Podcasts about blue owl

In this episode of the InsuranceAUM.com podcast, host Stewart Foley, CFA, is joined by Josh Ufberg, Senior Managing Director at Blue Owl, to discuss the evolution of the credit secondaries market and why it is becoming an increasingly important part of the private credit landscape. As private credit continues to grow, Josh shares his perspective on how secondary transactions can provide liquidity solutions while creating opportunities for investors seeking attractive risk-adjusted returns.   Stewart and Josh explore how credit secondaries work, how value is created through discounted purchases, accrued cash flows, and transaction structuring, and why insurers may find the asset class particularly compelling. They also discuss diversification, capital efficiency, shorter-duration exposures, and the broader role credit secondaries could play in insurance portfolio construction as the market continues to mature.

In this episode, we break down private credit titan Blue Owl Capital's move to establish its regional headquarters in Abu Dhabi amid macroeconomic shifts. We also explore the intense bidding war brewing in the food delivery sector as Saudi startup Ninja threatens Uber's Middle East acquisition strategy, and highlight the major regulatory milestone in Washington as the DOJ clears Paramount's $110 billion purchase of Warner Bros Discovery.

Victor Lopez on Fixing Broken MSP Financial Plumbing with AI Todd interviews Victor Lopez, a former attorney and private credit professional at Blue Owl Capital who co-founded Flexpoint after seeing how clunky MSP financial tools were. Victor traces his "aha" back to Blue Owl financing Thoma Bravo's 2018 acquisition of ConnectWise, which led him to question why PSAs mix ticketing/project work with invoicing while still requiring separate accounting software. They discuss how most AI talk in the MSP industry centers on service delivery, but Victor argues owners should also apply AI to operations like accounts receivable/payable, collecting and making payments, payroll, and other non-revenue tasks that often fall on owner-operators (especially in sub-$1M MSPs).  Victor describes AI agents, including voice AI for overdue invoice calls, and emphasizes human-in-the-loop controls, segmenting which customers are contacted, and escalation to a human to protect relationships while improving efficiency and owner quality of life. This episode is brought to you by Opsleader Pro. A place for MSP owners and managers to get the systems and tools they need to build a stable and growing MSP. Part group coaching, part peer group, everything you need to run a successful MSP. 00:00 Meet Victor Lopez 01:20 From Law to Flexpoint 02:02 ConnectWise Deal Spark 02:57 Why PSA Billing Exists 05:35 AI Beyond Tickets 08:13 Operational AI Wins 14:09 Agentic AI for AR 16:50 Join Opsleader 17:26 Controls and Oversight 22:09 Voice Agents Calling Clients 28:27 Owner Time and Quality 32:20 Wrap Up and Takeaways

In der heutigen Folge sprechen die Finanzjournalisten Daniel Eckert und Holger Zschäpitz über das jähe Ende einer Gewinn-Serie, den Dax-Aufstieg von Hochtief und wie Ihr steuerschonend Euer Depot weitergeben könnt. Außerdem geht es um OHB, SpaceX, Broadcom, CrowdStrike, SAP, Nemetschek, Atoss, Partners Group, Blue Owl, Apollo, Ares, EQT, Blackstone, KKR, RWE, E.on, Porsche Holding SE, Elmos Semiconductor, Siltronic, Süss Microtec SE, Saudi Aramco, OpenAI, Anthropic, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, Nvidia, Boeing, Jefferies, Partners Group Global Value (WKN: A2N9U7), Invesco Solar Energy ETF (WKN: A2QQ9R). Wir freuen uns an Feedback über aaa@welt.de. Noch mehr "Alles auf Aktien" findet Ihr bei WELTplus und Apple Podcasts – inklusive aller Artikel der Hosts. Hier bei WELT: https://www.welt.de/podcasts/alles-auf-aktien/plus247399208/Boersen-Podcast-AAA-Bonus-Folgen-Jede-Woche-noch-mehr-Antworten-auf-Eure-Boersen-Fragen.html. Hier könnt ihr den AAA-Newsletter abonnieren: https://www.welt.de/newsletter/article232797673/Alles-auf-Aktien-Der-taegliche-Boersen-Newsletter-fuer-WELTplus-Abonnenten.html Und - ganz neu: AAA gibt es jetzt auch auf Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/alles_auf_aktien/ Disclaimer: Die im Podcast besprochenen Aktien und Fonds stellen keine spezifischen Kauf- oder Anlage-Empfehlungen dar. Die Moderatoren und der Verlag haften nicht für etwaige Verluste, die aufgrund der Umsetzung der Gedanken oder Ideen entstehen. Hörtipps: Für alle, die noch mehr wissen wollen: Holger Zschäpitz können Sie jede Woche im Finanz- und Wirtschaftspodcast "Deffner&Zschäpitz" hören. +++ Werbung +++ Du möchtest mehr über unsere Werbepartner erfahren? Hier findest du alle Infos & Rabatte! https://linktr.ee/alles_auf_aktien Impressum: https://www.welt.de/services/article7893735/Impressum.html Datenschutz: https://www.welt.de/services/article157550705/Datenschutzerklaerung-WELT-DIGITAL.html

   Na edição 187 do Outliers InfoMoney, Clara Sodré e Fabiano Cintra ampliam a discussão sobre o setor de private credit dos Estados Unidos. Eles entrevistam Fernando Cortez, da Blue Owl Capital, uma das líderes globais desse mercado.   Para Cortez, a corrida de investidores para sacar aportes em private credit no início de 2026, noticiada pela imprensa americana, não encontra justificativa nos fundamentos. “A média histórica de default, em 13 anos de direct lending, era mais de 2,7% anualizados. Hoje, está rodando em mais ou menos 1%. Ou seja, abaixo da média".  "A gente não consegue enxergar os motivos que lideraram esse número de saques mais elevados no último trimestre”, afirma Cortez. “Então, acho que é o comportamento do investidor reagindo a uma narrativa e a eventos pontuais e, talvez, um exagero a alguns pontos que não foram muito bem esclarecidos. Isso leva, obviamente, o investidor mais receoso a resgatar”. companhe o bate-papo e entenda como diversificar os investimentos.   Confira também o episódio 186, no qual Renato Jerusalmi, da Riza Asset, comenta o momento do crédito privado no Brasil e nos EUA 

UK gilt investors are weighing in on who they would like to see replace Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, and the fund raising for Blue Owl is running dry. Plus, the US economy is hurting due to high inflation and eBay says no thanks to GameStop's takeover bid. Mentioned in this podcast:Who do gilt investors want to lead Britain? UK borrowing costs surge as Starmer leadership crisis rattles bond Fuel, munitions and food: Trump's Iran war rips across US economyUS inflation jumps to 3.8% as Trump's Iran war sends petrol prices soaringBlue Owl retail fundraising evaporates amid private credit concernsEbay rejects $56bn GameStop bid as ‘neither credible nor attractive'Get in touch with us at podcasts@ft.com Note: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts Today's FT News Briefing was hosted and edited by Marc Filippino, and produced by Katya Kumkova, Saffeya Ahmed, and Sonja Hutson. Our show was mixed by Sam Giovinco. Additional help from Michael Lello. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT's Global Head of Audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

C dans l'air du 13 mai 2026 - Chômage, inflation : vous n'avez encore rien vu ...Deux mois et demi après le déclenchement de la guerre au Moyen-Orient, le détroit d'Ormuz est toujours fermé, la situation piétine sur le plan diplomatique et les voyants économiques commencent à passer au rouge. L'Insee vient de publier ses chiffres pour le premier trimestre 2026 : le chômage est en hausse de 0,2 % et atteint 8,1 %, son plus haut niveau en cinq ans. Les prix à la consommation ont augmenté de 2,2 % sur un an au mois d'avril, tirés par la flambée des prix de l'énergie. La croissance française est à l'arrêt. L'activité économique a stagné au premier trimestre, et la banque centrale n'a pas fait de prévision chiffrée pour le second trimestre. Autre signe d'inquiétude, les faillites d'entreprises ont frôlé la barre symbolique des 70 000 en mars dernier, selon des données de la Banque de France.Avec un pouvoir d'achat en recul, les courses deviennent un casse-tête pour de nombreux Français. Les boutiques sont de plus en plus désertées, et le secteur de la mode en particulier connaît une crise très profonde, marquée par une succession de redressements judiciaires et de fermetures qui fragilisent même des marques que l'on pensait incontournables. Ainsi, le chausseur Minelli vient d'annoncer la fermeture définitive de ses boutiques le 30 mai.Dans ce contexte, le Smic va augmenter de 2,4 % le 1er juin, a annoncé ce mercredi le ministre du Travail Jean-Pierre Farandou, soulignant qu'il s'agit d'une augmentation « mécanique » du salaire minimum, liée à la reprise de l'inflation, sans coup de pouce. Parallèlement, le gouvernement planche sur de nouvelles annonces pour soutenir le pouvoir d'achat des Français alors que les bénéfices des géants pétroliers relancent la question d'une taxation des « superprofits ». D'autres idées sont en débat, comme le blocage des prix ou la nationalisation de TotalEnergies.Parallèlement, le Conseil de stabilité financière (FSB), l'organisme international créé dans le cadre du G20 pour surveiller les vulnérabilités du système financier, alerte sur les risques croissants du crédit privé. Dans un rapport, il pointe la trop grande opacité des opérations de financement privé, plébiscitées ces dernières années, en particulier aux États-Unis, pour financer les PME et les ETI, et aujourd'hui dans l'œil du cyclone. L'inquiétude est montée d'un cran après que le géant BlackRock, ou encore le gérant Blue Owl, ont dû plafonner les rachats de parts de fonds investis dans la dette privée. Dans une tribune publiée en mars dans le New York Times, Richard Bookstaber, ancien responsable au Trésor américain, estime non seulement que « des signes de tension systémique commencent à apparaître », mais que ceux-ci pourraient déboucher sur une crise encore plus sévère que celle des « subprimes » en 2008. Il nous a accordé une interview.Nos experts :- Philippe DESSERTINE - Économiste, professeur à l'Université IAE Paris panthéon sorbonne, auteur de L'horizon des possibles, publié chez Robert Laffont- Mathieu PLANE - Économiste Directeur adjoint du Département Analyse et Prévision à l'OFCE, enseignant à Sciences PO Paris, auteur de L'économie française 2026, publié aux éditions La Découverte- Jean-Paul CHAPEL - Éditorialiste économique à France Télévision- Stéphanie VILLERS - Économiste, spécialiste des questions de Finances, conseillère économique de PwC France, un cabinet de conseils auprès des entreprises

Five major developments in the credit crisis/bust. BlackRock, JP Morgan, Blue Owl, Apollo and another big run on a big fund. Private credit didn't go anywhere, the situation keeps escalating and each one of these represents more significant confirmation of the shift toward toxic waste status. From asset valuations to more losses at big names, the behavior has radically changed. Eurodollar University Money & Macro AnalysisGundlach Warns Investors Will Lose Money on Private Credithttps://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/gundlach-warns-investors-lose-money-200041360.htmlBlackRock Private Credit Fund Cuts Asset Value on Markdownshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/blackrock-private-debt-fund-cuts-asset-value-on-loan-markdownsJPMorgan-Led Group Eyes $500 Million Loss on Qualtrics Debthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-06/jpmorgan-led-group-eyes-500-million-loss-on-qualtrics-debtBlue Owl adviser sued over allegedly inflating fund values, charging excessive feeshttps://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/blue-owl-adviser-sued-over-allegedly-inflating-fund-values-charging-excessive-2026-04-28/Apollo CEO Rowan warns of market correction, slams ‘egregious' practices at rival insurershttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/06/apollo-ceo-rowan-market-correction-rival-insurers.htmlApollo to Give Investors Daily Pricing on Private Credit By Septemberhttps://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/apollo-to-give-investors-daily-pricing-on-private-credit-by-september-44a2c84b$10 Billion Golub Fund Caps Outflows After Requests for 8.5%https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/-10-billion-golub-fund-caps-outflows-after-requests-for-8-5

Private credit was the hottest craze on Wall Street. Throughout the boom, one firm became its poster child, Blue Owl. But a recent panic posed a troubling question. What happens if investors suddenly want out at the same time? WSJ's Matt Wirz reports on the turmoil and explains why private credit is something American workers need to pay attention to. Ryan Knutson hosts.  Further Listening: - The Wall Street Craze Jamie Dimon Can't Resist. Even If It Blows Up. - Private Equity and Crypto Could Be Coming for Your 401K Sign up for WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Private credit is one of the fastest-growing areas in global finance but what actually is it, and why is everyone talking about it?In this episode of the Market Maker Podcast, we break down private credit in simple terms: how it works, why it's grown into a $3 trillion market, and the key players driving it, including Blackstone and Blue Owl.We also go deeper into:Why private credit exploded after the 2008 financial crisisHow it differs from traditional bank lending and public debtWhat a Business Development Company (BDC) isWhy institutional investors are pouring money into itThe risks, defaults, and whether this could become a systemic issuePrivate credit offers higher returns than traditional debt but with that comes important trade-offs around liquidity, transparency, and risk. We explore whether the concerns you're seeing in the media are justified or overblown.If you've seen headlines about private credit and want a clear, no-nonsense explanation, this episode is for you.⏱️ Timestamps:(00:00) What is private credit?(00:58) How it works (simple explanation)(03:19) Why it's grown so fast(05:48) Inside Blackstone Strategy(11:05) Blue Owl & BDCs explained(15:31) The risks & “financial crisis” debate

Private equity gets sold as exclusive, sophisticated, and “what the smart money does,” but the reality is far less compelling. Don and Tom break down the illusion: limited transparency, questionable valuations, high fees, and serious liquidity risks—all for returns that barely edge out (if at all) simple public market strategies. They argue that the supposed advantages—like the “illiquidity premium” and diversification—don't hold up under scrutiny. The episode then pivots to smart listener questions on early retirement planning and 457 vs. 401(k) decisions, reinforcing a core theme: complexity is often marketed as intelligence, but disciplined simplicity usually wins.0:05 Financial pros sell complexity because it pays them more0:30 Private equity pitch: exclusivity, access, and “smart money” appeal1:40 Article breakdown: positives vs. negatives of private equity2:21 “You get to feel special” and access private companies3:00 The illusion of diversification and non-correlation3:37 Public vs. private pricing: real markets vs. guesswork4:04 Example of questionable private equity valuation jumps5:27 The “illiquidity premium” myth6:00 Liquidity risk: not being able to access your money6:27 Pension funds and private equity track record reality6:51 Returns comparison: private equity vs. public markets8:20 Small cap value vs. private equity (higher returns, lower cost)9:48 Why advisors push complex products (fees and optics)10:30 Liquidity crises and echoes of 2008 (Blue Owl example)11:36 Caller: early retirement planning with pension and TRICARE13:19 Financial readiness vs. purpose in retirement15:28 Long-term risks of early retirement and longevity16:19 Monte Carlo planning and scenario testing18:37 Listener question: 457 vs. 401(k) strategy19:56 Key advantage: penalty-free withdrawals from 457 plans23:13 Rare but real risk: non-governmental 457 ownership issue24:35 Roth vs. traditional: educated guesses, not certainties24:48 When you need a real financial plan (not just rules of thumb)26:03 Human advisor vs. emerging AI planning tools27:40 Closing thoughts and how to get helpQuestions? Comments? Click!

Send us Fan MailIn Part 3 of our Caesars Palace Coup series, we're back with Sujeet Indap of the Financial Times — co-author of the definitive book on the $30 billion LBO disaster — to connect the dots between 2008's creditor-on-creditor violence and the private credit tremors rattling markets right now. Caesars itself is back on the auction block, with Tilman Fertitta's Golden Nugget circling alongside a potential management buyout involving Tom Reeg and Carl Icahn. We dig into what a 2.0 deal would actually look like, why existing bondholders could get layered all over again, and how the Vici REIT spinoff reshaped the entire capital structure in ways most headlines completely miss when they quote the "$7 billion" offer price.But the bigger story is what's happening across private credit broadly. In the last few weeks alone, Blue Owl permanently gated a perpetual fund, Blackstone partners had to backstop redemptions, and BlackRock, Cliffwater, and Apollo have all gated funds. We push Sujeet on the question every allocator is wrestling with: is this a contained correction or the early innings of something systemic? We get into why first-lien recoveries have collapsed, why loan-only capital structures and uni-tranche debt have changed what "senior secured" actually means, the PIK toggle canary that's quietly ticking up, and why the alt managers trading at 40x forward earnings may have priced in a growth story that's about to meet its first real credit cycle.We also cover the fascinating bifurcation playing out in real time — record investment-grade issuance from Amazon, Honeywell, and others on one end, while BDCs gate retail investors on the other — and what it means for the push to get private credit into 401(k)s. Plus: the $80 million Wachtell-to-Kirkland lawyer poaching that Sujeet wrote about and why it might be the most underrated leading indicator of the next debt crisis. Shop our Self Paced Courses:Investment Banking & Private Equity Fundamentals HEREFixed Income Sales & Trading HERESubscribe to our Substack: https://substack.com/@thewallstreetskinny

欢迎收听雪球出品的财经有深度，雪球，国内领先的集投资交流交易一体的综合财富管理平台，聪明的投资者都在这里。今天分享的内容叫A I泡沫论的另类推演：从资金配置动向看高估值的持续性，来自躺平指数。很多关注A I行业的投资人或许注意到，无论是商业模式还是产品定位，市面上诸多的Agent产品正在向趋同演变。二零二六年4月9日，Open A I把Chat G P T Pro档位拉到每月100美元，和Anthropic一年前推出的Claude Max同价位档精确对齐，20美元100美元200美元的三档结构完全一致。五天之后的4月14日，彭博披露Anthropic正在收到8000亿美元估值的出资意向，这个估值水平已经和Open A I相差无几。是不是咂摸出点不对劲了？按理说，两家互为竞对的公司，在成长的初期，应该是尽可能找到自己的差异化定位，或者一些人无我有的优势实现增长。可这两家公司越来越像当年优步和滴滴之间的战争，只不过还没走到价格战那一步而已。这种产品端的同质化只是表象，背后有一个更深的定价机制值得看清楚。二零一四年开始，优步和滴滴烧掉百亿美元补贴，同一时段估值从几十亿抬到几百亿；外卖大战、共享单车是同一套打法。但那些剧本里，估值的定价是"打到最后剩一家、再收垄断租金"这个未来故事，前提放在将来。A I这次，8000亿美元不是为了未来的垄断而定的，谁都知道，这两家公司基本没有合并的可能。不是为了垄断地位，那是为了什么呢？软银、英伟达、亚马逊、中东主权基金、老虎基金、富达手上有万亿级的资金必须部署到A I这个主题，业绩基准、战略叙事、出资人承诺都有这样的要求。而在A I赛道里能吸纳百亿级单笔资金的独立标的屈指可数Open A I、Anthropic、x A I，其中x A I也已经在二零二六年2月被Space X整体并入。钱多，投得出去的标的少，资金配置压力就这么上来了。于是，估值不是从公司基本面向上反推的（在那个算法下两家都不值8000亿美元）。万亿级资金必须投进去，需要吸纳多少钱，估值就抬到多少，差异化有没有、谁赢谁输都不是最主要，只要作为标的能接住这笔钱，估值就成立。知道了这个基础事实再去看，产品端的策略逻辑就讲得通了。基础模型能力在快速同质化，开源大模型生态也在步步紧逼，企业客户签约时都要求功能对等、保留替换权；能撑起付费意愿的高价值场景就写代码、深度研究这几个，两家被迫挤进同一圈子，做几乎相同的产品动作。如果你是押注做多A I的投资人，到了这里就必须问自己一件事：A I基础建设、电力公司、私募信贷、云厂商，这些节点的最终支付方其实只有几家。钱沿着这条链一路流下去，走到哪里、在谁身上沉淀、哪一段最先撑不住，才是你真正要评估的风险。1，都挺好的有一个认知需要对齐，基本面分析在这一波A I浪潮里，特别是喜欢沿着A I产业链投资的投资框架里，并不能很好地客观反应出公司的风险。甲骨文是A I周期里翻身最猛的上市公司之一，3月10日发布的二六年第三季度财报里，云基础设施业务同比增长超过80%，合约储备冲到有史以来最高水位，财报发布当晚股价跳涨约10%。对一家做数据库的老牌公司来说，这是彻底的转身，也是市场等了好几年才等到的第二曲线。但是，二零二五年9月，甲骨文和Open A I签下一笔为期五年、总额3000亿美元的云服务合约，按年均计算，仅这一笔就相当于每年600亿美元规模的长约，占甲骨文全部合约储备的一半以上。而Open A I自己，当期运营现金流仍是负的，日常开销要靠下一轮融资来覆盖。为了履行包括 Open A I 在内的一批大客户合约，二零二六年2月甲骨文宣布将通过债务和股票融资筹集450到500亿美元。一家供应商为了服务一批当期现金流并不稳定的客户，自己也得先加杠杆，甲骨文未来数年的收入故事，有相当一部分得靠这家还在亏钱的公司一笔一笔兑现。在大多数产业链里，每一层签出的合约，规模通常不会远远超过自身当期现金流能覆盖的范围。汽车厂商的订单以季度到一年为单位，对应整车交付周期；企业软件的多年合约，规模对应客户可预见的I T预算；互联网平台的广告和订阅收入，基本是当期结算，合约规模和当期收入几乎同步。基本面分析不需要专门去追每一层的合约对手方是谁、信用基础挂在哪里，因为合约规模和当期运营节奏之间的关系是自然成立的。这种错位并不是甲骨文独有的，也不是甲骨文自己的战略选择，更不是某种会计处理的意外，而是整条A I产业链普遍发生的现象。钱不够了怎么办？一九九九年互联网泡沫顶峰，Lucent当年营收接近380亿美元，对客户承诺的供应商融资高达81亿美元，大约是收入的四分之一；Nortel、Cisco做着同样的事：把钱借给资金紧张的新兴电信运营商买自己的设备。麦肯锡当年的统计里，全行业九家电信设备供应商合计向客户放贷256亿美元。二零二五年9月，英伟达宣布对Open A I承诺投资1000亿美元，大部分会被用来采购英伟达自己的A I芯片，四个月后黄仁勋自己公开澄清"这从来不是承诺"，会按部署进度一轮一轮评估。这和当年Lucent做的事如出一辙，当年的供应商融资也是按季度推进的意向，市场按满额给估值，直到客户违约才发现出了大问题。二零二一年泡沫破灭，客户集体违约，Lucent 贷款组合的坏账从个位数飙升到 40%+；全行业数十家电信服务商在二零零一至二零零二集体违约破产；Lucent营收从峰值近380亿美元崩到二零零六年的80亿美元，以每股3美元卖给Alcatel；Nortel股价从86.75美元跌到0.18美元，走向破产。A I产业链正在上演的剧本有些趋同，链上多个关键节点都在用远超自身当期现金流的合约规模锁定未来的增长：像CoreWeave这类算力承包方，二零二五年全年营收约51亿美元，合约储备到二零二六年4月已经冲到约880亿美元，其中Meta和Open A I两家合计占了约三分之二。最顶端那两家A I创业公司，仅Open A I一家的累计合约承诺已经达到1.15万亿美元，涉及Broadcom、Oracle、Microsoft、Nvidia、AMD、Amazon、CoreWeave七家供应商，而当期年化收入只有240亿美元。基本面分析看不清合约规模和当期现金流之间的这个缺口，因为合约规模在报表上只以"合约储备"一行呈现，不是经审计的资产，也不进当期损益表。一旦有问题出现，追到最后只能靠上一层按合约付款；最终，除了像谷歌微软这样有能力自我输血的大企业之外，都要依靠一级市场缓解资金压力。于是，单独拎出来产业链每个节点的报表数字都真实存在，但它们共享同一个隐含假设：资金会持续以当前的速度涌入A I主题，下游客户会按合约持续付款。这才是基本面分析在A I基建链上不够用的地方，它看不到层与层之间由合约串起来的隐性依赖，也就看不到单节点的"好生意"其实建立在别人的悬空合约上。2，钱是在流动的在整个A I产业链中，CoreWeave是一家非常有意思的公司。根据公司二零二五年年报，全年营收51亿美元，其中67%来自微软。单看这一组数字，CoreWeave给出的画面是一家靠稳定大客户吃饭的B端生意，客户是全球市值第二的科技巨头，信用基础完美。可在880亿美元的合约储备中，微软的历史合约只占一小部分；占大头的是二零二五年后新签的几笔大合约。Meta在二零二五年9月签下142亿美元合约之后，二零二六年4月又追加了210亿美元，半年内对CoreWeave的总承诺翻倍到352亿美元，占合约储备约40%；Open A I累计224亿美元，占约25%。相当于这家公司未来几年的增长里，有近三分之二挂在这两家大厂的持续付款上。Meta表面上比Open A I稳，至少有独立的广告现金流兜底。但Meta自己建AI数据中心的方式，走的是另一条绕路：它只出 20% 的股权，大头的钱靠Blue Owl领头的合资公司去借，借来的几百亿债务不进Meta自己的财报。一个客户是亏钱的 Open A I，另一个客户是靠外部合资公司维持扩张的 Meta，两家付款的底气，其实都不完全在自家手上。在美股资金热捧的行业里，还有一类和A I本身相对较远、但同样受益巨大的企业：电力设备制造商和电厂建设承包商。G E Vernova做燃气轮机和电网设备，二零二四年4月从G E集团分拆上市，股价从140美元左右的发行价涨到二零二六年4月接近1000美元，两年涨了近7倍；Argan做燃气电厂的E P C总包，过去一年股价从130美元涨到600多美元，接近5倍。但它们过去一年的涨幅对不上传统电力设备和工程承包业务的基本面，核心问题是产能和合约规模严重不匹配。G E Vernova的燃气轮机合约储备从二零二四年几十吉瓦冲到二零二五年底83吉瓦，目标二零二六年底100吉瓦，但公司年产能要到二零二六年中才扩到20吉瓦，手上的订单至少要四五年才消化得完；Argan的项目储备从14亿美元翻到29亿美元，是全年营收的三倍。这些合约储备数字本质上是未来多年的预期收入，不是当期资产，也不进损益表。一旦大厂缩减AI数据中心扩张、订单延期或重谈，合约储备的执行节奏可以瞬间减速。即使合约带有违约条款，实际兑现往往是大幅缩水的重新谈判，而不是全额赔偿。把前面两个例子放到一起看，链条上的节点大致分三种情况。微软、谷歌、Meta、亚马逊、甲骨文这些大厂是第一种。主营业务在A I出现之前就已经独立成立，广告、搜索、电商、数据库、企业软件这些现金流不靠AI活着。对这类节点做多，需要的是一次承受力测试：把当前估值里A I溢价的部分清零，公司还值多少，这才是真正的安全边际。Open A I和Anthropic是第二种，他们本身是靠资金配置压力输血，信用基础挂在下一轮融资能否成功、估值斜率能否继续抬升上。这一层二级市场投资人直接持有还不现实，更多是作为"领先信号"来盯，下一轮私募估值的斜率等等，都是判断整条链是否出现问题的早期指标。中间靠合约吃饭的中下游节点是第三种，情况最复杂，算力承包方、数据中心、电力公司、电网设备商、私募信贷基金都在这里。权重要按合约对手方的构成来配：对手方以大厂为主的（比如Constellation对微软的电力合约），可以当防守仓。而对手方里Open A I或Anthropic这类悬空合约比例高，或者大厂自身也在用S P V结构维持基建扩张的（比如CoreWeave合约储备里Meta和Open A I那近三分之二），都需要提高警惕。3，结语还有一个信号，是沿着这条链看的人应该盯住的：链条最末端的流动性。A I是当下最大的资产配置方向，主权基金和大资金的长期部署还在陆续到位。但一级市场的钱从来不是一路匀速涌进来的，它会盯着几件事：下一轮私募估值能不能继续涨、员工在内部转让里是不是踊跃卖票、有没有大的私募信贷基金开始被赎回。过去半年Blue Owl接连三次异动已经说明了，再厚的资金池，也会在某些节点先行紧张起来。Blue Owl是美国最大的私募信贷管理公司之一，二零二五年末管理规模超过3000亿美元，旗下基金承接了大量A I基建相关的结构化债券。从二零二六年2月到4月，Blue Owl连续发生了三件事：2月中旬OBDC 2暂停季度份额回购；2月18日抛售14亿美元直接贷款资产补充流动性；4月2日一只非交易型私募信贷基金季度赎回申请达到4.999%，刚好压在5%的强制限赎线下。4月2日这次还可以说受到伊朗地缘政治事件的影响，流动性承受了一定压力，但2月那两次已经呈现出一些不对劲信号。做多A I本身没有问题，这是如今最大的趋势，链条顶端的资金供给压力还在，链条整体的增长故事还没讲完。但每一个做多动作，都要问一句：我站的这一段，付款流追到最后挂在谁的账本上。这个问题回答清楚，做多的信心和风险的位置，就都在手里了。

High Yield Investor's Samuel Smith shares his thoughts on energy, gold and silver (0:40) Context on yield (11:00) Context on dividend cuts (16:20) Updated thoughts on private credit and Blue Owl (18:30)Show Notes:Blue Owl Capital: The Market Thinks Disaster Is Coming, I Think It Is WrongInvesting Experts Live: Steven Bavaria And Samuel Smith's Top Income Picks For 2026Investing Experts' transcriptsFor full access to analyst ratings, stock and ETF quant scores, and dividend grades, subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium at seekingalpha.com/subscriptions.

Today, Paul focuses on the vast majority of American investors who are blindly trusting the industry and are now overweighted in one of the year's most poorly performing market segments. Listen along as Paul explains why overweighting in large U.S. companies has been an industry favorite for years, even though investment firms know this practice leaves investors vulnerable to numerous risks. Paul also explains how focusing your attention on the most well-known and profitable companies can actually weaken your portfolio. Later in the show, Paul shares how Blue Owl investors wake up and pull over $5 billion from the company's private equity funds.   Want to cut through the myths about retirement income and learn evidence-based strategies backed by over a century of data? Download our free Retirement Income Guide now at paulwinkler.com/relax and take the stress out of planning your retirement.   This material is for general educational purposes only and is not personalized investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing here is an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any security or strategy. All financial decisions involve risk, and you should consult qualified professionals before acting on this information. Advisory services offered through Paul Winkler, Inc., an SEC-registered investment adviser.

U.S. forces are racing to rescue a missing pilot after Iranian fire brought down two American warplanes.  Iranian media report strikes on a petrochemical zone. Ukraine strikes deals to export its drone expertise to Gulf nations. U.S. President Donald Trump has proposed surge in defense spending to $1.5 trillion. Netflix looks to build up its franchises post Warner Brothers deal. Plus, a statue-worthy rat in Cambodia.  Listen to the Morning Bid podcast ⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠. Sign up for the Reuters Econ World newsletter ⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠. Listen to the Reuters Econ World podcast ⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠. Visit the ⁠Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement⁠ for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit ⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠ to opt out of targeted advertising. Further Reading ⁠Trump fires Pam Bondi as US attorney general⁠ ⁠US Army chief of staff fired by Hegseth, sources say⁠ ⁠Trump vows to hit more Iranian infrastructure as nations seek to open Hormuz⁠ ⁠A month into war, Lebanon's prime minister says no end in sight ⁠ ⁠Blue Owl limits withdrawals from two funds after historic surge in redemption requests⁠ ⁠Artemis capsule boost puts astronauts moon-bound for record-breaking journey Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

First, we have our "subprime is contained" moment from the Fed. Second, the run on Blue Owl is "unprecedented." Third, and more important than either of those, it's ***who*** is doing the running. In its disclosure, the sad owl let slip the truth underneath more ridiculous spin. When investors demand 20% to 40% out of your top funds, it's finally time to stop pretending this is all nothing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. To watch a replay of our webinar, click below. https://youtube.com/live/dkgSJvjWs5M?feature=shareTo take advantage of our limited-time Eurodollar University subscription offer to get access to all EDU materials, reports, and data, visit the link below:https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offer----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Blue Owl Limits Redemptions on Private Credit Funds After Massive Exit Requestshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-02/blue-owl-bdcs-impose-caps-after-facing-41-22-requests-to-exitBlue Owl struck by $5.4bn of redemption requestshttps://www.ft.com/content/f4320148-3d81-4bd0-9ab6-053a5bade188?syn-25a6b1a6=1Powell: We do not see systemic risks from private credithttps://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/financial-stability/7975526/powell-we-do-not-see-systemic-risks-from-private-creditCNBC Exclusive: Transcript: Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett Speaks with CNBC's Becky Quick on “Squawk Box” Todayhttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/31/cnbc-exclusive-transcript-berkshire-hathaway-chairman-warren-buffett-speaks-with-cnbcs-becky-quick-on-squawk-box-today.htmlPrivate Credit's CLO Machine Ramps Up in Push to Raise More Cashhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-02/private-credit-s-clo-machine-ramps-up-in-push-to-raise-more-cash

U.S. President Donald Trump ousts Attorney General Pam Bondi, while Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth fires the Army's top general. The U.S. military targets civilian infrastructure in Iran as the displacement crisis in Lebanon grows. Private credit firm Blue Owl faces a historic level of redemption requests. And astronauts aboard NASA's Artemis II sort out a high-stakes plumbing problem. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast ⁠⁠here⁠⁠. Sign up for the Reuters Econ World newsletter ⁠⁠here⁠⁠. Listen to the Reuters Econ World podcast ⁠⁠here⁠⁠. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt out of targeted advertising. Further Reading Trump fires Pam Bondi as US attorney general US Army chief of staff fired by Hegseth, sources say Trump vows to hit more Iranian infrastructure as nations seek to open Hormuz A month into war, Lebanon's prime minister says no end in sight  Blue Owl limits withdrawals from two funds after historic surge in redemption requests Artemis capsule boost puts astronauts moon-bound for record-breaking journey Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

P.M. Edition for April 2. Bondi's ouster caps a tumultuous tenure as head of the Justice Department. Journal reporter Ryan Barber discusses why she's been pushed out, and who will replace her. Plus, Blue Owl—the poster child for private credit—is the latest fund to limit redemptions as investors seek to pull their money. We hear from WSJ credit reporter Matt Wirz about what this means for investors in the long and short term. And despite positive recent sales numbers from Tesla and Rivian, EV sales in the U.S. more broadly aren't rising. As big U.S. automakers have scrapped their more ambitious EV plans, dozens of EV-parts factories are sitting empty or barely used. Journal autos reporter Sharon Terlep recently visited one of these factories and tells us about what amounts to a whole new Rust Belt. Alex Ossola hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On the final day of a holiday-shortened trading week, Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber discussed stocks tumbling and crude oil prices surging in reaction to President Trump's primetime address about the Iran war. The anchors also reacted to Tesla's Q1 deliveries missing analyst forecasts. Private credit pain: Shares of Blue Owl and other alternative asset managers extended this year's steep losses, after the company said it would limit withdrawals from two of its funds. Also in focus: Elon Musk's SpaceX files for a massive IPO, AI and the backlash against data center, semiconductors rally and travel stocks slide, gasoline and diesel prices keep spiking and adding more pain at the pump. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Stocks rally on new reports that Iran is drafting a protocol with Iran to oversee the Strait of Hormuz. Then has President Trump given China a leg up ahead of the countries meeting in May? Stephen Roach, the former Chair of Morgan Stanley Asia makes the case. And fears in the private credit market drag on, with Blue Owl limiting redemptions from several funds. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Book a call: https://remnantfinance.com/calendar Out Print the Fed with 1% per week: https://remnantfinance.com/optionsEmail us at info@remnantfinance.com or visit https://remnantfinance.com for more informationFOLLOW REMNANT FINANCEYoutube: @RemnantFinance (https://www.youtube.com/@RemnantFinance)Facebook: @remnantfinance (https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61560694316588)Twitter: @remnantfinance (https://x.com/remnantfinance)TikTok: @RemnantFinanceDon't forget to hit LIKE and SUBSCRIBE_____________________________If you just buy index funds and chill, you're living on a financial fault line you don't even recognize. Most people have no idea that the shares in their 401k are being lent out to hedge funds, that their pension is invested in private credit funds currently locking investors out, and that the largest asset manager in the world is effectively in the red once you strip away goodwill and assets under management.In this episode, Hans brings back the Phoenician League's Joe Withrow to break down why the quality of your capital matters more than the quantity, a concept inspired by economist Ryan Griggs. They start by unpacking the private credit bubble, how Blue Owl gated its fund, and why the contagion risk reaches into your 401k and pension whether you know it or not. Then they walk through a scorecard of asset characteristics and make the case that true diversification means owning assets across a range of purposes, not just stocks in different industries.Chapters: 00:00 - Opening and Joe Withrow introduction 04:50 - Private credit is all over the news and here's why it matters 06:00 - Ryan Griggs and the concept: quality vs. quantity of capital 09:25 - What is private credit and how it grew from $250B to $3T 14:55 - Blue Owl gates its fund and contagion spreads 19:00 - Evergreen funds, fractional reserve dynamics, and the Ponzi comparison 23:25 - Your index fund shares are being lent to hedge funds 26:30 - Quality vs. quantity: building the asset scorecard 30:10 - Why insurance companies are the longest-surviving businesses in America 34:35 - Measuring the S&P 500 in gold: still down from 1999 39:30 - DOGE as the financial Epstein files 41:20 - Joe's equity portfolio: performance, composition, and why it's only 10-12% of his assets 49:45 - Gold, UPMA, and transporting value through time 52:25 - Bitcoin as collateral and birthing new assets from existing ones 1:00:35 - Real estate: cash flow over speculation 1:04:35 - Your home as an asset and the six-month self-sufficiency benchmark 1:10:55 - Investing is about ownership, not making more dollars 1:13:05 - BlackRock's balance sheet: the house of cards underneath $14T in AUM 1:15:25 - It's not as safe as you think to just buy VTSAX and chillKey Takeaways:Quality of capital matters more than quantity. Ryan Griggs coined the phrase, and it reframes the entire conversation. An asset that checks one box really well but leaves you exposed everywhere else is low-quality capital no matter how big the number beside it. Your financial strategy should score well across a range of attributes, not just returns.Private credit is a $2-3 trillion shadow lending market that touches your retirement whether you know it or not. Hedge funds, pensions, 401k plans, and index funds are all connected to this market. Blue Owl gated its fund entirely, and the contagion is spreading to names like Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, and BlackRock. When your money is trapped in a private credit fund, there is no FDIC and no guarantee you get it back.Your index fund shares are not just sitting there. Vanguard and other fund managers lend your shares to hedge funds for short selling and collect fees for doing it. If those hedge funds face a liquidity crisis from private credit blowing up, and they cannot return the borrowed shares, the value of your underlying portfolio takes the hit.

Tether is finally conducting an audit, and the CLARITY Act is shaping up to be a dud for stablecoins. Get your tickets to OPNEXT 2026 before prices increase! Join us on April 16 in NYC for technical discussions, investor talks, and intimate conversation with the brightest minds in Bitcoin. Welcome back to The Blockspace Podcast! Today, Jay Patel, Founder of Lygos Finance, joins us to talk about tremors in private credit markets and how they might affect bitcoin-backed credit markets, and Blockspace podcaster Gwart hops on to discuss crypto's year of soul-searching. We also dive into Tether's first-ever audit, why the banks beat crypto in the latest draft of the CLARITY Act, and the emergence of a new Bitcoin client. Finally, we break down the incredible story of the unlikely hiding place for an Irish Drug dealer's bitcoin stash. Subscribe to the newsletter! https://newsletter.blockspacemedia.com Notes: • Tether seeks first Big Four audit vs Circle. • Banks beat crypto in CLARITY Act. • Irish authorities seized 500 BTC from dealer. • Private credit faces risks as Blue Owl, others alter redemptions. • New Bitcoin client makes the “conservative case” for BTC Timestamps: 00:00 Start 02:35 Tether audit 16:30 CLARITY Act update 28:44 Gwart 47:07 Jay Patel from Lygos on Private Credit 1:02:18 New Bitcoin software client 1:12:10 Irish weed dealer's BTC gets seized

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes David Cervantes back to the show. David is the founder of Pinebrook Capital Management – a boutique asset manager focused on asset allocation and managing various systematic trading strategies.   David kicks things off by reflecting on the progress that glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) drugs have made since his last discussion at a Stansberry Research Conference several years ago. The drug has branched out of medical use into professional use and for standard weight loss, resulting in the companies he previously discussed to have performed well since then. He then discusses the current market shift from the Magnificent Seven to industrials and the S&P 493. The equal-weighted S&P 500, in particular, is beginning to outperform the Mag Seven. And David shares his thoughts on Blue Owl Capital selling its assets and what that means for the private-equity industry. (0:00)   Next, David explains where the money flowing from the Blue Owl sale is coming from and how it's connected to the banking system. If the sell-off negatively impacts banks (and by extension, the labor market comprised of voters), politicians will step in to "fix" things using whatever means necessary. David then gives his thoughts on the U.S. dollar and why he thinks that, despite skepticism and bearish outlooks, it still has what it needs to maintain its current position. And he lists how small-cap stocks have changed in how they operate and their relationship with private equity. (20:44)   Finally, David expresses why the labor market is important for the economy and for policy. Discussions he has had with experts indicate that tightening or hardening the labor market will likely result in layoffs and inflation. Following this, David details the areas that he thinks will do well, given the current market rotation and uncertainty in Iran. (41:52)

The SaaS multiples run was long, but it had to come to an end. Or Had it? Navigation: Intro Setting The Scene The Roots — This Didn’t Happen Overnight The Structural Thesis — Why This Isn’t Just A Sell-Off The Private Market Fallout The Bull Case — Is The Market Wrong? Separating The Wheat From The Chaff — Who Survives? Wrap-Up & Key Takeaways Conclusion Our co-hosts: Bertrand Schmitt, Entrepreneur in Residence at Red River West, co-founder of App Annie / Data.ai, business angel, advisor to startups and VC funds, @bschmitt Nuno Goncalves Pedro, Investor, Managing Partner, Founder at Chamaeleon, @ngpedro Our show: Tech DECIPHERED brings you the Entrepreneur and Investor views on Big Tech, VC and Start-up news, opinion pieces and research. We decipher their meaning, and add inside knowledge and context. Being nerds, we also discuss the latest gadgets and pop culture news Subscribe To Our Podcast Introduction Nuno Goncalves PedroWelcome to Episode 75 of Tech DECIPHERED, the SaaS Apocalypse: Why AI Breaks or has Broken or Broke the Software Business Model. In today’s episode, we will talk about what’s been going on in SaaS. SaaS, also known as Software as a Service, as a sector, has just had its worst month since the 2008 financial crisis. Give or take, around 1 trillion in software stock market cap has evaporated this year, and it was triggered in many ways by the rise of a lot of the things we’re seeing, in particular, agentic AI. We’ll talk about it later.One of the key triggers seems to have been the launch of Claude or Claude Cowork. There’s a lot of fears that the model that is taken as SaaS to be the darling of investors, both VCs, private equity funds, and also retail investors, has now evaporated. The sweetheart industry no longer works. Bertrand, what happened to SaaS? What’s happening? Bertrand SchmittSetting The SceneWe are in the middle of what some are calling the SaaSpocalypse. I think that was a coined term early this year. It’s pretty bad. We are recording that March 13th. Definitely January, February of this year, 2026, were really terrible. There is no question about it. Strangely enough, since the start of the war with Iran, there has been a small rebound, so we will see how it goes. But also to give some context, we are still not worse than what happened in 2022. We are still in a better place so far. I would say the difference, there is clearly a focus in terms of SaaS versus tech in general for that down term. Nuno Goncalves PedroWe’ve seen obviously a lot of things happening, right? A lot of announcements. The iShares expanded Tech-Software ETF down 25% year-to-date. Everyone seems to be running into panic, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs. Basically, Jefferies, I think, as you said, originally termed this the SaaSpocalypse. But definitely, it seems like everyone’s trying to sell stock and saying, “Hey, SaaS is going to die.” We’ve seen a lot of interesting elements to this, we’ll talk about it later, around AI eats software. Software eats the world. AI now eats software. I guess AI eats the world.But the reality is, we’ll discuss it later in the episode, it might be just a lot of stuff that’s reacting to what’s actually happening in the market, that there was a couple of misses in terms of numbers, that the growth of some of the key SaaS players that are driving a lot of the public stock wasn’t that great recently. That adding to some launches like we mentioned, the Claude Cowork launch, et cetera, has led people to say, “Hey, maybe some entire spaces of SaaS don’t make much sense going forward.” Bertrand SchmittActually, I don’t know if you noticed, but I think it was yesterday, it was announced that the CEO of Adobe just resigned. I was shocked how bad they managed the transition to AI. I guess it’s one of the first victims of what has been happening. From my perspective, and I will go deeper, but there is a bit of an overreaction. Claude is amazing as a tool, but the launch of Claude Cowork, a few plugins decimating the market, I think that’s an overreaction in the sense that many of these SaaS companies will be able to actually benefit from AI as well. Or some of the new AI tools really, really depend on the existence of an underlying SaaS layer that’s controlling some processes, some data. So I think we have to be careful about the extremes.At the same time, what is true, the growth rate has been going down for SaaS. If you look in the 2021 to these days, we move maybe from 30-11%, 12% average growth rate. It’s a dramatic difference in growth rate, and you cannot keep the same valuation when your growth rate has been divided by three. I mean, that’s just not possible.I think that there might be some overreaction about what company like Claude can truly achieve. At the same time, the reality is there that while SaaS companies are usually relatively strong companies, the growth rate has diminished, and as a result, so should the valuation.The Roots — This Didn’t Happen OvernightBut maybe we can move deeper about what happened the past 2 years about SaaS. Nuno Goncalves PedroIndeed. Some things going back as much as 2024 when Salesforce had its worst trading day. By then, in 2 decades, and went down by 20% on a rare revenue miss. So some early people, a lot of analysts, see this as an early warning of what was to come. Late last year, a huge shift as the different labs of a bunch of different players started launching agentic solutions, which in some ways started eating into a lot of the functionality, not just of vertical SaaS, but also of horizontal SaaS. As a distinction for some of our listeners who are not familiar with that distinction, vertical SaaS is normally SaaS that’s very specific to a specific industry or sub-industry or specific arena, whereas horizontal SaaS is normally SaaS that doesn’t require much adaptation to work across industries. A good example of that might be HR management systems.But basically, because of some of the early developments in those labs and a lot of the solutions that we started seeing around agentic tools, the market started being less positive on SaaS players and trying to readjust it. Those are the historic moments, 2024, 2025. Then all of a sudden, we see the growth rates of SaaS companies coming down, because obviously this doesn’t only have manifestations in the public equity markets. This has manifestations in clients.People, at this moment in time, we’ll talk about it later, are reconsidering their options. They’re like, “Why should I have a SaaS tool? Should I buy it from another player? Should I have a more holistic solution or an integration with Claude, for example? Should I develop in-house?” We’ll talk at length on what’s in customers’ minds, but customers started changing their views and stop buying some solutions that were out there from the large players that are public equities today. Bertrand SchmittYeah, it’s clear that there has been also just overall industry-wide tendency to try to cut on the SaaS subscriptions. Maybe there was too much interest buying too many software solutions, not rationalizing enough, not being careful about the spend. It makes sense that this has hurt overall SaaS growth rate. At the same time, there has been a transfer from IT spending from SaaS tools to AI, so we create a smaller budget for buying SaaS software.But going back, when you look at the change in revenue multiples, it’s crazy. In 2021, we were close to 20X EV, enterprise value to revenues. Now we are talking about 6-7X entering 2026, and we will see later on it does crunch even more. Right now, we are at 4X revenues. So from 20 to 6 to 4, and that’s the lowest in terms of multiples since 2016. That’s 10 years ago. P/E multiple for what multiples also comprise from close to 40 to close to 20.Talking about Adobe, Adobe trades at 5-year average of 30X, now at 12X. No wonder the CEO resigned. I don’t want to be mean, but I think it’s clear some CEO were very strong leading their companies into a SaaS paradigm, but were not as strong leading their company to a new AI paradigm. I think the markets are going to be brutal. If you are good at showing that you can transition to AI, you’re an important piece of the puzzle for AI, that’s one thing. But if the markets believe your products have not kept up, then it’s truly big trouble.I mean, they are not the only one. Intuit 34% decline in a month. Atlassian, minus 35 in a week. ServiceNow also down a third. They are not the only one, but definitely companies have to show some proof of either the lack of vulnerability in an AI world or their capacity to really move strong to a brand-new AI world. Nuno Goncalves PedroThe Structural Thesis — Why This Isn’t Just A Sell-OffWhat are the structural issues? Why wasn’t this just a sell-off? Why is this structurally a problem? The first thing is really around monetization and business model. SaaS 1.0 or 2.0, however we want to call it, was based on seat-based licensing. Seat-based licensing was the notion that with more employees and more users on the platform, there would be more revenue for the SaaS company. Very simple, very clear, very lucrative.Now, obviously, AI agents don’t occupy seats. An agent can do the work of 10 people, can do the work of 20 people, 30 people, 100 people, whatever it is. Therefore, if I’m a company, and I’m using agents, and not necessarily a human user, I’m not going to buy 10 licenses for the work of 10. I have one license, and it’s used by an agent that basically has access to that tool. That’s the first issue. The first issue is that the seat-based pricing, assuming humans, assuming a certain degree of productivity, et cetera, all of a sudden is under stress. Bertrand SchmittMaybe to highlight some point, not every SaaS company was focused on per-seat pricing. Me, when I led App Annie, we didn’t have a per-seat licensing or pricing at all, so we were focused on value-based pricing. But that’s true that around us, we have seen that quite a lot of your typical SaaS business was run on a per-seat pricing. Anytime there is a market downturn, you pay a dear price for your per-seat pricing. On top of it, these days, as you said, we have AI. In an AI world, the per-seat pricing model breaks down. Nuno Goncalves PedroIndeed. Now people are asking for other kinds of pricing schema, right? Either flat pricing based on certain usage patterns or, for example, outcome-based pricing. So depending on the outcome of what I’m trying to achieve, is it a booking of a sales call, is it something else? Whatever it is, I pay for that. But I do not pay for seats because that doesn’t work anymore.There have been a lot of movements around these licensing agreements and these basic elements. Some have actually now tried to create agentic licensing agreements. It’s like, “Okay, I have licensing agreements now for your agents, not for your end users.” It used to be end user licensing agreements. It’s now agentic licensing agreements. Obviously, there’s a shift.Part of the shift is, I believe people want to be in a measurement scale that is different. They don’t want just to pay for a seat. They want to pay for either specific outcomes that are very clearly measurable or have flat fees across the board on a variety of things. I think we’ll see the emergence of a couple of these business models and these monetization models more significantly. I do think we’re still to see some innovation around some of these monetization models, which will occur over the next probably few years as people are getting used to it. Okay, now it makes more sense for me to pay by this rather than by that.Again, because it’s a disruption, we’re still getting and nailing down what effectively the new monetization models and business models will look like for some of these players, but it still will be served as a service. We’ll come back to that later as well. Agents can do a lot of stuff and whatever, but it’s like agents and AI are software. AI is software, whatever you want to call it. AI is software at its base and its profound meaning and what it does, et cetera. Bertrand SchmittSeat-based pricing, usage-based pricing, yes, it’s too simple. Yes, it has its flaw. But at the same time, when the industry started, it made a lot of sense. That’s easy to manage, easy to control, at least from the SaaS company perspective. But definitely now that the industry is maturing, I can see that rise and the benefit and value of moving to an outcome-based pricing or to a value-based pricing. What I like with that also, it’s more truly win-win for both sides, for the SaaS companies as well as for the customer of the SaaS company. If you are more win-win, more aligned, I think it’s a better situation, more frictionless. I think it would be a big change.Another interesting piece of the puzzle, obviously, of all the changes we’re seeing is that one of the best assumptions in SaaS was you have 80% to 90% gross margin. If you are below 80%, there were serious questions coming your way in terms of what’s wrong with your business model as a SaaS business. Below 80% was blinking yellow light, below 70, blinking red lights. But now, it’s very different because AI-native companies, you’re expecting more a 50-60% gross margin.Obviously, if you’re SaaS companies, you better move fast to more AI-native tools and services. That will impact your margin. When you decrease so much your margins, of course, it will impact your valuation. There is no other way around that. You cannot value the same way a 90% gross margin business and a 50% gross margin business. That’s simply not reasonable. I think that one is part of the change and part of a different way to value companies. It’s very reasonable. Nuno Goncalves PedroThe first two structural issues is, one, obviously the per-seat pricing piece is potentially dying or at least becoming less pervasive in the market, added to these emerging pricing and monetization models that we just discussed, value-based, outcome-based, some usage-based pricing, some hybrid models that are also out there with some base subscriptions and then other kinds of things and tiers on top of it, either usage or outcome-based.The third big structural shift that we are seeing is, and I already alluded to it earlier, this notion of build-versus-buy. In the past, I think the market went fully into buy. In some ways, even beyond the, “I will buy one” solution that solves all the problems, we went into best in class. We went to unbundled buying: I’ll buy the best solutions for what I need in my corporation and enterprise needs.Now we’re getting a shift back into building: I’ll build my own stuff. I think a lot of it is relating to two things. One, there’s coding agents out there like Claude Code, Codex from OpenAI, and a bunch of other coding agents that have emerged. There’s a lot of solutions out there, like we mentioned already, Claude Cowork, that really managed to have agentic solutions into workflows that are deeply embedded into some of the enterprises.At the end of the day, I think there’s a lot more of this notion of, I have all my data in-house. I want to really leverage all the data I have. I don’t want to just use a third-party solution that has generic data. I want to use my data set, I want to use my stuff, and I want to basically fit that into ongoing improvements in terms of workflow.The other piece, I think, what’s happening with IT departments in some large corporations that’s leading to this build mindset rather than this buy mindset is also the notion of maybe we have too many people. How do we really express our productivity if we don’t have solutions that are at the core of our processes? If we have solutions at the core of the processes that we develop ourselves or that we develop in partnership with integrators, et cetera, but using some of these new AI platforms, we also have more visibility on the people that we can let go.Now, I know this is quite negative, but I think this has also been leading to all the layoffs that we’ve been seeing across industries recently, where people are like, “Well, I can just extract productivity.” We’ve seen some of those very visible ones. We were talking about Amazon and what’s happening at Amazon with the layoffs recently. A significant amount of layoffs recently announced.Then some other issues on the other side where apparently the junior engineers that were still working on stuff using Claude and other tools that they were using internally started breaking platforms and breaking systems. Anyway, definitely there’s a lot of that going into this build mindset. I want to have control. I want to make sure I understand where the productivity enhancements are, and that will give me more visibility on the people that I need to keep and the people that I need to let go. Bertrand SchmittI’m not so convinced about this part of the puzzle. I think that for many, AI is a convenient demand, but I’m more thinking that some companies, Amazon included, Microsoft, truly, truly over-hired in 2020, 2021. Yes, they scaled back a bit, 2022, 2023. But I don’t think they ever scaled back to what was reasonable given their needs. So it’s quite convenient to say, “No, it’s not management mistake of efficiency, it’s something new AI, and we have to adjust to that.”What I believe is true, however, is that you cannot fund both at the same time in the sense of you cannot finance an over-bloated workforce, and two, significant extremely large AI investment. At some point, these companies were faced with a choice, and they took a reasonable decision on this to be more efficient with their workforce.But personally, I think that actually the ability to do so much more with AI will make more companies think more about their teams and building things because when suddenly your engineers can be way more efficient, can build way more, the value increases. So you could argue that there is an opportunity for companies to deliver more, and as a result, I can see if you’re a good engineer, then there will be opportunities to build more value, potentially across more companies.So we might see a shift where you have more growth in software-related jobs outside the core top 10 bigger software companies, but growing more widely across your typical S&P 500 and even SMBs who could never afford to really deliver value with typical software engineering. But now suddenly, software engineering equipped with AI can be more dramatic in terms of value for them. Nuno Goncalves PedroI agree this is a scapegoat. I agreed that there’s a lot of posturing as well. If someone can lay off a significant percentage of their… It’s almost like the percentage of people you can lay off becomes your new pattern as a CEO, your new, “Basically, I’m saying right now to the market, I can cut…” I mean, Block, I think, cut off 40% of their workforce.At this point in time, seems a bit dehumanized. I think the tech companies are the worst cases, in particular because AI also does disrupt them a lot in their own processes internally. But it feels to me right now, it’s a little bit this one-upmanship of, “Okay, I can lay off more people than you can, kind of thing.” It’s precisely all the fears that a lot of people have around AI. It’s like you’re dehumanizing work. It’s like at the end of the day, people are still needed to work, et cetera. Bertrand SchmittBut I think Block might be one of these companies that completely over-hired over the past few years and never took the pill to reoptimize the business. Nuno Goncalves PedroI think we mentioned it at a previous episode that there was an estimate at some point in time that… For example, even Google had more than double the number of engineers they needed at any given point in time. So obviously, they did hoard engineering resources in other capacities. But at this point in time, it feels a little bit like up to you since being a software engineer right now is a kiss of death kind of thing. Which is weird because at the same time, we are seeing tremendous reallocation of capital overall in the industry towards infrastructure and platforms, where hyperscalers are at 660-690 billion in infrastructure CapEx for this year alone, and 75% of that being AI, where we are seeing a lot of movements around how do I budget accordingly if I’m a corporation.To your point, I think you made that point earlier, Bertrand, how if I’m the CIO of a company, do I allocate my resources more clearly, in particular, if I’m taking into account that I need to spend more money on AI and AI tooling and AI platforms. Obviously, at the end of the day, the CFOs are still there, and the CFOs are basically saying, “Hey, guys, we went into an unbundled world. We had all these agreements with all these people. I want more concentration.” At the same time, the CEO is telling me we need AI, “So whatever it is, you guys tell me what it is, but we can’t increase our budget for this stuff. We need to decrease it, and there needs to be AI in it.” Obviously, there’s a lot of reallocation also at a micro level within the corporate world. Bertrand SchmittYes, you cannot say it will be more built versus buy. At the same time, we are going to need less engineers to do the build. You see what I mean? Even with AI helping you, building which still cost you more, require more software engineering than just a buy decision. For me, what’s interesting is that not so many of these stories can be true at the same time. You require a next workforce, but at the same time, you’re going to rebuild your whole software stack from zero just because of the AI God that you just brought in from cloud. This is not reasonable, simply not reasonable. Nuno Goncalves PedroI think the thesis is that your top engineer is I think, in particular, the more senior engineers, can now do the job of 10. Therefore, what I am switching in terms of cost, I’m not saying I’m agreeing with the thesis, but the thesis is that. What I’m reallocating in terms of budget is, I’m reallocating towards spend at infrastructure platform level, on tokens, et cetera. That’s basically, I think, the thesis of what we’re seeing happening right now. Bertrand SchmittYes, but if you were just, quote, unquote, buying software, you’re not building software. You didn’t need software engineering to just buy software. Your software engineer that becomes as valuable as 10, yeah, but you had zero if you were just buying software. You see what I mean? Nuno Goncalves PedroNo, IT departments have always had engineers, the larger corporations. Yeah, for sure. Bertrand SchmittIt’s a very different game if you are moving from buying to building. It’s my point, I guess. Nuno Goncalves PedroIt is. Just to be clear, Bertrand, this whole build-versus-buy, the build is going to be done with a lot of use of outsourcing and a lot of use of service providers and a lot of use of integrators, et cetera. This whole bullshit of build-versus-buy, in effect, it’s a misnomer because at the same time, you’re going to have to hire, to your point, you’re going to have to hire companies, et cetera, to help you do this. It’s not magically that you can do it off the existing IT departments that you have. Bertrand SchmittExactly. The question will also be, is your first priority of business to rebuild Salesforce from scratch so that it better fits your internal need as a corporation because you have rebuilt from scratch with AI? I don’t think so. That for me is total overhyped bullshit. Klarna was big on that, this is total BS, quite frankly. Not only it didn’t work, but it makes zero business sense. Zero business sense. You’re not going to rebuild a CRM just for the fun of it while your software engineering could be focused on your core value proposition as a business. If you’re a company just starting, you have processes from scratch, you still don’t have solution, yeah, maybe you could consider that.But even then, is it really your priority versus building your core value proposition? For me, that’s a big question. But what I would expect, however, is that this overall trend mindset and stuff is going to keep the pressure on two software companies in terms of reducing tiers of cost, in terms of delivering more value, in terms of being more aligned to the business, and in terms of overall growth rates that are simply not the same as they used to be. Nuno Goncalves PedroBefore maybe we move to another topic, I think it’s clear, we’ll come back to that later, that there are a lot of overblown elements in this. You can never disregard a couple of very, very core elements. A lot of these software companies have very deep tooling into significant enterprise customers. You can’t just rebuild it from scratch yourself to your point. Not only does it make sense, but you can’t. It would take you years to do it. Good luck to you.Secondly, they have also distribution. They are pervasive in the market. They have sales forces. They have people that are selling out there. They have go-to-market teams. Again, we’ll talk about that in maybe one of our penultimate sections today. But maybe to move forward, we talked a lot about the public equity markets and how there’s been a reckoning by institutional and retail investors, et cetera.The Private Market FalloutBut also there’s been a private market fallout. The first one is very obvious to understand. Private equity firms loaded themselves with SaaS. Some even went after roll-up strategies in SaaS, like bringing a bunch of companies together and trying to attack a market and really getting a significant part of that. Software accounts for roughly 25% of the private credit market, which is incredible. Just that’s private credit alone, significant again. They’re loaded with a bunch of companies that have nowhere to go. They can’t IPO, nobody else is interested in buying them unless it’s for a huge write-off or write-down. That’s the first problem right now that we’re seeing in this fallout, which is the private equity market itself. Not only the buyout market, but also we saw a lot of growth funds loading themselves with private equity stock, with a rather SaaS stock, private SaaS stock.Right now, there’s nowhere for that to go. They’re stuck between rock and a hard place with a lot of solutions that are not growing at the rates they were growing before, with a public market that’s not really interesting right now to IPO in, because as we were mentioning earlier, the multiples have gone downhill dramatically, so it’s not interesting. Basically, it’s a chicken-and-egg issue. I would love to sell this now, but I can’t because I have awful market. I can’t IPO it either, so what do I do with all these assets? That’s the first issue here. Bertrand SchmittIt’s clear that you have to be pretty delusional to think that what’s happening in the software public markets is not impacting the private markets. We don’t know why it will be in six months. In six months, it could keep getting worse in the public markets. Six months, at some point, maybe there is a recognition it went too far in terms of adjustment. It’s always tough. But at the same time, you have to be prudent. For sure, what it means is that if I’m a private equity investor in a SaaS business, you have to be a very, very, very special SaaS company to get more financing these days at good terms.Sometimes it’s a very simple math. If you fundraise at 20X, even 10X, how do you go to get to another round of financing if now your multiples are at 4X? That simply makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Or you need to have grown into your valuation enough that it’s not crazy anymore. If you raise at 20X, and now you’re in 4X multiple, then you need to have grown 5X in your revenues so that you simply stay at the same valuation, or maybe you have to accept a different valuation. But again, quite frankly, the tough part would be convincing investors that it make any sense to put money in a SaaS business. Nuno Goncalves PedroJust to rub it in, just to make it even worse, the secondary market, which was a great market for exits or partial liquidations, et cetera, is demanding now huge discounts. There’s no way I’m going to buy into a stock if it’s not growing at the same pace. I’m like, “I’m sorry.” I will buy your stock at a significant discount. In some cases, it might be what would be a lesser price per share than your last round or your last two rounds. Not just, I want a discount on what you think you’re worth, but it’s like, I want a discount on your last round.Because there’s liquidity issues also in some parts of the market, we were talking just about the private equity firms, some of these deals will go through. If all of this wasn’t quite enough, we have what’s happening in venture capital, which is very close to my heart, of course, because that’s where I play. If you come to me, it’s like I’m a SaaS player immediately off the game. I’m like, “Really? You’re a SaaS, tell me more.” I was just talking to a player recently, SaaS play, there was nothing around AI in their pitch.It’s not just because you have AI in your pitch that I’m going to give you money, clear, but if you’re doing a SaaS play and there’s no AI in your pitch, I’m like, “Am I missing something?” If it looks very classic, I’m like, “Oh.” There’s been a huge, huge reduction in confidence in the VC space in investing in SaaS. There’s a tremendous hyper focus on AI, and in AI investing, AI apps, platforms, infrastructure by most VC firms at this moment in time. And so at this point in time, if you’re a non-AI SaaS player trying to raise money, where’s your AI play? I think that’s the question you’re going to get. It’s going to be very difficult to raise, very difficult to raise. Bertrand SchmittI agree with you. Myself, I saw that SaaS startups with absolutely no AI in their deck, and I was so shocked. I was like, “Guys, where are you living? Are you living in a parallel universe? Are you living under a rock? What’s going on?” Then they are like, “Yeah, but we’re preparing something like that, I come back and prepare.”But even then, as you say, it’s not just leaving AI in your deck. It’s what are your proof points? What have you delivered? How do you make sure that it’s truly differentiator? And how does it make sense versus a pure AI native companies? How are you going to find the new cloud tools that are going to get out in a few weeks and more or ChatGPT or whatever? You have to have a very different proof point. There is nothing new in the past. It’s how are you going to survive against Google? How are you going to survive against Salesforce? How are you going to survive against Microsoft? So nothing is new.Software universe is changing. There’s always that big guys that can destroy you in a matter of weeks. So the question is more, how are you going to be smart enough not to be killed too easily and to find your way in a space that’s probably moving faster than ever? That is probably the difference is that it’s weeks after weeks, you have big change. I’m pretty sure it didn’t happen in that space before because I’ve seen there, I’ve seen that, and it’s moving faster than ever. But it’s nothing new that there is this big company potentially destroying your business. You have to be smart.I feel in some ways, maybe it’s the 2020s, but people stopped being smart, quite frankly. They just raised easy at very large valuation and think that you just do something sometimes pretty basic in terms of software development and that’s good enough. Your GTM is traditional, and you think you made it, and you deserve some investment. I think you must have seen some of this. I have seen a lot of this. In some ways, it’s good. The market is becoming more discerning. Nuno Goncalves PedroThe Bull Case — Is The Market Wrong?But is the market wrong? Maybe shifting to that, at least my perspective is it’s wrong. It’s not fully wrong, but it’s wrong. There’s a right sizing of multiples, but maybe 4X is not the right multiple either. This whole 20X on actuals and 40X on forward stuff didn’t make any sense. There is an argumentation to say that the market is oversold. All the banks have come forward. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Jeffries, Morgan Stanley. Everyone’s come forward and said there’s been definitely, Bank of America, whatever, there’s been an overselling of stock, a dramatic overselling of stock. There’s been a panic that wasn’t warranted. The price has gone down too dramatically for some of these key players.I think part of it, in some ways, is what we were alluding to earlier, the fact that some of these players have built really important stacks that are fitting their customers in a significant on core processes. You can’t just rip it off and put something new. Magically, it will work. It will be around building things around it rather than building things that replace it. Will there be over the long term potential disruption of some of these players around CRM and other solutions? For sure, we’ll see it.But definitely, some of the existing players, public companies that are large, are here to stay, and they themselves will buy into these markets. They’ll acquire positions into other service providers into toolmakers, into other platforms that allow them to be fully AI-enabled and to make their platforms more AI-enabled. I do think there was a huge amount of overselling. The second thing we already alluded to as well as go-to-market. If I’m selling something to someone, there’s a salesperson involved or there are a couple of salespeople involved, they’re not going anywhere. So in some ways, that relationship building with CIOs, with their teams, with procurement teams, all of that is still there.And a lot of the large SaaS players have been doing this for decades. So they have the surface of attack and go-to-market that will take a long time to build for even some of these startups that are disrupting, so to speak, the market. My view is there has been too much panic and the modes of the large players that are already public, in some cases, haven’t been considered at all. Bertrand SchmittThere’s definitely some truth in that. Another piece of the puzzle is that if SaaS is not growing as fast as it used to be, it’s still growing. Many companies are still very good cash generation machines. Many of these companies are moving to AI full speed, improving their tools, changing how you can search their data, how you can leverage their data. They are very close to the data, so they know best how to deliver value on this data. They can integrate existing AI tools. There are a lot of ways for them to capture part of the value that native AI companies are claiming they will get. I think it’s definitely going to, and we’ll talk more later on. I think there will be a question around how do you differentiate the best SaaS companies from the worst SaaS companies in that context.But maybe I just felt we moved a bit quickly on one big event that’s shaping the software industry, it’s the current crash in private credit. Do you have some thoughts about that? Because what’s happening there is pretty crazy, to be frank. Nuno Goncalves PedroYeah, we’ve seen a lot of these players like KKR and Apollo getting slaughtered. Basically, Blue Owl, TPG, Ares, KKR all fell double this in one day on private credit exposure fears. Overall, Apollo has fell 7% as the date of as we were recording BlackRock, 5%. These guys were walking on water and all of a sudden, there was like, “What happened?” And what happened was private credit exposure. A lot of the concerns in the market is private credit is super sexy, and for those who don’t understand what it means is I’m giving credit to a private company in exchange for something, either warrants in the company or revenue sharing in the future, or I’ll get your revenues in advance from you, or I’ll take, whatever it is. There’s over exposure.There’s this potential logic that all these guys are scaling, all the companies that they give private credit to are scaling. And now there are concerns that there might be some dramatic credit in the market, that some of these companies are actually going to die, they’re going to implode, or they’re not going to really fulfill their covenants in their private credit agreements. Bertrand SchmittIt was hidden in plain sight, but that some of these private credit funds at 25, 35% exposure to software, IT, and SaaS, so a huge chunk in an industry where you bet on the long term revenues and cash flow to pay back your loans, while at the same time there is a discovery that this business may be at risk in the next three, five years or even one year because of AI.I think that was the first big chink in the armor that suddenly the creditworthiness of these companies might not have been evaluated properly. But two, it looks like there is also fraud that has been happening. I was reading stories how three, four people, accounting companies, were valuing and estimating loans for hundreds of SaaS business. Good luck, this is crazy. It looks like there is another layer to that story. Nuno Goncalves PedroWhen there are industries building a lot of wealth or apparent wealth that’s coming a little bit from out of nowhere, the likelihood that there’s fraud and things that were not properly done is, it sadly increases dramatically or exponentially. I think we’re seeing just maybe the first effects of that. Bertrand SchmittI was reading, for instance, that one of these big funds was no haircut across the portfolio, ever seen value that was 100%, whatever. One quarter after that, one of their clients going out of business and they lost everything. In three months, you move from no haircut to 100% haircut, decent enough part of your portfolio. This is crazy for a credit business. Nuno Goncalves PedroIt’s ostrich syndrome. You just put your head under the ground, and you’re like, “Hey, whatever.” I don’t know. Bertrand SchmittYeah, it’s zero mark-to-market in an industry that should be relatively conservative. This is private credit. This is not VC, this is not startup, this is not equity, this is credit, so pretty scary. Another piece was like, some of them were supposedly senior on the debt, but they were not so senior after all, this is insane. You claim seniority, but you don’t have it.My point, I think what’s happening in private credit is maybe it all started with that what’s going on, a lot of software exposure. It’s risky because of AI, but the more investor dig into it, that’s when they started to realize that maybe there is more than just that software issue. I guess, all of this is going to be an issue for software business because if suddenly you cannot get loans anymore or the loans you add, you have to pay them back or when it’s time to pay them off, you cannot renew the loan. There is nobody else to turn yourself to get another loan to replace it. That’s not going to be fun and that’s going to impact your growth rates. That could potentially also even be worse than that, be dramatic for your own business survival. Nuno Goncalves PedroMaybe now switching back to the positive part for the bull case. We think the market’s wrong, not fully, but wrong. The other side is still things move on. We’ve also had the same issues in credits in several industries in the past when markets imploded and credit came back. In some cases, it took a while. In other cases, it came back relatively quickly. One great analogy on making a bull case on why all of this stock that was sold was oversold, there’s too much stock being sold on SaaS and at prices that don’t make any sense is an analogy, precisely, for example, with retail. Amazon was going to destroy everyone their mother in 2010, and it did not. It was going to destroy Walmart. Walmart passed the $1 trillion market cap. Bertrand SchmittNot too bad. Nuno Goncalves PedroSo what happened? They adapted. They had huge advantages. They had huge advantages in terms of their customer base, presence, relationship with their suppliers, with the offerings they had, et cetera. They had huge advantages of economies of scale, and they leverage those advantages. And those advantages ultimately materialized in tremendous increase in revenue, tremendous increase in market capital as well.Amazon has done really well as well. It’s not like Amazon didn’t do well. Again, I think this notion, people sometimes have this difficulty in separating the notion of disruption from the notion of replacement. Disruption doesn’t mean necessarily full replacement. You can disrupt industries, disrupt players in that industry, and still those players will exist 10, 20 years later, and they’ll be much bigger because they adapted. The ones that don’t adapt may be killed.But the disruption doesn’t necessarily mean replacement or killing. It means just that effectively the rules of the game, the business model, which we already talked about, monetization models, the way that capital flows in that industry, et cetera, all of that shifts. It doesn’t mean that necessarily the existing players are not going to exist tomorrow. In some cases, they will exist and they’ll be even stronger tomorrow. Bertrand SchmittI think what’s happening is truly a disruption of the SaaS business model, of the SaaS valuations, of the SaaS analysis, because now you need a new prism to analyze it. What are the markets doing in the meantime? They are just dumping it, waiting for, “Okay, how do we look at it in a different way? Who are going to be the winners and the losers?” For now, we don’t care, they’re all losers. But I think that the next piece of the puzzle for us in this episode, but for the market is, how are we going to separate the wheat from the chaff? Who is going to survive? Who is going to more than just survive? Who is going to thrive in that new industry. Nuno Goncalves PedroThere I feel the ones that survive, there’s a couple of obvious ones we can go into. Two that immediately come to my mind are data infrastructure, the Snowflakes, Databricks of the world, because this is the underpinning of everything that’s happening around AI. I don’t see the data infrastructure fundamentally shifting right now. It might in the future, but right now I don’t see it fundamentally shift. Those guys have, if anything, tailwinds rather than headwinds.Then the other one that’s very obvious to me is cybersecurity, where I think AI is very additive to it rather than just necessarily replacing everything that exists. In some ways, that already been used for a while, certainly by the top players. Definitely, those are two immediate categories and areas that come to mind that have maybe more headwinds and tailwinds where really AI is adding rather than subtracting to it. Bertrand SchmittNo, I totally agree with you concerning data infrastructure, cybersecurity. You could argue if you take cybersecurity, that with the rise of AI attacks, with AI making it easier than ever to generate attacks, you better build up your security. Nuno Goncalves PedroWith AI? No, but you have to have AI on your side defending as well. The only way to defend AI is AI. Bertrand SchmittThat’s my point. Your cybersecurity vendors will become AI-enabled, will leverage AI at scale in order to defend you, else they won’t be able to defend you, just quite frankly. Nuno Goncalves PedroCorrect. Bertrand SchmittThat’s part of the game. Data infrastructure, no questions. Again, I don’t think you want to redo your infrastructure with brand-new tools, brand-new stuff is the current tools are working great and doing the job. Maybe another piece of the puzzle is that vertical SaaS, domain-specific tools, healthcare, manufacturing, if you have proprietary data, regulatory modes, it will be much harder for AI to disrupt quickly. If you are not disrupted quickly, you have more time to readjust your business model, to adjust your business model, to leverage AI to improve your business model.Again, of course, some companies, we have seen with Adobe, for instance, have not proven great skills at adjusting to AI. Not everyone is going to get out as a winner. I think some categories have better chance to actually not just survive, but potentially thrive. Another piece are systems of record. If you are holding proprietary non-scrapable data that AI needs to function, that you have deep switching costs protecting you, you are not going to disappear right away. I think you will probably survive. If you are smart enough, you might be able to even adjust and leverage AI.But I can see some might just stick to their revenues and hold companies hostage and might not innovate a lot. I guess we’ll do well on the short run, but on the medium to long I would definitely more worried. Nuno Goncalves PedroOne point I would like to make is at the end of the day, there’s more than that. The algorithmic methodologies you should use for specific industries, for specific verticals, for specific use cases could vary. We’re still very early in a lot of the application of some of these AI methodologies. We’re not early in the development of the research around them. They’ve been around for decades, but the application of them is still relatively early. I think that’s one of the advantages why vertical SaaS companies and vertical SaaS solutions right now might have an advantage, because the domain in which you’re operating, even algorithmically, is actually different, and you need to really right purpose it for those environments and for those domains.For me, that’s an important point to make. It’s not just any vertical SaaS. I think vertical SaaS, where there’s algorithmic distinctiveness, definitely has a shot at it. Other might not. We just saw a lot of discussions around legal tech and how legal tech got slaughtered with the launch of Claude Cowork, for example. Definitely, it will depend a little bit on the verticals. Bertrand SchmittTake the legal side. There has been some interesting decision recently where basically, if you use AI for legal advice, then this data, this discussion is not privileged. You are at big risk of discovery. There is a lot of issues that if you are working with real lawyers, will not be there. Your data is not discoverable, your discussion stay private, so it cannot be used against you. I think companies have to be very careful and very worried about how some of these tools are being used because it’s creating new risk. Some of these tools are not going to get privileged in the coming few months, I don’t think so.You could argue most of these companies in the first place claim a right to access your data and leverage it. I think that even in legal, it would be interesting to see how it evolved. AI will be able to claim some privilege at some point? Maybe, I don’t know. But on the short run, I can imagine how the legal profession, for instance, will not let it happen too quickly, and how you have to be very careful. It’s great to move fast, but you have to be careful with what is it that you are getting into. Nuno Goncalves PedroLet me guess, the last company you’re going to say or the last type of companies that you’re going to say are like the survive, thrive are AI-first or AI-native companies. Is that correct? Bertrand SchmittYeah, I guess. Yes. They are going to be less disrupted by AI, given that they’re already AI native. Nuno Goncalves PedroThey are AI. Bertrand SchmittWe are going into another territory. Even if you are AI-native, are you going to still get killed by Claude because you don’t have enough technology or ChatGPT because you don’t have enough technology? You are just that basic rapper around another AI tools. Here my perspective and what I share more and more with some entrepreneurs is you have to be careful if you are just an AI native company, but ultimately you are a very AI light in the sense that, yes, you are a native, but you are just reusing other LLMs and stuff, and you have not built any proprietary tech or moat with your data or in your industry. That’s going to be trouble. That’s going to be trouble.I’m not sure the market discriminated well enough at this stage, but I think there will be quickly some premium around, have you built a real technology mode? Are you really in such a situation that you are not going to get killed by a Claude or ChatGPT in a few weeks? I think there will be some discrimination that’s going to happen. Ai native won’t be enough to save you, basically. Nuno Goncalves PedroI think there’s one thing. One is what you’re saying. Is there fundamental technology differentiation and/or product differentiation that will sustain itself as a moat? The second thing is, even if it’s an AI app at a higher level, the reality is the guys that are in the market today, the OpenAIs, the Googles, the Anthropics, etc., they’re not going to address all use cases. There are places where some use cases will still exist. We saw that in the mobile app economy.In some of these use cases, you’d be like, why hasn’t, for example, Apple addressed the need for this kind of solution, whatever, and maybe it took them a decade to do it. Then, when they did it, they almost killed the market. But you have some of these AI apps that I think will still be in the market that will emerge and will address use cases that for some time, for some reason, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc., won’t go after. To Bertrand’s point, and I think importantly, if you’re an entrepreneur, if you’re writing on a very specific use case, and there’s seemingly a high likelihood that any of these players are going to address at some point, you’re not in a sustainable place. You’re not going to be around very long. Bertrand SchmittOr you have to take that initial leadership position and transform it into a deeper technology mode, a business mode. You have to leverage that first mover advantage, maybe, to something deeper than that, something more defensible. Maybe you pivot also in term of industry. You started in industry A, but you realize industry B is really the good one. You have to really optimize your way and not take anything for granted. Nuno Goncalves PedroBertrand, do you remember when it’s like every release of iOS and whatever, we were like, what industry is Apple going to kill now? What are they integrating? There was a period of time where it was literally like every big release, every major release, the yearly one, you’d be like, what industry are they going to kill now? Bertrand SchmittTotally. Totally. I think the same is happening. Definitely, we say AI, but I think some players have been smart enough to zigzag around that onslaught from Apple, from Google. But some will stay put. We think it’s not going to happen to them. Yes, they got into trouble pretty quickly. I think also what we have seen is that a lot of value could be from players who are simply more neutral and independent vis-à-vis a platform. If you need someone in the middle, your three or four mobile platform, or now your three or four LLMs or AI platforms, there might be value you can extract because companies are not… That’s another piece of the puzzle.You don’t want to just depend on Claude. You don’t know in three months, ChatGPT has a better model. You will want to make sure that whatever you are running can adjust to a change of LLM providers, for instance, or tool providers. I think, for instance, one position could be that mutual player, the one gives you the ability to adjust quickly to different technical AI development. We will see. But I think there are different strategies you can go through to make sure you end up not being killed, and that will require smart entrepreneurs. Nuno Goncalves PedroSeparating The Wheat From The Chaff — Who Survives?We talked about who survives, who doesn’t survive. Let me start with one. Or where I think will be categories that will be incredibly under attack, so a lot of players, I think, will disappear or will become very, very small. One obvious for me is anything that relates to the small, medium business markets, so very SMB-focused SaaS, a lot of regional SaaS stuff that has emerged, copycatting in certain markets because the larger players didn’t want to expand in some of those markets.I think a lot of that stuff gets just replaced because a lot of the SMB markets are price sensitive. A lot of these markets are also best effort-driven. It’s like it doesn’t need to be perfect, it just needs to do the basic stuff. Therefore, I see that market as a market that’s going to get, in all honesty, over the next 3-5 years, slaughtered. It’s not going to be rapid death, but some of them are just going to be totally replaced. Bertrand SchmittI agree with you. If you don’t have a big enough moat, if it’s very shallow, if your clients are moving quickly, you can easily switch based on a small price difference. That’s definitely trouble. Nuno Goncalves PedroI’ll let an anecdote just so people I don’t understand. Because people say, but these regional SaaS solutions normally because of their specificities to the markets and stuff like that, whatever. I literally drafted the other day an agreement, a semi-agreement relating to Portuguese law on Claude in Portuguese, from Portugal, not Brazil and Portuguese. It drafted an agreement from scratch based on my prompting, and it took into account specificities of the Portuguese legal system and taxation. Guys, it’s like, this is a freaking consumer tool. Localization of what? The tax regime and whatever? Who gives a shit? It’s like, again, I think that’s the market that definitely will get a pretty significant beating. Bertrand SchmittAnother market for me, we talk about Adobe, but content creation tools. Here, I think there is a dramatic shift in how you use them. Before you use another Photoshop to replace something in a picture, change a slightly picture stuff. Now, you just say, hey, remove this guy from the picture. Hey, replace. Hey, create that picture from scratch. I have five photo IDs, put these guys in context, put them in your meeting room, and go for it. This is such transformational versus how you used to work before that I think some of this industry is getting destroyed.There will be simply no point of using these tools anymore because something else is just 10X better. That is not even a question. You could argue there is still a niche of professionals doing stuff in an always because it guarantees a bit more higher quality or this or that. Sure. But overall, this is getting disrupted big time and the much bigger business might be totally new and totally AI native. Nuno Goncalves PedroI will do a parochial comment. We have two investments in the content creation space, one more on the marketing side and the other one more on the hardcore content creation side. They’re both AI from inception, so they’re both AI native. One of them is called LetsEnhance, the other one is called blaze.ai. I feel it’s true that there’s going to be a lot of replacement of some of the content creation tools in certain markets like consumer and prosumer, driven by the Nano Bananas of the world and all that stuff.But on the top end and in enterprise and all that stuff, we feel that AI native content creation tools are there to be. It’s actually one of the areas of what I would call use cases or AI apps/platforms where I feel being AI native will give you an advantage. Just being a cross-cut play around the market being Anthropic or OpenAI, whatever, actually won’t solve the problem for some of the markets that need to be served in. Bertrand SchmittMakes sense. I agree with you. Maybe more quickly, some point solutions, relatively high risk. If you have a single function tool, then could be easily replaced potentially by an AI agent. We already talk about it. If you are too SMB-focused, that’s not the best segment of the market, typically. Maybe you can have a single test to check if that company is at risk. If you were to replace that tool, can a $20 a month AI agent do this task? If switch it cost are low, then maybe that’s not a good business opportunity. Maybe you should not invest, or you should sell the stock.Again, maybe you have to focus more on regulated niches, hardware dependent, critical private data, solutions where there is already outcome or value-based pricing in place. You have to put some rules and analysis to help you understand, is this business at risk of significant disruption or not? Not all business are the same. As an investor, that might mean that there would be some good opportunities. SaaS businesses that are going to emerge even stronger right now are at a cheap discount. Nuno Goncalves PedroAbsolutely. I think at the end of the day, certain basic workflow tools that are out there to simplify CRM, some very basic ERP modules, anything that’s very, very simple in terms of if this then that, all those tools are also going to be slaughtered relatively soon, sadly. If you’re in that space, maybe time, as Bertrand was saying earlier, to pivot, to go after some fundamental differentiation, or to do something else. You want to conclude, Bertrand? Bertrand SchmittConclusionSure. I guess we could see that from a trade perspective, from an investor perspective. I think it’s creating quite genuinely some opportunities. Some stocks are in the bargain, some of those are value traps, so you better get your investment skills in order. PE, private credit, definitely a lot of risk, not just from AI, I think from basic fraud as well.Secondary market, as you just say, it’s not an easy one. It’s a canary in the coal mine. I think you will agree, but this is before getting between AI native versus everything else these days, especially if you are more early stage. A more established business, it’s a different thing. But right now, just starting a regular SaaS company, that’s a tough one. From an investor perspective, you need to pivot as fast as you can from seed-based pricing, hybrid, outcome-based, value-based pricing. You have to do the move quickly. You don’t want to be pushed when it’s too late.Build-versus-buy is real, and that will only accelerate as coding agents mature. Vertical specialization, proprietary data are strong moat. They were before as well, so it’s nothing new. But I think the importance of having a true moat is more critical than ever. Lots of companies have received investment with not enough moat, and that’s the one getting destroyed in the private and public market. If you have strong matrix, there is a question of when is a good time to exit? I don’t know if the relations will ever come back. I think it truly depends as well on your business, a strategic fit with acquisition opportunities.Anecdotally, I have seen some businesses who look at exit opportunities and now are finding attractive options. It’s not all that dark, I would say. Maybe to answer to the question, do we have a SaaS apocalypse? Yes and no. Some companies are going to end badly, some companies are going to emerge stronger. I think that’s it for today. Thank you, Nino. Nuno Goncalves PedroThank you, Bertrand.

Deutsche Bank. Wells Fargo. Both global systemically important banks are sitting here watching their stocks get pounded in the same way as BlackRock or Blackstone. Thankfully, not as bad as Blue Owl. Yet. And it is for the same reason. We know the private credit industry and shadow banks are in really bad shape. Markets are already looking outside of them to who might be next to have pay for really bad decisions. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Is the Sky Falling? Everywhere you turn, it seems someone is claiming that the world is coming to an end. On X, they were talking about Blackrock has limited withdrawals while Blackstone & Blue Owl also have issues. Ohio Senate President Rob McCauley didn't think it was possible to make up a $24 billion hole if property taxes get abolished while another Representative seemed surprised that local governments may have to examine their excessive spending if there are no property taxes.   We do not see the sky falling. We see states other than Ohio coming up with solutions for funding that are not as problematic as property taxes. We see that governments and schools need to cut spending. We understand that a company's contract will dictate what will happen with funds and when those events may happen.   You can listen to the legacy media repeating the same talking points and working to produce fear or you can learn to look at events with logic and see the big picture. We also talk about how Pacific Legal Foundation and the 1851 Center for Constitutional Law work every day to protect our Constitutional rights. If you want to support them, the donation links are below! https://pacificlegal.org/donate/ https://ohioconstitution.org/donate/ Sponsors: American Gold Exchange Our dealer for precious metals & the exclusive dealer of Real Power Family silver rounds. Get your first, or next bullion order from American Gold Exchange like we do. Tell them the Real Power Family sent you! Click on this link to get a FREE Starters Guide. Or Click Here to order our new Real Power Family silver rounds. 1 Troy Oz 99.99% Fine Silver Abolish Property Taxes in Ohio: www.AxOHTax.com  Get more information about abolishing all property taxes in Ohio.

Now it's Morgan Stanley's turn. Yesterday it was Cliffwater. Before that BlackRock and Blackstone. Of course Blue Owl. Morgan Stanley's $8 billion North Haven Private Income Fund becomes the latest shadow banking giant to both get hit with massive investor withdrawals and to deny most of them. Cliffwater also decided it was going to do the same. No wonder you keep hearing more and more people make 2008 comparisons – and there's one more you definitely need keep in mind. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Join us for our free webinar Thursday March 26, 2026 at 6pm ET. With credit market developments escalating even more, and major market moves accompanying them, we're going to go over where everything stands but also look forward at the potential scenarios coming out of what continues to look like a global bust. Sign up below:https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page-web----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Two high-profile cases in the public-private markets are testing boundaries and investors. ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF's stake in illiquid holdings, including SpaceX, has apparently run afoul SEC rules. Meanwhile, a high-flying alternative assets manager has changed the rules for returning investors' cash from one of its funds. And Blue Owl Capital is now facing backlash. Lessons From a Private Markets Bust: Why This ETF's Investors Missed Out on SpaceX Gains  Subscribe to the Public Meets Private newsletter. On this episode: 00:00:00 Welcome 00:01:24 How XOVR ETF Differs From Typical ETFs 00:02:11 XOVR ETF Performance Versus Broader Stock Market 00:02:48 Why XOVR's SpaceX Stake Swung Sharply 00:09:56 Blue Owl Capital's Origins and Current Problems 00:13:25 Who Invests in Blue Owl's Direct Lending Funds 00:18:09 Investor Lessons From Blue Owl's Redemption Halt Watch more from Morningstar: Are You Ready for Tax Day? Here's What You Need to Know Before You File Avoid This IRA Distribution Error to Protect Your Retirement Cash Elevate Your 60/40 Portfolio With These Simple Tweaks   Follow Morningstar on social: Facebook https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/ X https://x.com/MorningstarInc Instagram https://www.instagram.com/morningstarinc/?hl=en LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/morningstar/posts/?feedView=all Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It is a special midweek drop and the group chat is packed. This episode covers the forces quietly reshaping the economy right now — from AI slashing business costs overnight, to GLP-1 drugs gutting the snack industry, to private credit markets showing their first real cracks. The guys break down what is actually happening beneath the headlines, why sports viewership is at an all-time high, which consumer brands are quietly hitting $10 billion, and why the stock market may be setting up for a violent rally. No fluff, no filler — just the conversations happening in every serious group chat right now.   Topics Covered This Episode: 1. AI Is Replacing Your Entire Software Stack How using Claude cut one company's AWS bill from $9,500 a month down to a projected $500 — and what that means for every business owner still paying for legacy SaaS tools. Plus: Lovable jumps from a $300M to $400M run rate in a single month, and Anthropic adds $6 billion in run rate in two months. The AI economy is not coming — it is already here. 2. The GLP-1 Effect Is Hitting Corporate Earnings Campbell Soup's snack division dropped 6% in a single quarter with no obvious explanation other than 30 million Americans now on GLP-1 medications. The guys explore the downstream ripple effects — grocery aisles, fast food, supplement brands, and what retailers like Kroger do when people simply stop snacking. 3. Private Credit Is Cracking Blackstone, Blue Owl, and Cliffwater are all facing record redemption requests after two major auto suppliers backed by private credit funds went under. Is this an economy problem, a bad-lending problem, or a panic problem? The guys break it all down and explain why it matters even if you have never heard of private credit. 4. Sports Is on an Unprecedented Run Every sport — NFL, NBA, MLS, World Baseball Classic, UFC — is posting record ratings. The guys explain why gambling, fragmented media, and the death of cable news are all fueling the surge, and why the Tom Brady flag football league and the Gronk vs. Logan Paul beef are the perfect example of how modern sports entertainment actually works. 5. The $10 Billion Consumer Brands Nobody Is Talking About Quince hits a $10 billion valuation doing nearly $2 billion in revenue by going factory-direct to consumers. The guys break down why consumer investing is back, who is losing market share, and what the rise of brands like Keats and Whatnot means for traditional retail. 6. Millionaire Taxes, Fraud, and the Wealth Exodus Washington State's new 9.9% millionaire tax, the staggering scale of hospice care fraud in Los Angeles, and why billionaires — and now regular millionaires — are leaving high-tax states for Nevada, Texas, and Florida. The argument is simple: clean up the fraud first, and you would not need to raise taxes at all. 7. The Stock Market Rally Nobody Wants to Miss Goldman Sachs is calling for an extreme stock rally. The guys explain why $8.5 trillion sitting in money markets has nowhere else to go, why the US stock market is the only investable market left in the world, and why owning assets — not just earning a salary — is the only play that makes sense right now.   Group Chat News drops every week. Subscribe so you never miss the conversation.    

Send a textIf you read the headlines about Private Credit, it feels like we're on the verge of another Global Financial Crisis. So, are we?  In this Private Credit "state of the union" episode, we break down the structural differences between today's private credit market and the pre-GFC banking system, why the "private" in private credit makes it so hard to know how deep the problems actually go, and whether the knock-on effects to pensions, banks, and public markets could make this everyone's problem even if most Americans don't have direct exposure.We dig into the Blue Owl gating, redemption and markdown headlines at Blackstone and Blackrock, and what Boaz Weinstein's activist bid tells us about where these portfolios are actually worth. What's more, we ask whether the push to put private credit into 401(k)s and retail channels is democratizing wealth creation or backfilling institutional demand that's dried up. Plus: the "SaaSpocalypse" thesis, why Tuesday's record $66 billion day in IG bond issuance may be telling a very different story than private credit headlines, and more!For a 14 day FREE Trial of Macabacus, click HEREShop our Self Paced Courses: Investment Banking & Private Equity Fundamentals HEREFixed Income Sales & Trading HERE Wealthfront.com/wss. This is a paid endorsement for Wealthfront. May not reflect others' experiences. Similar outcomes not guaranteed. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. Rate subject to change. Promo terms apply. If eligible for the boosted rate of 4.15% offered in connection with this promo, the boosted rate is also subject to change if base rate decreases during the 3 month promo period.The Cash Account, which is not a deposit account, is offered by Wealthfront Brokerage LLC ("Wealthfront Brokerage"), Member FINRA/SIPC. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. The Annual Percentage Yield ("APY") on cash deposits as of 11/7/25, is representative, requires no minimum, and may change at any time. The APY reflects the weighted average of deposit balances at participating Program Banks, which are not allocated equally. Wealthfront Brokerage sweeps cash balances to Program Banks, where they earn the variable APY. Sources HERE.

The Last Trade: Jackson, Michael, and Brian break down the US military operation in the Middle East, $120 oil, bitcoin's resilience as a wartime asset, the 20M BTC supply milestone, Kraken's Fed master account, private credit cracking, and the IRS's new crypto audit form.---

"This could be one of the biggest busts we've ever seen on Wall Street," warns Chris Whalen, Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors. In this interview with Daniela Cambone, Whalen unravels how the private credit market has become a ticking time bomb for the financial system. He explains how private equity firms are purchasing insurance companies and, instead of taking a conservative approach to investing, are using cheaper Federal Home Loan Bank advances to make riskier investments, putting retirees' money in harm's way. Citing recent defaults in the sector, including issues at Blue Owl, he warns that it will be "quite a mess when it really unfolds." Whalen also offers a solution for investors, stating, "That's why metals are so important, Daniela. Metals are an act of refusal. If you invest in gold and silver or even other metals, what you're saying is you're choosing not to follow the crowd." Chapters: 00:00 The private credit is cracking06:50 Is this the end of bitcoin?08:29 Will the Fed save the market?10:04 Financial market correction12:42 Kevin Warsh is a gold guy15:32 Silver and gold growth trajectory17:52 Tariffs: what happens next? ✅ FREE RESOURCESDownload The Private Wealth Playbook — a data-backed guide to strategically acquiring gold and silver for maximum protection, privacy, and performance. Plus, get Daniela Cambone's Top 10 Lessons to safeguard your wealth (FREE)

Sean Barter rejoins the show in this episode of Grow Money Business for another spirited debate on the capital markets.  Sean and Grant take turns arguing whether bitcoin will end the year above or below $85,000, whether we'll see a 15% correction in the S&P 500 this year, whether the Fed will cut rates twice this year, and whether the easy money has already been made in the AI trade.  We also review an article covering the redemption pause at private credit manager Blue Owl Capital.   RESOURCES:   Blue Owl halts redemptions at one of its funds, deepening selloff in private equity shares By Isla Binnie reuters.com/business/blue-owl-sells-14-bln-debt-funds-pension-insurance-investors-2026-02-18/

Blue Owl's private credit redemption freeze exposes growing shadow banking risk and systemic liquidity stress in U.S. banks.Questions on Protecting Your Wealth with Gold & Silver? Schedule a Strategy Call Here ➡️ https://calendly.com/itmtrading/podcastor Call 866-349-3310

Send a textWe sat down with Ron Biscardi, the CEO and co-founder of iConnections, live at Global Alts Miami to get the skinny on what's happening with fund managers and allocators in real time. Last year, private credit was the undisputed darling of investment strategies. Now, on the heels of Blue Owl headlines and concerns about cracks within the private credit markets, headlines seem to suggest a tough road ahead.   But reality is far more nuanced. Ron synthesized both emotional reactions and hard data from investors responding to new perceived stresses in the sector in ways that might surprise you.  We also learn where smart money is pivoting, where it remains steadfast, which asset classes and investment strategies stand poised to benefit, and how allocators are positioning for highly volatile markets this year. For a 14 day FREE Trial of Macabacus, click HEREShop our Self Paced Courses: Investment Banking & Private Equity Fundamentals HEREFixed Income Sales & Trading HERE Wealthfront.com/wss. This is a paid endorsement for Wealthfront. May not reflect others' experiences. Similar outcomes not guaranteed. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. Rate subject to change. Promo terms apply. If eligible for the boosted rate of 4.15% offered in connection with this promo, the boosted rate is also subject to change if base rate decreases during the 3 month promo period.The Cash Account, which is not a deposit account, is offered by Wealthfront Brokerage LLC ("Wealthfront Brokerage"), Member FINRA/SIPC. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. The Annual Percentage Yield ("APY") on cash deposits as of 11/7/25, is representative, requires no minimum, and may change at any time. The APY reflects the weighted average of deposit balances at participating Program Banks, which are not allocated equally. Wealthfront Brokerage sweeps cash balances to Program Banks, where they earn the variable APY. Sources HERE.

Cramer breaks down the Club's strategy as markets react to Iran strikes. Become an Investing Club member to go behind the scenes with Jim Cramer and Jeff Marks every day as they talk candidly about the market's biggest headlines, analyst calls and holdings in the Charitable Trust – and see up close how they decide when, and if, to take action on stocks. Sign up here: cnbc.com/morningtake   CNBC Investing Club Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Dan Nathan hosts Peter Boockvar to discuss the rapid growth of private credit, arguing it has replaced bank lending but now faces rising defaults, potential liquidity mismatches as retail capital enters evergreen funds, and limited stress-testing in a downturn; they cite pressure in leveraged loans, gating/redemptions, and examples like Blue Owl financing tied to CoreWeave's asset-heavy model and customer concentration. They connect credit stress to equity risk via the capital structure and watchpoints like the LSTA leveraged loan index, high yield spreads, and HYG. Boockvar outlines a leadership shift away from hyperscalers toward equal-weight and “boring” sectors like energy and staples, while warning a deeper tech decline could still pull markets down. They cover oil's inflation implications, a challenging labor market, cautious consumers per Walmart/Home Depot/Lowe's, bullish long-term gold/silver dynamics, stronger international performance, and Japan's rising long-end yields affecting carry trades and global flows. Checkout Peter's SubStack: https://boockreport.com/Follow Peter on X: https://x.com/pboockvar?lang=en —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Simon and Dan kick off with a quick update on the Canadian Investor Podcast’s first YouTube Live (March 3rd at noon ET). Then it’s straight into the GoEasy saga: Q4 earnings get pushed right up near the regulatory deadline, adding to a growing list of red flags around leadership turnover and loan-book quality. Simon and Dan explain why, like poker, you can’t cherry-pick the information you like. Next, Canadian Tire shows momentum: improving comps, margin expansion, and buybacks doing the heavy lifting—plus a look at rising credit-card write-offs and how the company is using AI to sharpen promos and inventory. They also dig into Blue Owl as private credit stress goes mainstream—redemptions, asset sales, and “par value” optics in a mark-to-model world. Finally, Home Depot remains stuck in a slow renovation cycle, leaning harder into the pro/distribution channel through acquisitions as higher rates weigh on demand. Tickers discussed: GSY, CTC.A, OWL, BAM, BN, HD, BRK.B Watch the full video on Our New Youtube Channel! Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Fiscal.ai for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On episode 453 of Animal Spirits, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Michael Batnick⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ben Carlson⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ discuss the AI doom scenarios, the value of human relationships in a digital world, housing as an AI hedge, the AI backlash, a very weird stock market, the global bull market, consumers keep spending money, Bitcoin is a software stock, the Blue Owl fiasco, the perfect movie run time and more. This episode is sponsored by Betterment Advisor Solutions and ClearBridge Investments. Learn more about Betterment Advisor Solutions at: https://betterment.com/advisors  International and emerging market stocks outperformed the U.S. in 2025. At ClearBridge, we believe this momentum can continue. Find out more at https://www.clearbridge.com/ Sign up for The Compound newsletter and never miss out: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠thecompoundnews.com/subscribe⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Find complete show notes on our blogs: Ben Carlson's ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠A Wealth of Common Sense⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Michael Batnick's ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Irrelevant Investor⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Feel free to shoot us an email at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠animalspirits@thecompoundnews.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation.   Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ritholtz Wealth Management⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Broadcast live from iConnections Global Alts in South Beach, Guy Adami and Dan Nathan are joined by Dan Greenhaus of Solus Alternative Asset Management and later Vincent Daniel to discuss a sharp, risk-off market move tied to the increasingly financialized AI buildout. They review weakness across private credit and alternative lenders after reports of difficulty placing debt to fund CoreWeave's data center, spilling over into names like Blue Owl and into large alternative managers, banks, and high-profile stocks like IBM, which suffers its worst day in decades. The group debates how a viral AI “thought experiment” amplified uncertainty about near-term industry disruption, the circular quid-pro-quo dynamics of AI financing and chip demand, and whether market valuations offer any cushion if the AI narrative falters. With Nvidia reporting the next day, they focus on expectations for growth and margins, the risk that competition could compress gross margins and re-rate the stock, and the broader question of whether AI success could drive major white-collar job losses, “ghost GDP,” and policy responses. The conversation closes with Vinnie describing investor “what if” fears around AI's impact on employment and fee-based industries. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Send a textWe teamed up with Guy Adami and Dan Nathan to discuss two major developing market stories ahead of meeting in Miami for the iConnections Global Alts conference. The first topic is stress in private credit, centered on Blue Owl's retail-focused semi-liquid vehicle (Blue Owl Capital Corp II) facing heavy redemptions and gating, highlighting the liquidity mismatch between retail redemption needs and long-dated loan assets. They contrast the gated evergreen structure with Blue Owl's publicly traded BDC that was trading roughly 20% below NAV, discuss Blue Owl's reported loan sales near NAV, and explore why the issue is pressuring related stocks like Blue Owl and Blackstone despite an S&P 500 that appears indifferent. The group connects the private credit conversation to how AI/data center buildouts are financed, including references to Meta-related structures and concerns about CoreWeave's ability to raise capital for data center obligations, and notes that credit markets often reprice quickly only after complacency breaks. The second topic is prediction markets, focusing on Kalshi and its partnership with Tradeweb to publish analytics and potentially enable institutional trading of binary outcomes on events like Fed decisions and macro data, raising questions about democratized access, liquidity constraints, regulatory gaps, spoofing, and the role of insider information, along with implications for politics and whether more information is always better.For a 14 day FREE Trial of Macabacus, click HERE Visit https://iconnections.io/ to learn more about iConnections!Shop our Self Paced Courses: Investment Banking & Private Equity Fundamentals HEREFixed Income Sales & Trading HERE Wealthfront.com/wss. This is a paid endorsement for Wealthfront. May not reflect others' experiences. Similar outcomes not guaranteed. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. Rate subject to change. Promo terms apply. If eligible for the boosted rate of 4.15% offered in connection with this promo, the boosted rate is also subject to change if base rate decreases during the 3 month promo period.The Cash Account, which is not a deposit account, is offered by Wealthfront Brokerage LLC ("Wealthfront Brokerage"), Member FINRA/SIPC. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. The Annual Percentage Yield ("APY") on cash deposits as of 11/7/25, is representative, requires no minimum, and may change at any time. The APY reflects the weighted average of deposit balances at participating Program Banks, which are not allocated equally. Wealthfront Brokerage sweeps cash balances to Program Banks, where they earn the variable APY. Sources HERE.

Episode 786: Neal and Toby chat about the software stock wipeout after a report from Citrini Research said AI could be detrimental to the economy. Then, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei will meet with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to discuss the use of Claude for the US military. Also, what is Blue Owl? And why is it rattling the private credit industry? Meanwhile, Toby dives into the trend of the iPod making a comeback thanks to Gen Z.  Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.swap.fm/l/mbd-note⁠⁠⁠  Watch Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Day 2 of Fast Money Live from Miami Beach for the iConnections Global Alts Conference. Melissa & the traders dig into a wall of worry surrounding the AI trade, as JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon weighs in on investor complacency. How markets are reacting to a potential bubble brewing in the space, and the stocks to watch as concerns pile up. Plus the opportunities in private credit as Blue Owl faces a potential liquidity crunch, and if the real estate sector can continue to climb after a strong start to the year. Fast Money Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In the wake of Blue Owl's shocking announcement last week basically trapping retail investors in a private credit fund they don't want to be in, signs of fallout from it are trickling in. To begin with, private continues to sell off, Blue Owl especially. But it's not just private credit, we're seeing stress in other corners of the risky credit markets, too, which has a number of prominent analysts and observers wondering if maybe we are seeing too many signs that look too much like 2007.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by Jen Saarbach and Kristen Kelly of The Wall Street Skinny to discuss two major developing market stories ahead of meeting in Miami for the iConnections Global Alts conference. The first topic is stress in private credit, centered on Blue Owl's retail-focused semi-liquid vehicle (Blue Owl Capital Corp II) facing heavy redemptions and gating, highlighting the liquidity mismatch between retail redemption needs and long-dated loan assets. They contrast the gated evergreen structure with Blue Owl's publicly traded BDC that was trading roughly 20% below NAV, discuss Blue Owl's reported loan sales near NAV, and explore why the issue is pressuring related stocks like Blue Owl and Blackstone despite an S&P 500 that appears indifferent. The group connects the private credit conversation to how AI/data center buildouts are financed, including references to Meta-related structures and concerns about CoreWeave's ability to raise capital for data center obligations, and notes that credit markets often reprice quickly only after complacency breaks. The second topic is prediction markets, focusing on Kalshi and its partnership with Tradeweb to publish analytics and potentially enable institutional trading of binary outcomes on events like Fed decisions and macro data, raising questions about democratized access, liquidity constraints, regulatory gaps, spoofing, and the role of insider information, along with implications for politics and whether more information is always better. Show Notes 1 big thing: Trump's huge tariff loss (Axios) Blue Owl permanently halts redemptions at private credit fund aimed at retail investors (FT) Wall Street Bond-Trading Hub Tradeweb Strikes Deal With Kalshi (Bloomberg) Exclusive: Supreme Court tariff ruling makes over $175 billion in US revenue subject to refunds, Penn-Wharton estimates (Reuters) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

In this episode, Scott Becker examines Blue Owl's decision to halt retail fund redemptions, recent asset sales to meet withdrawals, and what the move signals about broader stress and exit challenges across the private credit market.

The financial media is at it again. Breathless headlines. Dire warnings. Another supposed crisis looming on the horizon. This time the target is Blue Owl, with pundits trying to convince Main Street investors that this is the spark that could ignite the next credit meltdown. But is it reality… or just another fear cycle designed to drive clicks and shake out weak hands? On this episode of Stinchfield, we dig into what is really going on behind the noise. Our guest is VRAInsider.com CEO Kip Herriage, one of the most respected market analysts in the country and a man who has seen these panic narratives play out time and time again. Kip breaks down the fundamentals, the balance sheet, and the actual exposure, explaining why the situation is being wildly mischaracterized and why Blue Owl’s ability to meet its obligations is far stronger than the headlines suggest. In short, Kip pours cold water on the hysteria and delivers straight analysis instead of sensationalism. And he does not stop there. Kip also shares two stock ideas he believes are positioned for what he calls rocket ship style growth as markets continue to reward innovation, liquidity, and smart capital deployment in this cycle. These are not speculative gambles but companies he sees as aligned with the next phase of the Trump Economic Miracle. If you are tired of being whipsawed by media driven fear and want clear eyed insight into where the risks really are and where the opportunities may be hiding, this is a conversation you do not want to miss. https://VRAInsider.com See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber reacted to a raft of economic data: Core PCE — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — rose in December, while GDP showed much slower than expected economic growth in Q4. Private credit fears also in the spotlight: Blue Owl Co-President and Head of Credit Craig Packer joined the anchors at Post 9 for a wide-ranging and exclusive interview. Also in focus: CNBC has confirmed Nvidia is in talks to invest up to $30 billion in OpenAI as part of a funding round for the startup, Oil prices hit fresh six-month highs on U.S.-Iran tensions, bright spots Cramer sees in this market, Warner Bros. Discovery update, why one particular stock plummeted — down more than 48%. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer   Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber discussed market reaction to Walmart's Q4 beat and what new CEO John Furner said on the earnings call about consumer spending. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei refused to hold hands during a group photo shoot with tech leaders at an AI summit in India. Both men spoke exclusively to CNBC: Altman on the U.S.-China AI arms race, Amodei on AI's effect on jobs. Also in focus: OpenAI's march toward a new $100 billion funding round, more pain for software stocks, Etsy jumps on the sale of second-hand fashion app Depop to eBay, Blue Owl slides on a report about redemptions, a flashback to what Jim said about Figma on the date of its stellar public debut in July 2025.   Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.