Narratives

### Podcast Title "Navigating Complex Systems: From Software Engineering to Real Estate" ### Summary In this episode of Narratives, host William Jarvis is joined by co-host Lars Doucet and special guest Patrick McKenzie. Patrick shares his journey from moving to Japan due to a misleading Wall Street Journal article to becoming a notable figure in the software engineering world, eventually working at Stripe and now advising and writing about financial infrastructure. The conversation delves into the state of the software engineering job market, the impact of large language models, and why Patrick believes the market is healthier than many think. Patrick discusses his method for arriving at contrarian viewpoints and the importance of revisiting past predictions to learn from them. Patrick also shares fascinating insights into how his father, a real estate acquisition specialist, taught him to "read the street" and understand the factors influencing business locations, particularly for companies like Walgreens. This leads to a broader discussion on the complexities of regulatory environments and how to navigate them, especially in highly regulated industries like property tax assessment and healthcare. The episode wraps up with advice for startups working in regulated industries, emphasizing the need to balance understanding the regulatory landscape while maintaining the drive to create value. Patrick's experience with the vaccinateCA initiative during the COVID-19 pandemic showcases how quickly adding state capacity can lead to significant improvements in public services. ### Podcast Notes **Introduction:** - Host: William Jarvis - Co-host: Lars Doucet - Guest: Patrick McKenzie **Key Topics Covered:** 1. **Patrick's Background:**    - Moving to Japan based on a Wall Street Journal article.    - Professional journey: Japanese salaryman, startup experience, joining Stripe, and current advisory and newsletter work. 2. **State of the Software Engineering Market:**    - Misconceptions from the past and present.    - Impact of large language models on the job market.    - The ongoing need for skilled engineers despite technological advancements. 3. **Methodology for Arriving at Contrarian Views:**    - Importance of reviewing past predictions.    - Learning from mistakes and maintaining an evidence-based approach. 4. **Real Estate Insights from Patrick's Father:**    - Understanding why certain locations are chosen for businesses.    - The difference between destination and non-destination locations.    - Sociological and logistical factors influencing real estate decisions. 5. **Navigating Regulatory Environments:**    - Balancing empathy and effectiveness in highly regulated industries.    - Avoiding regulatory capture while striving for positive change.    - Lessons from working at Stripe and the vaccinateCA initiative. 6. **Advice for Startups in Regulated Industries:**    - Understanding the incentive structures and constraints of participants.    - Maintaining focus on creating value.    - The importance of adding state capacity and being adaptable. **Conclusion:** - Patrick's contact information and where to find his work. **Sponsor Acknowledgment:** - Special thanks to Bismarck Analysis for their support. - Mention of the Bismarck Brief newsletter. This episode provides valuable insights into the software engineering market, real estate dynamics, and practical advice for navigating regulatory environments, making it a must-listen for anyone interested in these fields.

In this episode, we're joined by Molly Mielke to talk about agency. How to cultivate it, curate it and nurture it.        Images    

Malcolm's background. (0:05)         The problem of population collapse. (2:00)                         Demographics is destiny and gender equality. (8:17)                 How far along are we with artificial wombs? (11:25)                 The stock market is a safe place to store your assets. (16:05)         Fertility rates and their impact on asset prices. (18:56)                 The collapse of fertility in China. (23:26)         Cultural thriving in the future. (26:02)                 Where's the white pill on this? (31:03)         The collapse of the Roman Empire. (34:03)

Brent's background. 0:01 Introduction to assessment matters podcast. Brent's bio and big ideas for the future. How is the digitization of land records in the Us? 1:44 In the United States, the 1850 system has been digitized. The challenge of standardizing the process. Lack of standards across state to state. 3:21 Lack of standards across state to state and within states. Value structures using the cost method. What is the state of property rights in cadastral systems? 5:20 The state of cadastral systems across the world. The downsides of having a title insurance. What is the big barrier to land rights? 7:55 Securing land rights in the british colonies. Adoption of technology is key. Mapping the farc in Colombia. 9:52 The farc colombia peace treaty and repatriation of 15 million properties. Fit for purpose mapping. Where are the low hanging fruit? 11:23 The low-hanging fruit of real estate taxes. Taxation and real estate tax. Why people don't like property taxes? 13:09 Why Brent thinks property taxes are underrated. How Brent originally got into cadastral work. What are you most excited about in the next 20 years? 15:23 Excited about the next 20 years for cadastre. Building a cadastral system in developing countries. Where to learn more about Cadastral. 17:30 Where to learn more about Brent's work and Cadastral. Where to find more information about cadastral

  narratives - nathan final Summary Nathan's background. 0:05 Introduction to the podcast and the guest. Nathan's bio and his interest in urbanism. Stumbling into the discourse of urbanism. How he first got interested in the topic. Nathan's marketing background. 4:02 Nathan talks about marketing and movement. Nathan shares his take on marketing. How to best navigate social media discourse? 6:15 Observing various forms of discourse on social media. Cars vs other forms of transportation. The 15 minutes cities conspiracy theory going viral. How to win people over. Nathan's first instinct when he first heard about this. 11:42 The psychology of conspiracy theories and how they form. Nathan shares his thoughts on current EMP messaging and how to improve it. The challenge of explaining urbanism to the left. Dark money and deregulatory talk. Is there a conspiracy on twitter? 17:36 Skepticism toward power, paranoia and lack of ability to work around it. Twitter is toxic. Lessons learned from twitter. 20:31 Lessons learned from tiktok and how he manages his communications. Tiktock is a health sign. The benefits of being a youtuber on Twitter and tiktok. Making a statement for yourself. Contrarian rebelling on social media. 25:20 Being an anti-group from a young age. The internet is full of people like you. The intellectual dark web and social media. How social media is like the urbanist movement. Emv vs urbanest in their bio. Freddy de boer, critical of vmb. The aesthetics and vibes of a movement. 31:55 Reservations about joining a group, aesthetics, vibes and who's in the room. Deep blue texas. Defining the differences between left and right. How humans work, and why it matters. How do we interpret our political leanings? 36:19 No party is free of guilt. Tribalism is any kind of group thing. AOC is a lightning rod of discourse. AOC and the left-right divide. Practical examples of the problem with framing and framing. 42:05 The difference between a conservative and a conservative. Practical examples in activism. Single-family zoning and how it is framed. How conservatives react to single- family zoning. How to get people to care. 47:03 Why most people don't care about politics. How to choose the right messaging. Reframing politics around culture and policy engagement. Taking a step back regularly to recalibrate. Advice to the young people. 52:28 Ten good-faith, thoughtful arguments vs one or two bad-faith responses. Online friends vs real-life friends. Advice for a budding movement trying to change the world. Follow their passions. Where are your strengths? 56:59 Everyone is passionate about something, even if it's something stupid. Not everybody can be joe rogan. The anti-podcaster meme, and why it's a bad thing. Bismarck analysis newsletter. narratives - nathan final Summary Nathan's background. 0:05 Introduction to the podcast and the guest. Nathan's bio and his interest in urbanism. Stumbling into the discourse of urbanism. How he first got interested in the topic. Nathan's marketing background. 4:02 Nathan talks about marketing and movement. Nathan shares his take on marketing. How to best navigate social media discourse? 6:15 Observing various forms of discourse on social media. Cars vs other forms of transportation. The 15 minutes cities conspiracy theory going viral. How to win people over. Nathan's first instinct when he first heard about this. 11:42 The psychology of conspiracy theories and how they form. Nathan shares his thoughts on current EMP messaging and how to improve it. The challenge of explaining urbanism to the left. Dark money and deregulatory talk. Is there a conspiracy on twitter? 17:36 Skepticism toward power, paranoia and lack of ability to work around it. Twitter is toxic. Lessons learned from twitter. 20:31 Lessons learned from tiktok and how he manages his communications. Tiktock is a health sign. The benefits of being a youtuber on Twitter and tiktok. Making a statement for yourself. Contrarian rebelling on social media. 25:20 Being an anti-group from a young age. The internet is full of people like you. The intellectual dark web and social media. How social media is like the urbanist movement. Emv vs urbanest in their bio. Freddy de boer, critical of vmb. The aesthetics and vibes of a movement. 31:55 Reservations about joining a group, aesthetics, vibes and who's in the room. Deep blue texas. Defining the differences between left and right. How humans work, and why it matters. How do we interpret our political leanings? 36:19 No party is free of guilt. Tribalism is any kind of group thing. AOC is a lightning rod of discourse. AOC and the left-right divide. Practical examples of the problem with framing and framing. 42:05 The difference between a conservative and a conservative. Practical examples in activism. Single-family zoning and how it is framed. How conservatives react to single- family zoning. How to get people to care. 47:03 Why most people don't care about politics. How to choose the right messaging. Reframing politics around culture and policy engagement. Taking a step back regularly to recalibrate. Advice to the young people. 52:28 Ten good-faith, thoughtful arguments vs one or two bad-faith responses. Online friends vs real-life friends. Advice for a budding movement trying to change the world. Follow their passions. Where are your strengths? 56:59 Everyone is passionate about something, even if it's something stupid. Not everybody can be joe rogan. The anti-podcaster meme, and why it's a bad thing. Bismarck analysis newsletter. narratives - nathan final Summary Nathan's background. 0:05 Introduction to the podcast and the guest. Nathan's bio and his interest in urbanism. Stumbling into the discourse of urbanism. How he first got interested in the topic. Nathan's marketing background. 4:02 Nathan talks about marketing and movement. Nathan shares his take on marketing. How to best navigate social media discourse? 6:15 Observing various forms of discourse on social media. Cars vs other forms of transportation. The 15 minutes cities conspiracy theory going viral. How to win people over. Nathan's first instinct when he first heard about this. 11:42 The psychology of conspiracy theories and how they form. Nathan shares his thoughts on current EMP messaging and how to improve it. The challenge of explaining urbanism to the left. Dark money and deregulatory talk. Is there a conspiracy on twitter? 17:36 Skepticism toward power, paranoia and lack of ability to work around it. Twitter is toxic. Lessons learned from twitter. 20:31 Lessons learned from tiktok and how he manages his communications. Tiktock is a health sign. The benefits of being a youtuber on Twitter and tiktok. Making a statement for yourself. Contrarian rebelling on social media. 25:20 Being an anti-group from a young age. The internet is full of people like you. The intellectual dark web and social media. How social media is like the urbanist movement. Emv vs urbanest in their bio. Freddy de boer, critical of vmb. The aesthetics and vibes of a movement. 31:55 Reservations about joining a group, aesthetics, vibes and who's in the room. Deep blue texas. Defining the differences between left and right. How humans work, and why it matters. How do we interpret our political leanings? 36:19 No party is free of guilt. Tribalism is any kind of group thing. AOC is a lightning rod of discourse. AOC and the left-right divide. Practical examples of the problem with framing and framing. 42:05 The difference between a conservative and a conservative. Practical examples in activism. Single-family zoning and how it is framed. How conservatives react to single- family zoning. How to get people to care. 47:03 Why most people don't care about politics. How to choose the right messaging. Reframing politics around culture and policy engagement. Taking a step back regularly to recalibrate. Advice to the young people. 52:28 Ten good-faith, thoughtful arguments vs one or two bad-faith responses. Online friends vs real-life friends. Advice for a budding movement trying to change the world. Follow their passions. Where are your strengths? 56:59 Everyone is passionate about something, even if it's something stupid. Not everybody can be joe rogan. The anti-podcaster meme, and why it's a bad thing. Bismarck analysis newsletter. narratives - nathan final Summary Nathan's background. 0:05 Introduction to the podcast and the guest. Nathan's bio and his interest in urbanism. Stumbling into the discourse of urbanism. How he first got interested in the topic. Nathan's marketing background. 4:02 Nathan talks about marketing and movement. Nathan shares his take on marketing. How to best navigate social media discourse? 6:15 Observing various forms of discourse on social media. Cars vs other forms of transportation. The 15 minutes cities conspiracy theory going viral. How to win people over. Nathan's first instinct when he first heard about this. 11:42 The psychology of conspiracy theories and how they form. Nathan shares his thoughts on current EMP messaging and how to improve it. The challenge of explaining urbanism to the left. Dark money and deregulatory talk. Is there a conspiracy on twitter? 17:36 Skepticism toward power, paranoia and lack of ability to work around it. Twitter is toxic. Lessons learned from twitter. 20:31 Lessons learned from tiktok and how he manages his communications. Tiktock is a health sign. The benefits of being a youtuber on Twitter and tiktok. Making a statement for yourself. Contrarian rebelling on social media. 25:20 Being an anti-group from a young age. The internet is full of people like you. The intellectual dark web and social media. How social media is like the urbanist movement. Emv vs urbanest in their bio. Freddy de boer, critical of vmb. The aesthetics and vibes of a movement. 31:55 Reservations about joining a group, aesthetics, vibes and who's in the room. Deep blue texas. Defining the differences between left and right. How humans work, and why it matters. How do we interpret our political leanings? 36:19 No party is free of guilt. Tribalism is any kind of group thing. AOC is a lightning rod of discourse. AOC and the left-right divide. Practical examples of the problem with framing and framing. 42:05 The difference between a conservative and a conservative. Practical examples in activism. Single-family zoning and how it is framed. How conservatives react to single- family zoning. How to get people to care. 47:03 Why most people don't care about politics. How to choose the right messaging. Reframing politics around culture and policy engagement. Taking a step back regularly to recalibrate. Advice to the young people. 52:28 Ten good-faith, thoughtful arguments vs one or two bad-faith responses. Online friends vs real-life friends. Advice for a budding movement trying to change the world. Follow their passions. Where are your strengths? 56:59 Everyone is passionate about something, even if it's something stupid. Not everybody can be joe rogan. The anti-podcaster meme, and why it's a bad thing. Bismarck analysis newsletter.

Dan Katz - ESG and Asset Management.   Dan's background. (0:05)                 How well do you rate the performance of the federal government? (4:14)                 What was the impact of the pandemic on the Us? (8:17)                         The problem with Esg and how Esg has changed. (14:53)                 Active vs passive investing. (18:48)                         The shift from active investing to indexing. (25:35)                 The problem with Esg. (29:27)                 The Usa etf and how it works. (34:17)                 The importance of supply chain and geopolitical risk. (38:29)                 Geopolitical risks and opportunities. (43:26)                 Industrial policy and nearshoring. (48:10)

Christopher England received his Ph.D. from Georgetown in 2015. His research and teaching focus on U.S. social movements, economic thought, and communications. He has taught at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Loyola University Maryland, and Stanford University. His forthcoming book, Land and Liberty: Henry George and the Crafting of Modern Liberalism, is scheduled to be published by Johns Hopkins University Press in February 2023. Land and Liberty traces the influence of the journalist Henry George, who argued that rising rents were the primary cause of economic inequality. England has been interviewed about his research for the upcoming PBS documentary The Monopolists and for articles in De Correspondent and Reason.  We discuss his book, Land and Liberty. Lars Doucet joins as a cohost for this episode.     

In this episode, I'm joined by Neil Chilson to talk about: Impact of imposed legibility. 4:48   The problem with platform monopolies and network effects. 10:51 Content moderation on social media. 17:02 What challenges will Elon face when taking twitter private? 21:44 The truth about government policy and how individuals can help. 27:19 The power of the wave and the beach analogy. 32:29   Has the federal government gotten worse over time?

In this episode we're joined by UC Boulder philosophy professor Alex Priou, and Russ Green to discuss Technology, Progress and History.

In this episode we're joined by writer Ed West to discuss the decline of the UK, the future of Europe, and where we go from here. This episode was cohosted by Lars Doucet. 

In this episode, we're joined by Cameron Murray, an Australian economist to discuss corruption, property, and the economics of Australia. 

We cover:  David's background. 0:05   What's the right kind of partnership? 2:44   The trade-off between speed of building infrastructure and the negative externalities. 8:44   Inefficiencies in the environmental process. 10:16   Public engagement through digital channels and digital channels. 15:11   Broadband gaps in the Us. 17:54   When will autonomous vehicles replace human drivers? 23:46   Autonomy as a wind problem. 29:19   Policy policy and policy politics. 32:51   What is a virtual power plant?

In this episode, we're joined by Jeremiah Johnson, the creator of the Neoliberal movement. 

In this episode, we're joined by Dartmouth student Jeremy Hadfield to talk about x-risks, Nietzsche, Degrowth, and a whole lot more. 

In this episode, we're joined by Stand Together CTO Mark Johnson. We discuss: Mark's background, the problem with tech transfers from basic research, the cultural differences between Silicon Valley and San Francisco, how can we encourage a bottom up approach to philanthropy, how to manage well, and a whole lot more. 

In this episode we discuss: When to throw in the towel and when not to, the commonalities between the best and worst founders, the bottleneck to innovation in tech, dealing with pressure to grow bigger funds, venture as an access game and a whole lot more. 

In this episode, we're joined by Eli Dourado to discuss his recent article Heretical thoughts on AI. How LLMs will interact with the culture war, how alignment can make the great stagnation worse, and a whole lot more. 

In this episode, we're joined by previous guest Ben Reinhardt to discuss his newest venture, Speculative Technologies. https://www.spec.tech/library/introducing-speculative-technologies We also discuss the ins and outs of starting a new organization, how to bootstrap legitimacy, the second order effects of technology, large language models, and the future of robotics and its current challenges. 

In this episode, we're joined by On Deck cofounder Julian Weisser to discuss the right framework for finding new ideas, lessons for founders to draw from the past, aligning on values before aligning on ideas, founding pairs that work well, the role of defensibility, the role of no code, distributed ownership vs. concentrated ownership, and a whole lot more. 

In this episode, we're joined by Misha Saul to discuss geographic determinism and inevitability, how Misha thinks about finding alpha. Retrofitted narratives and how they work, the domestication of men.The importance of symbolic ceremonial traditional things. The importance of knowing the jewish tradition, and a whole lot more. 

In this episode, we're joined by Garrett Langley of Flock Safety to discuss the nature of crime in our society. How to decrease crime, and how to build a hyper-growth startup outside of the major hubs. 

In this episode, we're joined by Joey Politano to discuss the state of the global economy, what happened in 1971, his blog Aprictas Economics and a whole lot more. 

In this episode, we're joined by Devon Zuegel to talk about Prospera, urban sprawl, James Scott's Against the Grain, Georgism and more. 

In this episode, we're joined by Zach Caraces to talk about startup cities, what has gone wrong with American cities? What can we do to fix them? The lack of customer service culture in the cities industry. Platform vs. product cities, why Americans love to travel in Latin American cities. The overlap between what the AI field is learning and urban planning, how planned startups cities should be, Kannapolis NC, and a whole lot more. 

In this episode I'm joined by Emily Harrawood. Emily is an early-childhood educator and founder with extensive knowledge of the childcare industry. We discuss the current problems with the industry, how it originally came about, how to improve it, and what the future of childcare looks like in the United States. 

In this episode, we're joined by Jai Malik, GP of Countdown Capital to discuss how we can rebuild America's industrial base. 

In this episode we are joined by John Manoocheri and Shawnee Foster to discuss the spatial web, the future of the metaverse, the state of architecture, the nature of art and a whole lot more. You can find John and Shawnee's work at https://treasury.space/

In this episode, we're joined by Cam Wiese to discuss his new World's Fair project https://worldsfair.co/. We also discuss how to change culture, break stagnation, and build a better future. 

In this episode, I'm joined by my friend Jeff Huber to discuss just what comes after modernity. We also discuss the current moment, can we build a definite vision of the future, Peter Thiel, the role of Christianity, and a whole lot more. You can check out Jeff's work at https://twitter.com/jeffreyhuber

In this episode we're joined by Mr. Beat, a renowned teacher and educator who now runs the youtube channel https://www.youtube.com/@iammrbeat We discuss the best methods to teach someone anything, the state of youtube for content creators, Mr. Beat's recent interest in the economist Henry George and more.  This episode was cohosted by Lars Doucet. 

In this episode, we're joined byReed Shafer-Ray to talk about moral entrepreneurship, his new effort called Mountaintop, how to reshape the culture of American elites and a whole lot more.  Reed is a Harvard grad who cofounded Lead for America. 

In this episode, we're joined by Resident Contrarian to discuss being poor in America, the state of Christianity, social conservatism, and a whole lot more.  Resident blogs at: https://www.residentcontrarian.com/

In this episode, I'm joined by Zohar Atkins to discuss the future of Liberalism, hierarchy, AI, religion and a whole lot more. 

In this episode, we are joined by Rohit Krishanan to talk about EA, the value of management consultants, the common traits of companies that last a long time, and where all of the Beethoven's went.  Rohit blogs at https://www.strangeloopcanon.com/ 

I recorded an episode with Marshall Kosloff about theories of change and progress, what outsiders get right and wrong about the American political system, why politicians should wear suits, and a whole lot more. This episode was cohosted by Lars Doucet. You can find Marshall's podcast at https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-realignment/id1474687988

In this episode, I'm joined by Jeffrey Ladish to discuss AI alignment, the possibility of abundance and how information security matters for alignment. Jeffrey blogs at https://jeffreyladish.com/

In this episode, we're joined by Lars Doucet to discuss his new book, Land Is A Big Deal. You can buy it here: https://www.shacksimplepress.com/product-page/land-is-a-big-deal

In this episode, we're joined by urban economist Stephen Hoskins to discuss the relationship between zoning and land value. This episode was cohosted by Lars Doucet.  https://progressandpoverty.substack.com/p/land-and-the-liberty-to-build-on

In this episode we're joined by early stage investor Minn Kim to talk about Industrial Progress, Immigration and the American Dream. We also cover the future of frontier tech, and how to enable more successful hard tech companies through better policy. 

In this episode we are joined by Trevor Klee. Trevor is the founder of Highway Pharmaceuticals is a biotech startup creating drugs for autoimmune diseases. Right now, they're running a pilot trial of our drug in feline stomatitis.    Feline stomatitis is a serious autoimmune disease that affects 1 million cats per year in the US. The only treatment for it currently is a $1k+ surgery. By the end of the trial, we expect to have evidence that our drug can safely and effectively suppress the feline immune system. This positions our drug to become the only alternative to an expensive and traumatizing surgery.   Trevor is currently raising funds to cover the rest of the costs of the trial, as well as position us for our next milestones, which you can check out here: https://wefunder.com/highway.pharmaceuticals/

In this episode, I talk with Stuart about metascience, why the age of NIH grantees has risen so much, how to improve science, and how well our current funding organizations work.  Stuart runs the Good Science Project. https://goodscienceproject.org/

In this episode, we're joined by Emad Mostaque, founder and CEO of Stability.ai to talk about his recent release of Stable Diffusion (an open source transformer language model), AI ethics, AI alignment, and what large language models mean for the fuutre.  This episode was co-hosted by Lars Doucet.  

In this episode we're joined by Nathan Baschez, cofounder of Every. We discuss business strategy, how win with content, and the art of writing well. 

In this episode, we are joined by Sam Bowman to talk about the housing theory of everything, the slowdown in science and technology, the long term economic future of the UK, and a whole lot more. 

In this episode we are joined by Founders Pledge CEO David Goldberg to discuss philanthropy, how best to do good, and how startup founders should think about prioritizing their charitable giving. 

In this episode we're joined by Noah Smith to talk about Georgism, why we need abundant energy, housing, heathcare and dignity, and the success of the YIMBY movement. Noah Smith is an economist who blogs at https://noahpinion.substack.com/ This episode was co-hosted by Lars Doucet.

In this episode of Narratives, we're joined by Byrne Hobart to discuss finance, bubbles, reflexivity, George Soros, the EMH and a whole lot more. Byrne blogs at the https://www.thediff.co/

In this episode, we are joined by the demographer Paul Morland to discuss his new book Tomorrow's People. We discuss the decline in infant mortality, the lack of population growth in the developed world and what has caused it, urbanization, fertility, population decline in the West, and a whole lot more. 

In this episode, we're joined by NYU professor Arpit Gupta to talk about transit, zoning, land value taxes and housing. We also discuss land value capture and public transit. This episode features my friend Lars Doucet as a co-host. 

In this episode, we're joined by Matt Clifford to talk about the history of ambition, his work building Entrepreneur First, cofounder matching, talent investing, and how to direct more talented people into better career paths. 

Jordan Blashek is the author of the book Union: A democrat, a republican, and the search for common ground. Jordan is also an impact Investor, and Military Veteran, focused on strengthening the U.S. strategic advantage. He is the cofounder of America's Frontier Fund https://americasfrontier.org/ In this episode, we talk America's defense system, solving political polarization, and how we can win in a great power conflict with China.