Podcast appearances and mentions of John L Thornton

Một ngày trước khi bị Hoa Kỳ « bắt cóc » và đưa về New York, hôm 02/01/2025, tại phủ tổng thống Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro đã tiếp đặc sứ Trung Quốc đặc trách toàn khu vực châu Mỹ Latinh. Caracas là một cánh cửa quan trọng cho phép Bắc Kinh mở rộng ảnh hưởng khu vực sát cạnh với Washington. Trong cuộc đọ sức với Mỹ âm ỉ từ 2017 đến nay, châu lục này càng mang tính chiến lược với Trung Quốc. Chủ nợ và khách hàng lớn nhất của Venezuela « Chỉ trong vài giờ, Trung Quốc vừa mất đi một đối tác thân thiết và có lẽ là gần gũi nhất ». Chuyên gia về châu Á Marc Julienne, giám đốc điều hành trung tâm nghiên cứu Centre Asie thuộc Viện Quan Hệ Quốc Tế Pháp IFRi nhận định như trên về vụ Mỹ can thiệp vào Caracas. Còn David Wurmser, nguyên cố vấn của phó tổng thống Hoa Kỳ Dick Cheney, nhận xét với báo tài chính Nhật Niekki Asia : Bắc Kinh phải cân nhắc lại chiến lược tại châu Mỹ Latinh và ở vùng biển Caribe sau vụ Mỹ bắt giữ tổng thống Maduro, đồng thời mất các nguồn dầu của Venezuela sẽ là một « tai họa » đối với đà tăng trưởng của Trung Quốc. Năm 2024, tổng kim ngạch mậu dịch hai chiều đạt 6,4 tỷ đô la. Khoảng 70 % xuất khẩu dầu hỏa của Venezuela nhằm phục vụ thị trường Trung Quốc. Từ 2019, khi Washington ban hành lệnh cấm vận chính quyền Maduro, Trung Quốc đã trở thành khách hàng lớn nhất của Venezuela, nhất là thông qua các công ty « bình phong », giúp các đại tập đoàn năng lượng như Sinopec và PetroChina lách lệnh trừng phạt của Mỹ. Chỉ một mình Venezuela chiếm khoảng 10 % kim ngạch nhập khẩu dầu của Trung Quốc.   Theo các số liệu của cơ quan tư vấn chuyên về năng lượng Kpler, năm ngoái, Trung Quốc nhập khẩu gần 400.000 thùng dầu của Venezuela mỗi ngày, khối lượng này cao hơn 47 % so với hồi 2024 và trung bình Caracas bán cho Trung Quốc dầu với giá thấp hơn so với thị trường từ 12 đến 15 đô la/thùng. Từ đầu những năm 2000, Trung Quốc đã chú ý đến Venezuela dưới thời cố tổng thống Hugo Chavez. Với dự án Con Đường Tơ Lụa thế kỷ 21, Bắc Kinh từng bước trở thành chủ nợ chính của một đất nước đang nắm giữ gần 1/5 dự trữ dầu hỏa toàn cầu. Trong giai đoạn 2007-2013 Trung Quốc cấp 60 tỷ đô la tín dụng cho Caracas để đối lấy vàng đen, mua với giá rẻ. Mỹ gián tiếp phương hại tới quyền lợi của Trung Quốc tại Venezuela Trả lời kênh truyền hình Pháp France 24, nhà báo độc lập Paul Cabanis ghi nhận : « Chắc chắn Trung Quốc là mục tiêu Mỹ nhắm tới trong đợt can thiệp quân sự vào Caracas và đương nhiên là Washington quan tâm đến dầu hỏa của Venezuela. Đây là nơi nắm giữ 18 % dự trữ dầu của toàn thế giới, mà phần lớn còn chưa được khai thác. Từ nhiều năm qua, kinh tế Venezuela bị phong tỏa và trên nguyên tắc dầu hỏa bị cấm vận. Nhưng thực ra chính quyền Maduro vẫn bán dầu cho Cuba và nhất là cho Trung Quốc. Từ 2022, chính quyền Biden đã từng liên hệ  với Caracas, nhiều cuộc họp bí mật đã diễn ra để đưa tập đoàn dầu hỏa Chevron trở lại Venezuela ». Dầu hỏa, nhược điểm của Bắc Kinh Phát biểu chỉ vài giờ sau khi tổng thống Venezuela Nicolas Maduro và phu nhân bị dẫn độ sang Hoa Kỳ và bị tạm giam ở một nhà tù New York, nguyên thủ quốc gia Mỹ Donald Trump để ngỏ khả năng Trung Quốc tiếp tục nhận được dầu sản xuất từ Venezuela, nhưng đây mới chỉ là một tuyên bố kiểu « lời nói gió bay ». Hơn nữa, theo một số nhà phân tích, « không có gì chắc chắn là Bắc Kinh sẽ mặn mà với việc đặt trong tay Hoa Kỳ, nhất là trong bối cảnh hiện tại, một phần nhu cầu năng lượng vốn là củi lửa cho cỗ máy tăng trưởng của mình ».      Trên đài truyền hình Pháp - Đức Arte, phóng viên báo L'Humanité Luis Reygada đặc trách về khu vực châu Mỹ Latinh đưa ra một yếu tố khác cho thấy việc Mỹ can thiệp vào Venezuela tác hại đến lợi ích kinh tế của Bắc Kinh, những lợi ích không chỉ giới hạn trên lãnh thổ Venezuela : « Suốt 25 năm nay Venezuela luôn trong tầm nhắm của Hoa Kỳ. Mỹ không hài lòng từ khi Hugo Chavez (1999-2013) lên cầm quyền và giành lại quyền kiểm soát, quyền khai thác tài nguyên, đẩy các tập đoàn Mỹ ra ngoài. Cùng lúc Trung Quốc trở thành đối tác thương mại quan trọng thứ hai của toàn khu vực châu Mỹ Latinh. Bắc Kinh chăm chút cho mối quan hệ với các quốc gia trong khu vực này. Tháng năm vừa qua, Trung Quốc tổ chức thượng đỉnh tiến đón lãnh đạo 23 nước Nam Mỹ và trong vùng biển Caribe để bàn về hợp tác, đầu tư, để thảo luận về những phương án thoát khỏi ảnh hưởng của Hoa Kỳ. Từ hơn một chục năm nay, Trung Quốc tăng cường hiện diện và ảnh hưởng tại châu Mỹ Latinh. Bắc Kinh đã lôi kéo được hơn 20 quốc gia trong vùng tham gia chương trình Một Vành Đai Một Con Đường, trong số này có Brazil và Colombia. Tổng thống Mỹ Donald Trump thực sự không hài lòng chút nào trước những tiến triển nói trên ». Công nghiệp dầu hỏa Venezuela cần tiền của Trung Quốc Về phần Andreina Flores,đài Phát Thanh Quốc Tế Pháp RFI, ban tiếng Tây Ban Nha, bà giải thích việc Trung Quốc trở thành khách hàng quan trọng nhất dầu hỏa Venezuela là điều hiển nhiên: « Công nghiệp dầu hỏa của Venezuela gần như hoàn toàn sụp đổ từ nhiều năm qua. Để có thể hoạt động trở lại, để có lãi, thì trước tiên cần đầu tư rất nhiều, ước tính khoảng gần 120 tỷ đô la trong 10 năm. Số tiền quá lớn đó khiến các hãng Mỹ do dự. Hiện nay, mỗi ngày Venezuela sản xuất chưa tới 1 triệu thùng dầu, và 70 % trong số đó là để xuất sang Trung Quốc. Để so sánh, trong thập niên 1990, mỗi ngày Venezuela sản xuất hơn 3 triệu thùng dầu ». Nhà nghiên cứu về Hoa Kỳ Claire Nardon thuộc Viện Quan Hệ Quốc Tế Pháp IFRI giải thích thêm về thế thượng phong của các tập đoàn Trung Quốc trong lĩnh vực dầu hỏa Venezuela : « Mỹ khó mà đầu tư ồ ạt vào Venezuela, khó cạnh tranh nổi với các đối thủ Trung Quốc, bởi vì Trung Quốc không thiếu tiền và rất dễ dàng đầu tư ồ ạt vào châu Mỹ Latinh, cũng như vào châu Phi… Dù vậy đây không thực sự là một điều tốt với các quốc gia nhận tài trợ của của Bắc Kinh, vì Trung Quốc đối đầu tư lấy tài nguyên, dầu hỏa, kim loại của các đối tác »  … Mỹ cũng là một cường quốc dầu hỏa Về quan điểm cho rằng dầu hỏa là động lực quan trọng nhất thúc đẩy Hoa Kỳ khởi động chiến dịch quân sự cuối tuần qua nhắm vào Caracas, giới phân tích thận trọng hơn. Không ai phủ nhận Nhà Trắng đang ráo riết tìm kiếm các nguồn tài nguyên, nhưng Mỹ cũng là một quốc gia có dầu hỏa, có thêm dầu của Venezuela thì càng tốt, nhưng đấy không phải là yếu tố sống còn, mà chẳng qua chỉ là « chận đường trước mọi đối thủ » muốn lân la vào sát "sân sau" của Hoa Kỳ. Sử gia Florian Louis chuyên nghiên cứu về quan hệ quốc tế giải thích:  « Donald Trump chơi trò vừa đánh trống vừa la làng : một mặt ông có những tuyên bố nảy lửa và đẩy các nước ở châu Mỹ Latinh vào vòng tay Trung Quốc. Nhưng khi họ thân thiện và mở rộng quan hệ với Bắc Kinh thì Washington lại nổi dóa, đe dọa và trừng phạt những nước nào quá gần gũi với Trung Quốc. Đúng là châu Mỹ Latinh giàu tài nguyên thiên nhiên, giàu khoáng sản rất được Trung Quốc quan tâm. Nói rằng Mỹ nhòm ngó dầu hỏa của Venezuela chỉ đúng một phần, bởi vì bản thân Hoa Kỳ cũng có nhiều tài nguyên, dầu hỏa nhưng Mỹ chủ yếu là không muốn Trung Quốc lai vãng gần vùng lãnh thổ thuộc sân sau của mình, không muốn các tập đoàn Trung Quốc vào khai thác tài nguyên của Venezuela, nên chi bằng can thiệp trước thay vì để cho một quốc gia nào khác làm chủ tình hình ». Tuy không bằng Nga, nhưng Trung Quốc cũng là một nhà cung cấp vũ khí cho Venezuela. Báo Washington Post hồi tháng 10/2025 tiết lộ trong bối cảnh căng thẳng leo thang, Mỹ huy động tàu ngầm và tàu chiến đến vùng biển Caribe, túc trực ngoài khơi bờ biển Venezuela, chính quyền Maduro đã « khẩn cấp » yêu cầu Bắc Kinh tăng tốc hợp tác quân sự, chủ yếu là thúc đẩy tiến độ giao thiết bị radar cho Venezuela. Venezuela và 3 nguy cơ đợi chờ Trung Quốc Tạp chí tài chính Forbes số ra ngày 03/01/2025 lưu ý chiến dịch quân sự vừa qua của Hoa Kỳ đẩy Trung Quốc vào một thế kẹt dưới nhiều góc độ khác nhau : Dầu hỏa như vừa trình bày. Nhưng nguy hiểm hơn nữa là « chuỗi cung ứng của các nhà máy Trung Quốc tại châu Mỹ có nguy cơ bị xáo trộn » một khi mà xuất khẩu năng lượng của Venezuela có thể bị thay đổi « tùy theo hứng của chủ nhân Nhà Trắng » Điểm thứ hai, Trung Quốc cũng là chủ nợ chính của Venezuela hiện diện trong các lĩnh vực năng lượng và xây dựng cơ sở hạ tầng tại quốc gia Nam Mỹ này. Với gần 60 tỷ đô la tín dụng đã cấp cho Caracas dưới hai thời tổng thống Chavez và Maduro, giờ đây, khi quyền lực ở Venezuela do Hoa Kỳ « điều khiển », khoản nợ đó liệu có được hoàn trả hay không ? Chỉ riêng Ngân Hàng Phát Triển Trung Quốc đang nắm giữ từ 17 đến 19 tỷ đô la nợ của Venezuela theo thẩm định của Forbes. Cuối cùng, về mặt chiến lược và an ninh, Michael Sobolik, nghiên cứu viên cao cấp tại Viện Hudson, nhận định « toàn bộ tính toán khu vực của Trung Quốc đã bị đảo lộn », bởi vì trong nhiều năm, Đảng Cộng sản Trung Quốc coi Venezuela là bàn đạp tiến vào Tây Bán Cầu, vậy mà Hoa Kỳ đã bắt giữ Maduro chỉ vài giờ sau khi ông này tiếp đặc sứ Trung Quốc Khâu Tiến Kỳ (Qiu Xiaoqi). Hành động đó đương nhiên « vô hiệu hóa » mọi cam kết mà đặc sứ Trung Quốc có lẽ đã đưa ra với chính quyền Maduro. Dù vậy, trong mắt Ryan Hass, giám đốc Trung tâm Trung Quốc John L. Thornton tại Viện Brookings, tin vui đối với Bắc Kinh qua việc Mỹ can thiệp ở Caracas trong đêm 02/01/2026 là từ nay trở đi, Trung Quốc cũng có thể noi gương Hoa Kỳ, rộng đường hành động và sẽ cân nhắc lại những tính toán chiến lược đối với vùng eo biển Đài Loan và Biển Đông.

Peter Petri, a professor at Brandeis International Business School and a nonresident senior fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings, joins David Dollar to discuss recent developments in Asian trade agreements and to look at regional trade issues in 2022. These include CPTPP—the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership—and RCEP, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which Petri says “could be a pivotal point in economic history.” Show notes and transcript: https://brook.gs/3f0YGtI  Dollar & Sense is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Send feedback to podcasts@brookings.edu, and follow us on Twitter at @policypodcasts.

This episode we're discussing the state of US-China trade relations with David Dollar. David is a senior fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution and host of the Brookings trade podcast, Dollar&Sense.  We discuss David's reaction to USTR Katherine Tai's recent strategy outline of the US trade strategy towards China. David offers his thoughts on Tai's stance on a structured "recoupling" between the US and China, and why he believes the US should rethink its tariffs on China. We also discuss the use of reciprocity between the US and China on trade and market access issues, and on what to expect for 2022 trade talks.  

On October 15, the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings hosted Li Chunling, who presented the key findings from her new book “China's Youth” from Brookings Institution Press, and a panel discussion of leading experts who examined the implications of this exceptional generation for the country and the world.  Subscribe to Brookings Events on iTunes, send feedback email to events@brookings.edu, and follow us and tweet us at @policypodcasts on Twitter. To learn more about upcoming events, visit our website. Brookings Events is part of the Brookings Podcast Network.

On October 4, the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings hosted a panel discussion with distinguished China specialists who have contributed to an insightful new book, “Engaging China” (Columbia University Press), and offered insights into how today's policies toward China can learn from and build upon the past half-century of U.S.-China engagement. Subscribe to Brookings Events on iTunes, send feedback email to events@brookings.edu, and follow us and tweet us at @policypodcasts on Twitter. To learn more about upcoming events, visit our website. Brookings Events is part of the Brookings Podcast Network.

The new book by Cheng Li - Middle Class Shanghai: Reshaping US-China Engagement, published by Brookings was an excellent moment to bring Cheng Li into the Virtual Studio to explore the influence on the rise of the Middle Class but particularly Shanghai's middle class on China's foreign policy. There was so much to ask Cheng Li about the impact of the middle class on the Party and the Government. We will have to bring Cheng Li back but for now a real opportunity to explore Chinese foreign policy from a unique position, the transformation of political leaders, generational change, the Chinese middle class, and technological development in China. Cheng Li is the director of the John L. Thornton China Center and a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy program at Brookings. He is also a distinguished fellow at the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy, University of Toronto. And he is a director of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations. Li is the author or the editor of numerous books including most recently, “China's Political Development: Chinese and American Perspectives” (2014), “Chinese Politics in the Xi Jinping Era: Reassessing Collective Leadership” (2016), “The Power of Ideas: The Rising Influence of Thinkers and Think Tanks in China” (2017), and the just recently released, “Middle Class Shanghai: Reshaping U.S.-China Engagement”. In 1985, Cheng Li came to the United States, where he received a master's in Asian studies from the University of California, Berkeley and a doctorate in political science from Princeton University.

In his new book, “Middle Class Shanghai: Reshaping U.S.-China Engagement,” Brookings expert Cheng Li, who directs the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings, argues that American policymakers should not overlook the dynamism and diversity in present-day China, exemplified by the city of Shanghai and its expansive and cosmopolitan middle-class culture. Moreover, Li argues, Washington should neither underestimate the role or the strength of the Chinese middle class, nor alienate this force with policies that push it toward nationalism to the detriment of both countries and the global community. On this episode, Brookings Institution Press director Bill Finan talks with Li about his book, a conversation in which Li takes us from his growing up in Shanghai during the Red Terror of the Cultural Revolution; to a Chinese middle class today that enjoys the markers of a middle-class lifestyle; and even to the avant-garde art scene in that city. Also on this episode, Senior Fellow John McArthur, director of the Center for Sustainable Development, explains the “17 Rooms” initiative, an experiment launched by Brookings and The Rockefeller Foundation to stimulate new forms of discussion and action for the 17 Sustainable Development Goals. Show notes and transcript:   Follow Brookings podcasts on Apple or Google podcasts, or on Spotify. Send feedback email to , and follow us and tweet us at  on Twitter. The Brookings Cafeteria is part of the .

China is often regarded as a success story of market economics, since it began lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty once the Communist Party began easing economic restrictions and opening its economy to the world. But to this day, even though it has achieved impressive economic growth for decades, China remains a totalitarian country. So here are the key questions going forward: First, how successful will China’s mixed economy be at generating growth and innovation once the low-hanging fruit of industrialization has been picked? And second, how should the United States react to the rise of China as an economic and geopolitical competitor? Today’s episode discusses these questions with David Dollar. David Dollar is a senior fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution and host of the Brookings trade podcast, Dollar & Sense. He is also the co-editor of China 2049: Economic Challenges of a Rising Global Power, released in June of last year.

Speaker: David Dollar, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Global Economy and Development, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution China has gotten COVID-19 under control and is poised to bounce back strongly with 8% growth in 2021. But in the medium term, it faces daunting domestic and external challenges. On the domestic side, demographic shifts will result in a declining labor force and put a premium on geographic mobility, especially rural-urban migration. Also, over-reliance on investment has led to an alarming rise in debt to GDP, risking a financial crisis. To grow well while managing these issues of labor and investment will require more innovation as a source of growth. On the external side, the trade war with the U.S. is not likely to be resolved quickly with the new Biden administration. China’s recent agreements with Asian partners and Europe, however, provide new opportunities that complement domestic reforms. David Dollar is a senior fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution and host of the Brookings trade podcast, Dollar&Sense. He is a leading expert on China’s economy and U.S.-China economic relations. From 2009 to 2013, Dollar was the U.S. Treasury’s economic and financial emissary to China, based in Beijing, facilitating the macroeconomic and financial policy dialogue between the United States and China. Prior to joining Treasury, Dollar worked 20 years for the World Bank, serving as country director for China and Mongolia, based in Beijing (2004-2009). His other World Bank assignments focused on Asian economies, including South Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Bangladesh, and India. Dollar also worked in the World Bank’s research department. His publications focus on economic reform in China, globalization, and economic growth. He also taught economics at University of California Los Angeles, during which time he spent a semester in Beijing at the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in 1986. He has a doctorate in economics from New York University and a bachelor’s in Chinese history and language from Dartmouth College.

On April 12, the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings provided a venue for American policymakers and education administrators to offer perspectives on the current state of U.S.-China educational exchanges and the future direction of such programs. https://www.brookings.edu/events/do-us-china-educational-exchanges-serve-american-interests/ Subscribe to Brookings Events on iTunes, send feedback email to events@brookings.edu, and follow us and tweet us at @policypodcasts on Twitter. To learn more about upcoming events, visit our website. Brookings Events is part of the Brookings Podcast Network.

In this episode, a discussion about a new book from the Brookings Institution Press titled "Rivalry and Response: Assessing Great Power Dynamics in Southeast Asia." In this timely volume, leading experts from Southeast Asia, Australia and the United States assess great power dynamics between the U.S. and China in the region by examining the strategic landscape, domestic governance trends and economic challenges in Southeast Asia. The book's editor is Jonathan Stromseth, who hosted the Lee Kuan Yew Chair in Southeast Asian Studies and is a senior fellow in Foreign Policy, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies and the John L. Thornton China Center. Joining him on the show is one of the book's contributors, senior fellow David Dollar, who also hosts the podcast Dollar & Sense: The Brookings Trade podcast. Bill Finan, director of the Brookings Institution Press, conducts the interview. Subscribe to Brookings podcasts here or on iTunes, send feedback email to BCP@Brookings.edu, and follow us and tweet us at @policypodcasts on Twitter. The Brookings Cafeteria is part of the Brookings Podcast Network.

Speaker: Jeffrey Bader, Senior Fellow, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution Jeffrey Bader is a senior fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. From 2009 until 2011, Bader was special assistant to the president of the United States for national security affairs at the National Security Council. In that capacity, he was the principal advisor to President Obama on Asia. Bader served from 2005 to 2009 as the director of the China Initiative and, subsequently, as the first director of the opens in a new windowJohn L. Thornton China Center. During his three decade career with the U.S. government, Bader was principally involved in U.S.-China relations at the State Department, the National Security Council, and the Office of the United States Trade Representative. In 2001, as assistant U.S. trade representative, he led the United States delegation in completing negotiations on the accession of China and Taiwan into the World Trade Organization. Bader served as a Foreign Service officer in the People’s Republic of China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Namibia, Zambia, Congo, and the United States Mission to the United Nations. During the 1990s, he was deputy assistant secretary of state responsible for China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia; director of Asian affairs at the National Security Council; and director of the State Department’s Office of Chinese Affairs. He served as U.S. ambassador to Namibia from 1999 to 2001. Bader is the author of opens in a new window“Obama and China’s Rise: An Insider’s Account of America’s Asia Strategy,” published in 2012 by Brookings Institution Press. He is president and sole proprietor of Jeffrey Bader LLC, which provides assistance to companies with interests in Asia. Bader received a bachelor’s degree from Yale University and a master’s and doctorate in European history from Columbia University. He speaks Chinese and French. Please note, Jeffrey A. Bader is not associated with the Joe Biden for President Campaign.

On Thursday, October 15, the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings hosted an online discussion with a bipartisan group of policymakers on China exploring how leading political figures at each level of U.S. government approach these questions. https://www.brookings.edu/events/assessing-china-policy-from-city-halls-governors-mansions-and-capitol-hill/ Subscribe to Brookings Events on iTunes, send feedback email to events@brookings.edu, and follow us and tweet us at @policypodcasts on Twitter. To learn more about upcoming events, visit our website. Brookings Events is part of the Brookings Podcast Network.

Fault Lines welcomes David Dollar, Senior Fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. How should we think about the trade deficit with China? Is decoupling possible? How should we think about the Belt and Road Initiative? David and host Lester Munson, answer these questions and many more on this week’s episode of Fault Lines! See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

The world of international affairs, government, and education has never been more interesting with Ryan McElveen! Join us on our next step in this career journey and take a listen to learn about all the amazing advice he has for students today, and how they can make an impact in today's day and age! Ryan McElveen's Excel Tip: Creativity is key. When you take the chance to be creative and make an impact in your community, the opportunities are endless. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app

On BNAP Today with Mike Ryan, we catch up with David Dollar, a senior fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution and host of the Brookings trade podcast, Dollar & Sense. David is a leading expert on China's economy and U.S.-China economic relations and from 2009 to 2013, was the U.S. Treasury’s economic and financial emissary to China, based in Beijing. David shares his insights on the current state of China US relations and China’s posturings on the word stage.Covid-19 has highlighted the real prospect of severe supply chain disruption during a pandemic and for many countries, their dependence on China. John Blackburn from the Institute of Integrated Economics Research - Australia explains. John is a consultant in the fields of Defence and National Security and has extensive experience in strategy, policy, planning, operational command, capability development and material acquisition. John was appointed an Officer in the Military Division of the Order of Australia (AO).Kirk Clyatt, veteran broadcaster and Emmy Award winner tells us how locals are coping and how tourism is holding up in Las Vegas during the Covid-19 Crisis.Plus, we report on Amazon Prime’s new competitor.Stay tuned for more exciting developments, updated website, audio podcasts and exclusive interviews.Finally, don't forget to subscribe.

As China’s reported number of coronavirus cases hovers close to zero and the country begins charting an ambitious economic recovery, one question emerging is how the pandemic affects China’s outlook for energy and climate change. The National People’s Congress, which took place last week following a two-month delay, broke with tradition in not announcing a 2020 growth target for the economy, and likewise, China’s top planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, has declined to set an energy intensity reduction target for the year due to ongoing global economic uncertainty.  The three biggest producers of greenhouse gases - the European Union, the United States, and China - are signaling quite diverging paths about how green a stimulus and clean energy investment plan might be. How is China considering carbon-intensive industry to restore economic growth? How is it thinking about the role of oil and gas, its relationship with the U.S. and its trade deal, and its leadership in the global climate arena?  In this edition of Columbia Energy Exchange, host Jason Bordoff is joined by two Center on Global Energy Policy experts, David Sandalow and Erica Downs, to discuss these questions.  David Sandalow is the Inaugural Fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy and co-Director of the Energy and Environment Concentration at the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University. He directs the Center’s U.S.-China Program and is the author of the Guide to Chinese Climate Policy. Last fall, he was a Distinguished Visiting Professor in the Schwarzman Scholars Program at Tsinghua University in China. David came to Columbia from the U.S. Department of Energy, where he served as Under Secretary of Energy (acting) and Assistant Secretary for Policy & International Affairs. Prior to serving at the Department of Energy, David was a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. He also served in the White House and as an Assistant Secretary at the U.S. Department of State. Dr. Erica Downs is a Senior Research Scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy focusing on Chinese energy markets and geopolitics. Erica previously worked as a senior research scientist in the China Studies division of the CNA Corporation, a senior analyst in the Asia practice at Eurasia Group, a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution, and an energy analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency. Erica holds a Ph.D and M.A. from Princeton University. For more on Covid-19 and China's energy outlook, check out a new commentary from CGEP's Kevin Tu, COVID-19 Pandemic’s Impacts on China’s Energy Sector: A Preliminary Analysis.

On Friday, May 15, the John L. Thornton China Center and Center for East Asia Policy Studies at Brookings convened a webinar featuring experts from Asian cities and economic sectors to discuss their experiences with efforts to ease social restrictions and reopen economies. https://www.brookings.edu/events/webinar-reopening-and-revitalization-in-asia-recommendations-from-cities-and-sectors/ Subscribe to Brookings Events on iTunes, send feedback email to events@brookings.edu, and follow us and tweet us at @policypodcasts on Twitter. To learn more about upcoming events, visit our website. Brookings Events is part of the Brookings Podcast Network.

On April 3, the Brookings John L. Thornton China Center convened a remote panel of experts from China, Japan, Singapore and South Korea to discuss what has worked to combat this pandemic. Subscribe to Brookings Events on iTunes, send feedback email to events@brookings.edu, and follow us and tweet us at @policypodcasts on Twitter. To learn more about upcoming events, visit our website. Brookings Events is part of the Brookings Podcast Network.

A teleconference on the economic consequences of novel coronavirus' (COVID-19) wide and rapid spread across China. As the origin of the global outbreak, China's economic state offers us a glimpse of what may come to pass in other economies as the virus continues to spread worldwide. Featuring: Dr. David Dollar, Senior Fellow of Foreign Policy, Global Economy, and Development, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution David Dollar is a leading expert on China's economy and U.S.-China economic relations. From 2009 to 2013, Dollar was the U.S. Treasury’s economic and financial emissary to China, based in Beijing, facilitating the macroeconomic and financial policy dialogue between the United States and China. Dr. Victor Shih, Ho Miu Lam Chair in China and Pacific Relations, Associate Professor, School of Global Policy & Strategy, UC San Diego Victor Shih is an associate professor of political economy and has published widely on the politics of Chinese banking policies, fiscal policies and exchange rates. Moderator: Dr. Sara Hsu, Founder and CEO, China Rising Capital Forecast Dr. Hsu is a former economics professor and CEO of China Rising. She has written many books and articles on the Chinese economy and financial system, focusing on Chinese shadow banking, informal finance, and fintech.

On January 10, the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings convened a panel of experts from the U.S. and China to discuss the emerging economic challenges for China as it sets out to achieve its Centennial Goals over the coming three decades. The event previewed “China 2049: Economic challenges of a rising global power,” a forthcoming book by David Dollar, Yiping Huang, and Yang Yao from the Brookings Press.  Subscribe to Brookings Events on iTunes, send feedback email to events@brookings.edu, and follow us and tweet us at @policypodcasts on Twitter. To learn more about upcoming events, visit our website. Brookings Events is part of the Brookings Podcast Network.

On Thursday, November 21, the Center for East Asia Policy Studies and the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings hosted a conversation with Christine Loh to address the current state of affairs in Hong Kong and its path forward. Subscribe to Brookings Events on iTunes, send feedback email to events@brookings.edu, and follow us and tweet us at @policypodcasts on Twitter. To learn more about upcoming events, visit our website. Brookings Events is part of the Brookings Podcast Network.

In this episode of Asia Unscripted, Vivien and Isabelle hear from David Dollar, senior fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution and host of the Brookings trade podcast, Dollar&Sense. David is a leading expert on China's economy and U.S.-China economic relations. From 2009 to 2013, he was the US Treasury’s economic and financial emissary to China, based in Beijing, facilitating the macroeconomic and financial policy dialogue between the United States and China. Prior to joining Treasury, David worked 20 years for the World Bank, serving as country director for China and Mongolia based in Beijing in his last five years. In the following clips, David discusses the Chinese economy and the ongoing US-China trade conflict. Support the show (https://www.usasiainstitute.org/support-usai-ch)

Ryan Hass, who served as the Director for China on the National Security Council during President Barack Obama's second term, is alarmed at the direction that the U.S. policy toward China has been taking, and offers good sense on what we could be doing instead. While clear-eyed about Beijing, he warns that the path Washington is now on will lead to some dire outcomes. Ryan joins Kaiser in a show taped at the Brookings Institution, where Ryan now serves as a Rubenstein fellow with the John L. Thornton China Center. Today, we also publish on SupChina an essay by Ryan titled, “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.” In the essay, Ryan explains why the U.S.-China relationship will not return to the days before President Trump was elected, and suggests five questions the U.S. policy community could use to structure its thinking towards China going forward. What to listen for on this week’s Sinica Podcast: 3:10: China-watchers have witnessed tumultuous change in the U.S.-China relationship since President Trump’s election in 2016. Ryan elaborates on changes in Washington: “For 40 years, center-right and center-left policymakers basically had their hands on the steering wheel of American policy toward China. That changed two years ago.” However, this may not hold true outside the Beltway, according to Ryan: “If we look at polling by Pew, or the Chicago Council…what we find is that most Americans don’t think of China either as a partner or as a rival. They have mixed feelings on China.” 14:12: Ryan shares his opinions on the current moment we find ourselves in concerning the bilateral relationship with China. “I personally think that we are in the most precarious moment in the U.S.-China relationship that we have been in since 1979, or perhaps 1972,” he states, explaining that conflicting diagnoses on the main areas of contention result in greater disarray. Ryan adds that actors in Beijing claim that the United States’ “anxieties about China’s relative rise” in Washington have resulted in the heavy-handed policies, whereas on the other hand, those in Washington claim China has “stepped back from the path of reform and opening,” thus justifying the current approach. 32:13: Has the argument of containment reemerged in the era of Trump? Kaiser suggests that, with arms sales to Taiwan, F-35 sales to Japan, and the increasingly severe action and rhetoric taken against Huawei, one could hesitantly say yes if viewing the current state of affairs from Beijing’s perspective. Ryan responds: “There was a point in time when I could say confidently yes, that [containment] is an unreasonable conclusion for Beijing to draw… It’s harder for me to make that same case credibly anymore.” However, he does make a poignant case for optimism: “I guess I am just reluctant to accept the fatalism that seems to be so enrapturing the Beltway right now that it is impossible for our two countries, or systems, to coexist with each other because they are fundamentally at odds.” 40:53: The nature of the relationship between the United States and China will be one of increased competition. What can be done about it? Ryan suggests a more proactive approach, saying: “For me, the core question, though, isn’t whether we as Americans should feel righteous in our indignation about certain Chinese behaviors, but really: What should we be doing about it?” Recommendations: Ryan: The Back Channel: A Memoir of American Diplomacy and the Case for Its Renewal, by Bill Burns, a source of inspiration for Ryan in his diplomatic career, and the Hamilton soundtrack.   Kaiser: Pops: Fatherhood in Pieces, a collection of essays by Michael Chabon.

David Dollar is a senior fellow at the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. He has previously served as the U.S. Treasury Department emissary to Beijing during the Obama Administration, and the World Bank's country director for China and Mongolia. He discusses his storied career and the recent history of U.S.-China financial relations, including the current trade war's origins in the 2008 financial crisis. Get bonus content on Patreon See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

David Dollar is a senior fellow at the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. He has previously served as the U.S. Treasury Department emissary to Beijing during the Obama Administration, and the World Bank's country director for China and Mongolia. He discusses his storied career and the recent history of U.S.-China financial relations, including the current trade war's origins in the 2008 financial crisis.  

In this episode, Brookings experts David Dollar, senior fellow with the John L. Thornton China Center, and Joseph Parilla, fellow in the Metropolitan Policy Program, examine what effect the trade war has had on the U.S. and Chinese economies–and workers–so far. They explain why trade wars don’t actually reduce the trade deficit, which other countries might benefit, and what the prospects are for resolution between the U.S. and China. Full show notes available here: https://brook.gs/2PgOE8N  With thanks to audio producer Gaston Reboredo, Chris McKenna, Brennan Hoban, Fred Dews and Camilo Ramirez for additional support. Send feedback email to intersections@brookings.edu, and follow us and tweet us at @policypodcasts on Twitter. Intersections is part of the Brookings Podcast Network.

A call to action by President Xi Jinping has led to significant resources being devoted to the development and expansion of China’s think tanks. While some critics have derided them as “tanks without thinkers,” China’s think tanks play a growing part in the crafting of domestic and foreign policies. In addition, their connections to party leadership make them an invaluable window through which foreign scholars and officials can observe both the Chinese intellectual discourse and policymaking process.    In a pioneering new study, The Power of Ideas: The Rising Influence of Thinkers and Think Tanks in China, Dr. Cheng Li of the Brookings Institution examines the complicated relationship between the Chinese government and think tanks and the prospects for China’s efforts to promote new types of think tanks. On September 6, 2017, Dr. Li joined the National Committee for a discussion of his book with NCUSCR President Stephen Orlins.   Cheng Li is director and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s John L. Thornton China Center. Dr. Li is also a director of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, a member of the Academic Advisory Team of the Congressional U.S.-China Working Group, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a member of the Committee of 100. He is the author/editor of numerous books, including Rediscovering China: Dynamics and Dilemmas of Reform (1997), China’s Leaders: The New Generation (2001), Bridging Minds Across the Pacific: The Sino-US Educational Exchange (2005), China’s Changing Political Landscape: Prospects for Democracy (2008), China’s Emerging Middle Class: Beyond Economic Transformation (2010), The Road to Zhongnanhai: High-Level Leadership Groups on the Eve of the 18th Party Congress (2012, in Chinese), China’s Political Development: Chinese and American Perspectives (2014), Chinese Politics in the Xi Jinping Era: Reassessing Collective Leadership (2016) and The Power of Ideas: The Rising Influence of Thinkers and Think Tanks in China (2017). He is the principal editor of the Thornton Center Chinese Thinkers Series published by the Brookings Institution Press.  Dr. Li has advised a wide range of U.S. government, education, research, business and not-for-profit organizations on work in China, and is frequently called upon to share his perspectives and insights as an expert on China. He recently appeared on BBC, CCTV, CNN, C-SPAN, ABC World News with Diane Sawyer, NPR Diane Rehm Show, and the PBS Charlie Rose Show. Dr. Li grew up in Shanghai during the Cultural Revolution. In 1985, he came to the United States where he later received an M.A. in Asian studies from the University of California and a Ph.D. in political science from Princeton University.

A call to action by President Xi Jinping has led to significant resources being devoted to the development and expansion of China’s think tanks. While some critics have derided them as “tanks without thinkers,” China’s think tanks play a growing part in the crafting of domestic and foreign policies. In addition, their connections to party leadership make them an invaluable window through which foreign scholars and officials can observe both the Chinese intellectual discourse and policymaking process.    In a pioneering new study, The Power of Ideas: The Rising Influence of Thinkers and Think Tanks in China, Dr. Cheng Li of the Brookings Institution examines the complicated relationship between the Chinese government and think tanks and the prospects for China’s efforts to promote new types of think tanks. On September 6, 2017, Dr. Li joined the National Committee for a discussion of his book with NCUSCR President Stephen Orlins. Cheng Li is director and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s John L. Thornton China Center. Dr. Li is also a director of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, a member of the Academic Advisory Team of the Congressional U.S.-China Working Group, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a member of the Committee of 100. He is the author/editor of numerous books, including Rediscovering China: Dynamics and Dilemmas of Reform (1997), China’s Leaders: The New Generation (2001), Bridging Minds Across the Pacific: The Sino-US Educational Exchange (2005), China’s Changing Political Landscape: Prospects for Democracy (2008), China’s Emerging Middle Class: Beyond Economic Transformation (2010), The Road to Zhongnanhai: High-Level Leadership Groups on the Eve of the 18th Party Congress (2012, in Chinese), China’s Political Development: Chinese and American Perspectives (2014), Chinese Politics in the Xi Jinping Era: Reassessing Collective Leadership (2016) and The Power of Ideas: The Rising Influence of Thinkers and Think Tanks in China (2017). He is the principal editor of the Thornton Center Chinese Thinkers Series published by the Brookings Institution Press.  Dr. Li has advised a wide range of U.S. government, education, research, business and not-for-profit organizations on work in China, and is frequently called upon to share his perspectives and insights as an expert on China. He recently appeared on BBC, CCTV, CNN, C-SPAN, ABC World News with Diane Sawyer, NPR Diane Rehm Show, and the PBS Charlie Rose Show. Dr. Li grew up in Shanghai during the Cultural Revolution. In 1985, he came to the United States where he later received an M.A. in Asian studies from the University of California and a Ph.D. in political science from Princeton University.

Since becoming general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party in 2012, Xi Jinping has pursued a bold policy agenda designed to strengthen the party and enhance influence abroad, consolidating more power and authority than any Chinese leader since Deng Xiaoping. Throughout this period, President Xi’s actions and pronouncements have often seemed to be contradictory. He has called for greater legal development, championed China’s think tanks, and advanced cooperation with the United States on key issues of global concern. At the same time, his administration has prosecuted human rights lawyers, tightened media control, and restrained foreign NGOs. He is a strong proponent of market reforms but has yet to adequately address overcapacity in the state sector. Xi’s paradoxical pursuits have inspired widely different conclusions among analysts about his ultimate intentions. But in the context of China’s domestic politics, these apparent contradictions reflect a certain logic. Comprehending the inner workings of Chinese politics is therefore essential to gauging the prospects for U.S.-China relations, particularly as a new U.S. president takes office and as China’s top leaders jockey for power ahead of the 2017 party congress.   In his new work, Chinese Politics in the Xi Jinping Era: Reassessing Collective Leadership, Brookings Institution scholar Cheng Li reveals the status of political institutionalization in Xi’s China by examining the backgrounds of the 376 members of the party’s Central Committee. Dr. Li contextualizes President Xi’s rise and illuminates the intriguing dynamics of factional politics within the party. On January 25, in a conversation with National Committee President Stephen Orlins, Dr. Li shared his insights into Chinese elite politics, his analysis of Xi Jinping’s views and vision, and his forecast of the upcoming leadership change at the 2017 party congress.   Cheng Li is director and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s John L. Thornton China Center. Dr. Li is also on the National Committee’s board of directors, a member of the Academic Advisory Team of the Congressional U.S.-China Working Group, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a member of the Committee of 100. Dr. Li has advised a wide range of U.S. government, education, research, business and not-for-profit organizations on work in China. He is the author and editor of numerous books, He is the principal editor of the Thornton Center Chinese Thinkers Series, published by the Brookings Institution Press. Dr. Li grew up in Shanghai during the Cultural Revolution. In 1985, he came to the United States, where he received an M.A. in Asian studies from the University of California and a Ph.D. in political science from Princeton University.  

Cheng Li, senior fellow in Foreign Policy and director of the John L. Thornton China Center, talks about the rise of Chinese President Xi Jinping through the Chinese communist party leadership, which is the focus of his new book, “Chinese Politics in the Xi Jinping Era: Reassessing Collective Leadership.” Also in this episode, Laurence Chandy, fellow in Global Economy and Development, examines how technology and globalization affect inequality. Finally, Harsha Singh, executive director of the Brookings India Center, discusses his career, Brookings India, and current events in India. Thanks to audio producer Gaston Reboredo and producer Vanessa Sauter, and also thanks for additional support from Eric Abalahin, Jessica Pavone, Nawal Atallah, Basseem Maleki, and Rebecca Viser. Subscribe to the Brookings Cafeteria on iTunes, listen in all the usual places, send feedback email to , and follow us and tweet us at  on Twitter. BCP is part of the .

In this episode of "Intersections," Richard Bush, senior fellow in Foreign Policy and the John L. Thornton China Center and director of the Center for East Asia Policy Studies (CEAP), and Cheng Li, senior fellow in Foreign Policy and director of the John L. Thornton China Center, discuss the recent elections in Hong Kong, the independence movement, and China’s one country, two systems governance policy. With thanks to audio engineer Mark Hoelscher, Vanessa Sauter, Basseem Maleki, Fred Dews, and Richard Fawal. Questions? Comments? Email us at intersections@brookings.edu.  

This episode of Sinica is a wide-ranging conversation with Cheng Li (李成), one of the most prominent international scholars of elite Chinese politics and its relation to grassroots changes and generational shifts. He discusses the historical rise and fall of technocracy, corruption and the campaigns against it, power factions within the Communist Party and the new dynamics of the Xi Jinping era. Cheng Li has authored and edited numerous books and articles on subjects ranging from the politics behind China’s tobacco industry to the nature of collective leadership under Xi. He began his career as a doctor after three years of medical training in the waning years of the Cultural Revolution, then changed course in 1985 to study under scholars such as Robert Scalapino and Chalmers Johnson at the University of California, Berkeley, and Lynn White at Princeton University. He is the director of the John L. Thornton China Center and a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy program at Brookings, as well as a director of the National Committee on U.S.–China Relations. Recommendations: Jeremy: Hugh White’s review of The Pivot: The Future of American Statecraft in Asia by Kurt Campbell and Kurt Campbell’s reply Cheng: The Seventh Sense: Power, Fortune, and Survival in the Age of Networks by Joshua Cooper Ramo Kaiser: Scientism in Chinese Thought: 1900-1950 by D. W. Y. Kwok and Xi Jinping is No Mao Zedong by Keyu Jin  

This episode features two of the leaders of the Brookings Institution: the co-chairs of the , John L. Thornton and David M. Rubenstein. They reflect on our first 100 years and share their thoughts on Brookings’s second century. The episode is the first in a series celebrating 100 years of the Brookings Institution. Later in this series, you’ll hear from former and current Brookings presidents as well as scholars.

On September 21, the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution hosted a panel discussion that helped illuminate the historical context of the U.S.-China relationship. Three leading China historians, including Fairbank Center Director Mark Elliott and Harvard China Fund Director William Kirby, presented accounts of U.S.-China relations during different periods in history, shedding valuable light on how historical perspective can help guide relations in a challenging time and in the long-term. With the state visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping approaching, headlines in the United States about China have been dominated by concerns about China’s economic expansion and stock market volatility, cyberespionage, reclamation activities in the South China Sea, and—most critically—China’s reemergence as a global power. However, this prevalent narrative tends to mask the important history of both the enduring issues and profound changes in the bilateral relationship—a history that can help provide the context for actions taken by both countries today and prevent misunderstandings and policy mistakes that could shake the world community.