ChinaTalk

Just how weird will the AI-powered future be? To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Nathan Lambert, who writes the Interconnects newsletter and researches AI at the Allen Institute. We get into… Why OpenAI is trending toward engagement farming and sycophancy, The state of Chinese AI innovation six months post-DeepSeek, and the factors influencing diffusion of Chinese vs American models, Meta's organizational culture and how it influences the quality of the Llama models, Unconventional career advice for the AI age. Nathan's book recommendation: Careless People: A Cautionary Tale of Power, Greed, and Lost Idealism by Sarah Wynn-Williams Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What does the future of industrial policy in America look like, and what state capacity investments are needed to get there? How does China factor into the future of the U.S. semiconductor industry? And what do government affairs offices at large technology firms actually do? To explore these questions, we're concluding our CSIS Chip Chat series with Bruce Andrews. Bruce has had a long career on Capitol Hill, led government affairs for Ford, served as Deputy Secretary of Commerce under President Obama, and most recently headed government affairs at Intel. He's now a fellow at CSIS. We discuss… The decline of bipartisanship and how to bring expertise back to Capitol Hill, The case for a new “Department of Competitiveness”  Industry's role in policymaking and what it took to get semiconductor manufacturers on board with the CHIPS Act, Why Silicon Valley suddenly became interested in politics, How to optimize industrial policy in a stick-focused political environment. Outro music: Moon River, Frank Ocean 2018 (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Does anybody really understand China? Could America pursue an abundance agenda without the threat of the PRC? Can podcasters change the world? To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, who need no introduction, as well as Dan Wang, who has written beautiful annual letters and is back in the US as a research fellow at Kotkin's Hoover History Lab. He has an excellent book called Breakneck coming out this August, but we're saving that show for a little later this year. Today, our conversation covers… The use of China as a rhetorical device in US domestic discourse, Oversimplified aspects of Chinese development, and why the bipartisan consensus surrounding Beijing might fail to produce a coherent strategy, The abundance agenda and technocratic vs prophetic strategies for policy change, How to conceptualize political actors complexly, including unions, corporations, and environmental groups, The value of podcasting and strategies for positively impacting the modern media environment. Outtro Music: Recomposed by Max Richter, I went with a deep cut Autumn 3 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUEeqvp_BrQ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Can China use military force to achieve its political goals, without triggering nuclear war? To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed Fiona Cunningham, a professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania and author of the new book, Under the Nuclear Shadow: China's Information-Age Weapons in International Security. Co-hosting today is Michael Horowitz, another Penn professor who served in Biden's Department of Defense. We discuss… How to use open source PLA documents to conduct deep research, The evolution of Chinese defense strategy, including the impact of the third Taiwan Strait crisis, Nuclear modernization and China's “no first use” policy, How the PLA makes decisions, including why they chose to develop cyber capabilities, anti-satellite weapons, and hypersonic missiles over proposed alternatives. Outtro Music: Beauty by Gui Bian https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTlfSOCwYJ8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What has happened in the past 100 days to America's science and technology ecosystem? What are China's ambitions and how is the government trying to take advantage of American uncertainty? And what can we learn from China's war mobilization exercises? To explore these questions, we're joined by Divyansh Kaushik and Alex Rubin, who both work at Beacon Global Strategies. Divyansh holds an AI PhD from Carnegie Mellon, and Alex spent the past decade at the CIA focusing on China and emerging technologies. We discuss… The Historical origins of the US R&D model, and the division of labor between universities, government, and industry, How budget cuts will impact the NSF, NIH, NIST, and DoD basic research, Why and how China attempts to emulate US research institutions, What a leaked wargame exercise from Guangdong province can tell us about China's grand strategy, How institutions like ChinaTalk can complement the IC with fresh, independent research. Outro music: The Elements - Tom Lehrer (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What is Trump doing to extended deterrence? I got Polymarket to create a market on whether a US ally will acquire nuclear weapons in 2025. It's currently trading at 8%. Are we buyers or sellers? To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Vipin Narang, professor at MIT, who served as Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense responsible for nuclear deterrence policy during the Biden administration; Pranay Vaddi, a senior fellow at the Center for Nuclear Security Policy at MIT who worked on arms control and non-proliferation on Biden's National Security Council; and Junichi Fukuda, senior research fellow at Tokyo's Sasakawa Peace Foundation. We get into… The historical development of the American nuclear umbrella, including the “software” and “hardware” components of deterrence, The probability that an American ally will proliferate by 2030, and which countries are the most likely candidates, Why France proliferated despite US objections, How the world might respond to nuclear ambitions from Poland, Japan, or Saudi Arabia, China's nuclear modernization and deterrence strategies for a multi-polar world. Outro music: Tom Lehrer - Who's Next? (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Rush Doshi (CFR, Biden NSC, author of the excellent The Long Game) and I run through the US-China tale of the tape. The future of America's relationship with its allies may be the key hinge variable for whether this century turns out to be China's to define. Do give this one a listen. Especially if you're JD Vance! See Rush's Foreign Affairs article with Kurt Campbell here: https://archive.is/ZSTKP Some Japanese outtro music to give the allies some love: Karenai by Bonbero: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFJcIOMsOaU&ab_channel=Bonbero What's Popping by JP THE WAVY and friends: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1LOXU_hBNo&ab_channel=JPTHEWAVY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bill Reinsch of CSIS and the Trade Guys podcast with Jay Goldberg of Digits and Dollars and the Circuit podcast join to dicuss Trump's tariff impact on semis on another CSIS-ChinaTalk Chip Chat! Bill lays out the four clashing instincts driving policy in MAGA 2.0: revenge for decades of perceived slights, a bargaining bluff to coerce concessions, a fast‑cash revenue grab, and a fantasy of instant on‑shore fab construction. Jay walks through the on‑the‑ground fallout: chip designers worrying about losing China sales, GPU‑specific duties warping supply chains, and a loophole that lets boards assembled in Mexico skate by. We explore how blanket tariffs could accelerate China's ascent in analog and trailing‑edge chips, undermine Biden‑era “ally‑first” export‑control diplomacy, and leave Commerce's BIS badly under‑resourced to enforce the rules. We also get into whether allies will sign up for Washington's crusade after being slapped themselves, and whether Nvidia, Intel, and Tesla are “too important to punish.” Outtro Music: Well Get It, Tommy Dorsey https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgiHzCiB5Aw Bible‑Verse Sign‑off “Plans fail for lack of counsel, but with many advisers they succeed.” — Proverbs 15:22 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dylan Patel is a man on a mission. We get into how: Huawei is giving NVIDIA a run for their money What USG needs to do about it What smart semiconductor tariff policy would look like o3 Outtro Music, a little texas country for you all: Ernest Tubb, Walking the Floor Over You https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQIRRReZIls Hank Thompson, Wild Side of Life https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPvARPfquPc And a completely wild post-WWII song I did not feel comfortable putting on the feed but worth a listen for the wtf factor: Ernest Tubb, Filipino Baby https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WXnoCyKGw8&pp=0gcJCdgAo7VqN5tD Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Does America still have what it takes to stand up to China? Does short-term military readiness trade off with long-term strategy? What does the US need to do today to stay competitive for the rest of the century? “Tony Stark” is the author of Breaking Beijing, a Substack examining the military dimensions of US-China competition. Tony's Substack goes deep on subjects you didn't know you needed to understand, like Arctic policy, and takes a refreshing step back to look at great power competition holistically. Tony is also the author of Ex Supra, a sci-fi thriller about a near-future US-China war. Today, we discuss… What it will take to win the 21st century, and what America needs to prioritize in the short, medium, and long term, Why investing in education, basic science research, and foreign aid pay dividends in military readiness, Why Washington is short on coherent China strategy, Taiwan's impact on global nonproliferation efforts, How AI could change warfare, even if AGI can't be considered a “wonder weapon.” Outro music: Cmon - Fred Again (YouTube link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Doug gives his "we're heading for the end of the dollar-based world order" take. Dylan has no idea what he's talking about when it comes to macro or politics. We fail to arrive at the 2011 Obama-Boehner deal. I had a fever during the recording so don't really talk. 1930s-energy outtro music: Victoria Spivey, Detroit Moan, 1936 https://open.spotify.com/track/7L3GgSuguDJXi1msw6Pe7W?si=ab99d3eea65647eb Judy Garland, Over the Rainbow, 1938 https://open.spotify.com/track/3wAIcORchxdSkWv6v5AkaU?si=b6bfe7a8249147bb Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kevin Xu of https://interconnect.substack.com/, Matt Klein of https://theovershoot.co/, and Peter Harrell, Biden's U.S. White House as senior director for international economics in 2021-2022 and host of the new https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/security-economics/id1794022711 podcast join the show to discuss whether America's cooked. Outtro Music: Madeleine Chartrand - Tout Doucement, 1975 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e856a_xZ1TI&ab_channel=Vinyle33-45RPM Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tanner Greer of Scholar's Stage and I try to make sense of Liberation Day, the intellectual underpinnings of Trump's team, and what it all means for the world. Tanner's report: https://www.fpri.org/article/2025/03/obscurity-by-design/ Outtro Music: Nobody but You Babe, Clarence Reid, 1969 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCT7w2t8cyY 01:23 Geopolitical Implications of Trump's Management Style 35:02 Economic Vision and Industrial Renaissance 52:28 Economic Liberalism and Trump World 52:42 Industrial Policy Camps in Trump Administration 56:30 Laura Loomer and Trump World Geopolitics 01:04:04 Historical Parallels and Red Experts Problem 01:20:00 Taiwan Policy and Cultural Wars 01:29:40 China Policy and Trump's Tactical Approach Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to part two of our series on Cold War history with Sergey Radchenko. Here's part one. In today's interview, we discuss… Khrushchev's removal from power and the transition to the Brezhnev era, How the USSR and China managed their relationships with Vietnam, Sino-Soviet border conflicts, Brezhnev's negative feelings toward China, and Nixon's rapprochement, Watergate and the inability of China or the USSR to understand American politics Why the Soviets decided to invade Afghanistan, Reagan's approach to negotiations and his relationship with Gorbachev, How to manage the containment paradox and unknown adversary motives when competing with China and Russia today. Co-hosting today is Jon Sine of the Cogitations substack. Outro music: ДДТ- Родина (DDT - Motherland) (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Is there a stable state the US and China can hope for on the road to AGI? To discuss we have on today Dan Hendrycks. A CS PhD, Dan runs the Center for AI Safety and is an advisor at xAI and Scale AI. Here's his superintelligence strategy: https://www.nationalsecurity.ai/ For some more direct lessons from the Cold War to today's US-China dynamics, check out the show I did with Hal Brands (https://www.chinatalk.media/p/cold-war-lessons-for-us-china-today) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Transistor Radio boys are back. Jon of Asianometry, Doug O'Laughin and Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis on the pod to talk about Google's AI push, Intel's new CEO, Chinese robots, and the rise of CoreWeave. Here's the article rating the clouds that SemiAnalysis wrote: https://semianalysis.com/2025/03/26/the-gpu-cloud-clustermax-rating-system-how-to-rent-gpus/ Outtro Music: Some Malaysian UK garage: GADISKU lucidrari, FITTO, Gard, 2023 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IVewUwqu1dM Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Sergey Radchenko's book, To Run the World: The Kremlin's Bid for Global Power, is a masterwork! In my mind, it's in pole position for best book of 2025. Sergey takes you into the mind of Soviet and Chinese leaders as they wrestle for global power and recognition, leaving you amused, inspired, and horrified by the small-mindedness of the people who had the power to start World War III. We get amazing vignettes like Liu Shaoqi making fun of the Americans for eating ice cream in trenches, Khrushchev pinning red stars on Eisenhower's grandkids, and Brezhnev and Andropov offering to dig up dirt on senators to help save Nixon from Watergate. Sergey earns your trust in this book, acknowledging what we can and can't know. He leaves you with a new lens to understand the Cold War and the new US-China rivalry — namely, the overwhelming preoccupation with global prestige by Cold War leaders. In this interview, we discuss… Why legitimacy matters in international politics, Stalin's colonial ambitions and Truman's strategy of containment, Sino-Soviet relations during the Stalin era and beyond, The history of nuclear blackmail, starting with the 1956 Suez crisis, Why Khrushchev couldn't save the Soviet economy. Co-hosting today is Jon Sine of the Cogitations substack. Outro music: Виталий Марков "Главное, ребята, сердцем не стареть" (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Despite leading the world in AI innovation, there's no guarantee that America will rise to meet the challenge of AI infrastructure. Specifically, the key technological barrier for data center construction within the next 5 years is new power capacity. To discuss policy solutions, ChinaTalk interviewed Ben Della Rocca, who helped write the AI infrastructure executive order and formerly served as director for technology and national security on Biden's NSC, as well as Arnab Datta, director at IFP and managing director at Employ America, and Tim Fist, a director at IFP. Arnab and Tim just published a fantastic three-part series exploring the policy changes needed to ensure that AGI is invented in the USA and deployed through American data centers. In today's interview, we discuss… The need for new power generation driven by ballooning demand for compute, The impact of the January 2025 executive order on AI infrastructure, Which energy technologies can (and can't) power gigawatt-scale AI training facilities (and why Jordan is all-in on GEOTHERMAL), Challenges for financing moonshot green power ideas and the role of government action, The failure of the market to prioritize AI lab security, and what can be done to fend off threats from adversaries and non-state actors. Outtro music: Ghost Crew - 蝴蝶武士 (Butterfly Warriors) (Youtube link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A Wuhan-developed AI agent went viral this weekend. Guests Rohit Krishnan of the substack Strange Loop Canon, Shawn Wang of Latent Space, and Dean Ball of Mercatus and Hyperdimensional join us to discuss. We get into What Manus is and isn't What Manus tells us about the broader AI ecosystem's ability to produce products we actually want to use The political economy and liability issues that AI agents will engender More ChinaTalk coverage: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/manus-chinas-latest-ai-sensation Outtro Music: La Marelu "Mala" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAB5rx8mqjM&ab_channel=LaMarelu-Topic Alaska y Dinarama "A Quién Le Importa" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uQhdDtdXg0&ab_channel=YouMoreTv-Espect%C3%A1culo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Note: This episode was recorded Wednesday February 26th, two days before Zelenskyy's press conference with J.D. Vance and Trump in the White House. Shashank Joshi (Defence Editor at The Economist) and Michael Horowitz (Biden's Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Force Development and Emerging Capabilities, now back at Penn) come on the show to discuss: Ukraine's Chances on the Battlefield: We revisit J.D. Vance's tweet war with Shashank where he claims Ukraine is fated to lose, highlighting how war is nonlinear and dependent on political cohesion, economic strength, and defense industrial capacity beyond just manpower. Trump's Pivot to Putin: We try to think through what Trump is doing with Ukraine and Russia at the strategic level and what the long term and second order consequences are. AI and the Future of Warfare: We discuss of how AGI would transform warfare, with Horowitz suggesting progress will be incremental rather than revolutionary, emphasizing government adoption challenges over 0 to 1 technical breakthroughs. "Precise Mass" in Combat: Ukrainian forces have demonstrated how AI-guided drones achieving 80%+ hit rates have changed battlefield dynamics, introducing the concept of "precise mass" - lower-cost precision systems deployed at scale across domains including air, land, and sea. See Mike's Foreign Affairs piece on the topic here: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/battles-precise-mass-technology-war-horowitz Defense Innovation Challenges: Western bureaucratic processes severely impede military innovation, with Horowitz noting that reprogramming just 0.05% of the defense budget required over 40 congressional briefings, contrasting with Ukraine's wartime innovation speed and calling for acquisition reform. Recommended Books: Under the Nuclear Shadow by Fiona Cunningham Army of None by Paul Scharre Billion Dollar Spy by David Hoffman Outtro Music: Santigold, You'll Find a Way: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IodbPh7RkBw Vampire Weekend, Walcott: https://open.spotify.com/track/0BZY839qKXibapu4S0GYE2?si=7ecc773a95ee4d62 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Can sanctions really work? What lessons can we draw from US sanctions on Iran, Russia, and China in the 21st century? To find out, we interviewed Eddie Fishman, a former civil servant at the Department of State and an Adjunct Professor at Columbia. His new book, Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, is a gripping history of the past 20 years of American sanctions policy. In this show, we'll talk about… The evolution of U.S. sanctions policy, from Iraq and Cuba to Iran and Russia, How Reagan's deal with the Saudis turned the dollar into an economic chokepoint, The incredible success of sanctions against Iran, and how that playbook could have been used to punish Russia, Historical lessons in enforcement that are relevant for export controls on China today, The role of great civil servants like Stuart Levey, Daleep Singh, Victoria Nuland, and Matt Pottinger in building state power, Institutional challenges for economic warfare and the consequences of failure to reform, Strategies for writing groundbreaking books about modern history. Outro music: 1970s Iranian Psychadelic Rock, Gole Yakhe by Kourosh Yaghmaei https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmhqVPXOKo4 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How do patents influence emerging technology innovation? How far could AI and DOGE push our current IP regime? Does it matter that China issues way more patents than the US does? To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed ​​Andrei Iancu, who served as the director of the US Patent Office under the first Trump administration. Andrei has degrees in aerospace and mechanical engineering, and worked at the legendary Hughes Aircraft Company before going to law school. He is currently in private practice at Sullivan and Cromwell. Co-hosting today is ChinaTalk editor and second year law student at Duke, Nicholas Welch. We get into… The mounting evidence that China's patent system now dominates America's, and whether these indicators constitute an emergency in the innovation ecosystem, Why some US companies now prefer Chinese courts for patent enforcement, The fundamental tension between private rights of inventors and public access to innovations, What congressional inaction on patent eligibility means for AI innovation, and the bills that congress could pass to immediately jumpstart emerging tech investment, What the current administration could do to help USPTO juice the economy, Controversy surrounding the Patent Trial and Appeal Board (PTAB), and whether DOGE could put PTAB on the chopping block, How Trump will approach patent law and intellectual property rights, including perspectives on appointments and potential reforms. Thanks to CSIS for partnering with us to bring you this episode, the first in a three-episode CSIS Chip Chat series. Outtro Music: Lil Green, I'm Going to Copyright Your Kisses (1941) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ye39JuJZ4k&ab_channel=LilGreen-Topic Nellie Hill, I'm Gunna Copyright Your Kisses (1951) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3OcMdxpWas&ab_channel=krobigraubart Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How has Chinese hegemony shaped power relations in East Asia? Why did imperial China conquer Tibet and Xinjiang but not Vietnam or Korea? Can learning from history help maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait? Today's interview begins with one shocking truth — while medieval Europe suffered under near-constant war, East Asia's Middle Ages were defined by great power peace. To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Professor David C. Kang, director of the Korean Studies Institute at USC and co-author of Beyond Power Transitions: The Lessons of East Asian History and the Future of U.S.-China Relations. We discuss… How East Asian nations managed to peacefully coexist for centuries, Why lessons from European history don't always apply in non-European contexts, Why wars begin and how they can be avoided, How to interpret outbreaks of violence in Asia — including conflicts with the Mongols, China's meddling in Vietnam, and Japan's early attempts at empire, State behaviors that cannot be explained by power transition theory alone, Whether the Thucydides trap makes U.S.-China war inevitable, Old school methods for managing cross-strait relations. Co-hosting today is Ilari Mäkelä of the On Humans podcast. Outro music: 荒城の月 "The Moon over the Ruined Castle" by 滝廉太郎 Rentarō Taki (Youtube link) Cover photo of a Song Dynasty axe-wielding god https://dragonsarmory.blogspot.com/2016/12/song-chinese-armor-in-religious.html Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dylan Patel and Doug O'Laughlin (SemiAnalysis), Jon from Asianometry and I have way too much fun talking hyperscaler capex, the AI mandate of heaven tier list, and Tim Cook succession plans. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dario Amodei is the CEO of Anthropic. In today's interview, we discuss… Whether an AI innovation race is inevitable between the US and China, How the US should update export controls in light of DeepSeek's R1 release, DeepSeek's willingness to generate information about bioweapons, Technical defenses against model distillation and AI espionage, How advanced AI could eventually impact democracy, Whether there is tension between export controls and the belief that AI will broadly increase human flourishing. Dario's blogposts: Machines of Loving Grace: https://darioamodei.com/machines-of-loving-grace On DeepSeek and Export Controls: https://darioamodei.com/on-deepseek-and-export-controls Outro Music: Lykke Li, I Follow Rivers (Magician Remix) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oS6wfWu0JvA&ab_channel=LykkeLi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kevin Xu of Interconnected and Interconnected Capital and I knock it out of the park with a roundup episode exploring: What DeepSeek does and doesn't illustrate about Chinese innovation Tensions between open-source cosmopolitanism and nationalism built into DeepSeek and the broader Chinese tech community DeepSeek's organizational and talent management strategy, parallels to OpenAI, and what the fame will mean for the firm and Chinese AI policy What DeepSeek should and may mean for the future of export controls and broader US innovation policy The JS Tan article referenced: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/deepseeks-secret-to-success Dario's first article on our happy AI future: https://darioamodei.com/machines-of-loving-grace Dario's second article on why America needs to export control China: https://darioamodei.com/on-deepseek-and-export-controls Outtro Music: Dizkar, 愛縂時刻盛開 https://open.spotify.com/track/1rXneAS9Djts7fwRGHUeG5?si=b2b29714802948de Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Miles Brundage, a six year OpenAI vet who ran its Policy Research and AGI readiness arms, discuss why all your deepseek takes are so terrible. Outtro music: The Departure, Max Richter https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8R5Ppb9wqjY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What makes some countries more innovative than others? What role do intellectual property rights play in building national power? Does Elon Musk really give competitors free access to Tesla's patents? To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed Adam Mossoff, professor at the Antonin Scalia Law School at George Mason University. We discuss… How the patent system has shaped American society since independence, The extent to which patent policy caused the great divergence between the West and China, Whether Elon's misunderstanding of patents will become the dominant attitude of the second Trump administration, The Patent Trial and Appeal Board (PTAB) and other threats to the U.S. innovation ecosystem, How to reconcile China's IP theft with its robust domestic patent law, What the U.S. can do to facilitate innovation while competing with China in emerging technology. Outro Songs from the American Revolution: Liberty Song (Arthur F. Schrader rendition), and the Tory retort, Come Shake Your Dull Noodles (Arthur F. Schrader rendition) Thanks to the Innovation Alliance for sponsoring this episode. The Innovation Alliance is a coalition of research and development-based technology companies representing innovators, patent owners, and stakeholders who believe in the critical importance of maintaining a strong patent system that supports innovative enterprises of all sizes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here's a best-of playlist for 2024: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/3yexkG2kvPlq68B22pjOWw?si=da3d1cf64dfe4a2ci Outtro Music: Дили-дили (Dili-dili) Artist: Гюлли Чохели (Gyulli Chokheli), 1967 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

​​Our guest today is economist Noah Smith, who made time for an in-person interview during his recent trip to Taiwan. He runs the Noahpinion substack and is the author of an upcoming book on the revival of the Japanese economy.  We discuss… The goals of Silicon Valley's pro-Trump constituency, from deregulation, to tariffs, to China policy, Whether Elon is standing up for Taiwan behind closed doors, Whether Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Poland need their own nuclear weapons, How Taiwan could bargain for independence with China's leaders post-Xi, National health insurance as a potential solution to China's aggregate demand problem, A Georgist perspective on China's real estate problem, Why China's demographic issues are overstated,  Recommendations for Taiwan's economic development. To hear more of Noah's musings, check out Econ 102, a podcast by Turpentine. Outtro music: Wifey by Dizzy Dizzo 蔡詩芸 (Youtube Link) Cover art: 清 冷枚 梧桐双兔图 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Greg Allen of CSIS and I are tired! We go through today's new export controls to stop TSMC from fabbing Huawei chips, some DRAM revisions, and discuss the past two years of Biden BIS policy and where we could all be going next. Outtro music: 大雨 - deca joins https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FFALDn1yGQ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Biden last export control, for real this time! Who does and doesn't get to build datacenters under this new regulation? To discuss, we brought on RAND's Lennart Heim, Jimmy Goodrich, Chris Miller, and Dylan Patel. Outtro Music: Afida Es & the Siglap Boys - jangan goda, Malaysia, 1967 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvXrdwKST1U&ab_channel=schutbart hasnah haron & the spiritual 70's _ bintang pujaan, Malaysia 1977 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4cMsoLttNs&ab_channel=nostalgiahassny Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Can diplomatic charisma prevent crises from escalating? Does the CCP feel conflicted about aligning with the likes of Iran and North Korea? What's the use of communicating during a great power competition? To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed R. Nicholas Burns, Biden's Ambassador to China, whose diplomatic career spans 35 years and 8 countries. We discuss… Kissinger's experience negotiating with the CCP, Why China's negotiating tactics are so different from those of the Soviet Union, How European allies are helping to push back against Chinese aggression, Great power responsibilities, and whether Chinese leaders truly appreciate the reputational costs of helping the Russians and the Houthis, Biden's victories with new partners in the Pacific, How diplomats express consequences and draw red lines during international crises, Areas of mutual interest where the U.S. and China can still engage productively, The importance of specialists in the Foreign Service.  Outro music:  Óró Mo Bháidín - Mary O'Hara Auld Lang Syne - Rendition by The Irish Rovers, originally written by Robert Burns Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To discuss the Christmas Day MAGA civil war over H1Bs and the future of US immigration policy, ChinaTalk interviewed Divyansh Kaushik, a computer science PhD and vice president of Beacon Global Strategies.  We get into… Pro-immigrant attitudes among Trump's allies in Silicon Valley Creative political maneuvering that could make high-skill immigration reform a reality Whether Vivek is right about American culture aspiring to normalcy Other areas where Elon and the tech right might spend their political influence  How nativist backlash could influence Trump's agenda Why India has yet to produce an influential, home-grown AI lab Special thanks to Mani Subramani, Gauri Subramani, and our anonymous contributor who grew up in China for sharing their reflections on immigrant parenting.  Outro song: Kishore Kumar, Rote Hue Aate Hai Sab https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e18Pgofqpnc Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jake Newby is the author of Concrete Avalanche, a free newsletter about music from China. You might remember Jake from the Chinese shoegaze election playlist, or from the tracklist he presented on ChinaTalk back in June. Now that the year is over, Jake is here to introduce his picks for the overall most interesting songs to come out of China in 2024. This tracklist includes everything from Afrobeat-influenced Beijing funk endorsed by Gilles Peterson, to an electronic track crafted in a Tibetan monastery featuring Buddhist chanting. You can find links to listen to each track individually on the ChinaTalk substack. Enjoy! 1. Golden Seeds 黄金种子 by Sleeping Dogs 2. Never Broken, Never Healed by Seon Ga 信鴿 3. Aroma Compound by ayrtbh 4. Stage Riot 舞台 by Carsick Cars 5. Hereditary Nightmare 遗 传 噩 梦 by The Swan and Blossoms 天鹅与花朵 6. Kagi 鍵 by Voision Xi 7. 物件 (Object) by Mdprl & Git Bu$y Trio 8. Night Patrol by Fazi 法兹 9. Mantra Of Buddha Akshobhya 不 动 佛 心 咒 by Howie Lee 10. Ghostbomb by Ghostmass 大鬼众 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Chris Miller of Chip War and Lennart Heim of RAND check in on the geopolitics of AI. We explore: Chinese labs' algorithmic progress (surprising to everyone but regular ChinaTalk listeners!) The geopolitical implications of scaling on test time compute What is and isn't working with US export controls And a whole lot more this was a great episode! The CSET report I referenced: https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/chinas-sti-operations/ Chris and Lennart's ChinaTalk in early 2023 https://www.chinatalk.media/p/ai-compute-101-the-geopolitics-of Outtro music: japanese citypop producers collaborating Beijinger Cheng Fangyuan in the 80s! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=403GCMhZ89Q&ab_channel=Heatwolves itself a cover of this Japanese track but better than the original https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyjnkuhRfJA&ab_channel=PopBULL Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We'll be getting into the biggest tv show of 2024, a celebrity road trip “will they or won't they divorce” show which is just as big of a hot mess as it sounds like, rigged nationalist singing competitions, megacorp boy idol capitalism corrupting something as seemingly innocent as a farming reality show, and xinjiang-set tv hit drama. Our guest today is Em who writes Active Faults, one of my favorite substacks that explores the China's entertainment industry and celebrity fandom. It is a consistently dark read but one of my favorite discoveries this year. https://activefaults.substack.com/ Puttro music: one of those foreigners who showed up the Chinese singers in 歌手， China's 'The Voice" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMpnuYBcA_I Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nathan Lambert of the excellent https://www.interconnects.ai/ newsletter and the Allen Institute joins the pod for a rundown of the biggest AI stories of this year and next. We also talk about what he's learned training advanced AI models at the Allen Institute. Outtro Music: Young and Holtful by Young-Holt Unlimited, 1969. https://open.spotify.com/track/5am0dV7aB91Q6sWqIAuurA?autoplay=true Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Commerce released its much-anticipated chip export-control updates yesterday, December 2. But today's guests are unimpressed. But are we right to have hoped for more? To discuss, I'm joined by Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis and Greg Allen from CSIS. A disclaimer: We recorded this yesterday the same day the regs were released, and given their complexity our takes are inevitably provisional. We get into: What's in the new controls: high bandwidth memory, FDPR, and the Entity List. Why key assumptions in Biden's approach to export controls limited How China's stockpiling spree may have already rendered these new rules partially obsolete, and what policymakers can do about that going forward. The law-enforcement approach vs. the counterintelligence approach, and whether export controls should be a foreign-policy tool or simply a law-enforcement activity. How the new chip controls are like removing puzzle pieces just one at a time — and why that's exactly what China wants. The “America First” rationale for domestic chip production. Why the Democrats' regulatory design philosophy has favored massive complexity to the detriment of enforcement — and what the Trump administration might do differently going forward. Outtro music: From the Netherlands! Mensen by Josine Van Dalsum https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igRkp_03UHk From Japan! Yadokari - Meiko Kaji https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJG2Wozor94 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dylan Patel, Doug O'Laughlin, Jon from Asianometry and I all chat the biggest semiconductor stories of the year. We get into energy demands for datacenters, Intel, Samsung, Nvidia, SMIC, Huawei, Deepseek and the rise of ChatGPT. Outtro music: Sabicas, Carcelera (Reflejo Andaluz) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2_nX21D8Go Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Few books have influenced me as much as the Makers of Modern Strategy series. The three volumes (published in 1942, 1986, and 2023) are indispensable to understanding statecraft, leadership, and the evolution of warfare across millennia. The New Makers of Modern Strategy (2023) is a thousand pages long and analyzes strategy from ancient Greece to the Congo. The man behind this behemoth collection is Hal Brands, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a returning ChinaTalk guest. In our conversation, we discuss: The process for compiling such an ambitious collection of essays; Unique insights and new topics covered in the 2023 edition, including Tecumseh, Kabila in the Congo, and Strategies of Equilibrium in 17th Century France; Advice for reading the book effectively; Revolutions in military affairs, from the atom bomb to quantum computers. For reference, you can compare the content of the three volumes with this spreadsheet, courtesy of Nicholas Welch. Outtro music: When This Cruel War is Over (Civil War ballad by Hermes Nye) https://open.spotify.com/track/1Zjcz6B4PromuFFXMWu8hK?si=500b718d8361421b Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To discuss the Department of Justice's new proposed rule on data security, we interviewed two brilliant guests from the ChinaTalk Hall of Fame — DOJ National Security Division attorneys Lee Licata and Devin DeBacker. Before DOJ, Lee was an attorney at DHS and then CBP, while Devin was a partner at Kirkland & Ellis and then worked with the Office of White House Counsel. Today we'll be discussing the DOJ's new proposed rule on data security.  We get into… DOJ's plan to protect your data from foreign adversaries, How public comments have shaped the proposed rule since the last time we interviewed Lee and Devin, DOJ's tools for enforcing corporate compliance, The differences between data security regulations, privacy laws, and export controls, Why some public comments get accepted and some get rejected, The DOJ playbook for assembling a dream team of talented bureaucrats. Thanks to Nicholas Welch for hosting this interview! Outtro music: Bad Boys (Theme from Cops) (Youtube link) + Everybody Loves the Sunshine (Takuya Kuroda) (YouTube) Submit comments here. Check out our last show about the DOJ's data security rule here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Antoine, aka 多多底料, is a French Mandarin teacher by day and a Chinese rap enthusiast by night. Today, he's here with a setlist of his favorite hip hop tracks. His original songs can be found here. Bonne écoute! Track 1: 芳草地 (The Fragrant Meadow) by DIGI GHETTO (艾志恒Asen/thomeboydontkill/mac ova seas/KIV/Mula Sakee/付思遥) Track 2: 威远故事 (The Story of Weiyuan County) by GAI周延 Track 3: 变蓝 (Turning Blue) by 也是福 (Eddie Beatz) feat. PO8 and 喜辰晨 Track 4: 亚特兰蒂斯陷落 (Atlantis Surrenders) by 弗兰德斯坦/C-Low  Track 5: 春雪采耳 (Ear Cleanse In The Spring Snow) by 施鑫文月 and 小老虎 (Lil Tiger) Track 6: THE MESSAGE PT.2 by CREAM D and 艾热AIR Track 7: 落幕 (Sunset) by Asen (feat. GALI, 堵琳Caroline) Track 8: 囚 (Cage) by 李佳隆 (JelloRio) Track 9: 恨与爱 (Hate and Love) by AThree  Track 10: 不负责 (Why u blame on me?) by Capper and (ﾉI A I)ﾉ♡ Track 11: 危险派对 by 王以太 Links to all these songs can be found on the ChinaTalk Substack. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

ChinaTalk columnist Alexa Pan and Jake Newby of the China music substack Concrete Avalanche (https://jakenewby.substack.com/) No election content whatsoever! 1. 'Hohhot Aquarium' - NarrowLaneAngel 窄巷天使 One of the stand-out acts from the Kind of Shoegaze Vol. 1 compilation focused on young Chinese bands that was released at the start of the year, NarrowLaneAngel formed in Inner Mongolia in 2023. In August of that year, they released an eponymous debut EP. 2. 'Limpid' - Forsaken Autumn Based in Shanghai, Forsaken Autumn have been together since 2011, propelled by the talents of britlulu (who also founded the East Asia Shoegaze Festival) and singer Ecke Wu. Released at the tail-end of 2015, Forsaken Autumn's record Whenere — dubbed “the Chinese Loveless” by one commenter on Bandcamp — is a classic in Chinese shoegaze circles. 3. 'Nostalgia' - Summer Daze Founded in 2021, Summer Daze are another band who featured on the Kind of Shoegaze compilation series from Amemoyo. After a couple of early EPs, they've put out four new singles over the course of this year. 4. 'Firework' - The White Tulips Xiamen music scene stalwart Chen Zhenchao (also known as Soda) has moved away from shoegaze into surf-rock and dream- and city-pop territory with his more recent projects, but in 2015 he and his band The White Tulips delivered the decidedly shoegazey Fondle. It's re-release on vinyl in 2021 was a nod to its status as a Chinese shoegaze classic. 5. 'Float' - Chocland.doc 巧克力文件岛 Hebei five piece Chocland.doc apparently first came together at a former residence of Eileen Chang, but are seemingly yet to write a song based on Lust, Caution or any of her other novels. "Of course, the name of the band has no meaning," they say, "what you understand is what you understand." 6. 'Is your dream still out-focus' - Lunacid Another one of China's newer shoegaze acts, Lunacid were formed in 2023. The trio hail from Changsha and also featured on the Kind of Shoegaze compilation series. 7. '迷航' ('Dazedtrek') - 哲学思潮 (Philosophy Currents) Formed just last year, 哲学思潮 hail from Nanning in Guangxi province, near the border with Vietnam. Their debut album Dazedtrek was recently made available on Bandcamp.  8. 'Detached' - The Numen Shanghai-based quartet The Numen met on arts review platform Douban and have pursued a shared love of shoegaze and indie-rock since the summer of 2023. They namecheck shoegaze greats such as My Bloody Valentine's Kevin Shields among their influences.  9. 'Cat Tenant (Summer)' - Baby Formula Formed by “three boring people with no expectations for the unknown journey ahead”, Beijing band Baby Formula came seemingly out of nowhere, dropped an impressive eponymous debut album in the autumn of 2013, and then promptly disappeared again. Still, their music continues to resonate over a decade later. 10. 'star' - Dear Eloise As frontman for long-running band PK14, Yang Haisong is one of the godfathers of Chinese post-punk. Yet he's also played a pivotal role in bringing more experimental, noisy, and yes, shoegazey sounds to the fore. Formed in 2007 with his wife (and one-time PK14 bassist) Sun Xia, Dear Eloise have released a string of atmospheric records over the years and remain an influential act in China. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Why did the Soviet Union collapse? Which lessons from Cold War history are relevant for China's future? To discuss the successes, failures, and strategies of Soviet leaders, ChinaTalk interviewed Yakov Feygin. Feygin is the author of Building a Ruin: The Cold War Politics of Soviet Economic Reform, which examines how various Soviet leaders, institutions, and economists attempted to boost Soviet growth and national power.  Co-hosting today is Jon Sine, writer of the Cogitations substack. We discuss: The strengths and limitations of the Stalinist economic model, Khrushchev's shift to “peaceful competition” with capitalism, Alternative policy paths that could have saved the Soviet Union, How technological optimism shaped Soviet reform efforts, inspiring the CCP in the process, Parallels between the institutions of the Soviet Union and those of contemporary China, The battle between political scientists and historians when analyzing the political economy of authoritarian states. Outro music: Building a Ruin - Skyclad (Youtube link) Links to all the books and papers referenced in this show are available on the ChinaTalk substack. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

林宏文是《晶片島上的光芒》一書的作者,這本書深入探討了台積電的歷史、管理方法和國際角色。作為台灣最資深的半導體記者之一、林宏文以其三十多年的行業經驗,為讀者呈現了一個全面而生動的台灣半導體產業發展故事。 訪談中、主要討論了以下幾個關鍵話題: 台積電的創立背景及其在全球半導體產業中的獨特定位 台灣政府在推動半導體產業發展中的角色,特別是工研院和科學園區的貢獻 台積電的管理模式,包括研發與製造部門的平衡以及人才培養策略 台灣半導體產業的國際競爭力,尤其是與三星等競爭對手的比較 台積電在全球地緣政治中的角色,以及"矽盾"這一概念的由來和影響 AI時代對半導體產業的影響,特別是對記憶體和邏輯晶片整合的需求 台灣與美國在看待國際關係上的差異,以及這種差異對台灣國際戰略的影響 Special thanks to the host of this interview, Arrian Ebrahimi of the Chip Capitols substack. Cohosted by ChinaTalk editors Nicholas Welch and Lily Ottinger.  Outtro music: Right Here Waiting, by Richard Marx. Youtube Link. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome back to part two of our interview with Yasheng Huang 黄亚生, the author of The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success and Why They Might Lead to Its Decline. We cover a lot of ground in this two-hour installment. During the first hour, we discuss… The aspects of imperial China's governance Mao chose to embrace, and those he chose to abandon, The factors enabling Mao's radical policies compared to imperial rulers, Why China was able to grow so much faster than India, despite the setbacks of the Cultural Revolution, Statistical approaches for evaluating the effectiveness of autocratic development models, China's economic reforms and rural development policies in the 1980s, How the events of 1989 permanently altered China's trajectory, Whether the rise of Xi Jinping was inevitable, In the second hour, we discuss... The Steelman case for why China needed a leader like Xi Jinping, What sets Xi apart from his predecessors, Succession challenges and the importance of term limits in authoritarian states, Why engagement with China failed to produce political liberalization, How the US could have better leveraged economic relations with China, Creative approaches to human rights advocacy in China. Outro music: Nothing to My Name (一无所有) by Cui Jian (崔健) (Youtube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Yasheng Huang 黄亚生 is the author of one of the decade's greatest books about China — The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success and Why They Might Lead to Its Decline. It's a rich book, a product of a career of reflections, with each page delivering something novel and provocative. In this first half of our two-part interview, we discuss… How the imperial examination system (known as keju) shaped Chinese governance, culture, and society, Why autocratic Chinese dynasties benefitted from a meritocratic bureaucracy, Statistical methods for analyzing social mobility in imperial China, How the keju system survived the Mongol conquest, What the tradeoffs in the imperial exam system can teach us about the future economic prospects of China and Taiwan. Co-hosting today is Ilari Mäkelä, host of the On Humans podcast.  NOTES (Courtesy of Ilari) A Rough Timeline of Chinese history: Pre–221 BCE: Disunity (e.g. Warring States)  221 BCE – 220: Unity (Qin & Han dynasties) 220 – 581: Disunity (“Han-Sui Interregnum”) 581 – 1911: Unity (Sui, Tang, Song, Yuan, Ming, and Qing Dynasties) Historical figures Emperor Wanli 萬曆帝 | Shen Kuo 沈括 (polymath) | Zhu Xi 朱熹 (classical philosopher) | Hong Xiuquan 洪秀全 (leader of the Taiping Rebellion) | Yuan Shikai 袁世凯 (military leader) | Chiang Kai-shek 蔣介石 (military leader and statesman) Modern scholars Ping-ti Ho 何炳棣 (historian) | Clair Yang (economist) | Joseph Needham (scientist and historian) | Daron Acemoglu | James Robinson Historical terms Keju civil service exams | Taiping Rebellion REFERENCES A lot of the original data discussed in the episode is original from Huang's book. As an exception, Huang references his co-authored article on civil service exams and imperial stability, written with Clair Yang. Outtro music: 等着你回来 by 白光, a 1930s Shanghai starlet https://open.spotify.com/track/0aHMT9dIdPDz094fc37Xq0?si=d1591ff2339d421c Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To discuss America's comparative advantages in national competition and the structural forces that drive (and limit) innovation, ChinaTalk interviewed Kumar Garg.  Formerly an Obama official in the Office of Science and Technology Policy, Kumar spent several years at Schmidt Futures focusing on science and technology philanthropy. He has been a mentor and cheerleader for ChinaTalk over the years, and he is the president of the newly established Renaissance Philanthropy. We discuss: The inspiration behind Renaissance Philanthropy and its focus on mid-scale, field-transforming ideas Strategies for identifying underexplored, high-impact projects — including weather forecasting, carbon sequestration, and datasets on neurocognition Structural challenges for R&D funding at the level of government and universities The role of focused research organizations like OpenAI in accelerating progress and understanding long-term drivers of productivity A wide angle-view of US-China competition and strategic innovation The underresearched importance of alliance management. Outtro music: Song 1 - If ye love me - Thomas Tallis and the Cambridge Singers (Youtube Link) Song 2 - Recercare (I) - Francesco Spinacino and Robert Meunier (Youtube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Michael Collins is the acting chair of the National Intelligence Council (NIC). He has spent 28 years in the intelligence community, starting as a career analyst in the CIA focused on East Asia before moving into leadership roles. He served as chief of staff for the CIA deputy director and worked on modernization efforts in the agency. We discuss… How the intelligence community informs high-level policymaking, Why different institutional approaches are needed to collect intelligence on non-state actors vs nation-state adversaries, Challenges in assessing China's technological and military capabilities, “Narrative Intelligence” and areas where intelligence agencies have a unique edge, Strategies for improving long-term forecasting and avoiding groupthink. Outro music: Scorpions - Wind Of Change (Youtube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To discuss the post-election future of US competition policy, ChinaTalk interviewed Peter Harrell and Nazak Nikakhtar. Nazak served in the Trump administration after a long career as a civil servant, where she was instrumental in shaping the Commerce Department's work on China, first at the International Trade Administration and later leading the Bureau of Industry and Security. Peter worked in the Biden administration on the National Economic Council and National Security Council, focusing on international economics, export controls, and investment restrictions. We discuss… The role of the executive in setting the industrial policy agenda Leadership shortcomings in the Biden and Trump administrations Competition with China — bipartisan consensus, bureaucratic inertia, and strategies to stop wasting time. Advice for America's next president, from export controls to pharmaceutical decoupling and alliance management Creative approaches to supply chain resilience This is 2023 CSET report Jordan referenced (See the “Understanding the Intangibles section) Outtro Music: Jun Mayuzumi - Black Room (Youtube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices