On the Margin

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The worlds of macro finance and crypto are continuing to draw closer together. On the Margin will host some of the greatest minds in the world of asset management, markets, and discuss how ideas that were once on the margin are now becoming mainstream.

Michael Ippolito | Blockworks


    • Feb 27, 2025 LATEST EPISODE
    • every other week NEW EPISODES
    • 57m AVG DURATION
    • 393 EPISODES

    Ivy Insights

    The On the Margin podcast stands out as a phenomenal show that effectively represents the viewpoints and interests of the younger generation. Unlike many financial podcasts, this podcast delves deep into relevant topics and offers a fresh perspective on various issues. The recent interview with Jurrien Timmer showcased the host's ability to tackle big themes such as economic and monetary policy, asset classes, and equity valuation. With their extensive knowledge and fantastic guests, this podcast truly sets itself apart.

    One of the best aspects of The On the Margin podcast is its ability to provide in-depth analysis and data-backed views. Hosts Michael and Tyler clearly know their stuff and do not simply throw around opinions without any substance. This dedication to providing well-researched insights is commendable and greatly enhances the quality of the podcast. Additionally, their curiosity drives engaging dialogues with guests who are experts in their respective fields. The lineup of guests is impressive, leaving listeners eagerly anticipating future episodes.

    On the downside, there is one technical issue that should be addressed: vocals panned to one side. However, this can easily be fixed during editing if the audio was recorded properly. While this may be a minor flaw, addressing it would significantly improve the listening experience.

    In conclusion, The On the Margin podcast excels at delivering informative discussions on finance and cryptocurrency while catering to a younger audience. The hosts' proficiency in their field shines through as they navigate important stories in these realms each week. It is evident that they are passionate about educating listeners and sparking curiosity about emerging technologies. As a result, this podcast has quickly become a favorite for those seeking insightful conversations backed by data and expert opinions. Whether you are new to crypto or well-versed in finance, this show is definitely worth tuning into each week for an engaging and educational experience.



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    Latest episodes from On the Margin

    The Truth About Jack Dorsey & Satoshi Nakamoto | Jameson Lopp

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 27, 2025 53:28


    In the first official episode of Supply Shock, Jameson Lopp joins the show to explain why Jack Dorsey is NOT Satoshi, threat vectors for Bitcoiners, and security prevention strategies to protect yourself. We also delve into attacker stories, how Jameson protects his own financial and physical security, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Jameson Lopp: https://x.com/lopp Follow Rizzo: https://x.com/pete_rizzo_ Follow Supply Shock: https://twitter.com/SupplyShockBW Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ The Bitcoin Historian Newsletter: https://bitcoinhistorynewsletter.com/ — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE SHOCK10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Bitcoin DeFi is here. Stake, bridge, swap and earn real yield on Core - Bitcoin's consumer chain and staking layer.  Join Ignition and get onchain: https://ignition.coredao.org/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=blockworks  Stake your Bitcoin with Core: https://stake.coredao.org/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=blockworks Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors Supply Shock. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world's crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we'll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com. Need liquidity without selling your Bitcoin? For 6+ years, Ledn has been the trusted choice for Bitcoin-backed lending. With transparency, security, and trust at our core, we help you access your BTC's wealth while HODLing. Discover what your Bitcoin can do at ledn.io/borrowing. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:01) Is Jack Dorsey Satoshi Nakamoto? (05:50) Debunking the Jack-Satoshi Theory (13:04) Ads (Core, Ledger, Ledn) (14:38) Debunking the Jack-Satoshi Theory (Con't) (31:00) The Threat Vectors for Bitcoiners (31:39) Ads (Core, Ledger, Ledn) (33:44) The Threat Vectors for Bitcoiners (Con't) (37:04) Mitigating Security Risks (49:19) Rapid Fire Questions — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Supply Shock should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Introducing: Supply Shock with The Bitcoin Historian

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 27, 2025 44:50


    A new chapter starts today. On the Margin is becoming a new show: Supply Shock, covering all things Bitcoin. Felix is back in the host seat for one last episode, passing the baton to Supply Shock's new host, Pete Rizzo AKA the Bitcoin Historian. They discuss Rizzo's deep lore, sovereign adoption of Bitcoin, and the state of Bitcoin innovation. They also delve into the rise of meme coins, the industry's future, and more. Enjoy and check out the first full episode of Supply Shock with Jameson Lopp - it's already in the feed! — Follow Rizzo: https://x.com/pete_rizzo_ Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Supply Shock: https://twitter.com/SupplyShockBW Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ The Bitcoin Historian Newsletter: https://bitcoinhistorynewsletter.com/ — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE SHOCK10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Bitcoin DeFi is here. Stake, bridge, swap and earn real yield on Core - Bitcoin's consumer chain and staking layer.  Join Ignition and get onchain: https://ignition.coredao.org/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=blockworks  Stake your Bitcoin with Core: https://stake.coredao.org/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=blockworks Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors Supply Shock. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world's crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we'll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com. Need liquidity without selling your Bitcoin? For 6+ years, Ledn has been the trusted choice for Bitcoin-backed lending. With transparency, security, and trust at our core, we help you access your BTC's wealth while HODLing. Discover what your Bitcoin can do at ledn.io/borrowing. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:04) New Show & New Host: Pete Rizzo (04:19) Bitcoin's Historical Significance (07:16) Sovereign Adoption and Bitcoin's Global Impact (13:17) Ads (Core, Ledger, Ledn) (14:49) Sovereign Adoption and Bitcoin's Global Impact (Con't) (25:56) Ads (Core, Ledger, Ledn) (28:02) Innovations and Challenges in Bitcoin (33:40) The Future of Bitcoin and Crypto — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Supply Shock should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Trading Crypto's Weekend Meltdown

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 3, 2025 59:58


    This week, we discuss crypto's liquidation event over the weekend and how to trade the upcoming week. We deep dive into the weak performance of altcoins, Bitcoin's role in a multipolar world, shorting in this market environment & more. Enjoy! -- Go follow the new 1000x feed to keep up to date with all new episodes! Spotify: https://blckwrks.co/3WADHnL Apple: https://blckwrks.co/4aEt5u0 -- Follow Avi: https://twitter.com/AviFelman Follow Jonah: https://twitter.com/jvb_xyz Follow 1000x: https://twitter.com/1000xPod Join the 1000x Telegram: https://t.me/+fz-2f0cwC6o0MWNh -- Kraken OTC unlocks premium, personalized services for high-net worth individuals and institutional clients to execute large orders. Trade over chat or access our self-service automated trading feature to receive executable quotes in seconds. Get 24/7 access to private and secure trading services and deep liquidity for competitive execution. Get in touch today: kraken.com/blockworks Availability of products may vary by jurisdiction. Not investment advice. Crypto trading involves risk of loss and is offered to US customers (excluding WA, NY and ME) through Payward Interactive, Inc. -- Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors Empire podcast. Celebrating 10 years of protecting over 20% of the world's crypto, Ledger ensures the security of your assets. For the best self-custody solution in the space, buy a LEDGER™ device and secure your crypto today. Buy now at Ledger.com -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:57) Carnage In Crypto (04:21) Shorting This Market (13:57) Ads (Kraken OTC and Ledger) (15:00) When To Buy This Market? (19:29) WIF (23:48) Privacy Coins (27:26) What's Next For Markets? (39:05) Ads (Kraken OTC and Ledger) (40:44) Bitcoin In A Multipolar World (50:16) The AI Trade -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed

    The Future Of Crypto & Stablecoins Under Trump | Austin Campbell

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 30, 2025 44:03


    In this episode, Austin Campbell joins the show to discuss stablecoin regulation under the Trump administration, the impact of Trump's executive orders on the crypto ecosystem, and the case against a strategic bitcoin reserve. We also delve into the potential for a more cooperative regulatory environment, global adoption of stablecoins, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Austin Campbell: https://x.com/CampbellJAustin Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world's crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we'll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com. MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Key Features: Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set Scalable up to 10k TPS Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3 Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ — Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:35 Stablecoin Regulation Updates Post-Election 03:27 Congressional Bills and Bipartisan Efforts 06:29 Executive Orders and David Sacks' Role 14:42 SEC vs. CFTC: Regulatory Shifts 19:24 Global Adoption and Future of Stablecoins 26:20 Debate on Strategic Bitcoin Reserve 35:52 Bitcoin's Role and Future Projections 40:58 Closing Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Fed's Tools Aren't Made For Fiscal Dominance | Lyn Alden

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 23, 2025 54:57


    In this episode, Lyn Alden joins the show to discuss the economic tensions from fiscal dominance, the major factors driving liquidity, and what to expect under the Trump presidency. We also delve into the dollar wrecking ball, the outlook for Bitcoin, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Lyn Alden: https://x.com/LynAldenContact Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world's crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we'll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com. MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Key Features: Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set Scalable up to 10k TPS Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3 Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Global Macro Outlook (02:31) Liquidity Conditions (08:44) Shifting Treasury Issuance (12:04) Ads (Ledger, Mantra) (13:11) Tensions Under Fiscal Dominance (18:32) Trump Fiscal Outlook (22:44) Cutting Rates To Zero (27:38) Energy Outlook (32:04) Ads (Ledger, Mantra) (33:36) Interview Continues (35:45) Trump Vs Reagan Approach (37:41) Dollar Wrecking Ball (42:45) Currency Negotiations (45:39) Bitcoin Big Picture (50:00) Gold Outlook (52:18) Bitcoin Outlook (54:31) Learn More About Lyn's Work — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    2025's Crypto ETF Pipeline | James Seyffart

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 16, 2025 50:29


    In this episode, James Seyffart joins the show to discuss the wild success of crypto ETFs, how allocators and holders are thinking about crypto ETFs, and all the future ETF filings in the pipeline. We also delve into the impact of ETF options on the crypto market, the ETF gap risk, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow James Seyffart: https://x.com/JSeyff Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world's crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we'll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com. MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Key Features: Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set Scalable up to 10k TPS Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3 Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:24) Bitcoin ETF Anniversary (06:29) Evolving Allocator Perspective (10:50) Largest ETF Buyers (14:40) BTC Spot-Futures Arbitrage (16:46) ETH ETFs (19:58) Ethereum Narrative Problem (21:13) New ETF Filings (26:16) Ads (27:50) Impact Of Options On Crypto (30:52) Crypto Narratives To Drive Demand (33:29) Potential Altcoin ETF Filings (38:38) ETF Gap Risk (41:12) Basket ETFs (46:17) 2025 Outlook (49:48) DAS 2025 — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    FLASH UPDATE: The Dollar Rally Isn't Over — What It Means For Risk Assets | Joe McCann

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 8, 2025 40:37


    In this episode, Joe McCann joins the show to discuss why he's tactically bearish, the US dollar's implications for risk assets, and his crypto shopping list. We also delve into bottom signals, the outlook for 2025, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Joe McCann: https://x.com/joemccann Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world's crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we'll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com. MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Key Features: Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set Scalable up to 10k TPS Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3 Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:12) Macro & Crypto Overview (09:19) Implications Of Hawkish Fed (12:54) Inauguration & The US Dollar (18:01) Ads (19:35) Crypto Market Outlook (23:34) Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (26:30) Crypto Shopping List (31:56) Bottom Signals (35:47) 2025 Outlook — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Debating The Impact Of A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve | Travis Kling

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 23, 2024 56:25


    In this episode, Travis Kling joins the show to discuss financial nihilism, the logistics of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, and the potential impact of the incoming administration. We also delve into the crypto market outlook, product market fit across the industry, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Travis Kling: https://x.com/Travis_Kling Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world's crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we'll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com. MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Key Features: Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set Scalable up to 10k TPS Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3 Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:32) Macro Outlook (06:26) Philosophical Vibe Shift (11:51) Financial Nihilism (15:52) Unpacking The Next Administration (19:24) Misaligned Incentives (22:35) Ads (23:59) Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (36:51) BSR & The US Dollar (45:42) Crypto Market Outlook (48:40) Crypto Product Market Fit (53:53) Fundamentals Bearish? (55:42) Learn More About Travis' Work — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    This Is Peak Hawkishness From The Fed | Joseph Wang

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 18, 2024 51:03


    In this special crossover episode with Forward Guidance, Joseph Wang joins the show to discuss the latest Fed decision, its December economic projections, and what to expect from markets going into 2025. We also delve into why he expects way more than two rate cuts next year, why he's bearish on US equities in 2025, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Joseph Wang: https://x.com/FedGuy12 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world's crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we'll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com. MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Key Features: Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set Scalable up to 10k TPS Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3 Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:26) Hawkish FOMC Conference (06:03) Immigration Impact (09:32) 2025 Surprises (12:16) Trump, Trade, & Tariffs (14:43) What Is The Fed Thinking? (20:07) Peak Hawkishness (21:41) Long-Term Rates (23:07) SEP As A Psychological Tool (25:16) Ads (26:41) Fed Surveys & Politics (28:29) The Neutral Rate (30:27) How The Fed Gauges Restrictiveness (32:11) Reverse Repo (37:52) Treasury Coupon Issuance (39:38) Equities & The Dollar (43:15) Gold & Crypto (45:07) Long Bonds, Commodities, & Inflation (49:42) Main Takeaways — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Convertible Bond Expert Breaks Down Why MicroStrategy Is Soaring | Richard Byworth

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 10, 2024 54:50


    In this episode, Richard Byworth joins the show to discuss MicroStrategy's convertible bond strategy, the biggest MicroStrategy misconceptions, and why he thinks the premium to NAV should expand over time. We also delve into MicroStrategy's concept of Bitcoin Yield, the risks and opportunities of Saylor's strategy, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Richard Byworth: https://x.com/RichardByworth Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world's crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we'll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com. MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Key Features: Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set Scalable up to 10k TPS Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3 Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:50) Richard Byworth And Convertible Bonds (09:45) MicroStrategy's Convertible Bond Strategy (15:28) Accretive Dilution & The Value Of A Convertible Bond (21:13) Breaking Down The Convertible Bond Trade (27:07) Ads (28:42) Risks & Opportunities In MicroStrategy's Strategy (36:55) Bitcoin Yield & Bitcoin Per Share (38:28) Leveraged Upside And Downside (42:47) MicroStrategy Index Inclusion (44:06) Biggest MicroStrategy Misconceptions (49:09) Impact Of Levered MSTR ETFs (51:52) The Changing Market Paradigm — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Everything Code: Debt, Demographics, And The Infinite Human Future | Raoul Pal

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 3, 2024 58:17


    In this episode, Raoul Pal joins the show to discuss the new revolutionary economic regime, how AI is driving the economic singularity, and the younger generation's changing perception of markets. We also delve into geopolitics, the banana zone, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Raoul Pal: https://x.com/RaoulGMI Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Join Real Vision and learn more from Raoul here: http://realvision.com/join — Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world's crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we'll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com. MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Key Features: Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set Scalable up to 10k TPS Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3 Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:19) Regime Shift (05:55) Labor Vs Debt (10:53) Setup For The New Conflict (14:19) Rethinking Business Cycles (16:42) No More Cowbell? (19:55) Scott Bessent (23:16) Geopolitics (29:27) Ads (30:43) Inflation Trend (34:15) Finding Treasury Buyers (36:42) Cynicism Vs Optimism (38:28) Macro-Crypto Intersection (45:46) Crypto's Addressable Market (49:52) Changing Perception Of Markets (54:53) The Banana Zone — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Are You Ready For The 1st Turning? | Michael Millerman

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 27, 2024 56:46


    In this episode, Michael Millerman joins the show to discuss Peter Thiel's philosophical framework, the Straussian Moment, and the post-liberalism era. We also delve into Bitcoin's role in a multipolar world, the great awakening, and much more. Enjoy! — Follo Michael Millerman: https://x.com/M_Millerman Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network's future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now's the time to join. Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world's crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we'll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com. MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Key Features: Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set Scalable up to 10k TPS Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3 Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:47) Incorporating Political Philosophy Into Investing (03:44) Michael's Background (05:06) Peter Thiel & The Straussian Moment (11:00) The Friend-Enemy Distinction (19:39) The Vulgar Vs The Wise (23:08) The Post-Liberalism Era (26:27) Ads (28:18) Interview Continues (37:32) Multipolarity & Decentralization (41:58) The Fourth Political Theory (46:16) Looking Where Others Are Not (49:48) The Great Awakening (55:01) Learn More About Michael's Work — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Everything You Need To Know About The New Bitcoin ETF Options | Jeff Park

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 21, 2024 54:40


    In this episode, Jeff Park joins the show to discuss how the new Bitcoin ETF options will impact the market, what the options trading is already telling us, and whether a gamma squeeze is likely. We also delve into the arbitrage opportunities for retail traders, how to follow the new market landscape, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Jeff Park: https://x.com/dgt10011 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network's future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now's the time to join. Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world's crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we'll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com. MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Key Features: Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set Scalable up to 10k TPS Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3 Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:50) Bitcoin ETF Options Expectations (06:14) Bitcoin's Volatility Skew (10:52) Bitcoin's Unique Supply Dynamics (14:22) Corporates Rewarded For Having Bitcoin (16:02) Biggest Options Trading Takeaways (27:30) Ads (29:20) Interview Continues (31:26) Implications On Dealers & Gamma (37:18) Impact Of Synthetic Bitcoin Through Derivatives (41:56) How Options Will Impact Market Structure (45:16) Following The New Options Landscape (48:52) The New Risk Model (52:35) Retail Opportunities — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Why Bitcoin Miners Are Pivoting To AI Data Centers | Josh Solesbury

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 11, 2024 75:44


    In this episode, Josh Solesbury joins the show to discuss the bitcoin mining landscape, the ongoing transition to AI/HPC, and the future of the industry. We also delve into industry bottlenecks, the risks of transitioning to AI, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Josh Solesbury: https://x.com/joshsolesbury Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network's future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now's the time to join. Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world's crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we'll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com. MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Key Features: Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set Scalable up to 10k TPS Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3 Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:32) Josh's Background (03:52) Overview Of The Bitcoin Mining Landscape (10:44) Bitcoin Mining Cyclicality (12:55) Industry Consolidation (16:18) Differentiating Miners (22:39) Miner Transition To AI/HPC (36:44) Ads (38:53) Miner Transition To AI/HPC (Continued) (42:09) Chips & Bottlenecks (49:18) Why Don't Miners Abandon Bitcoin For AI? (59:18) CoreWeave & Core Scientific (01:04:30) Risks To Transition To AI/HPC (01:07:55) The Future Of The Mining Industry — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    What People Get Wrong About MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Plan | Dylan LeClair

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 4, 2024 53:21


    In this episode, Dylan LeClair joins the show to discuss MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy, the insane performance of its convertible notes, and its $42 billion capital plan. We also discuss how to value MicroStrategy, the company's liquidation risk, how other companies can replicate its strategy, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Dylan LeClair: https://x.com/DylanLeClair_ Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network's future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now's the time to join. Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world's crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we'll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com. MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Key Features: Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set Scalable up to 10k TPS Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3 — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:19) MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Strategy (09:41) Who Is Buying MicroStrategy? (14:24) How To Value MicroStrategy (16:02) FASB Regulation Change (19:05) MicroStrategy's Dilution & NAV Premium (21:49) MicroStrategy's Convertible Notes (24:14) MicroStrategy's $42 Billion Capital Plan (27:14) Why Is This Strategy Accretive to Shareholders? (30:48) Advertisements (32:45) Impact Of The Capital Plan (36:11) MicroStrategy Risks (44:07) Replicating MicroStrategy's Strategy (49:09) Crypto Market Outlook — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The BTC/ETH ETF Flows Are Just Getting Started | Matt Hougan

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 17, 2024 45:53


    In this episode, Matt Hougan joins the show to discuss BTC vs ETH ETF flows, the biggest ETF misconceptions, and the importance of regulatory clarity. We also delve into the value of incorporating BTC in a portfolio, future crypto ETF strategies, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Matt Hougan: https://x.com/Matt_Hougan Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network's future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now's the time to join. Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:51) BTC vs ETH ETFs (03:18) Success of BTC ETFs (04:28) Marginal Buyers of Crypto ETFs (06:49) Lackluster ETH ETF Flows (08:45) Surprise ETH ETF Approval (09:56) Value Proposition of Ethereum (12:41) Sacrificing ETH Utility in ETF Wrapper (13:55) Crypto ETF Options (18:38) The Future of Crypto ETFs (21:51) Bitwise Filing Process (23:27) Biggest ETF Misconceptions (26:17) Advertisements (27:32) Compliance Process (29:43) Election & Regulation (33:18) Regulatory Clarity (36:03) Incorporating Bitcoin Into A Portfolio (40:00) Gold vs BTC (42:10) Crypto Market Forecasts (44:29) Learn More About Matt & Bitwise — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Economy is in Goldilocks | Ram Ahluwalia

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 15, 2024 49:25


    In this episode, Ram Ahluwalia joins the show to discuss his macro view of markets, why he thinks we're in goldilocks, and his thought process for asset allocation. We also delve into NVIDIA and AI, factor investing, and the role of risk-adjusted returns. Enjoy! — Follo Ram: https://x.com/ramahluwalia Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network's future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now's the time to join. Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:56) Ram & Lumida Wealth (02:32) Macro Overview (05:54) 50 Bps Cut Was a Mistake (07:19) Economic Goldilocks (11:27) Fed Mandate (12:33) Cutting Cycle Path (14:32) The Neutral Rate & Animal Spirits (17:05) Election Impact on Markets (18:55) Advertisements (20:11) Asset Allocation Strategies (25:27) NVIDIA & AI (28:55) Factor Investing (33:09) Mathematical Model Shortfalls (35:53) Risk-Adjusted Returns (39:24) Digital Asset Framework (45:40) Market Outlook — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Great BTC ETF Debate: Bearish or Bullish?

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 11, 2024 31:50


    In this episode, Jim Bianco and James Seyffart join Felix at Permissionless to discuss who has been buying the BTC ETFs, whether ETFs are consistent with crypto ideals, and why the BTC ETFs were more successful than the ETH ETFs. We also delve into the difference between buying to hold and arbitrage, BTC ETF options, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Jim Bianco: https://x.com/biancoresearch Follow James Seyffart: https://x.com/JSeyff Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network's future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now's the time to join. Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:49) Have Bitcoin ETFs Been A Success? (02:27) Who is Buying Bitcoin ETFs? (06:58) Are ETFs Consistent with Crypto Ideals? (11:13) Basis Trade vs Holding (15:46) Advertisements (17:21) ETH ETFs vs BTC ETFs (22:08) Bitcoin ETF Options (26:59) Crypto Ideals at Risk? — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Last Bitcoin Cycle That Matters | Charles Edwards

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 26, 2024 42:42


    In this episode, Charles Edwards joins the show to discuss why the current cycle is the last that will matter, the impact of Bitcoin ETFs, and what the on-chain data is signaling. We also delve into the approval of options on the IBIT ETF, the key top signals, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Charles Edwards: https://x.com/caprioleio Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin — Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network's future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now's the time to join. Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ — Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:04) Macro Overview (03:54) Soft Landing vs Hard Landing (06:09) Bitcoin Seasonality (09:22) Current Bitcoin Cycle Dynamics (12:57) Bitcoin Macro Index (14:41) Future Bitcoin Cycles Won't Matter (17:10) On-chain Data (19:50) Bitcoin ETFs (23:09) Ads (24:23) Interview Continues (27:38) Impact of IBIT Options (29:05) Financialization vs the Bitcoin Ethos (31:53) The Bitcoin Endgame (34:44) Leverage & Funding Rates (38:35) Top Signals — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Fed's Dilemma: Deflationary Cliff Or Debt Spiral | James Lavish

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 19, 2024 61:22


    In this episode, James and Felix discuss the latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the impact of quantitative easing & tightening, and the consequences of trillion-dollar annual deficits. We also delve into the repo market, why the Fed is disconnected from inflation, the role of hard assets like Bitcoin and gold, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow James Lavish: https://x.com/jameslavish Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin — Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network's future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now's the time to join. Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ — Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:11) Unpacking The Fed Decision & Dual Mandate (12:53) Quantitative Easing & Tightening (18:24) 2019 Repo Spike & Dollar Shortage (24:39) Trillion-Dollar Annual Deficits (36:22) Advertisements (37:36) Why The Fed is Disconnected from Inflation (44:47) Is Bitcoin the Solution? (48:46) Gold & Bitcoin As Stores of Value (53:13) Permissionless Ad (53:54) Bitcoin Use Case For Global Sovereigns (58:58) Where to Follow James' Work — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Fed Cutting Cycle Imminent, What's Next for Markets? | Weekly Roundup

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 14, 2024 68:25


    This week we discuss the split odds between a 25 and 50 basis point cut at the Fed's next meeting, market cutting cycle dynamics, and the rotation from growth to value. We also delve into the latest inflation data, rising labor productivity, and the outlook for crypto Enjoy! – Follow Ram: https://x.com/ramahluwalia Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin – Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/1XMVpZ672sX1qJV-admNYvznOPFXR737S – Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network's future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now's the time to join. Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ – Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii – Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:22) Ram's Background (03:26) 25 Bps vs 50 Bps (08:42) Inflation Data (11:01) The Economy Is Okay (12:36) Fed Opening the Door to 50 Bps Cut (16:08) Parsing the Economic Data (18:12) Labor Productivity (20:27) Ads (21:44) Chinese Economy & Red Flags (28:08) US Equities (32:02) Growth Vs Value (34:31) Factor Market (36:34) Market Rotation (44:24) Permissionless Ad (45:02) Narratives Driving Markets (48:21) Digital Assets (54:49) Bitcoin & Crypto Price Action (59:05) Hot Money Rotation (01:00:37) Cutting Cycle Dynamics – Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Breaking Down the Disconnect Between TradFi & Crypto | Austin Campbell

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 12, 2024 51:39


    In this episode, Austin Campbell joins the show to discuss the modern banking system and how crypto is driving innovation. We also delve into stablecoin designs, their role in dollar hegemony, the pros and cons across the spectrum of decentralization, and much more. Enjoy! – Follow Austin Campbell: https://x.com/CampbellJAustin Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin NYDFS Stablecoin Guidance: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/regulatory/us-regulatory-nydfs-stablecoin-guidance.pdf – MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ – Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii – Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:46) Austin's Background (03:21) Unpacking the Banking System (06:15) Money Markets & Reverse Repo (10:35) Crypto's Role in Banking (14:05) Stablecoin Designs & Reserves (22:00) What is Crypto Solving? (27:33) Mantra Ad (28:14) Spectrum of Decentralization (32:34) CBDCs (36:41) Blockchains vs Databases (40:06) Permissionless Ad (40:46) Crypto & Dollar Hegemony (44:52) Backlash to Crypto (47:46) Crypto Market Outlook – Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Fed Easing Will Match Weakness In The Labor Market | Weekly Roundup

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 7, 2024 56:49


    This week we discuss the soft jobs report and how it compares to the other data, the state of the yield curve and credit markets, and how China is bringing down commodities. We also delve into AI centralization, the outlook for Bitcoin and crypto, and much more. Enjoy! – Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin – Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GnXSyf79KLMoG5p0RRFoNBoAQUet_TOE/view?usp=sharing – Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network's future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now's the time to join. Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ – Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii – Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:37) Non-Farm Payrolls (09:52) Comparing Other Labor Market Data (12:47) The Fed's Reaction Function (17:54) The Yield Curve Uninverting (19:13) Credit Spreads & Equity Rotation (25:54) Buy What The Government Is Incentivizing (28:34) Advertisements (29:48) Tyler's AI Rant (33:25) What's Going On In China? (39:30) Flight From China (41:52) Permissionless Ad (42:32) Crypto Market Update (44:54) The Effects Of Rate Cuts (47:13) Bitcoin Downside & Outlook – Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Why The Fed Shouldn't Cut Rates | Eric Wallerstein

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 4, 2024 57:51


    In this episode, Eric Wallerstein joins the show to discuss why the labor market is cooling (not crashing), the decline in the personal savings rate, and increasing labor productivity. We also break down GDP, the credit markets, and how to rethink asset allocation in today's market. Enjoy! – Follow Eric Wallerstein: https://x.com/ericwallerstein Yardeni QuickTakes: https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/ Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin – MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ – Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii – Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) Eric's Background (03:07) The Labor Market Is Okay (08:17) Why The Fed Is So Dovish (11:08) Consumer Savings (14:22) Real Wages (16:53) Labor Productivity (20:38) Breaking Down GDP (24:08) Economic Big Picture (26:46) Mantra Ad (27:25) Risks To The Consumer (29:52) The Fed Doesn't Need To Cut (33:34) Private Credit Markets (37:08) The Fed Supporting Credit Markets (39:17) Bond Markets (41:54) Stock & Bond Correlations (44:10) Rethinking Asset Allocation (46:22) Permissionless Ad (47:02) Global Markets & The Carry Trade Unwind (49:36) Chinese Economy (52:15) Europe Doesn't Issue Debt (55:31) Key Takeaways – Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    NVIDIA Passing The Baton From Growth To Value | Weekly Roundup

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 31, 2024 67:00


    This week we discuss NVIDIA's latest earnings, the ongoing market rotation from growth to value, and the connection between credit spreads and unemployment. We also delve into the health of the consumer, the future Federal Reserve balance sheet, and Bitcoin geopolitics. Enjoy! -- On the Margin Survey: https://on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b -- Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fUP_rOgvrTDONP2DfYnJyrzgbmWFt0mP/view?usp=drive_link Kansas Fed Paper: https://www.kansascityfed.org/Jackson%20Hole/documents/10443/Anil_Kashyap_Remarks_JH.pdf – Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network's future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now's the time to join. Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ – Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 02:27 NVIDIA Earnings 08:12 Growth Vs Value 11:36 S&P 500 Earnings Growth 14:02 Yield Curve Steepening 17:40 High Yield Spreads 19:58 Credit Spreads, Unemployment & Recession 23:00 The Health Of The Consumer 29:59 Advertisements 31:14 The Future Fed Balance Sheet 37:05 Consequences Of Controlling Volatility 38:57 Central Bank Independence 41:18 Permissionless Ad 41:57 A Weaker US Dollar 44:54 Bitcoin & Geopolitics 53:19 Nobody Makes Money In Perps 56:51 Are Rate Cuts Bearish? 59:29 Will We Ever See Negative Real Rates Again? 01:02:02 Altcoins & Macro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Bull Market Will Continue Into 2025 As Liquidity Heads Higher | Michael Howell

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 28, 2024 61:28


    In this episode, Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital joins the show to discuss the uptrend in global liquidity, a possible Shanghai Accord 2 to weaken the dollar, and the relationship between debt and liquidity. We also discuss the real breakeven inflation rate, the yield curve, and why you need monetary inflation hedges. Enjoy! -- Follow Michael Howell: https://x.com/crossbordercap Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) Powell's Jackson Hole Speech (04:20) Uptrend In Global Liquidity (05:53) Global Risk Exposure (12:10) A New Shanghai Accord (18:44) Mantra Ad (19:24) Mechanics Of Yen Intervention (22:01) The Treasury Market (30:20) Breakeven Inflation Rates (32:56) Debt-To-Liquidity Ratio (35:52) Permissionless Ad (36:33) US Public Debt (40:14) Monetary Inflation Hedges (43:11) Managing Bill Issuance (47:03) Bull Vs Bear Steepener (48:50) The Structure Of Global Liquidity (50:08) The MOVE Index (53:49) Treasury Buybacks (55:06) Real Interest Rates (56:38) Equity Market & PBOC Liquidity (59:37) More Upside In Gold & BTC -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Fed Put Is In & Global Easing Has Begun | Weekly Roundup

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 24, 2024 63:54


    This week we discuss Powell's dovish Jackson Hole speech, employment outweighing inflation, and Kamala Harris' newly-proposed economic policies. We also dive into the credit markets, crypto regulation, and altcoins. Enjoy! -- On the Margin Survey: https://on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b Roundup Chart Deck: https://blckwrks.co/4dUUAj5 -- Follow Zaheer: https://x.com/SplitCapital Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin – Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network's future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now's the time to join. Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started – Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:13) Jackson Hole Speech (08:17) Employment Outweighing Inflation (09:33) Zaheer's Macro View (11:18) Housing Comeback (13:49) Polkadot Ad (14:26) Global Liquidity (18:01) Credit Isn't The Problem (23:02) New Cycle Of Investing (26:22) Kamala's Economic Policies (34:45) Permissionless Ad (35:27) Crypto Regulation (42:27) Election Impact On Crypto (44:19) Crypto Market Outlook (50:42) The Bull Market Hasn't Even Started (54:55) Altcoins (59:21) Attributes Of Value (01:01:37) Don't Fight The Fed (01:03:11) Polkadot Ad -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Generating Alpha In Macro | Capital Flows

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 21, 2024 54:42


    In this episode, Capital Flows joins the show to discuss his macro philosophy & framework, why he was bullish after the VIX surge, and his views on the yield curve. We also discuss the equity bull market, whether the Fed will allow a recession, and the key drivers of bitcoin's price. Enjoy! -- Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows Capital Flows Substack: https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/ Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:59) Capital Flows Research & Strategy (04:49) Macro Philosophy (07:48) Macro Framework (11:39) Bullish After VIX Surge (15:26) Credit & Duration Risk (18:46) Mantra Ad (19:26) Interest Rate Expectations (25:51) Bull Vs Bear Steepener (27:27) What's Priced Into The Curve (30:38) Permissionless Ad (31:17) What's Driving The Equity Bull Market (36:31) Upside Tail Risks (39:31) Will The Fed Allow An Extended Recession? (43:58) Bitcoin Price Drivers -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Has The Dust Settled? | Weekly Roundup

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 17, 2024 56:09


    This week we discuss the back and forth between recession and soft landing, the bond market's economic signals, and the Fed's measured response to the market sell-off. We also delve into the massive VIX decline, July's CPI, and the frustrating crypto market. Enjoy! -- On the Margin Survey: https://on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b -- Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin – Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:39) Schrödinger's Soft Landing (04:19) What Is The Bond Market Saying About The Economy? (06:54) The Fed Kept Its Cool (09:05) Massive VIX Decline (11:40) Will Markets Adjust To The Sell-Off? (18:06) The Role Of Flows (21:57) July CPI (24:58) What's Going On With China? (29:13) The Fed's Next Move (31:26) Market Overreaction (34:17) Bitcoin & ETFs (40:06) Frustrating Crypto Market (42:48) How Many New Balances Does Tyler Own? (44:09) What Can Stop The Fiscal Debt Spiral? (47:53) Why The BOJ Backpedaled (53:41) The Globalization Of Central Banks -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Mystery Behind The Stock Market Sell-Off | Alex Campbell

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 12, 2024 49:59


    In this episode, Alex Campbell joins the show to discuss volatility, "Magnificent Seven" concentration, and dispersion trades. We also unpack the mechanics of the carry trade, how short volatility and hedging strategies are shaping the markets, and the role of artificial intelligence in finance. Enjoy! -- Follow Alex: https://x.com/abcampbell Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:06) Market Volatility Overview (04:51) Magnificent Seven Concentration (06:24) Dispersion Trades (10:49) Market Risks & Correlations (14:09) Mantra Ad (15:15) The Carry Trade (18:14) Market Volatility Vs Credit & The Economy (23:44) Impact Of Short Volatility & Hedging On Markets (31:25) Permissionless Ad (32:04) Artificial Intelligence And Alex's Startup Rose AI (34:54) Collecting & Using Market Data (39:44) The Future Of Finance (43:46) Future Of The AI Industry (46:20) Alex's Thoughts On Crypto -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Recession vs Rebound Debate | Weekly Roundup

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 10, 2024 73:59


    This week we discuss the unwinding of the carry trade, the impact of correlations during deleveraging events, and which assets stand to benefit the most from increased liquidity and upcoming rate cuts. We also delve into the widening of credit spreads, steel man the recession argument, and examine the state of the labor market. Enjoy! -- Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network's future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now's the time to join. Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:38 Reflecting On The Market Unwind 07:41 No Asset Spared In Deleveraging Events 12:23 Polkadot Ad 13:22 Navigating Extreme Volatility 18:39 Assessing Liquitidy Signals 21:23 What Benefits The Most From Liquidity & Rate Cuts? 23:36 Looking At Credit Spreads 26:14 Steel Man-ing The Recession Argument 42:30 Permissionless Ad 43:10 State Of The Labor Market 45:38 Where Is Economic Growth? 50:37 Is The Recession On Its Way? 55:18 Crypto Market Overview 01:03:36 Biggest Trading Mistakes 01:08:26 How Much Of The Carry Trade Is Unwound -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Sahm Rule Triggered, Are We In A Recession?

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 7, 2024 46:01


    In this episode, Claudia Sahm joins the show to discuss her namesake recession indicator the Sahm Rule. We deep dive into unemployment, whether or not we are in a recession, and how the Federal Reserve should be reacting. Enjoy! -- Follow guest: https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:13) What is the Sahm Rule? (06:29) Sahm Rule Triggered (08:37) Purpose of the Sahm Rule (10:20) Are We in a Recession? (14:05) Mantra Ad (15:18) Unemployment Dynamics of the Sahm Rule (18:16) Unemployment Dynamics of a Recession (21:22) Sahm Rule 2.0 (22:56) Blame the Fed, Not the Sahm Rule (24:35) July Unemployment Report (32:10) Permissionless Ad (32:49) How the Fed Looks at the Labor Market (38:14) Should the Fed be Cutting Rates? (40:38) Are We Heading for a Hard Landing? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Why Are Markets Unwinding? | Weekly Roundup

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 2, 2024 48:06


    This week we discuss another volatile week in markets with the continuing deleveraging that took place as on the back of a data heavy week. We discuss our takeaways from FOMC, QRA, economic data & the market reaction. Enjoy! -- On the Margin Survey: https://on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b -- Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- Referenced In The Show: https://a16z.com/the-crypto-price-innovation-cycle/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:28) QRA & FOMC Takeaways (16:07) Why Are Markets Unwinding? (23:51) The Yen Carry Trade Unwind (26:11) Permissionless Ad (26:50) What's Happening In Crypto? (31:13) Coinbase Earnings (35:39) Tether Earnings -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Economy Remains Strong, Stocks Continue To Melt-Up | Danny Dayan

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 1, 2024 43:17


    In this episode, Danny Dayan joins the show to break down what he is seeing in markets post FOMC. With rate cuts expected & markets continuing to melt up, Danny makes the case for why the Fed shouldn't be cutting rates here. Enjoy! -- Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:32) FOMC Takeaway's (03:24) The Economy Is Strong, Should The Fed Cut Rates? (11:03) Mantra Ad (12:10) Why Is This Economic Cycle Different? (17:56) QRA & The QT Impact (22:08) What's The Trade? (28:27) Permissionless Ad (29:05) Stock Market Rotation & The Yen Carry Trade Unwind (37:51) What's Next For Markets? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Is It Time To Be Bullish? | Weekly Roundup

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 27, 2024 62:15


    This week we discuss the volatile week in markets with the deleveraging that took place as the Yen carry trade unwound. With markets quickly bouncing back, we discuss is it time to be bullish? We then deep dive into the launch of the ETH ETFs, the path forward for crypto & the inflation outlook. Enjoy! -- Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- Referenced In The Show: https://a16z.com/the-crypto-price-innovation-cycle/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance | Lyn Alden

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 24, 2024 48:52


    In this episode, Lyn Alden joins the show to discuss the rise of fiscal dominance & it's impact on markets in H2 2024 & beyond. We then deep dive into Bitcoin as a reserve asset, the election impact, what asset classes should perform well over the next 3-6 months & more. Enjoy! -- Follow Lyn: https://x.com/LynAldenContact Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:49) The Rate Cutting Cycle (05:09) Is The Economy Slowing? (08:51) Will We See A Recession? (11:02) The Small Cap Rotation (13:34) Mantra Ad (14:43) The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance (18:12) The Election Impact (21:34) Bitcoin As A Strategic Reserve Asset (33:13) Permissionless Ad (33:54) Oil & Energy (42:05) Stocks, Bonds & The Three Pillar Portfolio -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Stock Market & Crypto Are Turning | Weekly Roundup

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2024 66:13


    This week we discuss what is happening in crypto & traditional markets. With rate cut expectations building, are we on the verge of a massive small cap rotation? We then deep dive into the dispersion trade unwind, is crypto about to catch up to the momentum in traditional markets, the U.S election impact & more. Enjoy! -- Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    A Soft Landing Is Unrealistic | Andy Constan

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 17, 2024 38:01


    In this episode, Andy Constan joins the show for a discussion on the current state of the U.S economy & inflation continues to roll over & financial conditions remain loose. We deep dive into the outlook for stocks, bonds & markets into H2 2024. Enjoy! -- Follow Andy: https://x.com/dampedspring Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) Why The Economy Has Remained Strong (04:39) Financial Conditions Are Still Loose (11:32) Mantra Ad (12:39) Relief In The Long End Has Been Fueling A Stock Market Rally (23:01) What To Expect From The QRA? (29:24) Permissionless Ad (30:02) Alpha vs Beta -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

    What Deflation Means for Crypto, Gold and Tech | Weekly Roundup

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 13, 2024 59:21


    In this episode, we dive deep into the latest CPI data showing potential deflationary trends and explore its implications. We analyze how deflation could reshape crypto, gold, and technology stocks. We also cover the Federal Reserve's likely response, the weakening dollar, and the potential for a major market rotation from big tech to small caps and commodities. Thanks for tuning in! -- Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- Avalanche is a smart contracts platform that scales infinitely and regularly finalizes transactions in less than one second. Its novel consensus protocol, Subnet infrastructure, and HyperSDK toolkit enable Web3 developers to easily launch powerful, custom blockchain solutions. Build anything you want, any way you want, on the eco-friendly blockchain designed for Web3 devs. Start building today at https://www.avax.network/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:11) CPI & Inflation Outlook (13:05) Avalanche Ad (14:30) Equity Outlook (25:13) Labor Market Conditions (34:54) Permissionless Ad (35:34) German Gov & Mt Gox Supply Overhang (45:01) Crypto vs Gold Catch Up Trade (55:06) Evolving Politics Culture -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps:

    An Inevitable Recession? Why the Soft Landing is a Myth | Julian Brigden

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 10, 2024 57:18


    In this episode, Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners discusses the current economic landscape, challenging the prevailing optimism about a soft landing. He delves into the complexities of the labor market, the sticky nature of core service inflation, and the psychological shift in corporate pricing strategies. Brigden explores the Federal Reserve's dilemma in managing inflation without triggering a recession, and examines global economic flows and their impact on the US dollar. To close out Julian unpacks where potential may exist in the choppy market. Enjoy! -- Follow Julian Brigden: https://x.com/julianmi2 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- Avalanche is a smart contracts platform that scales infinitely and regularly finalizes transactions in less than one second. Its novel consensus protocol, Subnet infrastructure, and HyperSDK toolkit enable Web3 developers to easily launch powerful, custom blockchain solutions. Build anything you want, any way you want, on the eco-friendly blockchain designed for Web3 devs. Start building today at https://www.avax.network/ -- MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:46) Are Rate Cuts Coming? (08:54) Why Rate Cuts Might Not Come (14:46) Avalanche Ad (16:07) Mantra Ad (17:13) Why Rate Cuts Might Not Come (Continued) (20:41) 2025 Recession Outlook (29:02) Bond Market Sentiment (30:48) Permissionless Ad (31:28) Reality of Inflation (48:13) Global Market Opportunity -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Exponential Age: Liquidity Will Continue To Surge Into 2025 | Raoul Pal

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 3, 2024 54:26


    This week Raoul Pal joins the show to discuss his exponential age thesis. We deep dive into why liquidity will resurge into H2 2024, why diversification is dead, financial repression, the fourth turning & how all these factors impact markets. Enjoy! -- Follow Raoul: https://x.com/RaoulGMI Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:17) The Liquidity Cycle (09:26) Trouble In Japan's FX Market (13:00) Mantra Ad (14:06) Financial Repression (15:43) Diversification Is Dead (20:12) The Age Of Debt (27:25) Permissionless Ad (28:06) The Crypto Thesis (39:28) The Banana Zone (46:10) Changing Your Investment Framework (48:55) The Fourth Turning -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Rate Cuts Are Coming, Here's Why | Weekly Roundup

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 29, 2024 72:45


    Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX -- This week, we discuss the latest in markets after the presidential debate between Biden & Trump. We deep dive into how markets would react to a Biden vs Trump win in November, the indicators suggesting the Fed will need to cut rates soon, crypto's setup into H2 2024 & Friday's PCE print. Enjoy! -- Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_ -- Avalanche is a smart contracts platform that scales infinitely and regularly finalizes transactions in less than one second. Its novel consensus protocol, Subnet infrastructure, and HyperSDK toolkit enable Web3 developers to easily launch powerful, custom blockchain solutions. Build anything you want, any way you want, on the eco-friendly blockchain designed for Web3 devs. Start building today at https://www.avax.network/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    There's Still No Recession, Can Stocks Continue To Grind Higher? | David Cervantes

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 26, 2024 41:28


    This week David Cervantes joins the show for a discussion on the current setup for both the economy and markets heading into the second half of 2024. We discuss the recession outlook, will stocks continue to grind higher & how to make macro actionable. Enjoy! -- Follow David: https://x.com/EconstratPB Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:00) The Fed's Already Got Their Soft Landing (08:14) The Economy Is Slowing (11:34) Mantra Ad (12:44) When Will The Fed Cut Rates? (17:15) How To Make Macro Actionable (29:15) Permissionless Ad (29:54) The U.S Fiscal Dilemma (32:18) Can Stocks Continue To Rally In 2024? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Are Markets Beginning To Roll Over? | Weekly Roundup

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 22, 2024 78:49


    Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX -- This week, we discuss are markets beginning to roll over as market breadth continues to widen. We then deep dive into the U.S election impact, inflation & are we entering a growth slowdown? Enjoy! -- Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ -- Avalanche is a smart contracts platform that scales infinitely and regularly finalizes transactions in less than one second. Its novel consensus protocol, Subnet infrastructure, and HyperSDK toolkit enable Web3 developers to easily launch powerful, custom blockchain solutions. Build anything you want, any way you want, on the eco-friendly blockchain designed for Web3 devs. Start building today at https://www.avax.network/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Liquidity Will Soon Rise | Joe McCann

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 19, 2024 44:14


    This week Joe McCann joins the show for a discussion on the current backdrop for macro & crypto. As markets anticipate Fed rate cuts, will stocks & crypto continue to rally if a resurgence in liquidity is around the corner? Enjoy! -- Follow Joe: https://x.com/joemccann Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:08) Combining The Worlds Of Macro & Crypto (09:46) The Crypto Thesis (14:22) Solana (21:53) Bitcoin (25:18) Rate Cuts Are Coming (31:00) Takeaways From FOMC (39:30) Liquidity Is About To Resurge -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    What's The End Game For Inflation? | Weekly Roundup

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 15, 2024 65:25


    Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX -- This week, we discuss our takeaways from this weeks crucial CPI & PPI prints alongside the Fed's slightly hawkish FOMC meeting. We deep dive into the current market structure & discuss whether or not this rally could be about to enter a couple months of weakness? Enjoy! -- Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ -- Avalanche is a smart contracts platform that scales infinitely and regularly finalizes transactions in less than one second. Its novel consensus protocol, Subnet infrastructure, and HyperSDK toolkit enable Web3 developers to easily launch powerful, custom blockchain solutions. Build anything you want, any way you want, on the eco-friendly blockchain designed for Web3 devs. Start building today at https://www.avax.network/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Stocks Will Continue To Crush Bonds In 2024 | Joseph Wang

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 13, 2024 39:36


    This week Joseph Wang joins the show post FOMC to break down how markets are reacting to positive inflation data & Powell's press conference comments. As the U.S continues to run large fiscal deficits, Joseph outlines his thesis for why he expects stocks to continue crushing bonds in 2024 & why markets will actually crash up instead of down. Enjoy! -- Follow Joseph: https://x.com/FedGuy12 Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) FOMC Meeting Takeaways (10:30) The U.S Labour Market (12:56) Mantra Ad (14:05) Stocks Will Continue To Crush Bonds In 2024 (16:43) Rate Cuts Are Coming... And It's Bullish (19:51) Gold, Commodities & Bitcoin (23:45) Crypto's Wealth Effect (27:55) Is There A Bear Case For Equities? (30:14) Permissionless Ad (30:52) Monetary Plumbing & The QT Taper (34:32) Presidential Elections & Their Impact On Markets -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Beginning Of The Rate Cutting Cycle, Time To Be Bullish? | Weekly Roundup

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 8, 2024 62:49


    Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX -- This week, we discuss are we at the beginning of a global rate cutting cycle as the ECB, BoC & SNB have all lowered interest rates. How will this impact markets in the second half of 2024? Enjoy! -- Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ -- Avalanche is a smart contracts platform that scales infinitely and regularly finalizes transactions in less than one second. Its novel consensus protocol, Subnet infrastructure, and HyperSDK toolkit enable Web3 developers to easily launch powerful, custom blockchain solutions. Build anything you want, any way you want, on the eco-friendly blockchain designed for Web3 devs. Start building today at https://www.avax.network/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    Exploring Crypto's Modular Path | Rex & NoSleepJon

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 6, 2024 47:32


    In this special episode, the Jason and Mike announce the launch of Expansion, a new Blockworks podcast focusing on the modular blockchain ecosystem. Expansion hosts Rex and NoSleepJon aim to explore the modular design concepts and architectural principles in the blockchain space. They highlight the benefits and challenges of modularity, the cultural and technical aspects, and how this new ecosystem is poised to disrupt existing technologies. Thanks for tuning in! - - Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@expansionpod Subscribe on Apple: http://apple.co/4bGKYYM Subscribe on Spotify: http://spoti.fi/3Vaubq1 Follow Zon: https://x.com/ItsAlwaysZonny Follow Keone: https://x.com/keoneHD Follow Rex: https://x.com/LogarithmicRex Follow nosleepjon: https://x.com/nosleepjon Follow Expansion: https://x.com/ExpansionPod_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ - - Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (05:07) Modularity in Crypto (18:50) Sovereignty & ZK with Modularity (25:30) Value Accrual in Crypto (35:11) Surviving Fragmentation (43:23) Modularity Ecosystem Competition - - Disclaimer Expansion was kickstarted by a grant from the Celestia Foundation. Nothing said on Expansion is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Rex, Jon, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

    The Fed Wants To Ease, Will The Everything Rally Continue? | Warren Pies

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 5, 2024 48:37


    This episode Warren Pies Founder of 3Fourteen Research joins the show to discuss the current state of markets with oil trending lower, markets continuing to rally & a pivotal FOMC next week. Enjoy! -- Follow Warren: https://x.com/WarrenPies Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Avalanche is a smart contracts platform that scales infinitely and regularly finalizes transactions in less than one second. Its novel consensus protocol, Subnet infrastructure, and HyperSDK toolkit enable Web3 developers to easily launch powerful, custom blockchain solutions. Build anything you want, any way you want, on the eco-friendly blockchain designed for Web3 devs. Start building today at https://www.avax.network/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:23) Oil, Rates & The Global Cutting Cycle (15:58) Avalanche Ad (17:19) Mantra Ad (18:27) Inflation (25:51) What To Expect Ahead Of FOMC (32:25) Permissionless Ad (33:11) Why Did The Fed Taper QT? (39:37) The Deficit Impact (42:54) Macro Doomerism -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

    The Modular Integration Spectrum | Keone & Zon

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 5, 2024 63:50


    In this episode, Keone from Monad and Zon from Initia to discuss the spectrum between modular and integrated blockchain designs. They explore the tradeoffs in decentralization, performance and scalability between the two approaches. They explore AppChains, rollups, composability challenges in modular systems, EVM compatibility, and when to scale blockchains horizontally vs vertically. To close out Keone and Zon also share valuable insights on building Web3 communities organically. Thanks for tuning in! - - Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@expansionpod Subscribe on Apple: http://apple.co/4bGKYYM Subscribe on Spotify: http://spoti.fi/3Vaubq1 Follow Zon: https://x.com/ItsAlwaysZonny Follow Keone: https://x.com/keoneHD Follow Rex: https://x.com/LogarithmicRex Follow nosleepjon: https://x.com/nosleepjon Follow Expansion: https://x.com/ExpansionPod_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (03:24) Modular vs Integrated (11:47) Who are Appchains for? (28:58) Composability in Modular World (36:15) Monad's Endgame (39:47) Importance of Decentralization (48:05) Building Web3 Community -- Disclaimer: Expansion was kickstarted by a grant from the Celestia Foundation. Nothing said on Expansion is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Rex, Jon, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

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