Podcast appearances and mentions of arjun murti

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.Last week we did a check-in on how the answers to the tactical questions for 2025 we posed back in January were faring (here). This week we go through our Big Themes for 2025 which we had also highlighted back in January (here). We look at what's in and what's out through the lens of macro frameworks, public policy implications, and finally corporate strategy and energy sub-sector outlooks. We will publish our final summer Super-Spiked next week before taking a 2-week hiatus until after Labor Day. BIG THEMES FOR 2025* Energy scenario normalization * Power surge: This generation's super-cycle * Energy sources and technologies MACRO FRAMEWORK IMPLICATIONS * Net Zero and “The Energy Transition” are out. Energy policies that will drive GDP growth and meeting energy's natural hierarchy of needs are in. * Solving for everyone on Earth someday becoming energy rich is in. Assuming people will choose to stay poor is out. * OPEC Research is in. Energy macro agencies and oil companies that were driven by “net zero” narratives are out (for now). What to watch: * BP Energy Outlook (Sep), IEA WEO (Oct) * Africa's significant TAM (total address market): Up to 60 million b/d of desired oil demand versus 5 million b/d todayPOLICY IMPLICATIONS * Energy policy that drives long-term affordability, reliability, and security are in. Policies that start with counting CO2 are out. * IRA is out. Meeting AI demand is in. * Some of the above is in. All of the above was never in. * Regions that are long energy resource should all be in, but some are still out (California) or not sufficiently in (Canada). What to watch: * US natural gas midstream infrastructure * Canada oil and natural gas export infrastructure * Reliability, affordability reforms in California, Western Europe CORPORATE IMPLACATIONS * Companies exposed to power value chain are in. Natural gas is in. Oil value chain is still out. * Solar + batteries are still in. Wind is out. * Nuclear is in. “Green” hydrogen is out. Geothermal hoping to be in. * IPPs are in. SMID oils (E&P, OFS) are out, though SMID OFS diversifying into power are in. * Companies driving new technology development in regions that are short energy resource are in… * …Companies that exist to exploit rich-world government subsidies in the name of CO2 accounting are out.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.This week we check-in on how our “Top 10 Tactical Questions for 2025” published on January 25, 2025 (here) are faring. MACRO ORIENTED (1) Will energy's S&P weighting increase in 2025? Original answer: Yes. Mid-year progress: Wrong so far, but narrative discussed is on-track. (2) Will we see energy outlooks from high-profile organizations stop treating “net zero” as if it were the defining issue? Original answer: Change is coming, but will take time and we'll get wishy washy language in 2025. Mid-year progress: This is on-track to happen more quickly than we anticipated. (3) Can oil become great again in 2025? Original answer: No, Super Vol not super-cycle remains our view. Mid-year progress: Correct so far. GEOPOLITICS & POLICY (4) Will the IRA be repealed, reformed, or left alone? Original answer: Reformed. Mid-year progress: Probably we are technically correct in that the IRA was not repealed, but it was so meaningfully gutted that it very much feels like it was repealed. (5) Will Trump make the Arctic great going forward? Original answer: Yes. Mid-year progress: Trump Administration is giving the Alaska/Arctic appropriate attention. SUB-SECTOR OUTLOOKS (6) Will power-exposed sectors lead the way in 2025? Original answer: Yes. Mid-year progress: Correct so far. (7) What new technology area are you watching more closely to break-out in 2025? Original answer: Autonomous driving. Mid-year progress: The “robo taxi” market is nascent but starting to expand to more areas. M&A (8) Will we see an acceleration of O&G firms enter power markets and, if so, how? Original answer: Yes and organic.Mid-year progress: To be determined. (9) Does the Venture Global IPO signal the tide is turning on energy sector capital formation? Original answer: Yes. Mid-year progress: Wrong so far. (10) Will we see a surprising mega merger in energy? Original answer: Yes. Mid-year progress: Hasn't happened yet.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.Last week we published a written post that took a fresh look at a long standing theme of ours “obliterating peak oil demand” (here). We dug into OPEC Research's most recent World Oil Outlook report (here) to compare OPEC's more optimistic view of long-term oil demand to more bearish forecasts from the IEA and frankly many other leading energy voices. Our own outlook is closely aligned with OPEC's in recognizing the massive unmet energy needs of the other 7 billion people on Earth. The idea that anyone can know today that oil demand is going to permanently peak within the next decade is something we push back hard on. That post has sparked a number of questions, five of which we will aim to address today.Our On A Personal Note this week remembers heavy metal pioneer Ozzy Osbourne, who passed away on July 21. I was fortunate to catch a Black Sabbath reunion tour in 2016.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We hope everyone enjoyed a great 4th of July holiday. This week we will start to flush out a new theme of ours, what we are calling “some of the above, depending on country and region" as the better macro and policy framing for energy. It will undoubtedly get shortened to simply "some of the above" and is meant to reflect that the energy sources and technologies that might make sense for one country or region might not make sense for another. Super-Spiked was created as a protest to that narrow definition of "The Energy Transition" that said all areas must quickly switch only into renewables + EVs and out of fossil fuels within an absurdly short time frame. That movement never made sense and we think is being relegated to the dustbin of history. But its replacement with terms like "all of the above" and "energy pragmatism" are imperfect and imprecise in a different direction. Pragmatism can mean many different things to many different people and both phrases imply an "anything goes" mindset that frankly isn't how countries or companies are going to act. Instead, practically speaking, the choices that will be made are "some of the above, depending on country or region."

The global energy landscape is shifting right now. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, debates about peak oil demand, and waning support for climate action in some parts of the world are challenging long-held assumptions about the pace and scale of the energy transition. Confronting these complex challenges requires an understanding of the forces that drive energy markets and prices.  So where is global energy consumption headed? Are reports of oil's demise exaggerated? And as countries prioritize energy security and economic growth, what does "pragmatism" really mean for the energy transition? This week, Jason Bordoff speaks with Arjun Murti about the state of global energy markets and of the energy transition. Arjun is a partner with Veriten, an energy research and investment firm. He also publishes the Super-Spiked newsletter. Previously, Arjun served as co-director of Americas equity research for Goldman Sachs. Prior to that, he was a buy-side equity research analyst at J.P. Morgan Investment Management. He also serves on the Center on Global Energy Policy advisory board. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is executive producer.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.Ahead of what will be a holiday week off to celebrate America's Birthday, we have five thoughts we wanted to share this week around key themes, research ideas, and some what ifs that we are thinking about:(1) What will it take to get the traditional energy sector, in particular those exposed to the crude oil value chain going again? (2) Private versus public company mindset and opportunities,(3) Domestic coal.(4) "Some of the above" as the correct macro framework for specific regions.(5) A changing Middle East.

As tensions rise in the Middle East, former Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass assess the responses and global ramifications. Payne's Courtney Garcia and Mike Santoli weigh the market's reaction, while Arjun Murti of Veriten breaks down curious reaction in the energy markets. Tim Seymour analyzes moves in the dollar, gold, and global positioning. Plus, our Phil LeBeau reports on Tesla's strong stock move today after the weekend's rollout of its Robotaxi in Austin, TX.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.This week we provide "long takes" on the outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran. Long takes are our attempt to provide perspective on the long-term implications--as opposed to "hot takes"--of current events. We recorded this mid-day U.S. time on Friday, June 13.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.This week we wanted to address two questions that have come up from our recent posts and videos. The first on why are we not more pound-the-table bullish on crude oil after noting how inexpensive it is versus a bunch of other commodities. The second question is what kind of capital return could work is on what kind of “yield vehicle” could be possible for shale pure-plays that do not want to sell to a larger company and where diversification wouldn't make sense.

Market start the week and month paring morning losses and grinding higher throughout the sessios, with plenty of macro catalysts ahead. Our Megan Cassella reports on escalating trade tensions as China strikes back. We take a look at the trajectory with Dan Skelly, Managing Director at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, who expects rangebound action for the rest of 2025. Oil spikes more after an OPEC outlook hike was less-than-feared and energy investor Arjun Murti weighs in. Our Eunice Yoon reports from Beijing on how Chinese restaurants are dropping American menu items—like U.S. chicken feet—as tensions rise. Our Brian Sullivan reports on progress with the Alaska LNG pipeline from the Arctic Circle. Michael Lasser, Retail Analyst at UBS, joins Jon to break down dollar-store earnings later this week. 

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.This week we will have some fun with Bloomberg charts as it relates to the crude oil macro. We noted in our The Good, The Bad, and The Misunderstood Amidst Major Macro Cross Currents written post from two weeks ago (here) that crude oil remains a critically important energy source albeit with conflicting cross currents that are both bullish (US shale maturity tailwinds) and bearish (China slowdown headwinds, OPEC+ supply increases). Whatever one's view of oil, it is still a huge driver of sentiment toward the energy sector and of course Energy's weighting in the S&P 500 is driven by the largest oil and gas companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, etc. One thing is clear from all the charts, oil looks inexpensive to gold, copper, and refining margins and is at the low end of its recent band to Henry Hub natural gas and TTF. Oil is the big laggard and it is casting a pall on Energy's S&P 500 weighting, which has sunk back to a dismal 3% of the S&P 500 versus a Russia-Ukraine high of 5% and its pre-2015 range of 8%-12%. The question is whether oil and oil equities are values or value traps. As a spoiler alert, we are not sure we are actually going to be able to definitively answer that today, and the answer in part depends on one's time horizon. The short-term looks to be more challenging, whereas over the long run we do not believe “the end of oil” is anywhere near. To be clear, over the remainder of this decade, we are more optimistic on growth in power generation—US and global—natural gas demand and for that matter other power generation energy sources like solar + batteries and non-OECD coal. Equities favorably exposed to those trends should perform accordingly. But for the Energy sector broadly speaking to regain a much larger S&P weighing, oil is still the king.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We continue our series of “long takes” amidst the macro mess we are slogging through and wanted to hit upon a couple of observations coming out of a surprisingly interesting quarterly earnings season that we think are relevant as corporates and investors think through long-term implications and opportunities. The first comes courtesy of Diamondback Energy: Is US shale oil peaking? And if it is, what does that mean for the energy macro. The second comes from Next Era Energy which made some interesting remarks about the relative economics of various generation sources juxtaposed against massive US power demand growth. The first two points then lead to the obvious question of how should companies think about business evolution, M&A and strategy during a period of uncertainty and turmoil to best position themselves for the decade ahead. For investors, who and what do you want to own?

Kevin Gordon, Charles Schwab Senior Investment Strategist kicks off the show, tracking the S&P 500 ‘s first down day in the last 10 session. Morgan breaks down Palantir's quarterly numbers, plus a bull-and-bear debate on the stock with Dan Ives, Wedbush Global Head of Technology Research, and Brent Thill, Jefferies Analyst. Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler Chief Investment Strategist, joins on the macro and Fed outlook, while Arjun Murti, Partner at Veriten, weighs in on the energy sector and falling oil prices. Plus, Hollywood gets caught in the crosshairs of U.S.–China trade tensions—our Julia Boorstin reports on the growing tariff risks for the entertainment industry.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We wanted to follow up on the Special Edition episode of this week's Close of Business Tuesday video podcast where we interviewed Mark Lashier, the CEO of Phillips 66. P66 is in the midst of a proxy battle with Elliott Advisors. I will refer everyone to that episode (here) as well as the published materials from both the company (here) and Elliott (here) for more information. At Super-Spiked, it is our self-imposed policy to not discuss individual companies and so this is not P66 dedicated episode. What we are looking to do though is discuss a few topics about how we think about corporate strategy including (1) being diversified vs a pure play, (2) when it makes sense to restructure and split apart and when it doesn't, (3) when does external activism make sense, and (4) how to be your own internal activist. We are in a macro environment where a lot is changing in terms of the outlook for China, the increasing maturity of U.S. shale oil, faster expected power generation and the role of different energy sources to meet that growth. Geopolitics remain front and center. We expect oil demand to grow but it's going to be choppy. Natural gas, LNG (liquefied natural gas), and NGLs (natural gas liquids) are expected to grow much faster, but what is the right business model to participate? Will upstream companies need to start looking overseas again? And if so, who and how is the best way to do that? There are a lot of moving parts. As companies consider potentially meaningful strategic actions, there is the risk of a disconnect between what some will think is the best course of action in the near term versus the evaluation of risk/reward opportunities in the long term. As companies take steps, some will be second-guessed and the specter of rising shareholder activism will be there.To be clear, different analysts will have different takes on this topic and what companies should do. There is no one-size-fits-all answer to any of this stuff. It can be frustrating or perhaps annoying that luck and timing can matter a lot, but so does good governance and management. No one bats 1.000. But structural underperformance is neither sustainable nor OK either.

In this episode of the Value Perspective, co-hosted by Arjun Murti, we're honoured to welcome Niall MacDowell. Niall is a professor at Imperial College London, a Chartered Engineer and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Chemistry. He is a public and private sector consultant and recently contributed to the UK's Net Zero strategy. In this episode, we explore the growing sense of exhaustion in the climate change debate and unpack how Net Zero targets were established despite being nearly impossible to achieve. We take a closer look at the decision-making frameworks guiding solar energy adoption and discuss why economic prosperity and human welfare, especially in the developing world, must be part of the climate conversation. Finally, we examine the true cost of adaptation in the rapidly changing world. Enjoy! NEW EPISODES: We release main series episodes every two weeks on Mondays. You can subscribe via Podbean or use this feed URL (https://tvpschroders.podbean.com/feed.xml) in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and other podcast players. GET IN TOUCH: send us a tweet: @TheValueTeam  Important information. This podcast is for investment professionals only. Marketing material for Financial Professionals and Professional Clients only.  The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations.  Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions.  Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.  Diversification cannot ensure profits or protect against loss of principal.  The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested.  Exchange rate changes may cause the value of investments to fall as well as rise.  Investing in emerging markets and securities with limited liquidity can expose investors to greater risk.  Private assets investments are only available to Qualified Investors, who are sophisticated enough to understand the risk associated with these investments.  This material may contain “forward-looking” information, such as forecasts or projections. Please note that any such information is not a guarantee of any future performance and there is no assurance that any forecast or projection will be realised.  Reliance should not be placed on any views or information in the material when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. The views and opinions contained herein are those of the individuals to whom they are attributed and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds.  Any reference to regions/ countries/ sectors/ stocks/ securities is for illustrative purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instruments or adopt a specific investment strategy. Any data has been sourced by us and is provided without any warranties of any kind. It should be independently verified before further publication or use. Third party data is owned or licenced by the data provider and may not be reproduced, extracted or used for any other purpose without the data provider's consent. Neither we, nor the data provider, will have any liability in connection with the third party data.  

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We will start with an apology to those of you that prefer the written notes but with the Super Vol nature of this tariff trade war and the dramatic market moves, we are going to do another short video. We tried our best to avoid “hot takes” and stick with how to think about what it means for the Energy sector over the long run—i.e., the “long takes.” For companies and investors that are not trying to day trade this crazy market, there are some fundamental questions about how to think about the macro, CAPEX, M&A, and what to do with so much uncertainty. We would like to wish everyone that celebrates a Happy Easter. We too will be enjoying the long weekend and will publish our next Super-Spiked in two weeks.

What does global energy transition look like in a time of major geopolitical change, including rebalancing of trade? In this special episode of "Energized: The Future of Energy”, host JJ Ramberg and Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel talk to Arjun Murti, partner at Veriten and founder of the energy transition newsletter Super-Spiked. They discuss the impact of President Trump's new energy policies, the role of North America in the global energy transition, and the possible impact of tariffs and trade tension on the energy sector.Host: JJ Ramberg and Greg Ebel Guest: Arjun Murti Subscribe to the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.

What does global energy transition look like in a time of major geopolitical change, including rebalancing of trade? In this special episode of "Energized: The Future of Energy”, host JJ Ramberg and Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel talk to Arjun Murti, partner at Veriten and founder of the energy transition newsletter Super-Spiked. They discuss the impact of President Trump's new energy policies, the role of North America in the global energy transition, and the possible impact of tariffs and trade tension on the energy sector.Host: JJ Ramberg and Greg Ebel Guest: Arjun Murti Subscribe to the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.We had intended to publish a written note this week that we thought had some interesting analysis on energy sub-sector profitability over what we consider to be the 2021-2024 mini-cycle. But President Trump's April 2 “Liberation Day” Rose Garden event squashed those publication plans. OPEC decided to add to the noise with its own surprise announcement that it would add additional volumes. As of the April 3 close, energy equities, oil commodities, and the broader stock market have been hit hard and we have pivoted this week to producing a short video podcast to share our thoughts. With the major caveat that we are one day into whatever this potential new paradigm is—and given our aversion to providing “hot takes” on the news of the day—we wanted to offer some initial long-term perspectives on macro developments, i.e., “long takes” so to speak.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week's video is a follow up to last week's written post titled "What Does Energy Pragmatism Mean for Climate & Sustainability" (here). We wanted to expand on some of the points in our own voice and also address various questions and pushback we have received.Our key messages this week: (1) Energy pragmatism means a return to energy's natural hierarchy of needs, rather than the inverted version that pretended anyone anywhere prioritizes carbon emission reductions over energy availability and reliability; (2) investment flows into non-fossil fuel energy sources are not impacted by western world virtue signaling, as the climate bubble actually peaked way back in 2021; (3) the other 7 billion people in developing markets hold the key to how energy markets will evolve in coming decades, not us Lucky 1 Billioners.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.This past week we attended CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston. Pragmatism, balance, and realism have been the themes uttered by just about every single speaker. Some have long been in this camp. Others are new. All are welcomed. We are still embracing inclusivity at Super-Spiked. Some will say we shouldn't be so forgiving to those people that 5 minutes ago were calling for an end to fossil fuel investment and are now suddenly seeing the light in regards to reliability, geopolitical security, and affordability. You, our loyal subscribers, know where we have been standing all along. It is our mission that the dialogue, understanding, and macro energy policies recognize energy's natural hierarchy of needs, where all anyone anywhere at all times cares about is can I use energy right now. Without energy access there is nothing. So in that spirit, we welcome everyone to the world of pragmatism.Before we get into our Top 10 takeaways from CERAWeek 2025, we would like to offer our congratulations to Dan Yergin, Atul Arya, and everyone at S&P Global for putting on a world class show. We learned a ton and caught up with many friends and colleagues from around the world. There is no conference like CERAWeek that brings together all of the global energy industry in one place.

Greetings, and welcome back to the podcast.This episode we are joined by Mr. Arjun Murti - Partner at Veriten LLC and a Senior Advisor at Warburg Pincus. Mr. Murti has spent over 30 years on Wall Street as a sell-side equity research analyst, buy-side investor, advisor and board member covering the global energy sector. Mr. Murti previously served as a Partner at Goldman Sachs from 2006 to 2014. Prior to becoming Partner, he served as Managing Director from 2003 to 2006 and as Vice President from 1999 to 2003. During his time at Goldman Sachs, Mr. Murti worked as a sell-side equity research analyst covering the energy sector. He was co-director of equity research for the Americas from 2011 to 2014. Previously, Mr. Murti held equity analyst positions at JP Morgan Investment Management from 1995 to 1999 and at Petrie Parkman from 1992 to 1995. Mr. Murti serves on the board of directors of ConocoPhillips & Liberty Energy Inc. He also serves on the advisory boards of ClearPath and Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy and as a board observer to Welligence Energy Analytics. Mr. Murti graduated with a business degree specializing in finance from the University of Denver,Since November 2021, Mr. Murti has published Super-Spiked, a Substack newsletter and podcast about the energy transition.Among other things, we discussed The End of the Energy Transition Era & What it Means for Investors.Enjoy.Thank you to our sponsors.Without their support this episode would not be possible:Connate Water SolutionsATB Capital MarketsEnergy United 360 Engineering & Environmental ConsultingEVA SoftwareBroadbill EnergySupport the show

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We follow up on last week's post that heralded The Rise of the Energy Pragmatism Era (here). No more inverting the hierarchy of needs with non-sensical net-zero-is-all-that-matters energy outlooks that would subjugate vast swaths of humanity to ongoing poverty. We have moved into an exciting and even fun new period for all things energy—new, old and everything in between. Oil & gas is converging with power. Technology and energy are converging in the sense that you can't have the former without the latter. Billion-person scale economies in the developing world are doing whatever it takes to bring wealth to their citizens—all of which is synonymous with energy growth. And for those regions it will be a focus on reliability, affordability, and geopolitics that will motivate an increasingly diverse mix of energy sources and technology. This is not about looking backwards...it's about the path forward.This week's video will start our discussion on new opportunities that could arise as energy pragmatism spreads, in particular to regions that had been most in “climate only” mode. What regions have been left behind that deserve a fresh look? How can we best meet the substantial energy needs of ALL 8 billion people on Earth? Real economics are returning, not unsustainable rich-country government handouts to the wealthiest amongst us. Welcome to The Energy Pragmatism Era!

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.The firehose of news flow out of the new Trump administration since, and frankly preceding, his inauguration has not stopped. While US presidents throughout history seem to elicit strong reactions, President Trump inspires a degree of hysteria from those that oppose him and a do-no-wrong deference from his supporters. What we find is that whatever the issue is—it could be domestic spending, sanctions, or tariffs—when someone has an obviously dripping disdain for Trump, it weakens the efficacy of their argument, even if partly accurate. The opposite is also true. We find both extremes to be pretty unhelpful in sorting through what matters. By the time this video podcast is published, President Trump will have only been in office for 4 weeks: there are still 3 years and 48 weeks to go—permanent freak out mode is not sustainable or healthy! In this week's video, which we recorded a little earlier than usual due to some travel this past week, we address a number of questions that have arisen. We are going to do our best to use our equity research analyst's mindset to assess policy actions taken or proposed. This means our only goal is to make the right call and provide the best insight we can for the companies we advise. We will keep our answers focused on how it all might impact the long-term energy macro and corporate strategy.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.As long-time Super-Spiked subscribers know, we are not about “hot takes” on the issue of the day. With that said, it's been an incredible first week and a half since the US inaugurated its 47th president. A fire hose of Trump-driven news has instantly recast global narratives around energy and geopolitics as well as as a host of other topics we don't normally cover in Super-Spiked. The World Economic Forum's Davos gathering happened last week. And DeepSeek, a Chinese AI program in the spirt of ChatGPT and related programs, burst onto the scene after its US iPhone app went viral last weekend, upending stock markets and in particular anything and everything related to the A.I. trade. We are going to try our best to put this torrent of news flow in the context of what it might mean for the longer-term trends and outlook for the energy that is our bread and butter.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.It's been a great start to the year for the traditional energy and power sectors broadly speaking. This video will publish just two days before we have a new administration here in the U.S. And as we highlighted in our last few Super-Spiked's from December as well as the “Big Themes for 2025” outlook post from last week (here), we feel considerable optimism that the narratives and perspectives about energy are becoming more pragmatic and sensible after a pretty rough stretch over 2021-2024 where a very narrow definition of “The Energy Transition” unfortunately dominated energy mindspace. Our confidence that that era decisively came to a close in 2024was on a full display in what was a remarkably civil and mostly thoughtful confirmation hearing for Chris Wright, president-elect Trump's nominee to be energy secretary, conducted by the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. In this video we hope to further expand on our key themes for 2025 through the lens of some of the pushbacks or key questions we have been fielding.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. We follow up on our written post from last week, Reflections On The End of The Energy Transition Era (here), to talk about important lessons learned from what was an insane period of time. This week will dive into the importance of governance, an area that frankly is often a bit of a black box for investors and those not involved in board-level discussions. We'll include a disclaimer upfront. The comments this week are generic to our 32-year career as an equity research analyst studying and engaging with the energy sector. We are not referring to any specific companies that we are personally involved with or via our role at Veriten.

This holiday weekend on our Inside the Coffeehouse series, we welcome Arjun Murti and Jeff Currie back into the SmarterMarkets™ studio.   Arjun is Partner at Veriten and Publisher of "Super-Spiked" on Substack. Jeff Currie is Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle.   David Greely sits down with Jeff and Arjun, reuniting these two former Goldman partners and colleagues to share their perspectives on the market, economic, and political forces shaping the future of our energy markets.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.We hope all of you that tune in or read Super-Spiked know that we try our hardest to be non-partisan and present views from what we refer to as an equity analyst's mindset, which means it does not matter what we personally think about an issue, we are just trying to make the right call. But this week we will confess that we are excited about the new energy team that has been proposed by president-elect former president Donald Trump with North Dakota governor Doug Burgum for Secretary of Interior and Liberty Energy CEO Chris Wright for Secretary of Energy. President Trump has also proposed creating a new National Energy Council that will be headed by Governor Burgum that will look to co-ordinate a whole-of-government approach to energy policies.We will apologize in advance that we are likely to sound far more partisan than we prefer. For those of you listening that either serve or have served in Democrat administrations—or that simply were not happy with how the recent election turned out—please know that we highly value you as a subscriber and we appreciate our ongoing engagement with those of you in that camp that we regularly dialogue with.The appointments of Governor Burgum and Mr. Wright signify a return to an approach to energy that puts abundance, reliability, security, and affordability at its core and an “all of the above” approach to harnessing American energy resources and technology. We would contrast this with the prior administration's emphasis on addressing climate change, which we see as a subsidiary issue within energy and should not be the centering policy point that comes with a climate activist agenda. The “climate only” focus of recent years that took hold in the aftermath of COVID was a motivating factor for the creation of Super-Spiked and our eventual un-retirement and joining Veriten. Chris Wright in particular has been outspoken via his Bettering Human Lives report (here). The report beautifully articulates why we use energy in the first place: to better human lives. Super-Spiked and Bettering Human Lives share a common worldview and motivating spirit. In this week's video podcast we will discuss how re-prioritizing energy abundance, reliability, security, and affordability differs from the “climate only” agenda of the past several years from the perspective of energy equities. Our written post from last week, which we would encourage you to read, addressed various macro and policy issues around energy scenario analysis, power, new energies, and oil markets (here).

Happy Veterans Day to all who served and Happy Remembrance Day for our British, Canadian, and Australian friends. Today (and every day), we thank you and your families for your service and sacrifice. With the election behind us and the transition of a new administration on the horizon, we brought together three esteemed friends of the firm and previous COBT guests for a Special Edition of COBT. We wanted to brainstorm with them what happens next in energy policy-making. We were honored to host Anne Bradbury, CEO of the American Exploration and Production Council (AXPC), Bill Flores, Vice Chairman of ERCOT, former Congressman, and Veriten Senior Advisor, and Maria Korsnick, CEO of the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI). Each of these leaders has been a strong advocate for energy in Washington and brings deep insight into the complexities of energy legislation. Arjun Murti, Brett Rampal and I were thrilled to join and hear their immediate reactions and perspectives on what the incoming administration could mean for the future of energy. In our discussion, we explore the implications of the Trump Administration for energy policy, expecting broadly that the new administration will focus on energy reliability, affordability and infrastructure. We discuss potential changes to the Inflation Reduction Act to make it more technology-agnostic and more supportive of dispatchable energy sources, including nuclear and natural gas. There was a lot of speculation about “leaving the carrots but getting rid of the sticks” and also “the use of a scalpel and not a sledgehammer.” Bill shares insights on critical Congressional dynamics, how to handle any potential obstacles the current administration may put in place before leaving office, and the importance for energy policymakers to work on areas of agreement across the aisle to ensure truly durable energy policies. Anne emphasizes that in terms of environmental regulations, the US oil and gas industry is willing and able to show that they are the cleanest system globally already, and that they are ready to meet heightened regulatory standards, but that these standards need to be resilient and realistic to avoid constant swings with each administration. Maria highlights federal policy that NEI is supporting to incentivize initial first-of-a-kind builds as well as needed policy reforms to strengthen grid capacity and streamline permitting. We go on to cover the potential influence of Elon Musk if he assumes a role in the new administration, the importance of ending the partisan divide in energy policy, the need to prioritize American energy dominance across both traditional and new energy technologies, the value of experienced career staff in DC to ensure effective policy implementation, and much more. Overall, we are feeling optimistic for American energy in the next administration as the change provides an opportunity to keep what's good but change what's not. There were many references in our discussion to “not throw the baby out with the bathwater.” We are immensely grateful to Anne, Bill and Maria for their friendship and for joining us. We hope you find the conversation as interesting and insightful as we did. God bless our veterans, and our best to you all!

This week we provide some initial thoughts on the U.S. election, the bulk of which was decisively declared on election night itself. We regularly emphasize that we aim to bring an equity research analyst's mindset to evaluating the energy sector. That means we are simply trying to make the correct call on what we think will happen—not what we personally wish would happen or hope will happen. And we will do our best to stick with that in this video podcast, though when it comes to emotionally charged topics like elections, we'd have to admit that some amount of wish casting and personal opinion will creep in.In terms of Super-Spiked subscribers, we are going to guess that many of you, perhaps even a majority, will be pretty excited about the election results. But we also take a lot pride in the fact that we have a substantial contingent of subscribers that were hoping for a different outcome. The world is a better place for all of those viewpoints. And we thank all of you, those that agree with us and those that disagree, for your ongoing constructive engagement. As we repeatedly say, we are looking for the pushback to our views. It makes us better analysts.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. We recorded this video podcast with a little less than a week to go before the November 5 US elections. We are seeing a lot of punditry commentary about what choosing one side or the other would mean for this policy or that sector and who will be the winners and losers depending on the outcome. We get it. There are differences between the parties, their areas of emphasis, and their rhetoric. But when it comes to the big picture outlook for the energy sector, we want to remind everyone that the structural macro trends unquestionably transcend micro politics. This is something we wrote about in our July 27, 2024 Super-Spiked, Does the US president's party impact the energy macro results? (here). At a high level, the answer is a firm “no.”Clearly individual companies and specific projects can be impacted as we have seen via the lack of approval for various pipeline projects or the LNG permit pause or the granting of tax credits to various new technologies. So yes, a specific company can be impacted by who wins. But at the big picture level, we believe the mega trends triumph over micro politics. Moreover, as we will show with the last 2 elections, various sectors did not perform as conventional wisdom expected.

Today we had the honor of hosting Senator John Cornyn of Texas, who has served in the US Senate since 2002 and is now in his fourth term. Senator Cornyn has been a steadfast advocate for Texas interests and supports policies that promote responsible domestic traditional energy production while exploring new energy sources to strengthen US energy independence. Senator Cornyn has held several key leadership roles including Republican Whip and currently serves on the Senate Finance, Intelligence, and Judiciary Committees. Before joining the Senate, Senator Cornyn served as a district judge, a member of the Texas Supreme Court and Texas Attorney General. We were thrilled to connect with Senator Cornyn for an election, energy and geopolitical focused discussion one week away from the 2024 Presidential Election. We begin by asking Senator Cornyn for his perspective on escalating international conflicts and global geopolitical tensions, including the Iran-Israel conflict, North Korea's involvement in Ukraine, and threats from Russia and China. We discuss the importance of robust US intelligence and deterrence to maintain global stability, the need for proactive US leadership in foreign conflicts, and the reality that “our holiday from history is over.” Senator Cornyn outlines opportunities and challenges in the coming lame duck session, key legislative actions, and Congressional priorities including national defense funding, tax policy, and the federal budget, as well as key Senate races and the potential for Republicans to retake the Senate. We explore America's energy potential, the strategic importance of US LNG to European allies, challenges with transmission and permitting for energy infrastructure, the evolution of US policy toward China, the possibility of permitting reform, and the merits of state versus federal power. We also touch on incentives for reshoring critical manufacturing to address supply chain vulnerabilities, national debt and budget priorities, and the critical importance of national unity despite political differences. It was a fantastic discussion, and we are very grateful to Senator Cornyn and his team for their continued efforts on behalf of the energy community. Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by highlighting that markets this week are increasingly focused on a handful of Big Tech Q3 earnings and next week's Presidential election. On the bond market front, bond traders continue to be perplexed that the 10yr bond yield has spiked from 3.6% back to 4.3% over the last month, which is a higher level than the 10yr was trading prior to the 50-basis point cut at the September 18th FOMC Meeting. He noted that bond traders seem to be betting that Trump will win the Presidency and that his promise of Chinese Tariff increases and significant Federal regulatory cuts might lead to higher “real” growth and higher deficits. On the crude oil market front, WTI had fallen roughly $5/bbl this week on a brief de-escalation in Mideast tensions and concerns that Chinese economic stimulus plans would disappoint. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 continues to post new highs. Big Tech stocks seem to be retaking market leadership given that the market-weighted S&P 500 Index is again outperforming the equal-weighted S&P 500 Index. On the energy equity front, lower oil prices are leading many energy companies to take a more cautious approach on their Q3 calls which is continuing to weigh on the entire sector. Arjun Murti emphasized that long-term macroeconomic trends are more influential than election outcomes alone, and that a balanced “all-of-the-above” approach to support maximizing traditional resource production and exports as well as new energy technologies is crucial not only for the US but for developing nations seeking diversified energy for geopolitical and economic stability. We hope you find today's discussion as interesting and insightful as we di

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.Amidst the geopolitical and macro turmoil, we take a step back this week to turn back to how companies can think about outperformance through all the volatility. One can't be frozen and simply wait for a calmer or better time to materialize. No one should be sitting around waiting for an easy bull market to emerge. Long-time Super-Spiked subscribers will know that we are long-running advocates for companies focusing on profitability and a fortress balance sheet. This week we will start the process of spending some time on the "G" word: growth. Growth became a 4-letter word for investors after the surge in CAPEX during the Super-Spike era and subsequent US shale boom led to profitless growth--something we have spent a lot of time discussing in prior posts.And let us be clear, profits and balance sheet health remain the priority. That said, there is no doubt investors will always side with companies that can grow versus those that cannot grow at a given level of profitability and balance sheet strength. The trick is to hit the trifecta: growth, returns, and balance sheet strength. Moreover, for especially the upstream portion of the industry where asset life is finite--oil and gas fields naturally deplete--it is critical to adequately reinvest back in the business if a company is to persist as a going concern.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we continue the theme of normalization. The 2020-2023 period of “urgent energy transition,” “peak oil and gas demand,” and ESG hysteria we think is fading. It is being replaced with what we would call “normal” supply/demand/price volatility concerns. The biggest issue right now facing oil markets has been uncertainty on the outlook for China in particular. Going back to the super-cycle days of 20 years ago, we have long looked at copper markets to provide insights into China, given China is over 50% of copper demand. A noticeable gap has opened between weak crude oil prices and more resilient copper. Historically, the gap has closed with crude following the direction of copper. We shall see if history repeats.

In this insightful episode of Wicked Energy with JG, Justin Gauthier sits down with Arjun Murti to delve into the intricacies of global oil demand and the evolving energy landscape. Arjun criticizes extreme political positions on oil and gas, advocating for a balanced approach to energy production and innovation. He sheds light on the governments stance on fracking and the broader implications of U.S. energy policies. The discussion pivots to China's "all of the above" energy strategy, highlighting their investment in coal, nuclear, natural gas, and renewables to ensure energy security. Arjun provides an analysis of China's significant influence on global oil markets and the challenges and opportunities posed by their demographic shifts. Other key topics include the economic viability of biofuels, short-term and long-term oil price forecasts, and the impact of interest rate cuts on the energy sector. The episode wraps up with insights into Veriten's strategic advisory work across the oil and gas value chain. LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/arjun-murti-energy-analyst/ Websites: https://arjunmurti.substack.com/ Show Sponsors InflowControl InflowControl is a tech firm specializing in enhancing oil production efficiency and minimizing environmental harm through their Autonomous Inflow Control Valve (AICV®). The technology boosts profitability in mature oil fields by filtering out undesired gas and water, allowing previously overlooked zones to contribute to production. This results in both higher profitability and Lower Carbon Oil for stakeholders. For more information, visit the links below: Website: www.inflowcontrol.no LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/inflowcontrol-as/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqdgIooQhYtUBo-auUlYw-Q Mainline Ventures Mainline Ventures stands alone as the premier strategy consulting firm dedicated to the energy sector, founded by former E&P C-Suite executives. They transform deal-making from an art into a science with their Process Driven Negotiation Technique, focusing on active deals and offering services like bespoke training, deal advising, and go-to-market strategies, often on a contingency basis due to their strategy's proven effectiveness. This approach not only yields measurable, scalable results but also seamlessly integrates with your existing operations, ensuring long-term sustainability without the need for changes in your team or technology. LinkedIn Link: https://www.linkedin.com/company/mainlineventures/ Website: https://mainline-ventures.com/

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.We are using the occasion of our 50th Super-Spiked video podcast to provide thoughts, lessons learned, and new perspectives gained from the first 49 videopods, 90 written posts, and what is now nearly 3 years of publishing Super-Spiked content. As always, we are especially appreciative of both the positive and constructive feedback from all subscribers; we really do love hearing from you. Our glass half-full world view sees energy narratives and conversations slowly but surely becoming more reasonable and less focused on extremist singular goals. There is a growing recognition that until you solve for how everyone on Earth will some day become energy rich, you will never solve sub-goals in areas like the environment or climate. We continue to believe geopolitical imperatives will be the driver of new energy technologies and sources for large population centers that are not blessed with abundant crude oil resources.

It's back to school time and we could not think of a better guest than Arjun Murti. With over 30 years on Wall Street covering the global energy sector, he could write a textbook on the topic. Arjun joins host Ed Coyne for a far-ranging conversation on global energy and how energy security shapes our lives.This podcast is provided for information purposes only from sources believed to be reliable. However, Sprott does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Any opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Any opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments, or strategies. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned or related to the information herein. This communication may not be redistributed or retransmitted, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of Sprott. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitute your agreement not to redistribute or retransmit the contents and information contained in this communication without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of Sprott.

As global oil consumption reaches new record highs, Double Take welcomes Arjun Murti, an expert on energy markets, to barrel into the paradoxical state of the oil industry amid global energy transitions.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we provide the third installment of our August series on “30 Years of Perpetual Transition” with a look at a number of noteworthy geopolitical and policy developments that have occurred. A key conclusion is that some events that were expected to be impactful were not, while others that had less fanfare did have a bigger impact. Some countries had grand openings that resulted in dramatically higher oil or gas supply. Others, not so much. Two weeks ago we discussed some of the different macro drivers that have changed over the course of our career (here). Last week we focused on sectors, business models, and strategy shifts (here). All of it is to point out that energy markets are forever changing. Energy transition has become an unfortunate and loaded term that most people would define as meaning a transition out of fossil fuels and into renewables over an arbitrarily short time frame like 2050. We do not agree that definition of energy transition is happening or would be desirable from the perspective of human prosperity. But there is a need for industry executives, investors, and policy makers to recognize that energy is in perpetual transition and that one needs to always be looking forward with a focus on the important drivers of change and to not let mis-guided and ill-informed rhetoric cloud judgements.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we continue our series of "30 Years of Perpetual Transition" with a focus on how various energy sectors and business models have evolved. As a reminder, we recognize the term "energy transition" has become a loaded term, which most people now take to mean the idea that the world will be transitioning away from fossil fuels to renewables, over some arbitrarily short time frame like by 2050. We do not agree that this version of “energy transition” is on-track to happen or that it would be desirable from a human prosperity standpoint.But that does not mean nothing is changing. In fact, over the course of our 30-year career a ton of stuff has changed. Last week we focused on the energy macro with a closer look on big changes to the relative importance of various regions to oil demand (here). This week we will take a look at the major energy sub-sectors and give examples of how business models and risk taking have evolved.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below. For the last month of summer, we are aiming to produce a series of hopefully short videos that highlight key lessons from the last 30 years of what we are calling perpetual transition in the energy space with an aim to offer insights on the go forward view. Energy transition itself has become a loaded term of late, typically referring to the idea that the world will be transitioning away from fossil fuels to renewables, over some arbitrarily short time frame like by 2050. We do not agree that this version of “energy transition” is on-track to happen or would be desirable from a human prosperity standpoint.But that does not mean nothing is changing. In fact, over the course of our 30-year career a ton of stuff has changed. And we have little doubt that the next 30 years will NOT look like the last 30 years. The macro has changed, sectors and company strategy have changed, business models evolve, new technologies and sources or location of energy supply emerge, demand changes, which stocks and sectors perform best changes. Everything is constantly transitioning. So to reiterate, we do not subscribe to what most people today mean by “energy transition,” as we expect all forms of energy to grow in coming decades. But under the hood, energy markets are constantly transitioning, and we do wish to better understand the direction the world is headed.Today's video is the first of our new series and will focus on “30 Years of Perpetual Transition” in the energy macro. Next week we plan to turn to the various energy sectors and company strategy. In other videos, we will look at geopolitics, policy, and the environment.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.Our Super-Spiked post last week (here) asked the question of “Does the US President's party matter to energy macro results?” Our over-arching conclusion is that the bark of presidential or party rhetoric is far worse than the bite. Energy is by nature a long-term business and mega trends around sources of supply, global economic growth, geopolitics, and capital spending cycles drive share price performance, crude oil and natural gas production, as well as CO2 emissions trends than does whichever party happens to be in power for a particular 4- or even 8-year period. The fact that these long-term trends dominate over-arching results—and we observed that there is a notable exception for particular projects that might impact specific companies, something like an approved or rejected oil or gas pipeline or perhaps a new energies subsidy—the long-term trends mean there is likely far more common ground among the major parties than there is disagreement. Yet all we hear about are the extremist edges of the debate. So in the spirt of peace, love, and unity, this week's video will focus on where there is or should be common ground among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents here in the United States.

We continue our Summer Playlist 2024 this week with Arjun Murti, Partner at Veriten and Publisher of “Super-Spiked” on Substack. David Greely sits down with Arjun to discuss America's energy independence – and what it will take to maintain America's energy exceptionalism to help meet rising global demand into a future of lower carbon and more sustainable energy.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.This week we focus on the question “Can you trust the United Nations on energy and climate?” The question is sparked by a “climate change” warning label that YouTube placed on Super-Spiked Episode 37 “Goodbye Europe, Hello Rest of World” (here) that discussed an updated climate change statement from Barclays, German de-industrialization, and our thoughts on the role of US and Canadian traditional energy. The warning label linked to a United Nations website that highlighted what it described as “Facts” and “Myth Busters” on climate energy (here). In reviewing the 16 “facts,” we find that 2 we would agree are definitively facts, another 2-3 are factually true but start the U.N. down the road of advocacy and weaponizing the topic of climate, and the other 10-11 are a mix of opinion, advocacy, and in some cases outright falsehoods. Our concern with what the U.N. presents as “facts” is that it is the organization that oversees the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is widely (universally?) considered the authority on so-called climate science.We have spent considerable time in prior posts and videos discussing our concerns with institutional advocacy under the pretense of sober analysis from groups like the International Energy Agency (IEA), Glasgow Financial Alliance For Net Zero (GFANZ), and within bank and asset manager ESG/Sustainability groups. Frankly, we have been late to taking a closer look at the U.N. itself, most likely because we have not relied on its data directly and it has otherwise not been within the purview of our “Wall Street” approach to discussing energy and climate. The U.N. and IPCC clearly deserve greater scrutiny given their massive influence on how the world understands climate.

Today we had the honor of hosting former Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana. Senator Landrieu served for three terms from 1997 to 2015 and chaired the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, the Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee and the Homeland Security Appropriations Committee. She also served on the Armed Forces Committee. During her time in Washington, Senator Landrieu gained a reputation for working across the aisle on important energy and other national priorities. Currently, Senator Landrieu is Co-Chair of Natural Allies, a coalition of stakeholders that recognize the vital role natural gas plays in the energy mix to meet carbon reduction goals. We were thrilled to visit with Senator Landrieu. In our conversation we discuss how Louisiana's industrial base relies heavily on energy production and consumption, the historical bipartisanship in the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, how geography influences people's understanding and views on energy issues, the role of natural gas in reducing emissions, and why nuclear energy has bipartisan support. Senator Landrieu shares background on her role at Natural Allies and the group's focus on supporting US natural gas, the need to educate the public on the economic benefit of open markets particularly for US exports, finding ways to help countries like China and India reduce their reliance on coal, why the Senator disagreed with the Biden Administration's LNG permitting pause, and broadly the need for pragmatic, bipartisan energy and climate solutions. We explore SPR usage and levels, the status of permitting reform with significant delays expected until after the Presidential Election, finding practical solutions to reduce emissions and grow the economy through building infrastructure faster, and much more. It was a fantastic conversation and we are very grateful to Senator Landrieu for sharing her time and valuable insights with us all. She calls it like she sees it and is a very refreshing centrist voice. Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that 10-year bond yields continued their recent plunge after last week's cooler than expected CPI report and currently trade at ~4.15%. WTI price is trading at ~$81/bbl and has been stuck in a tight trading range ($80-$83/bbl) for the last several weeks. Crude oil traders are focused on global demand and are growing concerned with slowing global economic growth, especially China. U.S. natural gas continued its recent plunge and trades at ~$2.15/Mcf, despite Hurricane Beryl temporarily curtailing 1.7-1.8bcfd from Freeport LNG. He noted that U.S. natural gas production has rebounded back above 101bcfd and remains problematic given natural gas storage levels that are ~18% above normal. He discussed that the main word to describe broader equity market trading action this last week is “rotation.” Big 6 (AI & Tech equities) and broader equity indices like the S&P 500 & Nasdaq are significantly underperforming smaller-cap indices like the Russell 2000, which are perceived to be bigger beneficiaries of lower future inflation/interest rates. He ended by noting that Q2 Energy sector reporting begins this week with both pipelines (KMI) and oil services (LBRT, HAL & SLB) reporting. Arjun Murti shared his thoughts on the need for a diverse energy portfolio to meet global demands, the roles of the US and Canada as key players in both traditional and new energy markets, the unnecessary partisan divide over energy sources, and the importance of leveraging the US's leadership in technology and capital markets to lead in energy innovation. We hope you enjoy the discussion with Senator Landrieu as much as we did. Thanks to you all for your friendship and support!

Today we had the pleasure of hosting David Sacks, Fellow for Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), for a comprehensive discussion on China and the intricate dynamics of US-China, US-Taiwan, and cross-Strait relations. Prior to joining the CFR in 2017, David served at the American Institute in Taiwan focused on political military affairs. David's research spans Asia, China, Taiwan, defense and security, as well as political history and theory including the political thought of Hans Morgenthau. The CFR is an independent think-tank and publisher committed to providing insights into global affairs and serves as a resource for its members and the broader public in navigating the complexities of international relations. We have been interested for quite some time in finding an expert on China and were thrilled to visit with David. In our conversation, David first shares background on China's evolving role globally and the changing dynamics of US-China relations, the security-related and economic implications of conflict between China and Taiwan, the challenges in managing tensions in the Taiwan Strait, escalating tensions in the South China Sea, US-China rivalry in the region and its effects on maritime activity, and China's assertive foreign policy under Xi Jinping's leadership and its implications for global power dynamics. David shares his perspective on similarities and differences between the Trump and Biden Administrations' approaches to China, the feasibility and implications of decoupling from China economically and the interdependence between the US and China in the global economy, the potential for future leadership changes in China, and how other countries are responding to China's assertiveness including how European perceptions and policies towards China have evolved. We explore China's economic and demographic outlook and the country's overall strengths and weaknesses, potential implications if China were to become weaker in the next 10-20 years, the potential export of low-cost EVs from China, trust issues in US-China relations, Taiwan's perspective and defense strategies, the CFR's role in international diplomacy, and much more. Thank you, David, for sharing your insights with us all! We learned a tremendous amount and could have gone another hour we were so intrigued with the conversation. Mike Bradley kicked us off with a few updates. He noted the 10-year government bond yield looks to have found some temporary support at ~4.6% but will likely move on Friday's PCE deflator report. WTI (~$83/bbl) pulled back this past week on what looks to be temporary cooling in Mideast tension. Oil trader sentiment seems to have shifted to one that could be underestimating future geopolitical risks, which could send oil prices materially higher, and force OPEC to push barrels back into the market. Q4 earnings are kicking into high gear with ~35% of S&P 500 companies reporting this week, which should result in elevated broader market trading volatility. S&P 500 relative strength has recently reversed from overbought to oversold levels, and S&P 500 volatility has also spiked to 1-year highs. On the energy equity front, he highlighted that Q1 results are also beginning to kick into high gear with a barrage of results from E&Ps, Oil Majors, Oil Services & Refiners. Electric Utilities were by far the best performing S&P sector last week and there will be many companies reporting this week. He ended by discussing YTD Asian equity market performance, noting that Japan and Taiwan are the top two regional equity market performers. Arjun Murti discussed the concept of geopolitical risk premiums in oil prices, noting three key factors: structural changes in major producers, civil strife causing production fluctuations and difficult forecasting, and the impact of war. Sharing examples for each element, he noted the complex nature of geopolitical risk and its influence on s

Today we were thrilled to be joined by Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), to discuss a critical yet often ignored topic: the US national debt and budget deficits. Prior to her tenure at the CRFB starting in 2004, Maya served at the Brookings Institution and on Wall Street. Maya is a native Washingtonian, Harvard Kennedy School alumni, and frequently testifies before Congress as a leading budget expert. Founded in 1981, the CRFB is a bipartisan nonprofit dedicated to educating the public on issues with significant fiscal policy impact. The organization offers independent policy analysis, engages with policymakers to improve the country's fiscal and economic condition, and serves as an educational resource. At over 100% of GDP and in the range of the all-time high last seen during World War 2, the US national debt looms large as a significant macroeconomic and overall risk factor to the nation and the world. We were so excited to hear Maya's insights on this very important and very complex subject. In our conversation, Maya shares historical context on past efforts to address fiscal issues and how interest in fiscal policy has fluctuated (from Ross Perot to Simpson-Bowles to today), the current economic situation, the impact of recent events like COVID-19 on government borrowing and spending, how the increase in interest rates has highlighted the structural nature of the problem and gained the public's attention, and the current polarizing political environment and how it has halted efforts to address fiscal challenges. We discuss the responsibility of political leaders to acknowledge and address long-term budget concerns, challenges with addressing entitlement programs including Social Security and Medicaid, political leaders' refusal to address issues that are headed towards trust fund insolvency, proposed solutions including establishing a fiscal commission to tackle the issue comprehensively, the idea of inflating away the debt or selling assets to reduce the debt, major threats posed by the growing national debt including loss of fiscal space, economic slowdown, national security risks and intergenerational inequity, and much more. We covered a great deal of territory and can't thank Maya enough for joining. As you will hear, we offered to help Maya in any way we can, including helping her salute the “fiscal heroes” who are leaning in and trying to make a difference.   Mike Bradley kicked us off by flagging that this is an extremely important week for markets given both the March CPI and PPI will be released on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, and that if these stats print hotter-than-expected, the FED will not be cutting rates anytime soon. He noted markets may be underestimating inflation given sharp YTD gains in a variety of commodities. On the commodity front, WTI is trading at ~$86/bbl (highest level since Oct'23), WTI time spreads continue to trade in huge backwardation and the 2H'24 oil S/D deficit positions OPEC to push barrels back into the market. He noted that even though we remain pretty constructive with the 2H'24 crude oil setup, we're a bit concerned the recent crude oil bullishness is becoming too consensus. On the broader equity market front, equities continue to take their cue from both interest rates and an obsession with AI equities. If CPI and PPI readings print cooler-than-expected, it will result in a huge bond and broader equity market rally. This Friday will also be a heavy Q4 reporting week for U.S. major banks. He ended by highlighting that Exxon Mobil Corp. recently hit an all-time stock price high and that its market-cap and enterprise values (~$500B) finally rebounded back to their late-2007 levels. In late 2007, energy's weighting as a percentage of the S&P 500 was ~13% (peaked at ~16% in mid-2008) and today is at ~4%, leaving the energy sector plenty more room to run in the years ahead. Arjun Murti dis

MacroVoices Erik Townsend &  Patrick Ceresna welcome former Goldman Sachs Partner and current Veriton partner, Arjun Murti. Erik and Arjun will discuss Arjun's outlook for where energy markets are and where they're headed in the coming energy transition. https://bit.ly/3IzFxxI   ⚫ Follow Arjun on X: https://www.twitter.com/ArjunNMurti  

North America holds enough oil and gas reserves to provide cheap, clean, and reliable energy to the rest of the globe for many decades – so why isn't it? Energy analyst Arjun Murti breaks down the key factors at play: capital investors who are wary of uncertain regulatory environments, countries like China and India that won't give up on coal, and a little-known group called the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (which is actually implementing all the terrible ideas that groups like World Economic Forum only talk about). Arjun explains how America – through a new Marshall Plan of government and private sector initiatives – can overcome these roadblocks to become the leader in global energy. Arjun Murti has spent over 30 years as a global energy markets analyst with firms like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. Read his Super-Spiked substack at https://arjunmurti.substack.com/ and follow him on Twitter at @ArjunNMurti