Fault Lines

Today, Jess, Les, and Andy unpack a deadly and still-unfolding incident off the coast of Cuba, where Cuban authorities opened fire on a Florida-registered speedboat, killing one U.S. resident. Havana claims the vessel carried weapons and gear that could have been used for a terrorist attack and Secretary of State Marco Rubio has described the episode as an “unusual incident.” What exactly do we know about the incident? Is this an isolated maritime confrontation or the kind of flashpoint that could provoke a major U.S. response? How does the U.S. military's build up in the Middle East impact how Washington may respond to this episode?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@nottvjessjones@lestermunson@andykeiserLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/sr8CJ5O7adg Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Les, Matt, and Algene break down President Trump's State of the Union address, the longest in history and filled with familiar themes, economic boasts, and political theater. The President claimed a historic economic turnaround and emphasized tariffs, national strength, and a tough posture against Iran. But while the speech delivered pomp and pageantry, it offered little in the way of a clear forward-looking strategy at a consequential political moment.How will allies and adversaries interpret the address, particularly amid ongoing tensions with Iran and economic friction with Europe? Did the emphasis on tariffs and economic nationalism reinforce stability or raise new questions about U.S. reliability? And in a year when voters consistently cite affordability as their top concern, did the President meaningfully address the challenges facing everyday Americans or miss an opportunity to shape the political landscape heading into November? Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@morganlroach@lestermunson@WMattHayden@AlgeneSajeryLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/GTW9ff7Jcec Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Jess, and Morgan unpack the geopolitical undercurrents of the Winter Olympics. The spotlight has fallen on athletes like Alysa Liu, competing for the United States, and Eileen Gu, who chose to represent China after reportedly receiving a lucrative offer from Beijing. Meanwhile, the U.S. men's hockey team's victory over favored Canada, America's medal race with Norway, and even off-ice political theatrics have fueled debate about nationalism, identity, and how leaders frame athletic dominance.Do medal counts and hockey championships shape national narratives in ways that affect how countries see themselves and each other? Do the Winter Olympics play into Trump's view of the world? In an era where global competition extends from military power to medal counts, how much geopolitical weight should we really assign to the Games?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@NotTVJessJones@morganlroachLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/Vp69UEMjtMk Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Morgan, Matt, and Jamil examine the inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace, hosted in Washington yesterday. The Board was created to focus on the reconstruction of Gaza and the coordination of post-conflict stabilization efforts. The first meeting brought together officials from dozens of countries, alongside political and business leaders, and included a sweeping promise of $10 billion in U.S. funding.How does the Board of Peace impact regional stability and post-conflict governance in the Middle East? What does its existence signal for the future role of international organizations like the United Nations? What does the Board's current membership say about the priorities and vision behind the initiative?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@NotTVJessJones@morganlroach@WMattHayden@jamil_n_jafferLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/aHxHGEmEdeA Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Andy, and Algene discuss the deployment of 100 U.S. troops to Nigeria, with another 100 on the way. The forces are tasked with training, intelligence sharing, and logistical support for Nigerian troops battling extremist violence in the north, but will not participate in combat operations. The move follows President Trump's sharp criticism of the Nigerian government, including claims that it has failed to protect Christians from what he has called a “genocide.”What is really driving instability in Nigeria and is Washington framing the conflict correctly? Will a limited U.S. security presence help address the root causes of violence, or risk reinforcing a misleading narrative? And as reports surface of Nigerians being recruited under false pretenses and sent to fight in Ukraine, what does that tell us about the pressures facing Nigeria's youth and the consequences of prolonged instability?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@morganlroach@andykeiser@AlgeneSajeryLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/VrjT2IM1Yts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess break down Secretary of State Marco Rubio's speech at the Munich Security Conference, where he closed to a standing ovation. The remarks come at a delicate moment, with European leaders still unsettled by disputes over Greenland and tariffs. Rubio's tone contrasted sharply with Vice President Vance's harsher message at last year's conference, suggesting a stylistic shift even if the administration's broader approach remains the same. Was Rubio extending a true olive branch, or delivering the same message in a more diplomatic wrapper? As transatlantic ties evolve, how will Europe navigate expectations about responsibility and defense? If Washington and its partners fail to get back on the same page, can they hope to compete effectively with China?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@morganlroach@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/KuPBfpbKQaM?si=lp48EgPXzb0GoS_d Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Morgan, Les, and Matt examine whether real change could finally be coming to Cuba. The United States has declared a national emergency with respect to Cuba and threatened tariffs on countries supplying the island with oil. This follows Washington's move to cut off Venezuelan oil, leaving the island increasingly isolated as its economy buckles under decades of mismanagement. At the same time, Russia and China continue to use Cuba as a platform for intelligence and influence just miles from American shores.Does this moment present a genuine strategic opportunity to reshape the balance of power in the Caribbean? What are national security risks posed by Russian and Chinese activity on and around the island? What would meaningful change in Cuba actually look like?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@NotTVJessJones@lestermunson@morganlroach@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Les, Andrew, and Amy unpack Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington, where he is set to meet with President Trump to discuss the ongoing U.S. negotiations with Iran. Netanyahu intends to ensure Israeli security interests are addressed and to share intelligence as Washington continues talks with Tehran. While the Trump administration pursues diplomacy, it has also deployed U.S. carriers to the region, signaling that negotiations are backed by force. The administration has made clear its core demands are full denuclearization and an end to the regime's violent repression of protesters. But with Iran weakened, boxed in, and facing deep internal unrest, would its regime rather endure U.S. pressure than accept terms that could threaten their grip on power? As both leaders weigh the risks of escalation today, can they shape an outcome that prevents a nuclear Iran without triggering a broader regional conflict?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@lestermunson@morganlroach@amykmitchell@AndrewBoreneLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/-6IvHW_uTVY Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, and Jess break down Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's sweeping victory in a snap election, a historic result that gives the Liberal Democratic Party a two-thirds majority in the lower house for the first time since World War II. The outcome dramatically strengthens Takaichi's political mandate and opens the door to significant shifts in Japan's national security policy. With a strong working relationship with Washington, the moment may be ripe for deeper U.S.–Japan coordination and a stronger coalition to counter China's growing military power, including its rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal.While Takaichi now has the authority to act on national security issues, economic concerns are what drove voters to the polls. Can she deliver economic results while advancing a more assertive defense agenda? And as China pushes regional red lines, how will Japan balance domestic pressures with the strategic realities ahead?Check out the answers to these questions and more in this episode of Fault Lines.@lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/BAf34HsixlI Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today Jess, Les, Morgan, and Matt unpack the expiration of New START, the 2010 arms control treaty long described as the last remaining guardrail on U.S. and Russian nuclear forces. Washington and Moscow together hold roughly 85% of the world's nuclear weapons but Russia has proven an inconsistent arms control partner, raising questions of what, if anything, comes next. Is negotiating a new agreement worthwhile if Russia and China show little interest in being constrained? What would a credible next framework need to include? And absent a formal treaty, what informal mechanism can realistically prevent a new arms race?@morganlroach@lestermunson@NotTVJessJones@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/SzqhtbLQ1EQ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Jamil, Les, and Andy survey a busy week in the Western Hemisphere, as the Trump administration sharpens its focus closer to home. President Gustavo Petro's visit to the White House signaled a thaw in U.S.–Colombia relations, with renewed counternarcotics cooperation and discussions around exporting Venezuelan natural gas to Colombia. Meanwhile, Panama's Supreme Court annulled a contract allowing a Hong Kong–based company to operate ports at the Panama Canal, prompting sharp warnings from Beijing and aligning closely with Washington's push to limit China's influence in the region.Are these signs that the U.S. is finally reasserting itself in the Western Hemisphere? Is the message landing with China and Russia as Washington draws firmer lines around the Panama Canal, Venezuela, and regional security? And after years of U.S. neglect that allowed Beijing to become a top trading partner for many Latin American countries, can renewed attention actually push adversaries out and deliver lasting influence?Check out these sources that shaped our Fellows' discussion: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-calls-panama-court-ruling-ck-hutchison-port-contracts-shameful-pathetic-2026-02-03/https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-meet-colombian-president-gustavo-petro-venezuela-nicolas-maduro-rcna257101 @morganlroach@jamil_n_jaffer@lestermunson@andykeiserLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/m8I6GmEM9pI Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Matt turn to Sudan, where a brutal civil war has entered its third year and now stands as one of the world's worst humanitarian catastrophes. As fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces continues to displace millions and drive staggering civilian casualties, regional powers are deepening their involvement. With Turkey, Egypt, the UAE, and others backing opposing sides, the conflict is increasingly shaped by proxy warfare and emerging military technologies.What does this escalating proxy fight mean for U.S. interests? As Washington pulls back traditional aid tools and shifts its foreign policy posture toward trade and economic leverage, does the U.S. still have influence in a conflict this severe? How should policymakers think about Sudan's strategic geography, especially as China and Russia look for openings to expand their footprint? And in a war where outside actors fuel the violence but Sudanese leaders bear responsibility, what role, if any, should the United States play?Check out these sources that shaped our Fellows' discussion: https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/general/sudan-humanitarian-situation-is-worst-crisis-of-2025/ar-AA1SIQ00?ocid=BingNewsVerphttps://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/sudans-war-torn-capital-sees-commercial-flight-land-129749973 https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/01/world/africa/egypt-sudan-drones.html @morganlroach@jamil_n_jaffer@NotTVJessJones@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/V-2AvosoABM Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Fault Lines Episode 551: Between Rhetoric and Reality: What's Going on in IranToday, Morgan, Jamil, Matt, and Jess take a closer look at Iran, where widespread unrest continues largely out of view. Reports suggest protests have erupted in hundreds of cities, with tens of thousands killed or detained as the regime has tightened control, shut down the internet, and doubled down on its support for the Ayatollah. As Europe moves to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization and U.S. naval forces operate nearby, President Trump has issued stark warnings, calling on Tehran to end its nuclear ambitions and stop killing protesters, while hinting at behind-the-scenes contact with Iranian interlocutors.What happens now? Is this another wave of protests destined to be crushed without meaningful international support, or is there a real window for outside pressure to make a difference? What does Trump mean when he says “help is coming,” and does credibility suffer if that help never materializes? Is the United States prepared to act, or content to wait and see yet again?@morganlroach@jamil_n_jaffer@NotTVJessJones@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/YgxnXBFULCc Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, Morgan, Andrew, and Amy break down the National Defense Strategy released last Friday, the Pentagon's core blueprint for deterring adversaries and preventing conflict. Issued just weeks after the White House rolled out its National Security Strategy, the NDS reinforces familiar themes: deterring China through strength rather than conflict, pushing allies and partners to shoulder more regional security burdens, prioritizing the Western Hemisphere, and revitalizing the U.S. defense industrial base. Does the strategy signal a meaningful pivot toward de-escalation with China? Can U.S. allies and partners realistically fulfill the burden-sharing roles the strategy assigns them? And as sovereignty, trade, and security increasingly collide, does this strategy provide a clear framework for managing overlapping global threats—or allow for too much ambiguity at a critical moment?@NotTVJessJones@lestermunson@morganlroach@AndrewBorene@amykmitchellLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/Z1HdVjwfpvM Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, and Matt discuss the removal of General Zhang Youxia, one of the most senior figures in China's military. Zheng's ouster, amid allegations of corruption and possible espionage, marks the latest in a sweeping series of purges that many say have hollowed out China's top military leadership, leaving Xi and just one other general at the apex of the Central Military Commission. As Xi appears to position himself for an unprecedented fourth term in 2027, the shakeup raises new questions about stability inside the Chinese Communist Party and the People's Liberation Army.Is Xi consolidating power or has paranoia begun to consume his own system? Do these purges weaken China's ability to act militarily, particularly toward Taiwan, or do they increase the risk of miscalculation? And as Beijing continues aggressive exercises, cyber operations, and coordination with Russia, how should the United States interpret this moment? @jamil_n_jaffer@lestermunson@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/k9_kzrJSN3s Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Les, Matthew, and Jess discuss the latest diplomatic push around Ukraine, following a flurry of high-level meetings at Davos and beyond. President Trump and President Zelensky met for more than an hour as the World Economic Forum wrapped up, while Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff traveled to Russia to meet with Vladimir Putin. For the first time since the war began, American, Ukrainian, and Russian officials are now slated to meet face-to-face in Abu Dhabi to discuss military and security issues, raising questions about whether momentum toward a negotiated settlement is finally building.But are we actually any closer to peace? What would it take for Putin to seriously engage, given his repeated rejection of past proposals and the political risks he faces at home? Is Trump's increasingly tough rhetoric a signal of leverage, hinting at greater military support for Ukraine if diplomacy fails, or a strategy to give Putin a face-saving off-ramp? @morganlroach@lestermunson@WMattHayden@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/HA-taYy4ero Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess discuss Greenland as President Trump arrives at the World Economic Forum in Davos and once again places the Arctic island at the center of global attention. While Trump's rhetoric has sparked backlash across Europe, the debate raises serious strategic questions: Greenland's growing importance to U.S. national security, its role in Arctic defense, and why Washington has sought greater influence over the territory for more than a century.Should we be wringing our hands or rending our garments over the Kerfuffle with Europe? Does the United States have a legitimate national security interest in Greenland, and if so, what's the right way to pursue it without fracturing NATO unity? How should Washington balance pressure with reassurance to allies already rattled by the war in Ukraine? And as Trump enters his second year in office, what does the Greenland debate tell us about how this administration plans to wield power going forward?@lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@morganlroach@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/RTw7qRU1Z6U Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, Andrew, and Joshua take a step back from the headlines for a Fun Friday roundtable on the best and worst American foreign policy decisions, inspired by a recent Council on Foreign Relations article drawing on conversations with the Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations. From the Marshall Plan and Bretton Woods to PEPFAR and the peaceful end of the Cold War in Europe, the team reflects on moments when U.S. leadership, economic power, and long-term thinking paid real dividends.What separates foreign policy successes from failures? Why do some hard-power decisions look effective at first but unravel over time? And as the U.S. looks ahead, what should decision-makers keep firmly in mind before reaching for any one instrument of power?Check out the article that helped shape our Fellows' discussion: https://www.cfr.org/ten-best-ten-worst-us-foreign-policy-decisions/?utm_source=newsrelease&utm_campaign=best-worst-2026&utm_medium=email&utm_term=PressCFR%20-%20Including%20Members%20and%20Staff @NotTVJessJones@lestermunson@AndrewBorene@joshuachuminskiLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/FR_W1-fpr5o Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Andy revisit Iran as protests continue to escalate and the reported death toll climbs into the thousands. President Trump was briefed this week on response options and has publicly signaled support for demonstrators, saying that “help is on the way.” What does meaningful support for Iranian protesters actually look like? Should the United States openly back regime change—and if so, how, given limited military presence and a fractured opposition? Are covert action, cyber operations, and coordination with regional partners more realistic tools than overt force? And as Trump isolates Iran economically and diplomatically, is this the beginning of a pressure campaign that could genuinely tip the balance, or another moment of outrage without follow-through?@lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@morganlroach@andykeiserLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/bVOL-Ec7zB0 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess discuss escalating protests across Iran, where economic collapse and political repression are driving nationwide unrest. Demonstrations that began with small business owners have spread to major cities, prompting a violent crackdown by security forces and an internet shutdown. As the regime insists the situation is under control, President Trump has warned publicly that continued mass killings could trigger U.S. action, while Iranian officials have quietly floated the possibility of renewed nuclear talks.Is this protest movement meaningfully different from past uprisings that fizzled under pressure? Has the regime been weakened enough, internally and externally, for unrest to threaten its hold on power? And with Iran's opposition fractured and no clear alternative government waiting in the wings, what leverage does the United States actually have if it wants to support change without creating a far more dangerous vacuum?@lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@morganlroach@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/wS56YpITIdI Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, Morgan, and Matthew discuss why Greenland has suddenly become a focal point of U.S. foreign policy. President Trump has reignited debate by publicly suggesting the United States should own Greenland, escalating rhetoric well beyond existing basing rights under the 1951 agreement with Denmark. While administration officials have walked back any suggestion of force, Greenlandic leaders have rejected the idea outright—even as the island's strategic importance grows amid heightened Arctic competition involving Russia and China.What national security concerns is the administration trying to address with its approach to Greenland? Is the focus on Greenland driven by concerns over Russian and Chinese military activity, access to critical minerals, missile overflight risks, or all of the above? And while the U.S. case for Greenland's strategic importance is clear, does the administration's approach risk alienating Denmark and other NATO allies — and if so, at what cost to Arctic cooperation?@morganlroach@lestermunson@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/65o2FCiBrjw Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Les, Jamil, and Algene discuss the United States' announcement that it would provide security guarantees to Ukraine as part of a potential peace settlement with Russia. The move follows discussions in Paris between U.S. and European partners, outlining a proposed security architecture for Ukraine and “legally binding” commitments meant to support a postwar order. U.S. Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have both indicated President Trump's backing, and Ukrainian officials say roughly 90 percent of a peace framework is agreed—though major territorial questions remain unresolved.What do security guarantees actually mean in practice, and do they bring Ukraine any closer to a durable peace? Are these commitments meaningful deterrents, or largely symbolic without clear enforcement mechanisms? And with Russia showing no willingness to accept a ceasefire—or the presence of Western peacekeepers—what happens if Moscow simply ignores the framework altogether? Check out the sources that helped shape our Fellows' discussion: @morganlroach@lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@algenesajeryLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 541: Operation Maximum Resolve - Regime Tailoring?Today, Les, Morgan, Jess, and Matthew discuss the U.S. operation in Venezuela over the weekend that extracted President Nicolás Maduro and his wife and brought them to New York to face drug trafficking charges. While the Trump administration says no U.S. troops are currently on the ground and denies plans to run Venezuela's day-to-day affairs, the operation follows months of apparent intelligence and military preparation and coincides with a significant U.S. naval presence offshore. Former Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has been sworn in as interim president, setting the stage for a highly uncertain next phase inside the country.Is this regime change—or a more limited leadership removal designed to avoid the mistakes of past U.S. interventions? Does extracting a single leader offer a cheaper, more effective alternative to invasion and occupation, or does it raise serious questions about sovereignty and international law? And can the United States translate a stunning military and intelligence success into lasting deterrence, democratic opportunity, and a rollback of Russian and Chinese influence in the Western Hemisphere?@lestermunson@morganlroach@nottvjessjonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/OEyq3qnwbyo Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 540: The Holiday Special - Unwrapping 2025Today, Jessica, Jamil, Morgan, Lester, Les, Lipsey, Matthew, and Marc take stock of a consequential year in U.S. national security. From President Trump's push to brand himself as a “peace president”—highlighted by multiple diplomatic agreements and the Gaza peace plan—to moments of hard power, including U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear program, 2025 defied easy labels. The team reflects on undercovered but significant developments as well: the dismantling of the U.S. foreign assistance architecture, growing concern over advanced technology transfers to China, sweeping changes to the federal workforce through DOGE, and a renewed focus on the Western Hemisphere, particularly Venezuela and Haiti.Looking ahead to 2026, what will ultimately shape U.S. national security: the trajectory of Ukraine, a recalibration of China policy, or the domestic pressures of a midterm election year? Are tariffs becoming a permanent tool of U.S. leverage or a temporary negotiating tactic? And as the administration continues to reshape how American power is exercised, which lessons from 2025 will matter most?@jamil_n_jaffer@nottvjessjones@lestermunson@WashingtonFlack@morganlroachLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 539: Live from RNDF: Ambassador YuiAs part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Jess and Jamil sit down with Ambassador Yui, Taiwan's Representative to the United States. With more than 35 years of diplomatic experience—including senior leadership roles in Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and postings across Europe, Latin America, and the U.S.—Ambassador Yui offers a uniquely informed view of the shifting security landscape in the Indo-Pacific and Taiwan's evolving role within it.How does Taiwan assess the current deterrence environment amid intensifying PLA activity and hybrid pressure from Beijing? Where are the biggest opportunities, and remaining obstacles, in United States–Taiwan defense, economic, and technological partnership? And as Taiwan advances major modernization efforts, from asymmetric defense to cyber resilience and semiconductor security, what should Washington understand about the capabilities, priorities, and challenges shaping Taiwan's strategic future?@jamil_n_jaffer@nottvjessjonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Jess and Jamil sit down with Washington Harbour Partners Founder and Chief Investment Officer Mina Faltas - with a surprise appearance from NSI Advisory Board Member and Silverado Policy Accelerator co-founder Dmitri Alperovitch. Together, they explore how private capital, technological innovation, and strategic competition are reshaping the future of American and allied deterrence. How are investors evaluating risk in an era defined by U.S.–China rivalry, hybrid conflict, and accelerating breakthroughs in technology? What role should private capital play in national security, and where is the market still mispricing geopolitical and regulatory risk? And as cyber and space become more central to modern conflict, how can the U.S. and its allies strengthen resilience and build the next generation of deterrence?@NotTVJessJones@jamil_n_jafferLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/pPe4xGxqF2w Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Jamil and Jess sit down with Congressman Don Bacon, retired Air Force Brigadier General and chair of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Cyber, Information Technologies, and Innovation. How should Congress prioritize modernization as China, Russia, and other adversaries accelerate their investment in emerging technologies? What lessons from Ukraine should shape U.S. doctrine, acquisitions, and alliance cooperation? And how should the U.S. think about offensive cyber, AI-enabled capabilities, and the future of deterrence in a rapidly evolving threat landscape?@jamil_n_jaffer@morganlroachLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/eU3qAdj1P6M Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Jess and Morgan sit down with Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, former U.S. National Security Advisor. Drawing on insights from his decades of service and his work shaping the U.S. military's future force, McMaster helps us understand what's truly new in today's era of great-power competition and rapid technological change - and why this moment might be when Russia is at its weakest. (If I am remembering correctly talked a lot about Russia)How should policymakers think about deterrence in a world where battlefields stretch from Europe to the Indo-Pacific to cyberspace? What historical “rhymes” matter most right now? What gives McMaster confidence in America's ability to compete and what keeps him up at night?@nottvjessjones@morganlroachLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/UPUQgEVSV08 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Morgan and Jess speak with Dan Jablonsky, CEO of Ursa Major. They discuss how startups and nontraditionals are reshaping the defense technology landscape, the strategic importance of next-generation rocket propulsion, and the role of manufacturing innovation in strengthening U.S. and allied capabilities. What role should industry play in modern deterrence? How can the United States accelerate adoption of cutting-edge systems while building trust between government and industry? And as emerging threats—from hypersonics to hybrid conflict—challenge traditional military advantage, how can U.S. innovators help maintain the technological edge that underpins American and allied security?@morganlroach@nottvjessjonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/9__6jFUFYoY Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess discuss the Trump Administration's newly released National Security Strategy. They break down the major pillars of the strategy, from the administration's call for “peace through strength” and its renewed emphasis on economic security, reindustrialization, and energy dominance, to its focus on burden-shifting with allies, deterring adversaries, and reasserting U.S. primacy in key regions, including the Western Hemisphere, the Indo-Pacific, and Europe.What does this strategy signal about the Trump Administration's priorities heading into 2026? How does it reshape America's approach to allies, competitors, and emerging technologies? And what does it reveal, explicitly and implicitly, about the administration's theory of deterrence in an age defined by simultaneous regional crises and great-power rivalry?Check out these sources that helped shape our fellows' discussions: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf@morganlroach@jamil_n_jaffer@nottvjessjonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/xxSDkMBoVl8 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Jamil, Les, and Amy dig into the latest round of U.S.-Russia peace talks after Vladimir Putin spent nearly five hours behind closed doors with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. No breakthrough occurred, but the stakes keep rising: Putin says Russia is “ready” for a conflict with Europe, Ukraine is grappling with corruption scandals and the resignation of Zelenskyy's chief of staff, Sudan is offering Moscow a Red Sea naval base, and the Senate's sanctions bill is still stalled.Did anything new actually from the talks? What should we make of the economic incentives reportedly being floated in some of these negotiations? What would it take for the U.S. to move this conflict toward an endgame?Check out these sources that helped shape our fellows' discussions: @nottvjessjones@lestermunson@amykmitchell@jamil_n_jafferLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/r3iwMur3tQ0 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess discuss rising tensions around Venezuela, where the U.S. has surged military assets into the region after months of striking drug-running vessels, and President Trump is set to meet with his cabinet tonight to decide next steps. Reports suggest an ultimatum may have been delivered to Nicolás Maduro over the weekend. One early U.S. strike is now under bipartisan scrutiny after allegations that American forces fired on survivors—prompting both Armed Services Committees to open investigations into the legality and authorities behind current operations.What are the administration's strategic aims, and is the U.S. prepared for the consequences of the largest Western military buildup in the Caribbean since 1994? How will Congress' stepped-up oversight shape the administration's options? And with a streamlined NSC structure and an administration leaning into ambiguity, does this campaign reflect a coherent strategy—or a high-risk pressure play designed to keep allies and adversaries off balance?Check out these sources that helped shape our fellows' discussions: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article313261442.html https://stories.theconversation.com/tracking-the-us-military-in-the-caribbean/ @lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@morganlroach@nottvjessjonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/-CiYGzP1RnU Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess unpack new revelations about the 28-point Ukraine peace proposal. Over the weekend several senators went to the press and announced that Secretary of State Rubio had told them the plan was drafted originally by Russians. The White House attempted to walk that back, saying it was a U.S. plan that incorporated Russian ideas, but the concessions it outlines for Ukraine have reinforced suspicions about its true authorship. Has the plan moved talks forward, or revealed how week Washington's leverage really is? Can Zelensky navigate between maintaining U.S. support and avoiding a deal that rewards Russian aggression? And with President Trump pushing for progress, are we on the path toward a ceasefire–or simply watching the opening moves of a long and messy negotiation?Check out these sources that helped shape our fellows' discussions: https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-28-points-russia https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-peace-plan-europe-witkoff-33545b140c5bfbbc5e9061a739802e54 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly1ypqlle0o @lestermunson@nottvjessjones@morganlroach@jamil_n_jafferLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/KRM8oQysfvg Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Jamil, Les, and Morgan break down the Trump Administration's new 28-point peace plan for Ukraine — a proposal that would cap Ukraine's military size, cede territory to Russia, redirect frozen Russian assets toward reconstruction, and ban future NATO membership. Moscow's envoy praised the plan, Kyiv says it plans on discussing it with the White House, and European allies and some Congressional members express alarm over the terms.Is this the beginning of the end of the war, or a diplomatic dead end? What does the proposal signal about the White House's larger Ukraine-Russia strategy? Does this proposal reward Russian aggression and risk legitimizing invasion as a negotiating tool?Check out these sources that helped shape our fellows' discussions: https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-28-points-russia https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-peace-plan-europe-witkoff-33545b140c5bfbbc5e9061a739802e54 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly1ypqlle0o @nottvjessjones@morganlroach@jamil_n_jaffer@lestermunsonLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/HDEgKTQjdGI Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Jamil, Matt, and Jess unpack Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's high-profile visit to Washington, his first since the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, and a landmark $1 trillion investment announcement alongside a U.S. agreement to sell the Kingdom F-35 fighter jets. The visit, including a business summit at the Kennedy Center, underscores Saudi Arabia's growing economic and strategic importance to the United States.As President Trump deepens ties with Riyadh and pushes for Saudi normalization with Israel through the Abraham Accords, is this a pragmatic step toward regional stability — or a transactional bet with long-term risks? Can trade and tech cooperation truly build a new Middle Eastern “NATO,” or is Washington gambling on partnerships that could prove fragile?@morganlroach@jamil_n_jaffer@nottvjessjones@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/ez6-oyaTOds Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess break from the usual policy deep-dives for a special episode: a review of A House of Dynamite, the new 90-minute Netflix thriller that imagines a nuclear missile headed straight for the United States. The film unfolds through three overlapping vantage points—a Navy captain running the White House Situation Room, a deputy national security advisor suddenly thrust into a life-or-death decision cycle, and a Secretary of Defense guiding a president portrayed by Idris Elba. With standout performances from Jared Harris, Rebecca Ferguson, and newcomer Gabriel Basso, the movie blends high-stakes crisis response with surprisingly grounded depictions of how the U.S. government might react in the unthinkable scenario of an inbound nuclear strike.How realistic is Hollywood's take on nuclear command and control? Which perspective offers the most credible view of how the system actually works? And what does the film get right—or wrong—about the speed, uncertainty, and pressure of decision-making when minutes determine national survival?@lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@nottvjessjones@morganlroachLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/a_NHqB2PIv8 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, Matt, and Algene discuss Iraq's parliamentary elections, where Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani's coalition claimed victory, though history suggests the post-election power struggles are just beginning. With half of Iraq's population under 25, voter turnout strong, and political violence relatively low, this election could mark a step forward for Iraqi democracy.What do the results mean for U.S. strategy in the region as Washington prepares to reduce its troop presence by 2026? Can Iraq resist deepening Iranian influence at a time when Syria's landscape is shifting? And as the U.S. pushes to expand the Abraham Accords and secure energy stability, will Baghdad emerge as a partner for regional progress — or a pressure point for America's Middle East policy?Check out this source that helped shape our fellows' discussion: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iraqs-prime-minister-iran-backed-militias-set-for-difficult-negotiations-after-election-4668abb8?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqfwA1yCAZTvMYMMp3i22_AkbCNDrQA-Ipis82JTDlJhiWMQ7gXCr_20BU6k91s%3D&gaa_ts=6916447b&gaa_sig=A231zbhaHMgoOWVXiVlE9kmZm1YmZvrIr9lVtai7yGoudpX6Xg-xoN3621z8UoZoEU1mt7i5d4OsmTh2rcb7JA%3D%3D4dd7f26b8e98 @nottvjessjones@lestermunson@AlgeneSajery@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/94KRBnShAKY Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Jamil, Les, and Jess discuss the Trump administration's deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group to the Caribbean as part of its intensified campaign against Latin American drug cartels. The move dramatically expands U.S. presence in the U.S. Southern Command's area of operations—with destroyers, F-35 fighters, and Reaper drones joining the effort—and has drawn a fierce response from Venezuela's Maduro regime, which launched its own military exercises in protest.What's Washington's real objective here, countering narcotics networks or signaling to Caracas? And if most fentanyl traffics through land routes via Mexico, not by sea, is this deployment really about fighting the drug trade, or about projecting power closer to Venezuela's shores? As regional partners like Colombia and the UK distance themselves from the mission, is this bold strategy a show of deterrence—or a costly display of overkill?Check out this source that helped shape our fellows' discussion: @morganlroach@lestermunson@nottvjessjones@jamil_n_jafferLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/pdQoeYya9hs Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, and Jess discuss the Trump administration's successful effort to delay a major vote at the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the UN body that oversees global shipping regulations. The proposal would have taxed vessels based on carbon emissions, with revenues funneled to the UN. The U.S. opposed the measure, warning it would raise shipping fuel costs and threaten to worsen inflation at home. After intense U.S. lobbying—described by some as bullying—the IMO voted to postpone the plan.Was this coercion or simply hardball diplomacy? Should the UN, through the IMO, have the authority to levy global taxes in the first place? And as the administration frames its push as economic self-defense, does this signal a broader rejection of multilateral climate measures that Washington sees as bad for business?Check out this souce that helped shape our fellows' discussion: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/climate/trump-climate-international-bullying.html @lestermunson@nottvjessjones@jamil_n_jafferLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/E-gic_8yWKo Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Morgan, and Andy unpack a potentially dramatic diplomatic turn in Syria-US relations. The United Nations has lifted sanctions on President Ahmed al-Sharaa—reportedly at Washington's urging—clearing the way for his historic visit to the White House next week. Once a commander in the al-Nusra Front, al-Sharaa now leads a Syrian government pivoting from isolation to engagement, as the Trump Administration considers establishing a U.S. military presence at an airbase in Damascus.What does this mean for Trump's broader Middle East vision of normalization with Israel? Can Syria's fragile new government withstand domestic backlash as it moves closer to Washington? Is this a genuine pivot away from Iran and Russia, or just another chapter in Syria's long game of survival?@nottvjessjones@morganlroach@andykeiserLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/ImZo1I2hd7U Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Les, Amy, and Andy discuss the recent political violence in Tanzania, where President Samia Suluhu Hassan claimed victory with 98% of the vote in an election widely condemned as neither free nor fair. Opposition candidates were arrested, protests have been violently suppressed, and Tundu Lissu, leader of the banned Chadema party, faces treason charges for calling for election reform. Once seen as one of East Africa's more stable democracies, this marks a sharp and troubling turn for Tanzania.What does this mean for democratic backsliding across Africa—and beyond? Could instability in Tanzania open new opportunities for China and Russia to expand their influence in the region? And as the United States continues to pull back from Africa, can Washington afford to keep treating the continent as an afterthought while authoritarian powers move in?@morganlroach@lestermunson@amykmitchell@andykeiserLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/V7rxk5Ujndw Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Andrew discuss President Trump's latest statement that U.S. troops may be sent to Nigeria to confront what he described as terrorists targeting Christians. The post sparked immediate controversy, with some analysts noting the Administration may be conflating two distinct conflicts: sectarian violence between Fulani herders and Christian farmers, and the extremist insurgencies of Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa. President Tinubu has said he would welcome U.S. security assistance, but the situation on the ground—and Washington's strategy—remain deeply unclear.Is the Trump administration misdiagnosing Nigeria's complex conflict? What would an American military intervention look like, especially after the U.S. was expelled from Niger and pulled back counterterrorism operations across the Sahel? And with terrorist groups resurging in West Africa and Russia's Africa Corps expanding its footprint, can the U.S. afford to stay disengaged or is it about to overcorrect?@lestermunson@morganlroach@jamil_n_jaffer@andrewboreneLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/NTXlBlBCFac Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Martha, Morgan, and Jess discuss the alarming developments in Mali, where an Al Qaeda affiliate may soon control the country outright. With the U.S. ordering Americans to evacuate and fuel imports blockaded across the country, the situation in Bamako is rapidly deteriorating. Could this be the moment Al Qaeda transitions from insurgency to governance — collecting taxes, enforcing rule, and projecting power beyond the Sahel?If an Al Qaeda-linked regime does consolidate control, what would that mean for U.S. policy, recognition, confrontation, or containment? How might this reshape counterterrorism strategy in Africa, especially as Russia and China expand their influence in the region? And with extremist groups rising across the Sahel and no confirmed Assistant Secretary for African Affairs, can Washington afford to stay on the sidelines?@lestermunson@morganlroach@marthamillerdc@nottvjessjonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/biwoX319D1c Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Martha, Sarah, and Jess discuss the latest developments in the U.S.–Japan relationship following President Trump's meeting with Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. The two leaders announced a wide-ranging set of agreements, including deals on F-35 fighter jets, missile systems, and a Memorandum of Understanding to finance new shipbuilding and critical mineral projects. With China controlling about 90 percent of the world's rare earth supply, the new MOU commits both nations to support mining ventures within six months—underscoring their shared goal of securing and diversifying critical mineral supply chains.What does this deal mean for U.S. national security and economic resilience? Can Washington and Tokyo's “friendshoring” strategy strengthen defenses against China's dominance in the minerals market—or is it more symbolic than strategic? And as Trump eyes a potential deal with Beijing that could also touch on critical minerals, will this partnership with Japan bolster U.S. leverage—or complicate the calculus?@morganlroach@marthamillerdc@nottvjessjones@SarahStewartDCLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/purBnjeXBiM Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Martha, Les, Morgan, and Jess discuss the latest from President Trump's Asia tour — with stops in Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea ahead of this week's high-profile U.S.–China meeting at APEC. With a new framework reportedly in place between Trump and Xi, including quarterly check-ins, Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, cooperation on critical minerals, and a fentanyl agreement, the conversation turns to what real progress looks like.Will this meeting mark a genuine thaw in U.S.–China relations or just a temporary easing of tensions? Can these trade and minerals agreements meaningfully rebalance competition, or do they simply restore the uneasy status quo? With the U.S. economy in question, could this meeting deliver practical gains to American workers and industries – or will the promises fade once the cameras turn off?More information on today's topic: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1lqj5lz4geo @marthamillerdc@nottvjessjones@lestermunson@morganlroachLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/HF0LJzrnLFc Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Martha, Les, and Matt break down the newest wave of U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil exports — measures designed to cut off Russia's funding for war in Ukraine. The package includes new secondary sanctions aimed at major buyers like India and China. India is signaling a possible rethink of its Russian oil purchases, Europe is weighing the use of frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine, and — for the first time in months — the U.S. and its allies seem aligned on a tougher, coordinated economic strategy.Will this escalation of targeting Russia's oil exports finally dent its war machine? Or has Russia already perfected the art of sanctions evasion? If these economic measures are paired with renewed military support for Ukraine, could that combination finally shift momentum on the battlefield?More information on today's topic: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd6758pn6ylo https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/10/23/russia-nuclear-subs-western-technology-surevillance/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/10/23/eu-frozen-russian-money-ukraine/ @nottvjessjones@lestermunson@marthamillerdc@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/RmkPm4F-3Rs Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Martha, Andy, and Jess discuss Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's White House visit and a pair of major announcements: a reinvigorated AUKUS partnership and a new U.S.–Australia critical minerals deal. While both moves signal deepening strategic and economic ties, the real test will be delivery, building nuclear-powered submarines, securing rare earth supply chains, and reducing reliance on China's market dominance.Can Washington and Canberra turn these announcements into action, or will timelines and industrial bottlenecks slow progress into the 2030s? Is this partnership a true step toward allied self-reliance, or mostly a political win for both leaders? And with China already waging what some would call supply chain warfare, how quickly can the U.S. and its allies really catch up?More information on today's topic: https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-anthony-albanese-submarine-australia-trade-7db18e2b942176623dcad283bfad3a6c https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us-expedite-nuclear-powered-subs-australia-sit-near-chinas-doorstep https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/china-responds-us-australia-rare-earths-dealvhttps://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/10/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-closes-billion-dollar-deals-with-australia/ @lestermunson@marthamillerdc@nottvjessjones@andykeiserLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/3Ey3hLUZHq0 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Jamil, Martha, and Jess unpack the growing tension between Washington and Bogotá after President Trump accused Colombian President Gustavo Petro of running a drug manufacturing regime and threatened to slash aid and impose tariffs. The escalation follows Colombia's inclusion last month on the U.S. list of countries failing to cooperate with anti-narcotics efforts—and a U.S. strike on a Colombian vessel in the Caribbean that Washington claims was tied to narco-trafficking.Is this just political posturing or a real rupture with one of America's closest partners in Latin America? Can Trump's hard line curb Colombia's rising coca production, or will it drive Bogotá closer to China and other regional players? And with talk of covert operations in Venezuela, is the administration risking another fight in the neighborhood just as it needs allies the most?@marthamillerdc@nottvjessjones@morganlroach@jamil_n_jafferLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/fLCzJZfmi-E Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Martha, Les, Jess, and Algene discuss President Trump's renewed focus on Ukraine following the Gaza ceasefire. President Zelensky is in Washington this week to discuss the possibility of Washington providing Tomahawk missiles—a move seen as both a gesture of support for Kyiv and a signal to Moscow. But after Trump's recent call with Vladimir Putin, it's hard to say exactly where things stand or how far the administration is willing to go.Is this strategic balance between deterrence and diplomacy sustainable? Can Trump apply lessons from the Israel–Hamas peace deal to the Russia–Ukraine conflict, or are the stakes, and the adversaries, fundamentally different? And with Congress stalled on tougher sanctions, will symbolic gestures like limited missile transfers have real impact, or is this summit diplomacy without substance?@marthamillerdc@nottvjessjones@lestermunson@AlgeneSajeryLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/GycTO7AQ31U Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Jamil, Martha, and Les discuss the wave of Gen Z–led protests shaking governments across continents—from Madagascar and Nepal, where leaders have fled, to Indonesia and beyond. Driven by unemployment, corruption, and economic strain, these youth movements are leveraging social media and grassroots organizing to challenge entrenched power structures and, in some cases, topple leaders.Are we seeing a new wave of youth-driven revolutions—a social-media-era sequel to the Arab Spring? What does growing instability in strategic regions like the Mozambique Channel mean for the U.S.? And how should Washington rethink its aid, training, and partnerships as political landscapes shift under generational pressure?Check out the sources that helped shape our experts' discussion: https://apnews.com/article/madagascar-protests-rajoelina-ab1e1eb1aca45fe7e80e81314ebdb0c6 https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cqxr3y3788pt https://www.npr.org/2025/10/13/nx-s1-5573511/madagascar-president-flees-country-military-rebellion https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/oct/14/this-generation-is-defiant-gen-z-protests-set-to-resume-in-morocco-despite-deaths-and-arrests https://www.dw.com/en/gen-z-protests-why-are-asias-youth-so-angry/a-74349495 https://www.nbcnews.com/world/asia/protests-asia-gen-z-nepal-indonesia-rcna231096 @nottvjessjones@lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@marthamillerdcLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/t6dAKr7O_fU Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Amy, and Matt unpack the breakthrough in the Israel–Hamas peace process and what it means for U.S. foreign policy under President Trump. With the release of all remaining Israeli hostages, the exchange of Palestinian prisoners, and the implementation of Trump's 20-point plan, the first phase of the agreement is underway—marking a major diplomatic win for the administration.But what comes next? The team explores the broader implications: from renewed U.S. influence in the Middle East to the potential for progress on other global fronts. Could this model be applied to challenges like the war in Ukraine or U.S.–China trade tensions? Is the Trump approach to diplomacy—high stakes, high visibility—emerging as a new blueprint for American power projection?@lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@amykmitchell@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/wxbO8chMjSM Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.