Podcasts about complex systems

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and returning guest Ross Rheingans-Yoo discuss the strategic advantages of starting a podcast, particularly for professionals seeking to build trust, expand their networks, and support fundraising efforts. They explore the nuts and bolts of podcast production models, recording logistics, transcript creation, and how to make the experience frictionless for high-value guests. Ross shares his thought process around his newly-launched show Development and Research while Patrick gives a behind the scenes look at the makings of Complex Systems. –Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/capitalists-guide-to-podcasting-with-ross-rheingans-yoo–Sponsor:  MercuryThis episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC.–Recommended in this episode:Development and Research Podcast: https://developmentandresearch.bio/ Podcast Twitter feed: @DevAndResearchRoss & Ricki's Trading Bootcamp June 3-5: https://trading.camp/complex Ross' first appearance on Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4GiO0KYqxJNCIdltCyhN6mRicki Heicklen on Complex Systems (our first episode!): https://open.spotify.com/episode/11kEUYRn4gXZGju232hzcg–Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:18) The power of podcasting for venture capitalists(03:09) Building trust through voice (07:11) Podcast production models (16:38) Recording and equipment essentials (23:05) Sponsor: Mercury (24:18) Post-production and transcripts (32:22) Advertising vs. User experience (33:28) Creating standalone artifacts (34:20) The power of video clips (35:22) Challenges in podcast distribution (42:12) The role of guests in podcasts (47:12) Pre-recording preparation (49:22) Recording session best practices (54:22) The value of silence in conversations (56:38) Launching and growing a podcast (59:18) Trading bootcamp (1:02:27) Wrap

Send us a textDr. Sui Huang, MD, PhD is a Professor at the Institute for Systems Biology ( ISB - https://isbscience.org/people/sui-huang-md-phd/?tab=biography ) where his lab is focused on studying how gene regulatory networks control gene activity to create stable cellular states, such as different cell types, and how these states transition into different lineages in both healthy and diseased conditions.Dr. Huang is a molecular and cell biologist with a strong background in theoretical biology and has devoted much of his research to understanding the very phenomenon of cancer from a complex systems perspective. Before joining the ISB in fall 2011, Dr. Huang held faculty positions at the University of Calgary (Institute of Biocomplexity and Informatics), where he helped establish biocomplexity as a discipline in research and teaching, and at Harvard Medical School (Children's Hospital) where he obtained first experimental evidence for the existence of high-dimensional attractors in mammalian gene regulatory networks.Dr. Huang grew up in Geneva and Zurich. He received his MD degree from the University of Zurich and obtained thereafter, as the first recipient of the PhD-Program-for-Physicians Award of the Swiss National Science Foundation, his PhD in molecular biology and physical chemistry for work on interferons. As a postdoctoral fellow at Children's Hospital Boston he investigated tumor angiogenesis and cell growth control. In that period he also studied dynamical systems through his affiliation with the New England Complex Systems Institute.Important Episode Link - "The end of the genetic paradigm of cancer" - PLOS Biologyhttps://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3003052#SuiHuang #InstituteForSystemsBiology #Interferon #Angiogenesis #AttractorStates #Epigenetics #Cancer #Oncology #TumorMicroenvironment #DonaldIngber #ConradWaddington #Organogenesis #Morphogenesis #LeeHood #BeatriceMintz #ProgressPotentialAndPossibilities #IraPastor #Podcast #Podcaster #Podcasting #ViralPodcast #STEM #Innovation #Science #Technology #ResearchSupport the show

How to make the perfect Cacio e pepe, according to science Guest: Dr. Ivan Di Terlizzi, Postdoctoral Researcher at the Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems and Lead Author of the Study Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ken Sim slams BC for stalling on Park Board overhaul Guest: Ken Sim, Mayor of Vancouver Why did India launch missiles at Pakistan? Guest: Michael Kugelman, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada How to make the perfect Cacio e pepe, according to science Guest: Dr. Ivan Di Terlizzi, Postdoctoral Researcher at the Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems and Lead Author of the Study There are 2 types of happiness, which one are you? Guest: Emorie Beck, Prof of Psychology at UC Davis Should Surrey hire a municipal healthcare administrator? Guest: Linda Annis, Surrey First City Councillor Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

George Firican interviews Dr. Chris Kulp, Professor of Physics specializing in non-linear dynamics and machine learning. The discussion delves into how machine learning is revolutionizing both natural and social sciences by identifying patterns in massive data sets that humans might overlook. Dr. Kulp also shares his insights on applying mathematical analysis to social systems, the challenges and benefits of AI in complex systems like economics, and his experience in interdisciplinary collaboration. Additionally, viewers will learn about Dr. Kulp's novel 'Lost Origins,' which integrates scientific concepts within a compelling narrative, highlighting the power of creative storytelling to make advanced scientific topics accessible to a broader audience. The episode concludes with advice for aspiring researchers looking to bridge science and machine learning in their careers.

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Mikey Dickerson to discuss the complex realities behind government software projects. Mikey shares insights from leading the healthcare.gov rescue effort and founding the United States Digital Service, explaining how procurement processes create requirements through committee decision-making without market-based feedback loops. They explore how government systems handle software development differently than industry, with Mikey noting that the issues are less about individual competence and more about systemic incentives that reward risk aversion. The conversation covers the challenges of "modernization" efforts, the loss of organizational management knowledge over decades, and reflection on when and how technologists might effectively contribute to public service. –Full transcript available here: –Sponsor:  MercuryThis episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC.–Recommended in this episode: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/fixing-government-technology-with-mikey-dickerson/Bureaucracy by James Q. Wilson: https://www.amazon.com/Bureaucracy-Government-Agencies-Basic-Classics/dp/0465007856 Movie: The Pentagon Wars https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Pentagon_Wars Mikey Dickerson's company Layer Aleph: https://layeraleph.com/ Marina Nitze's article, I tried to fix government tech for years: https://reason.com/2025/02/13/i-tried-to-fix-government-tech-for-years-im-fed-up/Complex Systems with Dan Davies https://open.spotify.com/episode/5QKxzgumJXSQuaWCmYAoM9?si=uQWgAx1iSzGm5iCUBWei8A Complex Systems with Dave Guarino https://open.spotify.com/episode/0UlTIRosmjtvpcdHQ7t2tK?si=MlUqO3uWRie1E_GRQ5D7jg –Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:24) Government software procurement(06:02) Fighter planes and requirements(08:37) Software development cycles(11:37) Deadline challenges(12:18) California vaccine scheduling(16:15) Pandemic priorities(17:27) Sponsor: Mercury(18:40) Government employee competence(22:30) Government pay scales(25:56) IRS modernization reports(27:48) System modernization plans(34:33) Healthcare.gov lessons(40:29) Feedback loops in civil service(44:09) Legislative expertise(46:49) Applied mathematics(47:57) Loss of knowledge(49:28) Tour of duty recommendation(53:06) Wrap

In the latest episode of Experts in Sport, Dr Luke Roberts, author of Leading Schools and Sustaining Innovation: How to Think Big and Differently in Complex Systems, joins host Martin Foster to discuss systems change.If you've been involved in the sport, physical activity, health, education, business, or any other sector, you'll likely have heard people talk about systems change. You may have seen attempts to create change, but more often than not, the outcomes don't match expectations.In today's podcast, we explore what systems change really means. We begin by defining the concept and discussing the common challenges people face when trying to bring about meaningful change, using real-world examples. We then shift focus to what is required to create and sustain systems change over time.We hope this episode inspires anyone looking to make a positive impact and become a systems change leader of the future.Intros: 0:00What is Systems Change?: 3:42Purpose of the system: 10:32Examples: 15:45Systems Mapping: 29:32Getting the system ready for change: 36:00Maintain and Sustain: 42:23Changing the icing not the cake: 45:35What's next?: 52:24

The third podcast episode from TRUUD explores the complexity of achieving long-term, lasting change within urban development to foster healthier lives. Host Andres Kelly discusses with Dr Krista Bondy, University of Stirling, and Dr Neil Carhart, University of Bristol, how current systems struggle to address interconnected challenges, often leaving practitioners feeling powerless. The conversation emphasises the necessity of an interdisciplinary approach and systems thinking to understand the various influencing factors and overcome short-term perspectives. This episode investigates how to create interventions that are sustainable and prioritise health and equity for current and future generations, suggesting a need to reconsider societal values and decision-making processes.Funded by the UK Prevention Research Partnership which aims to reduce non-communicable diseases such as cancers, type-2 diabetes, obesity, mental ill-health and respiratory illnesses, TRUUD is providing evidence and tools for policy-makers in government and industry.Find more at the TRUUD website: https://truud.ac.uk/Recommended reading from episodeKrista Bondy:Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart Animals Are? by Frans de WaalJustice and the Politics of Indifference by Iris Marion YoungNeil Carhart:Thinking in Systems by Donella MeadowsAndrew Kelly:The Good Ancestor: How to Think Long Term in a Short Term World by Roman KrznaricMusic credit: New York London Tokyo by Petrenj MusicProduced by Beeston Media.

Die Behörde des US-Verteidigungsministeriums für Forschungsförderung beklagt in einer aktuellen Ausschreibung, dass das Verhalten der Bevölkerung trotz Auswertung riesiger Datenmassen noch nicht völlig vorhersehbar ist. Private Unternehmen sollen helfen.Ein Kommentar von Norbert Häring.DARPA, die Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Behörde für Spitzenforschungsprojekte der Verteidigung), ist die Abteilung des Pentagon, die spitzentechnologische Projekte der privaten Wirtschaft fördert, die für das Militär von Interesse sind — mit einem jährlichen Etat von mehreren Milliarden Dollar.Eine aktuelle Einladung an Unternehmen, sich um DARPA-Förderung zu bewerben, hat es in sich. Der schöne Titel MAGICS steht für „Methodological Advancements for Generalizable Insights into Complex Systems“, auf deutsch etwa: Methodologische Fortschritte in Richtung verallgemeinerungsfähiger Einsichten in komplexe Systeme. Die am 8. April veröffentlichte Ausschreibung DARPA-EA-25-02-05 wird (wohl etwas dauerhafter) in Kurzform im Magazin Military-Aerospace Electronics beschrieben.Die gute Nachricht für uns liegt in der einleitenden Feststellung der DARPA, dass sich die „Annahme und Hoffnung“ bisher nicht erfüllt hat, „dass die explosionsartige Zunahme digitaler Datenströme (z. B. soziale Medien, Kaufverhalten, Verkehrsdynamik usw.) in Verbindung mit leistungsfähigen Werkzeugen des Maschinenlernens es ermöglichen werde, das Verhalten einer Bevölkerung verlässlich vorherzusagen. Das Problem für die Militärs liegt darin, dass es sich bei menschlichen Gesellschaften um "komplexe, dynamische, sich entwickelnde Systeme“ handelt.Die schlechte Nachricht besteht darin, dass das Pentagon entschlossen ist, dieses Problem zu lösen. Das US-Militär strebt ausweislich dieser Ausschreibung die vollständige Vorhersagbarkeit und damit Steuerbarkeit der Bevölkerung der USA und wohl auch anderer Länder an.Übersetzt in verständliche Sprache besteht das Hindernis darin, dass es sich bei Gesellschaften (noch) nicht um soziale Maschinen handelt, in denen das gegenseitige aufeinander Einwirken und Zusammenwirken der Teile so reglementiert ist, dass das Ergebnis vorhersehbar ist. Stattdessen handelt es sich um organische Systeme, die sich auf prinzipiell unvorhersehbare Weise entwickeln, weil die Individuen so viele Handlungsweisen zur freien Verfügung haben, dass ihr Zusammenwirken selbst mit den leistungsfähigsten Computern und größten Datenmengen nicht auszurechnen ist.Eine problematische Handlungsmöglichkeit der Individuen liegt darin, mit ihrem Handeln darauf zu reagieren, was diejenigen, die ihr Verhalten messen und prognostizieren wollen, anstellen. Ein anderes Problem entsteht daraus, dass die Menschen ihr Denken und Verhalten ändern können. Zusammenfassend beschreibt DARPA die Forschungsfrage so:...hier weiterlesen: https://apolut.net/das-pentagon-sucht-unternehmen-zur-perfektionierung-der-bevolkerungskontrolle-von-norbert-haring/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they revisit arguments about free trade, and discuss updates on tariff negotiations, export controls, the new AI cold war, NVIDIA H20 chip ban, rare earth ban, DeepSeek, Tesla, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(02:15) Complex Systems(06:00) Tariff Negotiations & Free Trade(23:19) Export Controls: AI War, H20 & Rare Earth Ban(42:29) New AI Cold War & Zero Sum Game(52:37) $TSLA & Market CheckShow Notes:Financial Times - US rare earth champion faces trade war test after tariffs halt China salesCNBC - U.S. chip controls will benefit China's Nvidia rivals like Huawei: AnalystsProject Syndicate - Trump's $16 Trillion Trade Blind SpotNYTimes - I Just Saw the Future. It Was Not in America (Thomas L. Friedman)Ezra Klein Podcast feat. Thomas FriedmanJohn Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024Reuters - China hits back at US tariffs with export controls on key rare earthsNYTimes - Nvidia Says U.S. Will Restrict Sales of More of Its A.I. Chips to ChinaAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcapBill Gurley @bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2pod

Dr. Amato is a biological anthropologist studying the influence of gut microbes on host ecology and evolution. Her research examines how changes in the gut microbiota impact host nutrition, energetics, and health. She uses non-human primates as models for studying host-gut microbe interactions in selective environments and for providing comparative insight into the evolution of the human gut microbiota. Her main foci are understanding how the gut microbiome may buffer hosts during periods of nutritional stress and how the gut microbiome programs normal inter-specific differences in host metabolism. In this realm, she is also interested in global variation in the human gut microbiome and its implications for local human adaptation. Dr. Amato obtained her A.B. in Biology from Dartmouth College and her Ph.D. in Ecology, Evolution and Conservation Biology from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. She completed a postdoc at the University of Colorado Boulder. She joined the Department of Anthropology in 2015. She is also affiliated with the Interdisciplinary Biological Sciences Graduate Program and sits on the Executive Committee of the Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems. Dr. Amato is the President of the Midwest Primate Interest Group, an Associate Editor at Microbiome, an Editorial Board member at Folia Primatologica, and a Fellow for the Canadian Institute of Advanced Research's ‘Humans and the Microbiome' Program. ------------------------------ Find the paper discussed in this episode: Mallott, E., Kuthyar, S., Lee, W., … & Amato, K. R. (2024). The primate gut microbiota contributes to interspecific differences in host metabolism. Microbial genomics, https://doi.org/10.1099/mgen.0.001322 ------------------------------ Contact the Sausage of Science Podcast and Human Biology Association: Facebook: facebook.com/groups/humanbiologyassociation/, Website: humbio.org, Twitter: @HumBioAssoc Chris Lynn, Co-Host. Website: cdlynn.people.ua.edu/, E-mail: cdlynn@ua.edu, Twitter:@Chris_Ly Cristina Gildee, Guest Co-Host, HBA Junior Fellow, SoS producer. Website: cristinagildee.org, E-mail: cgildee@uw.edu, Twitter:@CristinaGildee Anahi Ruderman, SoS Co-Producer, HBA Junior Fellow. E-mail: aniruderman@gmail.com, Twitter: @ani_ruderman

Modern content systems are complex and abstract, presenting problems for managers who want to understand how their content is performing. At Autogram, Jeff Eaton and Karen McGrane have developed a content observability framework to address this complexity.  Their framework evaluates the composition, quality, health, and effectiveness of content programs to help enterprises measure the return on their content investment. https://ellessmedia.com/csi/jeff-eaton-2/

We live in a complex world. However, as humans, we are accustomed to finding answers by simplifying this complexity. But what do we do when simple models fail to answer the questions of complex systems? What are the methods to understand complex systems? What happens when we start looking at the world with the lens of complexity? We had a lot of fun discussing this topic with our guest Suri Venkatachalam, who is a Scientist and an Entrepreneur. Join us on this masterclass on complex systems.We discuss:* How to define Complex Systems?* We are surrounded by complexity* How do we study Complex Systems?* Complicated vs Complex Systems* Attributes of Complex Systems* Complexity in Nature* How to look at the de-extinction of the Dire Wolf?* Optimism towards handling complexity* How to look at AI from the complexity lens* RecommendationsAlso, please note that Puliyabaazi is now available on Youtube with video.Read more:Book | Commanding Hope: The Power We Have to Renew a World in Peril by Thomas Homer-DixonBook | Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World by J. Doyne FarmerBook | A Crude Look at the Whole: The Science of Complex Systems in Business, Life, and Society by John H. MillerBook | At Home in the Universe: The Search for the Laws of Self-Organization and Complexity by Stuart A. KauffmanBook | Complexity: A Guided Tour by Melanie MitchellRelated Puliyabaazi:लोकनीति में जटिलता को कैसे समझें? Complexity theory for Public PolicyIf you have any questions for the guest or feedback for us, please comment here or write to us at puliyabaazi@gmail.com. If you like our work, please subscribe and share this Puliyabaazi with your friends, family and colleagues.Website: https://puliyabaazi.inHosts: @saurabhchandra @pranaykotas @thescribblebeeTwitter: @puliyabaaziInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/puliyabaazi/Subscribe & listen to the podcast on iTunes, Google Podcasts, Castbox, AudioBoom, YouTube, Spotify or any other podcast app. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.puliyabaazi.in

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Haseeb Qureshi, a managing partner at Dragonfly, a crypto-focused VC fund. They discuss the evolution of stablecoins, three key use cases, and their impact on international finance. Haseeb explains how stablecoins have grown beyond their initial association with crypto trading and illicit activities to serve legitimate economic functions globally, in ways that many Americans might not fully appreciate. Patrick and Haseeb debate the regulatory landscape, the strategic ambiguity of crypto's positioning, and whether stablecoins represent a parallel financial system that might eventually converge with traditional banking. –Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/taking-stablecoins-seriously-with-haseeb-qureshi/–Sponsor:  SafebaseReady to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn't slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast –Recommended in this episode:Zeke Faux on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/5OnSK3PuhfipMHv9htvuyb Chopping Block podcast https://unchainedcrypto.com/the-chopping-block/ Haseeb Qureshi's website https://haseebq.com/about/ –Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:55) Crypto industry insights and tether discussion(02:52) Stablecoins and their economic models(05:04) Decentralized stablecoins and their mechanisms(07:41) VC perspective on stablecoin investments(13:18) Regulatory challenges and lobbying in crypto(20:36) Emerging use cases for stablecoins(24:16) Sponsor: Safebase(32:35) The initial response to stablecoins(33:38) Stablecoins and national security concerns(34:00) The shift in congressional attitude(34:49) Stablecoins and dollar internationalization(37:40) Retail payments in high-inflation countries(38:41) The role of black markets(46:13) International B2B payments(01:02:57) The future of stablecoins(01:05:44) Wrap

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) challenges a recent Atlantic article claiming that low-income cardholders subsidize credit card rewards through high interest payments. Drawing from his Bits About Money essay Anatomy of a credit card rewards program, Patrick explains that rewards are primarily funded by interchange fees paid by merchants, not by interest charges.To the extent those interchange is passed along to customers, it falls mostly on rich customers, because rich customers spend more. They spend more in interchange than they earn in rewards. Issuing banks and researchers who have looked at the data mostly agree here.Patrick also breaks down the credit card rewards game, showing how banks strategically design card offerings for different market segments and explains the portfolio mathematics that disprove the cross-subsidization narrative. –Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/credit-card-rewards-interchange/–Sponsor:  VantaVanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complex–Recommended in this episode:Bits about money: Anatomy of credit card rewards programs https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/anatomy-of-credit-card-rewards-programs/The Atlantic: There Are Two Kinds of Credit Cards by Annie Lowrey https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/03/credit-card-racket/682075/ Complex Systems episode with Gary Leff https://open.spotify.com/episode/1QqFw5hlHKRrjRUTVLfKRV?si=hNwbnyrmQiqHe9ziAnGCpQ Complex Systems episode with Dave Guarino https://open.spotify.com/episode/0UlTIRosmjtvpcdHQ7t2tK?si=i8LYGS-iSfOoGsVmMFYWjA –Timestamps:(00:31) A recent Atlantic article's false thesis(09:35) Rebating interchange to earn share of wallet(14:48) Sponsor: Vanta(16:56) Why isn't every card a rewards card?(27:56) The complexity spectrum of rewards products(29:55) A fun rabbit hole about credit card acceptance(33:53) Back to more complicated cases(45:45) Further refinements in cat and mouse games(51:24) Giving the customer more choices more frequently(58:10) More directions to go in(01:01:54) Patrick's counterproposal

"Cities can be the places that were how we do our metabolism as a spieces." Are you interested in ecological design? What do you think about bioregions in our planning? How can we avoid defuturing? Interview with Dr Stuart Cowan, Executive Director at Buckminster Fuller Institute. We will talk about his vision for the future of cities, futuring and protopia, Spaceship Earth, reciprocity, experimentation, and many more. Dr. Stuart Cowan is the Executive Director of the Buckminster Fuller Institute, advancing design science for systems change. He leads initiatives like the BFI Design Lab, fostering innovation to address critical planetary challenges. With 25 years' experience in regenerative design, finance, and systems, he co-founded Autopoiesis LLC, regenerating communities, ecosystems, and organizations. Stuart was the founding convener of the Regenerative Communities Network, supporting 15 bioregions, and has served as Chief Scientist at the Smart Cities Council. Co-author of Ecological Design, he earned a PhD in Applied Mathematics from UC Berkeley, focusing on Complex Systems and Ecological Economics.Find out more about Stuart through these links:Stuart Cowan on LinkedIn Stuart Cowan websiteBuckminster Fuller Institute websiteBuckminster Fuller Institute on LinkedInBuckminster Fuller Institute on YoutubeEcological design - book by Stuart Cowan and Sim Van der RynOperating manual for a Spaceship Earth - book by Buckminster FullerChildren of a modest star - book by Jonathan S. Blake and Nils GilmanDesign for the pluriverse - book by Arturo EscobarDesigning from an abundance perspective - Stuart Cowan on the Ma Earth programConnecting episodes you might be interested in:No.101R - What we owe the future? (book summary)No.186 - Interview with Tom Bosschaert about Orchid CityNo.220 - Interview with Simon Burt about the importance of bees No.309R - Ecological urban planning and designWhat was the most interesting part for you? What questions did arise for you? Let me know on Twitter ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@WTF4Cities⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ or on the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠wtf4cities.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ website where the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠sho⁠w⁠notes⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ are also available.I hope this was an interesting episode for you and thanks for tuning in.Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Lesfm ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠from ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Pixabay⁠

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Today on Upstream, we're releasing Patrick MacKenzie's interview with Azeem Azhar which originally aired in February 2025 on Complex Systems. They discuss the economics and infrastructure of data centers, comparing historical infrastructure rollouts to modern AI-driven data center needs, and explore the implications of exponential power demands, including innovations like small modular nuclear reactors and geothermal energy. —

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Lars Doucet and Greg Miller, co-founders who have just launched the Center for Land Economics, to discuss improving property taxation in the US. They explore how shifting taxes from buildings to land could transform development patterns, why California's property tax caps coincide with its housing crisis, and how the fundamental trade-off between assessment accuracy and consistency creates winners and losers. The conversation also covers the posting-to-policy pipeline, their work developing open-source tools to improve assessment equity, and techniques citizens can use to influence their local assessment office.  –Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/tax-the-dirt-with-lars-doucet-greg-miller/–Sponsors:  Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn't slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast –Recommended in this episode:Center for Land Economics: https://landeconomics.org/Game of Rent by Lars Doucet: https://gameofrent.com/ Progress & Poverty: https://progressandpoverty.substack.com/ Mass Appraisal for the Masses: https://progressandpoverty.substack.com/p/mass-appraisal-for-the-masses-the Lars Doucet on Complex Systems: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/property-assessment-lars-doucet/Dave Kasten on Complex Systems: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/tech-government-dave-kasten/ –Twitter:@patio11@larsiusprime–TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Intro(00:45) Center for land economics(04:01) Property tax basics(05:31) Challenges in property valuation(10:22) Impact of Proposition 13 in California(12:28) Anti-market property tax policies(14:43) Housing crisis and land value(15:46) Sponsors: Safebase(17:17) Housing crisis and land value (Part 2)(27:49) Urban development incentives(29:17) Tokyo's urban planning success(39:23) The abundance movement in housing(40:07) Innovative housing policies(41:24) Government bureaucracy and policy making(49:56) Mass appraisals and property tax fairness(01:00:02) Technological advances in property assessment(01:06:16) Empowering local governments and citizens(01:16:02) Wrap

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) explains the standard procedure for large withdrawals in bank branches, with particular focus on the viral story published in The Cut about a woman who withdrew $50,000 cash from a bank and handed it to scammers. Certain minor details in the article set off a year-long investigation where he identified the exact physical location of the bank branch in question, researched the context for the transaction using public records, and obtained new details through FOIA requests. His investigation reveals an underlying narrative that accounts for what actually happened, and provides a worked example for fact-checking in journalism. –Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/two-americas-one-50k-withdrawal/–Sponsors:  Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn't slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast –Recommended in this episode:Two Americas, one bank, and $50,000 cash https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/two-americas-one-bank-branch/ The Cut, The Day I Put $50,000 in a Shoe Box and Handed It to a Stranger https://www.thecut.com/article/amazon-scam-call-ftc-arrest-warrants.htmlKelsey Piper on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/33rHTZVowaq76tCTaKJfRBJim McKenzie on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/6ocJirzGTStuf0K9ITM21X–Timestamps: (00:55) Suppose you ask a bank to withdraw $50,000 in cash(07:55) Style magazines sometimes publish hard-hitting journalism(12:36) Reaching out to Vox Media(17:09) Sources of doubt(17:55) Sponsor: Safebase(22:30) The physical reality of bank branches(25:53) In which we became acquainted with brisk walks across Brooklyn(34:42) New York's Finest foil FOIL for a time

John Bennett discusses Milton Friedman‘s model of policy change. LINKS The Milton Friedman Model of Policy Change John Bennett's LinkedIn Friedman's “Capitalism and Freedom” Preface Ross Rheingans-Yoo on Thalidomide at Complex Systems, and at his blog “Every Bay Area Walled … Continue reading →

Who solves puzzles better: Ants or humans? Guest: Dr. Ofer Feinerman, Professor in the Department of Physics of Complex Systems at the Weizmann Institute of Science in Israel Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What really drove Trump to impose tariffs on Canada? Guest: Ian Austen, Ottawa-Based Reporter on Canada for The New York Times Times Should Canada sanction Trump's inner circle? Guest: Hadrian Mertins-Kirkwood, Senior Researcher at the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives Who solves puzzles better: Ants or humans? Guest: Dr. Ofer Feinerman, Professor in the Department of Physics of Complex Systems at the Weizmann Institute of Science in Israel How are Trump's tariffs impacting BC businesses? Guest: Bridgitte Anderson, President and CEO of the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Turns out drugs are bad Guest: Tyler Kaster, Medical Head, Temerty Centre for Therapeutic Brain Intervention, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

David Krakauer is an American evolutionary biologist. He is the President and William H. Miller Professor of Complex Systems at the Santa Fe Institute. As you will hear in today's episode, David's research centers around a series of fundamental questions, such as: How did life and intelligence evolve in the universe? How do ideas evolve and how do they encode natural and cultural life?In this conversation, David and I explore the evolving landscape of complexity science. We discuss its foundational theories, emerging patterns, and intersections with AI and machine learning. We delve into the paradigm shift complexity science represents, its most significant contributions across disciplines, and how computational advances are reshaping its trajectory. We also talk about AI's potential to scale towards AGI through a complexity lens, the limits imposed by evolutionary principles, and what this means for artificial systems. Finally, as President of the Santa Fe Institute, David discusses SFI's unique interdisciplinary model. I hope you enjoy the conversation.You can follow me on X (@ProfSchrepel) and BlueSky (@ProfSchrepel) to receive regular updates.References: Unifying complexity science and machine learning (2023) https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/complex-systems/articles/10.3389/fcpxs.2023.1235202/full The debate over understanding in AI's large language models (2023) https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5f29a430a2b6a34680879cc0/t/672467763ec35e0639db8457/1730439030537/DK-DebateOverUnderstandingInAIsLLMs2023.pdf Darwinian demons, evolutionary complexity, and information maximization (2011) https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5f29a430a2b6a34680879cc0/t/6725792b7d0d4f0e4e7ca2fe/1730509104265/DK-DarwinianDemonsEvolutionaryComplexity%26InformationMaximization2011.pdf

Is it better to have your work team fully connected or sparsely connected? In this episode we'll try to answer this question and more with our guest Hiroki Sayama, a SUNY Distinguished Professor and director of the Center for Complex Systems at Binghamton University. Hiroki delves into the applications of network science in organizational structures and innovation dynamics by showing his recent work of extracting network structures from organizational charts to enable insights into decision-making and performance, He'll also cover how network connectivity impacts team creativity and innovation. Key insights include how the structure of organizational networks—such as the depth of hierarchy or proximity to leadership—can influence corporate performance and how sparse network connectivity fosters more diverse and innovative ideas than fully connected networks.

In today's episode Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) examines a Chicago casino investment, first of its kind within the city limits. Patrick reads from his Bits About Money essay (published January 2025) with additional commentary based on recent developments. The discussion reveals how municipal politics, grievances about national and local economic history, and creative financing intersect for ‘a very Chicago gamble.' –Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-landmines-buried-in-the-fine-print-of-chicagos-new-casino-deal/–Sponsors:  Vanta | GiveWell | CheckVanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complexSupport proven charities that deliver measurable results and learn how to maximize your charitable impact with GiveWell. Go to givewell.org (and type in "Complex Systems" at checkout).Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.–Links:Bits About Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/chicago-casino-investment-offering/ The Story of Vaccinate CA: https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-story-of-vaccinateca/ The Conservative Investor: https://www.patreon.com/theconservativeincomeinvestor Complex Systems interview with Jim McKenzie: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6ocJirzGTStuf0K9ITM21X?si=7HA0RhEOS8GFsA1MlY-EVw–Twitter:@patio11–Timestamps: (00:00) Intro(01:43) Chicago has wanted a casino for a long time(04:55) The stock offering(10:29) Chicago's peculiar definition of minority(14:04) Sponsors: Vanta | Check(16:26) Reading a complex corporate structure(20:29) Is this valuation a gift to investors?(23:20) Capital stack arbitrage(30:04) The casino will not distribute profits, per se(32:45) Tax consequences of this offering(38:34) In conclusion

Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) revisits his March 2023 essay that explained the dynamics of bank runs and system stress during the banking crisis one month prior. With data from a newly released Federal Reserve paper, he analyzes the true scope of the banking stress - including revelations that 22 banks experienced severe deposit outflows, far more than publicly known at the time. While officials blamed social media for bank runs, data shows institutional players, not retail depositors, drove the events. –Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/banking-crisis-two-years-later/–Sponsors:  Vanta | GiveWell | CheckVanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complexSupport proven charities that deliver measurable results and learn how to maximize your charitable impact with GiveWell. Go to givewell.org (and type in "Complex Systems" at checkout).Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.–Links:Bits About Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/banking-in-very-uncertain-times/Federal Reserve Report: Tracing Bank Runs in Real Time https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr1104.html Byrne Hobart's blog The Diff: https://www.thediff.co/ Matt Levine's blog Money Stuff: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/money-stuff –Twitter:@patio11–Timestamps: (00:00) Revisiting the March 2023 essay(01:47) The Fed's study(11:21) Why are banks failing?(14:41) A useful heuristic from bond math(18:05) Sponsors: Vanta | Check(21:00) Maturity transformation(29:54) Sponsor: GiveWell(30:42) Liquidity problems are the proximate cause of bank failures(33:43) Trying to forestall a banking crisis(40:16) Deposit insurance expansion(47:12) Deposit insurance has some legacy issues(52:04) What would happen if my bank were to go into receivership this weekend?(59:46) What should users of the banking system do?(01:04:09) Parting thoughts(01:05:08) Footnote

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) unpacks his 24k word essay Debanking (and Debunking?) originally published on Bits about Money. He discusses the contours of recent debanking claims made by the crypto community, notably Marc Andreessen, Nic Carter, and explains how banking actually works as infrastructure rather than conspiracy.  The conversation moves from Operation Chokepoint's documented history to current claims about coordinated action against certain industries, while highlighting how banking access challenges disproportionately affect those who are "relatively less resourced, relatively less educated."–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/debanking-patrick-mckenzie/–Sponsors:  Vanta | GiveWell | CheckVanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complexSupport proven charities that deliver measurable results and learn how to maximize your charitable impact with GiveWell. Go to givewell.org (and type in "Complex Systems" at checkout).Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.–Links:Debanking (and Debunking?) https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/debanking-and-debunking/ a16z's Debanking explainer: https://a16zcrypto.com/posts/article/debanking-explained/–Twitter:@patio11@eriktorenberg–Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:19) Marc Andreessen's debanking claims(01:02) Understanding debanking and its implications(02:18) Crypto enthusiasts' perspective(07:43) Operation Chokepoint: A historical context(18:09) Sponsors: Vanta | Check(20:23) Operation Chokepoint 2.0: The present day(22:12) The fall of Silvergate Bank(29:55) Crypto advocates and Silvergate Bank(30:45) Sponsor: GiveWell(31:43) Understanding bank account closures(32:35) Bodegas and money services businesses(36:38) Crypto companies and credit risk(47:24) Debanking and its broader implications(49:24) Political ramifications and free speech(59:27) Wrap–Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.

Episode 4187: Collapse Of Complex Systems

In this special episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) and his EA/producer Sammy Cottrell examine the production function behind Complex Systems, from studio logistics to transcript annotation and guest selection. They reflect on their most memorable episodes while discussing the podcast's core mission of making complex systems more legible and ensuring valuable content remains freely available on the internet. The conversation explores the subjective best episodes from 2024, plans for the year ahead, and how LLMs might transform both the systems they study and how we write about them.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/2024-year-in-review-sammy-cottrell/–Sponsor: Vanta | GiveWell | Check Vanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complexSupport proven charities that deliver measurable results and learn how to maximize your charitable impact with GiveWell. Go to givewell.org (and type in "Complex Systems" at checkout).Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.–Links:Ricki Heicklen on Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/episode/11kEUYRn4gXZGju232hzcgCasey Handmer on Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0GHegWgLSubYxvATmbWhQuDan Davies on Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5QKxzgumJXSQuaWCmYAoM9Zvi Mowshowitz on Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4itdtJFLCpLQNd2g1zTtdDRoss Rheingans-Yoo on Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4GiO0KYqxJNCIdltCyhN6mPatrick's talk at Manifest 2024 (Manifold): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfiiXq_bE1c Article mentioned - ‘50K in a Shoebox': https://www.thecut.com/article/amazon-scam-call-ftc-arrest-warrants.htmlCopenhagen theory of culpability: https://laneless.substack.com/p/the-copenhagen-interpretation-of-ethics –Twitter:@patio11@haththerescuer–Timestamps:(01:04) Introducing Sammy(01:37) The offscreen symphony behind Complex Systems(07:19) Production supply chain and transcript philosophy(08:40) LLMs of choice(15:11) Sponsors: Vanta | Check(21:21) Favorite episodes(25:49) Sponsor: GiveWell(27:15) Beyoncé(28:47) More subjectively favorite episodes(32:34) Thesis of Complex Systems(34:07) Canon in operations research(40:51) Sabbatical mode(48:52) Bits about Money and other writing in 2024(51:22) On paywalls and not implementing them(54:29) LLM plans for 2025–Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.

In this episode, Yatharth (@askyatharth), a graduate student and software engineer, turns the tables to interview Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) about cultural codes, writing, and AI. Patrick shares how his early experiences fighting credit report errors and navigating cross-cultural business environments led to his distinctive approach to understanding and writing about institutional systems. The conversation spans from Patrick's methodical exploration of banking infrastructure to his predictions about LLMs, weaving in personal stories about dating, parenthood, and bridging American and Japanese cultures along the way.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/outside-view-yatharth/–Sponsors:  CheckCheck is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.–Links:Yatharth's writing https://itsyatharth.substack.com/Rules for Radicals by Saul Alinsky https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rules_for_Radicals Dave Kasten on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/66SSmxK2Kpyef7WUxXxS6w?si=5EZYfZ7gThG8WV7hSs1aFQLars Doucet on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XQjSGCfW6XIu1AFB4oZeR?si=n3C28PymT6m7pPqFb2NE8QBits about Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/ –Twitter:@askyatharth@patio11–Timestamps: (00:00) Intro(01:30) Patrick's early interest in credit cards(03:53) Navigating financial challenges(05:10) Becoming a financial advisor(10:35) Cultural and educational insights(18:57) Sponsor: Check(22:14) Personal stories and reflections(25:48) Parenting and cultural integration(33:26) Writing and storytelling journey(37:35) Translating financial systems for a new audience(39:08) The role of AI in writing and style transfer(40:46) The concept of alpha in writing(44:48) Legal advice and AI's role(52:12) The impact of AI on bureaucratic systems(01:04:22) Reflections on government software and policy(01:13:49) Sabbatical insights and future interests(01:18:52) Wrap– Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Joshua Morrison, the CEO of advocacy non-profit 1Day Sooner. They discuss what worked and what didn't in Operation Warp Speed's unprecedented push to develop COVID-19 vaccines. The conversation then turns to the future of pandemic preparedness, particularly the promising (and underappreciated) clean air technology. Throughout, Joshua and Patrick illuminate how institutional design choices, political incentives, and technical constraints shape our ability to respond to public health challenges.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/warp-speed-joshua-morrison/-Sponsors: GiveWell | CheckSupport proven charities that deliver measurable results and learn how to maximize your charitable impact with GiveWell. First-time donors get $100 matched. Go to givewell.org (and type in "Complex Systems" at checkout).Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.–Links:1Day Sooner: https://www.1daysooner.org/Patrick's Complex Systems interview with Ross Rheingans-Yoo: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4GiO0KYqxJNCIdltCyhN6m Patrick's Complex Systems interview with Dave Kasten about building VaccinateCA https://open.spotify.com/episode/66SSmxK2Kpyef7WUxXxS6w?si=VsSJMkktQiSGxtn9bFoOWATakeda's licensing deal with Moderna: https://www.takeda.com/newsroom/newsreleases/2021/takeda-announces-approval-of-modernas-covid-19-vaccine-in-japan/Bits about Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/ –Twitter:@joshcmorrison@patio11–Timestamps:(00:00) Intro (00:56) The role of challenge studies in vaccine development(09:24) Understanding vaccine platforms (18:33) Sponsor: Check (19:46) Regulatory system insights and future improvements(20:41) Lessons for our regulatory system(29:55) First doses first debate(37:35) The surprising nature of COVID-19(39:30) Vaccine hesitancy and public communication(42:08) Political influence on vaccine distribution(58:28) Indoor air quality and disease prevention(01:06:52) Future of public health initiatives(01:12:27) Wrap

Farmer is the Baillie Gifford Professor of Complex Systems at Oxford's Institute for New Economic Thinking. Before joining Oxford in 2012, he worked at Los Alamos National Laboratory and the Santa Fe Institute, where he studied complex systems and economic dynamics. During the 1990s, he took a break from academia to run a successful quantitative trading firm using statistical arbitrage strategies.Farmer has been a pioneer in chaos theory and complexity economics, including the development of agent-based models to understand economic phenomena. His work spans from housing markets to climate change, and he recently authored Making Sense of Chaos exploring complexity science and economic modeling.In This Episode* What is complexity economics? (1:23)* Compliment or replacement for traditional economics (6:55)* Modeling Covid-19 (11:12)* The state of the science (15:06)* How to approach economic growth (20:44)Below is a lightly edited transcript of our conversation. What is complexity economics? (1:23)We really can model the economy as something dynamic that can have its own business cycles that come from within the economy, rather than having the economy just settle down to doing something static unless it's hit by shocks all the time, as is the case in mainstream models.Pethokoukis: What does the sort of economics that people would learn, let's say, in the first year of college, they might learn about labor and capital, supply-demand equilibrium, rational expectations, maybe the importance of ideas. How does that differ from the kind of economics you are talking about? Are you looking at different factors?Farmer: We're really looking at a completely different way of doing economics. Rather than maximizing utility, which is really the central conceptual piece of any standard economic model, and writing down equations, and deducing the decision that does that, we simulate the economy.We assume that we identify who the agents in the and economy are, who's making the decisions, what information do they have available, we give them methods of making the decisions — decision-making rules or learning algorithms — and then they make decisions, those decisions have economic impact, that generates new information, other information may enter from the outside, they make decisions, and we just go around and around that loop in a computer simulation that tries to simulate what the economy does and how it works.You've been writing about this for some time. I would guess — perhaps I'm wrong — that just having more data and more computer power has been super helpful over the past 10 years, 20 years.It's been super helpful for us. We take much more advantage of that than the mainstream does. But yes, computers are a billion times more powerful now than they were when Herb Simon first suggested this way of doing things, and that means the time is ripe now because that's not a limiting factor anymore, as it was in the past.So if you're not looking at capital and labor per se, then what are the factors you're looking at?Well, we do look at capital and labor, we just look at them in a different way. Our models are concerned about how much capital is there to invest, what labor is available. We do have to assign firms production functions that tells, given an amount of capital and labor and all their other inputs, how much can the firms produce? That part of the idea is similar. It's a question of the way the decision about how much to produce is made, or the way consumers decide how much to consume, or laborers decide at what price to provide their labor. All those parts are different.Another difference — if I'm understanding it correctly — is, rather than thinking about economies that tend toward equilibrium and focusing how outside shocks may put an economy in disequilibrium, you're looking a lot more at what happens internally. Am I correct?We don't assume equilibrium. Equilibrium, it has two senses in economics: One is supply equals demand. We might or might not run a model where we assume that. In many models we don't, and if that happens, that's great, but it's an outcome of the model rather than an assumption we put in at the beginning.There's another sense of equilibrium, which is that everybody's strategy is lined up. You've had time to think about what you're doing, I've had time to think about what I'm doing, we've both come to the optimal decision for each of us to make, taking the other one into account. We don't assume that, as standard models typically do. We really can model the economy as something dynamic that can have its own business cycles that come from within the economy, rather than having the economy just settle down to doing something static unless it's hit by shocks all the time, as is the case in mainstream models. We still allow shocks to hit our models, but the economy can generate dynamics even without those shocks.This just popped in my head: To whom would this model make more intuitive sense, Karl Marx or Adam Smith?Adam Smith would like these models because they really allow for emergent behavior. That is, Smith's whole point was that the economy is more than the sum of its parts, that we get far more out of specializing than we do out of each acting like Robinson Crusoes. Our way of thinking about this gets at that very directly.Marx might actually like it too, perhaps for a different reason. Marx was insightful in understanding the economy as being like, what I call in the book, the “metabolism of civilization.” That is, he really did recognize the analogy between the economy and the metabolism, and viewed labor as what we put together with natural resources to make goods and services. So those aspects of the economy are also embodied in the kind of models we're making.I think they both like it, but for different reasons.Compliment or replacement for traditional economics (6:55)There are many problems where we can answer questions traditional methods can't even really ask.The way I may have framed my questions so far is that you are suggesting a replacement or alternative. Is what you're suggesting, is it one of those things, or is it a compliment, or is it just a way of looking at the world that's better at answering certain kinds of questions?I think the jury is out to find the answer to that. I think it is certainly a compliment, and that we're doing things very differently, and there are some problems where this method is particularly well-suited. There are many problems where we can answer questions traditional methods can't even really ask.That said, I think time will tell to what extent this replaces the traditional way of doing economics. I don't think it's going to replace everything that's done in traditional economics. I think it could replace 75 percent of it — but let me put an asterisk by that and say 75 percent of theory. Economists do many different things. One thing economists do is called econometrics, where they take data and they build models just based on the data to infer things that the data is telling them. We're not talking about that here. We're talking about theories where economists attempt to derive the decisions and economic outcomes from first principles based on utility maximization. That's what we're talking about providing an alternative to. The extent to which it replaces that will be seen as time will tell.When a big Wall Street bank wants to make a forecast, they're constantly incorporating the latest jobless claims numbers, industrial production numbers, and as those numbers get updated, they change their forecasts. You're not using any of that stuff?Well, no. We can potentially could ingest any kind of data about what's going on.But they're looking at big, top-down data while you're bottom-up, you're sort of trying to duplicate the actual actors in the economy.That is true, but we can adjust what's at the bottom to make sure we're matching initial conditions. So if somebody tells us, “This is the current value of unemployment,” we want to make sure that we're starting our model out, as we go forward, with the right level of unemployment. So we will unemploy some of the households in our model in order to make sure we're matching the state of unemployment right now and then we start our simulation running forward to see where the economy goes from here.I would think that the advent of these large language models would really take this kind of modeling to another level, because already I'm seeing lots of papers on their ability to . . . where people are trying to run experiments and, rather than using real people, they're just trying to use AI people, and the ability to create AI consumers, and AI in businesses — it would have to be a huge advance.Yes. This is starting to be experimented with for what we do. People are trying to use large language models to model how people actually make decisions, or let's say, to simulate the way people make decisions, as opposed to an idealized person that makes perfect decisions. That's a very promising line of attack to doing this kind of modeling.Large language models also can tell us about other things that allow us to match data. For example, if we want to use patents as an input in our modeling — not something we're doing yet, but we've done a lot of studies with patents — one can use large language models to match patents to firms to understand which firms will benefit from the patents and which firms won't. So there are many different ways that large language models are likely to enter going forward, and we're quite keen to take advantage of those.Modeling Covid-19 (11:12)We predicted a 21.5 percent hit to UK GDP in the second quarter of 2020. When the dust settled a year later, the right answer was 22.1. So we got very close.Tell me, briefly, about your work with the Covid outbreak back in 2020 and what your modeling said back then and how well it worked.When the pandemic broke out, we realized right away that this was a great opportunity to show the power of the kind of economic modeling that we do, because Covid was a very strong and very sudden shock. So it drove the economy far out of equilibrium. We were able to predict what Covid would do to the UK economy using two basic ideas: One is, we predicted the shock. We did that based on things like understanding a lot about occupational labor. The Bureau of Labor Statistics compiles tables about things like, in a given occupation, how close together do people typically work? And so we assumed if they worked closer together than two meters, they weren't going to be able to go to their job. That combined with several other things allowed us to predict how big the shock would be.Our model predicted how that shock would be amplified through time by the action of the economy. So in the model we built, we put a representative firm in every sector of the economy and we assumed that if that firm didn't have the labor it needed, or if it didn't have the demand for its product, or if it didn't have the inputs it needed, it wouldn't be able to produce its product and the output would be reduced proportional to any of those three limiting factors.And so we started the model off on Day One with an inventory of inputs that we read out of a table that government statistical agencies had prepared for each sector of the economy. And we then just looked, “Well, does it have the labor? Does it have demand? Does it have the goods?” If yes, it can produce at its normal level. If it's lacking any of those, it's going to produce at a lower level. And our model knew the map of the economy, so it knew which industries are inputs to which other industries. So as the pandemic evolved day by day, we saw that some industries started to run out of inputs and that would reduce their output, which, in turn, could cause other industries to run out of their inputs, and so on.That produced quite a good prediction. We predicted a 21.5 percent hit to UK GDP in the second quarter of 2020. When the dust settled a year later, the right answer was 22.1. So we got very close. We predicted things pretty well, industry by industry. We didn't get them all exactly right, but the mistakes we made averaged out so that we got the overall output right, and we got it right through time.We ran the model on several different scenarios. At the time, this was in April of 2020, the United Kingdom was in a lockdown and they were trying to decide what to do next, and we tested several different scenarios for what they might do when they emerged from the full lockdown. The one that we thought was the least bad was keeping all the upstream industries like mining, and forestry, and so on open, but closing the downstream, customer-facing industries like retail businesses that have customers coming into their shop, or making them operate remotely. That was the one they picked. Already when they picked it, we predicted what would happen, and things unfolded roughly as we suggested they would.The state of the science (15:06)Mainstream models can only model shocks that come from outside the economy and how the economy responds to those shocks. But if you just let the model sit there and nothing changes, it will just settle down and the economy will never change.I'm old enough to remember the 1990s and remember a lot of talk about chaos and complexity, some of which even made it into the mainstream, and Jurassic Park, which may be the way most people heard a little bit about it. It's been 30 years. To what extent has it made inroads into economic modeling at central banks or Wall Street banks? Where's the state of the science? Though it sounds like you're really taking another step forward here with the book and some of your latest research.Maybe I could first begin just by saying that before Jurassic Park was made, I got a phone call and picked up the phone, and the other end of the line said, “Hi, this is Jeff Goldblum, have you ever heard of me?” I said, “Yeah.” And he said, “Well, we're making this movie about dinosaurs and stuff, and I'm going to play a chaos scientist, and I'm calling up some chaos scientists to see how they talk.” And so I talked to Jeff Goldblum for about a half an hour. A few of my other friends did too. So anyway, I like to think I had a tiny little bit of impact on the way he behaved in the movie. There were some parallels that it seemed like he had lifted.Chaos, it's an important underlying concept in explaining why the weather is hard to predict, it can explain some forms of heart arrhythmias, we use it to explain some of the irregular behavior of ice ages. In economics, it was tossed around in the '90s as something that might be important and rejected. As I described in the book, I think it was rejected for the wrong reasons.I'm proposing chaos, the role it plays in here is that, there's a debate about business cycles. Do they come from outside? The Covid pandemic was clearly a business cycle that came from outside. Or do they come from inside the economy? The 2008 financial crisis, I would say, is clearly one that came from inside the economy. Mainstream models can only model shocks that come from outside the economy and how the economy responds to those shocks. But if you just let the model sit there and nothing changes, it will just settle down and the economy will never change.In contrast, the kinds of models we build often show what we call endogenous business cycles, meaning business cycles that the model generates all on its own. Now then, you can ask, “Well, how could it do that?” Well, basically the only plausible way it can do that is through chaos. Because chaos has two properties: One is called sensitive dependence on initial conditions, meaning tiny changes in the present can cause large changes in the future; but the other is endogenous motion, meaning motion that comes from within the system itself, that happens spontaneously, even in very simple systems of equations.Would something like consumer pessimism, would that be an external shock or would something more internal where everybody, they're worried about the futures, then they stop spending as much money? How would that fit in?If the consumer pessimism is due to the fear of a nuclear war, I would say it's outside the economy, and so that's an external shock. But if it's caused by the fact that the economy just took a big nose dive for an internal reason, then it's part of the endogenous dynamicsI spent many years as a journalist writing about why the market's going up, the market's going down, and by the end of the day, I had to come up with a reason why the market moved, and I could — I wasn't always quite confident, because sometimes it wasn't because of a new piece of data, or an earnings report, they just kind of moved, and I had no real reason why, even though I had to come up . . . and of course it was when I was doing that was when people started talking about chaos, and it made a lot of intuitive sense to me that things seem to happen internally in ways that, at least at the time, were utterly unpredictable.Yeah, and in fact, one of the studies I discuss in the book is by Cutler, Poterba, and Summers — the Summers would be Larry Summers — where they did something very simple, they just got the 100 largest moves of the S&P index, they looked up what the news was the next day about why they occurred in the New York Times, and they subjectively marked the ones that they thought were internally driven, versus the ones that were real news, and they concluded they could only find news causes for about a third of them.There is always an explanation in the paper; actually, there is one day on the top 12 list where the New York Times simply said, “There appears to be no cause.” That was back in the '40s, I don't think journalists ever say that anymore. I don't think their paper allows them to do it, but that's probably the right answer about two-thirds of the time, unless you count things like “investors are worried,” and, as I point out in the book, if the person who invests your money isn't worried all the time, then you should fire them because investors should worry.There are internal dynamics to markets, I actually show some examples in the book of simple models that generate that kind of internal dynamics so that things change spontaneously.How to approach economic growth (20:44)I'm not saying something controversial when I say that technological change is the dominant driver of economic growth, at least for the economy as a whole. You recently founded a company, Macrocosm, trying to put some of these ideas to work to address climate change, which would seem to be a very natural use for this kind of thinking. What do you hope to achieve there?We hope to provide better guidance through the transition. We're trying to take the kind of things we've been doing as academics, but scale them up and reduce them to practice so they can be used day-in and day-out to make the decisions that policymakers and businesspeople need to make as the transition is unfolding. We hope to be able to guide policymakers about how effective their policies will be in reducing emissions, but also in keeping the economy going and in good shape. We hope to be able to advise businesses and investors about what investments to make to make a profit while we reduce emissions. And we think that things have changed so that climate change has really become an opportunity rather than a liability.I write a lot about economic growth and try to figure out how it works, what are the key factors. . . What insights can you give me, either on how you think about growth and, since I work at a think tank, the kind of policies you think policy makers should be thinking about, or how should they think about economic growth, since that seems to be on top-of-mind in every rich country in the world right now?I'm not saying something controversial when I say that technological change is the dominant driver of economic growth, at least for the economy as a whole. And we've spent a lot of time studying technological change by just collecting data and looking for the patterns in that data: What does the technology cost through time and how rapidly is it deployed? We've done this for 50 or 60 technologies where we look at past technological transitions, because typically, as a technology is coming in, it's replacing something else that's going out, and what we've seen are a couple of striking things:One is, many technologies don't really improve very much over time, at least in terms of cost. Fossil fuels cost about the same as they did 140 years ago once you adjust for inflation. In fact, anything we mine out of the ground costs about the same as it did a hundred years ago.In contrast, solar energy from solar photovoltaic panels costs 1/10,000th what it did when it was introduced in the Vanguard satellite in 1958. Transistors have been going down at 40 percent per year, so they cost about a billionth of what they did back in 1960. So some technologies really make rapid progress, and the economy evolves by reorganizing itself around the technologies that are making progress. So for example, photography used to be about chemistry and film. Photography now is about solid-state physics because it just unhitched from one wagon and hitched itself to another wagon, and that's what's happening through the energy transition. We're in the process of hitching our wagon to the technologies that have been making rapid progress, like solar energy, and wind energy, and lithium ion batteries, and hydrogen catalyzers based on green energy.I think we can learn a lot about the past, and I think that when we look at what the ride should be like, based on what we understand, we think the transition is going to happen faster than most people think, and we think it will be a net saving of moneySo then how do you deal with a wild card, which I think if you look at the past, nuclear power seems like it's super expensive, no progress being made, but, theoretically, there could be — at least in the United States — there could be lots of regulatory changes that make it easier to build. You have all these venture capital firms pouring money into these nuclear startups with small reactors, or even nuclear fusion. So a technology that seems like it's a mature technology, it might be easy to chart its future, all of a sudden maybe it's very different.I'm not arguing we should get rid of nuclear reactors until they run their normal lifetime and need to be gotten rid of, but I think we will see that that is not going to be the winning technology in the long run, just because it's going to remain expensive while solar energy is going to become dirt cheap.In the early days, nuclear power had faced a very favorable regulatory environment. The first nuclear reactors were built in the '50s. Until Three Mile Island and Chernobyl happened, it was a very regulatorily friendly environment and they didn't come down in cost. Other countries like France have been very pro-nuclear. They have very expensive electricity and will continue to do so.I think the key thing we need to do is focus on storage technologies like green hydrogen. Long-term storage batteries have already come down to a point where they're beginning to be competitive; they will continue to do so. And in the future, I think we'll get solid-state storage that will make things quite cheap and efficient, but I don't think small modular reactors are going to ever be able to catch up with solar and wind at this point.On sale everywhere The Conservative Futurist: How To Create the Sci-Fi World We Were PromisedMicro Reads▶ Economics* United States Economic Forecast - Deloitte* The Hidden Threat to National Security Is Not Enough Workers - WSJ▶ Business* DOGE Can't Do It All. Here's What It Can Do. - Politico* AI Startup Perplexity Closes Funding Round at $9 Billion Value - Bberg▶ Policy/Politics* US Homeland Security chief attacks EU effort to police AI - FT* The Trump Bump: The Republican Fertility Advantage in 2024 - IFS* House unveils AI ‘road map' but punts on setting priorities - Wapo* Did Tariffs Make American Manufacturing Great? - Cato▶ AI/Digital* Call ChatGPT from any phone with OpenAI's new 1-800 voice service - Ars* Homo-Silicus: Not (Yet) a Good Imitator of Homo Sapiens or Homo Economicus - SSRN* Is AI finally ready to replace your doctor? - NS* The Age of Quantum Software Has Already Started - WSJ* This is where the data to build AI comes from - MIT* The New AI Stock Pickers Are Destined to Disappoint - Bberg Opinion▶ Clean Energy/Climate* Fusion Start-Up Plans to Build Its First Power Plant in Virginia - NYT* Will the World's First Nuclear Fusion Power Plant Be Built in Virginia? Here's Why We're Skeptical - SciAm* The deepest hole on Earth: Inside the race to harness unlimited power from our planet's core - SF* Dubai transforms into walkable city with air-conditioned paths - New Atlas* Oklo inks record deal for using nuclear to power data centers - E&E▶ Robotics/AVs* AI Robots Are Coming, and They'll Be Made in Asia - Bberg Opinion▶ Space/Transportation* Boeing Starliner crew's long awaited return delayed to March - Wapo▶ Up Wing/Down Wing* What Could Go Right? The Best News of 2024 - The Progress Network▶ Substacks/Newsletters* Why Don't EU Firms Innovate? The Hidden Costs of Failure - Conversable Economist* Why Did the Industrial Revolution Happen? - Oliver Kim* One Down, Many To Go - Hyperdimensional* The Experience Curve - Risk & Progress* The case for clinical trial abundance - Slow Borin* Nuclear Waste: Yes, In (or Under) My Backyard - Breakthrough Journal* Answer Time: Can We Imagine Pluralistic Futures? - Virginia's Newsletter* What just happened - One Useful ThingFaster, Please! is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit fasterplease.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, we talked with Chris Baird, CEO of OptConnect, about the evolving IoT landscape and the strategies driving enterprise adoption. Our conversation explored key growth drivers in IoT, the challenges of scaling connectivity, and the technologies poised to redefine the industry, including Edge AI and the promise of 6G. Chris shared insights into how regulatory and environmental factors are accelerating IoT adoption, the impact of turnkey solutions on reducing total cost of ownership, and the pivotal role of simplicity in scaling IoT deployments. Key Insights: What drives IoT growth? Regulatory shifts, environmental needs, and cellular ubiquity fuel adoption. How do you cut IoT costs? Simplified plug-and-play solutions reduce complexity and hidden expenses. Why has 5G underdelivered? 6G offers transformative potential in cost, latency, and scalability. What's next for IoT? Edge AI enables smarter systems and expands use cases like healthcare and security. Where is IoT thriving? Retail, water management, and medical devices show rapid adoption.   IoT ONE Database: https://www.iotone.com/case-studies   The Industrial IoT Spotlight podcast is produced by Asia Growth Partners (AGP): https://asiagrowthpartners.com/

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Lars Doucet, the author of Land is a Big Deal, discuss how cities determine your property's value and collect taxes. They explore how assessment offices juggle political pressures, statistical models, and technological tools while trying to maintain equity across millions of properties. They also cover why assessment offices are separate from tax collectors, how property value protests actually work, and why your neighbor's house might be assessed differently than yours.–Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/property-assessment-lars-doucet/–Sponsors: GiveWell | CheckSupport proven charities that deliver measurable results and learn how to maximize your charitable impact with GiveWell. First-time donors get $100 matched. Go to givewell.org (and type in "Complex Systems" at checkout).Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.–Links:Lars' book: https://www.landisabigdeal.com/Lars' blog: https://www.fortressofdoors.com/ Bits about Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/ –Twitter@larsiusprime@patio11–Timestamps(00:00) Introduction(00:23) How property taxes work (Texas Example)(02:45) The political art of avoiding tax rate blame(05:53) Sources of real estate data(08:08) Historical property assessment(11:04) Statutory guidance vs. Actual practice on market value assessment(14:25) Tax rate strategy and sandbagging(15:17) Assessed value vs market value(16:16) Assessment caps and Prop 13 (18:22) Sponsor: GiveWell | Check(20:27) Data collection in the field(22:54) Data collection methods(25:08) Property valuation: Beyond location and correlative factors(26:52) Depreciation of buildings(27:37) Orthodox view of depreciation(30:53) Real estate cultural differences(33:59) Urban redevelopment and land value(36:59) Small business realities and perceptions(46:19) Property tax protests(50:45) Predictive protests(52:19) Accuracy vs equity testing(58:50) Cook county assessor's office(1:01:11) Lars's background(1:05:38) What is GIS?(1:09:52) Wrap

We're excited to welcome Doyne Farmer to the podcast. Doyne is a pioneering complexity scientist and a leading thinker on economic systems, technological change, and the future of society. Doyne is a Professor of Complex Systems at the University of Oxford, an external professor at the Santa Fe Institute, and Chief Scientist at Macrocosm. Doyne's work spans an extraordinary range of topics, from agent-based modeling of financial markets to exploring how innovation shapes the long-term trajectory of human progress. At the heart of Doyne's thinking is a focus on prediction—not in the narrow sense of forecasting next week's market trends, but in understanding the deep, generative forces that shape the evolution of technology and society. His new book, Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World, is a reflection on the limitations of traditional economics and a call to embrace the tools of complexity science. In it, Doyne argues that today's economic models often fall short because they assume simplicity where there is none. What's especially compelling about Doyne's perspective is how he uses complexity science to challenge conventional economic assumptions. While traditional economics often treats markets as rational and efficient, Doyne reveals the messy, adaptive, and unpredictable nature of real-world economies. His ideas offer a powerful framework for rethinking how we approach systemic risk, innovation policy, and the role of AI-driven technologies in shaping our future. We believe Doyne's ideas are essential for anyone trying to understand the uncertainties we face today. He doesn't just highlight the complexity—he shows how to navigate it. By tracking the hidden currents that drive change, he helps us see the bigger picture of where we might be headed. We hope you enjoy our conversation with Doyne Farmer. ------------------------------ If you enjoy our podcasts, please subscribe and leave a positive rating or comment. Sharing your positive feedback helps us reach more people and connect them with the world's great minds. Subscribe to get Artificiality delivered to your email Learn about our book Make Better Decisions and buy it on Amazon Thanks to Jonathan Coulton for our music

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) offers a reading of his viral essay, "The optimal amount of fraud is non-zero" with extensive live commentary. Patrick examines payment systems, benefits programs, and pandemic-era policies, to uncover how businesses and governments often intentionally accept some level of fraud as a cost of doing business. Reducing fraud to zero would require such restrictive verification that it would severely hamper legitimate commerce and social programs. Using examples from credit card processing to PPP loans, Patrick illustrates how different industries calibrate their tolerance for fraud based on their margins, mission, and societal role.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/fraud-choice-patrick-mckenzie–Sponsor: GiveWell | CheckSupport proven charities that deliver measurable results and learn how to maximize your charitable impact with GiveWell. First-time donors get $100 matched. Go to givewell.org (and type in "Complex Systems" at checkout).Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.–Links:Bits about Money, "The optimal amount of fraud is non-zero" https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/optimal-amount-of-fraud/Bits about Money, "The fraud supply chain" https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/the-fraud-supply-chain/ Dan Davies on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/5QKxzgumJXSQuaWCmYAoM9?si=AWkgvWEBSymrQNqpehg5tQ–Twitter:@patio11-Timestamps:(00:00) Intro (00:32) Origins of the essay and Dan Davies' influence(02:16) Fraud is a policy choice(04:56) The unique nature of fraud enforcement (07:54) Who pays for payment fraud?(12:55) Fraud as a necessary business expense(21:13) Sponsors: GiveWell & Check(27:43) Credit reports(29:19) Anti fraud loops used in online commerce(35:38) Different business tolerances for fraud(37:20) High vs low margin fraud strategies(41:40) Fraud in Benefit Systems and Pandemic Programs(43:29) Taxes(45:38) Fraud as an intended component(51:55) Wrap

This episode features Casey Rosenthal (Founder, Cirrusly.ai) and John Allspaw (Founder and Principal, Adaptive Capacity Labs), joining our hosts Steve McGhee and Jordan Greenberg. Together they discuss how resilience appears in Software Engineering and SRE and explore the importance of understanding the human factors involved in adapting to system failures—highlighting the need for a more qualitative and holistic approach to understanding how engineers successfully adapt to system behavior and improving overall reliability.

The debate over the reality of climate change is over. There is no place on land or sea that is immune from the effects of extreme weather, fire, flood, inundation, erosion, and social impacts. This week we're discussing carbon as the key culprit to our current condition, and the multitudinous methods and suggestions and investments to remove carbon from the atmosphere and the ocean. Is it possible we've made this all too complicated? Might the solutions be right there, in front of us, having already been discovered at the technological, political, and regulatory levels? What does it look like if we apply simplicity, imagination, collaboration, and energy to guide our way forward, toward solutions?World Ocean RadioSince 2010More than 730 episodesOcean is climate | Climate is ocean | The sea connects all thingsThe full catalog is searchable by themeWorld Ocean Radio: 5-minute weekly insights in ocean science, advocacy, education, global ocean issues, challenges, marine science, policy, and solutions. Hosted by Peter Neill, Director of the W2O. Learn more at worldoceanobservatory.org

In this captivating episode of Breaking Math, hosts Gabriel and Autumn dive deep into chaos theory—a fascinating branch of mathematics that explores the behavior of complex systems highly sensitive to initial conditions. They break down the butterfly effect, revealing how tiny variations can lead to major consequences and discuss the inherent unpredictability in weather forecasting and the financial markets. The episode also uncovers chaos theory's influence on human physiology, such as heart rate variability, and the mathematical beauty of fractals. Additionally, the hosts explore philosophical viewpoints, emphasizing how accepting life's uncertainties can foster adaptability and resilience.Key Takeaways:Chaos Theory: Small actions can trigger significant outcomes, impacting everything from nature to human-made systems.Butterfly Effect: Demonstrates how tiny differences in initial conditions can lead to vastly different outcomes.Weather Forecasting: An excellent real-world illustration of chaos theory, showing how unpredictable weather can be.Financial Markets: A reminder of the chaotic, complex forces that drive economic shifts and unpredictability.Human Physiology: Chaos theory sheds light on natural processes, like the variability of heart rhythms.Fractals: These intricate patterns showcase self-similarity and are visually striking examples of chaos in nature.Philosophical Implications: Embracing chaos and uncertainty equips us to be more adaptable and creative.Life's Unpredictability: A reflection of chaotic systems, reminding us to value flexibility. Interconnectedness: Understanding chaos theory enhances our appreciation of how interwoven our world truly is.Keywords: Chaos Theory, Butterfly Effect, Weather Forecasting, Economics, Fractals, Unpredictability, Complex Systems, Human Physiology, Philosophical Implications, Adaptability.Become a patron of Breaking Math for as little as a buck a monthFollow Breaking Math on Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, Website, YouTube, TikTokFollow Autumn on Twitter and InstagramFollow Gabe on Twitter.Become a guest hereemail: breakingmathpodcast@gmail.com

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by economist and fraud researcher Professor Jetson Luis-Leder to examine the systemic issues underlying government program fraud. Jetson and Patrick discuss healthcare fraud cases, including hospice eligibility manipulation and ambulance transport schemes, and other fraud practices against unemployment and the PPP program. The discussion reveals how institutional constraints, technological limitations, and policy design choices create opportunities for both beneficial and harmful rule violations. They also analyze the ROI of fraud prevention measures, the effectiveness of whistleblower incentives, and how bureaucratic systems can be redesigned to prevent abuse.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/defrauding-government-jetson-leder-luis–Sponsors: Check | WorkOSCheck is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network–Links:Jetson's website: https://sites.bu.edu/jetson/ Paper: Ambulance Taxis by Jetson Leder-Luis Ambulance Taxis: The Impact of Regulation and Litigation on Health Care Fraud Paper: Did FinTech Lenders Facilitate PPP Fraud by John M Griffin, Samuel Kruger, Prateek Mahajan https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3906395Paper: Is Fraud Contagious by John M Griffin https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4599654Paper: Unemployment Insurance Fraud in the Debit Card Market by Jetson Leder-Luis with Umang Khetan, Yunrong Zhou and Jialan Wang  https://www.nber.org/papers/w32527 Book: Recoding America by Jennifer Pahlka https://www.amazon.com/Recoding-America-Government-Failing-Digital-ebook/dp/B0B8644ZGYPodcast: Jennifer Pahlka on Ezra Kleinhttps://open.spotify.com/episode/2VPErCIG1pbcnYFBojrKcG Podcast: Dave Guarino on Odd Lots https://open.spotify.com/episode/43HI3NuxZGsl13U365xZxa Bits About Money https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/Related Complex Systems episodes: Dan Davies and Dave Guarino's episodes–Twitter:@patio11@jetson_econ–Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(02:04) Overview of Medicare/Medicaid(02:41) Estimated $50-100B fraud losses(03:31) Taxonomy of healthcare fraud(08:04) Hospice fraud; potentially saved money(16:33) A $10 billion asterisk: ambulances for dialysis patients(21:30) Sponsors: Work OS | Check(24:45) Complexities of fraud detection and prevention(39:02) Pandemic fraud (41:34) Findings on PPP loans fraud(48:19) Supply chain of fraud(52:06) Policy and enforcement challenges(01:08:32) Whistleblower programs (01:14:54) Final thoughts–Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/

Dr. Sanjeev Namjoshi, a machine learning engineer who recently submitted a book on Active Inference to MIT Press, discusses the theoretical foundations and practical applications of Active Inference, the Free Energy Principle (FEP), and Bayesian mechanics. He explains how these frameworks describe how biological and artificial systems maintain stability by minimizing uncertainty about their environment. DO YOU WANT WORK ON ARC with the MindsAI team (current ARC winners)? MLST is sponsored by Tufa Labs: Focus: ARC, LLMs, test-time-compute, active inference, system2 reasoning, and more. Future plans: Expanding to complex environments like Warcraft 2 and Starcraft 2. Interested? Apply for an ML research position: benjamin@tufa.ai Namjoshi traces the evolution of these fields from early 2000s neuroscience research to current developments, highlighting how Active Inference provides a unified framework for perception and action through variational free energy minimization. He contrasts this with traditional machine learning approaches, emphasizing Active Inference's natural capacity for exploration and curiosity through epistemic value. He sees Active Inference as being at a similar stage to deep learning in the early 2000s - poised for significant breakthroughs but requiring better tools and wider adoption. While acknowledging current computational challenges, he emphasizes Active Inference's potential advantages over reinforcement learning, particularly its principled approach to exploration and planning. Dr. Sanjeev Namjoshi https://snamjoshi.github.io/ TOC: 1. Theoretical Foundations: AI Agency and Sentience [00:00:00] 1.1 Intro [00:02:45] 1.2 Free Energy Principle and Active Inference Theory [00:11:16] 1.3 Emergence and Self-Organization in Complex Systems [00:19:11] 1.4 Agency and Representation in AI Systems [00:29:59] 1.5 Bayesian Mechanics and Systems Modeling 2. Technical Framework: Active Inference and Free Energy [00:38:37] 2.1 Generative Processes and Agent-Environment Modeling [00:42:27] 2.2 Markov Blankets and System Boundaries [00:44:30] 2.3 Bayesian Inference and Prior Distributions [00:52:41] 2.4 Variational Free Energy Minimization Framework [00:55:07] 2.5 VFE Optimization Techniques: Generalized Filtering vs DEM 3. Implementation and Optimization Methods [00:58:25] 3.1 Information Theory and Free Energy Concepts [01:05:25] 3.2 Surprise Minimization and Action in Active Inference [01:15:58] 3.3 Evolution of Active Inference Models: Continuous to Discrete Approaches [01:26:00] 3.4 Uncertainty Reduction and Control Systems in Active Inference 4. Safety and Regulatory Frameworks [01:32:40] 4.1 Historical Evolution of Risk Management and Predictive Systems [01:36:12] 4.2 Agency and Reality: Philosophical Perspectives on Models [01:39:20] 4.3 Limitations of Symbolic AI and Current System Design [01:46:40] 4.4 AI Safety Regulation and Corporate Governance 5. Socioeconomic Integration and Modeling [01:52:55] 5.1 Economic Policy and Public Sentiment Modeling [01:55:21] 5.2 Free Energy Principle: Libertarian vs Collectivist Perspectives [01:58:53] 5.3 Regulation of Complex Socio-Technical Systems [02:03:04] 5.4 Evolution and Current State of Active Inference Research 6. Future Directions and Applications [02:14:26] 6.1 Active Inference Applications and Future Development [02:22:58] 6.2 Cultural Learning and Active Inference [02:29:19] 6.3 Hierarchical Relationship Between FEP, Active Inference, and Bayesian Mechanics [02:33:22] 6.4 Historical Evolution of Free Energy Principle [02:38:52] 6.5 Active Inference vs Traditional Machine Learning Approaches Transcript and shownotes with refs and URLs: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/qj22a660cob1795ej0gbw/SanjeevShow.pdf?rlkey=w323r3e8zfsnve22caayzb17k&st=el1fdgfr&dl=0

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Moses Kagan, co-founder of Adaptive Realty, ReSeed, and Reconvene. Their deep dive into real estate investing and property management covers the different classes of apartment buildings, the challenges of property management, and the complexities of financing structures in the industry. They examine how the internet has transformed capital raising, the significance of cap rates, the effects of supply and demand on property values, and a comparison of the real estate markets in different major cities. The episode is in many ways a follow up to Patrick's conversation with Jim McKenzie and offers a window into the opaque world of real estate investment.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/real-estate-moses-kagan/–Sponsor: CheckCheck is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.–Links:Moses Kagan's blog: https://kagansblog.com/Reconvene Conference: https://www.reconvene.com/Seth Godin's book Permission Marketing: https://www.amazon.com/Permission-Marketing-Strangers-Friends-Customers/dp/0684856360Bits About Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/Jim McKenzie on Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6ocJirzGTStuf0K9ITM21X–Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:25) Understanding the stigma of the maligned landlord(04:07) Landlord spectrum: from mom-and-pops to institutional players(05:29) Inside Adaptive Realty(06:13) Owner vs. property manager(07:34) Challenges and complexities of property management(15:00) Capital stacks and loans(18:17) Sponsor: Check(26:25) The role of banks and underwriting in real estate(40:28) Federal subsidies and small scale landlords(44:26) Understanding commercial real estate classes(46:20) Challenges of Class C assets(47:13) Explaining cap rates(52:20) Raising equity for real estate deals(54:16) The syndication process(56:30) The role of brokers and execution risk(01:00:52) Legal structures and documentation(01:10:52) The power of networking and reputation(01:23:14) The impact of supply and demand on rents(01:28:03) Wrap

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Erik Torenberg, investor and the media entrepreneur behind Turpentine, explore the evolving relationship between tech journalism and the industry it covers. They discuss how fictional portrayals of industries greatly inform how jobseekers understand those industries, and how the industries understand themselves. They cover the vacuum in quality tech reporting, the emergence of independent media companies, and industry heavyweights with massive followings. Patrick also brings up the phenomenon of Twitter/Slack crossovers, where coordinated social media action is used to influence internal company policies and public narratives. They examine how this dynamic, combined with economic pressures and ideological motivations, has led to increased groupthink in tech journalism. Expanding on themes covered in Kelsey Piper's episode of Complex Systems, this conversation makes more legible the important ways media affects tech, even though tech is arguably a more sophisticated industry – and why there is a need to move beyond simplistic narratives of "holding power accountable" to provide nuanced, informative coverage that helps people understand tech's impact on society.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/tech-media-erik-torenberg–Sponsors: WorkOS | CheckBuilding an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-NetworkCheck is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to https://checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.–Links:Bits About Money, “Fiction and Finance” https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/fiction-about-finance/Byrne Hobart's essay on The Social Network https://byrnehobart.medium.com/the-social-network-was-the-most-important-movie-of-all-time-9f91f66018d7Kelsey Piper on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/33rHTZVowaq76tCTaKJfRB –Twitter:@patio11@eriktorenberg–Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:27) Fiction and Finance: The power of narrative(01:41) The Social Network's impact on career choices(03:34) Cultural perceptions and entrepreneurship(06:04) Media influence and tech industry perception(11:01) The role of tech journalism(14:15) Social media's impact on journalism(19:39) Sponsors: WorkOS | Check(21:54) The intersection of media and tech(39:22) Public intellectualism in tech(57:40) Wrap–Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/

The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Doug Abdiel "reverse-interviews" John Bicknell, the CEO|Founder of More Cowbell Unlimited and traditional Cognitive Crucible podcast host.  John discusses More Cowbell Unlimited's cognitive indicators and related technology that the US Army is prototyping in order to create effects, maintain Information Advantage, and compete globally. Recording Date: 26 Sept 2024 Research Question: John Bicknell suggests an interested student or researcher examine:  How can information professionals use complex system communication channel noise levels to improve goal pursuit? Resources: Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned #47 Yaneer Bar-Yam on Complex Systems and the War on Ideals #85 Josh Kerbel on Complexity and Anticipatory Intelligence #148 Kalev Leetaru on GDELT More Cowbell Unlimited YouTube: More Cowbell SNL Skit The Magical Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two: Some Limits on our Capacity for Processing Information by George A. Miller Maxwell's Demon and the Golden Apple: Global Discord in the New Millennium by Randall L. Schweller Where Is the Green Sheep? by Mem Fox and Judy Horacek Link to full show notes and resources Guest Bio: John Bicknell founded More Cowbell Unlimited to help America remain a beacon of hope and strength on the world stage. America must adopt Process Dominance as a core capability in order to innovate and survive in the Information Age. His vision is for process technologies to be as ubiquitous as processes are. John is a national security thought leader and passionate analytics visionary. He has written extensively on national security matters related to information warfare, critical infrastructure defense, and space situational awareness. John leads software and business development efforts for More Cowbell Unlimited. John is a retired Marine Corps officer who served worldwide. He led enterprise-level process-intensive human resources supply chain projects designed to discover inefficiencies, architect solutions, and re-purpose manpower savings. In his corporate career, he operationalized an Analytics Center of Excellence for a large EdTech firm, among other accomplishments. John is also Vice President for the Information Professionals Association and host of The Cognitive Crucible podcast. His Master's degree from the Naval Postgraduate School emphasizes econometrics and operations research. About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain. For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org. Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn. Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.

In this episode of Live Players, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja discuss the unique role of Palladium Magazine as a non-profit that promotes intellectual and cultural community-building. They highlight the magazine's focus on 'governance futurism' and the importance of creating new and inspiring thought while remaining non-partisan. They also explore the concept of functional elites and the need to rejuvenate cultural and intellectual scenes, with specific examples from San Francisco's dynamic environment. They also cover the broader social and political implications of modern tech-centric culture and its potential future trajectories. —

In this episode of Upstream, Erik Torenberg interviews Patrick McKenzie (patio11) about the intricacies of the financial system, focusing on banking, money laundering, and regulatory compliance. They discuss several of Patrick's essays from Bits About Money.  Patrick discusses the three stages of money laundering - placement, layering, and integration - and how the financial system has been deputized to act as law enforcement. The conversation touches on the unintended consequences of strict regulations, including their impact on economic growth and financial inclusion. —

Alex speaks with Ádám Lovász about the concept of spontaneous order, examining its philosophical roots in thinkers like Hayek and exploring its applications beyond human societies, including ecosystems and insect colonies, as well as its implications for understanding the limitations of technocratic control in both markets and ecological systems. References Adam's Author Page on Amazon Link: https://www.amazon.ca/stores/author/B00LXFHXN8/about?ingress=0&visitId=5dbd96f1-456d-41f2-a1e7-6d59eeaf6ca9&ref_=ap_rdr "The Constitution of Liberty" by Friedrich Hayek Link: https://www.amazon.ca/Constitution-Liberty-Friedrich-Hayek/dp/0226320847 "The Sensory Order" by Friedrich Hayek Link: https://www.amazon.ca/Sensory-Order-Friedrich-Hayek/dp/0226320944 "The Wealth of Nations" by Adam Smith Link: https://www.amazon.ca/Wealth-Nations-Adam-Smith/dp/1505577128 "Anarchy, State, and Utopia" by Robert Nozick Link: https://www.amazon.ca/Anarchy-State-Utopia-Robert-Nozick/dp/0465097200 "Stigmergy and the Role of Insect Societies in Complex Systems" by Leslie Marsh Link: https://www.amazon.ca/Stigmergy-Insect-Societies-Complex-Systems/dp/XXXXX "The Road to Serfdom" by Friedrich Hayek Link: https://www.amazon.ca/Road-Serfdom-Fiftieth-Anniversary/dp/0226320553 Thanks to our patrons including: Amy Willis, Kris Rondolo, and Christopher McDonald. To become a patron, go to patreon.com/curioustask

In this episode of Complex Systems, Patrick McKenzie (aka @Patio11) is joined by Dave Guarino, a software engineer and policy wonk. They explore the complexities and challenges of public programs, focusing on SNAP aka CalFresh in California, where Dave was the founding engineer and then director. They discuss how society's complex preferences become policy, driving obviously bad UXes (like 200+ questions for an application) for structural reasons. Patrick and Dave debate structural issues within government agencies that lead to these inefficiencies, the lack of user-centric design, misaligned incentives, a “cavernous gap” in feedback loops, and surprisingly simple ways anyone can influence public policy and improve government systems.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/government-software-dave-guarino/–Sponsors: Check | WorkOSCheck is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network–Links:Dave Guarino's newsletter: https://daveguarino.substack.com/Dan Davies episode of Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOH–Twitter:@patio11@allafarce–Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:03) Complexity of naming government programs(03:45) How policy decisions are made(07:19) Why SNAP applications are so complex(14:17) Why no one stops overly complex applications(18:44) Political economy of different benefit programs(24:56) Sponsor: Check | WorkOS(26:13) Limited visibility into user experience(29:24) Lack of application completion rate tracking(35:27) Starting where you are(43:44) Challenges of modernizing legacy systems(48:35) Broken feedback loops in government(53:01) Tech's understanding of service design(57:07) Issues with improper payments methodology(1:04:45) Effective ways to influence policy(1:09:43) Increasing agency in government agencies(1:14:56) Getting niche policy ideas into circulation(1:18:04) Importance of frontline knowledge and user feedback(1:21:33) Improving government services(1:22:06) Wrap–Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/