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8 episodes with victor shih
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3 episodes with victor shih
2 episodes with victor shih
On this episode, I chat with Victor Shih about all things China. We discuss China's massive local debt crisis, the CCP's views on AI, what happens after Xi, and more.Victor Shih is an expert on the Chinese political system, as well as their banking and fiscal policies, and he has amassed more biographical data on the Chinese elite than anyone else in the world. He teaches at UC San Diego, where he also directs the 21st Century China Center.Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.Sponsors* Scale is building the infrastructure for smarter, safer AI. In addition to their Data Foundry, they just released Scale Evaluation, a tool that diagnoses model limitations. Learn how Scale can help you push the frontier at scale.com/dwarkesh.* WorkOS is how top AI companies ship critical enterprise features without burning months of engineering time. If you need features like SSO, audit logs, or user provisioning, head to workos.com.To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.Timestamps(00:00:00) – Is China more decentralized than the US?(00:03:16) – How the Politburo Standing Committee makes decisions(00:21:07) – Xi's right hand man in charge of AGI(00:35:37) – DeepSeek was trained to track CCP policy(00:45:35) – Local government debt crisis(00:50:00) – BYD, CATL, & financial repression(00:58:12) – How corruption leads to overbuilding(01:10:46) – Probability of Taiwan invasion(01:18:56) – Succession after Xi(01:25:10) – Future growth forecasts Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
As Chinese Whispers comes to an end, here is a compilation of some of the best discussions Cindy Yu has had across the podcast to understand modern China and President Xi. On this episode you can hear from: journalist Bill Hayton on what it means to be Chinese (1:10); writer and actor Mark Kitto and author Alex Ash on being foreign in China (13:07); professor of international history Elizabeth Ingleson on whether China's economic boom was made in America (23:08); professor of Chinese studies and former diplomat Kerry Brown and professor of history Steve Tsang on how the cultural revolution shaped China's leaders today (47:05); journalist Bill Bishop and professor of political science Victor Shih on how Xi took complete control at the 20th party congress in 2022 (58:13); journalist and advisor Noah Barkin on the relationship between Europe and China (1:10:04); and, professor of China studies William Kirby and former diplomat Charles Parton on why China won't invade Taiwan (1:19:56). To stay abreast of Cindy's latest work, subscribe to her free Substack at chinesewhispers.substack.com Produced by Cindy Yu and Patrick Gibbons.
As Chinese Whispers comes to an end, here is a compilation of some of the best discussions Cindy Yu has had across the podcast to understand modern China and President Xi. On this episode you can hear from: journalist Bill Hayton on what it means to be Chinese (1:10); writer and actor Mark Kitto and author Alex Ash on being foreign in China (13:07); professor of international history Elizabeth Ingleson on whether China's economic boom was made in America (23:08); professor of Chinese studies and former diplomat Kerry Brown and professor of history Steve Tsang on how the cultural revolution shaped China's leaders today (47:05); journalist Bill Bishop and professor of political science Victor Shih on how Xi took complete control at the 20th party congress in 2022 (58:13); journalist and advisor Noah Barkin on the relationship between Europe and China (1:10:04); and, professor of China studies William Kirby and former diplomat Charles Parton on why China won't invade Taiwan (1:19:56). To stay abreast of Cindy's latest work, subscribe to her free Substack at chinesewhispers.substack.com Produced by Cindy Yu and Patrick Gibbons.
In this episode of Pekingology from June 2022, Jude Blanchette is joined by Victor Shih, associate professor and Ho Miu Lam Chair in China and Pacific Relations at the School of Global Policy and Strategy, UC San Diego. They discuss his book, Coalitions of the Weak: Elite Politics in China from Mao's Stratagem to the Rise of Xi.
After months of weak economic performance, Beijing has introduced a series of measures aimed at stabilizing the economy. They include a 10 trillion yuan local government debt restructuring package.To shed light on the blatant levels of local government indebtedness, Claudia Wessling, Director Communications and Publications at MERICS, talks to Victor Shih and Max Zenglein. Victor is a professor of political science, director of the 21st Century China Center at the School of Global Policy and Strategy and the Ho Miu Lam Chair in China and Pacific Relations at UC San Diego. Max is the Chief Economist at MERICS and the driving force behind the Economic Indicators, a quarterly series of analyses for MERICS members that puts China's economic statistics into context. --This podcast episode is part of the “Dealing with a Resurgent China” (DWARC) project, which has received funding from the European Union's Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under grant agreement number 101061700. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.
In Coalitions of the Weak (Cambridge University Press, 2022), Victor C. Shih investigates how leaders of one-party autocracies seek to dominate the elite and achieve true dictatorship, governing without fear of internal challenge or resistance to major policy changes. Through an in-depth look of late-Mao politics informed by thousands of historical documents and data analysis, Coalitions of the Weak uncovers Mao's strategy of replacing seasoned, densely networked senior officials with either politically tainted or inexperienced officials. The book further documents how a decentralized version of this strategy led to two generations of weak leadership in the Chinese Communist Party, creating the conditions for Xi's rapid consolidation of power after 2012. Victor Shih is Professor of Political Science, Director of the 21st Century China Center, and Ho Miu Lam Chair in China and Pacific Relations at the University of California, San Diego. He is an expert on the politics of Chinese banking policies, fiscal policies, and exchange rate, as well as the elite politics of China. His first book was "Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation" also with Cambridge University Press, and he edited the collection "Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Stability: Duration, Institutions and Financial Conditions," published by the University of Michigan Press. Shih also has published widely in a number of journals, including The American Political Science Review, Comparative Political Studies, Journal of Politics, The China Quarterly, and Party Politics. In our discussion he also mentions his latest work on China's local government debt crisis, available here. Interviewer Peter Lorentzen is an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of San Francisco, a nonresident scholar at the UCSD 21st Century China Center, an alumnus of the Public Intellectuals Program of the National Committee on US-China Relations, and is currently a visiting scholar at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions. His research focuses on the economics of information, incentives, and institutions, primarily as applied to the development and governance of China. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network
In Coalitions of the Weak (Cambridge University Press, 2022), Victor C. Shih investigates how leaders of one-party autocracies seek to dominate the elite and achieve true dictatorship, governing without fear of internal challenge or resistance to major policy changes. Through an in-depth look of late-Mao politics informed by thousands of historical documents and data analysis, Coalitions of the Weak uncovers Mao's strategy of replacing seasoned, densely networked senior officials with either politically tainted or inexperienced officials. The book further documents how a decentralized version of this strategy led to two generations of weak leadership in the Chinese Communist Party, creating the conditions for Xi's rapid consolidation of power after 2012. Victor Shih is Professor of Political Science, Director of the 21st Century China Center, and Ho Miu Lam Chair in China and Pacific Relations at the University of California, San Diego. He is an expert on the politics of Chinese banking policies, fiscal policies, and exchange rate, as well as the elite politics of China. His first book was "Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation" also with Cambridge University Press, and he edited the collection "Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Stability: Duration, Institutions and Financial Conditions," published by the University of Michigan Press. Shih also has published widely in a number of journals, including The American Political Science Review, Comparative Political Studies, Journal of Politics, The China Quarterly, and Party Politics. In our discussion he also mentions his latest work on China's local government debt crisis, available here. Interviewer Peter Lorentzen is an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of San Francisco, a nonresident scholar at the UCSD 21st Century China Center, an alumnus of the Public Intellectuals Program of the National Committee on US-China Relations, and is currently a visiting scholar at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions. His research focuses on the economics of information, incentives, and institutions, primarily as applied to the development and governance of China. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/history
In Coalitions of the Weak (Cambridge University Press, 2022), Victor C. Shih investigates how leaders of one-party autocracies seek to dominate the elite and achieve true dictatorship, governing without fear of internal challenge or resistance to major policy changes. Through an in-depth look of late-Mao politics informed by thousands of historical documents and data analysis, Coalitions of the Weak uncovers Mao's strategy of replacing seasoned, densely networked senior officials with either politically tainted or inexperienced officials. The book further documents how a decentralized version of this strategy led to two generations of weak leadership in the Chinese Communist Party, creating the conditions for Xi's rapid consolidation of power after 2012. Victor Shih is Professor of Political Science, Director of the 21st Century China Center, and Ho Miu Lam Chair in China and Pacific Relations at the University of California, San Diego. He is an expert on the politics of Chinese banking policies, fiscal policies, and exchange rate, as well as the elite politics of China. His first book was "Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation" also with Cambridge University Press, and he edited the collection "Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Stability: Duration, Institutions and Financial Conditions," published by the University of Michigan Press. Shih also has published widely in a number of journals, including The American Political Science Review, Comparative Political Studies, Journal of Politics, The China Quarterly, and Party Politics. In our discussion he also mentions his latest work on China's local government debt crisis, available here. Interviewer Peter Lorentzen is an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of San Francisco, a nonresident scholar at the UCSD 21st Century China Center, an alumnus of the Public Intellectuals Program of the National Committee on US-China Relations, and is currently a visiting scholar at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions. His research focuses on the economics of information, incentives, and institutions, primarily as applied to the development and governance of China. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/east-asian-studies
In Coalitions of the Weak (Cambridge University Press, 2022), Victor C. Shih investigates how leaders of one-party autocracies seek to dominate the elite and achieve true dictatorship, governing without fear of internal challenge or resistance to major policy changes. Through an in-depth look of late-Mao politics informed by thousands of historical documents and data analysis, Coalitions of the Weak uncovers Mao's strategy of replacing seasoned, densely networked senior officials with either politically tainted or inexperienced officials. The book further documents how a decentralized version of this strategy led to two generations of weak leadership in the Chinese Communist Party, creating the conditions for Xi's rapid consolidation of power after 2012. Victor Shih is Professor of Political Science, Director of the 21st Century China Center, and Ho Miu Lam Chair in China and Pacific Relations at the University of California, San Diego. He is an expert on the politics of Chinese banking policies, fiscal policies, and exchange rate, as well as the elite politics of China. His first book was "Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation" also with Cambridge University Press, and he edited the collection "Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Stability: Duration, Institutions and Financial Conditions," published by the University of Michigan Press. Shih also has published widely in a number of journals, including The American Political Science Review, Comparative Political Studies, Journal of Politics, The China Quarterly, and Party Politics. In our discussion he also mentions his latest work on China's local government debt crisis, available here. Interviewer Peter Lorentzen is an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of San Francisco, a nonresident scholar at the UCSD 21st Century China Center, an alumnus of the Public Intellectuals Program of the National Committee on US-China Relations, and is currently a visiting scholar at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions. His research focuses on the economics of information, incentives, and institutions, primarily as applied to the development and governance of China. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/political-science
In Coalitions of the Weak (Cambridge University Press, 2022), Victor C. Shih investigates how leaders of one-party autocracies seek to dominate the elite and achieve true dictatorship, governing without fear of internal challenge or resistance to major policy changes. Through an in-depth look of late-Mao politics informed by thousands of historical documents and data analysis, Coalitions of the Weak uncovers Mao's strategy of replacing seasoned, densely networked senior officials with either politically tainted or inexperienced officials. The book further documents how a decentralized version of this strategy led to two generations of weak leadership in the Chinese Communist Party, creating the conditions for Xi's rapid consolidation of power after 2012. Victor Shih is Professor of Political Science, Director of the 21st Century China Center, and Ho Miu Lam Chair in China and Pacific Relations at the University of California, San Diego. He is an expert on the politics of Chinese banking policies, fiscal policies, and exchange rate, as well as the elite politics of China. His first book was "Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation" also with Cambridge University Press, and he edited the collection "Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Stability: Duration, Institutions and Financial Conditions," published by the University of Michigan Press. Shih also has published widely in a number of journals, including The American Political Science Review, Comparative Political Studies, Journal of Politics, The China Quarterly, and Party Politics. In our discussion he also mentions his latest work on China's local government debt crisis, available here. Interviewer Peter Lorentzen is an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of San Francisco, a nonresident scholar at the UCSD 21st Century China Center, an alumnus of the Public Intellectuals Program of the National Committee on US-China Relations, and is currently a visiting scholar at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions. His research focuses on the economics of information, incentives, and institutions, primarily as applied to the development and governance of China. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/chinese-studies
In Coalitions of the Weak (Cambridge University Press, 2022), Victor C. Shih investigates how leaders of one-party autocracies seek to dominate the elite and achieve true dictatorship, governing without fear of internal challenge or resistance to major policy changes. Through an in-depth look of late-Mao politics informed by thousands of historical documents and data analysis, Coalitions of the Weak uncovers Mao's strategy of replacing seasoned, densely networked senior officials with either politically tainted or inexperienced officials. The book further documents how a decentralized version of this strategy led to two generations of weak leadership in the Chinese Communist Party, creating the conditions for Xi's rapid consolidation of power after 2012. Victor Shih is Professor of Political Science, Director of the 21st Century China Center, and Ho Miu Lam Chair in China and Pacific Relations at the University of California, San Diego. He is an expert on the politics of Chinese banking policies, fiscal policies, and exchange rate, as well as the elite politics of China. His first book was "Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation" also with Cambridge University Press, and he edited the collection "Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Stability: Duration, Institutions and Financial Conditions," published by the University of Michigan Press. Shih also has published widely in a number of journals, including The American Political Science Review, Comparative Political Studies, Journal of Politics, The China Quarterly, and Party Politics. In our discussion he also mentions his latest work on China's local government debt crisis, available here. Interviewer Peter Lorentzen is an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of San Francisco, a nonresident scholar at the UCSD 21st Century China Center, an alumnus of the Public Intellectuals Program of the National Committee on US-China Relations, and is currently a visiting scholar at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions. His research focuses on the economics of information, incentives, and institutions, primarily as applied to the development and governance of China.
In Coalitions of the Weak (Cambridge University Press, 2022), Victor C. Shih investigates how leaders of one-party autocracies seek to dominate the elite and achieve true dictatorship, governing without fear of internal challenge or resistance to major policy changes. Through an in-depth look of late-Mao politics informed by thousands of historical documents and data analysis, Coalitions of the Weak uncovers Mao's strategy of replacing seasoned, densely networked senior officials with either politically tainted or inexperienced officials. The book further documents how a decentralized version of this strategy led to two generations of weak leadership in the Chinese Communist Party, creating the conditions for Xi's rapid consolidation of power after 2012. Victor Shih is Professor of Political Science, Director of the 21st Century China Center, and Ho Miu Lam Chair in China and Pacific Relations at the University of California, San Diego. He is an expert on the politics of Chinese banking policies, fiscal policies, and exchange rate, as well as the elite politics of China. His first book was "Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation" also with Cambridge University Press, and he edited the collection "Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Stability: Duration, Institutions and Financial Conditions," published by the University of Michigan Press. Shih also has published widely in a number of journals, including The American Political Science Review, Comparative Political Studies, Journal of Politics, The China Quarterly, and Party Politics. In our discussion he also mentions his latest work on China's local government debt crisis, available here. Interviewer Peter Lorentzen is an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of San Francisco, a nonresident scholar at the UCSD 21st Century China Center, an alumnus of the Public Intellectuals Program of the National Committee on US-China Relations, and is currently a visiting scholar at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions. His research focuses on the economics of information, incentives, and institutions, primarily as applied to the development and governance of China. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/book-of-the-day
Did you know, that the compass, gunpowder, paper, and the printing press, all history-changing technologies, were invented in China? Yet, the realization of their economic values happened in Europe, not in China. This is the story of the steep price that imperial China paid for the sake of stability and scale, a story that Communist China seems to be repeating now. Dr. Yasheng Huang of MIT's Sloan School of Management, HbN's guest for this subject, analyzes China's colossal economic successes and gigantic failures ("gigantic" is his word) in the context of innovation, freedom of ideas, and diversity of ideologies. Similar to other countries, China's economic success depends on the right balance between scope and scale, terms that Dr. Huang explains. But in most of China's long history, this balance has tipped towards scale, with grave consequences for China's economy and civilization. In this episode, Dr. Huang discusses the following: What new perspective does his book (see below) offer about China? Hint: EAST. When was China's golden age of innovation? China's civil service exam system was an opportunity ladder - similar to America's rags-to-riches stories. China's universal education system was established centuries before Europe's. Unlike European monarchs, China's emperors were surrounded by commoners who entered the inner sanctum of the Imperial Court through merit, not by birthright. Why didn't China's rigorous education and meritocratic civil service system contribute to innovation and economic growth? When did China's innovation and economy fall behind Europe's? Despite its gigantic failures, why has China's Communist Party proved so durable? Read more about this episode, see historical images and watch videos on the HbN website here. This New York Times article, which I mention in this episode, is about a Chinese woman whose journey epitomizes the entrepreneurial spirit that was the backbone of China's economic miracle. A Gigantic Ponzi In China? Is China's real estate debt structure, essentially one gigantic Ponzi scheme? According to Dr. Victor Shih - yes it is. Dr. Shih is a professor at UC San Diego's School of Global Policy and Strategy, and the Chair in China and Pacific Relations. I spoke with him last year in Season 2, Episode 1, as China's giant real estate developer, the Evergrande Group, was defaulting on its loans. Our conversation then was timely for another reason: the publication of a book edited by Dr. Shih, Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Stability, which is about how authoritarian governments, such as China's, handle economic crises. I hope you enjoy these episodes. Adel Host of the History Behind News podcast Watch my guests & I on YouTube SUPPORT: Click here and join our other supporters in the news peeler community. Thank you.
Modi, the Host of the G20, Employs Fascist Tactics to Make India a Hindu Only Nation | As China's Economy Stumbles With Youth Unemployment at 21.3%, Xi Doubles Down on Repression | The Looming Possibility of Ethnic Cleansing and Genocide Against Armenia backgroundbriefing.org/donate twitter.com/ianmastersmedia facebook.com/ianmastersmedia
#THATSWHATUP Show! ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL w#Trista4SenateGov&Prez! #comedy #music #politics
Thank Gods for young people! YOUNG PEOPLE ARE GOING TO SAVE THE PLANET
What it is Like to Be a Person of Color and a Muslim American Constantly Having Your Loyalty Questioned | Did Xi Jinping Authorize the Chinese Spy Balloon's Intrusion Over the US? | As Pundits Warn of Recession and Inflation, We Get the Best Economic News Since 1969 backgroundbriefing.org/donate twitter.com/ianmastersmedia facebook.com/ianmastersmedia
China has seen a surge in protests in cities all around the country, targeted at the country's Covid Zero policies. But nearly three years into this pandemic, why did they happen now? How does recent economic weakness factor into the demonstrations? And why did the government allow them to go on in the first place? On this episode, we speak with Victor Shih, a professor at the School of Global Policy & Strategy at UC San Diego and author of the new book, Coalitions of the Weak: Elite Politics in China from Mao's Stratagem to the Rise of Xi. Shih explains this perilous moment for China, as it navigates the pandemic, a real estate bust and other assorted economic stresses.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In a remarkable display of discontent not seen since the 1989 Tiananmen Square demonstrations, protesters across China have taken to the streets demanding an end to the country's stringent zero-Covid policy. At the outset of the pandemic, China adopted a policy of quarantining and locking down its citizens to prevent the spread of Covid. But while most of the world has moved on to treat Covid as endemic, China's president Xi Jinping, who was confirmed in October for an unprecedented third term, has stuck to its zero-Covid policy. Demonstrators argue that the policy has placed an extraordinary burden on citizens, and they are demanding not just the end to the restrictions, but also Xi's resignation, a call that is politically sensitive in a nation where dissent is regularly quashed. We'll talk about the protests and what impact they might have in changing China's Covid policy and its future. Guests: Kerry Allen, China media analyst, BBC. Victor Shih, chair in China and Pacific Relations, University of California, San Diego. Nancy Qian, James J. O'Connor professor of Economics, Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management; founder, Kellogg's China Research Lab and China Econ Lab, an independent international organization that promotes research about the Chinese economy.
Historic protests over the weekend have pushed President Xi Jinping into perhaps the most uncomfortable position of his tenure, as China's continuing struggle with COVID-19 restrictions weighed on market sentiment ahead of Monday's open. All three major U.S. equity indexes were down more than 1% heading into the close, while investors sought safety in government bonds. Already skeptical of the recent rally, in his most recent research note Tavi Costa shared ample evidence a recession is imminent. Tavi, a portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, joins Maggie Lake for today's Daily Briefing to assess the global implications of growing domestic unrest over China's lockdowns, to explain why we should be paying attention to the U.S. Treasury yield curve, and to identify a potentially highly profitable macro trade for the next two years. We also hear from Victor Shih about the future of China's relationship with the rest of the world. Watch the full conversation between Victor Shih and Maggie Lake here: rvtv.io/3W0wYBt. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
在 YouTube 上看這一集：https://youtu.be/8KJap6TJAcw . 嗨大家好！這一集，我主要是想介紹兩本中共政治研究的新書，我覺得這兩本書真的都提供很有趣、很嶄新的視角，讓我們可以更好地瞭解，我們西邊這個很可能五年內會打過來（？）的鄰居。 . 我在這一集中試著整理一些學者專家的觀點，回答三個問題： （1）為何習近平（廟號清零宗）可以用超快速的時間集中黨內權力？ （2）為什麼近平陛下在二十大選擇這些人進入政治局常委會？ （3）習大大的成功策略，對於中共的利／弊是什麼？ . 兩本談到的新書在這裡，大家有興趣也可以找來看： 第一本《弱者聯盟》：Victor Shih（史宗瀚）. 2022. Coalitions of the Weak: Elites Politics in China from Mao's Stratagem to the Rise of Xi. Cambridge University Press. 第二本《重新思考中國政治》：Joseph Fewsmith（傅士卓）. 2021. Rethinking Chinese Politics. Cambridge University Press. . 另外 USCC（美中經濟暨安全檢討委員會）的今年的兩場聽證會（一月跟八月），也都討論了中共的菁英政治和決策過程。 . 贊助壽司坦丁，您的支持，讓我可以繼續製作高 CP 值的科學迴轉壽司： SoundOn 贊助連結： https://pay.soundon.fm/podcasts/a2bcd5ee-0216-4f22-92dd-86fa7357905a
President Xi Jinping strengthened his hold on power and took definitive steps to reverse a half-century of open relations with the West at last weekend's National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, triggering a steep sell-off of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks. The major equity indexes were all well in the green through midday – “Powder dry kind of day… yields up, VIX up, dollar steady – action sloppy,” is how Michele “Mish” Schneider, the Director of Trading Research and Education at MarketGauge.com, described it on Twitter. Maggie Lake welcomes Mish for today's Daily Briefing to talk about what she's looking at as earnings season kicks into high gear, inflation, commodities, and the dollar. We also hear from Victor Shih on President Xi Jinping's motivation for closing China. Watch the complete conversation between Victor Shih and Maggie Lake here:https://rvtv.io/3gFAdOR. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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The market is all set for a 75-basis-point rate-hike in November, though San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly stoked an equity rally on Friday when she said the central bank should try to avoid an “unforced downturn” by over-tightening. The U.S. dollar softened against major currency pairs, including the Japanese yen in spectacular fashion, and Treasury yields also declined. Saudi Arabia and China are forging new ties over crude oil, as the geopolitical-macroeconomic landscape continues to shift. Ash Bennington welcomes Warren Pies, the founder of 3Fourteen Research, to talk about what the Fed will look at as it determines policy from here, the key factors driving inflation right now, and the state of the global energy market. We also hear from Victor Shih about China's priorities for the next five years and its changing position in the global economy. Be sure to tune in on Monday, October 24th to watch the conversation between Victor Shih and Maggie Lake. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
It's the most closely watched political event on China's national calendar this year – and it could also be a turning point for the Chinese economy. Sona Remesh previews the Chinese Communist Party's 20th National Congress with her guests, Victor Shih, associate professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego, and Rory Green, head of China and Asia Research at TS Lombard.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
It's the most closely watched political event on China's national calendar this year – and it could also be a turning point for the Chinese economy. Sona Remesh previews the Chinese Communist Party's 20th National Congress with her guests, Victor Shih, associate professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego, and Rory Green, head of China and Asia Research at TS Lombard.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
As China approaches the 20th Party Congress to be held at the end of the year, President and CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping is aggressively promoting his government's superhuman achievements and infallible contributions to the glory of the state, making his case for an inevitable third term, and perhaps, leadership for life. But the problem with long-running leaders of authoritarian systems is that after a while, the people they surround themselves with are no longer the most trusted, the most competent, and the most influential - instead a pattern emerges that the leader prefers to be surrounded by weak, marginal officials who pose no threat to their leadership. This is the core argument of a fascinating book by Victor Shih of the University of California San Diego called, "Coalitions of the Weak: Elite Politics in China from Mao's Stratagem to the Rise of Xi." In his conversation with Robert Amsterdam, Shih shares fresh insights and fascinating details of the late Mao period based on a deep investigation of archival documents and data, showing how the most well networked officials were pushed aside in favor of politically tainted and incapable functionaries, leading to two generations of weak central leadership - a vacuum which provided the opening for the rise of Xi.
Mortgage boycotts that began in Jiangxi, China have spread to nearly 100 cities across the country, threatening over 320 real estate projects. They add more trouble to a property market that was already in turmoil and portend future pain in the world's second largest economy.On this week's episode, hosts Mike Bird, Soumaya Keynes and Alice Fulwood are joined by our China economics editor, Simon Cox, and our China business and finance editor, Don Weinland, to find what's causing the crisis. First, University of California San Diego assistant professor Victor Shih explains why the roots of this crisis go as far back as the early 1990s. Then, investor Andrew Left re-evaluates his report from 2012 in which he said the now-bankrupt Evergrande - once China's second-largest property developer - was a fraud. The call got him banned from trading on Hong Kong's stock exchange. And finally, they ask what this could mean politically for the Chinese government. Sign up for our new weekly newsletter dissecting the big themes in markets, business and the economy at www.economist.com/moneytalksFor full access to print, digital and audio editions, subscribe to The Economist at www.economist.com/podcastoffer Our GDPR privacy policy was updated on August 8, 2022. Visit acast.com/privacy for more information.
Mortgage boycotts that began in Jiangxi, China have spread to nearly 100 cities across the country, threatening over 320 real estate projects. They add more trouble to a property market that was already in turmoil and portend future pain in the world's second largest economy.On this week's episode, hosts Mike Bird, Soumaya Keynes and Alice Fulwood are joined by our China economics editor, Simon Cox, and our China business and finance editor, Don Weinland, to find what's causing the crisis. First, University of California San Diego assistant professor Victor Shih explains why the roots of this crisis go as far back as the early 1990s. Then, investor Andrew Left re-evaluates his report from 2012 in which he said the now-bankrupt Evergrande - once China's second-largest property developer - was a fraud. The call got him banned from trading on Hong Kong's stock exchange. And finally, they ask what this could mean politically for the Chinese government. Sign up for our new weekly newsletter dissecting the big themes in markets, business and the economy at www.economist.com/moneytalksFor full access to print, digital and audio editions, subscribe to The Economist at www.economist.com/podcastoffer Our GDPR privacy policy was updated on August 8, 2022. Visit acast.com/privacy for more information.
Autocrat, dictator, and socialist. These are just some of the terms that could be used to describe three of Latin America's most controversial leaders - Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega, Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro, and Cuba's Miguel Diaz-Canel. Despite several elections which in some cases have seen opponents win, they remain in power. This is a cause for concern as other countries such as El Salvador begin to see the erosion of democratic institutions. With the three leaders not on good terms with the Biden administration, they have not been extended invitations to the IX Summit of the Americas. Richard Feinberg moderates a panel of Javier Corrales, William LeoGrande, and Victor Shih to discuss why these three leaders are still in power. Series: "Institute of the Americas" [Public Affairs] [Show ID: 38106]
Autocrat, dictator, and socialist. These are just some of the terms that could be used to describe three of Latin America's most controversial leaders - Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega, Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro, and Cuba's Miguel Diaz-Canel. Despite several elections which in some cases have seen opponents win, they remain in power. This is a cause for concern as other countries such as El Salvador begin to see the erosion of democratic institutions. With the three leaders not on good terms with the Biden administration, they have not been extended invitations to the IX Summit of the Americas. Richard Feinberg moderates a panel of Javier Corrales, William LeoGrande, and Victor Shih to discuss why these three leaders are still in power. Series: "Institute of the Americas" [Public Affairs] [Show ID: 38106]
Autocrat, dictator, and socialist. These are just some of the terms that could be used to describe three of Latin America's most controversial leaders - Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega, Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro, and Cuba's Miguel Diaz-Canel. Despite several elections which in some cases have seen opponents win, they remain in power. This is a cause for concern as other countries such as El Salvador begin to see the erosion of democratic institutions. With the three leaders not on good terms with the Biden administration, they have not been extended invitations to the IX Summit of the Americas. Richard Feinberg moderates a panel of Javier Corrales, William LeoGrande, and Victor Shih to discuss why these three leaders are still in power. Series: "Institute of the Americas" [Public Affairs] [Show ID: 38106]
Autocrat, dictator, and socialist. These are just some of the terms that could be used to describe three of Latin America's most controversial leaders - Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega, Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro, and Cuba's Miguel Diaz-Canel. Despite several elections which in some cases have seen opponents win, they remain in power. This is a cause for concern as other countries such as El Salvador begin to see the erosion of democratic institutions. With the three leaders not on good terms with the Biden administration, they have not been extended invitations to the IX Summit of the Americas. Richard Feinberg moderates a panel of Javier Corrales, William LeoGrande, and Victor Shih to discuss why these three leaders are still in power. Series: "Institute of the Americas" [Public Affairs] [Show ID: 38106]
Autocrat, dictator, and socialist. These are just some of the terms that could be used to describe three of Latin America's most controversial leaders - Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega, Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro, and Cuba's Miguel Diaz-Canel. Despite several elections which in some cases have seen opponents win, they remain in power. This is a cause for concern as other countries such as El Salvador begin to see the erosion of democratic institutions. With the three leaders not on good terms with the Biden administration, they have not been extended invitations to the IX Summit of the Americas. Richard Feinberg moderates a panel of Javier Corrales, William LeoGrande, and Victor Shih to discuss why these three leaders are still in power. Series: "Institute of the Americas" [Public Affairs] [Show ID: 38106]
After two long months, Shanghai's brutal lockdown is over in name, but Xi Jinping is telling officials to ‘unswervingly adhere’ to Zero COVID, despite the costs. Shanghai’s lockdown brought chaos to global supply chains and torpedoed China’s once-sacred economic growth targets. It’s also taken a toll on the city’s residents; once the nation’s most privileged, they had a front row seat to the arbitrary nature of government decrees. To unpack what happens next, Louisa and Graeme are joined by Jennifer Pak, the Shanghai-based correspondent for Marketplace and Victor Shih, political economist at the University of California, San Diego whose new book Coalitions of the Weak: Elite Politics in China from Mao’s Stratagem to the Rise of Xi is just out. Image: c/- Wikimedia Commons. Hubei medical team aid Shanghai COVID-19 community testing on 4 April 2022. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzrsLxGy9Gg See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
China's latest economic data show the lowest GDP growth expectation in 30 years, rising unemployment, and slowing industrial production in part due to strict COVID-19 lockdowns. Victor Shih joins Deep Dish to explain how inflation and the war in Ukraine will compound this decline, what it means for the Chinese Communist Party and Xi Jinping's leadership, and whether Xi's demand for China to match the United States' growth in 2022 is possible. Don't forget to leave us a review!
The annual meetings of the National People's Congress (NPC) and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), colloquially known as the “Two Sessions” or “Lianghui,” feature the gathering of political leaders in Beijing each spring to announce plans and goals for the coming year. In 2022, amidst heightened global tensions, the continuing pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the 20th Party Congress coming in the fall, China's domestic political events may hold even greater significance for the world than usual. What does the 2022 Two Sessions meeting suggest about China's priorities in 2022 and beyond? Will the tightening in sectors including education, real estate, and investment initiated in 2021 continue? In an interview conducted on March 11, 2022, Political economist and U.C. San Diego Professor Victor Shih shares insights and analyses of the Two Sessions and what this year's meetings may indicate about China's domestic and foreign policy going forward.
Olivia Enos interviews Victor Shih, Ph.D., on the UCSD 21st Century China Center China Data Lab's CCP Elites portal. Dr. Shih is an Associate Professor of Political Economy and the Ho Miu Lam Chair in China and Pacific Relations at the UC San Diego. Click here to view more of the China Data Lab's research and projects.Click here to read Heritage Visiting Fellow Michael Cunningham's commentary on China's new rules that aim to strengthen the government's ideological oversight of the entertainment sector. Keep an eye out for Michael's commentary on the CCP's 6th Plenum!Check out The Heritage Foundation's annual China Transparency Report, highlighting the work of experts all across the world who are dedicated to helping us better understand the aims and activities of the CCP, as well as the China Transparency Project website. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
Olivia Enos interviews Victor Shih, Ph.D., on the UCSD 21st Century China Center China Data Lab’s CCP Elites portal. Dr. Shih is an Associate Professor of Political Economy and the Ho Miu Lam Chair in China and Pacific Relations at the UC San Diego. Click here to view more of the China Data Lab’s research […]
China's real estate giant Evergrande has been making headlines for a while now. Having accumulated more than 300 billion USD in debt, Evergrande – one of the largest property developers on earth – is at the brink of collapse. On Monday, trading of Evergrande's shares was suspended on the Hong Kong stock exchange. The week before, it missed a key bond interest payment. What has caused this pressure on Evergrande? What consequences would an insolvency entail for China's real estate and financial markets? What kind of toolkit does the Chinese government now have at its disposal to manage the situation? In this podcast, MERICS Director Communications and Publications Claudia Wessling talks with Victor Shih of UC San Diego. He is an expert on Chinese banking and fiscal policies and has recently published an edited book titled “Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Stability.”
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On May 30, we invited Dr Victor Shih, UC San Diego professor and expert on China’s political economy, to discuss the outcome of the Two Sessions of the 2020 National People's Congress (NPC). Dr Shih shared three takeaways. In part I of this double episode, Dr Shih covers the decision by the Central Government to focus on supply-side stimulus and subsidies targeted at new economy and technology sectors, as opposed to demand-side stimulus seen in the U.S. and some European countries. With a drop-off in global consumption due to locked-down economies, many Chinese factories will struggle to find markets for their goods — even with increased production capacity. Additionally, the collapse of fiscal revenues at the local level result in inadequate government action. With potential blind spots in current government measures, some kind of demand-side relief is inevitable if the recession persists. Against the backdrop of growing U.S.-China tensions, Dr Shih addressed a question on the potential impact of financial sections on Hong Kong. He touched on the strength of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) U.S. dollar facility and what he considers more at stake to be China’s large-scale borrowing through interbank channels. He stressed that what matters more are international financial institutions’ exposure to China. He continued onto China’s debt issues and the reluctance of China’s central bank to introduce more quantitative easing for fear of capital outflows. The episode ends here and moves onto the National Security Legislation in Hong Kong in the next episode. — Victor Shih is an associate professor of political economy and has published widely on the politics of Chinese banking policies, fiscal policies and exchange rates. He was the first analyst to identify the risk of massive local government debt, and is the author of “Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation.” Prior to joining UC San Diego, Shih was a professor of political science at Northwestern University and former principal for The Carlyle Group. Shih is currently engaged in a study of how the coalition-formation strategies of founding leaders had a profound impact on the evolution of the Chinese Communist Party. He is also constructing a large database on biographical information of elites in China. — The YCW Podcast is a monthly podcast series by Young China Watchers. We’re a global community of young professionals, providing a platform to discuss the most pressing issues emerging from China today. We organize events with China experts in our 10 chapters across Asia, Europe and the U.S., fostering the next generation of China thought leaders. Download and follow our podcast on Spotify, iTunes, Google Play Music or your usual podcasting platform. Produced by Sam Colombie, with support from Johanna Costigan and Joshua Cartwright. Music: ‘We Build With Rubber Bands’, ‘Dirty Wallpaper’ by Blue Dot Sessions. For any suggestions, recommendations or other notes, please email us at editor@youngchinawatchers.com.
On May 30, we invited Dr Victor Shih, UC San Diego professor and expert on China’s political economy, to discuss the outcome of the Two Sessions of the 2020 National People's Congress (NPC). Dr Shih shared three takeaways. Part 2 of this double episode captures a lively debate with YCW members on the controversial National Security Legislation (NSL) that was introduced for Hong Kong. Dr Shih started by explaining why the most concerning aspect of the NSL is the unrestricted operation of Mainland Chinese offices in the territory. He described the potential impact on civil society and the investment climate in the city, in particular the lack of recourse and the legal repercussions of shorting state-owned enterprises. On potential further sanctions by the U.S., Dr Shih analyzed several options, from visa restrictions and sanctions on individuals, to a ceiling on the borrowing by Chinese companies on the international market. Asked what the timeline for implementation of the NSL looks like, Victor was pessimistic and compared the situation to the dismantling of civil society in mainland China in the late '50s, only at a much faster pace. Dr Shih next commented on the remarks by the Chairman of the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX) that the NSL will preserve the long term economic stability of the city, and the underlying appeal to the financial world. He debunked the narrative that Hong Kong’s unrest has hurt its financial market but believes that the NSL will have a much larger negative impact. He then discussed the phenomenon of China’s 'wolf warrior diplomacy' and the decline of Beijing's political factions into irrelevance. Both of which he described as a sign of an emerging Xi Jinping dictatorship. Dr Shih ended the episode with an introduction of his upcoming book 'Coalition of the Weak,' which is about senior-level appointments in the late Mao period and what that tells us about Xi's motivation to elevate officials with narrow political networks and other weaknesses onto the national stage. — Victor Shih is an associate professor of political economy and has published widely on the politics of Chinese banking policies, fiscal policies and exchange rates. He was the first analyst to identify the risk of massive local government debt, and is the author of “Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation.” Prior to joining UC San Diego, Shih was a professor of political science at Northwestern University and former principal for The Carlyle Group. Shih is currently engaged in a study of how the coalition-formation strategies of founding leaders had a profound impact on the evolution of the Chinese Communist Party. He is also constructing a large database on biographical information of elites in China. — The YCW Podcast is a monthly podcast series by Young China Watchers. We’re a global community of young professionals, providing a platform to discuss the most pressing issues emerging from China today. We organize events with China experts in our 10 chapters across Asia, Europe and the U.S., fostering the next generation of China thought leaders. Download and follow our podcast on Spotify, iTunes, Google Play Music or your usual podcasting platform. Produced by Sam Colombie, with support from Johanna Costigan and Joshua Cartwright. Music: ‘We Build With Rubber Bands’, ‘Dirty Wallpaper’ by Blue Dot Sessions. For any suggestions, recommendations or other notes, please email us at editor@youngchinawatchers.com.
China's plan to impose its new so-called security law in Hong Kong may flout the territories legal independence. Some say it may jeopardise Hong Kong's status as Asia's largest financial hub. Hedge fund manager Edward Chin tells Ed Butler that the new law will mean an end to the principle of "one country, two systems" and may lead to companies leaving the territory. Victor Shih, an expert in Chinese banking and finance based at the University of San Diego, says it could have a much more detrimental effect on China's banking system and the country's access to the world's financial markets. But James Crabtree from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore, thinks Beijing has taken a cool headed decision and is willing to sacrifice some business for the sake of political stability. (Picture: A Hong Kong anti-government protester raises a hand; Credit: Anna Wang/Reuters)
Since the novel coronavirus outbreak in the megacity of Wuhan in December 2019, lockdowns were also implemented across China’s vast countryside, home to more than 700 million people.Dr. Scott Rozelle, senior fellow at Stanford University FSI and co-director of the Rural Education Action Program, presents his latest study to assess the effects of local and nationwide disease control measures on the economy, social life and health of China’s rural population.This was recorded from a May 6th webinar, to view the full presentation, visit china.ucsd.edu or via YouTubeWebinar moderator: Victor Shih, UC San Diego Editor/Host: Samuel Tsoi, UC San Diego Music: Dave Liang/Shanghai Restoration Project
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A teleconference on the economic consequences of novel coronavirus' (COVID-19) wide and rapid spread across China. As the origin of the global outbreak, China's economic state offers us a glimpse of what may come to pass in other economies as the virus continues to spread worldwide. Featuring: Dr. David Dollar, Senior Fellow of Foreign Policy, Global Economy, and Development, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution David Dollar is a leading expert on China's economy and U.S.-China economic relations. From 2009 to 2013, Dollar was the U.S. Treasury’s economic and financial emissary to China, based in Beijing, facilitating the macroeconomic and financial policy dialogue between the United States and China. Dr. Victor Shih, Ho Miu Lam Chair in China and Pacific Relations, Associate Professor, School of Global Policy & Strategy, UC San Diego Victor Shih is an associate professor of political economy and has published widely on the politics of Chinese banking policies, fiscal policies and exchange rates. Moderator: Dr. Sara Hsu, Founder and CEO, China Rising Capital Forecast Dr. Hsu is a former economics professor and CEO of China Rising. She has written many books and articles on the Chinese economy and financial system, focusing on Chinese shadow banking, informal finance, and fintech.
Wang Dan 王丹 speaks with Victor Shih on the lessons from the 1989 student democracy movement. They discuss Wang’s journey as a young student leading up to the Tiananmen Square protests and his life since. Wang describes his mission for Dialogue China - and the discussions he’s fostering about prospects of political reform and preparing citizens for potential crisis at the Chinese Communist Party.In 1987, Wang Dan was admitted into Peking University. In school, Wang hosted the “Democracy Salon” regularly. In 1989, he participated and organised the 1989 democracy movement, and was one of the people who went on to the hunger strike. After the Tiananmen crackdown, Wang becomes the most wanted person by the government and was jailed until he was released in 1998 by the government under international pressure and was exiled to the United States.Wang was nominated for Nobel Peace Prize for three times and was awarded several other prizes. In 1998, he began to study at Harvard University, and he earned a History PhD in 2008. From 2008 to 2009, Wang was a visiting scholar at the Oxford University. From 2009 to 2017, he was teaching at colleges in Taiwan, including National Tsinghua University. Wang published “Prison Memoir of Wang Dan”, “Fifteen Lessons of the History of the People’s Republic of China”, “June 4th Memo”, and other 20 books ranging from politics, history, to literature. He was awarded the World Chinese Literature Award. He delivered a public lecture at UC San Diego in 2019 on the Past and Future of Political Reform in China.Victor Shih is the Ho Miu Lam Chair in China and Pacific Relations and associate professor of political economy at UC San Diego School of Global Policy & Strategy. His latest book is “Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation”.Editor/Host: Samuel Tsoi, UC San Diego Music: Dave Liang/Shanghai Restoration Project
February 19, 2020 Since several weeks, China is struggling with a severe coronavirus outbreak. China’s regime and its leader Xi Jinping are facing huge criticism in handling the crisis – both internally and internationally. Given this situation, questions arise on how an authoritarian state deals with such a crisis. Can China control an epidemic from the top down? What are the political and economic impacts? Where are potential pathways to instability? And what are currently the most important factors for stability in China? Which measures has the CCP taken so far and do they demonstrate strength or weakness of the system? How much time is left if it doesn’t want to fall from power? And what is at stake for Xi Jinping? In this episode of our MERICS Experts podcast, Victor Shih, one of the leading experts for elite politics in China, Associate Professor at the University of California, San Diego, and editor of the recently published book “Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Stability”, discusses these and other questions at stake with Kerstin Lohse-Friedrich, Director of Communications at MERICS.
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Despite little foreshadowing before he took office, President Xi Jinping has emerged as perhaps the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. This was reinforced in March 2018 when China’s National People’s Congress voted overwhelmingly to abolish presidential term limits, as had been stipulated under the 1982 PRC Constitution, a feature which had been understood to be critical to the new political settlement after the Cultural Revolution. In this episode, Neysun Mahboubi discusses with UC San Diego political scientist Victor Shih the implications of Xi Jinping’s apparent longterm rule for Chinese governance—including for policymaking and bureaucratic incentives, for both domestic and foreign entrepreneurship, and ultimately for the very durability of Chinese Communist Party rule. The episode was recorded on April 26, 2018. Victor Shih is an associate professor of political economy, and the Ho Miu Lam Chair in China and Pacific Relations, at the School of Global Policy & Strategy at UC San Diego. He has published widely on the politics of Chinese banking policies, fiscal policies and exchange rates, and he was the first analyst to identify the risk of massive local government debt in China. His book Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation (Cambridge University Press, 2012) draws on his training in elite politics, as well as detailed statistical analysis, in providing the classic account of how the Chinese banking sector really works. Professor Shih’s new edited book, Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Stability: Duration, Financial Condition, and Institutions, is in production at the University of Michigan Press. Prior to joining UC San Diego, he was a professor of political science at Northwestern University, and also served as a principal for The Carlyle Group. He is active on Twitter, where you can follow him @vshih2. Sound engineering: Nirvan West and Neysun Mahboubi Music credit: "Salt" by Poppy Ackroyd, follow her at http://poppyackroyd.com
Andy Rothman speaks with Victor Shih on the opportunities and volatility of investing in the People's Republic and the outlook on China's impact on global economic growth. They discuss the risk of including China's bonds and SOEs in passive indices, the challenge of data verification and spurring entrepreneurship, how to actively look for the dynamic industries and avoid risks, and the rebalancing of the economy towards services and consumption. Andy Rothman is an Investment Strategist at Matthews Asia. He has a leading role in shaping and presenting the firm’s thoughts on how China should be viewed at the country, regional and global level. He is the author of the Sinology investment analysis column. Rothman lived and worked in China for more than 20 years, analyzing the country’s economic and political environment. Rothman's Sinology column mentioned in the podcast is entitled: "Has the China Collapse Finally Arrived?" Victor Shih is the Ho Miu Lam Chair in China and Pacific Relations and associate professor of political economy at UC San Diego School of Global Policy & Strategy. His latest book is Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation. This episode was recorded at UC San Diego, and is a production of the 21st Century China Center Editor: Samuel Tsoi Production Support: Mike Fausner Music: Dave Liang/Shanghai Restoration Project
Victor Shih, associate professor of political economy at UC San Diego, on how the interest payments alone on China's debt servicing is 22% of the country's GDP. Chris Nagi, Executive Editor: Equities for Bloomberg, on big brokers including Morgan Stanley and UBS Group, forming a new stock market to compete with the NYSE, Nasdaq and Cboe. Kit Konolige, Senior Utilities Industry Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, on PG&E mulling bankruptcy, and what the most likely outcome is. David Katz, President and CIO of Matrix Asset Advisors, on his current investment outlook, and why he's adding to Apple. Hosted by Pimm Foxx and Lisa Abramowicz.
As President Trump’s team continues trade negotiations in Beijing this week, we bring you this recently recorded conversation between GPS professors Natalia Ramondo, Barry Naughton and Victor Shih. They discuss the current threat of tariffs by both countries, and implications on multilateral trade norms, the effectiveness of Chinese industrial policy and American innovation strategy. Natalia Ramondo is an associate professor of economics at GPS, Barry Naughton is the Sokwanlok professor of international affairs, and Victor Shih is the Ho Miu Lam professor of political science. This episode was recorded at UC San Diego Editor: Samuel Tsoi Production Support: Mike Fausner, Lara Sievert Music: Dave Liang/Shanghai Restoration Project
21st Century China Center faculty reflect on Sunday's announcement by Chinese Communist Party to end term limits on the presidency, clearing the way for President Xi Jinping to stay in power indefinitely. Even in the context of the party's authoritarian rule, it is a significant break from rules established in the 1980s to prevent the country from returning to the days when Mao Zedong dominated every sphere of the political system. Susan Shirk is the chair of the 21st Century China Center, Barry Naughton is the Sokwanlok professor of international affairs, and Victor Shih is the Ho Miu Lam professor of political science, and Lei Guang is the Director of the 21st Century China Center. This episode was recorded at UC San Diego Host & Editor: Samuel Tsoi Production Support: Mike Fausner, Lei Guang Music: Dave Liang/Shanghai Restoration Project
Grant’s welcomes Victor Shih, associate professor at The University of California, San Diego, to discuss that crucial question. 0:40 The #Steinhoff Saga 6:47 Is #China set up for near term financial calamity? 9:12 Debt service rising faster than #GDP 13:13 We owe it to ourselves 17:30 Economic rebound ahead of the #19th Party Congress Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com
22 July 2016, with Victor Shih For years China was led by consensus – factions in the upper echelons of power were carefully calibrated to keep a balance. But with Xi Jinping all that has changed, says Victor Shih of the University of California, San Diego. Since Xi’s faction within the Central Committee is still rather small, he established a number of new leading small groups to strengthen his influence on policy making. At the 19th party congress next year Xi could now try to shrink the size of the powerful Politburo Standing Committee to obtain absolute power within the CCP. That’s Victor Shih in the latest Merics Experts Podcast.
22 July 2016, with Victor Shih For years China was led by consensus – factions in the upper echelons of power were carefully calibrated to keep a balance. But with Xi Jinping all that has changed, says Victor Shih of the University of California, San Diego. Since Xi’s faction within the Central Committee is still rather small, he established a number of new leading small groups to strengthen his influence on policy making. At the 19th party congress next year Xi could now try to shrink the size of the powerful Politburo Standing Committee to obtain absolute power within the CCP. That’s Victor Shih in the latest Merics Experts Podcast.
Professor Victor Shih speaks with Ken Wilcox of Silicon Valley Bank on the lessons learned from running a joint-venture with a state-owned bank and how banking practices have evolved during recent financial crises in China. Victor Shih is a leading expert in examining the intersection of China’s elite politics and the People’s Republic’s financial policies. He has written widely on the topic and teaches a course at UC San Diego on Financing the Chinese Economic Miracle. Not only does Professor Shih have an authoritative voice on the subject, he has gain a following on Twitter for his interesting takes on China’s politics and economy. You can join over 12,000 others on Twitter by following him @vshih2 Ken Wilcox is the Emeritus Chairman at Silicon Valley Bank. He previously served as CEO of SVB Financial Group. In that role, he successfully pursued a strategy of expansion into China. In 2011, he made the key decision to relocate to Shanghai to lead a joint-venture with the state-owned Shanghai Pudong Development Bank that proved to be a critical factor in SVB’s pioneering role in expanding financial services in the innovation sector, and SVB’s overall success in China. Mr. Wilcox was on the board of directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and he still serves on several corporate and nonprofit boards, including the Asia Society of Northern California. He is also an adjunct professor at Fudan University in Shanghai. Among many other accolades, Mr. Wilcox was honored by the Shanghai Municipal Government with the “Magnolia Silver Award”, a municipal honor given to expatriates for their outstanding contribution to the city's economic, social or cultural development. China 21 is produced by the 21st Century China Program, at UC San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy. This podcast features expert voices, insights and stories about China’s economy, politics, society, and the implications for international affairs. Learn more at china.ucsd.edu This episode was recorded at UC San Diego Studio Ten300 Host: Samuel Tsoi Editors: Mike Fausner, Anthony King Production Support: Lei Guang, Susan Shirk, Amy Robinson, Sarah Pfledderer, Michelle Fredricks Music: Dave Liang/Shanghai Restoration Project
Although China has some of the world’s lowest level of foreign debt and official government debt, the Chinese government and state owned banks and enterprises actually owe an enormous amount of debt to domestic financial institutions and households. In this presentation, Victor Shih, Associate Professor of Political Science at Northwestern University, first catalogs the different segments of debt owed by the Chinese government and related entities. He then examines the claimants on this debt and then discusses some implications for future public policies in China.
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