCoach Morning Show is The TOP Transportation Morning Show is LIVE every weekday at 10:30 AM CST to breakdown THREE transportation industry headlines! Mark your calendars! · https://www.ttnews.com/articles/atri-top-five-issues-2023 · https://www.freightwaves.com/news/report-finds-higher-hours-of-service-violation-rates-since-2020-revisions?fbclid=IwAR1UKZfinROSrlU7-dlKoi1f6-oGOAyIYk9mP-zzkbWS-zyKswa3rO_iHQQ · https://www.fleetowner.com/news/article/21264960/when-will-the-2023-freight-recession-end Check out my YouTube Channel for further industry insights! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjrL70IEnCfDkNaiYMar3jw Make sure to subscribe and share! Thank you to my sponsor: https://www.vhubapp.com/ They are the new wave for freight brokers and freight brokerages to separate themselves from the competition! Thank you to my sponsor: https://www.greenscreens.ai/partnership-the-freight-coach Ditch your carrier packet, Drive more carrier sales and get better load coverage with seamless digital onboarding, TMS integration, and smart load coverage, visit: https://brokercarrier.com/

547. #TheFreightCoach Morning Show - AB5 Author Now Works At Union?! Plus, Are Freight Rates At Bottom?!