The probability of loss of something of value
We all want our kids to be able to regulate and manage their own behavior. Kids with ADHD are particularly prone to risky behaviors, which are often a way of seeking out stimulation. How do we manage risky behavior? Listen to this insightful Parenting With Impact episode with Elaine and Diane as they discuss how to address and manage risky behavior in ADHD kids. 12 Tips for Parenting a Complex Teen From the experts at ImpactParents (and the moms of 6 young adults!), we promise you this: it's not too late. In this FREE guide you'll learn 12 fool-proof tips to improve conversations and reconnect with your teens so you can guide them to become independent and successful. Parents all over the world have better relationships with their teens using these tools. You can, too! Here is what to expect on this week's show: The manifestation of risky behaviors in kids with ADHD Help manage risky behaviors and encourage good decisions Identifying the underlying causes, and addressing them Connect with Elaine and Diane www.impactparents.com Instagram @impactparents Facebook @impactparent LinkedIn @impactparents Twitter @impactparents Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
At the international climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, long-standing restrictions on protesters and dissidents are front and center. Thanks for listening to WIRED. Check back in tomorrow to hear more stories from WIRED.com.
Dr. Charles Fay and Aaron Huey review the essentials of Love and Logic and how it can provide a clear path of boundaries, consequences, and responsibility for ANY child. Dr. Fay is a parent, internationally recognized author, consultant and highly skilled public speaker. Millions of educators, mental health professionals, and parents world-wide have benefited from his practical and down-to-earth solutions to the most common and frustrating behaviors displayed by youth of all ages. These solutions come directly from years of research and clinical experience serving severely disturbed youth and their families in psychiatric hospitals, public and private schools, and homes. His interest in education and psychology were peaked as a child from years of exposure to some of our nation's most dynamic experts in these fields. This early exposure came as a result of participation in training events with his father, Jim Fay. Jim is one of the nation's leading experts on child discipline and has over fifty years of experience in public education. The internationally recognized Love and Logic approach was literally developed around Charles Fay as he grew. Now he jokes, “I think that's why I became a psychologist…just to figure out what they were doing to me as a kid. But…let me be clear…I absolutely adore my mom and dad as a result.” Dr. Fay currently works full time as an author, consultant, public speaker and CEO of the Love and Logic Institute. Because of his high-powered sense of humor and story-telling skills, audiences experience the most memorable and life changing form of learning: learning that's mentally connected to joy and real-life examples. www.loveandlogic.com
Welcome to the 101st Behind The Scenes episode! This week we spoke about sending risky voice notes, work wives and husbands and my friends are doing better than me. Make sure you tune in to hear more and as always, let us know your thoughts using #BTSPod on Twitter. Follow us on Twitter and Instagram @BTSPod_ and email us your dilemmas here: BTSPodcast00@gmail.com You can expect new episodes every Monday, brought to you by your Hosts: Beatrice, Instagram: @_Beaakins; Tammy, Instagram: @TammyMontero; and Sharon, Instagram: @Sharonodu_
I discovered Caroline's channel not too long ago because her channel has grown so quickly! In January of 2022, she had 3,000 subscribers. Now, she has nearly 300,000 subscribers! Caroline's channel is about interior design and she also mixes in a lot of vlogs. In this interview, Caroline was very candid in sharing her struggles with identity as a creator, and finding the balance between creating content that will serve your audience, but also will fulfill you as a creator. I loved getting to know Caroline and I know you will too! Click HERE to watch this interview on YouTube Full show notes at erikavieira.net ---------- Love the podcast? Got some feedback you want to share? Want to request your favorite YouTuber? Fill out the YTPH listener survey HERE
Whether fleeing cutthroats in a cat and mouse chase over the roofs of the Docks, or avoiding a full-scale war in the streets of the Mercers' Quarter, or trying to stop the society wedding of the decade, each of The Spider's three teams are on a desperate mission to thwart the Unseen's insidious plans. Links Transcript: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1w8m4cGHHVmuYYIz8-vbF3W3RN2C-fkRBlj5ZZm9bcnA/edit?usp=sharing All music is royalty-free, and courtesy of Pixabay: https://pixabay.com/music/ Twitter @TheLoneAdv Email TheLoneAdv@gmail.com Podbean https://theloneadventurer.podbean.com/ Blog https://carlillustration.wordpress.com/ Blades in the Dark: https://www.evilhat.com/home/blades-in-the-dark/ Alone in the Dark: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product/282013/Alone-in-the-Dark-Solo-Rules-for-Blades-in-the-Dark Solo Oracles: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1J_GVM_dVe3YMYAQaP-KIqOC91vFk56y9HOPKMybY_sk/edit?usp=sharing Faction clocks: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1KWuAPc4iv7hElXLepV0XTqVP9IRAdNsdqwD1wSDyAys/edit?usp=sharing Mechanics Team Crace PROGRESS CLOCK: Identify and infiltrate the Infernal Powder supply lines 0/10 RACING CLOCK Escape 0/6 Cornered 0/6 ACTION: Trace: Finesse: sprint along the rafter, Desperate, Limited 1d: 4 (success with consequence) 1XP CONSEQUENCE 1: 2 Stress CONSEQUENCE 2: Mark clock segment(s) RESIST (PROWESS 3d) 6,4,2: 0 Stress RACING CLOCK Escape 1/6 Cornered 1/6 ACTION: Crater: Wreck: lay down covering fire (item: ), Desperate, Standard, 2d: 1,5 (success with a consequence) 1 XP CONSEQUENCE: Suffer harm or damage RESIST (PROWESS 3d) 5,2,3: 1 Stress RACING CLOCK Escape 3/6 Cornered 1/6 ACTION: Trace: Hunt: pick off pursuer (fine long bow), Risky, Standard, 2d: 3,5 (success with a consequence CONSEQUENCE: End up with worse effect: -1 effect level RACING CLOCK Escape 4/6 Cornered 1/6 ACTION: Crater: Skirmish: push lead pursuer off the roof, Risky, Limited, 2d: 6,5 (success) RACING CLOCK Escape 5/6 Cornered 1/6 ACTION: Trace: Lead a Group: Prowl (evade pursuers), Risky, Standard, Trace: 1d: 4 Crater: 5 Success with Consequence: End up in a worse position: -1 position RACING CLOCK Escape 6/6: ESCAPED Cornered 1/6 COMPLEX Q: Why is the situation Desperate? 522, 634 (flying dove, bowl of fire) Peace goes up in flames PROGRESS CLOCK: Identify and infiltrate the Infernal Powder supply lines 2/10 Team Spilow PROGRESS CLOCK: Recover the Doctor and return with him to HQ 0/10 SCENE START ORACLE: Does the scene start as expected? (50/50) 5,1: Yes but But what? 432, 163 domino mask, mechanical clock Their mission is on the clock DANGER CLOCK: Discovery (0/6) ACTION: Sallow: Study: examine map for route, Risky, Standard, 1d+1d (Spider Assist, Foresight (no Stress)): 4, 2: Success with Consequence Clock segments DANGER CLOCK: Discovery (2/6) PROGRESS CLOCK: Recover the Doctor and return with him to HQ 2/10 ACTION: Sallow: Tinker: lay down smoke screen (Bandolier), Risky, Standard, 2d: 6,5 Success PROGRESS CLOCK: Recover the Doctor and return with him to HQ 4/10 SIMPLE Q: Is the shop still standing? (50/50) Yes, But COMPLEX Q: But what? 154, 662 Coffin, Starburst Explosion has killed many Team Valatters PROGRESS CLOCK: Stop the wedding and recover Mina 0/10 SCENE START ORACLE: Does the scene start as expected? (50/50) 6,6: Yes, and Tatters is clapped in irons ACTION: Valerian: Sway: Persuade Mina the Unseen are behind the wedding, Desperate, Limited, Push, Devil's Bargain: 4d: 4,1, 1, 3 Success with Consequence, 1XP Bargain: 8: Add 3 Heat Consequence: A new obstacle or threat appears COMPLEX Q: What is it?344, 415 Kneeling man, Anubis Flint has become the Weigher of Souls (machine oil). Spiked the wedding wine PROGRESS CLOCK: Stop the wedding and recover Mina 1/10
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How well do you know your teenager? Could your child be participating in risky or illegal activities right under your own roof? For more information: https://www.drphil.com/ Interested in advertising on the show? https://www.advertisecast.com/TheBestOfDrPhil Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: How Risky Is Trick-or-Treating?, published by jefftk on October 27, 2022 on LessWrong. content warning: discussion of child fatalities I've seen this chart going around: Sperling and Smith created it from NHTSA FARS data, and there have been lots of news stories about it or the underlying data. Some people have a "lets make costumes brighter" angle, some see this as ammunition in the fight against car-centric culture (which I support), some people want to move Halloween earlier in the day. But I think everyone is missing the point: Halloween is actually one of the safest days to be out walking as a kid. Let's look at the data. I started by replicating the chart to verify I was doing it correctly (code): The dip on February 29th is mostly just that this day only occurs once every four years, so it has about a quarter the deaths you'd expect. But what about the spike on 4/30? On April 30th 1992 someone drove their car into a large group of 3rd graders on a field trip, and one of them died. It turns out the FARS records can include cases where someone else died in the same accident. Filtering to just the records representing deaths I get: The data available actually goes back to 1982 and now runs to 2020, so we can expand it a bit: We can also break down by age, since "child" can mean a range of things and most people are likely thinking mostly about younger children: All this is to confirm the original chart: more children do die on Halloween than on a typical day. But I still don't think that's a reason to keep your kids home on Halloween, even when you set aside the consideration that Halloween is an especially fun time to be a child pedestrian. The issue is, there are a lot more kids out on Halloween than the typical day. If you learned that more people died in car crashes in the US (42k/y) than in Paraguay (1.6k/y) you wouldn't conclude that Paraguay's roads are safer: the US has 50x more people than Paraguay! We would ideally scale the initial chart by the number of children out walking on any given day, but I don't think anyone has numbers on this. Very roughly, though, maybe it's something like 5x as many people (kids, parents, grandparents) out on foot on Halloween than the typical day? Every pedestrian is rolling some dice. The dice are pretty favorable: of the ~70M people under age 18 in the US only 320 died in 2020 by being hit by a car. But you still might want to avoid days where the dice were less favorable than usual. Looking at the original chart you might conclude that Halloween was one of those days, but if there are a lot more kids walking around on Halloween it's actually one of the safer days. Comment via: facebook Thanks for listening. To help us out with The Nonlinear Library or to learn more, please visit nonlinear.org.
Included in this episode: 1. ‘Everything's at Stake': How the Midterms Will Shape Biden's 2024 Plans and his Legacy 2. Ukraine Wants to Use Russian Assets to Rebuild. Experts Think It's Risky 3. Column: What the West Should Do If Putin Uses a Nuclear Weapon 4. Michelle Obama, Melinda French Gates, and Amal Clooney Are Teaming Up to Support Young Women .
Tovares Grey is a social media Content Creator that focuses his work on Christianity and relationships. A U.S. Navy veteran, and bestselling author, Tovares started Godly Dating 101 almost 10 years ago as a single individual trying to learn how to date God's way and help others on that journey as well. Having seen many failed marriages and unhealthy connections that led people far away from Jesus, Tovares has a burden to share with this generation the benefits of honoring Christ in all of our decisions, especially those related to our relationships. In this interview today, Tovares and Sathiya discuss why Christians make dating so complicated, the truth about whether or not it's okay to date while you have a struggle with porn, and whether or not "the list" is a good idea. He also shares some of his own experiences and scriptural insights into what it looks like to date in a way that honors God and sets us up well for a healthy, long-lasting marriage. Listen to Godly Dating101 Podcast Follow @godlydating101 on Instagram Read GodlyDating101 book Get a FREE copy of my bestselling book, The Last Relapse Follow Sathiya on Instagram
John Cochrane is an economist, specializing in financial economics and macroeconomics, the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. Previously John was a Professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and before that at the Department of Economics. Josh is also an author of the Grumpy Economist blog. In this episode we talked about: John's Background in Economics Interest Rates & Inflation Modern monetary theory Milton Friedman Market outlook Fiscal policy Macroeconomic Environment Useful links: https://www.johnhcochrane.com/ https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/ Transcription: Jesse (0s): Welcome to the Working Capital Real Estate Podcast. My name's Jessica Galley, and on this show we discuss all things real estate with investors and experts in a variety of industries that impact real estate. Whether you're looking at your first investment or raising your first fund, join me and let's build that portfolio one square foot at a time. Ladies and gentlemen, you're listening to Working Capital, the Real Estate podcast. I'm talking with John Cochran today. John is an economist and the Rosemary and Jack Anderson, senior fellow at the Hoover Institute. He's a former professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and the Department of Economics, and the author of a great fantastic blog that you should check out The Grumpy Economist. John, how you doing today? John (45s): Good, thank you. Jesse (47s): So we talked a little bit before the show, John, you know, the podcast itself, the listeners that we talk a lot about the kind of environment that we play in as entrepreneurs and real estate investors and that being the economy. And you have a up a book that, you know, I heard on another podcast the Fiscal Theory of the Price level, which will put a, a link to and despite the title and to scare anybody off. Maybe you could give a kind of an overview of first of all, maybe your background in economics and, and kind of the work you do, and then we could chat a little bit, a little bit about the book. John (1m 22s): Great. Let's see. I'm, I'm economist and I've been thinking about money and inflation since 1982 and I've split my time between thinking about that and thinking about stocks and bonds. So money inflation, business cycle stocks and bonds and a whole bunch of other things. Being an economist is a wonderful thing because we, you can, you can jump from one thing to another and, and actually, you know, make real contributions in lots of places. The book is called The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level. If you Google me and find my website, you'll find the book. You will also, the book is full of equations and designed to convince my fellow economists that they need to come over to this. There are some essays on the same website, which I re recommend. You start with, fiscal histories are particularly like no equations and tries to tell a different story about where inflation came from and where it's going in the US over the last, in the postwar period. The basic idea is where does inflation come from? Not so much too much money chasing too few goods, but more importantly, too much overall government debt relative to what people think the government is willing and able to pay back. And if you're sitting on say, oh, 30 trillion of government debt and you think government is, is good for about 20 trillion of it, what you do is you try to get rid of that. It's terrible invest. What do you do with an overpriced investment? I think everybody understands this. What do you do with an overpriced house? You sell it. But if we all try to sell government debt, then the only thing we can do for it, it is, oh, buy houses. And we've been put upward pressure on the price of goods and services. So that ultimately is where inflation comes from. That doesn't mean the Fed doesn't have a big role to play, so I won't bother you the equations, but interest rate policy still is quite important in figuring out where inflation will go. But it isn't everything and when people are, are, don't fundamentally trust the government, there's really not that much the Fed can do about it. The Fed can kind of smooth it out for a while, but there's not that much. So I'll, I'll stop there and we can see how deep you want to go into theory or into explaining the real world or into real estate. Jesse (3m 34s): Yeah, I think what would be interesting is that from, you know, it wasn't too long ago, we were oh 7, 0 8, 0 9, it was a different environment from the financial crisis, but we had lower interest lowered interest rates to such a degree where people were starting to question the traditional, the traditional economic framework where we have interest rates at this low amount. We had quantitative easing, but we didn't seem to have any inflation. Maybe you could talk a little bit about, you know, what mechanisms were at play during that time and, and if there is a, you know, if there's a logical connection between that environment, you know, what past that and, and where we're at right now. John (4m 13s): Yeah, so I don't buy there, there's a lot of blah blah about how the Fed kept interest rates absurdly low over 10 years and so forth. Really the Fed is not that powerful. The Fed cannot keep real interest rates low for actually 20, 30 years that they have been very low by historical standards that has to come from the real economy. The Fed can move things around for a year or two, but in the end, very low interest rates come from real factors and interest rates were low, inflation was low. People were willing to hold the government's debt part that the fiscal situation in the US wasn't great, but there wasn't a lot of news about it. And I think at least not just 7, 8, 9, but also throughout the 2000 tens when interest rates remained low despite deficits. I think the people holding us treasuries say, Look, us is a great country and yes, the CBO reports are scary, but America will always do the right thing after we try everything else. As Winston Churchill, I guess did not say, but he should have said, and you know, that fixing the long run fiscal problem in the US is not that hard. We just have to sit around and decide we want to do it. So sooner or later we'll do it. I think the, the five, no, why are we having inflation now? The government in the pandemic printed up $5 trillion of new money, well, it printed up three and, and borrowed another two and sent people checks. And that's, that is just massive. And I, I think people are starting to question, is the government really good for it? And we're seeing that not just in the US and tumult the treasury market. We're seeing that in the uk. We may be starting to see that in Europe as well. Well, so I think that kind of explains the difference. Now, I'm, I'm telling stories, but at least there's plausible stories here. Jesse (6m 5s): So when it comes to the understanding that in the entrepreneurial space and real estate and the greater economy that we, we go through cycles, we go through time of growth, we go through time of contraction, Is this just an artifact of, of just the modern economy that we're gonna have ebbs and flows and we're gonna have times where, you know, the, the getting's good and, and then times when it's not so not so great. Or is the, is the chief goal the ultimate goal to have some sort of normality that plays out for a longer period of time? John (6m 36s): I think everyone's goal is normality that plays up for some period of time. And you're asking a deep question, which I won't answer, is how much of fluctuation, especially in, in real estate is, is natural to the economy? How much of it is a, you know, some pathology of the private economy that some government might be able to fix someday? And how much is induced by government policy? I would say for real estate investors batten down the hatches. We're on our way to a tough time. This one is pretty obviously induced by government policy and, and not just monetary policy and fiscal policy. You know, we, we saw certainly in 2007, 2008, how the regulatory environment encouraged booms and busts. And I think our current regulatory environment makes matters worse rather than makes matters better, you know, subsidizing the boom and then pulling everything back in the bust. But it's certainly where we're heading now is, I think ask your parents and grandparents about the 1970s. I think it's fairly clear we have a burst of inflation that that comes from somewhere. I think it comes from the, you know, the massively overdone stimulus, but take your pick where it comes from. You know, in the 1970s we had inflation that came from fiscal policy. Johnson wanted the Vietnam War and the Great Society, and then we had also oil price shocks. Ah, welcome to the 1970s. You know, get your flowered shirts and your bell-bottom jeans out cuz oil price shocks get things going. The fed is late to the game and then the fed slams on the brakes. Does that sound familiar? So I think it's fairly clear where we're going to go. Our fed has woken up and I think it's a, I can't really bet on where the economy's going, but I think, I'm pretty sure what the fed's gonna do. As long as inflation remains high, the Fed is gonna keep raising rates 75 basis points a shot. And so we will see how, what I don't know is if that will lower inflation, how long that will lower inflation, but the fed's gonna keep raising rates. I think it's fairly clear that is going to cause an economic slowdown, if not a recession. I mean they're, what they're trying to do is add just enough recession to offset the boom. You know, you're trying to land a plane, they call soft landing. You're trying to land a plane while the engines are gone full tilt, which ain't that easy. So they're trying to add enough and, and typically the fed fed adds more recession. So I, I think it's quite possible we head into recession, but the mechanism of what the fed's trying to do is raise interest rates. And that what does that hurt? That raising interest rates doesn't so much make you go out for burgers less often. And so often demand for restaurants raising interest rates is designed to to to lower interest sensitive spending. Okay. Unpack fed speak codes, that means you, Mr real estate, the design here is to raise interest rates, which lowers house prices, makes people less willing to sell houses, lower raises, mortgage rates makes it harder to buy houses. So, you know, the whole point is to try to soften down a real estate boom. Not made any better by our country's ridiculous zoning planning and other bureaucracy that I, so I live in Palo Alto where it's just infuriating Yeah. Where house prices have been driven very, very high. Not so much by too much demand, but by just the refusal of the government to allow usli. Jesse (9m 58s): So I was just speaking with you before the podcast. I was just coming back from San Diego. I live in Toronto and and Canada and, and I find that Ontario here is pretty similar in policy too. A lot of the California policies when it comes to real estate. I do wanna ask about a specific thing here on inflation, but before we do on that real estate, on the real estate topic, what we saw for the last few years was an extremely high, especially in our markets and the major markets in the states, an extremely high push on asset valuation, specifically in industrial and multi-res and low, low cap rates, which don't always follow interest rates, but you know, the spread is, is usually somewhat consistent. I guess the question here is we do have inflation now we have a business real estate where we do pass on inflation typically to our customers, ie. Renters. But what do you think that the, and I I take asset values not just in real estate, but the stock market in general. I think the question often people have is how do we have the valuations going one way from the asset perspective in, in, but inflation hitting people in a different way on the consumer level like the, the interplay there. John (11m 10s): Yeah, thank you. You put on my asset pricing hat. I mean one of the most fundamental things you have to understand with asset pricing is that when interest rates go up, values go down. When bond yields go up, bond prices go down. And so why are we seeing the stock market go down? Why are we seeing property values go down? You know, every asset, there's two things. There's the cash flow and there's the discount rate go, you know, back to school. Here we go. Why? Because if an alternative investment can get you a higher rate of return, then you know you're gonna pay less for, you know, this, this whatever investment we're talking about a house or a stock or whatever. In some sense that's good news for very long run investors. When you see all asset valuations, stocks, bonds, real estate going down at the same time, what you're seeing that that effect is just the required rate of return going up, but it means the underlying cash flows are the same as they were before. So unless you have to post margin Mr UK pension funds or you know, unless you're cash constrained in some sense, the long run investor can just wait it out. It means that those, you know, the dividends you'll get from your stocks haven't particularly gone down the, with the rents you'll get from your house or in fact going up and you know, you can have rising rents and lower property values. Well because the required rate of return goes up. So if you can just wait it out, those, those rents are there. Now also the, the rents are rising. You know, you, we have to put our inflation hat back on. If you are not, if something isn't going up 10%, it's going down. That goes for everything. Anything that's not, you know, if your rent, if your rent is only going up 10% a year, then it's just treading water, relative inflation. If your wages are not going up 10 per nine, 10%, they're going down. Hello, this is to my boss. So that, I think that's why it's possible both things they go opposite direction. Now, on top of that, we are I think heading into at least an economic slowdown, if not a recession. And that will bring, you know, pressure on, on the dividends and the cash flows, on the rents and so forth. And real estate is, I shouldn't be telling you about real estate, you know, way more than me, but location, location, location, yeah. So there's all sorts of low rents in, you know, Gary, Indiana or places downtown San Francisco. Places don't wanna be, people don't wanna be anymore. So it depends on being in the right place, which is where people still wanna be and where unfortunately you're on the wrong side of this, where governments don't let competitors build apartment houses to, to lower their ends on. Jesse (14m 2s): Yeah. And I think part of it, to me it seems it's the imperfect nature of especially real estate. You know, we can be as sophisticated as we want on the commercial side, but it, I think the stickiness of prices is, is just that very real aspect that the bid ask spread is still there. And owners don't want to admit that they're gonna have to write down to a certain extent these assets. No, John (14m 25s): I must, this is one from an economist point of view, this is one of the most classic puzzles of real estate. Why is it in soft markets people clinging to yesterday's price rather than, you know, why don't, why don't we have just auctions? You know, I'm gonna say yeah, people keep hoping for it to turn around on, on the downside. And so trading volume falls when the prices are going down. There must be something about, you know, not willing to recognize Mark to market losses or, Jesse (14m 53s): I I, yeah. I think it's part of the reason that so many investors I would take, take myself included, get into real estate, it's that I can't press a button and sell the thing. I think it's just the aspect that the the the cost, the, the selling costs is so great. But I I totally get what your, your point of view cuz we deal with in commercial real estate and we're supposed to be these sophisticated investors, pension funds, REITs and Yeah, I think that yeah, they just, they clinging to yester yesterday's or last year's price. I think that's, well John (15m 23s): I know some of them like university endowments. Yeah. Have a cynical view. Why do university endowments like Stanford's invest in a lot of real estate and not just Vanguard total market portfolio and save themselves in van, in Stanford's case, $800 million a year on fees. Well, not marking at the market every year is, is very convenient for not saying, Oh we lost 20% of your money last year on occasion. But I dunno, that's, that's a pet theory that may be false. Jesse (15m 51s): So, So John, there's a quote that I know you're, you're very familiar with and it's, i i I venture to guess it's somewhat of a misquote cause I don't think it takes the whole quote into account, but it's from Milton Freeman and it's that inflation is always an everywhere a monetary phenomenon. I think he was a little bit more specific, but that's usually the headline. What are your thoughts on that? Because I think you're, you're kind of proposing that fiscal seems to be an equation, part of the equation that, that the mon the mons have left out. John (16m 23s): Yep. I think Friedman was 90% right and he was maybe 99% right in 1935 and 1965 and, and less so today, most of the episodes that you look at, he was deeply historical in fact based, he wasn't a big lots of equations theorist, but most of the episodes he looked at were cases where governments were printing up money to finance deficits and therefore causing inflation. You, you know, why is Argentina, Venezuela, Zimbabwe having inflation? Not because their central bankers are too dumb to know what they're doing, but because they are, they they want to spend money and they can't tax it and they can't borrow it, so they print it. Now that is money in that case is just another form of government debt. So, you know, fiscal theory and monetary theory agree entirely. If the government is printing up money to finance a deficit, you get inflation. And that's, I think what we just saw. Now, the disagreement is, is much more subtle. Suppose the government drops 5 trillion bucks from helicopters, you feel great, you go out and spend it, you create inflation. But suppose at the same time they tell you, Oh by the way our burglars went to your safe and took 5 trillion of treasury bills out of the safe. Or more realistically, you know, they send you a stimulus check for 10,000 thousand bucks, but they also say, Oh by the way, your taxes are going up 10,000 bucks today. Now will that cause inflation? What I've just done is I've, I've wiped out the question of, of wealth, the feeling that this stuff is, is yours to spend and we've just changed it to you have too much money and too few bonds, so the composition of your portfolio is a little off. You have too many fives and tens and not enough twenties. Is that gonna make you go out and spend like crazy? Hmm, not so obvious. So in fact, the core monitor is prescription is that you can, all that matters is controlling the quantity of money. Don't worry about the quantity of bonds so that if you take in money and give out bonds or gi or take in a bonds and give out money, that's crucial for inflation. Whereas I think it's the overall quantity that that really matters. And, and you can see that's a much less obvious proposition. Jesse (18m 42s): So his, his prescription, I think, you know, I think generally was that from, from a policy standpoint was that we have some percentage, I don't something similar to a Taylor rule where we are going to raise, raise kind of rates at a consistent percentage each year. I think, I think if I remember there was a, a video or quote, he said, just get a computer and replace the Fed. You know, what, what was, what was the perspective there? What was his, his intent and and what other policy mechanisms do you think like writing this book that, that we have at our disposal or the fed does? John (19m 18s): Yeah, so to just, to, let me finish the last thought and and add to your question in Friedman was, was right, there's nothing logically wrong about what he said, but it's a world where money really matters. Where, where in Friedman's world you had to cash a check at a bank and get out cash on Friday if you wanted to eat dinner on a Saturday. So, so to let them use, there were no credit cards, there was no I iPhone and he was also thinking of a world where government, nobody worried about the US government paying back its debt. So if you look at the footnotes, it was always, oh by the way, you know, this only holds if everyone trusts the government to pay back its debt. So there's a very real sense in which, you know, he gave a logically coherent theory for a different world. And we live in a different world. We live in a world where, where we have credit cards, where the money that matters reserves, pays interests. And where we're a little bit worried about Gartner, Now let's back to your, let me now answer your question. Friedman advocated that the Fed should just let the stock of money grow at 4% a year and just, you know, get rid of the huge building and the press conferences and the 15,000 economists and others just let money grow at fourth percent. He did not argue that this was the best, a perfectly rational all seeing, you know, central planner could do. He just recognized that the Fed is run by humans and they're gonna get overenthusiastic and they're, they're, his analogy was, it's like a, a shower you'd turn on the hot and it would get too hot and turn on the cold and it would get too cold. Just leave it alone and it'll be okay because in his historical analysis, mo the Great Depression as well as many of the postwar sessions were caused by the Fed being too late to the party and then, you know, not just taking the punch bowl away, but, but you know, throwing ice on everybody or or whatever. Now in 19 eight, the problem first problem with that is in 1980 the Fed did try to just control the money supply and we found out it didn't work. So controlling the money supply it, it led to a lot of volatility and I think even Friedman recognized it. But John Taylor came along and said, well the Fed doesn't have to control the money supply. It could be much more predictable. It can set interest. That's what our fed does. Our fed sets interest rates. It doesn't even pretend to control the money supply because that doesn't, we discovered the real world is the head of theory, the real world discovered controlling the money supply doesn't work. And and theory is just now with, with my book and some others catching up. So John Taylor has, has this approach, well, okay, the Fed setting interest rates, but rather than sit around a table and, and burn the incense and wave the dead chickens and, and consult the astrologers and figure out what to do, Freedman was right. Being more predictable, not not just figuring out on a base would be much better for markets for everybody because as you know, as, as everyone is everybody's guess, all the volatility in the economy is guessing what the Fed is gonna do. This is a deep point, you know, what is the financial press about all the time? Is it about how many, you know, the zoning sanity comes to the zoning council of Palo Alto or is it about people moving to, to Toronto is gonna drive no drive housing prices, It's all about what's the Fed gonna do, what's the Fed gonna do, what's the Fed gonna do? So you can tell right there that the Fed by making off the cuff decisions, is in, in in, is putting volatility in the economy. So Taylor came up with this Taylor rule raised interest rates systematically with inflation, which was designed to work like the money growth rule to make it very clear and transparent to stop us guessing all the time about what the Fed is going do. It, it isn't, Taylor does not claim it's perfect. He doesn't claim that that the god that the Fed thinks it is couldn't do better. The all-knowing, all seeing perfectly rational economic planner of course could do better. He just recognizes the fed's human, it's a bureaucratic institution. It's, it's liable to group think it's gonna be late. And that expectations matter so much. Being clear and transparent about what you're gonna do is, is better than the current, just make it up as you go along. So there's your, Sorry, you asked a question for a history of monetary economics and you got it. Jesse (23m 49s): So there is no homo economists out there at the Fed. John (23m 54s): Homo Bureaucratics is the best we can hope for and you know, we all criticize the Fed. I I I criticize the Fed and I think too harshly cuz I know most of the people at the Fed and, and let's just be clear, these are really good people, these are really smart people. The 1500 PhD economists, I think that's the number that they, as well as the ones at the Bank of Canada are really good, really smart people. There's no corruption here, but they didn't see the biggest inflation of, of your lifetime coming. So they've got a whole, you know, staff of their, their mandate is inflation. They have a huge staff of economists, the best people in the world at it. They just couldn't see it coming. There are limits to what bureaucracy can do. So simple and transparent has some advantage. Not cuz people are bad or corrupt, it's just, you know, the best bureaucracy in the world can't, you know, we, we saw the Soviet Union fall apart for just that reason. Planning don't work. Jesse (24m 54s): So I had a podcast, I think about a year ago now, two podcasts. One was a, the name is escaping me, but it was a professor from George Mason on the one hand. And on the other hand it was a bond trainer. A bond trader locally here. And we were talking about modern monetary theory and you know, for listeners, you know, look it up. I I hate to, I hate to do that, to have a huge explainer. But basically what I, you know, you can just tell by the nature of those two conversations or maybe not one was very, very much in favor of it, one was questioning its existence just high level. Maybe you could, you could kind of get your view on what mon modern monetary theory ex expounds or tries to expound and, and has this last year or last two years, has that, has that been the nail in the coffin for them or has that been, has that bolstered their theory? How do you think that has played into what we've seen now as two second, you know, blurbs in the news that was this really to, from my perspective as a layperson, kind of a fad of economics for, for a while? John (25m 60s): Yes, it was. If, if your listeners are interested, I wrote a review of Stephanie Kelton's book in the Wall Street Journal, which you can find either there or on my website, which goes into much more detail, modern monetary theory. What was a fad? And one way of noticing it's a fad is that they wrote popular books, Three quarters of Stephanie Kelton's book is about the wonderful ways the government can spend printed money and how desperately important it is to spend the money. Not, not so much why printing it won't cause inflation. And it was a bunch of sort of, it's interesting, you look at the citations, they stop in the 1940s there was some ideas warmed over from the 1940s with zero contact with anything anybody has done since now maybe everything we've done since 1945 and economics has been wrong. You know, fields and the social sciences go off on fads before I think Kasey and economics was, was one big mistake too. But at least you have to, you know, if you wanna persuade people, you have to at least show that you know what they said and and why it's wrong. And it did. It was superficially plausible. It, it, there were some ingredients you can take some good ingredients and, and, and just, just cuz the soup is rotten doesn't mean every ingredient was rotten. So they had one insight that, yeah, governments, they, one of their things was governments that borrow in their own currency don't have to default cuz they can just print up money to pay back the debt. Yeah, that's right. And if that causes inflation, they can just raise taxes to so soak up the money. Yeah, that's right. But they took that and and merged those with a whole bunch of things, you know, then the rotten parts of the soup go in to make, make the claim. I think Kelton said there always is slack in the US economy. Now that's a quote. And the present tense of the verb is also a quote. And we just found out the end of slack in the US and Canadian economy. So we're done. There is not always slack in the US economy if you print up a lot of money and send it to people as Kelton, as Kelton asked, all the modern monitors said, print out money sent to people. Don't worry, there won't be any inflation. It's the clearest prediction you can ask anyone to make. They made it, boom, we printed up money, sent it to people and what do we get? Inflation. So I, I hope that one goes on, on the dust bin of history, but it was never serious. And certainly you should look in, in today's media world, you have to learn to be an educated consumer and, and one way in which you're an educated consumer is to look at a theory and ask now of, you know, the theories that are, that are accepted by the mainstream are typically wrong and academia's full of all sorts of politically convenient theories. But, you know, if it's completely out of the mainstream, you know, that does raise an alarm bell that you should, you should ask. And this one was, was one such. And, and if it's also, if you can see that it's all totally motivated by a political agenda, then that should also raise some alarm bells. Jesse (29m 2s): So I have one of my favorite books here by Joseph Schumpeter recommend anybody that's never heard of Joseph Schumpeter, check out his work. I think, you know, you'll hear terms like creative destruction. One of his favorite quotes just on your point of, of politicians, I I always like was politicians are like bad horsemen who are so preoccupied with staying in the saddle that they can't bother to figure out where they're going. And you know, it's unfortunate that a lot of the, the policies that you know, that we're trying to get at here are, I guess, you know, tied up in, in the political process John (29m 36s): If I could just, so it's fun to make fun of monitors, but I think we need need to recognize what a watershed moment inflation is for much more serious and well worked out economic ideas for 10 years. All of the worthies of economic policy, all of the government agencies, all the alphabet soup of international agencies, were talking about secular stagnation. That we just have lack of demand, that we need more fiscal stimulus. That the key to prosperity is to borrow or print money and hand it out. You know, don't worry about the supply side of the economy whatsoever. Even Janet yell herself that our congressional testimony was asked about, Oh, should we run another one point whatever, $6 billion of government spending? And she said, don't worry about it. Interest costs are so low, interest rates are so low, you know, you can make the payments. I think what, you know, one of the, one of the greatest fallacies of real estate, let's get back to real estate, is don't worry, you know, as you look at the monthly payment, here's the big McMansion, Oh, but I don't have a job, don't worry about it. Get this adjustable rate mortgage with the teaser. Look at the monthly payments you can afford. The monthly payments. Well Janet Yellen went up and said, we can afford the monthly payments. Don't, don't worry about going big. That has hit a brick wall of reality with inflation. And, and here these are all of the, you know, Larry Summers for example, who to his great credits saw the inflation coming before anyone else. But he had spent 10 years saying secular stagnation, our problem is lack of demand borrow. And, and we, it turns out that supply wall boom was a lot closer than we thought it was about like, you know, we, we were 1% away from the supply wall in the beginning. It wasn't 10, 20, 30% away. So this just, this is a watershed, a bunch of ideas by very respectable people were totally wrong. And our economic challenge now is much harder. It's get the sand out of the gears. Increasing supply is not about throwing money on it, it's not about sending people checks. It's about fixing the zoning code. And can you rehab a commercial building in Manhattan to be apartments? No, because the zoning doesn't let you have bedrooms on the interior. It's a great man and glaz parts, you know, you have to fix every single thing that's wrong in the economy. That is totally different. But that's where we are. So this is a big, big moment. Jesse (32m 1s): Yeah. And even on the, the cane side of, you know, I don't the context of it, but the, the idea that markets can, markets can stay irrational longer than than they, than you can stay solvent. I think from the real estate perspective was just this idea where you saw very sophisticated investors buying prices at asset values where it just made no sense. There was negative leverage in some situations and just this idea that, that you there would just continue to be a hockey stick graph, especially here in, in this city and certainly in other ci major major markets in the states. John (32m 33s): Well a fact of all such booms is you gotta ride the bubble while you can and you, you can make a lot of money buying, flipping, hoping to gut it doesn't crash before you can sell the darn thing. And that can go on for years and years. And if you just sit that out, if you say, oh, you know, properties overvalued stocks are valued, well, you know, three, four years go by and all your buddies are getting rich and you're sitting there, you know, if you go short losing money on your short positions, if you just sit it out, you know, playing golf while they're all getting rich through it's stuff to do. Especially if you are, you know, working on someone else's behalf. Jesse (33m 10s): So John, I just wanna be mindful of the time here. I do, I do have a question in chapter four in your book you talk about debt, government debt. And I wanted to kind of go a little bit more granular. I don't know the figures for the states offhand, but I know that Canadian household debt is, is debt to disposable income is is quite high. I believe it's 1.84 for every dollar, you know, Canadians have in consumer debt. What's your take on on that micro-economic aspect of, of the family debt within the family and then that impact into kind of this grander, you know, macroeconomic environment that we're in? Is it something that you look at? John (33m 50s): Well, I can offer some sort of general, So there's government debt which has to get paid back by raising taxes, but not raising tax is really by economic growth. Your only hope for the government paying back its debts is if they let the economy grow. Cause if, if you raise tax rates, that kills the economy. So you kill the tax base, you don't, you don't get a lot of taxes. Now private debt is a different matter. Let's remember, you know, your, your mortgage is is my pension. So everyone's liability is someone else's asset. And it's funny how, you know, all of our economic policy, blah, blah, we simultaneously love and bemoan the same thing on the one hand, oh, you know, too much debt people can't pay back. On the other hand, not enough debt. Send more debt to my constituents so they can buy houses, which is it, you know, we want, government wants us to consume more, but it also wants us to save more and to pay more taxes. How's that happening? And, and you know, a lot financialization is great economies grow because entrepreneurs can borrow to finance new businesses because real estate developers can borrow to build apartments for the rest of us, they're doing us. I don't know why they're so maligned. They do us a wonderful service. You wanna build your house on your own. How about somebody who knows what they're doing, do it, but they need to be able to borrow to do it. So debt that can be paid off is not so much a problem. Now problem comes in when debt can't be paid off, but risk in return. Guys, I think we need to get back to an economy where risk, we all understand if you buy Tesla stock and, and it turns out that hydrogen and and not batteries is the way of the future, or China shuts off the supply of batteries, you know you're gonna lose your, your money or you know, GM turns out to know what they're doing, you're gonna lose your, we all understand equity holders losing your money. Now somehow, if you buy something called debt and, and you're getting a 5% return where everyone else is getting a 2% return, you're not supposed to lose money every now and then. So, you know, even debt is a great thing. Risky debt's a wonderful thing, you know, but cafe at em Thor, we need to understand as society that, that making risky loans is a great and wonderful thing, but you're gonna lose money every now and then and don't go crying to grandma government every time you lose your money. Now, you know, debt is, why do we worry about too much that we worry about if it turns into financial crisis? And that's, you know, that's a problem. That's what the Nobel Prize just gave was given to Diamond and Member Yankee and felt that big about. Is that, Jesse (36m 27s): Which I believe you, you just read or wrote a blog about, right? Yeah, John (36m 31s): I just wrote a blog post about it, which is, you know, there's, we, we as a society need to get around, stop having financial crisis. Now that means the debt must be able to lose money when the, when it defaults in a way that isn't so incredibly painful for the society as a whole. And that I think is a failure of government regulation. We, you know, why do we regulate banks? Let's look at a bank's asset portfolios, the bank's asset and compare it to, I don't know, Tesla now, whose assets are more risky, whose cash flows are more risky, a bank or Teslas, you know, by, by three orders of magnitude. Tesla Bank is, has a, has a portfolio of government guaranteed loans. I mean possibly, you know, yet where are all the regulators? The regulators are all looking at the bank. Now why is that answer? Because banks are leveraged up to the hilt and if they lose enough money to go under, they're, they're kind of big monopolies and, and they, our economy loses the capacity to, to make new debt. So why is that? We need to get the leverage out of the banks. And then you get to a financial system where people can default on debts and it doesn't bring the whole thing crashing down. So debt's good, default is good, let it happen. Default is reorganization. We just need to not, you know, we kinda have a hostage here. The banks have taken the whole economy and and holding it hostage saying, you know, you government can't let anyone fail or else, and, and it's our political and even the Fed a financial crisis is not the possibility that somebody somewhere might lose money someday on some investment. No, you know, risk and return. Entrepreneurial capitalism lose money. Financial crisis is when, when, when there's a run on short-term debt and that brings down the banking system. We, we can fix that. Jesse (38m 26s): It's, you remind me of a, i we'll put a link to it. A really good, I dunno if it was an essay, but it was years ago, Thomas so wrote comparing the American Depression and the branch banking system that we have in Canada. Cuz you know, oftentimes people think Canadians, that we have these five large banks, which we do, or four depending on who you're asking. But we have an extensive branching system. And it was a, it's was interesting to see the difference of branching where it wasn't allowed in states during that time, I guess right after the depression. But we'll put a link for anybody that's, that's interested. Now John (39m 1s): This is great important and, and I, you know, I wanna say something. So something nice about Canada, Ben, this is what Ben Bernanke got the Nobel Prize for, he said in the US and the Great Depression. Why was the Great Depression so bad? Well, cause all the banks failed. Now why did the banks and then once the banks failed, not all the banks, sorry, I'm exaggerating. Many banks failed in many places. And when the banks failed, they closed down. And the people in those banks who knew in, you know, Lincoln, Nebraska, who was good for it and who wasn't, who knew how to make loans, they were unemployed. Why did that not happen in Canada? Well, because, because there are many ways to stop a bank run. And one of them is if a local bank fails, somebody else can come in, a large national bank can come in and buy up the assets, keep the people who know how to make loans employed, you know, stiff the creditors, stiff the stockholders, but keep the operations going. But that needs, the US had had prohibitions on on branches, It had prohibitions on interstate banking. There was no way all the mechanisms of saving a bank and keeping the profitable parts going didn't exist. And they did exist in Canada, which is why your Great Depression was a whole lot better than ours. Now that doesn't mean the only answer to this is to have a monopolized banking system with four big banks. That, that kept Canada out of a crisis in the Great Depression, but that also leads to a certain amount of financial sclerosis. And so I, I don't want to endorse crony capitalism as the only answer, but it did, it did work better in that circumstance, Jesse (40m 35s): Economics, real estate and Canadian banking history. John, I think we covered it all today. John (40m 40s): Thank you. It's a great pleasure. Jesse (40m 42s): John, for individuals that that want to connect or reach out, where can we send them? We'll put a couple links in the show notes. John (40m 50s): My website, john h cochran.com and my blog, The Grumpy Economist. And if you just Google John Cochran, I come up first. Jesse (40m 60s): This is Working Capital. John, thanks for being a part of it. John (41m 4s): Thanks. Great pleasure. Jesse (41m 11s): Thank you so much for listening to Working Capital, the Real Estate podcast. I'm your host, Jesse for Galley. If you like the episode, head on to iTunes and leave us a five star review and share on social media. It really helps us out. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on Instagram. Jesse for galley, F R A G A L E. Have a good one. Take care.
Want the freedom of investing virtually, with the confidence of knowing you can still close the deal? Lauren will tell you how she's been doing it for the past 10 years. She's a single mom with hundreds of flips under her belt and has coached over 350 students on how to do the same. We're covering tips & tricks for how to invest virtually with less stress, how to find buyers, AND why you might want to consider being your own general contractor on your next flip. Listen in!It's Deal Closers month at Carrot! Carrot.com/closeThoughts? Email me at firstname.lastname@example.orgMentioned in this episode:www.freecourseonwholesaling.comLauren on LinkedIn: in/lauren-hardyLauren on Facebook: /thismomflipsLauren on Instagram: @thismomflipsLauren on YouTube: /thismomflips
People who feel more connected show lower levels of anxiety, depression, and a greater empathy for themselves, their community, and other people. That's where Listeners on Call can empower its audience. Listen to Dr. Jada Jackson talk about how to stay connected even during your busiest season. Listeners on Call offers telephonic support through conversation that can facilitate healthier lifestyles and elevate your wellbeing. We all want healthy relationships, and Listeners on Call facilitates that through impactful connections with people. MORE ABOUT OUR GUESTS:Dr. Jada Jackson HillVice President, Listeners On CallListenersOnCall.com Dr. Jada Jackson Hill is a licensed mental health counselor and serves as the Vice President of Well-Being at Listeners On Call. Jackson Hill supports the Listeners On Call Care Team by advising on current mental health issues and concerns, while promoting healthy and relevant conversations around mental well-being and support. Additionally, Dr. Jackson Hill, Ed.D, LMHC, LPC, is the President of Total Life Counseling Center in Dallas, an author, leadership trainer, Listener curriculum writer and a resource on topics ranging from mental health to professional development. Dr. Jackson Hill has a passion for supporting others as they navigate their journey towards mental well-being.
What are we trusting in to give us value and measure our identity? Jesus longs for us to place our identity more and more in Him, in His love for us, and how He sees us, rather than in how the world measures us.For prayer, giving, and to stay connected, please visit cccgreeley.orgDiscussion Guide for this message: https://tinyurl.com/yck65pweChrist Community Church – Greeley, CO
We've been talking about how gracious our God is, and how salvation is an absolutely free gift received by faith in Jesus alone. But now it's time to turn our attention to another one of God's attributes... His justice. Join us as Pastor Bryan breaks down a passage in Galatians 6, and introduces us to a principle as certain as the law of gravity... the law of sowing and reaping.
On this episode Manifest founder and CEO Alex Myers and Senior Account Manager Kim Lewis speaks to Bec Park of Jonny Condoms about safe sex and risky business. Locked in and love locked up - vegan and PEFC-certified Aussie condom brand, Jonny, excelled during the pandemic and is now moving onto bigger markets, having its sights set on the world. Not only does the brand promote safe sex, for everyone, but is a leading advocate in consent, as well as sustainability - every Jonny condom is paired with a biodegradable bag to promote mess-free, conscious disposal. Listen to how this intimacy-focused brand thrived in a world of distance and isolation. Go Jonny, Go Go.
Snake Oilers isn't our regular weekly podcast, it's a wholly sponsored series we do at Risky.Biz where vendors come on to the show to pitch their products to you, the Risky Business listener. To be clear – everyone you hear in one of these editions, paid to be here. We'll hear from three vendors in this edition of Snake Oilers: Truffle Security talks secrets discovery KSOC builds Kubernetes security tools Snyk has a new product to better secure Infrastructure as Code Show notes Unearth Your Secrets - Truffle Security KSOC: Kubernetes Security Operations Center Cloud Security across the SDLC with Policy as Code | Snyk
Now they have an insight into their enemies' plans, the Web lay plans of their own; three separate plans, to be exact, each intended to thwart some aspect of the forces arrayed against them. But there's a very real difference between planning a thing and doing a thing, as The Spider and her three teams are about to find out… Links Transcript: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1OlkCPiQVuEvfKAsy7yAVNPGAlx4EqgrY-XtCXiycIeg/edit?usp=sharing All music is royalty-free, and courtesy of Pixabay: https://pixabay.com/music/ Twitter @TheLoneAdv Email TheLoneAdv@gmail.com Podbean https://theloneadventurer.podbean.com/ Blog https://carlillustration.wordpress.com/ Blades in the Dark: https://www.evilhat.com/home/blades-in-the-dark/ Alone in the Dark: https://www.drivethrurpg.com/product/282013/Alone-in-the-Dark-Solo-Rules-for-Blades-in-the-Dark Solo Oracles: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1J_GVM_dVe3YMYAQaP-KIqOC91vFk56y9HOPKMybY_sk/edit?usp=sharing Faction clocks: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1KWuAPc4iv7hElXLepV0XTqVP9IRAdNsdqwD1wSDyAys/edit?usp=sharing Mechanics SIMPLE Q: Did the Mustang hit the city? 50/50 5,1 Yes, But Systems partially restored, minimal impact, just property damage. Where did it hit? 10 Mercers' Quarter GATHER INFORMATION: Trace Hunt: Armada location, Risky, high (Scout ability): 2d+1d (Sallow Assist, 1 Stress): 3,5,6 Success COMPLEX Q: Where is the armada being assembled? 113, 323 (cartwheel, natural crystal) In the Crystal Caves, below the continent of Conflict ENGAGEMENT ROLL Shadow Team: Trace, Crater The Plan: Stealth The Detail: Identify and infiltrate the Infernal Powder supply lines Loadouts: all Medium Engagement Roll: 1D Luck: +1D High Tier target: -1D Second Storey: +1D Result: Bad Result (desperate) COMPLEX Q: What is the nature of the threat? 345, 123 (eye spy, flayed skin) Unseen, involved in identity theft SIMPLE Q: Are there barrels here? (Likely) 3,1,2: No because Warehouse is empty (stock just moved) UNE NPC: Female tactless gypsy. Motivations: accompany advice, guard discretion, support the world. SIMPLE Q: are they spotted? (Likely): Yes Simple Q: are there lookouts? (Likely) Yes, but They are outside ENGAGEMENT ROLL Team Deliverance: The Spider, Sallow The Plan: Transport The Detail: Recover the Doctor and return with him to HQ Loadouts: all Heavy Engagement Roll: 1D Luck: +1D Result: Mixed Result (Risky) COMPLEX Q: What is the nature of the challenge? 563, 253 (winged spike, crossed sabres) The Crows are fighting a battle in the ruins of the Mercer's Quarter/ Mustang SIMPLE Q: vs Undying/ Silver Nails? Likely: 4,1,1 Yes, but They are not the only ones Team Crasher Engagement Roll: ENGAGEMENT ROLL Team Crasher: Valerian, Tatters The Plan: Transport The Detail: Teleport in, grab Mina, teleport out Loadouts: all Medium Engagement Roll: 1D Luck: +1D Bold & Daring: +1D Strong defences: -1D Aid (Setarra): +1D High Bad Result (desperate) SIMPLE Q: Does Setarra double cross her? (Likely) 5,1,1 (Yes But) Temporarily “I didn't say when”
Season 15, Episode 18: Weekly Roundup Yorion, Sky Nomad is the latest addition to Modern's endless ranks of the banned. There are now 48 cards in Modern jail, some of which have been there since the beginning. Today on Faithless Brewing, the crew takes a hard look at the Modern ban list to see whether it stands up to scrutiny in the post-MH2 era. With so much power creep, many cards could likely be released back into the format safely, joining the ranks of successful unbans like Sword of the Meek, Valakut, Wild Nacatl, and Jace, the Mind Sculptor. Broadly speaking, the banned cards fall into six categories. Category 1: Gone forever. These are the best of the best, the most broken of the broko. They should be locked away until the end of time. (Example: Hogaak, Oko, Dark Depths). Category 2: Banished for reasons other than power level. These cards are problematic for reasons other than win rate, and are therefore also gone forever. (Ex: Sensei's Divining Top, Second Sunrise, KCI). Category 3: Safe, but no upside. Some cards only support a single deck or combo. Even if those combos are not overpowered (and in fact some are likely quite weak), their existence would be a net negative on the format. There is no upside to ever unbanning these cards. (Ex: Blazing Shoal, Hypergenesis, Splinter Twin) Category 4: Risky and probably not okay. These cards used to be too powerful. Today, they'd fall in the gray area. If you want to live dangerously, you could unban them, but they are likely still too strong. (Ex: Mystic Sanctuary, Eye of Ugin, Glimpse of Nature) Category 5: Risky but probably okay. These are powerful cards that would impact the meta. The resulting decks would likely be fine, but would need to be watched carefully. (Ex: Faithless Looting, Birthing Pod, Seething Song) Category 6: Should be unbanned today. These cards are completely safe to unban, and Wizards should do so as soon as possible. (Ex: Preordain, Bridge from Below, artifact lands). Cavedan and Morde don't see eye to eye on everything, but they broadly agree that the current ban list is outdated and too conservative. Which cards are the most controversial, and which ones did we get right and wrong? Listen to the full episode to find out! Like our content? Support us on Patreon and join our brewing community! Decklists for this episode can be viewed at FaithlessBrewing.com Decklists and Timestamps [1:01] Eulogy for a Sky Noodle [4:42] Housekeeping [6:56] Dissecting the Yorion ban [13:18] Where does Modern go next? [20:44] Brewing after Yorion: Morde's journey begins [30:16] The state of the Modern ban list: Oct 2022 [36:35] Category 1: Gone forever [40:47] Category 2: Banished for reasons other than power level [42:29] Category 3: Safe, but no upside [46:24] Category 4: Risky and probably not okay [51:43] Category 5: Risky but probably okay [56:42] Category 6: Should be unbanned today [1:11:18] A modest proposal ----more----
Did you know that 50% of buyers like speaking on the phone before making a buying decision? And this percentage goes up the higher up the business hierarchy you go. Sales calls are an essential part of growing a profitable business. This week, episode 10 of Selling for Yourself: a guide for non-sales people Podcast is about avoiding risky sales call pitfalls today! Access the Zero to Sales in 10 Minutes a Day free sales training. You'll learn how to get on the phone with 5 qualified prospects this week. In this episode of The Selling for Yourself Podcast, I'm sharing the importance of having conversations with prospective clients, even if it's not an actual sales call. I also give you actionable steps you can take right now to avoid the worst part about getting on sales calls. Some of the talking points I go over in this episode include the following:What to do during a discovery call to get valid market research.Structuring your conversations to ensure you make the most of their time and your own.How to be inquisitive during the sales call to turn that conversation into something in the future.Thank you for listening! Be sure to tune in to all the episodes to receive tons of practical tips on selling for yourself and to hear even more about the points outlined above. If you enjoyed this episode, take a screenshot of the episode to post in your stories and tag me! And don't forget to follow, rate, and review the podcast and tell me your key takeaways!CONNECT WITH RENEE HRIBAR:Ask your sales questionsFacebookLinkedInLearn more about selling for yourself
Often, not until we step out in faith, to do something where there is no more of our usual security/comforts, do we truly know God -- and his true power!
So all this talk about salvation being by grace alone through faith alone in Christ alone... it sounds too easy, right? I mean, doesn't that mean people could take advantage of God's grace? Have you ever wondered: "Can a person put their faith in Jesus, get their 'fire insurance,' and then live however they feel like on this earth, and still go to heaven?" Join us as Pastor Bryan addresses the question: "Is Grace Risky?" The answer may surprise you!
E-commerce offers many unique retail opportunities - not the least of which is being location independent. You can, at least in theory, sell to customers anywhere in the world.However as the e-commerce market becomes increasingly competitive, even power brands are having to devote more resources to drive growth.That leaves small to medium sized brands increasingly frustrated as they struggle to increase sales - and more importantly - to make a profit.Today Lesley Hensell, co-founder of Riverbend Consulting, a small business e-commerce consultant with over two decades helping companies solve issues in their online retail businesses, joins us on A Seat at The Table. Lesley has personally helped hundreds of third-party sellers get their suspended Amazon accounts and ASINs back up and running, learn which KPI's actually matter, and how to improve their operations and profitability.In this episode she discusses- Strategies small to medium sized sellers can implement to compete with even giant players.- Key mistakes she sees companies make when they get started in e-commcerce.- How sellers can minimise risk - while also growing their revenue.… and a lot more.USEFUL LINKSRiverbend Consuting's website: https://riverbendconsulting.comConnect with Lesley Hensell: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lesleyhensell/Learn about The Current Situation in Sourcing: https://thecurrentsituation.netVisit A Seat at The Table's website at https://seat.fm
Snake Oilers isn't our regular weekly podcast, it's a wholly sponsored series we do at Risky.Biz where vendors come on to the show to pitch their products to you, the Risky Business listener. To be clear – everyone you hear in one of these editions, paid to be here. We'll hear from three vendors in this edition of Snake Oilers: Tines, the no code security automation solution that people are going absolutely nuts over Code42, the insider threat detection solution maker Kroll talks about its MDR offering
Dave Rubin of “The Rubin Report” talks about Tulsi Gabbard's announcement that she is leaving the Democratic Party; J.D. Vance destroying Tim Ryan's misrepresentation of his beliefs on limits on abortion; Blake Masters torching his opponent for his support of the Inflation Reduction Act and the hiring of 87,000 new IRS agents, while ignoring the crisis at the southern border; Kari Lake pointing out how radical Democrat policies have gotten; Democrats like Katie Hobbs, Stacey Abrams, John Fetterman, and Mandela Barnes all refusing to say if there should be any limits on abortion; Jen Psaki admitting that Democrat crime policies and a crime surge are leading most voters to view the Democrats as soft on crime; CNN's Dana Bash comparing the current economic malaise and problems with inflation to Jimmy Carter; Jake Tapper getting shocked when guests Nina Turner and Bakari Sellers inform him that black voters are not very excited for the Democratic party; ESPN's Stephen A Smith telling Fox News' Jesse Waters that Democrats are ignoring the crime problem; how even SNL's Weekend Update has begun to mock Joe Biden; and Bill Maher and Dave showing how to bridge the political divide. ---------- Today's Sponsors: Cozy Earth - Give yourself the gift that will be appreciated every single night - Cozy Earth bedding and loungewear. Sleep comfortably year-round. GET 35% off! Go to: https://cozyearth.com/DAVE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Another Guilty Pleasure? A Chicago teenager is looking for fun at home while his parents are away, but the situation quickly gets out of hand.And by out of hand I mean opening up a teenage brothel! Yeah thats right, this movie defo has some problems looking back at it but hey...Tom Cruise!! Directed Paul Brickman; Starring Tom Cruise; Rebecca De Mornay; Joe Pantoliano; Support the show on Patreon https://www.patreon.com/user?u=48337700 Follow us on Spotify (Link is in our Bio) https://open.spotify.com/show/7KtjnknNEcqsruuKg6heXs?si=P_1l0MFaQE-sIAjsLw-DHg Follow us on Twitter https://twitter.com/adamandcraig Follow us on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/Adam-Craigs-Guilty-Pleasure-Cinema-111932353863671/ #podcast #podcasts #podcasting #podcaster #podcastlife #podcastersofinstagram #podcasters #podcastshow #applepodcasts #newpodcast #podcastlove #podcastaddict #applepodcast #podcastinglife #podcasthost #comedypodcast #spotifypodcast #googlepodcasts #itunespodcast #podcastnetwork #podcastjunkie #horrorpodcast #podcastsofinstagram #film #movies #netflix #amazonmovies #adamandcraig 18NYnuFGiQwK954XcwhT --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/guiltypleasurecinema/support
This sermon shows us that when we pursue God, it changes how we approach others. Central Baptist Church is located in Maysville, Kentucky, where we keep Christ central. To learn more about Central Baptist Church, please visit our website at https://cbcmaysville.com. WEB: https://cbcmaysville.com FACEBOOK: https://www.facebook.com/cbcmaysville/ INSTAGRAM: https://www.instagram.com/cbcmaysville/ TWITTER: https://www.twitter.com/cbcmaysville/ SUPPORT US: Give Online: https://cbcmaysville.com/give Address: 437 Central Ave Maysville, KY 41056
The AMD Inc. (AMD) stock price today hit a new low and dragged other semiconductors down along with it. "The stock market, bond market, and cryptocurrencies remain red on the Risk Radar, but the U.S. Dollar is green. The way that good economic data is impacting the markets is troubling. A natural recovery from the pandemic is at odds with the Federal Reserve trying to poke holes in it," says Oliver Renick.
In this short Christian sermon, you will be challenged to keep the big picture of the Kingdom in mind in having risky associations. You can buy my new bestselling book, UNVEIL YOUR PURPOSE (a #1 Newly Released Bestseller on Amazon) here: India: https://www.amazon.in/UNVEIL-YOUR-PURPOSE-John-Giftah/dp/B08K2CJKP2/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=john+giftah&qid=1611990618&sr=8-1 Global Amazon.com: https://www.amazon.com/Unveil-Your-Purpose-Complete-Created-ebook/dp/B08L7XX9PJ/ref=sr_1_2?dchild=1&keywords=john+giftah%27&qid=1611990705&sr=8-2 You can stay in touch with me through these platforms: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/johngiftah Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/johngiftah Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/sjohngiftah/ Website: https://www.johngiftah.com/ If you're blessed by this sermon, don't forget to share it with someone, and please do rate/ review the podcast so that it will help us reach more people with the message of hope. For supporting the ministry financially: PayPal: paypal.me/johngiftah Link to The Inspiration Hub Podcast: Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/in/podcast/the-inspiration-hub/id1596599540 Link to Weekly Tamil Christian Messages Podcast (John Giftah) : Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/in/podcast/tamil-christian-messages-john-giftah/id1596445581 WEEKLY RADIO SHOW DETAILS: Fuel For the Soul with John Giftah RADIO SHOW aires EVERY SUNDAY at 7 AM EST (5 AM MST / 5:30 PM IST on Military Broadcast Radio. You can watch the livestream on the JOHN GIFTAH Youtube channel or You can listen/watch on https://mbradio.us/ or by downloading the Military Broadcast Radio - MBR App on your phone. Check out the "Fuel for the Soul with John Giftah" podcast (Among the Top Christian Podcasts in India Ranking #1 / #2 on multiple podcast platforms and among the Top Podcasts in the world (2021)) : Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fuel-for-the-soul-with-john-giftah-inspirational/id1588234296 #JohnGiftah #JohnGiftahPodcast #Christian #Christianity #BibleStudy #Faith #Hope #InspirationalSermon #ChristianMotivation #ChristianInspiration #Motivation #Motivational #Inspirational #Bible #BibleStudy --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/john-giftah/message
Welcome! I keep thinking of the image of a tightrope walker with a safety net below them. Your kids are on the tightrope, up high, navigating the distances between one development stage to another. You aren't on the tightrope. You are the net holder. When your kids are little, your net is really close to the tightrope because you are literally keeping your kid alive. But as your kid gets older, your net needs to drop lower and lower. Dropping your net can be scary. Especially when your teenager starts making very adult decisions and maybe those decisions aren't so great and you are terrified they will fall off the tightrope and your entire body is tight with panic. Falling is normal. The drop from the tightrope to the net is where all your kid's learning happens. The falling is the learning. Not the walking across. Most of us do anything we can to prevent the fall. Watching your kid fall is HARD because it feels SCARY and RISKY. That's why parents yell, threaten their kids, lecture, monologue on the worst-case-scenarios, give them extreme consequences, or bribe their kids not to mess up. Because we don't want to feel the discomfort that comes when our kids make mistakes and “fall”. It's also why we rescue - which I talk a lot about in episode 20 called Why your kid doesn't listen. Even as I talk about this I recognize just how absolutely difficult this can be. I'm living it right now. That push/pull of motherhood as I grapple with dropping my net. The conflict is between trusting my kids will be ok, while also desperately wanting to prevent them from experiencing any pain, discomfort, or failure. I choose trust. This is what you can take comfort in. You are down below; watching, waiting, holding your breath, trusting them, hoping they don't fall but knowing it's ok if they do…because you always have your net ready. Parenthood is one long journey of dropping your net and trusting your kid. I'm going to talk a little bit about what I mean when I say Trust. 1st: Trust yourself. You are a mom and won't ever stop being one. You've trained your brain and heart to pay attention to your kid for years. You can trust that you will continue to show up for your kid. Help them solve problems. Think about things that you have solved in the past - when your kids were younger. For me, When kindergarten was an absolute disaster for Lincoln, I pulled him out and waited a year until he tried again. When traditional school environments weren't working for him, we found an alternative school that was a better fit We signed up for things and kept doing them until they didn't seem to fit. Knowing when to start and when to quit. When I needed parenting support, I found our family a parenting coach and got us help. I've survived stitches and broken bones. I've watched my kids struggle with bad grades, friendship hardships, emotional pain, I mean we all survived ZOOM school and months of quarantine!!! Recognize and honor your past self. All the intuition she has shown, and all the wisdom she has gained. Be grateful for her and what she's done or overcome to get you here. Now, think about future you. You from 5 years from now. How will she look back on this time of your life? She's going to think you're amazing. She's going to be proud of you. She's going to be grateful. That's what self-trust is about. Trusting past you for doing her best. Being kind to you in this moment. Trusting yourself that you are doing your best right now and that you can handle anything that comes your way. Trusting that you will always have your net out. You've already survived and overcome a lot. And you're still here. So I know you can figure out how to raise a teen! #2 Trusting Your Kid This is a little harder. When you look at your kid right now, it might be...
Dr. Don and Professor Ben talk about the risks of transporting watermelons from the field to post harvest in a grass lined flume. Dr. Don - risky ☣️ Professor Ben - risky ☣️ Joe Holt on Twitter: “@bugcounter @benjaminchapman transporting watermelons in a grass lined flume, or something. Risky or not?” / Twitter Internalization of Listeria monocytogenes in cantaloupes during dump tank washing and hydrocooling - ScienceDirect https://ucfoodsafety.ucdavis.edu/sites/g/files/dgvnsk7366/files/inline-files/223990.pdf https://www.fda.gov/media/116691/download Development and Validation of a Mathematical Model for Growth of Pathogens in Cut Melons | Journal of Food Protection
In this Soap Box podcast Patrick Gray interviews Airlock Digital CTO Daniel Schell and CEO David Cottingham about Microsoft's new Smart Application Control feature, why controlling browser extensions via endpoint instrumentation is really hard and why PAM solutions don't actually do allowlisting, even if they claim they do.
An update on the Uber breach. Emotet and other malware delivery systems. Belarusian Cyber Partisans work against the regime in Minsk. Grayson Milbourne of Webroot on the arms race for vulnerabilities. Rick Howard continues his exploration of cyber risk. And risky piracy sites–that's on the Internet, kids, not the high seas. For links to all of today's stories check out our CyberWire daily news briefing: https://thecyberwire.com/newsletters/daily-briefing/11/180 Selected reading. Developments in the case of the Uber breach. (CyberWire) Preliminary lessons from the Uber breach. (CyberWire) Uber says “no evidence” user accounts were compromised in hack (The Verge) Uber Claims No Sensitive Data Exposed in Latest Breach… But There's More to This (The Hacker News) Uber apparently hacked by teen, employees thought it was a joke (The Verge) Uber hacker claims to have full control of company's cloud-based servers (9to5Mac) The Uber Hack's Devastation Is Just Starting to Reveal Itself (WIRED) Uber was breached to its core, purportedly by an 18-year-old. Here's what's known (Ars Technica) Uber hacked by teen who annoyed employee into logging them in - report (Jerusalem Post) 18-year-old allegedly hacks Uber and sends employees messages on Slack (Interesting Engineering) Uber Investigating Massive Security Breach by Alleged Teen Hacker (Gizmodo) Uber cyber attack: protecting against social engineering (Information Age) Threat actor breaches many of Uber's critical systems (Cybersecurity Dive) Uber hacker claims to have full control of company's cloud-based servers (9to5Mac) Uber confirms hack in the the latest access and identity nightmare for corporate America (SC Media) Uber hacked, attacker tears through the company's systems (Help Net Security) Uber confirms it is investigating cybersecurity incident (The Record by Recorded Future) UBER HAS BEEN HACKED, boasts hacker – how to stop it happening to you (Naked Security) Emotet and other malware delivery systems. (CyberWire) Emotet botnet now pushes Quantum and BlackCat ransomware (BleepingComputer) AdvIntel's State of Emotet aka "SpmTools" Displays Over Million Compromised Machines Through 2022 (AdvIntel) August's Top Malware: Emotet Knocked off Top Spot by FormBook while GuLoader and Joker Disrupt the Index (Check Point Software) How Belarusian hacktivists are using digital tools to fight back (The Record by Recorded Future) Malvertising on piracy sites. (CyberWire) Unholy Triangle (Digital Citizens' Alliance) Piracy Advertising Researchers Fall Victim to Ransomware Attacks (TorrentFreak)