Podcasts about byrne hobart

In this edition of the Yet Another Value Podcast Book Club, host Andrew Walker reunites with Byrne Hobart of The Diff to revisit The Snowball, Alice Schroeder's biography of Warren Buffett. Triggered by Buffett's recent retirement, the two reflect on how their views have evolved since first reading the book in their 20s. They unpack Buffett's complex personal life, his early financial maneuvers, near-catastrophic risks, and lasting investment philosophies. Key discussions include Buffett's detached family dynamics, calculated leverage, deep value tactics, and overlooked geopolitical caution. With a balance of admiration and critique, Andrew and Byrne present a thoughtful, analytical take on the man often mythologized as America's greatest investor.______________________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast intro and book overview[00:02:05] First impressions of Snowball reread[00:04:28] Buffett's emotional and family struggles[00:05:57] His early business brilliance questioned[00:08:41] Risks nearly tanked early ventures[00:10:17] Byrne reflects on insurance troubles[00:13:44] Buffett's dual investing motivations[00:15:27] Shady dynamics of Buffett's PA[00:17:45] Hustling to raise initial capital[00:21:12] Best wins: control and distress[00:23:36] Early Buffett vs modern strategies[00:26:54] Why he avoided foreign stocks[00:28:17] Could modern Buffett act similarly?[00:30:52] Gray areas in early arbitrage[00:33:57] Incentives, risk, and bad bets[00:35:22] Buffett's paradoxical driving style[00:36:51] Solomon drama and reputational play[00:40:33] Was Solomon really near failure?[00:43:36] Role of Buffett's presence in bailout[00:45:10] LTCM: Buffett's ultimate near-miss[00:49:40] Snowball ends during 2008 crisis[00:50:52] Experience shapes Buffett's crisis style[00:53:31] Is he great at market timing?[00:56:14] Tough negotiator in private deals[01:01:34] Reconciling bearish macro with buysLinksYet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this episode of the Yet Another Value Podcast FinTwit Book Club, Andrew Walker is joined by Byrne Hobart of The Diff to discuss Clashing Over Commerce, a sweeping political and economic history of U.S. trade policy. Against the backdrop of current debates on tariffs, they explore how deeply tariffs shaped American politics, the surprising economic nuance found in 19th-century policy, and the recurring tensions between protectionism and free trade. From supply chain shifts to presidential power dynamics, they unpack what history might tell us about today's trade decisions—and what it doesn't.______________________________________________________________________Chapters[00:00:00] Introduction to the episode and the featured book, Clashing Over Commerce[00:03:33] Byrne Hobart on why reading the book made him feel better about modern tariffs[00:07:08] The role of modern supply chains in shaping today's trade complexity[00:10:52] Reflections on historical perspectives: agrarian vs. industrial interests[00:14:41] How lobbying and special interests shaped tariff legislation[00:19:30] The political economy of tariffs from the Civil War to the Gilded Age[00:25:22] Evolution of U.S. revenue sources and tariff enforcement mechanisms[00:30:48] Historical voting patterns and their echoes in recent trade policy[00:35:19] Shift of tariff authority from Congress to the executive branch[00:40:51] Modern-day political identity vs. regional trade interests[00:45:37] How tariffs function as economic handouts or job guarantees[00:50:44] Presidential comparisons and the rhetorical lineage of tariff advocacy[00:55:28] Historical trade-offs in trade deals: from Britain to banana imports[01:00:16] The legacy of statehood as a political tool for tariff influence[01:03:33] Critiques of the book: length, editing, and lack of a strong conclusion[01:08:49] Final thoughts on the enduring impact of tariffs on U.S. political systemsLinks:Alphasense activism webinar: https://go.alpha-sense.com/wb-imp-genai-fs-yavp-inside-boardroom/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=WB_DG_04-21-25_IMP-GENAI_FS_Yavp-Inside-BoardroomThe Diff Newsletter - https://www.thediff.co/ Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

In this episode, Byrne Hobart joined Matjaž Leonardis in Austin for an Interintellect salon — a platform for 21st-century intellectual discourse—to discuss his new book Boom: Bubbles at the End of Stagnation, exploring how technological advancements, market paradoxes, and historical and modern financial bubbles — from the Manhattan Project to cryptocurrencies — reveal the complex dynamics between innovation, ideology, ambition, and hyper-financialization in a nonpolitical, high-quality conversation among leading and emerging thinkers. Interintellect is a creator platform for intellectual seekers to host salons for the 21st century.  Join the conversation at https://interintellect.com. Attend or host salons. Connect with our community of intellectual seekers. For a limited time, members go to all salons for free! --- Highlights from the Episode: Two Types of Bubbles: Extrapolation bubbles predict transformative future changes unlike the past, while mean reversion bubbles project an intensified continuation of past trends. Financial Markets and Risk-Taking: Financial markets can both encourage and inhibit innovation. Talent Allocation: The sectors where talented individuals choose to work—shifting historically from government to the private sector to finance—profoundly shape the direction and nature of society's major innovations and projects. Different Investment Approaches: George Soros - Identifies momentum and rides bubbles up, then exits when sentiment changes. Bubbles and Progress: Many transformative bubbles involve building multiple things in parallel that wouldn't make sense individually. -- SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 --- LINKS: Byrne's writing: https://thediff.co --- X / TWITTER: https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart (Byrne) https://twitter.com/TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)

In this episode, Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart discuss the economic consequences of Trump's tariffs, OpenAI's recent innovations, and their implications for white collar work. They also explore the potential market shifts, the resilience of the US dollar as a reserve currency, and the state of elite higher education institutions like Harvard in the current geopolitical climate. —

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg explore how technological advancements, policy shifts like Trump's tariffs and U.S. industrial policy, the re-industrialization of America, the influence of institutions like Harvard, the evolving role of the U.S. dollar, and the rise of OpenAI are reshaping global markets, businesses, and the future of artificial intelligence. ---

In this episode of The Riff, we are releasing a conversation Byrne Hobart had on the Bankless podcast about Byrne's book Bitcoin, exploring the provocative idea that speculative Bubbles—while sometimes destructive—can be powerful drivers of innovation, with examples from history and present-day trends like AI and crypto, ultimately highlighting the value of embracing risk to shape a transformative future. ---

Today on Upstream, we're sharing an episode of The Riff (originally aired on April 1, 2025). Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart explore the shifting dynamics of global trade between China and the US, the potential for AI to replace senior rather than junior roles in the workplace, and the economic structure of live entertainment markets like StubHub. —

In this episode of the Yet Another Value Podcast Monthly Book Club, host Andrew Walker is joined by Byrne Hobart, author of The Diff newsletter, to discuss Diary of a Very Bad Year: Confessions of an Anonymous Hedge Fund Manager. The conversation explores the book's candid insights from a hedge fund manager navigating the 2008 financial crisis. Andrew and Byrne dig into the accuracy of predictions made in real time, the psychology of uncertainty, and the relevance of past financial mistakes to today's AI boom and private credit landscape. This is a thoughtful discussion on expertise, misallocation, and financial memory—both personal and systemic.This month's book on amazon: https://amzn.to/4hUNk8sChapters:[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: AlphaSense[2:00] Overview of Diary of a Very Bad Year: Confessions of an Anonymous Hedge Fund Manager[12:00] Bubbles through a misallocation of resources lens[22:35] History rhymes / Predictions in the book[35:45] Tariffs today versus housing in 2005[45:00] Misallocation of resources if AI is a bubble[56:00] Druckenmiller's Argentinean betToday's sponsor: AlphaSense; Try it free today at alpha-sense.com/YAVPThis episode is brought to you by AlphaSense—the market intelligence platform I rely on for faster, deeper insight.If you've used platforms like Tegus, you'll feel right at home—but AlphaSense takes it further. With over 150,000 expert call transcripts and 450 million+ premium documents, it's become my go-to resource for both qualitative and competitive research.And now, with Generative AI tools like Gen Search and Gen Grid, AlphaSense makes it easier than ever to accelerate your workflow. Gen Search lets you ask natural-language questions—like “What's driving margin pressure in semis?”—and instantly surfaces answers pulled from expert calls, earnings transcripts, filings, and more.Gen Grid takes it a step further—automating repeatable workflows by applying multiple prompts across dozens of documents at once. It delivers clean, table-format answers like sales trends, macro commentary, or pricing signals—all with clickable citations so you can trace insights directly to the source.Whether you're digging into a company, comparing peers, or parsing 10-Ks at scale, AlphaSense gives you a speed and depth advantage. Try it free today at alpha-sense.com/YAVP and experience the future of research.See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the transformative impact of technological change on global trade, AI's disruption of senior roles, the debate over AI-generated art, and market dynamics—particularly in live entertainment ticketing—offering a wide-ranging and thought-provoking discussion. ---

This week on Upstream, we're releasing an episode of The Riff (originally aired on March 25, 2025) where Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart discuss Don Jr.'s leveraging of the Trump brand, Dustin Moskovitz's departure to address AI risks, economic impacts of various policies, and geopolitical considerations with a focus on AI and China's tech ambitions. —

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg explore Donald Trump Jr.'s financial leverage of the Trump brand, Dustin Moskovitz's shift toward AI existential risks, Elon Musk's strategic decisions with Twitter, potential U.S. recessions, political party shifts, China's AI policy, and the broader impact of these developments on Wall Street and Main Street. ---

Today on Upstream, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg dive into the wide-ranging effects of technological change on media and society. They cover the AI debate, blogging's social impact, AI's influence on search and data, the changing news industry, foreign aid cuts, and the rise of new tech elites. This episode originally aired on The Riff (March 11, 2025). —

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg explore the effects of technological change on media and society, covering topics such as the AI debate, blogging's social impact, AI's influence on search and data, the changing news industry, foreign aid cuts, and the rise of new tech elites. ---

Welcome to the latest edition of Yet Another Value Podcast's Book Club. Once a month, Andrew and co-host, Byrne Hobart, will discuss their thoughts on the book, "Advanced Portfolio Management: A Quant's Guide for Fundamental Investors" by Giuseppe A. Paleologo.See Byrne's writing at: https://www.thediff.co/"Advanced Portfolio Management: A Quant's Guide for Fundamental Investors" on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Advanced-Portfolio-Management-Fundamental-Investors/dp/1119789796Chapters:[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fintool[2:24] First thoughts and overall impressions of "Advanced Portfolio Management"[5:54] Which pieces do you use to implement into your investing process that Byrne picked up from this book / how they implement "stop-losses"[19:00] It's not enough to have great ideas / "it only takes one" vs. concentrated portfolio / making good calls over time[29:17] Is there anything to buying things that are classified wrong in order to generate alpha?[32:54] How much are these factor and pod-shop models gameable[40:23] How much does Byrne think matching uncorrelated data is going to be taken over by AI vs. fundamental investors going forward[48:25] Beating the bots / final thoughtsToday's sponsor: FintoolFintool is ChatGPT for SEC Filings and earnings calls. Are you still doing keyword searches and going to the individual filing and using control F? That's the old way of doing things before AI. With Fintool, you can ask any question and it's going to automatically generate the best answer. So they may pull from a portion of an earnings call, or a 10k, whatever it may be and then answer your question. The best part- every portion of the answer is cited with the source document.Now- if you've tried to do any of this in ChatGPT you may know that the answers are often wrong or hallucinations. The way Fintool is able to outperform ChatGPT is their focus on the SEC filings. If you're an analyst or a portfolio manager at a hedge fund, check them out at https://fintool.com?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=yavb&utm_content=podcast280See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg examine why Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway can't be successfully replicated today, analyze Bill Gates's public versus private persona, and consider how economic growth manifests as "premium mediocre" options like Chipotle. ---

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss technological inflection points and examine how legal frameworks mask continued globalization despite apparent retrenchment, explores US-China dynamics, analyzes AI industry structure and emerging models, and considers Uber's strategic positioning against autonomous vehicles. ---

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the transformative impact of technological advancements, particularly OpenAI's research, Elon Musk's $97 billion offer to acquire its controlling nonprofit, and the implications for business, jobs, regulation, and Musk's strategies with X and Doja. ---

Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart discuss the implications of recent tariffs, the impact of AI advancements like DeepSeek, Meta's investments in VR and AI, stock market dynamics, and differing perspectives on open-source AI models. —

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg explore the impact of technological advancements on markets and businesses, covering topics like global trade tariffs, political populism, AI's evolving role, open-source vs. proprietary models, stock market trends, and Meta's investments in the metaverse and AR. ---

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the major disruptions in tech and business driven by AI advancements, examining reactions to DeepSeek's announcements, stock impacts on companies like Nvidia, volatility in AI investments, Meta's Threads, Elon Musk's influence on X, the role of tech in a politically charged landscape, and how governments could shape industrial strategies to support national champions. ---

Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) revisits his March 2023 essay that explained the dynamics of bank runs and system stress during the banking crisis one month prior. With data from a newly released Federal Reserve paper, he analyzes the true scope of the banking stress - including revelations that 22 banks experienced severe deposit outflows, far more than publicly known at the time. While officials blamed social media for bank runs, data shows institutional players, not retail depositors, drove the events. –Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/banking-crisis-two-years-later/–Sponsors:  Vanta | GiveWell | CheckVanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complexSupport proven charities that deliver measurable results and learn how to maximize your charitable impact with GiveWell. Go to givewell.org (and type in "Complex Systems" at checkout).Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.–Links:Bits About Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/banking-in-very-uncertain-times/Federal Reserve Report: Tracing Bank Runs in Real Time https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr1104.html Byrne Hobart's blog The Diff: https://www.thediff.co/ Matt Levine's blog Money Stuff: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/money-stuff –Twitter:@patio11–Timestamps: (00:00) Revisiting the March 2023 essay(01:47) The Fed's study(11:21) Why are banks failing?(14:41) A useful heuristic from bond math(18:05) Sponsors: Vanta | Check(21:00) Maturity transformation(29:54) Sponsor: GiveWell(30:42) Liquidity problems are the proximate cause of bank failures(33:43) Trying to forestall a banking crisis(40:16) Deposit insurance expansion(47:12) Deposit insurance has some legacy issues(52:04) What would happen if my bank were to go into receivership this weekend?(59:46) What should users of the banking system do?(01:04:09) Parting thoughts(01:05:08) Footnote

On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart explore the impact of technological change on markets, touching on meme investments, ESG, the rise of meme stocks and coins, Trump's policies, China's economic strategies, industrial policy debates, and how these factors could shape the future political and economic landscape. ---

This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg explore the historical paradigms from agrarian to industrial eras and potential future growth, while also addressing challenges in adopting new technologies like AI, institutional constraints at companies like Meta, post-COVID loneliness, the Scandinavian economic model, China's deflation concerns, and structural issues within OpenAI, all through a mix of personal anecdotes and historical insights. ---

In this bonus episode, Andrew and Byrne Hobart from The Diff discuss the 2008 book More Than a Numbers Game See Byrne's writing at: https://www.thediff.co/ More Than a Numbers Game on amazon: https://amzn.to/4ajREfe See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

When we think of booms and busts, we often think of waste. The dot-com bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, and the late 2010s crypto craze drew insane levels of capital into new markets, proceeded to overheat them, and then vaporized everything — leaving a trail of destruction in their wake. Is there a more positive way of looking at these feverish moments of economic activity though, one that accounts for progress? That's the question at the heart of Byrne Hobart and Tobias Huber's new book Boom from Stripe Press. They argue that far from being a destructive force, booms are in fact the critical ingredient needed to induce change in companies, institutions and people. For the low price of the dot-com bubble, we got some of the world's greatest and more valuable companies, whose worth dwarfs the original cost of the bubble by multiples. Progress can be brought forward in time by the exuberance of these heady eras. Host Danny Crichton talks with Byrne and Tobias about what booms are and what they do, how economic progress is triggered through business cycles, the cultural spillovers of periods of change, why we should stop being concerned about the scarcity of capital and how to avoid zero-sum thinking in the economics of growth. Produced by Chris Gates Music by George Ko

Author Tae Kim joins Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart to discuss his book 'The NVIDIA Way,' highlighting CEO Jensen Huang's transformation of Nvidia into a tech giant, the company's unique culture, and Nvidia's crucial strategic decisions. —

Finance and tech writer Byrne Hobart discusses how bubbles are a good thing, overcoming stagnation, and the religiosity of space exploration.

How can economic bubbles be good for the world? Byrne Hobart is a financial analyst known for his newsletter "The Diff" which covers tech, trends and economics. Byrne has been on the periphery of crypto for longer that this podcast has existed In this podcast we discuss the book he has co-authored, Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation, where he makes the case for why human progress has stagnated and why speculative bubbles might be the only way out. ------

There is a counter intuitive school of thought - represented by Tyler Cowen, Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen - which suggests that America, for all its technological innovation, remains trapped by long term economic stagnation. So it's no coincidence that the Austin based investor, consultant, and writer, Byrne Hobart's co-authored new book, Boom, comes with enthusiastic blurbs from Cowen, Thiel and Andreessen. If we are to escape our current stagnation, Hobart explained to me when we met in Austin, then we might welcome economic bubbles such as our current AI craze. To get to a boom, he even seems to suggest, borrowing from the ideas of the great economic historian Carlotta Perez, we may even need to celebrate bubbles.Byrne Hobart is an investor, consultant, and writer. He is the author of The Diff, a daily newsletter covering inflection points in finance and technology. He is also a founding partner at Anomaly, a frontier tech investment firm.Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting KEEN ON, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy show. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children.Keen On is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe

This week on Upstream, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the potential of AI agents in tech support, economic impacts of passive investing, historical financial strategies of Warren Buffett, and the implications of tariffs and technological developments in national wealth. —

This week on Upstream, Byrne Hobart discusses the potential impacts of the Department of Government Efficiency, insights from leaked OpenAI emails, Trump's and Elon Musk's policies and their economic implications, and the future of prediction markets in organizational decision-making. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/279fae71-9087-46b7-a2e6-b6e17d8fdf6b —

Byrne Hobart joins Jordan McGillis to discuss his book, Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation.

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Max Chiswick, a former professional poker player turned AI educator, to explore how poker intersects with decision making. They discuss how the online poker boom created unprecedented opportunities to study decision-making at scale and how computational advances have transformed both the game's theory and practice. They dig into how poker serves as a laboratory for studying decision-making under uncertainty, pattern recognition, and opponent modeling, while also examining the sometimes problematic incentives that emerge in both online gambling and AI development.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/ai-poker-max-chiswick/–Sponsor: CheckCheck is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.–Links:Max's website: https://maxchiswick.com/Max's startup for AI and Game Strategy: https://overbet.ai/The Expected Value Foundation & poker camp course: https://expectedvalue.org/Patrick's Bits about Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/–Twitter:@chisness@patio11-Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:26) Max's background and journey into poker(03:45) The credit card rewards game tangent(06:12) Why poker matters: reasoning and decision-making(07:49) The problem areas in the poker AI space(09:38) Poker as an assistive technology for reasoning(10:59) Online poker history(16:14) Understanding multitabling(21:14) Casino economics and gambling regulation(22:55) Sponsor: Check(26:32) PokerStars VIP program and professional incentives(29:47) Playing a million hands in a month(37:26) AI poker history and counterfactual regret minimization(43:35) Poker complexity(45:01) The impact of solvers on modern poker(45:52) Understanding poker game theory and decision trees(49:26) Recent developments in poker AI education(50:27) Teaching programmers to build poker bots(53:05) Wrap –Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network, the network behind Econ 102 with Noah Smith, The Riff with Byrne Hobart, and Turpentine VC. Turpentine also has a social network for top tech founders: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/

By popular demand, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart for a 3rd conversation to discuss Byrne's book "Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation." They explore how periods of irrational market enthusiasm often create lasting value despite their painful endings. Using examples from the 1990s fiber optic boom that enabled modern streaming to today's AI investment surge, they examine how even when investment manias end badly, they frequently pull forward crucial technological development that benefits society long-term. Byrne and Patrick weave through historical cases like Bell Labs to present day examples in crypto and energy infrastructure, revealing hidden cycles where speculative excess can drive genuine innovation.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/boom-busts-and-long-term-progress-with-byrne-hobart-2/–Sponsor: CheckCheck is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.–Links:Order Byrne Hobart's book Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation on Stripe Press / Bookshop / Amazon here: https://press.stripe.com/boomThe Diff Capital Gains The Reckoning by David Halberstam: https://www.amazon.com/Reckoning-David-Halberstam/dp/0380721473Austin Vernon on Fracking, Complex Systems Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0YDV1XyjUCM2RtuTcBGYH9?si=CDrPD3nNSP-MUV60qffglg–Twitter:@byrnehobart@patio11-Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:25) Discussing the book: Boom, Bubbles, and the End of Stagnation(01:08) Economic growth and productivity(04:42) Technological advancements and corporate R&D(07:31) The role of government and private sector(13:42) Sponsor: Check(14:57) Economic history and industrial evolution(20:12) Japanese industrial planning and efficiency(27:16) The dot-com boom and fiber optic investment(31:21) Bondholders vs. equity investors: A comparative analysis(32:32) Google's strategic fiber investments(32:56) The evolution of online video and YouTube's rise(35:22) The dot-com bubble and its aftermath(44:06) The housing bubble(49:39) Financial manias and reflexivity(52:23) The SaaS ecosystem and startup growth(54:58) Stripe and the evolution of online payments(01:00:22) Crypto(01:04:58) The value of currency and crypto(01:06:36) Exchange tokens and financial models(01:08:55) Crypto's impact on financial systems(01:10:41) The evolution of banking technology(01:13:18) Crypto regulations and financial freedom(01:17:28) Smart contracts and financial innovation(01:26:47) The role of AI in technological advancements(01:29:18) The future of energy: Geothermal and fracking(01:41:39) The journey of writing ‘Boom'(01:42:57) Wrap

This week on Upstream, we're releasing a conversation between Patrick McKenzie and Byrne Hobart where they navigate the compelling terrains of in-app purchases and restaurant economics. They dive into the monetization strategies of video games and the influence of food delivery platforms like DoorDash on pricing and menu designs and explore the bridge between finance, technology, and human behavior through airport currency exchange models and the emerging role of AI in economic data processing. —

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Erik Torenberg, investor and the media entrepreneur behind Turpentine, explore the evolving relationship between tech journalism and the industry it covers. They discuss how fictional portrayals of industries greatly inform how jobseekers understand those industries, and how the industries understand themselves. They cover the vacuum in quality tech reporting, the emergence of independent media companies, and industry heavyweights with massive followings. Patrick also brings up the phenomenon of Twitter/Slack crossovers, where coordinated social media action is used to influence internal company policies and public narratives. They examine how this dynamic, combined with economic pressures and ideological motivations, has led to increased groupthink in tech journalism. Expanding on themes covered in Kelsey Piper's episode of Complex Systems, this conversation makes more legible the important ways media affects tech, even though tech is arguably a more sophisticated industry – and why there is a need to move beyond simplistic narratives of "holding power accountable" to provide nuanced, informative coverage that helps people understand tech's impact on society.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/tech-media-erik-torenberg–Sponsors: WorkOS | CheckBuilding an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-NetworkCheck is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to https://checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.–Links:Bits About Money, “Fiction and Finance” https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/fiction-about-finance/Byrne Hobart's essay on The Social Network https://byrnehobart.medium.com/the-social-network-was-the-most-important-movie-of-all-time-9f91f66018d7Kelsey Piper on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/33rHTZVowaq76tCTaKJfRB –Twitter:@patio11@eriktorenberg–Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:27) Fiction and Finance: The power of narrative(01:41) The Social Network's impact on career choices(03:34) Cultural perceptions and entrepreneurship(06:04) Media influence and tech industry perception(11:01) The role of tech journalism(14:15) Social media's impact on journalism(19:39) Sponsors: WorkOS | Check(21:54) The intersection of media and tech(39:22) Public intellectualism in tech(57:40) Wrap–Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined again by Byrne Hobart, writer of The Diff, for a follow up conversation about “whales” – and so much more – across the gaming, aviation, software, hospitality and fast food industries. Patrick and Byrne also discuss their writing process, knowledge management, and how they use AI tools.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/byrne-hobart-whales-miscellany–Sponsors: Check | WorkOSCheck is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network–Links:The Diff thediff.coCapital Gains capitalgains.thediff.coByrne Hobart's book Boom: Bubbles and the End of StagnationKongregate Presentation: Video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7SDByLlCHw) Slides (https://blog.kongregate.com/dont-call-them-whales-f2p-spenders-and-virtual-value/)–Twitter:@patio11@byrnehobart–Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:45) Economics of video game currencies (02:56) Pricing strategies in mobile gaming (05:08) Monetization skew towards high-end players (08:08) VIP systems and casino host analogy (11:08) Whale behavior in casual games (15:03) Hyper-consuming outliers in other industries(19:09) Sponsors: WorkOS | Check(21:25) Hobbies and opportunity costs (23:01) Custom software for tech billionaires (26:30) Evolution of website development (29:55) Restaurant websites and delivery apps (40:17) McDonald's take rates(44:59) Restaurant groups(53:34) Tech company cafeterias and employee benefits (57:57) Google's business model and economic feedback loops (1:00:57) Early Google investment anecdote (1:02:16) Writing as a memory aid (1:04:46) Using ChatGPT for memory assistance (1:10:30) LLMs as writing and coding aids (1:13:34) Children's interaction with ChatGPT (1:18:11) Arguing with LLMs and using them for research (1:03:00) Wrap–Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/

Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg are joined by Omar Shams, the founder of Mutable AI, for a deep dive into Omar's great piece, The AI Organization. In this conversation, they explore the potential of AI to transform organizational productivity, the limitations of financial metrics in GDP, and AI's role in political processes and societal structures. This episode was recorded for Turpentine's show The Riff. Check it out for more like this: https://open.spotify.com/show/6rANlV54GCARLgMOtpkzKt —

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart to discuss Byrne's vantage point as writer of The Diff, a tech and finance newsletter. Byrne explains the toxicity of the 30-year mortgage, the dynamics of the finance newsletter ecosystem, how rationalist epistemics can be applied to hedge funds, and the joy of learning about an industry from scratch.Full transcript available here.–Sponsor: This podcast is sponsored by Check, the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.–Links:The Diff https://www.thediff.co/Capital Gains https://capitalgains.thediff.co/ Pre-order Byrne Hobart's book Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation https://www.amazon.com/Boom-Bubbles-Stagnation-Byrne-Hobart/dp/1953953476 Bits About Money https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/Referenced:The Railway Mania of 1860 Paper by Andrew Odlyzko https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4006745 Seeing Like a State by James C. Scott https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Like-State-Certain-Condition/dp/0300078153The Dead Pledge by Judge Earl Glock https://www.amazon.com/Dead-Pledge-Mortgage-1913-1939-Capitalism/dp/0231192533The Oral History of Travel's Greatest Acquisition Bookings.com https://skift.com/oral-history-of-booking-acquisition/–Twitter:@patio11@byrnehobart–Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:25) The 30-year mortgage is an intrinsically toxic product(04:46) Young households are the socially optimal holders of equities risk(10:19) The structure of private equity returns(14:18) Sponsor: Check(15:32) Meta-analysis of the finance newsletter space(19:54) Byrne's aspirations for The Diff(25:01) The origins of names(27:19) The epistemics of a hedge fund(34:26) Venture capital vs hedge funds(38:13) Understanding scrapers(41:20) How to learn about an industry from scratch(45:37) The business of online travel agencies(49:21) Wrap–Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.

Byrne Hobart, creator of the newsletter The Diff and Capital Gains, joins Erik Torenberg to discuss the intricate evolution of media industries. In this conversation, they delve into the comparative success of print and digital media, the economic transformation of the news sector, the disruption in media landscapes and the emerging scenarios in financial journalism.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Why so many "racists" at Manifest?, published by Austin on June 18, 2024 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Manifest 2024 is a festival that we organized last weekend in Berkeley. By most accounts, it was a great success. On our feedback form, the average response to "would you recommend to a friend" was a 9.0/10. Reviewers said nice things like "one of the best weekends of my life" and "dinners and meetings and conversations with people building local cultures so achingly beautiful they feel almost like dreams" and "I've always found tribalism mysterious, but perhaps that was just because I hadn't yet found my tribe." Arnold Brooks running a session on Aristotle's Metaphysics. More photos of Manifest here. However, a recent post on The Guardian and review on the EA Forum highlight an uncomfortable fact: we invited a handful of controversial speakers to Manifest, whom these authors call out as "racist". Why did we invite these folks? First: our sessions and guests were mostly not controversial - despite what you may have heard Here's the schedule for Manifest on Saturday: (The largest & most prominent talks are on the left. Full schedule here.) And here's the full list of the 57 speakers we featured on our website: Nate Silver, Luana Lopes Lara, Robin Hanson, Scott Alexander, Niraek Jain-sharma, Byrne Hobart, Aella, Dwarkesh Patel, Patrick McKenzie, Chris Best, Ben Mann, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Cate Hall, Paul Gu, John Phillips, Allison Duettmann, Dan Schwarz, Alex Gajewski, Katja Grace, Kelsey Piper, Steve Hsu, Agnes Callard, Joe Carlsmith, Daniel Reeves, Misha Glouberman, Ajeya Cotra, Clara Collier, Samo Burja, Stephen Grugett, James Grugett, Javier Prieto, Simone Collins, Malcolm Collins, Jay Baxter, Tracing Woodgrains, Razib Khan, Max Tabarrok, Brian Chau, Gene Smith, Gavriel Kleinwaks, Niko McCarty, Xander Balwit, Jeremiah Johnson, Ozzie Gooen, Danny Halawi, Regan Arntz-Gray, Sarah Constantin, Frank Lantz, Will Jarvis, Stuart Buck, Jonathan Anomaly, Evan Miyazono, Rob Miles, Richard Hanania, Nate Soares, Holly Elmore, Josh Morrison. Judge for yourself; I hope this gives a flavor of what Manifest was actually like. Our sessions and guests spanned a wide range of topics: prediction markets and forecasting, of course; but also finance, technology, philosophy, AI, video games, politics, journalism and more. We deliberately invited a wide range of speakers with expertise outside of prediction markets; one of the goals of Manifest is to increase adoption of prediction markets via cross-pollination. Okay, but there sure seemed to be a lot of controversial ones… I was the one who invited the majority (~40/60) of Manifest's special guests; if you want to get mad at someone, get mad at me, not Rachel or Saul or Lighthaven; certainly not the other guests and attendees of Manifest. My criteria for inviting a speaker or special guest was roughly, "this person is notable, has something interesting to share, would enjoy Manifest, and many of our attendees would enjoy hearing from them". Specifically: Richard Hanania - I appreciate Hanania's support of prediction markets, including partnering with Manifold to run a forecasting competition on serious geopolitical topics and writing to the CFTC in defense of Kalshi. (In response to backlash last year, I wrote a post on my decision to invite Hanania, specifically) Simone and Malcolm Collins - I've enjoyed their Pragmatist's Guide series, which goes deep into topics like dating, governance, and religion. I think the world would be better with more kids in it, and thus support pronatalism. I also find the two of them to be incredibly energetic and engaging speakers IRL. Jonathan Anomaly - I attended a talk Dr. Anomaly gave about the state-of-the-art on polygenic embryonic screening. I was very impressed that something long-considered scien...

What are the facts around Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX about which all parties agree? What was the nature of Will's relationship with SBF? What things, in retrospect, should've been red flags about Sam or FTX? Was Sam's personality problematic? Did he ever really believe in EA principles? Does he lack empathy? Or was he on the autism spectrum? Was he naive in his application of utilitarianism? Did EA intentionally install SBF as a spokesperson, or did he put himself in that position of his own accord? What lessons should EA leaders learn from this? What steps should be taken to prevent it from happening again? What should EA leadership look like moving forward? What are some of the dangers around AI that are not related to alignment? Should AI become the central (or even the sole) focus of the EA movement?William MacAskill is an associate professor in philosophy at the University of Oxford. At the time of his appointment, he was the youngest associate professor of philosophy in the world. He also cofounded the nonprofits Giving What We Can, the Centre for Effective Altruism, and 80,000 Hours, which together have moved over $300 million to effective charities. He's the author of What We Owe The Future, Doing Good Better, and Moral Uncertainty.Further reading:Episode 133: The FTX catastrophe (with Byrne Hobart, Vipul Naik, Maomao Hu, Marcus Abramovich, and Ozzie Gooen) — Our previous podcast episode about what happened in the FTX disaster"Who is Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) really, and how could he have done what he did? – three theories and a lot of evidence" — Spencer's essay about SBF's personalityWhy They Do It: Inside the Mind of the White-Collar Criminal by Eugene SoltesStaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerRyan Kessler — Audio EngineerUri Bram — FactotumWeAmplify — TranscriptionistsAlexandria D. — Research and Special Projects AssistantMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny Robotswowamusiczapsplat.comAffiliatesClearer ThinkingGuidedTrackMind EasePositlyUpLift[Read more]

Byrne Hobart has a Substack following of over 50,000 subscribers, consisting of some of the smartest people in Silicon Valley — startup founders, venture capitalists, hedge fund managers, you name it. Come learn how he produces high-density, high-insight ideas so consistently.  SPEAKER LINKS: Newsletter: https://www.thediff.co/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/byrnehobart WRITE OF PASSAGE:  Want to learn more about the next class Write of Passage? Click here: https://take.writeofpassage.school/writing-sprints PODCAST LINKS:  Website: https://writeofpassage.school/how-i-write/ Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-i-write/id1700171470 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2DjMSboniFAeGA8v9NpoPv YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidPerellChannel/videos Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, Nathan chats with Josh Albrecht, CTO of Imbue. They discuss how to create agents for reasoning, reliability, and robustness. If you need an ecommerce platform, check out our sponsor Shopify: https://shopify.com/cognitive for a $1/month trial period.  RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Every week investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today's major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Subscribe to “The Riff” with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRiffPodcast SPONSORS:  Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. Shopify powers 10% of ALL eCommerce in the US. And Shopify's the global force behind Allbirds, Rothy's, and Brooklinen, and 1,000,000s of other entrepreneurs across 175 countries.From their all-in-one e-commerce platform, to their in-person POS system – wherever and whatever you're selling, Shopify's got you covered. With free Shopify Magic, sell more with less effort by whipping up captivating content that converts – from blog posts to product descriptions using AI. Sign up for $1/month trial period: https://shopify.com/cognitive MasterClass https://masterclass.com/zen get two memberships for the price of 1 Learn from the best to become your best. Learn how to negotiate a raise with Chris Voss or manage your relationships with Esther Perel. Boost your confidence and find practical takeaways you can apply to your life and at work. If you own a business or are a team leader, use MasterClass to empower and create future-ready employees and leaders. Moment of Zen listeners will get two memberships for the price of one at https://masterclass.com/zen Omneky is an omnichannel creative generation platform that lets you launch hundreds of thousands of ad iterations that actually work customized across all platforms, with a click of a button. Omneky combines generative AI and real-time advertising data. Mention "Cog Rev" for 10% off. X/SOCIAL @labenz (Nathan) @eriktorenberg (Erik) @CogRev_Podcast TIMESTAMPS: (00:00:00) – Episode Preview (00:07:14) – What does it mean to be a research company? (00:10:25) – How is the reasoning landscape these days and how might it evolve? (00:11:03) – Data quality is highly important (00:21:15) – What's the difference between good features and a good world model? (00:27:31) – The impact of new modalities on reasoning (00:29:15) – How much can reasoning and knowledge be separated? (00:45:13) – Imbue demo and are they building their own LLMs or using others? (00:49:37) – Does Imbue have a deal with Nvidia? (00:57:48) – Carbs framework (01:12:57) – Imbue's involvement with policy and and AI safety (01:16:23) – Takeaways from AI Safety Summit and Biden's Order

Dan Romero and Erik Torenberg discuss their takes on why liberals become conservatives, diversity in tech, and debrief the OpenAI debacle that happened this past week. – SPONSORS: SHOPIFY | MASTERCLASS | NETSUITE SHOPIFY: https://shopify.com/momentofzen for a $1/month trial period Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. Shopify powers 10% of all e-commerce in the US. And Shopify's the global force behind Allbirds, Rothy's, and Brooklinen, and 1,000,000s of other entrepreneurs across 175 countries. From their all-in-one e-commerce platform, to their in-person POS system – wherever and whatever you're selling, Shopify's got you covered. With free Shopify Magic, sell more with less effort by whipping up captivating content that converts – from blog posts to product descriptions using AI. Sign up for $1/month trial period: https://shopify.com/momentofzen MASTERCLASS: https://masterclass.com/zen get two memberships for the price of 1 Learn from the best to become your best. Learn how to negotiate a raise with Chris Voss or manage your relationships with Esther Perel. Boost your confidence and find practical takeaways you can apply to your life and at work. If you own a business or are a team leader, use MasterClass to empower and create future-ready employees and leaders. Moment of Zen listeners will get two memberships for the price of one at https://masterclass.com/zen NETSUITE: http://netsuite.com/zen NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you're looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite: http://netsuite.com/zen and download your own customized KPI checklist. – Sign up for our newsletter to receive the full shownotes: https://momentofzen.substack.com/ –  X / TWITTER: @dwr (Dan) @eriktorenberg (Erik) @moz_podcast @TurpentineMedia – RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  Every week investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today's major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Subscribe to “The Riff” with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg: https://link.chtbl.com/theriff – TIMESTAMPS: h/t @zohaibaallii on YouTube (00:43) New Argentinian president and rise of global populism (06:21) The appeal of populist leaders to the working class (15:07) Policy differences between Biden and Trump administrations (24:11) Does Trump poses a threat to democracy? (30:55) Is the political right or left has been more authoritarian? (36:53) Corporate "norms" under Biden vs Trump (43:45) Predictions on 2024 presidential election (50:33) Recap of the OpenAI / Sam Altman saga (01:00:00) The "feminine" nature of the OpenAI situation (01:10:30) On diversity and inclusion (01:22:20) On inequality between groups in society (01:25:20) Aspirations vs. reality of equality

David Hanrahan is the Chief People Officer of Flare and a highly respected people leader. David joins Kelli and Nolan for an unfiltered discussion on pushing for high performance in your company, normalizing scorecards, and what qualities separates the best HR leaders. If you're looking for HR software that drives performance, check out Lattice https://www.lattice.com/hrheretics – SPONSORS: Lattice | Continuum ✅ Discover HR software that drives performance with Lattice: https://www.lattice.com/hrheretics High performance and great culture should never be at odds; they're better together. With Lattice People Management Platform, companies efficiently run people programs that create enviable cultures where employees want to do their best work. Serving 1000s of customers of all sizes. Learn why companies from Slack to the LA Dodgers choose Lattice. https://www.lattice.com/hrheretics ✅ Hire Fractional Executives with Continuum using this link: https://bit.ly/40hlRa9 Have you ever had a negative experience hiring executives? Continuum connects executives and senior operators to venture-backed tech companies for fractional and full-time roles. You can post any executive-level role to Continuum's marketplace and search through our database of world-class, vetted leaders. There is no hidden cost, you only pay the person you hire. And you can cancel at any time. Joincontinuum.com – RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Every week investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today's major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Subscribe to “The Riff” with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg: https://link.chtbl.com/theriff – KEEP UP WITH DAVID, NOLAN, + KELLI ON LINKEDIN David: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidhanrahan/ Nolan: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nolan-church/ Kelli: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kellidragovich/ – TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Intro (03:00) On People leaders getting a little soft and being burned out (05:00) David 20+ years vs David 10+ years experience (07:35) The gap between what employers and employees are expecting (10:55) Putting together deviations of different generations and tips on how to get them coalesced (14:25) David's view on what high performance is (21:10) Sponsor - Lattice | Continuum (22:55) David's advice on company transparency with practices and organizations (26:00) On normalizing scorecards (27:24) On unlocking higher levels of performance (30:00) David's insights on compensation and how is he advising on compensation (34:10) Salary increase: manager's discretion versus the model (35:30) On making sure a manager delivers the right message to top performers (37:50) How David assesses a people leader? (41:30) Where people leaders fail and how do you get that ship back on the right track? (44:00) Staying sane while aligning with all the competing interests in a company (48:50) David's advice for people having a hard time trying to get the Head of People role (51:15) David on continuous learning and staying sharp (52:30) Staying aligned with a company's founder

This is a bonus episode for Econ 102 listeners of The Riff with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg, recorded on Monday night 11/20, discussing the evolving story of Sam Altman's ousting at OpenAI and new home at Microsoft, what OpenAI's next pivot could look like, the new competitive landscape for the big AI players, and Effective Altruism's role in this drama. Need Soc 2 compliance? Get 20% off your first year of Secureframe by mentioning "The Riff" during your free demo: https://secureframe.com/riff The Riff is a new podcast from the Turpentine podcast network. Subscribe to The Riff: https://link.chtbl.com/theriff -- Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE | SECUREFRAME Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they've found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you've never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don't just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It's free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you're looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. Secureframe: the only compliance automation platform with AI capabilities that help customers speed up cloud remediation and security questionnaires. Get 20% off your first year of Secureframe by mentioning "The Riff" during your free demo: https://secureframe.com/riff -- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: LIVE PLAYERS Join host Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg as they analyze the mindsets of today's most intriguing business leaders, investors, and innovators through the lens of their bold actions and contrarian worldviews. You'll come away with a deeper understanding of the development of technology, business, political power, culture and more. LIsten and subscribe everywhere you get your podcasts: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers. -- LINKS: Byrne's writing: https://thediff.co -- X / TWITTER: @eriktorenberg @byrnehobart -- TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Introduction from Erik (00:50) Non obvious thoughts about governance and legal structures (03:50) Could the board have found out something about Sam? (05:00) Tech's online coordination and choosing sides (06:20) Why haven't the OpenAI board shared their reasoning? (12:20) Are they going to bring Sam back? (15:20) What should OpenAI's pivot be? (17:35) Sponsor: Secureframe (18:40) Analyzing Microsoft's moves and the sweetheart deal (22:00) Satya's succession plans (25:05) OpenAI's unique governance structure (28:10) Why Byrne is long on Microsoft (36:00) What explains Microsoft's turnaround? (38:15) Meta and Google (44:20) Which of these companies Byrne would short: Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft (46:20) Was this a coup from the Effective Altruism movement?

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss Noah's travel reflections from Singapore, the recent San Francisco cleanup, and the dystopian routes of progressivism. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102 – Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they've found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you've never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don't just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It's free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you're looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. – Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Odd Lots is a Bloomberg podcast hosted by Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway. Each week they speak with the perfect guest to explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. https://www.bloomberg.com/oddlots – RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  Every week investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today's major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Subscribe to “The Riff” with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg: https://link.chtbl.com/theriff – RECOMMENDED PODCAST: LIVE PLAYERS Join host Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg as they analyze the mindsets of today's most intriguing business leaders, investors, and innovators through the lens of their bold actions and contrarian worldviews. You'll come away with a deeper understanding of the development of technology, business, political power, culture and more. LIsten and subscribe everywhere you get your podcasts: https://link.chtbl.com/liveplayers. – TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Episode Preview (01:53) Noah's Travel Reflection (03:58) Singapore's Secret to Solar Punk (07:33-18:08) Policies we can learn from Singapore (10:06) Healthcare (11:33) Housing Policy (16:35) Singapore and El Salvador's Strict Crime Policies (18:09) Sponsor: GIVEWELL (19:35) San Francisco's Sudden Cleanup (22:00) Government and Social Media and AI (31:00) Sponsors: DAFFY and NETSUITE (33:22) Progressive Dystopias (39:47) Immigration vs Gentification (43:38) Progressive Education (46:47) Why Liberalism is Losing the Information War (51:50) Banning Tik Tok (57:32) Pronouncing Xi Jing Ping Correctly

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the new geopolitical dynamics in Asia and the Middle East, why demographics may mean waning conflict, and take a dive into Ireland's wealth. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join: https://www.daffy.org/econ102 –  Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the highest impact opportunities they've found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you've never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to https://givewell.org and pick “Podcast” + enter Econ 102 at checkout. Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don't just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It's free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you're looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. –  Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Odd Lots is a Bloomberg podcast hosted by Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway. Each week they speak with the perfect guest to explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. https://www.bloomberg.com/oddlots – RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  Every week investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today's major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Subscribe to “The Riff” with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg: https://link.chtbl.com/theriff – LINKS: - Noah Smith, How Ireland Got So Rich https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-ireland-got-so-rich - Noah Smith, The Middle East is Getting Older: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-middle-east-is-getting-older – X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) – TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Episode Preview (01:47) Noah's reflections from the Kilkenomics Festival ​​(02:44) Why and how Ireland got rich (11:14) What is the legacy of Brexit? (13:16) Pro and counter arguments for Brexit (15:27) Sponsors: GiveWell | Daffy (18:10) Noah on the 2nd Cold War (24:20) Why Asia is more important to the US than the Middle East (29:57) Sponsor: NetSuite (31:04) Iran in the Israel-Gaza conflict (34:45) Predictions for the next decade in Middle East (41:17) On fertility rates  (45:51) Where would Israel be in 10 years? (50:13) The endless pressures on Israel (51:07) What would need to be true for Noah to be bullish on Israel? (57:08) Countering the collaboration between Gaza and Israel

Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the state of the economy, whether tech and the VC ecosystem are doing well or facing a 'rolling recession', and unpack assumptions about wealth in the United States. Make informed decision for high impact donations with GiveWell, which is offering Econ 102 listeners donation matching up to $100. To claim your match, go to givewell.org ➡️ pick “Podcast” enter Econ 102 at checkout. – Sponsors: GIVEWELL | DAFFY | NETSUITE Have you ever wondered where your donation could have the most impact? GiveWell has now spent over 15 years researching charitable organizations and only directs funding to the HIGHEST-IMPACT opportunities they've found in global health and poverty alleviation. Make informed decisions about high-impact giving. If you've never donated through GiveWell before, you can have your donation matched up to $100 before the end of the year, or as long as matching funds last. To claim your match, go to givewell.org and pick “Podcast” and enter Econ 102 at checkout. Daffy is the most modern and accessible donor-advised fund, making it easier to put money aside for charity. You can make your tax-deductible contributions all at once or set aside a little each week or month. And you don't just have to donate cash, you can easily contribute stocks, ETFs, or crypto. Plus, you never have to track receipts from your donations again. It's free to get started and Econ 102 listeners get $25 towards the charity of their choice. Daffy is offering Econ 102 listeners a free $25 for the charity of their choice when they join Daffy https://www.daffy.org/econ102 NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you're looking for an ERP platform head to NetSuite ✅ http://netsuite.com/102 and download your own customized KPI checklist. – Econ 102 is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. To learn more: www.turpentine.co – RECOMMENDED PODCAST: New Show: Age of Miracles Age of Miracles is a narrative show that explores the complex industries that will play an important role in creating an abundant future for humanity. Every season, host Packy McCormick brings in an expert cohost to go deep into the possibilities and challenges of making “sci-fi” dreams our reality in our lifetimes. The first season starts at the root of all progress and prosperity: unlocking 10x more clean and reliable energy by splitting and fusing atoms themselves—going nuclear. Episodes 1 and 2 drop October 27th Subscribe to the podcast: https://link.chtbl.com/ageofmiracles Listen on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@age-of-miracles/videos – RECOMMENDED PODCAST:  Every week investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today's major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Subscribe to “The Riff” with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg: https://link.chtbl.com/theriff – X / TWITTER: @noahpinion (Noah) @eriktorenberg (Erik) – TIMESTAMPS: (00:00) Episode Preview (01:05) The Rolling Recession? (03:55) When Are Venture Capitalists gonna get rich again? (06:15) Will rate cuts go down? (08:15) Factory Model of Venture Capital (10:20) Crypto's correlation to the markets (14:15) Sector specific shocks screwing the economy (16:50) Sponsors: GiveWell | Daffy (20:00) The temperature metaphor in economics (22:41) Regular Americans are getting richer (25:02) How accurate are the measurement of inequality statistics in terms of reflecting true inequality? (30:15) Why inequality might be good in economics (36:55) What mechanisms led to inequality going down (41:00) Skyrocketing prices and poor regulation of markets (47:00) Piketty's arguments on inequality