Podcasts about veriten

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.This week we provide our latest thoughts on the Strait of Hormuz Crisis and the news of a “peace deal” having been reached between the U.S. and Iran. We recorded this on Wednesday, June 17, two days ahead of the expected signing on Friday, June 19. We think these comments will hold up even if there are any unexpected developments prior to Saturday publication. If not, we will follow up on Twitter-X and LinkedIn. 0:00 Introduction 0:43 Lee Raymond – Greatest CEO of My Career 4:24 SoH Crisis – Big Picture Thoughts On Oil Markets 8:07 SoH Crisis – Crude Oil S/D 19:12 War & Peace – USA vs Iran 21:38 Long-Term Energy Macro Implications 25:55 WWLRD If He Was An Active CEO Now? 31:10 On A Personal Note – A New Top Life Moment

Markets surge as investors respond to signs of a potential Iran peace framework and developments coming out of the G7. Keith Lerner of Truist explains what's fueling the market's latest advance and whether the rally has further room to run. Arjun Murti of Veriten discusses what it will take for energy markets to return to normal and what investors should watch next. Voyager Technologies CEO Dylan Taylor on where the industry's biggest opportunities are emerging. Our Deirdre Bosa reports on Anthropic pulling its Mythos model. Gene Munster weighs whether increasing government involvement and regulation could become a meaningful threat to AI profits and growth. Brij Khurana of Wellington Management discusses the questions facing prospective Fed Chair candidate Kevin Warsh and what investors need to know about the future direction of monetary policy. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.A few oil macro oriented thoughts today following an interesting week that started at a fuels distribution conference in Las Vegas just prior to last weekend and ended in Vienna on Monday at the OPEC Secretariat where I moderated one of two non-OPEC supply outlook panels as part of OPEC's 19th Annual Technical Meeting of OPEC and Non-OPEC Countries. Our key message today is that the promise of the Strait of Hormuz re-opening following the ceasefire that was announced just about two months ago is giving way to an entrenched stalemate that suggests company executives and investors should brace for both the opportunity and turmoil that comes from big jumps in oil prices but also the inevitable pullbacks that follow as supply/demand clears. We expect that process of super volatility to be a repeatable feature of the current era. While high volatility is often thought of as depressing equity valuations, which is true, it also will depress the instinct by companies to spend capital, which in turn will prove supportive of profitability. How best to value volatile cash flows in publicly-traded equities is always a challenge and a theme we will continue to focus on.We are including the link to the ZeroHedge webinar Arjun did with Jeff Currie as discussed (here).0:00 Introduction 1:40 ZeroHege “Oil Debate” With Jeff Currie 5:56 Valuing Oil-Exposed Equities In A Super Vol Macro Backdrop 8:06 OPEC Meeting Takeaways 10:34 On A Personal Note

Today we were pleased to host Marshall Carver, Professor of Finance at Tulane University, who is currently in Beijing teaching students through a joint program with the University of China Academy of Social Sciences (UCAS). We have known Marshall since his time at Tudor Pickering Holt, and he has since built a 20+ year career in equity and debt research. He joined the Tulane faculty five years ago and teaches energy-focused courses including energy investment banking, financial modeling, risk management, and equity research. We were excited to visit with Marshall and hear his firsthand perspectives from China. In our conversation, Marshall shares his experiences teaching energy finance and financial modeling in Beijing and his broader observations on China's rapidly evolving energy, manufacturing, and technology landscape. We discuss China's aggressive long-term focus on manufacturing, AI, renewable energy, batteries, EVs, automation, and infrastructure development through centralized five-year planning, and he explains why he believes China continues extending its lead across several energy transition industries. We explore parallels between the U.S. shale boom and China's current EV and renewable energy expansion, including the intense competition, quick scaling, overcapacity concerns, and profitability challenges facing many companies. Marshall outlines the differences he sees between Chinese and U.S. students in areas such as technology and AI tools, spreadsheet modeling, and engineering-focused education. We cover China's growing emphasis on energy security and its increasingly “all-of-the-above” approach to energy development, including coal, nuclear, renewables, and EV infrastructure investments. We also discuss the country's fast-growing EV ecosystem, long-range hybrid vehicles, AI and robotics adoption, and the broader geopolitical and industrial competition between China and the United States. We touch on demographic and real estate challenges within China, the role automation could play in offsetting labor constraints, and Marshall's fascinating personal observations from spending significant time on the ground in Beijing. It was a highly interesting discussion, and we appreciate Marshall for sharing his time and insights. Mike Bradley started the show by noting that this is a holiday-shortened trading week, with most markets trading on hopes of an imminent Iranian deal, even as those hopes are ironically being overshadowed by ongoing military strikes within the Gulf. On the bond market front, 10-year bond yields were trading just under 4.5% (down from a recent peak of ~4.7%) on optimism that inflation could begin to ease if a potential Iranian deal materializes. On the crude oil market front, WTI prices had pulled back to $92-$93/bbl (down $3-$4/bbl) amid growing optimism that an Iranian deal could be forthcoming. On the broader equity market front, markets continue to post new all-time highs (dialing in a significant amount of optimism), despite the ongoing cycle of weekly on-and-off talks with Iran. On the energy equity front, investors currently appear to be sitting on the sidelines, waiting to see which direction oil prices ultimately break. He ended by noting that energy investors also seem to be positioning for the next major Energy/Electric sector deal now that 1Q26 earnings calls are in the rearview mirror. Arjun Murti discussed several major themes emerging from the ongoing Iran conflict and broader energy markets. He emphasized that nothing about the current geopolitical backdrop appears to be slowing the ongoing “power super cycle,” particularly given strong hyperscaler earnings, capex growth, and continued AI-driven electricity demand. He also pushed back on the idea that oil is entering a new long-term super cycle and reiterated Veriten's view that the market environment is better characterized as “geopolitical super vol,” with continued spikes and pullbacks driven by geopolitical developments rather than structurally higher long-term oil prices. He outlined what Veriten is calling the “Four Ds” of pragmatic energy policy: maximizing domestic production, diversifying energy sources and technologies, doing more with existing assets, and embracing digital transformation and AI. Arjun ended by highlighting China as a notable example of a resource-constrained country pursuing an aggressive “all-of-the-above” strategy across coal, renewables, automation, and AI.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript using the blue Download button below. There is no PowerPoint slide deck this week.This week we introduce the topic of how to think about energy equity valuations given a Geopolitical Super Vol macro backdrop. Traditional valuation metrics like EV/EBITDA are likely to prove especially unhelpful at a time of major geopolitical uncertainty and commodity volatility. We harken back to the framework we used in the early 2010s for US refiners when Brent-WTI first blew out to around $20/bbl when surging shale oil production unexpectedly filled up pipelines and infrastructure. At the time, investors treated every press release of a contemplated pipeline reversal as solving the bottleneck. Spreads did ultimately narrow meaningfully, as expected, but the transient “above normal” cash flows were not worth zero as the market was initially ascribing. Our framework gave “one-time” credit to temporary cash flows and full credit for our estimate of mid-cycle earnings. This is not a perfect analogy for a geopolitical event like the Strait of Hormuz, but we think the framework is a good one for this environment.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.This is the 100th Super-Spiked video podcast. We've also had an additional 114 written posts that for no obvious reason we account for with its own numbering system, a point that we are sure is of interest to no one and we will merge going forward in case you are wondering why we'll jump to #215 next week. In celebration of our 100th episode, we recorded this a week early ahead of a guy's golf trip to Scotland, where we'll be playing Turnberry, Prestwick, Royal Troon, and Western Gailes. 8 rounds in 5 days is way to ambitious for a bunch of guys in their upper 50s. More on that in the On A Personal Note at the end of this video. Our key focus this week will be discussing how we think the world should think about energy macro scenarios. It should not surprise anyone that we do not believe the world will go back to viewing CO2 as an organizing principle for energy. We have been asked if not “net zero” then what? We attempt to answer that question this week. We start off by taking a look at the key themes from 2022 at the start of Super-Spiked. Those initial themes have stood the test of time. This 100th episode is targeted at a combination of corporate executives, board members, policy people, and the macro economics and sustainability people within companies. It's probably not for everyone, but that has been one of our philosophies. We are not looking to maximize views of Super-Spiked. We hope it will be accessible to everyone, but this one in particular is aimed at a smaller subset of key decision makers. 0:00 Introduction2:06 Our Key Themes from 2022 Have Stood the Test of Time11:40 Won't Net Zero Make a Comeback in 2028?17:31 If Not Net Zero, Then What?21:46 How Should Energy Macro Scenarios Be Reframed? 23:30 On A Personal Note

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.This week we have some quick comments on a trio of topics including (1) macro risk/reward at the two-month anniversary of the Strait of Hormuz being closed, (2) UAE's decision to withdraw from OPEC, and (3) the attractiveness of Canada for energy investment. All these themes fit well within our Geopolitical Super Vol theme. 0:00 Introduction 0:42 Macro risk/reward at the 2-month anniversary of the Strait of Hormuz being closed 8:27 UAE's decision to withdraw from OPEC 13:08 The attractiveness of Canada for energy investment. 17:45 On A Personal NoteSubscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.As we teased in last week's video, we want to expand on the evolution of our Super Vol commodity macro framework to explicitly rebrand it Geopolitical Super Vol. Since Russia-Ukraine, we have resisted the super-cycle framing that we think implies a smoothness to an upcycle like seen during the 2000s China-BRICs expansion period. The current environment is more like the 1970s—arguably a super-cycle, but one with a lot more choppiness and stress along the way. The current decade is shaping up to be a modern version of that era, with some important differences.Although we are calling it Geopolitical Super Vol, we want to be clear on a few conclusions:* We believe structural profitability and opportunities for growth are significant for a broad range of companies involved in traditional energy, new energy technology, the power value chain, and a host of raw materials.* We believe the corresponding S&P 500 weighting for these sectors will increase meaningfully in the decade ahead.* It is the inevitable sharp economic downturns along the way that motivates us sticking with and evolving the Super Vol language. You can't demand that which does not exist—and that means sharp commodity spikes will be met with similarly sharp pullbacks during this era.0:00 Introduction2:41 A Break from The 1980-2020 World View6:22 Implications for Energy Sector10:48 Investing in Energy, Power, and Materials14:44 Obliterating Pre-Iran Views16:36 Obliterating Pre-Pre-Iran Views18:53 Be Wary of Perma Bulls and Perma Bears20:36 Be Wary of Net Zero Rebranded21:58 Energy's Natural Hierarch of Needs Remains Our North Star22:39 FAQ #1: How do we think about global recession risk?24:38 FAQ #2: What are lessons learned from the Asia Financial Crisis of 1997-9?27:15 FAQ #3: What does the traditional energy profitability cycle look like in Geopolitical Super Vol?28:51-32:10 On A Personal Note: Feedback vs PushbackSubscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com..

We present a Special Episode of SmarterMarkets™, bringing you exclusive interviews from S&P Global's CERAWeek 2026. SmarterMarkets™ was in Houston last week for CERAWeek to partner with S&P Global. We sat down with participants at the energy industry's most influential annual conference. The theme for this year's conference was Convergence and Competition: Energy, Technology, and Geopolitics – and the implications of the conflict in Iran were on everyone's mind. We've compiled a selection of those interviews into this Special Episode of SmarterMarkets™. If you would like to listen to the full interviews, they are available on the SmarterMarkets™ Presents media portal. They're also available on our second podcast channel, SmarterMarkets™ Presents. Our guests are: Arjun Murti – Partner at Veriten & Publisher of "Super-Spiked" on Substack Susan Sakmar – Visiting Professor at University of Houston Law Center & Board Member of Flex LNG Jeff Currie – Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways, Carlyle Radhika Krishnan – Chief Product and Technology Officer, Quorum Software Michael Greenstone – Director, Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC) David Keith – Founding Faculty Director, Climate Systems Engineering Initiative, University of Chicago

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using the blue Download button below. There is no power point slide deck this week.We spent the past week in Houston at the always great CERAWeek conference hosted by S&P Global. On behalf of all my colleagues at Veriten, a big thank you to Dan Yergin and the entire S&P Global team for putting on a great event. CERAWeek 2026 came amidst what is now week four of the War in Iran and the continued de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. We are recording this late on Wednesday, March 25 and as always hope that by the time this is released on Saturday morning, the Strait will have reopened to normal flows and the war ended. Its ongoing closure is simply untenable for the global economy. It is ultimately not good for energy companies, which is our focus area, even if current oil and gas pricing is elevated. A quick end to the war and the reopening of the Strait is the best-case scenario for energy companies everywhere.This week we'll provide some takeaways from CERAWeek 2026. We will bucket our takeaways in 3 key themes: (1) Macro outlook and scenarios; (2) The day after the war ends, what comes next for energy companies? (3) What unexpected changes will come from this crisis?Our current plan is to not publish Super-Spiked over Easter/Passover weekend. We hope everyone is able to take some time off.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content. Also available at https://veriten.com.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.We recorded this video podcast on Wednesday, March 18. This week we address five questions that have arisen regarding our views on the potential long-term impacts of the war in Iran.* Does our Super-Spike oil demand destruction framework need adjusting for an abrupt geopolitical spike?* What advance warning signs are we watching to assess economic damage and risks to capital markets?* How does Iran impact our view of the traditional energy profitability cycle and terminal value recognition?* Does the war change which regions we prefer for future CAPEX?* How does Iran impact our Power Surge (power super-cycle) view?Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com.SLIDE 3: Super-Spike Framework In A Geopolitical Event?Key points:* Our March 2005 “Super-Spike” framework was used to assess how high oil prices could reach in order to slow oil demand growth to levels of available supply in an environment of structurally strong global GDP growth (BRICs expansion).* We chose “super” to indicate the oil upcycle was multi-year in nature. We chose “spike” to remind ourselves and our clients that inevitably oil would surely rollover as cycle dynamics ensured a future period of oversupply (or under-demand).* At the end of the day, the super-cycle is always one of sector profitability, with oil prices just one (important) component along with costs and capital intensity.Current environment:* The War in Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not analogous to that 2004-2014 period. This is an acute geopolitical disruption.* Therefore, the framework we used over 2004-2014 has its limitations. Most notably, the sudden, dramatic jump in oil prices could mean that absolute levels do not need to reach the heights implied in the table on the right.* It also suggests that “Super Vol” remains the better framing for energy commodity markets, including crude oil, oil products, and global spot LNG prices.* Be wary of perma bears and perma bulls! For the bears: cycles have to play out. For bulls: it is always a cycle.Exhibit 1: “Super-Spike” oil demand destruction frameworkSource: Bloomberg, EIA, Federal Reserve, Veriten.SLIDE 4: What Advance Warning Signs Are We Watching?* Bull to bear can happen quickly and unexpectedly…July to December 2008 saw WTI drop from over $140/bbl to under $40/bbl.* How can one differentiate between the July 2007 collapse of two Bear Stearns credit funds and the March 2023 issues with Silicon Valley Bank?* So why worry this time? The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is simply intolerable if measured in months rather than weeks. The Age of Drones is a game changer, as we see in Russia-Ukraine.* Fortress balance sheet, understanding controls and contracts, and aiming to not only survive but thrive during turmoil is the goal.SLIDE 5: How Does Iran Impact The Profitability CycleKey points:* It remains our view that traditional energy is firmly within a new profitability super-cycle that began in 2021 and would be expected to last 10+ years.* Structural profitability cycles are inherently long-term in nature, 10-15 years up, 10-15 years down. The prior downcycle ran from a 2010 peak to a 2020 trough.* Within the structural up or down cycles, numerous mini-cycles occur along the way. We believe 2025 marked a “normal” trough following a 2.5 years mini-downcycle.* We rejected “oil glut” arguments that have prevailed since Liberation Day (April 2025). We agree that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz renders impossible a true accounting of who was right—oil glutters or us.Current environment:* We have been surprised by the fact that capital discipline at the sector level has remained intact.* A true, multi-year upcycle would undoubtedly test discipline. But let's judge it as we go: so far, so good.* The main risk to seeing a “deep trough” (as opposed to normal) would be an extended closure of the Strait and a collapse in the global economy. We take this risk seriously.* The best case scenario for the profitability cycle would be a quick re-opening that ensured limited adverse global GDP impacts.Exhibit 2: Traditional energy sector profitabilitySource: Bloomberg, FactSet, VeritenSLIDE 6: Does The War Change Regional CAPEX Preferences?* There are no absolutes…it is all opportunity specific.* Oil exploration: Algeria vs UK North Sea circa 1991-1994.* Natural gas import infrastructure: New York state (Appalachia) versus Germany (Russia).* Many areas of the Middle East will attract capital irrespective of how this plays out.* Between COVID, Russia-Ukraine, and now Strait of Hormuz, supply chain security will remain ascendent as an issue. Positive for NAM, power, energy source diversification (new and old tech).SLIDE 7: What Impact Is There On Our Power Surge View?* If a general financial/credit crisis materializes, this is a sector that commonly uses leverage and is now in growth mode.* There will be winners and there will be losers.* Execution: Understanding contracts, supply chains, and liquidity are all critical.* At the end of the day, Power Surge we think persists beyond and through this war due to the need to grow power generation to address aging western world grids, industrial reshoring, electrification, and AI & digital transformation.⚡️On A Personal Note: Super-Spike ReactionsFor On A Personal Note, we refer you to the video where Arjun further reflects on his March 30, 2005 “Super-Spike period may be upon us” report.

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.We recorded this video podcast on Wednesday, March 11. As we think everyone by now realizes, the Strait Hormuz is a critical bottleneck to not only crude oil exports from the region but also LNG from Qatar. We have no idea how long the current war will last. The longer it goes, the greater the risk of a painful energy crisis materializing. We do not think that fact is lost on anyone that is participating in or observing the conflict.In this kind of very acute situation, an energy crisis would be bad for everyone be it citizens, governments, and even traditional energy companies over the long run as whatever benefit accrues from short term price appreciation would likely be lost from future economic weakness. No reasonable person in and around the energy sector is rooting for war. Even if shipping were to resume in coming days or weeks out of the Straight, we suspect the realization of what has long been considered a “worse case” geopolitical risk for oil markets—and now LNG—will motivate countries to pursue changes that mitigate this risk of future disruptions.This week we have two key messages: (1) we revisit our “Super-Spike” oil demand destruction framework we first rolled out in March 2005 at Goldman Sachs. It was a career call for us. The basic points of our analysis we think stand the test of time. (2) we discuss various diversification opportunities that we think countries will or should take to reduce the risk of future disruptions long after this current crisis has hopefully abated.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email. Also available on https://veriten.com.SLIDE 1: Cover SlideSLIDE 2: Strait of Hormuz: Long-Term Impacts On Oil, LNG* How will it be secured in an age of drones?* Inverse COVID: Refreshing our oil demand destruction framework.* Baseload energy diversification opportunities:* US Natural Gas: Lots of growth, where to invest?* Coal: A base-load domestic fuel, why not an EU comeback?* Nuclear: Back in vogue, but how long to grow again in US/EU?* Considerations: (1) What's real, what's hype? (2) Where in value chain to invest? (3) Who do you trust to allocate capital?SLIDE 3: Revisiting Our Oil “Super-Spike” FrameworkKey points:* We used the US since it has sizeable demand and freely floating retail gasoline prices.* Wider economy structurally outperforms gasoline.* But that means a much higher nominal price is required to destroy demand versus a prior cycle.* Gasoline demand is highly inelastic.* Both absolute price and rate of change are relevant.How to read the table/graph:* The graph shows historic gasoline spending (demand x retail price) relative to personal consumer expenditures.* Retail gasoline price equals the crude oil price + refining margin (to turn crude oil into gasoline) + gasoline taxes + “all other” (retail margin + other costs).* The table holds retail margin plus all other as constant and shows sensitivities to varying levels of gasoline spending as a % of PCE and refining margins.Exhibit 1: “Super-Spike” oil demand destruction frameworkSource: Bloomberg, EIA, Veriten.SLIDE 4: US Natural Gas: Lots of Growth, Where to Invest?US natural gas markets have doubled over past 20 years and are on-track to grow substantially over next decade. US natural gas resource is plentiful; infrastructure-enabled access to higher-valued end markets is critical.Exhibit 2: Global demand for US natural gasSource: EIA, Veriten.Exhibit 3: Gas value chain CROCISource: FactSet, VeritenSLIDE 5: Coal: A Baseload Domestic Fuel, EU Comeback?Growth in coal in China has swamped the reduction in EU and US coal use. We see no reason the EU & US could not, at a minimum, reverse the declines seen over the last 25 years. It's a drop in the bucket! Moving factories from the EU & US to China is net negative for carbon emissions, geopolitical security, and labor markets in the EU and US.Exhibit 4: Size of global power marketsSource: Energy Institute, VeritenExhibit 5: Growth in coal consumptionSource: Energy Institute, VeritenSLIDE 6: Nuclear: Back In Vogue, But How Long To Grow?Nuclear is again recognized as an important baseload fuel that can favorably add to system diversification. China is growing rapidly versus stagnation in the US and decline in EU. What opportunities exist to improve execution in the developed world? What is the viability (vs hype) of advanced technologies to boost growth?Exhibit 6: Nuclear generation by country/regionSource: Energy Institute, Veriten.⚡️On A Personal Note: 21 Years Later…

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using the blue Download buttons below.We are coming to you from Houston following my participation earlier this week at the Aspen Institute's Winter Energy Forum. This week we provide thoughts on Iran and the latest Middle East conflict. As usual, our focus is on what the long-term implications could be for companies and investors. Our ten initial long-term takeaways are as follows: 1 - Super Vol remains our commodity macro mantra. 2 - Middle East turmoil now as relevant to LNG (liquefied natural gas) as crude oil. 3 - Overhyped oil glut call. 4 - Energy source/technology diversification is a must for countries. 5 - Renewables and other new energies will continue to gain traction. 6 - The case for coal. 7- The case for Canada. 8 – Use unexpected free cash flow to reinforce fortress balance sheets. 9 - Undisruptable oil, gas, coal, copper, and critical minerals. 10 - Commerce over chaos and a brighter future for the Middle East.

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using the blue Download buttons below.We would encourage those of you that only listen to or watch the video podcasts to go and read our written post from last week (here), as we plan to be more inclusive of coal, copper, and critical minerals going forward to go along with our analysis and commentary on traditional and new energy and power. The title was “Undirsuptable” and focused on the significant profitability and growth opportunities we see in oil, gas, coal, copper, and critical minerals amidst the A.I. boom and our new era of geopolitical competition.This week we want to address a comment we received last weekend about how we think about terminal value in especially the legacy areas of energy; we will add coal and copper to that list. In a nutshell, that was the point of last week's post! Here's the punch line: Yes, we think traditional energy, coal, and copper companies are as a group deserving of terminal value recognition in their share prices especially for the leading companies that have most clearly demonstrated the potential for long-term returns and growth. We see the three key drivers of terminal value recognition as being (1) rising demand for all the raw material inputs to modern life; (2) double-digit full-cycle corporate-level returns on capital; (3) growth and risk taking.

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using the blue Download buttons below.We are still in road warrior mode, having only been at our primary residence for 13 of the first 45 days of 2026. Though I have to say, industry events this year in Miami, Whistler, and Cabo will leave many of you not feeling too sorry for us. So this week we have a very quick FAQ on the “take risk” messaging we've been using for 2026, and they are all around the theme of how to think about corporate strategy in a world of maturing US shale oil.

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.This week we have some fun with Bloomberg pictures we created that highlight the information one can sometimes glean about traditional energy from other commodity markets like copper and other metals and minerals. Through the first half of the 2000s super-cycle, we used to spend a bunch of time looking at copper, steel, and iron ore for hints on what was going on with China, global oil demand, and broader macro conditions. Like oil, those other areas are plays on global GDP growth and infrastructure expansion, CAPEX if you will. Today, we think we are in the early days of another one of those cycles via the combination of AI & digital transformation, expanding energy access, and growing geopolitical competition when it comes to both industrial reshoring and also military. We see each of those trends contributing to a virtuous GDP cycle. In the five pictures we go through today, we show that AI & tech started the trend, which then spread to power markets and most recently to copper and other metals. We think oil markets will be the next to benefit. Our base case view has been that oil is in a bottoming phase characterized by perhaps modest oversupply in 1H2026 but no oil glut, and that the next upcycle takes hold either later this year or 2027. Either way, now is the time for energy companies to be thinking about where they want to take risk in order to drive shareholder value for the decade ahead.

We were honored this week to welcome Ali Moshiri, CEO and President of Amos Global Energy, for a Special Edition COBT focused on Venezuela. Ali is the former President of Chevron Africa-Latin America and spent nearly 40 years at Chevron. He joined the company in 1978 as a petroleum engineer and went on to hold a wide range of senior technical, strategic, and leadership roles, ultimately overseeing Chevron's upstream operations across Africa and Latin America, including key positions in Venezuela and the broader region. Since retiring from Chevron in 2017, Ali has served as an advisor to Chevron and is currently President and CEO of Amos Global Energy, a Houston-based upstream independent focused on building a diversified portfolio across Latin America (with selective investments in the U.S. and Africa) through an integrated direct investment model. With deep operational, geopolitical, and strategic experience across global energy markets, Ali brings a unique and long-term perspective to today's discussion. In our conversation, Ali describes the on-the-ground conditions based on frequent travel to Venezuela and argues there is widespread misunderstanding of the country driven by years of narrative focus on migration, crime, and deportation rather than fundamentals. He details Venezuela's fundamentals including resource size and accessibility, proximity to the U.S., and the historical role of Gulf Coast heavy-oil refinery conversions and the light/heavy differential in making Venezuela barrels attractive. We discuss where development is likely to concentrate, the production ramp and capital needs, why in his mind the clearest lever for Venezuelan recovery is increasing oil output, workforce and execution constraints, the role of service companies, and who is most likely to invest first. Ali notes the key to mobilizing capital is a credible public-private partnership structure that can be written into a term sheet, alongside securing a lead private investor. He explains China's presence as largely commercial and loan driven, and Russia's as more geopolitical, and he doesn't expect either to materially expand or compete for incremental assets. We explore why prioritizing stability through a managed transition (including Venezuela's Vice President, and now Acting President, Delcy Rodríguez's role) is essential to convert investor interest into commitment, and he frames the recent vote more as a referendum than a fully competitive election, with a later phase needed for a truly democratic process. We touch on OPEC's incentives to keep Venezuela “inside the tent,” where near-term investment should concentrate, why midstream is less attractive today, the longer-term upside in gas and LNG, and much more. We ended by asking Ali for his ten-year outlook on global oil demand and the sources of future supply. As mentioned, details about Venezuela's reform of the Organic Law on Hydrocarbons are linked here. We greatly appreciate Ali for sharing his candid insights into a complex situation. The Veriten team shared a few quick comments to kick off the show. Mike Bradley flagged two themes: commodities volatility has dominated the year so far, with oil and gas prices swinging sharply due to geopolitical issues, while metals and Bitcoin have hit highs and then pulled back. He also noted that during recent Q4 earnings calls, oil majors and early-reporting service companies have faced many questions about Venezuela, but few have clear answers, making the discussion with Ali very timely. Arjun Murti added that global oil demand continues to grow, and while U.S. shale should hold a long-term plateau, it's unlikely to repeat its outsized contribution to global supply growth, raising the question of what comes after shale. He pointed to Venezuela's long-term potential, recalling the suc

Today we were delighted to welcome Jim Murchie, Co-Founder, Co-Portfolio Manager, and CEO of Energy Income Partners (EIP). Prior to co-founding EIP, Jim's career in power and electricity included establishing Lawhill Capital, serving as a Managing Director at Tiger Management focused primarily on energy, commodities, and related equities, and working as a Principal at Sanford C. Bernstein, where he was a top-ranked energy analyst. He began his career at British Petroleum and holds an MA in Energy Planning from Harvard University. We were thrilled to connect with Jim for an insightful discussion on the power landscape. We covered a lot of ground in our conversation, starting with how EIP navigates macro and market volatility by focusing on regulated monopolies and pipelines with stable, cost-plus earnings, Jim's career path and research philosophy, and how EIP's focus on utilities and pipelines emerged from investor demand for real assets and dividends. Jim provides a history lesson on power markets and how deregulated wholesale markets evolved, Enron-era manipulation, and the early-2000s gas plant buildout that ultimately led to overcapacity and merchant distress. We dig into the three-bucket framework for customer bills (generation, transmission, and distribution/other) and why the public debate often overemphasizes generation, while the biggest driver of residential bill increases has been distribution/other costs (bucket three). Jim explains that the third bucket on power bills often acts as a catch-all for costs that are neither generation nor transmission, even when they aren't distribution in the literal last-mile sense, and that greater billing and policy transparency can clarify what's exogenous versus what's controllable. He describes how the impact of data centers can differ between vertically integrated cost-plus states and deregulated commodity-market states, and unpacks behind-the-meter realities, including how hyperscalers often prefer a grid connection for reliability but still deploy backup generation. We discuss the administration's push for hyperscalers to sign long-term contracts to enable new generation build, policymakers' heightened focus on avoiding blackouts, and why this is often a peaking problem more than a supply problem. Jim emphasizes how incentives, rather than intent, drive investment behavior in regulated versus deregulated markets, challenges the narrative that data centers are inherently driving higher power prices, and highlights the economic value of reliability investments and peak-load management in shaping long-term system costs. It was a wide-ranging discussion, and we look forward to continuing the dialogue with Jim in a future episode. As you will hear, we reference a few items in the discussion. Please find the links below: Energy Income Partners Report: “Power Struggle I – How False Political Narratives Cloud the Drivers of Higher Residential Electricity Prices” (linked here)Energy Income Partners Report: “Power Struggle II – How Market Structure Affects Wholesale Power Price Increases” (linked here)Veriten's COBT episode featuring Thomas Popik, Foundation for Resilient Societies (linked here)Mike Bradley opened the discussion by noting that the 10-year U.S. bond yield looks to be the least volatile asset class at this juncture, with the 10-year bond yield trading very rangebound (around 4.25%). The dominant market theme this week, and for much of the year, has been extreme volatility across commodities (Bitcoin, Energy, and Metals). On the crude oil market front, WTI price is trading at ~$63/bbl, with volatility elevated over t

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.We are just back from nine days on the road across the western U.S. and British Columbia. A key theme we highlighted at both the Goldman Sachs energy conference in Miami earlier this month and at a CIBC dinner panel last week in Whistler was the need for companies to take risk. Three points we discuss in the video podcast: (1) Why the “take risk” messaging now?: (2) The distinction between large-cap and SMID-cap risk taking; and (3) SMID-cap opportunities.

We continue our Setting Course series this week by welcoming Arjun Murti back into the SmarterMarkets™ studio. Arjun is Partner at Veriten and Publisher of "Super-Spiked" on Substack. David Greely sits down with Arjun to discuss the big themes he sees in energy for 2026, including the electrical power super cycle.

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.2026 kicked off with the dramatic news of the US's incursion into Venezuela and capture of its president Nicolas Maduro. Protests against the ruling regime in Iran have also captured the world's attention. We will aim to put those events into the context of our long-term oil macro view, which of course is our focus at Super-Spiked. As a reminder and as a disclaimer, we look at these events through our lens as an energy equity research analyst and a current partner at Veriten. There is no commentary in this video about specific companies.⚡️On A Personal Note: RIP Bob Weir

Today we had the pleasure of welcoming back Rob West, Founder and Lead Analyst at Thunder Said Energy, continuing our tradition of kicking off the year with his perspectives. Rob has joined us on COBT six times in our history and has earned the honor of holding the lead-off spot in 2022, 2024, 2025, and now 2026. He is a long-time energy analyst and provides unique, thought-provoking, and economic-driven insights into energy research and technologies. Rob launched Thunder Said in 2019 and previously served at Sanford C. Bernstein and Partners Capital. Based in Estonia, he brings a valuable global lens to the energy landscape. One of Veriten's highlights from 2025 was having Rob join the firm as a Senior Advisor. We were delighted to visit with Rob to reflect on 2025 and explore what the future might hold for energy in 2026. In our conversation, Rob reflects on the shift in the dominant energy-market narrative from net zero and the energy transition (2021 – 2023), to geopolitical security post Russia-Ukraine, and now overwhelmingly toward AI and power demand. We discuss the outlook for sharply higher global defense spending by 2030 and its potential benefits to infrastructure, industry, AI, smart grids, and competitiveness. Rob outlines a broader recalibration of energy “truths” entering 2026 including solar growth potentially flattening, EV growth slowing or declining, the LNG glut narrative being questioned, and oil demand continuing to grow at roughly ~+1 MMbbl/d per year. Rob shares his outlook on global LNG, highlighting a wave of new supply that is frequently delayed, Russian LNG logistics constraints, Australia's domestic market interventions, and how policy changes in the U.S. and China are contributing to slower EV sales. We explore whether rising marginal coal mining costs in China could translate into higher Chinese power prices, China's energy strategy and diversification, and the copper outlook, including potential demand headwinds if solar and EV growth slows in 2026, alongside the importance of “primary analysis.” Rob highlights why flexible grids and better utilization are the biggest levers to reducing power system costs and explains his rationale for a more cautious U.S. shale outlook, remarking that oil markets are now influenced less by OPEC policy and more by U.S. foreign policy pressure. We closed by asking Rob for his biggest wildcard for 2026, which he identified as a collapse/fracturing of Russia as a state, with major implications for resource markets and control of assets. It was an insightful discussion and we can't thank Rob enough for sharing his time and thoughts with us. Mike Bradley and Arjun Murti both joined from the Goldman Sachs Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference in Miami. Mike opened by emphasizing that two of the major market themes in 2025 were AI/data center and electricity demand growth. He noted that most investors still believe these two themes will continue to resonate in 2026, and will probably need to, especially at current valuations. On the energy commodity front, WTI oil price is up ~2% so far this year, while U.S. natural gas price is down ~8% on a warmer weather outlook. Across broader equities, the S&P 500 is up ~1% this year while the DJIA is up ~2%. The best performing sectors so far this year have been energy, financial, industrial, and materials, while the underperformers have been technology and telecom. On the energy equity front, he noted that last weekend's events in Venezuela have lifted (materially in some cases) shares of U.S. oil majors, large-cap international oil services and Gulf Coast refiners, while E&Ps have been the underperformers. The wide divergence in energy equity performance this week is mostly due to optimism of an infrastructure/oil services/oil production revival in Venezuela which may be premature. He added that hedge funds could be a culprit for these outsized moves mostly because they weren't positi

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.Last week's video podcast was a look back on our Big Themes for 2025 that we highlighted in January (here). We did pretty well with the 3 main themes, but not so good on 4 sub-topics we teased. We will aim to be better targeted on what we highlight for 2026. This week we evaluate how we did on our “Top 10 Tactical Calls” that we published in late January (here). We use a “Good Call” or “Bad Call” framework to assess how we did. Spoiler alert: Overall we did well, but were far from perfect. Finally, we do a broader assessment on how we are feeling about major Super-Spiked themes and topic areas after what has now been 4 years of publishing. What are we proud of, what if anything are we not, and what are we thinking looking ahead. We heard from many of you that appreciated that we did a proper assessment of our calls. Someone even said we were a tough self-grader. It baffles us why everyone doesn't take this approach. Companies put out targets or promises, Wall Street analysts make calls and publish outlook reports, academia and policy shops do their own version of opinion making. All those groups, in our humble opinion, would benefit from doing their own self-assessment. People like them! It's popular. It builds credibility and accountability. This will be our final Super-Spiked of 2025. We will return most likely on January 10th. On behalf of everyone associated with Super-Spiked and Veriten, we wish you and your families a Happy Hanukkah, Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, and a great Holiday Season!!!

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, this week we are including for the first time a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using blue Download button below.In this week's video podcast we take a look back at the major themes we highlighted at the start of this year in a written post on January 11, 2025 (here). The 3 major topic areas were (1) energy scenario normalization; (2) power; and (3) how we thought about various energy sources and technologies. We had also teased several sub-themes about crude oil, China, M&A, and US/Canada policy. With nearly a year's hindsight, we did decently well on the three major topic areas, but left a lot to be desired on the four bonus topics. We believe it is always a good idea with those kind of posts to revisit how things played out.

It is our honor to welcome back Governor Mike Dunleavy of Alaska. We last hosted the Governor on COBT in May of 2023 (episode linked here), and there has been much to cover since our last visit. Governor Dunleavy is Alaska's 12th Governor and was first elected in 2018 (and again in 2022). He moved to Alaska in 1983 and served as a teacher, principal, and superintendent in Arctic communities before his 5-year term as a State Senator from 2013 to 2018. Throughout his career, Governor Dunleavy has been committed to opening Alaska to new business and investment. We were thrilled to host the Governor to explore the latest energy developments in Alaska, what's top of mind for the state, and more. In our conversation, we explore Alaska as an “energy laboratory” given the state's unique mix of energy production, policy, federal lands, abundance of water, technology, and geopolitics. We discuss the impact of shifting federal administrations on Alaska, the scale and federal ownership of its land, and the statehood mandate to develop its resources to fund government operations. We examine the need for legislative reform to address the problems of both “lawfare” and permitting, the growing opportunity around rare earths and critical minerals in Alaska, the benefits of the federal government as an equity partner, mining as a national security issue, post-COVID workforce shifts, and the renewed importance of trade work and skilled labor. Gov. Dunleavy shares his perspective on affordability and energy prices in Alaska, current issues around the need for more gas supply and potential LNG imports, and the Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline (AGLNG Glenfarne Project). He outlines his vision for Alaska's future as a premier location for AI data centers and its ambition to be the data transportation capital of the world. We touch on Alaska's desire to “create the future” rather than simply react to it, the role and gatekeeping power of the Army Corps of Engineers in 404 water permits, and Alaska's strategic position as “America's fort” in the Arctic. We also discuss the Alaska Sustainable Energy Conference, with its fifth iteration taking place in May 2026, which Veriten is excited to attend. We greatly enjoyed hosting Governor Dunleavy and look forward to staying in touch. To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted that markets continue to be volatile from week to week. On the bond market front, the 10-year bond yield has traded down to under 4% on optimism that Kevin Hassett looks to be the frontrunner for Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Hassett is considered more dovish and so markets are responding positively, at least initially, for the potential of additional interest rate cuts in 2026. On the broader equity market front, the DJIA was also up 500-600 points on optimism that more interest rate cuts are coming in 2026 despite US economic readings being a bit mixed. On the oil market front, WTI price is now trading under $58/bbl due to continued concerns of a global oil oversupply situation in 2026 (anywhere from 2- 4mmbpd) and potentially into 2027. JPM jumped further onto the bearish oil bandwagon this week, indicating that oil prices in 2027 could trade under $40/bbl. He closed by noting that some initial momentum for a Russia/Ukraine peace plan has also weighed on oil prices this week. Thanks again to Governor Dunleavy for sharing his time and for a fantastic discussion. Please stay tuned for a Special Edition COBT episode publishing on Thanksgiving Day! Our best to you all.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We are coming to you this week from the Middle East. We are in the middle of a great trip that has been put together by the Center on Global Energy Policy, where we are an advisory board member. As of this recording, we have spent time in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Riyadh, with 2 more stops still to come. We are going to have to keep this video short amidst a packed schedule, so will limit our comments to some quick macro takeaways on (1) oil markets; (2) China's manufacturing dominance; and (3) other energy sources.

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, this week we are including for the first time a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using blue Download button below.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck using the blue Download button below.This week we dive into the global macro picture around the power super cycle theme, what we are calling Power Surge! There is a lot of attention especially here in the U.S. about the domestic opportunity set. We share that enthusiasm but view the power super cycle as a global theme as well.Some of the major questions we hope to address either in this video podcast or in future weeks include: Does a power super-cycle imply an acceleration in global GDP growth like we saw 20 years ago with the China/BRICs expansion theme? Will a power super-cycle lift all energy boats or just some? What might be the drivers of different energy sources doing better or worse than expected in the coming decade? And finally what are the best ways for corporates and investors to play the power super-cycle theme? This week we focus on: (1) global trends in power vs oil demand; (2) regional variations in growth. Key messages: (1) the idea that we will have a power super-cycle but plateauing oil demand is non-sensical...both will grow (2) US appears to be joining notable emerging markets as a pro-growth region.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We have just wrapped up an especially heavy 3-week stretch of board, management, and industry meetings. Included have been various meetings in and around the power sector. As someone who has spent his career on the other side of energy--i.e., oil & gas--it has been a lot of fun ramping up on the power side of the business. Historically oil & gas and power have been essentially two completely separate industries, each with their own macro drivers, corporate outlooks, and analyst coverage. And while today many differences of course remain, there are a growing number of areas of convergence. In this short video, we will give a few thoughts from our recent travels that we will expand upon in coming months. There are five points we want to highlight:First, we think energy is in the early days of the 3rd major super-cycle in our lifetime. The first was the Arab Oil Embargo years of the 1970s and the second was the Chia/BRICs expansion of the 2000s. Both were at their core crude oil market events. Geopolitical security was the dominant narrative of the 1970s. Billion-person scale emerging market (EM) demand growth characterized the latter. The current super-cycle marries both drivers but it is power, rather than crude oil, that is at the heart of this era. AI datacenters rightfully get a lot of attention. But aging developed market grids that need new investment is also an important trend. Perhaps most importantly, the substantial unmet energy needs of the other 7 billion people on Earth will arguably be the greatest driver of global power demand. This super-cycle is all about global power needs on multiple fronts. Second point and a key lesson from the mis-guided “The Energy Transition” era is that the world clearly is going to need all forms of energy, including many newer technologies where the timing of scaling economics is still uncertain. Examples of that last point are nuclear SMRs and enhanced geothermal to name just two. Power is an enabling driver of crude oil demand in the developing world. We suspect this is most visible in Africa today as an example. It is interesting and ironic: growth in renewables power is boosting oil demand.Third point: energy sources and technologies are not in competition with each other for a finite pool of demand. That is the energy substitution argument being trotted out by those that in recent years believed in The Energy Transition. Rather, relative economics, reliability, and geopolitical security are going to cause periods of strong and weaker demand at various points of time for different areas. As an example, LNG priced at world oil prices we do not think displaces domestic coal demand in places like India and China. But it is a complementary and diversifying fuel for power generation which is important to having a healthy power market. And new areas like LNG trucks can help reduce dependence on crude oil imports from what would otherwise be the case. Again, it is additive, not substitutive. Fourth, where crude oil cycles are inherently global in nature, power is typically highly local or regional, but today also has a global overlay via EM growth. Fifth, we are perhaps most optimistic to see major energy consumers, in particular Big Tech and Big Industrials, proactively engaging in energy macro and policy discussions. We see this at Veriten via an expanding and increasingly diversified client base. We see it in the many meetings we have attended. This in our view significantly raises the odds that we move away from the divisive rhetoric and policies that characterized The Energy Transition era to one that appropriately prioritizes energy's natural hierarchy of needs.

Rory Johnston welcomes Arjun Murti, a partner at Veriten and former Goldman Sachs equity research analyst with 33 years of experience covering the full energy value chain. Murti discusses his Substack, SuperSpiked, explaining that the branding harkens back to the 2004 call for a super cycle, though the current framework emphasizes multi-year "super volatility" rather than a new permanent price state. The experts dive into the core short-term commodity debate, analyzing the divergence in demand forecasts between the "big three" agencies and critiquing the inconsistency between high oversupply forecasts and only short-term low price predictions. Murti firmly pushes back on the peak oil demand narrative, arguing that continued growth is illogical to deny given the massive unmet energy needs of billions globally. They explore how companies, particularly US-based EMPs, should lean into current market pessimism by prioritizing "fortress balance sheets," proactively managing costs, and protecting their returns on capital. This insightful conversation offers a differentiated, optimistic view of the sector, framing the present environment as a time for strategic risk-taking rather than capital destruction, supported by long-term belief in economic and energy growth

Today was a truly incredible day. As you know, COBT began in the spring of 2020 with the original mission of trying to share better and more informed energy macro perspectives with the energy-curious world. Over the past five and a half years, it has evolved to become something much bigger, a platform to share a wide range of energy perspectives. Today marked a watershed moment in the history of energy education. As noted in the official press release linked here, Bob Zorich, Partner and Co-Founder of EnCap Investments, made an extraordinarily generous donation to Arizona State University with the sole purpose of advancing energy education. Bob is an alumnus of ASU's Thunderbird School of Global Management, and the investment will directly support energy education and innovation, advancing practical, fact-based solutions to global energy challenges. For those of you who are regular listeners or viewers, you may remember we hosted Dr. Michael Crow, President of ASU, on the podcast in September (episode linked here). What's particularly exciting about ASU is the University's commitment to reimagining education, scaling access, and transforming workforce development. Bob Zorich, as a highly accomplished energy business leader, is passionate about improving energy education and seems to have found a phenomenal partner in ASU. In this week's segment, we broadcast live from ASU's rollout of the new energy education initiative here in Houston. We caught up with Michael and Bob for a quick conversation on a very busy day to discuss the initiative, Bob's passion for expanding energy knowledge, ASU's commitment to fostering problem-solving, the university's diverse student body and global reach, and more. You'll also see Michael and Bob's panel from the event discussing the initiative in detail. We greatly appreciate Michael and Bob for including Veriten in this exciting event. As a wrap up, we are delighted to share that this week marks our 300th regularly scheduled COBT episode. We appreciate the Veriten community and the many great guests who have joined us along the way. We look forward to the next 300 episodes and where they will take us. All we can promise is that we'll continue following our curiosity wherever it leads us and remain committed to letting our guests openly talk about their perspectives so you can form your own views on the complex energy, power, and environmental issues of the day. Our best to you all!

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We are going to go back to the future this week to discuss the seemingly verboten topic of “sustainability.” Believe it or not, it is actually one of the most asked for topics at the various industry, board and management meetings we have spoken at this Fall. It's never the first question and usually comes towards the end when a brave sole that likely works in this area asks “where do you think the topic of sustainability is headed?” As with everything we do, our focus is on how energy companies should think about the topic with a view toward the decade ahead—not today, not just the next 2.5 years, but what will stand the test time and the inevitable pendulum swings from what investors and politicians claim they want.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We are in the midst of another heavy travel stretch so it's going to be a short video this week. Three quick topics this week: (1) Takeaways from the recent energy outlooks that have been published? (2) Contrarian views on recent data points; (3) Why we think the current oil glut debate misses the bigger picture.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.For the past month or so we have been pushing back on the “oil glut” narrative and the pervasive oil gloom that has existed really since Liberation Day in early April of this year, which coincided with news of an accelerated unwind of OPEC quota cuts. Another week has gone by. We are now nearly at the end of September and firmly in the post summer, pre-winter “shoulder months” period for refinery runs that in prior periods of weak balances has seen crude soften. At least through the September 24th recording date of this video, crude oil prices are hanging in there around the mid-$60s.This week we check-in on where traditional energy stands in terms of growth and profitability, which are the drivers of absolute and relative equity performance. As we have previously noted, the biggest challenge the sector faces is not unfavorable narratives from leading macro agencies or environmental activists, but a now nearly 2-year period of EPS underperformance and a softening in profitability metrics. Our two key messages this week are (1) we believe we are now much closer to the trough of what we think has been a 2-2.5-year mini-downcycle following peak oil prices seen immediately after the start of the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022. and (2) As a result of where current profitability is and where we think it is headed in coming years, Energy should close the gap between its current discounted 3% market cap weighting in favor of its 5% earnings weighting in the S&P 500.It remains our view that 2020 marked the bottom of a structural downcycle that began in 2008 and that 2025 will ultimately prove to be year 5 of a structurally better period for profitability that we expect to last through at least the end of this decade. We reiterate our long-standing call that the energy sector will return to a market cap weighting in the S&P 500 closer to its historic 8%-10% range.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We have started a heavy Fall travel schedule, with our annual talk at the Oxford Energy Seminar last week and a corporate event in the Rocky Mountains this past week. We wanted to provide a trio of “long-takes” that are jumping out at us: (1) a burst in energy policy rationality and normalization that is being seen from three areas that were previously all in in "The Energy Transition"--California, Canada, and the IEA. (2) we continue to see mounting evidence that fears of an "oil glut" are way overdone, though we likely still need to get through potential shoulder month, seasonal softness over the next 4-8 weeks. Regardless, we believe we are in a bottoming phase for oil-leveraged energy equities which have been very out of favor. (3) A reminder that it is the outlook for returns and growth, not “peak demand” or “oil glut” narratives the IEA or Street analysts, that will drive energy equities.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.As all of you that have been watching our video podcasts or reading our posts over the years by now surely know, our focus at Super-Spiked and at Veriten has been on the long-term outlook for the energy sector, not the shorter-term oil price guessing game. But in recent weeks, we have not been able to resist weighing in on what we think is an excessively bearish consensus view of oil prices—the perceived massive oil glut—that has been weighing heavily on energy equity sentiment since the early April so-called "Liberation Day" tariff announcements that coincided with OPEC+ accelerating the unwind of a series of voluntary production cuts. That double whammy has driven an overwhelming consensus sentiment to be bearish oil demand while also assuming a surge in both non-OPEC and OPEC crude supply would drive oil prices to $50 or lower in 2025. But we are now 5.5 months past that early April bearish shift, and crude oil prices, at least so far, are proving far more resilient than expected even as OPEC+ has made incremental moves to unwind production cuts. Last week in a written post (here), we linked the excessive bearish near-term sentiment to a similar overhang that exists on the long-term oil view, where there is still a lingering let's call it a "net zero world" overhang that crude oil demand will peak in coming years or at best have minimal growth. We have observed that using OPEC Research analyses, rather than the IEA as a baseline, shows far less cyclical or structural crude oil oversupply. Yes, there is a still some softness that might be expected for coming months, but nothing like the "oil glut" that everyone fears.This week we follow up on last week's written post on this topic to set the record straight on a couple of items, address pushbacks to our pushback to anti-oil and gas macro biases in short-term analyses, and raise some new points on the near- and long-term oil macro outlook. There are 4 major areas we will discuss: (1) how we are thinking about OPEC+'s quota unwind; (2) China oil demand; (3) the role of US shale going forward; and (4) is there any chance the oil glut bears could still be proven correct.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We have a bonus Super-Spiked video podcast on a week we were not expecting to publish due to a college drop off. But last weekend we couldn't resist digging into trying to understand why crude oil prices have been far more resilient in the face of unexpected OPEC quota increases and a seemingly lackluster economic backdrop. Our punchline is that while we agree there is risk of oil price softness in the back-half of this year and early 2026, underlying crude oil supply/demand balances are not anywhere near as oversupplied as consensus fears. We believe fears of a crash and potential extended bear market are way overdone. We are also gaining confidence that by the time we get to 2H2026 and 2027, oil price risk shifts more meaningfully to the upside. The main points of difference in our more constructive outlook are (1) to disaggregate black crude oil from the more widely reported and followed overall liquids figures; and (2) to give greater consideration to OPEC Research's Monthly Oil Market Report versus the more broadly used equivalent report (Oil Market Report) from the IEA. Over the past month, we have published several posts (here, here, and here) that have examined the long-term outlook from various macro forecasting agencies, consultants, and oil companies. We conclude OPEC Research leads the pack on being most realistic and pragmatic and was least impacted by “net zero / energy transition” madness of the prior 4-5 years. That doesn't mean they are necessarily better at short-term supply/demand balances, but we don't think they should be entirely ignored or dismissed either. As a reminder, at Super-Spiked and Veriten, our focus is on the long-term outlook for energy markets and companies. We have zero interest in joining the short-term oil price guessing game that the Street and others tend to focus on. But in this case, the prevailing bearish narrative around crude oil is so pronounced and at odds with what we are seeing, we thought it worth commenting. It remains our view that prudent risk management suggests oil companies and investors should always be prepared for the potential to have a “normal” trough, which we would describe as low $50s for a 12-month period. Our message today is not to ignore that long-standing advice. But rather to recognize that sentiment is likely way too bearish and that medium- and longer-term risks are skewed toward better outcomes than consensus narratives suggest. Exhibit 1: Underlying “black crude oil” balances using OPEC's MOMR appears significantly less bearish than implied “liquids” oversupply using IEA OMR balancesSource: IEA, OPEC, Veriten.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we extend our “Obliterating Peak Oil Demand” series to take on other mainstream macro narratives with a focus on natural gas. We have to admit, it did not even cross our mind that the outlook for global gas demand was anything other than continued growth for the foreseeable future. In fact, there are a number of high-profile macro forecasters projecting a permanent peak in global natural gas demand by as soon as 2030 and in some cases the mid-2030s. This, in our view, is pure insanity. We will take the over, and in fact the way over, that global natural gas demand will grow for many, many decades into the future.Perhaps we were lulled into a false sense of presumed natural gas growth optimism based on what we think is a broad-based acceptance of US natural gas growth due to LNG export expansion and now AI-driven power demand growth. But we are realizing that a positive view of US growth is not necessarily extending to a positive view on global natural gas growth for some of the major macro forecasting agencies.The final topic we discuss this week is a warning to ignore energy macro forecasters that merely tweak prior "transition" assumptions by pushing them slightly out in time. It was an article in the Financial Times this past week that caught our attention on this front and we would strongly encourage energy executives, investors, and board members to simply ignore and pushback on energy macro outlooks that are not grounded in energy's natural hierarchy of needs, which acknowledges that energy availability and reliability is all everyone everywhere cares about. Macro forecasts that prioritize counting carbon should not be the basis for how to think about capital allocation.Before we dig in, two reminders. If you are listening to this on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, there is a corresponding video you can find on YouTube (here), Substack (here), or Veriten's website (here). And second, this will be our final Super-Spiked of the summer. We will return after Labor Day.Exhibit 1: We do not agree with energy macro forecasting groups that are calling for a peak in global gas demand by 2030 or 2035Source: Energy Institute, IEA, OPEC, Veriten.Exhibit 2: We do not agree with the projected sharp slowdown in global gas consumption growth made by some leading energy macro forecastersSource: Energy Institute, IEA, OPEC, Veriten.Peak natural gas even more non-sensical than oil* The idea that global natural gas demand will peak, or even slow, by 2030 is even more far-fetched than the oil debate.* Global power demand expected to grow at a healthy clip.* 24x7x365 requirement supports base-load natural gas, coal, nuclear.* Geothermal, while worth studying, is still unproven at scale; hydro is niche.* Solar + batteries will grow in areas with high solar radiation. Wind is also location specific.* Natural gas does need to compete on overall price/cost economics with alternatives.* Access to capital matters in natural gas, which lacks the mega caps seen in the oil value chain.Don't fall for “delayed transition” narratives* There is now broad-based recognition that the “easy energy transition”” is a bad joke that has adverse societal consequences.* Our Obliterating Peak Oil Demand series, which we have extended to coal and natural gas, illustrates the absurdity.* The mindset that everyone deserves to be energy rich is gaining in acceptance.* What to watch: (1) With upcoming high profile energy outlooks, watch for “delayed transition” language, which is a cop out. (2) If you are a corporate executive, board member, or investor, don't fall for it in making capital allocation decisions.Exhibit 3: Don't fall for “delayed transition” narrativesSource: Financial Times.⚡️ On A Personal Note: Summer Reading List

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.Last week we did a check-in on how the answers to the tactical questions for 2025 we posed back in January were faring (here). This week we go through our Big Themes for 2025 which we had also highlighted back in January (here). We look at what's in and what's out through the lens of macro frameworks, public policy implications, and finally corporate strategy and energy sub-sector outlooks. We will publish our final summer Super-Spiked next week before taking a 2-week hiatus until after Labor Day. BIG THEMES FOR 2025* Energy scenario normalization * Power surge: This generation's super-cycle * Energy sources and technologies MACRO FRAMEWORK IMPLICATIONS * Net Zero and “The Energy Transition” are out. Energy policies that will drive GDP growth and meeting energy's natural hierarchy of needs are in. * Solving for everyone on Earth someday becoming energy rich is in. Assuming people will choose to stay poor is out. * OPEC Research is in. Energy macro agencies and oil companies that were driven by “net zero” narratives are out (for now). What to watch: * BP Energy Outlook (Sep), IEA WEO (Oct) * Africa's significant TAM (total address market): Up to 60 million b/d of desired oil demand versus 5 million b/d todayPOLICY IMPLICATIONS * Energy policy that drives long-term affordability, reliability, and security are in. Policies that start with counting CO2 are out. * IRA is out. Meeting AI demand is in. * Some of the above is in. All of the above was never in. * Regions that are long energy resource should all be in, but some are still out (California) or not sufficiently in (Canada). What to watch: * US natural gas midstream infrastructure * Canada oil and natural gas export infrastructure * Reliability, affordability reforms in California, Western Europe CORPORATE IMPLACATIONS * Companies exposed to power value chain are in. Natural gas is in. Oil value chain is still out. * Solar + batteries are still in. Wind is out. * Nuclear is in. “Green” hydrogen is out. Geothermal hoping to be in. * IPPs are in. SMID oils (E&P, OFS) are out, though SMID OFS diversifying into power are in. * Companies driving new technology development in regions that are short energy resource are in… * …Companies that exist to exploit rich-world government subsidies in the name of CO2 accounting are out.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.This week we check-in on how our “Top 10 Tactical Questions for 2025” published on January 25, 2025 (here) are faring. MACRO ORIENTED (1) Will energy's S&P weighting increase in 2025? Original answer: Yes. Mid-year progress: Wrong so far, but narrative discussed is on-track. (2) Will we see energy outlooks from high-profile organizations stop treating “net zero” as if it were the defining issue? Original answer: Change is coming, but will take time and we'll get wishy washy language in 2025. Mid-year progress: This is on-track to happen more quickly than we anticipated. (3) Can oil become great again in 2025? Original answer: No, Super Vol not super-cycle remains our view. Mid-year progress: Correct so far. GEOPOLITICS & POLICY (4) Will the IRA be repealed, reformed, or left alone? Original answer: Reformed. Mid-year progress: Probably we are technically correct in that the IRA was not repealed, but it was so meaningfully gutted that it very much feels like it was repealed. (5) Will Trump make the Arctic great going forward? Original answer: Yes. Mid-year progress: Trump Administration is giving the Alaska/Arctic appropriate attention. SUB-SECTOR OUTLOOKS (6) Will power-exposed sectors lead the way in 2025? Original answer: Yes. Mid-year progress: Correct so far. (7) What new technology area are you watching more closely to break-out in 2025? Original answer: Autonomous driving. Mid-year progress: The “robo taxi” market is nascent but starting to expand to more areas. M&A (8) Will we see an acceleration of O&G firms enter power markets and, if so, how? Original answer: Yes and organic.Mid-year progress: To be determined. (9) Does the Venture Global IPO signal the tide is turning on energy sector capital formation? Original answer: Yes. Mid-year progress: Wrong so far. (10) Will we see a surprising mega merger in energy? Original answer: Yes. Mid-year progress: Hasn't happened yet.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.Last week we published a written post that took a fresh look at a long standing theme of ours “obliterating peak oil demand” (here). We dug into OPEC Research's most recent World Oil Outlook report (here) to compare OPEC's more optimistic view of long-term oil demand to more bearish forecasts from the IEA and frankly many other leading energy voices. Our own outlook is closely aligned with OPEC's in recognizing the massive unmet energy needs of the other 7 billion people on Earth. The idea that anyone can know today that oil demand is going to permanently peak within the next decade is something we push back hard on. That post has sparked a number of questions, five of which we will aim to address today.Our On A Personal Note this week remembers heavy metal pioneer Ozzy Osbourne, who passed away on July 21. I was fortunate to catch a Black Sabbath reunion tour in 2016.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We hope everyone enjoyed a great 4th of July holiday. This week we will start to flush out a new theme of ours, what we are calling “some of the above, depending on country and region" as the better macro and policy framing for energy. It will undoubtedly get shortened to simply "some of the above" and is meant to reflect that the energy sources and technologies that might make sense for one country or region might not make sense for another. Super-Spiked was created as a protest to that narrow definition of "The Energy Transition" that said all areas must quickly switch only into renewables + EVs and out of fossil fuels within an absurdly short time frame. That movement never made sense and we think is being relegated to the dustbin of history. But its replacement with terms like "all of the above" and "energy pragmatism" are imperfect and imprecise in a different direction. Pragmatism can mean many different things to many different people and both phrases imply an "anything goes" mindset that frankly isn't how countries or companies are going to act. Instead, practically speaking, the choices that will be made are "some of the above, depending on country or region."

The global energy landscape is shifting right now. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, debates about peak oil demand, and waning support for climate action in some parts of the world are challenging long-held assumptions about the pace and scale of the energy transition. Confronting these complex challenges requires an understanding of the forces that drive energy markets and prices.  So where is global energy consumption headed? Are reports of oil's demise exaggerated? And as countries prioritize energy security and economic growth, what does "pragmatism" really mean for the energy transition? This week, Jason Bordoff speaks with Arjun Murti about the state of global energy markets and of the energy transition. Arjun is a partner with Veriten, an energy research and investment firm. He also publishes the Super-Spiked newsletter. Previously, Arjun served as co-director of Americas equity research for Goldman Sachs. Prior to that, he was a buy-side equity research analyst at J.P. Morgan Investment Management. He also serves on the Center on Global Energy Policy advisory board. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is executive producer.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.Ahead of what will be a holiday week off to celebrate America's Birthday, we have five thoughts we wanted to share this week around key themes, research ideas, and some what ifs that we are thinking about:(1) What will it take to get the traditional energy sector, in particular those exposed to the crude oil value chain going again? (2) Private versus public company mindset and opportunities,(3) Domestic coal.(4) "Some of the above" as the correct macro framework for specific regions.(5) A changing Middle East.

As tensions rise in the Middle East, former Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass assess the responses and global ramifications. Payne's Courtney Garcia and Mike Santoli weigh the market's reaction, while Arjun Murti of Veriten breaks down curious reaction in the energy markets. Tim Seymour analyzes moves in the dollar, gold, and global positioning. Plus, our Phil LeBeau reports on Tesla's strong stock move today after the weekend's rollout of its Robotaxi in Austin, TX.

Today we're excited to welcome Patrick White, Group Lead for Fusion Energy Safety and Regulation at the Clean Air Task Force (CATF), and Nicholas McMurray, Managing Director of International and Nuclear Policy at ClearPath. Patrick recently joined CATF and leads the organization's international working group focused on fusion energy safety, waste, and non-proliferation. He holds a Ph.D. in Nuclear Science and Engineering from MIT and previously served as Research Director at the Nuclear Innovation Alliance. Niko is an expert in industrial policy, nuclear energy policy, and regulation. He has been with ClearPath since 2019 and formerly served as a Materials Engineer at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). A few weeks ago, Veriten partnered with CATF and ClearPath to publish a paper calling out reforms to NRC processes and procedures to accelerate the deployment of new nuclear reactors; establishing a more efficient regulatory framework for new and advanced reactors (paper linked here). We were thrilled to host Patrick and Niko for a discussion on the paper and broader trends in the nuclear landscape. Brett Rampal, Senior Director of Nuclear and Power Strategy at Veriten, joined for the conversation and led Veriten's contribution to the paper. In our discussion, Patrick and Niko share background on their organizations' missions and long-standing support for nuclear. We explore the need to demystify and modernize NRC processes to accommodate next-generation nuclear technologies, challenges with current regulatory frameworks originally designed for traditional large light-water reactors, the role of licensing structures and the value of more flexible licensing pathways, and the motivation behind their recent paper, which aims to provide actionable, bipartisan policy suggestions to enable nuclear deployment at scale. We examine the historical development and regulatory evolution of power versus non-power reactor definitions, how those distinctions have blurred over time, the shift toward performance-based regulation, and the commercial implications of licensing small reactors under Class 103. We discuss the importance of consistent terminology and regulatory clarity in advancing new nuclear technologies, whether the NRC's internal culture can evolve to support faster deployment without compromising safety, the NRC's broader oversight role beyond reactors including medical and industrial applications of radioactive materials, and congressional support for NRC modernization. Patrick and Niko provide insights into international regulatory approaches, such as performance-based models used in the UK, France, and Canada, the critical need to earn public trust through rigorous and efficient safety regulation, the feasibility of President Trump's goal of having 10 new reactors under construction by 2030, challenges beyond regulation, and much more. We greatly enjoyed the conversation. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that the S&P 500 closed modestly lower on the day, while crude oil prices caught a bid amid escalating tensions in the Mideast. On the bond front, the 10-year bond yield (~4.4%) has pulled back over the last few days as markets await the outcome of the June 18th FOMC rate decision meeting. Consensus is for no change in interest rates at this FOMC meeting, but a cut is expected at the September meeting. From a crude oil market standpoint, WTI price has spiked by >$10/bbl to ~$74/bbl over the last five trading days due to the Iranian-Israeli military conflict. While Veriten isn't in the business of making short-term crude oil price calls based on supply disruption threats, we continue to emphasize that global oil demand growth projections are a more vital determinant for intermediate-term oil prices. On the global S/D front, the IEA recently modeled global oil demand peaking in 2029 (China in 2027), contra

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.This week we provide "long takes" on the outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran. Long takes are our attempt to provide perspective on the long-term implications--as opposed to "hot takes"--of current events. We recorded this mid-day U.S. time on Friday, June 13.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.This week we wanted to address two questions that have come up from our recent posts and videos. The first on why are we not more pound-the-table bullish on crude oil after noting how inexpensive it is versus a bunch of other commodities. The second question is what kind of capital return could work is on what kind of “yield vehicle” could be possible for shale pure-plays that do not want to sell to a larger company and where diversification wouldn't make sense.

Kevin Gordon, Charles Schwab Senior Investment Strategist kicks off the show, tracking the S&P 500 ‘s first down day in the last 10 session. Morgan breaks down Palantir's quarterly numbers, plus a bull-and-bear debate on the stock with Dan Ives, Wedbush Global Head of Technology Research, and Brent Thill, Jefferies Analyst. Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler Chief Investment Strategist, joins on the macro and Fed outlook, while Arjun Murti, Partner at Veriten, weighs in on the energy sector and falling oil prices. Plus, Hollywood gets caught in the crosshairs of U.S.–China trade tensions—our Julia Boorstin reports on the growing tariff risks for the entertainment industry.

Today we had the distinct pleasure of hosting Mark Lashier, Chairman and CEO of Phillips 66. Mark joined Phillips 66 as President and COO in 2021 and assumed the CEO role in July 2022. Prior to that, he served as the President and CEO of Chevron Phillips Chemical Company (CPChem), where he held several senior leadership roles, including Executive Vice President of Olefins and Polyolefins, Senior Vice President of Specialties, Aromatics and Styrenics, and Vice President of Corporate Planning and Development. Mark began his career at Phillips Petroleum and holds a doctorate in Chemical Engineering. Beyond his leadership at Phillips 66, he serves on the Executive Committee of the American Petroleum Institute and is a Board Member of the Greater Houston Partnership and several other nonprofit organizations. Mike, Arjun and I were thrilled to host Mark for this Special Edition to discuss Phillips 66's recent performance, his strategic vision for the company, insights into today's energy landscape, and the ongoing debate with Elliott Management. In our discussion, Mark shares background on his career and transition to CEO, his early priority of addressing improvements in Phillip 66's refining segment, and the cultural transformation to re-instill pride and competitiveness amongst refiners, which involved engaging employees at all levels and investing in strategic capital projects to fix operational bottlenecks and improve reliability and earnings. We discuss Bob Pease's addition to the board, who was originally nominated through Elliott's engagement, and how he shifted from being skeptical to supportive of the company's strategy, execution, and focus on shareholder returns. We explore the history and structure of CPChem, the benefits of Phillips 66's integrated business model during times of volatility and potential downturns, and the company's industry-leading safety performance, which ties safety directly to employee compensation. Mark shares his perspective on why maintaining a diversified portfolio across refining, midstream, and chemicals is strategically and financially advantageous, as well as the optimization and regulatory advantages of an integrated structure. We touch on Phillips 66's strong ROCE versus peers, activist pressure to sell midstream assets for a higher multiple, growth across their midstream business, and broader global trends toward integration rather than asset breakups. Mark highlights the company's refining performance improvement, the rationale behind merging PSXP and DCP assets, efforts to attract generalist investors back to the energy sector by demonstrating consistent earnings, Phillips 66's philosophy of keeping assets “for sale every day” to ensure focus on shareholder value, and much more. We greatly appreciate Mark for sharing his candid insights into a complex and highly public debate. As you will hear, we reference a few items in the discussion. Phillip 66's Investor Relations presentation entitled “Delivering Value & Demonstrating Commitment,” released Monday, April 28, is linked here. Veriten's COBT episode featuring Doug Terreson is linked here. Thanks to Mark for joining us for an insightful discussion and thanks to you all for your friendship and support!

What does global energy transition look like in a time of major geopolitical change, including rebalancing of trade? In this special episode of "Energized: The Future of Energy”, host JJ Ramberg and Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel talk to Arjun Murti, partner at Veriten and founder of the energy transition newsletter Super-Spiked. They discuss the impact of President Trump's new energy policies, the role of North America in the global energy transition, and the possible impact of tariffs and trade tension on the energy sector.Host: JJ Ramberg and Greg Ebel Guest: Arjun Murti Subscribe to the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.