Podcast appearances and mentions of arjun murti

Kevin Gordon, Charles Schwab Senior Investment Strategist kicks off the show, tracking the S&P 500 ‘s first down day in the last 10 session. Morgan breaks down Palantir's quarterly numbers, plus a bull-and-bear debate on the stock with Dan Ives, Wedbush Global Head of Technology Research, and Brent Thill, Jefferies Analyst. Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler Chief Investment Strategist, joins on the macro and Fed outlook, while Arjun Murti, Partner at Veriten, weighs in on the energy sector and falling oil prices. Plus, Hollywood gets caught in the crosshairs of U.S.–China trade tensions—our Julia Boorstin reports on the growing tariff risks for the entertainment industry.

In this episode of the Value Perspective, co-hosted by Arjun Murti, we're honoured to welcome Niall MacDowell. Niall is a professor at Imperial College London, a Chartered Engineer and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Chemistry. He is a public and private sector consultant and recently contributed to the UK's Net Zero strategy. In this episode, we explore the growing sense of exhaustion in the climate change debate and unpack how Net Zero targets were established despite being nearly impossible to achieve. We take a closer look at the decision-making frameworks guiding solar energy adoption and discuss why economic prosperity and human welfare, especially in the developing world, must be part of the climate conversation. Finally, we examine the true cost of adaptation in the rapidly changing world. Enjoy! NEW EPISODES: We release main series episodes every two weeks on Mondays. You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://tvpschroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and other podcast players. GET IN TOUCH: send us a tweet: @TheValueTeam  Important information. This podcast is for investment professionals only. Marketing material for Financial Professionals and Professional Clients only.  The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations.  Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions.  Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.  Diversification cannot ensure profits or protect against loss of principal.  The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested.  Exchange rate changes may cause the value of investments to fall as well as rise.  Investing in emerging markets and securities with limited liquidity can expose investors to greater risk.  Private assets investments are only available to Qualified Investors, who are sophisticated enough to understand the risk associated with these investments.  This material may contain “forward-looking” information, such as forecasts or projections. Please note that any such information is not a guarantee of any future performance and there is no assurance that any forecast or projection will be realised.  Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. The views and opinions contained herein are those of the individuals to whom they are attributed and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds.  Any reference to regions/ countries/ sectors/ stocks/ securities is for illustrative purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instruments or adopt a specific investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider's consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data.  

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We will start with an apology to those of you that prefer the written notes but with the Super Vol nature of this tariff trade war and the dramatic market moves, we are going to do another short video. We tried our best to avoid “hot takes” and stick with how to think about what it means for the Energy sector over the long run—i.e., the “long takes.” For companies and investors that are not trying to day trade this crazy market, there are some fundamental questions about how to think about the macro, CAPEX, M&A, and what to do with so much uncertainty. We would like to wish everyone that celebrates a Happy Easter. We too will be enjoying the long weekend and will publish our next Super-Spiked in two weeks.

What does global energy transition look like in a time of major geopolitical change, including rebalancing of trade? In this special episode of "Energized: The Future of Energy”, host JJ Ramberg and Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel talk to Arjun Murti, partner at Veriten and founder of the energy transition newsletter Super-Spiked. They discuss the impact of President Trump's new energy policies, the role of North America in the global energy transition, and the possible impact of tariffs and trade tension on the energy sector.Host: JJ Ramberg and Greg Ebel Guest: Arjun Murti Subscribe to the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.

What does global energy transition look like in a time of major geopolitical change, including rebalancing of trade? In this special episode of "Energized: The Future of Energy”, host JJ Ramberg and Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel talk to Arjun Murti, partner at Veriten and founder of the energy transition newsletter Super-Spiked. They discuss the impact of President Trump's new energy policies, the role of North America in the global energy transition, and the possible impact of tariffs and trade tension on the energy sector.Host: JJ Ramberg and Greg Ebel Guest: Arjun Murti Subscribe to the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We had intended to publish a written note this week that we thought had some interesting analysis on energy sub-sector profitability over what we consider to be the 2021-2024 mini-cycle. But President Trump's April 2 “Liberation Day” Rose Garden event squashed those publication plans. OPEC decided to add to the noise with its own surprise announcement that it would add additional volumes. As of the April 3 close, energy equities, oil commodities, and the broader stock market have been hit hard and we have pivoted this week to producing a short video podcast to share our thoughts. With the major caveat that we are one day into whatever this potential new paradigm is—and given our aversion to providing “hot takes” on the news of the day—we wanted to offer some initial long-term perspectives on macro developments, i.e., “long takes” so to speak.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week's video is a follow up to last week's written post titled "What Does Energy Pragmatism Mean for Climate & Sustainability" (here). We wanted to expand on some of the points in our own voice and also address various questions and pushback we have received.Our key messages this week: (1) Energy pragmatism means a return to energy's natural hierarchy of needs, rather than the inverted version that pretended anyone anywhere prioritizes carbon emission reductions over energy availability and reliability; (2) investment flows into non-fossil fuel energy sources are not impacted by western world virtue signaling, as the climate bubble actually peaked way back in 2021; (3) the other 7 billion people in developing markets hold the key to how energy markets will evolve in coming decades, not us Lucky 1 Billioners.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.This past week we attended CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston. Pragmatism, balance, and realism have been the themes uttered by just about every single speaker. Some have long been in this camp. Others are new. All are welcomed. We are still embracing inclusivity at Super-Spiked. Some will say we shouldn't be so forgiving to those people that 5 minutes ago were calling for an end to fossil fuel investment and are now suddenly seeing the light in regards to reliability, geopolitical security, and affordability. You, our loyal subscribers, know where we have been standing all along. It is our mission that the dialogue, understanding, and macro energy policies recognize energy's natural hierarchy of needs, where all anyone anywhere at all times cares about is can I use energy right now. Without energy access there is nothing. So in that spirit, we welcome everyone to the world of pragmatism.Before we get into our Top 10 takeaways from CERAWeek 2025, we would like to offer our congratulations to Dan Yergin, Atul Arya, and everyone at S&P Global for putting on a world class show. We learned a ton and caught up with many friends and colleagues from around the world. There is no conference like CERAWeek that brings together all of the global energy industry in one place.

Greetings, and welcome back to the podcast.This episode we are joined by Mr. Arjun Murti - Partner at Veriten LLC and a Senior Advisor at Warburg Pincus. Mr. Murti has spent over 30 years on Wall Street as a sell-side equity research analyst, buy-side investor, advisor and board member covering the global energy sector. Mr. Murti previously served as a Partner at Goldman Sachs from 2006 to 2014. Prior to becoming Partner, he served as Managing Director from 2003 to 2006 and as Vice President from 1999 to 2003. During his time at Goldman Sachs, Mr. Murti worked as a sell-side equity research analyst covering the energy sector. He was co-director of equity research for the Americas from 2011 to 2014. Previously, Mr. Murti held equity analyst positions at JP Morgan Investment Management from 1995 to 1999 and at Petrie Parkman from 1992 to 1995. Mr. Murti serves on the board of directors of ConocoPhillips & Liberty Energy Inc. He also serves on the advisory boards of ClearPath and Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy and as a board observer to Welligence Energy Analytics. Mr. Murti graduated with a business degree specializing in finance from the University of Denver,Since November 2021, Mr. Murti has published Super-Spiked, a Substack newsletter and podcast about the energy transition.Among other things, we discussed The End of the Energy Transition Era & What it Means for Investors.Enjoy.Thank you to our sponsors.Without their support this episode would not be possible:Connate Water SolutionsATB Capital MarketsEnergy United 360 Engineering & Environmental ConsultingEVA SoftwareBroadbill EnergySupport the show

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We follow up on last week's post that heralded The Rise of the Energy Pragmatism Era (here). No more inverting the hierarchy of needs with non-sensical net-zero-is-all-that-matters energy outlooks that would subjugate vast swaths of humanity to ongoing poverty. We have moved into an exciting and even fun new period for all things energy—new, old and everything in between. Oil & gas is converging with power. Technology and energy are converging in the sense that you can't have the former without the latter. Billion-person scale economies in the developing world are doing whatever it takes to bring wealth to their citizens—all of which is synonymous with energy growth. And for those regions it will be a focus on reliability, affordability, and geopolitics that will motivate an increasingly diverse mix of energy sources and technology. This is not about looking backwards...it's about the path forward.This week's video will start our discussion on new opportunities that could arise as energy pragmatism spreads, in particular to regions that had been most in “climate only” mode. What regions have been left behind that deserve a fresh look? How can we best meet the substantial energy needs of ALL 8 billion people on Earth? Real economics are returning, not unsustainable rich-country government handouts to the wealthiest amongst us. Welcome to The Energy Pragmatism Era!

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.The firehose of news flow out of the new Trump administration since, and frankly preceding, his inauguration has not stopped. While US presidents throughout history seem to elicit strong reactions, President Trump inspires a degree of hysteria from those that oppose him and a do-no-wrong deference from his supporters. What we find is that whatever the issue is—it could be domestic spending, sanctions, or tariffs—when someone has an obviously dripping disdain for Trump, it weakens the efficacy of their argument, even if partly accurate. The opposite is also true. We find both extremes to be pretty unhelpful in sorting through what matters. By the time this video podcast is published, President Trump will have only been in office for 4 weeks: there are still 3 years and 48 weeks to go—permanent freak out mode is not sustainable or healthy! In this week's video, which we recorded a little earlier than usual due to some travel this past week, we address a number of questions that have arisen. We are going to do our best to use our equity research analyst's mindset to assess policy actions taken or proposed. This means our only goal is to make the right call and provide the best insight we can for the companies we advise. We will keep our answers focused on how it all might impact the long-term energy macro and corporate strategy.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.As long-time Super-Spiked subscribers know, we are not about “hot takes” on the issue of the day. With that said, it's been an incredible first week and a half since the US inaugurated its 47th president. A fire hose of Trump-driven news has instantly recast global narratives around energy and geopolitics as well as as a host of other topics we don't normally cover in Super-Spiked. The World Economic Forum's Davos gathering happened last week. And DeepSeek, a Chinese AI program in the spirt of ChatGPT and related programs, burst onto the scene after its US iPhone app went viral last weekend, upending stock markets and in particular anything and everything related to the A.I. trade. We are going to try our best to put this torrent of news flow in the context of what it might mean for the longer-term trends and outlook for the energy that is our bread and butter.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.It's been a great start to the year for the traditional energy and power sectors broadly speaking. This video will publish just two days before we have a new administration here in the U.S. And as we highlighted in our last few Super-Spiked's from December as well as the “Big Themes for 2025” outlook post from last week (here), we feel considerable optimism that the narratives and perspectives about energy are becoming more pragmatic and sensible after a pretty rough stretch over 2021-2024 where a very narrow definition of “The Energy Transition” unfortunately dominated energy mindspace. Our confidence that that era decisively came to a close in 2024was on a full display in what was a remarkably civil and mostly thoughtful confirmation hearing for Chris Wright, president-elect Trump's nominee to be energy secretary, conducted by the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. In this video we hope to further expand on our key themes for 2025 through the lens of some of the pushbacks or key questions we have been fielding.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. We follow up on our written post from last week, Reflections On The End of The Energy Transition Era (here), to talk about important lessons learned from what was an insane period of time. This week will dive into the importance of governance, an area that frankly is often a bit of a black box for investors and those not involved in board-level discussions. We'll include a disclaimer upfront. The comments this week are generic to our 32-year career as an equity research analyst studying and engaging with the energy sector. We are not referring to any specific companies that we are personally involved with or via our role at Veriten.

This holiday weekend on our Inside the Coffeehouse series, we welcome Arjun Murti and Jeff Currie back into the SmarterMarkets™ studio.   Arjun is Partner at Veriten and Publisher of "Super-Spiked" on Substack. Jeff Currie is Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle.   David Greely sits down with Jeff and Arjun, reuniting these two former Goldman partners and colleagues to share their perspectives on the market, economic, and political forces shaping the future of our energy markets.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We hope all of you that tune in or read Super-Spiked know that we try our hardest to be non-partisan and present views from what we refer to as an equity analyst's mindset, which means it does not matter what we personally think about an issue, we are just trying to make the right call. But this week we will confess that we are excited about the new energy team that has been proposed by president-elect former president Donald Trump with North Dakota governor Doug Burgum for Secretary of Interior and Liberty Energy CEO Chris Wright for Secretary of Energy. President Trump has also proposed creating a new National Energy Council that will be headed by Governor Burgum that will look to co-ordinate a whole-of-government approach to energy policies.We will apologize in advance that we are likely to sound far more partisan than we prefer. For those of you listening that either serve or have served in Democrat administrations—or that simply were not happy with how the recent election turned out—please know that we highly value you as a subscriber and we appreciate our ongoing engagement with those of you in that camp that we regularly dialogue with.The appointments of Governor Burgum and Mr. Wright signify a return to an approach to energy that puts abundance, reliability, security, and affordability at its core and an “all of the above” approach to harnessing American energy resources and technology. We would contrast this with the prior administration's emphasis on addressing climate change, which we see as a subsidiary issue within energy and should not be the centering policy point that comes with a climate activist agenda. The “climate only” focus of recent years that took hold in the aftermath of COVID was a motivating factor for the creation of Super-Spiked and our eventual un-retirement and joining Veriten. Chris Wright in particular has been outspoken via his Bettering Human Lives report (here). The report beautifully articulates why we use energy in the first place: to better human lives. Super-Spiked and Bettering Human Lives share a common worldview and motivating spirit. In this week's video podcast we will discuss how re-prioritizing energy abundance, reliability, security, and affordability differs from the “climate only” agenda of the past several years from the perspective of energy equities. Our written post from last week, which we would encourage you to read, addressed various macro and policy issues around energy scenario analysis, power, new energies, and oil markets (here).

Happy Veterans Day to all who served and Happy Remembrance Day for our British, Canadian, and Australian friends. Today (and every day), we thank you and your families for your service and sacrifice. With the election behind us and the transition of a new administration on the horizon, we brought together three esteemed friends of the firm and previous COBT guests for a Special Edition of COBT. We wanted to brainstorm with them what happens next in energy policy-making. We were honored to host Anne Bradbury, CEO of the American Exploration and Production Council (AXPC), Bill Flores, Vice Chairman of ERCOT, former Congressman, and Veriten Senior Advisor, and Maria Korsnick, CEO of the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI). Each of these leaders has been a strong advocate for energy in Washington and brings deep insight into the complexities of energy legislation. Arjun Murti, Brett Rampal and I were thrilled to join and hear their immediate reactions and perspectives on what the incoming administration could mean for the future of energy. In our discussion, we explore the implications of the Trump Administration for energy policy, expecting broadly that the new administration will focus on energy reliability, affordability and infrastructure. We discuss potential changes to the Inflation Reduction Act to make it more technology-agnostic and more supportive of dispatchable energy sources, including nuclear and natural gas. There was a lot of speculation about “leaving the carrots but getting rid of the sticks” and also “the use of a scalpel and not a sledgehammer.” Bill shares insights on critical Congressional dynamics, how to handle any potential obstacles the current administration may put in place before leaving office, and the importance for energy policymakers to work on areas of agreement across the aisle to ensure truly durable energy policies. Anne emphasizes that in terms of environmental regulations, the US oil and gas industry is willing and able to show that they are the cleanest system globally already, and that they are ready to meet heightened regulatory standards, but that these standards need to be resilient and realistic to avoid constant swings with each administration. Maria highlights federal policy that NEI is supporting to incentivize initial first-of-a-kind builds as well as needed policy reforms to strengthen grid capacity and streamline permitting. We go on to cover the potential influence of Elon Musk if he assumes a role in the new administration, the importance of ending the partisan divide in energy policy, the need to prioritize American energy dominance across both traditional and new energy technologies, the value of experienced career staff in DC to ensure effective policy implementation, and much more. Overall, we are feeling optimistic for American energy in the next administration as the change provides an opportunity to keep what's good but change what's not. There were many references in our discussion to “not throw the baby out with the bathwater.” We are immensely grateful to Anne, Bill and Maria for their friendship and for joining us. We hope you find the conversation as interesting and insightful as we did. God bless our veterans, and our best to you all!

This week we provide some initial thoughts on the U.S. election, the bulk of which was decisively declared on election night itself. We regularly emphasize that we aim to bring an equity research analyst's mindset to evaluating the energy sector. That means we are simply trying to make the correct call on what we think will happen—not what we personally wish would happen or hope will happen. And we will do our best to stick with that in this video podcast, though when it comes to emotionally charged topics like elections, we'd have to admit that some amount of wish casting and personal opinion will creep in.In terms of Super-Spiked subscribers, we are going to guess that many of you, perhaps even a majority, will be pretty excited about the election results. But we also take a lot pride in the fact that we have a substantial contingent of subscribers that were hoping for a different outcome. The world is a better place for all of those viewpoints. And we thank all of you, those that agree with us and those that disagree, for your ongoing constructive engagement. As we repeatedly say, we are looking for the pushback to our views. It makes us better analysts.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. We recorded this video podcast with a little less than a week to go before the November 5 US elections. We are seeing a lot of punditry commentary about what choosing one side or the other would mean for this policy or that sector and who will be the winners and losers depending on the outcome. We get it. There are differences between the parties, their areas of emphasis, and their rhetoric. But when it comes to the big picture outlook for the energy sector, we want to remind everyone that the structural macro trends unquestionably transcend micro politics. This is something we wrote about in our July 27, 2024 Super-Spiked, Does the US president's party impact the energy macro results? (here). At a high level, the answer is a firm “no.”Clearly individual companies and specific projects can be impacted as we have seen via the lack of approval for various pipeline projects or the LNG permit pause or the granting of tax credits to various new technologies. So yes, a specific company can be impacted by who wins. But at the big picture level, we believe the mega trends triumph over micro politics. Moreover, as we will show with the last 2 elections, various sectors did not perform as conventional wisdom expected.

Today we had the honor of hosting Senator John Cornyn of Texas, who has served in the US Senate since 2002 and is now in his fourth term. Senator Cornyn has been a steadfast advocate for Texas interests and supports policies that promote responsible domestic traditional energy production while exploring new energy sources to strengthen US energy independence. Senator Cornyn has held several key leadership roles including Republican Whip and currently serves on the Senate Finance, Intelligence, and Judiciary Committees. Before joining the Senate, Senator Cornyn served as a district judge, a member of the Texas Supreme Court and Texas Attorney General. We were thrilled to connect with Senator Cornyn for an election, energy and geopolitical focused discussion one week away from the 2024 Presidential Election. We begin by asking Senator Cornyn for his perspective on escalating international conflicts and global geopolitical tensions, including the Iran-Israel conflict, North Korea's involvement in Ukraine, and threats from Russia and China. We discuss the importance of robust US intelligence and deterrence to maintain global stability, the need for proactive US leadership in foreign conflicts, and the reality that “our holiday from history is over.” Senator Cornyn outlines opportunities and challenges in the coming lame duck session, key legislative actions, and Congressional priorities including national defense funding, tax policy, and the federal budget, as well as key Senate races and the potential for Republicans to retake the Senate. We explore America's energy potential, the strategic importance of US LNG to European allies, challenges with transmission and permitting for energy infrastructure, the evolution of US policy toward China, the possibility of permitting reform, and the merits of state versus federal power. We also touch on incentives for reshoring critical manufacturing to address supply chain vulnerabilities, national debt and budget priorities, and the critical importance of national unity despite political differences. It was a fantastic discussion, and we are very grateful to Senator Cornyn and his team for their continued efforts on behalf of the energy community. Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by highlighting that markets this week are increasingly focused on a handful of Big Tech Q3 earnings and next week's Presidential election. On the bond market front, bond traders continue to be perplexed that the 10yr bond yield has spiked from 3.6% back to 4.3% over the last month, which is a higher level than the 10yr was trading prior to the 50-basis point cut at the September 18th FOMC Meeting. He noted that bond traders seem to be betting that Trump will win the Presidency and that his promise of Chinese Tariff increases and significant Federal regulatory cuts might lead to higher “real” growth and higher deficits. On the crude oil market front, WTI had fallen roughly $5/bbl this week on a brief de-escalation in Mideast tensions and concerns that Chinese economic stimulus plans would disappoint. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 continues to post new highs. Big Tech stocks seem to be retaking market leadership given that the market-weighted S&P 500 Index is again outperforming the equal-weighted S&P 500 Index. On the energy equity front, lower oil prices are leading many energy companies to take a more cautious approach on their Q3 calls which is continuing to weigh on the entire sector. Arjun Murti emphasized that long-term macroeconomic trends are more influential than election outcomes alone, and that a balanced “all-of-the-above” approach to support maximizing traditional resource production and exports as well as new energy technologies is crucial not only for the US but for developing nations seeking diversified energy for geopolitical and economic stability. We hope you find today's discussion as interesting and insightful as we di

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.Amidst the geopolitical and macro turmoil, we take a step back this week to turn back to how companies can think about outperformance through all the volatility. One can't be frozen and simply wait for a calmer or better time to materialize. No one should be sitting around waiting for an easy bull market to emerge. Long-time Super-Spiked subscribers will know that we are long-running advocates for companies focusing on profitability and a fortress balance sheet. This week we will start the process of spending some time on the "G" word: growth. Growth became a 4-letter word for investors after the surge in CAPEX during the Super-Spike era and subsequent US shale boom led to profitless growth--something we have spent a lot of time discussing in prior posts.And let us be clear, profits and balance sheet health remain the priority. That said, there is no doubt investors will always side with companies that can grow versus those that cannot grow at a given level of profitability and balance sheet strength. The trick is to hit the trifecta: growth, returns, and balance sheet strength. Moreover, for especially the upstream portion of the industry where asset life is finite--oil and gas fields naturally deplete--it is critical to adequately reinvest back in the business if a company is to persist as a going concern.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we continue the theme of normalization. The 2020-2023 period of “urgent energy transition,” “peak oil and gas demand,” and ESG hysteria we think is fading. It is being replaced with what we would call “normal” supply/demand/price volatility concerns. The biggest issue right now facing oil markets has been uncertainty on the outlook for China in particular. Going back to the super-cycle days of 20 years ago, we have long looked at copper markets to provide insights into China, given China is over 50% of copper demand. A noticeable gap has opened between weak crude oil prices and more resilient copper. Historically, the gap has closed with crude following the direction of copper. We shall see if history repeats.

In this insightful episode of Wicked Energy with JG, Justin Gauthier sits down with Arjun Murti to delve into the intricacies of global oil demand and the evolving energy landscape. Arjun criticizes extreme political positions on oil and gas, advocating for a balanced approach to energy production and innovation. He sheds light on the governments stance on fracking and the broader implications of U.S. energy policies. The discussion pivots to China's "all of the above" energy strategy, highlighting their investment in coal, nuclear, natural gas, and renewables to ensure energy security. Arjun provides an analysis of China's significant influence on global oil markets and the challenges and opportunities posed by their demographic shifts. Other key topics include the economic viability of biofuels, short-term and long-term oil price forecasts, and the impact of interest rate cuts on the energy sector. The episode wraps up with insights into Veriten's strategic advisory work across the oil and gas value chain. LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/arjun-murti-energy-analyst/ Websites: https://arjunmurti.substack.com/ Show Sponsors InflowControl InflowControl is a tech firm specializing in enhancing oil production efficiency and minimizing environmental harm through their Autonomous Inflow Control Valve (AICV®). The technology boosts profitability in mature oil fields by filtering out undesired gas and water, allowing previously overlooked zones to contribute to production. This results in both higher profitability and Lower Carbon Oil for stakeholders. For more information, visit the links below: Website: www.inflowcontrol.no LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/inflowcontrol-as/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqdgIooQhYtUBo-auUlYw-Q Mainline Ventures Mainline Ventures stands alone as the premier strategy consulting firm dedicated to the energy sector, founded by former E&P C-Suite executives. They transform deal-making from an art into a science with their Process Driven Negotiation Technique, focusing on active deals and offering services like bespoke training, deal advising, and go-to-market strategies, often on a contingency basis due to their strategy's proven effectiveness. This approach not only yields measurable, scalable results but also seamlessly integrates with your existing operations, ensuring long-term sustainability without the need for changes in your team or technology. LinkedIn Link: https://www.linkedin.com/company/mainlineventures/ Website: https://mainline-ventures.com/

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.We are using the occasion of our 50th Super-Spiked video podcast to provide thoughts, lessons learned, and new perspectives gained from the first 49 videopods, 90 written posts, and what is now nearly 3 years of publishing Super-Spiked content. As always, we are especially appreciative of both the positive and constructive feedback from all subscribers; we really do love hearing from you. Our glass half-full world view sees energy narratives and conversations slowly but surely becoming more reasonable and less focused on extremist singular goals. There is a growing recognition that until you solve for how everyone on Earth will some day become energy rich, you will never solve sub-goals in areas like the environment or climate. We continue to believe geopolitical imperatives will be the driver of new energy technologies and sources for large population centers that are not blessed with abundant crude oil resources.

It's back to school time and we could not think of a better guest than Arjun Murti. With over 30 years on Wall Street covering the global energy sector, he could write a textbook on the topic. Arjun joins host Ed Coyne for a far-ranging conversation on global energy and how energy security shapes our lives.This podcast is provided for information purposes only from sources believed to be reliable. However, Sprott does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Any opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Any opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments, or strategies. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned or related to the information herein. This communication may not be redistributed or retransmitted, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of Sprott. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitute your agreement not to redistribute or retransmit the contents and information contained in this communication without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of Sprott.

As global oil consumption reaches new record highs, Double Take welcomes Arjun Murti, an expert on energy markets, to barrel into the paradoxical state of the oil industry amid global energy transitions.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we provide the third installment of our August series on “30 Years of Perpetual Transition” with a look at a number of noteworthy geopolitical and policy developments that have occurred. A key conclusion is that some events that were expected to be impactful were not, while others that had less fanfare did have a bigger impact. Some countries had grand openings that resulted in dramatically higher oil or gas supply. Others, not so much. Two weeks ago we discussed some of the different macro drivers that have changed over the course of our career (here). Last week we focused on sectors, business models, and strategy shifts (here). All of it is to point out that energy markets are forever changing. Energy transition has become an unfortunate and loaded term that most people would define as meaning a transition out of fossil fuels and into renewables over an arbitrarily short time frame like 2050. We do not agree that definition of energy transition is happening or would be desirable from the perspective of human prosperity. But there is a need for industry executives, investors, and policy makers to recognize that energy is in perpetual transition and that one needs to always be looking forward with a focus on the important drivers of change and to not let mis-guided and ill-informed rhetoric cloud judgements.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we continue our series of "30 Years of Perpetual Transition" with a focus on how various energy sectors and business models have evolved. As a reminder, we recognize the term "energy transition" has become a loaded term, which most people now take to mean the idea that the world will be transitioning away from fossil fuels to renewables, over some arbitrarily short time frame like by 2050. We do not agree that this version of “energy transition” is on-track to happen or that it would be desirable from a human prosperity standpoint.But that does not mean nothing is changing. In fact, over the course of our 30-year career a ton of stuff has changed. Last week we focused on the energy macro with a closer look on big changes to the relative importance of various regions to oil demand (here). This week we will take a look at the major energy sub-sectors and give examples of how business models and risk taking have evolved.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. For the last month of summer, we are aiming to produce a series of hopefully short videos that highlight key lessons from the last 30 years of what we are calling perpetual transition in the energy space with an aim to offer insights on the go forward view. Energy transition itself has become a loaded term of late, typically referring to the idea that the world will be transitioning away from fossil fuels to renewables, over some arbitrarily short time frame like by 2050. We do not agree that this version of “energy transition” is on-track to happen or would be desirable from a human prosperity standpoint.But that does not mean nothing is changing. In fact, over the course of our 30-year career a ton of stuff has changed. And we have little doubt that the next 30 years will NOT look like the last 30 years. The macro has changed, sectors and company strategy have changed, business models evolve, new technologies and sources or location of energy supply emerge, demand changes, which stocks and sectors perform best changes. Everything is constantly transitioning. So to reiterate, we do not subscribe to what most people today mean by “energy transition,” as we expect all forms of energy to grow in coming decades. But under the hood, energy markets are constantly transitioning, and we do wish to better understand the direction the world is headed.Today's video is the first of our new series and will focus on “30 Years of Perpetual Transition” in the energy macro. Next week we plan to turn to the various energy sectors and company strategy. In other videos, we will look at geopolitics, policy, and the environment.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.Our Super-Spiked post last week (here) asked the question of “Does the US President's party matter to energy macro results?” Our over-arching conclusion is that the bark of presidential or party rhetoric is far worse than the bite. Energy is by nature a long-term business and mega trends around sources of supply, global economic growth, geopolitics, and capital spending cycles drive share price performance, crude oil and natural gas production, as well as CO2 emissions trends than does whichever party happens to be in power for a particular 4- or even 8-year period. The fact that these long-term trends dominate over-arching results—and we observed that there is a notable exception for particular projects that might impact specific companies, something like an approved or rejected oil or gas pipeline or perhaps a new energies subsidy—the long-term trends mean there is likely far more common ground among the major parties than there is disagreement. Yet all we hear about are the extremist edges of the debate. So in the spirt of peace, love, and unity, this week's video will focus on where there is or should be common ground among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents here in the United States.

We continue our Summer Playlist 2024 this week with Arjun Murti, Partner at Veriten and Publisher of “Super-Spiked” on Substack. David Greely sits down with Arjun to discuss America's energy independence – and what it will take to maintain America's energy exceptionalism to help meet rising global demand into a future of lower carbon and more sustainable energy.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we focus on the question “Can you trust the United Nations on energy and climate?” The question is sparked by a “climate change” warning label that YouTube placed on Super-Spiked Episode 37 “Goodbye Europe, Hello Rest of World” (here) that discussed an updated climate change statement from Barclays, German de-industrialization, and our thoughts on the role of US and Canadian traditional energy. The warning label linked to a United Nations website that highlighted what it described as “Facts” and “Myth Busters” on climate energy (here). In reviewing the 16 “facts,” we find that 2 we would agree are definitively facts, another 2-3 are factually true but start the U.N. down the road of advocacy and weaponizing the topic of climate, and the other 10-11 are a mix of opinion, advocacy, and in some cases outright falsehoods. Our concern with what the U.N. presents as “facts” is that it is the organization that oversees the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is widely (universally?) considered the authority on so-called climate science.We have spent considerable time in prior posts and videos discussing our concerns with institutional advocacy under the pretense of sober analysis from groups like the International Energy Agency (IEA), Glasgow Financial Alliance For Net Zero (GFANZ), and within bank and asset manager ESG/Sustainability groups. Frankly, we have been late to taking a closer look at the U.N. itself, most likely because we have not relied on its data directly and it has otherwise not been within the purview of our “Wall Street” approach to discussing energy and climate. The U.N. and IPCC clearly deserve greater scrutiny given their massive influence on how the world understands climate.

Today we had the honor of hosting former Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana. Senator Landrieu served for three terms from 1997 to 2015 and chaired the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, the Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee and the Homeland Security Appropriations Committee. She also served on the Armed Forces Committee. During her time in Washington, Senator Landrieu gained a reputation for working across the aisle on important energy and other national priorities. Currently, Senator Landrieu is Co-Chair of Natural Allies, a coalition of stakeholders that recognize the vital role natural gas plays in the energy mix to meet carbon reduction goals. We were thrilled to visit with Senator Landrieu. In our conversation we discuss how Louisiana's industrial base relies heavily on energy production and consumption, the historical bipartisanship in the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, how geography influences people's understanding and views on energy issues, the role of natural gas in reducing emissions, and why nuclear energy has bipartisan support. Senator Landrieu shares background on her role at Natural Allies and the group's focus on supporting US natural gas, the need to educate the public on the economic benefit of open markets particularly for US exports, finding ways to help countries like China and India reduce their reliance on coal, why the Senator disagreed with the Biden Administration's LNG permitting pause, and broadly the need for pragmatic, bipartisan energy and climate solutions. We explore SPR usage and levels, the status of permitting reform with significant delays expected until after the Presidential Election, finding practical solutions to reduce emissions and grow the economy through building infrastructure faster, and much more. It was a fantastic conversation and we are very grateful to Senator Landrieu for sharing her time and valuable insights with us all. She calls it like she sees it and is a very refreshing centrist voice. Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that 10-year bond yields continued their recent plunge after last week's cooler than expected CPI report and currently trade at ~4.15%. WTI price is trading at ~$81/bbl and has been stuck in a tight trading range ($80-$83/bbl) for the last several weeks. Crude oil traders are focused on global demand and are growing concerned with slowing global economic growth, especially China. U.S. natural gas continued its recent plunge and trades at ~$2.15/Mcf, despite Hurricane Beryl temporarily curtailing 1.7-1.8bcfd from Freeport LNG. He noted that U.S. natural gas production has rebounded back above 101bcfd and remains problematic given natural gas storage levels that are ~18% above normal. He discussed that the main word to describe broader equity market trading action this last week is “rotation.” Big 6 (AI & Tech equities) and broader equity indices like the S&P 500 & Nasdaq are significantly underperforming smaller-cap indices like the Russell 2000, which are perceived to be bigger beneficiaries of lower future inflation/interest rates. He ended by noting that Q2 Energy sector reporting begins this week with both pipelines (KMI) and oil services (LBRT, HAL & SLB) reporting. Arjun Murti shared his thoughts on the need for a diverse energy portfolio to meet global demands, the roles of the US and Canada as key players in both traditional and new energy markets, the unnecessary partisan divide over energy sources, and the importance of leveraging the US's leadership in technology and capital markets to lead in energy innovation. We hope you enjoy the discussion with Senator Landrieu as much as we did. Thanks to you all for your friendship and support!

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we honor America's upcoming 248th birthday on July 4th, when it declared independence from the King of England, and take a moment to celebrate the country's incredible achievements in the energy sector. As my friend and colleauge Paul Dabbar eloquently wrote in a terrific Hoover Institute piece that we would encourage all Super-Spiked subscribers to read (here), America is an energy superpower, a position we should lean into in coming years. Energy supply makes us as Americans and the Rest of the World richer. It betters human lives, to quote another friend Chris Wright, CEO of Liberty Energy. We have called this video American Energy Exceptionalism and it is a celebration of how fortunate we are with our endowment of substantial oil and natural gas resources, our world leading technology sector and culture of innovation and risk taking, and our leading capital markets and system of capitalism that underpins our national economic wealth.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. We turn back to our favorite topic and that is profitability and the goal of generating superior long-term share price performance. We spend a lot of time discussing ROCE, CROCI, and free cash flow. This week we wanted to talk about long-term stock buyback as one way to add per share growth to the equation and to highlight how buybacks plus M&A have contributed to significant outperformance from Murphy USA, the 2013 retail spin off from E&P parent Murphy Oil, which is in the very mature business of gas station and convenience store retailing. We also note the outperformance by the Big-3 US downstream companies versus the Majors, E&Ps, and the S&P 500.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. We are just back from 8 straight days on the road, so this is going to be a short video podcast that touches upon three themes: (1) pushback on our view that the total addressable market (TAM) for oil is at least double current demand; (2) perspectives on the NVIDIA-like move in merchant power generator equities; and (3) a preview of what's next for the now controversial term "energy transition"? Next weekend we will be enjoying the long Memorial Day holiday, with Super-Spiked returning the first Saturday in June. Enjoy!

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We follow-up to last week's post Obliterating Peak Oil Demand: A Progress Update (here). Our main issue with the peak oil demand narrative is that it it doesn't solve for how everyone on Earth will someday enjoy the lifestyles The Lucky 1 Billion of Us take for granted. We believe the total addressable market (TAM) for oil is 250 million b/d, well above current levels of around 103 million b/d. The analytical mistake we think many are making is deducting future electric vehicle (EV) growth from something near current oil demand as opposed to from oil's TAM when everyone on Earth ultimately lives within fully developed economies. Furthermore, EVs only address about 25% of the oil demand barrel and are unlikely to be viable solution for the entirety of even that sliver of demand.At its core, our long-term outlook for oil demand looks at the relationship between global GDP growth and the quantity of oil demand needed to generate a dollar of GDP. We observe the long-term trend that every year the world generally requires slightly less oil to generate a dollar of GDP, a concept we refer to as “efficiency gains.” In this case, efficiency gains includes both fuel economy (improving miles per gallon) and product substitution (e.g., EVs, SAF, RD). Based on our analysis of “efficiency gains”, there is essentially no evidence oil demand is on-track to plateau let alone decline in coming years. We believe there is not a decade let alone year when anyone today can definitively declare oil demand will peak. We show two country examples—China and India—which collectively have growth potential of 40-60 million b/d in order to reach a TAM that reflects a 10 barrels of oil demand per capita, consistent with “everyone being rich.” China and India are also examples of what we believe will be the main driver of limiting the TAM of oil markets to something well below 250 million b/d, which is geopolitical security. For countries that are not blessed with abundant crude oil resources, especially sizable ones like China and India, we see a strong motivation to limit growth in oil imports—the ultimate TAM limiter for oil markets.

Today we had the pleasure of hosting David Sacks, Fellow for Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), for a comprehensive discussion on China and the intricate dynamics of US-China, US-Taiwan, and cross-Strait relations. Prior to joining the CFR in 2017, David served at the American Institute in Taiwan focused on political military affairs. David's research spans Asia, China, Taiwan, defense and security, as well as political history and theory including the political thought of Hans Morgenthau. The CFR is an independent think-tank and publisher committed to providing insights into global affairs and serves as a resource for its members and the broader public in navigating the complexities of international relations. We have been interested for quite some time in finding an expert on China and were thrilled to visit with David. In our conversation, David first shares background on China's evolving role globally and the changing dynamics of US-China relations, the security-related and economic implications of conflict between China and Taiwan, the challenges in managing tensions in the Taiwan Strait, escalating tensions in the South China Sea, US-China rivalry in the region and its effects on maritime activity, and China's assertive foreign policy under Xi Jinping's leadership and its implications for global power dynamics. David shares his perspective on similarities and differences between the Trump and Biden Administrations' approaches to China, the feasibility and implications of decoupling from China economically and the interdependence between the US and China in the global economy, the potential for future leadership changes in China, and how other countries are responding to China's assertiveness including how European perceptions and policies towards China have evolved. We explore China's economic and demographic outlook and the country's overall strengths and weaknesses, potential implications if China were to become weaker in the next 10-20 years, the potential export of low-cost EVs from China, trust issues in US-China relations, Taiwan's perspective and defense strategies, the CFR's role in international diplomacy, and much more. Thank you, David, for sharing your insights with us all! We learned a tremendous amount and could have gone another hour we were so intrigued with the conversation. Mike Bradley kicked us off with a few updates. He noted the 10-year government bond yield looks to have found some temporary support at ~4.6% but will likely move on Friday's PCE deflator report. WTI (~$83/bbl) pulled back this past week on what looks to be temporary cooling in Mideast tension. Oil trader sentiment seems to have shifted to one that could be underestimating future geopolitical risks, which could send oil prices materially higher, and force OPEC to push barrels back into the market. Q4 earnings are kicking into high gear with ~35% of S&P 500 companies reporting this week, which should result in elevated broader market trading volatility. S&P 500 relative strength has recently reversed from overbought to oversold levels, and S&P 500 volatility has also spiked to 1-year highs. On the energy equity front, he highlighted that Q1 results are also beginning to kick into high gear with a barrage of results from E&Ps, Oil Majors, Oil Services & Refiners. Electric Utilities were by far the best performing S&P sector last week and there will be many companies reporting this week. He ended by discussing YTD Asian equity market performance, noting that Japan and Taiwan are the top two regional equity market performers. Arjun Murti discussed the concept of geopolitical risk premiums in oil prices, noting three key factors: structural changes in major producers, civil strife causing production fluctuations and difficult forecasting, and the impact of war. Sharing examples for each element, he noted the complex nature of geopolitical risk and its influence on s

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. We follow up on last week's deep post (here) on cash return on gross capital invested (CROCI), which we view as a complementary profitability metric to return on capital employed (ROCE). The videopod starts with the reasons to introduce a second, primary metric due to some of the issues with ROCE around write-offs and the inherent incentive to under-invest given the nature of the ROCE calculation. We discuss how CROCI offers different insights at the sub-sector level. Finally, we provide hypothetical examples based on actual company data for two companies that took large write-offs that boosted ROCE in subsequent years; one company continued to lag on CROCI while the other showed fundamental improvement. It is this kind of divergence that we find interesting, especially when ROCE is rendered less meaningful due to recent large impairment charges. As always, we welcome feedback, pushback, and discussion on this (and all!) topics we discuss.

Today we were thrilled to be joined by Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), to discuss a critical yet often ignored topic: the US national debt and budget deficits. Prior to her tenure at the CRFB starting in 2004, Maya served at the Brookings Institution and on Wall Street. Maya is a native Washingtonian, Harvard Kennedy School alumni, and frequently testifies before Congress as a leading budget expert. Founded in 1981, the CRFB is a bipartisan nonprofit dedicated to educating the public on issues with significant fiscal policy impact. The organization offers independent policy analysis, engages with policymakers to improve the country's fiscal and economic condition, and serves as an educational resource. At over 100% of GDP and in the range of the all-time high last seen during World War 2, the US national debt looms large as a significant macroeconomic and overall risk factor to the nation and the world. We were so excited to hear Maya's insights on this very important and very complex subject. In our conversation, Maya shares historical context on past efforts to address fiscal issues and how interest in fiscal policy has fluctuated (from Ross Perot to Simpson-Bowles to today), the current economic situation, the impact of recent events like COVID-19 on government borrowing and spending, how the increase in interest rates has highlighted the structural nature of the problem and gained the public's attention, and the current polarizing political environment and how it has halted efforts to address fiscal challenges. We discuss the responsibility of political leaders to acknowledge and address long-term budget concerns, challenges with addressing entitlement programs including Social Security and Medicaid, political leaders' refusal to address issues that are headed towards trust fund insolvency, proposed solutions including establishing a fiscal commission to tackle the issue comprehensively, the idea of inflating away the debt or selling assets to reduce the debt, major threats posed by the growing national debt including loss of fiscal space, economic slowdown, national security risks and intergenerational inequity, and much more. We covered a great deal of territory and can't thank Maya enough for joining. As you will hear, we offered to help Maya in any way we can, including helping her salute the “fiscal heroes” who are leaning in and trying to make a difference.   Mike Bradley kicked us off by flagging that this is an extremely important week for markets given both the March CPI and PPI will be released on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, and that if these stats print hotter-than-expected, the FED will not be cutting rates anytime soon. He noted markets may be underestimating inflation given sharp YTD gains in a variety of commodities. On the commodity front, WTI is trading at ~$86/bbl (highest level since Oct'23), WTI time spreads continue to trade in huge backwardation and the 2H'24 oil S/D deficit positions OPEC to push barrels back into the market. He noted that even though we remain pretty constructive with the 2H'24 crude oil setup, we're a bit concerned the recent crude oil bullishness is becoming too consensus. On the broader equity market front, equities continue to take their cue from both interest rates and an obsession with AI equities. If CPI and PPI readings print cooler-than-expected, it will result in a huge bond and broader equity market rally. This Friday will also be a heavy Q4 reporting week for U.S. major banks. He ended by highlighting that Exxon Mobil Corp. recently hit an all-time stock price high and that its market-cap and enterprise values (~$500B) finally rebounded back to their late-2007 levels. In late 2007, energy's weighting as a percentage of the S&P 500 was ~13% (peaked at ~16% in mid-2008) and today is at ~4%, leaving the energy sector plenty more room to run in the years ahead. Arjun Murti dis

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We spent this past week in Houston attending CERAWeek 2024. It was another great event; thank you and congratulations to everyone at S&P Global for hosting and putting on a great show!Coming out of last year's event, our key theme was “The Energy Transition Needs To Transition” away from an obsessive focus on only counting carbon to one that centered itself around meeting the massive unmet energy needs of everyone on Earth with affordable, reliable, and geopolitically secure energy, which in turn would better enable environmental objectives to be met. A year later, we see “green shoots” that a healthier energy evolution era is emerging and that “The New Energy Transition Narratives” we discuss in this week's videopod are increasingly aligned with our framing.Energy demand is increasing nearly everywhere with all energy sources and a host of both traditional and new technologies. The developing world appears to be gaining confidence to go its own way, with diminishing western world influence. And the new trend of artificial intelligence (AI)-driven power demand growth is waking the US up to the needs for an “all of the above” energy approach if we are to have reliable and growing power generation. See our post from last week, “Will AI Be Our Salvation To A Healthier Energy Evolution?” (here).We see the potential for new business models, collaborations, and partnerships across energy value chains and between energy suppliers and users (Tech and Industrial sectors in particular) to be a likely future trend. It is about as interesting and dynamic of a period in the energy sector as we can remember over our 32-year career. We would like to wish everyone that celebrates a Happy Easter. We too will be enjoying the long weekend and will publish our next Super-Spiked in two weeks.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend &  Patrick Ceresna welcome former Goldman Sachs Partner and current Veriton partner, Arjun Murti. Erik and Arjun will discuss Arjun's outlook for where energy markets are and where they're headed in the coming energy transition. https://bit.ly/3IzFxxI   ⚫ Follow Arjun on X: https://www.twitter.com/ArjunNMurti  

It was our privilege today to welcome Paul Dabbar, CEO of Bohr Quantum Technology. In addition to his position at Bohr, Paul is a Senior Research Scholar and Distinguished Visiting Fellow at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a Board Member of Dominion Energy, and a Contributor to the Wall Street Journal. Paul's distinguished career in the energy sector spans several significant roles including his tenure as the Under Secretary for Science at the US Department of Energy from 2017 to 2021. Prior to that, he held senior finance and strategy roles at JP Morgan and he is also a nuclear marine officer and graduate of the US Naval Academy. We were delighted to visit with Paul. Our discussion centered on a recent piece Paul wrote for the Hoover Institution entitled “US Energy Superpower Status and a New US Energy Diplomacy” (linked here). The report examines how US energy diplomacy should shift to a more positive and powerful tone given the country's achievements in the industry in the past decade and its newfound status as the global energy superpower. In our conversation with Paul, we cover key themes from his report, the concept of an “all of the above” energy policy and the importance of balancing energy production, prices, emissions, and national security, the potential for collaboration between the US, Canada, and Norway, anticipated growth in electricity demand, strategies for developing countries in meeting their energy demand while reducing reliance on coal, and the benefits of the US partnering with other countries in offering both traditional energy resources and new technologies with lower carbon intensity. We discuss whether explicit carbon reduction goals are necessary, the effectiveness of innovation-led strategy, the government's role in supporting energy innovation, national security concerns particularly with regards to importing EVs and other energy-related technologies, Paul's perspective on reforming the IRA, the coordination of energy policy across various government agencies, and much more. It was a wide ranging and fascinating discussion. Thank you for joining, Paul!  Mike Bradley kicked us off by discussing the February CPI report, noting it was hotter than expected but had little impact on broader energy markets. Bitcoin and broader energy markets continue to be in a “risk-on-mode” driven by consensus of a soft-landing U.S. economic scenario and seem less focused on interest rates and more focused on AI/big tech euphoria. WTI continues to be relatively rangebound, crude oil time spreads have pulled back modestly but still remain in steep backwardation, and OPEC reiterated its previous 2024 demand growth forecast of 2.2mmbpd. In natural gas, prompt and the 12-month natural gas strip have pulled back modestly, U.S. natural gas storage this week increased to >30% above normal, and lower 48 dry gas production has decreased due to continued producer cutbacks. Mike also highlighted Shell's upcoming Energy Transition Report, the UK's allowance for new natural gas generation into the 2030s, and that data centers are desperate for power and could look at natural gas power generation as part of their power mix. He mentioned the EQT Corp and Equitran's Midstream merger and suggested that U.S. natural gas demand estimates may be underestimated given data center and C&I growth. Arjun Murti built on the themes Mike raised and emphasized the need for a healthier energy evolution that aligns policies with the necessity of meeting unmet energy needs while addressing environmental concerns and the evolving role of traditional energy in power generation. We hope you all enjoy the discussion as much as we did. Our best to you all!

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We focus on some of the big macro themes that have emerged from earnings season across the broader stock market, with a focus on electric vehicle (EV) adoption S-curves, artificial intelligence (AI), ongoing US energy sector M&A, and the role of Canadian energy companies looking forward. Trends with both EVs and AI add to our confidence that demand for all sources of energy, including oil and natural gas, will continue to grow for the foreseeable future. We do not believe anyone can know today which decade let alone year that oil or natural gas will definitively peak. We would encourage readers to review Ford CEO Jim Farley's introductory remarks on Ford's 4Q2023 earnings call. Mr. Farley recognized the challenges Ford is facing in ramping EV sales; and while the company remains committed to longer-term EV growth, it is clearly going to be at a slower pace than what was envisioned even one year ago. At the same time, Mr. Farley noted an uptick in hybrid vehicle sales, which, ironically, may be the technology most appropriate for US consumers and could eventually, and finally, lead to marked improvements in fuel economy. It has long been our view that it is inappropriate to use a uniform rapid EV adoption “s-curve” in all regions; we do not believe the examples of Norway (driven by climate policy) or China (driven by geopolitical security) will be representative of the United States, India, or many other developing countries. As it relates to traditional energy, we believe the belief that rapid global EV adoption will lead to oil demand rolling over within the next 5-10 years is not anywhere near on track to occur, especially when one considers the massive untapped energy demand of the other 7 billion on Earth that are not amongst The Lucky 1 Billion of us. We recognize that “AI” has become a major buzzword, and with that likely comes some hype and over-enthusiasm about the subject. That said, we are believers that the next major technology revolution is here. The relevance to energy is that implied power demand from AI technology use, datacenters, and related infrastructure will be massive. After about 20 years of broadly flat US power demand, low-to-mid-single digit load growth appears to have returned (even higher in some regions). Load growth and growing penetration of intermittent resources like solar and wind are an unhealthy mix—a point that does not appear to be lost on the giant technology companies. In our view, it may well be AI that proves to be our salvation when it comes to what we have called “a messy energy transition era.” The general freak-out by many Big Tech firms over how to source power while also meeting sustainability goals, we believe could lead to a healthier narrative around energy overall. Big Tech is going to need “all of the above” energy solutions that can meet growing power demand. Near-zero methane natural gas along with nuclear are going to be important components of our power generation mix along with rising renewables output.

In this electrifying episode, we delve into the heart of the energy sector where Arjun Murti unpacks critical industry insights. Justin and Arjun explore the art of storytelling amidst the digital era's information deluge, highlighting how clarity of message can cut through the noise. Arjun, from his position at Veriten, offers a front-row seat to the investment community's shifting mindsets and the burgeoning interest in energy. The duo dissects trends in mergers, acquisitions, IPOs, and the crucial role of small-scale companies in fuelling industry success. Beyond corporate maneuvers, they dig into the nitty-gritty of volatile oil prices, OPEC strategies, and the need for resilience amidst market upheavals. Arjun shares his perspective on cost of supply, calling for a forward-looking approach to creating profitable and sustainable ventures in oil, gas, and emergent energy technologies. The two also contemplate the industry's environmental responsibilities, dissecting the role of ESG in shaping future energy solutions. Intriguingly, they assess the feasibility of a profitable future for new energy sectors without relying on subsidies. LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/arjun-murti-energy-analyst/ Twitter: https://www.linkedin.com/company/veriten/ Show Sponsors InflowControl InflowControl is a tech firm specializing in enhancing oil production efficiency and minimizing environmental harm through their Autonomous Inflow Control Valve (AICV®). The technology boosts profitability in mature oil fields by filtering out undesired gas and water, allowing previously overlooked zones to contribute to production. This results in both higher profitability and Lower Carbon Oil for stakeholders. For more information, visit the links below: Website: www.inflowcontrol.no LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/inflowcontrol-as/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqdgIooQhYtUBo-auUlYw-Q Wicked Energy For more info on Wicked Energy, please visit www.wickedenergy.io. For the video version, please visit the Wicked Energy YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCL5PSzLBnSb7u1HD1xmLOJg If you or your company are interested in starting a podcast, visit https://www.wickedenergy.io/free-guide for a free guide on creating a successful podcast. Lastly, if you have any topics or guests you'd like to hear on the show, please email me at justin@wickedenergy.io or send me a message on LinkedIn.

Tisha Schuller welcomes Arjun Murti, partner at Veriten and author of the “Super Spiked” newsletter, to the Energy Thinks podcast.

We hope you all had a fantastic holiday season and that you are excited about the New Year! We had a special guest join us yesterday to kick off 2024. We have been lucky enough to get to know a number of Senators, Governors and Congressional Representatives over the past few years. One that we have been getting to know better recently is Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana. Sharp, informed, well read, very funny, and representing a very important energy and industrial state, Senator Kennedy never disappoints when any public policy matter is up for thoughtful debate. We felt particularly lucky he took some time to brainstorm the coming year with us in this Special Edition COBT. As you will hear, Mike Bradley, Jeff Tillery and I explored a broad range of topics with the Senator including domestic and international challenges facing the United States in 2024, the divide in Washington regarding climate issues, Senator Kennedy's stance on climate change, the role of the government and private sector, the erosion of public confidence in institutions, and potential strategies for restoring that confidence. We also touch on the importance of leadership and transparent communication, power demand growth and infrastructure challenges, and the need to improve the understanding of energy-related issues in Washington. Senator Kennedy shares his perspective on the significance of the United States projecting strength and power and his optimistic outlook on American resilience in overcoming challenges. We are very grateful to Senator Kennedy for sharing his time and valuable insights with us all. Speaking of kicking off the New Year, we attended the Goldman Sachs Energy, CleanTech and Utilities Conference in Miami this week (agenda linked here). Arjun Murti spoke on a panel addressing “Where Are We in the Commodities Cycle?” I am biased but I thought he did a great job discussing why energy is so important globally, why energy broadly is an attractive sector, and why oil and gas peak demand is nearly impossible to predict. Overall, we saw many friends old and new, and increasingly perceive that Veriten's mission of “truth in energy” is gaining more visibility and support. Special thanks to Neil Mehta and the entire Goldman Sachs research team for having us and congratulations to them on a great kickoff to the year. We will return next week with the regular COBT schedule. We have a very fun “2-year Veriten Anniversary” show planned! Again, Happy 2024 and thank you for your friendship and support!

Today we were thrilled to visit with Brian Lee, Vice President and Head of US Clean Technology Research at Goldman Sachs, for 2023's final COBT episode. Brian has been with the firm since 2011 and offers a unique vantage point with his experience covering cleantech. Recently, Brian and his team released their 2024 Americas Clean Technology Outlook (linked here). With 2023 coming to a close, it was fantastic to hear Brian's end of year reflections as well as observations on the space heading into 2024.   Goldman Sachs will kick off the New Year in Miami, Florida with their flagship Energy, CleanTech and Utilities Conference starting on January 3rd (agenda linked here). Veriten is excited to be attending. In our conversation with Brian, we discuss Goldman's approach to cleantech as part of the broader energy team, the cyclical nature of the sector, the gyrations of the last few years, the deeper appreciation investors are now gaining for the complexities of clean energy business models, the unique mix of stocks Brian and his team cover, the global investor footprint, current investor sentiment, and of course how rising interest ratees have greatly impacted his coverage group. Brian also shares his perspective on the total addressable market for solar including residential and utility-scale solar, residential solar market potential, policy impacts on solar, trends in solar energy, the latest IRA detailed guidance from the US Treasury, the outlook for more of such detail, and much more. With revised ratings out earlier this week, we also got Brian to share his specific stock views going into next year. Time flew as we were having fun! We ended with a “lightning round” and asked Brian to share his quick thoughts on China, the water space, and surging power demand growth to close out our conversation. It was a meaty and fantastic discussion. Thank you Brian!   Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting year-to-date performance for bonds, commodities and equities. He noted the 10-year U.S. government bond yield began the year trading at 3.9%, peaked at ~5.0%, and has round-tripped back down to 3.9%, mostly because the rate of inflation has been cut in half and expectations that the FED could aggressively begin cutting interest rates beginning in March 2024. WTI price began the year trading at ~$80/bbl, peaked at ~$94/bbl and is now trading at ~$74/bbl. U.S. oil production in 2023 has grown by ~1mmbpd which has been offset by OPEC cuts of ~1mmbpd. U.S. natural gas began the year trading at ~$4.50/MMBtu and is now trading at ~2.50/MMBtu, mostly due to warm early winter weather, above average natural gas storage levels, and U.S. natural gas production that has grown ~5bcfpd in 2023. He highlighted that broader equity markets posted a stellar year with the S&P 500 up ~25% and the Nasdaq up ~55%, while the energy sector posted just a modest gain for the year. The best performing subsectors in 2023 on a "total return" basis were Nuclear (+60%), Coal (+35%) & Refiners (+20%), with the worst being Renewables (-25%) & Batteries/Solar (-30%). He flagged reasons why the Illinois Commerce Commission "rejected" a multi-year integrated grid plan from two key State electric utilities and highlighted the $15B merger agreement between Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel, further noting that it seems to be facing early opposition from both members of Congress and Unions and could face challenges from CFIUS (foreign investment in the U.S.). Arjun Murti shared a few of his reflections from 2023 including the disparities in energy access worldwide and the massive amount of energy demand 7-8 billion people will need, the continuing significance of energy as a

Today we had the pleasure of hosting David Whitehouse, CEO of Offshore Energies UK (OEUK), for a comprehensive discussion on UK and North Sea energy. David joined OEUK in January of this year and previously held senior roles at CNR International UK and Shell, working on projects from deepwater frontier developments in the Gulf of Mexico to managing mature assets in the UK's North Sea. As you will hear, David is pursuing a Master of Engineering in Renewable Engineering to complement his Ph.D. in Chemistry. OEUK is the leading trade association for the UK's integrated offshore energy industry and their membership boasts over 400 organizations in offshore oil, gas, carbon capture and storage, wind, and hydrogen. We were thrilled to visit with David. In our conversation, David first shares background on OEUK's 50-year history, its member companies, and the types of support they offer. We discuss the dynamic energy landscape in the North Sea and Europe, the UK's energy status including climate goals, energy security, the cost of energy, and the public's increased awareness of the importance of producing energy domestically. David touches on the UK's economic challenges, the UK's energy production, challenges faced by the industry, including recent windfall taxes that have led to a pullback in investments by operators in the North Sea, the potential impact of expensive energy on the industrial base, and the crucial role of reliable and affordable energy in successful economies. We explore the growth of offshore wind production, plans for carbon capture and storage projects, and the importance of continued investment in oil and gas to support the transition. We also ask David for his views on societal acceptance of the oil and gas sector in the UK, Brexit's impact on energy, government involvement and policies, infrastructure challenges, electricity demand, and the future workforce. The slides from today's discussion are linked here. It was a thought-provoking and wide-ranging conversation and we greatly appreciate David for sharing his insights and time. Mike Bradley kicked us off by discussing that the upcoming week's equity market trading may be dominated by trading churn, lacking significant economic data and an end to Q3 earnings reporting. He flagged that commodity and energy equity traders are particularly focused on the November 30th OPEC meeting, especially after being delayed from last weekend. He noted that several issues will be topical at the OPEC meeting this week: first, OPEC members (Angola & Nigeria = 2.6mmbpd of combined production) have been considered the main reason for the pushback in the OPEC meeting as both members appear to be angling for higher individual production baselines in 2024. Second, it's consensus that Russia & Saudi will extend 1.3mmbpd of production cuts though Q1'24. Finally, there doesn't appear to be any real consensus that additional cuts will be forthcoming, much less production cuts of size, because it would only provide additional price cover for non-OPEC producers. He also highlighted that even though 2023 global demand growth was substantial, what was also substantial was 2023 global oil production growth of ~2.5mmbpd, which was much higher than expected due to the lack of Iranian sanction enforcement (~600-700kbpd), higher than expected U.S. production growth (1.2mmbpd vs early '23 consensus of 0.7mmbpd) and continued growth from non-OPEC countries (Brazil & Guyana). He wrapped by noting that crude oil prices in 2024 could prove much more volatile, and that OPEC's ability to effectively manage oil markets in 2024 could be much more challenged, given that global demand growth may be slowing, and non-OPEC production will still be growing. Arjun Murti added his thoughts on the IEA's recent comments that t

Today we were thrilled to be joined by Dr. Alexis Crow, Partner and Global Head of the Geopolitical Investing Practice at PwC. Alexis is a Council Member of the World Economic Forum, a Member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a Senior Fellow at Columbia Law School, and a Former Senior Fellow of the Atlantic Council. Her research is focused on financial stability, the future of trade and globalization, global energy markets, and investing in real assets, technology, and the future of the consumer. Alexis joined PwC in 2015 and her team helps companies and investors globally think about portfolio risk and portfolio strategy, investment data analytics and also frequently engages with boards as part of their practice. It was our pleasure to host Alexis and we learned a great deal on our global macroeconomics “magic carpet ride.”   In our discussion, Alexis shares background on her team and the main questions clients are facing across various industries. We discuss PwC's differentiation with their global macroeconomics expertise, how Alexis divides her time globally and domestically, and PwC's diverse client base in corporates, energy, media, private markets, and real estate. Alexis shares her perspective on the geopolitical landscape in the more complex world we face today in comparison to when she joined PwC in 2015, including the shifting dynamics between the US and China, the recurring concern of the direction of interest rates and the underlying sources of inflation, the interconnectedness of energy costs and inflation, the implications of the upcoming Presidential election, in particular for energy and immigration, and strategies for international expansion for smaller companies. We also discuss the challenging geopolitical landscape in the Middle East and Latin America and their respective complex dynamics, the US budget deficit and concerns about its impact, how other countries have successfully utilized productive debt for growth, the skills needed in energy companies for future economic growth, the implications of AI advancement over the next 20-30 years, and the emergence of new geopolitical standards. Alexis was gracious with her time and we ended with asking for her thoughts on governmental intervention in free markets over the next decade. We covered a great deal of territory and appreciate Alexis sharing her unique insights with us all.   Mike Bradley kicked us off by emphasizing the anticipation around tomorrow's FOMC meeting, with consensus suggesting the FED will temporarily pause interest rate hikes. He highlighted that WTI crude oil price has recently dropped in the last few weeks and is now trading below levels prior to the October 7th Hamas attack on Israel. He noted the market's seemingly unwarranted confidence in the stability of the Mideast and further highlighted a handful of key energy transition events over the past week that have set back transition expectations. He wrapped by noting that the Panamanian Government (an investor friendly business regime) recently caved into protestors' demands for a referendum on the recently approved Cobre Panama copper mine deal, and that this move highlights that governmental risks for the backbone of energy transition (mining) are real. Arjun Murti chimed in with his thoughts on the need for energy companies to consider global expansion with the maturation of the shale industry, the associated challenges faced by companies operating internationally, and the inherent difficulty of the energy business. He also discusses the role of European supermajors in meeting global energy demands and raises the question of how smaller domestic companies can successfully venture into international markets, with the challenges they may encounter without the resources and scale of larger corporations.   We greatly enjoyed our global discussion with Alexis today and hope you find it as interesting as we did. Tha

Today we had the pleasure of visiting with Chris Birdsall, Director of Economics and Energy at Exxon Mobil Corporation. Chris joined Exxon as an engineer in 1996 and has served in several areas of the organization including manufacturing, technology, and commercial roles over the past 27 years. For the last five years, Chris has lead a team of economists, modelers, and researchers responsible for the research and data that shapes Exxon Mobil's Global 2050 Outlook report (linked here). It was our pleasure to visit with Chris and learn more about his team, their views on long-term energy demand and supply, and have a chance to discuss all of the inputs and assumptions in an ambitious undertaking like this report.   Chris prepared select slides from Exxon's 2050 Outlook to guide our conversation (the presentation slides are linked here). Chris walks us through the presentation but we stopped frequently for Q&A. We discussed a range of topics including how hard it is to do forecasts like this and why increasingly more organizations are choosing to put out scenarios rather than true forecasts, how Exxon's long-term emissions outlook compares to outcomes in Paris-aligned or net-zero scenarios, the correlation between energy consumption and human development, population projections, what Chris describes as the “and” equation between balancing human development with emissions reduction efforts, global energy demand growth by sector, growth in renewables and natural gas generation, and Exxon's underlying predictions for EV growth. We also discuss how interest rates and federal policies are factored into Exxon's models, the significance of the next ten years in determining trends in meeting 2050 emissions goals, the sustained investment needed in oil and natural gas, and much more. It is always exciting to discuss and debate future energy outlooks and we want to thank Chris for sharing his insights and time with us today. We could have continued for another hour!   Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that global markets continue to alternate between hope and worry as to when/if Israel pursues a full-blown Gaza ground invasion and how much regional conflict/chaos that will drive. He discussed that U.S. equity markets continue to be mostly focused on the direction of 10-year bond yields, which surged above 5% recently but have since pulled back to roughly 4.85%. He also noted that bond traders are beginning to worry less about current economic stats and focus more on who'll be the buyers of U.S. bonds given the endless annual U.S. budget deficits (~$2 trillion in 2023). He flagged that WTI crude oil price has plunged $5/bbl. this week due to the Israeli invasion of Gaza being temporarily delayed. He also highlighted an abundance of Q3 energy earnings reports this week from oil services, natural gas levered E&Ps and U.S. oil majors. He wrapped by highlighting the combined market-caps of recent U.S. oil major mega-deals and that they far exceed the market-cap of the next closest E.U. oil major. Arjun Murti noted recent M&A activity appears to be based on priced decks that carry more upside potential than downside risk and reiterated the need for a balanced energy mix. He also highlighted the current favorable environment for M&A activity given current market conditions, relatively lower oil and gas CapEx and growing pains in the new energy sector.   Thanks to you all for your support and friendship!

In this episode of our Value Perspective ESG mini-series we're joined by Arvind Sanger, founder and Managing Director of a hedge fund that focuses on sensible energy transition. We share a mutual friend with Arvind in former guest Arjun Murti. We sat down with Arvind to discuss: what has changed in the energy and material markets in the thirty plus years of his career; how the uranium market works; uranium's demand and supply impact on the nuclear power sector; and finally nuclear's main challenges, based on another recent piece on the matter by another former past guest Robert Brice. Enjoy! NEW EPISODES: We release main series episodes every two weeks on Mondays. You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://tvpschroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and other podcast players. GET IN TOUCH: send us a tweet: @TheValueTeam  Important information. This podcast is for investment professionals only. This information is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider's consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data. Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Any references to securities, sectors, regions and/or countries are for illustrative purposes only. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change.

It was our honor today to welcome General David Petraeus (US Army Retired), Partner at KKR and Chairman of the KKR Global Institute. General Petraeus' distinguished military career spans over 37 years of service, marked by six consecutive commands as a general officer including leadership of the US-led coalitions in both Iraq during the surge and Afghanistan. Following his military service, General Petraeus served as Director of the CIA during a period of significant achievements in the global war on terror before joining KKR in 2013. In addition to his roles at KKR, General Petraeus serves as a board member, strategic advisor, and lecturer. He has earned numerous honors, awards, and decorations for his outstanding service to our country. General Petraeus has also recently co-authored a new book with British historian Andrew Roberts entitled “Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare from 1945 to Ukraine.” We are thrilled to have had the opportunity to visit with General Petraeus about the book, which is set to be officially published on October 17th. Our team read advanced copies and found it to be thoroughly insightful. As you will hear in today's episode, we covered a broad range of topics. General Petraeus first shares the inspiration behind his book and the critical role of strategic leadership in both military and business contexts. As the title suggests, “Conflict” explores the evolution of conflict and General Petraeus draws on his own experiences including his studies of Vietnam and his direct involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan. As you will hear, General Petraeus refers to a strategic leadership model developed for the Belfer Center at Harvard, which can be found linked here. We touch on the changes the Army made following Vietnam and the lessons learned there, the importance of leadership during key inflection points whether it's in the oil patch or in combat, and how to create a culture that offers what General Petraeus refers to as “reasonable feedback.” We also discuss KKR's investing strategies as well as the General's experience stepping out of the normal military path to attend graduate school and the insights he was able to apply back in the military. The General walks us through geopolitical dynamics with Saudi Arabia, China, Russia, and the US, how modern technology has transformed elements of the battlefield, and the outlook for the US military today. We greatly appreciated General Petraeus' thoughtful responses and are immensely grateful to him for sharing his time with us and for his service to our country. Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that 10-year bond yields have surged to 4.8% (a 16-year high) due to worries that the FOMC will be holding interest rates higher and for longer. He flagged WTI crude oil price seems to have temporarily settled in at roughly $90/bbl., and that traders will be closely monitoring the October 4th OPEC meeting and Cushing oil inventory levels. He wrapped by noting two seminal events that occurred early last week that could have a huge and lasting impact on global energy transition goals, including NextEra Energy Partners (NEP) stock price plunge and the IEA's updated Net Zero Roadmap report. Arjun Murti built on Mike's comments on recent corrections in the new energy sector by flagging the risk associated with organizations like GFANZ pushing financial institutions, capital markets, and insurance companies to make decisions based on emissions metrics, potentially leading to unfavorable loans and policies in the new energy sector and insufficient investment in traditional energy. We hope you all enjoy the discussion as much as we did and consider adding “Conflict” to your reading list. Our best to you all! 

For today's COBT, we had the pleasure of hosting Captain John Konrad, Founder and CEO of gCaptain and Author of "Fire on the Horizon." John is a highly experienced US Merchant Marine officer with a diverse background and has worked on container ships, oil tankers, and offshore supply vessels across the world. gCaptain is a leading global maritime and offshore industry news platform offering insights, information, and resources on shipping, offshore drilling, safety, technology, and more. We are struck by how important the relationship is between energy and shipping and John proved to be the perfect expert to help us explore shipping, energy, global trade, geopolitics, technologies, inflation, regulatory impact, and more.   John first shares his journey from an interest in sailing and computers to attending the Naval Academy (and then the Merchant Marine Academy) to becoming a captain, his experiences in the offshore oil industry, and the inspiration behind "Fire on the Horizon." We discuss the gCaptain platform and the importance of raising awareness about the shipping industry and its role in the global economy, key geopolitical challenges in shipping, the importance of ton-miles, shipping efficiency, and the shortage of shipyard capacity globally. John explains shipping's recent impact on inflation, the challenges of using alternative fuels, how the uncertainty of future regulations is impacting construction of new ships today, and how countries are preparing for new routes opening across the Arctic. We also cover the critical "choke points" around the world, the aging workforce in shipping, the need for increased attention from the US government, as well as the space's increasingly numerous and attractive investment opportunities. As you will see, the time flies as we go from one interesting angle to another. Shipping may be one of those industries you just think you understand, until you realize how much you are missing.   To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted key economic events over the next week and noted that Brent and WTI prices surpassed $92/bbl. and $89/bbl. respectively, due to concerns of a widening global crude oil supply deficit in Q4'23 of 3mmbpd. He pointed out that the last time the global crude oil supply deficit was this wide was Q3'21 and that the US SPR was over 600mm barrels and today it's 350mm barrels, which provides little price manipulation latitude this go around for the Biden Administration. He also noted the last time 12-month crude oil time spreads were this deep in backwardation was June 2022 when WTI price was trading over $110/bbl. He concluded by noting that energy equities have generally lagged behind the current surge in crude oil price mostly because equity investors want to see how crude oil price trades when Saudi eventually begins pushing crude oil barrels back into the market. Arjun Murti mentioned a recent opinion piece predicting peak fossil fuel demand this decade (by Fatih Birol in the Financial Times) and highlighted the math of global energy needs for long-term demand, the need to depoliticize energy discussions, and the importance of a healthy North American oil and gas sector.   We greatly appreciate John's thorough tour of the complex and multifaceted world of shipping. John is not only incredibly knowledgeable, but the experience of talking with him was a reminder that sometimes the best way to understand energy better is to go to an adjacent industry and look back with a different vantage point on all these questions the world has on energy, the environment, and national security. Simply put, the discussion with John was outstanding!   We certainly hope you enjoy. Our best to you all!

Today we were thrilled to welcome back Gabe Collins, Fellow in Energy & Environmental Regulatory Affairs, along with his colleague Steven Miles, Fellow in Global Natural Gas, with Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy. Gabe last joined us on COBT in May of 2022 (episode linked here) and has a fascinating background in the economics, policies, and geopolitics of Russia and China, as well as national security-related research and analysis. In addition to his position at the Baker Institute, Steven is a Senior Counsel at Baker Botts and previously was a twenty-year Partner with the firm, serving as the Energy Sector Chair focused on LNG, natural gas, electric power, and renewable energy industries. It was our pleasure to visit with Gabe and Steven for a global energy conversation focused on LNG and Europe. The focus was on one key question: “why isn't Europe locking in more long-term gas supply?”   The catalyst to our discussion stems from a report co-authored by Gabe and Steven that will be published in the near future. Titled “Eastern Promises or Energy Fantasies: Why Is Europe Not Replacing Russian Pipeline Gas With Long-Term LNG Contracts?”, the report leverages analysis from 600+ LNG contracts over 25 years leading up to the Ukraine invasion. In our discussion with Gabe and Steven, we cover key themes including the inspiration behind writing the paper, the potential role and intentions of China, Europe's response to its gas shortage and its reliance on spot LNG, potential geopolitical risks, and the potential explanations for Europe's reluctance to sign long-term gas contracts. We also discuss the concept of funding post-war Ukraine through gas surcharges, Mexico's growing LNG capacity, how Europe's decision not to contract LNG longer-term could be hurting the developing world and the climate, and the discrepancy between European policymakers' optimistic view of hydrogen and renewable energy with the unease among industrial players who see the ongoing demand for gas and the challenges in transitioning away from it. Gabe and Steven also recently wrote an article in Foreign Policy that touches on many of these aspects, linked here.   Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting upcoming events and topics of interest. Economically, all attention is on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's Jackson Hole speech this Friday for color/clarity on how much higher/how much longer interest rates could stay elevated. In commodities, crude oil remains steady around $80/bbl., with traders seemingly divided on which dynamic will win this year, that being supply (OPEC cuts) or demand (China weakness). He also noted that LNG markets will be closely following this week's current Australian LNG labor negotiations to handicap the potential for an LNG strike in the coming weeks, which could impact up to 10% of global LNG. From a broader equity market standpoint, equity traders will be intensely focused on NVIDIAs earnings and rounded out the conversation by flagging recent midstream deals with one of the key themes being “controlling the molecules” from wellhead to end user/markets. He also highlighted a Permian E&P merger this week between two mid-cap E&Ps, which is leading investors to contemplate whether an acceleration of public-to-public deals could be forthcoming, and whether they'll be done at premiums. Arjun Murti highlighted the spillover effects of how policies from the EU will have ramifications for the rest of the world, comparing key themes from Gabe and Steven's report to recent Super-Spiked themes. Todd Scruggs chimed in to share LNG trends including the short-term extremely tight supply-demand balance in Europe and longer-term potential for the US to become

In this episode of our Meet the Manager series, Arjun Murti returns to the Value Perspective podcast to interview fund manager Andrew Lyddon. Arjun is a partner at Veriten, a knowledge and media platform with a focus on energy, technology and environmental trends, a director on the board of ConocoPhillips, a senior adviser to the Energy Group at Warburg Pincus, and an advisory board member at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy. He is also author of one of our favourite Substacks Super-Spiked. Andrew Lyddon was one of the co-founders of the Value Team at Schroders back in 2013. He started his investment career at Schroders in 2005 and was previously part of a pan-European research team focused on the telecoms, construction and support services sectors. On top of the CFA, Andrew has degrees in intellectual property law and chemistry. Arjun and Andrew discuss the debate between value and growth dynamics and what it really means to be a value investor; an argument for growth using recent examples of growth companies, that could have been value had one been able to accept their growth potential; energy and the pros and cons of the sector; and finally Arjun takes the devil's advocate stance on energy, around the position of oil majors in Europe, the war in Ukraine and the challenges of ESG in the context of investing. Enjoy! NEW EPISODES: We release main series episodes every two weeks on Mondays. You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://tvpschroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and other podcast players. GET IN TOUCH: send us a tweet: @TheValueTeam  Important information. This podcast is for investment professionals only. This information is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider's consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data. Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Any references to securities, sectors, regions and/or countries are for illustrative purposes only. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change.

Today we had the very exciting and highly interesting opportunity to visit with Dr. Hongcen Wei, Commodities Strategist in Global Investment Research at Goldman Sachs. Hongcen joined Goldman two plus years ago from the University of Chicago where he taught math for many years and completed his PhD in Economics. Hongcen and his team have led the effort in re-launching Goldman's global macro coal research coverage. We have long been interested in hosting a show focused on coal and were thrilled to connect with Hongcen to discuss his team's research, global coal markets, coal consumption and related trends all around the world, and coal's huge impact on the energy transition. In our conversation, Hongcen first shares details about his background and personal interest in coal and commodities in particular as the “in-between” of economics and finance. Hongcen then provides context for Goldman's decision to re-launch coverage including coal's role in the energy transition discussion, global coal demand and the obvious implications for natural gas use, and the revival of the coal market in the midst of an energy crisis. We discussed the global coal export/import market (about 1 billion of the 8 billion tons consumed annually) and its unique dynamics and major players, coal grade variations and the implications for emissions and power plant efficiency, and coal price volatility (especially in recent years). Hongcen walked us through a mini presentation outlining Goldman's three main coverage themes: “reroute, rebalance, and revival” (slides linked here). We also discuss the data challenges of forecasting coal prices, the potential risks including shifts in domestic prices, changes in export dynamics and long-term climate policy concerns, the trajectory of coal demand with China's significant influence over the next decade, and more. Hongcen was more than patient with our plethora of questions and we greatly enjoyed the discussion. We have been remiss in not talking more about coal on COBT so we were elated to have this important discussion. Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that this was a light economic calendar week with traders mostly focused on July retail sales, which printed a little hotter than expected and are keeping bonds yields elevated, pressuring the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer. Shifting to commodities, he flagged that crude oil prices have been under pressure this week due to weaker than expected economic stats out of China which looks to be temporarily reversing 2H'23 global oil “supply” deficit concerns back to near-term “demand” concerns. He also discussed the spike in European natural prices (+30%) over concerns of a possible Australian LNG worker strike in coming weeks which could affect 10% of global LNG exports. From an equity market standpoint, he highlighted that most of the S&P 500 companies have already reported Q2 results, and that this week would be dominated by large box retailers, which would provide a look at the health of US consumers. He rounded out the conversation by highlighting the huge relative performance disparity between global coal prices and a basket of US coal equities over the last two years. Arjun Murti prepared us for the discussion with Hongcen with a historical view of coal's supply and demand dynamics, drawing parallels between coal and the oil and gas sectors and highlighting lessons oil and gas companies can learn from coal. Thanks again to Hongcen for joining us today and our best to you all!

Today we were delighted to host Bob Maguire, Managing Director and Co-Head of Carlyle International Energy Partners, along with Parminder Singh, Managing Director of International Energy, with The Carlyle Group at our office in Houston for a broad discussion on international energy investments. Bob is a seasoned international investor and has participated in global energy markets since 1986. Par brings prior experience in industrial sector investments and joined the Carlyle team in 2008. The Carlyle International Energy Group Fund is comprised of two funds which total approximately $5 billion of capital dedicated exclusively to international E&P. As we all ask ourselves where the world's oil growth is going to come from, we were thrilled to visit with these two experts from the international arena.   Bob and Par first share their insights on Carlyle's recent Neptune Energy deal (press release linked here) including background on the deal, motivations behind the sale, and the changing landscape of international energy investments. We discuss the potential for strategic buyers to enter the market, the importance of having a solid understanding of the markets and regions in which you invest, the advantages of having international experience and networks, and the value of operational expertise in maximizing investment returns. Bob and Par highlight how Carlyle's approach to asset selection and team collaboration has shaped their success. We discuss the changing nature of oil and gas markets with a shift towards international opportunities and increased interest from European players, the importance of having a well-rounded and diverse portfolio to mitigate risk, and the influence of inflation in services. We also cover traditional acquisition and exploitation strategies in the energy sector, how private equity approaches can be very appealing, the potential for value creation through reducing carbon intensity, the concept of responsible ownership, European energy policy, the changing landscape of energy financing, international onshore opportunities, and more. We ended with asking Bob for his vision of the future energy landscape in ten years. It was our total pleasure to visit with Bob and Par and we want to thank them for stopping by.   Mike Bradley kicked us off with his insights on current market conditions, highlighting shifts in market sentiment from a demand problem to supply constraints. He mentions the impact of Chinese data on crude oil prices and flags upcoming CPI & PPI data releases. Mike also notes changes in the market's behavior and highlights trends in crude oil pricing, production, and refining activity. Arjun Murti prepared us for the discussion with Bob and Par by highlighting the historical context of international energy investments and how it has evolved over the years, including a shift from a focus on US shale to increased interest in international opportunities and the challenges and opportunities associated with international investments.   We hope you enjoy the conversation with Bob and Par as much as we did. Our best to you all!

It was our honor today to welcome Harold Hamm, Executive Chairman and Founder of Continental Resources, on the date of the official debut of his new book entitled "Game Changer: Our Fifty-Year Mission to Secure America's Energy Independence." Harold is an acclaimed and veteran wildcatter, an American Patriot, an advisor to four Presidents on American energy policy, a visionary entrepreneur, and a loyal Oklahoman. He has made sizable contributions to the industry while also leading nonprofit efforts in health, education, and energy industry advocacy. "Game Changer" sheds light on the energy industry's history, challenges, and potential solutions for securing America's energy independence and prosperity. We were incredibly thankful to have the good fortune of visiting with Harold on this exciting day – the official release date for "Game Changer." His is a uniquely American story, as it takes us from his time as a five-year-old boy who lived in rural Oklahoma without power to being Executive Chairman of one of America's leading oil and gas companies. This book is a reminder of what can only happen in America.   As you will hear in today's episode, we covered a broad range of topics. Harold first shares his inspiration for writing the book and how his childhood sparked his interest in the oil industry. We touch on his experiences in the 1970s and the energy policies and challenges faced by the US in that decade, the importance of adopting effective and balanced energy programs in Washington, and the changing attitudes of environmentalists towards using oil from certain regions along with the need for education to address misunderstandings about energy sources. Harold shares his insights on going public and then back to private with Continental and the benefits of being a private company, including longer-term planning and reduced pressure from quarterly reports. We also cover the significance of natural gas in reducing emissions, the challenge and necessity of lifting the ban on the export of American oil, Continental's progress in carbon capture technology, building a company culture that is fun and focused, what it means to run on "Hamm-time," and more.   Apart from his contributions to the energy sector, Harold's philanthropic pursuits are equally significant, and we discuss his efforts to bring down the cost of insulin and prescription drugs. In his support for education, the Harold Hamm Foundation, together with Continental Resources, established the Hamm Institute for American Energy at Oklahoma State University, serving as the nation's premier institute for security, innovation and growth for all forms of energy. We are struck by Harold's ability to tackle challenging or impossible missions (what you'll hear as the "culture of the possible") and turn them into successes. We are immensely grateful for the time he shared with us today.   Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that this week would be a very heavy week of earnings, with roughly 35% of the S&P 500 companies reporting, and to expect some trading volatility. He also flagged that this week was a light week for economic stats and that the bond market has temporarily bought into a US soft landing scenario, which has pushed the 10-year yield above 4 percent. Also, with Harold Hamm being today's guest and a key proponent of an alternative to the WTI crude oil contract, we highlight the American Gulf Coast crude oil contract that he has advocated, which is trading at ~$82.50/bbl. and ~$1.25/bbl. premium to WTI. Mike rounded out the discussion by noting this also would be a heavy reporting week for the energy sector, particularly US & Canadian E&Ps, Midstream and Refiners. Arjun Murti built on Mike's comments with two key themes that oil demand has not peaked and is still growing, especially with global demand growth from countries like India and continents like Africa, and that desp

Our Summer Playlist rolls on this week with Arjun Murti. Arjun is the Former Head of Equity Research on the Energy Sector at Goldman Sachs, a Partner at Veriten, and the publisher of “Super-Spiked” on Substack. SmarterMarkets™ host David Greely catches up with Arjun midway through the year to get his thoughts on where we are in the energy super vol cycle.

North America holds enough oil and gas reserves to provide cheap, clean, and reliable energy to the rest of the globe for many decades – so why isn't it? Energy analyst Arjun Murti breaks down the key factors at play: capital investors who are wary of uncertain regulatory environments, countries like China and India that won't give up on coal, and a little-known group called the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (which is actually implementing all the terrible ideas that groups like World Economic Forum only talk about). Arjun explains how America – through a new Marshall Plan of government and private sector initiatives – can overcome these roadblocks to become the leader in global energy. Arjun Murti has spent over 30 years as a global energy markets analyst with firms like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. Read his Super-Spiked substack at https://arjunmurti.substack.com/ and follow him on Twitter at @ArjunNMurti

Arjun Murti has been tracking global energy markets for three decades, including a stint as co-director of Americas equity research at Goldman Sachs. In this episode, Murti, who writes the Super-Spiked column on Substack, talks about rising global energy demand, the reasons for declining investment in the oil sector, “peak China,” gasoline as an “absolute miracle,” the exploitation of Africa's mineral wealth, and why “oil demand will be the last thing to go away.” (Recorded July 3, 2023.)    

We are very pleased today to be sending you a special 4th of July COBT. For our Canadian friends, we hope you had a fantastic Canada Day this past Saturday. For all of you celebrating the 4th today, we hope the baseball, hot dogs and apple pie are all flowing! With some grilling of course!   For today's special show, we were delighted to host our dear friend Rob West. Rob is the fascinating Founder and Lead Analyst at Thunder Said Energy. His background includes research at Redburn and Stanford C. Bernstein before he struck out on his own in 2019 to start Thunder Said. He has some of the most unique impressions, observations, and analysis on the changing energy world and we were delighted to have him. What we can also add is that we had the great honor of visiting with him live in Estonia on Sunday as part of the lead-in to today's discussion. Getting to know Rob has been and continues to be great fun.   Today's crew included Mike Bradley and Arjun Murti. With this being a critical half-year mark, Mike took some time in the lead-in to review market and energy sector statistics, changes in oil and natural gas rig counts, OPEC's plans for cuts in production, and the significant market cap of tech giants compared to energy. Arjun chimed in and told his family's remarkable story of coming to America and living the American dream. The story resonates as loud as ever on a day like today. Arjun also reminded us all of how "the energy transition needs to transition" to being one focused on the many billions of people outside of America, the US and Canada seeking the freedom and prosperity that comes from available reliable energy. Overall, Mike and Arjun really got us going as we turned to Rob.   The discussion with Rob today centered around a handful of key topics. First, his continued concern that we need to achieve energy surplus if we are ever going to achieve real decarbonization. His fear now, like ours, is that we are not only not heading towards energy surplus but we are instead headed for more energy shortages. Second, we discuss his latest thinking around AI and how it might be the answer to many of the world's supply chain and logistical and even technological problems. AI is clearly the new new thing and it was really fun kicking it around with Rob. As a third big topic, Rob has more than a few thoughts about his adopted country Estonia, including the latest from its neighbor Russia. He tells the gripping story of how the recent events with Wagner were perceived in Estonia, and reminds us all how Estonia resisted EU efforts to get the country to switch to Russian natural gas back in the day. As we wrapped up, and as part of our 4th of July and overall "freedom and independence" theme, we reference a paper Rob penned on how energy (oil) supply determined the fate of so much of World War Two (available here). On this day when we pause to say thank you for our freedom, reflecting on the role of energy in national security seemed super appropriate. Rob's article on the war and oil's role is fantastic.   As you might recall, Rob has joined us on COBT before. The first time on January 4, 2022 (episode linked here) and more recently on November 20, 2022 (episode linked here). We don't expect you to go back and listen/watch those, but some of you are becoming COBT history buffs so we at least want to give you that chance!   The first half of the year has been both eventful and stimulating. We count 32 COBT segments, 26 Super-Spiked pieces from Arjun, 8 Gener8 podcasts with Brett and Jeff, and 25 Market Wraps from Mike. Every week we feel like we get a little bit

Greetings & welcome back to the rose bros podcast.This episode we are joined by Mr. Arjun Murti - board member at ConocoPhillips,  Partner at Veriten LLC,  and a Senior Advisor at Warburg Pincus. Mr. Murti previously served as a Partner at Goldman Sachs from 2006 to 2014. Prior to becoming Partner, he served as Managing Director from 2003 to 2006 and as Vice President from 1999 to 2003.During his time at Goldman Sachs, Mr. Murti worked as a sell-side equity research analyst covering the energy sector. He was co-director of equity research for the Americas from 2011 to 2014. Previously, Mr. Murti held equity analyst positions at JP Morgan Investment Management from 1995 to 1999 and at Petrie Parkman from 1992 to 1995. Mr. Murti serves on the advisory board of ClearPath, Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy and as a trustee of Kent Place School.Mr. Murti also publishes “Super-Spiked” on Substack, a newsletter that takes aim at a messy energy transition era and the clash of energy commodity & equity markets with energy & climate policy, ESG initiatives, and geopolitics.Mr. Murti also holds B.S., B.A. – Finance from the University of Denver.Among other things, we sat down and discussed Lessons from 15 years at Goldman Sachs, top quartile returns & why there is opportunity in Canadian energy.Enjoy!This podcast episode is sponsored by Connate Water Solutions.Do you need cost effective water sourcing options to supply your next drilling or completions program?Connate Water Solutions is a specialized hydrogeology company focused on water well drilling, testing and water management services in Western Canada and Texas.Contact info@connatewater.com or www.connatewater.com for more details.This podcast is sponsored by Eco-Flex Recycled Rubber Solutions. Eco-Flex has been providing  the oil and gas industry with matting and safety walkways for 30 years, with mats that are a resilient, flexible, and an eco-friendly option for your toughest site conditions. With shock absorption, insulation, and easy maintenance, Eco-Flex mats are the perfect choice for any job. Checkout eco-flex.com for more details. This episode is brought to you by Canada Action - whose aim is to promote the science and positivity about Canadian oil and natural gas. The world absolutely needs more Canadian energy - join the conversation at canadaaction.ca or on social media.Support the show

BIO: Arjun Murti has over 30 years of experience as an equity research analyst, senior advisor, and board member, with global expertise covering traditional oil & gas and new energy technologies.STORY: Arjun made a call that oil prices would quintuple from $20 a barrel in the 90s to $105 in the 2000s and stay there for at least five years. The price averaged $100 a barrel from 2000 to 2014, entirely consistent with Arjun's call. However, after the 2008 financial crisis, the return on capital in the energy sector started falling. Arjun made excuses and continued to ride the wave all the way down.LEARNING: Let go of your ego and get out of the battle at some point. Frameworks need to grow, evolve and adjust to circumstances. Understand and inculcate reversion to the mean into your thinking. “At some point, you got to get out of your own ego and get out of the battle.”Arjun Murti Guest profileArjun Murti has over 30 years of experience as an equity research analyst, senior advisor, and board member, with global experience covering traditional oil & gas and new energy technologies.The bulk of his Wall Street career was at Goldman Sachs, where he retired as a partner in 2014. He recently “un-retired” to join Veriten, an energy research, strategy, and investing firm. Arjun publishes Super-Spiked, a Substack blog focused on the messy energy transition era.He is on the board of ConocoPhillips, a senior advisor at Warburg Pincus, and on the advisory boards for ClearPath and the Center on Global Energy Policy.Worst investment everAt the height of his career, Arjun made a call that oil was going to go from the $15 to $20 a barrel range it had been in from the mid-80s. He said the price would rise to between $50 to $105 in the 2000s and stay there for at least five years. And with that, the returns on capital and profitability in energy as a sector would do very well. Arjun called this the super spike.In 2002, the market started becoming bullish, and oil went from the 20-dollar range everyone thought the sector would be at forever to ultimately as high as $147 in 2008. The price averaged $100 a barrel from 2000 to 2014, entirely consistent with the high end of the range of Arjun's original call. He was pretty excited about the sector's profitability and experienced an ego boost after being proven right for five years.However, the returns on capital started rolling over, and Arjun made excuses for it. From 2006 to 2008, oil went from $65 to $100 a barrel, but returns on capital for the sector fell from 22% to 19%. 19% is still an excellent number, and that's the excuse Arjun used to continue riding the call. The sector then got interrupted by the great financial crisis of 2008, which Arjun never viewed as an energy event. The industry rebounded dramatically off those 2008 and 2009 lows, but the returns on capital had now fallen to 16%. Arjun kept making excuses as the returns continued to fall and never got off. Making excuses for his framework the entire way down became his worst investment mistake ever.Lessons learnedAt some point, you've to get let go of your ego and get out of the battle.Frameworks need to grow, evolve and adjust to circumstances.Andrew's takeawaysUnderstand and inculcate reversion to the mean into your thinking.Understand what the average is. Ride the wave but remember the...

For today's COBT, we had the pleasure of hosting our good friend and award-winning columnist Liam Denning. Liam is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering the energy sector and was previously with the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times. He has nearly twenty years of experience covering energy and has experience in energy investment banking and consulting. We were thrilled to connect with Liam to discuss his recent article, “Hiding an Army at the Top of the World.” The article touches on several timely and important factors including military forces, geopolitics, the climate, the potential for greater access to Arctic trade routes, and oil and gas as well as broader resources development in the region. Liam first provides background on how he got involved with the Army and the interesting connection he formed with a war photographer interested in the Arctic. For the story, the two partnered to provide on-the-ground reporting on the Army's activities in Alaska. We discuss the increasing accessibility of the Arctic due to warming and the related geopolitical implications, Liam's experience visiting the US Army's Northern Warfare Training Center in Alaska, and the challenges of operating in the harsh Arctic environment. We also cover the recent debates around oil and gas development in Alaska in light of Russia's aggressive plans in the Arctic, the Chinese perspective and the involvement of other countries in the Arctic including Norway, Finland, and Canada. Liam shares his perspective on the changes he's witnessed in the oil and gas industry over the past fifteen years and the importance of adapting to maintain relevance and his view on the role of major oil companies in the energy transition. It was a fascinating conversation and we want to thank Liam for joining us. To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted that May CPI printed slightly below consensus while core CPI printed slightly above consensus. He noted traders will be focused on the Wednesday morning PPI print and afternoon FOMC Rate Decision, where odds favor the FED temporarily pausing rate hikes. He then flagged that Saudi's announcement last week of a 1mmbpd crude oil production cut (set for July) has not been enough to stabilize crude oil. He noted several crosscurrents that are influencing this crude oil volatility, all of which are challenging whether this current weakness is physical or financial related. He wrapped by noting Shell's Capital Markets Day on Wednesday will be a focus for investors as the first formal opportunity for Shell's new management to lay out their end of decade vision, which could provide a roadmap to narrowing the 2-3 multiple point valuation discount to the US oil majors. Arjun Murti built on some of Mike's themes and highlighted the difference in energy perspectives between the UK, Europe, the US, and the rest of the world. He also teed up the discussion of the role of the oil and gas industry outside of its core, prepping us for our discussion with Liam. We are eager to see what Liam writes next and hope you find this topic as interesting as we do. Thanks to you all!

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Takajiro Ishikawa in our office in Houston for a sweeping discussion of the technologies and broad topics influencing the future of energy. Tak is the President and CEO of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries America (MHIA). MHIA has 10,000 employees in the US spread over 66 locations and accounts for 20% of MHI's global business. Tak is a seasoned executive with over thirty years of experience in the industry in both Tokyo and Houston, and since April 2022 has been leading MHIA's efforts to deliver innovative and integrated solutions to the world. We were thrilled to visit with Tak.   In our conversation, Tak first provided fascinating background on the history of MHI and its formation 150 years ago to lead Japan's industrial revolution. MHI's formation has everything to do with Japan's energy, industrial and supply chain security, something that every country is increasingly concerned about today. We split our time with Tak talking about MHI and Japan as a whole. It was fascinating.   As you will hear, Japan is by far the largest importer of LNG globally, and MHI was responsible for delivering a large portion of the LNG ships and shipyards in Japan. We touch on the intricacies of Japan's location and the geological attributes, the limited options they have for solar and wind power, as well as the sensitivities around nuclear power in the country. Tak shares his perspective on how MHI is structurally organized, given their massive footprint, and how the company is pivoting from working on technologies that emit carbon to helping those same technologies reduce carbon emissions. We touch on the differences between the US and Japan in terms of deploying renewables at scale and MHIA's hydrogen projects in Utah. We also cover Japan's partnerships with other countries and technologies, the IRA's global impact, Japan's declining population, and much more. We ended with Tak's long-term vision for MHIA. Overall, it was a riveting discussion and we greatly appreciate Tak's enthusiasm for the industry and the future.   Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that bond, commodity, and equity markets have been directionless due to the current U.S. debt ceiling talks and will likely continue this pattern until an agreement is reached. He also highlighted two upstream deals this week (one all cash and one all stock) and last week's large midstream deal. He highlighted these deals to drive home the point that energy consolidation will continue to be robust (especially upstream consolidation) because a key investor concern, especially as it relates to the sustainability of significant return of/on capital programs beyond the next 2-3 years, are quality and quantity of future inventory. Arjun Murti prepped us for our discussion with Tak with an overview of Japan's energy landscape and unique approach to secure a diversity of energy commodities, further driving the idea that no one model fits all.   We want to thank Tak for sharing his time and perspective with us today. Our best to you all!

In this insightful episode of Wicked Energy with JG, host Justin sits down with Arjun Murti, Partner at Veriten, to explore various aspects of the energy industry. They delve into Arjun's journey from a high-pressure career at Goldman Sachs to finding work-life balance at other organizations that ultimately led to landing at Veriten, a Houston-based energy research, strategy, and investing firm. The discussion highlights the importance of strong balance sheets for energy companies, especially in the face of reduced capital availability for traditional energy sources like oil and gas. Arjun shares insights on the need for oil and gas companies to consider having zero net debt to minimize dependence on external markets or banks, and the importance of capital discipline and reinvestment in the industry. They examine the challenges faced by European oil companies and the potential shift back toward traditional energy production. Focusing on the future of the energy sector, the conversation covers the U.S. shale industry, natural gas, and the need for companies to diversify and explore alternative sources. They also discuss the growth potential of the natural gas industry, the role of U.S. and Canadian LNG exports in providing cleaner energy to countries in need, and the significance of addressing energy poverty in Africa by utilizing local resources and encouraging investment. Lastly, Arjun talks about his involvement in 'The Cob Tuesday' podcast and his work on LinkedIn, Twitter, and Substack, where he shares free content to promote energy education. If you are interested in learning more or connecting, see the links below: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/arjun-murti-energy-analyst/ Substack: https://arjunmurti.substack.com/ Website: https://veriten.com/ Wicked Energy For more info on Wicked Energy, please visit www.wickedenergy.io. For the video version, please visit the Wicked Energy YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCL5PSzLBnSb7u1HD1xmLOJg If you or your company are interested in starting a podcast, visit https://www.wickedenergy.io/free-guide for a free guide on creating a successful podcast. Lastly, if you have any topics or guests you'd like to hear on the show, please email me at justin@wickedenergy.io or send me a message on LinkedIn.

Arjun Murti is a Partner at Veriten, a knowledge and media platform with a focus on energy, technology and environmental trends.  In this episode we discuss trends in the energy sector, transition, ESG and the "Super Vol" macro environment.For additional episodes of the Canadian Equities podcast connect with us at acumencapital.com/podcast.  

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Saul Kavonic, Head of Integrated Energy, Resources and Carbon Research at Credit Suisse Australia. Saul is very well-regarded in the Australian and Asian energy community and joined us from Melbourne (on his Wednesday morning!). He was formerly the Head of Oil, Gas, LNG and Energy at Wood McKenzie and is a chemical engineer by training. We had an excellent and sweeping discussion with Saul and it was fascinating to hear his perspective from Down Under.   Saul first provides context on today's Australian energy scene, the country's geopolitical relationships with other Asian countries including Japan, and the influence the current (and relatively new) government is exerting on energy investment. Australia greatly impacts Japan's LNG supply and has a unique vantage point of being interdependent with Asia but aligned culturally and from a security standpoint with the West. We discuss long-term contracts and issues around them, supply chain in "old" and "new" energy both, investor attitudes, and the types of companies Saul focuses on in his research. Saul shared he enjoys meeting energy executives and investors throughout the region and frequently asks them "where would you put $100 in the energy and energy transition space?" He provides a number of interesting potential answers. We also mention the potential for resource-driven conflict in an increasingly tense world and hear the sentiment from the region. We ended with a quick around the horn summary of where Saul, Arjun and Mike would invest their $100. Their answers were interesting!   Mike Bradley kicked us off with a market update and reported that markets have been relatively quiet for the past 4-5 days with bonds and commodities trading sideways. He flagged earnings beginning this week for oil service companies and that he expects the focus to be on pricing trends. Mike also noted copper prices are not at all-time highs, although there has been consolidation, and that LME stock levels are 50-55% lower than last year and 65-70% lower than the 5, 7, or 10-year averages. He wrapped by suggesting oil and copper prices could increase significantly if there is no recession this year. Arjun Murti also joined today's session and shared his takeaways from last week's CGEP events in New York, observing refreshing realism and pragmatism from policy makers including a recognition that Europe's gas crisis is nowhere close to being over. Arjun also voiced his concern about optimism in Europe that a range of new technologies will ramp quickly and how that can feed a reluctance to fully embrace proven, reliable resources such as natural gas. He wrapped by flagging that coal consumption was likely to grow for the foreseeable future now that it is almost exclusively a developing market fuel source.   We greatly enjoyed our conversation with Saul and thank him for sharing his morning with us for the first SOBW - "Start Of Business Wednesday."   G'day mates! Our best to you all!

This past year has reminded all of us that the energy transition, energy markets, and geopolitics are inextricably linked. In the last five years alone, extreme volatility in energy prices has created uncertainty for consumers and producers alike.  For Wall Street in particular, an uncertain energy outlook brings up important questions about risk and strategy. Aligning energy investment with expected demand is hard, especially in the midst of an energy transition that's happening in fits and starts. Yet, effective investment is vital for both energy access and climate progress. How should investors address the tension between energy and climate needs? What do the coming years hold for oil and gas markets? And is the term “energy transition” even the right one?  This week host Jason Bordoff talks with Arjun Murti about how Wall Street views the energy transition and how the turbulence has wracked energy markets over the past several years. Arjun shares the lessons he's learned in his years as an energy markets analyst, and how his experiences inform his view of the path ahead.  Arjun has spent more than 30 years analyzing the global energy sector on Wall Street. He spent 15 years as a partner at Goldman Sachs and recently served as senior advisor and now partner for Veriten. Has also had stints as director at ConocoPhillips and as senior advisor for Warburg Pincus. Arjun is also on the Center on Global Energy Policy's advisory board.

This episode's guest is Arjun Murti, the host of the Super Spiked podcast and partner at Veriten. Arjun spent the first 15 years of his career at Goldman Sachs and worked his way to becoming a Partner. Then he decided to take time off to pursue his personal interests and spend time with his family. Arjun recently got back into the game joining the team over at Veriten, and he has also been putting out some very high quality energy content with his podcast and YouTube videos. This episode we discuss what is really happening with the energy transition, how coal is still on the rise, and how the rumors of oil and gas peak demand have been exaggerated. We talk about how energy equities remain out of favor and how volatility in prices is becoming the new normal.  Lastly, we dive into the issues with moralizing energy usage, how the government is trying to pick the winners and where Arjun sees it all heading from here. Hope you enjoy the show!Arjun's Twitter: https://twitter.com/ArjunNMurti Twitter: https://twitter.com/max_gagliardiTwitter: https://twitter.com/Always_Buildingtiktok: https://www.tiktok.com/@max.gagliardiYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@max_gagliardi

Today we were delighted to host Jarand Rystad, CEO of Rystad Energy. Jarand founded Rystad Energy in 2004 following a long tenure with McKinsey & Company to build an independent research and consulting company rooted in granular data. Rystad Energy tracks all energy sources, from production to consumption, to provide detailed analysis. We had a wonderful visit!   Our discussion explored a range of topics starting with Jarand's background and inspiration for creating Rystad Energy, the company's growth in scale and depth of analysis, the data and analytics the company tracks, Jarand's day-to-day involvement, and the importance of adding energy transition supply chain capacity in the US and Europe. We also touch on the concept of energy transition vs. diversification, Jarand's view on how new technologies and the free market will outcompete oil and gas, the role of nuclear, future supply and demand for electrification, Rystad Energy's data on new energy materials, and more. We ended with Jarand's view for the energy world ten years from now and walked away with a great appreciation for the work Jarand and Rystad Energy are doing.   To kick off the show, Mike Bradley presented a market update from the past week, including a closer look at the historic three-day decline (100bps) in 2yr US Government bond yields and why that's changing the Federal Reserve's previous hiking campaign of higher, faster, and longer to one that most market participants believe will be shifting to lower, slower, and shorter. He noted that the recent Silicon Valley Bank seizure had enormous implications for venture capital funding and that it would likely lead to less, higher cost and more stringent funding for Tech and New Energy startups. He wrapped up by reviewing recent events, including ConocoPhillips' Alaskan Willow project approval, Aramco's large boost in future capex spending, and a handful of key themes coming out of last week's CERA Conference. Arjun Murti chimed in and emphasized the importance of understanding risk and finance controls within a company and what are inherently less sexy aspects of running an organization. He also flagged that all companies should be considering how international climate policy and regulations might impact them, even if those policies seem distant in location or time.   This week marks three years of COBT and we are thankful for all of your support along the way. Thank you to Jarand for being a fantastic guest to mark the occasion! 

We had a fantastic session today with Kendall Dilling, President of Pathways Alliance. Based in Calgary, Alberta, Pathways Alliance was formed by Canada's six largest oil sands producers (who account for 95% of oil sands production) to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions from their operations by 2050. To do so, they have created a “doable, credible net-zero plan” and are working with federal and provincial governments to meet their target. Kendall has over 20 years of technical and environmental experience in the energy industry and it was our pleasure to visit with him and learn about the great work at Pathways Alliance.   To help guide today's discussion, Kendall shared a presentation covering the vision that drives the Pathway Alliance. In the walkthrough with Kendall, we discuss long range oil supply and demand forecasts, the six companies involved and their mission, Pathways Alliance's three-stage solution to net-zero, the major CCUS system and transportation line from oil sands in northern Alberta to a storage hub near Cold  Lake, additional major projects including electrification, examples of additional technologies that could be developed and deployed to reduce emissions past 2030, and a comparison of ESG oil scores across the globe showing why cleaner Canadian and US oil should be the preferred barrels globally. It was a fantastic overview that spurred many questions and comments from the team. We wrapped with where Kendall sees Canadian energy ten years from now.   To start the show, Mike Bradley reviewed energy equity and commodity performance from the past week, flagging sideways trading in crude oil, modestly improving Brent time spreads and US natural gas continuing its slide lower. He then focused on major oil companies with many reporting earnings this last week and offered up several reasons why EU Oil Majors are outperforming US Oil Majors this year. He wrapped by emphasizing Canadian energy's influence on the US and how it will become even more important as US shale production plateaus. Arjun Murti, part of Veriten's Advisory Board, also joined today's show and shared his arguments for why Canadian oil should be praised for being profitable, abundant, affordable, reliable, and as clean as anywhere in the world.  We look forward to staying connected with the team at Pathways Alliance and watching their progress in the months and years to come. Thanks to you all!

We kick off the new year with Arjun Murti, the Former Head of Energy Equity Research at Goldman Sachs and the Publisher of “Super-Spiked” on Substack. SmarterMarkets™ host David Greely sits down with Arjun to discuss some of the big issues facing energy investors in 2023.

Recorded December 5, 2022.   Please consider donating to World Central Kitchen Listeners have been asking how they can show their appreciation for the talks George is hosting. Top of mind right now are the millions suffering as a result of the tragedy in Ukraine. World Central Kitchen has joined the fight to provide humanitarian aid to those in need of fresh food and meals within Ukraine and in bordering countries. Please consider donating generously to World Central Kitchen on behalf of No Bull - Market Talk with George Noble.   Visit https://noble-impact.com for the Noble-Impact Capital corporate website Visit https://www.noble-funds.com for information on the NOPE ETF   Follow Arjun Murti on Twitter and Substack Follow George Noble on Twitter & YouTube

We're only in the 2nd inning.Check The Lead-Lag Report on your favorite social networks.Twitter: https://twitter.com/leadlagreportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/theleadlagreportFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/leadlagreportInstagram: https://instagram.com/leadlagreport                   Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at www.leadlagreport.com and use promo code PODCAST30 for 2 weeks free and 30% off.                    Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.                    The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.See disclosures for The Lead-Lag Report here: The Lead-Lag Report (leadlagreport.com) Queens On A RollThis podcast was created to educate & inspire people about the ably different...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify

In this episode of Wicked Energy with JG, Justin sits down with Arjun Murti, Senior Advisor, Director, and Content Creator for the energy industry. Arjun has 30+ years as an equity research analyst with global experience covering oil & gas E&P, midstream, and refining, clean & new energy technologies, geopolitics, and energy & climate policy. Justin brings on Arjun after hearing his take on a Twitter space discussing the importance of Canadian Oil and Gas. During the episode, Arjun shares his take and perspective on why Canada arguably has some of the cleanest barrels in the world and if we truly want to provide clean energy to the world, Canada has a critical role in doing so.  Arjun also discusses his substack called “Super Spiked” that focuses on the messy energy transition era that is upon us. His passion for educating the public on energy and oil and gas has sparked a ton interest amongst people looking for quality, factual information around climate policy, ESG initiatives, and geopolitics with energy commodity/equity markets  If interested in learning more or connecting, see the links below: LinkedIn:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/arjun-murti-energy-analyst/ Website: https://arjunmurti.substack.com/ Super Spiked Role of Canadian Energy: https://arjunmurti.substack.com/p/super-spiked-videopods-ep12-the-role#details  Wicked EnergyFor more info on Wicked Energy, please visit www.wickedenergy.io  If you or your company are interested in starting a podcast, visit https://www.wickedenergy.io/free-guide for a free guide on creating a successful podcast. The Wicked Energy with JG podcast is opening up sponsorship opportunities with companies looking to increase reach and awareness with Wicked Energy's audience. Please visit https://www.wickedenergy.io/sponsor for more info. Lastly, if you have any topics or guests you'd like to hear on the show, please email me at justin@wickedenergy.io or send me a message on LinkedIn 

The first time the spotlight found Arjun Murti, he didn't like it very much. An analyst at Goldman Sachs, Murti (BSBA 1992) had made a bold—but ultimately correct—prediction about a "super spike" in the price of oil, and his career would never be the same. He shied from the limelight and finished his career in mostly private-facing roles. But now, he's raising his voice, hoping it can change the way the country talks about a transition away from fossil fuels. On the Voices of Experience podcast, Murti explains what the labels "clean" and "green" energy overlook, dissects the Inflation Reduction Act, and offers advice on starting a career and finding a mentor in the business world. Table of Contents: 1:47 From Cornell to DU 2:19 The "Super-Spiked" prediction and its aftermath 9:34 What's wrong with the energy transition discussion? 13:43 "Nothing is clean, green or brown." 15:45 Evaluating the Inflation Reduction Act 19:27 The importance of mentorship 21:14 Picking your career path 25:29 Choosing work-life balance 28:24 Show notes and credits

To close out our When Markets Break series, SmarterMarkets host David Greely sits down with Arjun Murti, the Former Head of Energy Equity Research at Goldman Sachs and the publisher of Super-Spiked on Substack. David and Arjun discuss the July 2008 spike in WTI crude oil prices to a record high of $147 a barrel and their subsequent collapse.

I had been following Arjun and enjoyed his views and industry leadership. And when he agreed to stop by the podcast it was cool. Not just cool, but way cool. It was an absolutely great discussion where Arjun articulated some of the real concerns facing the world. Everyone in the world deserves low-cost, sustainable energy.Arjun is an advisor or board member for Veriten, ConocoPhillips, Warburg Pincus LLC, and the Center on Global Energy Policy.We talked about the world's energy policies and the world trying to impose those same failed policies on the less fortunate countries. Let's put the lowest kWh with the least impact on the environment and let the markets decide which type.Listen or watch this podcast, and enjoy listing to an industry leader with some really great ideas. After that, subscribe to his Substack HERE and his LinkedIn HERE., and Twitter HEREI would also like to thank our Sponsor: Enverus. If you have to make a decision in the energy market you need data. If you need energy data there is only one Enverus. Also, we would like to give a shout-out to Mark LaCour with OGGN, Paige Wilson also with OGGN, and David Blackmon for their help in the energy leadership roles with Enverus. It's more fun running down the road together!

This is a special one-off episode to address the implications that the war in Ukraine has had on energy markets. We've invited back Arjun Murti, a private equity adviser and board member at ConocoPhilips to join us and discuss the effects the ban on Russian oil and gas have had on a global scale, what energy security means in the wider energy transition movement, and how different supplies of energy must react to the war.  NEW EPISODES: We release main series episodes every two weeks on Mondays. You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://tvpschroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and other podcast players. GET IN TOUCH: send us a tweet: @TheValueTeam  Important information. This podcast is for investment professionals only. This information is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider's consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data. Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Any references to securities, sectors, regions and/or countries are for illustrative purposes only. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change

It's CERAWeek in Houston and we are thrilled to be back in person visiting with great minds in the energy universe. We have a special guest and good friend joining us for this week's session: Arjun Murti, Author of Super-Spiked, Board Member and PE Senior Advisor. Arjun is a seasoned energy expert and has spent his 30-year career researching and analyzing global energy markets. We had much to discuss!First, we touched on Arjun's recent piece, "Energy Security and the Case for Canada." Arjun provided background on his inspiration to launch his platform, Super-Spiked, and what he is doing to help change the energy dialogue. From there, we segued into energy policies over the last 20 years, why we should be arguing for both energy security and climate, fuel economy and the concept of decoupling economic growth from oil and gas demand growth, the quest for the US and Canada to be the low-cost carbon provider to the world, and his 10-year outlook on energy. It was fascinating to note the many connections between our discussion and the sessions taking place at CERA.Mike Bradley kicked off today's lead-in with an energy market performance update and key observations from CERAWeek. Colin Fenton shared reflections from his CERA panel that looked at the economic outlook for 2022-2023 and noted a few market numbers to keep an eye on. As you may remember, Colin previously made the connection between box office receipts and economic outlook and to our delight he has updated data from The Batman's recent release.

Given fast moving developments due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, I am departing from my normal weekend update routine to provide this short intra-week video macro commentary. For the foreseeable future, I will aim to provide more frequent interim updates, as needed, to go along with the regular weekend posts.For full video, double click on video play button below or use this link to watch on YouTube.For audio only, press the black play button above.3 Ways to SubscribeAll Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox, where you will also be able to hit reply to interact with me directly. All content can also be found on the Super-Spiked website.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and to interact with me directly.YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotif y or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.CreditsIntro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman on Apple Music: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

For full video, double click on video play button below or use this link to watch on YouTube.For audio only, press the black play button above.3 Ways to SubscribeAll Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday or Sunday.Enter your email to receive all Super-Spiked content directly to your inbox.YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti. I have been averaging about 1 video per month.Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.Related PostsPrevious Super-Spiked VideopodsESG 2.0 and Energy Transition Framework (EP2)ROCE Deep Dive (EP1)DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.CreditsIntro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman on Apple Music: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

Super-Spiked YouTube link (click the link to the left or double click on video below or audio only is above)You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed of the Super-Spiked Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app.You can subscribe directly to the Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti video feed on my YouTube channel.DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.CreditsIntro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman on Apple Music: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions.ESG 2.0 and Energy Transition series This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

The Covid-19 pandemic continues to shake up the global oil economy as fears surrounding the newly-discovered Omicron variant sparked a drop in prices last week.  This — combined with an ongoing energy crisis and a previous drop in prices during the first wave of the pandemic at the beginning of last year — has prompted a flurry of speculation from oil analysts about where the market is headed next. For a read on the future of oil markets, Host Jason Bordoff spoke with three experts:  Amrita Sen, a Founding Partner and Chief Oil Analyst at Energy Aspects; Bob McNally, the President of the energy advising firm Rapidan Energy Group; and Arjun Murti, a Senior Advisor at Warburg Pincus, a global private equity firm. Their roundtable discussion touched on President Biden's decision to release crude oil from the nation's Strategic Oil Reserves, the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and what international leaders need to consider as the world transitions away from fossil fuels.

Welcome back to the second episode in our ESG mini series. We're joined this week by Arjun Murti. Arjun is a member of the ConocoPhillips board, a senior adviser to the energy sector, and a former partner at Goldman Sachs. Alex Monk and Juan Torres discuss with Arjun the history of energy transitions, the role oil and gas has within the climate change debate and his outlook for oil companies of the future.  Episode notes:  1:13 Episode intro 1:52 Arjun's background  4:02 Cyclical energy- from a major influence in the S&P to a minority 7:07 Are traditional energy majors becoming irrelevant in this energy transition?  14:37 Strict positions - is there a parallel between nuclear in the past and gas in the present 18:47 Traditional energy companies are currently vilified - what role should they play in the climate change debate? 23:43 European energy majors are investing in renewable projects - are oil companies obligated to invest in these technologies for their longevity?  28:39 Why are cash-rich oil majors seemingly slow in investing in future technologies?  32:39 Should oil should transition to renewables?  34:39 Hydrogen's role in the energy transition 36:46 Will a transition make cost of capital rise for fossil fuel companies?  41:47 Supply disruption - will we see more energy price spikes and volatility in the future? 46:24 If you could persuade every investor into their process, what would it be? If you were the CEO of an oil major, what you do to secure the business? NEW EPISODES: We release main series episodes every two weeks on Mondays and ESG mini-series every Thursday. You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://tvpschroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts, Spotify and other podcast players. GET IN TOUCH: send us a tweet: @TheValueTeam  Important information. This podcast is for investment professionals only. This information is not an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider's consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data. Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Any references to securities, sectors, regions and/or countries are for illustrative purposes only. The views and opinions contained herein are those of individual to whom they are attributed, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other communications, strategies or funds. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change.

Today, we will be diving into energy giant, Exxon Mobil. The origins of Exxon date back to John D. Rockefeller and Standard Oil. Exxon was spun out in 1911 as the Standard Oil of New Jersey, and in 1998, Exxon merged with Mobil, which was the original Standard Oil of New York. To break down the rich history of Exxon, I am joined by Arjun Murti, a long-time energy analyst, and investor. During our conversation, we dive deep into the supermajor business and how that drove Exxon's century-long success. We address the past decade of underperformance and examine the key drivers of Exxon Mobil moving forward. Arjun gives helpful overviews on how the energy market has changed across fossil fuels and renewables throughout our conversation. I hope you enjoy this breakdown of Exxon Mobil.   For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page here. -----   This episode is brought to you by Quartr. With Quartr, you can access conference calls, investor presentations, transcripts, and earnings reports – straight from your pocket. Quartr is 100% free and includes companies from 12 markets including the US, the UK, Canada, India, and all the Scandanavian countries.  Quartr is available for both iOS and Android, so check out the app today.   -----   Business Breakdowns is a property of Colossus, Inc. For more episodes of Business Breakdowns, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.   Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter: @JoinColossus | @patrick_oshag | @jspujji | @zbfuss   Show Notes [00:02:25] - [First question] - What is Exxon Mobil and its business scale [00:04:46] - Various metrics to understand their scale and their revenue streams [00:07:37] - How many people on average Exxon's oil touches [00:08:31] - Ways to think about how a barrel of oil can be used [00:09:42] - The supply chain of oil and gas and why Exxon chooses to be integrated [00:10:48] - What a non-integrated supply chain looks like in comparison [00:14:33] - How technology has impacted the exploration and discovery of oil [00:17:22] - Once the land is bought and the oil is coming out of it, what next? [00:19:04] - Overview of what a refinery does to crude oil and its economics [00:23:58] - Final steps of the non-integrated oil supply chain [00:25:23] - The history of the oil industry and John D. Rockefeller [00:29:51] - Why Exxon isn't the largest market cap in the world these past few years [00:38:20] - Some of Exxon's bad capital allocation decisions [00:43:06] - Thoughts on the XTO acquisition and rough cost [00:44:12] - Would Lee Raymond have been able to figure out a better way forward [00:46:36] - Exxon's bet on renewables and climate change and whether or not it paid off [00:51:19] - The size and consumption of the energy market today and its size [00:55:17] - Units costs of oil and coal versus wind and solar and their trends [00:59:16] - How this will play out on a fifty-year time horizon [01:02:06] - Exxon's peer set during their long career [01:04:14] - Other factors that may have contributed to Exxon's recent downturn [01:06:32] - COVID-19's impact on the oil industry [01:09:20] - Opportunities for the future and what could cause a double in market cap  [01:12:07] - What could have contributed to a smaller market cap in the future [01:12:52] - Lessons for builders and investors [01:17:05] - Resources for learning more: The Prize & Titan

On the second of a three-part series on the great energy transition, co-host Todd Buchholz, former Director of Economic Policy at the White House, sits down with renowned energy macro and equity analyst, Arjun Murti.