Political Economy with James Pethokoukis

Today on Political Economy, I talk with Derek Scissors about what the Trump Administration's newly-declared tariffs mean for US-China relations and what to make of today's economic uncertainty.Derek is a senior fellow here at AEI, where he focuses on US-Asia economic relations. He is the chief economist of the China Beige Book and previously served as a commissioner on the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission. He is also the author of the China Global Investment Tracker.

Today on Political Economy, I talk with Mark Warshawsky about the state of the Social Security system as we size up some of the reforms currently on the table.

The arc of human history is a story of economics. Social values, human behavior, and the defining events of history are all woven into this field that seeks to explain how and why societies prosper — and why they often don't.Today on Political Economy, I talk with Andrew Leigh about the economic lessons we miss in history class and what we gain from a basic understanding of how our economy works.Leigh is a member of the Australian House of Representatives and serves as the Assistant Minister for Competition, Charities, and Treasury. His 2024 book, HowEconomics Explains the World: A Short History of Humanity, is the latest of his 11 books on economics, leadership, and public policy.

Today on Political Economy, Michael Strain and I discuss the key challenges currently facing the American economy; namely, the growing debt burden, lingering inflation, the market response to tariffs, and general uncertainty.Strain is the director of Economic Policy Studies and the Arthur F. Burns Scholar in Political Economy here at AEI. He has published dozens of articles in leading academic and policy journals in addition to his 2020 book, The American Dream is Not Dead. He is a professor at Georgetown University's McCourt School of Public Policy and a research fellow at the Institute for the Study of Labor.

Energy, transportation, housing — pro-growth advocates from Washington to Silicon Valley are calling for a revival of American infrastructure. They say, “It's time to build.”One massive problem, however: decades of environmental regulation, such as the National Environmental Policy Act, have slowed these efforts to a snail's pace, if not halted them altogether.Today on Political Economy, I talk with James Coleman about the kinds of policy reforms need before we can build.Coleman is a nonresident senior fellow here at AEI. Concurrently, he is also a scholar of energy law at the University of Minnesota, where he specializes in North American energy infrastructure, transport, and trade. He previously taught law at Southern Methodist University, the University of Calgary, and Harvard Law School.

The US government has acted as major contributor to science research since the mid-20th century, both in terms of broad basic research and targeted projects. As industrial policy has gained traction, especially during the Biden Administration, the distinction between industrial and science policy has become increasingly obscure. Hybrid policies like the CHIPS and Science Act have spurred continued debate surrounding role and value of federal funding for science research. Today on Political Economy, I talk to Tony Mills about American science policy past, present, and future.Mills is a senior fellow here at AEI and director of the Center for Technology, Science, and Energy. He is also a senior fellow at the Pepperdine School of Public Policy and a scholar associate of the Society of Catholic Scientists. His new paper, “Recovering Science Policy,” explores the blurred lines between US industrial and science policy in today's political landscape.

Computer chips are the driving force behind everything from smartphones and cars to military defense systems and artificial intelligence. Not only are they the essential element of modern digital infrastructure, they are a critical element in the global balance of power.Taiwan is home to the most advanced and productive chip plants in the world, precariously placing the technology between Communist China and the democratic West. In today's geopolitical landscape, control over semiconductor supply chains is more than just an economic issue; it's a matter of national security. Today on Political Economy, I'm talking with Chris Miller, author of Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology.Miller is a nonresident senior fellow here at AEI, where his research focuses on Russian foreign policy, politics, economics, as well as Eurasian geopolitics and the geopolitics of technology. He is an assistant professor of international history and co-director of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He is also the director of the Eurasia program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Growth is good for everyone in an economy, but it is also inherently disruptive. Today on Political Economy, I talk to Glenn Hubbard about why fear of change can trap us in an economic zero-sum game, and how embracing the growing pains of innovation can free us from that scenario, making things better for everybody.Hubbard is a nonresident senior fellow here at AEI, where he writes about a wide range of economic topics, from poverty to international finance. He is the former dean of Columbia Business School, and currently serves as the director of the Jerome A. Chazen Institute for Global Business.

The Biden administration has set ambitious goals to decrease US carbon emissions. Starting in 2022, the Inflation Reduction Act granted clean energy tax credits to businesses in hopes of encouraging a greener economy.Kyle and Shuting Pomerleau see a carbon tax as a superior approach. To offset any regressive effects, they propose a revenue swap, using the income from the tax to directly finance an expanded child tax credit. Today on Political Economy, I talk to the Pomerleaus about their innovative policy proposal, and why a carbon tax might be a powerful, multifaceted solution.Shuting Pomerleau is the deputy director of climate policy at the Niskanen Center. She has previously worked at the Cato Institute and the American Council on Renewable Energy.Kyle Pomerleau is a senior fellow at AEI, where he studies federal tax policy. He was previously chief economist and vice president of economic analysis at the Tax Foundation.

American families are getting smaller, even as parents spend more time parenting; and while quality of life has ostensibly gone up, our willingness to bring children into our abundant world has seemingly gone down. Economists try to pinpoint market explanations and propose policy solutions to the falling birthrate, but Tim Carney has a more basic explanation for our shrinking, stressed-out families. Today I talk with Carney about his recent book, Family Unfriendly: How Our Culture Made Raising Kids Much Harder Than It Needs to Be.Carney is a senior fellow here at AEI, as well as a senior columnist at the Washington Examiner. In addition to Family Unfriendly, he is the author of Alienated America and The Big Ripoff.

The US dollar is the dominant global currency, but is it possible that the dollar could one day lose its top-tier status? And, if so, would that necessarily be a bad thing? To find out the answers to those and other questions, I asked AEI's Steven Kamin.Kamin's research at AEI centers on international macroeconomics and finance. Prior to AEI, Kamin worked at the Federal Reserve as director of the Division of International Finance.

When it comes to deploying a new technology, there are no guarantees. While developers and policymakers do their best to minimize risk, innovation always requires a leap of faith. The policy debate around artificial intelligence seems to be a guessing game on all sides. Today, I talk with Bronwyn Howell about how we should be thinking about regulating AI, based on what we know from recent history, and acknowledging AI's great unpredictability.Howell is a nonresident senior fellow here at AEI. She is also a faculty member of the Wellington School of Business and Government at Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand and a senior research fellow at the Public Utilities Research Center at the University of Florida. Her research centers on regulation, development, and implementation of new technologies, as well as technology use in the health sector.

The Child Tax Credit is a tax benefit available to many American families for the purpose of reducing their federal income tax liability. It's specifically designed to help offset the cost of raising children. The CTC of today, however, differs starkly from its pre-pandemic structure. Many economists, including Kevin Corinth, think that the post-pandemic changes were a step in the wrong direction.Corinth is a senior fellow and the deputy director of the Center on Opportunity and Social Mobility here at AEI. His research interests include poverty, safety net programs, homelessness, social capital, and economic mobility. Previously, Corinth served as the staff director of the congressional Joint Economic Committee, and he was also chief economist in the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

Generation after generation seem to pine for “the good old days,” an elusive time when many of us think morals, institutions, and the quality of life, in general, were higher. Americans are no exception to this rule, but there's something unique about American nostalgia. While we reminisce about the past, we also owe much of our success as a nation to our forward-thinking culture that embraces the possibility of the American Dream. Today on Political Economy, I talk with Karlyn Bowman about the way Americans view their nation, and the tensions between their love of their past and their strong hope for the future.Bowman is a distinguished senior fellow emeritus here at AEI, where she specializes on American public opinion. In 1982, she founded “Election Watch,” the longest-running political analysis program in Washington. She has also been a Forbes columnist since 2008.

Medicare is a trillion-dollar federal health insurance program designed to meet the medical needs of senior citizens and Americans with disabilities. Yet, despite its staggering amount of funding, Medicare is far from a perfect system. Here on Political Economy, I sit down with Joe Antos to discuss the current state of Medicare and its systemic challenges.Antos is a senior fellow here at AEI where he studies the economics of health policy. He is currently Vice Chair and serving a third term as commissioner at the Maryland Health Services Cost Review Commission. He is also a professor of emergency medicine at George Washington University.

Milton Friedman was one of the most influential economists of the 20th century, right alongside John Maynard Keynes. His work pushed economic thought toward free markets in the 1970s and 1980s. His passionate defense of capitalism and economic freedom had global appeal right through the present day. As such, the closing decades of the 20th century have been termed "The Age of Friedman," yet commentators have sought to hold him responsible for both the rising prosperity and rising inequality of recent times.Jennifer Burns is a professor at Stanford University, where she teaches 20th century American history. Her research focuses on how capitalism and the power of the market have influenced the American Political Economy. Burns' new book is Milton Friedman: The Last Conservative.

Over the past 40 years, children born to parents without college degrees have become less and less likely to grow up with the advantages of a two-parent home. This trend is perpetuating inequality between college-educated and non-college-educated families. To talk about this issue, I've invited on Melissa Kearney. Melissa is the Neil Moskowitz Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland and a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institute. Her new book is The Two-Parent Privilege: How the Decline in Marriage Has Increased Inequality and Lowered Social Mobility, and What We Can Do about It.

From the dawn of agriculture in Jericho to the artistic achievements of the Italian Renaissance in Florence, what lessons can we learn from great cities throughout history? What factors give rise to periods of innovation and creativity? In this episode of Political Economy, Chelsea Follett previews her new book, Centers of Progress: 40 Cities That Changed the World.Chelsea is a policy analyst at the Cato Institute and managing editor of HumanProgress.org.

In the early 20th century, the idea that "big is bad" drove a muscular federal antitrust policy that viewed large corporations with suspicion. Then, in the 1980s, the Federal Trade Commission began to incorporate the lessons of economics, considering the welfare of consumers. Today, the Biden FTC wants to undo the last 40 years of antitrust policy, which it sees as a "failed experiment." Is the Biden administration right? To answer that question, I've brought on Timothy J. Muris.Tim is a visiting senior fellow here at the American Enterprise Institute and foundation professor at the Antonin Scalia Law School at George Mason University. He served as chairman of the Federal Trade Commission under President George W. Bush. Tim's latest report for AEI is "Neo-Brandeisian Antitrust: Repeating History's Mistakes."

Does the typical American family today enjoy better living standards compared to 1985? We may have bigger TVs in our living rooms and smartphones in our pockets, but a recent report from Washington, DC, think tank the American Compass suggests the cost of a thriving, middle-class lifestyle has risen over the past generation. To discuss what that report gets right and where it falls short, I'm joined today by Jeremy Horpedahl.Jeremy is an associate professor of economics at the University of Central Arkansas. He's also the co-author, along with AEI's Scott Winship, of the recent report, "The Cost of Thriving Has Fallen: Correcting and Rejecting the American Compass Cost-of-Thriving Index." That report argues a better methodology shows modest gains for the typical American family.

Recent results from the National Assessment of Educational Progress, often called “the nation's report card,” reveal the dire state of American education. The pandemic hit students hard, but it also presents educators and policymakers with an opportunity to rethink our schools. To discuss that, I've brought my colleague Rick Hess back on Political Economy.Rick is a Senior Fellow and Director of Education Policy Studies here at the American Enterprise Institute. He's also the author of several fantastic books, the latest of which is the recently released The Great School Rethink.

In this episode of Political Economy, I sit down with economist Leah Boustan to explore the truth behind the prevailing narratives that surround America's immigration policy debates. Are immigrants truly responsible for job loss among native-born Americans? Does immigration burden the US economy? And do today's immigrants assimilate less rapidly than their predecessors? We'll delve into those questions and more.Leah is a Professor of Economics at Princeton University, where she also serves as the Director of the Industrial Relations Section. Last year, she and Ran Abramitzky wrote the fantastic book Streets of Gold: America's Untold Story of Immigrant Success.

Republicans in the House recently struck a deal with the Biden administration to raise the debt ceiling. But Washington debates over discretionary spending shouldn't overshadow the hard conversations we need to have about America's entitlement spending. Andrew Biggs joins this episode of Political Economy to discuss his ideas for Social Security reform.Andrew is a senior fellow here at the American Enterprise Institute, where he studies Social Security reform, state and local government pensions, and public sector pay and benefits.

We hear a lot about student debt in the news these days, but why has college gotten so expensive to begin with? My colleague Beth Akers joins Political Economy to discuss that question and to weigh in on the Biden administration's moratorium on student loan repayment.Beth is a senior fellow here at the American Enterprise Institute, where her work focuses on the economics of higher education.

The Democratic and Republican parties have experienced substantial shifts in recent years, from each party's demographic makeup to its policy priorities. To explore that realignment and to consider the future of American political coalitions, I'm joined by my AEI colleague Ruy Teixeira.Ruy is a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he focuses on the transformation of party coalitions and the future of American electoral politics.

As artificial intelligence continues to develop, many workers fear the disruptive potential of a fast-changing job market. How will AI impact the economy and how can workers prepare for the future? Today, my AEI colleague Brent Orrell joins Political Economy to answer those questions and more.Brent is a senior fellow here at AEI, where he works on job training and workforce development. He's also host of the Hardly Working podcast.

There is a growing sense of pessimism that the American Dream is dying. Marriage rates are declining and fewer children are being born. Are economics behind this nationwide shift, or something else? I'm joined for today's episode of Political Economy by my AEI colleague Angela Rachidi to talk about her research into whether raising a family has become unaffordable.Angela is a senior fellow and the Rowe Scholar in poverty studies here at AEI, where she studies the effects of federal safety-net programs on low-income people in America. Angela is also author of the forthcoming report, “The Evidence on Family Affordability” for AEI.

Here at the American Enterprise Institute we've launched a new Center on Opportunity and Social Mobility as part of our American Dream Initiative. Former AEI scholar Kevin Corinth has returned to the Institute to serve as deputy director. In this special episode of Political Economy, I'm sitting down with Kevin to hear more about this new center, as well as Kevin's recent work.Kevin is a Senior Fellow and the Deputy Director of the Center on Opportunity and Social Mobility here at AEI. He previously served as the Chief Economist in the White House's Council of Economic Advisers.

US-China relations have been strained in recent years over issues like trade, intellectual property theft, and supply chain reliance. How should we think about the economic ties between the US and China? And what are the keys to a prudent China policy going forward? To answer those questions, I'm joined by Derek Scissors. Derek is a senior fellow here at the American Enterprise Institute, where he focuses on the Chinese and Indian economies and on US economic relations with Asia. He is concurrently the chief economist of the China Beige Book. Derek is also author of AEI's China Global Investment Tracker.

With the US reaching its $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, the Republican-controlled House and Democratic administration are set to spar over raising the debt limit. To sort through what's going on and whether the Twitter idea of minting a trillion-dollar coin could be the government's "get out of jail free" card, I'm joined again by my AEI colleague Michael Strain.Mike is the director of Economic Policy Studies and the Arthur F. Burns Scholar in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute. He is also a member of the Committee on Automation and the Workforce of the National Academy of Sciences.

Austrian economist Friedrich A. Hayek fought in the First World War, lived through the Great Depression and the rise of fascism, and enjoyed a postwar career as a Nobel Prize-winning economist. He is known to us today as a champion of classical liberal thought and author of The Road to Serfdom. In this episode of Political Economy, I'm joined by Bruce Caldwell to learn more about Hayek's life and ideas.Bruce is a Research Professor of Economics at Duke University and the general editor of The Collected Works of F.A. Hayek. He is the author of 2004's Hayek's Challenge: An Intellectual Biography of F. A. Hayek. Bruce's latest book is Hayek: A Life, 1899–1950, with Hansjoerg Klausinger.

When we talk about poverty in the United States, what do we mean? And how do we measure it? My AEI colleague Scott Winship returns to Political Economy to give us a primer on how the "war on poverty" is going.Scott is a senior fellow and Director of Poverty Studies here at AEI. He's also author of the new report, "Bringing Home the Bacon: Have Trends in Men's Pay Weakened the Traditional Family?" We'll be diving into that question later in the show.

Professional sports teams love to ask local governments for public funds to build their stadiums. The teams claim these subsidies will "pay for themselves" through increased tourism and entertainment spending. But economists aren't so sure. For decades, researchers have cast doubts on these claims, yet local governments continue to help wealthy owners with their construction costs.In this episode of Political Economy, I'm sitting down with economist and sports fanatic J.C. Bradbury to learn more about why these stadium subsidies don't seem to work out in the end. J.C. is a professor of economics at Kennesaw State. Along with Dennis Coates and Brad Humphreys, he's the author of the new study, "The impact of professional sports franchises and venues on local economies: A comprehensive survey."

We often hear that health care in the United States is expensive, but what does that mean exactly? How can policymakers reform our healthcare system with a market-based approach? My colleague James C. Capretta, author of https://www.aei.org/research-products/book/us-health-policy-and-market-reforms-an-introduction/ (US Health Policy and Market Reforms: An Introduction), joins this episode of Political Economy to discuss those questions and more. James is a senior fellow and holds the Milton Friedman Chair at the American Enterprise Institute.

At the onset of the pandemic in 2020, my AEI colleague Stan Veuger told me we needed to support firms until the US economy could rebound. Two and a half years later, how have we fared? Dr. Veuger is back to discuss our fiscal response to the pandemic, the Fed's tricky task of cooling inflation without causing a recession, and more. Stan is a senior fellow in economic policy studies here at the American Enterprise Institute.

When voters and politicians discuss tax policy, the rates we have to pay and the revenue government will raise are front of mind. But what about the other economic effects of the tax code? Taxes can affect savings and investment, economic growth, and more. In this episode of Political Economy, I'm joined by Kyle Pomerleau, who is a senior fellow here at the American Enterprise Institute, where he studies federal tax policy.

Why has the American political scene seemed to be so irrational in the past several years? Economist and author Bryan Caplan says it all comes down to social desirability bias, the observation that people prefer what sounds good to what's true. In this episode, Bryan returns to Political Economy to explain why free markets are so unpopular, what people really mean when they complain about Big Tech and privacy, and much more. Bryan is a best-selling author and Professor of Economics at George Mason University. His latest books are https://www.amazon.com/Labor-Econ-Versus-World-Greatest/dp/B09QF44HHG/ref=sr_1_1?crid=PU0WAW25FC7U&keywords=labor+econ+vs+the+world&qid=1659714073&sprefix=labor+econ+vs+the+world%2Caps%2C57&sr=8-1 (Labor Econ Versus the World )and https://www.amazon.com/How-Evil-Are-Politicians-Demagoguery-ebook/dp/B09YPNFGHC/ref=sr_1_3?crid=PU0WAW25FC7U&keywords=labor+econ+vs+the+world&qid=1659714073&sprefix=labor+econ+vs+the+world%2Caps%2C57&sr=8-3 (How Evil Are Politicians?), the first two volumes of an eight-volume collection of his best essays.

Poverty was the norm for most of human history. Then, starting in Britain in the 18th century, economic growth took off. So what happened? Economists have theories about the origins of the Industrial Revolution, from geography to culture to institutions. In a new book, Mark Koyama and Jared Rubin assemble the literature to give readers a big-picture view of how the world went from poverty to widespread prosperity. Mark is an Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University, and Jared is a Professor of Economics at Chapman University. They are the authors of https://www.amazon.com/How-World-Became-Rich-Historical/dp/1509540237 (How the World Became Rich: The Historical Origins of Economic Growth).

When you think of the future of clean energy, wind and solar might be the first things that come to mind. But when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine, the need for alternative sources of power becomes apparent. From advanced geothermal to nuclear fusion, up-and-coming advancements may deliver a future of abundant, clean energy. One of the most ambitious ideas is space-based solar: orbiting solar panels that can beam energy to the Earth from space. Is this a viable energy solution ... or a sci-fi pipe dream? To find out more, I'm joined by Ali Hajimiri. Ali is the Bren Professor of Electrical Engineering and Medical Engineering at the California Institute of Technology, as well as Co-Director of the Space-Based Solar Power Project at Caltech.

When the topic of productivity growth comes up, a common retort is that productivity and pay have delinked, meaning all the gains of productivity growth go to the top while workers’ wages remain stagnant. So how well do productivity gains translate into higher wages? It’s an important question with implications for public policies designed to boost productivity growth. Today, I’m joined by Anna... Source

When the topic of productivity growth comes up, a common retort is that productivity and pay have delinked, meaning all the gains of productivity growth go to the top while workers' wages remain stagnant. So how well do productivity gains translate into higher wages? It's an important question with implications for public policies designed to boost productivity growth. Today, I'm joined by Anna Stansbury, whose work on productivity and pay offers some answers. Anna is an Assistant Professor in Work and Organization Studies at MIT Sloan and a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. She and Larry Summers authored "https://www.nber.org/papers/w24165 (Productivity and Pay: Is the Link Broken?)" and "https://www.nber.org/papers/w27193 (The Declining Worker Power Hypothesis)."

The Federal Reserve recently announced a 75-basis-point rate hike — the largest since 1994 — in an attempt to curb inflation. The Fed’s aim is to thread the needle by cooling the economy just enough to rein in rising prices without inducing a recession. But will the Fed succeed, or is a recession on the horizon? And if an economic downturn is coming, how severe will it be? Source