ChinaEconTalk

What can Mao Zedong teach us about Donald Trump? To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed the legendary sinologist Orville Schell, who visited China during the Cultural Revolution and is currently at the Asia Society. We discuss… Mao Zedong's psychology and political style, Similarities and differences between Mao and Trump, How Mao-era traumas reverberate in modern China, including how the Cultural Revolution has influenced the Xi family, How Zhou Enlai and Deng Xiaoping survived the Cultural Revolution, and which of their tactics could be useful in modern America, What civil society can do to defend democracy over the next four years. Co-hosting is Alexander Boyd, associate editor at China Books Review and former ChinaTalk intern. Read Orville's article, "Trump's Cultural Revolution," here. Read the Asia Society piece on religion and political power here. Orville's crazy Asia Society event, From Pontius Pilate to Chairman Mao: Religion and Politics https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opw9vqpPBqQ&ab_channel=AsiaSociety Book recommendations: Joseph Torigian - The Party's Interests Come First: The Life of Xi Zhongxun, Father of Xi Jinping Perry Link - The Anaconda in the Chandelier - ⁠excerpt⁠ from ChinaFile William Shirer - The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich Victor Klemperer - I Will Bear Witness: A Diary of the Nazi Years, 1933-1941 Outro music: Bach's Partita No. 1 for Solo Violin in B Minor, BWV 1002: VIII. Double, Gidon Kremer https://open.spotify.com/track/3x1Rdpgy6QGSlW9tItHYdm?si=20fa2051dc5d4f91 Aria from J.S. Bach Cantata 'Schwingt freudig euch empor' https://open.spotify.com/track/5pIy4Gll1YywqKX25EbbOb?si=520327db35f54201 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Just how weird will the AI-powered future be? To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Nathan Lambert, who writes the Interconnects newsletter and researches AI at the Allen Institute. We get into… Why OpenAI is trending toward engagement farming and sycophancy, The state of Chinese AI innovation six months post-DeepSeek, and the factors influencing diffusion of Chinese vs American models, Meta's organizational culture and how it influences the quality of the Llama models, Unconventional career advice for the AI age. Nathan's book recommendation: Careless People: A Cautionary Tale of Power, Greed, and Lost Idealism by Sarah Wynn-Williams Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What does the future of industrial policy in America look like, and what state capacity investments are needed to get there? How does China factor into the future of the U.S. semiconductor industry? And what do government affairs offices at large technology firms actually do? To explore these questions, we're concluding our CSIS Chip Chat series with Bruce Andrews. Bruce has had a long career on Capitol Hill, led government affairs for Ford, served as Deputy Secretary of Commerce under President Obama, and most recently headed government affairs at Intel. He's now a fellow at CSIS. We discuss… The decline of bipartisanship and how to bring expertise back to Capitol Hill, The case for a new “Department of Competitiveness”  Industry's role in policymaking and what it took to get semiconductor manufacturers on board with the CHIPS Act, Why Silicon Valley suddenly became interested in politics, How to optimize industrial policy in a stick-focused political environment. Outro music: Moon River, Frank Ocean 2018 (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Does anybody really understand China? Could America pursue an abundance agenda without the threat of the PRC? Can podcasters change the world? To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, who need no introduction, as well as Dan Wang, who has written beautiful annual letters and is back in the US as a research fellow at Kotkin's Hoover History Lab. He has an excellent book called Breakneck coming out this August, but we're saving that show for a little later this year. Today, our conversation covers… The use of China as a rhetorical device in US domestic discourse, Oversimplified aspects of Chinese development, and why the bipartisan consensus surrounding Beijing might fail to produce a coherent strategy, The abundance agenda and technocratic vs prophetic strategies for policy change, How to conceptualize political actors complexly, including unions, corporations, and environmental groups, The value of podcasting and strategies for positively impacting the modern media environment. Outtro Music: Recomposed by Max Richter, I went with a deep cut Autumn 3 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUEeqvp_BrQ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Can China use military force to achieve its political goals, without triggering nuclear war? To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed Fiona Cunningham, a professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania and author of the new book, Under the Nuclear Shadow: China's Information-Age Weapons in International Security. Co-hosting today is Michael Horowitz, another Penn professor who served in Biden's Department of Defense. We discuss… How to use open source PLA documents to conduct deep research, The evolution of Chinese defense strategy, including the impact of the third Taiwan Strait crisis, Nuclear modernization and China's “no first use” policy, How the PLA makes decisions, including why they chose to develop cyber capabilities, anti-satellite weapons, and hypersonic missiles over proposed alternatives. Outtro Music: Beauty by Gui Bian https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTlfSOCwYJ8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What has happened in the past 100 days to America's science and technology ecosystem? What are China's ambitions and how is the government trying to take advantage of American uncertainty? And what can we learn from China's war mobilization exercises? To explore these questions, we're joined by Divyansh Kaushik and Alex Rubin, who both work at Beacon Global Strategies. Divyansh holds an AI PhD from Carnegie Mellon, and Alex spent the past decade at the CIA focusing on China and emerging technologies. We discuss… The Historical origins of the US R&D model, and the division of labor between universities, government, and industry, How budget cuts will impact the NSF, NIH, NIST, and DoD basic research, Why and how China attempts to emulate US research institutions, What a leaked wargame exercise from Guangdong province can tell us about China's grand strategy, How institutions like ChinaTalk can complement the IC with fresh, independent research. Outro music: The Elements - Tom Lehrer (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What is Trump doing to extended deterrence? I got Polymarket to create a market on whether a US ally will acquire nuclear weapons in 2025. It's currently trading at 8%. Are we buyers or sellers? To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Vipin Narang, professor at MIT, who served as Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense responsible for nuclear deterrence policy during the Biden administration; Pranay Vaddi, a senior fellow at the Center for Nuclear Security Policy at MIT who worked on arms control and non-proliferation on Biden's National Security Council; and Junichi Fukuda, senior research fellow at Tokyo's Sasakawa Peace Foundation. We get into… The historical development of the American nuclear umbrella, including the “software” and “hardware” components of deterrence, The probability that an American ally will proliferate by 2030, and which countries are the most likely candidates, Why France proliferated despite US objections, How the world might respond to nuclear ambitions from Poland, Japan, or Saudi Arabia, China's nuclear modernization and deterrence strategies for a multi-polar world. Here's the RAND paper cited: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GUMnuxWoapmEYCw3g3NMUHxzZ6hVwWPi/view?usp=sharing Outro music: Tom Lehrer - Who's Next? (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Rush Doshi (CFR, Biden NSC, author of the excellent The Long Game) and I run through the US-China tale of the tape. The future of America's relationship with its allies may be the key hinge variable for whether this century turns out to be China's to define. Do give this one a listen. Especially if you're JD Vance! See Rush's Foreign Affairs article with Kurt Campbell here: https://archive.is/ZSTKP Some Japanese outtro music to give the allies some love: Karenai by Bonbero: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFJcIOMsOaU&ab_channel=Bonbero What's Popping by JP THE WAVY and friends: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1LOXU_hBNo&ab_channel=JPTHEWAVY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bill Reinsch of CSIS and the Trade Guys podcast with Jay Goldberg of Digits and Dollars and the Circuit podcast join to dicuss Trump's tariff impact on semis on another CSIS-ChinaTalk Chip Chat! Bill lays out the four clashing instincts driving policy in MAGA 2.0: revenge for decades of perceived slights, a bargaining bluff to coerce concessions, a fast‑cash revenue grab, and a fantasy of instant on‑shore fab construction. Jay walks through the on‑the‑ground fallout: chip designers worrying about losing China sales, GPU‑specific duties warping supply chains, and a loophole that lets boards assembled in Mexico skate by. We explore how blanket tariffs could accelerate China's ascent in analog and trailing‑edge chips, undermine Biden‑era “ally‑first” export‑control diplomacy, and leave Commerce's BIS badly under‑resourced to enforce the rules. We also get into whether allies will sign up for Washington's crusade after being slapped themselves, and whether Nvidia, Intel, and Tesla are “too important to punish.” Outtro Music: Well Get It, Tommy Dorsey https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgiHzCiB5Aw Bible‑Verse Sign‑off “Plans fail for lack of counsel, but with many advisers they succeed.” — Proverbs 15:22 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dylan Patel is a man on a mission. We get into how: Huawei is giving NVIDIA a run for their money What USG needs to do about it What smart semiconductor tariff policy would look like o3 Outtro Music, a little texas country for you all: Ernest Tubb, Walking the Floor Over You https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQIRRReZIls Hank Thompson, Wild Side of Life https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPvARPfquPc And a completely wild post-WWII song I did not feel comfortable putting on the feed but worth a listen for the wtf factor: Ernest Tubb, Filipino Baby https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WXnoCyKGw8&pp=0gcJCdgAo7VqN5tD Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Does America still have what it takes to stand up to China? Does short-term military readiness trade off with long-term strategy? What does the US need to do today to stay competitive for the rest of the century? “Tony Stark” is the author of Breaking Beijing, a Substack examining the military dimensions of US-China competition. Tony's Substack goes deep on subjects you didn't know you needed to understand, like Arctic policy, and takes a refreshing step back to look at great power competition holistically. Tony is also the author of Ex Supra, a sci-fi thriller about a near-future US-China war. Today, we discuss… What it will take to win the 21st century, and what America needs to prioritize in the short, medium, and long term, Why investing in education, basic science research, and foreign aid pay dividends in military readiness, Why Washington is short on coherent China strategy, Taiwan's impact on global nonproliferation efforts, How AI could change warfare, even if AGI can't be considered a “wonder weapon.” Outro music: Cmon - Fred Again (YouTube link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Doug gives his "we're heading for the end of the dollar-based world order" take. Dylan has no idea what he's talking about when it comes to macro or politics. We fail to arrive at the 2011 Obama-Boehner deal. I had a fever during the recording so don't really talk. 1930s-energy outtro music: Victoria Spivey, Detroit Moan, 1936 https://open.spotify.com/track/7L3GgSuguDJXi1msw6Pe7W?si=ab99d3eea65647eb Judy Garland, Over the Rainbow, 1938 https://open.spotify.com/track/3wAIcORchxdSkWv6v5AkaU?si=b6bfe7a8249147bb Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kevin Xu of https://interconnect.substack.com/, Matt Klein of https://theovershoot.co/, and Peter Harrell, Biden's U.S. White House as senior director for international economics in 2021-2022 and host of the new https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/security-economics/id1794022711 podcast join the show to discuss whether America's cooked. Outtro Music: Madeleine Chartrand - Tout Doucement, 1975 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e856a_xZ1TI&ab_channel=Vinyle33-45RPM Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tanner Greer of Scholar's Stage and I try to make sense of Liberation Day, the intellectual underpinnings of Trump's team, and what it all means for the world. Tanner's report: https://www.fpri.org/article/2025/03/obscurity-by-design/ Outtro Music: Nobody but You Babe, Clarence Reid, 1969 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCT7w2t8cyY 01:23 Geopolitical Implications of Trump's Management Style 35:02 Economic Vision and Industrial Renaissance 52:28 Economic Liberalism and Trump World 52:42 Industrial Policy Camps in Trump Administration 56:30 Laura Loomer and Trump World Geopolitics 01:04:04 Historical Parallels and Red Experts Problem 01:20:00 Taiwan Policy and Cultural Wars 01:29:40 China Policy and Trump's Tactical Approach Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to part two of our series on Cold War history with Sergey Radchenko. Here's part one. In today's interview, we discuss… Khrushchev's removal from power and the transition to the Brezhnev era, How the USSR and China managed their relationships with Vietnam, Sino-Soviet border conflicts, Brezhnev's negative feelings toward China, and Nixon's rapprochement, Watergate and the inability of China or the USSR to understand American politics Why the Soviets decided to invade Afghanistan, Reagan's approach to negotiations and his relationship with Gorbachev, How to manage the containment paradox and unknown adversary motives when competing with China and Russia today. Co-hosting today is Jon Sine of the Cogitations substack. Outro music: ДДТ- Родина (DDT - Motherland) (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Is there a stable state the US and China can hope for on the road to AGI? To discuss we have on today Dan Hendrycks. A CS PhD, Dan runs the Center for AI Safety and is an advisor at xAI and Scale AI. Here's his superintelligence strategy: https://www.nationalsecurity.ai/ For some more direct lessons from the Cold War to today's US-China dynamics, check out the show I did with Hal Brands (https://www.chinatalk.media/p/cold-war-lessons-for-us-china-today) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Transistor Radio boys are back. Jon of Asianometry, Doug O'Laughlin and Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis on the pod to talk about Google's AI push, Intel's new CEO, Chinese robots, and the rise of CoreWeave. Here's the article rating the clouds that SemiAnalysis wrote: https://semianalysis.com/2025/03/26/the-gpu-cloud-clustermax-rating-system-how-to-rent-gpus/ Outtro Music: Some Malaysian UK garage: GADISKU lucidrari, FITTO, Gard, 2023 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IVewUwqu1dM Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Sergey Radchenko's book, To Run the World: The Kremlin's Bid for Global Power, is a masterwork! In my mind, it's in pole position for best book of 2025. Sergey takes you into the mind of Soviet and Chinese leaders as they wrestle for global power and recognition, leaving you amused, inspired, and horrified by the small-mindedness of the people who had the power to start World War III. We get amazing vignettes like Liu Shaoqi making fun of the Americans for eating ice cream in trenches, Khrushchev pinning red stars on Eisenhower's grandkids, and Brezhnev and Andropov offering to dig up dirt on senators to help save Nixon from Watergate. Sergey earns your trust in this book, acknowledging what we can and can't know. He leaves you with a new lens to understand the Cold War and the new US-China rivalry — namely, the overwhelming preoccupation with global prestige by Cold War leaders. In this interview, we discuss… Why legitimacy matters in international politics, Stalin's colonial ambitions and Truman's strategy of containment, Sino-Soviet relations during the Stalin era and beyond, The history of nuclear blackmail, starting with the 1956 Suez crisis, Why Khrushchev couldn't save the Soviet economy. Co-hosting today is Jon Sine of the Cogitations substack. Outro music: Виталий Марков "Главное, ребята, сердцем не стареть" (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Despite leading the world in AI innovation, there's no guarantee that America will rise to meet the challenge of AI infrastructure. Specifically, the key technological barrier for data center construction within the next 5 years is new power capacity. To discuss policy solutions, ChinaTalk interviewed Ben Della Rocca, who helped write the AI infrastructure executive order and formerly served as director for technology and national security on Biden's NSC, as well as Arnab Datta, director at IFP and managing director at Employ America, and Tim Fist, a director at IFP. Arnab and Tim just published a fantastic three-part series exploring the policy changes needed to ensure that AGI is invented in the USA and deployed through American data centers. In today's interview, we discuss… The need for new power generation driven by ballooning demand for compute, The impact of the January 2025 executive order on AI infrastructure, Which energy technologies can (and can't) power gigawatt-scale AI training facilities (and why Jordan is all-in on GEOTHERMAL), Challenges for financing moonshot green power ideas and the role of government action, The failure of the market to prioritize AI lab security, and what can be done to fend off threats from adversaries and non-state actors. Outtro music: Ghost Crew - 蝴蝶武士 (Butterfly Warriors) (Youtube link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A Wuhan-developed AI agent went viral this weekend. Guests Rohit Krishnan of the substack Strange Loop Canon, Shawn Wang of Latent Space, and Dean Ball of Mercatus and Hyperdimensional join us to discuss. We get into What Manus is and isn't What Manus tells us about the broader AI ecosystem's ability to produce products we actually want to use The political economy and liability issues that AI agents will engender More ChinaTalk coverage: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/manus-chinas-latest-ai-sensation Outtro Music: La Marelu "Mala" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAB5rx8mqjM&ab_channel=LaMarelu-Topic Alaska y Dinarama "A Quién Le Importa" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uQhdDtdXg0&ab_channel=YouMoreTv-Espect%C3%A1culo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Note: This episode was recorded Wednesday February 26th, two days before Zelenskyy's press conference with J.D. Vance and Trump in the White House. Shashank Joshi (Defence Editor at The Economist) and Michael Horowitz (Biden's Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Force Development and Emerging Capabilities, now back at Penn) come on the show to discuss: Ukraine's Chances on the Battlefield: We revisit J.D. Vance's tweet war with Shashank where he claims Ukraine is fated to lose, highlighting how war is nonlinear and dependent on political cohesion, economic strength, and defense industrial capacity beyond just manpower. Trump's Pivot to Putin: We try to think through what Trump is doing with Ukraine and Russia at the strategic level and what the long term and second order consequences are. AI and the Future of Warfare: We discuss of how AGI would transform warfare, with Horowitz suggesting progress will be incremental rather than revolutionary, emphasizing government adoption challenges over 0 to 1 technical breakthroughs. "Precise Mass" in Combat: Ukrainian forces have demonstrated how AI-guided drones achieving 80%+ hit rates have changed battlefield dynamics, introducing the concept of "precise mass" - lower-cost precision systems deployed at scale across domains including air, land, and sea. See Mike's Foreign Affairs piece on the topic here: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/battles-precise-mass-technology-war-horowitz Defense Innovation Challenges: Western bureaucratic processes severely impede military innovation, with Horowitz noting that reprogramming just 0.05% of the defense budget required over 40 congressional briefings, contrasting with Ukraine's wartime innovation speed and calling for acquisition reform. Recommended Books: Under the Nuclear Shadow by Fiona Cunningham Army of None by Paul Scharre Billion Dollar Spy by David Hoffman Outtro Music: Santigold, You'll Find a Way: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IodbPh7RkBw Vampire Weekend, Walcott: https://open.spotify.com/track/0BZY839qKXibapu4S0GYE2?si=7ecc773a95ee4d62 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Can sanctions really work? What lessons can we draw from US sanctions on Iran, Russia, and China in the 21st century? To find out, we interviewed Eddie Fishman, a former civil servant at the Department of State and an Adjunct Professor at Columbia. His new book, Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, is a gripping history of the past 20 years of American sanctions policy. In this show, we'll talk about… The evolution of U.S. sanctions policy, from Iraq and Cuba to Iran and Russia, How Reagan's deal with the Saudis turned the dollar into an economic chokepoint, The incredible success of sanctions against Iran, and how that playbook could have been used to punish Russia, Historical lessons in enforcement that are relevant for export controls on China today, The role of great civil servants like Stuart Levey, Daleep Singh, Victoria Nuland, and Matt Pottinger in building state power, Institutional challenges for economic warfare and the consequences of failure to reform, Strategies for writing groundbreaking books about modern history. Outro music: 1970s Iranian Psychadelic Rock, Gole Yakhe by Kourosh Yaghmaei https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmhqVPXOKo4 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How do patents influence emerging technology innovation? How far could AI and DOGE push our current IP regime? Does it matter that China issues way more patents than the US does? To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed ​​Andrei Iancu, who served as the director of the US Patent Office under the first Trump administration. Andrei has degrees in aerospace and mechanical engineering, and worked at the legendary Hughes Aircraft Company before going to law school. He is currently in private practice at Sullivan and Cromwell. Co-hosting today is ChinaTalk editor and second year law student at Duke, Nicholas Welch. We get into… The mounting evidence that China's patent system now dominates America's, and whether these indicators constitute an emergency in the innovation ecosystem, Why some US companies now prefer Chinese courts for patent enforcement, The fundamental tension between private rights of inventors and public access to innovations, What congressional inaction on patent eligibility means for AI innovation, and the bills that congress could pass to immediately jumpstart emerging tech investment, What the current administration could do to help USPTO juice the economy, Controversy surrounding the Patent Trial and Appeal Board (PTAB), and whether DOGE could put PTAB on the chopping block, How Trump will approach patent law and intellectual property rights, including perspectives on appointments and potential reforms. Thanks to CSIS for partnering with us to bring you this episode, the first in a three-episode CSIS Chip Chat series. Outtro Music: Lil Green, I'm Going to Copyright Your Kisses (1941) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ye39JuJZ4k&ab_channel=LilGreen-Topic Nellie Hill, I'm Gunna Copyright Your Kisses (1951) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3OcMdxpWas&ab_channel=krobigraubart Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How has Chinese hegemony shaped power relations in East Asia? Why did imperial China conquer Tibet and Xinjiang but not Vietnam or Korea? Can learning from history help maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait? Today's interview begins with one shocking truth — while medieval Europe suffered under near-constant war, East Asia's Middle Ages were defined by great power peace. To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Professor David C. Kang, director of the Korean Studies Institute at USC and co-author of Beyond Power Transitions: The Lessons of East Asian History and the Future of U.S.-China Relations. We discuss… How East Asian nations managed to peacefully coexist for centuries, Why lessons from European history don't always apply in non-European contexts, Why wars begin and how they can be avoided, How to interpret outbreaks of violence in Asia — including conflicts with the Mongols, China's meddling in Vietnam, and Japan's early attempts at empire, State behaviors that cannot be explained by power transition theory alone, Whether the Thucydides trap makes U.S.-China war inevitable, Old school methods for managing cross-strait relations. Co-hosting today is Ilari Mäkelä of the On Humans podcast. Outro music: 荒城の月 "The Moon over the Ruined Castle" by 滝廉太郎 Rentarō Taki (Youtube link) Cover photo of a Song Dynasty axe-wielding god https://dragonsarmory.blogspot.com/2016/12/song-chinese-armor-in-religious.html Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dylan Patel and Doug O'Laughlin (SemiAnalysis), Jon from Asianometry and I have way too much fun talking hyperscaler capex, the AI mandate of heaven tier list, and Tim Cook succession plans. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dario Amodei is the CEO of Anthropic. In today's interview, we discuss… Whether an AI innovation race is inevitable between the US and China, How the US should update export controls in light of DeepSeek's R1 release, DeepSeek's willingness to generate information about bioweapons, Technical defenses against model distillation and AI espionage, How advanced AI could eventually impact democracy, Whether there is tension between export controls and the belief that AI will broadly increase human flourishing. Dario's blogposts: Machines of Loving Grace: https://darioamodei.com/machines-of-loving-grace On DeepSeek and Export Controls: https://darioamodei.com/on-deepseek-and-export-controls Outro Music: Lykke Li, I Follow Rivers (Magician Remix) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oS6wfWu0JvA&ab_channel=LykkeLi Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kevin Xu of Interconnected and Interconnected Capital and I knock it out of the park with a roundup episode exploring: What DeepSeek does and doesn't illustrate about Chinese innovation Tensions between open-source cosmopolitanism and nationalism built into DeepSeek and the broader Chinese tech community DeepSeek's organizational and talent management strategy, parallels to OpenAI, and what the fame will mean for the firm and Chinese AI policy What DeepSeek should and may mean for the future of export controls and broader US innovation policy The JS Tan article referenced: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/deepseeks-secret-to-success Dario's first article on our happy AI future: https://darioamodei.com/machines-of-loving-grace Dario's second article on why America needs to export control China: https://darioamodei.com/on-deepseek-and-export-controls Outtro Music: Dizkar, 愛縂時刻盛開 https://open.spotify.com/track/1rXneAS9Djts7fwRGHUeG5?si=b2b29714802948de Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Miles Brundage, a six year OpenAI vet who ran its Policy Research and AGI readiness arms, discuss why all your deepseek takes are so terrible. Outtro music: The Departure, Max Richter https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8R5Ppb9wqjY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What makes some countries more innovative than others? What role do intellectual property rights play in building national power? Does Elon Musk really give competitors free access to Tesla's patents? To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed Adam Mossoff, professor at the Antonin Scalia Law School at George Mason University. We discuss… How the patent system has shaped American society since independence, The extent to which patent policy caused the great divergence between the West and China, Whether Elon's misunderstanding of patents will become the dominant attitude of the second Trump administration, The Patent Trial and Appeal Board (PTAB) and other threats to the U.S. innovation ecosystem, How to reconcile China's IP theft with its robust domestic patent law, What the U.S. can do to facilitate innovation while competing with China in emerging technology. Outro Songs from the American Revolution: Liberty Song (Arthur F. Schrader rendition), and the Tory retort, Come Shake Your Dull Noodles (Arthur F. Schrader rendition) Thanks to the Innovation Alliance for sponsoring this episode. The Innovation Alliance is a coalition of research and development-based technology companies representing innovators, patent owners, and stakeholders who believe in the critical importance of maintaining a strong patent system that supports innovative enterprises of all sizes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Here's a best-of playlist for 2024: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/3yexkG2kvPlq68B22pjOWw?si=da3d1cf64dfe4a2ci Outtro Music: Дили-дили (Dili-dili) Artist: Гюлли Чохели (Gyulli Chokheli), 1967 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

​​Our guest today is economist Noah Smith, who made time for an in-person interview during his recent trip to Taiwan. He runs the Noahpinion substack and is the author of an upcoming book on the revival of the Japanese economy.  We discuss… The goals of Silicon Valley's pro-Trump constituency, from deregulation, to tariffs, to China policy, Whether Elon is standing up for Taiwan behind closed doors, Whether Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Poland need their own nuclear weapons, How Taiwan could bargain for independence with China's leaders post-Xi, National health insurance as a potential solution to China's aggregate demand problem, A Georgist perspective on China's real estate problem, Why China's demographic issues are overstated,  Recommendations for Taiwan's economic development. To hear more of Noah's musings, check out Econ 102, a podcast by Turpentine. Outtro music: Wifey by Dizzy Dizzo 蔡詩芸 (Youtube Link) Cover art: 清 冷枚 梧桐双兔图 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Greg Allen of CSIS and I are tired! We go through today's new export controls to stop TSMC from fabbing Huawei chips, some DRAM revisions, and discuss the past two years of Biden BIS policy and where we could all be going next. Outtro music: 大雨 - deca joins https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FFALDn1yGQ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Biden last export control, for real this time! Who does and doesn't get to build datacenters under this new regulation? To discuss, we brought on RAND's Lennart Heim, Jimmy Goodrich, Chris Miller, and Dylan Patel. Outtro Music: Afida Es & the Siglap Boys - jangan goda, Malaysia, 1967 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvXrdwKST1U&ab_channel=schutbart hasnah haron & the spiritual 70's _ bintang pujaan, Malaysia 1977 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4cMsoLttNs&ab_channel=nostalgiahassny Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Can diplomatic charisma prevent crises from escalating? Does the CCP feel conflicted about aligning with the likes of Iran and North Korea? What's the use of communicating during a great power competition? To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed R. Nicholas Burns, Biden's Ambassador to China, whose diplomatic career spans 35 years and 8 countries. We discuss… Kissinger's experience negotiating with the CCP, Why China's negotiating tactics are so different from those of the Soviet Union, How European allies are helping to push back against Chinese aggression, Great power responsibilities, and whether Chinese leaders truly appreciate the reputational costs of helping the Russians and the Houthis, Biden's victories with new partners in the Pacific, How diplomats express consequences and draw red lines during international crises, Areas of mutual interest where the U.S. and China can still engage productively, The importance of specialists in the Foreign Service.  Outro music:  Óró Mo Bháidín - Mary O'Hara Auld Lang Syne - Rendition by The Irish Rovers, originally written by Robert Burns Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To discuss the Christmas Day MAGA civil war over H1Bs and the future of US immigration policy, ChinaTalk interviewed Divyansh Kaushik, a computer science PhD and vice president of Beacon Global Strategies.  We get into… Pro-immigrant attitudes among Trump's allies in Silicon Valley Creative political maneuvering that could make high-skill immigration reform a reality Whether Vivek is right about American culture aspiring to normalcy Other areas where Elon and the tech right might spend their political influence  How nativist backlash could influence Trump's agenda Why India has yet to produce an influential, home-grown AI lab Special thanks to Mani Subramani, Gauri Subramani, and our anonymous contributor who grew up in China for sharing their reflections on immigrant parenting.  Outro song: Kishore Kumar, Rote Hue Aate Hai Sab https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e18Pgofqpnc Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jake Newby is the author of Concrete Avalanche, a free newsletter about music from China. You might remember Jake from the Chinese shoegaze election playlist, or from the tracklist he presented on ChinaTalk back in June. Now that the year is over, Jake is here to introduce his picks for the overall most interesting songs to come out of China in 2024. This tracklist includes everything from Afrobeat-influenced Beijing funk endorsed by Gilles Peterson, to an electronic track crafted in a Tibetan monastery featuring Buddhist chanting. You can find links to listen to each track individually on the ChinaTalk substack. Enjoy! 1. Golden Seeds 黄金种子 by Sleeping Dogs 2. Never Broken, Never Healed by Seon Ga 信鴿 3. Aroma Compound by ayrtbh 4. Stage Riot 舞台 by Carsick Cars 5. Hereditary Nightmare 遗 传 噩 梦 by The Swan and Blossoms 天鹅与花朵 6. Kagi 鍵 by Voision Xi 7. 物件 (Object) by Mdprl & Git Bu$y Trio 8. Night Patrol by Fazi 法兹 9. Mantra Of Buddha Akshobhya 不 动 佛 心 咒 by Howie Lee 10. Ghostbomb by Ghostmass 大鬼众 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Chris Miller of Chip War and Lennart Heim of RAND check in on the geopolitics of AI. We explore: Chinese labs' algorithmic progress (surprising to everyone but regular ChinaTalk listeners!) The geopolitical implications of scaling on test time compute What is and isn't working with US export controls And a whole lot more this was a great episode! The CSET report I referenced: https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/chinas-sti-operations/ Chris and Lennart's ChinaTalk in early 2023 https://www.chinatalk.media/p/ai-compute-101-the-geopolitics-of Outtro music: japanese citypop producers collaborating Beijinger Cheng Fangyuan in the 80s! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=403GCMhZ89Q&ab_channel=Heatwolves itself a cover of this Japanese track but better than the original https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyjnkuhRfJA&ab_channel=PopBULL Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We'll be getting into the biggest tv show of 2024, a celebrity road trip “will they or won't they divorce” show which is just as big of a hot mess as it sounds like, rigged nationalist singing competitions, megacorp boy idol capitalism corrupting something as seemingly innocent as a farming reality show, and xinjiang-set tv hit drama. Our guest today is Em who writes Active Faults, one of my favorite substacks that explores the China's entertainment industry and celebrity fandom. It is a consistently dark read but one of my favorite discoveries this year. https://activefaults.substack.com/ Puttro music: one of those foreigners who showed up the Chinese singers in 歌手， China's 'The Voice" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMpnuYBcA_I Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nathan Lambert of the excellent https://www.interconnects.ai/ newsletter and the Allen Institute joins the pod for a rundown of the biggest AI stories of this year and next. We also talk about what he's learned training advanced AI models at the Allen Institute. Outtro Music: Young and Holtful by Young-Holt Unlimited, 1969. https://open.spotify.com/track/5am0dV7aB91Q6sWqIAuurA?autoplay=true Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Commerce released its much-anticipated chip export-control updates yesterday, December 2. But today's guests are unimpressed. But are we right to have hoped for more? To discuss, I'm joined by Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis and Greg Allen from CSIS. A disclaimer: We recorded this yesterday the same day the regs were released, and given their complexity our takes are inevitably provisional. We get into: What's in the new controls: high bandwidth memory, FDPR, and the Entity List. Why key assumptions in Biden's approach to export controls limited How China's stockpiling spree may have already rendered these new rules partially obsolete, and what policymakers can do about that going forward. The law-enforcement approach vs. the counterintelligence approach, and whether export controls should be a foreign-policy tool or simply a law-enforcement activity. How the new chip controls are like removing puzzle pieces just one at a time — and why that's exactly what China wants. The “America First” rationale for domestic chip production. Why the Democrats' regulatory design philosophy has favored massive complexity to the detriment of enforcement — and what the Trump administration might do differently going forward. Outtro music: From the Netherlands! Mensen by Josine Van Dalsum https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igRkp_03UHk From Japan! Yadokari - Meiko Kaji https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJG2Wozor94 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dylan Patel, Doug O'Laughlin, Jon from Asianometry and I all chat the biggest semiconductor stories of the year. We get into energy demands for datacenters, Intel, Samsung, Nvidia, SMIC, Huawei, Deepseek and the rise of ChatGPT. Outtro music: Sabicas, Carcelera (Reflejo Andaluz) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2_nX21D8Go Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Few books have influenced me as much as the Makers of Modern Strategy series. The three volumes (published in 1942, 1986, and 2023) are indispensable to understanding statecraft, leadership, and the evolution of warfare across millennia. The New Makers of Modern Strategy (2023) is a thousand pages long and analyzes strategy from ancient Greece to the Congo. The man behind this behemoth collection is Hal Brands, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a returning ChinaTalk guest. In our conversation, we discuss: The process for compiling such an ambitious collection of essays; Unique insights and new topics covered in the 2023 edition, including Tecumseh, Kabila in the Congo, and Strategies of Equilibrium in 17th Century France; Advice for reading the book effectively; Revolutions in military affairs, from the atom bomb to quantum computers. For reference, you can compare the content of the three volumes with this spreadsheet, courtesy of Nicholas Welch. Outtro music: When This Cruel War is Over (Civil War ballad by Hermes Nye) https://open.spotify.com/track/1Zjcz6B4PromuFFXMWu8hK?si=500b718d8361421b Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices