Podcasts about veriten

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.Last week we did a check-in on how the answers to the tactical questions for 2025 we posed back in January were faring (here). This week we go through our Big Themes for 2025 which we had also highlighted back in January (here). We look at what's in and what's out through the lens of macro frameworks, public policy implications, and finally corporate strategy and energy sub-sector outlooks. We will publish our final summer Super-Spiked next week before taking a 2-week hiatus until after Labor Day. BIG THEMES FOR 2025* Energy scenario normalization * Power surge: This generation's super-cycle * Energy sources and technologies MACRO FRAMEWORK IMPLICATIONS * Net Zero and “The Energy Transition” are out. Energy policies that will drive GDP growth and meeting energy's natural hierarchy of needs are in. * Solving for everyone on Earth someday becoming energy rich is in. Assuming people will choose to stay poor is out. * OPEC Research is in. Energy macro agencies and oil companies that were driven by “net zero” narratives are out (for now). What to watch: * BP Energy Outlook (Sep), IEA WEO (Oct) * Africa's significant TAM (total address market): Up to 60 million b/d of desired oil demand versus 5 million b/d todayPOLICY IMPLICATIONS * Energy policy that drives long-term affordability, reliability, and security are in. Policies that start with counting CO2 are out. * IRA is out. Meeting AI demand is in. * Some of the above is in. All of the above was never in. * Regions that are long energy resource should all be in, but some are still out (California) or not sufficiently in (Canada). What to watch: * US natural gas midstream infrastructure * Canada oil and natural gas export infrastructure * Reliability, affordability reforms in California, Western Europe CORPORATE IMPLACATIONS * Companies exposed to power value chain are in. Natural gas is in. Oil value chain is still out. * Solar + batteries are still in. Wind is out. * Nuclear is in. “Green” hydrogen is out. Geothermal hoping to be in. * IPPs are in. SMID oils (E&P, OFS) are out, though SMID OFS diversifying into power are in. * Companies driving new technology development in regions that are short energy resource are in… * …Companies that exist to exploit rich-world government subsidies in the name of CO2 accounting are out.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.This week we check-in on how our “Top 10 Tactical Questions for 2025” published on January 25, 2025 (here) are faring. MACRO ORIENTED (1) Will energy's S&P weighting increase in 2025? Original answer: Yes. Mid-year progress: Wrong so far, but narrative discussed is on-track. (2) Will we see energy outlooks from high-profile organizations stop treating “net zero” as if it were the defining issue? Original answer: Change is coming, but will take time and we'll get wishy washy language in 2025. Mid-year progress: This is on-track to happen more quickly than we anticipated. (3) Can oil become great again in 2025? Original answer: No, Super Vol not super-cycle remains our view. Mid-year progress: Correct so far. GEOPOLITICS & POLICY (4) Will the IRA be repealed, reformed, or left alone? Original answer: Reformed. Mid-year progress: Probably we are technically correct in that the IRA was not repealed, but it was so meaningfully gutted that it very much feels like it was repealed. (5) Will Trump make the Arctic great going forward? Original answer: Yes. Mid-year progress: Trump Administration is giving the Alaska/Arctic appropriate attention. SUB-SECTOR OUTLOOKS (6) Will power-exposed sectors lead the way in 2025? Original answer: Yes. Mid-year progress: Correct so far. (7) What new technology area are you watching more closely to break-out in 2025? Original answer: Autonomous driving. Mid-year progress: The “robo taxi” market is nascent but starting to expand to more areas. M&A (8) Will we see an acceleration of O&G firms enter power markets and, if so, how? Original answer: Yes and organic.Mid-year progress: To be determined. (9) Does the Venture Global IPO signal the tide is turning on energy sector capital formation? Original answer: Yes. Mid-year progress: Wrong so far. (10) Will we see a surprising mega merger in energy? Original answer: Yes. Mid-year progress: Hasn't happened yet.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.Last week we published a written post that took a fresh look at a long standing theme of ours “obliterating peak oil demand” (here). We dug into OPEC Research's most recent World Oil Outlook report (here) to compare OPEC's more optimistic view of long-term oil demand to more bearish forecasts from the IEA and frankly many other leading energy voices. Our own outlook is closely aligned with OPEC's in recognizing the massive unmet energy needs of the other 7 billion people on Earth. The idea that anyone can know today that oil demand is going to permanently peak within the next decade is something we push back hard on. That post has sparked a number of questions, five of which we will aim to address today.Our On A Personal Note this week remembers heavy metal pioneer Ozzy Osbourne, who passed away on July 21. I was fortunate to catch a Black Sabbath reunion tour in 2016.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We hope everyone enjoyed a great 4th of July holiday. This week we will start to flush out a new theme of ours, what we are calling “some of the above, depending on country and region" as the better macro and policy framing for energy. It will undoubtedly get shortened to simply "some of the above" and is meant to reflect that the energy sources and technologies that might make sense for one country or region might not make sense for another. Super-Spiked was created as a protest to that narrow definition of "The Energy Transition" that said all areas must quickly switch only into renewables + EVs and out of fossil fuels within an absurdly short time frame. That movement never made sense and we think is being relegated to the dustbin of history. But its replacement with terms like "all of the above" and "energy pragmatism" are imperfect and imprecise in a different direction. Pragmatism can mean many different things to many different people and both phrases imply an "anything goes" mindset that frankly isn't how countries or companies are going to act. Instead, practically speaking, the choices that will be made are "some of the above, depending on country or region."

The global energy landscape is shifting right now. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, debates about peak oil demand, and waning support for climate action in some parts of the world are challenging long-held assumptions about the pace and scale of the energy transition. Confronting these complex challenges requires an understanding of the forces that drive energy markets and prices.  So where is global energy consumption headed? Are reports of oil's demise exaggerated? And as countries prioritize energy security and economic growth, what does "pragmatism" really mean for the energy transition? This week, Jason Bordoff speaks with Arjun Murti about the state of global energy markets and of the energy transition. Arjun is a partner with Veriten, an energy research and investment firm. He also publishes the Super-Spiked newsletter. Previously, Arjun served as co-director of Americas equity research for Goldman Sachs. Prior to that, he was a buy-side equity research analyst at J.P. Morgan Investment Management. He also serves on the Center on Global Energy Policy advisory board. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is executive producer.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.Ahead of what will be a holiday week off to celebrate America's Birthday, we have five thoughts we wanted to share this week around key themes, research ideas, and some what ifs that we are thinking about:(1) What will it take to get the traditional energy sector, in particular those exposed to the crude oil value chain going again? (2) Private versus public company mindset and opportunities,(3) Domestic coal.(4) "Some of the above" as the correct macro framework for specific regions.(5) A changing Middle East.

As tensions rise in the Middle East, former Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass assess the responses and global ramifications. Payne's Courtney Garcia and Mike Santoli weigh the market's reaction, while Arjun Murti of Veriten breaks down curious reaction in the energy markets. Tim Seymour analyzes moves in the dollar, gold, and global positioning. Plus, our Phil LeBeau reports on Tesla's strong stock move today after the weekend's rollout of its Robotaxi in Austin, TX.

Today we're excited to welcome Patrick White, Group Lead for Fusion Energy Safety and Regulation at the Clean Air Task Force (CATF), and Nicholas McMurray, Managing Director of International and Nuclear Policy at ClearPath. Patrick recently joined CATF and leads the organization's international working group focused on fusion energy safety, waste, and non-proliferation. He holds a Ph.D. in Nuclear Science and Engineering from MIT and previously served as Research Director at the Nuclear Innovation Alliance. Niko is an expert in industrial policy, nuclear energy policy, and regulation. He has been with ClearPath since 2019 and formerly served as a Materials Engineer at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). A few weeks ago, Veriten partnered with CATF and ClearPath to publish a paper calling out reforms to NRC processes and procedures to accelerate the deployment of new nuclear reactors; establishing a more efficient regulatory framework for new and advanced reactors (paper linked here). We were thrilled to host Patrick and Niko for a discussion on the paper and broader trends in the nuclear landscape. Brett Rampal, Senior Director of Nuclear and Power Strategy at Veriten, joined for the conversation and led Veriten's contribution to the paper. In our discussion, Patrick and Niko share background on their organizations' missions and long-standing support for nuclear. We explore the need to demystify and modernize NRC processes to accommodate next-generation nuclear technologies, challenges with current regulatory frameworks originally designed for traditional large light-water reactors, the role of licensing structures and the value of more flexible licensing pathways, and the motivation behind their recent paper, which aims to provide actionable, bipartisan policy suggestions to enable nuclear deployment at scale. We examine the historical development and regulatory evolution of power versus non-power reactor definitions, how those distinctions have blurred over time, the shift toward performance-based regulation, and the commercial implications of licensing small reactors under Class 103. We discuss the importance of consistent terminology and regulatory clarity in advancing new nuclear technologies, whether the NRC's internal culture can evolve to support faster deployment without compromising safety, the NRC's broader oversight role beyond reactors including medical and industrial applications of radioactive materials, and congressional support for NRC modernization. Patrick and Niko provide insights into international regulatory approaches, such as performance-based models used in the UK, France, and Canada, the critical need to earn public trust through rigorous and efficient safety regulation, the feasibility of President Trump's goal of having 10 new reactors under construction by 2030, challenges beyond regulation, and much more. We greatly enjoyed the conversation. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that the S&P 500 closed modestly lower on the day, while crude oil prices caught a bid amid escalating tensions in the Mideast. On the bond front, the 10-year bond yield (~4.4%) has pulled back over the last few days as markets await the outcome of the June 18th FOMC rate decision meeting. Consensus is for no change in interest rates at this FOMC meeting, but a cut is expected at the September meeting. From a crude oil market standpoint, WTI price has spiked by >$10/bbl to ~$74/bbl over the last five trading days due to the Iranian-Israeli military conflict. While Veriten isn't in the business of making short-term crude oil price calls based on supply disruption threats, we continue to emphasize that global oil demand growth projections are a more vital determinant for intermediate-term oil prices. On the global S/D front, the IEA recently modeled global oil demand peaking in 2029 (China in 2027), contra

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.This week we provide "long takes" on the outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran. Long takes are our attempt to provide perspective on the long-term implications--as opposed to "hot takes"--of current events. We recorded this mid-day U.S. time on Friday, June 13.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.This week we wanted to address two questions that have come up from our recent posts and videos. The first on why are we not more pound-the-table bullish on crude oil after noting how inexpensive it is versus a bunch of other commodities. The second question is what kind of capital return could work is on what kind of “yield vehicle” could be possible for shale pure-plays that do not want to sell to a larger company and where diversification wouldn't make sense.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.This week we will have some fun with Bloomberg charts as it relates to the crude oil macro. We noted in our The Good, The Bad, and The Misunderstood Amidst Major Macro Cross Currents written post from two weeks ago (here) that crude oil remains a critically important energy source albeit with conflicting cross currents that are both bullish (US shale maturity tailwinds) and bearish (China slowdown headwinds, OPEC+ supply increases). Whatever one's view of oil, it is still a huge driver of sentiment toward the energy sector and of course Energy's weighting in the S&P 500 is driven by the largest oil and gas companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, etc. One thing is clear from all the charts, oil looks inexpensive to gold, copper, and refining margins and is at the low end of its recent band to Henry Hub natural gas and TTF. Oil is the big laggard and it is casting a pall on Energy's S&P 500 weighting, which has sunk back to a dismal 3% of the S&P 500 versus a Russia-Ukraine high of 5% and its pre-2015 range of 8%-12%. The question is whether oil and oil equities are values or value traps. As a spoiler alert, we are not sure we are actually going to be able to definitively answer that today, and the answer in part depends on one's time horizon. The short-term looks to be more challenging, whereas over the long run we do not believe “the end of oil” is anywhere near. To be clear, over the remainder of this decade, we are more optimistic on growth in power generation—US and global—natural gas demand and for that matter other power generation energy sources like solar + batteries and non-OECD coal. Equities favorably exposed to those trends should perform accordingly. But for the Energy sector broadly speaking to regain a much larger S&P weighing, oil is still the king.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We continue our series of “long takes” amidst the macro mess we are slogging through and wanted to hit upon a couple of observations coming out of a surprisingly interesting quarterly earnings season that we think are relevant as corporates and investors think through long-term implications and opportunities. The first comes courtesy of Diamondback Energy: Is US shale oil peaking? And if it is, what does that mean for the energy macro. The second comes from Next Era Energy which made some interesting remarks about the relative economics of various generation sources juxtaposed against massive US power demand growth. The first two points then lead to the obvious question of how should companies think about business evolution, M&A and strategy during a period of uncertainty and turmoil to best position themselves for the decade ahead. For investors, who and what do you want to own?

Kevin Gordon, Charles Schwab Senior Investment Strategist kicks off the show, tracking the S&P 500 ‘s first down day in the last 10 session. Morgan breaks down Palantir's quarterly numbers, plus a bull-and-bear debate on the stock with Dan Ives, Wedbush Global Head of Technology Research, and Brent Thill, Jefferies Analyst. Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler Chief Investment Strategist, joins on the macro and Fed outlook, while Arjun Murti, Partner at Veriten, weighs in on the energy sector and falling oil prices. Plus, Hollywood gets caught in the crosshairs of U.S.–China trade tensions—our Julia Boorstin reports on the growing tariff risks for the entertainment industry.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We wanted to follow up on the Special Edition episode of this week's Close of Business Tuesday video podcast where we interviewed Mark Lashier, the CEO of Phillips 66. P66 is in the midst of a proxy battle with Elliott Advisors. I will refer everyone to that episode (here) as well as the published materials from both the company (here) and Elliott (here) for more information. At Super-Spiked, it is our self-imposed policy to not discuss individual companies and so this is not P66 dedicated episode. What we are looking to do though is discuss a few topics about how we think about corporate strategy including (1) being diversified vs a pure play, (2) when it makes sense to restructure and split apart and when it doesn't, (3) when does external activism make sense, and (4) how to be your own internal activist. We are in a macro environment where a lot is changing in terms of the outlook for China, the increasing maturity of U.S. shale oil, faster expected power generation and the role of different energy sources to meet that growth. Geopolitics remain front and center. We expect oil demand to grow but it's going to be choppy. Natural gas, LNG (liquefied natural gas), and NGLs (natural gas liquids) are expected to grow much faster, but what is the right business model to participate? Will upstream companies need to start looking overseas again? And if so, who and how is the best way to do that? There are a lot of moving parts. As companies consider potentially meaningful strategic actions, there is the risk of a disconnect between what some will think is the best course of action in the near term versus the evaluation of risk/reward opportunities in the long term. As companies take steps, some will be second-guessed and the specter of rising shareholder activism will be there.To be clear, different analysts will have different takes on this topic and what companies should do. There is no one-size-fits-all answer to any of this stuff. It can be frustrating or perhaps annoying that luck and timing can matter a lot, but so does good governance and management. No one bats 1.000. But structural underperformance is neither sustainable nor OK either.

Today we had the distinct pleasure of hosting Mark Lashier, Chairman and CEO of Phillips 66. Mark joined Phillips 66 as President and COO in 2021 and assumed the CEO role in July 2022. Prior to that, he served as the President and CEO of Chevron Phillips Chemical Company (CPChem), where he held several senior leadership roles, including Executive Vice President of Olefins and Polyolefins, Senior Vice President of Specialties, Aromatics and Styrenics, and Vice President of Corporate Planning and Development. Mark began his career at Phillips Petroleum and holds a doctorate in Chemical Engineering. Beyond his leadership at Phillips 66, he serves on the Executive Committee of the American Petroleum Institute and is a Board Member of the Greater Houston Partnership and several other nonprofit organizations. Mike, Arjun and I were thrilled to host Mark for this Special Edition to discuss Phillips 66's recent performance, his strategic vision for the company, insights into today's energy landscape, and the ongoing debate with Elliott Management. In our discussion, Mark shares background on his career and transition to CEO, his early priority of addressing improvements in Phillip 66's refining segment, and the cultural transformation to re-instill pride and competitiveness amongst refiners, which involved engaging employees at all levels and investing in strategic capital projects to fix operational bottlenecks and improve reliability and earnings. We discuss Bob Pease's addition to the board, who was originally nominated through Elliott's engagement, and how he shifted from being skeptical to supportive of the company's strategy, execution, and focus on shareholder returns. We explore the history and structure of CPChem, the benefits of Phillips 66's integrated business model during times of volatility and potential downturns, and the company's industry-leading safety performance, which ties safety directly to employee compensation. Mark shares his perspective on why maintaining a diversified portfolio across refining, midstream, and chemicals is strategically and financially advantageous, as well as the optimization and regulatory advantages of an integrated structure. We touch on Phillips 66's strong ROCE versus peers, activist pressure to sell midstream assets for a higher multiple, growth across their midstream business, and broader global trends toward integration rather than asset breakups. Mark highlights the company's refining performance improvement, the rationale behind merging PSXP and DCP assets, efforts to attract generalist investors back to the energy sector by demonstrating consistent earnings, Phillips 66's philosophy of keeping assets “for sale every day” to ensure focus on shareholder value, and much more. We greatly appreciate Mark for sharing his candid insights into a complex and highly public debate. As you will hear, we reference a few items in the discussion. Phillip 66's Investor Relations presentation entitled “Delivering Value & Demonstrating Commitment,” released Monday, April 28, is linked here. Veriten's COBT episode featuring Doug Terreson is linked here. Thanks to Mark for joining us for an insightful discussion and thanks to you all for your friendship and support!

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We will start with an apology to those of you that prefer the written notes but with the Super Vol nature of this tariff trade war and the dramatic market moves, we are going to do another short video. We tried our best to avoid “hot takes” and stick with how to think about what it means for the Energy sector over the long run—i.e., the “long takes.” For companies and investors that are not trying to day trade this crazy market, there are some fundamental questions about how to think about the macro, CAPEX, M&A, and what to do with so much uncertainty. We would like to wish everyone that celebrates a Happy Easter. We too will be enjoying the long weekend and will publish our next Super-Spiked in two weeks.

What does global energy transition look like in a time of major geopolitical change, including rebalancing of trade? In this special episode of "Energized: The Future of Energy”, host JJ Ramberg and Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel talk to Arjun Murti, partner at Veriten and founder of the energy transition newsletter Super-Spiked. They discuss the impact of President Trump's new energy policies, the role of North America in the global energy transition, and the possible impact of tariffs and trade tension on the energy sector.Host: JJ Ramberg and Greg Ebel Guest: Arjun Murti Subscribe to the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.

What does global energy transition look like in a time of major geopolitical change, including rebalancing of trade? In this special episode of "Energized: The Future of Energy”, host JJ Ramberg and Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel talk to Arjun Murti, partner at Veriten and founder of the energy transition newsletter Super-Spiked. They discuss the impact of President Trump's new energy policies, the role of North America in the global energy transition, and the possible impact of tariffs and trade tension on the energy sector.Host: JJ Ramberg and Greg Ebel Guest: Arjun Murti Subscribe to the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We had intended to publish a written note this week that we thought had some interesting analysis on energy sub-sector profitability over what we consider to be the 2021-2024 mini-cycle. But President Trump's April 2 “Liberation Day” Rose Garden event squashed those publication plans. OPEC decided to add to the noise with its own surprise announcement that it would add additional volumes. As of the April 3 close, energy equities, oil commodities, and the broader stock market have been hit hard and we have pivoted this week to producing a short video podcast to share our thoughts. With the major caveat that we are one day into whatever this potential new paradigm is—and given our aversion to providing “hot takes” on the news of the day—we wanted to offer some initial long-term perspectives on macro developments, i.e., “long takes” so to speak.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week's video is a follow up to last week's written post titled "What Does Energy Pragmatism Mean for Climate & Sustainability" (here). We wanted to expand on some of the points in our own voice and also address various questions and pushback we have received.Our key messages this week: (1) Energy pragmatism means a return to energy's natural hierarchy of needs, rather than the inverted version that pretended anyone anywhere prioritizes carbon emission reductions over energy availability and reliability; (2) investment flows into non-fossil fuel energy sources are not impacted by western world virtue signaling, as the climate bubble actually peaked way back in 2021; (3) the other 7 billion people in developing markets hold the key to how energy markets will evolve in coming decades, not us Lucky 1 Billioners.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.This past week we attended CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston. Pragmatism, balance, and realism have been the themes uttered by just about every single speaker. Some have long been in this camp. Others are new. All are welcomed. We are still embracing inclusivity at Super-Spiked. Some will say we shouldn't be so forgiving to those people that 5 minutes ago were calling for an end to fossil fuel investment and are now suddenly seeing the light in regards to reliability, geopolitical security, and affordability. You, our loyal subscribers, know where we have been standing all along. It is our mission that the dialogue, understanding, and macro energy policies recognize energy's natural hierarchy of needs, where all anyone anywhere at all times cares about is can I use energy right now. Without energy access there is nothing. So in that spirit, we welcome everyone to the world of pragmatism.Before we get into our Top 10 takeaways from CERAWeek 2025, we would like to offer our congratulations to Dan Yergin, Atul Arya, and everyone at S&P Global for putting on a world class show. We learned a ton and caught up with many friends and colleagues from around the world. There is no conference like CERAWeek that brings together all of the global energy industry in one place.

Greetings, and welcome back to the podcast.This episode we are joined by Mr. Arjun Murti - Partner at Veriten LLC and a Senior Advisor at Warburg Pincus. Mr. Murti has spent over 30 years on Wall Street as a sell-side equity research analyst, buy-side investor, advisor and board member covering the global energy sector. Mr. Murti previously served as a Partner at Goldman Sachs from 2006 to 2014. Prior to becoming Partner, he served as Managing Director from 2003 to 2006 and as Vice President from 1999 to 2003. During his time at Goldman Sachs, Mr. Murti worked as a sell-side equity research analyst covering the energy sector. He was co-director of equity research for the Americas from 2011 to 2014. Previously, Mr. Murti held equity analyst positions at JP Morgan Investment Management from 1995 to 1999 and at Petrie Parkman from 1992 to 1995. Mr. Murti serves on the board of directors of ConocoPhillips & Liberty Energy Inc. He also serves on the advisory boards of ClearPath and Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy and as a board observer to Welligence Energy Analytics. Mr. Murti graduated with a business degree specializing in finance from the University of Denver,Since November 2021, Mr. Murti has published Super-Spiked, a Substack newsletter and podcast about the energy transition.Among other things, we discussed The End of the Energy Transition Era & What it Means for Investors.Enjoy.Thank you to our sponsors.Without their support this episode would not be possible:Connate Water SolutionsATB Capital MarketsEnergy United 360 Engineering & Environmental ConsultingEVA SoftwareBroadbill EnergySupport the show

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We follow up on last week's post that heralded The Rise of the Energy Pragmatism Era (here). No more inverting the hierarchy of needs with non-sensical net-zero-is-all-that-matters energy outlooks that would subjugate vast swaths of humanity to ongoing poverty. We have moved into an exciting and even fun new period for all things energy—new, old and everything in between. Oil & gas is converging with power. Technology and energy are converging in the sense that you can't have the former without the latter. Billion-person scale economies in the developing world are doing whatever it takes to bring wealth to their citizens—all of which is synonymous with energy growth. And for those regions it will be a focus on reliability, affordability, and geopolitics that will motivate an increasingly diverse mix of energy sources and technology. This is not about looking backwards...it's about the path forward.This week's video will start our discussion on new opportunities that could arise as energy pragmatism spreads, in particular to regions that had been most in “climate only” mode. What regions have been left behind that deserve a fresh look? How can we best meet the substantial energy needs of ALL 8 billion people on Earth? Real economics are returning, not unsustainable rich-country government handouts to the wealthiest amongst us. Welcome to The Energy Pragmatism Era!

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.The firehose of news flow out of the new Trump administration since, and frankly preceding, his inauguration has not stopped. While US presidents throughout history seem to elicit strong reactions, President Trump inspires a degree of hysteria from those that oppose him and a do-no-wrong deference from his supporters. What we find is that whatever the issue is—it could be domestic spending, sanctions, or tariffs—when someone has an obviously dripping disdain for Trump, it weakens the efficacy of their argument, even if partly accurate. The opposite is also true. We find both extremes to be pretty unhelpful in sorting through what matters. By the time this video podcast is published, President Trump will have only been in office for 4 weeks: there are still 3 years and 48 weeks to go—permanent freak out mode is not sustainable or healthy! In this week's video, which we recorded a little earlier than usual due to some travel this past week, we address a number of questions that have arisen. We are going to do our best to use our equity research analyst's mindset to assess policy actions taken or proposed. This means our only goal is to make the right call and provide the best insight we can for the companies we advise. We will keep our answers focused on how it all might impact the long-term energy macro and corporate strategy.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.As long-time Super-Spiked subscribers know, we are not about “hot takes” on the issue of the day. With that said, it's been an incredible first week and a half since the US inaugurated its 47th president. A fire hose of Trump-driven news has instantly recast global narratives around energy and geopolitics as well as as a host of other topics we don't normally cover in Super-Spiked. The World Economic Forum's Davos gathering happened last week. And DeepSeek, a Chinese AI program in the spirt of ChatGPT and related programs, burst onto the scene after its US iPhone app went viral last weekend, upending stock markets and in particular anything and everything related to the A.I. trade. We are going to try our best to put this torrent of news flow in the context of what it might mean for the longer-term trends and outlook for the energy that is our bread and butter.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.It's been a great start to the year for the traditional energy and power sectors broadly speaking. This video will publish just two days before we have a new administration here in the U.S. And as we highlighted in our last few Super-Spiked's from December as well as the “Big Themes for 2025” outlook post from last week (here), we feel considerable optimism that the narratives and perspectives about energy are becoming more pragmatic and sensible after a pretty rough stretch over 2021-2024 where a very narrow definition of “The Energy Transition” unfortunately dominated energy mindspace. Our confidence that that era decisively came to a close in 2024was on a full display in what was a remarkably civil and mostly thoughtful confirmation hearing for Chris Wright, president-elect Trump's nominee to be energy secretary, conducted by the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. In this video we hope to further expand on our key themes for 2025 through the lens of some of the pushbacks or key questions we have been fielding.

Brett Rampal discusses his journey into nuclear engineering, the evolution of nuclear energy politics over the past two decades, and his current role at Veriten. He highlights the challenges and opportunities in the nuclear energy sector, particularly regarding investment and public perception. The discussion also touches on the changing political landscape surrounding nuclear energy and the importance of addressing public sentiment and regulatory environments to foster growth in the industry. The conversation delves into the evolving landscape of nuclear energy, emphasizing the importance of community ownership, bipartisan support, and regulatory momentum. The discussion highlights the challenges and opportunities in deploying advanced reactor designs and the potential for new nuclear plants in response to growing energy demand. Brett relfects on the historical context of nuclear energy policy and the need for strategic investments to ensure a sustainable energy future.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. We follow up on our written post from last week, Reflections On The End of The Energy Transition Era (here), to talk about important lessons learned from what was an insane period of time. This week will dive into the importance of governance, an area that frankly is often a bit of a black box for investors and those not involved in board-level discussions. We'll include a disclaimer upfront. The comments this week are generic to our 32-year career as an equity research analyst studying and engaging with the energy sector. We are not referring to any specific companies that we are personally involved with or via our role at Veriten.

This holiday weekend on our Inside the Coffeehouse series, we welcome Arjun Murti and Jeff Currie back into the SmarterMarkets™ studio.   Arjun is Partner at Veriten and Publisher of "Super-Spiked" on Substack. Jeff Currie is Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle.   David Greely sits down with Jeff and Arjun, reuniting these two former Goldman partners and colleagues to share their perspectives on the market, economic, and political forces shaping the future of our energy markets.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We hope all of you that tune in or read Super-Spiked know that we try our hardest to be non-partisan and present views from what we refer to as an equity analyst's mindset, which means it does not matter what we personally think about an issue, we are just trying to make the right call. But this week we will confess that we are excited about the new energy team that has been proposed by president-elect former president Donald Trump with North Dakota governor Doug Burgum for Secretary of Interior and Liberty Energy CEO Chris Wright for Secretary of Energy. President Trump has also proposed creating a new National Energy Council that will be headed by Governor Burgum that will look to co-ordinate a whole-of-government approach to energy policies.We will apologize in advance that we are likely to sound far more partisan than we prefer. For those of you listening that either serve or have served in Democrat administrations—or that simply were not happy with how the recent election turned out—please know that we highly value you as a subscriber and we appreciate our ongoing engagement with those of you in that camp that we regularly dialogue with.The appointments of Governor Burgum and Mr. Wright signify a return to an approach to energy that puts abundance, reliability, security, and affordability at its core and an “all of the above” approach to harnessing American energy resources and technology. We would contrast this with the prior administration's emphasis on addressing climate change, which we see as a subsidiary issue within energy and should not be the centering policy point that comes with a climate activist agenda. The “climate only” focus of recent years that took hold in the aftermath of COVID was a motivating factor for the creation of Super-Spiked and our eventual un-retirement and joining Veriten. Chris Wright in particular has been outspoken via his Bettering Human Lives report (here). The report beautifully articulates why we use energy in the first place: to better human lives. Super-Spiked and Bettering Human Lives share a common worldview and motivating spirit. In this week's video podcast we will discuss how re-prioritizing energy abundance, reliability, security, and affordability differs from the “climate only” agenda of the past several years from the perspective of energy equities. Our written post from last week, which we would encourage you to read, addressed various macro and policy issues around energy scenario analysis, power, new energies, and oil markets (here).

This week we provide some initial thoughts on the U.S. election, the bulk of which was decisively declared on election night itself. We regularly emphasize that we aim to bring an equity research analyst's mindset to evaluating the energy sector. That means we are simply trying to make the correct call on what we think will happen—not what we personally wish would happen or hope will happen. And we will do our best to stick with that in this video podcast, though when it comes to emotionally charged topics like elections, we'd have to admit that some amount of wish casting and personal opinion will creep in.In terms of Super-Spiked subscribers, we are going to guess that many of you, perhaps even a majority, will be pretty excited about the election results. But we also take a lot pride in the fact that we have a substantial contingent of subscribers that were hoping for a different outcome. The world is a better place for all of those viewpoints. And we thank all of you, those that agree with us and those that disagree, for your ongoing constructive engagement. As we repeatedly say, we are looking for the pushback to our views. It makes us better analysts.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. We recorded this video podcast with a little less than a week to go before the November 5 US elections. We are seeing a lot of punditry commentary about what choosing one side or the other would mean for this policy or that sector and who will be the winners and losers depending on the outcome. We get it. There are differences between the parties, their areas of emphasis, and their rhetoric. But when it comes to the big picture outlook for the energy sector, we want to remind everyone that the structural macro trends unquestionably transcend micro politics. This is something we wrote about in our July 27, 2024 Super-Spiked, Does the US president's party impact the energy macro results? (here). At a high level, the answer is a firm “no.”Clearly individual companies and specific projects can be impacted as we have seen via the lack of approval for various pipeline projects or the LNG permit pause or the granting of tax credits to various new technologies. So yes, a specific company can be impacted by who wins. But at the big picture level, we believe the mega trends triumph over micro politics. Moreover, as we will show with the last 2 elections, various sectors did not perform as conventional wisdom expected.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.Amidst the geopolitical and macro turmoil, we take a step back this week to turn back to how companies can think about outperformance through all the volatility. One can't be frozen and simply wait for a calmer or better time to materialize. No one should be sitting around waiting for an easy bull market to emerge. Long-time Super-Spiked subscribers will know that we are long-running advocates for companies focusing on profitability and a fortress balance sheet. This week we will start the process of spending some time on the "G" word: growth. Growth became a 4-letter word for investors after the surge in CAPEX during the Super-Spike era and subsequent US shale boom led to profitless growth--something we have spent a lot of time discussing in prior posts.And let us be clear, profits and balance sheet health remain the priority. That said, there is no doubt investors will always side with companies that can grow versus those that cannot grow at a given level of profitability and balance sheet strength. The trick is to hit the trifecta: growth, returns, and balance sheet strength. Moreover, for especially the upstream portion of the industry where asset life is finite--oil and gas fields naturally deplete--it is critical to adequately reinvest back in the business if a company is to persist as a going concern.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we continue the theme of normalization. The 2020-2023 period of “urgent energy transition,” “peak oil and gas demand,” and ESG hysteria we think is fading. It is being replaced with what we would call “normal” supply/demand/price volatility concerns. The biggest issue right now facing oil markets has been uncertainty on the outlook for China in particular. Going back to the super-cycle days of 20 years ago, we have long looked at copper markets to provide insights into China, given China is over 50% of copper demand. A noticeable gap has opened between weak crude oil prices and more resilient copper. Historically, the gap has closed with crude following the direction of copper. We shall see if history repeats.

Tisha Schuller welcomes Naomi Boness, managing director of both the Standford University Natural Gas and Hydrogen Initiatives to the Energy Thinks podcast. Prior to her role at Stanford, Naomi held technical and management positions at Chevron for over a decade where she most recently worked in upstream strategy and portfolio analysis, with particular emphasis on North America shale gas and global LNG projects. Naomi received a Bachelor of Science from the University of Leeds, a Master of Science from Indiana University Bloomington, and a PhD in Geophysics from Stanford University. She currently serves on many boards such as The Energy Leadership Institute, OpenMinds, Inc., Babcock & Wilcox, Ambient Fuels, LLC., geCKo Matericals, Aemetis, and Coalition for Renewable Natural Gas. Naomi is an advisor for Ammobia, Partnership to Address Global Emissions, Veriten, and EvolOH. In her free time, Naomi volunteers as an educator at interview workshops at Wardrobe for Opportunity in the San Francisco Bay Area. Watch the video on YouTube to see Naomi's special furry-friend and co-worker, Ginny! Subscribe here for Tisha's weekly Both of These Things Are True email newsletter. Follow all things Adamantine Energy at www.energythinks.com. Thanks to Kayla Chieves who makes the Energy Thinks podcast possible. [Interview recorded on September 16, 2024]

In this insightful episode of Wicked Energy with JG, Justin Gauthier sits down with Arjun Murti to delve into the intricacies of global oil demand and the evolving energy landscape. Arjun criticizes extreme political positions on oil and gas, advocating for a balanced approach to energy production and innovation. He sheds light on the governments stance on fracking and the broader implications of U.S. energy policies. The discussion pivots to China's "all of the above" energy strategy, highlighting their investment in coal, nuclear, natural gas, and renewables to ensure energy security. Arjun provides an analysis of China's significant influence on global oil markets and the challenges and opportunities posed by their demographic shifts. Other key topics include the economic viability of biofuels, short-term and long-term oil price forecasts, and the impact of interest rate cuts on the energy sector. The episode wraps up with insights into Veriten's strategic advisory work across the oil and gas value chain. LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/arjun-murti-energy-analyst/ Websites: https://arjunmurti.substack.com/ Show Sponsors InflowControl InflowControl is a tech firm specializing in enhancing oil production efficiency and minimizing environmental harm through their Autonomous Inflow Control Valve (AICV®). The technology boosts profitability in mature oil fields by filtering out undesired gas and water, allowing previously overlooked zones to contribute to production. This results in both higher profitability and Lower Carbon Oil for stakeholders. For more information, visit the links below: Website: www.inflowcontrol.no LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/inflowcontrol-as/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqdgIooQhYtUBo-auUlYw-Q Mainline Ventures Mainline Ventures stands alone as the premier strategy consulting firm dedicated to the energy sector, founded by former E&P C-Suite executives. They transform deal-making from an art into a science with their Process Driven Negotiation Technique, focusing on active deals and offering services like bespoke training, deal advising, and go-to-market strategies, often on a contingency basis due to their strategy's proven effectiveness. This approach not only yields measurable, scalable results but also seamlessly integrates with your existing operations, ensuring long-term sustainability without the need for changes in your team or technology. LinkedIn Link: https://www.linkedin.com/company/mainlineventures/ Website: https://mainline-ventures.com/

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.We are using the occasion of our 50th Super-Spiked video podcast to provide thoughts, lessons learned, and new perspectives gained from the first 49 videopods, 90 written posts, and what is now nearly 3 years of publishing Super-Spiked content. As always, we are especially appreciative of both the positive and constructive feedback from all subscribers; we really do love hearing from you. Our glass half-full world view sees energy narratives and conversations slowly but surely becoming more reasonable and less focused on extremist singular goals. There is a growing recognition that until you solve for how everyone on Earth will some day become energy rich, you will never solve sub-goals in areas like the environment or climate. We continue to believe geopolitical imperatives will be the driver of new energy technologies and sources for large population centers that are not blessed with abundant crude oil resources.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we provide the third installment of our August series on “30 Years of Perpetual Transition” with a look at a number of noteworthy geopolitical and policy developments that have occurred. A key conclusion is that some events that were expected to be impactful were not, while others that had less fanfare did have a bigger impact. Some countries had grand openings that resulted in dramatically higher oil or gas supply. Others, not so much. Two weeks ago we discussed some of the different macro drivers that have changed over the course of our career (here). Last week we focused on sectors, business models, and strategy shifts (here). All of it is to point out that energy markets are forever changing. Energy transition has become an unfortunate and loaded term that most people would define as meaning a transition out of fossil fuels and into renewables over an arbitrarily short time frame like 2050. We do not agree that definition of energy transition is happening or would be desirable from the perspective of human prosperity. But there is a need for industry executives, investors, and policy makers to recognize that energy is in perpetual transition and that one needs to always be looking forward with a focus on the important drivers of change and to not let mis-guided and ill-informed rhetoric cloud judgements.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we continue our series of "30 Years of Perpetual Transition" with a focus on how various energy sectors and business models have evolved. As a reminder, we recognize the term "energy transition" has become a loaded term, which most people now take to mean the idea that the world will be transitioning away from fossil fuels to renewables, over some arbitrarily short time frame like by 2050. We do not agree that this version of “energy transition” is on-track to happen or that it would be desirable from a human prosperity standpoint.But that does not mean nothing is changing. In fact, over the course of our 30-year career a ton of stuff has changed. Last week we focused on the energy macro with a closer look on big changes to the relative importance of various regions to oil demand (here). This week we will take a look at the major energy sub-sectors and give examples of how business models and risk taking have evolved.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. For the last month of summer, we are aiming to produce a series of hopefully short videos that highlight key lessons from the last 30 years of what we are calling perpetual transition in the energy space with an aim to offer insights on the go forward view. Energy transition itself has become a loaded term of late, typically referring to the idea that the world will be transitioning away from fossil fuels to renewables, over some arbitrarily short time frame like by 2050. We do not agree that this version of “energy transition” is on-track to happen or would be desirable from a human prosperity standpoint.But that does not mean nothing is changing. In fact, over the course of our 30-year career a ton of stuff has changed. And we have little doubt that the next 30 years will NOT look like the last 30 years. The macro has changed, sectors and company strategy have changed, business models evolve, new technologies and sources or location of energy supply emerge, demand changes, which stocks and sectors perform best changes. Everything is constantly transitioning. So to reiterate, we do not subscribe to what most people today mean by “energy transition,” as we expect all forms of energy to grow in coming decades. But under the hood, energy markets are constantly transitioning, and we do wish to better understand the direction the world is headed.Today's video is the first of our new series and will focus on “30 Years of Perpetual Transition” in the energy macro. Next week we plan to turn to the various energy sectors and company strategy. In other videos, we will look at geopolitics, policy, and the environment.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.Our Super-Spiked post last week (here) asked the question of “Does the US President's party matter to energy macro results?” Our over-arching conclusion is that the bark of presidential or party rhetoric is far worse than the bite. Energy is by nature a long-term business and mega trends around sources of supply, global economic growth, geopolitics, and capital spending cycles drive share price performance, crude oil and natural gas production, as well as CO2 emissions trends than does whichever party happens to be in power for a particular 4- or even 8-year period. The fact that these long-term trends dominate over-arching results—and we observed that there is a notable exception for particular projects that might impact specific companies, something like an approved or rejected oil or gas pipeline or perhaps a new energies subsidy—the long-term trends mean there is likely far more common ground among the major parties than there is disagreement. Yet all we hear about are the extremist edges of the debate. So in the spirt of peace, love, and unity, this week's video will focus on where there is or should be common ground among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents here in the United States.

We continue our Summer Playlist 2024 this week with Arjun Murti, Partner at Veriten and Publisher of “Super-Spiked” on Substack. David Greely sits down with Arjun to discuss America's energy independence – and what it will take to maintain America's energy exceptionalism to help meet rising global demand into a future of lower carbon and more sustainable energy.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we focus on the question “Can you trust the United Nations on energy and climate?” The question is sparked by a “climate change” warning label that YouTube placed on Super-Spiked Episode 37 “Goodbye Europe, Hello Rest of World” (here) that discussed an updated climate change statement from Barclays, German de-industrialization, and our thoughts on the role of US and Canadian traditional energy. The warning label linked to a United Nations website that highlighted what it described as “Facts” and “Myth Busters” on climate energy (here). In reviewing the 16 “facts,” we find that 2 we would agree are definitively facts, another 2-3 are factually true but start the U.N. down the road of advocacy and weaponizing the topic of climate, and the other 10-11 are a mix of opinion, advocacy, and in some cases outright falsehoods. Our concern with what the U.N. presents as “facts” is that it is the organization that oversees the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is widely (universally?) considered the authority on so-called climate science.We have spent considerable time in prior posts and videos discussing our concerns with institutional advocacy under the pretense of sober analysis from groups like the International Energy Agency (IEA), Glasgow Financial Alliance For Net Zero (GFANZ), and within bank and asset manager ESG/Sustainability groups. Frankly, we have been late to taking a closer look at the U.N. itself, most likely because we have not relied on its data directly and it has otherwise not been within the purview of our “Wall Street” approach to discussing energy and climate. The U.N. and IPCC clearly deserve greater scrutiny given their massive influence on how the world understands climate.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we honor America's upcoming 248th birthday on July 4th, when it declared independence from the King of England, and take a moment to celebrate the country's incredible achievements in the energy sector. As my friend and colleauge Paul Dabbar eloquently wrote in a terrific Hoover Institute piece that we would encourage all Super-Spiked subscribers to read (here), America is an energy superpower, a position we should lean into in coming years. Energy supply makes us as Americans and the Rest of the World richer. It betters human lives, to quote another friend Chris Wright, CEO of Liberty Energy. We have called this video American Energy Exceptionalism and it is a celebration of how fortunate we are with our endowment of substantial oil and natural gas resources, our world leading technology sector and culture of innovation and risk taking, and our leading capital markets and system of capitalism that underpins our national economic wealth.

Today we had the honor of hosting Reginald DesRoches, President of Rice University, in Veriten's offices at the Ion. Reggie assumed the role of President in July 2022, after previously serving as Rice's Provost and the Dean of the Engineering School. Additionally, Reggie serves as a professor of civil and environmental engineering, and as a professor of mechanical engineering. Before his tenure at Rice, Reggie was Chair of the School of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Georgia Tech in Atlanta. Rice University is an essential part of Houston's community and is home to 8,600 plus students and more than 900 faculty members. As we discuss, Rice Management Company is responsible for developing the Ion District in partnership with the City of Houston, where Veriten first started in January 2022. We were thrilled to visit with Reggie and hear his perspectives on the world, energy, the Ion, and the current educational landscape. In our conversation, we explore how AI will change the educational landscape and future career prospects for the next class of students starting at Rice, changes in demand for top areas of study, the vital role energy plays in economic development and healthcare, student attitudes towards energy, and the importance of exposing students to real-world energy access challenges in developing countries or rural areas. Reggie shares Rice's efforts to increase study abroad participation to 50% to broaden student perspectives, the current generation's eagerness to address global issues and make a difference, Rice's University-Industry partnerships including Woodside and the Texas Medical Center, the role of industry in providing practical constraints and scalability considerations to university research, and the surge in industry interest Rice received following the Woodside partnership announcement (linked here). We discuss Rice's goals for the Ion District and the potential for Houston to grow into a leading technology and innovation center, Houston's unique advantages, Rice's strategic plan for the next ten years, the balance between STEM and non-STEM disciplines at Rice, navigating research funding, planning for new facilities, the competitive landscape for hiring new faculty, and the importance of having global representation on campus. We ask Reggie for his perspective on the evolving role of university presidents, and as you'll hear, the job is anything but easy. The Economist article Reggie references is linked here. We covered a great deal of territory and can't thank Reggie enough for joining us today. Mike Bradley kicked off the show by highlighting that the 10-year bond yield is hovering at ~4.25%. He noted this week's economic calendar isn't overly robust. WTI price has rallied ~$4/bbl over the last 4-5 days, trading back above $81/bbl and surpassing its 50/100/200-day moving averages. Whether you're looking at 3mo, 6mo, 12mo or 24mo timeframe, WTI price has been relatively rangebound over those respective timeframes averaging ~$80/bbl and with crude oil volatility trading at multi-year lows. Broader equities continue to be driven by the recent drop in bond yields and a continuation of the strong AI/Tech rally. Broader equity market breadth continues to be extremely narrow, with the top six AI/Tech stocks (APPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOG, AMZN & META) seeing their combined market-cap increase by $5T over the last year, pushing their combined market-cap to ~33% of the S&P 500. Jeff Tillery expanded on Mike's thoughts on volatility, adding that the focus on commodity volatility will likely expand. We hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did! Thank you again to Reggie for stopping by. Go Owls!

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. We turn back to our favorite topic and that is profitability and the goal of generating superior long-term share price performance. We spend a lot of time discussing ROCE, CROCI, and free cash flow. This week we wanted to talk about long-term stock buyback as one way to add per share growth to the equation and to highlight how buybacks plus M&A have contributed to significant outperformance from Murphy USA, the 2013 retail spin off from E&P parent Murphy Oil, which is in the very mature business of gas station and convenience store retailing. We also note the outperformance by the Big-3 US downstream companies versus the Majors, E&Ps, and the S&P 500.

Today we had the honor of hosting Mike Wirth, Chairman and CEO of Chevron. Mike's journey at Chevron began as a design engineer in 1982 and since then, he has held senior leadership roles in several divisions of the company. Most recently, Mike served as the Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors and as Executive Vice President of Midstream and Development before assuming his role as CEO in 2018. Beyond his role at Chevron, Mike is engaged in industry advocacy and global initiatives, serving on the board of directors of Catalyst, as an Executive Committee Member of the American Petroleum Institute, and as an Executive Committee Member of the World Economic Forum International Business Council, among other notable roles. With CERAWeek in full swing in Houston, we were fortunate to sit down with Mike to explore the current energy landscape, global energy dynamics, the future of energy, and of course, activity at CERAWeek. In our conversation with Mike, we discuss the changing tone and focus of energy conversations and the pragmatic and realistic tone at CERAWeek, Mike's background in engineering and its influence on his leadership style and decision-making processes, the importance of understanding customer needs and preferences in the energy sector, and the evaluation of investments that rely on subsidies. Mike shares his perspective on the integration of cultures during mergers and acquisitions, the importance of fostering collaboration and alignment while preserving the strengths of acquired companies, the future of exploration in meeting global energy needs, the evolution of shale innovation, current geopolitical risks, trends in government intervention, inflationary pressures, energy access in developing countries, and his perspective on recent developments surrounding Chevron's acquisition of Hess Corporation. We discuss corporate net zero pledges and the often underestimated complexities involved, the overall desirability of more engineers and more problem-solving thinking, the evolving power landscape, Chevron's capabilities in lower carbon energy and technologies, America as an energy superpower and how to maintain that status, and much more. We had a great visit with Mike and can't thank him enough for his time and thoughtfulness. He is an exceptional spokesman for sound energy thinking. To start the show, Mike Bradley shared his thoughts on three key events this week. Regarding CERAWeek 2024 where Veriten is an industry partner (details here), he noted themes are focused on AI, electricity, energy transition, hydrogen and permitting, with AI and electricity being mentioned in just about every conversation. US power needs are being underestimated and the energy transition discussion seems to be turning much more pragmatic. NVIDIA introduced its newest processor (Blackwell) at their conference on Monday. Expectations for NVIDIA and tech stocks were extremely elevated heading into the conference. The third key event is Wednesday's FOMC Meeting. Mike noted that it's virtually guaranteed the FED will keep rates unchanged given recent inflation stats printed on the hot side. Markets will be focused on Chairman Powell's comments which could provide a clue on the number of future rate cuts. On the commodity front, last week was the first weekly close for WTI above $80/bbl since November 2023. WTI trades at ~$83/bbl as US crude oil inventories declined last week and will be drawing in the weeks ahead. He also noted that Gunvor indicated this week that Ukrainian drone strikes have damaged ~600kbpd of Russian refineries, which has strengthened crude oil and product markets. WTI time spreads continue moving steeper into backwardation, and if WTI holds above its $80/bbl support, it could reverse extreme “bearish” oil trader sentiment. He ended by noting that energy as a percentage of the S&P 500 should increase given that energy transition conversation is turning much more pragmatic, that global e

Tisha Schuller welcomes Arjun Murti, partner at Veriten and author of the “Super Spiked” newsletter, to the Energy Thinks podcast.

Today was a big one – the first regular COBT of the year, and also the second anniversary of Veriten. Accordingly, we thought about something that would be truly special to mark the occasion and reached back for two COBT All-Stars… on the same show! Today's episode features two great friends: Dr. Lars Schernikau, energy economist, entrepreneur, commodity trader, strategic advisor, and the author of “The Unpopular Truth about Electricity and the Future of Energy” AND Rob West, Founder and Lead Analyst at Thunder Said Energy (TSE). Rob started TSE in 2019 and provides unique and thought-provoking analysis on energy transition research and technologies. Lars patched in from Dubai and Rob from Tallinn. What a delight it was to have this much firepower in the same discussion. Our COBT buffs may recall Lars previously appeared on COBT in March of 2023 (linked here). For Rob, today's episode marks his fourth appearance on the show; he most recently joined in July 2023 (linked here), prior to that in November 2022 (linked here), and first in January 2022 (linked here). We simply thought these two gentlemen together would be perfect for global energy 2023 reflection and 2024 speculation and vision. We were not disappointed! To start the discussion, we ask Rob and Lars for their view on the most significant macro factors for the upcoming year. Rob discusses the impact of higher interest rates and puts particular focus on the volatility of today's energy systems. Lars added his concern with our growing energy inefficiency and what that means for costs. Volatility, energy inefficiency, rising costs and government/corporate/investor decision-making wove in and out throughout our conversation today. We touch on weather's contribution to energy production volatility, recent warm weather and how it may be masking underlying problems, overall trends in European energy sentiment, China's self-interested energy policies and their control of raw materials, Rob's recent work on Harmonics, the current state of energy forecasting and the lack of transparency around models, last week's appearance by Senator John Kennedy (episode linked here) and much more. We were sorry the discussion had to end and wrapped up by asking everyone for the number one thing they are focused on for 2024 (in Bari Weiss rapid-fire style). We can't thank Lars and Rob enough for joining. We are honored to call them friends and appreciate all the work they are both doing to make energy, the environment, the inherent trade-offs, and decarbonization broadly more understandable. Mike Bradley kicked us off by discussing key themes for 2024. Economically, he highlighted that markets are expecting the FED will engineer a soft landing and cut interest rates beginning in Q1. He noted this scenario was consensus and that this week's CPI and PPI prints could be the first true test of this “goldilocks” thesis. From a commodity standpoint, he noted that analyst's 2024 commodity forecasts are much higher than the 2024 commodity futures curve, indicating 2024 estimates may be adjusted lower and could result in some energy equity headwinds in Q1'24. US natural gas production surprised in 2023, and investors are asking when will natural gas-levered E&Ps begin ramping up activity in anticipation of a 2025 LNG ramp. From a crude production standpoint, he flagged that one of the biggest surprises in 2023 was that U.S. crude oil production growth nearly doubled expectations and that in turn raises qu

We hope you all had a fantastic holiday season and that you are excited about the New Year! We had a special guest join us yesterday to kick off 2024. We have been lucky enough to get to know a number of Senators, Governors and Congressional Representatives over the past few years. One that we have been getting to know better recently is Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana. Sharp, informed, well read, very funny, and representing a very important energy and industrial state, Senator Kennedy never disappoints when any public policy matter is up for thoughtful debate. We felt particularly lucky he took some time to brainstorm the coming year with us in this Special Edition COBT. As you will hear, Mike Bradley, Jeff Tillery and I explored a broad range of topics with the Senator including domestic and international challenges facing the United States in 2024, the divide in Washington regarding climate issues, Senator Kennedy's stance on climate change, the role of the government and private sector, the erosion of public confidence in institutions, and potential strategies for restoring that confidence. We also touch on the importance of leadership and transparent communication, power demand growth and infrastructure challenges, and the need to improve the understanding of energy-related issues in Washington. Senator Kennedy shares his perspective on the significance of the United States projecting strength and power and his optimistic outlook on American resilience in overcoming challenges. We are very grateful to Senator Kennedy for sharing his time and valuable insights with us all. Speaking of kicking off the New Year, we attended the Goldman Sachs Energy, CleanTech and Utilities Conference in Miami this week (agenda linked here). Arjun Murti spoke on a panel addressing “Where Are We in the Commodities Cycle?” I am biased but I thought he did a great job discussing why energy is so important globally, why energy broadly is an attractive sector, and why oil and gas peak demand is nearly impossible to predict. Overall, we saw many friends old and new, and increasingly perceive that Veriten's mission of “truth in energy” is gaining more visibility and support. Special thanks to Neil Mehta and the entire Goldman Sachs research team for having us and congratulations to them on a great kickoff to the year. We will return next week with the regular COBT schedule. We have a very fun “2-year Veriten Anniversary” show planned! Again, Happy 2024 and thank you for your friendship and support!